WEBVTT - Jay Powell, Polestar, Markets, and Veterans 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:04.360 Bloomberg is now on your dashboard with Apple CarPlay and 0:00:04.360 --> 0:00:08.160 Android Auto. It gives you access to every Bloomberg podcast, 0:00:08.280 --> 0:00:11.560 live audio feeds from Bloomberg Radio, print stories from Bloomberg 0:00:11.640 --> 0:00:14.920 News in audio form, and the latest headlines of the 0:00:14.920 --> 0:00:18.600 click of a button with Bloomberg News. Now it's free 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:21.439 with the latest version of the Bloomberg Business App. That's 0:00:21.680 --> 0:00:24.400 the Bloomberg Business App. Get it on your phone in 0:00:24.440 --> 0:00:27.760 the Apple App Store or on Google Play. Just download 0:00:27.800 --> 0:00:30.560 the app, connect your phone to your car and get started. 0:00:30.960 --> 0:00:34.400 And it's all presented by our sponsor, Interactive Brokers. 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:38.600 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:39.800 my co host Matt Miller. 0:00:40.200 --> 0:00:44.279 Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:48.160 and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market Moven News. 0:00:48.720 --> 0:00:51.839 I'm the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:55.080 you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com Slash podcast. 0:00:55.440 --> 0:00:57.680 All right, let's get over to Washington, DC right now. 0:00:57.720 --> 0:01:00.960 A lot going on there as the government, as the 0:01:01.280 --> 0:01:06.160 as Congress you know, runs closer and closer to a shutdown. 0:01:06.360 --> 0:01:08.440 We have a serious upset. 0:01:08.480 --> 0:01:11.800 I would say for Democrats in West Virginia. Nathan Dean 0:01:11.959 --> 0:01:14.319 joins us. He covers all things politics out of the 0:01:14.360 --> 0:01:19.000 Washington d C Bureau. So mister Manchin is not running 0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:22.160 for reelection. What does this mean for the Senate, Nathan. 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:25.440 Well, it means pretty much the Democrats have a really steep, 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:27.560 uphill battle to keep the Senate in the twenty twenty 0:01:27.600 --> 0:01:29.600 four elections. Look, it was going to be a challenge 0:01:29.640 --> 0:01:32.880 to begin with, but with Senator Mansion announcing his retirement, 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:36.720 that essentially flips the state to the Republicans. And so 0:01:37.319 --> 0:01:40.400 you know, this election is very bad for those members 0:01:40.400 --> 0:01:43.319 in the Senate. There aren't many Republicans out there running 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:47.000 for reelection that the Democrats potentially have a chance, and 0:01:47.000 --> 0:01:49.600 that actually could play into what the Democrats do for 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:52.480 the rest of the year before the election. We may 0:01:52.520 --> 0:01:55.720 see them focus more on confirming judges and confirming appointments 0:01:55.760 --> 0:01:57.720 and trying to get a lot of the cleanup work 0:01:57.720 --> 0:01:59.800 that they can do when you control the Senate. Before 0:02:00.320 --> 0:02:02.640 you know, they anticipate to lose it in the twenty 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:03.400 twenty four election. 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:05.960 I was actually I wanted to ask you about that, Nathan, 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:07.560 because I think you know a lot of us. Know, 0:02:07.680 --> 0:02:10.799 Joe mansioned to be I guess a moderate Democrat is 0:02:10.880 --> 0:02:13.280 how he would describe himself, and on a lot of issues, 0:02:13.320 --> 0:02:15.760 probably leans a little bit more right than left. And 0:02:16.120 --> 0:02:18.480 what a thought, maybe, you know, if the Democrats could 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:20.800 hold on to that seat, this would maybe be viewed 0:02:20.840 --> 0:02:24.040 more opportunistically, perhaps if you could get somebody who's like 0:02:24.080 --> 0:02:25.880 a little bit more in line with the agenda that 0:02:25.919 --> 0:02:26.799 you're trying to push. 0:02:27.600 --> 0:02:29.200 Yeah, but I mean you also have to answer the 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:31.400 question of what would he do if he were to 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:34.799 actually win reelection. I mean, then you know the makeup 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:36.880 of the Senate could be if the Republicans were to 0:02:36.919 --> 0:02:40.280 take the Senate without Senator or with Senator Mansion there, 0:02:40.360 --> 0:02:41.880 you know, he would lose a lot of that power 0:02:41.919 --> 0:02:45.520 as being that one kingmaker individual that can sort of 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:48.919 go back and forth between the parties and try and appeal. 0:02:49.000 --> 0:02:51.360 So I think this is sort of also maybe and 0:02:51.400 --> 0:02:53.120 this is just my own view, that maybe this is 0:02:53.160 --> 0:02:55.400 Senator Mansion trying to prepare for the future. You know, 0:02:55.480 --> 0:02:58.720 he made that statement yesterday online how he wants to 0:02:58.760 --> 0:03:00.800 travel the country and see if there's a way to 0:03:00.800 --> 0:03:03.880 mobilize a centrist third party run. I don't think that's 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:06.080 going to happen. Again, that's just my own personal view. 0:03:06.680 --> 0:03:08.760 So I just think that he saw the future and 0:03:08.880 --> 0:03:10.440 was like, you know what, maybe the future is better 0:03:10.480 --> 0:03:13.680 for me working outside of Congress than being inside, because 0:03:14.160 --> 0:03:16.600 if the Republicans do take the Senate, you know, he 0:03:16.639 --> 0:03:19.080 may actually not may not have all that much stuff 0:03:19.120 --> 0:03:19.320 to do. 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:22.760 All right, let's talk about the Congress here. Mike Johnson 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:27.680 has let's see, seven days left before a government shutdown. 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:30.959 Does he have any plan to stop that? 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:34.160 So, you know what we've just heard is, you know, 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:36.120 there's really two options on the table. One is a 0:03:36.160 --> 0:03:39.280 clean continuing resolution. This other idea, and this is the 0:03:39.280 --> 0:03:40.960 one that I think he's going to go with initially, 0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:43.640 is this idea of a laddered continuing resolution, so that 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:47.120 he would extend funding for certain agencies to say January fifteenth, 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:50.040 and then funding for other agencies to February fifteenth. So 0:03:50.080 --> 0:03:52.440 then you would have a rolling set of potential government 0:03:52.480 --> 0:03:56.280 shutdowns depending on which agency you're impacted by. You know, 0:03:56.520 --> 0:03:58.760 we are actually telling our clients that we still think 0:03:58.800 --> 0:04:01.200 it's around a forty percent ants of a shutdown next week. 0:04:01.400 --> 0:04:04.800 I know that doesn't sound like in line with the 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:07.520 news headlines that are coming out there. But you know, 0:04:07.560 --> 0:04:09.760 there are just too many political cakes that are being 0:04:09.800 --> 0:04:14.000 baked around, you know, Ukraine, Israel, House GOP ideas, border security, 0:04:14.200 --> 0:04:16.560 and none of these ideas are actually close to fruition, 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:19.839 and they need more time for negotiation. And so ultimately 0:04:19.880 --> 0:04:22.160 I think what will happen is is that next week 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:24.600 Speaker Johnson will pursue this letter at CR. It won't 0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:27.320 go anywhere with the Senate, and then they'll entertain this 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:29.479 idea of maybe kicking the can down the road another 0:04:29.480 --> 0:04:32.400 four weeks or eight weeks to give those ideas more 0:04:32.400 --> 0:04:36.760 time to fight or to go to be closer to finalization, 0:04:37.080 --> 0:04:39.440 and then kick the can on the bigger fight because 0:04:39.600 --> 0:04:42.000 there's really no strategy yet of why you would shut 0:04:42.040 --> 0:04:45.000 the government down. Most government shutdowns, a party goes in 0:04:45.000 --> 0:04:47.359 there and says, we will want we want to close 0:04:47.360 --> 0:04:50.400 the government and get this in return, and that just 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:53.160 doesn't exist. So I think the Republicans need a little 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:55.800 bit more time to figure out what that is, and 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:57.880 so I think ultimately they'll just kick the can down 0:04:57.880 --> 0:04:58.200 the road. 0:04:58.400 --> 0:05:00.679 Kick the can down the road, isn't that the famous 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:03.640 phrase of this whole exercise that we've been going through. 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:05.960 For man, when was the first one now or the 0:05:05.960 --> 0:05:06.680 potential one? 0:05:06.800 --> 0:05:10.440 Was it end of I mean in this in this Congress. 0:05:09.920 --> 0:05:13.200 In this or the beginning of October? Right, that's when 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:15.000 that was potentially getting going y. 0:05:15.080 --> 0:05:16.560 Yes, and we the debt ceiling. 0:05:16.360 --> 0:05:20.080 Debate, right, Okay, so we've kicked the can to now. Okay, 0:05:20.800 --> 0:05:22.560 all right, just had to catch up on the timeline 0:05:22.560 --> 0:05:24.120 there a little bit, Nathan. It's been a lot to 0:05:24.200 --> 0:05:28.520 keep track of. When Mike Johnson emerged as the Speaker 0:05:28.560 --> 0:05:31.680 of the House, were any of these proposals on the 0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:35.000 table at the time. Did people potentially like catapult him 0:05:35.000 --> 0:05:38.119 into this position because they had confidence that he could 0:05:38.200 --> 0:05:39.200 avert a shutdown? 0:05:39.880 --> 0:05:43.000 No, I think it's just more Look the way it 0:05:43.040 --> 0:05:45.839 works in Washington is in this my view is is 0:05:45.839 --> 0:05:48.960 that it's almost like water taking the path of least resistance, 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:52.360 you know, until they get back into political walls. Politicians 0:05:52.360 --> 0:05:54.599 on both sides of the aisle will try and figure 0:05:54.600 --> 0:05:57.000 out flexible ways of moving around. And I think that's 0:05:57.000 --> 0:05:59.520 what Speaker Johnson is trying to do here, is just 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:01.799 trying to figure out a way to keep the momentum 0:06:01.880 --> 0:06:05.320 going without being backed into a political wall. And so 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:08.479 you know, obviously he's got members of his caucus that 0:06:08.560 --> 0:06:10.880 want him to, you know, try and get all these 0:06:10.880 --> 0:06:13.560 policy goals. It will never happen if you have the 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:16.719 Senate or you know, the Democratic control, and obviously President 0:06:16.800 --> 0:06:18.440 Biden would have to sign off on it. So the 0:06:18.440 --> 0:06:21.040 odds of all that happening are almost nil. So how 0:06:21.080 --> 0:06:22.760 do you get out of that, Well, you kick the 0:06:22.760 --> 0:06:25.000 can down the road and you say you, rather than 0:06:25.000 --> 0:06:27.200 making the tough decision today, we're going to make the 0:06:27.240 --> 0:06:30.120 tough decision the next time. Now, I think Spiker Johnson 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:32.360 has a mulligan here because this is the first time 0:06:32.400 --> 0:06:34.560 he's done this and it was such a quick time 0:06:34.600 --> 0:06:38.120 between the election of his speakership to today. I think 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:40.520 after he pursues this latter a cr he can go 0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:43.160 to his caucus and say, look, we tried. There's still 0:06:43.240 --> 0:06:45.120 a lot of ideas out there that we you know, 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:47.640 we have some issues on border security that we're negotiating 0:06:47.640 --> 0:06:49.599 with the White House on. Let's just move this fight 0:06:49.640 --> 0:06:51.920 in either next year or later in December, and then 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:54.280 we'll have our fight then. You know. The other thing 0:06:54.279 --> 0:06:56.520 to just point out is that you know, the election 0:06:56.720 --> 0:06:59.559 that happened in Virginia and in Kentucky and so forth. 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:04.120 This wasn't exactly a good night for you know, in Ohio. 0:07:04.320 --> 0:07:06.440 You know, wasn't a good night for the Republicans. Why 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:08.680 would you, if you're the party of the scene is 0:07:08.760 --> 0:07:11.480 shutting the government down, want to have two bad whammies 0:07:11.800 --> 0:07:13.880 over a series of two weeks. I think it's more 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:15.720 sense to just kick the can again down the road. 0:07:15.800 --> 0:07:16.400 Yeah exactly. 0:07:16.440 --> 0:07:19.400 I mean, maybe Johnson gets the mulligan, but the Republicans 0:07:19.400 --> 0:07:22.400 don't because they already kicked the can once and then 0:07:22.520 --> 0:07:25.480 fired McCarthy for it. He is the one who took 0:07:25.520 --> 0:07:28.160 us through the debt sealing deal in which was way 0:07:28.160 --> 0:07:31.560 back in May. So they've been you know, kind of 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:36.280 stuttering and starting all year long without getting a lot done. 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:39.760 By the way, speaking of getting little done, it seems 0:07:39.800 --> 0:07:42.440 in a recent poll that American voters are more concerned 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:46.440 about border security than they are about you know, Israel, 0:07:46.560 --> 0:07:51.880 Hamas and Ukraine Russia. What's the Biden administration going to 0:07:51.960 --> 0:07:54.240 do about it? I mean, they've arguably had years to 0:07:54.280 --> 0:07:55.360 deal with it and haven't. 0:07:56.280 --> 0:07:58.840 Yeah, you know, so obviously the Ukraine Israel issue is 0:07:58.880 --> 0:08:00.800 something that's a little bit more by partisan at least 0:08:00.800 --> 0:08:03.160 in the Senate, and so I think they're going to 0:08:03.160 --> 0:08:04.840 be trying to work that out. You know, there are 0:08:04.920 --> 0:08:09.160 negotiations going on in the Senate Overboard of Security. President 0:08:09.200 --> 0:08:10.840 by Neven just said a couple of days ago that 0:08:10.880 --> 0:08:13.160 they're open to it. You know, the reason why I 0:08:13.200 --> 0:08:14.800 think he's saying they're open to it is this is 0:08:14.840 --> 0:08:17.240 one of those issues, like you pointed out that you know, 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:19.680 voters may not be too thrilled with his position going 0:08:19.720 --> 0:08:21.920 into an election year, so why wouldn't they do something? 0:08:22.040 --> 0:08:24.880 So you know, but ultimately, what we're telling our clients 0:08:24.960 --> 0:08:26.800 is if you look at what has to happen between 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:29.680 now and the twenty twenty four elections, once we get 0:08:29.680 --> 0:08:32.040 through this funding fight, there's really not a left a 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:34.480 lot left on the table. The debt ceiling isn't all 0:08:34.520 --> 0:08:36.760 that much, you know, isn't there until after the election. 0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:40.199 So there's nothing really scary for markets outside of the 0:08:40.320 --> 0:08:44.120 geopolitical issues. So you know, markets could have some clarity 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:48.120 once this funding in Ukraine and Israel issues goes through, 0:08:48.640 --> 0:08:50.720 because twenty twenty four, a lot more focus is just 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:52.600 going to be running for reelection. 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:53.920 Nathan, thanks so much for joining us. 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:57.400 Pleasure having you as always Nathan Dean from Bloomberg Intelligence, 0:08:57.400 --> 0:09:01.120 where he is senior policy analysts for US government. 0:09:03.120 --> 0:09:06.959 You're listening to the teenth Kenser Live program Bloomberg Markets 0:09:07.000 --> 0:09:10.079 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 0:09:10.160 --> 0:09:13.320 iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:15.360 demand wherever you get your podcasts. 0:09:17.160 --> 0:09:20.720 Maybe mulroy knows. He's the co founder of the Lobo Institute. 0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:23.800 We love to get his insight on what's going on 0:09:24.280 --> 0:09:27.839 in geopolitics, especially in the Middle East because his senior 0:09:27.840 --> 0:09:33.440 fellow at the Middle East Institute. But he is a marine. 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:36.080 What you don't say former marine, do you, Mick? Isn't 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:37.560 it one a marine, always a marine? 0:09:38.280 --> 0:09:40.920 That's right. The Commandade actually passed a rule that once 0:09:41.000 --> 0:09:43.480 a marine is always a marine. So we're just marines, 0:09:43.640 --> 0:09:44.000 all right. 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:47.640 Well, we thank you for your service and congratulate you 0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:51.000 and your your brothers and sisters on this the two 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:55.439 hundred and forty eighth birthday of the United States Marines. Absolutely, 0:09:56.600 --> 0:10:00.600 I want to ask you about, first off, the situation 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:03.920 in the Middle East and how it's developing now, because 0:10:04.440 --> 0:10:05.760 you know on October seventh. 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:06.559 I think. 0:10:09.240 --> 0:10:15.160 Nearly everyone was shocked and horrified by the attacks of 0:10:15.200 --> 0:10:21.800 Hamas on the Israeli people, and it seems that many 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:25.240 people since then, or or or or the voices that 0:10:25.320 --> 0:10:31.360 support the Palestinian cause and even support Hamas have grown 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:34.800 louder and louder. What do you think the national feeling 0:10:34.880 --> 0:10:38.280 is now about this Israeli Palestinian war? 0:10:40.559 --> 0:10:43.360 So I just simply don't understand that people who support 0:10:43.400 --> 0:10:45.600 Hamas that would be the equivalent, at least the way 0:10:45.640 --> 0:10:50.280 I see it as supporting isis essentially deprave terrorist organization 0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:53.800 now being concerned about the Palestinian people. I think is 0:10:54.480 --> 0:10:58.040 is not only understandable, I think it should be the case. 0:10:58.080 --> 0:11:01.200 So I think there is the balance because war is ugly, 0:11:01.280 --> 0:11:05.840 but it has to be fought within certain bounds, and 0:11:05.880 --> 0:11:08.760 we've set that internationally. And I do think, you know, 0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:12.600 everybody's jumping to the conclusion that the Israelis perhaps went 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:15.960 too far. I think that's to be determined, But certainly 0:11:16.000 --> 0:11:19.720 the level of civilian casualties is unacceptable, As Secretary of 0:11:19.720 --> 0:11:23.280 Blincoln said, I would share that. But now we're seeing 0:11:23.400 --> 0:11:25.960 a lot of things done to move civilians to the 0:11:26.000 --> 0:11:29.240 south to get out of the area of the most 0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:32.120 significant fighting, which is important. I think they should be 0:11:32.160 --> 0:11:35.480 set up a safe zone where people can receive food 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:39.120 and water, and it's monitored so that the AMAS fighters 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:41.880 can't hide amongst those folks. But we're going to see 0:11:41.920 --> 0:11:46.959 an increasingly violent fight in Gaza City. It's already started, 0:11:46.960 --> 0:11:50.040 but it's far from over. And that objective of the 0:11:50.080 --> 0:11:53.120 Israeli defense forces is to destroy the moss and that 0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:55.680 can only be done close and personal. 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:58.200 I do want to come back to Secretary blink In in 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:00.199 a moment, but first, Mick would love it if you 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:02.920 could tell us a bit more the perspective that you 0:12:02.960 --> 0:12:05.240 were coming at this from. I see that you were. 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:08.000 You were to the Department of Defense. So you were 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:11.360 the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Defense in the Middle East 0:12:12.000 --> 0:12:14.320 at the in the federal government, and now you're a 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:16.760 senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. Can you just 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:18.760 tell us what that means and like what your role 0:12:18.880 --> 0:12:19.839 is right now? 0:12:21.720 --> 0:12:24.079 So I started for the most part as a practitioner 0:12:24.120 --> 0:12:28.439 of uh you know, irregular warfare warfare in general, as 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:30.640 a marine, and then as a well it's called a 0:12:30.640 --> 0:12:33.160 part military officer in the CIA, which is our version 0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:37.160 of the Special Operations in the Agency. So I spent 0:12:37.280 --> 0:12:39.920 most of my time in conflict zones, as did most 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:42.560 of my colleagues, and I fought many times in urban 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:45.520 environments and it is the by far the worst. It's 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:48.520 very disoriented, it's very violent, and it's you just never 0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:51.000 know what's coming at you. So that's that's what I 0:12:51.080 --> 0:12:54.520 brought into being a policy person for Secretary Madis and 0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:58.120 then Secretary Esper. Was mostly a practitioner's point of view, 0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:01.200 but then I got obviously school up pretty quick on policy, 0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:04.800 so I view it from both lenses when I look 0:13:04.840 --> 0:13:08.000 and analyze these type of conflicts. 0:13:08.280 --> 0:13:10.959 Thanks for that, Yeah, I think I was definitely want 0:13:11.000 --> 0:13:13.240 to know a bit more about your background here. Very impressive. 0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:16.600 So you're also a former coach at USA Boxing in 0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:19.840 the Marines for a few years, so very impressive pedigree. 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:22.800 And wanted to echo Madden thanking you for your service 0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:23.120 as well. 0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:26.840 A few years Marines from nineteen eighty eight twenty fourteen. 0:13:27.040 --> 0:13:30.800 Yeah, that's taller than a few Yeah, so you certainly 0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:32.560 have a lot more to bring to the table than 0:13:32.640 --> 0:13:35.839 we do in this perspective, So I did want to 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:38.640 come back yeah to Secretary Blinken's visit then and what 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:42.360 you made of his time in the Middle East, and 0:13:42.400 --> 0:13:46.320 how his reaction was and where basically the US's role 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:47.880 is in this conflict right now. 0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:51.640 So I think one of the roles that the US 0:13:51.720 --> 0:13:54.400 is attempting to play is to talk about the day 0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:57.679 after this is going to happen. I believe Hamas will 0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:01.000 be destroyed, as they should be. What's going to come next? 0:14:01.120 --> 0:14:04.120 A long term occupation of the IDF of Gaza would 0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:07.320 be unacceptable to many, and I don't think it would 0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:10.200 be in their interest. So what's going to fill the gap? 0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:12.320 I think Secretary of Blinket's been talking to all our 0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:16.320 partners in the region saying, you know, rhetorically, you know, 0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:19.400 having opinions on this is fine, but what are we 0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:21.120 actually going to do? So is there going to be 0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:24.560 an international peacekeeping force? What's going to be the political 0:14:24.600 --> 0:14:28.560 way ahead for the people in Gaza, the Palestinians? What 0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:30.040 are we going to do to make sure that this 0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:33.040 never happens again, both for the sake of Israel, of course, 0:14:33.600 --> 0:14:35.680 and for the sake of the Palestinian people. And I 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:39.480 think everything that I've seen Secretary blink and saying is 0:14:39.560 --> 0:14:41.640 indicating that that is really where he wants to focus 0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:45.840 this how to reduce this human tragedy that's happening in 0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:49.240 Gaza and eliminate Hamas and also look at what's going 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:51.600 to come next to make sure this is it doesn't 0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:52.120 happen again. 0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:54.120 Now, I make a lot of people would say Israel 0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:58.000 has occupied Gaza for quite a long time and continue 0:14:58.000 --> 0:15:01.880 to do to do so through October seventh. They certainly 0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:07.000 have occupied the West Bank in a large part and 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:11.040 haven't honored any of the attempts at a two state solution, 0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:13.520 not under net in Yahoo, right, So is there any 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:16.320 hope that they're going to do that now? Because everyone 0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:18.680 else in the world backs a two state solution, even 0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:21.640 the countries like the US that back Israel and send 0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:26.000 Israel billions of dollars every year, and yet the Israelis 0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:30.320 refused to allow the Palestinians to have their own state. 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:34.400 And the only way I could see this ever working 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:36.480 where you don't have this happen again and again is 0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:41.000 a two state solution. They have essentially to your point, 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:44.440 they have direct access into the West Bank and therefore 0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:48.720 occupy it. They control in and out access in Gaza. 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:50.600 They would say they didn't occupy it, which is one 0:15:50.640 --> 0:15:52.280 of the reasons why they didn't know what was going. 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:55.480 On on settlements. They have checkpoints, they absolutely do. 0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:59.240 Yes, I'm not disagreeing with you, but they would say 0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:01.760 that they want to have troops on the ground now 0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:04.960 because they don't want hamas to get reconstituted. I think 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:07.960 that would be a bad idea. That's why I think 0:16:08.400 --> 0:16:10.680 Secretary of blancoln State Department of the White House is 0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:15.840 rightfully talking about, well, what's the alternative is AI is 0:16:15.880 --> 0:16:19.760 a caretaker type group, an international peacekeeping force that could 0:16:19.760 --> 0:16:23.320 stay there until the Palestinian people select a government that 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:27.520 sets up its security, it sets up its basic life support, 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:31.280 and then of course there should be large investments from 0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:33.680 a lot of the wealthy countries in the region and 0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:36.760 out of the region that help rebuild Goza and turn 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:39.520 it into a place that has a future, including an 0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:42.480 economic one. And I think that's what the US is 0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:44.800 pushing now, and I think they should be because this 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:47.880 situation I don't see changing unless there is a two 0:16:47.880 --> 0:16:52.480 state solution in which the international community is heavily involved 0:16:52.520 --> 0:16:53.520 in setting up. 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:56.280 Are we losing sight of what's going on in Ukraine 0:16:56.920 --> 0:16:59.920 through all this, because if the Russians win, they're push 0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:01.240 up into NATO borders. 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:05.879 They absolutely are. And the fights still raging on in Ukraine, 0:17:05.920 --> 0:17:07.960 even though it's not the first thing on the news, 0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:11.159 it's still happening, and they are making incremental gains. And 0:17:11.200 --> 0:17:13.240 it's really clear now that a lot of the weapons 0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:17.200 systems that we provided them recently, especially the attackers the 0:17:17.240 --> 0:17:21.480 long range artillery system, is having a major effect on 0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:24.960 the Russian's ability to resupply both its front line troops 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:27.960 and they can reach anywhere in Ukraine now with those systems, 0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:31.200 so there's no place off limits, including the Crimean peninsula, 0:17:31.320 --> 0:17:34.040 so that is super important. It's also really important that 0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:38.480 we get more funding to them to purchase and buy 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:41.399 ammunition because as this gets into the winter, it's going 0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:44.240 to be somewhat of a war of attrition, particularly on 0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:47.160 the logistical side, and the US needs to help them 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:54.040 keep up with a much larger, much broader enemy in Russia. 0:17:54.119 --> 0:17:55.920 All right, Nick, thanks so much for joining us. 0:17:56.400 --> 0:18:00.240 I always love talking to you and I really appreciate you, 0:18:00.280 --> 0:18:02.560 know your service. I think, especially at times like this, 0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:06.159 we should all be thankful that marines like yourself and 0:18:06.440 --> 0:18:09.240 soldiers that defend the freedom of America are doing what 0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:11.920 they do so that we can sleep safely. Mick Malroy 0:18:11.960 --> 0:18:14.399 there is co founder of the Lobo Institute and a 0:18:14.440 --> 0:18:16.919 senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute. 0:18:17.200 --> 0:18:20.800 You're listening to the tape Catcher live program Bloomberg Markets 0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:24.280 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune 0:18:24.320 --> 0:18:27.280 in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:18:27.320 --> 0:18:30.119 You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 0:18:30.160 --> 0:18:35.200 flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:18:36.200 --> 0:18:38.840 Matt Miller here with Molly Smith and the Bloomberg Interactive 0:18:38.840 --> 0:18:39.600 Brokers Studio. 0:18:39.880 --> 0:18:41.359 I want to bring in Margie Patel. 0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:44.800 She is a senior portfolio manager at all Spring Global 0:18:44.880 --> 0:18:48.000 Investments and we love to talk to her because she 0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:51.760 has a great view of the stock market and also of. 0:18:51.680 --> 0:18:52.399 The bond market. 0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:55.160 Right. She was twice nominated Morning Stars Fixed Income Manager 0:18:55.600 --> 0:18:56.160 of the Year. 0:18:56.400 --> 0:18:58.840 Yeah, that's right, and Margy is nice to talk to 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:02.159 you again to talk when I covered the credit markets, 0:19:02.160 --> 0:19:03.960 I think you were back at Wells Fargo at the time, 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:04.840 so good to see you. 0:19:07.080 --> 0:19:11.000 Well, let's ask let's get your take on what happened yesterday, Margie, 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:15.080 and what we've seen in yields and how it's affecting stocks. 0:19:15.119 --> 0:19:18.919 I mean after the auction, I mean it didn't go wrong, 0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:23.280 but it didn't go great. Right yesterday of the thirty years, 0:19:24.200 --> 0:19:28.199 we saw the yields spike up and then the stock 0:19:28.280 --> 0:19:32.880 market sell off. I think Powell kind of confirmed what 0:19:32.920 --> 0:19:35.360 the market was thinking that maybe they're not quite done yet. 0:19:35.400 --> 0:19:36.080 How do you see it? 0:19:37.920 --> 0:19:40.439 Well, I think the Fed is saying a lot of 0:19:40.440 --> 0:19:44.040 different things because in their whole tightening program of the 0:19:44.160 --> 0:19:46.399 last year and a half, nothing is real had played 0:19:46.400 --> 0:19:49.200 out the way they thought according to their playbook. As 0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:52.520 far as raising rates, we haven't seen economy slow down. 0:19:52.600 --> 0:19:56.240 We actually had a very nice score just reported probably 0:19:56.320 --> 0:19:59.680