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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Balance of Power. I'm
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew at Bloomberg World Headquarters in New York. We,
Speaker 2: of course have a constant connection to what's happening in
Speaker 2: the nation's capital, where most people are gone. Lawmakers on recess,
Speaker 2: and as we told you, Republican leaders holding forth the
Speaker 2: Big Confab in Miami at the Mandarin Oriental where the
Speaker 2: real deals are made their annual leadership retreat over the
Speaker 2: weekend and generating some news. Guys like Bob Good on
Speaker 2: the Freedom Caucus are saying it out loud. Reports suggest
Speaker 2: that guys like the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson
Speaker 2: or saying it quietly behind closed doors. The government's going
Speaker 2: to start shutting down pretty soon the first of March.
Speaker 2: There's no plan to avoid that. That could change, of course,
Speaker 2: with a full shutdown kicking in on the eighth of March.
Speaker 2: If you listen to this program, you know the score here.
Speaker 2: Lawmakers will have only three days to manage this when
Speaker 2: they get back, and that's why folks like Jack Fitzpatrick
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg Government are scratching their head right now to
Speaker 2: figure out if there is really a path. And Jack
Speaker 2: joins us as we speak the reporting today. Jack, when
Speaker 2: you read the tip sheets, when you read the terminal,
Speaker 2: would suggest that this might be unavoidable. What's your view?
Speaker 3: It's not unavoidable yet. I'm not curing absolute alarm bells
Speaker 3: and straight up warnings that there will be a shutdown.
Speaker 3: But there are a few really tough issues. One just
Speaker 3: being the calendar, the fact that the first four of
Speaker 3: twelve bills are due on March first and the House
Speaker 3: doesn't come back until February twenty eighth. Second, they have
Speaker 3: just struggled with a variety of issues. There's not one
Speaker 3: issue that's hold them up. But there was never an
Speaker 3: initial agreement on how to approach policy. Riders the questions
Speaker 3: of are we going to make any major policy changes
Speaker 3: when we fund the government? The House Republicans are pushing
Speaker 3: for a ton of things they've had to send up.
Speaker 3: Usually when the subcommittee leaders who write the bills can't
Speaker 3: solve every problem. They send up problems to the full
Speaker 3: committee leaders or even to the Speaker. They've had to
Speaker 3: send up more issues than ever before, according to Mike Simpson,
Speaker 3: who's in charge of funding the Department of the Interior
Speaker 3: as one example. So there are maybe dozens of just
Speaker 3: unsolved policy debates and not a lot of time. So
Speaker 3: it's a very challenging situation. But theoretically they can solve this,
Speaker 3: get to a handshake deal, put a bill out and
Speaker 3: vote on it in time if everybody is determined to
Speaker 3: do so.
Speaker 2: We talked to Tom Emmer about this last week. Jackie
Speaker 2: told us on Bloomberg that the government was not going
Speaker 2: to shut down and that there would not be another
Speaker 2: cr that they were going to have a minibus approach,
Speaker 2: you know, put some bills together, try to get some
Speaker 2: fast action on the floor. If that happens, are we
Speaker 2: talking about fulfilling the rest of the fiscal year? Is
Speaker 2: this in fact a short term in the end that
Speaker 2: gets us through a month, because I know you're looking
Speaker 2: at April thirtieth. At that point, if it's not figured out,
Speaker 2: we have an across the board budget cut that was
Speaker 2: baked in the cake months ago as part of a
Speaker 2: deal that Kevin McCarthy made, and it looks like we
Speaker 2: might actually see that happen.
Speaker 3: Yes, so there is not much of a short term
Speaker 3: solution if they grip over their own feet over the
Speaker 3: next week or so, if they cannot meet these March
Speaker 3: first in March eighth deadlines, the House Republicans are so
Speaker 3: determined not to put forth another continuing resolution, the vote
Speaker 3: counting would be very, very difficult. You do face the
Speaker 3: threat of a one percent across the board cut if
Speaker 3: they're relying on a stop gap beyond April thirtieth, So
Speaker 3: that adds another layer, another dimension to the negotiations. They
Speaker 3: have not figured out exactly how they're going to package
Speaker 3: these though I've asked a number of lawmakers. Is it
Speaker 3: going to be a four bill package followed by an
Speaker 3: eight bill package as the last stopgap would indicate. There's
Speaker 3: not specifically a plan on how many bills they vote
Speaker 3: on at each time, So that's another thing that they
Speaker 3: have to figure out very very quickly before holding these votes.
Speaker 2: I got to ask you about this game of survivor
Speaker 2: that's being played in the House here as we spend
Speaker 2: time with Jack Fitzpatrick on Bloomberg Radio and on YouTube Jacked.
Speaker 2: The idea of potentially being fired is driving a lot
Speaker 2: of decision making for Speaker Johnson. And the idea is that, well,
Speaker 2: if he does a continuing resolution or maybe does a
Speaker 2: mini bus approach that members of the Freedom Caucus, maybe
Speaker 2: Marjorie Taylor Green, will trigger a motion to vacate. There
Speaker 2: could be many different opportunities for this to happen. Enter
Speaker 2: Josh gottheimer, He's got a resolution. This is a Democrat,
Speaker 2: of course, a resolution that would essentially have new rules
Speaker 2: applied to the motion of vacate would give Democrats a
Speaker 2: chance to help protect the speaker. Is this the beginning
Speaker 2: of some grand deal that Mike Johnson might use to
Speaker 2: preserve his speakership.
Speaker 3: There are a few reasons to think that he might
Speaker 3: need to end up relying on Democratic votes or non votes.
Speaker 3: For one, if he's trying to get a majority in
Speaker 3: a vote for Speaker, then Democrats can help him, not
Speaker 3: necessarily by voting for him, but by declining to cast
Speaker 3: a vote, which would lower the threshold. It seems right
Speaker 3: now the biggest threat would be over the way these
Speaker 3: immigration talks and Ukraine aid have kind of melted down,
Speaker 3: and if he does do something on Ukraine Aid without
Speaker 3: a grand deal on immigration, but since there are some
Speaker 3: Centrists pushing for a vote on at least limited measures,
Speaker 3: you look to Representative Gotttheimer Ice book briefly to Representative
Speaker 3: Golden Jerry Golden from Maine, who said he wants to
Speaker 3: talk to the Speaker about that kind of scenario. There
Speaker 3: may be democratic help depending on exactly what the deal is.
Speaker 3: There are not a ton of Democrats who want to
Speaker 3: broadcast that they would vote for a Republican or sit
Speaker 3: out vote, but it is potentially on the table.
Speaker 2: Jack Fitzpatrick, thank you, sir, as always reporting for Bloomberg Government.
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe to Jack's newsletter, by the way,
Speaker 2: on budget at the Terminal and at Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew at World Headquarters in New York. When
Speaker 2: you consider the lack of action, I mean, I don't
Speaker 2: know if any of that made sense to you, but
Speaker 2: it does seem that we're careening toward a likely shutdown.
Speaker 2: And even if we're not, a standoff potentially between Speaker
Speaker 2: Johnson and his own Republican conference, depending on the lever
Speaker 2: he chooses to pull here, and we want to continue
Speaker 2: the conversation with Patrick Murray's joining us from Monmouth University's
Speaker 2: Polling Institute, where he is the director of operations. Patrick,
Speaker 2: it's great to see you. We tend to ask you
Speaker 2: about presidential favorability approval ratings and the horse race on
Speaker 2: the campaign trail, which I will ask you about. But
Speaker 2: how's Congress doing these days? We talk so much about
Speaker 2: Joe Biden's approval rating? Are we in the single digits?
Speaker 2: Where's Congress in terms of Americans' views of what they're
Speaker 2: getting done?
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, we're getting We're not quite at the single digits,
Speaker 4: but we're getting close. Fourteen percent of Americans approve of
Speaker 4: the job that Congress is doing. Seventy nine percent disapprove.
Speaker 4: And while we've seen numbers that are very close to
Speaker 4: that before, that seventy nine percent number is the highest
Speaker 4: that we've seen since we started pulling nationally back in
Speaker 4: twenty thirteen. So there's a record high for congressional disapproval
Speaker 4: right now.
Speaker 2: A record high. I guess there's always room for new records.
Speaker 4: Here, Patrick, you think, yeah, you think we're getting pretty
Speaker 4: close to where you can't get them anymore.
Speaker 2: But that's actually very true. When you play them against
Speaker 2: Joe Biden's approval numbers, it starts to put things in
Speaker 2: context here a little bit. America is sick of Washington, period.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, you know, Joe Biden's numbers are in
Speaker 4: the high thirties to forty percent in most polls. It
Speaker 4: was thirty eight in our poll. But Congress those numbers
Speaker 4: have just just been for the last decade, have just
Speaker 4: been bad. Even if you know, I think that we've
Speaker 4: seen them as high as thirty five, closing in on
Speaker 4: forty percent, but they have been in the twenties for
Speaker 4: most of the past decade. And that's because of you know,
Speaker 4: we were just talking about it. You know, Congress is broken.
Speaker 4: They can't get together on big ticket items. Is that
Speaker 4: they're looking to, you know, to protect their flanks, and
Speaker 4: that trickles down. That's part of the problem that we've
Speaker 4: seen in our polling all along, is that people say
Speaker 4: they want by partisanship. We've asked them some questions about this.
Speaker 4: They always say they want by partisanship. But in the end,
Speaker 4: I think, you know, some of these leaders know that
Speaker 4: you have to play to your your your wings, you know,
Speaker 4: the extremes of your wings if you're going to get
Speaker 4: re elected in a potentially contested primary, and that's what
Speaker 4: it seems all about. So then in the end, Congress
Speaker 4: is broken, and it's reflected in these and these poor
Speaker 4: results that we get.
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you for Joe Biden, it's got to
Speaker 2: be a head scratcher for the administration. We spend so
Speaker 2: much time here talking about stronger than expected economic data recently,
Speaker 2: whether it's the job market, whether it's overall economic growth
Speaker 2: by way of GDP, whether it's prices. That's another problem here,
Speaker 2: of course, with inflation being a little hotter than expected
Speaker 2: at the beginning of this year, and you've found just
Speaker 2: a third of Americans, one third field they're benefiting from
Speaker 2: this current economy. It's not likely. And it got a
Speaker 2: lot better between now and the election.
Speaker 4: Patrick, And that's one of the things that I've been
Speaker 4: explained to folks over the past few years, is that
Speaker 4: this inflation factor is something that we haven't dealt with.
Speaker 4: We're basically a generation so we've asked the same question
Speaker 4: about the growing economy, and it includes a couple of
Speaker 4: things that hadn't happened during the pandemic such as by
Speaker 4: Dow Jones average and low unemployment so forth. But now
Speaker 4: we're back to that situation. So we were asking the
Speaker 4: same question that we asked before the pandemic, and Joe
Speaker 4: Biden does a lot worse than his two predecessors on
Speaker 4: this mark. As you mentioned, thirty three percent say they're
Speaker 4: getting some benefit from this growing economy. Forty percent say
Speaker 4: they're not getting any benefit at all. And you know,
Speaker 4: if you look at Trump and if you look at Obama,
Speaker 4: when we asked the question during their third terms, it
Speaker 4: was only about a quarter of Americans who said that
Speaker 4: they weren't getting any benefit from the growing economy then.
Speaker 4: And I think the difference that we have with Joe
Speaker 4: Biden is that the numbers were better in past administrations
Speaker 4: because it was coming off of pretty consistent boom with
Speaker 4: just some you know, some roadblocks or roadbumps along the way.
Speaker 4: With Joe Biden, this inflation factor is significantly dick different
Speaker 4: than what his predecessors had faced. And this is the
Speaker 4: thing that keeps people some saying, yeah, the economy is booming,
Speaker 4: but I'm still paying twenty percent more from my groceries
Speaker 4: than I did four years ago. And that's really what's
Speaker 4: holding up.
Speaker 2: Back, even if you're making more than you were or
Speaker 2: four years ago, even if you're making more than inflation,
Speaker 2: which is really interesting to me here Patrick, this is
Speaker 2: very difficult to quantify. People want the same grocery bill
Speaker 2: they had in twenty nineteen before COVID, and talk about
Speaker 2: some tough comparisons there and this case coming out of COVID.
Speaker 2: My goodness, it's been a surge when you look at
Speaker 2: the job market and so forth. But the fact of
Speaker 2: the matter is, in many cases their wages have not
Speaker 2: only kept up with, but topped inflation. The White House
Speaker 2: cannot seem to connect with people on this.
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is like a key thing where they just
Speaker 4: simply cannot you know, get basically, it is just that
Speaker 4: there's that Benchmarket's that twenty nineteen grocery build benchmarket. You
Speaker 4: can't get away from it. And even if we just
Speaker 4: talk in general about the growing economy and we ask people,
Speaker 4: how much credit does Joe Biden, you know, even if
Speaker 4: you're not getting benefit, how much credit does Joe Biden
Speaker 4: get for the fact that these other factors are doing
Speaker 4: better than they were before, And only about half will
Speaker 4: give them at least grudgingly some credit for that. So
Speaker 4: he can't even get credit for the things that are
Speaker 4: happening elsewhere in the economy.
Speaker 2: Well, that's true. As we spend time with Patrick Murray
Speaker 2: from Monmouth University, important headline from this White House is
Speaker 2: the President has wrestled with the idea of student loan
Speaker 2: debt forgiveness, his administration announcing more than one hundred and
Speaker 2: fifty thousand borrowers will receive one point two billion dollars
Speaker 2: in student loan forgiveness under this program unveiled in January,
Speaker 2: seeking to provide relief. Does this move the needle here
Speaker 2: or these are not the folks the president needs to
Speaker 2: worry about.
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is really geared if you're just looking at
Speaker 4: it in terms of its political impact in a presidential
Speaker 4: election year. This is geared towards some base Democratic voters
Speaker 4: that have drifted away from Joe Biden. These are particularly
Speaker 4: lower income voters of color, black voters, Hispanic voters, because
Speaker 4: they're the ones who are impacted significantly more by that
Speaker 4: student loan debt in terms of their overall debt and
Speaker 4: their economic well being.
Speaker 2: As you find though in your research that when it
Speaker 2: comes to helping poor families. Biden does better than Trump,
Speaker 2: but much worse than Obama.
Speaker 1: How come?
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I get it. It's just this simple sense
Speaker 4: that in big boom times with Obama that the rising
Speaker 4: tide raises all boats. I think was kind of kind
Speaker 4: of this sense, and it's not here. And it's interesting,
Speaker 4: you know, that student loan thing, because when we ask
Speaker 4: about student loans, majority of voters overall are against, including Democrats,
Speaker 4: are against relieving all debt because there's a sense you
Speaker 4: entered that debt. But it's different among Black voters. It's
Speaker 4: different among Hispanic voters, and that's a core group that
Speaker 4: Biden needs to get back on his side. He still
Speaker 4: has a majority of them supporting him, but nowhere near
Speaker 4: the two thirds or more majority that he had in
Speaker 4: twenty twenty.
Speaker 2: Patrick, we started our conversation talking about congress woeful approval ratings.
Speaker 2: If we have a shutdown, I suspect that this pulls
Speaker 2: pretty can consistently when you're looking at blame game and
Speaker 2: what people think of Congress. Would that be something Republicans
Speaker 2: should worry about?
Speaker 1: Are both parties?
Speaker 4: I think you know in the in the end, it's
Speaker 4: it's both parties should worry about it. The Republicans may
Speaker 4: be a little bit more because you know, we've seen
Speaker 4: this gameplay out a little bit as partisan voters get
Speaker 4: more entrenched in just supporting one side or the other.
Speaker 4: It doesn't matter to them what happens. They'll blame the
Speaker 4: other side. But there still is a core group of voters.
Speaker 4: They're small, but they're going to be decisive in a
Speaker 4: high turnout election where a lot of these margins are
Speaker 4: going to be very thin, both for the president and
Speaker 4: the electoral College and some key states, but also for
Speaker 4: some members of Congress up for reelection where this sense
Speaker 4: that Congress is broken. Those voters are our voters who
Speaker 4: are unhappy with a focus on social issues like abortion.
Speaker 4: They want to go back to bread and butter issues.
Speaker 4: You know, what are you doing on taxes? What are
Speaker 4: you doing on the economy? And this kind of sense
Speaker 4: that you can't even keep the government open will probably
Speaker 4: on the margins have more of a negative impact on
Speaker 4: Republicans and Democrats.
Speaker 2: Patrick Murray, you have the best background on the show
Speaker 2: so far today. If you were with us on YouTube,
Speaker 2: you'd see my favorite Richard Nixon poster behind him there.
Speaker 2: It's great to see if Patrick come back and see
Speaker 2: us soon from Monmouth University. He's the director of the
Speaker 2: Polling Institute. A deep dive, a great clinic with Patrick
Speaker 2: here on the fastest show in politics, This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 2: We haven't even mentioned Ukraine and Israel war Taiwan for
Speaker 2: that matter. The Emergency Supplemental funding request Kayley that passed
Speaker 2: the Senate but does not appear to have have a
Speaker 2: path in the House. There's an incredible debate happening right
Speaker 2: now while that is on hold in Washington before the
Speaker 2: UN Security Council.
Speaker 5: Isn't there, Yeah, there is regarding Israel and the actions
Speaker 5: it is taking in the Gaza strip the threat it
Speaker 5: poses to civilian life as we have seen civilian casualties
Speaker 5: according to the Health Ministry in Gaza that are roughly
Speaker 5: at thirty thousand.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 5: The US yesterday vetoing a security Council resolution that would
Speaker 5: have called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. That resolution,
Speaker 5: of course is put forward by Algeria, which is the
Speaker 5: Arab member that is rotating on the Security Council currently.
Speaker 5: But the reason for the US veto this time was
Speaker 5: they have an alternative Joe, a ceasefire still but of
Speaker 5: a temporary nature.
Speaker 2: That's exactly right, and so we'll see. Of course the
Speaker 2: US with veto power blocking this first draft. Now maybe
Speaker 2: the US version will be taken up. That's where Carmel
Speaker 2: Arbit comes in with the Atlantic Council. Carmela has been
Speaker 2: a a reliable voice for US helping to understand the
Speaker 2: contours of all of this since the war began. Senior
Speaker 2: fellow at the Atlantic Council for Middle East Programs and
Speaker 2: the Skullcroft Middle East Security Initiative. Cartmeil, thanks for being
Speaker 2: with us well. The US version of this cease fire
Speaker 2: pass the Security Council.
Speaker 6: I think what's really remarkable, and you noted this earlier,
Speaker 6: is that the US has really been unwavering in its
Speaker 6: support for Israel during this war. And we've seen that
Speaker 6: really from day one, where they have said Israel has
Speaker 6: a right to defend itself to take out him US,
Speaker 6: and we will stand with it. It has defended Israel
Speaker 6: at the ICJ today, and as you noted, is bringing
Speaker 6: forth its own proposal in front of the UN. What
Speaker 6: it has sought to do is to essentially shield Israel
Speaker 6: from international community pressure to immediately pursue a permanent ceasefire.
Speaker 6: What the US is calling for instead is the release
Speaker 6: of all hostages in exchange for a temporary ceasefire. Whether
Speaker 6: or not it will pass remains to be seen.
Speaker 5: Well, Carmeil, how telling is it to you that we
Speaker 5: are using the words the US is using the words
Speaker 5: temporary cease fire, when before it was pauses, I.
Speaker 6: Would say, potato, potato. The truth is in practice, Really,
Speaker 6: those are.
Speaker 7: The thing seemed.
Speaker 5: It mattered initially.
Speaker 6: It mattered because the rhetoric mattered to the people who
Speaker 6: were hearing it. So Israel needed to hear at the
Speaker 6: beginning of this war that the United States was going
Speaker 6: to stand behind it through a pause, and by not
Speaker 6: using the word ceasefire, they avoided joining the international community
Speaker 6: and pressuring Israel to stop its operation in Gazo or
Speaker 6: to restrain itself. The US has shifted in its rhetoric
Speaker 6: in part because as the war has gone on, the
Speaker 6: toll has been, in fact devastating. It's been devastating for
Speaker 6: nearly thirty thousand Gozins who have been killed, and it's
Speaker 6: remained devastating for Israelis who are displaced from their homes
Speaker 6: and remain in fear so long as Hamas remains in power. Said,
Speaker 6: the US is also conscious of its own domestic constituency
Speaker 6: and the pushback that it is getting for its support
Speaker 6: for Israel, and so with that in mind, they've started
Speaker 6: to adopt language like a temporary ceasefire, mirroring calls for
Speaker 6: a permanent ceasefire, but not actually demanding it. And so
Speaker 6: in practice the reality is the same. The question will
Speaker 6: only be that through negotiations how long a pause or
Speaker 6: a ceasefire actually lasts.
Speaker 2: The vote in the Security Council yesterday fifteen members was
Speaker 2: thirteen to one the UK abstained Carmeil. What did the
Speaker 2: other members think of the US veto.
Speaker 6: The United States faces a huge amount of opposition and
Speaker 6: pressure around the world, particularly among its Arab allies, for
Speaker 6: its support for Israel. That's not new to this conflict.
Speaker 6: That's something that has gone on for a long time.
Speaker 6: But the US has also shown that it is willing
Speaker 6: to stand up at the UN, to stand on its
Speaker 6: own two feet, to use its veto power at the
Speaker 6: Security Council to assert itself as a world leader. The
Speaker 6: reality is that the international community and specifically the UN,
Speaker 6: has been ineffective to date in driving peace or progress
Speaker 6: between Israelis and Palestinians. That has been done most effectively,
Speaker 6: although with limits, between the parties themselves, through the support
Speaker 6: of negotiations and through the support of countries like the
Speaker 6: United States and other Arab allies who are bringing the
Speaker 6: countries together behind closed doors.
Speaker 5: Well, Carmilla, as you talk about the US standing up
Speaker 5: to those at the UN, I wonder about the US
Speaker 5: standing up more so the Biden President Biden, specifically to
Speaker 5: Benjamin Netanyahu. One of our opinion columnists here at Bloomberg,
Speaker 5: Andreas Kluth, had a peace out this morning. That says,
Speaker 5: the right wing government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and
Speaker 5: it's seemingly indiscriminate war in the Gaza Strip, which may
Speaker 5: yet be ruled genocidal, is leaving Biden little choice. He
Speaker 5: must distance himself if he doesn't want to sacrifice American
Speaker 5: credibility in the so called Global South forever? Is that really?
Speaker 5: What is it risk?
Speaker 6: Here? I think that Joe Biden is dealing with a
Speaker 6: difficult dilemma in that he deeply supports Israel, the state,
Speaker 6: to the country, the cause, but she has always had
Speaker 6: challenges with Natanyapu, and we have seen that all the
Speaker 6: way through. He does not support the government itself or
Speaker 6: many of the positions that Natanyapu has pursued. Particularly is Natagnan,
Speaker 6: who has both veered to the right with his righting government,
Speaker 6: but also is making decisions in many cases that are
Speaker 6: motivated by his own personal interests in remaining in power
Speaker 6: as he faces corruption charges. And so those tensions have
Speaker 6: always been there, and so Biden has done a really
Speaker 6: good job of differentiating between the needs of the State
Speaker 6: of Israel and the politics of Nataniyapu. We are seeing
Speaker 6: that conflict really come into the spotlight, and I would
Speaker 6: frankly expect it to worsen as we come into the
Speaker 6: Ramadan holiday, where Natanya, who was thinking very much about
Speaker 6: his domestic political audience, and Biden is much more concerned
Speaker 6: about the safety and security of the region and the
Speaker 6: US's role.
Speaker 2: Carmel that US proposal for the Security Council that we're
Speaker 2: talking about here warns against an Israeli assault on Rafa.
Speaker 2: We're separately seeing stories today on the terminal of the
Speaker 2: UK IS considering restricting arm sales to Israel if, in fact,
Speaker 2: Israel launches an offensive in Rafa. It appears that it's
Speaker 2: just a matter of timing here. It's a question of when,
Speaker 2: not if that occurs. Will that be a turning point
Speaker 2: in Western support for Israel.
Speaker 6: Yeah, So the Israelis say that they have taken out
Speaker 6: about half of Hamas operatives and that Rafa really remains
Speaker 6: the one major stronghold of Hamas battalions. It's notable that
Speaker 6: Israeli operatives extracted to hostile who are being held in Rafa.
Speaker 6: This is really only the second time they've successfully done
Speaker 6: this through an operation. And so the Israelis have made
Speaker 6: clear that in order to achieve their objectives in Gaza
Speaker 6: removing Hamas from power, that they believe they must enter Rafa.
Speaker 6: This is, as you know, deeply concerning for the international community.
Speaker 6: There are more than one and a half million Kalstinian
Speaker 6: civilians who have been displaced into Rafa, who have been
Speaker 6: pushed further to the south. Many have been displaced multiple
Speaker 6: times or living in tent encampments. If they are displaced
Speaker 6: yet again, we could be talking about only a worsened
Speaker 6: humanitarian crisis in the region. It will cause significant tensions
Speaker 6: between Israel and the international community, and that's part of
Speaker 6: the reason that the US is trying to fold this
Speaker 6: in through a UN effort, but really also focusing on
Speaker 6: negotiations privately with the Israelis, where they have insisted that
Speaker 6: they must put forward a credible, implementable proposal for dealing
Speaker 6: with those civilians.
Speaker 5: All right, Karmil, thank you so much as always for
Speaker 5: joining us, Carmel Arbet joining us from the Atlantic Council.
Speaker 5: And as we talk about Rafa, Joe, we did hear
Speaker 5: from Israeli Minister Benny Gance earlier today who said an
Speaker 5: operation in Rafa will begin after the population is evacuated
Speaker 5: from the area. Reiterates that if there is no hostage deal,
Speaker 5: which he does say there are signs that could move forward,
Speaker 5: the Israeli military will operate in Rafa during Ramadan.
Speaker 2: It's fascinating stuff as we understand moment by moment what's
Speaker 2: happening over there. Kaylee will of course keep our listeners
Speaker 2: and viewers attuned to what's happening at the Security Council.
Speaker 2: The panel's next.
Speaker 1: On Bloomberg, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.
Speaker 1: Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and
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Speaker 2: From World Headquarters in New York. Kayley is in Washington,
Speaker 2: d C. The most frequently asked question on this program,
Speaker 2: I think since the beginning of the year, Kaylee, or
Speaker 2: at least since Iowa, has been when is Nicki Haley
Speaker 2: going to drop out of the race? Pretty tough for
Speaker 2: Nicki Haley, I guess, particularly when she continues to raise
Speaker 2: gobs of money. It's a fascinating dual narrative here. We
Speaker 2: had our fundraising deadline last night. We're looking at the
Speaker 2: numbers today, Kaylee. For the first time, she outraised Donald Trump.
Speaker 5: Yeah, raised sixteen and a half million dollars in the
Speaker 5: month of January, which of course is when we saw
Speaker 5: her coming in third in Iowa, coming in a distant
Speaker 5: second in New Hampshire, when hopes had been higher for
Speaker 5: her performance in that state, and yet she still was
Speaker 5: able to raise that amount relative to former President Trump,
Speaker 5: who took in just eight point eight million dollars for
Speaker 5: his campaign. And of course you have to think about
Speaker 5: the money coming in versus the money going out, because
Speaker 5: the Trump campaign spent more money than it raised. Their
Speaker 5: burn last month was eleven point four million dollars. And
Speaker 5: it speaks to a very tricky financial picture for the
Speaker 5: former president who has a lot of legal bills.
Speaker 2: He needs right another three million dollar dollars from the
Speaker 2: leadership pack Save America just for attorney's fees in the
Speaker 2: month of January. And we're talking about trials beginning later
Speaker 2: in this calendar year, Kayley. But there were a lot
Speaker 2: of interesting narratives to come out of this. Joe Biden
Speaker 2: continues to out raise everybody.
Speaker 5: Forty two million dollars in January. He's sitting on a
Speaker 5: pretty pile of one hundred and thirty million dollars. I
Speaker 5: guess the question is how well can you put that
Speaker 5: to loose use in a general election campaign when right
Speaker 5: now you are lagging behind Trump in most polls, especially
Speaker 5: in swing states. So on that note, let's get to
Speaker 5: our political panel joining us now with me here in Washington,
Speaker 5: Genie Shanzano, our Bloomberg Politics contributor, and with Joe and
Speaker 5: New York Chape and Fay Act a managing director and
Speaker 5: Republican strategist. So Genie, just to start with you, we
Speaker 5: often talk about how Trump is just a different kind
Speaker 5: of candidate. He gets all of this free earned media
Speaker 5: going in and out of court. Yes, may cost him
Speaker 5: money in attorney's fees, but it also gets him airtime
Speaker 5: because all the networks are covering it. To what extent
Speaker 5: is traditional camp financing matter to a candidate like him.
Speaker 8: You know, it has been so fascinating to watch Donald Trump.
Speaker 8: I was just thinking back to twenty sixteen when I
Speaker 8: would say, you know, sort of naive things like Hillary
Speaker 8: Clinton likely has the upper hand because she raised famously
Speaker 8: over one billion dollars. But Donald Trump obviously won, and
Speaker 8: he won pretty handily in the electoral college, and part
Speaker 8: of that was because of this earned media. And he
Speaker 8: is such a master at getting that earned media in
Speaker 8: a way other politicians like Hillary Clinton, like Joe Biden
Speaker 8: have not been as proficient as so he can still
Speaker 8: do that and certainly these court cases will help. But
Speaker 8: as you were, just talking to Joe about the burn
Speaker 8: rate is tremendous. I'm thinking, you know, you're reporting he
Speaker 8: spent how much on legal fees in three million in
Speaker 8: January and the court case is that barely kicked in.
Speaker 8: Imagine as we get into March and then April and May,
Speaker 8: so he's gonna have hefty bills. The burn rate's gonna
Speaker 8: be higher. But nobody is more masterful than Donald Trump
Speaker 8: at getting that free media. So that is going to
Speaker 8: be important. And that's why Joe Biden, this juggernaut that
Speaker 8: he is, a fundraising has got to use the time
Speaker 8: now to fundraise big and they are doing.
Speaker 2: That, they sure are. I'm going to put a finer
Speaker 2: point on what Kaylee was mentioning Chapin in terms of
Speaker 2: Donald Trump, the exception to every rule. He's not even
Speaker 2: been on the air in South Carolina. He's about to
Speaker 2: win the primary by twenty to thirty points against the
Speaker 2: hometown candidate here, and so I wonder is fundraising actually
Speaker 2: a mechanism for him to pay legal fees as opposed
Speaker 2: to pay for the campaign, the advertising and all the
Speaker 2: traditional stuff. Because if he's the king of earned media,
Speaker 2: what does it matter?
Speaker 9: Well, he is the ultimate disruptor in politics, right, I mean,
Speaker 9: he turns every rule on its head. You know, it
Speaker 9: cuts both ways. The you know, his name recognition has
Speaker 9: got to be close to one hundred percent, so electorally,
Speaker 9: the people who have not made up their minds yet
Speaker 9: about the two candidates or the presumably two candidates, that
Speaker 9: that group is shrinking, I think by and he does
Speaker 9: have a lot of legal jeopardy going on, and that
Speaker 9: is what is eating up all of his fundraising. But
Speaker 9: his base is so behind him, you know, forcefully behind him,
Speaker 9: that he can raise those small dollar donors fairly easily.
Speaker 9: I'd be curious to see the breakdown between Nicki Haley's
Speaker 9: and Donald Trump's you know, small dollar grassroots donations. And
Speaker 9: the other thing I would I would just point I
Speaker 9: would make about the fundraising is as the non Trump
Speaker 9: candidates sort of got whittled down to one, you know,
Speaker 9: it was that they're voters. The money all of that
Speaker 9: was always going to coal us or likely call us
Speaker 9: around one person, which is what Nickki Haley is benefiting
Speaker 9: from right now. The problem numbers wise for her is
Speaker 9: that he got more than everyone else combined, you know,
Speaker 9: and all the polls and all the all the and
Speaker 9: now that we're seeing election results, so so you know,
Speaker 9: query whether she can make a dent electorally, but certainly
Speaker 9: she'll have the funds to keep going because there are
Speaker 9: a lot of people who just HiT's so polarized. You
Speaker 9: either love Donald Trump where you don't or you don't, right,
Speaker 9: and she's taking getting all the money.
Speaker 5: I'd like to ask you about the fact that she's
Speaker 5: getting money. This is Bloomberg. We talk about investments here.
Speaker 5: Typically people don't like to put good money after bad investments.
Speaker 5: There is no poll in which Nikki Haley shows that
Speaker 5: she can beat Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee.
Speaker 5: There's no clear path. What does it say that people
Speaker 5: are still throwing a ton of money at her as
Speaker 5: she tries and ultimately very likely will fail.
Speaker 9: That's a great question, you know. I always like to
Speaker 9: say in campaign finance and fundraising for clients that you
Speaker 9: know it's an investment, right, you have to prove to
Speaker 9: the donor why they should invest in you. I think
Speaker 9: it's a little different than that on the political side.
Speaker 9: People are ideological. People give because they're emotional. The limits,
Speaker 9: the federal limits are such that you know you can't
Speaker 9: be giving fifty thousand dollars one candidate through you know,
Speaker 9: the traditional campaign apparatus, So that tampers that down a
Speaker 9: little bit. And listen, you know, politics is about on
Speaker 9: Campaigns are about putting yourself in the best possible position
Speaker 9: to capitalize on opportunity. So that's what's happen happening right.
Speaker 9: Who knows if President Trump will be in jail or
Speaker 9: not right or who knows, you know, what his ability
Speaker 9: to run after you know, he goes through this legal
Speaker 9: process will be. So that's sort of what all the
Speaker 9: Republicans earlier in this race we're planning on, right, be
Speaker 9: in the best possible position when whatever happens happens. Right,
Speaker 9: general election is in November, still a lifetime away. There's
Speaker 9: still you know, questions as to who the candidates are
Speaker 9: going to be. I don't know if they're real questions,
Speaker 9: but there's still questions. So I think there's plenty of
Speaker 9: time for something. You know, I don't know what that
Speaker 9: crazy thing would happen, because around President Trump, crazy things
Speaker 9: always happened. But to preclude him from being the nominee,
Speaker 9: who knows, you know, and you know she'll run into
Speaker 9: the convention. You know hope, you know, she's hoping she'll
Speaker 9: run strong and have the money in this important see
Speaker 9: what happens.
Speaker 2: I don't know, Genie. We haven't seen the money from
Speaker 2: the shoes yet, the gold sneakers, that's still pre order money.
Speaker 2: And I'm just the jury's out until this happens. But
Speaker 2: we're playing the deepstakes today after Donald Trump held a
Speaker 2: town hall on Fox last evening. They are all very
Speaker 2: familiar names, and I wonder if any of them might
Speaker 2: move the needle for you, whether it's Ramaswami, Tim Scott somehow.
Speaker 2: Ron de Santis is on this list. I don't think
Speaker 2: we're going there Byron. Donald's also Florida Governor Christy Nome
Speaker 2: and Tulsei Gabbert both on this so called short list, Genie,
Speaker 2: is he gaslighting us? Or is this the actual list?
Speaker 2: Will it be one of these?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 8: I trust him completely. Joe Matthew never to gaslight anyone.
Speaker 8: And I'm going to get you and Kayley those sneakers
Speaker 8: as soon as this pre order session is over. A
Speaker 8: little money, it's a lot of money, but it's you
Speaker 8: guys are worth it, you know, I think you know
Speaker 8: there's there were the name I think that stuck out
Speaker 8: to most of us on the list from last night
Speaker 8: was Tulsi Gabbert. But you know, as you think about it,
Speaker 8: you know, I like to follow what's going on in
Speaker 8: the right wing, and she has been somebody who has
Speaker 8: been turning up at Turning Point USA, and she is
Speaker 8: somebody who is attractive to people on his side. So
Speaker 8: when you think of it from that perspective, it's not
Speaker 8: that surprising. But I think in the end, if you
Speaker 8: go back to what he did with Mike Pence, the
Speaker 8: reality is he's gonna want somebody who brings something to
Speaker 8: the table like the evangelicals, and who does not steal
Speaker 8: his thunder and the earned media. And so I think
Speaker 8: those two things combined. You know, perhaps we aren't seeing
Speaker 8: the complete list yet, and we will, that'll be forthcoming.
Speaker 8: But it's gonna be fun because this looks like it
Speaker 8: may be a very long general election, so we may
Speaker 8: have a lot of time to think about the veepsteaks.
Speaker 5: Indeed, can't wait. Gonna be very very exciting. Chap And
Speaker 5: I want to ask you though about something else that
Speaker 5: Trump said in that town hall on Fox last night.
Speaker 5: He was talking about all the legal issues he's facing,
Speaker 5: including that ruling that came down in New York that
Speaker 5: he has to pay well over three hundred perhaps over
Speaker 5: four hundred million dollars in that civil suit related to
Speaker 5: the Trump organization. He compared that to what happened to
Speaker 5: Alexi Navalney, who died in Russia in a prison in
Speaker 5: the Arctic last week. He said, it is a form
Speaker 5: of Navalney, it is a form of communism or fascism.
Speaker 5: Who is buying that argument that these things are in
Speaker 5: any way comparable.
Speaker 9: Well, first of all, as supporters, the people who support
Speaker 9: Donald Trump, you know, believe the things that he says.
Speaker 9: What I would say about some of the things Trump
Speaker 9: says is he you know, he has his style, and
Speaker 9: the way he says things tends people tend to grasp
Speaker 9: onto the way he says things, and you know, talk
Speaker 9: about how awful it is when the point that he's
Speaker 9: trying to make is about you know, political opponents coming
Speaker 9: after they're using the courts and the court system and
Speaker 9: and sort of trying to use every method other than
Speaker 9: the ballot box to defeat their opponents, which is what
Speaker 9: he feels like is happening to him and his supporters
Speaker 9: certainly feel like it's happening to him, and even non
Speaker 9: Trump Republicans are very uncomfortable with the way things seem
Speaker 9: to be going down. You know, the Attorney General of
Speaker 9: New York said she was going to find a crime
Speaker 9: to prosecute him for right. That's not how prosecutors in
Speaker 9: this country are supposed to conduct themselves. So it makes
Speaker 9: people wonder what exactly is going on. So to answer
Speaker 9: your point, I think the people, you know, he needs
Speaker 9: to keep his people motivated. Saying stuff like that will
Speaker 9: keep it motivated. And to I forgot who made the
Speaker 9: point earlier. I think it was Genie about his just
Speaker 9: mastery of earned media. Saying things like that gets him
Speaker 9: right back in the news, gets him right back to
Speaker 9: the top of the top of the hour on every
Speaker 9: single show, gets his supporters all up and angry. He
Speaker 9: probably can raise money off of it, so there is
Speaker 9: a method to his madness. Do we like what he
Speaker 9: says all the time? No, of course we don't. But
Speaker 9: oh hope that answered your question a little bit. That's
Speaker 9: that's fill about there.
Speaker 2: It is quite a line. When asked about the you know,
Speaker 2: the fine from his New York business fraud case, he
Speaker 2: said quote. It is a form of Navonniquote with our panel,
Speaker 2: great conversation, shape and faith. Thank you for being with
Speaker 2: us here in New York. Genie Shanzino in Washington, DC, you're.
Speaker 1: Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can just
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Speaker 5: Kaylee Lines and Joe Matthew on Bloomberg TV and Radio
Speaker 5: live from both Washington where I am and New York
Speaker 5: where Joe Matthew is today and as Charlie was just
Speaker 5: checking the markets though, I'm doing my hourly scroll of
Speaker 5: my ex feed and you know what caught my attention
Speaker 5: yesterday on X Joe. It was a post from Stephen Chung,
Speaker 5: who's a spokesperson for the Trump campaign, responding to what
Speaker 5: Nikki Haley said in her State of the Race speech
Speaker 5: in South Carolina yesterday, in which she said she feels
Speaker 5: no need to kiss the ring, the ring being Trump's,
Speaker 5: she has no fear of Trump's retribution. He said She's
Speaker 5: going to drop down to kiss ass when she quits,
Speaker 5: like she always does, to which her campaign manager, Betsy
Speaker 5: Anthony responded, what a move, Stephen Chung is key to
Speaker 5: winning back suburban women, Joe.
Speaker 2: Pretty remarkable language to see this thrown around in a
Speaker 2: public space like that, Kaylee. But you know, it does
Speaker 2: kind of fulfill a theme, or at least underscore a
Speaker 2: theme of this campaign, whether it's misogynistic comments from Donald
Speaker 2: Trump about women or just the fight for suburban women.
Speaker 2: Going back all the way before the Roe decision, it
Speaker 2: was Trump himself who said that that would be stupid
Speaker 2: that we will lose suburban women in there for the election.
Speaker 2: And based on some of the elections that we have seen,
Speaker 2: including the mid terms, he might have been onto something.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and we'll see how potent of force it still
Speaker 5: is come November of this year, when women especially go
Speaker 5: back to their voting booth. So we wanted to dig
Speaker 5: more into this subject. Joining us now and pleased to
Speaker 5: say as Jane Hall, she's American University Associate Professor of
Speaker 5: Journalism and Media Studies. Jane, great to have you on
Speaker 5: the program as we look ahead just four days from now,
Speaker 5: not even getting to November, but to South Carolina, the
Speaker 5: primary in which Trump and Nikki Haley are competing just
Speaker 5: a few days from now. The Suffolk University USA Today
Speaker 5: poll on that race, released yesterday showed forty percent of
Speaker 5: women said they would support Haley. Fifty eight percent said
Speaker 5: they would support Trump. So does he really have a
Speaker 5: problem with female voters or maybe just not one in
Speaker 5: South Carolina?
Speaker 7: He has got a problem with female voters. And I
Speaker 7: am so glad you all are talking about this today.
Speaker 7: You know, she is staying in the race against a
Speaker 7: barrage of hate, hateful statements that unfortunately, Trump has a
Speaker 7: history of attacking her husband's military service, attacking her as
Speaker 7: an impostor because he said she went up there in
Speaker 7: her fancy dress at New Hampshire and there are all
Speaker 7: these men frankly behind her, Tim Scott, Vivik Pramaswami laughing,
Speaker 7: and there's laughter in the audience. And if you're a
Speaker 7: woman watching that, I do not think that that is
Speaker 7: what you want to see in somebody you're going to
Speaker 7: vote for for president. I think she's playing the long game.
Speaker 7: As your previous guest said, we don't know what it's
Speaker 7: going to look like in November. She is saying to
Speaker 7: the media, also, why do you keep asking me? And
Speaker 7: I think this is a really good point. I'm a
Speaker 7: student of media coverage. I've written a lot about this.
Speaker 7: Why do you keep asking me when I'm getting out?
Speaker 7: Why don't you ask whether he's going to win the
Speaker 7: general election? Now she may not win, but I have
Speaker 7: to say that this kind of attitude towards women gets
Speaker 7: women out to vote. I mean, after twenty sixteen, we
Speaker 7: had the second year of the Woman, when women voted
Speaker 7: to bring many more women into Congress. After Trump won
Speaker 7: in twenty sixteen, the gender gap, as you all know well,
Speaker 7: between women voters for the Democrats is very high. Now
Speaker 7: Trump is Trump, you know, has cut into Latino voters
Speaker 7: in some ways. I mean, we'll have to see how
Speaker 7: this all plays out, but I think that people may
Speaker 7: be selling Nikki Haley short. You know, she will probably
Speaker 7: lose in South Carolina, but I don't think that that
Speaker 7: should be interpreted as she should get out or frankly,
Speaker 7: whether she might not ultimately either be positions herself for
Speaker 7: a soubsequent presidential or she might even get votes. I mean,
Speaker 7: I know a lot of young women who might vote
Speaker 7: for her because they see what quit kind of barrage
Speaker 7: she's taking.
Speaker 2: Well, Jane, what do you think of the way she's
Speaker 2: handling it? Because Nikki Haley has begun referring to the fellas,
Speaker 2: and this has been part of her narrative the past
Speaker 2: couple of weeks. I got rid of all the fellas.
Speaker 2: I'm just down to the last one, she says. She's
Speaker 2: made it a point of humor. She's been self deprecating
Speaker 2: in talking about this. Is that the right approach?
Speaker 7: I think?
Speaker 6: So?
Speaker 7: You know, I think she's I have to say, just
Speaker 7: speaking personally, I think she's handling this very well. You know,
Speaker 7: she got choked up talking about how he attacked her
Speaker 7: husband's military deployment, but largely dealing with this as she's
Speaker 7: kind of cutting him down to size, I think in
Speaker 7: a way and other men by saying, you know, I
Speaker 7: am going to push back, I am not going to respond.
Speaker 7: I mean, women always have a hard time with this
Speaker 7: kind of stuff if they get too emotional. They're too emotional.
Speaker 7: So to say the fellas, to say, you know, to
Speaker 7: kind of laugh at him, I think is part of
Speaker 7: what's driving him crazy. I'm not speaking to him, but
Speaker 7: I would be willing to bet that the fact that
Speaker 7: she's not getting out when all these other people have
Speaker 7: gotten out who condemned him. I mean, she's playing it,
Speaker 7: I think very wisely. The only way probably that she
Speaker 7: can play it is to say, oh, come on, you know,
Speaker 7: you all know that this is ridiculous what he's saying.
Speaker 7: She could be responding and saying he's racist and sexist,
Speaker 7: but I think it's wiser to probably say, you know,
Speaker 7: I'm not going to respond that way. I'm going to say, hey,
Speaker 7: isn't he ridiculous? That's what I personally think is what's
Speaker 7: going on with her.
Speaker 5: What about her handling of the abortion issue in particular.
Speaker 5: She has said repeatedly that presidential candidates need to be
Speaker 5: honest with the American people about what could get sixty
Speaker 5: voter in the Senate. But what that essentially has been
Speaker 5: is her not actually committing to any week at which
Speaker 5: she thinks abortion should be banned, not taking a firm
Speaker 5: stance on this very critical, as we have seen in
Speaker 5: the midterms, reproductive issue that's on the minds of voters
Speaker 5: when they head to the polls. Is her lack of
Speaker 5: taking a firm stance on the abortion issue, something that's
Speaker 5: likely to actually hurt her with the women who may
Speaker 5: be more likely to pick her over Trump and yet
Speaker 5: may not like what they see on that.
Speaker 7: Well, you know, I think that's a really good point
Speaker 7: she has. You know, Trump tried to make the quote
Speaker 7: unquote practical case too, but he is the person who
Speaker 7: put three support Spreme Court justices. A lot of people
Speaker 7: think on there to overturn Rugby Wade. She is, I think,
Speaker 7: what you know, if you look at her stance, if
Speaker 7: she were to become the nominee, she would have to
Speaker 7: be more clear about what her stance is, you know,
Speaker 7: and I don't believe that. I mean, I think that
Speaker 7: would be tricky because there are a lot of people
Speaker 7: who've voted for Donald Trump in part because he you know,
Speaker 7: of his stance and evangelical voters. So so her not
Speaker 7: stating it specifically, I think is wise. But she's if
Speaker 7: she were to get more into into this, she would
Speaker 7: have to say is she for a band? What does
Speaker 7: she really mean about this? Now, she's sort of making
Speaker 7: the practical case a band would never pass. That's okay
Speaker 7: for now, but I think you're right, she would have
Speaker 7: to speak more specifically about what does she really believe
Speaker 7: about this, and she hasn't said that she opposes the
Speaker 7: overturn of Roe v. Wade as far as I know.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and she consistently says that she is pro life,
Speaker 5: so of course we keep that in mind as well. Jane,
Speaker 5: thank you so much for joining us today. Really appreciate
Speaker 5: your insight on this topic. Gene Hall, American University Associate
Speaker 5: Professor of Journalism and Media Studies and also author of
Speaker 5: Politics and the Media, Intersections and New Directions, and interesting
Speaker 5: to have the abortion conversation with her, in particular, especially
Speaker 5: in light of yesterday's ruling in Alabama, the Supreme Court
Speaker 5: there ruling that frozen embryos should be treated as children,
Speaker 5: raises a lot of questions about the future of IVF
Speaker 5: treatments that Something will continue to cover for you right
Speaker 5: here on Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
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