WEBVTT - Best NFL Bets for Week 14 | Top Picks and Predictions (Ep. 612) 0:00:01.040 --> 0:00:03.559 Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.600 --> 0:00:05.760 your bets. And this is me Joey p joe Pizzapia, 0:00:06.080 --> 0:00:09.000 and this is BP NFL. The best bets for Week fourteen. 0:00:09.640 --> 0:00:11.920 Six teams are on a bye, but that's okay. We 0:00:12.000 --> 0:00:14.160 still got plenty of things that we like this week, 0:00:14.200 --> 0:00:16.640 and of course Terrell Furman Junior and the Undertaker Andrew 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:19.000 Erickson are here to help me break them all down 0:00:19.079 --> 0:00:22.239 for you. And the guys once again holding hands on 0:00:22.280 --> 0:00:24.079 a lot of stuff, so you know what that means. 0:00:24.120 --> 0:00:28.159 It's gonna be either dangerously good or dangerously bad. I 0:00:28.280 --> 0:00:30.800 believe more towards the good. The guys have been hot lately, 0:00:30.880 --> 0:00:33.000 and of course so's the betting pros app If you 0:00:33.000 --> 0:00:35.000 haven't already, make sure you download that bad Boy, make 0:00:35.000 --> 0:00:36.760 sure you use the three free days of premium you 0:00:36.800 --> 0:00:39.400 can get, and make sure you sink your sportsbooks for free. 0:00:39.479 --> 0:00:41.319 Did you hear me for free? So you can get 0:00:41.320 --> 0:00:44.800 the best lines wherever you're placing your bets at all times, 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:47.800 and use the tools to make you smarter. All right, 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:50.320 let's kick things off. I want to get right into it, gentlemen. 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:53.720 I want to start here with the Miami Dolphins, a 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:56.880 team that Terrell, they do not play well in the 0:00:56.880 --> 0:00:59.120 cold weather. To a tongue of Bilo, it does not end. 0:00:59.400 --> 0:01:02.320 Mike mcdanie does not like to play against teams that 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:05.360 are any good teams that have under five hundred records, 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:11.039 Bueno teams over five hundred. Mike McDaniel is, let's say 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:13.440 struggle boss. Let's just put it that way. So let's 0:01:13.480 --> 0:01:16.040 talk about this, and let's talk about the six points 0:01:16.040 --> 0:01:19.920 here that Miami is on here minus six at home 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:24.080 against the New York Jets this week. So Terrell Furman, 0:01:24.520 --> 0:01:26.520 you're in on this. Let's talk about the why. 0:01:27.000 --> 0:01:30.039 Yeah, I really tried not to fade the Jets again, 0:01:30.800 --> 0:01:34.080 I really really really really really wanted to, but they 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:37.200 just make it so easy, like they constantly, they just 0:01:37.280 --> 0:01:41.000 make it incredibly easy every single week. I'm actually kicking 0:01:41.000 --> 0:01:43.360 myself that I didn't have Seattle on the card last 0:01:43.360 --> 0:01:46.080 week because as I watched that game, I'm just watching, 0:01:46.160 --> 0:01:48.160 watching watching, I'm like, oh, the Jets are in control. 0:01:48.280 --> 0:01:50.960 Oh well, they're just letting Seattle hang around, hang around, 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:53.800 hang around. They're not being serious on offense, they're not 0:01:53.880 --> 0:01:57.640 capitalizing on all of these drives opportunities, and here comes 0:01:57.720 --> 0:02:00.600 the mistake, and here comes the pick six, and there 0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:04.480 goes Leonard Williams running all the way down the sideline. 0:02:05.000 --> 0:02:08.160 This team is horrible. This team is absolutely horrible. Aaron 0:02:08.240 --> 0:02:11.400 Rodgers somehow has manufactured a worst win loss record as 0:02:11.440 --> 0:02:14.320 a New York Jet than Jack Wilson, and I think 0:02:14.400 --> 0:02:17.840 that that actually should be commended. I think that Jets 0:02:17.840 --> 0:02:21.400 fans should actually thank Aaron Rodgers for tanking this organization 0:02:21.600 --> 0:02:23.920 all the way down to the point where they're going 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:26.680 to have some pretty good draft capital next year. And 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:29.720 Aaron Rodgers reportedly doesn't want to come back to the 0:02:29.800 --> 0:02:30.560 Jets next season. 0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:32.800 This is I just read that he redid some of 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:33.760 his house in Jersey. 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:34.080 Though. 0:02:34.520 --> 0:02:37.640 Yeah, you start remodeling houses, Terrell. You want to stay 0:02:37.639 --> 0:02:40.519 there and enjoy as long as you can, I would imagine. 0:02:40.760 --> 0:02:44.200 Meanwhile, you get the Dolphins in December at home in 0:02:44.240 --> 0:02:48.079 a warm environment to eleven to zero against the Jets, 0:02:48.120 --> 0:02:51.720 and the Pats horrible, horrible record against the Bills. This 0:02:51.760 --> 0:02:54.280 is a system play flow chart. Are you playing the 0:02:54.280 --> 0:02:55.960 Bills in the division? No? Take two? 0:02:56.760 --> 0:03:00.120 There you go. I like it, Andrew Ericsson, that's all 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:02.440 Seahawks are actually my upset special lest week because again 0:03:02.440 --> 0:03:04.560 I couldn't figure out why the hell they were underdogs 0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:08.880 in that game, So that was good for business. This week, again, 0:03:08.919 --> 0:03:11.000 the Dolphins seem like they're good for business. This is 0:03:11.080 --> 0:03:13.560 very I think. What I like I've learned to like 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:15.880 about the Dolphins after being really annoyed at them, is 0:03:15.919 --> 0:03:18.480 I've just come to grips with who they are, which 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:20.640 is they're not a great team. They're a team that 0:03:20.680 --> 0:03:22.920 can beat up on the lesser, a team that can't 0:03:22.919 --> 0:03:24.840 compete when all said and done, and a team that's 0:03:24.880 --> 0:03:27.640 not going to travel and play in tough environments, period, 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:30.079 end of story. Now that I've had that moment where 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:33.919 I've I've been awoken to all of that, I think 0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:37.400 now I am ready to love this six with you guys, 0:03:37.440 --> 0:03:38.720 and I know you are too. So what are you 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:41.760 more excited about the Aaron Rodgers Netflix documentary coming out 0:03:41.800 --> 0:03:44.800 soon or this minus six on the Dolphins? Well? 0:03:44.840 --> 0:03:47.880 I just need to know about these household remodels that 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:50.280 Aaron Rodgers doing. Is he just is this just the 0:03:50.280 --> 0:03:52.760 the Tackle Bell edition so DeVante Adams can move in 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:54.160 and they can chances are now? 0:03:54.640 --> 0:03:57.400 Or is he remodeling and making it look nice for 0:03:57.440 --> 0:03:59.840 the next buyer, because he messed the house up a 0:04:00.040 --> 0:04:02.000 little bit, because he punched holes in the walls. With 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:04.320 how bad the season is going, well. 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:06.680 He clearly didn't take it responsibility that he's the one 0:04:06.680 --> 0:04:07.440 to punch the holes. 0:04:07.640 --> 0:04:09.320 There are no windows in this house because he has 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:11.400 to let all the darkness they can only bet. 0:04:14.000 --> 0:04:14.800 I'll tell you about. 0:04:14.960 --> 0:04:18.520 So I think that with this game, it's last week, 0:04:18.520 --> 0:04:20.520 it's just a classic spot to fade the Dolphins. And 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:22.800 then this is a classic spot to buy back in, 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:25.040 like you hit the nail on the head, Joey, where 0:04:25.600 --> 0:04:28.560 this is where the Dolphins dominate. They kill bad teams 0:04:28.600 --> 0:04:30.200 when they play at home and the warm weather where 0:04:30.240 --> 0:04:31.800 they don't have to bring like four hundred pounds of 0:04:31.839 --> 0:04:33.919 cold weather gear on their plane to play in a 0:04:33.960 --> 0:04:35.400 road game, Like they don't need to do any of 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:37.080 that stuff. They just they get to be at home 0:04:37.120 --> 0:04:39.240 in Miami. And the stats back this up. If you 0:04:39.240 --> 0:04:41.960 look at the Dolphins, they've covered the spread thirteen to 0:04:41.960 --> 0:04:44.880 the last sixteen games against teams with a losing record. 0:04:45.200 --> 0:04:47.839 So I was watching one of the two press conferences 0:04:47.880 --> 0:04:50.559 this week, and he's really disappointed about what their record 0:04:50.600 --> 0:04:52.560 is this season, and he's really taking on himself for 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:54.719 missing so many games that really put the Dolphins behind 0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:56.839 the eight ball. Right if he doesn't miss over a 0:04:56.839 --> 0:04:59.160 month of the season, we maybe talking about the Dolphins like, hey, 0:04:59.160 --> 0:05:01.480 this team could make some noise potentially, well, maybe make 0:05:01.520 --> 0:05:03.800 the playoffs and then immediately get eliminated like like we 0:05:03.960 --> 0:05:05.440 often see with them. But hey, at least be in 0:05:05.480 --> 0:05:07.680 the playoff race. So I still think they're motivated to 0:05:07.720 --> 0:05:09.560 win games. I think two as still wants to play 0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:11.560 well for his teammates, and I think they blow out 0:05:11.600 --> 0:05:13.520 the Jets. So give me the Dolphins, minusex. 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:15.200 Here you goes all three of us in on the 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:17.720 Dolphins this week, So what could go wrong? The next 0:05:17.720 --> 0:05:20.960 one's a little surprising for me. Now, not surprise. Andrew 0:05:20.960 --> 0:05:22.719 Erickson's with me on this because we talked about it 0:05:22.760 --> 0:05:24.480 on the live stream yesterday right here on Betting Pro. 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:27.520 So now you can catch us on Wednesdays doing the 0:05:27.520 --> 0:05:29.640 live stream three pm Eastern and Andrew and myself just 0:05:29.680 --> 0:05:31.839 kind of talking about some of the select games, breaking 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:34.000 some things down, taking your questions too, which was super 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:35.960 fun yesterday. I want to shout out to everybody was 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:38.600 watching Live with Us yesterday again three Eastern every Wednesday. 0:05:38.680 --> 0:05:40.279 Set your calendars or just ring the belt that it 0:05:40.320 --> 0:05:42.440 goes dang for notifications. When you subscribe to the Betting 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:45.039 Pros YouTube channel, that's a lot easier. I have come 0:05:45.080 --> 0:05:47.400 to this moment also, where you know, Andrew and I 0:05:47.440 --> 0:05:49.360 were talking about it, and I had thrown it out 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:51.560 earlier on Monday, and then I sat in it a 0:05:51.600 --> 0:05:55.280 little bit longer. And the Falcons are not a great 0:05:55.320 --> 0:05:59.159 football team. Kirk Cousins is absolutely though, going to I 0:05:59.200 --> 0:06:02.360 think take this moment seriously. Perhaps maybe that was a 0:06:02.360 --> 0:06:04.680 little bit of the distraction last week he tolayed terribly 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:06.599 off the bye too, throwing all those picks. It was 0:06:06.600 --> 0:06:07.880 not a good look for him. But every time we 0:06:07.920 --> 0:06:10.640 write off Kirk Cousins is when Kirk Cousins shows up again. 0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:13.039 Andrew used the Eagles game earlier this year as a 0:06:13.040 --> 0:06:16.000 perfect example of that. I don't think the Falcons are 0:06:16.040 --> 0:06:18.880 a good team. I know, Terrell, you don't. I'm surprised 0:06:18.880 --> 0:06:21.440 that you're on the Falcons points here. So the fact 0:06:21.440 --> 0:06:24.120 that you are also in this with Ericson and myself, 0:06:24.760 --> 0:06:27.039 you are the toughest one to Convince, So talk to 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:29.680 me about how you came to this point, because you 0:06:29.720 --> 0:06:32.760 have been the biggest critic of this team from day one. Yeah. 0:06:32.800 --> 0:06:35.200 Absolutely, And I still think this Falcons team is horrible 0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:38.960 by the way. I think that they're not good, But nonetheless, 0:06:39.120 --> 0:06:43.360 I think the Vikings are also very, very criminally overrated 0:06:43.440 --> 0:06:47.360 right now. And if I'm gonna pick two overrated teams, 0:06:47.400 --> 0:06:49.880 I'm gonna fade the team that has a better winning 0:06:49.880 --> 0:06:53.120 record because they are more overrated than the other overrated team. 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:55.160 But nonetheless, we're sitting. 0:06:54.920 --> 0:06:56.920 Here with the Atlanta Falcons and going up against the 0:06:56.920 --> 0:06:59.679 Minnesota Vikings, who I have been right about the past 0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:03.920 three weeks here talking about fading the Vikings, and I mean, 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:06.880 unfortunately it didn't go our way on the money line 0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:09.080 in either one of those games for the Bears or 0:07:09.160 --> 0:07:12.920 the Cardinals, and that's really really annoying. But nonetheless, this 0:07:13.080 --> 0:07:15.680 Vikings team has just been playing really, really close games 0:07:16.040 --> 0:07:18.559 and they were fortunate to get the cover, laying six 0:07:18.600 --> 0:07:22.480 against Tennessee, but they still didn't cover against the Jags 0:07:22.480 --> 0:07:24.960 the week before. They're playing a lot of close games 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:26.640 and just going out by the skin of their teeth 0:07:26.680 --> 0:07:29.120 and getting a win. Granted for the NFL and for 0:07:29.160 --> 0:07:31.640 the playoffs, that's enough. They're going to be a playoff team. 0:07:31.640 --> 0:07:33.040 I was wrong about that. I thought they were about 0:07:33.040 --> 0:07:35.120 to fall off a cliff, but I still don't think 0:07:35.120 --> 0:07:37.080 that's enough for them to cover this margin five and 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:39.280 a half here. I could see this being a close game. 0:07:39.520 --> 0:07:42.240 I mean, even through all four of those interceptions, they 0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:44.240 still found some way to make that a four point 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:47.080 game against the Chargers, and I think that actually does 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:49.920 mean something. I don't think this Vikings team is equipped 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:53.720 now with Sam Darnold at quarterback, with the inconsistencies on offense, 0:07:53.800 --> 0:07:55.760 and with the fact that yes they can turn the 0:07:55.800 --> 0:07:58.120 ball over, but they allow you to go twenty to 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:00.000 twenty and at least get some points at the end 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:04.160 the drives. I think that that's really really concerning for Minnesota. 0:08:04.320 --> 0:08:07.160 I love the bounce back angle and the revenge angle 0:08:07.240 --> 0:08:10.040 for Kirk Cousins in this game as well. Kirk Cousins 0:08:10.040 --> 0:08:12.920 when he's doubted and lot did very very nerve wrecking. 0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:15.960 Not as confident in a money line play this week, 0:08:16.000 --> 0:08:18.239 I will admit it. Not as confident in the money 0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:20.680 line play, but I feel really, really good about five 0:08:20.720 --> 0:08:22.480 and a half, Like, I don't think that this is 0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:24.200 going to be more than a touchdown game. I think 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:25.080 this is a close one. 0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:27.560 I agree, I think it is going to be closer. 0:08:28.360 --> 0:08:30.800 I'm honestly the forty five and a half is what 0:08:30.800 --> 0:08:32.600 you're finding most spots. I kind of feel like that's 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:35.000 about spot on too. But I do like that five 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:37.360 and a half with the falcons and revenge narratives sometimes 0:08:37.400 --> 0:08:39.800 can be very overrated. I don't think the first time 0:08:40.600 --> 0:08:43.360 you know is overrated. I don't think it's very overraty 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:44.839 when it comes to quarterbacks. Andrew, That's what you and 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:46.480 I were talking about yesterday. Whereas you have the ball 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:49.080 in your hand, you're able to control the game, right, 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:52.000 Jerry Judy, how does revenge narrative which again we'll be 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:52.600 talking about. 0:08:52.440 --> 0:08:59.120 That as I had Broncos laying five and a half 0:08:59.360 --> 0:09:04.360 and oh, what a sweat, What a sweat for Jamis 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:06.920 as Jamis as he could to get that pass and 0:09:06.960 --> 0:09:09.280 the fears and get that ball all the way into 0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:13.040 the red zone inside the five and throw a beautiful interception. 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:18.120 Beautiful I mean Jamis throws a very very catchuble football very. 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:19.880 Sometimes to the other team. 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:23.400 That's the problem doesn't matter who gets everybody. For everybody, 0:09:23.720 --> 0:09:27.079 I love credible opportunity quarterbacks like Jamis Look. 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:28.760 And the Jerry Judy one is like, you know, it's 0:09:28.760 --> 0:09:30.599 hard for a wide receiver. You know, you've got to 0:09:30.640 --> 0:09:32.640 pepper them with targets, you know, to have his revenge 0:09:32.640 --> 0:09:34.640 game or whatever it is. This one with Cousins, though, 0:09:34.679 --> 0:09:36.480 I mean, this is a familiarity with the organization for 0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:38.440 a very long time, a familiarity with the defense that 0:09:38.480 --> 0:09:41.160 he practice against. So they know his weaknesses, but he 0:09:41.200 --> 0:09:44.440 knows theirs too, So I do think Cousins can keep 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:47.160 this one close at the very least, if not maybe 0:09:47.160 --> 0:09:50.000 come up with a weird upset. It feels like the Vikings, 0:09:50.040 --> 0:09:51.960 as Roll was saying, also no over eight team maybe 0:09:52.040 --> 0:09:54.040 right for that last two weeks too, having a lot 0:09:54.080 --> 0:09:56.320 of trouble converting the too many field goals. You know 0:09:56.400 --> 0:09:59.400 that's there with the Vikings side. So Andrew, I know, 0:09:59.440 --> 0:10:01.199 Toarrell give us a lot of reasons. But for those 0:10:01.200 --> 0:10:03.679 people may have missed yesterday, what were some of your 0:10:03.679 --> 0:10:05.880 other reasons where we were talking about why Cousins and 0:10:05.920 --> 0:10:08.480 the Falcons could cover this five and a half. 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:10.160 Well, for starters, I had to put the Falcons in 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:11.719 the show sheet, because once I saw Trel put in, 0:10:11.800 --> 0:10:15.520 I was like, well, this is because Trell hates the Falcons, 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:17.680 and if he's gonna been on the Falcons, I'm like, Okay, 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:20.720 we're heading in the right direction here, we're holding hands. 0:10:20.720 --> 0:10:22.600 So I felt much better about that, and I think 0:10:22.640 --> 0:10:25.520 goes back to the point it's really less about the 0:10:25.600 --> 0:10:27.960 Kirk Cousins factor, and it's the fact, yes, no one's 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:29.599 talking about Oh you know how the Chiefs are the 0:10:29.679 --> 0:10:31.240 luckiest team in the NFL. You know, he's right there 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:33.320 next to them, the Minnesota Vikings seven and one in 0:10:33.400 --> 0:10:36.120 close games this season, So yeah, of course they're going 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:38.080 to keep this game close to the Falcons because that's 0:10:38.080 --> 0:10:41.560 all the Vikings do is playing close games. And you 0:10:41.600 --> 0:10:44.360 look at their defense, right, Oh, this very fear defense. 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:46.000 They love to blitz a lot. Hey, you know defense 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:47.960 also loves the blitz a lot. Todd Bowles. You know 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:51.000 what team the Kirk Cousins had the most success against 0:10:51.040 --> 0:10:54.120 this year, Tampa Bay, and they're blitz heavy defense. Because 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:56.280 I remember writing up the first time those those teams 0:10:56.320 --> 0:10:58.800 played and be like, man, I'm now Kirk Cousins can't 0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:01.400 really move sitting duck back there and all you did 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:02.280 was rip apart the blitz. 0:11:02.360 --> 0:11:03.600 Well, you don't have to move if you can get 0:11:03.640 --> 0:11:06.319 rid of the football quickly and reads of what the 0:11:06.360 --> 0:11:07.800 defense is going to do. And that's what a veteran 0:11:07.880 --> 0:11:10.079 quarterback presence breaks exactly. 0:11:10.160 --> 0:11:12.319 So I think that this game is going to be close. Yes, 0:11:12.320 --> 0:11:14.320 I'm not exactly sure if they're going to be able 0:11:14.360 --> 0:11:17.760 to pull out the straight up upset, but just covering 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:19.719 the five and a half, I think that that that's 0:11:19.760 --> 0:11:21.520 easy money this week with the Atlanta Falcons. Then the 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:23.439 other thing to point out two about the Vikings defense, 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:26.120 they're starting to get banged up. I've in pace one 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:29.760 of their linebackers. He missed last week, and the Arizona 0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:32.440 Cardinals ran all over the Minnesota Vikings the Minnesota Vikings 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:34.040 game for the most rushing yards they had given up 0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:36.240 at any point in the season against Arizona because they 0:11:36.240 --> 0:11:38.160 were missing one of their star linebackers. You know who 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:41.160 got hurt last week, Stefan Gilmore, one of their starting quarterbacks. 0:11:41.160 --> 0:11:42.280 In a minute that he left that game. You know 0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:44.640 who scores a touchdown, Marvin Harrison Junior. Again, the Cardinals 0:11:44.679 --> 0:11:47.120 can't score a touchdown in the entire game, he gets hurt, 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:50.160 they immediately score a touchdown. So it's not even less 0:11:50.160 --> 0:11:51.680 about Kirk Cousins. But like, how are they gonna stop 0:11:51.760 --> 0:11:52.360 John Robinson? 0:11:52.440 --> 0:11:52.520 Right? 0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:55.800 Stu's a monster, Like, no one's talking about that. It's like, oh, 0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:57.679 it's all about Kirk. It's about Kirk. It's like, but 0:11:57.720 --> 0:11:59.719 it's not, though, Like, you know who showed up after 0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:03.360 the not the Falcons offense. The Falcons defense showed up 0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:06.000 for the first time. They were able to get sacks Terrell. 0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:08.679 The Falcons got sacks on the quarterback for the first time, 0:12:08.720 --> 0:12:13.920 they held the charge, surprising I'm under exactly. So there's 0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:16.120 just the narrative is so much about Kirk Cousins and 0:12:16.160 --> 0:12:17.840 not all the other factors of the game that I 0:12:17.880 --> 0:12:21.640 think work in the Falcons favors. So I'm glad we're 0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:22.480 all handholding here. 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:26.560 And I'm really this is terrifying. We have never started 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:29.360 off a show all year where the three of us 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:32.480 and have agreed on two things in a row to 0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:37.080 start a show. But then again, I think have a well, 0:12:37.360 --> 0:12:39.000 I don't honestly, I don't think any of this is 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:40.480 going to go wrong. And I'll tell you why. I 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:44.520 think we have the clearest identity of where teams are 0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:47.400 at than we've ever had and that makes this a 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:50.040 little bit easier. At this stage, you know where fantasy 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:53.400 gets harder, betting starts to get a little bit easier. Also, 0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:56.080 to help you easier pain and make some good picks, 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:58.360 our discord Betting pros dot com slash chat. It's free 0:12:58.400 --> 0:13:00.679 to join. You can get picks there, you can get 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:03.320 interactions there with Matt parral toos out there all the 0:13:03.360 --> 0:13:05.520 time on there. So if you want some help from 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:08.400 expert handicappers like Matt, or you want to connect with 0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:11.360 fellow betters and elevate your strategy again, the place to 0:13:11.400 --> 0:13:13.520 do it is over at bettingpros dot com slash chat. 0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:16.880 Join our discord and don't forget too make your picks count. 0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:19.400 Bettingpros dot com slash NFL Contest that's the place you 0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:21.360 can go when you have the app, just go into 0:13:21.400 --> 0:13:23.559 the community tab and look for the NFL contest and 0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:24.880 you don't even have to make best you just have 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:26.719 to make picks. And we got a new month of 0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:29.880 December that just begins, so we're doing monthly prizes and 0:13:29.960 --> 0:13:32.480 weekly prizes. You just have to make the quick pick boom, 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:34.320 You're done. That's all you have to do. And if 0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:36.520 you make the best for the week or the month, 0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:38.240 you're gonna get a prize. So make sure you join 0:13:38.240 --> 0:13:40.360 our NFL contest going on right now, still through the 0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:42.800 month of December through January two, all the time we 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:45.800 got it going on, Tourette. Let's get to the Chargers 0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:48.480 and the Kansas City Chiefs. The number for this one 0:13:48.520 --> 0:13:52.480 is forty three. The Chiefs obviously continue to be a 0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:55.600 team that you sneaks out victories here and there. Everybody 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:57.680 has been on them. I'm sure they've heard all this, 0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:00.480 but they just keep winning football games regardless. And the Chargers. 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:03.720 Lad mccauckey banged up. That's a big one. JK. Dobbins 0:14:03.720 --> 0:14:06.320 on the IR that's a big one. This was poised 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:08.400 to be a really interesting game where I feel like 0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:10.160 the Chargers were ready to really take it to the 0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:12.440 Chiefs and really hand them another loss. Now I'm not 0:14:12.480 --> 0:14:14.240 so sure, and I don't know if you are or not, 0:14:14.320 --> 0:14:16.280 but you seem to have pivoted to the number instead 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:19.840 forty three, and you're taking the under. So let's talk 0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:21.800 about that one and talk about the why and is 0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:24.520 it because so many of these pieces that are missing 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:28.800 here potentially for the Chargers. Well, yeah, I've kind of strayed. 0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:31.040 I still like the Chargers plus four, by the way, 0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:32.880 I just think that this is a good spot, and 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:35.600 I like the coach and Jim Harbaugh. I think he's 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:37.240 going to be able to coach this team up. And 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:40.640 the defense has been fantastic all year round. Like they've 0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:44.320 had a couple of stumbles there with the Ravens and 0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:46.000 with the Bengals, but they've been. 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:50.120 Really, really good. So I like the under forty three 0:14:50.200 --> 0:14:52.120 and a half here. I think both defenses have been 0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:55.640 playing lights out. They've been very, very conservative and allowing points. 0:14:55.640 --> 0:14:58.960 The Chargers have held teams under their team total basically 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:02.080 all season. And this Kansas City Chiefs defense is where 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:03.640 that's how they want to play football. I know we 0:15:03.680 --> 0:15:06.600 say it every single week, but it hasn't changed because 0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:09.320 they haven't changed philosophy throughout the whole season. We want 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:11.440 to play good defense, we want to get after the quarterback. 0:15:11.600 --> 0:15:13.520 We want that to be the highlight of this team. 0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:15.640 And then Patrick Mahomes is that quarterback where we don't 0:15:15.680 --> 0:15:17.000 need him to go out here and throw for four 0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:19.120 hundred and five hundred yards. We just need him to 0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:20.920 make the plays when we need him to make them 0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:22.960 for us to be able to win the game. And 0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:25.040 I think this Chargers team, who thinks that they are 0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:27.520 comparable to the Kansas City Chiefs, they're trying to close 0:15:27.520 --> 0:15:30.520 that gap. Justin Herbert has been closest to anybody else 0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:33.720 besides maybe a Josh Allen or a Joe Burrow to 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:36.000 actually beating the Kansas City Chiefs. So I think that 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:37.880 with all of that, this is going to be a 0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:40.520 very very competitive game, a low scoring game similar to 0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:42.560 what we saw against the Kansas City Chiefs and the 0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:46.600 Raiders in this division on the day after Thanksgaving Black Friday. 0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:48.840 So I'm gonna take the under here. I think this 0:15:48.920 --> 0:15:51.800 is a hard smash mount football game in the COREA 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:54.600 and I love under forty three and a half. This 0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:56.480 could be very very low scoring. 0:15:56.920 --> 0:15:59.120 Does hardball have the running backs left to make it 0:15:59.120 --> 0:16:01.520 that smash mouth game? That's my only question. You know, 0:16:01.600 --> 0:16:03.560 Gus Edwards been like kind of like two yards and 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:06.920 a cloud of dust. Haskins had the fumble issue. You know, 0:16:07.040 --> 0:16:08.680 I'm not sure where we're gonna pivot next. 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:12.360 I mean, the fantasy community is telling you Kamani Fidelle. 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:16.000 The fantasy community has been talking up Kamani Videll like 0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:16.760 he's gonna. 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:16.920 Be the guy. 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:19.840 I think it's still Gus Edwards. This is still a 0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:23.120 Greg Roman offense, and Greg Roman loves his guys. And 0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:25.960 he went back to JK. Dobbins off of injury early 0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:28.560 in the season he got hurt. What happens every time 0:16:28.640 --> 0:16:31.040 JK Dobbin gets hurt, he goes to Gus Edwards, and 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:33.720 Gus Edwards is able to come out here and manufacture game. 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:36.000 So I think this actually is a sneaky, really good 0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:38.160 Gus Edwards game where he keeps them in this game 0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:39.960 and they just control time possession. 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:42.600 All right. The next one here for you, Eric's and 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:44.600 your third pick is a game that is pure chaos. 0:16:44.680 --> 0:16:47.440 I told you this has four outcomes written all over it. Therefore, 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:49.320 I will be waiting and watching part of the first 0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:51.320 quarter to see what the vibes are and then maybe 0:16:51.320 --> 0:16:53.960 bet it live after I see. But again, I could 0:16:53.960 --> 0:16:55.920 see four outcomes in this one, but you see one 0:16:55.920 --> 0:16:57.560 that you like when it comes to the Giants of 0:16:57.600 --> 0:17:01.120 the Saints, So sell me on it, because I'm still 0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:03.000 hands off until kickoff. 0:17:03.800 --> 0:17:06.199