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Speaker 1: Welcome back to Betting Pros's college football win total preview series.

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Speaker 1: I am your host, Thorneistrom, joined as always by the

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Speaker 1: godfather of recruiting, Mike Farrell of Mike Farrell Sports. Today

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Speaker 1: we're going to be talking about the acc and running

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Speaker 1: through our favorite win total bets. We have a lot

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Speaker 1: to get through, so without further ado, let's get right

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Speaker 1: into it. Let's start with the big boy. Let's start

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Speaker 1: with Clemson, who's been installed at nine and a half

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Speaker 1: wins by most books, although they have peaked up to

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Speaker 1: ten at a couple. The Clemson Tigers, Mike, who have

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Speaker 1: done a little bit of changing here in the offseason,

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Speaker 1: have a new offensive coordinator, a guy that helped TCU

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Speaker 1: get to the national title last year. Also have a

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Speaker 1: new quarterback who we got a peak at last year.

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Speaker 1: What do you think about the Clemson Tigers at that

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Speaker 1: nine and a half to ten win total.

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Speaker 2: I love nine and a half. I take the over

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Speaker 2: on that. I think they're going to win ten games minimum.

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Speaker 2: Ten's tough, you know, with ten you're talking eleven and

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Speaker 2: one and that's a little bit more difficult. You know,

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Speaker 2: you get that Florida State game, which is going to

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Speaker 2: be intriguing, but this is a loaded roster.

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Speaker 3: I mean I was going.

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Speaker 2: Through my position groupings, you know, for the ACC and

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Speaker 2: it just kept coming back to Clemson in depth at

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Speaker 2: every position.

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Speaker 3: You know, you worry about k club Nick.

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Speaker 2: He didn't look amazing last year, but the team got

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Speaker 2: to spark around him.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 2: It was clear that they played with a higher energy.

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Speaker 2: You know, they were tired of the DJU, you know,

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Speaker 2: just limited offense. And with Garrett Riley there, I think

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Speaker 2: you're going.

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Speaker 3: To see things opened up a little bit better. Willship,

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Speaker 3: he's amazing. They got a great one to two punch

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Speaker 3: at running back.

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Speaker 2: Wide receivers still aren't what we used to but good

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Speaker 2: and defensively they're loaded. So give me a definitive over

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Speaker 2: at nine and a half. At ten, I'm still leaning over,

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Speaker 2: but I would I would pass at ten.

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Speaker 3: I don't like that number.

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty close to where you're at. My systems win

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Speaker 1: total on Clemson is ten point four. So yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean I have tickets on the over at nine and

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Speaker 1: a half. At ten, that's where it gets to be

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a tighter decision. But I'd still

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Speaker 1: lean over at ten. I really like this team. The

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Speaker 1: upgrade from DJU to Club Nick is really big, and

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Speaker 1: I think the upgrade from Brandon Streeter to Garrett Riley

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Speaker 1: is really big too. And you already love the defense

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Speaker 1: up the middle. They're absolutely ridiculous between Tyler Davis Duke

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Speaker 1: playing next to him, and then Jeremiah Trotter and Barrett Carter.

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Speaker 1: They're just absolutely ludicrous there. So they can get back

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Speaker 1: to playing defense the way they have before. And we

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Speaker 1: already started to see the offensive improvement last year, even

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Speaker 1: with some of the struggles at DJU. They were one

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Speaker 1: hundredth in points per game the year before. They jumped

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Speaker 1: up to thirtieth last year, and then we started to

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Speaker 1: see what the offense could be with Clubnick once you

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Speaker 1: start to pass the ball a little bit better. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if he's Trevor Lawrence. I don't think he is,

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Speaker 1: but he's certainly a lot better passing the ball within

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Speaker 1: DJ Who's accuracy. Woll has just killed the offense and

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Speaker 1: bogged it down a bit over these last couple of years.

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Speaker 1: So we're definitely both going over on Clemson at that

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Speaker 1: nine and a half number. Now we're going to jump

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Speaker 1: to another team that has a nine and a half

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Speaker 1: number at and this one is uniform across all the sportsbooks.

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Speaker 1: The Florida State Seminoles a team who has been going

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Speaker 1: up up up here the last couple of years. Talent

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Speaker 1: level way up under Mike Norvell, and Mike this is

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Speaker 1: your area of expertise. Recruiting, Norvell has been absolutely killing

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Speaker 1: it there. Do you think that he has gotten this

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Speaker 1: thing up and running enough where they're going to be

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Speaker 1: at double digit wins this coming year?

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Speaker 2: So killing it now. But his first couple of years

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Speaker 2: recruiting were a bit pedestrian. He really made up for

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Speaker 2: that with the portal, adding weapons. I mean, they're really

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Speaker 2: loaded on offense.

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Speaker 3: I don't see.

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Speaker 2: And this is funny because I had an infamous tweet

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Speaker 2: a year ago heading into last season where I didn't

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Speaker 2: like the offense on paper. You know, Johnny Wilson hadn't

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Speaker 2: the merged Jordan Travis was the quarterback yet that we

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Speaker 2: saw last year. You know, they added so much in

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Speaker 2: the portal that made an immediate impact on that offense

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Speaker 2: that now it looks unstoppable. Defensively, you know, they got

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Speaker 2: some issues up front, you know, interior, defensive line, but

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Speaker 2: they have the edge guys. Again, They've addressed a lot

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Speaker 2: of things in the portal, linebacker, defensive back solid. The

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Speaker 2: defense is the only question mark I have. But I'm

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Speaker 2: going over nine and a half. I like that number.

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Speaker 2: They should win ten even if they lose to Clemson,

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Speaker 2: they should win the other games because they're just the

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Speaker 2: roster is just so ridiculously loaded.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm I'm at ten point three wins with Florida State,

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Speaker 1: so I'm definitely going over that. That nine point five

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Speaker 1: number as well. You have seventeen returning starters on a

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Speaker 1: team that was was good last season, and you mentioned

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Speaker 1: how well they did in the portal. It wasn't as

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Speaker 1: much of the quantity approach of a team like the

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Speaker 1: aforementioned Colorado Buffalo is, but a qual he approach. Norvell

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Speaker 1: only signed ten guys in the portal this offseason. Eight

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Speaker 1: of them were four stars. Those guys are gonna be

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Speaker 1: the ones that are coming in and contributing immediately. And

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Speaker 1: he targeted the very few positions where they had holes

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Speaker 1: at So, I mean, like and the depth of this

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Speaker 1: semi you look throughout the too deep now they have

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Speaker 1: depth everywhere and he I don't know how he got

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Speaker 1: some of these guys to return, like Jared Vers and

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Speaker 1: some of those different guys. But however, he did it.

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Speaker 1: Good on him. This seems absolutely loaded. Can't wait for

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Speaker 1: the ACC title game when invariably Clemson's going to meet

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Speaker 1: up with Florida State. This league has gotten a lot better.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, and you know, in the first game, the

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Speaker 1: Florida State LSU rematch, I can't wait for that in

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Speaker 1: Week one, but definitely going over there. And those are

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Speaker 1: the two games that, by the way, for Florida State

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Speaker 1: that I have them as underdogs in this season. My

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Speaker 1: system two point seven point adjusted underdog against LSU and

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Speaker 1: that opener three point four point adjusted underdog against Clemson

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Speaker 1: in Week four. The rest of the games system has

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Speaker 1: Florida State favored by at least six point eight game

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Speaker 1: six point eight points in the other ten games on

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Speaker 1: the schedule. So that's why I'm going over that nine

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Speaker 1: and a half number, Mike. Let's let's go down the

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Speaker 1: pecking order now. You know, obviously you have your one

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Speaker 1: two in the ACC and then you're gonna drop down

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Speaker 1: a little bit to some teams that have a little

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Speaker 1: bit more flaws. North Carolina a team where you have

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Speaker 1: the top three potential draft pick in Drake May. But

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Speaker 1: then you got some questions. The defense has been crappy

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Speaker 1: here that these last couple of years. I don't know

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Speaker 1: how much better it can get. In one year, played

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Speaker 1: a little bit better down the stretch for Jean Jizzic.

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Speaker 1: Last year. They have a new offensive coordinator now that

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Speaker 1: Longo left for for Wisconsin. We'll see how Chip Lindsay

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Speaker 1: can do this this coming year. UNCS win total is

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Speaker 1: eight and a half at the Sports Bucks. What do

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Speaker 1: you think about UNC and are you going over or

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Speaker 1: under that total?

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Speaker 3: I'm going under. I like Mac Brown, you know. I

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Speaker 3: think he's a great coach, smart guy.

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Speaker 2: I like Drake May. You know, I like him better

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Speaker 2: as a pro than Caleb Williams. One of the few

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Speaker 2: guys that actually feels that way because he's you know,

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Speaker 2: Caleb is a little bit better improvising, but not much.

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Speaker 2: And people look at Caleb Williams and they see, you know,

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Speaker 2: a potential scrambling quarterback. Drake means a better runner. You're

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Speaker 2: just taller and bigger and you don't expect it. So

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Speaker 2: he's got a lot of Trevor Lawrence qualities to him.

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Speaker 2: From throwing the passing, they're gonna be okay. On offense,

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Speaker 2: they're gonna put up points. That defense is bad. I

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Speaker 2: don't know if it's going to get better. They actually

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Speaker 2: lost more than they gained in the portal. You know,

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Speaker 2: it has to improve, you know, just like we talked

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Speaker 2: last time about Tennessee.

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Speaker 3: It has to get better. It's so bad.

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Speaker 2: But can I get better enough to consistently put a

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Speaker 2: nine to three seasons together?

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Speaker 3: Not for me.

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Speaker 2: I'm eight and four at best for these guys because

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Speaker 2: I don't trust the defense.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this one will be a pass for me. I'm

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Speaker 1: right around that eight and a half number, like, like

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Speaker 1: literally right around it. So I just don't see a

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Speaker 1: ton of value here. And I think they're kind of

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Speaker 1: a high variance team, right, Like, I mean, their defense

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Speaker 1: was almost so bad you expect improvement. It's almost only

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Speaker 1: one way to go. But yeah, you're totally right, Like

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Speaker 1: some of their better to defenders at least on paper,

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Speaker 1: actually left in the portal, and so it's like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: you sort of expect improvement, but it's like, well, some

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Speaker 1: of the better guys left, so you're wondering about that.

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Speaker 1: And then they're obviously led by the offensive foot but

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Speaker 1: then the offensive guru just walked out the door, and

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Speaker 1: you know, you tend to be like, well, Drake May

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Speaker 1: will just sort of band aid over that. But at

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Speaker 1: the end of last season, I see where they started

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Speaker 1: to drop eight defenders against him in the coverage every

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Speaker 1: time he dropped back, Like every defensive coordinator turned into

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Speaker 1: Barry Otam against Drake May, and it actually started slowing

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Speaker 1: him down. And it started to get me to think

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Speaker 1: about the previous quarterback there, Sam Howell, where that discombobulated

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Speaker 1: him his last year. You remember Sam Howell going into

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Speaker 1: his last season at UNC. Everyone thought that guy was

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Speaker 1: a top ten pack everyone in their mother and then

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Speaker 1: they started dropping eight guys on him every single time.

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Speaker 1: He went from a consensus top ten pick to a

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Speaker 1: fifth rounder. I'm not saying that that's gonna be Drake May,

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Speaker 1: but now you have a new offensive coordinator. Now defensive

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Speaker 1: coordinators know the U struggle a little bit when he

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Speaker 1: dropped eight guys back. That's a question he's gonna have

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Speaker 1: to answer all season. And by the way, he just

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Speaker 1: lost his projected number one receiver when he was going

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Speaker 1: to have a brand new new faces on offense. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: the guy's catching his passes. The kid that they had

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Speaker 1: brought him from ken State that looked so good in

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Speaker 1: the spring that the NCAA initially had said, yeah, you're cleared.

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Speaker 1: Now they're revoking his eligibility because they said he's transferred twice.

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Speaker 1: They decided to change the rule even though he didn't

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Speaker 1: play at one of the schools. The NCAA, we know

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Speaker 1: and love, has decided that now they're going to play

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Speaker 1: Cowboys again with the eligibility roles. We'll see if mac

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Speaker 1: Brown could get that thing turned around. But Drake may

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Speaker 1: might have just lost his wide receiver one for the season.

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Speaker 1: So there's a lot of questions there. I can't go

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Speaker 1: under or over. I just got to pass on that one.

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Speaker 3: Mike.

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Speaker 1: Another one where I'm I'm right around there with this

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Speaker 1: one too. It's a win down from there at seven

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Speaker 1: and a half. But the Miami Hurricanes are another team

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Speaker 1: where for different reasons where I'm just like, I don't

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Speaker 1: really know which way to go. What about you, Like,

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Speaker 1: what do you say about the Miami Hurricanes at a

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Speaker 1: seven and a half win total out there in Vegas?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so seven and a half is a little bit

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Speaker 2: high for me. This is a team that had a

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Speaker 2: losing record last year. You know, I don't think they've

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Speaker 2: improved their roster that much. We've got a quarterback question

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Speaker 2: with Tyler Van Dyke. Is he going to be the

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Speaker 2: Tayler Van deck we saw before or you know, is

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Speaker 2: this the guy who was injured last year and struggled.

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Speaker 2: They still haven't addressed their wide receiver issues. You know,

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Speaker 2: there's questions whether Mario chris Ball is a good game

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Speaker 2: coach or not.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if that's true. We're going to find

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Speaker 3: out the.

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Speaker 2: Schedule doesn't set up. I would take the under on that.

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Speaker 2: I'm not saying they're gonna have a losing season again.

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Speaker 2: There will be slight improvements, but I'm not ready to

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Speaker 2: say that this team is is going to be, you know,

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Speaker 2: anything close to eight four, nine and three. I'll see

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Speaker 2: it when I believe it. He's done a good job recruiting,

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Speaker 2: but they're going to be young in some aspects. And

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Speaker 2: they've done an okay job of the portal. But you know,

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Speaker 2: this was a bad football team. They lost to Middle

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Speaker 2: Tennessee State and it wasn't even close. There's so many

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Speaker 2: weaknesses on that defense that they're going to get better,

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Speaker 2: but how much better?

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Speaker 3: I don't trust them, so I'm going.

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Speaker 1: Under Yeah, it's and it's hard to after last year, right,

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Speaker 1: Like you know, I don't know where you were at

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Speaker 1: Miami in the preseason last year, but I was pretty

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Speaker 1: high on I'm heading into the year just from the

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Speaker 1: you know, the personnel they had on hand and obviously

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Speaker 1: greatly underwhelmed. This year, you have nineteen guys returning who

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Speaker 1: have starting experience, and I liked what they did theoretically

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Speaker 1: in the offseason. Christoball at least, you know, sort of

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Speaker 1: publicly admitted that he made mistakes with his coordinator hires.

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Speaker 1: He gets rid of Gaddis. I like that decision he

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Speaker 1: brings in Shannon Tassa, and I like that decision in

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Speaker 1: two because you know, you think about it, and Dawson

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Speaker 1: is a really good schematic fit. I would think with

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Speaker 1: Tyler Vandyke, if you want to squeeze the last bit

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Speaker 1: out of Tyler Van Dyke and do one last run

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Speaker 1: at getting the potential out of him, that's the kind

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Speaker 1: of guy that I would want. You sit Van Dyke

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Speaker 1: back there, you put him in an air raid system,

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Speaker 1: and then you know, we know that they have athletes

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Speaker 1: out there. They brought in some receivers in the portal.

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Speaker 1: Now they have speed out there. I think that that

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Speaker 1: could work. We don't know. I mean, if Tyler van

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Speaker 1: Dyke plays like he did last year, it ain't gonna work.

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Speaker 1: But Tyler van Dyke was banged up last year, so

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Speaker 1: you cross your fingers that he stays healthy this year

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Speaker 1: and that system theoretically should work, especially because they're gonna

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Speaker 1: have more health hopefully again crossing your fingers. On the

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Speaker 1: offensive line, Zion Nelson is the guy we were really

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Speaker 1: excited for last year and then we didn't get to

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Speaker 1: see him right. He was on milk cartons all year

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Speaker 1: because because he was injured. Hopefully you have him back.

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Speaker 1: And then Mike, some of those true freshmen they brought

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Speaker 1: in that we've been hearing about. The one kid, Mike

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Speaker 1: what's his name, is it mal Luga or Maloga.

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Speaker 3: I don't think he's ready, think he's ready.

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Speaker 1: I've seen him as a projected starter.

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Speaker 3: On Well, this is the thing.

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Speaker 2: They brought in a couple of five star offensive tackles,

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Speaker 2: and people think offensive tackles and well, you know, they

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Speaker 2: could play guarter tackle.

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Speaker 3: They think they're plug and play I just don't know.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they're going to be good. The projection is good,

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Speaker 2: but to start Power five day one and rely on that,

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Speaker 2: I just that's my issue.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: Chris Paul's a great offensive line recruiter. He did a

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00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:39,359
Speaker 2: great job developing guys at Oregon. He obviously has the

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Speaker 2: most amazing offensive line resume when he was at Alabama.

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Speaker 2: But that's one of my issues is this is going

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Speaker 2: to be a young football team at certain positions, and

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Speaker 2: there's growing pains with that. So he's good, don't get

294
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Speaker 2: me wrong, but is an offensive lineman ready to step

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Speaker 2: in and be a starter right away, especially when you're

296
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Speaker 2: playing you know, some of these ACC teams that have

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Speaker 2: you know, tremendous edge rushers.

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure.

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Speaker 1: I feel like Miami like they're not going to be

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Speaker 1: close to this number. I feel like they either clear

301
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Speaker 1: it by two and a half or they go under

302
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Speaker 1: by two. They're either a beautiful disaster again they miss

303
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Speaker 1: another bowl game and then maybe Chris Ball's even gone,

304
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Speaker 1: or else, like they just roar back and and they're

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Speaker 1: you know, like a double digit win team. But like,

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Speaker 1: I don't my number is, like I said, right around

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Speaker 1: this seven and a half number. But I don't think

308
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Speaker 1: they end up finishing right around there. That's just sort

309
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Speaker 1: of splitting the baby on the projection. They have all

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Speaker 1: the talent to be a double digit win team, but

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Speaker 1: they absolutely could be what they were last year again

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Speaker 1: if multiple of these things crop up again. You have

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Speaker 1: the bad play calling with the injury woes again in conjunction, well.

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Speaker 3: Just have two new coordinators as well.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you've got coaching changes and all that stuff,

316
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Speaker 2: and I think this is a you know, four year

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Speaker 2: reclamation project for him. But the f I already think

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Speaker 2: he's a failure and everybody's making fun of the season

319
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Speaker 2: last year and all that stuff. He's not in danger

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Speaker 2: of being on any hot seat whatsoever. He's got a

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Speaker 2: guarantee contract. He's going to be there for I believe

322
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Speaker 2: ten years possibly, you know. But I just don't see

323
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Speaker 2: the ability to take a precipitous move upwards when you're

324
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Speaker 2: bringing in two new coordinators, a bunch of young guys,

325
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Speaker 2: and you don't have a ton of talent on the roster.

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Speaker 2: I mean, when he arrived there, the offensive defensive lines

327
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Speaker 2: were bad by Miami standards. The wide receivers were probably

328
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Speaker 2: the worst wide receiver group since Schnellenberger horribly, you know,

329
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Speaker 2: before he rebuilt the program horrible. So there's just so

330
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Speaker 2: many issues that have to be done here. And people think, oh, Mario, Chris, Paul,

331
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Speaker 2: Miami Guy, Miami lum has success at Oregon, it's Gusts

332
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Speaker 2: at Alabama. He's going to be he should be ten

333
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Speaker 2: and two. They're not ready for that yet. So I'm

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Speaker 2: under with you as well. I'm so convinced that it's

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Speaker 2: going to be either five and seven or nine and three.

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Speaker 2: I think they might go seven and five, but I don't.

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Speaker 3: Trust the number, you know, so I'm going to say

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Speaker 3: I'm going to say under.

339
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Speaker 1: So let's go from a program that that might be

340
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Speaker 1: trepidacious about their cards to a program that is in

341
00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:22,400
Speaker 1: full honeymoon phase with theirs. The Louisville Cardinals obviously brought

342
00:16:22,400 --> 00:16:25,120
Speaker 1: back native sun Jeff brom Over over the off season.

343
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Speaker 1: They have a win total where I think if people

344
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Speaker 1: are just checking the checking them out like casual fans

345
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,120
Speaker 1: right now, they might get some sticker shock at how

346
00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:35,920
Speaker 1: high this thing is. It's it was at eight at

347
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Speaker 1: a lot of Bucks just just recently, and it still

348
00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:40,360
Speaker 1: has that a lot of them but I seen one

349
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Speaker 1: earlier today it's at eight and a half. So I mean,

350
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Speaker 1: like this thing keeps going up. Earlier this you know,

351
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Speaker 1: when it opened earlier this offseason, you were seeing them

352
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Speaker 1: more in the sevens and this thing just keeps getting better. Up,

353
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Speaker 1: Bet up, Bet up. But Mike, between eight eight and

354
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Speaker 1: a half with the Louisville Cardinals and Jeff Brom's first season,

355
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Speaker 1: we'll talk about this schedule here in a bet. It's

356
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,560
Speaker 1: not hard Bromcotta right in his first season. What do

357
00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:06,600
Speaker 1: you think about the Louisville Cardinals with that win.

358
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Speaker 3: Total eight, I don't like eight. I would pass on

359
00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:11,920
Speaker 3: eight eight and a half.

360
00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:14,600
Speaker 2: I would take the under, just because of the transition

361
00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:17,960
Speaker 2: that has to occur. Obviously, he's got his quarterback back.

362
00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:20,880
Speaker 3: You know that he you know, worked with it per Due,

363
00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:22,480
Speaker 3: and there's talent on this team.

364
00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:25,400
Speaker 2: Thrashes one of the best wide receivers nobody has heard

365
00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:29,280
Speaker 2: of and knows about. And the defense they're starting to

366
00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:33,760
Speaker 2: recruit and they were under Saderfield South Florida speed, So

367
00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:35,880
Speaker 2: they're going to be fast, they're going to be physical,

368
00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:37,880
Speaker 2: and we saw flashes of it last year.

369
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Speaker 3: I mean, remember when his job was on the line.

370
00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:41,840
Speaker 3: You know, he ran off.

371
00:17:42,040 --> 00:17:44,479
Speaker 2: I think it was three very impressive wins and they

372
00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:48,600
Speaker 2: started to play together. This is also this is a

373
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:50,399
Speaker 2: sleeping Giant type of team, but not in.

374
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Speaker 3: The year one for him.

375
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Speaker 2: You know, they lost their coach, but they kind of

376
00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,280
Speaker 2: punted them out the door because they told him your

377
00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:03,000
Speaker 2: win total has to be us you know, eight or

378
00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:05,439
Speaker 2: nine next season. I'm not sure exactly what the number was,

379
00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:09,919
Speaker 2: and he obviously took the cushier route to Cincinnati, but

380
00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:12,479
Speaker 2: as a good, you know, bounce back, they went out

381
00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,919
Speaker 2: and got their native son. He's going to be very

382
00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:16,600
Speaker 2: good at Louisville. They're going to be a very good

383
00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:21,240
Speaker 2: football team. I just the schedule's easy, but I'm not

384
00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:26,040
Speaker 2: putting my money on eight and I'm not going nine.

385
00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:27,800
Speaker 2: This team is not going to go nine and three,

386
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:28,680
Speaker 2: So I'm on the under.

387
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:34,080
Speaker 1: So I do. I do like the over eight eight

388
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:36,679
Speaker 1: and a half. That's where it becomes a pass for

389
00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:41,399
Speaker 1: me personally. My systems win total on Louisville was eight

390
00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:45,880
Speaker 1: points six, so like at the eight point five number,

391
00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:48,719
Speaker 1: I got to stay away. But getting that protection of

392
00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,840
Speaker 1: the push at eight and four, that's what makes it

393
00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,359
Speaker 1: fine for me to bet it there. You look at

394
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:57,320
Speaker 1: this schedule, it's so frigging easy. It's hard for me

395
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Speaker 1: to find five losses on there that like, Okay, let's

396
00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:03,960
Speaker 1: go through it really quick. You got Georgia Tuck in

397
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,480
Speaker 1: the opener. That's a W. Then you got Murray State,

398
00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:09,240
Speaker 1: that's a W. Then you got the Corps of Indiana

399
00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:11,119
Speaker 1: in the third game. That's a dub. Then you got

400
00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,199
Speaker 1: Boston College. Mike, if I set a loss yet, so

401
00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:16,439
Speaker 1: you got a FO. You got a four oh September.

402
00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,240
Speaker 1: Then you got an away game at Boston College. I

403
00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:21,199
Speaker 1: think it's fair to call that a coin flip, Like

404
00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:23,760
Speaker 1: my system's got that as a pick them. Then you

405
00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:26,159
Speaker 1: got a home game against Notre Dame that could be

406
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,040
Speaker 1: your first loss, but they're probably gonna be seven to

407
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:29,880
Speaker 1: seven and a ha half point underdogs in that one.

408
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,400
Speaker 1: Then you got an away game against the Nard Dog

409
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh. I gotta have Louisville as a two point

410
00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:38,359
Speaker 1: favorite in that game in pit I think that's fair.

411
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:41,120
Speaker 1: Home game against Duke I got Louisville is a five

412
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:46,640
Speaker 1: point favorite. Home game against Virginia Tech seventeen point favorite Louisville.

413
00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,280
Speaker 1: Then a home game against Virginia seventeen and a half

414
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:52,240
Speaker 1: point of justin favored by my system, then away at

415
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:56,440
Speaker 1: Miami three point underdog, and then a home game at

416
00:19:56,840 --> 00:20:00,960
Speaker 1: against Kentucky where it's a coin flip. It's hard to

417
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 1: get to seven and five there, So I just think

418
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,720
Speaker 1: at the eight you have the protection. I do think

419
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 1: Louisville is going nine to three this year, like if

420
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:10,240
Speaker 1: I had to say, but like eight and four, nine

421
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:13,640
Speaker 1: and three. So between those two things, that's where at

422
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:15,640
Speaker 1: eight and a half, I just think you can find

423
00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:18,040
Speaker 1: better value on the board. So that's where I get

424
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,639
Speaker 1: a little skittish there. But at the eight, I'm fine

425
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,680
Speaker 1: with that one. Mike. Just a couple that will group

426
00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,800
Speaker 1: really quickly, not as sexy teams, but these were three

427
00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 1: of the under tickets that I'm holding in my pocket,

428
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,440
Speaker 1: so I thought we just hit them quick closing out

429
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 1: this conference. The three that I have Mike Pitt, which

430
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 1: you can find at six and a half or seven

431
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:41,080
Speaker 1: depending on the book that you shop at, Virginia Tech

432
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,320
Speaker 1: five and a half. That might be my favorite under

433
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,879
Speaker 1: in this conference. And if it's not, then it's because

434
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:50,160
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech is they're at four and a half. Any

435
00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 1: of those teams that you want to talk about, have

436
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 1: at it.

437
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,840
Speaker 2: I like pit Over. I really respect them as I do.

438
00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:00,359
Speaker 2: I really respect them as a coach. He always out

439
00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 2: a couple of wins that you don't expect. Now, Pitt fans,

440
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,359
Speaker 2: you know, every fan base is spoiled and they want more.

441
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:11,359
Speaker 2: But you know, they lost a lot on defense, and

442
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:14,399
Speaker 2: they always tend to replenish. The defense always tends to

443
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:15,160
Speaker 2: play strong.

444
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:17,639
Speaker 1: You know.

445
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 2: Obviously you've got some quarterback situations. The offense could be iffy.

446
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:26,640
Speaker 2: But I just feel Nardoozi is a guy you said

447
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 2: six and a half, right.

448
00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:30,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, six and a half or seven depending on where

449
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:30,720
Speaker 1: he's a.

450
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 2: Seven and five guy at worse. So I like Pitt

451
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 2: just based on the coaching staff and the fact that

452
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 2: he's been consistently over that number. You know, Virginia Tech

453
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:41,640
Speaker 2: is way under.

454
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:44,679
Speaker 3: I like Pry. I think he's a good guy. I

455
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 3: think he's a Beamer disciple.

456
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 2: I think maybe if given time, he'll get it right there,

457
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 2: but right.

458
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 3: Now he won't.

459
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:56,680
Speaker 2: And then you've got here, Georgia Tech. You got to

460
00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 2: go under four and a half.

461
00:21:58,280 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 3: You just have to under.

462
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with that. Yeah, I mean, starting with

463
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 1: Pat that of the three that's probably the one I'm

464
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,639
Speaker 1: least competent, but I got them at six point two.

465
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 1: So I mean, if you can find that seven out there,

466
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 1: that's someone right shaded under it at six and a half,

467
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 1: I pass on that one, but you mentioned it. It's

468
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 1: just because they lost so much. But you know, you

469
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 1: are starting to trust Nardoozy Moore because he's done it

470
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 1: so often by many. They lost a lot, and they've

471
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 1: lost a lot these last couple of years. We'll see

472
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:29,359
Speaker 1: if you can replend your shirt again.

473
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 2: But you know, the line is what's tricky to me,

474
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 2: you know, like that it is we can't see.

475
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 3: But every year.

476
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 2: Somebody comes out of somewhere that you wouldn't expect and

477
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 2: has a great year on that defensive line every year

478
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 2: for sure. And so when I questioned it, you know,

479
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 2: and I always do question it, you know, pitt fans

480
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,640
Speaker 2: are always like, you know, we trust our coaches, We're

481
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:51,679
Speaker 2: going to develop guys.

482
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:53,959
Speaker 3: And so I wrote an article.

483
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 2: I think it was even an over under about Pitts

484
00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 2: sack total, because they've been very good in sacks over

485
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,639
Speaker 2: the last many years, up amongst the nation's leaders. And

486
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 2: I went in under and I got a couple of

487
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 2: dms from some coaches thanking me for that on the

488
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 2: pit staff. They think they're going to be a ferocious

489
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 2: defensive line as usual, and I've doubted that for a

490
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 2: couple of years and I'm not going to doubt it anymore.

491
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 2: So that's where we, you know, differ a little bit

492
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:25,160
Speaker 2: as far as I know.

493
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 3: What your concern is.

494
00:23:26,080 --> 00:23:27,480
Speaker 2: I know when you say they lost a lot of

495
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 2: the first thing you look at the defensive line.

496
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 3: I think they're going to be okay.

497
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 2: So if he goes six and six, I'd be stunned.

498
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,199
Speaker 2: He's not that coach. Seven and five to him is

499
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 2: not a great year. But I think that's a minimum

500
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 2: for me. So we disagree on that one a little bit.

501
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,360
Speaker 2: But you know, we agree on the under Virginia Tech

502
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 2: and Georgia Tech. I mean, they really don't have a

503
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 2: shot to get over those numbers.

504
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 3: I don't think.

505
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:52,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Virginia Tech under might be my favorite bet

506
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 1: of this whole conference, but you know they're at five

507
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 1: and a half. To me, that's only on name recognition.

508
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 1: My systems win total on them is three point four.

509
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:06,639
Speaker 1: I think that team stinks. They like you know, last

510
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,719
Speaker 1: year they were sunk by the fact that they couldn't

511
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 1: move the ball at off on offense. I know Brent Prior,

512
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,680
Speaker 1: he a defensive guy, and you know, it's like, you know,

513
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,199
Speaker 1: you mentioned you know he you know, uh uh, you

514
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 1: know came from Beamer Ball and Beamer Ball and Foster. Yeah, yeah,

515
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 1: And it was like, oh, you know, like if if

516
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 1: Bud Foster had gotten a job earlier, head coaching job,

517
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,159
Speaker 1: earlier in life, you know, I'm Brent Prye, that that

518
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,359
Speaker 1: would be me. But like, and I get the emphasis

519
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 1: on defense and special like I get it, it's great,

520
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 1: but like, your offense was so terrible last year and

521
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,399
Speaker 1: Grant Wells sunk you, and and the fact that your

522
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,399
Speaker 1: offensive line stunk. You couldn't run the ball, and in

523
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 1: this portal season there was all these starting caliber quarterbacks

524
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 1: out there. You signed friggin Kyron Drones. I've seen Kyroen

525
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:54,600
Speaker 1: Drones plays. He's not good. Like, the guy can't throw,

526
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:56,919
Speaker 1: He's not gonna scare any defensive with his arm. So

527
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 1: that's the guy you're putting up against Grant Wells.

528
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 2: And this is it's like Ali Jennings is coming over there,

529
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:03,640
Speaker 2: so that's gonna make a big difference in the pass.

530
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 3: It won't They don't have a quarterback.

531
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:09,159
Speaker 1: They they exactly they I like that. That was the

532
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 1: only thing in the portal. I liked what they did.

533
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,399
Speaker 1: They signed a couple good receivers, but they don't have

534
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 1: any quarterbacks to throw them the ball, and they have

535
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 1: the uninspiring running backs. Again, their offensive line is going

536
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 1: to struggle again. I just didn't know what they were doing.

537
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 1: There was all these these pretty solid quarterbacks out there

538
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 1: that I think would have accepted Virginia Tech's offer, and

539
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 1: then they just give that skulle to Kyron Drones. Kyrien Jones,

540
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 1: if you're listening, proved me wrong.

541
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:32,679
Speaker 3: Please.

542
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 1: I just don't think you can do it. So I'm

543
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 1: going under on them. I'm going under on Georgia Tech too.

544
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 1: I didn't like the hire where they were going after Fritz,

545
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 1: and then Fritz you know, leaves them at the you know,

546
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,719
Speaker 1: at the altar, because they were pushing them to accept

547
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,919
Speaker 1: that offer before the AAC title game and then they're like, oh, okay,

548
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:52,199
Speaker 1: well we'll just give it to the interim coach. Then

549
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,439
Speaker 1: it was like, you know Bill Stewart back in the

550
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 1: day with West Virginia. They hired what was that saying, Mike?

551
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 1: They they hired the painter to build the house us

552
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: never never a good idea. I'm not sure your opinion

553
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:05,400
Speaker 1: on Key, but I did not like.

554
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:07,479
Speaker 2: That, you know that they played with a little bit

555
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 2: more spirit. You know, we took over, but Jeff Dillons,

556
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 2: Jeff Collins is a good coach, and he couldn't get

557
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 2: it done. And I'm not sure he's the best coach ever.

558
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 2: But this isn't a precipitous upgrade anyway.

559
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 1: Could those four wins that Key had down the stretch

560
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 1: last year, they were all by five points or less.

561
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:29,680
Speaker 1: I think that was a little bit of a fluky

562
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 1: run that the mister Key had to get that job.

563
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 3: If I met, they don't have it.

564
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:37,719
Speaker 2: They don't have the talent to stack up. So you know,

565
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 2: three and nine, four and eight. Virginia Tech is going

566
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 2: to go four and eight at best, you know, and

567
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 2: Georgia Tech four and eight at best as well, So

568
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 2: you know, but most likely three and.

569
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 1: Nine exactly before we get to the PAC twelve, guys,

570
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,119
Speaker 1: let's take a quick break because we all need to

571
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 1: make a pact right now, including you, Mike Farrell, to

572
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 1: compete against each other in Betting Pros's College Football Picks

573
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 1: contest this season, which you guys can access at bettingpros

574
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 1: dot com slash college. But there's gonna be monthly giveaways

575
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,880
Speaker 1: and the season long winner gets a big prize, which

576
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:10,439
Speaker 1: I need to check with my boss if they'll give

577
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 1: it to me if I win. But I digress.

578
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:13,880
Speaker 3: I get that prize, they.

579
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 1: Probably won't give it to me. Join the group, and

580
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 1: your college football picks will be counted. Scoring is based

581
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 1: on ROI so making a killing this year, and you're

582
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 1: going to win our contest too. Join that contest. But guys,

583
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 1: that's all the time that we have for today, and

584
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 1: that's going to put a rap on our preseason series.

585
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 1: Make sure to circle your calendars for August twenty six,

586
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 1: which only eleven days away from when we're recording today.

587
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 1: I can't believe we're that close. Saturday, August twenty six,

588
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,440
Speaker 1: our very first live show of the year. Mike, you

589
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 1: can see this grin on my face. I can't wait

590
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 1: when Mike and I start doing our live shows on Saturdays,

591
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 1: bringing you guys through the entire slay to college football games,

592
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,600
Speaker 1: giving you our picks for all the day's games. Make

593
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 1: sure you come and check us out on our first

594
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 1: episode what we'll be doing our Maiden voyage on August

595
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,199
Speaker 1: twenty six, And if you missed any of our previous episodes,

596
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 1: the Big ten Notre Dame episode or the sec Big

597
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,360
Speaker 1: twelve episode, you can check those previews out on YouTuber

598
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 1: on the podcast feed, So you check out all that stuff,

599
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:17,200
Speaker 1: But until then, for Mike Farrell, I Thorne estram Let's

600
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 1: catch cash from tickets