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Speaker 1: The volume.

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Speaker 2: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntire.

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Speaker 1: What is up straight firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight

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Speaker 1: Fire for Wednesday, March twentieth.

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Speaker 3: The NCAA Tournament began with a bit.

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Speaker 1: Of a thud last night. I don't know, Wagner, Howard

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Speaker 1: was okay. Howard had three chances from deep win the final,

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Speaker 1: like five seconds, and they couldn't make any of them.

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Speaker 1: And then there was the Virginia game, and anybody who watched,

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Speaker 1: you know, three minutes of Virginia basketball this season knew

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Speaker 1: they were total garbage and did not belong in the tournament,

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Speaker 1: and they proceeded to put up one of the worst

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Speaker 1: performances I can remember in recent years. They're just not

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Speaker 1: a good basketball team, and they got smoked. So your

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Speaker 1: boys started out too, and Oho hit the parlay, Wagner

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Speaker 1: getting three and Colorado State money line, then Colorado State

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Speaker 1: Straight Up from Monday's podcast, listen.

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Speaker 3: The heater continues.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if it will definitely continue on to

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Speaker 1: tonight because tonight's games I don't feel as confident in

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Speaker 1: they're actually probably gonna be decent games. To break down

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Speaker 1: the entire tournament, we got my guy Ta coming on

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Speaker 1: the pod. You guys know him form football season. He's

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Speaker 1: really good. He no, I don't want to say he's

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Speaker 1: a slave to the numbers, but the numbers are his jam,

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Speaker 1: and that's really all he cares about. You know, you

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Speaker 1: could you could say narratives and you know what's his name,

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Speaker 1: Rick Barnes can't win the big game. You could do

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Speaker 1: all that stuff if you want, but he's all about

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Speaker 1: the numbers, about it, bout it. So we will break

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Speaker 1: down Cinderella's double digit seeds, favorites, bracket stuff, and and

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Speaker 1: when I decide what I'm firing on tonight, I'll post

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Speaker 1: them on the GRAM early lean, I guess I would

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Speaker 1: go Colorado, but I don't feel super confident in that,

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Speaker 1: you know, fade the Mountain West Conference obviously. Yeah, so

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Speaker 1: I believe I would go Colorado in the nightcap in

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Speaker 1: the first game. If you remember, I had Montana to

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Speaker 1: complete a three or fourteen parlay championship week and Montana

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Speaker 1: State got him. Montana State is not terrible, and I

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Speaker 1: would probably go moneyline parlay with Montana State and Colorado.

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Speaker 1: Not a ton of confidence, but if anything else jumps out,

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Speaker 1: I'll drop it on ig. But for now, let's get

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Speaker 1: to our guest, the Great Ta from clev Analytics.

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Speaker 4: You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows

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Speaker 4: everything when it comes to sports. I know what sports

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Speaker 4: fans want, but for everything he doesn't. He knows a

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Speaker 4: guy who does. Let's just say I know a guy

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Speaker 4: who knows a guy who knows another guy.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's welcome into straight fire.

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Speaker 1: You know him from football season, TA totally dominant when

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Speaker 1: it comes to the numbers. He has cashed in the

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Speaker 1: Super Contest in Vegas, and now we're bringing him on

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Speaker 1: for college hoops. Listen, college basketball is in a weird place, Ta,

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Speaker 1: Like people used to love it, you know, fifteen twenty

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Speaker 1: even maybe like ten years ago with the jalil okafor

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Speaker 1: Duke freshman team, and now it's just kind of it's

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Speaker 1: just not what it was. So regular season college hoops

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Speaker 1: nobody really pays attention to. However, there is a ton

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Speaker 1: of data out there that can help you win your

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Speaker 1: bracket pool, win your Calcutta all that. So TA puts

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Speaker 1: some stuff on the Internet that's just blowing people's minds.

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Speaker 1: So I thought I'll bring them on TA. What's the

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Speaker 1: feedback been like on your stuff that you posted on

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Speaker 1: Cleve Analytics.

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Speaker 4: What's going on, Jason, Yeah, I mean, I you know,

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Speaker 4: we're just talking before this. You know, I'm a NFL

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Speaker 4: guy for the most part. I used to love college

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Speaker 4: basketball growing up in the eighties and nineties and you know,

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Speaker 4: the old Big East and ACC and just all these

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Speaker 4: NBA players running around, and you know, now it's it's

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Speaker 4: totally different. So I just haven't had the time to

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Speaker 4: follow college basketball deep like a lot of people, you know,

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Speaker 4: so when you go to fill out these brackets, it's

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Speaker 4: hard to just you know, you don't know the players

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Speaker 4: and the teams really well. So for me, it's just

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Speaker 4: I've used you know, historical data in the tournament, using

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Speaker 4: a lot of the advanced metrics, using you know, mainly

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Speaker 4: Ken Pond data, which is great. It's out there for

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Speaker 4: everyone to grab. So I use that as a backdrop

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Speaker 4: for me to help fill out my bracket, and I

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Speaker 4: think it can be helpful for you know, I'm assuming

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Speaker 4: ninety plus percent of your audience is not you know,

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Speaker 4: they're not college basketball experts, and so you know, just

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Speaker 4: at least having the background on the types of teams

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Speaker 4: that profile to be national champions, you know historically, the

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Speaker 4: higher set of teams that historically have been prone for upsets,

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Speaker 4: the you know double digit seated teams that have a

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Speaker 4: shot to upset the big boys and kind of their profiles.

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Speaker 4: Like having that in your back pocket. You know, it's

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Speaker 4: not perfect, and the goal is not to make a

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Speaker 4: perfect bracket. It's just to beat you know, everybody else

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Speaker 4: in your in your pool. And so having that data

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Speaker 4: really is helpful, at least for me, and I think

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Speaker 4: for others, you know, creating you know, a bracket that

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Speaker 4: at least has a fighting chance of winning some money.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's it's a tough one because you know,

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Speaker 1: COVID kind of messed up college basketball and now you've

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Speaker 1: got like twenty five year old guys littered throughout the sport,

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Speaker 1: which is fine, I'm happy for them, but it's made

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Speaker 1: it tough to pay attention. And the freshmen just don't

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Speaker 1: have the value they once did because again you're eighteen

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Speaker 1: or nineteen going up against a twenty four year old,

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Speaker 1: like good luck, so ta When you look at the

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Speaker 1: historical numbers, how much have they changed in the last

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Speaker 1: three years, Because like I figured, like last year was

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Speaker 1: a massive outlier with like San Diego State making the

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Speaker 1: title game and who was FAU made a massive run,

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Speaker 1: Like just very strange things happened last year. What can

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Speaker 1: we learn from that and apply it to this year.

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Speaker 4: Well, you know, it's funny you say that it really

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Speaker 4: hasn't changed all that much. It's actually been a little

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Speaker 4: bit more predictable, I think when it comes to the

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Speaker 4: title winners. And we could talk about specifically, but you know,

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Speaker 4: the title winners have not been that you know, for

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Speaker 4: a tournament, for an event that is so quote unquote unpredictable,

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Speaker 4: you know, you can narrow down the potential champions pretty

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Speaker 4: pretty well. And using like I said, using the ken

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Speaker 4: Pom rankings. Even though Yukon was a four seed, they

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Speaker 4: were one of I think they were the sixth highest

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Speaker 4: or sorry, they were the fourth highest ken Pom team

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Speaker 4: and they were a four seed. That just tells you

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Speaker 4: how badly the NCAA committee does at putting together this bracket.

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Speaker 4: So if you look at the last I think it's

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Speaker 4: eight years, every single winner of the of the title

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Speaker 4: has been a top six ken Pom team entering the tournament. Okay,

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Speaker 4: So and if you go back, I mean you got

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Speaker 4: the Shabaz napier A Yukon team in twenty fourteen they

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Speaker 4: were twenty fifth. You have the Carmelo team in three

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Speaker 4: with Syracuse they were twenty second, and then you have

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Speaker 4: the Kemba Walker team with Yukon in twenty eleven they

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Speaker 4: were fifteenth. Every other team has been top six since

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Speaker 4: two thousand and one entering the tournament. So from that perspective,

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Speaker 4: like you could really narrow down the types of teams

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Speaker 4: that can win just based on that, and then there's

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Speaker 4: other things, like I said, my website goes into detail

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Speaker 4: like that, some of the defensive metrics and some of

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Speaker 4: the offensive metrics, like very very few teams that you know,

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Speaker 4: come in ranked above like sixty ninth in defense historically

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Speaker 4: have even had a shot of winning the title. So

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Speaker 4: you could really narrow down the types of teams. And

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Speaker 4: so last year Yukon was the fourth going into the

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Speaker 4: tournament and they won. That wasn't really that much of

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Speaker 4: a shock. It was just because they were a four seed.

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Speaker 4: It seemed like came out of no worse. San Diego

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Speaker 4: State wasn't your typical profile of a of a contender,

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Speaker 4: and they were a little bit higher. See I think

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Speaker 4: there were a five seed, but you know they too were,

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Speaker 4: you know, top twenty five in the Kempom ratings coming in,

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Speaker 4: so you know, you have plenty of teams that yeah,

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Speaker 4: I think there are twentieth, so they have plenty of

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Speaker 4: teams that fit that category. In Santy Ygo State was

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Speaker 4: one of them. I mean, like I said, well, we

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Speaker 4: can dive a little bit deeper. But Miami was a

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Speaker 4: little bit of an outlier because they were a team

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Speaker 4: that was really really good on off but just horrible

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Speaker 4: defensively when you look at their advanced metrics, and for

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Speaker 4: them to make the final four was a little bit

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Speaker 4: of an outlier. But in general, you know, they kind

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Speaker 4: of ran into a buzzsaw in Yukon and they couldn't

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Speaker 4: get over the hump. And that's typically what you see

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Speaker 4: with these teams that are not great on defense. They

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Speaker 4: just can't together five or six straight games and wins

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Speaker 4: to win a title. So it really wasn't that far

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Speaker 4: off of the norms last year, although no number one

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Speaker 4: seed made it, which is the first time that hasn't

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Speaker 4: happened in a while, but at least the winner wasn't

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Speaker 4: too fluky.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the Miami run basically feeds everybody's well, you need

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Speaker 1: good guard play, which is like the most basic thing ever,

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Speaker 1: Like that's what everybody says all now on TV, you

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Speaker 1: need good guard play, which is fine, they have great

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Speaker 1: guard play. But if you look at this year's top

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Speaker 1: you said top seven, or the last eight years the

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Speaker 1: top seven and chemp top six.

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Speaker 4: Somebody won top six six, But I would narrowed Honestly,

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Speaker 4: I wouldn't narrow down my focus to that degree. But

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Speaker 4: it just so happens that top six has been kind

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Speaker 4: of standard here for the last handful of years.

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Speaker 1: I think one of the other things was, I think

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Speaker 1: you had to be top twenty offense and defense or

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Speaker 1: something along those lines, like nineteen of the last twenty

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Speaker 1: one winners were top twenty offense and defense heading into

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Speaker 1: the tournament. And again that's just a baseline. Connecticut is

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Speaker 1: certainly fits that bill, but sodaes Houston, Purdue twenty first

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Speaker 1: in defense. Auburn's the one I want to talk about,

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Speaker 1: because again, not a lot of people SEC didn't have.

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Speaker 3: A great year.

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Speaker 1: Everybody knows more about Kentucky than they do Auburn. But

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Speaker 1: Auburn's tenth in offense, fourth in defense, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: You're big on the numbers. I don't know what Bruce

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Speaker 1: Pearl does for you, But I don't know. Are we

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Speaker 1: sleeping on Auburn because you posted something today where Auburn

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Speaker 1: had the best value based on the odds that were

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Speaker 1: out there. They're considered a long shot by many and

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Speaker 1: well a long stop according to ESPN, But meanwhile you

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Speaker 1: have them as really really good value.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's funny. So we were just talking about Yukon

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Speaker 4: last year. They were a four seed and they were

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Speaker 4: grostly underseated. They were, like I said, fourth by ken

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Speaker 4: Pom going into the tournament. So you know that was

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Speaker 4: a team that ended up winning and they kind of,

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Speaker 4: you know, made ken bomb look good and made the

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Speaker 4: committee look pretty pretty poor because you know, they were

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Speaker 4: way too good to be a four seed. And Auburn

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Speaker 4: is almost the exact replica of Yukon last year. They

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Speaker 4: also are a four seed, but they're number four in

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Speaker 4: ken Pom's overall rankings. They really when you look at

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Speaker 4: the underlying metrics or playing like a number one seed. Now,

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Speaker 4: you know, again I haven't followed it close enough in

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Speaker 4: terms of kind of resume and all that stuff. I

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Speaker 4: know others have, but you know, they don't have a

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Speaker 4: ton of you know, top ten level wins. I don't

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Speaker 4: think they have any actually, but they have you know,

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Speaker 4: blown out the teams that they're supposed to. So there

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Speaker 4: there's eighteen teams that ranked seventieth or higher in ken

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Speaker 4: Pom and Yale one of their their first opponent, I

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Speaker 4: think is like eighty fourth and they're eighteen and oh

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Speaker 4: in those games, and they've blown pretty much everybody out

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Speaker 4: by at least fifteen points or at least fourteen points.

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Speaker 4: They blew out Alabama. You know, they've done They've kind

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Speaker 4: of done enough to make their numbers look good because

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Speaker 4: margin of victory does matter in this stuff. And so

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Speaker 4: you know, they profile very similarly to Connecticut last year.

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Speaker 4: And you know, as we talk about, you know, how

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Speaker 4: do you win in your brackets? If you're in a

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Speaker 4: large pool that has a ton of entrances, one thing

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Speaker 4: you want to do is differentiate yourself. You know, picking

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Speaker 4: all number one seeds and picking Yukon to win it

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Speaker 4: all is not gonna not gonna differentiate things when when

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Speaker 4: you have a large pool. You know, maybe in a

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Speaker 4: smaller pool it's okay, but a large pool. And one

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Speaker 4: way to potentially do that that I'm looking at in

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Speaker 4: my bracket is picking Auburn over Yukon in the Sweet

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Speaker 4: sixteen in that region, getting them to the final four.

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Speaker 4: You don't necessarily have to have them win it all,

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Speaker 4: but just getting them to you know, in that region

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Speaker 4: is going to be different than a lot of others

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Speaker 4: because you know, like twenty five, twenty six percent of

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Speaker 4: you know, right now, I think ESPN's public brackets are

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Speaker 4: picking Yukon to win it all. I bet you a

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Speaker 4: lot more pick up the final four. So you know,

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Speaker 4: it just almost seems too easy, and we've seen it

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Speaker 4: so many times, like it's very hard to repeat. It's

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Speaker 4: been since what the seven Florida Gators, and it's happened.

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Speaker 4: So as good as Yukon is, you know, if you

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Speaker 4: want to win your pool and you've got a lot

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Speaker 4: of entrance, a lot of contestants in that pool, picking

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Speaker 4: potentially Auburn over Yukon could be that kind of differentiator.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I think I saw seventeen years since Florida not

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Speaker 1: repeating but getting out of getting steen. Yeah, which is crazy.

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Speaker 1: Did you say twenty five percent of the pools have

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Speaker 1: Yukon winning it.

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Speaker 4: Oh yeah, it's like twenty five, twenty six percent. And

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Speaker 4: so what I did was I posted today and it's

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Speaker 4: on you know, on my website on that March Madness page.

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Speaker 4: You know, I go through one way if you're just

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Speaker 4: not following, you're not really paying attention to to all

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Speaker 4: this and you don't want to spend a ton of time,

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Speaker 4: you know, doing a deep dive on all the teams.

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Speaker 4: One easy way is, and you could use this as

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Speaker 4: a guide is you know, if you're at a pool

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Speaker 4: and you want to you want a DIFFERENTI You want

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Speaker 4: to you know, stick out a little bit because you

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Speaker 4: don't want to have this same teams everybody else has.

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Speaker 4: You're never gonna win. Comparing the actual betting odds to

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Speaker 4: win the championship versus the ESPN quote unquote public bracket,

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Speaker 4: which they do a great job. It's great. It's great

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Speaker 4: information to have, like it's a good proxy for what

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Speaker 4: you know, everyone's pool is going to look like. And

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Speaker 4: right now, twenty five percent of ESPN's public betters or

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Speaker 4: public picktors and brackets are taking Yukon to win it all.

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Speaker 4: When you look at the actual betting odds and kind

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Speaker 4: of the implied win the win probability, it's only seventeen

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Speaker 4: and a half percent. I mean that's a huge gap.

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Speaker 4: So you know, Albert is probably the best value on

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Speaker 4: the board when you look at that about you know,

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Speaker 4: the little less than three percent of public pictors are

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Speaker 4: taking Auburn to win it all when they're implied betting

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Speaker 4: odds say they're closer to five percent. Again, it's a

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Speaker 4: biggest it's one of the larger gaps that among the

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Speaker 4: top teams. So you know Tennessee is another one for example.

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Speaker 4: So if you if you want to if you're not

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Speaker 4: playing in one of those small you know, with a

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Speaker 4: couple of buddies or a small pool, and you got

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Speaker 4: a larger pool of you know, fifty one hundred, one

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Speaker 4: hundred plus people, you know, Auburn is a good way

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Speaker 4: to kind of differentiate yourself from a team like Yukon.

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Speaker 4: You just can't if you're in a big pool, you

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Speaker 4: really can't pick Yukono win at all. It's just there's

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Speaker 4: no way because everybody else is going to be picking them.

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Speaker 4: Like I said, so when a quarter of public pools

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Speaker 4: are taking Yukon, that's a good proxy for what your

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Speaker 4: orders is. Probably going to look like, yeah, I like that.

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Speaker 1: I almost wonder, you know, sweet sixteen, it looks like

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Speaker 1: Yukon will be playing in Boston, which is basically like

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Speaker 1: a home game against Auburn.

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Speaker 3: Now does that factor in at all?

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Speaker 1: Like, man, they really stack the deck for Yukon now

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Speaker 1: that I know the bracket is hard, and you know

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Speaker 1: they have some very good day of conference champs all

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Speaker 1: over the place. But I don't know, does that factor

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Speaker 1: in for you at all? Like Auburn would be beating

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Speaker 1: Yukon in Massachusetts.

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Speaker 4: Nah, I don't take that much stake in it. And

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Speaker 4: you know, to be honest, these days, you know, it

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Speaker 4: isn't like a true home court where where you know

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Speaker 4: one team is trying is really traveling a lot versus

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Speaker 4: the other, and you're getting the home whistle like it's

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Speaker 4: really about the referee bias at the end of the

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Speaker 4: day when you're in a home court. But I don't

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Speaker 4: take too much when it's a different home court. It's

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Speaker 4: you know, maybe it's it's mileage in that far away

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Speaker 4: Like I personally don't think it's that big of an advantage,

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Speaker 4: but you know, I can understand, you know, some people

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Speaker 4: think that way and honestly, like if you're in a

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Speaker 4: Sweet sixteen setting, people love to see upsets and love

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Speaker 4: to see the underdog win, and especially a big contender

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Speaker 4: like Yukon. So if you're one of these other teams

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Speaker 4: in that region, like let's say Illinois is playing Iowa State,

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Speaker 4: I don't know, it's kind of picking two teams there.

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Speaker 4: They want to see Yukon lose. So those fans that

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Speaker 4: are sitting in there because you get like the full

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Speaker 4: you know, the fans of the teams might be in

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Speaker 4: for both games, like they're rooting for the underdogs. So

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Speaker 4: it's not, as you know, one sided in that regard.

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Speaker 4: So I personally don't take that much stock and do

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Speaker 4: it when when I look at look at these games,

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Speaker 4: I just kind of picked the pick the teams as

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Speaker 4: as kind of the quality and like I said, historical profiles.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Arizona and Purdue lost early last year. Do you

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Speaker 1: think that they're almost undervalued in a sense because everybody's saying, oh,

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Speaker 1: those guys are choke artists, they're frauds. They lost in

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Speaker 1: the first round last year as heavy favorites. What do

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Speaker 1: you say to that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, Purdue is very undervalue because you know,

336
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Speaker 4: just like everyone's saying, like, oh, I'm not gonna pick Purdue,

337
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Speaker 4: like they keep they've blown a year after year. You know,

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Speaker 4: they're not the greatest defensive team in the world. They're

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Speaker 4: better than they were last year, but they're not They're

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Speaker 4: not elite. You know, they've got the big man Edie

341
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Speaker 4: and so they're but you look at the resume. I mean,

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Speaker 4: they have beaten some really really good teams. It's actually

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Speaker 4: pretty impressive. So like they have proven that that they

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Speaker 4: can win against the best. I mean they beat Tennessee

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Speaker 4: by four, they beat Marquette by three, they beat Arizona

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Speaker 4: by eight, you know, like they have something. They beat

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Speaker 4: Illinois twice, they beat Alabama, Like, they have some really

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Speaker 4: really good wins on their resume. So you have a

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Speaker 4: team that, like if you didn't know who that you know,

350
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Speaker 4: if you didn't know that was Purdue and you just

351
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Speaker 4: looked at the resume and you looked at some of

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Speaker 4: the underlying metrics, you would say, oh, this team is

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Speaker 4: a legit like championship contender. But because it says Purdue

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Speaker 4: and it's Matt Painter, they're being discounted. So yeah, I mean,

355
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Speaker 4: I like I don't love to do it because you know,

356
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Speaker 4: it's like, shame on, how many times in a row

357
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Speaker 4: can you see them lose? But from a pure kind

358
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Speaker 4: of value perspective, you just kind of hold your nose.

359
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Speaker 4: They're a team that probably is a is a decent

360
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Speaker 4: bet to get to the Final four, and honestly, their

361
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Speaker 4: region is probably the easiest in my opinion, like Tennessee

362
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Speaker 4: is tough, but at the top of that bracket. Now,

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Speaker 4: we just saw Kevin McCullers has been announced out for

364
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Speaker 4: for for Kansas, So that's their best player. So he's

365
00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,080
Speaker 4: he's out. That's gonna hurt them. Gonzaga's you know, they're fine,

366
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Speaker 4: but they're not some elite team like they were in

367
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Speaker 4: the past couple of years. You know, the Purdue would

368
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Speaker 4: play potentially TDU or Utah States round two, like they

369
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Speaker 4: can win that game. I mean, perdue be could Zaga

370
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Speaker 4: earlier this year I think by ten, so they can.

371
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Speaker 4: It's not that difficult of a path. And it really

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Speaker 4: does kind of remind me of Virginia a handful of

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Speaker 4: years ago, Right, Virginia lost every year after the year

374
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Speaker 4: they lost the first round to UNBC, and then the

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Speaker 4: next year they won the title, right, So it's not

376
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Speaker 4: exactly the same, but it's got a similar feel. And

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00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:23,639
Speaker 4: that was I remember I wrote about that at the time.

378
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,800
Speaker 4: It was very similar. There were number one seed. Nobody

379
00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:29,040
Speaker 4: wanted to pick them because of all their historical failures,

380
00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:32,400
Speaker 4: and so they were under actually an under valued one seed,

381
00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:35,879
Speaker 4: which you rarely ever see, and very few people were

382
00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:37,560
Speaker 4: picking them in the gets to the final four letterlone

383
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Speaker 4: the title, and so if you put them in your bracket,

384
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Speaker 4: it's kind of an easy you know, it's a number

385
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Speaker 4: one seed. They should be you know, they should have

386
00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,480
Speaker 4: a good chance to get there, and nobody was picking

387
00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:48,320
Speaker 4: them and they ended up winning. So it's got a

388
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:49,960
Speaker 4: similar feel. I don't know if it's going to happen,

389
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Speaker 4: but you know, I think if you're looking to again

390
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Speaker 4: stick out a little bit, feel free to put them

391
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Speaker 4: in your final four. I don't think it's really that

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Speaker 4: that bigger the league.

393
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Speaker 1: I like that my and again this is Minutia, but

394
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Speaker 1: like TCUs, one of those scrappy teams where their guards

395
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Speaker 1: all they'll turn you over. It looks like they're twenty

396
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Speaker 1: second in turnover percentage, like Jimmy or Nelson's kid is

397
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:13,639
Speaker 1: on the team, and he's a menace. He's like twenty three,

398
00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:16,120
Speaker 1: twenty four years old. And I just I can see

399
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Speaker 1: the Purdue guards wil thing. But I'm with you, I

400
00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:19,480
Speaker 1: will have perdue in most of Well.

401
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Speaker 4: You know what the problem is, Jason is they've got

402
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Speaker 4: Tennessee in that region. Who's got Rick bart It's like

403
00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:26,320
Speaker 4: the same thing with Rick Barnes, like to put them

404
00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:28,560
Speaker 4: both in the same region, and neither of those coaches

405
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,119
Speaker 4: can ever get their teams that's out of like the

406
00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 4: second round, and it's like, man, you've got all these

407
00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:38,719
Speaker 4: you know, kind of a you know this the Spider

408
00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:41,880
Speaker 4: Man meme looking at each other like it's it's it's

409
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,640
Speaker 4: they set up very well. It's almost like they intentionally

410
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,760
Speaker 4: set it up for Purdue after these last couple of years.

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00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:49,919
Speaker 4: I mean, just the way this kind of you know,

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Speaker 4: with Kansas and the injuries, and I don't know, I

413
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Speaker 4: actually don't think that the route, like I said, if

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Speaker 4: they were in, if they were if you swipped swapped

415
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 4: spots with Yukon, they would have no shot to get

416
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 4: to the final four, in my opinion, not no shot,

417
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,520
Speaker 4: but like it would just be really difficult. But I

418
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:07,920
Speaker 4: just think that with the region that they're in. Now

419
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:09,360
Speaker 4: it's a lot easier to get there.

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Speaker 1: The thrill and excitement of March Mania is here, and

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00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:17,159
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422
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424
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Speaker 3: A couple double digit dogs you should take a look at.

426
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Speaker 1: I think a couple dogs will be barking opening.

427
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 3: Weekend to the tournament.

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Speaker 1: Obviously, I can't give betting advice, but I can sure

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Speaker 1: lean on knowledge my awesome run this season. If you're

430
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Speaker 1: You mentioned that produced resumes amazing. You had this great

447
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:39,439
Speaker 1: stat that I didn't even notice, but Duke did not

448
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 1: face a top five team all season, and they went

449
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,360
Speaker 1: zero to three against top ten kN PALM teams.

450
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:47,120
Speaker 3: They have one win over a top fifteen team.

451
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,840
Speaker 1: You know this ta Duke forever has been one of

452
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 1: the talking points, one of the darlings.

453
00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 3: Everybody knows Duke.

454
00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:56,200
Speaker 1: I feel like they've got no juice whatsoever right now.

455
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 1: They had that bad loss to NC State. They come

456
00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:02,159
Speaker 1: in the season with two straight loss in the tournament

457
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 1: with two straight losses.

458
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:04,360
Speaker 3: I don't know where are you on Duke.

459
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,479
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know they're they're a fringe team. They kind

460
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 4: of have a lot of the you know ingredients, like

461
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 4: said historically to get there you know from air their

462
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:17,520
Speaker 4: eighth and Ken Pom their top seven, and offense, you know,

463
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:20,680
Speaker 4: defensively not as good. They're twenty six and adjusted defense.

464
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,200
Speaker 4: But you know we've seen offenses has mattered a little

465
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 4: bit more recently than defense the last handful of years.

466
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 4: You know, they got a really good player in Philapowski,

467
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 4: you know, but quinc er John Shire hasn't really proven

468
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 4: that he can, you know, lead a team very far.

469
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 4: I'm not sure if he's really a good coach you've got,

470
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 4: you know, I'm not sure. Like I said, they haven't

471
00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 4: beaten the elites. They have zero wins against anybody in

472
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 4: the top ten. When you look at Ken Pomp, the

473
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 4: Baylor is their best win at fourteenth. They've lost to

474
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 4: Arizona by five. I mean they lost a lot of

475
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 4: close games, to be fair, so Arizona by five. They

476
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 4: lost to North Carolina by nine, lost a game too

477
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 4: Carolina by five. You know, all their losses are very close.

478
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 4: I don't think they have any loss more than single digits.

479
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,879
Speaker 4: So you know, from that perspective, like margin of victor,

480
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 4: they easily could have been you know, instead of twenty

481
00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:16,400
Speaker 4: four and eight, that could have been like twenty eight

482
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 4: and four, like they they were this close and could

483
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,119
Speaker 4: have been a number one seed and things might be different. So,

484
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:23,879
Speaker 4: you know, I don't think it's impossible for them to

485
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,719
Speaker 4: get there. I just think that they really haven't proven

486
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 4: that they can consistently win these these close games against

487
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:36,680
Speaker 4: you know, the top, top elite level teams. But maybe

488
00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 4: you know, some of the luck at the late game

489
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 4: will will help, you know, will turn around and they

490
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 4: can get there. It's not not impossible. They do face

491
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:46,919
Speaker 4: Houston if they get there in the sweet sixteen, and

492
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 4: you know, Houston's just a really tough team. So yeah,

493
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 4: like it's not impossible for them to get there. But

494
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:54,360
Speaker 4: I'm not personally picking them myself, all right.

495
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 1: I'll say one of the most eye opening things I

496
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 1: saw from you that I'm in a Calcutta group and

497
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 1: I send it to our group by said, listen, uh,

498
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,159
Speaker 1: Kentucky profiles very badly, and then I sent them your

499
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 1: stuff on Kentucky's.

500
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 3: Defense being horrific.

501
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 1: The narrative though, TA is, oh, Kentucky's got to Duan

502
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 1: Wagner's kid and the kid Shepherd and Dillingham.

503
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 3: I mean, they got three pros. They're gonna be good.

504
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 3: They could score outscore anybody.

505
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 1: They could run and jump, and then you dig into

506
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,919
Speaker 1: the numbers and you're like, holy cow, these guys can't stop.

507
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 3: They might not be able to stop my rec league team.

508
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, so that's a good This is exactly like if

509
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:29,919
Speaker 4: you if you don't know anything about these teams, just

510
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:33,040
Speaker 4: who's playing whatnot, and you just look at the you know,

511
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 4: look at the history, and you just go buy probabilities

512
00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,200
Speaker 4: and the odds and kind of what has been kind

513
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 4: of what leads to one of these higher seeds, like

514
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 4: a Kentucky what has led to those losses early in

515
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 4: a tournament? And it's purely this profile of team. It's

516
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 4: an elite offense, so top twenty five in offense, but

517
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,439
Speaker 4: or defensively. So the number that I've used in you know,

518
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:58,440
Speaker 4: my research is one hundred and thirty fifth in the

519
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 4: country or worse from a points per possession allowed. Okay,

520
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 4: so that's before any sort of you know, adjustment for schedule, etc.

521
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 4: Just purely how many points did you allow per possession? Right?

522
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 4: And there since two thousand and four, there have been

523
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 4: thirty eight teams that have been a top seven seed.

524
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 4: So you're a good seed. So you're expected to go

525
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 4: farther your top twenty five in offense, like I said,

526
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:22,919
Speaker 4: and then you know, one hundred and thirty fifth or

527
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:26,360
Speaker 4: worse on defense. Among those thirty eight teams, only one

528
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 4: made the Final four, and that was Miami last year.

529
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 4: I told you that was a little bit of a fluke.

530
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 4: And honestly, if you remember that round one game against Drake,

531
00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 4: they were trailing with I think three minutes left. They

532
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:39,399
Speaker 4: should have lost that game. Then I mean back in

533
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 4: winning and then you know they had a nice run

534
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:43,679
Speaker 4: into the Final four. But that is very you know,

535
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 4: that is an outlier based on history. Other than that,

536
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 4: four other teams out of thirty eight made the Elite eight,

537
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 4: and twelve out of thirty eight teams were upset by

538
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:57,399
Speaker 4: a double digit team in a double digit seed in

539
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 4: round one, which is pretty incredible. Three of the last

540
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:06,160
Speaker 4: fifteen teams that kind of fit this profile since twenty

541
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 4: seventeen have made it past round two. Okay, like these

542
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:13,400
Speaker 4: are this is like historically the exact type of team

543
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 4: that you want to fade. And it's not just Kentucky

544
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,879
Speaker 4: this year. It's Illinois, it's Baylor, it's Alabama, it's Florida,

545
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 4: It's interesting. There's three SEC teams and all were just

546
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 4: awesome on offense but couldn't stop a nosebleed. And it

547
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 4: makes sense, right, Like, you know, if you're gonna string

548
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 4: together multiple wins, you're gonna have to win close games

549
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 4: and you're gonna have to get stops, and if you're

550
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,239
Speaker 4: just not capable, maybe you can do it on a

551
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 4: singular game or even like two games, but to do

552
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 4: it multiple games in a row is just very difficult

553
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 4: with defenses you know that poor. And so you know,

554
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 4: Kentucky is a team that I'm gonna be fading, not

555
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 4: necessarily round one, although I do like Oakland against Spread

556
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:52,719
Speaker 4: getting fourteen, I think that I would not put them

557
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:58,440
Speaker 4: or them Florida or Alabama really or Illinois passed round two,

558
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 4: like to me, that's like the the cutoff. And maybe

559
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 4: they said maybe one of them squeaks by to an

560
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 4: elite eight or something, But in general, I think fading

561
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 4: those teams we've seen, I mean, twelve to thirty eight,

562
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 4: you're talking about almost a third of higher set of

563
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 4: teams being losing in the first round to a double

564
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 4: digit seed, Like these are real upsets, and so a

565
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 4: team like Kentucky just a always never believe the hype

566
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 4: before a tournament when everybody is saying like this is

567
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 4: the hot team and this is the team we're gonna back,

568
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 4: and it's kind of a public fade, if you will,

569
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 4: Like that's always something to be nervous about. You look

570
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,199
Speaker 4: at some of the ESPN numbers, Like I said, we

571
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 4: look at kind of general with the public is taking

572
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 4: to win the title versus actual odds, and Kentucky's got

573
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 4: the third kind of you know, worst value when it

574
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 4: comes to that North Carolina and in Connecticut or the

575
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,719
Speaker 4: other two. You could see just like the general publics

576
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 4: believe in the hype and they're just ignoring the fact

577
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 4: that their defense is just really poor. I mean they are.

578
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 4: I mean this defense is two hundred and eleventh in

579
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 4: the country on a points for possession basis. So I'm

580
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:05,600
Speaker 4: gonna be fading them and let everybody else pick Kentucky

581
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 4: to get to the kind of the you know, the

582
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:10,920
Speaker 4: everyone's darling to get to the final four, and I'll

583
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:11,640
Speaker 4: be fading them early.

584
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:16,439
Speaker 1: Do you remember their team from twenty twenty two, the

585
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:18,640
Speaker 1: team that lost to Saint Peter's I'm just looking up now.

586
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 1: Fifth in offense, thirty sixth in defense, and they had

587
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 1: Oscar Sheibwey, who was like the player of the year.

588
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 1: Ty Ty Washington was going to the NBA. I think

589
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 1: he's on the Rockets. Maybe they had the kid from David.

590
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 1: They had like a squad and everybody's like, oh yeah,

591
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 1: I gotta love Conar And they get smashed by Saint

592
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:33,920
Speaker 1: Peter's in overtime and it was like whoa.

593
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 4: Yeah. Like I said, that team was actually profile a

594
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 4: little bit better than this one, a little better.

595
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 3: Yeah.

596
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 4: I mean I remember watching it again. Like I said,

597
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 4: I I'm more of an NFL guy, But I remember

598
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 4: watching Gonzaga go into rapp Arena maybe a month ago

599
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 4: and they just laid it on them. They could not

600
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 4: stop Gonzaga, who's a really good offense, because it just defensively,

601
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 4: they have no shot. I mean, they've got an elite offense.

602
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 4: It's gonna be fun like them in Alabama and Florida,

603
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 4: Like they're gonna be scoring a lot of points. It's

604
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 4: gonna be entertaining. But just to expect a team like

605
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 4: that to be so hot on offense to you know,

606
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 4: be able to make up for that deficiency on defense,

607
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 4: is really hard, and historically it just hasn't proven out

608
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 4: that way.

609
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: Have you did you get any futures on anybody ahead

610
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:18,960
Speaker 1: of the tournament or did you are you just gonna

611
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:19,720
Speaker 1: go game by game?

612
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 4: Yeah? You know, so it's probably six or seven weeks ago.

613
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 4: I was looking because I knew I always look at

614
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 4: these Ken Palm numbers and some of the historical data points,

615
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 4: and I knew I wanted to find somebody that maybe

616
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 4: was just outside of like the top three or four

617
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 4: that could have value. So the only future I haven't

618
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 4: I don't look. I don't love it now because honestly,

619
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 4: I think they're a little vulnerable is North Carolina. I

620
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 4: have them at sixteen to one. If you look at

621
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 4: the like said, if you look at the kind of

622
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 4: who's who everyone's picking in the brackets and kind of

623
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 4: what their actual odds are, like, the Carolina is up

624
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 4: there with one of the most overvalued teams. You know,

625
00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 4: they're a good team. They've got bay Cod, They've got

626
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 4: you know, Davis like they're they're a good team, and

627
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 4: there's a chance that they can get to the final

628
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 4: four and all that. But you know they are probably

629
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 4: the most vulnerable. I mean they're ninth and Ken Palm

630
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 4: and there they're a number one seed, so they don't

631
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 4: necessarily deserve and profile to be a number one seed.

632
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,680
Speaker 4: I still think it's live, but it's not my favorite

633
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 4: right now, so I don't personally like taking futures at

634
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 4: this point. I just don't see the value because, like.

635
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 3: You said, you can just roll over, Yeah, rollover, right, you.

636
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 4: Know the money lines and probably do you know do better.

637
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 4: So I haven't. I haven't gone to that route with

638
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 4: it with any of these teams, but yeah, Caroline is

639
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 4: the one that I haven't. It's probably the one I

640
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 4: don't like.

641
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 1: All Right, we can wrap up I saw. I don't

642
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 1: know if it was Ken Palm or bart Torvik. What

643
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 1: are the sites? Had the Big East as the second

644
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 1: best conference in America this year. Now they only get

645
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 1: three into the tournament, and it almost feels like there's

646
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 1: no pop behind Creighton and Marquette. Now colect the point

647
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 1: guard for Marquette, who's awesome, All American, he's hurt, apparently

648
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 1: he's gonna play. He just sat out the BIGGAST tournament.

649
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 1: Is there is there a chance either of those two

650
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 1: makes a San Diego State type run? Both top twenty

651
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 1: five in defense, top twenty five in offense, and they've

652
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 1: got some experience. I just don't know if the Big

653
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 1: East almost feels undervalued because they had a couple teams snubbed.

654
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, so say though, you know, I don't mind either

655
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 4: of those teams. I will say so if you're looking

656
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 4: at kind of the higher seat of teams that are

657
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 4: vulnerable to these kind of double digit seeds, and you know,

658
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 4: typically profiles from an upset perspective, teams that don't turn

659
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 4: you over when you're one of the better seeds or

660
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 4: are not able to grab defensive rebounds. They allow this,

661
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 4: you know, the small guys to stick around, and that

662
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 4: makes you vulnerable for an upset. So Creighton, I mean,

663
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 4: they're three hundred and sixty second in the country and

664
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 4: defensive turnover percentage, so they don't get any steals, they

665
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 4: don't turn you over. And again, if you're playing a

666
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 4: you know, a lower see a team that you know

667
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 4: wants to hang around, they'll let you hang around because

668
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 4: they're just not going to create extra possessions. That's the

669
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 4: whole name of the game is can you create extra

670
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 4: possessions if you're an underdog and can you prevent that

671
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 4: if you're one of the big boys. Ay, Creyton's not

672
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 4: very good at you know, defensive rebounding. They're just kind

673
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 4: of average, and they're really poor at creating turnovers. So

674
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 4: you know, if they face a team that gets hot,

675
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 4: it's hard for them to steal extra possessions, which is

676
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,520
Speaker 4: what you need to come back in games. So they've

677
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 4: got everything that profiles as a contender and everything else

678
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 4: actually fits. It's just those things, you know, make me

679
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 4: a little bit nervous. Not to say they can't do it,

680
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 4: but you know they're going to have to really do

681
00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 4: it with their offense more than anything, and they can.

682
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 4: They're very capable. Marquette a little bit better. They're six

683
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 4: and turnover percentage and we know, you know with the

684
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 4: Shaka smart you know, you know, the pressure defense that

685
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 4: they can create turnovers. They're not very good on the

686
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 4: boards on either end. I mean they're two hundred and

687
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 4: forty eighth and offensive rebounding two twenty second and defensive rebounding.

688
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 4: So if they face a team that could you know,

689
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 4: brash the boards and get those extra possessions, they could

690
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:07,360
Speaker 4: be in trouble. And again you mentioned the injury that

691
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 4: matters as well. But both teams have a shot. Not

692
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 4: to say that they don't. I'm not necessarily that high

693
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 4: on them per se, but I think they both have

694
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 4: a shot. I mean, they clearly have, you know, the

695
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 4: firepower to do it. They just have to they have

696
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 4: to do it with their offense, to be honest.

697
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's weird.

698
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 1: A Shaka Smart had so much juice with that VCU team,

699
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 1: and I don't know, man, I just feel like every

700
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 1: March he's kind of been a letdown with better teams,

701
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 1: with better with NBA players, I mean Texas, I don't know.

702
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 3: I don't know what to say, man, Yeah.

703
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 4: You talk about it's tunny that that VCU team was

704
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 4: it twenty eleven. When you look at like the last

705
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 4: twenty five years or whatever of data, there's only one

706
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 4: team that is like the most complete out. You can

707
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 4: make a case like this, Okay, I could see how

708
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 4: this team, you know, got to the final four. It

709
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 4: BCU sticks out like a sore thumb in every category.

710
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 4: There is nothing that they did well in the you know,

711
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 4: from an underlying metrics season during the season to actually

712
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 4: like get you to the point where like, Okay, I

713
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:08,320
Speaker 4: could see VC you get there like there was nothing.

714
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 4: When you look at the numbers looking back, you're like,

715
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 4: how in the world they get there? And then you

716
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 4: see what the final four was that year, it was

717
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 4: like was a butler and like it was all like

718
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 4: I think zerially six and higher. It was. It was

719
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 4: a really really weird year. But he did get a team,

720
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 4: you know, that didn't deserve to be there. To be honest,

721
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 4: I think they just had really hot shooting and they

722
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 4: got you know, got a streaky and you know, they

723
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 4: got on a run and that can happen. But yeah, yeah,

724
00:34:33,640 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 4: Other than that, though, he really hasn't done much in

725
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:37,880
Speaker 4: the tournament, which is a little disappointing.

726
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, Ta.

727
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: You could definitely visit his website, Cleveanalytics dot com.

728
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:45,840
Speaker 3: Great stuff.

729
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:47,759
Speaker 1: He's an oracle when it comes to the numbers. Are

730
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 1: you going to be doing any other sports? Obviously NFL

731
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 1: your site's mandatory, but college hoops?

732
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 3: Now, are you going to do golf? For tennis? What

733
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 3: are you expanding the profile?

734
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 4: Well, so, you know, just I did this last year

735
00:34:58,280 --> 00:34:59,880
Speaker 4: with college basketball, just you know, just for the turn.

736
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 4: I like to do it just because I have the numbers.

737
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:03,400
Speaker 4: I have the data and I could, I could, you know,

738
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,879
Speaker 4: put those together. I love golf. I love betting golf.

739
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 4: I don't know if you if you ever a bet golf.

740
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 4: I'm a golfer myself. So in the off season when

741
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,720
Speaker 4: when you know, off football season, it's a great sweat

742
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 4: to have a guy or two you know in it

743
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:18,760
Speaker 4: at the end of a tournament. So you know, I dabble.

744
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,400
Speaker 4: I don't really post that much. I'll have something probably

745
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 4: on the Masters, but otherwise it's just kind of like,

746
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:28,080
Speaker 4: you know, toss a couple of guys with with some

747
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 4: some outrights and maybe top tens. But yeah, it's really

748
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 4: just to me, NFL is the bread and butter. I'm

749
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 4: gonna have my NFL preview coming up typically end of

750
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 4: June early July, so that takes I mean that takes

751
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:41,840
Speaker 4: like a good six to eight weeks to put together

752
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 4: as so much data and really digest the off season,

753
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 4: and so I'll be starting that probably you know, kind

754
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 4: of late April, really May, so that takes up a

755
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 4: lot of my time. Otherwise, like I said, just get

756
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 4: outdoors a little bit, to spend some time with the

757
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,240
Speaker 4: family and you know, maybe bed a little bit of golf,

758
00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 4: but that's that's about it. No baseball, no NB yeah

759
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 4: really you know, just for fun, but no kind of

760
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 4: nothing on the site unfortunately.

761
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:07,359
Speaker 1: All right, t A great stuff, continued success man, talk

762
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 1: to you soon.

763
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 4: Thanks Jason,