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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Like a financial advisor, i'd be telling people just relax, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: take the long term. It'll be very good. I'm not

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Speaker 2: sure if that works. But somebody who does this stuff

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Speaker 2: for living, Sarah Ponzak, She's a senior vice president ubs

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Speaker 2: Private Wealth Management. She used to be here with us

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Speaker 2: and then she bailed on us with the Southern Florida.

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Speaker 2: So I just checked Miami Weather today eighty seven and

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Speaker 2: so oh so that's you, like, more power to you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah what I mean, it sounds like we live in

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Speaker 2: the seasons here. I don't know that. Sarah, Thank you

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Speaker 2: so much for joining us. Always appreciate getting a few

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Speaker 2: minutes of your time here. So what are the conversations

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Speaker 2: you're having with your UVS clients these days? I mean,

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Speaker 2: you see the markets whip around. They've seen, you know,

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Speaker 2: news just kind of move the market as it relates

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Speaker 2: to terrifs and trade policy and maybe things they haven't

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Speaker 2: really thought about too much in the past. What are

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Speaker 2: your conversations like with your clients.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's getting very toasty down here in South Florida,

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Speaker 3: so caerying up for the summer. And I think, based

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Speaker 3: off your statement, Paul, you would make a great financial.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm sure you're having those conversations too, but no,

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Speaker 1: I think it all seriousness.

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Speaker 3: Just think of the month that we just came off of,

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Speaker 3: the month of April. If you were someone as you

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Speaker 3: know the three of us are, who was watching the

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Speaker 3: markets every single day, every single moment, every single second,

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Speaker 3: checking futures first thing in the morning and first you know,

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Speaker 3: before bedtime, going to sleep, you pull your hair out.

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Speaker 3: You would drive yourself insane. And for many of our clients,

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Speaker 3: who are frankly longer term investors, they're not day traders.

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Speaker 3: You know, if you would have went to bed at

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Speaker 3: the beginning of April and woke up at the end,

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Speaker 3: you would have missed out on a whole lot of

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Speaker 3: indigestion and you could have relaxed and not driven yourself crazy.

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Speaker 3: And I think it's important to put the volatility in context.

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Speaker 3: Look at the end of the day, Yes, we are

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Speaker 3: witnessing a sea change, and we are going to see

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Speaker 3: changes to trade policy that could affect the economy, and

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Speaker 3: very well probably will affect the economy. But if you

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Speaker 3: put volatility into context and you think about the stock

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Speaker 3: market and how much volatility you typically witness as an investor,

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Speaker 3: I mean, since nineteen ninety eight, just to put some

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Speaker 3: numbers in front of you, we've seen nineteen years with

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Speaker 3: intry year drawdowns greater than ten percent, and yet in

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Speaker 3: twenty one of those twenty seven years, we finished the

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Speaker 3: year higher. Stocks finished the year higher. And if you

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Speaker 3: put that in percentage terms, because maybe that's easier to

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Speaker 3: visualize it, that's seventy percent of years we saw injury,

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Speaker 3: your draw greater than ten percent, and in eighty percent

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Speaker 3: of years of stock market finished the year higher. So

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Speaker 3: this is part of investing. I think Warren Buffett said

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Speaker 3: it very very well last weekend before announcing his retirement,

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Speaker 3: and he said, if you're someone who watching a fifteen

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Speaker 3: percent correction in the stock market makes you freak out,

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Speaker 3: maybe you need to, you know, reassess your investment philosophy,

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Speaker 3: because that's just part of being investor. Frankly, and many of.

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Speaker 4: Your clients are CEOs who do have operations in China.

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Speaker 4: What are they telling you? How are they being impacted?

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Speaker 4: Right now?

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Speaker 3: Their businesses are certainly being very impacted. We were actually

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Speaker 3: in New York last week visiting a few clients. I

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Speaker 3: wanted to come in to see you guys at Bloomberg,

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Speaker 3: but we just had back back back meetings and I couldn't,

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Speaker 3: unfortunately make it in. But you know, it's been really difficult.

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Speaker 3: I spoke with one client last weekend who's the CEO,

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Speaker 3: and they're in the clothing business and they import a

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Speaker 3: lot of goods, as you can imagine, from China, and

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Speaker 3: she said she just came off of the you know,

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Speaker 3: the most difficult few weeks of her life, and the company, frankly,

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Speaker 3: is facing paralysis. You know, we have one hundred and

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Speaker 3: forty five percent tariffs with China right now, and companies

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Speaker 3: can't operate in that environment. So it's over the next

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Speaker 3: few weeks, and I'm sure that you guys have had

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Speaker 3: many conversations where people have told you this, So over

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Speaker 3: the next few weeks, we're really going to start to

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Speaker 3: see the effects of that, and we're going to start

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Speaker 3: to see empty your shelves we're going to start to

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Speaker 3: see the effects of fewer you know, shifts coming into

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Speaker 3: US ports bringing in goods because no one really wants

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Speaker 3: to operate under a one hundred and forty five percent

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Speaker 3: tariff regime. What of the expectation we have negotiations in

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Speaker 3: Switzerland this weekend is that that's not going to be

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Speaker 3: the end goal. We are going to see progress move

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Speaker 3: at least in the right direction. No one knows what

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Speaker 3: that number is going to be at the end of

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Speaker 3: the day, But for you know CEOs and companies trying

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Speaker 3: to operate right now, it's really become impossible because they're

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Speaker 3: just waiting for some type of deal to be struck

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Speaker 3: or at least there to be movement to a lower

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Speaker 3: tear regime because no one can operate right now.

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Speaker 2: Sir, if your clients want to diversify, where do you

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Speaker 2: suggest they do that.

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Speaker 3: So I think this year has been a really great

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Speaker 3: opportunity to look overseas. It's the first time in a

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Speaker 3: long time that we're actually seeing international stocks outperform in

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Speaker 3: the United States. I don't think that means that you

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Speaker 3: need to completely dump the US And yes, there's been

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Speaker 3: a lot of talk about the end of US exceptionalism.

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure we're necessarily on the same page of that,

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Speaker 3: but still I do think it's good to make sure

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Speaker 3: that you're right sizing your portfolios and you do have

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Speaker 3: some exposure to international and you know, our team has

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Speaker 3: been increasing our exposure to international a bit. I also

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Speaker 3: think gold, even though we have seen quite the red

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Speaker 3: this year, still offers a nice hedge for the worst

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Speaker 3: case scenario. And having say, you know, a low mid

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Speaker 3: single digit exposure to gold in portfolios isn't a bad

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Speaker 3: idea either. And then bonds, you know, bonds. Yes, we're

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Speaker 3: also very volatile in April, but again, if you fellosy

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Speaker 3: for the beginning of April, we'll go. But at the end,

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Speaker 3: you know, you didn't seem nearly as much volatility as

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Speaker 3: you witnessed in FRA month, you know, based off of

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Speaker 3: all the headlines, and especially seeing as though you know,

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Speaker 3: our economists do expect that starting in September we could

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Speaker 3: see one hundred basis points of rape cuts from the

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Speaker 3: Federal Reserve. Although yes, that's it right now, we're very

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Speaker 3: much in a wait and see mode. As FED Chair Powell,

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Speaker 3: did you know reinsist this week? You know, that would

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Speaker 3: be something that would be reinvigorating to bonds. So to

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Speaker 3: bonds as well are a nice diversify if or someone

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Speaker 3: who's not comfortable with, you know, the ups and downs

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Speaker 3: of stock market volatility every day. And then I would

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Speaker 3: add one more two private markets, private equity, private credit,

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Speaker 3: private real estate. Even those are areas of the market

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Speaker 3: where you're not going to be witnessing good day to

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Speaker 3: day volatility of stocks, but you still might get you know,

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Speaker 3: equity like returns, so you know, looking to you know,

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Speaker 3: incorporate private markets into your portfolio if you're someone who

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Speaker 3: can handle the illiquidity of those types of investments.

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Speaker 4: At least, what's the top question you're getting from your

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Speaker 4: clients now?

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Speaker 3: What the heck is going on? You know, what should

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Speaker 3: we be doing? I think it's so interesting in April.

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Speaker 3: April was obviously a month in which we were talking

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Speaker 3: to clients every day. We were fielding multiple calls every

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Speaker 3: day because there was concern that has you know, ever

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Speaker 3: since we've seen the rally, that's very much calmed down,

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Speaker 3: which just I think is insight into investor sentiment right now.

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Speaker 3: People feel pretty comfortable after the latest equity rally. Everyone

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Speaker 3: wants to know what next, but unfortunately none of us

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Speaker 3: have you know, insight into the administration. There was a

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Speaker 3: headline that dropped this morning, you know, from President Trump

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Speaker 3: talking about eighty percent taraphrase. Maybe that's the best place

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Speaker 3: to be for China. I don't think anyone believes that's

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Speaker 3: really where we're going to end up, but everyone wants

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Speaker 3: to know what's coming next, and unfortunately known as a

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Speaker 3: crystal ball. And when we are operating an environment where

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Speaker 3: markets are so attuned to headlines in the day to day,

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Speaker 3: that's when you really have to focus on the long term.

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Speaker 3: Especially if it's a client who recently sold their business,

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Speaker 3: they had a large liquidity event. They're sitting on a

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Speaker 3: pile of cash, and how how do you deploy that?

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Speaker 3: What's the right strategy to get that invested and not

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Speaker 3: feel like you're paralyzed when the headlines are coming so

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Speaker 3: quickly and there's so many twists and turns in the

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Speaker 3: administration policies.

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Speaker 2: Sarah, thank you so much for joining us. Always appreciate

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Speaker 2: checking in with you. Sarah Ponzick good friend of Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: She's senior vice president UBS Private Wealth Management down there

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Speaker 2: in South Florida, getting it done.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch US Live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on

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Speaker 1: watch US Live YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Shane Sissel joins US CEO Banrion Capital is SHANEA. What

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Speaker 2: kind of conversations are you having with your clients today?

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Speaker 2: Are they glass half full people buying or glass half

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Speaker 2: empty people saying this THINGE could get even worse from here.

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Speaker 5: So under the caveat that, I don't deal necessarily with

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Speaker 5: individuals or even advisors that are looking broadly at markets.

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Speaker 5: I kind of deal with a subset of advisors who

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Speaker 5: really like to look at other ways to manage risk

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Speaker 5: and portfolios, specifically through alternative strategies. The vast majority of

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Speaker 5: the conversations I'm having are with advisors who are concerned

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Speaker 5: about continued volatility in the market and how they can

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Speaker 5: implement some risk management strategies using alternatives to kind of

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Speaker 5: bolster portfolios to ride through the volatility. And that's really

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Speaker 5: where our focus has been. But I think the takeaway

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Speaker 5: from that is that there's increased interest from advisors and

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Speaker 5: their clients and finding way to deal with what will

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Speaker 5: largely be an extended period of volatility because the administration

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Speaker 5: that is in power right now here is known for,

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Speaker 5: you know, making kind of vast decisions, pulling them back,

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Speaker 5: putting them back in, and I think that that doesn't

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Speaker 5: bode well for calm markets. And so that's the kind

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Speaker 5: of conversations we're having.

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Speaker 2: So in the world of alternatives, which I consider kind

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Speaker 2: of private equity, private credit, hedge funds that those types

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Speaker 2: of things, how how do alterners fit into that kind

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Speaker 2: of portfolio in the time of maybe higher uncertainty.

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Speaker 5: So most of our advisors are at first and foremost

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Speaker 5: looking at the easiest and quickest way to implement alternative

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Speaker 5: strategies into client portfolios. So that's through ETFs and mutual

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Speaker 5: funds and interval funds, mostly ETFs. At this moment, we

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Speaker 5: have a suite of clients that offer ETF solutions that

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Speaker 5: are hedge fund like and I think that that's kind

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Speaker 5: of the key here. Private equity, private credit, that's equity

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Speaker 5: and credit. At the end of the day, they may

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Speaker 5: not mark to market, but they are very much influenced

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Speaker 5: by what's going on in the public markets. For equity

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Speaker 5: and credit. But the hedge fund like strategies are doing

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Speaker 5: investment philosophies that are inherently diversifying and inherently about hedging

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Speaker 5: out risk, hence hedge fund. So there are ETF mutual

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Speaker 5: funds and interval fund strategies that implement those. And there

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Speaker 5: are things like BTL which is an equity market neutral fund, CBLS,

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Speaker 5: which is an actively managed long short equity fund, RDFI

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Speaker 5: which is closed down fund arbitrage MRSK. So these are

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Speaker 5: like hedge fund like strategies, and if you look at

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Speaker 5: how they've performed during this period, they've actually done extraordinarily

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Speaker 5: well and outperform the market. So implementing strategies that are

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Speaker 5: diversifying in client portfolios is how we manage risk during

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Speaker 5: bodol times.

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Speaker 2: Speaking with Shane Sissel, CEO at banryun Capital, Jess.

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Speaker 4: So, I actually to talk to you, Shana about your

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Speaker 4: view when it comes to retail. I know it we'll

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Speaker 4: have Walmart actually reporting earnings next week and we'll have

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Speaker 4: a home depot lows target the following week after that,

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Speaker 4: later in May. How are you viewing that? Because I

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Speaker 4: know Walmart in particular was trading more like a growth

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Speaker 4: stock before it's last earnings report. There are only a

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Speaker 4: couple of magazeven stocks that actually had done better than

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Speaker 4: that over twelve minutes span, like in Nvidia in some

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Speaker 4: others like that too in Tesla. But you know, how

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Speaker 4: do you view and how are you positioning when it

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Speaker 4: comes to retail shares.

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Speaker 5: So I'll start by saying that we have this very

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Speaker 5: weird dichotomy going on with the consumer here in the US,

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Speaker 5: where their confidence numbers are not great, and we're seeing

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Speaker 5: sentiment with consumers really being negative, but they're spending in

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Speaker 5: the retail actual spending numbers remain quite strong. So there's

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Speaker 5: this weird dichotomy there that makes it hard to kind

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Speaker 5: of predict how some of these retail names are going

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Speaker 5: to do. Now that said, a company like Walmart, you

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Speaker 5: got to look at that's a company that has some

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Speaker 5: pricing power, has the ability to kind of bully around

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Speaker 5: some of their suppliers. And if we continue to have

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Speaker 5: above average ERA, specifically with China, where a lot of

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Speaker 5: the goods, especially the lower cost goods that we have

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Speaker 5: here in the US, come from China, that's going to

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Speaker 5: be positive for something like Walmart. You would also intuitively

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Speaker 5: think that would be good for something like Target, but

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Speaker 5: Targets had some execution issues as of late, so it'll

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Speaker 5: be interesting to see how that plays out. But if

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Speaker 5: you look at some of the lower the lower the

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Speaker 5: retail sorry retail companies that are focused on the lower

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Speaker 5: income consumer, they have done well, but it's kind of

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Speaker 5: the middle of the pack names that have done best.

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Speaker 5: But I would I would think that if the terraiffs

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Speaker 5: stayed quite high. We haven't seen that come through in

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Speaker 5: the numbers yet because there was some pre ordering of

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Speaker 5: increasing inventories before tariffs took place. But I think as

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Speaker 5: that changes, you might see the middle income consumers start

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Speaker 5: to move into the Walmarts of the world, and that

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Speaker 5: would be positive for a name like Walmart. But you

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Speaker 5: have to be really particular where you pick your spots

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Speaker 5: in retail, because retail is a very large space and

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Speaker 5: it includes names like Nike and Adidas, under Armour and

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Speaker 5: some of the apparel brands, and those brands will be

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Speaker 5: disproportionately impacted by the tariffs. So I would probably stay

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Speaker 5: away from apparel brands, choose things of that nature, anything

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Speaker 5: that is manufactured overseas, specifically in China and focus more on,

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Speaker 5: like you said, like where you go to buy your

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Speaker 5: groceries and things of that nature, where people are going

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Speaker 5: to be wanting to save money because there's really no

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Speaker 5: way to avoid the tariffs and other essential areas.

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Speaker 2: Shana thanks so much for joining. Shane Sissel, she's the

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Speaker 2: CEO of band reyon Capital, offering her thoughts on these markets.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty Our.

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Speaker 2: Next Guess She's now popular. Heck Co part is Joanna

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Speaker 2: Diego's joined us. She's a partner bomb Blocks. Where do

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Speaker 2: you go? I mean, there's so much opportunity now in

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Speaker 2: fixed income joinna and your ETF structure has something for everybody,

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Speaker 2: it seems. Where are you seen to flows these days?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 6: I think where we want to focus people's attention on

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Speaker 6: is the income and fixed income. It's at historically high levels,

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Speaker 6: and that income is really offsetting all of this volatility

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Speaker 6: that we're seeing it's not twenty twenty two. So when

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Speaker 6: we entered twenty twenty two, rates were at all time

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Speaker 6: lows and they zoomed up in four hundred and fifty

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Speaker 6: basis points that year. So bonds were under pressure, equity

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Speaker 6: under pressure, and everybody was sort of figuring, like, couldn't

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Speaker 6: make sense of twenty twenty two because both bonds and

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Speaker 6: equities went down. So what it felt like was that

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Speaker 6: bonds weren't working for you. Well, now bonds are working

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Speaker 6: for you in your portfolio. They reclaimed their place as

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Speaker 6: you know, protection in your portfolio. And if you look

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Speaker 6: at what happened you know here to date and even

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Speaker 6: in April, the equity markets were down, but bonds, even

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Speaker 6: in some cases in some weeks where they were down,

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Speaker 6: they were protecting your portfolio. So we want people to

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Speaker 6: focus on the fact that bonds are working for you.

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Speaker 6: Income is really upsetting volatility. And then you know, we

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Speaker 6: think that the themes of resiliency and economic positivity are

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Speaker 6: still there and I'd love to tell you about it.

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Speaker 4: So what about when you're talking about short duration uish

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Speaker 4: treasuries versus other corners, when you're talking about investment grade corporates,

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Speaker 4: what are you seeing there.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, So one thing we want to remember is that

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Speaker 6: a lot of focus was on the tenure and all

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Speaker 6: the volatility we saw on the tenure. I think it

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Speaker 6: reversed itself over seven and a half percent in a week,

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Speaker 6: I think the second we of April. So people will

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Speaker 6: really nervous about the long side of the curve. And

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Speaker 6: since twenty twenty two we've seen lots of bouts of

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Speaker 6: volatility in the twenty year and the ten years. That's

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Speaker 6: what it's supposed to do. It's supposed to reflect the

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Speaker 6: uncertainty because it's a long dated bond. So people have

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Speaker 6: been going to the short side, to the six month

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Speaker 6: and one year because there's really attractive rates there. In April,

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Speaker 6: you know, they were over four percent.

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Speaker 3: They're not just a.

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Speaker 6: Place to park your cash there. They are the safe

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Speaker 6: haven of this of the treasury curve. What you want

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Speaker 6: to do is you want to be short interest rate risk.

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Speaker 6: So we recommend even in corporates that you should be

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Speaker 6: shortening your interest rate risk and shorten your duration. It's

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Speaker 6: it's okay to reach for corporates right now and get

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Speaker 6: into high quality corporate debt, even high yield corporate debt.

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Speaker 6: Benefit from the yields that are there, but take the

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Speaker 6: interest rate risk out. And so that's why we recommend

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Speaker 6: short corporate debt.

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Speaker 2: Where are you seeing the funds flow? Because you know

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Speaker 2: in your TF complex at bomb blocks, you guys have

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Speaker 2: something for everybody. It seems like where you're seeing the

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Speaker 2: fund flows, yes.

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Speaker 6: You're seeing you're seeing flows into into corporate debt. You

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Speaker 6: see a lot of movement in treasuries, it's just it's

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Speaker 6: sort of where you would you would expect. Maybe some

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Speaker 6: softening in high yield is what we've seen in the

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Speaker 6: last week or so. We think that what you should

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Speaker 6: be doing in these markets is trading in precision. So

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Speaker 6: what we offer and what we explain is that now

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Speaker 6: because of the ETF structure, you can actually trade the

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Speaker 6: higher quality segment of high yield if you will, So

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Speaker 6: you can trade triple B high yield. You're going to

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Speaker 6: be able to benefit from, you know, the higher income

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Speaker 6: and high yield, but you're up in quality. That's one

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Speaker 6: rung down from investment grade and investment grade.

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Speaker 7: We say reach all the way to triple.

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Speaker 6: B because the incremental default risk of triple B is

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Speaker 6: negligible compared to triple A. So you're getting all the

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Speaker 6: good credit quality, plus you're getting a lift in yield

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Speaker 6: in triple B space. So being able to trade these

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Speaker 6: precise and lean into these precise characteristics and think fics

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Speaker 6: income are really powerful. And if you haven't talked to

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Speaker 6: your advisor and you don't know where your interest rate

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Speaker 6: risk is in your portfolio, and you're not sure exactly

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Speaker 6: how it's any different than your ag position, you know

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Speaker 6: you should be asking that question.

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Speaker 4: Whenever you're speaking with your clients. How are their questions

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Speaker 4: different this year versus last year.

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Speaker 6: I'll tell you one question we get all the time,

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Speaker 6: and we talk a lot about this, and so sometimes

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Speaker 6: things repeat. I heard it earlier this morning on the show, like, well,

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Speaker 6: spreads are tight, so we're not going to go into corporates,

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Speaker 6: We're not going to take on any credit risk. We

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Speaker 6: have heard that since twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to come in until I.

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Speaker 6: See distress levels of spread. That's an investor that's trying

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Speaker 6: to time the market. They're trying to say I want

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Speaker 6: the best possible return today, and they missed all of

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Speaker 6: the return from twenty twenty three to twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 6: They haven't enjoyed these income levels I'm talking about. So

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Speaker 6: we still hear that, We still hear I think towards

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Speaker 6: the end of last year, well, spreads are tight, and

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Speaker 6: when spreads are tight, what it's reflecting in corporate bonds

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Speaker 6: is it's reflecting the fact that that's a positive economic

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Speaker 6: outlook and there's less risk to taking on that credit risk.

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Speaker 6: So if you dial down the interest rate risk and

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Speaker 6: you take that credit risk, it's actually good for your portfolio.

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Speaker 6: Income is offsetting the sequity of volatility.

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Speaker 2: Been a good time, I mean again, the bond market

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Speaker 2: are the cool kids again. Diegos, thank you so much

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Speaker 2: for joining us. Joining Gayegos. She's a partner at Bond Blocks.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

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Speaker 1: us every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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Speaker 2: Online jewelry retailer. I didn't know what it was the

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Speaker 2: thing until we met our next guest on cour Daga.

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Speaker 2: He's the CEO. His firm is called Angara a n

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Speaker 2: G a R. A online retailer Encurt. Thanks so much

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Speaker 2: for joining us here in studio.

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Speaker 8: Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 2: You're the CEO of a business, you know, kind of

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Speaker 2: a global business. How are you guys in the jewelry

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Speaker 2: business dealing with tariffs? Did tariffs impact the global jewelry business?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, quite a bit. It's kind of the perfect storm.

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Speaker 8: So diamond prices have been down forty to forty five

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Speaker 8: percent over the last three years.

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Speaker 2: And that's is that because of the synthetic diamonds, because.

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Speaker 8: Of lab grown exactly lab lab done.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, which is something I learned about.

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Speaker 4: Reason Okay, I didn't realize that to make him, okay,

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Speaker 4: tell us about that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 8: So they're chemically, physically optically identical to natural diamonds, but

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Speaker 8: now ninety percent less. So they're a perfect substitute for

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Speaker 8: natural So the industry has been reeling because of that.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 8: De Beer's revenue in twenty twenty two was six point

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Speaker 8: six billion, twenty twenty four was three point three billion,

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Speaker 8: so it had and this with tariffs and with high

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Speaker 8: goal prices, it's a double whammy now, so the industry

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Speaker 8: is going to go through a lot in the very

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Speaker 8: near term.

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Speaker 4: Wow, I have so many questions. I did I realize

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Speaker 4: this was a like what if.

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Speaker 2: I have a question just I don't know, for Lisa

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Speaker 2: and just okay, would you be indifferent to getting a

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Speaker 2: versus synthetic?

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Speaker 4: I'm going to ask that question that I'm curious about.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely the same, But is.

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Speaker 7: It as strong? Does it last as long?

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Speaker 4: Like?

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Speaker 7: Hey, how durable as real diamond on my finger and

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Speaker 7: it's lasted me twenty five years so far?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, will they last?

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Speaker 8: It's the same thing. So there's not a jeweler in

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Speaker 8: the world with a loop that could tell the difference chemically, physically,

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Speaker 8: optically identical boat tens on the mow Scille. Yeah, it's

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Speaker 8: still the hard substance on earth.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely. So I go back to the question mischief or

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Speaker 2: to say, hey, I've got this beautiful rain, but it's

436
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:03,160
Speaker 2: not real.

437
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 7: I would be all for it. Okay, Yeah, I would,

438
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:08,400
Speaker 7: because it's more affordable option.

439
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 2: I gotta say.

440
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 4: Interesting, I don't know, I think I want this is

441
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:17,360
Speaker 4: a year I would think.

442
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 2: All right, let's get back to the business at hand.

443
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,120
Speaker 2: How is your business? How was the online jewelry business

444
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 2: these days?

445
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 8: It's still quite strong. We've seen the industry overall has

446
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:30,679
Speaker 8: been flat for the last three months, but before that

447
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 8: we saw pretty substantial growth. We're starting to grow again now,

448
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,919
Speaker 8: but with uncertainty that's rising. Jewelry is interesting because it

449
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 8: gets hit first in any downturn, and so we're a

450
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:44,880
Speaker 8: little bit we're hopeful that that doesn't happen, but we're

451
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:46,399
Speaker 8: being cautious at the moment.

452
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 4: That's interesting too, just given the dynamic in recent years,

453
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 4: Like what's the setup moving forward, Like what's the outlook

454
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 4: that you see after the last few years between kind

455
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 4: of the differences we've talked about.

456
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 8: Yeah, so if I was to real back to COVID,

457
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,880
Speaker 8: COVID was amazing for the jewelry industry just in terms

458
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 8: of people couldn't go out, they couldn't travel. All that

459
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,120
Speaker 8: money went to luxury goods and jewelry was a prime beneficiary.

460
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 4: It's interesting because you're not really going anywhere, so people

461
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,480
Speaker 4: were still buying jewelry.

462
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:14,479
Speaker 2: That's right.

463
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 8: There was nowhere else to put money. So yeah, and

464
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,119
Speaker 8: so the industry really took off at that point, and

465
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,360
Speaker 8: there was a moderation in twenty three twenty four after

466
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 8: that as people started going out again, and so we're

467
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 8: starting to see growth again now after a while so

468
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:28,479
Speaker 8: that's pretty exciting.

469
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 2: I mean, we've seen e commerce as a percent of

470
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 2: total retail sales just explode during the pandemic, and a

471
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 2: lot of folks said kind of brought forward maybe ten

472
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 2: years of that growth into the pandemic. What's the e

473
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 2: commerce aspect, which is where you guys operate as a

474
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 2: part of the overall jewelry business.

475
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 8: So about twenty two percent of US sales are online,

476
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 8: so it's a pretty big number. And as you said

477
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 8: at the beginning, it's surprising that people buy jewelry online,

478
00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 8: but it's a far better option in terms of price.

479
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 8: There's so many reviews out there, and you know, it's

480
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 8: growing very quickly as an overall portion of the market.

481
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 4: So I guess what's kind of next for you moving forward.

482
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 8: So we're just launching in India April twenty fourth. It's

483
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,160
Speaker 8: a pretty exciting market for US. So just for context,

484
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 8: So the overall jewelry industry worldwide is four hundred billion dollars,

485
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 8: out of which eighty five billion for the US and

486
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 8: eighty five billion for India, so they're the same size market.

487
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 8: India is growing a lot faster at ten to fifteen

488
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 8: percent per year. As opposed to four percent in the US.

489
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 8: But interestingly, US GDP's thirty trillion dollars India's GDP's four

490
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 8: point three trillion, so it's a seven x difference, but

491
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 8: jewelry consumption is the same, which is pretty amazing.

492
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:41,919
Speaker 2: Why is that cultural?

493
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 8: It's cultural, you know, when somebody's getting married. Jewelry is

494
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 8: a big part of what is gifted, and people think

495
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 8: of it as a stable asset. That's an inflation hedge,

496
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 8: so it's an investment as much as something that's beautiful.

497
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 2: All right, it's fascinating stuff. We love having you in

498
00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 2: our studio to learn about this business and expense. We

499
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 2: could spend the whole timeline. Just would you take great?

500
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 2: I would synthetic diamond versus the rear one if it's

501
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 2: the exact same.

502
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 4: I don't know, God, you asked it because I was

503
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 4: figured it out. I was like, how do I broach this?

504
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:14,440
Speaker 2: Ces?

505
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 3: All right?

506
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 2: On Cordaga, CEO of Angara Online a jewelry and we

507
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 2: appreciate him coming in to our studios.

508
00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

509
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

510
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:30,159
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

511
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

512
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

513
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,479
Speaker 2: The newspaper segment Lisa Mintay, Lisa, what do you got

514
00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 2: for us today?

515
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 7: All right, this is for all the space fans. I'm sorry,

516
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 7: Tom Kin's not here exactly, okay, But this Soviet spacecraft,

517
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 7: it is falling back to Earth after fifty three years.

518
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 7: It's called Cosmos forty twould launched back in nineteen seventy two.

519
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 7: So basically what happened. It was meant to travel to Venus,

520
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,360
Speaker 7: but then at Malfactions month foul function have to lift

521
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 7: off and it into orbit around the Earth. So it's

522
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 7: been orbiting. It's only about three feet in diameter, but

523
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 7: it has this heat shield so it could actually go

524
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:10,639
Speaker 7: through the atmosphere and land on Earth. We don't know where.

525
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 7: That's the thing, That's what I was going to ask exactly.

526
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 7: There's no word on where. Some people have said maybe

527
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:20,399
Speaker 7: some experts from the Space Force but place it over

528
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 7: the Gulf of Oman, northeast of Africa, but really not

529
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,159
Speaker 7: sure yet. But it's also the space debris because that

530
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 7: can be a concern with things like this too, So

531
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:30,440
Speaker 7: that's another concern of it.

532
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:32,440
Speaker 2: We still have to make it. Space force is still

533
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 2: a thing, right, yes, yes, okay, I I haven't heard

534
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 2: anything about it since the initial on that front, but

535
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 2: you hear.

536
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 7: These stories of like, sometimes these things do happen in

537
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,120
Speaker 7: space where he does come down into people's homes. It's

538
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 7: happened before.

539
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 2: I live New Jersey, that's the least. Okay, a lot

540
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:55,360
Speaker 2: of things happened in Florida that you're kind of surprised about.

541
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 7: Okay, So we go from space flight to regular flights.

542
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 7: So this is ubs right. They're trying to cut costs

543
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 7: in Asia. Deal making slowing because escalating trade tensions. So

544
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 7: it's changing the global travel policy. So bankers are now

545
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:13,360
Speaker 7: not allowed to fly business class on short trips to China. Okay,

546
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 7: so before this, they were allowed to book those business

547
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 7: flight trips on short ships because they're actually generally lower

548
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,959
Speaker 7: which I didn't realize in other markets for the same distance.

549
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 7: So you have a flight from Hong Kong to Shanghai

550
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 7: just under three hours, right, it can cost less than

551
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,120
Speaker 7: five hundred dollars one way for business class.

552
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 4: Really, so yeah, you realized there was you used to

553
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 4: travel a lot for your job.

554
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 2: So my investment banking, all the investments I worked for it. Generally,

555
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 2: unless times are really tough, if your flight was five

556
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 2: hours or more, you can fly business or first class, right, Okrect.

557
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 2: Anything less than that was and that was generally the

558
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 2: rule unless things were getting so were you.

559
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 7: A flout or maybe sometimes you could go question, I.

560
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 2: Just asked you forget, you know, so I always booked

561
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,480
Speaker 2: and said, oh, I'm sorry that messed up, clicked the

562
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 2: wrong But no the day, you know, back before Bloomberg,

563
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 2: like Bloomberg, you have to do everything yourself. There's no Secharrect,

564
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 2: there's no assistance age. But back in investment back and

565
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 2: I had like lots of people doing stuff. Oh wow,

566
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 2: live in the good life. You need to be in

567
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 2: Chicago by you know, eight am. Just do it, you know.

568
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 2: And then I just stay here by the way. And

569
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 2: then I got I got here a Bloomberg and I'm like,

570
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 2: wait a minute, I got to do.

571
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 7: This in the laptop, like okay, look here, that's how.

572
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:31,120
Speaker 2: You do it, and this is the best way. Anything else.

573
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 7: Last one Pintures came out with their earnings, right Paul

574
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 7: I know you're not on Pinterest, right, I actually am not.

575
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 4: I have friends who rave about it.

576
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 7: But okay, so this is this is the point.

577
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 2: Okay.

578
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 7: So what's interesting is that the CEO is saying that

579
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 7: their big audience is actually gen Z, So that's those

580
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 7: like so they say that's where they go to shop

581
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 7: because they're raised on like the internet is this visual content.

582
00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 7: So basically millennials and gen X, right, we had them all,

583
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,239
Speaker 7: but gen Z has Pinterest so you buy, you can buy.

584
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, they different links.

585
00:30:04,320 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 7: So it's it's very visual, it's very pretty. Like if

586
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 7: you're redecorating, you want to go to Pinterest to get ideas.

587
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 2: I know because my sister what she is.

588
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 7: But they're saying it's attracting advertisers because they like that

589
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 7: group because gen Z is the one who's starting like

590
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 7: a lot of first like they're the first to get

591
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 7: you know, insurance or their first credit card, Like that's

592
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 7: a time. So they're saying they want to attract these

593
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 7: so now advertiser coming in. That's why their shares are

594
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 7: up this morning too.

595
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 2: I was trying to explain to my youngest whole concept

596
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 2: of the Yellow Pages that wasn't a thing for those

597
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 2: come I see trucks going by that are just a

598
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:45,479
Speaker 2: plumbing because you just a comes first in the public way. Crazy.

599
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 2: So times have changed, Steo Newspapers, thank you very much

600
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 2: for that.

601
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

602
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

603
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

604
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

605
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

606
00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal