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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa A. Brawmowitz. Daily we bring

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Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and

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Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg terminal. This

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Speaker 1: is a joy on radio and television and for those

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Speaker 1: of you on digital as well in its entirety. Richard

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Speaker 1: hass As a Council on Foreign Relations. We celebrate his

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Speaker 1: new book coming out on American Citizenship. We'll look for

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Speaker 1: that in January. I'm told the movie rights have been sold.

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Speaker 1: Bread Pitt scheduled to play Richard uh Here the Bill

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Speaker 1: of Obligations and Ten Habits of Good Citizens. But Ambassador,

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Speaker 1: I really feel strongly we need to switch to what

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Speaker 1: you built at the Council on Foreign Relations with Elizabeth

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Speaker 1: Economy and David Sex. You have been definitive in the

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Speaker 1: last three weeks on China. Nobody's done it better than you.

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Speaker 1: On your website, I want you to synthesize together all

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Speaker 1: you and your experts. Experts have learned about how this

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Speaker 1: president of China gets from Pelosi to the Party Congress.

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Speaker 1: Well has challenge Tom, is that what's worked for China

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Speaker 1: for the last three or four decades, not just for

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Speaker 1: Siji and Paying, but for his predecessors and for the

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Speaker 1: Communist Party, has been the deliverance of high levels of

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Speaker 1: economic growth. That was the basic bargain with Chinese citizens.

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Speaker 1: You don't worry so much about political rights, but we'll

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Speaker 1: give you an ever improving standard of living. The problem

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Speaker 1: for the Chinese, though, is not now. Because of everything

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Speaker 1: from their own economic mismanagement to COVID, the mismanagement there,

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Speaker 1: to supply chain issues, you name, name it, the leadership

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Speaker 1: cannot deliver that anymore. And the question in is how

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Speaker 1: do you how do you justify a country of one

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Speaker 1: point three billion being run by ninety million, which is

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Speaker 1: the Communist Party. And my concern, and I think a

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Speaker 1: lot of observers concerned, is that increasingly the substitute is

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Speaker 1: going to be nationalism. That explains not what I would

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Speaker 1: call the reaction, but the overreaction to the speaker's trip.

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Speaker 1: But I see ambassadors were all looking through the rose

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Speaker 1: colored glasses of having to have read eight hundred pages

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Speaker 1: of Jonathan Spence years ago. The fact is Elizabeth Economy

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Speaker 1: is written like no one on the fragility that he

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Speaker 1: may face at the party conference and at the federal level.

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Speaker 1: How fragile do you believe he is as he goes

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Speaker 1: into these important meetings. Actually, don't think he's all that fragile.

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Speaker 1: If you think about the anti corruption drive Tom, whatever

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Speaker 1: impact it had on corruption, what we also know is

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Speaker 1: it had an enormous impact on removing any opposition to

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Speaker 1: sees and thing. So my sense this November and maybe

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Speaker 1: not a complete coronation, but he's going to get that

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Speaker 1: that their term. There may be some limits on his

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Speaker 1: soul leadership, but I think it's a pretty safe bet.

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Speaker 1: The odds are extremely high that he will get a

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Speaker 1: third term and conceivably even more than that one day. Richard,

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Speaker 1: you've been a leading voice on this, and I think

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Speaker 1: it's so so important to go over what you just

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Speaker 1: said moments ago. That's political legitimacy through nationalism and not

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Speaker 1: through economic stability. That's a change to shift, and Richard,

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Speaker 1: I wonder what you think that looks like for the

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Speaker 1: next couple of years and what we need to be

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Speaker 1: wary of. Well, the words mean, Jonathan, uh, what it

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Speaker 1: looks like I'm we're already seeing it is China's established

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Speaker 1: a much more muscular baseline against Taiwan. What they've been

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Speaker 1: doing in the last few weeks, which, by the way,

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Speaker 1: it was being developed over the course of months and years,

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Speaker 1: it wasn't a spontaneous response, far far too elaborate, far

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Speaker 1: too large. Well, that's now become the new normal. We're

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Speaker 1: seeing a much higher level of exercises, many more encroachments

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Speaker 1: into air space and c space near Taiwan. China has

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Speaker 1: been building up it's military for years. My guess is

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Speaker 1: one the lessons of they'll take from the Ukraine War

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Speaker 1: is they've got to build off certain types of conventional forces,

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Speaker 1: also their nuclear forces. They will conclude from Ukraine that

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Speaker 1: the reason the United States has not gotten directly involved

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Speaker 1: is because of Russia's enormous nuclear arsenal. Watch China's nuclear expansion.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be robust, so my senses, over the

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Speaker 1: next few years, they are going to increasingly fill out

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Speaker 1: their their military strength. They're going to demonstrate it in

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Speaker 1: the hopes of intimidating others. Ironically, Jonathan, it could well

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Speaker 1: have exactly the opposite effect. China's foreign policy has been

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Speaker 1: is and probably will be heavy handed, and what they're

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Speaker 1: doing is increasingly turning up the level of alarm and

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Speaker 1: among its neighbors, above all Japan, to some extent, Taiwan, Australia,

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Speaker 1: obviously the United States. That's where we are, Richard. One

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Speaker 1: speculation has been that perhaps it won't turn into a

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Speaker 1: hot war in the very near term, but you will

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Speaker 1: see China clamp down and isolate Taiwan basically and not

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Speaker 1: allowing expor or imports at a time when Taiwan is

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Speaker 1: the main exporter of semiconductor chips. This a major potential

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Speaker 1: risks of the global economy. How realistic do you see

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Speaker 1: that as an outcome that could plausibly happen? And what's

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Speaker 1: the US response? It's a good point lea sorority beginning

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Speaker 1: to see certain economic sanctions against Taiwan and Taiwan, Japan,

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Speaker 1: South Korea and others have made a I think a

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Speaker 1: terrible strategic era. They have allowed themselves to become overwhelmingly

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Speaker 1: dependent on their needs to export to China and their

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Speaker 1: need to import from China. This excuse them China enormous

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Speaker 1: leverage over its neighbors. So one of the real challenges

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Speaker 1: I would say going forward is whether China's neighbors begin

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Speaker 1: to reduce their trade dependence on the mainland. And then, yes,

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Speaker 1: as you suggest, we've also got a race here in

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Speaker 1: the semiconductor world whether we can somehow reduce Taiwan's centrality,

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Speaker 1: not by doing anything to Taiwan, by increasing our own

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Speaker 1: capabilities and that of others. But my, that's that's that's

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Speaker 1: a project of years, not not much, Richard. We really

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Speaker 1: need to continue this conversation another time. It is so

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Speaker 1: so important, and again you've been a leading voice on it,

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Speaker 1: and I followed you over the last couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: Is after that trip from speaking below to the Taiwan

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Speaker 1: and I think this is going to be something we

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Speaker 1: all need to pay attention to. Richard House there of

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Speaker 1: the Council on Foreign Relations, let's speak English right now.

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Speaker 1: We can do that with Anasteis Ramosa, the chief investment

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Speaker 1: strategist at I Capital. Anastasia the SMP up sevent from

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Speaker 1: the June low. Then that's that one hundred up close

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Speaker 1: to twenty three percent from the June low. When do

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Speaker 1: we stop calling this of their market rally? Well, maybe

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Speaker 1: i've read about now John and I think the market

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Speaker 1: probably does not move materially higher from here. I think

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Speaker 1: forty three hundred will likely continue to be a resistance.

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Speaker 1: But probably the biggest takeaway that maybe we don't have

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Speaker 1: to retest the laws that we have seen of thirty

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Speaker 1: seven hundred. And the reason I say that, I think

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Speaker 1: there is enough that's changed fundamentally to to justify that.

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Speaker 1: The reason why we were back at dirty seven hundreds

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Speaker 1: were worried about the FED depressing valuations, and we're worried

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Speaker 1: about the types of cuts that we need to take

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Speaker 1: to the next twelve month of earnings or three. And

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Speaker 1: as we look around today, as inflation is easing, it's

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Speaker 1: giving the FED more wiggle rooms. So perhaps they don't

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Speaker 1: have to continue to depress those valuations. Because even if

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Speaker 1: the high hundred basis points tom that's already god in

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Speaker 1: in the stage of the continuum. Here of the inflation

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Speaker 1: curve is a complete mystery. There's a couple of kinks.

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Speaker 1: We don't know where it's going to stop along the way.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it's a glide to whatever. If inflation in the

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Speaker 1: US and globally comes down more rapidly than the wisdom,

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Speaker 1: what does that do to your stock market call, well,

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Speaker 1: I think it props it up significantly. I mean, we

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Speaker 1: were just talking about Home Depot and Walmart, and this

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Speaker 1: would be as the types of stock that I would

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Speaker 1: not be bullish on in this environment. However, if inflation

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Speaker 1: does ease up and all of a sudden, consumers have

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Speaker 1: more wiggle room in their budgets to spend on things

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Speaker 1: that are not just this inials, and that props up

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Speaker 1: that sector. You know, if inflation eases up and the

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Speaker 1: FED eases up as a result of it, then we

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Speaker 1: can expect more from technology shares, from the high growth stocks,

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Speaker 1: and so on and so forth. So I think that's

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Speaker 1: a very important dynamic. But I think Tom, in order

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Speaker 1: for us to matually break above forty three hundred, and

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Speaker 1: for us to work our way Highers, we need to

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Speaker 1: see earnings revisions actually turn the other way around. The

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Speaker 1: reason why I say forty three hundred seems to be

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Speaker 1: the cap is because it's based on that hundred and

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Speaker 1: two hundred forty dollars of next all month earnings and

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Speaker 1: a multiple that's somewhere around seventeen and a half times.

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Speaker 1: You know, how much more we're willing to pay. I

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Speaker 1: think the FED would probably need to ease up on

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Speaker 1: policy a lot in order for us to justify paying more.

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Speaker 1: And you know how much can economy accelerate to justify

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Speaker 1: higher earnings. I don't think that's the outcome right now.

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Speaker 1: That's exactly where I wanted to go. Do you think

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Speaker 1: that it's too cute to believe that the FED is

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Speaker 1: going to push back against the essentially easing and financial

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Speaker 1: conditions that we've seen over the past weeks. Yes, there's

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Speaker 1: so much talk about that. And first of all, if

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Speaker 1: you look at the easing of the conditions, most of

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Speaker 1: that occurred in equities. And if you look at something

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Speaker 1: like the Goldman Sachs financial condition, and it certainly is up,

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Speaker 1: but it's still well off where it was just in

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Speaker 1: the beginning of the year, and it's roughly out of

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Speaker 1: twenty year average. I think, yes, there's been easy on

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Speaker 1: the market on the on the margin, but it's not

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Speaker 1: been that significant. The second thing that I would say

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Speaker 1: is I think Fetcher Powell actually outlined a pretty good

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Speaker 1: reaction reaction function. First of all, he said that they

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Speaker 1: want to be a little bit more cautious as they

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Speaker 1: get to neutral, and we're now close to neutral. Uh,

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Speaker 1: they also want to be a little bit more cautious

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Speaker 1: because they know that the typing that since the system

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Speaker 1: acts with a lag and we put a lot of tightening,

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Speaker 1: and he said these words that there's more tightening in

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Speaker 1: the pipeline. So let's just see how that plays out.

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Speaker 1: And then the third part of this reaction function that

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Speaker 1: he's outlined is if inflation continues to surprise to the upside,

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Speaker 1: we will do more. But if it does in there's

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Speaker 1: probably a case for us to do less. And you know,

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Speaker 1: to Tom's point, we are chipping away at more and

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Speaker 1: more pieces of the inflation puzzle. So I think against

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Speaker 1: all that the Fed can actually maybe let the financial

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Speaker 1: conditions he's up a little bit and still do a

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Speaker 1: little bit less going forward at least. Did you hear well?

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Speaker 1: I think I heard, which is cham and Pound did

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Speaker 1: a good jump? Did you hear that? Yeah? But I

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Speaker 1: think I guess and actually just said Schamon Pound did

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Speaker 1: a good jump. I think that she's not alone in

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Speaker 1: thinking that Some people think that the ambiguity are just

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Speaker 1: sort of holding the line is the way to go

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Speaker 1: of my capital. We are thrilled to bring you Brian

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Speaker 1: Nagle out of Wharton he's with OpCo Oppenheimer in company

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Speaker 1: with the optimistic John Stulfus. Mr Nagel is forced a

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Speaker 1: gunpoint to look at the glass is half full every morning.

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Speaker 1: He's also expert on retail, Brian, who wins it retail

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Speaker 1: in the next eighteen months to two years of the

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Speaker 1: different segments, which is your strong by Yeah, good morning,

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Speaker 1: So look, I we we I think I'll answer that

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Speaker 1: one way. But we saw I think a very strong

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Speaker 1: report from from Home Depot today, you know, So I

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Speaker 1: think the home improvement category from a category perspective, is

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Speaker 1: a winner in in retail over the time frame you

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Speaker 1: laid out, Tom. I also tend to think, look, I

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Speaker 1: think the at leisure category, you know, and that's why

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Speaker 1: I need names like Nike and Lulu Limit I think

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Speaker 1: are very well positioned here. Then another category that I've

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Speaker 1: been recommending for a while, which I think there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of underlying strength at this point, is the autoparts

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Speaker 1: category and leading operators such as auto Zone and and

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Speaker 1: A Riley. I mean, the commonality across all these is

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Speaker 1: your you know, they're healthy spaces with good underlying consumer

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Speaker 1: demand and then dominated by really strong, highly functional, good

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Speaker 1: operating good operating companies. Bryan, Let's stick with Home Depot

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Speaker 1: for a second, because you really pinpointed on that if

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Speaker 1: you're so optimistic, if it's doing so well, why are

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Speaker 1: the shares down more than and lower and pre market

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Speaker 1: trading after the earnings report? Sure? So, look, I mean,

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Speaker 1: there's no secret out there. There's a lot of market

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Speaker 1: concerns and I know some of your other guests just

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Speaker 1: talking about this, a lot of market concerns about a

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Speaker 1: forthcoming recession in the United States, and if any of

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Speaker 1: us take out our recessionary playbook, home improvement and housing

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Speaker 1: would be victims. Okay, And that's that's what the That's

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Speaker 1: what's been happening with the market here, you know, is

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Speaker 1: you look at the conversations I have with our clients

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Speaker 1: every day, you know, is whether or not there's a

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Speaker 1: recession coming, and then whether recession is coming to how

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Speaker 1: severe is going to be. And I think the market

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Speaker 1: right now is very much continued to take the view,

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Speaker 1: you know, despite a lot of signals otherwise that that

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Speaker 1: recession is on the way. That's what's happening with Home Depot.

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Speaker 1: You know what I find so fascinating right now is

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Speaker 1: as you look at that is a backdrop with the marketplace.

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Speaker 1: If you look at home results today. Okay, we could

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Speaker 1: benet picky that their traffic was weaker off a very

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Speaker 1: strong aults over the last couple of years, but I

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Speaker 1: think the overall results are very strong and very unsuggestive

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Speaker 1: of any type of economic downturn or recession. Do you

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Speaker 1: really have this argument going on the market list? Well,

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Speaker 1: but in fairness, though, you are seeing even Walmart, even

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Speaker 1: though they beat expectations that they had already ratcheted down,

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Speaker 1: they are talking about billions of dollars of canceled orders,

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Speaker 1: a number of headwinds. They have downgraded their forecasts over

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Speaker 1: the past few months, in addition to the likes of Target.

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Speaker 1: At what point do you see more headwinds than you're

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Speaker 1: making out in terms of the consumer not being able

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Speaker 1: to spend as much, being more discretionary in terms of

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Speaker 1: what they decided to buy given the high price of

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Speaker 1: basic stables. Yeah, look, it's okay, It's a great question.

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Speaker 1: So you know, if you kind of compare contrasts, like

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Speaker 1: a home deeople in a Walmart too, again too very

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Speaker 1: dominant retailers, right, but positioned differently. I mean home depot

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Speaker 1: given what they sell, and that's home improvement products, which

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Speaker 1: are largely to homeowners or professional customers. You know, they're

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Speaker 1: they're dealing with generally speaking, a higher and consumer arguably

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Speaker 1: one consumer. It's more insulated econom the pressures. You know,

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Speaker 1: Walmart is different. Okay, well, walm Walmart tends to you know,

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Speaker 1: to cater to lower middle income consumers that are more

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Speaker 1: susceptible to economic economic pressures. Now, my colleague at Alpenheimer

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Speaker 1: covers very closely Walmarts. I would leave the investment opinions

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Speaker 1: to him, but I think that's one big difference between

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Speaker 1: those companies. You're serving a different consumer. Now, what I

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Speaker 1: would start if you look at home depot or other

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Speaker 1: companies that are serving these generally more affluent type consumers. Look,

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Speaker 1: I think there you have, you know, to the extent

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Speaker 1: we start to see real job issues which were not

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Speaker 1: yet you know, that would that would start to concern

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Speaker 1: me more from the consumer spending standpoint. But like right now,

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Speaker 1: I think overall, again, there there's weakness, there's some weakness

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Speaker 1: out there, but overall consumer spending is holding up quite well.

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Speaker 1: And can you just finish up by telling us what

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Speaker 1: the correlation is between house prices and home deep hog profits.

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Speaker 1: Then this is important given them we own expecting the

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Speaker 1: housing market to take a real bating. Does that name

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Speaker 1: hold up in that world? Yeah? So, look, it's it's

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Speaker 1: so when I think about the various macro factors that

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Speaker 1: drive demand at home depot, home price appreciation is key, okay,

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Speaker 1: And it's the home price appreciation always and over time. Essentially,

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Speaker 1: what happens is if I'm a homeowner, Okay, my home

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Speaker 1: is appreciating in value, I viewed that home as more investment,

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Speaker 1: really and make investments at that home that's either remodeling

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Speaker 1: projects or in some cases just maintenance. So if if

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Speaker 1: if I were to you know, if if we were

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Speaker 1: to know, if I were to learn that home prices

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Speaker 1: across the United States would decline in some dramatic fashion,

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Speaker 1: that would be a negative for home people, no question. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I don't think we're seeing that right now. There's always

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Speaker 1: pockets across the country, and you know, certain areas maybe

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Speaker 1: that overvalue just johing to see some softness at home prices.

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Speaker 1: But you know, as of the last data, home price

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Speaker 1: appreciation in the United States is very much intact. And

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Speaker 1: I really think that's a key to positive driver of

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Speaker 1: demand for home depot and also to get you thillis

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Speaker 1: brogo that on the lightest with housing and home depot

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Speaker 1: and retail. Right now, Gregory Daco joins US chief Economist

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Speaker 1: and E why Parthenon with there instant younger of course,

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Speaker 1: and we're thrilled he could join this morning, Greg. One

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Speaker 1: of the great debates we're having here as an optimism

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Speaker 1: seen out of part of JP Morgan this morning on

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Speaker 1: inflation coming down faster. That buttress is up against your

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Speaker 1: good analysis of a recession or lack thereof, because a

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Speaker 1: recession needs to be persistent, profound and pervasive. Is our

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Speaker 1: inflation persistent, profound and pervasive? I think Tom, we're in

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Speaker 1: an environment that's quite unique. I know there are a

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Speaker 1: lot of desires to compare the current situation to prior instances,

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Speaker 1: prior cycles. We were just talking about the housing slowdown. UM,

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Speaker 1: I don't think we're in the oh, seven oh eight

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Speaker 1: type of environment. We have household finances that are generally

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Speaker 1: still healthy in terms of wealth at elevated levels, in

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Speaker 1: terms of leverage at twenty year lows UM and in

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Speaker 1: terms of excess savings. Those are good conditions entering this

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Speaker 1: type of environment where there will be a slowdown led

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Speaker 1: by interest rate sensitive sectors. That is, as we were saying,

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Speaker 1: what the Fed intends to do. It intends to cool demand.

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Speaker 1: The housing sector alone is not enough. It wants to

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Speaker 1: cool the broader set of of indicators in terms of

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Speaker 1: demand and hope that inflation follows suit. So I would

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Speaker 1: expect to see persistence in inflation, but I think the

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Speaker 1: key theme on the inflation front is going to be

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Speaker 1: that divergence between headline inflation and core inflation. Headline inflation

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Speaker 1: is going to cool with accelerating momentum thanks to energy prices,

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Speaker 1: but core inflation is likely to sort more persistence going

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Speaker 1: into next year. Greg, you just went through the strength

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Speaker 1: of household bane shapes and you brought us some applcate

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Speaker 1: numbers when you look at low income, middle income and

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Speaker 1: how high income households is the same true from one

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Speaker 1: group to the other. Well, I think we are going

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Speaker 1: to come out of this, this COVID crisis with a

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Speaker 1: K shaped recovery. I know that K shaped recovery was

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Speaker 1: the theme of of last year, but I think we

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Speaker 1: have to be conscious of the fact that inflation is

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Speaker 1: not affecting everyone in the same way. So lower families

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Speaker 1: that spend more on gas, on rent, on food are

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Speaker 1: likely to be disproportionately affected by this high inflation environment

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Speaker 1: and see their ability to spend being constrained. The higher

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Speaker 1: income families less. So inflation is still going to be

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Speaker 1: a concern and a constraint on spending overall, but it's

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Speaker 1: not going to affect everyone in the same way. I

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Speaker 1: think when we look at the housing market and the

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Speaker 1: direction of the housing market, what we are starting to

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Speaker 1: see is that there is this weakening in home sales

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Speaker 1: which has already occurred over the past six months. That's

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Speaker 1: feeding through to home builders sentiment. It will feed through

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Speaker 1: two starts. I think there is further to go to

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Speaker 1: the downside in terms of housing activity, um, but that

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Speaker 1: will take place over the next few months. It's not

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Speaker 1: over yet. We're likely to see some further downside on

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Speaker 1: the housing front when it comes to overall home building activity.

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Speaker 1: So what are you looking for, Greg? In order to

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Speaker 1: determine how deep the downturn will be? We talk about

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Speaker 1: soft landing and hard landing, and it kind of conflates

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Speaker 1: this idea of a slow down that is probably expected

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Speaker 1: across the board. What are you looking at. Well, what

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at is what businesses are doing. We are

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Speaker 1: in this unique environment where businesses that we talked to

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Speaker 1: are still talking about hiring workers at a slower pace,

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Speaker 1: but they're still talking about hiring workers. We recently hosted

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Speaker 1: the E Y CEO Roundtable and one of the key

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Speaker 1: indicators that I paid close attention to is what I

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Speaker 1: call the talent gradient. How companies are reacting to this

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Speaker 1: expected slowdown in economic demand. And what we are hearing

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Speaker 1: is that businesses are looking to initially slow hiring rather

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Speaker 1: than proceed with massive layoffs. That's the first option, slow hiring,

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Speaker 1: than strategic hiring freezes, then strategic layoffs, and then more

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Speaker 1: broad based layoffs. But the talent gradient has moved up,

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Speaker 1: and what that means in terms of the potential for

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Speaker 1: consumers to continue spending is that that should support household

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Speaker 1: income going forward. The same is true for business investment.

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Speaker 1: Businesses are still looking to build resilience. They're not retrenching,

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Speaker 1: and that's another encouraging sign in terms of this potential

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Speaker 1: recession being milder than the prior ones that we just

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Speaker 1: lived through, at least for the upper tiers or the

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Speaker 1: middle class and the upper middle class and the wealthy,

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Speaker 1: but not necessarily the lower class right, which are being

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Speaker 1: hit on both sides. Right, you're seeing the cutbacks happening

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Speaker 1: more there because there aren't the workers, and the wages

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Speaker 1: are going up much more quickly. What are the longer

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Speaker 1: term consequences of the K shaped recovery that you're talking about. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think one of the key consequences of this K

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Speaker 1: shaped recovery is that we're going to see a different

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Speaker 1: approach to labor going forward. We're going to see an

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Speaker 1: approach in which labor is ued as much more valuable

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Speaker 1: than it was pre COVID. An environment where there is

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Speaker 1: there are difficulties to find the appropriate labor to train

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Speaker 1: them to pay them will mean that companies are more

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Speaker 1: likely to retain their workers with more interest but there

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Speaker 1: are they are going to be strategic when it comes

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Speaker 1: to which sectors they're working in. Sectors that are seeing

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Speaker 1: the more severe slow down in economic activity are likely

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Speaker 1: to be the ones that transition more at a faster

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Speaker 1: pace from this reduced hiring process towards more massive layoffs.

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Speaker 1: So we are likely to be in an environment where

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Speaker 1: both higher inflation and higher interest rates and this different

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Speaker 1: talent gradient affect the response of consumers and their ability

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Speaker 1: to navigate through this period of uncertainty. But really my

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Speaker 1: key focus right now is what businesses are doing. We

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Speaker 1: know there's a consumer slowdown underway. We haven't seen yet

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Speaker 1: a massive slowdown in terms of business investment and hiring,

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Speaker 1: and that will be key engaging whether we do end

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Speaker 1: up in a recession and how severe that recession is.

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Speaker 1: Greg also gonna get your reaction to that. I said

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Speaker 1: looking ahead to rerate out sounds that sounds next step

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Speaker 1: for this economic grega that of a y path and on.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join

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Speaker 1: us live week days from seven to ten AMI Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio and on Bloomberg Television each day from

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Speaker 1: six to nine am for insight from the best and economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on

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Speaker 1: Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course on

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Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom keene In. This is Bloomberg