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Speaker 2: On the economic from We've got some University of Michigan
Speaker 2: sentiment data today, just coming out at ten am Wall
Speaker 2: Street time.
Speaker 3: Not good.
Speaker 2: University of Michigan sentiment came out at fifty point eight.
Speaker 2: Consensus was fifty three point four. Last period it was
Speaker 2: fifty two point two. This is the second lowest rating
Speaker 2: or measurement on record. Joann chu joins us here Surveys
Speaker 2: of Consumers, Director at the University of Michigan. Johanne putting
Speaker 2: in the context the numbers you guys.
Speaker 4: Reported today, essentially we should think of this as very
Speaker 4: little change from April. Over the course of this year,
Speaker 4: we've seen consecutive months of very very strong declines. This
Speaker 4: most recent one was a very small decline and essentially flat.
Speaker 4: But as you pointed out, this is a very very
Speaker 4: low reading. Consumers continue to feel very dour about the economy.
Speaker 4: They're worried about the impact of tariffs on inflation and
Speaker 4: also the impact on unemployment. They're really worried about multiple
Speaker 4: dimensions of the economy. That was what they saw last month,
Speaker 4: and they continue to see dark times ahead.
Speaker 5: And nearly three fourths of the respond then spontaneously mentioned
Speaker 5: tariffs and that topic cross partisan lines. Can you tell
Speaker 5: us what you thought of that.
Speaker 4: We've been seeing a rising share of consumers spontaneously mention
Speaker 4: spontaneously mentioning tariffs. A few months ago, it was really
Speaker 4: a fairly small number of people, and now it's almost
Speaker 4: three quarters. It's cutting across partisan lines. It's really on
Speaker 4: everyone's minds, and at this point, consumers are really waiting
Speaker 4: for the other shoe to drop in terms of its
Speaker 4: impact on inflation. And it's not just the fact that
Speaker 4: tariff policies have come in pretty high, but it's also
Speaker 4: the uncertainty and instability of it. So falling this most
Speaker 4: recent pause on some China terrafts, we saw a little
Speaker 4: bit of improvement, but it really wasn't enough to reverse
Speaker 4: the sour readings that we've been seeing for the last
Speaker 4: few months.
Speaker 2: The University of Michigan one year inflation outlook, the consensus
Speaker 2: was six and a half percent, which is.
Speaker 3: An elevated number.
Speaker 2: Came in even higher than that, it's seven point three percent.
Speaker 2: What's driving that.
Speaker 4: Again, it's the uncertainty and instability of tariff policy. Consumers
Speaker 4: are aware that inflation right now isn't necessarily reflecting those
Speaker 4: terraffs yet, but they're waiting, they're really bracing for the impact.
Speaker 4: And interestingly, the increases in both short and long run
Speaker 4: inflation expectations were very much being driven by increases among Republicans.
Speaker 4: So even those who might broadly be in agreement with
Speaker 4: the president's economic policies are quite worried that the outlook
Speaker 4: for inflation has worsened recently.
Speaker 3: Joanne, thank you so much for that.
Speaker 2: Joy and Shue Surveys of consumers director at the University
Speaker 2: of Michigan. Again some significantly weaker than expected out look
Speaker 2: from the you Mish survey, so we'll stay on top
Speaker 2: of that.
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Speaker 2: This is about Lady sitting in for Alextel on Paul
Speaker 2: Sweeney Live here in our Bloomberg in Director Broker Studio
Speaker 2: streaming live on YouTube as well. So news coming out
Speaker 2: of the pharmaceutical space. Novo Nordisk is replacing its CEO
Speaker 2: amid increased in competitions for its we govy OBCD shots
Speaker 2: and a fifty three percent decline and the share presser
Speaker 2: over the past twelve months. Boy, these socks are having
Speaker 2: a tough time. They did so well during the pandemic
Speaker 2: and everybody's trying to adjust post pandemic. It seems like
Speaker 2: I'm thinking about United Healthcare as well. Mikey Shaw joins us.
Speaker 2: He's a senior farmer farmer tech analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 3: He's in London.
Speaker 2: He's one of a really really good analyst over there
Speaker 2: in London, one of the best in the city covered
Speaker 2: in this space.
Speaker 3: He learned from an old guy, but he's the he's
Speaker 3: the young guy, all right.
Speaker 2: Michael shaff tellas what's going on at Novo. Is it
Speaker 2: the CEO's problem or do they have a bigger issue?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean they announced the decision today, certainly unexpected
Speaker 6: by us. Seems a bit you know, abrupt to nature.
Speaker 6: You know, NOA tends to be very steady in their approach,
Speaker 6: but they also take you know, a long term approach
Speaker 6: to things, So maybe they think, you know, Jorgenson can't
Speaker 6: kind of steer the ship in light of the challenges
Speaker 6: that they're facing, and that their duty to face as well.
Speaker 6: You know, as I said, there's been a bit of
Speaker 6: a turn in fortune since mid twenty four. Some of
Speaker 6: that's been market challenges, some of that's been kind of
Speaker 6: pipeline execution. In terms of the market challenges, I mean,
Speaker 6: it's difficult to know kind of what the CEO is,
Speaker 6: but you know how they were meant to kind of
Speaker 6: react to that. So you know, you saw US policy
Speaker 6: pressures or and then you also saw headwinds from j
Speaker 6: LPE compounding due to you know, supply shortage, and then
Speaker 6: on the pipeline side of things, you know, you had
Speaker 6: underwhelming results for Cagary Semmer and then you also, you know,
Speaker 6: we also had kind of reservations around a novel's or
Speaker 6: all OBC strategy, so that was heavily focused on peptides.
Speaker 6: You know, they've done a series of deals recently which
Speaker 6: are now focused on oral small molecules. So that suggests
Speaker 6: that perhaps not investing sooner in that space was perhaps
Speaker 6: an oversight, and I think, you know, the move today
Speaker 6: or the decision today, you know, really reaffirms kind of
Speaker 6: perceptions that you know, while Novo had the first mover
Speaker 6: advantage in obesity, you know, they certainly have lost ground
Speaker 6: to Eli Lilly now, which looks like it has a
Speaker 6: stronger abuse you're offering out of the two players.
Speaker 5: What's interesting to me is how he will continue as
Speaker 5: CEO for a period to support a smooth transition to
Speaker 5: a new leadership. Quote. I mean Nova has only had
Speaker 5: three CEOs. How will this affect sentiment? I mean, are
Speaker 5: people more optimistic and reinvigorated that yes, maybe we can
Speaker 5: finally have a turning point, or are they using feeling
Speaker 5: a little bit more pessimistic because it sounds like they
Speaker 5: really have a good culture.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean that's the thing, all right. Yeah, I
Speaker 6: said that the timing seemed a bit odd. Nova's obviously
Speaker 6: you're expecting an uptic in GLP one in the second
Speaker 6: half of the year, as as you see easing headwinds
Speaker 6: from from compounding, So you know, I think the timing's
Speaker 6: a bit weird. The last time they changed their CEO,
Speaker 6: they announced the successor at the same time. That was Yogison. Say,
Speaker 6: the switch between the Sorencefu and Yugason.
Speaker 3: Today.
Speaker 6: You know, they're basically just saying that they're reviewing internal
Speaker 6: and external candidates, but the strategy remains unchanged. The fact
Speaker 6: that they say the strategy remains unchanged makes us believe that,
Speaker 6: you know, it's clearly an execution issue and that you know,
Speaker 6: the board and the major shareholder, which is no both
Speaker 6: Foundation through Novo Holdings have clearly kind of lost confidence
Speaker 6: in in Jorginson.
Speaker 2: So talk to us about the just kind of what
Speaker 2: we're seeing in that weight loss drug market generally. Where
Speaker 2: are we in this development, who are in how's it
Speaker 2: kind of shaken out in terms of leaders in that marketplace?
Speaker 6: Yeah, so I think I think Lily now is you know,
Speaker 6: the clear leader. It's got the better portfolio, it's more
Speaker 6: effective drug out there. What's going to be key going
Speaker 6: forward now is there's going to be a lot of
Speaker 6: focus on oral anti oral jp ones. So these fall
Speaker 6: into two categories. One peptide, which is which is a
Speaker 6: large molecule, and then you've got the small molecule such
Speaker 6: an awful glippron, you know thing that awful get from,
Speaker 6: which is Lily's assets. That's clearly got the better profile
Speaker 6: when comparing that to Novo Nordice or Sema Glue Tide.
Speaker 6: That's input part because one it's probably easy easier to
Speaker 6: scale because of the type of molecule that it is,
Speaker 6: and two you don't have these kind of strict dosing
Speaker 6: criterias where you have to take it on an empty stomach,
Speaker 6: et cetera, which you know, we think is the drawback
Speaker 6: to convenience. Now, you know, we've seen kind of the
Speaker 6: difficulties in kind of scaling up injectable GLP ones, we
Speaker 6: don't envisage, you know, the same issue with withal or
Speaker 6: molecule glp ones. So that would essentially, you know, allow
Speaker 6: kind of you know, great penetration of of the of
Speaker 6: the VS market.
Speaker 5: The competition has definitely intensified, and Novo stock has more
Speaker 5: than half in the past year. What about Trump's pharmatarists
Speaker 5: that looms over the company as well.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think it leaves over Nova. I think it
Speaker 6: looms over you know, drug companies as a whole. Yeah,
Speaker 6: clearly negative. But also you know it's source of aol.
Speaker 6: It is see there's no real detail on it, so
Speaker 6: you know, it's difficult to kind of comment on the
Speaker 6: potential impact that these tariffs could have and when they're
Speaker 6: going to come in And you know, that's kind of
Speaker 6: a commentary that we kind of heard over a large
Speaker 6: farmers one key results too.
Speaker 3: All right, Mikey, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 2: Micro Shaw he covers all the pharmaceutical companies for Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Intelligence over in London.
Speaker 3: We hired Mikey when he was a young associate.
Speaker 2: He did really well there, were promoted to analysts, did
Speaker 2: really well there, got promoted.
Speaker 3: To senior analysts.
Speaker 2: Now he's one of the senior folks in the city
Speaker 2: of London covering his big farmer companies and it's just
Speaker 2: a great success story. And that's what Bloomberg Intelligence has
Speaker 2: had a lot of success with, which is identifying and
Speaker 2: nurturing young talent, and Mikey Shaw's certainly one of those
Speaker 2: there and that's a great thing to see.
Speaker 1: You're lesson to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Big Big trade in the world of media and telecommunications.
Speaker 2: Charter Comic Communication that's a public traded company. Find Cox Communications,
Speaker 2: which is a privately held cable company. Thirty four and
Speaker 2: a half billion dollars. It's a value on Cox. This
Speaker 2: is a huge deal, folks, and we want to get
Speaker 2: the latest. So we turned to Getha Ranganath and Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Intelligence senior media analyst, Getha.
Speaker 3: Big big deal was this? What does this do for Charter?
Speaker 7: Here?
Speaker 2: What's the rationale for Charter laying out this big, big
Speaker 2: trade here?
Speaker 8: Yeah? Absolutely, Paul, I mean yes, we were expecting something
Speaker 8: to happen in the cable space. Remember, Charter right now
Speaker 8: before this deal is the second largest broadband US broadband
Speaker 8: provider with about thirty million subscribers. With this deal, what
Speaker 8: happens is they really kind of get the catapult to
Speaker 8: number one position edging past Comcast and having almost thirty
Speaker 8: six million broadband subscribers. And really the rationale for the deal, Paul,
Speaker 8: is that cable has been under intense pressure. So just
Speaker 8: a few years ago, Cable completely dominated the broadband landscape
Speaker 8: with about a sixty seven percent market share. They have
Speaker 8: been losing share to the telecom players, the Verizons, the
Speaker 8: T mobiles, and the AT and TS of the world
Speaker 8: because those players have come out with a much cheaper
Speaker 8: broadband solution with what is known as five G home
Speaker 8: Internet or fixed wireless access is priced about twenty to
Speaker 8: thirty percent lower than a cable broadband product. And you know,
Speaker 8: they've also been ramping up their fiber rollouts, so a
Speaker 8: cable kind of really facing it on both ends of
Speaker 8: the spectrum in terms of competition. And this is really
Speaker 8: just about them kind of gaining scales and better efficiencies
Speaker 8: and operations.
Speaker 5: So they've had talks about this more than a decade ago,
Speaker 5: and too many people's point, isn't a surprise? What change
Speaker 5: in that horizon? Like why was it not pushed through before?
Speaker 5: And why are we seeing it happen right now?
Speaker 8: I mean there have been multiple things, so, you know,
Speaker 8: regulatory concerns have obviously been you know, one of the
Speaker 8: foremost issues for the cable space. Remember just I think
Speaker 8: just less than ten years ago in twenty sixteen, Comcast
Speaker 8: tried to buy Time Warner Cable, failed in that transaction,
Speaker 8: and then Chotter went ahead and then acquired you know,
Speaker 8: Time Warner Cable. So regulatory issues have certainly been you know,
Speaker 8: front and center, and I think you know right now.
Speaker 8: The stimulus for this was really the fact that the
Speaker 8: cable industry is kind of facing all of these challenges
Speaker 8: from the telecoms, intense competitive challenges, and I think Cox
Speaker 8: really saw this as a really good strategy for them
Speaker 8: to you know, exit all right, So.
Speaker 2: This begs the question and you mentioned earlier, what does
Speaker 2: Comcast do here? Is there a response here from Comcasts
Speaker 2: as strategic response here?
Speaker 8: So Comcast actually already has a deal kind of in
Speaker 8: the works in terms of their spinoff of their cable networks.
Speaker 8: So that's on the media side of the business, that's
Speaker 8: not on the cable side of the business. But they
Speaker 8: are spinning off their cable networks. That should happen sometime
Speaker 8: a little bit later this year. And the expectation, Paul
Speaker 8: has been that once that deal happens, you know, once
Speaker 8: they spin off that cable network's division into its own entity,
Speaker 8: that will become a roll up for many other networks,
Speaker 8: most notably you know, the Warner Brothers, Discovery networks, maybe
Speaker 8: even you know, a smaller AMC networks. So really there's
Speaker 8: been a lot more chatter for Comcast on the media
Speaker 8: side rather than the cable side.
Speaker 5: But We'll have to wait and watch when it comes
Speaker 5: to anti trust. Do you think that it helps that
Speaker 5: Charter cocks deal isn't a big tech company because we
Speaker 5: know that competition officials, even Vice president Jdvance, have really
Speaker 5: closely looked at that space.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think that definitely helps. Also, this is you know,
Speaker 8: there is absolutely no overlap in terms of their footprint.
Speaker 8: You know, cable is a very regional business, so again
Speaker 8: this does not in any way hamper competition. It's actually
Speaker 8: good for consumers. And the one thing that you know,
Speaker 8: the Charter executives kept mentioning on the call was you
Speaker 8: know they are basically going to create more jobs in America.
Speaker 8: So this is, you know, good overall. So definitely, just
Speaker 8: kind of given the size and scope of the transaction,
Speaker 8: we don't really expect any big regulatory pushback.
Speaker 3: All right, Keith rung Anathan, thank you so much.
Speaker 2: We appreciate ta Keith rung Annas and she covers all
Speaker 2: the media companies for Bloomberg Intelligencies based in Princeton, New Jersey.
Speaker 3: Again a big, big deal.
Speaker 2: Charter Communications HTR is the tigger buying privately held Cost
Speaker 2: Communications for twenty one point nine billion.
Speaker 3: Dollar equity value.
Speaker 2: There's also a lot of debt in there, so the
Speaker 2: enterprise values much higher. A big, big transaction that the
Speaker 2: folks down in Atlanta, the Cox found have been a
Speaker 2: long time family company, owning a wide variety of media assets,
Speaker 2: newspapers like the Atlanta Constitution, radio stations, TV stations, cable.
Speaker 3: Amongst other things. So this is a big, big transaction
Speaker 3: for them.
Speaker 2: They are getting out of the cable television business and
Speaker 2: they're considered very, very smart operator, so that tells you
Speaker 2: how tough that business is. And when they're saying they
Speaker 2: cannot compete with their scale, so a big transaction in
Speaker 2: that space.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you
Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Hey, it's been a good week for Boeing. First, she
Speaker 2: got a whole slew of orders, recording their biggest order
Speaker 2: ever coming out.
Speaker 3: Of the Mid East.
Speaker 2: So a good revenue potential backlog for Boeing. And then
Speaker 2: today there's reporting and we're to stay on top of it.
Speaker 2: A couple of sources. Reuter says that Boeing is an
Speaker 2: a tentative deal to avoid US prosecution, and the Wall
Speaker 2: Street Journal reporting that the Justice Department wants to spare
Speaker 2: Boeing from a guilty plea over seven thirty seven max charges.
Speaker 2: So again, a potential really good piece of news for
Speaker 2: Boeing stocks unchanged on the day, but it is up
Speaker 2: fifteen percent you to date at a fifty two week high.
Speaker 2: George Ferguson joins US. He covers the airlines, the aerospace companies,
Speaker 2: including Boeing. Hey, George, this seems like a big deal
Speaker 2: to me. How do you how do you read it?
Speaker 9: Yeah, so I do think it's a good it's a
Speaker 9: good situation when Boeing can avoid a felony conviction, which
Speaker 9: I think ultimately was going to happen here before the
Speaker 9: Justice Department, I guess, sort of stood down or didn't
Speaker 9: care as much, and so, you know, there was a lot.
Speaker 7: Of questions, I guess about whether or not.
Speaker 9: A company that had been convicted of a felony could
Speaker 9: be a government contractor.
Speaker 7: I mean, my personal opinion was that Boeing.
Speaker 9: Was just too important to the defense industrial complex to
Speaker 9: not be allowed to be a defense contractor.
Speaker 7: And so.
Speaker 9: They would have found the Defense Department would have found
Speaker 9: a way around it. And maybe that's one of the
Speaker 9: reasons for a little bit of indifference in the marketplace
Speaker 9: right now over it.
Speaker 7: But I think in the long run it is a.
Speaker 9: Really I think good thing for the company to avoid
Speaker 9: having to be considered a fellon.
Speaker 5: You made a good point that if you're a fellon,
Speaker 5: you can't really have government contracts. Critics would say that
Speaker 5: maybe the current administration probably had an influence on this.
Speaker 5: What would you respond to that, And it's probably hard
Speaker 5: to ignore given that. For instance, President Donald Trump said
Speaker 5: that Boeing had some headaches, but it makes one of
Speaker 5: the best planes quote in his remarks when he was
Speaker 5: at the UAE.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean it does feel that way to me.
Speaker 9: And again, I think the challenge here is, look, but
Speaker 9: Boeing did have some problems, clearly, you know, with the
Speaker 9: seven thirty seven, and you know they were supposed to
Speaker 9: put in place an overseer that was going to help
Speaker 9: fix those problems.
Speaker 7: I think there's a lot of focus.
Speaker 9: On the company right now, and I do think it's
Speaker 9: probably in the country's best interest not to impede its
Speaker 9: ability to be a contractor again to DoD and to
Speaker 9: other parts of the government. And so I'm looking little longer,
Speaker 9: and I don't think we need the felony conviction in
Speaker 9: order to make sure the right thing happens at Boeing,
Speaker 9: and so, you know, so I'm sure.
Speaker 7: I wouldn't throw too many films in this one.
Speaker 2: With a little bit of a hindsight here put into
Speaker 2: context Boeing's weak in terms of orders.
Speaker 3: How big was it?
Speaker 7: Yeah, no, it was a nice week.
Speaker 9: So we we expect more of this to come. You know,
Speaker 9: I really think as the administration goes out and focuses
Speaker 9: on trade with the world and balance of payments, that
Speaker 9: countries around the world are going to look for ways
Speaker 9: to equalize that. And Boeing is one of the most
Speaker 9: important exporters for the US and look there, and we've
Speaker 9: reported the Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 7: About this, right there. Sales recently have definitely lagged, right.
Speaker 9: I think as customers have watched the problems of Boeing,
Speaker 9: watched the quality problems, the problems ramping up production, and
Speaker 9: so they're probably is already a natural springback for a
Speaker 9: pretty decent order year this year. Because again I think
Speaker 9: some of those core customers they haven't moved on. They're
Speaker 9: not going to buy air Bus. Their fleets a lot
Speaker 9: of their fleets are primarily Boeing, so they want to
Speaker 9: buy Boeing. It's in their best interest to buy Boeing,
Speaker 9: but they just didn't want to get in the order
Speaker 9: book right now because it was such a mess last year.
Speaker 9: So I think that springback coupled with an administration that's
Speaker 9: going to go around the world and say, hey, what
Speaker 9: are you doing to balance payments with us? And you know,
Speaker 9: and when countries go, I don't know, I guess we're
Speaker 9: off sides. The administration shows them, I guess chips and
Speaker 9: bowing airplanes and they go, okay, we'll take a bunch
Speaker 9: of bowing airplanes. Anyways, I think, you know you're going
Speaker 9: to see again more of this. So it was a
Speaker 9: good week, but I think there's more to come, and
Speaker 9: there's a spring back as well involved.
Speaker 3: Here thirty second storage.
Speaker 2: What's the run rate today on seven three seven deliveries
Speaker 2: and where does it need to be?
Speaker 9: And April we saw we think mid twenties going through
Speaker 9: the factory.
Speaker 7: I think that's pretty good. We'd like to be seeing mid.
Speaker 9: Thirties by mid year, and we think they ought to
Speaker 9: be able to break thirty eight by end of the year.
Speaker 7: For seven thirty.
Speaker 2: Seven, George excell appreciate you coming on short notice. George
Speaker 2: Ferguson covers airlines and the aerospace companies for Bloomberg Intelligence.
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