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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest Vetting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: We're growing in job spectator.

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Speaker 4: I'm setting it to cash.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to wind.

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Speaker 5: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to pull,

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Speaker 3: and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Hello, everyone, Welcome back to another NFL episode of the

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Speaker 2: award winning Action Network podcast. I am Matthew Friedman, the

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Speaker 2: editor in chief of Fantasy Labs, with me or Shawn

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Speaker 2: Corner and Chris Raybond. Shawn is the Action Network Director

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Speaker 2: of Predictive Analytics. Chris is a senior editor and analyst

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Speaker 2: at the Action Network. And there are two of the

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Speaker 2: best fantasy football rankers in the world. In joining us

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Speaker 2: is a very special guest, one of the godfathers of

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Speaker 2: the fantasy industry, Sigmund Bloom, a co owner of Football

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Speaker 2: Guys and the host of the On the Couch podcast. Sigmund,

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Speaker 2: thanks for joining us.

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Speaker 5: Thanks.

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Speaker 6: You know, I still think of myself as a soldier,

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Speaker 6: and I guess I just survived long enough. I guess

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Speaker 6: that's how it works in the mafia, right, So I'm

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Speaker 6: just glad I'm still alive in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: You start out as a button man and then you

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Speaker 2: work your way up exactly, you know. So you you

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Speaker 2: have worked your way up sufficiently and now you are

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Speaker 2: You're I mean, I don't know if i'd say you're

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Speaker 2: a full dawn, but you're at a minimum and underboss.

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Speaker 5: A man us all I really care about.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yes, you are certainly made. So it's great to

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Speaker 2: have you back on the podcast. We are in the

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Speaker 2: middle of a fantastic run of shows with lots of

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Speaker 2: great guests. We've recently had Evan Silva, Ian Hart at

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Speaker 2: Stenny Carter, Matt Harmon, Mike Taglier, Graham Barfield, Jake Seely,

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Speaker 2: and Dave Richard.

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Speaker 3: That is a murderer's row.

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Speaker 2: And we just released our annual Fantasy ONEAH one show.

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Speaker 2: All those episodes are fantastic. Check them out as well

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Speaker 2: as our rankings and up to the minute projections in

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Speaker 2: the Fantasy Football chief Sheet at the Action Network. Today,

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Speaker 2: we were talking with Sig about the potential Fantasy bust

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Speaker 2: for twenty twenty. The guys we're looking to steer clear of.

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Speaker 2: If you like what you hear, give us that five

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Speaker 2: star rating, leave review. We would appreciate it. Gentlemen, let's

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Speaker 2: get into it, Sig. This episode is about the bust.

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Speaker 2: But I'm curious about the players you like. The guys

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Speaker 2: you've gotten the most of in your draft this year. Quarterback,

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Speaker 2: running back, wide receiver, tight end.

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Speaker 3: Who do you like?

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Speaker 5: Quarterback Early Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 6: I still think he's a top five value. Get him

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Speaker 6: in the second, third round, Late, Teddy Bridgewater, even Tyrod Taylor.

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Speaker 6: I see both of those guys vastly outproducing the minimal cost,

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Speaker 6: maybe even getting.

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Speaker 5: Off to hot starts.

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Speaker 6: Running back late, a ton of Duke Johnson. I'm going

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Speaker 6: to be a sucker for Duke Johnson again. And I'm

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Speaker 6: hines a chance to be the new Austin Eckler. I

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Speaker 6: was really impressive what I saw from him last year.

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Speaker 6: Wide receiver, I end up with a lot of Adam

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Speaker 6: Feeling probably gonna lead the league in targets this year.

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Speaker 6: I end up late with a ton of Randall Cobb.

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Speaker 6: I think he might lead the Texans and targets.

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Speaker 5: Tight end.

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Speaker 6: I end up with George Kittle, a lot if I

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Speaker 6: get a late second round draft slot, and the injuries

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Speaker 6: of wide receiver for the forty nine ers just make

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Speaker 6: him look better and better late Blake Jarwin, IRV Smith.

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Speaker 6: Depends on which one falls, Mike Kasicki, there's a ton

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Speaker 6: of late round tight ends. They might all be right

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Speaker 6: picks this year.

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Speaker 4: Even do you tend to have a general strategy when

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Speaker 4: it comes to drafting, like zero running back or robust?

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Speaker 4: Did you have anything like that?

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Speaker 5: Sure?

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Speaker 2: This year?

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Speaker 5: I think it's get your running back early.

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Speaker 6: It can be in the early second, maybe even the

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Speaker 6: second Get a running back, and then wait to take

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Speaker 6: your second running back.

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Speaker 5: Feel free to throw darts there.

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Speaker 6: I like getting early tight ends and quarterbacks this year

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Speaker 6: because the second round, the second round, wide receivers and

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Speaker 6: running backs don't look that different than the third rounders,

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Speaker 6: or even if we're talking about wide receiver, the fourth

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Speaker 6: rounders the fifth round.

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Speaker 5: So I'm taking somebody I think that can dominate at

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Speaker 5: their position.

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Speaker 6: There and overall, upside drafting, upside drafting, upside drafting, you're

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Speaker 6: always thinking about a player's best case scenario.

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Speaker 5: You're going to use your skills as a good.

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Speaker 6: Waiver wire player, trading depth, is going to be the

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Speaker 6: residue of just managing your team. Will you don't need

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Speaker 6: to draft for depth even in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 3: Hey, say you just mentioned you're kind of always thinking

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Speaker 3: about the upside, But when it comes to a bust,

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Speaker 3: how do you actually define it?

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Speaker 5: This is a good question, right, We could do it

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Speaker 5: the whole hour on this question.

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Speaker 6: First of all, like, anybody taken after the seventh eighth

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Speaker 6: round can't be a bust. Really, you invest so little

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Speaker 6: in them anyway, any player outside the top one hundred,

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Speaker 6: this is why you're thinking upside, because you're not attached

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Speaker 6: to them.

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Speaker 5: You'll kick them to the curb after week one.

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Speaker 6: Maybe we can say they are a bust in terms

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Speaker 6: of their own career expectations or the arc of their career,

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Speaker 6: but not as a fantasy investment. And then I suppose

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Speaker 6: the next layer would be whether a player is a

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Speaker 6: player have to be culpable in the circumstances of his underperformance,

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Speaker 6: right like if like we're the I guess James Connor

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Speaker 6: and Juju Smith Schuster were busts last year. But how

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Speaker 6: big a part of that was Ben Roethlisberger's injury? At

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Speaker 6: least when we think about their bust risk this year.

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Speaker 6: If players getting injured, you might classify differently than somebody,

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Speaker 6: say like David Montgomery, who got all the opportunity, but

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Speaker 6: what wasn't able to convert in a way that made

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Speaker 6: us trust him. So we might not treat all busts differently.

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Speaker 6: But I think that if it's a first round pick,

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Speaker 6: if they're not being a difference banker in your lineup,

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Speaker 6: they're a bust.

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Speaker 5: If they're a second.

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Speaker 6: Round pick, even third round pick, if you can't confidently

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Speaker 6: start them every week, they're a bust.

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Speaker 5: If they're fourth to seventh.

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Speaker 6: Round pick, if you don't know when you can start them,

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Speaker 6: if they become a pain to think about every time

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Speaker 6: you're setting your lineup, that's a threshold. I think for

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Speaker 6: being a bust, you still want somebody who at least

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Speaker 6: gives you some comfort level. And I think this question

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Speaker 6: is really important because in some ways, getting the busts

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Speaker 6: right in your preseason evaluation can be more important than

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Speaker 6: the hits.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, sigmund I agree entirely with you about early on

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Speaker 2: thinking about these busts. It's more important to get right

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Speaker 2: the guys that you stay away from as long as

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Speaker 2: you don't step on any of those land mines. You're

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Speaker 2: probably gonna do. Okay, you have a pretty decent chance

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Speaker 2: of being competitive, especially if you in the later rounds

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Speaker 2: have upside in mind and you're able to hit on

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Speaker 2: some of those guys later in the draft. You know,

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Speaker 2: and I also like the idea that you mentioned that

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Speaker 2: there's kind of the distinction between guys who suffer an

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Speaker 2: injury and the guys who are on the field but underperform.

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Speaker 2: Some people might continue to think of both of those

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Speaker 2: guys as bust, but they're there a clear kind of

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Speaker 2: difference in the way that they reach their underperformance in

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Speaker 2: what it might mean both for that season and then

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Speaker 2: also future seasons. Sean, I want to kick it to

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Speaker 2: you and then I'm gonna ask Raton on this, what

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Speaker 2: is your personal definition of a bust? How do you

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Speaker 2: kind of evaluate that and think of it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's pretty complicated. Like six said, I could talk

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Speaker 4: about this for an hour, but I think it does

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Speaker 4: have to do with opportunity costs as well. So I

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Speaker 4: think you could have guys bus later on. I know

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Speaker 4: you and I we were gravitating towards like Austin Hooper

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Speaker 4: and Mark Andrews at the tail end and drafts a

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Speaker 4: tight end, and if you were going for other tight

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Speaker 4: ends at that point, you know, I would consider them

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Speaker 4: a bus just because you missed out on that upside.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I think an injury, I wouldn't necessarily call

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Speaker 4: that a bus. That's something that you can't really predict.

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Speaker 4: So I mean the classic example would be David Johnson

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Speaker 4: last year, who, yes, he deal with injuries, but I

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Speaker 4: mean even when he was healthy again, I mean, he

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Speaker 4: was a backup running back and a lot of people

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Speaker 4: took him fifth overall. So I mean, David Johnson is

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Speaker 4: probably the definition of a bust where if you take

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Speaker 4: it in the first three rounds and you can't confidently

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Speaker 4: start them later in the season, that's basically the textbook

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Speaker 4: definition of a bust.

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Speaker 2: In my opinion, Raveon where are you on this?

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Speaker 3: I feel like a lot of people think about a

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Speaker 3: bust in terms of like blame and like do we

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Speaker 3: blame the player? Do we blame ourselves for taking that player?

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Speaker 3: Whereas I just think of a bust as anybody who

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Speaker 3: severely underperforms their value in the early rounds. So if

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Speaker 3: you're drafting in the first six, seven, rounds and that

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Speaker 3: player is not returning starter value. That's a bus. I

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Speaker 3: think every player has the potential to bust. There's a

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Speaker 3: percentage chance that every player could bust. So you know,

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Speaker 3: as you guys mentioned, it's just about kind of staying

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Speaker 3: away from the guys with the highest likelihood to bust. Like,

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Speaker 3: if a guy gets injured, even if it's not his fault,

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Speaker 3: he's still a bust. Or you know, something unlucky happens,

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Speaker 3: it's still a bust. So everyone has this like baseline

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Speaker 3: potential bust rate. And then there are guys that we'll

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Speaker 3: talk about that that likelihood is elevated.

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Speaker 2: All right, well, let's get into these guys in more depth,

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Speaker 2: and sig I once start at the quarterback position and

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Speaker 2: get your thoughts on you know, the guys you know,

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Speaker 2: maybe maybe two guys that you think of as the

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Speaker 2: quarterbacks who have bust potential. So you know, probably someone

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Speaker 2: who's going in the top eight or so in the position,

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Speaker 2: maybe the top twelve at the position, but guys that

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Speaker 2: you think, you know, even though I'm willing to take

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Speaker 2: a quarterback early, I want to stay away from this guy.

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Speaker 6: Deshaun Watson comes to mind right away. And it's because

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Speaker 6: of the uncertainty without DeAndre Hopkins, combined with Watson's pensiant

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Speaker 6: for holding onto the ball for a long time, never

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Speaker 6: say die attitude about making place takes a lot of sacks,

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Speaker 6: so then that in turn increases the injury risk. He

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Speaker 6: was already up and down last year. Watson on average

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Speaker 6: was good, but it wasn't a as smooth ride as

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Speaker 6: the final ranking would indicate. So in that tier that's

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Speaker 6: pretty tightly packed. I'm looking at Dak Prescott and Russell

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Speaker 6: Wilson before I take Watson, so I'm not usually getting

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Speaker 6: Watson and even Kyler Murray. I mean, I want Kyler

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Speaker 6: Murray to be a thing. We all want Kyler Murray

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Speaker 6: to be a thing. Still, you know, there was an

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Speaker 6: ideal offseason for his game to progress. I think Hopkins

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Speaker 6: is going to help him, But when you look at

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Speaker 6: the ceiling that Prescott and Wilson and Watson really have

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Speaker 6: already established, it's pretty aspirational to put Murray with them

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Speaker 6: at this point.

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Speaker 2: Sean, where are you on those guys? Watson and to

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Speaker 2: a lesser degree, Kyler Murray.

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Speaker 4: I still like those guys, especially where they're going. I

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Speaker 4: have them basically in that tier two range where I

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Speaker 4: do like their floor ceiling combo. So the guy that

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Speaker 4: I'm avoiding would be Josh Allen. And you know, I

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Speaker 4: don't think it's like an egregious pick when people take them.

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Speaker 4: I understand the upside. I think when it comes to

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Speaker 4: Josh Allen, though, I think people just assume, you know,

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Speaker 4: he's gonna improve in the passing game this year, just

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Speaker 4: because you know it's his third season, he has Stefon Diggs,

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Speaker 4: and then we'll just also carry over all those rushing

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Speaker 4: stats as well, and I just don't think that's true.

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Speaker 4: You know, his first two seasons he's had eight and

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Speaker 4: nine rushing touchdowns, and I think that's where we'll see

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Speaker 4: some regression heading into this year. Last year, he converted

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Speaker 4: eight of the ten rush temps inside the five. That

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Speaker 4: is definitely unsustainable. I would I would assume that would

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Speaker 4: go closer to fifty percent, and a lot of that

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Speaker 4: had to do with Frank gorge As being absolutely brutal

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Speaker 4: by the goal line. He converted two of twelve rush

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Speaker 4: teps inside the five, So if you think about it,

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Speaker 4: that kind of led to a couple more attempts for

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Speaker 4: Allen to begin with. So you know, I think when

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Speaker 4: they dropped Zach Moss, I think they do intend to

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Speaker 4: have him sort of be the goal line back. And

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Speaker 4: if he's even you know, more efficient than Frank gor

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Speaker 4: it's gonna hurt Josh Allen's upside there. So I just think,

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Speaker 4: you know, I'm expecting closer to five and a half

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Speaker 4: rushing touchdowns as opposed to nine again, so he's going

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Speaker 4: to have to improve significantly in the passing game to

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Speaker 4: really replace those fancy points. So that's why I think

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Speaker 4: just people are being a little too bullish on Josh

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Speaker 4: Allen where he's going at QB seven. Another guy, real

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Speaker 4: quick is just Aaron Rodgers. I think he's he's being

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Speaker 4: drafted QB twelve based on name value. I mean, the

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Speaker 4: Packers had a very you know, d gaff offseason when

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Speaker 4: it comes to giving him some help. You know, they

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Speaker 4: added Devin Funches, they said here you go, and then

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Speaker 4: he opted out, So you know it's I still like

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Speaker 4: DeVante Adams this year. I think most of the targets

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Speaker 4: will go there. I could, you know, take Allen Lazard

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Speaker 4: later in the draft. I think Aaron Rodgers will be

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Speaker 4: heading a more run heavy offense this year, and I

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Speaker 4: just think taking him twelve it's probably based on namesake.

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Speaker 4: I think there's better upside around that range. So that's

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Speaker 4: why I think he'll be a bus if you're taking

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Speaker 4: as a QB one this year, sink.

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Speaker 2: You gave a little chuckle there. What are your thoughts

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Speaker 2: on Aaron Rodgers.

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Speaker 6: The fear with Rogers is last year crushed and Daniel

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Speaker 6: Jones proofile wasn't that different, And Jared Goff wasn't that

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Speaker 6: different either. He crushed in those easy matchups right like

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Speaker 6: weak tilting numbers, which then made you want to go

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Speaker 6: back in and dip your toe in the water and

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Speaker 6: start him, and he kept rolling sneak eyes, rolling snake eyes.

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Speaker 6: Now Gough and Daniel Jones, like Daniel Jones, everyone knows

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Speaker 6: that by now like Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Francisco to open

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Speaker 6: the season, So you're probably not gonna playim in those

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Speaker 6: first three games. You're not gonna be tempted. You're not

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Speaker 6: gonna be tempted with Jared Goff after what he did

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Speaker 6: in November when he didn't throw a touchdown.

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Speaker 5: For the whole month.

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Speaker 6: But Aaron Rodgers will pull you back in, you know,

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Speaker 6: have that one five touchdown game against the horrendous pass

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Speaker 6: defense and then you think, oh, he's back, but it's

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Speaker 6: just not going to happen. And I think that's one

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Speaker 6: of the best reality show stories of the season, right

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Speaker 6: it's just watching what happens with the simmering tension in

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Speaker 6: Green Bay after what they did in the draft.

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Speaker 2: Rayvon, who are you staying away from here? I imagine

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Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers might have been one of your guys.

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Speaker 3: Oh Man drafted Aaron Rodgers in like four years. I mean,

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Speaker 3: you know, like I'll play him in dfs. You know

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Speaker 3: Essex said in those matches, But Aaron Rodgers, he's he's

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Speaker 3: not He's not worth it at this point. He's not

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Speaker 3: running as much. He's a guy that you want to

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Speaker 3: pick up or trade for at the right time, and

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Speaker 3: you sparing, you don't need him on your roster all year.

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Speaker 3: But going back to you know, quarterbacks who could be

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Speaker 3: potentially busts, I would say it's pretty much every quarterback

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Speaker 3: that is going in the top eight except Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 3: because I think and even Patrick Mahomes we saw last year.

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Speaker 3: You know, injuries can strike, but that's a very I

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Speaker 3: think that was on his lowest end range of outcomes.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that's likely repeat. But I mean you

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Speaker 3: look at a guy like Lamar Jackson, as much upside

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Speaker 3: as he has, he's six, with two two hundred and

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Speaker 3: twelve pounds, He's gonna be running the ball one hundred

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Speaker 3: plus times most likely. You know, the ball is gonna

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Speaker 3: be in his hands regardless. Like he could get hurt,

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Speaker 3: things could happen with him. And there are so many

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks that you can take late that you know, if

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Speaker 3: these guys get hurt, if they miss a game, if

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Speaker 3: they're just average instead are great, it's really gonna sink you.

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Speaker 3: So I think pretty much every quarterback, uh you know

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Speaker 3: that's going early is it has huge buts bus potential.

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Speaker 3: Uh as far as you know, kind of that pier

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Speaker 3: with Kyler and Dak in particular, I would say, out

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Speaker 3: of those guys, if I had to pick one that's

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Speaker 3: potentially a bust, it would be Kyler. And you know

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Speaker 3: I'm the biggest Kyler fan. But DeAndre Hopkins, as good

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Speaker 3: as he is as a he's like a possession receiver

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Speaker 3: in terms of the numbers. Right, So he averaged around

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Speaker 3: eleven yards per catch last year, even if Kyra throws

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Speaker 3: the ball to him, you know, one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 3: times or so, that's not necessarily going to add a

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Speaker 3: lot to the bottom line in the way. You know,

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Speaker 3: targeting a guy like Deshaun Jackson maybe a hundred times

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Speaker 3: would because Kyra, you know, he was already kind of

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Speaker 3: a low, low to mid range YPA guy. I don't

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Speaker 3: know if Hopkins is there necessarily raise it. So you know,

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Speaker 3: Kyro could just be in that quarterback like eight to

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Speaker 3: twelve range again, and you're spending a high pick on him.

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Speaker 3: So I think just kind of be careful with all

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Speaker 3: of the quarterbacks going going early because you could take

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Speaker 3: your pick. There's just so many late even even if

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Speaker 3: you're fading Rogers or Daniel Jones, who I happened to like.

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Speaker 3: But you know, even if you're fading those guys, there's

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Speaker 3: just so many guys that you can get late. So

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Speaker 3: I think all of these guys have the bus potential

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Speaker 3: that are going early.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, rave on you said that like a true late

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Speaker 2: round quarterback investor, and I'm there with you. All of

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Speaker 2: these guys seem as if they might have some bus potential.

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Speaker 2: When you think about the production that you potentially could

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Speaker 2: get out of the guys who are available later. Josh Allen,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna second Sean Shawn's guy here. He's the one

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Speaker 2: in the top ten that I would probably be the

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Speaker 2: most apprehensive about, in part because I'm just not sure

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Speaker 2: if he's actually a good football player the way that

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Speaker 2: these other guys actually are good football players. It's just,

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Speaker 2: you know, sometimes he has difficulties completing passes that should

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Speaker 2: be routine for most quarterbacks, and when that happens, I

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Speaker 2: just think, you know, what, this guy is someone I

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Speaker 2: just might want to go underweight on in my portfolios

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Speaker 2: of rosters. So he's the guy that at the quarterback

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Speaker 2: position I think has the biggest bus potential for twenty twenty.

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Speaker 3: Oh one more. One more. I forgot to mention just

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Speaker 3: because I feel like no one's really talking about this anymore.

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Speaker 3: But Tom Brady has a lot of bus potential because

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Speaker 3: there are some people that are really excited about drafting him,

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Speaker 3: and there's a lot of optimism about Tampa Bay. But

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Speaker 3: you know, when you're just kind of weighing downside risk,

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Speaker 3: you know, we did see brady struggle last year. I

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Speaker 3: think it had a lot to do with the supporting cast.

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Speaker 3: But then again we try to explain away, you know

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Speaker 3: when Peyton Manning slowed down kind of that year before

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Speaker 3: and then it went you know south, So there's going

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Speaker 3: to come a point in time and it's going to

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Speaker 3: be pretty soon where Brady's gonna just go south, and

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Speaker 3: the same thing for Drew Brees. So I would say

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Speaker 3: those guys have kind of underrated bus potential that people.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if we just forgot that old quarterbacks

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Speaker 3: do this sometimes, but has there really been a lot

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Speaker 3: of hype around that their potentially their bus potential. So

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Speaker 3: be careful with those guys as well.

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Speaker 2: So Chris Raybond hates Tom Brady Andrew.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, no, it's just that they know, like we're

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Speaker 3: not talking about it. But there's a significant downside of

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Speaker 3: risk with like a forty three roar old quarterback who's

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Speaker 3: going on the high end of like those weight round quarterbacks,

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Speaker 3: right like usually having to spend like you know, the

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Speaker 3: QB nine ten ish spots to get those guys.

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Speaker 4: Brady doesn't throw enough interceptions to run the Jamis Winston

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Speaker 4: Ryan Fitzpatrick type of Bucks offense we've become accustomed to.

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Speaker 4: So it's almost like he's too good. But yeah, I

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Speaker 4: can get behind that because he's what QB eleven right now,

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Speaker 4: there's some lower floor than people realize.

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Speaker 6: When we identify a quarterback as a possible bust, when

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Speaker 6: we feel some sense of confidence in it, we should

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Speaker 6: be thinking about the players downstream from them, who will

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Speaker 6: also be suffering to keep our.

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Speaker 5: Rankings ternally consistent.

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Speaker 2: And let's talk about some of these running backs, sig

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Speaker 2: some guys that you want to stay away from. And

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Speaker 2: I'll just say, I feel like there are going to

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Speaker 2: be some very chalk Max David Johnson, Todd Gurley, anyone

401
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Speaker 2: who's basically twenty six years or older, something like that.

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Speaker 2: But who are some of the guys that you're looking

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Speaker 2: at and you're like, you know what, I just I

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Speaker 2: do not want this guy on my team.

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Speaker 6: Austin Eckler is probably a guy that's not gonna end

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Speaker 6: up on my teams. He's just below that break point

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Speaker 6: where in the second round, I'm not sure enough that

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Speaker 6: he's going to be a distinct advantage. I don't even

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Speaker 6: if he's going to hold the line at running back one.

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Speaker 6: And the Chargers offense is another good jumping off point

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Speaker 6: to discussion of we know it's going to be different,

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Speaker 6: How is it going to be different? How do you

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Speaker 6: react appropriately? So I'm probably not taking Austin Eckler in

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Speaker 6: the second. Getting a little further down the board, I'm

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Speaker 6: still probably not talking myself into Devin Singletary at this point.

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Speaker 6: And he's another one where we're going to see if

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Speaker 6: the scales tilt. So another thing I'm looking at now

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Speaker 6: is like combined ADP of backfields, and if it makes sense,

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Speaker 6: Gordon and Lindsay is one that I'm adjusting. Singletary and

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Speaker 6: Moss are probably already talked about Moss once on the show.

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Speaker 6: Probably closer in ADP, or should be closer than the

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Speaker 6: ADP indicates. So I'm probably not going to go for

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Speaker 6: Singletary right now when he's overpriced.

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Speaker 4: I understand you're a made man, but I think ray

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Speaker 4: Bund's considering whacking you for Austin Eckler.

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Speaker 3: Man, you're not. You're not taking Austin Ecker in the second.

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Speaker 3: I'm taking him in the first. Austin Ecker is the

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Speaker 3: I think of all the non you know, top five

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Speaker 3: backs in CEH, he's the guy that could a pro

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Speaker 3: like be a McCaffrey or a poor Man's McCaffrey, I

431
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Speaker 3: should say, like, even if you don't think that he

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Speaker 3: is going to command a huge workload, and he got

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Speaker 3: twenty touches per game when Gordon was out last year,

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Speaker 3: and they don't really have a number two back that

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Speaker 3: they're confident in, as you know, evidence by you know,

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Speaker 3: Justin Jackson's kind of hanging on by the strings to

437
00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 3: that number two jobs. So but even if you think

438
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:09,880
Speaker 3: he's not gonna get that that much of a workload,

439
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 3: he's been extremely productive on a muted workload throughout his

440
00:21:14,760 --> 00:21:17,680
Speaker 3: entire career. He averages, you know, over six hours of touch.

441
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 3: He's done nothing but play good football every time he's

442
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 3: on the field. I don't think he has much of

443
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 3: a floor at all. I think you can argue about

444
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 3: maybe his ceiling and say, okay, you know, maybe they're

445
00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:33,560
Speaker 3: gonna kind of hold his workload in check. But even

446
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:35,159
Speaker 3: if he's one of those guys that gets like that

447
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 3: you know, satellite back usage, he's gonna he's gonna get

448
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 3: more touches in last year, and he's so ridiculously productive,

449
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,199
Speaker 3: he's never average freer than ten yards a catch. I mean,

450
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:49,400
Speaker 3: this guy just is really good. I would not hesitate

451
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 3: to take Eker at all.

452
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:54,119
Speaker 6: Sec What do you think you though, I'm not arguing

453
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 6: with Eckler as a player at all, and I'm like

454
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,920
Speaker 6: any call any of us make, I'm open to being wrong.

455
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 6: I'm concerned about the difference from Rivers to Taylor in

456
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 6: the efficiency of the running back targets, and I'm curious.

457
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 6: That's why I have Nike mindes on like every team,

458
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:14,920
Speaker 6: because I do think that Philip Rivers was one of

459
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:18,600
Speaker 6: the best at finding the running back and was adding value.

460
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,560
Speaker 6: And I'm not saying it won't happen for Eckler. I mean,

461
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:24,639
Speaker 6: Taylor targeted Lashawn McCoy a healthy amount when he was

462
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 6: a Buffalo. But I think it is more like this

463
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 6: was saying about the ceiling if he's not getting goal

464
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,639
Speaker 6: line carries. And I also just think the Chargers are

465
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 6: going to be just dreadfully boring to watch this year.

466
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,159
Speaker 6: I think Anthony Lynn he's coming out and said he

467
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 6: just wants no turnovers. He doesn't like the turnovers that

468
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,879
Speaker 6: Philip Rivers was creating, and he liked that Tyrod Taylor

469
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 6: has a very low interception rate. They have a good defense,

470
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 6: and I actually think that we could see Kelly and Jackson.

471
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 6: I think we could see a kind of they traded

472
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:59,360
Speaker 6: for try Turner. Right, So here's your statement of intention.

473
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,440
Speaker 6: You trade Russell Oakunk for try Turner. They want to

474
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 6: be a ground and pound, limit turnovers, win games, and

475
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 6: a boring Herm Edwards. Every drive that ends in a

476
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,639
Speaker 6: kick is a good drive kind of way. That's what

477
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 6: I'm worried about. But Eckler could transcend that, because he's

478
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:15,879
Speaker 6: been transcending any obstacle in his way so far in

479
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 6: his career.

480
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 3: Think about this, and you know again, and I hate

481
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 3: to keep bringing up CMC because it's not fair. He's

482
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:24,400
Speaker 3: the best. Like I'm not putting anyone in that conversation,

483
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 3: but remember that the Carolina Panthers last year had literally

484
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 3: the worst quarterbacking situation this side of the Steelers. Like

485
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 3: if you look at the numbers, and the only way

486
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 3: for them to sustain any type of offense was to

487
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,159
Speaker 3: give Christian mccaffreck to ball. And like, I don't think, like,

488
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:45,119
Speaker 3: for example, with Sean McCoy, was had anything to do

489
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 3: with Tyrod Taylor or not. Sean McCoy is gonna get

490
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 3: targeted because he's with Sean McCoy it's the same thing.

491
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 3: McCaffrey is the same thing with Eckler. Like Anthony Winn's

492
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 3: a running back coach and Ecker has flourished under him.

493
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 3: I think Anthony Winn thinks this guy is like a superstar.

494
00:23:58,040 --> 00:23:59,880
Speaker 3: I don't think they're at all. Like I think they're

495
00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 3: just worried about. You know, every team needs a number

496
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 3: two back, like I mean, they've been running you know,

497
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 3: Ecker Gordon these past couple of years. You want a

498
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 3: number two back, you got to get that situated. But

499
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 3: I think this dude, Eckler is going to go bananas.

500
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 3: I think the ceiling is high. I think the ceiling

501
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 3: is a poor man CMC and the floor is the

502
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,439
Speaker 3: Austin eck when we've been getting even last year when

503
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 3: he was putting work with with Gordon, it still was

504
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:22,680
Speaker 3: one of the best fantasy assets in the league. But

505
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 3: we were ranking them, you know, him and Gordon, you know,

506
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,119
Speaker 3: top fifteen, even when they were in the lineup together.

507
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 3: So like Gordon's gone. Now Ekra twenty touches last year

508
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,159
Speaker 3: with him out, He's got an eight man. I love him.

509
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:38,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, raightmon, Now that you are sufficiently rankled

510
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 2: and you've given your talk on on Eckler here, he's

511
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,640
Speaker 2: someone you think most certainly will not be a bust.

512
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 2: Who do you think will bust?

513
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,440
Speaker 3: I think the most likely candidate is Todd Gurley. And

514
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 3: the reason I say Gurley over like a David Johnson

515
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 3: or a Leonard Fournette or even a Melvin Gordon is

516
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:01,639
Speaker 3: because I think Gurley has kind of lulled us to

517
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:07,320
Speaker 3: sleep and we have kind of forgotten about his risk

518
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 3: because he hasn't actually missed many games. Even though he

519
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 3: became a much more inefficient football player last year, he

520
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 3: scored a boatload of touchdowns and so he kept his

521
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 3: owners happy. So he's not only kind of tricking us

522
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 3: from you know, just like the casual observer, you know

523
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 3: the eye test, but you know, we're kind of looking

524
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 3: at the numbers, but he tricks us. He tricks the

525
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,200
Speaker 3: models because he hasn't missed games. You know, he has

526
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 3: a high touchdown rate. Like he's going to an offense

527
00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 3: that we expect to be pretty decent at least get

528
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,479
Speaker 3: a lot of yards, So a lot of people are

529
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 3: kind of just sliding him into this. DeVante Freeman Row

530
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 3: Freeman actually had a career year catching passes last year

531
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 3: in terms of the volume. But I don't think Girley

532
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 3: is going to actually do that because if you look

533
00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:03,880
Speaker 3: at the numbers and look at the you know, the metrics,

534
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 3: Girly's best asset at this point in his career is

535
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 3: his pass block. He was extremely abysmal as a pass catcher.

536
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,479
Speaker 3: He was the worst in the league in yards per

537
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 3: route run. He you know, he just became this guy

538
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 3: that is not creating yards the way he used to.

539
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 3: Ever since that that issue, you know, started popping up again.

540
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 3: I think it was mid twenty eighteen. So he's a

541
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,399
Speaker 3: guy that I know. He hasn't really missed a ton

542
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 3: of games yet. I know he really hasn't been completely

543
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 3: unproductive yet, but I see it coming. Players are more

544
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,680
Speaker 3: likely to sustain injuries playing on a surface like you

545
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 3: know in Atlanta, and they also are a team that

546
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 3: may keep four backs active on game days, including a

547
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 3: guy in quadri Allison who is a legitimate threat to

548
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 3: get go line work because wild would you have Quadriy

549
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 3: Allison active. So there are just a lot of red

550
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 3: flags for me. And also dirt cutter running backs haven't

551
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 3: necessarily with the world up either, so that that's the

552
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 3: one guy for me that that kind of stands out

553
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 3: the most. But you know, for Nett, obviously, Chris Thompson

554
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 3: is a guy that Jay Gruden has used an over

555
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 3: fifty percent of the pass downs, you know, these last

556
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 3: few years that he was coaching him in Washington. Now,

557
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,399
Speaker 3: Thompson always plays like ten to eleven games. But you

558
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:22,400
Speaker 3: kind of see the writing on the wall because Fournette

559
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 3: had one hundred targets last year, barely averaged five yards

560
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 3: of target and didn't score a touchdown on any of

561
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 3: those one hundred targets. So you could certainly see Fournette

562
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 3: return to a lower a much lower volume a pass catcher,

563
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 3: and that would put a lot of pressure on him

564
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:42,639
Speaker 3: to have those monster games like he did last year.

565
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,159
Speaker 3: You can't always count on, you know, a couple of

566
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 3: like two hundred yard games to bail you out. I

567
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:49,199
Speaker 3: don't think that team will be very good. I think

568
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:50,959
Speaker 3: they'll be on the wrong side of game script a lot.

569
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 3: And so you know, he's losing passing down work, which

570
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 3: is what really kind of held his value in help

571
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 3: and helped his consistency all year last year. It could

572
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 3: be a rough going. We know that the team is

573
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,399
Speaker 3: not exactly thrilled with Fournette. They tried to trade him. So, uh,

574
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,200
Speaker 3: he's a guy that you know, I would be worried about.

575
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 3: And then kind of some under the radar guys that

576
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 3: that kind of like Brady and Breeze we're not talking

577
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 3: about as Buss, but you know, Alvin Kamara. And this

578
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,440
Speaker 3: is purely based on the fact that you know, I

579
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,959
Speaker 3: take a look at every year at Sports Injury Predictor

580
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,119
Speaker 3: and and kind of look at their their games mispredictions.

581
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 3: Last year they had David Johnson is the most likely

582
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 3: back to you know, to get hurt and miss games,

583
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 3: and we know how that turned out. This year, it's Kamara,

584
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 3: and that kind of caught my eye a little bit.

585
00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 3: You know, they use kind of uh, you know, proprietary

586
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 3: algorithms that take into account past injury history and all

587
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 3: these different things. But you know, Kamara is the guy

588
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 3: who kind of let us down a little bit last year.

589
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 3: He's so good. But you know, if there's a guy

590
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 3: that is gonna kind of, you know, potentially just you know,

591
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 3: struggle with injuries again that we're not really thinking about

592
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 3: with that label, I think it could be Kamara as

593
00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 3: much as I love him, uh, and Ronald Jones is

594
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 3: I'm a little too high. I still think that there

595
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 3: are some red flags there in terms of the fact

596
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 3: that Bruce arians used a three back rotation for much

597
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 3: of you know, for all of the year last year,

598
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 3: and it appears that he's set to do it again.

599
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 3: You know, a goombawawe plays about twenty five to thirty

600
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 3: percent of the of the snaps, usually in a pass

601
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 3: blocking role. And then you got, you know, the McCoy signing.

602
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 3: Lets you know that, you know, they draft Bole and

603
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 3: they sign McCoy, they obviously want someone to kind of

604
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 3: replace that Barber role as well. So I think Jones's

605
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 3: ceiling is a little bit capped, even though I do

606
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 3: think he has some breakout potential. The buzz is starting

607
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 3: to grow a little too much here.

608
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, Rayvon, I agree Jones. With the ceiling capped at

609
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 2: twelve touchdowns and fifteen hundred yards, that sounds horrible.

610
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 3: Oh my goodness. You know, you know what Matthew Freeman

611
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 3: did a lot like on air, he listed a whole

612
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 3: bunch of backs that like had these second years, similar

613
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 3: to Ronald Jones. He's like, yeah, like Sakon Barkley and

614
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 3: Ezekiel Elliott with failing to mention that none of them

615
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 3: averaged like a negative yards per carry their rookie year. Like,

616
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 3: there're those guys, I think, No, I think Jones is

617
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 3: gonna have a decent year. But I just think, like

618
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 3: it's a mass problem. Right If you're using a guy

619
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 3: on pass downs, you know, twenty five or thirty percent

620
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 3: of the time, and you have three tight ends that

621
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:14,719
Speaker 3: could catch, so you're not gonna send the running back

622
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 3: on many routes. He's still more or less going to

623
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 3: be a you know, glorified two down grinder who you

624
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 3: know is in is in a good offense where they're

625
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:27,080
Speaker 3: you know, they're rotating three backs, and then he might

626
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 3: get lucky and he might not. So I just think

627
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 3: the buzz is growing a little too much right now.

628
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 2: All right, Sean, who are you staying away from?

629
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 4: Well, I need a pile on Gurley real quick. I

630
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 4: think with him, it comes down to opportunity costs. Like

631
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 4: I was saying, oftentimes it's people that you know, they

632
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 4: address quarterback, wide receiver tight end the first couple round,

633
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 4: which is totally fine, but they're like, oh crap, I

634
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 4: need to get a running back, so they take Gurly,

635
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 4: but you're you're passing up on guys like Kenny Galladay,

636
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:57,479
Speaker 4: Adam Feelin, Alan Robinson, DJ Moore, those types of guys too.

637
00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 4: So the opportunity costs is what really makes Curly a

638
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 4: bust potential for me. But Raybon hit on it. You know,

639
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 4: the Falcons offense isn't great for running backs. They've produced

640
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 4: the bottom five and rush attempts inside the five each

641
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 4: of the past two seasons. Where's the rams. We're in

642
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 4: the top five, and that's really something that running backs

643
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 4: can't control. So Gurley definitely benefited from those easy scores.

644
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 4: So I think, you know, decline in rushing touchdowns, it's

645
00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 4: gonna make him appear like a bust. And I have

646
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 4: his knee as like concern five for me, and it's

647
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 4: still a huge concern. So I'm avoiding Gurley basically and

648
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 4: all my drafts. And the one guy I do want

649
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 4: to point out, I consider him a bust based solely

650
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 4: on opportunity costs, and that's JK. Dobbins. So I did

651
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 4: my running back upside chart, and you know, I do

652
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 4: like his upside obviously, I consider him the twenty twenty

653
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 4: one starter, but I think people are kind of just

654
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 4: assuming he has a good chance of leap frogging mark

655
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 4: Ingram this year when he's healthy, and I just don't

656
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 4: see it. He's probably gonna need mark Ingram to go

657
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 4: down to really, you know, become a fantasy play. And

658
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 4: even then, I think people forget that Lamar Jackson is

659
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 4: their best runner. So that's that's a lot of running

660
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 4: back usage already going to Lamar Jackson, and then you

661
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 4: still have Justice Hill. Even Devin Duverney could have, you know,

662
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 4: like a past catching back hybrid role, and Gus Edwards,

663
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 4: you know, would would take some goal line scores away.

664
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 4: So I think JK. Dobbins his upsides even limited basically

665
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 4: to the mark Ingram role and so a low end

666
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 4: RB two. So in that range, I know you love

667
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 4: cam Akers. I'm starting to like him even more. You

668
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 4: could take a guy like Cam Akers, who I think

669
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 4: is probably the week one starter. So's it's one of

670
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:40,959
Speaker 4: those things where you know, RB thirty, you're probably investing

671
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 4: too much draft capital, and a guy that probably needs

672
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:44,959
Speaker 4: an injury to really see your lineup. So that's why

673
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 4: I call Dobbin's a bust, even though I do like

674
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 4: his long term potential. I think next year he'll be

675
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 4: a solid RB two with RB one upside, but I

676
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 4: just don't see happening this year.

677
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 2: All right, one guy, I want to mention and Sega,

678
00:32:57,960 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 2: I want to get your thoughts on this because I've

679
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 2: I've talked about him with Raymond before, someone that I

680
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 2: wouldn't say he's he's going to be a bus but

681
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 2: I think he has underappreciated. Downside risk is Nick Chubb

682
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,440
Speaker 2: because Kareem Hunt. I don't want to say that he's

683
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 2: like clearly the best running back on his team, but

684
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 2: like there's a non zero chance that he actually is

685
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 2: the best running back on his team. He's certainly better

686
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:26,239
Speaker 2: as a receiver, and he might be close enough as

687
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 2: a runner to where you could look at the two

688
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 2: of them and say, you know what, maybe this should

689
00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 2: be a little bit more of a split backfield between

690
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 2: the two. And with a new head coach coming in,

691
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 2: there are some risk in terms of just the way

692
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 2: that that offense is going to translate from Minnesota to Cleveland,

693
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 2: So maybe that offense won't be as good as people

694
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 2: are expecting it to be. And then also there's the

695
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 2: risk of not knowing how the usage is going to

696
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 2: be split up because we haven't seen Kevin Stefanski deploy

697
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 2: these running backs before. So I look at Chubb and

698
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 2: I totally respect the talent that he has, and I

699
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 2: see the upside and imagine that he could be a

700
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 2: top five back if everything goes right. But I could

701
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 2: also see how Kareem Hunt actually just takes way more

702
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,480
Speaker 2: of the workload than anyone might imagine at this point.

703
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 5: That's totally fair.

704
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 6: I think that everything he said is the legitimate concerns

705
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 6: for Chubb. And in some ways, whether you take Chubb

706
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 6: or Kenyan Drake, I mean again, Chris would be on

707
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 6: your shoulder saying just take Austin Eckler. Just take Austin Eckler.

708
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:32,680
Speaker 6: He's in that mix there. Josh Jacobs is in that

709
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 6: mix there around the one two turn. So I think,

710
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:38,759
Speaker 6: to add on to what you said, they didn't have

711
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 6: Kaream Hunt for the offseason. He had a hernia surgery.

712
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 6: He was only entering the season halfway through, so we

713
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,280
Speaker 6: don't know how integrated he could be into the offense

714
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 6: with a more time, more ramp up. The organizations obviously

715
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:55,840
Speaker 6: committed to him. He's a very good running back. Chubb's

716
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 6: numbers dropped off significantly when Hunt was there, and Chubb's

717
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 6: more of a higher floor, lower ceiling play than some

718
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 6: of those other running backs around that time. It's scoring

719
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:06,439
Speaker 6: systems important too, by the way. I mean we won't

720
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 6: talk about that much, but point five PPR old school

721
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 6: standard scoring.

722
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 5: Chubb's better.

723
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:16,359
Speaker 6: The good side of Chubb, the pro side, half full

724
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 6: glass water is this is a running back offense, the

725
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 6: Stefanski offense. And he was a fifteen hundred yard rusher

726
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 6: in an offense that was bumbling its way through the

727
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,719
Speaker 6: dark last year. So what could Chubb do in an

728
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 6: offense that's operating efficiently? It was play calls that are

729
00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 6: efficient with this, you know, an ethos not to mention

730
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 6: that they added Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin and so

731
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 6: the tackle play is going to be boosted way up.

732
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 6: So I think you can make the pros and concert Chubb.

733
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 6: But I think you're right. Really, I think what people

734
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 6: should take on what you said is target Kareem Hunt

735
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 6: around the fifth, sixth round if you don't have your

736
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 6: second running back, maybe even if you do, because there's

737
00:35:58,080 --> 00:35:58,960
Speaker 6: a lot of upside there.

738
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:03,280
Speaker 3: An interesting take on this. I actually think that Kareem

739
00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 3: Hunt has more bust potential at his ADP than Nick

740
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 3: Chubb because the one thing about Kareem Hunt is that

741
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:14,399
Speaker 3: everyone says, hey, you know, Kareem there's a new coach

742
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 3: and Staffkareem Hunt could used differently. But let's remember Kareem

743
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:19,759
Speaker 3: Hunt came back last year. This was a guy who

744
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 3: was a star running back in in Kansas City. He

745
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 3: comes back and they essentially use him as a glorified

746
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 3: slot receiver. Barely give him, you know, any carries in

747
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 3: the backfield because Nick Chubb is that good. Then the

748
00:36:34,520 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 3: offseason comes along. You know, we hear there there is

749
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 3: a quote you know about Hunt about how you know,

750
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 3: I just have to accept the fact that I'm the

751
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 3: number two guy, Like I'm not the guy here. Nick

752
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 3: Chubb is really good. And I kind of agree with Sig.

753
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 3: I think, you know, this is a this is a

754
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:53,200
Speaker 3: running back offense. But let's remember, you know, Kevin Stefanski

755
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 3: came to Minnesota, and you know, Dalvin Cook was a

756
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:57,479
Speaker 3: guy that had been a high volume guy but hadn't

757
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 3: stayed healthy. You know, a lot of people were really

758
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:02,840
Speaker 3: high on Alexander Madison because you know thought. You know,

759
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 3: even with Cook healthy, maybe you know Madison's factors in

760
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 3: you know more than we think. But he used Cook

761
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 3: to the wheels fell off, and I think he could

762
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 3: actually do the same for Chubb. I think Chubb could

763
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 3: improve in the pass game. And at the point where

764
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 3: Kareem Hunt is going, we're kind of baking in the

765
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 3: fact that he is going to remain in that high,

766
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 3: high volume slot like receiver or just receiver role, pass

767
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,279
Speaker 3: catching role out of the backfield, you know, lining up

768
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 3: in the slot, doing a little bit of that. And

769
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 3: this is a new coaching staff that didn't use their backs,

770
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 3: and you know in that it doesn't use their backs

771
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 3: in that way necessarily. Now they may start because they

772
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:43,719
Speaker 3: have a player like Hunt, but like the fifth round

773
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:45,839
Speaker 3: is you know where he goes a lot of the time,

774
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 3: the fifth round, sometimes the sixth. That's really early for

775
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:52,040
Speaker 3: a guy that's behind a guy that's going to get

776
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 3: twenty touches a game. So I think Kareem Hunt actually

777
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 3: has more bust potential because you can you can get

778
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:01,719
Speaker 3: locked in running in those first couple of rounds and

779
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 3: just be drafting wide receivers where Hunt is going, and

780
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 3: you're gonna get some really good wide receivers, whereas Hunt

781
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 3: might be a guy that's like fringe flex value a

782
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 3: lot of weeks and not really the ceiling that you

783
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 3: want unless Chubb gets hurt. Chubb has been pretty durable,

784
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 3: you know, so far in his career. So I'm just

785
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 3: saying I actually think a Hunt is a bigger bus candidate.

786
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 2: All right, let's get to these wide receivers, sig. Yeah,

787
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 2: there are a lot of wide receivers who could be

788
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 2: fantasy viable in this year's draft. It feels like a

789
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 2: very deep position, but that, you know, could also mean

790
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 2: there are tons of guys who might disappoint. Who are

791
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 2: some guys you just want to stay away from.

792
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:45,800
Speaker 6: Just the simple map is that guys that will disappoint

793
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 6: most likely are the guys that go earlier, not because

794
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 6: they disappoint necessarily, but because they don't provide a big

795
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 6: advantage over the wide receivers that are going later than them.

796
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:57,600
Speaker 6: You know, if the second round wide receiver performs like

797
00:38:57,640 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 6: a guy that was going in the fourth or fifth,

798
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:01,360
Speaker 6: which can be because the guys in the fourth or

799
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 6: fifth have a lot of upside, which they do, but

800
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 6: it'd also be downside so two of the wide receivers

801
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,080
Speaker 6: I'm avoiding in the second round. And again this is

802
00:39:08,120 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 6: why the second round ends up being a quarterback tight

803
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 6: end round for me, especially if I'm picking in the

804
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 6: second half of the round. DeAndre Hopkins, and we already

805
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,400
Speaker 6: touched on this during the show. He's not a big

806
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 6: downfield receiver. One hundred and fifty targets is probably very optimistic.

807
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:23,680
Speaker 6: That's what he was getting as a floor with Deshaun Watson.

808
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 6: There's establishing chemistry. Kyler Murray is just a different kind

809
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:30,439
Speaker 6: of quarterback than Deshaun Watson, and I think that also,

810
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:33,839
Speaker 6: Arizona established themselves as a pretty good run offense last

811
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 6: year and will be even better with Kenny and Drake

812
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 6: and Chase Edmonds hopefully staying healthy. So I see no

813
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,320
Speaker 6: way for Hopkins to get the even close to the

814
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 6: targets he got in Houston, and he's not going to

815
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,240
Speaker 6: be a big play downfield receiver. And then Chris Godwin,

816
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,120
Speaker 6: and again this has already come up. Love these themes

817
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 6: that keep coming up. You're just not going to have

818
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 6: these frenetic game scripts that Jameis Winston created, like setting

819
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 6: the house on fire and putting it out, it's just

820
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 6: not going to happen, and Godwin benefited from that part

821
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 6: of the game more than Evans. Statistically, the Tampa offense

822
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 6: gonna have more two tight end sets, so he's not

823
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:07,360
Speaker 6: going to be in the slot as much. So I

824
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 6: just think again ponying up a second round pick for

825
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 6: that too.

826
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:14,279
Speaker 2: Rich Sean, who are you staying away from?

827
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:18,320
Speaker 4: So for me, the first guy is Alan Robinson. I

828
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 4: still think he's one of the most talented receivers in

829
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:23,600
Speaker 4: the game. Should see a ton of targets. We still

830
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 4: don't know who his starting quarterback is, either Nick Foles

831
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 4: or Mitch Trubisky, and I don't know if that matters,

832
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 4: but you know, his ninety eight reception eleven and fifty

833
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 4: yard seven touchdown season last year is his ceiling, and

834
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 4: which is a great season. He finishes the wide receiver eleven.

835
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 4: But he's being drafted as the wide receiver nine. So

836
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,520
Speaker 4: that's why I'm just not getting him. There's always someone

837
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 4: in the draft that values him way more than I do.

838
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 4: And you know, last year he benefited from a lot

839
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 4: of people being out. You know, Taylor Gabriel missed seven games,

840
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 4: Anthony Miller, he was dealing with an ankle injury to

841
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:56,480
Speaker 4: begin the season. I don't think he was right until

842
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,840
Speaker 4: say week ten, Trey Burton and Adam Shaheen both missed eight.

843
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 4: So they're running out j. P Holtz and Jessper Horse

844
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 4: at at tight end. I mean, he had very little

845
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 4: competition for target, so I think that's why we saw

846
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 4: his ceiling last year. You know, they bring in Ted

847
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 4: Getting to replace Taylor Gabriel Jimmy Graham. Even though we

848
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:17,479
Speaker 4: love bashing him on here, he's well above JP Holtz

849
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:20,280
Speaker 4: and Jesper Horse and then second round pick and Cole Comet.

850
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:23,319
Speaker 4: So I think he just has improved weapons around him,

851
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:25,400
Speaker 4: if you want to call him weapons. You know, an

852
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 4: eighty five catch, eleven hundred receiving yards and six point

853
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 4: five touchdowns is a fair projection for him. So he's

854
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:34,040
Speaker 4: wide receiver sixteen. I think that's that's a fair time

855
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 4: to take him. So I'm just not getting him inside

856
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:39,160
Speaker 4: the top ten. And the other guy is Keenan Allen.

857
00:41:39,520 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 4: I mean we already hit on it, but the Chargers

858
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 4: offense will be a little more conservative, less yards to

859
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:46,560
Speaker 4: go around, but they still have Austinnickler, they still have

860
00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 4: Mike Williams. They still have Hunter Henry. So a guy

861
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:51,759
Speaker 4: like Keenan Allen that banks on volume is just going

862
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 4: to get less volume. It's just it's fat, and he's

863
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:57,320
Speaker 4: he's never going to really make it up with touchdown production.

864
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 4: You know, his his career high is eight his rookie seat,

865
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 4: and ever since then he's right right around six touchdowns.

866
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:06,560
Speaker 4: So I mean I'm projecting closer to five. So in

867
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 4: that range, I mean I have him ranked as the

868
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 4: wide receiver twenty three. But in that range, I rather

869
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 4: take flyers on you know, a DK Metcalf, DJ Shark

870
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 4: or Terry McLaurin. There's just more upside there, and I

871
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 4: think their floor is just as safe as Keenan Allen.

872
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:22,440
Speaker 4: So again, this is more of an opportunity cost situation

873
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 4: where at that range, I'd rather go with the upside

874
00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:28,279
Speaker 4: than just you know, the proven veteran like Allen. So

875
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 4: that's why that's why I'm concerning a bus. I just

876
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 4: think it's hard for him to match the numbers we

877
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:33,360
Speaker 4: used to on.

878
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 2: I'm with you on both of those guys, Ravon, who

879
00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 2: are the two that you are looking to fade.

880
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 3: It's tough because I really like all of the wide

881
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:43,800
Speaker 3: receivers pretty much across the board, you know, in the

882
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:46,080
Speaker 3: in the top thirty six, I think the guy that

883
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 3: I think Robinson is right there at the top of

884
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 3: the wishes because I agree with Sean, I think it's

885
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 3: going to be tough for him to really do better

886
00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 3: than what he did wlast season, and you're paying top

887
00:42:55,560 --> 00:43:00,359
Speaker 3: costs for him, like Alan Robinson may get somewhere close

888
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:03,479
Speaker 3: to that those numbers again, but there's really no room

889
00:43:03,560 --> 00:43:06,919
Speaker 3: for him to beat his cost Like now you're talking

890
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:09,720
Speaker 3: about him having to outproduce guys like you know, Julio

891
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 3: Jones or DeAndre Hopkins to really pay off because you're

892
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 3: drafting him as a top ten receiver. Another guy who

893
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 3: I consider in that same category, and it's probably gonna

894
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 3: be a little more controversial, but Amari Cooper, there's a

895
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 3: huge range of outcomes with him. You know, he's entering

896
00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:32,920
Speaker 3: you know, the age where wide receivers usually have their

897
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:35,319
Speaker 3: best season. You know, he's twenty six, so he could

898
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 3: have a monster year, but he's been inconsistent throughout his career.

899
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:42,400
Speaker 3: And when I'm taking a receiver in the top twelve,

900
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:46,120
Speaker 3: I want a guy who I can count on week

901
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:48,319
Speaker 3: in week out to put up consistent numbers, even if

902
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:50,160
Speaker 3: they're not always going to give me the monster Tyreek

903
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 3: Hill games. I want, you know, double digit points at least.

904
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:58,200
Speaker 3: And Amari Cooper just had a you know, even with

905
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 3: Dak throwing for nearly five thousand yards last year, which

906
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 3: by the way, you know that could be that's not

907
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:06,560
Speaker 3: necessarily something that Dak's gonna beat this year, Like I

908
00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 3: have a Dak MVP ticket, but like, let's face it,

909
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:12,319
Speaker 3: like you know, forty nine hundred yards and all those

910
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 3: in all those touchdowns, that's that's something that he's gonna

911
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:19,799
Speaker 3: It's tough to replicate. But Amari Cooper two targets, one catch,

912
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 3: three yards against the Jets, three catches for thirty eight

913
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 3: yards on eight targets against Detroit. The next week, two targets,

914
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 3: no catches against the Pats. He kind of expect that one.

915
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 3: But another ugly stat line in the Fantasy playoffs, you know,

916
00:44:33,760 --> 00:44:38,120
Speaker 3: Week fifteen against the Rams, two targets, one catch, nineteen yards.

917
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:40,520
Speaker 3: The next week he gets twelve targets against Philly. Every

918
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 3: wide receiver eats against Philly. Twelve targets Amari Cooper gets

919
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 3: from Dak Prescott and he turns him into four targets,

920
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:50,879
Speaker 3: four catches for twenty four yards. He's just too inconsistent

921
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:54,800
Speaker 3: for me to really own a lot of at that price.

922
00:44:54,960 --> 00:44:56,840
Speaker 3: And we've kind of seen this as a theme with

923
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:59,839
Speaker 3: him throughout his career. Maybe it's due to injuries, had

924
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 3: of trouble. He's played through a lot of injuries, so

925
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:04,719
Speaker 3: give him credit, but he's had trouble in the red

926
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:06,360
Speaker 3: zone a lot of times. He went through that stretch

927
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:08,880
Speaker 3: where he was dropping everything in the red zone. He

928
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:11,719
Speaker 3: went through that weird half season in Oakland before he

929
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:15,319
Speaker 3: came to Dallas when he just wasn't a good receiver, uh,

930
00:45:15,480 --> 00:45:18,480
Speaker 3: you know, randomly for a half season. So he if

931
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 3: I'm looking at guy, and I'm nitpicking here because again

932
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:22,799
Speaker 3: I think the value is that receiver once you get

933
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:25,319
Speaker 3: past the second round. But a Mari is another one

934
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 3: of those guys going on the high end, like Alan Robinson,

935
00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:30,120
Speaker 3: that he's going to really have to to do a

936
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:33,440
Speaker 3: lot and be a lot more consistent to pay off

937
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 3: his cost. There's a lot of downside risk and there's

938
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:38,320
Speaker 3: even an outside shot. And I don't think this is

939
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:40,479
Speaker 3: true of any of the other receivers going in this range.

940
00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 3: But there's an outside shot that Amari Cooper is the

941
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 3: third best receiver on his team this year, or the third,

942
00:45:49,719 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 3: you know, the number three in terms of targets, because

943
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:55,399
Speaker 3: you know, Michael Gallup and Cooper kind of replicated each

944
00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:57,960
Speaker 3: other's numbers. They weren't really far off in terms of

945
00:45:58,000 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 3: the productivity last year. Seedee Lamb could just be a

946
00:46:01,719 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 3: special guy, like you know, he could be a guy

947
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 3: that just bursts on a scene from the jump, and

948
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:13,360
Speaker 3: that will only exacerbate Cooper's inconsistency. So you know, if

949
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 3: I'm nitpicking, I see some some downside risks and some

950
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:17,360
Speaker 3: red flags with Marvin.

951
00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 2: Okay, you talked a long time for just nitpicking a

952
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:24,719
Speaker 2: guy and Ray bamb this is a horrible take. This

953
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 2: is a horrible take. Maury Cooper is going to crush

954
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:31,960
Speaker 2: this year. That Dallas offense is going to be very good.

955
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 2: We're going to see Cooper line up more in the

956
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 2: slot than anyone expects because that's actually the natural place

957
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 2: for him to be given that Gallup and Lamb are

958
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 2: the two guys around him. Cooper in the slot is

959
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:48,160
Speaker 2: going to have really easy matchups, maybe the easiest matchups

960
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:51,320
Speaker 2: he's had in his career. He has the best quarterback

961
00:46:51,400 --> 00:46:54,000
Speaker 2: of his career throwing to him, the best play caller,

962
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 2: and the best head coach that he's ever had, and

963
00:46:56,920 --> 00:47:00,800
Speaker 2: he's in five years had four thousand yard seat Like,

964
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 2: what more do you want this guy to have done

965
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 2: besides the consistency thing, which I'm not getting just like

966
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:09,239
Speaker 2: ballplay that I admit that that is big, But what

967
00:47:09,480 --> 00:47:12,760
Speaker 2: happens if he actually becomes just a little more consistent

968
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:15,680
Speaker 2: And it's not hard to imagine that happening given the

969
00:47:15,719 --> 00:47:19,120
Speaker 2: circumstances around him. Now, Amari Cooper is going to smash

970
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 2: this year. And this is going to sound like a

971
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 2: horrible take that said, I know, I know you were nitpicking.

972
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 2: I know, I know, I know you're in it.

973
00:47:25,280 --> 00:47:26,480
Speaker 3: Well, no, I just want to point out and this

974
00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 3: is like something you know, for the listeners, when we're

975
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:31,800
Speaker 3: talking about busts, it's all about range of outcomes. Like

976
00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 3: the one of the first things I said was that

977
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:35,279
Speaker 3: a MARII Cooper has a wide range of outcomes. He

978
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 3: could absolutely smash this year. I'm not denying that. But

979
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:42,320
Speaker 3: what is a true bust. A true bust generally is

980
00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:45,359
Speaker 3: going to be someone something that we don't see coming right,

981
00:47:45,680 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 3: It's going to be something where we're only focused on

982
00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:51,839
Speaker 3: one side of that range of outcomes, and we kind

983
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 3: of talk ourselves into that one side and forget that

984
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 3: there's this other percentage chance he just is inconsistent or

985
00:47:58,920 --> 00:48:01,279
Speaker 3: that Gallup is you know, kind of equal to him,

986
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 3: and Ceedee Lamb is as good as advertised, and he's

987
00:48:04,280 --> 00:48:07,320
Speaker 3: kind of like in the mix of this triangle and

988
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 3: he's the one going in the top ten. I'm just

989
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 3: pointing out that there's downside risk with taking Amari as

990
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:14,480
Speaker 3: a top ten receives.

991
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 2: Okay, two guys I want to touch on quickly on

992
00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 2: the way to talking about the tight ends. I am

993
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:24,759
Speaker 2: pessimistic about these guys, although I acknowledge that they could

994
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:27,279
Speaker 2: explode this year, and what I'm about to say could

995
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:30,799
Speaker 2: look like a horrible take. But DK Metcalf and AJ

996
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:35,239
Speaker 2: Brown two guys who had fantastic rookie seasons last year,

997
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:38,719
Speaker 2: but both of whom play in very run focused offenses,

998
00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:41,880
Speaker 2: and if they don't get much more volume than they

999
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:45,279
Speaker 2: had last year, and if they experience any regression and efficiency,

1000
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:49,040
Speaker 2: both of them could really underwhelm. Considering that they are

1001
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 2: going as top twenty four wide receivers. So they are

1002
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:55,719
Speaker 2: guys who have fantastic physical traits, but I'm just a

1003
00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:58,520
Speaker 2: little pessimistic about what we see out of them this year.

1004
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:00,560
Speaker 2: They both if things break right, it could be top

1005
00:49:00,600 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 2: ten receivers, but I think they also have underappreciated downside

1006
00:49:05,840 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 2: risk considering their ADPs. Sig, Let's get to the tight ends.

1007
00:49:09,960 --> 00:49:12,399
Speaker 2: Who are some of the guys you're a little pessimistic about.

1008
00:49:13,120 --> 00:49:16,399
Speaker 6: There's a no man's land between the top four tight

1009
00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 6: ends and your favorite tight ends outside of the top ten.

1010
00:49:19,840 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 6: Everyone's gonna have different favorites, so you could see like

1011
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:26,560
Speaker 6: a shooting gallery. Just patuone, put him up, shoot him down.

1012
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,480
Speaker 6: The two that I will highlight one is Darren Waller,

1013
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 6: and it's just because how much of his production was

1014
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:36,960
Speaker 6: because the Raiders didn't have anything a wide receiver, and

1015
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 6: how much of is a wonderful story, a great breakout season.

1016
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 5: He didn't have much involvement in the red zone.

1017
00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:45,719
Speaker 6: They got Jason Witten, they foster from a rose back,

1018
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:47,680
Speaker 6: so that doesn't look like it's going to change. So

1019
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,200
Speaker 6: there's just a very thin margin of air here when

1020
00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:52,319
Speaker 6: you're taking a tight end at number five or number six.

1021
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:55,520
Speaker 6: The other one is Hunter Henry. Again, it's just that

1022
00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:58,840
Speaker 6: idea of the Chargers offense. I just don't see fantasy

1023
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:01,040
Speaker 6: overachievers in the past coming out.

1024
00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 5: Of the Chargers offense.

1025
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:02,359
Speaker 3: This year.

1026
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:06,200
Speaker 6: Charles Clay was the top targeted player I think one

1027
00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:08,840
Speaker 6: year with Tyrod Taylor and got a healthy amount of

1028
00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 6: targets with Tyrod Taylor.

1029
00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:13,879
Speaker 5: So Hunter Henry could still be okay this year.

1030
00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:17,000
Speaker 6: But again, if you're not waiting for a late round

1031
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 6: tight end, you either want someone to gives you a

1032
00:50:18,440 --> 00:50:21,319
Speaker 6: distinct advantage like the top four, and I just don't

1033
00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:22,239
Speaker 6: know I Henry's going to do.

1034
00:50:22,239 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 2: That, all right, Jean, Who are the tight ends you

1035
00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:25,640
Speaker 2: are looking to stay away from?

1036
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:29,000
Speaker 4: Well, I like Evan Ingram as a player, but he

1037
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 4: kind of sticks out to me as a guy that

1038
00:50:30,640 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 4: I'm typically avoiding just because of where he's going in

1039
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:35,640
Speaker 4: the draft. I typically like, if I don't get one

1040
00:50:35,640 --> 00:50:38,800
Speaker 4: of the elite tight ends, I tend to wait. And

1041
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:41,640
Speaker 4: he's one of those guys that does have injury history

1042
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:44,840
Speaker 4: that a bit worrisome, especially if you're using you know,

1043
00:50:44,960 --> 00:50:48,319
Speaker 4: six round pick and a guy like Ingram you kind

1044
00:50:48,360 --> 00:50:50,200
Speaker 4: of want him to be, you know, a guy that

1045
00:50:50,239 --> 00:50:52,480
Speaker 4: can play through injury. Plus you know that all the

1046
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:55,400
Speaker 4: weapons they have, they're a Stling Shepherd, Golden Tate, Darius Slayton,

1047
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:58,400
Speaker 4: even Sekwon Barkley. It's hard to see how you know

1048
00:50:58,520 --> 00:51:02,320
Speaker 4: he'll be able to stay consistent with everyone healthy. But

1049
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 4: the one guy I really wanted to focus on was

1050
00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:07,840
Speaker 4: Austin Hooper, who you know, I had the most shares

1051
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:10,480
Speaker 4: of last year, and he goes he goes in a

1052
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:13,480
Speaker 4: range where it's kind of ironic because I say, this

1053
00:51:13,640 --> 00:51:15,359
Speaker 4: is kind of the range where you want to get

1054
00:51:15,400 --> 00:51:18,040
Speaker 4: an Austin Hooper Mark Andrews or Darren Waller from last year.

1055
00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:21,080
Speaker 4: And I'm telling you not to draft Austin Hooper, but

1056
00:51:22,040 --> 00:51:23,959
Speaker 4: I mean it has to do with you know, last

1057
00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:27,000
Speaker 4: year I was drafting him because of Dirk Cutter's scheme

1058
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 4: typically produces tight end ones, and I think, if if

1059
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:32,560
Speaker 4: you want this year's Austin Hooper, just take Hayden Hurst.

1060
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 4: But hey, Austin Hooper's upset is severely limited this year. There,

1061
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 4: you know we mentioned Kevin's Kevin Sefanci's offense is gonna

1062
00:51:41,120 --> 00:51:44,479
Speaker 4: be you know, two tight ends set heavy. He's gonna

1063
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:48,000
Speaker 4: have to compete with Odell Jarvis. Landry even Kaream hunt

1064
00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:50,320
Speaker 4: for targets, so I just think his upside is capped.

1065
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:53,239
Speaker 4: So in this range, you're really just wanting to go

1066
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:56,600
Speaker 4: for a league winning pick like a Noah Fant, Mike Joseki,

1067
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:59,839
Speaker 4: t J Hawkinson, even Dallas Godder. So just locking in Austin,

1068
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:02,520
Speaker 4: I think you're gonna regret it. And that's that's where

1069
00:52:02,560 --> 00:52:04,719
Speaker 4: I consider him a bust, even though he's going later.

1070
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:07,279
Speaker 4: Is you're kind of just kind of being forced to

1071
00:52:07,360 --> 00:52:09,239
Speaker 4: start him every week, and it's gonna it's gonna cap

1072
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:12,000
Speaker 4: your upside of it. So that's why I'm avoiding Hooper

1073
00:52:12,040 --> 00:52:14,279
Speaker 4: and basically all my drafts this year when I you know,

1074
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:16,840
Speaker 4: specifically went out of my way to target him in

1075
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:18,960
Speaker 4: most of my legs. It's kind of a flipped scenario

1076
00:52:19,000 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 4: this year for me on Hooper.

1077
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:22,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, Sean, I'm with you on Hooper. I have more

1078
00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:26,839
Speaker 2: as a like lower tight end two than a low

1079
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 2: tight end one. So someone I'm really looking to avoid

1080
00:52:30,640 --> 00:52:32,440
Speaker 2: Raybond a tight end or two.

1081
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:37,759
Speaker 3: You do not like everybody going late, like everybody after

1082
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:42,080
Speaker 3: that top seven, because so you know, earlier I kind

1083
00:52:42,080 --> 00:52:44,600
Speaker 3: of said that, you know, bust generally early round you

1084
00:52:44,680 --> 00:52:46,759
Speaker 3: know when you're talking about starter value, but I do

1085
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:49,040
Speaker 3: think this is an exception, and it's the late round

1086
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:52,760
Speaker 3: tight ends. And the reason is, as Sig mentioned, everyone

1087
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 3: you can like them all. There's positives about all of them,

1088
00:52:55,800 --> 00:52:58,560
Speaker 3: but that's the issue. I don't know which one to choose.

1089
00:52:58,880 --> 00:53:01,360
Speaker 3: And it's not like quarter which is the most predictable

1090
00:53:01,440 --> 00:53:05,200
Speaker 3: position where you know, a combination of using a quarterbacks

1091
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:07,879
Speaker 3: pass data and in the matchup in the Vegas lines,

1092
00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:10,400
Speaker 3: you can really come to a very solid, you know,

1093
00:53:10,600 --> 00:53:13,839
Speaker 3: kind of streaming situation and beat cycling guys in and out.

1094
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 3: It's a lot harder to kind of get tight end

1095
00:53:17,200 --> 00:53:20,200
Speaker 3: right week in and week out, and it's gonna be

1096
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:22,359
Speaker 3: a very hard to kind of pick the right one

1097
00:53:22,640 --> 00:53:25,320
Speaker 3: because remember zach Ertz, even if people are kind of

1098
00:53:25,320 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 3: bored with him going as a tight end four, his

1099
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:29,520
Speaker 3: floor is still probably the tight end four or tight

1100
00:53:29,600 --> 00:53:32,040
Speaker 3: end five, something like that. Darren Waller, even though I

1101
00:53:32,080 --> 00:53:34,760
Speaker 3: expect him to take a step back he had eleven

1102
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:37,360
Speaker 3: hundred you know yards last year, he still may be

1103
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:40,120
Speaker 3: far enough ahead of these guys that are gonna be

1104
00:53:40,160 --> 00:53:43,080
Speaker 3: you know, eight through twelve that you're you're gonna be

1105
00:53:43,120 --> 00:53:45,239
Speaker 3: behind the eight ball at tight end. If you miss

1106
00:53:45,280 --> 00:53:47,440
Speaker 3: out on a top four guy, I think even if

1107
00:53:47,480 --> 00:53:48,880
Speaker 3: you miss out on a second tier guy, because at

1108
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:51,560
Speaker 3: weast those guys Higbee, Waller, Ingram have that upside to

1109
00:53:51,640 --> 00:53:54,399
Speaker 3: get you those five catches, you know, those eighty ninety

1110
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:57,719
Speaker 3: yard one hundred yard games, whereas the guys after them,

1111
00:53:57,960 --> 00:53:59,920
Speaker 3: they're all kind of like three and a half touches

1112
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:02,440
Speaker 3: per game guys. And I like all of them. I

1113
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 3: can make a case for all of them, but I

1114
00:54:03,600 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 3: don't know which one, which means it doesn't do me

1115
00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:08,839
Speaker 3: any good. And I don't feel as confident streaming because

1116
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:12,000
Speaker 3: there's just such a high variance with the consistency at

1117
00:54:12,040 --> 00:54:13,840
Speaker 3: the position on a week to week basis. Outside of

1118
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:15,919
Speaker 3: the week guys sick.

1119
00:54:16,040 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 2: I have one final tight end question I want to

1120
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:21,040
Speaker 2: ask you here, and you will be the final arbiter

1121
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:25,239
Speaker 2: on this. Two quarterbacks that we've talked about who could

1122
00:54:25,440 --> 00:54:31,720
Speaker 2: potentially be busted. You mentioned Kyler Murray, sean In Raybaun,

1123
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:35,360
Speaker 2: I believe both mentioned Aaron Rodgers at the tight end position.

1124
00:54:35,920 --> 00:54:40,400
Speaker 2: Which guy do you like more, Jace Sternberger or Dan Arnold?

1125
00:54:41,160 --> 00:54:44,440
Speaker 5: Arnold, Yeah, we love it.

1126
00:54:45,920 --> 00:54:49,120
Speaker 6: Hey, Look here's the thing, go back to the interview

1127
00:54:49,280 --> 00:54:53,279
Speaker 6: that Jay Sternberger gave this offseason. He sounds like he's

1128
00:54:53,360 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 6: trying to make his stepdad be nice to him for

1129
00:54:57,080 --> 00:55:01,319
Speaker 6: the first time. I mean, he's saying, Hey, I'm working hard.

1130
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:04,359
Speaker 6: I hope Aaron sees that he gives me. Sometimes he'll

1131
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:07,200
Speaker 6: acknowledge me as a nickname for me. I'm afraid that

1132
00:55:07,440 --> 00:55:09,040
Speaker 6: he's gonna be mad at me for even saying this.

1133
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:12,479
Speaker 6: And see when he sees this interview. You know, Aaron

1134
00:55:12,560 --> 00:55:14,840
Speaker 6: Rodgers is tough to get into a circle trust. Bobby

1135
00:55:14,920 --> 00:55:18,720
Speaker 6: Tanyan is actually the one that is in Roger's circle trust.

1136
00:55:18,800 --> 00:55:21,040
Speaker 6: And you're not hearing any reports out of the Packers'

1137
00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:24,279
Speaker 6: training camp telling you that you should dismiss Tanyan for

1138
00:55:24,360 --> 00:55:27,080
Speaker 6: Sternberger because and Tanian is quite athletic, and you know

1139
00:55:27,200 --> 00:55:32,080
Speaker 6: he's he's got receiving skills. But Arnold is being totally overlooked,

1140
00:55:32,440 --> 00:55:35,200
Speaker 6: totally totally overlooked. Yeah, no're gonna We're gonna have a

1141
00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 6: lot of fun.

1142
00:55:35,560 --> 00:55:36,000
Speaker 5: With this, Chris.

1143
00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:38,439
Speaker 6: This is gonna be like playing the encore that makes

1144
00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:41,360
Speaker 6: everybody get the lighter out, you know, because Arnold was

1145
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:43,839
Speaker 6: added and the week he was added, he scored right

1146
00:55:44,080 --> 00:55:46,200
Speaker 6: the week he was added, and he scored on this

1147
00:55:46,280 --> 00:55:48,560
Speaker 6: sprawling play in the end zone. And Kyler Murray has

1148
00:55:48,600 --> 00:55:52,239
Speaker 6: said I've never had anybody like him before. Then in

1149
00:55:52,360 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 6: Week seventeen, and we should never overlook Week seventeen, he

1150
00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:58,000
Speaker 6: had a big game when he got an opportunity after

1151
00:55:58,080 --> 00:55:59,160
Speaker 6: joining the team in December.

1152
00:55:59,360 --> 00:56:00,200
Speaker 5: He had big games.

1153
00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:03,320
Speaker 6: Now, granted they had some shortage of wide receiver, but

1154
00:56:03,960 --> 00:56:08,360
Speaker 6: their red zone offense was holding them back last year terribly.

1155
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 5: Dan Arnold is the answer to that. You remember Jason Morrow.

1156
00:56:11,840 --> 00:56:13,840
Speaker 6: I mean, you can have a tight end in this

1157
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:17,040
Speaker 6: offense that basically plays big wide receiver and Arnold is

1158
00:56:17,080 --> 00:56:19,799
Speaker 6: a former wide receiver. So I drafts aren't long enough

1159
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:23,800
Speaker 6: to take him, you know, but yeah, probably you know

1160
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:26,239
Speaker 6: week two, Week three, or a matchup play or just

1161
00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:28,200
Speaker 6: someone that we should have our mind open to being

1162
00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:31,640
Speaker 6: a much bigger part of the offense. Then you'll see

1163
00:56:31,680 --> 00:56:34,800
Speaker 6: little hints and dribbles coming out of Cardinals camp or

1164
00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:37,719
Speaker 6: even the offseason, like don't sleep on Dan Arnold. Dan

1165
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:40,520
Speaker 6: Arnold could be a big part of this offense. So absolutely,

1166
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:42,400
Speaker 6: I'm fascinated by Arnold.

1167
00:56:42,760 --> 00:56:44,560
Speaker 2: This is what I get for asking the question.

1168
00:56:44,840 --> 00:56:47,160
Speaker 3: I mean, now, This is what I've been saying, Dan Arnold,

1169
00:56:47,239 --> 00:56:49,360
Speaker 3: he's not really a true tight end. He's kind of

1170
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:52,280
Speaker 3: this tight end wide receiver hybrid. They run a spread offense,

1171
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:54,600
Speaker 3: they need another you know, they need another guy to

1172
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:57,880
Speaker 3: step up, and you got DeAndre Hopkins. And so what

1173
00:56:58,000 --> 00:57:00,919
Speaker 3: that means is when you are talking about streaming, where

1174
00:57:00,920 --> 00:57:03,800
Speaker 3: you are talking about a showdown DFS player, just a

1175
00:57:03,880 --> 00:57:07,080
Speaker 3: mid priced guy in a millie maker. Look at Dan Arnold.

1176
00:57:07,160 --> 00:57:09,439
Speaker 3: If we're all high on Kyler Murray and we're taking

1177
00:57:09,520 --> 00:57:11,759
Speaker 3: him as a top five quarterback, there are gonna be

1178
00:57:11,840 --> 00:57:15,440
Speaker 3: weeks where, you know, somebody else besides Hopkins or Christian

1179
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:17,480
Speaker 3: kirk go Off. I don't know if he's gonna be

1180
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:19,680
Speaker 3: Larry at this stage. Maybe in week one or two,

1181
00:57:19,840 --> 00:57:23,000
Speaker 3: but you know, as a season progresses, probably not. He's

1182
00:57:23,040 --> 00:57:25,520
Speaker 3: a totally different player than Max Williams. So Max Williams

1183
00:57:25,520 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 3: will be in on some of the big, you know,

1184
00:57:27,480 --> 00:57:29,080
Speaker 3: heavy person now and they need to pick up a

1185
00:57:29,160 --> 00:57:31,560
Speaker 3: yard or two or but but Dan Arnold is when

1186
00:57:31,800 --> 00:57:33,640
Speaker 3: when they spread the offense and they're in their base,

1187
00:57:34,120 --> 00:57:36,960
Speaker 3: Arnold is going to play and he's gonna have one

1188
00:57:36,960 --> 00:57:39,760
Speaker 3: on one matchups and he can explore him, all.

1189
00:57:39,720 --> 00:57:42,120
Speaker 2: Right, sick. What do you guys have going on at football?

1190
00:57:42,160 --> 00:57:42,360
Speaker 5: Guys?

1191
00:57:43,000 --> 00:57:45,800
Speaker 6: Yeah, just all those final preparations for drafts. I know

1192
00:57:45,880 --> 00:57:47,720
Speaker 6: the law of draft's been pushed back till the very

1193
00:57:47,920 --> 00:57:51,800
Speaker 6: end of the preseason. Our training camp reports. You can

1194
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:54,080
Speaker 6: check out the free rate my team will. It'll get

1195
00:57:54,120 --> 00:57:59,400
Speaker 6: great to everybody in your draft. That's fun. And I

1196
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:02,200
Speaker 6: got it a in the Apex Writers League, so I

1197
00:58:02,320 --> 00:58:04,200
Speaker 6: know that this is not gonna be my year in

1198
00:58:04,360 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 6: that league anyway. You know, just like everybody else, we're obsessing.

1199
00:58:07,720 --> 00:58:10,280
Speaker 6: It's fun to have so many brain cells devoted to

1200
00:58:10,400 --> 00:58:14,240
Speaker 6: football and play with our puzzles and think about how

1201
00:58:14,280 --> 00:58:16,680
Speaker 6: things are gonna go and have that adrenaline release when

1202
00:58:16,680 --> 00:58:19,320
Speaker 6: they really play here in a few weeks.

1203
00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:21,520
Speaker 5: It's exciting to have this community.

1204
00:58:21,560 --> 00:58:22,880
Speaker 6: It's exciting to be part of the show too, by

1205
00:58:23,000 --> 00:58:26,160
Speaker 6: you guys run an excellent ship here and I'm glad

1206
00:58:26,200 --> 00:58:28,000
Speaker 6: to be on this little one hour tour.

1207
00:58:28,440 --> 00:58:31,200
Speaker 2: All right, So it is awesome having you on the show. Everyone.

1208
00:58:31,280 --> 00:58:34,040
Speaker 2: Be sure to follow him on Twitter at Sigmund Bloom

1209
00:58:34,080 --> 00:58:36,680
Speaker 2: and check out his podcast. It's a good little podcast.

1210
00:58:36,760 --> 00:58:39,080
Speaker 2: So you've been doing it for a number of years now,

1211
00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:41,200
Speaker 2: and you know what what episode number are you?

1212
00:58:41,280 --> 00:58:43,920
Speaker 5: I don't know. If you keep tracked out, it's like

1213
00:58:44,000 --> 00:58:44,920
Speaker 5: three thousand something.

1214
00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:45,480
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1215
00:58:45,680 --> 00:58:45,840
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1216
00:58:45,880 --> 00:58:47,680
Speaker 6: The first one was recorded by putting the headset from

1217
00:58:47,720 --> 00:58:50,800
Speaker 6: the phone next to a tape recorder. We were dealing

1218
00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:55,000
Speaker 6: with ancient technology. It's fun. Honestly, the podcast scene in

1219
00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:57,640
Speaker 6: fantasy football has become so talented, and there's so many

1220
00:58:57,680 --> 00:58:59,480
Speaker 6: people doing so many good things. I'm just glad I'm

1221
00:58:59,480 --> 00:59:00,840
Speaker 6: a made man, you know, because I don't know if

1222
00:59:00,880 --> 00:59:02,120
Speaker 6: I could make it in this world.

1223
00:59:02,920 --> 00:59:06,680
Speaker 2: Yes, that's absolutely the way that I feel, as evidence

1224
00:59:06,720 --> 00:59:08,000
Speaker 2: by mind Jace Sternberg.

1225
00:59:08,840 --> 00:59:09,040
Speaker 5: Take.

1226
00:59:09,240 --> 00:59:13,920
Speaker 2: So all right, everyone, be sure to follow Seg once

1227
00:59:13,960 --> 00:59:16,400
Speaker 2: again on Twitter at Sigmund Bloom and our next NFL

1228
00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:19,840
Speaker 2: episode will break down our twenty twenty fantasy sleepers. Keep

1229
00:59:19,840 --> 00:59:21,800
Speaker 2: an eye out for that. You can follow Sean, Chris

1230
00:59:21,880 --> 00:59:24,360
Speaker 2: and me in the Action Network app at the Underscore

1231
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:27,720
Speaker 2: odds maker Chris Raybond and Matt fd Oracle. Please subscribe

1232
00:59:27,720 --> 00:59:29,600
Speaker 2: to and rate and review the show and listen and

1233
00:59:29,680 --> 00:59:50,280
Speaker 2: download on Spotify. See you again next episode. We're finished

1234
00:59:50,360 --> 00:59:50,720
Speaker 2: talking