1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:08,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. What I would point 2 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:11,159 Speaker 1: out to people who take the view that globalization has 3 00:00:11,160 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: gone too far is that you'll miss it when it's gone. 4 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:19,320 Speaker 1: We can't roll up those supply chains and cut ourselves 5 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:22,560 Speaker 1: off from other countries about dramatically changing the way we live. 6 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 2: I'm Stephanie Flanders, head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg 7 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 2: and This is Trump Pnomics, the podcast that looks at 8 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:40,840 Speaker 2: the economic world of Donald Trump, how he's already shaped 9 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 2: the global economy. What on earth is going to happen 10 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 2: next this week? Why you'd miss globalization if it went 11 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 2: Probably a lot more than you think. There's been a 12 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 2: lot of books written in the last few years about globalization, 13 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 2: deglobalization and the populist threats to integration. But one that's 14 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 2: a bit different is Ben Choose Exile Economics. What happens 15 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 2: if globalization fails. Ben is the policy and analyst correspondent 16 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 2: at BBC Verify and was previously economics editor of BBC Newsnight, 17 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:15,199 Speaker 2: a job I used to have million years ago. What's 18 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 2: distinctive in Ben's approach is he's taking the arguments against integration. 19 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 2: You might say both seriously and literally he's asking not 20 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 2: just whether it's desirable for nations to shun globalization to 21 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 2: be self sufficient, whether it's even possible. I sat down 22 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:34,959 Speaker 2: with him in late June at an event organized by 23 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 2: The Conduit in London to discuss his reporting, his style 24 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 2: of storytelling, and how his own family history played a 25 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 2: part in the development of the book. I thought it 26 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 2: was worth sharing with you an edited version of that conversation. 27 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 2: I started by asking Ben why he decided to write 28 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 2: the book. 29 00:01:57,560 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 1: On that question, I feel incredibly honored to have had 30 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 1: a sort of front row seat to see the impact 31 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 1: of globalization firsthand. And of course what does that mean. 32 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 1: We've all seen globalization in our lives. But because my 33 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:12,800 Speaker 1: family came from China, my father's family came from China 34 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,600 Speaker 1: in the in nineteen sixty he came over to the UK. 35 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 1: I was born here, but he's still got family back 36 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,240 Speaker 1: in China, and I first visited. I write about this 37 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:23,239 Speaker 1: in the book, but I first visited China in nineteen 38 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 1: eighty five. When I went there, I was a quite 39 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:29,920 Speaker 1: young child, and I still remember it incredibly vividly, the 40 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: lives they were living those forty odd years ago, and 41 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 1: it was incredibly uh frugal. Really, you know, in family 42 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 1: of six lived in about three rooms. They would pull 43 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: out mattresses from under the beds and all sleep on 44 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 1: the floor, just simply because that's the only way they 45 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 1: could live. They didn't have things like washing machines, microwaves. 46 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 1: We were living in Hong Kong at the time, so 47 00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: they asked us to sort of go to this special 48 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 1: friendship store, which is the only place where you could 49 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: get western white goods, and you had to be a 50 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 1: foreigner to buy them, might from not from China. And 51 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: then we bought it and then get gifted it to them. 52 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 1: And it's crazy now because you think, how out have 53 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 1: you ever been to ch I'm sure a lot of 54 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: you being just like how CONSUMERISTI all is. You can 55 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: get anything there that you can get here, iPhone's laptops, 56 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 1: certainly washing machines. So to see first hand how their 57 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,519 Speaker 1: lives have changed in my lifetime, and I think it 58 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:27,239 Speaker 1: is very largely due to globalization. So I suppose the 59 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 1: question is why did I want to write this book? 60 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,359 Speaker 1: Because I think that I could bring something a sort 61 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:33,640 Speaker 1: of bit of personal experience, if you like, to seeing 62 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 1: how the good that globalization has done to my own family, 63 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 1: and to see it very vividly in a personal way 64 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 1: really brings it home. And when we hear people like 65 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 1: Robert Leitheiser, who is Donald Trump's first trade advisor in 66 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: his first term, he wrote this book that says it 67 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 1: with the title No Trade is Free, and he very 68 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 1: explicitly states that it was a mistake to trade with 69 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 1: China or allow China specifically into the World Trade Organization 70 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 1: in two thousand and one. It was a mistake. And 71 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 1: I just kind of like incredibly jarring, because what comes 72 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 1: into my mind when I hear that is my own 73 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 1: family backing Gangdhou in southern China. Well, really wasn't a 74 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 1: mistake for them. And now we can talk about the 75 00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 1: ways which China does create very serious problems for the 76 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: world trading system in many many ways. But I think 77 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 1: on a very personal and human level, I think I 78 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 1: really wanted to tell that the other side of the 79 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 1: story actually and bring that personal experience to bear. 80 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 2: I think, and of course I find that criticism about 81 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 2: the Entry's wto jarring for a whole other reason because 82 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 2: when I was at the US Treasury, we were just 83 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 2: negotiating the China entry to the WTO, and since then 84 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,720 Speaker 2: almost everyone thinks that that was a mistake, including many 85 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 2: of the people who were involved in negotiating it, because 86 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 2: various assumptions were made about what was going to happen 87 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 2: to China after that, that they would basically become more 88 00:04:56,760 --> 00:05:00,160 Speaker 2: like us and sort of market driven, that being part 89 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,480 Speaker 2: of the global economy would push them on this same 90 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 2: path that we've all been on, and that clearly has 91 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:10,280 Speaker 2: not happened, And you engage very directly with that in 92 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 2: the book. We should part that briefly, but I guess 93 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 2: we should also slightly lay out your stall in terms of, 94 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 2: you know, what's the architecture of the book? How did 95 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:24,160 Speaker 2: you decide that there are real things that people are 96 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 2: responding to when they're nervous of globalization? 97 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 1: Yeah? Absolutely so. The gestination of this book was really 98 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 1: in the pandemic, when the question that was arising in 99 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 1: lots of people's minds was, hang on, has globalization gone 100 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 1: a bit too far? Are we a bit too interconnected? 101 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:45,359 Speaker 1: Has it made us vulnerable where we thought it was 102 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 1: making us more prosperous. We all remember in the pandemic 103 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 1: the shortages of things like masks, medicines, and hard on 104 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:56,239 Speaker 1: the heels of that, of course, we had Russia's invasion 105 00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 1: of Ukraine in twenty twenty two, where there was a 106 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: big shock to global oil prices and food prices, and 107 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 1: there was a real sense that we were a bit 108 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 1: too exposed and maybe we should start to do produce 109 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 1: more at home, that those supply chains shouldn't be as 110 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 1: extensive as they are, and that maybe, as I said, 111 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: globalization had gone a bit too far. I really started 112 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: the idea of writing this and it came out of it. 113 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: Actually a BBC radio series I did called The New 114 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: Age of Autarchy with a question actually rather than an answer, 115 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: and that question was is it possible to actually do 116 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: those things to be more self sufficient in terms of 117 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 1: things like food and energy and medicine, you name it. 118 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 1: It was a good faith exploration of whether it was 119 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 1: possible or not. And as I started to write it, 120 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:45,360 Speaker 1: explore these supply chains in more detail and go into 121 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:50,920 Speaker 1: some of the complexities of the way the global value 122 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 1: and supply chains have constructed, it became more and more 123 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 1: clear to me that actually the answer probably is no. 124 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:00,840 Speaker 1: At least we can't roll up those supplies chain and 125 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 1: cut ourselves off from other countries about dramatically changing the 126 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 1: way we live. And I think on some level we 127 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 1: all know that, don't we, Because you know globalization if 128 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 1: you think, well, just look around you. We wake up 129 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 1: in the morning and you brush your teeth and toothpastes 130 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 1: from Poland, and you go and have your breakfast and 131 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 1: the grapes from Egypt, and then you put on your 132 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: clothes and it was perhaps it sticks together in Bangladesh, 133 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 1: and then you drive your German made car to the office. 134 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:28,640 Speaker 1: That's the typical way someone describes how globalization shapes our lives, 135 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 1: and it's all true. But what I discovered in this 136 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 1: researching this book and lots of other people that made 137 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 1: this point as well, And it's not just about those 138 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 1: consumer goods which are the fruits of globalization. It's the 139 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 1: components which make those consumer goods which are unfathomably globalized 140 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 1: as well. Just talking about semiconductors, you know, we hear 141 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:55,239 Speaker 1: about those and we took Trump and others and Biden 142 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 1: all wanted to make them in America rather than import them. 143 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 1: But if you look at the supply for something like semiconductors, 144 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 1: they're so unfathomably complex, coming from hundreds of different countries, 145 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 1: these raw materials and the machines that make them that 146 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 1: it really is impossible to see any single country having 147 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 1: a fully nationalized supply chain in something like semiconductors, computer chips, 148 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 1: and it goes for many other things as well, and 149 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 1: I talk about lots of examples of these in the book. 150 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 1: So Yes. I started out I guess with a question, 151 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 1: and I came increasingly to an answer, which is that, 152 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 1: you know, don't take globalization for granted, or don't assume 153 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 1: that it's going to be simple or easy, which is 154 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:43,439 Speaker 1: obviously what a lot of the exile economic exponents populist 155 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: politicians say it's going to be quite easy to do 156 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 1: these things. It really won't be. It'd be very expensive. 157 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:50,839 Speaker 1: And you know, I'm a BBC journalist. It's not my 158 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 1: job to say what people should want or what politicians 159 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: should do. What I'm trying to do in this book 160 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:58,280 Speaker 1: is say, be aware of the costs, be aware of 161 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:02,479 Speaker 1: the implication it's impossible. Well, you know, if people genuinely 162 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 1: think that it's worth it, then that's fine, but I 163 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:09,559 Speaker 1: would like them to do it with the full facts. 164 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:10,080 Speaker 1: In mine. 165 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:14,199 Speaker 2: You mentioned semi conductors. I think with electronics generally people 166 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 2: will sort of understand that it's a pretty complicated supply chain, 167 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 2: and in fact, that is what we're discovering. You know, 168 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 2: with the tariffs. Donald Trump sort of outraged the thought 169 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 2: that even with various high tariff rates, Apple's still not 170 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,600 Speaker 2: going to want to make iPhones in the US and 171 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 2: to your point, cannot make iPhones in the US because 172 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 2: there's so many things coming from different parts of the world. 173 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 2: But food, how hard could it be to be self 174 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 2: sufficient in food? 175 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 1: Well, that was one of the most fascinating journeys I've 176 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 1: been on actually in the book, because that was the 177 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:49,160 Speaker 1: one where I started out was I think, I'm sure 178 00:09:49,200 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 1: many of you will will will have this sense that 179 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:54,679 Speaker 1: do we really need to import so much food from abroad? 180 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 1: You know, the UK provides about or supplies about sixty 181 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:01,320 Speaker 1: percent of the food that we consume in so, you know, 182 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 1: pretty reliant on the rest of the world for food. 183 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 1: And why not, as the farmers say, you know, produce 184 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 1: more at home, consume more at home. It'd be good 185 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:17,200 Speaker 1: for good for farmers, good for the economy, and good 186 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 1: for food security. And I think that is quite an 187 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 1: intuitive argument. It's a very common argument that you hear. 188 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 1: What I've discovered in the book is that it's really 189 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 1: for a large part of the world, it's just not 190 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 1: feasible to rely only on the food that can be 191 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:34,200 Speaker 1: grown in that individual country. So there's a striking cistic 192 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 1: from a study done in twenty twenty which I imagine, 193 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:42,840 Speaker 1: if everyone on the planet had a one hundred kilometer 194 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 1: circle drawn around them, what proportion of the world's population 195 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: could feed themselves from staple foods grown within that one 196 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:55,960 Speaker 1: hundred kilometer radius. And the answer is it's only twenty 197 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 1: five percent, So only a quarter of the global population 198 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 1: could feed themselves within that area. So how big would 199 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 1: that circle need to be around every single person on 200 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 1: the planet so that they could feed themselves on staple 201 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 1: foods like wheat and corn and potatoes and what have you. 202 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:16,439 Speaker 1: It would have to be two thousand kilometers. And what 203 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 1: that tells you is, given the size of countries, given 204 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:21,200 Speaker 1: the size of the planet, is that if we're going 205 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,720 Speaker 1: to feed ourselves as a world, as a planet, we're 206 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:27,080 Speaker 1: going to be incredibly reliant on trade in food. This 207 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:31,400 Speaker 1: idea and food self sufficiency is a non starter for 208 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 1: probably most people on the planet. And that's really sobering thought, 209 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: isn't it, Because we often hear this line, as I said, 210 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: we just do it at home. Just do it at home. Well, 211 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:43,200 Speaker 1: it's not going to happen. At least we're not going 212 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:45,560 Speaker 1: to have the kind of diets that we used to, 213 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 1: increasing reliance on meat in large parts of the world, 214 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: the variety of food. But simply we can't feed ourselves 215 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:54,960 Speaker 1: as a planet with just national production. 216 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:57,439 Speaker 2: Although that fact does cast some light on why Donald 217 00:11:57,440 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 2: Trump w with want Canada, because I think the Americans 218 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 2: will probably do quite well if they could just take 219 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:02,280 Speaker 2: all of the Canadian planes. 220 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:06,319 Speaker 1: Well, that was another interesting thing about it, because America, 221 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 1: on the face of it, is very abundant in food. 222 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 1: It produces more than it consumes. It's a big agricultural 223 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 1: exporter to the rest of the world in net terms. 224 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:20,040 Speaker 1: But even America relies on fertilizer imports quite a lot 225 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 1: of them from Canada. So even if you say America 226 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:25,079 Speaker 1: doesn't need the rest of the world when it comes 227 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:27,439 Speaker 1: to food, well, it actually needs chemicals from the rest 228 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:30,679 Speaker 1: of the world to make its agriculture so productive. 229 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 2: In your chapter about food, you also you have a 230 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:35,080 Speaker 2: distinction which I think is used for in another areas 231 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 2: as well, because you think of self sufficiency, as we 232 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 2: often painted politically, as being the same as security. If 233 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:45,199 Speaker 2: you're making it your own, then you're not at the 234 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 2: behest of foreign powers and dictators. But you make the point, 235 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 2: especially with food, that food security is very different from 236 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 2: that and is often just related to poverty. 237 00:12:56,800 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 1: Yeah. I had a look at countries ranked by by 238 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:05,960 Speaker 1: food self sufficiency, so how much of their own consumption 239 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:08,720 Speaker 1: they're producing at home, and also about their levels of 240 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:11,240 Speaker 1: food security. Is the proportion of the populations who are 241 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:15,199 Speaker 1: struggling to feed themselves. So just to take two examples 242 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:16,560 Speaker 1: which I've plucked out in the book, which I think 243 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 1: are really illustrative, So the Zambia in Africa, which is 244 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 1: only seven percent reliant on imports according to the measures 245 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 1: of the which I was looking at, so it basically 246 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:30,760 Speaker 1: produces more or less all that it consumes when it 247 00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 1: comes to agriculture, but it has food insecurity levels which 248 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 1: are extremely high, so more than fifty percent. And if 249 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:44,079 Speaker 1: you look at a country like Mauritius in the Indian Ocean, 250 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:50,200 Speaker 1: which has a food self sufficiency ratio which is incredibly low, 251 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 1: so almost the inverse of Zambia, but its food security 252 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 1: was incredibly high. And what's the difference between those two countries. 253 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:02,440 Speaker 1: Mauritius is a much richer country than Zambia is. So 254 00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 1: precisely as you said, I think the lesson is what 255 00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:09,959 Speaker 1: leads to food insecurity is not reliance on imports. It's 256 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:13,240 Speaker 1: poverty and you need to solve that if you want 257 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:18,079 Speaker 1: people to be well fed, rather than obsessing about local production. 258 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 2: And actually, and you made the very obvious point which 259 00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 2: I hadn't thought about, that you could be completely self sufficient, 260 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:27,040 Speaker 2: but if you have a crop failure, if you've also 261 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 2: closed yourself off from the world, then you are instantly 262 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 2: less secure just through that factor. 263 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 1: Lae. Yeah, I mean we all know this in a 264 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 1: way because we all saw the example of Ukraine. Ukraine 265 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: it has this reputation of the bread basket of Europe 266 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 1: going back for decades, and it is it is. On paper, 267 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 1: it's incredibly food secure, it produces more than it consumes. 268 00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 1: It's a big exporter to the rest of the world. 269 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 1: But when it got invaded by Russia in twenty twenty two, 270 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 1: it had to rely on the World Food Program to 271 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 1: feed three million of its population. That just shows you 272 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 1: how just have a large amount of agricultural production doesn't 273 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 1: necessarily make you secure. 274 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 2: So it's fair to say we've not overplanned this conversation. 275 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 2: But you have taken me perfectly to the subject of 276 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:14,160 Speaker 2: Ukraine and Russia. Because energy is the other example where 277 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 2: I think it's the most intuitive to people that we 278 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 2: just can't depend on other nations for our energy, or 279 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 2: at least it would be much better if we weren't. 280 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 2: And the celebrated example which you go through, but I 281 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 2: think a lot of people were have in their heads 282 00:15:26,520 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 2: is you know, the way Europe, especially Germany. But Europe 283 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:34,480 Speaker 2: allowed itself to become very dependent on Russian gas, despite 284 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 2: that the risk of overreliance on Russia being identified by 285 00:15:38,960 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 2: Americans and the American intelligence community and others. So what 286 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 2: about energy. Surely it is better for us to be 287 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:48,680 Speaker 2: independent in our energy supply, especially now we can get 288 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 2: all of this nice you know wind. 289 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 1: And so yeah, yeah, well, I mean it takes me 290 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 1: back again to twenty twenty two when this was what 291 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 1: the politicians were saying. This, as you said, Stefinitie, it 292 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 1: shows the folly of relying on energy imports. A country 293 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 1: like Russia can hold you hostage and cut off the 294 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 1: supply and then you having to have power cuts or rationing. 295 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 1: I found it very compelling that argument in twenty twenty two. 296 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 2: But when you start as you were paying your gas. 297 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 1: Bill, yeah, absolutely, I'm sure we all felt this, didn't 298 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 1: we And it does tell so perfectly, doesn't it with 299 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 1: the argument that we should decarbonize and rely on renewables. 300 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 1: And it's all true to some extent. But if you again, 301 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 1: if you go into the weeds, go into the supply 302 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:32,680 Speaker 1: chains of all these renewable technologies, you just see how 303 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 1: distributed they are right around the world. Just for example, 304 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 1: the battery that goes into an electric vehicle, the amount 305 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:43,960 Speaker 1: of critical minerals that it relies on is vastly greater 306 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:47,320 Speaker 1: than a petrol car. And those critical minerals are spread 307 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 1: right across many, many different countries. There's no single country 308 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 1: can realistically source all those critical minerals at home and 309 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: have a national supply chain. Goes for China, goes to America, 310 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 1: certainly goes for the UK. And so you just go 311 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,360 Speaker 1: through all these renewable technologies and you realize that actually 312 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:07,120 Speaker 1: we are going to be reliant on imports if we're 313 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:11,640 Speaker 1: going to have a renewable energy generating sector. So that's 314 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:14,239 Speaker 1: not to say that it shouldn't be done. It's to 315 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 1: say that, actually, be wary of the rhetoric of self 316 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 1: sufficiency or tarchy when it comes to energy, just as 317 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:24,879 Speaker 1: you should be wary of it when it comes to food, 318 00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:27,119 Speaker 1: or semiconductors or medicines. 319 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:29,360 Speaker 2: If you read the book, we can sort of take 320 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 2: it as read that he goes through quite a few things, medicine, steel, semiconductors. 321 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 2: It's really hard, all of them to be self sufficient. 322 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:41,480 Speaker 2: If Donald Trump was sitting here, he would say, yeah, 323 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 2: to right, it's really hard because we've had thirty years 324 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:46,920 Speaker 2: on the wrong path. You know, we took the cheaper option, 325 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:49,720 Speaker 2: the easier option. We took advantage of like falling to 326 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 2: transportation costs, companies becoming more global, the fact there was 327 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 2: a sort of broadly peaceful global environment. Countries are all 328 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,159 Speaker 2: seemed to be moving in the right direction. So businesses 329 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:05,960 Speaker 2: created these enormously complicated supply chains that they never should 330 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 2: have done. And yes, it's going to be really painful 331 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 2: to aren't pick it all. But if we don't, we're 332 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 2: going to wake up tomorrow and everything we want is 333 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 2: you know, being made by China. 334 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:17,439 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, Donald Trump has changed his tune on this, 335 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 1: hasn't he, Because I'm sure you remember definitely in the 336 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:22,719 Speaker 1: campaign trail he wasn't talking about the long, difficult journey 337 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 1: to a more resilient American economy. Now you're right, he 338 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:28,120 Speaker 1: has started to talk about how this will be hard 339 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 1: and there are other you know, there will be sacrifices 340 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:37,360 Speaker 1: a long way. But I think how would I try 341 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 1: and persuade Donald Trump? 342 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 2: Just tim right? The Biden administration in some ways institutionalized 343 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:49,399 Speaker 2: his kind of gut instinct slash tweets, and he did. 344 00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 2: They did sort of focus more on resilient, focus more 345 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 2: on industrial bis. But it was based on that same 346 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,840 Speaker 2: negation of the original idea of global or what a 347 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:03,199 Speaker 2: driven the previous version of globalization, which is we have 348 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 2: to think about the long term costs our strategic position 349 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 2: with regard, particularly with regard to China, not just the 350 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 2: short term cost benefits. 351 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:14,199 Speaker 1: Yeah. I think Richard Baldwin, I think you've interviewed recently, 352 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 1: had a great phrase that Trump was not how did 353 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:20,920 Speaker 1: he put it, He said he wasn't a new turn. 354 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 1: He was a culmination of something that had been going 355 00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 1: on for a very long time in politics, this gradual 356 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:30,520 Speaker 1: sense of, you know, globalization is not working the way 357 00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 1: we thought it, we hoped it would, and we need 358 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:37,240 Speaker 1: to think more about pulling inwards and turning inwards and 359 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:41,359 Speaker 1: doing things differently. Because you're absolutely right, Joe Biden had 360 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:45,040 Speaker 1: a lot of those same instincts as well. His administration 361 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:47,719 Speaker 1: had a lot of the same instincts, and they were 362 00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 1: quite protectionists when it comes to things like Chinese electric vehicles, 363 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:57,680 Speaker 1: Chinese batteries, and you know, really took on what Trump 364 00:19:57,720 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 1: had done in his first term and took it to 365 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,680 Speaker 1: a whole new level. And when it comes to when 366 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 1: it came to making it harder for China to source 367 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 1: the most advanced microchips, they were much more proactive than 368 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,879 Speaker 1: the Donald Trump had been. So I think that's really 369 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 1: important to recognize that this isn't something that just don't 370 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,679 Speaker 1: just started when Trump came to the White House. What 371 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 1: I would point out to people who were not Trumpian 372 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: but sort of take the view that globalization has gone 373 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 1: too far is that you'll miss it when it's gone. 374 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 1: I think it's probably the right way to frame it 375 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 1: because we have taken it for granted that some of 376 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 1: the huge benefits, not just in terms of like my 377 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 1: family in China, but all our lives have been enhanced 378 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 1: and we've been made much more productive and wealthier as 379 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:50,159 Speaker 1: a result of globalization over these past fifty years. In 380 00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 1: a sense, trade is being used as a scapegoat for 381 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 1: the failures of domestic politics to redistribute those gains and 382 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,919 Speaker 1: to compensate the low from it. So I would say, 383 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:05,120 Speaker 1: I suppose if Trump was here saying, you know, there 384 00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:10,400 Speaker 1: are undoubtedly problems in America, economic problems, communities which are suffering, 385 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 1: but don't make the story all about trade. Make it 386 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 1: about how you can use the immense resources of America 387 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:22,280 Speaker 1: to improve their lives. It's quite interesting. I was listening 388 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 1: to JD. Vans, who's slightly more sophisticated figger than Trump 389 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 1: when it comes to making these arguments. And he gave 390 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 1: a speech in March to the American Dynamism Conference, and 391 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 1: he said the problem of the American and global economies 392 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 1: that has been too addicted to cheap labor, both at 393 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:46,479 Speaker 1: home and talking about immigration and abroad, meaning outsourcing American 394 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 1: multinationals sending their supply chain to broad cheap labor. And 395 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 1: he said that as undermined American innovation, which is pretty 396 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 1: crazy because America is the most innovative and dynamic economy 397 00:21:57,920 --> 00:21:59,920 Speaker 1: by far in the world. If it's had a net 398 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,440 Speaker 1: negative impact on American innovation, it's pretty hard to see 399 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 1: it in the statistics. 400 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 2: But well, you mentioned Jadevance. I mean, I think it's 401 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:08,919 Speaker 2: interesting because it comes through more strongly in what he 402 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:12,720 Speaker 2: says and that speech. Part of the kind of rebellion 403 00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 2: against globalization that jade Vance represents is kind of rebellion 404 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:22,560 Speaker 2: against modernity, against the modern global economy and what's happened 405 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 2: to communities and day to day life from only get 406 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 2: going for the most productive, the cheapest way of making things. 407 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:36,200 Speaker 2: You know, America's moved to a massively service based economy. 408 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 2: And I think his argument would be, and lots of 409 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:42,120 Speaker 2: people say this that those service sector jobs, even if 410 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 2: you can afford to buy lots of stuff with them, 411 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 2: because you've got all these cheap things that were being 412 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:50,160 Speaker 2: made in China, we quote un quotes were happier when 413 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,639 Speaker 2: we were making that stuff ourselves. And maybe we had 414 00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,440 Speaker 2: a bit less, but we had community and we didn't 415 00:22:55,440 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 2: have you know, endless insecure jobs and other things So 416 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 2: how is it if you're a politician, how do you 417 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 2: tease out that argument against trade from the sort of 418 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,760 Speaker 2: broader sense that we've sort of culturally gone the wrong 419 00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,680 Speaker 2: direction because of this advanced industrialization. 420 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:17,160 Speaker 1: Well, it's incredibly difficult. I mean, Dave the Evans, You're right, 421 00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 1: he does talk in that sort of nostalgia we must 422 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,879 Speaker 1: bring back manufacturing, and others in the administration in America 423 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:24,920 Speaker 1: talk about Americans screwing the little screws into iPhones and 424 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:28,400 Speaker 1: returning to a manufacturing economy. At other times he's more 425 00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:30,280 Speaker 1: with the tech bros. In fact, he was in this 426 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:33,280 Speaker 1: conference he was talking about innovation. But I think it 427 00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:37,239 Speaker 1: comes down to a fundamental problem with the argument that 428 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:42,480 Speaker 1: you reindustrialize America through tariffs and reindustrialize it full stop 429 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 1: to create great jobs. Is that as many people have 430 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:49,200 Speaker 1: pointed out, But it's absolutely true. What you're going to 431 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,480 Speaker 1: get if you bring American if you bring more manufacturing 432 00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 1: back to America, is not a huge amount of really 433 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:57,520 Speaker 1: high paying jobs. And the turning back of the clock 434 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,240 Speaker 1: to the nineteen fifties where everyone took their lunch pale 435 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,679 Speaker 1: to the factory. You're going to have robots now that 436 00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:05,840 Speaker 1: will create higher incomes for some people, but it's not 437 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,080 Speaker 1: going to fundamentally shift the structure of the American economy 438 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:11,440 Speaker 1: the labor force back to the way it was all 439 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:14,960 Speaker 1: those decades ago. So I think I think the honest 440 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: answer is that, yes, there's a big seam of nostalgia 441 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 1: that people like Jdvans and many others in America are mining, 442 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,000 Speaker 1: but it's not one that is going to be actually deliverable. 443 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,239 Speaker 2: I guess one other sort of obvious response to some 444 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:35,320 Speaker 2: of what you've said is if it's also inevitable, if 445 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 2: there are all these forces technology and other things that 446 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 2: are putting on us a path to integration and making 447 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,720 Speaker 2: it extremely hard to unpick these supply chains, then maybe 448 00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:49,160 Speaker 2: we don't have to worry about protectionism after all. Maybe 449 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:50,800 Speaker 2: you know, if it's going to all prove in a 450 00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:52,680 Speaker 2: few years time, if it's going to prove to be 451 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 2: completely counterproductive and or prohibitively costly, shouldn't we just like 452 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:01,520 Speaker 2: sit back and wait for it all to play. 453 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:03,200 Speaker 1: Wait, wait for it, yeah, wait for people to come 454 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,800 Speaker 1: to their senses. I think that is compelling in some ways, 455 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 1: and I think there's a bit of a debate actually 456 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,680 Speaker 1: when you look at analysts because some say, look what deglobalization. 457 00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,520 Speaker 1: You know, in some measures in terms of data flows 458 00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:18,280 Speaker 1: across borders. If you look at the actual complexity of 459 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:22,600 Speaker 1: supply chains, we have never been more more globalized than 460 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 1: we are today. Notwithstanding these these many years of politicians 461 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 1: making these policies to withdraw us inwards and attempt to 462 00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:34,880 Speaker 1: resure and friendshure, et cetera. If that's the result, then 463 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,199 Speaker 1: you know, why why are we even talking about this 464 00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,960 Speaker 1: term deglobalization. I think my answer would be, on the 465 00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 1: one hand, that's true, but if you look at the 466 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:48,199 Speaker 1: number of actual acts that politicians have taken to put 467 00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:52,400 Speaker 1: barriers up, it is definitely glowing going up. You are 468 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 1: seeing a trend of politicians to fight against this global integration. 469 00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 1: And my answer would be that you're effectively It may continue, 470 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 1: the wheels may keep turning, but you're throwing sand in 471 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,520 Speaker 1: the gears of it. This is one of the greatest 472 00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:12,159 Speaker 1: engines of prosperity that we've seen ever, is globalization. And 473 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 1: if you make it harder, then your living standards will 474 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,879 Speaker 1: not rise as rapidly as they otherwise would have countries, 475 00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:21,920 Speaker 1: and that's in developing, that's in rich countries and developing 476 00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 1: countries are going to find it harder to get onto 477 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:28,920 Speaker 1: that economic ladder of having better lives and integrating into 478 00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:32,600 Speaker 1: it into global supply chains in the way that China 479 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:34,520 Speaker 1: did in the past, in a way that countries in 480 00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 1: Africa are trying to now so effectively pulling up the ladder. 481 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:41,320 Speaker 1: So I think, yes, I think there is a strong 482 00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:43,360 Speaker 1: case for saying that we are not going to deglobalize. 483 00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:45,040 Speaker 1: It will just be too hard. But I think we 484 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,560 Speaker 1: can still make life very difficult for ourselves and much 485 00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:48,879 Speaker 1: more difficult than it needs to be. 486 00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,800 Speaker 2: And the response to the strategic worry that we will 487 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 2: wake up in twenty years time and find that a 488 00:26:56,720 --> 00:27:00,919 Speaker 2: very different government, very strong government, with very different value 489 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:06,720 Speaker 2: system certainly doesn't believe in journalists of Newsnight has control 490 00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 2: over key parts of our economy because we've decided to 491 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 2: buy all our solar panels from them, and all of 492 00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:14,159 Speaker 2: our electric batteries and all our electric cars. How do 493 00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:14,919 Speaker 2: we get around that? 494 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,920 Speaker 1: Well, that is that is an extremely tough one. China. 495 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:21,480 Speaker 1: I mean, I've talked, I started talking about how the 496 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:24,159 Speaker 1: miracle of globalization in China. I've seen the benefits of it, 497 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,359 Speaker 1: but I've also seen the downsides. I've seen the dark 498 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,359 Speaker 1: side of what the new China, what the Chinese regime 499 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:34,040 Speaker 1: is in terms of the crushing of personal freedoms of 500 00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:37,159 Speaker 1: people in China, in terms of its economic mismanagement. I mean, 501 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,480 Speaker 1: everyone's talks about China as this great economic success, and 502 00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:43,480 Speaker 1: in many dimensions it is, but it's also really messed 503 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:47,760 Speaker 1: up the property market. It's it's got deep set economic 504 00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 1: problems as well, and I've seen that in the same 505 00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,359 Speaker 1: way I've seen the benefits. I've seen that up close 506 00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:56,000 Speaker 1: in terms of my own family in China, and it's 507 00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 1: a very I can understand why Western politicians say we 508 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,440 Speaker 1: should be pus much distance between ourselves and this regime 509 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:05,800 Speaker 1: as possible. I completely understand that. At the same time, 510 00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:10,359 Speaker 1: we take an issue like decarbonization, China has such a 511 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:13,960 Speaker 1: head start when it comes to the technology of solar 512 00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:18,040 Speaker 1: panels and electric batteries and also wind turbines that it's 513 00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 1: simply not feasible for the world to decarbonize by twenty fifty, 514 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:26,440 Speaker 1: as nations have signed up to do without relying very, 515 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 1: very heavily on Chinese renewable energy. Kit that's just the reality, 516 00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,280 Speaker 1: and governments are going to have to choose there. And 517 00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:37,800 Speaker 1: also I think that China is so integrated into global 518 00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:40,440 Speaker 1: supply chains that this fantasy, you know, I think it 519 00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 1: is a fantasy saying that it's simply a case of 520 00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 1: you just turn the switch and it's and it's removed. 521 00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:47,800 Speaker 1: And I think Donald Trump has actually found this out 522 00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 1: since Liberation Day. He started out very bullishly about the 523 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:55,240 Speaker 1: ability of him, you know, decoupling from China, as he 524 00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,280 Speaker 1: put it, and within a couple of months they're making 525 00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:01,640 Speaker 1: the deal. And I think a lot of American retailers 526 00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:04,600 Speaker 1: went to see him, called him and said, the reality is, 527 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 1: if you don't change course on this, you're going to 528 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 1: have empty shelves, You're going to have prices spiking. And 529 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:13,440 Speaker 1: I think that message got through. 530 00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 2: Actually, I was in Hong Kong last week and I 531 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:19,320 Speaker 2: was struck by there's quite a few people. I sort 532 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:24,400 Speaker 2: of asked their investor types, market types. But what's surprised 533 00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 2: you most in the last six months or even the 534 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 2: last twelve months. None of them said anything to do 535 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,200 Speaker 2: with Donald Trump. It was all how fast China has 536 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:37,440 Speaker 2: progressed in ex technology or why technology. There's so many 537 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,880 Speaker 2: articles you read now or reports on any subject, whether 538 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:45,640 Speaker 2: it's trade, technology, innovation, and you could just have a 539 00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,640 Speaker 2: sub headline China's going to win. I mean, is that 540 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,120 Speaker 2: what you're basically saying that we should just accept that 541 00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 2: China's going to end up dominant in all these areas 542 00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:57,120 Speaker 2: and we will just lose out by trying to be more, 543 00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,160 Speaker 2: more diversified and less reliant on it. 544 00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:05,000 Speaker 1: Well, I think going back to the what JD. Evans 545 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,760 Speaker 1: was saying and linking that to the ev picture of 546 00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,840 Speaker 1: China's got such that amazing lead in electric vehicles. You 547 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 1: know BYD you'll be seeing a lot more of those, 548 00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,960 Speaker 1: I think on our streets, their electric vehicles in the 549 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:20,040 Speaker 1: coming months and years. But what JD. Evans was saying 550 00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:26,360 Speaker 1: was that innovation needs a barrier, he needs trade walls 551 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 1: with the rest of the world, and then American companies 552 00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:30,920 Speaker 1: will innovate more. I think the evidence suggests the exact 553 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:34,360 Speaker 1: opposite will happen. If American wars itself off, it will 554 00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,920 Speaker 1: not be subject to competition from companies like BYD, from 555 00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:42,479 Speaker 1: a Chinese battery makers, etc. And they will stagnate behind 556 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 1: those walls. What you are more likely to get and 557 00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,880 Speaker 1: you have a bit of confidence and faith in Western 558 00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,680 Speaker 1: companies actually faced with that competition. I think they can 559 00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,680 Speaker 1: do well. I think they can innovate and they can 560 00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:57,360 Speaker 1: properly compete. Don't forget China only moved into this space, 561 00:30:57,800 --> 00:30:59,760 Speaker 1: what was it, you know ten to fifteen years ago, 562 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 1: been an incredibly rapid development. So if you think about 563 00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,840 Speaker 1: it in those terms, I don't see why Western carmakers 564 00:31:06,880 --> 00:31:12,840 Speaker 1: or Western technology companies can't compete with China and through competition, 565 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:14,480 Speaker 1: I think what's more likely to happen is if you 566 00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,160 Speaker 1: put up trade barriers and you don't compete, you will 567 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,480 Speaker 1: stagnate and you will fall further behind. 568 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:21,360 Speaker 2: Okay, well that was fantastic. 569 00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,520 Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Thank you, Thank you all. 570 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,200 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Trump and Noomics from Bloomberg. It 571 00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:33,680 Speaker 2: was hosted by me Stephanie Flanders and I was joined 572 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:37,360 Speaker 2: by Ben Chu at the Conduit in London. Trump and 573 00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,360 Speaker 2: Nomics is produced by Summer, Sadi and Moses and with 574 00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,720 Speaker 2: help from Amy Keen and special thanks this week to 575 00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,880 Speaker 2: Asher de Lenarole and Lily black Cell at the Conduit. 576 00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:51,080 Speaker 2: Sound design is by Blake Maples and Sage Bowman is 577 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:55,160 Speaker 2: the head of Bloomberg Podcast. Please to help others find 578 00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:57,880 Speaker 2: and enjoy the show. Please rate it and review it 579 00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:59,440 Speaker 2: highly Wherever you found. 580 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:07,480 Speaker 1: It and distils from Stetson. To Pass from Stetton