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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Rouno with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Balance of Power. I'm

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Speaker 2: Joe Matthew at Bloomberg World Headquarters in New York. We,

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Speaker 2: of course have a constant connection to what's happening in

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Speaker 2: the nation's capital, where most people are gone. Lawmakers on recess,

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Speaker 2: and as we told you, Republican leaders holding forth the

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Speaker 2: Big Confab in Miami at the Mandarin Oriental where the

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Speaker 2: real deals are made their annual leadership retreat over the

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Speaker 2: weekend and generating some news. Guys like Bob Good on

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Speaker 2: the Freedom Caucus are saying it out loud. Reports suggest

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Speaker 2: that guys like the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson

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Speaker 2: or saying it quietly behind closed doors. The government's going

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Speaker 2: to start shutting down pretty soon the first of March.

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Speaker 2: There's no plan to avoid that. That could change, of course,

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Speaker 2: with a full shutdown kicking in on the eighth of March.

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Speaker 2: If you listen to this program, you know the score here.

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Speaker 2: Lawmakers will have only three days to manage this when

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Speaker 2: they get back, and that's why folks like Jack Fitzpatrick

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Speaker 2: at Bloomberg Government are scratching their head right now to

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Speaker 2: figure out if there is really a path. And Jack

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Speaker 2: joins us as we speak the reporting today. Jack, when

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Speaker 2: you read the tip sheets, when you read the terminal,

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Speaker 2: would suggest that this might be unavoidable. What's your view?

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Speaker 3: It's not unavoidable yet. I'm not curing absolute alarm bells

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Speaker 3: and straight up warnings that there will be a shutdown.

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Speaker 3: But there are a few really tough issues. One just

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Speaker 3: being the calendar, the fact that the first four of

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Speaker 3: twelve bills are due on March first and the House

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Speaker 3: doesn't come back until February twenty eighth. Second, they have

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Speaker 3: just struggled with a variety of issues. There's not one

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Speaker 3: issue that's hold them up. But there was never an

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Speaker 3: initial agreement on how to approach policy. Riders the questions

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Speaker 3: of are we going to make any major policy changes

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Speaker 3: when we fund the government? The House Republicans are pushing

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Speaker 3: for a ton of things they've had to send up.

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Speaker 3: Usually when the subcommittee leaders who write the bills can't

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Speaker 3: solve every problem. They send up problems to the full

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Speaker 3: committee leaders or even to the Speaker. They've had to

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Speaker 3: send up more issues than ever before, according to Mike Simpson,

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Speaker 3: who's in charge of funding the Department of the Interior

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Speaker 3: as one example. So there are maybe dozens of just

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Speaker 3: unsolved policy debates and not a lot of time. So

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Speaker 3: it's a very challenging situation. But theoretically they can solve this,

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Speaker 3: get to a handshake deal, put a bill out and

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Speaker 3: vote on it in time if everybody is determined to

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Speaker 3: do so.

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Speaker 2: We talked to Tom Emmer about this last week. Jackie

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Speaker 2: told us on Bloomberg that the government was not going

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Speaker 2: to shut down and that there would not be another

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Speaker 2: cr that they were going to have a minibus approach,

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Speaker 2: you know, put some bills together, try to get some

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Speaker 2: fast action on the floor. If that happens, are we

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Speaker 2: talking about fulfilling the rest of the fiscal year? Is

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Speaker 2: this in fact a short term in the end that

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Speaker 2: gets us through a month, because I know you're looking

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Speaker 2: at April thirtieth. At that point, if it's not figured out,

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Speaker 2: we have an across the board budget cut that was

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Speaker 2: baked in the cake months ago as part of a

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Speaker 2: deal that Kevin McCarthy made, and it looks like we

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Speaker 2: might actually see that happen.

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Speaker 3: Yes, so there is not much of a short term

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Speaker 3: solution if they grip over their own feet over the

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Speaker 3: next week or so, if they cannot meet these March

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Speaker 3: first in March eighth deadlines, the House Republicans are so

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Speaker 3: determined not to put forth another continuing resolution, the vote

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Speaker 3: counting would be very, very difficult. You do face the

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Speaker 3: threat of a one percent across the board cut if

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Speaker 3: they're relying on a stop gap beyond April thirtieth, So

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Speaker 3: that adds another layer, another dimension to the negotiations. They

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Speaker 3: have not figured out exactly how they're going to package

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Speaker 3: these though I've asked a number of lawmakers. Is it

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Speaker 3: going to be a four bill package followed by an

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Speaker 3: eight bill package as the last stopgap would indicate. There's

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Speaker 3: not specifically a plan on how many bills they vote

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Speaker 3: on at each time, So that's another thing that they

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Speaker 3: have to figure out very very quickly before holding these votes.

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Speaker 2: I got to ask you about this game of survivor

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Speaker 2: that's being played in the House here as we spend

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Speaker 2: time with Jack Fitzpatrick on Bloomberg Radio and on YouTube Jacked.

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Speaker 2: The idea of potentially being fired is driving a lot

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Speaker 2: of decision making for Speaker Johnson. And the idea is that, well,

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Speaker 2: if he does a continuing resolution or maybe does a

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Speaker 2: mini bus approach that members of the Freedom Caucus, maybe

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Speaker 2: Marjorie Taylor Green, will trigger a motion to vacate. There

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Speaker 2: could be many different opportunities for this to happen. Enter

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Speaker 2: Josh gottheimer, He's got a resolution. This is a Democrat,

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Speaker 2: of course, a resolution that would essentially have new rules

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Speaker 2: applied to the motion of vacate would give Democrats a

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Speaker 2: chance to help protect the speaker. Is this the beginning

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Speaker 2: of some grand deal that Mike Johnson might use to

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Speaker 2: preserve his speakership.

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Speaker 3: There are a few reasons to think that he might

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Speaker 3: need to end up relying on Democratic votes or non votes.

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Speaker 3: For one, if he's trying to get a majority in

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Speaker 3: a vote for Speaker, then Democrats can help him, not

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Speaker 3: necessarily by voting for him, but by declining to cast

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Speaker 3: a vote, which would lower the threshold. It seems right

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Speaker 3: now the biggest threat would be over the way these

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Speaker 3: immigration talks and Ukraine aid have kind of melted down,

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Speaker 3: and if he does do something on Ukraine Aid without

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Speaker 3: a grand deal on immigration, but since there are some

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Speaker 3: Centrists pushing for a vote on at least limited measures,

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Speaker 3: you look to Representative Gotttheimer Ice book briefly to Representative

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Speaker 3: Golden Jerry Golden from Maine, who said he wants to

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Speaker 3: talk to the Speaker about that kind of scenario. There

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Speaker 3: may be democratic help depending on exactly what the deal is.

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Speaker 3: There are not a ton of Democrats who want to

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Speaker 3: broadcast that they would vote for a Republican or sit

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Speaker 3: out vote, but it is potentially on the table.

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Speaker 2: Jack Fitzpatrick, thank you, sir, as always reporting for Bloomberg Government.

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Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe to Jack's newsletter, by the way,

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Speaker 2: on budget at the Terminal and at Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew at World Headquarters in New York. When

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Speaker 2: you consider the lack of action, I mean, I don't

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Speaker 2: know if any of that made sense to you, but

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Speaker 2: it does seem that we're careening toward a likely shutdown.

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Speaker 2: And even if we're not, a standoff potentially between Speaker

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Speaker 2: Johnson and his own Republican conference, depending on the lever

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Speaker 2: he chooses to pull here, and we want to continue

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Speaker 2: the conversation with Patrick Murray's joining us from Monmouth University's

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Speaker 2: Polling Institute, where he is the director of operations. Patrick,

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Speaker 2: it's great to see you. We tend to ask you

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Speaker 2: about presidential favorability approval ratings and the horse race on

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Speaker 2: the campaign trail, which I will ask you about. But

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Speaker 2: how's Congress doing these days? We talk so much about

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden's approval rating? Are we in the single digits?

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Speaker 2: Where's Congress in terms of Americans' views of what they're

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Speaker 2: getting done?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well, we're getting We're not quite at the single digits,

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Speaker 4: but we're getting close. Fourteen percent of Americans approve of

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Speaker 4: the job that Congress is doing. Seventy nine percent disapprove.

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Speaker 4: And while we've seen numbers that are very close to

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Speaker 4: that before, that seventy nine percent number is the highest

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Speaker 4: that we've seen since we started pulling nationally back in

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Speaker 4: twenty thirteen. So there's a record high for congressional disapproval

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Speaker 4: right now.

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Speaker 2: A record high. I guess there's always room for new records.

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Speaker 4: Here, Patrick, you think, yeah, you think we're getting pretty

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Speaker 4: close to where you can't get them anymore.

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Speaker 2: But that's actually very true. When you play them against

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden's approval numbers, it starts to put things in

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Speaker 2: context here a little bit. America is sick of Washington, period.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, you know, Joe Biden's numbers are in

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Speaker 4: the high thirties to forty percent in most polls. It

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Speaker 4: was thirty eight in our poll. But Congress those numbers

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Speaker 4: have just just been for the last decade, have just

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Speaker 4: been bad. Even if you know, I think that we've

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Speaker 4: seen them as high as thirty five, closing in on

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Speaker 4: forty percent, but they have been in the twenties for

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Speaker 4: most of the past decade. And that's because of you know,

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Speaker 4: we were just talking about it. You know, Congress is broken.

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Speaker 4: They can't get together on big ticket items. Is that

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Speaker 4: they're looking to, you know, to protect their flanks, and

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Speaker 4: that trickles down. That's part of the problem that we've

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Speaker 4: seen in our polling all along, is that people say

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Speaker 4: they want by partisanship. We've asked them some questions about this.

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Speaker 4: They always say they want by partisanship. But in the end,

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Speaker 4: I think, you know, some of these leaders know that

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Speaker 4: you have to play to your your your wings, you know,

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Speaker 4: the extremes of your wings if you're going to get

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Speaker 4: re elected in a potentially contested primary, and that's what

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Speaker 4: it seems all about. So then in the end, Congress

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Speaker 4: is broken, and it's reflected in these and these poor

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Speaker 4: results that we get.

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Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you for Joe Biden, it's got to

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Speaker 2: be a head scratcher for the administration. We spend so

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Speaker 2: much time here talking about stronger than expected economic data recently,

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Speaker 2: whether it's the job market, whether it's overall economic growth

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Speaker 2: by way of GDP, whether it's prices. That's another problem here,

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Speaker 2: of course, with inflation being a little hotter than expected

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Speaker 2: at the beginning of this year, and you've found just

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Speaker 2: a third of Americans, one third field they're benefiting from

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Speaker 2: this current economy. It's not likely. And it got a

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Speaker 2: lot better between now and the election.

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Speaker 4: Patrick, And that's one of the things that I've been

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Speaker 4: explained to folks over the past few years, is that

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Speaker 4: this inflation factor is something that we haven't dealt with.

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Speaker 4: We're basically a generation so we've asked the same question

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Speaker 4: about the growing economy, and it includes a couple of

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Speaker 4: things that hadn't happened during the pandemic such as by

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Speaker 4: Dow Jones average and low unemployment so forth. But now

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Speaker 4: we're back to that situation. So we were asking the

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Speaker 4: same question that we asked before the pandemic, and Joe

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Speaker 4: Biden does a lot worse than his two predecessors on

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Speaker 4: this mark. As you mentioned, thirty three percent say they're

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Speaker 4: getting some benefit from this growing economy. Forty percent say

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Speaker 4: they're not getting any benefit at all. And you know,

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Speaker 4: if you look at Trump and if you look at Obama,

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Speaker 4: when we asked the question during their third terms, it

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Speaker 4: was only about a quarter of Americans who said that

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Speaker 4: they weren't getting any benefit from the growing economy then.

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Speaker 4: And I think the difference that we have with Joe

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Speaker 4: Biden is that the numbers were better in past administrations

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Speaker 4: because it was coming off of pretty consistent boom with

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Speaker 4: just some you know, some roadblocks or roadbumps along the way.

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Speaker 4: With Joe Biden, this inflation factor is significantly dick different

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Speaker 4: than what his predecessors had faced. And this is the

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Speaker 4: thing that keeps people some saying, yeah, the economy is booming,

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Speaker 4: but I'm still paying twenty percent more from my groceries

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Speaker 4: than I did four years ago. And that's really what's

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Speaker 4: holding up.

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Speaker 2: Back, even if you're making more than you were or

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Speaker 2: four years ago, even if you're making more than inflation,

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Speaker 2: which is really interesting to me here Patrick, this is

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Speaker 2: very difficult to quantify. People want the same grocery bill

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Speaker 2: they had in twenty nineteen before COVID, and talk about

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Speaker 2: some tough comparisons there and this case coming out of COVID.

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Speaker 2: My goodness, it's been a surge when you look at

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Speaker 2: the job market and so forth. But the fact of

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Speaker 2: the matter is, in many cases their wages have not

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Speaker 2: only kept up with, but topped inflation. The White House

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Speaker 2: cannot seem to connect with people on this.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is like a key thing where they just

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Speaker 4: simply cannot you know, get basically, it is just that

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Speaker 4: there's that Benchmarket's that twenty nineteen grocery build benchmarket. You

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Speaker 4: can't get away from it. And even if we just

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Speaker 4: talk in general about the growing economy and we ask people,

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Speaker 4: how much credit does Joe Biden, you know, even if

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Speaker 4: you're not getting benefit, how much credit does Joe Biden

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Speaker 4: get for the fact that these other factors are doing

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Speaker 4: better than they were before, And only about half will

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Speaker 4: give them at least grudgingly some credit for that. So

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Speaker 4: he can't even get credit for the things that are

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Speaker 4: happening elsewhere in the economy.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's true. As we spend time with Patrick Murray

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Speaker 2: from Monmouth University, important headline from this White House is

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Speaker 2: the President has wrestled with the idea of student loan

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Speaker 2: debt forgiveness, his administration announcing more than one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty thousand borrowers will receive one point two billion dollars

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Speaker 2: in student loan forgiveness under this program unveiled in January,

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Speaker 2: seeking to provide relief. Does this move the needle here

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Speaker 2: or these are not the folks the president needs to

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Speaker 2: worry about.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is really geared if you're just looking at

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Speaker 4: it in terms of its political impact in a presidential

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Speaker 4: election year. This is geared towards some base Democratic voters

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Speaker 4: that have drifted away from Joe Biden. These are particularly

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Speaker 4: lower income voters of color, black voters, Hispanic voters, because

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Speaker 4: they're the ones who are impacted significantly more by that

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Speaker 4: student loan debt in terms of their overall debt and

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Speaker 4: their economic well being.

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Speaker 2: As you find though in your research that when it

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Speaker 2: comes to helping poor families. Biden does better than Trump,

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Speaker 2: but much worse than Obama.

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Speaker 1: How come?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I get it. It's just this simple sense

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Speaker 4: that in big boom times with Obama that the rising

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Speaker 4: tide raises all boats. I think was kind of kind

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Speaker 4: of this sense, and it's not here. And it's interesting,

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Speaker 4: you know, that student loan thing, because when we ask

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Speaker 4: about student loans, majority of voters overall are against, including Democrats,

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Speaker 4: are against relieving all debt because there's a sense you

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Speaker 4: entered that debt. But it's different among Black voters. It's

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Speaker 4: different among Hispanic voters, and that's a core group that

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Speaker 4: Biden needs to get back on his side. He still

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Speaker 4: has a majority of them supporting him, but nowhere near

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Speaker 4: the two thirds or more majority that he had in

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: Patrick, we started our conversation talking about congress woeful approval ratings.

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Speaker 2: If we have a shutdown, I suspect that this pulls

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Speaker 2: pretty can consistently when you're looking at blame game and

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Speaker 2: what people think of Congress. Would that be something Republicans

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Speaker 2: should worry about?

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Speaker 1: Are both parties?

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Speaker 4: I think you know in the in the end, it's

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Speaker 4: it's both parties should worry about it. The Republicans may

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Speaker 4: be a little bit more because you know, we've seen

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Speaker 4: this gameplay out a little bit as partisan voters get

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Speaker 4: more entrenched in just supporting one side or the other.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't matter to them what happens. They'll blame the

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Speaker 4: other side. But there still is a core group of voters.

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Speaker 4: They're small, but they're going to be decisive in a

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Speaker 4: high turnout election where a lot of these margins are

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Speaker 4: going to be very thin, both for the president and

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Speaker 4: the electoral College and some key states, but also for

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Speaker 4: some members of Congress up for reelection where this sense

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Speaker 4: that Congress is broken. Those voters are our voters who

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Speaker 4: are unhappy with a focus on social issues like abortion.

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Speaker 4: They want to go back to bread and butter issues.

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Speaker 4: You know, what are you doing on taxes? What are

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Speaker 4: you doing on the economy? And this kind of sense

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Speaker 4: that you can't even keep the government open will probably

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Speaker 4: on the margins have more of a negative impact on

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Speaker 4: Republicans and Democrats.

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Speaker 2: Patrick Murray, you have the best background on the show

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Speaker 2: so far today. If you were with us on YouTube,

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Speaker 2: you'd see my favorite Richard Nixon poster behind him there.

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Speaker 2: It's great to see if Patrick come back and see

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Speaker 2: us soon from Monmouth University. He's the director of the

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Speaker 2: Polling Institute. A deep dive, a great clinic with Patrick

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Speaker 2: here on the fastest show in politics, This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: We haven't even mentioned Ukraine and Israel war Taiwan for

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Speaker 2: that matter. The Emergency Supplemental funding request Kayley that passed

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Speaker 2: the Senate but does not appear to have have a

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Speaker 2: path in the House. There's an incredible debate happening right

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Speaker 2: now while that is on hold in Washington before the

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Speaker 2: UN Security Council.

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Speaker 5: Isn't there, Yeah, there is regarding Israel and the actions

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Speaker 5: it is taking in the Gaza strip the threat it

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Speaker 5: poses to civilian life as we have seen civilian casualties

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Speaker 5: according to the Health Ministry in Gaza that are roughly

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Speaker 5: at thirty thousand.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 5: The US yesterday vetoing a security Council resolution that would

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Speaker 5: have called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. That resolution,

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Speaker 5: of course is put forward by Algeria, which is the

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Speaker 5: Arab member that is rotating on the Security Council currently.

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Speaker 5: But the reason for the US veto this time was

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Speaker 5: they have an alternative Joe, a ceasefire still but of

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Speaker 5: a temporary nature.

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Speaker 2: That's exactly right, and so we'll see. Of course the

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Speaker 2: US with veto power blocking this first draft. Now maybe

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Speaker 2: the US version will be taken up. That's where Carmel

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Speaker 2: Arbit comes in with the Atlantic Council. Carmela has been

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Speaker 2: a a reliable voice for US helping to understand the

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Speaker 2: contours of all of this since the war began. Senior

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Speaker 2: fellow at the Atlantic Council for Middle East Programs and

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Speaker 2: the Skullcroft Middle East Security Initiative. Cartmeil, thanks for being

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Speaker 2: with us well. The US version of this cease fire

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Speaker 2: pass the Security Council.

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Speaker 6: I think what's really remarkable, and you noted this earlier,

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Speaker 6: is that the US has really been unwavering in its

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Speaker 6: support for Israel during this war. And we've seen that

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Speaker 6: really from day one, where they have said Israel has

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Speaker 6: a right to defend itself to take out him US,

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Speaker 6: and we will stand with it. It has defended Israel

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Speaker 6: at the ICJ today, and as you noted, is bringing

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Speaker 6: forth its own proposal in front of the UN. What

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Speaker 6: it has sought to do is to essentially shield Israel

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Speaker 6: from international community pressure to immediately pursue a permanent ceasefire.

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Speaker 6: What the US is calling for instead is the release

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Speaker 6: of all hostages in exchange for a temporary ceasefire. Whether

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Speaker 6: or not it will pass remains to be seen.

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Speaker 5: Well, Carmeil, how telling is it to you that we

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Speaker 5: are using the words the US is using the words

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Speaker 5: temporary cease fire, when before it was pauses, I.

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Speaker 6: Would say, potato, potato. The truth is in practice, Really,

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Speaker 6: those are.

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Speaker 7: The thing seemed.

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Speaker 5: It mattered initially.

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Speaker 6: It mattered because the rhetoric mattered to the people who

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Speaker 6: were hearing it. So Israel needed to hear at the

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Speaker 6: beginning of this war that the United States was going

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Speaker 6: to stand behind it through a pause, and by not

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Speaker 6: using the word ceasefire, they avoided joining the international community

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Speaker 6: and pressuring Israel to stop its operation in Gazo or

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Speaker 6: to restrain itself. The US has shifted in its rhetoric

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Speaker 6: in part because as the war has gone on, the

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Speaker 6: toll has been, in fact devastating. It's been devastating for

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Speaker 6: nearly thirty thousand Gozins who have been killed, and it's

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Speaker 6: remained devastating for Israelis who are displaced from their homes

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Speaker 6: and remain in fear so long as Hamas remains in power. Said,

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Speaker 6: the US is also conscious of its own domestic constituency

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Speaker 6: and the pushback that it is getting for its support

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Speaker 6: for Israel, and so with that in mind, they've started

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Speaker 6: to adopt language like a temporary ceasefire, mirroring calls for

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Speaker 6: a permanent ceasefire, but not actually demanding it. And so

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Speaker 6: in practice the reality is the same. The question will

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Speaker 6: only be that through negotiations how long a pause or

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Speaker 6: a ceasefire actually lasts.

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Speaker 2: The vote in the Security Council yesterday fifteen members was

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Speaker 2: thirteen to one the UK abstained Carmeil. What did the

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Speaker 2: other members think of the US veto.

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Speaker 6: The United States faces a huge amount of opposition and

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Speaker 6: pressure around the world, particularly among its Arab allies, for

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Speaker 6: its support for Israel. That's not new to this conflict.

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Speaker 6: That's something that has gone on for a long time.

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Speaker 6: But the US has also shown that it is willing

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Speaker 6: to stand up at the UN, to stand on its

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Speaker 6: own two feet, to use its veto power at the

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Speaker 6: Security Council to assert itself as a world leader. The

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Speaker 6: reality is that the international community and specifically the UN,

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Speaker 6: has been ineffective to date in driving peace or progress

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Speaker 6: between Israelis and Palestinians. That has been done most effectively,

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Speaker 6: although with limits, between the parties themselves, through the support

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Speaker 6: of negotiations and through the support of countries like the

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Speaker 6: United States and other Arab allies who are bringing the

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Speaker 6: countries together behind closed doors.

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Speaker 5: Well, Carmilla, as you talk about the US standing up

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Speaker 5: to those at the UN, I wonder about the US

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Speaker 5: standing up more so the Biden President Biden, specifically to

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Speaker 5: Benjamin Netanyahu. One of our opinion columnists here at Bloomberg,

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Speaker 5: Andreas Kluth, had a peace out this morning. That says,

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Speaker 5: the right wing government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and

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Speaker 5: it's seemingly indiscriminate war in the Gaza Strip, which may

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Speaker 5: yet be ruled genocidal, is leaving Biden little choice. He

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Speaker 5: must distance himself if he doesn't want to sacrifice American

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Speaker 5: credibility in the so called Global South forever? Is that really?

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Speaker 5: What is it risk?

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Speaker 6: Here? I think that Joe Biden is dealing with a

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Speaker 6: difficult dilemma in that he deeply supports Israel, the state,

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Speaker 6: to the country, the cause, but she has always had

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Speaker 6: challenges with Natanyapu, and we have seen that all the

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Speaker 6: way through. He does not support the government itself or

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Speaker 6: many of the positions that Natanyapu has pursued. Particularly is Natagnan,

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Speaker 6: who has both veered to the right with his righting government,

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Speaker 6: but also is making decisions in many cases that are

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Speaker 6: motivated by his own personal interests in remaining in power

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Speaker 6: as he faces corruption charges. And so those tensions have

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Speaker 6: always been there, and so Biden has done a really

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Speaker 6: good job of differentiating between the needs of the State

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Speaker 6: of Israel and the politics of Nataniyapu. We are seeing

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Speaker 6: that conflict really come into the spotlight, and I would

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Speaker 6: frankly expect it to worsen as we come into the

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Speaker 6: Ramadan holiday, where Natanya, who was thinking very much about

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Speaker 6: his domestic political audience, and Biden is much more concerned

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Speaker 6: about the safety and security of the region and the

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Speaker 6: US's role.

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Speaker 2: Carmel that US proposal for the Security Council that we're

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Speaker 2: talking about here warns against an Israeli assault on Rafa.

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Speaker 2: We're separately seeing stories today on the terminal of the

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Speaker 2: UK IS considering restricting arm sales to Israel if, in fact,

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Speaker 2: Israel launches an offensive in Rafa. It appears that it's

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Speaker 2: just a matter of timing here. It's a question of when,

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Speaker 2: not if that occurs. Will that be a turning point

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Speaker 2: in Western support for Israel.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, So the Israelis say that they have taken out

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Speaker 6: about half of Hamas operatives and that Rafa really remains

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Speaker 6: the one major stronghold of Hamas battalions. It's notable that

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Speaker 6: Israeli operatives extracted to hostile who are being held in Rafa.

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Speaker 6: This is really only the second time they've successfully done

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Speaker 6: this through an operation. And so the Israelis have made

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Speaker 6: clear that in order to achieve their objectives in Gaza

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Speaker 6: removing Hamas from power, that they believe they must enter Rafa.

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Speaker 6: This is, as you know, deeply concerning for the international community.

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Speaker 6: There are more than one and a half million Kalstinian

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Speaker 6: civilians who have been displaced into Rafa, who have been

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Speaker 6: pushed further to the south. Many have been displaced multiple

438
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 6: times or living in tent encampments. If they are displaced

439
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,240
Speaker 6: yet again, we could be talking about only a worsened

440
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:39,160
Speaker 6: humanitarian crisis in the region. It will cause significant tensions

441
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 6: between Israel and the international community, and that's part of

442
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 6: the reason that the US is trying to fold this

443
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 6: in through a UN effort, but really also focusing on

444
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,439
Speaker 6: negotiations privately with the Israelis, where they have insisted that

445
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:56,400
Speaker 6: they must put forward a credible, implementable proposal for dealing

446
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 6: with those civilians.

447
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 5: All right, Karmil, thank you so much as always for

448
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,960
Speaker 5: joining us, Carmel Arbet joining us from the Atlantic Council.

449
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 5: And as we talk about Rafa, Joe, we did hear

450
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:09,439
Speaker 5: from Israeli Minister Benny Gance earlier today who said an

451
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 5: operation in Rafa will begin after the population is evacuated

452
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 5: from the area. Reiterates that if there is no hostage deal,

453
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,719
Speaker 5: which he does say there are signs that could move forward,

454
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:22,360
Speaker 5: the Israeli military will operate in Rafa during Ramadan.

455
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,640
Speaker 2: It's fascinating stuff as we understand moment by moment what's

456
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,199
Speaker 2: happening over there. Kaylee will of course keep our listeners

457
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 2: and viewers attuned to what's happening at the Security Council.

458
00:24:31,600 --> 00:24:32,400
Speaker 2: The panel's next.

459
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:39,919
Speaker 1: On Bloomberg, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

460
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 1: Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and

461
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 1: then roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on

462
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

463
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

464
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 2: From World Headquarters in New York. Kayley is in Washington,

465
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 2: d C. The most frequently asked question on this program,

466
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:00,920
Speaker 2: I think since the beginning of the year, Kaylee, or

467
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 2: at least since Iowa, has been when is Nicki Haley

468
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 2: going to drop out of the race? Pretty tough for

469
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 2: Nicki Haley, I guess, particularly when she continues to raise

470
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 2: gobs of money. It's a fascinating dual narrative here. We

471
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 2: had our fundraising deadline last night. We're looking at the

472
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 2: numbers today, Kaylee. For the first time, she outraised Donald Trump.

473
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, raised sixteen and a half million dollars in the

474
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 5: month of January, which of course is when we saw

475
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:29,679
Speaker 5: her coming in third in Iowa, coming in a distant

476
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 5: second in New Hampshire, when hopes had been higher for

477
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 5: her performance in that state, and yet she still was

478
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 5: able to raise that amount relative to former President Trump,

479
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,679
Speaker 5: who took in just eight point eight million dollars for

480
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:43,880
Speaker 5: his campaign. And of course you have to think about

481
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 5: the money coming in versus the money going out, because

482
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 5: the Trump campaign spent more money than it raised. Their

483
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 5: burn last month was eleven point four million dollars. And

484
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 5: it speaks to a very tricky financial picture for the

485
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 5: former president who has a lot of legal bills.

486
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 2: He needs right another three million dollar dollars from the

487
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 2: leadership pack Save America just for attorney's fees in the

488
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:08,639
Speaker 2: month of January. And we're talking about trials beginning later

489
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 2: in this calendar year, Kayley. But there were a lot

490
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 2: of interesting narratives to come out of this. Joe Biden

491
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,159
Speaker 2: continues to out raise everybody.

492
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 5: Forty two million dollars in January. He's sitting on a

493
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,680
Speaker 5: pretty pile of one hundred and thirty million dollars. I

494
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 5: guess the question is how well can you put that

495
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:29,160
Speaker 5: to loose use in a general election campaign when right

496
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 5: now you are lagging behind Trump in most polls, especially

497
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 5: in swing states. So on that note, let's get to

498
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 5: our political panel joining us now with me here in Washington,

499
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 5: Genie Shanzano, our Bloomberg Politics contributor, and with Joe and

500
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,679
Speaker 5: New York Chape and Fay Act a managing director and

501
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 5: Republican strategist. So Genie, just to start with you, we

502
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 5: often talk about how Trump is just a different kind

503
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 5: of candidate. He gets all of this free earned media

504
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 5: going in and out of court. Yes, may cost him

505
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 5: money in attorney's fees, but it also gets him airtime

506
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 5: because all the networks are covering it. To what extent

507
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 5: is traditional camp financing matter to a candidate like him.

508
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,439
Speaker 8: You know, it has been so fascinating to watch Donald Trump.

509
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,119
Speaker 8: I was just thinking back to twenty sixteen when I

510
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 8: would say, you know, sort of naive things like Hillary

511
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:15,680
Speaker 8: Clinton likely has the upper hand because she raised famously

512
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 8: over one billion dollars. But Donald Trump obviously won, and

513
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 8: he won pretty handily in the electoral college, and part

514
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 8: of that was because of this earned media. And he

515
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 8: is such a master at getting that earned media in

516
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 8: a way other politicians like Hillary Clinton, like Joe Biden

517
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 8: have not been as proficient as so he can still

518
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 8: do that and certainly these court cases will help. But

519
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 8: as you were, just talking to Joe about the burn

520
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,639
Speaker 8: rate is tremendous. I'm thinking, you know, you're reporting he

521
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 8: spent how much on legal fees in three million in

522
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 8: January and the court case is that barely kicked in.

523
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 8: Imagine as we get into March and then April and May,

524
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 8: so he's gonna have hefty bills. The burn rate's gonna

525
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 8: be higher. But nobody is more masterful than Donald Trump

526
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 8: at getting that free media. So that is going to

527
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:03,879
Speaker 8: be important. And that's why Joe Biden, this juggernaut that

528
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 8: he is, a fundraising has got to use the time

529
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,120
Speaker 8: now to fundraise big and they are doing.

530
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 2: That, they sure are. I'm going to put a finer

531
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 2: point on what Kaylee was mentioning Chapin in terms of

532
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 2: Donald Trump, the exception to every rule. He's not even

533
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,639
Speaker 2: been on the air in South Carolina. He's about to

534
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,159
Speaker 2: win the primary by twenty to thirty points against the

535
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 2: hometown candidate here, and so I wonder is fundraising actually

536
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 2: a mechanism for him to pay legal fees as opposed

537
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:34,639
Speaker 2: to pay for the campaign, the advertising and all the

538
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 2: traditional stuff. Because if he's the king of earned media,

539
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 2: what does it matter?

540
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 9: Well, he is the ultimate disruptor in politics, right, I mean,

541
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 9: he turns every rule on its head. You know, it

542
00:28:43,960 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 9: cuts both ways. The you know, his name recognition has

543
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,040
Speaker 9: got to be close to one hundred percent, so electorally,

544
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 9: the people who have not made up their minds yet

545
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 9: about the two candidates or the presumably two candidates, that

546
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 9: that group is shrinking, I think by and he does

547
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 9: have a lot of legal jeopardy going on, and that

548
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 9: is what is eating up all of his fundraising. But

549
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 9: his base is so behind him, you know, forcefully behind him,

550
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 9: that he can raise those small dollar donors fairly easily.

551
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 9: I'd be curious to see the breakdown between Nicki Haley's

552
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 9: and Donald Trump's you know, small dollar grassroots donations. And

553
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 9: the other thing I would I would just point I

554
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 9: would make about the fundraising is as the non Trump

555
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 9: candidates sort of got whittled down to one, you know,

556
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 9: it was that they're voters. The money all of that

557
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 9: was always going to coal us or likely call us

558
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 9: around one person, which is what Nickki Haley is benefiting

559
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:40,959
Speaker 9: from right now. The problem numbers wise for her is

560
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 9: that he got more than everyone else combined, you know,

561
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 9: and all the polls and all the all the and

562
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 9: now that we're seeing election results, so so you know,

563
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 9: query whether she can make a dent electorally, but certainly

564
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 9: she'll have the funds to keep going because there are

565
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 9: a lot of people who just HiT's so polarized. You

566
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 9: either love Donald Trump where you don't or you don't, right,

567
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 9: and she's taking getting all the money.

568
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 5: I'd like to ask you about the fact that she's

569
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 5: getting money. This is Bloomberg. We talk about investments here.

570
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 5: Typically people don't like to put good money after bad investments.

571
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 5: There is no poll in which Nikki Haley shows that

572
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:15,120
Speaker 5: she can beat Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee.

573
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 5: There's no clear path. What does it say that people

574
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 5: are still throwing a ton of money at her as

575
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 5: she tries and ultimately very likely will fail.

576
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 9: That's a great question, you know. I always like to

577
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 9: say in campaign finance and fundraising for clients that you

578
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 9: know it's an investment, right, you have to prove to

579
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 9: the donor why they should invest in you. I think

580
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 9: it's a little different than that on the political side.

581
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 9: People are ideological. People give because they're emotional. The limits,

582
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 9: the federal limits are such that you know you can't

583
00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 9: be giving fifty thousand dollars one candidate through you know,

584
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 9: the traditional campaign apparatus, So that tampers that down a

585
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 9: little bit. And listen, you know, politics is about on

586
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 9: Campaigns are about putting yourself in the best possible position

587
00:30:56,760 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 9: to capitalize on opportunity. So that's what's happen happening right.

588
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 9: Who knows if President Trump will be in jail or

589
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 9: not right or who knows, you know, what his ability

590
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 9: to run after you know, he goes through this legal

591
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 9: process will be. So that's sort of what all the

592
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 9: Republicans earlier in this race we're planning on, right, be

593
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 9: in the best possible position when whatever happens happens. Right,

594
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 9: general election is in November, still a lifetime away. There's

595
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 9: still you know, questions as to who the candidates are

596
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 9: going to be. I don't know if they're real questions,

597
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 9: but there's still questions. So I think there's plenty of

598
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,320
Speaker 9: time for something. You know, I don't know what that

599
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 9: crazy thing would happen, because around President Trump, crazy things

600
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:37,040
Speaker 9: always happened. But to preclude him from being the nominee,

601
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 9: who knows, you know, and you know she'll run into

602
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 9: the convention. You know hope, you know, she's hoping she'll

603
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 9: run strong and have the money in this important see

604
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 9: what happens.

605
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 2: I don't know, Genie. We haven't seen the money from

606
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 2: the shoes yet, the gold sneakers, that's still pre order money.

607
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 2: And I'm just the jury's out until this happens. But

608
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 2: we're playing the deepstakes today after Donald Trump held a

609
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 2: town hall on Fox last evening. They are all very

610
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 2: familiar names, and I wonder if any of them might

611
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 2: move the needle for you, whether it's Ramaswami, Tim Scott somehow.

612
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 2: Ron de Santis is on this list. I don't think

613
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 2: we're going there Byron. Donald's also Florida Governor Christy Nome

614
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 2: and Tulsei Gabbert both on this so called short list, Genie,

615
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 2: is he gaslighting us? Or is this the actual list?

616
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 2: Will it be one of these?

617
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 4: Yeah?

618
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 8: I trust him completely. Joe Matthew never to gaslight anyone.

619
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 8: And I'm going to get you and Kayley those sneakers

620
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 8: as soon as this pre order session is over. A

621
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 8: little money, it's a lot of money, but it's you

622
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 8: guys are worth it, you know, I think you know

623
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 8: there's there were the name I think that stuck out

624
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 8: to most of us on the list from last night

625
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:45,959
Speaker 8: was Tulsi Gabbert. But you know, as you think about it,

626
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 8: you know, I like to follow what's going on in

627
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 8: the right wing, and she has been somebody who has

628
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 8: been turning up at Turning Point USA, and she is

629
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 8: somebody who is attractive to people on his side. So

630
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 8: when you think of it from that perspective, it's not

631
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 8: that surprising. But I think in the end, if you

632
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 8: go back to what he did with Mike Pence, the

633
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 8: reality is he's gonna want somebody who brings something to

634
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 8: the table like the evangelicals, and who does not steal

635
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 8: his thunder and the earned media. And so I think

636
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 8: those two things combined. You know, perhaps we aren't seeing

637
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 8: the complete list yet, and we will, that'll be forthcoming.

638
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:22,120
Speaker 8: But it's gonna be fun because this looks like it

639
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 8: may be a very long general election, so we may

640
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 8: have a lot of time to think about the veepsteaks.

641
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 5: Indeed, can't wait. Gonna be very very exciting. Chap And

642
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:33,239
Speaker 5: I want to ask you though about something else that

643
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 5: Trump said in that town hall on Fox last night.

644
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 5: He was talking about all the legal issues he's facing,

645
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 5: including that ruling that came down in New York that

646
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 5: he has to pay well over three hundred perhaps over

647
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 5: four hundred million dollars in that civil suit related to

648
00:33:45,600 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 5: the Trump organization. He compared that to what happened to

649
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 5: Alexi Navalney, who died in Russia in a prison in

650
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 5: the Arctic last week. He said, it is a form

651
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:57,719
Speaker 5: of Navalney, it is a form of communism or fascism.

652
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 5: Who is buying that argument that these things are in

653
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 5: any way comparable.

654
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 9: Well, first of all, as supporters, the people who support

655
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:09,240
Speaker 9: Donald Trump, you know, believe the things that he says.

656
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:13,240
Speaker 9: What I would say about some of the things Trump

657
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:16,719
Speaker 9: says is he you know, he has his style, and

658
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 9: the way he says things tends people tend to grasp

659
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 9: onto the way he says things, and you know, talk

660
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 9: about how awful it is when the point that he's

661
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 9: trying to make is about you know, political opponents coming

662
00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 9: after they're using the courts and the court system and

663
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 9: and sort of trying to use every method other than

664
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 9: the ballot box to defeat their opponents, which is what

665
00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 9: he feels like is happening to him and his supporters

666
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 9: certainly feel like it's happening to him, and even non

667
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,839
Speaker 9: Trump Republicans are very uncomfortable with the way things seem

668
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 9: to be going down. You know, the Attorney General of

669
00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 9: New York said she was going to find a crime

670
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 9: to prosecute him for right. That's not how prosecutors in

671
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 9: this country are supposed to conduct themselves. So it makes

672
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 9: people wonder what exactly is going on. So to answer

673
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:02,359
Speaker 9: your point, I think the people, you know, he needs

674
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 9: to keep his people motivated. Saying stuff like that will

675
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 9: keep it motivated. And to I forgot who made the

676
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 9: point earlier. I think it was Genie about his just

677
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 9: mastery of earned media. Saying things like that gets him

678
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 9: right back in the news, gets him right back to

679
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 9: the top of the top of the hour on every

680
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:18,319
Speaker 9: single show, gets his supporters all up and angry. He

681
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 9: probably can raise money off of it, so there is

682
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 9: a method to his madness. Do we like what he

683
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:23,840
Speaker 9: says all the time? No, of course we don't. But

684
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 9: oh hope that answered your question a little bit. That's

685
00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 9: that's fill about there.

686
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 2: It is quite a line. When asked about the you know,

687
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 2: the fine from his New York business fraud case, he

688
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:38,280
Speaker 2: said quote. It is a form of Navonniquote with our panel,

689
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:40,319
Speaker 2: great conversation, shape and faith. Thank you for being with

690
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 2: us here in New York. Genie Shanzino in Washington, DC, you're.

691
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:49,800
Speaker 1: Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can just

692
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roud

693
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:55,840
Speaker 1: Oto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

694
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

695
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 1: Just Say playing Bloomberg eleven.

696
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 5: Kaylee Lines and Joe Matthew on Bloomberg TV and Radio

697
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,439
Speaker 5: live from both Washington where I am and New York

698
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 5: where Joe Matthew is today and as Charlie was just

699
00:36:13,200 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 5: checking the markets though, I'm doing my hourly scroll of

700
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 5: my ex feed and you know what caught my attention

701
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 5: yesterday on X Joe. It was a post from Stephen Chung,

702
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:26,440
Speaker 5: who's a spokesperson for the Trump campaign, responding to what

703
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:28,760
Speaker 5: Nikki Haley said in her State of the Race speech

704
00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 5: in South Carolina yesterday, in which she said she feels

705
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,240
Speaker 5: no need to kiss the ring, the ring being Trump's,

706
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:36,439
Speaker 5: she has no fear of Trump's retribution. He said She's

707
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 5: going to drop down to kiss ass when she quits,

708
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 5: like she always does, to which her campaign manager, Betsy

709
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 5: Anthony responded, what a move, Stephen Chung is key to

710
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 5: winning back suburban women, Joe.

711
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:54,360
Speaker 2: Pretty remarkable language to see this thrown around in a

712
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 2: public space like that, Kaylee. But you know, it does

713
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 2: kind of fulfill a theme, or at least underscore a

714
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:06,480
Speaker 2: theme of this campaign, whether it's misogynistic comments from Donald

715
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 2: Trump about women or just the fight for suburban women.

716
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 2: Going back all the way before the Roe decision, it

717
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 2: was Trump himself who said that that would be stupid

718
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:18,960
Speaker 2: that we will lose suburban women in there for the election.

719
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:21,560
Speaker 2: And based on some of the elections that we have seen,

720
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:23,840
Speaker 2: including the mid terms, he might have been onto something.

721
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, and we'll see how potent of force it still

722
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:31,279
Speaker 5: is come November of this year, when women especially go

723
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 5: back to their voting booth. So we wanted to dig

724
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:36,200
Speaker 5: more into this subject. Joining us now and pleased to

725
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 5: say as Jane Hall, she's American University Associate Professor of

726
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:43,319
Speaker 5: Journalism and Media Studies. Jane, great to have you on

727
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 5: the program as we look ahead just four days from now,

728
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 5: not even getting to November, but to South Carolina, the

729
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 5: primary in which Trump and Nikki Haley are competing just

730
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 5: a few days from now. The Suffolk University USA Today

731
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 5: poll on that race, released yesterday showed forty percent of

732
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 5: women said they would support Haley. Fifty eight percent said

733
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:05,840
Speaker 5: they would support Trump. So does he really have a

734
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 5: problem with female voters or maybe just not one in

735
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 5: South Carolina?

736
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 7: He has got a problem with female voters. And I

737
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:15,760
Speaker 7: am so glad you all are talking about this today.

738
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 7: You know, she is staying in the race against a

739
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 7: barrage of hate, hateful statements that unfortunately, Trump has a

740
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 7: history of attacking her husband's military service, attacking her as

741
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 7: an impostor because he said she went up there in

742
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:35,440
Speaker 7: her fancy dress at New Hampshire and there are all

743
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:40,800
Speaker 7: these men frankly behind her, Tim Scott, Vivik Pramaswami laughing,

744
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 7: and there's laughter in the audience. And if you're a

745
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 7: woman watching that, I do not think that that is

746
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 7: what you want to see in somebody you're going to

747
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:51,480
Speaker 7: vote for for president. I think she's playing the long game.

748
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 7: As your previous guest said, we don't know what it's

749
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:57,920
Speaker 7: going to look like in November. She is saying to

750
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 7: the media, also, why do you keep asking me? And

751
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 7: I think this is a really good point. I'm a

752
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 7: student of media coverage. I've written a lot about this.

753
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 7: Why do you keep asking me when I'm getting out?

754
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 7: Why don't you ask whether he's going to win the

755
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 7: general election? Now she may not win, but I have

756
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 7: to say that this kind of attitude towards women gets

757
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 7: women out to vote. I mean, after twenty sixteen, we

758
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 7: had the second year of the Woman, when women voted

759
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 7: to bring many more women into Congress. After Trump won

760
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:32,240
Speaker 7: in twenty sixteen, the gender gap, as you all know well,

761
00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:36,160
Speaker 7: between women voters for the Democrats is very high. Now

762
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 7: Trump is Trump, you know, has cut into Latino voters

763
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 7: in some ways. I mean, we'll have to see how

764
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:45,560
Speaker 7: this all plays out, but I think that people may

765
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 7: be selling Nikki Haley short. You know, she will probably

766
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:52,359
Speaker 7: lose in South Carolina, but I don't think that that

767
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:56,720
Speaker 7: should be interpreted as she should get out or frankly,

768
00:39:56,800 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 7: whether she might not ultimately either be positions herself for

769
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 7: a soubsequent presidential or she might even get votes. I mean,

770
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:06,720
Speaker 7: I know a lot of young women who might vote

771
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 7: for her because they see what quit kind of barrage

772
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 7: she's taking.

773
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 2: Well, Jane, what do you think of the way she's

774
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:16,800
Speaker 2: handling it? Because Nikki Haley has begun referring to the fellas,

775
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:19,799
Speaker 2: and this has been part of her narrative the past

776
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 2: couple of weeks. I got rid of all the fellas.

777
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 2: I'm just down to the last one, she says. She's

778
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:28,040
Speaker 2: made it a point of humor. She's been self deprecating

779
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 2: in talking about this. Is that the right approach?

780
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 7: I think?

781
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 6: So?

782
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 7: You know, I think she's I have to say, just

783
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 7: speaking personally, I think she's handling this very well. You know,

784
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 7: she got choked up talking about how he attacked her

785
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:50,400
Speaker 7: husband's military deployment, but largely dealing with this as she's

786
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 7: kind of cutting him down to size, I think in

787
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:56,480
Speaker 7: a way and other men by saying, you know, I

788
00:40:57,239 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 7: am going to push back, I am not going to respond.

789
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 7: I mean, women always have a hard time with this

790
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 7: kind of stuff if they get too emotional. They're too emotional.

791
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 7: So to say the fellas, to say, you know, to

792
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:11,600
Speaker 7: kind of laugh at him, I think is part of

793
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 7: what's driving him crazy. I'm not speaking to him, but

794
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:16,840
Speaker 7: I would be willing to bet that the fact that

795
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:19,800
Speaker 7: she's not getting out when all these other people have

796
00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:23,239
Speaker 7: gotten out who condemned him. I mean, she's playing it,

797
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:27,319
Speaker 7: I think very wisely. The only way probably that she

798
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:30,319
Speaker 7: can play it is to say, oh, come on, you know,

799
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 7: you all know that this is ridiculous what he's saying.

800
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 7: She could be responding and saying he's racist and sexist,

801
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 7: but I think it's wiser to probably say, you know,

802
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 7: I'm not going to respond that way. I'm going to say, hey,

803
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 7: isn't he ridiculous? That's what I personally think is what's

804
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 7: going on with her.

805
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 5: What about her handling of the abortion issue in particular.

806
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 5: She has said repeatedly that presidential candidates need to be

807
00:41:57,239 --> 00:41:59,720
Speaker 5: honest with the American people about what could get sixty

808
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:02,399
Speaker 5: voter in the Senate. But what that essentially has been

809
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:04,879
Speaker 5: is her not actually committing to any week at which

810
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 5: she thinks abortion should be banned, not taking a firm

811
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:10,600
Speaker 5: stance on this very critical, as we have seen in

812
00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 5: the midterms, reproductive issue that's on the minds of voters

813
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:17,960
Speaker 5: when they head to the polls. Is her lack of

814
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:20,960
Speaker 5: taking a firm stance on the abortion issue, something that's

815
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:22,880
Speaker 5: likely to actually hurt her with the women who may

816
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 5: be more likely to pick her over Trump and yet

817
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:26,839
Speaker 5: may not like what they see on that.

818
00:42:28,080 --> 00:42:30,760
Speaker 7: Well, you know, I think that's a really good point

819
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 7: she has. You know, Trump tried to make the quote

820
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:38,439
Speaker 7: unquote practical case too, but he is the person who

821
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 7: put three support Spreme Court justices. A lot of people

822
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:45,879
Speaker 7: think on there to overturn Rugby Wade. She is, I think,

823
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 7: what you know, if you look at her stance, if

824
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:51,279
Speaker 7: she were to become the nominee, she would have to

825
00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 7: be more clear about what her stance is, you know,

826
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:57,360
Speaker 7: and I don't believe that. I mean, I think that

827
00:42:57,400 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 7: would be tricky because there are a lot of people

828
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 7: who've voted for Donald Trump in part because he you know,

829
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 7: of his stance and evangelical voters. So so her not

830
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:12,319
Speaker 7: stating it specifically, I think is wise. But she's if

831
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 7: she were to get more into into this, she would

832
00:43:15,560 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 7: have to say is she for a band? What does

833
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:21,360
Speaker 7: she really mean about this? Now, she's sort of making

834
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 7: the practical case a band would never pass. That's okay

835
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:27,960
Speaker 7: for now, but I think you're right, she would have

836
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 7: to speak more specifically about what does she really believe

837
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 7: about this, and she hasn't said that she opposes the

838
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 7: overturn of Roe v. Wade as far as I know.

839
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:43,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, and she consistently says that she is pro life,

840
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:46,400
Speaker 5: so of course we keep that in mind as well. Jane,

841
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 5: thank you so much for joining us today. Really appreciate

842
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 5: your insight on this topic. Gene Hall, American University Associate

843
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 5: Professor of Journalism and Media Studies and also author of

844
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 5: Politics and the Media, Intersections and New Directions, and interesting

845
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:02,520
Speaker 5: to have the abortion conversation with her, in particular, especially

846
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:05,239
Speaker 5: in light of yesterday's ruling in Alabama, the Supreme Court

847
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 5: there ruling that frozen embryos should be treated as children,

848
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 5: raises a lot of questions about the future of IVF

849
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:14,399
Speaker 5: treatments that Something will continue to cover for you right

850
00:44:14,400 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 5: here on Bloomberg.

851
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:21,759
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

852
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:24,719
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

853
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:27,399
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

854
00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at

855
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:32,400
Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.