WEBVTT - Generative AI Is Not A Real Industry

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<v Speaker 1>Au Zone Media.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello and welcome to Better Offline. I'm your host ed zitron.

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<v Speaker 2>Last part I really laid down how bad things are

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<v Speaker 2>for open Ai, how bad a company they are, how

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<v Speaker 2>they spent nine billion dollars to lose five billion dollars,

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<v Speaker 2>how bad things look. But open Ai they have users.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean the users lose the money. Every single user

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<v Speaker 2>paying or not loses the money. They can only survive

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<v Speaker 2>if they're given more money. They will literally die if

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<v Speaker 2>not given more venture capital money. And that really bothers me,

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<v Speaker 2>And that bothers me a great deal. Listen to the

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<v Speaker 2>episode again if you want to really understand why. But

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<v Speaker 2>let's start this one with a very very simple question.

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<v Speaker 2>Is generative AI a real industry? Look, the large language

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<v Speaker 2>model paradigm is yet to produce a successful mass market product,

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<v Speaker 2>and no, large language models are not a success, nor

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<v Speaker 2>are they mass market. I know you're gonna say chat

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<v Speaker 2>GPT is huge. We've already been through that. I just

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<v Speaker 2>talked about that. But surely, surely, right like, it wouldn't

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<v Speaker 2>just be open Ai, right like, we've been through this.

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<v Speaker 2>But if generative AI was a real industry, there'd be

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<v Speaker 2>multiple other players with massive customer bases as a result

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<v Speaker 2>of how revolutionary it was, right, like at least close, right,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe like half the size, a quarter of the size,

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<v Speaker 2>right right, wrong, wrong, so wrong, so very wrong, so

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<v Speaker 2>fucking wrong. It boils my blood. It makes me scared

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<v Speaker 2>for the future, for the market for Silicon Valley. The

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<v Speaker 2>venture capitalists are so fucking wrong, and so are the hyperscalers. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's look at some estimated numbers that I got from

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<v Speaker 2>data intelligence firm Center Tower, and that's referring to these

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<v Speaker 2>monthly active users on apps and similar web which is

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<v Speaker 2>just unique monthly active visitors to websites. And this is

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<v Speaker 2>for the biggest players in AI in January twenty twenty five.

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<v Speaker 2>And I must be clear, the following really fucked me

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<v Speaker 2>up a little. So open AI's chatgpt had three hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and thirty nine million active users on chat GPT's app

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<v Speaker 2>and two hundred and forty six million unique monthly visitors

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<v Speaker 2>to chatgpt dot com in January twenty twenty five. Pretty good, right,

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<v Speaker 2>One would assume that everybody else, especially the hyperscalers, they'd

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<v Speaker 2>be pretty close behind. Right, They've got way more money,

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<v Speaker 2>They've got a ton of advertising, and one would be

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<v Speaker 2>wrong Google Gemini. Google's Gemini had a pathetic eighteen million

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<v Speaker 2>monthly active users on the Gemini app and a mere

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<v Speaker 2>forty seven point three million unique monthly users on their website.

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<v Speaker 2>For COMPARISONCNN dot com has over one hundred and fifty

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<v Speaker 2>million unique monthly visitors and did not require purchasing billions

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<v Speaker 2>of dollars of GPUs. Nevertheless, though, Microsoft, who funds open Ai,

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<v Speaker 2>they wouldn't have blown this right. They wouldn't have got

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<v Speaker 2>a tiny amount of US right. Wrong, so very wrong.

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<v Speaker 2>Microsoft Copilot had an embarrassing eleven million monthly active users

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<v Speaker 2>on the Copilot app and fifteen point six million unique

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<v Speaker 2>monthly users visitors. I mean to copilot dot Microsoft dot com.

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<v Speaker 2>They had a fucking Super Bowl commercial a year ago. Man,

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<v Speaker 2>what the hell? These are terrible numbers for a company

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<v Speaker 2>with a market capitalization of three trillion dollars that spent

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<v Speaker 2>over seventy five billion dollars on capital expenditures in twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty four. But you know what, maybe it's just that

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<v Speaker 2>big tech hasn't worked it out. The plucky start of

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<v Speaker 2>the Silicon Valley must have, right. I mean, we've all

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<v Speaker 2>heard about perplexity. They seem to be giving away pro

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<v Speaker 2>accounts all the time. They're pretty big, right, they must

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<v Speaker 2>be wrong. They had an abominable eight million monthly active

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<v Speaker 2>users on their app in January and a poultry ten

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<v Speaker 2>point six million unique monthly visitors to perplexity dot ai.

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<v Speaker 2>This company's raised six hundred and sixty five million dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>They have a multi billion dollar valuation. This is absolutely

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<v Speaker 2>fucking pathetic. What are we doing here? But you know,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe I'm just being a sour pus. Maybe I'm just

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<v Speaker 2>being just being a hater. You know, I sit in

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<v Speaker 2>my hates thrown and I hate it. I'm like, ooh,

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<v Speaker 2>I hate the company so much. Right, that's it. It's bias. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 2>there's one hulking Juggernau I've been leaving out and I

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<v Speaker 2>would never ever ever leave them out. Because Anthropic has

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<v Speaker 2>raised fourteen point seven billion dollars, one would assume with

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<v Speaker 2>all this money, with all of the press attention, all

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<v Speaker 2>of the people saying that Warrio Ami Day, sorry, Dario

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<v Speaker 2>Ami Day, will have Agi in twenty twenty seven around there, right,

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<v Speaker 2>they'd be huge. They must be huge. They must be huge,

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<v Speaker 2>right right? Right then, So flipping wrong. Anthropics Claude had

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<v Speaker 2>I a shit you not two million monthly active users

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<v Speaker 2>on the claud app and eight point two million unique

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<v Speaker 2>monthly visitors the Claude the AI and that's the web

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<v Speaker 2>based version of their app. These numbers are absolutely abominable.

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<v Speaker 2>They're trash, they're garbage. Anyone's saying that Anthropic as a

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<v Speaker 2>real product is talking out of their asshole. I'll get

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<v Speaker 2>to API calls later, don't you worry. But it's time

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<v Speaker 2>to wake up and stop yammering about these companies like

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<v Speaker 2>they're building the future or have any real product market fit.

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<v Speaker 2>What a goddamn joke. I am furious. Getting these numbers

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<v Speaker 2>pissed me off so much. I have had these chonder

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<v Speaker 2>fucks telling me, oh Ed, you have no idea how

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<v Speaker 2>big this is? Oh Ed, They're tiny. This is so small.

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<v Speaker 2>I know. I said it'd be calm. I said it'd

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<v Speaker 2>be calm. But when you spend two years having people

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<v Speaker 2>calling you a hater and a cynic at, a pessimist

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<v Speaker 2>and a pig and a dog and they spray you

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<v Speaker 2>at their hoses, you get a little angry about this stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>And also, why is nobody I'm a pr guy who

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<v Speaker 2>does a podcast and a newslre why am I the

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<v Speaker 2>person to say it? But what's really funny is that

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<v Speaker 2>the recently emerged deep Seak had twenty seven million monthly

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<v Speaker 2>active users on the deep seak Act app and seventy

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<v Speaker 2>nine point nine million unique monthly visitors to deepseak dot

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<v Speaker 2>com in January. This figure, by the way, doesn't capture

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<v Speaker 2>deep Seak's China based users, who at least on mobile

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<v Speaker 2>access the app through a variety of different marketplaces. From

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<v Speaker 2>what I can tell, the deep Seak Act app I

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<v Speaker 2>keep speaking like Kathy, I guess, but I'm gonna keep

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<v Speaker 2>this going. We don't need to edit that the app

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<v Speaker 2>has nearly ten million downloads on the Vivo Store, which

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<v Speaker 2>is just one of the different Android app marketplaces serving

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<v Speaker 2>mainline China. It's not even one of the biggest. But

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<v Speaker 2>for the sake of simplicity, assume that all of these

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<v Speaker 2>numbers refer to those outside of China, where most, if

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<v Speaker 2>not all, of the Western made chatbots are blocked by

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<v Speaker 2>the Great Firewall. But let me put this all into perspective.

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<v Speaker 2>The entire combined monthly active users of Microsoft Copilot, Claude Gemini,

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<v Speaker 2>Deep Seek, and it perplexitis apps amount to sixty six

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<v Speaker 2>million monthly active users, or nineteen point four to seven

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<v Speaker 2>percent of the entire monthly active users of chat GPT's

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<v Speaker 2>mobile app. Web traffic slightly improves things, I say sarcastically,

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<v Speaker 2>with one hundred and sixty one million unique monthly visitors

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<v Speaker 2>that visited the websites for Copilot, Claude, Gemini, Deep Seek,

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<v Speaker 2>and Perplexity making up sixty five point sixty nine percent

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<v Speaker 2>of all the traffic that went to chatgpt dot com. However,

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<v Speaker 2>I'd argue that including deep Seek vastly overinflates these numbers.

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<v Speaker 2>They're an outlier, and they're also relatively new, and they've

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<v Speaker 2>enjoyed a big moment in the media, so we can

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<v Speaker 2>leave them out for a second. Without deep Sea, Copilot, Claude, Gemini,

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<v Speaker 2>and Perplexity made up a total of thirty nine million

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<v Speaker 2>monthly active users across their apps, and a grand total

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<v Speaker 2>of eighty one point seven million unique monthly visitors Without

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<v Speaker 2>chat gpt, it appears that the entire general IVAI app

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<v Speaker 2>market is a little more than half the size of

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<v Speaker 2>Pokemon Goo its peak, which had around one hundred and

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<v Speaker 2>forty seven million monthly active users. Though this number is

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<v Speaker 2>kind of hard to chase down. I've heard two hundred million. Nevertheless,

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<v Speaker 2>even if it was one hundred million, it would still

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<v Speaker 2>be more. And while one can say I missed a

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<v Speaker 2>few apps xais, Grock and Mason's rufirst character Ai, there

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<v Speaker 2>isn't really a chance in hell they cover the shortfall.

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<v Speaker 2>These numbers aren't simply pissed poor. They're a sign that

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<v Speaker 2>the market for general ivai is incredibly small, and based

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<v Speaker 2>on the fact that every single one of these apps

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<v Speaker 2>only loses money, they're actively harmful to their respective investors

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<v Speaker 2>or owners. I do not think this is a real industry,

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<v Speaker 2>and I believe that if we pulled the plug on

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<v Speaker 2>the venture capital aspect tomorrow, it would die. It would

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<v Speaker 2>die within a month, maybe two. But let's talk about

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<v Speaker 2>API course, and this is when companies plug their apps

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<v Speaker 2>into open AIS models, anthropics models, Google's models, any company's

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<v Speaker 2>models to power some sort of supposedly amazing Generalivai feature.

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<v Speaker 2>And the counter I hear a lot is that these

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<v Speaker 2>API calls are a kind of hidden adoption, that there's

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<v Speaker 2>this massive swell of engaged, happy customers using Genera ivai.

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<v Speaker 2>They're just not using it on any of the major apps,

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<v Speaker 2>and the connection to these models that that's the real

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<v Speaker 2>success story here, because people are adopting general ivai, they're

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<v Speaker 2>just doing it through other apps. This isn't the case.

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<v Speaker 2>Open Ai, as I've established, is the largest player in

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<v Speaker 2>general ivai, making more revenue roughly four billion dollars in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty four, though they lost five billion dollars after

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<v Speaker 2>revenue again open ai lost. They spent nine billion dollars

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<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty four to lose five billion dollars. Anyway,

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<v Speaker 2>they still made more than everyone else in every other

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<v Speaker 2>private AI company. The closest I can get to an

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<v Speaker 2>estimate on how many actual developers integrate their applications through

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<v Speaker 2>open Ai is a statement from open ai from October

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty four's dev Day, where they said they had

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<v Speaker 2>over three million developers building apps using open AI's models.

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<v Speaker 2>And as I've discussed in the past, open AI's revenue

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<v Speaker 2>is heavily weighted towards its subscription business, with licensing access

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<v Speaker 2>to its models like GPT four to O making up

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<v Speaker 2>less than thirty percent around a billion dollars of their revenue,

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<v Speaker 2>and subscriptions to their premium products like chech, GPD plus teams, business,

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<v Speaker 2>pro government and so on make up the majority, around

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<v Speaker 2>three billion dollars in twenty twenty four. My argument's fairly simple.

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<v Speaker 2>Open ai is the most well known player in GENERITIAI,

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<v Speaker 2>and thus we can extrapolate from it to draw conclusions

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<v Speaker 2>about the wider industry. In the event that there was

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<v Speaker 2>a huge, meaningful industry integrating generative AI into distinct products

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<v Speaker 2>with mass market consumer adoption, open AI's API business would

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<v Speaker 2>be doing far, far more revenue. But let's get a

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<v Speaker 2>little more specific about what an API call is. When

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<v Speaker 2>a business plugs open AI's models or any other GENERATIVEAI

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<v Speaker 2>companies models into their apps and the customer triggers one,

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<v Speaker 2>such as just asking the app to summarize an email,

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<v Speaker 2>open ai charges the business both for the prompt, which

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<v Speaker 2>is the input, and the result, which is the output.

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<v Speaker 2>As a result, where weekly active users might be indicative

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<v Speaker 2>of attention to open AI's products, API calls are farm

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<v Speaker 2>more more indicative consumer and enterprise adoption and usage. In fact,

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<v Speaker 2>to be clear, I acknowledge that there are a lot,

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<v Speaker 2>a non specific amount, but a fair amount of app

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<v Speaker 2>developers and companies adopting GENERATIVEAI. However, judging on the revenue

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<v Speaker 2>both from open AI's developer focused business and the lack

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<v Speaker 2>of any real revenue for any business integrating GENERATIVAI, I

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<v Speaker 2>hypothesize that customers, which include developers integrating open AI's models

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<v Speaker 2>into both consumer facing apps and enterprise focused apps, are

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<v Speaker 2>not actually using these features that much. I should add

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<v Speaker 2>the open ai makes about two hundred million dollars a

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<v Speaker 2>year selling their models through Microsoft, meaning that their API

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<v Speaker 2>business may be as small as eight hundred million dollars. Again,

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<v Speaker 2>this is not profit, its revenue. Before we go forward,

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<v Speaker 2>there is also an alternative open ai is charging way, way,

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<v Speaker 2>way less for their models than they should, which is

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<v Speaker 2>an argument I made in the subprime AI crisis last year.

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<v Speaker 2>But accepting this argument means that at some point open

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<v Speaker 2>ai will have to become profitable, which they've shown no

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<v Speaker 2>signs of doing so, or they're going to have to

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<v Speaker 2>charge the action costs of running their unprofitable models. Do

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<v Speaker 2>you not see the problem there? If they have to

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<v Speaker 2>raise all the prices for this thing that people aren't

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<v Speaker 2>really using, why would they keep it? But you're wondering,

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<v Speaker 2>probably how bad is this for anthropic It's pretty disastrous.

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<v Speaker 2>The Information reported recently that Anthropic was projected, and I

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<v Speaker 2>should be clear this means made up, that they will

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<v Speaker 2>make at least twelve billion dollars in revenue in twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty seven, despite the fact they only made around nine

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<v Speaker 2>hundred million dollars in twenty twenty four and lost five

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<v Speaker 2>point six billion dollars. Somehow, Anthropic is currently raising two

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<v Speaker 2>billion dollars at a sixty billion dollar valuation for a

0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:39.280
<v Speaker 2>business that loses billions of dollars a year, with an

0:11:39.280 --> 0:11:41.800
<v Speaker 2>app within in store base of two million people and

0:11:41.840 --> 0:11:44.120
<v Speaker 2>a web present smaller than that of a niche hobbyist

0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:48.360
<v Speaker 2>news outlet. The Information also adds and CNBC reports as

0:11:48.400 --> 0:11:50.760
<v Speaker 2>well that sixty to seventy five percent of that revenue

0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:53.360
<v Speaker 2>came from API course, though this number is from September

0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:57.000
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty four. So what they're making most of their

0:11:57.040 --> 0:11:59.120
<v Speaker 2>money from people integrating it, and they're making what a

0:11:59.120 --> 0:12:02.079
<v Speaker 2>few hundred million dollar dollars and it costs them billions

0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:04.840
<v Speaker 2>of dollars to serve this small customer base. This company

0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:08.120
<v Speaker 2>is not worth sixty billion dollars. Anthropic has raised fourteen

0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:11.040
<v Speaker 2>point seven billion dollars to create an also ran large

0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:14.680
<v Speaker 2>language model company that some people like more than open Ai,

0:12:14.760 --> 0:12:17.880
<v Speaker 2>with a competing consumer facing large language model called Claude

0:12:17.920 --> 0:12:19.800
<v Speaker 2>that has an install base of maybe two percent of

0:12:19.800 --> 0:12:22.240
<v Speaker 2>the five free to play games made by Clash of

0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:25.560
<v Speaker 2>Clans develop a super cell. Anthropic, much like open Ai,

0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:28.760
<v Speaker 2>has categorically failed to productize its large language model, but

0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:33.080
<v Speaker 2>the only product it appears to have pushed being computer use,

0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:36.920
<v Speaker 2>which is like operator by open Ai, and it's similarly useless,

0:12:36.960 --> 0:12:39.520
<v Speaker 2>and it can sometimes successfully do in minutes what would

0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:42.599
<v Speaker 2>only take you a few seconds with your hands. Anthropic,

0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:46.280
<v Speaker 2>like OpenAI, also has no mote. While they have, they've

0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:48.720
<v Speaker 2>got kind of chain of thought reasoning in their models

0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:51.840
<v Speaker 2>that has been, as I mentioned, commoditized by deep Seek.

0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:56.160
<v Speaker 2>Its models, again like OpenAI, are totally unprofitable. They're unsustainable

0:12:56.160 --> 0:12:59.080
<v Speaker 2>and heavily dependent on training data that has either run

0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:02.920
<v Speaker 2>out or is running out. Anthropic CEO Dario ami Day

0:13:02.960 --> 0:13:05.360
<v Speaker 2>is also a sleazy con man who, like Sam Mortmon,

0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:08.880
<v Speaker 2>continually promises that his company's AI systems will become powerful

0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:11.320
<v Speaker 2>and autonomous in a way that they've never shown they

0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:14.520
<v Speaker 2>have any possibility of becoming. He loves talking about AGI.

0:13:14.600 --> 0:13:16.960
<v Speaker 2>He's just like Sam Mortmon, He's just as big a conman.

0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:20.280
<v Speaker 2>Fuck Dario ama Day. Any investor in Anthropic needs to

0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:23.520
<v Speaker 2>seriously consider what it is they're investing in. Anthropic has,

0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:26.240
<v Speaker 2>other than iterating on its large language model, claud shown

0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:30.640
<v Speaker 2>little fundamental differentiation from the rest of the industry. Anthropics business, again,

0:13:30.720 --> 0:13:33.600
<v Speaker 2>like OpenAI, is entirely propped up by venture capital and

0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:36.679
<v Speaker 2>hyperscalar dollars Google and Amazon in this case, and without

0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:40.400
<v Speaker 2>them it would absolutely die almost immediately because they have

0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:46.360
<v Speaker 2>only ever lost money. Anthropics products are both unpopular and commoditized,

0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:49.320
<v Speaker 2>and they lost five point six billion dollars last year.

0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:52.880
<v Speaker 2>Stop dancing around this fact, stop it. Stop doing this.

0:13:52.920 --> 0:13:54.440
<v Speaker 2>We need to stop. If you remember of the media

0:13:54.480 --> 0:13:56.199
<v Speaker 2>writing about this, listening to this, I need you to

0:13:56.280 --> 0:14:01.439
<v Speaker 2>fucking stop. We by not reporting this every article, it's

0:14:01.520 --> 0:14:05.000
<v Speaker 2>journalistic malpractice. These companies will die. How can you not

0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:19.120
<v Speaker 2>see this? Let's talk about perplexity, and my general view

0:14:19.120 --> 0:14:22.120
<v Speaker 2>on perplexity is who gives a shit? Who cares perplexity?

0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:24.400
<v Speaker 2>A company valued at nine billion dollars towards the end

0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:26.840
<v Speaker 2>of twenty twenty four has eight million people a month

0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:29.320
<v Speaker 2>using its app, but the Financial Times reporting that they

0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:32.360
<v Speaker 2>have a grand total of fifteen million monthly active users

0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:36.960
<v Speaker 2>for an unprofitable search engine. Perplexity, like every Generativai company,

0:14:37.040 --> 0:14:40.520
<v Speaker 2>only ever loses money, and its product, Generaivai powered search

0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:43.720
<v Speaker 2>is so commoditized that it's actually remarkable that they still exist.

0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:47.320
<v Speaker 2>I mean, they're bigger than Anthropic. That's crazy. Other than

0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:49.560
<v Speaker 2>the slick design, there's little to be excited about here,

0:14:49.680 --> 0:14:52.880
<v Speaker 2>and eight million monthly active users is pathetic. It's embarrassing,

0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:55.360
<v Speaker 2>deeply embarrassing for a company with the majority of its

0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:59.120
<v Speaker 2>users on mobile aravins. Rivinus is a desperate man with

0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:02.000
<v Speaker 2>questionable intent that made a half hearted attempt to merge

0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:04.600
<v Speaker 2>with TikTok in January. Really funny bother, It's like, hey,

0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:07.000
<v Speaker 2>I have a really shitty company that loses a bunch

0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:09.200
<v Speaker 2>of money. Can I merge with your beloved app for

0:15:09.240 --> 0:15:12.040
<v Speaker 2>some reason? Like you need to do this. Also, their

0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:14.520
<v Speaker 2>product rips off journalists. By the way, they had a

0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:16.880
<v Speaker 2>whole thing for so they were just ripping fucking content.

0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:19.960
<v Speaker 2>Did it with Business Insider two. It's disgusting, But any

0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.720
<v Speaker 2>investor in Perplexity needs to ask themselves, what is it

0:15:22.760 --> 0:15:26.240
<v Speaker 2>I'm investing in an unprofitable search engine, an unprofitable large

0:15:26.320 --> 0:15:28.880
<v Speaker 2>language model company, A company that has such poor adoption

0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:30.640
<v Speaker 2>of its product that was prepared to become the shell

0:15:30.680 --> 0:15:34.280
<v Speaker 2>corporation for TikTok. Hmmm, Personally, I'd be concerned about the

0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:37.000
<v Speaker 2>bullshit numbers they keep making up. The information reported to

0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:39.000
<v Speaker 2>Perplexity said they'd make one hundred and twenty seven million

0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:41.320
<v Speaker 2>dollars in twenty twenty five and six hundred and fifty

0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:44.120
<v Speaker 2>six million dollars in twenty twenty six. How much money

0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:46.480
<v Speaker 2>did it make in twenty twenty four just over fifty

0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:48.440
<v Speaker 2>six million dollars. Is it profitable?

0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:48.800
<v Speaker 1>Fuck?

0:15:48.880 --> 0:15:52.680
<v Speaker 2>No, Perplexiti's product is commoditized, and they make less than

0:15:52.680 --> 0:15:54.400
<v Speaker 2>a quarter of the revenue of the baseball team in

0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:57.080
<v Speaker 2>the Oakland Athletics in twenty twenty four at least, though

0:15:57.080 --> 0:15:59.880
<v Speaker 2>I should add the Perplexity's app is marginally more popular.

0:16:01.000 --> 0:16:03.640
<v Speaker 2>It really is time to stop humoring these companies, though.

0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.040
<v Speaker 2>It's time to stop writing about them like their gifted children.

0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:10.560
<v Speaker 2>They are horrible. They are abominations of startups. They are

0:16:10.600 --> 0:16:15.320
<v Speaker 2>abominations of capitalism, which is already fairly abominable. I'm really

0:16:15.360 --> 0:16:18.600
<v Speaker 2>just disgusted reading these numbers. Jokeified me one hundred times.

0:16:18.720 --> 0:16:20.600
<v Speaker 2>I didn't even need to put on the joker makeup.

0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:23.400
<v Speaker 2>It just appeared on my skin naturally. I'm currently high

0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:27.280
<v Speaker 2>kicking around this sound cube I record everything in. But

0:16:27.440 --> 0:16:30.560
<v Speaker 2>really all of this is far more apocalyptic for the hyperscalers.

0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:33.760
<v Speaker 2>The Wall Street Journal reports that Microsoft intends to spend

0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:36.840
<v Speaker 2>ninety three point seven billion dollars in capital expenditures in

0:16:36.880 --> 0:16:40.040
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty five, or roughly eighty five hundred and eighteen

0:16:40.160 --> 0:16:42.600
<v Speaker 2>dollars per monthly active user of the co Pilot app

0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:45.400
<v Speaker 2>in January twenty twenty five. Google is planning to spend

0:16:45.440 --> 0:16:48.360
<v Speaker 2>seventy five billion dollars on capital expenditures in twenty twenty five,

0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:51.040
<v Speaker 2>or roughly foury one hundred and sixty seven per monthly

0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:54.600
<v Speaker 2>active user of the Gemini app in January twenty twenty five.

0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:57.640
<v Speaker 2>Sundhapashai wants Gemini to be used by five hundred million

0:16:57.640 --> 0:16:59.840
<v Speaker 2>people before the end of twenty twenty five, and number

0:16:59.880 --> 0:17:02.320
<v Speaker 2>five so unrealistic that someone at Google should be fired,

0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:05.320
<v Speaker 2>and that someone is sunned up as shy. The fact

0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:07.399
<v Speaker 2>of the matter is that if Google and Microsoft can't

0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:10.720
<v Speaker 2>make generative AI apps work, if they can't get meaningful

0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:14.800
<v Speaker 2>consumer penetration. This entire industry is screwed. There really are

0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:17.240
<v Speaker 2>no optimistic ways to look at these numbers, and yes

0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:21.119
<v Speaker 2>I'm repeating myself. Microsoft Copilot had eleven million monthly active

0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:23.920
<v Speaker 2>users on the Copilot app and fifteen point six million

0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:27.320
<v Speaker 2>unique monthly visitors the coopilot dot Microsoft dot com. Google

0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:30.080
<v Speaker 2>Gemini had eighty million monthly active users on the Gemini

0:17:30.119 --> 0:17:33.040
<v Speaker 2>app and forty seven point three million unique monthly users

0:17:33.640 --> 0:17:38.119
<v Speaker 2>visitors even to their website. These are utterly pathetic considering

0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:42.080
<v Speaker 2>Microsoft and Google scale, especially given the latters complete dominance

0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:44.919
<v Speaker 2>over Google Search and web search in general, and the

0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:48.800
<v Speaker 2>ability to funnel customers to Gemini for millions, perhaps billions,

0:17:49.119 --> 0:17:51.280
<v Speaker 2>Google is the first page that they see when they

0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:55.440
<v Speaker 2>open a web browser. Google should be owning this by now. Look,

0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.040
<v Speaker 2>forty seven point three million unique monthly visitors is a

0:17:58.040 --> 0:18:00.320
<v Speaker 2>lot of people, But considering that Google spent five fifty

0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:04.520
<v Speaker 2>two zero point five four billion dollars in capital expenditures

0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:06.720
<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty four, it's hard to see whether return

0:18:06.800 --> 0:18:09.720
<v Speaker 2>is or even whether a tone could be. Google, like

0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:12.760
<v Speaker 2>most companies, does not break out revenue from AI. Just

0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:14.840
<v Speaker 2>to be clear, if they were doing well, they would,

0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:17.040
<v Speaker 2>though they do love to say stuff like a strong

0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:19.480
<v Speaker 2>quarter was driven by our leadership in AI and momentum

0:18:19.480 --> 0:18:22.800
<v Speaker 2>across the business, which means nothing. By the way that

0:18:23.320 --> 0:18:25.840
<v Speaker 2>shit is made for journalisticy and go oh, that means

0:18:25.840 --> 0:18:28.200
<v Speaker 2>they're making money in AI. When a company's making money

0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:31.720
<v Speaker 2>in something, they'll tell you directly. And as a result

0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:34.439
<v Speaker 2>of its unwillingness to share hard numbers, all we have

0:18:34.560 --> 0:18:36.679
<v Speaker 2>to look at are numbers like those that received from

0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:39.280
<v Speaker 2>similar webons Centre Tower, and it's fair to suggest that

0:18:39.359 --> 0:18:42.800
<v Speaker 2>Gemini and its associated products have been a complete flop.

0:18:43.359 --> 0:18:46.520
<v Speaker 2>We're still Google spent one hundred and twenty seven point

0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:49.760
<v Speaker 2>five four billion dollars in capital expenditures in twenty twenty

0:18:49.760 --> 0:18:52.520
<v Speaker 2>three and twenty twenty four, combined with an estimated seventy

0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:54.960
<v Speaker 2>five billion like I said for twenty twenty five, what

0:18:55.000 --> 0:18:58.160
<v Speaker 2>the fuck is going on? Yes, Google is likely making

0:18:58.160 --> 0:19:01.239
<v Speaker 2>revenue from people running generally AIM and Google Cloud, and

0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:04.480
<v Speaker 2>yes they're likely making money from forcing AI onto Google

0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:07.200
<v Speaker 2>Workspace customers by raising the prices and saying you get

0:19:07.200 --> 0:19:11.240
<v Speaker 2>this for quote free. But Google, like every single other

0:19:11.320 --> 0:19:14.399
<v Speaker 2>general IVAI company, is losing money on every single general

0:19:14.440 --> 0:19:17.520
<v Speaker 2>IVAI prompt, and based on these monthly active user numbers,

0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:21.320
<v Speaker 2>nobody really cares about Gemini at all. Actually, I take

0:19:21.359 --> 0:19:24.520
<v Speaker 2>that back. Some people care about Gemini. Not that many,

0:19:24.560 --> 0:19:26.959
<v Speaker 2>but some. And it's far more fair to say that

0:19:27.000 --> 0:19:30.080
<v Speaker 2>nobody cares about Microsoft Copilot, despite Microsoft shoving it in

0:19:30.119 --> 0:19:33.359
<v Speaker 2>every corner of our lives. Eleven million monthly active users

0:19:33.400 --> 0:19:36.159
<v Speaker 2>for its unprofitable, heavily commoditized large language model app is

0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:38.600
<v Speaker 2>a joke, as are the fifteen point six million monthly

0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:41.320
<v Speaker 2>active users for its web presents, probably because it does

0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:43.800
<v Speaker 2>exactly the same shit that every other LMM does, and

0:19:43.800 --> 0:19:46.080
<v Speaker 2>if one knows it's powered by chet GPT, it's just

0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:52.160
<v Speaker 2>it's remarkable. Microsoft's copil app isn't just unpopular, it's irrelevant.

0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:55.960
<v Speaker 2>For comparison, Microsoft Teams has, according to a post for

0:19:56.119 --> 0:19:58.440
<v Speaker 2>Microsoft from the end of twenty twenty three, over three

0:19:58.520 --> 0:20:02.160
<v Speaker 2>hundred and twenty million months active users. That's more than

0:20:02.200 --> 0:20:04.399
<v Speaker 2>ten times the amount of monthly active users of the

0:20:04.480 --> 0:20:07.680
<v Speaker 2>Copilot app in January twenty twenty five, and the Copilot

0:20:07.680 --> 0:20:13.120
<v Speaker 2>website combined, and unlike Copilot teams, makes Microsoft money now.

0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:15.360
<v Speaker 2>I obviously don't have the numbers on people that accidentally

0:20:15.359 --> 0:20:18.200
<v Speaker 2>click the Copilot button in Microsoft Office or bing dot com.

0:20:18.240 --> 0:20:20.160
<v Speaker 2>But I do know that Microsoft isn't making much money

0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:23.159
<v Speaker 2>on AI at all. Microsoft reported in its last earnings

0:20:23.160 --> 0:20:25.960
<v Speaker 2>that it was making thirteen billion dollars of annual revenue,

0:20:26.040 --> 0:20:29.119
<v Speaker 2>a projected number based on current contracts versus booked money.

0:20:29.480 --> 0:20:33.119
<v Speaker 2>And this was on their artificial intelligence products. Now I've

0:20:33.160 --> 0:20:35.320
<v Speaker 2>made this point again and again and again, and I'm

0:20:35.320 --> 0:20:37.040
<v Speaker 2>going to keep making it. But revenue is not the

0:20:37.080 --> 0:20:39.520
<v Speaker 2>same thing as profit, and Microsoft does not have an

0:20:39.560 --> 0:20:42.879
<v Speaker 2>artificial intelligence part of its earnings breakdowns. These numbers are

0:20:42.960 --> 0:20:45.560
<v Speaker 2>cherry picked from across the entire suite of Microsoft products,

0:20:45.560 --> 0:20:47.719
<v Speaker 2>such as selling Copilot add ons to their Microsoft three

0:20:47.760 --> 0:20:49.720
<v Speaker 2>sixty five enter price suite. And by the way, The

0:20:49.760 --> 0:20:52.399
<v Speaker 2>Information reported in September twenty twenty four that Microsoft had

0:20:52.400 --> 0:20:55.720
<v Speaker 2>only sold Copilot to around one percent of their customers

0:20:55.760 --> 0:20:58.760
<v Speaker 2>buying three sixty five. They also make it selling access

0:20:58.760 --> 0:21:01.200
<v Speaker 2>to open AIS models on this roughly a billion dollars

0:21:01.240 --> 0:21:03.359
<v Speaker 2>in revenue, and people running their own models, and the

0:21:03.440 --> 0:21:07.320
<v Speaker 2>zore cloud, Microsoft's cloud compute platform for context. By the way,

0:21:07.320 --> 0:21:09.800
<v Speaker 2>Microsoft made sixty nine point sixty three billion dollars in

0:21:09.840 --> 0:21:13.800
<v Speaker 2>revenue in its last quarter, thirteen billion dollars of annual

0:21:14.119 --> 0:21:17.280
<v Speaker 2>revenue not profit, is about three point twenty five billion

0:21:17.320 --> 0:21:20.240
<v Speaker 2>dollars in quarterly revenue off of upwards of two hundred

0:21:20.240 --> 0:21:24.439
<v Speaker 2>billion dollars of capital expenditure since twenty twenty three. The

0:21:24.520 --> 0:21:28.320
<v Speaker 2>fact that neither Gemini nor Copilot has any meaningful consumer

0:21:28.359 --> 0:21:31.280
<v Speaker 2>penetration isn't just a joke. It should be sending alarm

0:21:31.320 --> 0:21:34.400
<v Speaker 2>bells through Wall Street. While Microsoft and Google may make

0:21:34.440 --> 0:21:37.600
<v Speaker 2>money outside of consumer software, both companies have desperately tried

0:21:37.640 --> 0:21:40.480
<v Speaker 2>to cram Copilot and Gemini down consumer's throats, and they

0:21:40.480 --> 0:21:44.800
<v Speaker 2>have categorically unquestionably failed or while burning billions of dollars

0:21:44.880 --> 0:21:48.520
<v Speaker 2>to do so. But ed ed, what about get hubcopilot?

0:21:48.560 --> 0:21:50.800
<v Speaker 2>All right, let's talk about git hub coopilot, shall we.

0:21:51.200 --> 0:21:53.080
<v Speaker 2>According to a report from The Wall Street Journal from

0:21:53.080 --> 0:21:56.000
<v Speaker 2>October twenty twenty three, Microsoft was losing an average of

0:21:56.440 --> 0:21:59.439
<v Speaker 2>more than twenty dollars a month per user on the

0:21:59.480 --> 0:22:03.119
<v Speaker 2>paid of gitthub copilot, what with some users costing them

0:22:03.160 --> 0:22:07.640
<v Speaker 2>more than eighty dollars a month. Jesus christ. Microsoft said

0:22:07.640 --> 0:22:09.840
<v Speaker 2>a year later that gethub copilot had one point eight

0:22:09.880 --> 0:22:13.040
<v Speaker 2>million paid subscribers, which is pretty good, except like all

0:22:13.040 --> 0:22:15.720
<v Speaker 2>generativio products, it loses money. Like I just bloody said,

0:22:16.320 --> 0:22:18.719
<v Speaker 2>I must repeat that Microsoft will have spent over two

0:22:18.840 --> 0:22:21.280
<v Speaker 2>hundred billion dollars in capital expenditures by the end of

0:22:21.280 --> 0:22:24.360
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty five. In return, Microsoft got one point eight

0:22:24.400 --> 0:22:27.240
<v Speaker 2>million paying customers for a product that, like everything else

0:22:27.240 --> 0:22:30.000
<v Speaker 2>I'm talking about, is heavily commoditized. Basically, every LM can

0:22:30.040 --> 0:22:32.920
<v Speaker 2>generate code that some are better than others, by which

0:22:32.960 --> 0:22:35.320
<v Speaker 2>I mean they all introduced security issues into your code.

0:22:35.359 --> 0:22:39.320
<v Speaker 2>But nevertheless, and somehow, Microsoft loses money even when the

0:22:39.400 --> 0:22:42.760
<v Speaker 2>users use it paid. Am I getting through to you yet?

0:22:42.880 --> 0:22:45.320
<v Speaker 2>Is this working? If you are working for a hedge

0:22:45.359 --> 0:22:47.520
<v Speaker 2>fund and investment bank or anyone like that, please get

0:22:47.560 --> 0:22:50.280
<v Speaker 2>in touch. I will protect your identity. Is anyone around

0:22:50.320 --> 0:22:53.920
<v Speaker 2>you freaking out because they should be? They should be. Man,

0:22:54.200 --> 0:22:56.919
<v Speaker 2>I'm freaking out a little, and I just keep all

0:22:57.000 --> 0:22:59.680
<v Speaker 2>my money in a big box under my bed. I don't

0:22:59.760 --> 0:23:03.600
<v Speaker 2>have that I do anyway, not going to do that. Jug. So,

0:23:03.680 --> 0:23:06.480
<v Speaker 2>one of the arguments people make is that AI is everywhere,

0:23:06.480 --> 0:23:08.480
<v Speaker 2>But it's important to remember that the prevalence of AI

0:23:08.560 --> 0:23:11.040
<v Speaker 2>you seeing it in different apps, is not proof of

0:23:11.080 --> 0:23:13.560
<v Speaker 2>its adoption, but the intent of companies to shove it

0:23:13.560 --> 0:23:16.760
<v Speaker 2>into everything, And the same goes for businesses integrating AI

0:23:16.800 --> 0:23:19.360
<v Speaker 2>that are really just mandating people dick around with Copilot

0:23:19.400 --> 0:23:22.520
<v Speaker 2>or chat GPT and I'm really not kidding, no really.

0:23:22.720 --> 0:23:26.680
<v Speaker 2>KPMG bought forty seven thousand Microsoft Copilot subscriptions last year,

0:23:26.720 --> 0:23:30.240
<v Speaker 2>a significant discount to be familiar with any AI questions

0:23:30.480 --> 0:23:34.359
<v Speaker 2>their customers may have. Management consultancy PwC bought one hundred

0:23:34.440 --> 0:23:38.159
<v Speaker 2>thousand enterprise subscriptions, becoming open AI's largest customer in the process,

0:23:38.160 --> 0:23:40.320
<v Speaker 2>as well as their first reseller, and have created their

0:23:40.359 --> 0:23:45.960
<v Speaker 2>own internal generative AI called Chach PwC. The PWSC stuff

0:23:46.000 --> 0:23:49.000
<v Speaker 2>as absolutely hate. It's really cool that when you actually

0:23:49.040 --> 0:23:51.600
<v Speaker 2>talk to the users, they just fucking hate it. And

0:23:51.640 --> 0:23:54.680
<v Speaker 2>while you may see AI everywhere, integrations of generative AI

0:23:54.920 --> 0:23:57.920
<v Speaker 2>are indicative more of the decision making of the management

0:23:57.920 --> 0:24:00.280
<v Speaker 2>behind the platforms and the demands of the market more

0:24:00.320 --> 0:24:03.719
<v Speaker 2>than any consumer demand. Enterprise software is more often than

0:24:03.760 --> 0:24:06.639
<v Speaker 2>not sold in bolt to managers or c suite executive tasks,

0:24:06.720 --> 0:24:10.159
<v Speaker 2>less with company operations and messy things like doing staff

0:24:10.200 --> 0:24:12.760
<v Speaker 2>for making sure the company runs, more with seeming on

0:24:12.800 --> 0:24:16.119
<v Speaker 2>the forefront of technology. In practical terms, this means that

0:24:16.160 --> 0:24:18.400
<v Speaker 2>there is a lot of demand to put AI in stuff,

0:24:18.760 --> 0:24:21.480
<v Speaker 2>and some demand to buy stuff with AI on it

0:24:21.960 --> 0:24:25.760
<v Speaker 2>by enterprise buying software, but little evidence that this actually

0:24:25.840 --> 0:24:30.400
<v Speaker 2>leads the significant user adoption or usage. I'd argue this

0:24:30.440 --> 0:24:32.840
<v Speaker 2>is because large language models do not really lend themselves

0:24:32.880 --> 0:24:35.800
<v Speaker 2>to features that would provide meaningful business returns. And I

0:24:35.800 --> 0:24:37.840
<v Speaker 2>think everyone can agree on that, Like there are things

0:24:38.040 --> 0:24:40.480
<v Speaker 2>like summarizing emails, which I'll get to get to that

0:24:40.560 --> 0:24:43.600
<v Speaker 2>in a second. Look. In fact, let's do it now.

0:24:44.119 --> 0:24:47.320
<v Speaker 2>Let's briefly talk about where large language models work, where

0:24:47.760 --> 0:24:49.720
<v Speaker 2>they are actually good. And some of you are not

0:24:49.720 --> 0:24:51.000
<v Speaker 2>going to love this, but I know there's one of

0:24:51.040 --> 0:24:53.960
<v Speaker 2>you is that yes, yes, now I will get ahead.

0:24:54.040 --> 0:24:57.600
<v Speaker 2>I've got him now, I have him in my sights,

0:24:57.640 --> 0:24:59.560
<v Speaker 2>to be clear, And this is really dealing with the

0:24:59.600 --> 0:25:02.680
<v Speaker 2>am actually responses. I'm not saying and really have never

0:25:02.760 --> 0:25:05.560
<v Speaker 2>meant to say that large language models have no use

0:25:05.640 --> 0:25:09.560
<v Speaker 2>cases or no customers. People really do use them. They

0:25:09.640 --> 0:25:12.800
<v Speaker 2>use them for coding, for searching defined libraries of documents,

0:25:12.800 --> 0:25:16.200
<v Speaker 2>for generating draft materials, for brainstorming, for summarizing and searching documents,

0:25:16.240 --> 0:25:20.240
<v Speaker 2>These are useful, but they're not magical. They're cool, but

0:25:20.320 --> 0:25:24.760
<v Speaker 2>that's about it, and their coolness or usefulness is a

0:25:24.800 --> 0:25:28.120
<v Speaker 2>tiny little ant compared to the costs and stealing from

0:25:28.119 --> 0:25:32.919
<v Speaker 2>millions of people and damaging our power grid in our planet. Okay, okay,

0:25:32.960 --> 0:25:36.200
<v Speaker 2>so you're probably wondering. I brought it up earlier. Agents.

0:25:36.240 --> 0:25:39.000
<v Speaker 2>You've heard about agents. Mark Benioff wankin Off about agents.

0:25:38.960 --> 0:25:42.000
<v Speaker 2>Sam Allman talking about agents. They loved, They loved talking

0:25:42.040 --> 0:25:45.600
<v Speaker 2>about agents, right, they love saying agents of the future.

0:25:46.000 --> 0:25:48.760
<v Speaker 2>When a company uses the term agent, they're intentionally trying

0:25:48.800 --> 0:25:51.520
<v Speaker 2>to be deceitful, because the term agent means autonomous AI

0:25:51.560 --> 0:25:53.520
<v Speaker 2>that does stuff without you touching. It goes off and

0:25:53.560 --> 0:25:56.359
<v Speaker 2>does things for you with one command, and it knows

0:25:56.359 --> 0:25:59.560
<v Speaker 2>what to do. Remember, these models don't know anything. The

0:25:59.600 --> 0:26:02.000
<v Speaker 2>problem this definition is that everybody has used it to

0:26:02.080 --> 0:26:04.399
<v Speaker 2>refer to what is actually a chatbot that can do

0:26:04.480 --> 0:26:07.119
<v Speaker 2>some things while connected to a database, which I would

0:26:07.160 --> 0:26:11.040
<v Speaker 2>regularly called a chatbot personally. In open AI and anthropics case,

0:26:11.080 --> 0:26:13.439
<v Speaker 2>agents refer to a model that controls the computer. This

0:26:13.480 --> 0:26:15.320
<v Speaker 2>is closer to the truth other than the fact that

0:26:15.359 --> 0:26:18.040
<v Speaker 2>their agents are so unreliable as to be disqualifying, and

0:26:18.080 --> 0:26:20.840
<v Speaker 2>the tasks they succeed at, like searching trip advisor, are

0:26:20.960 --> 0:26:23.960
<v Speaker 2>very simple and did not need automating. Next time you

0:26:24.000 --> 0:26:25.960
<v Speaker 2>hear the agent actually look at what the product does,

0:26:26.000 --> 0:26:29.200
<v Speaker 2>and maybe you flick a booger at the person. But Ed, Ed,

0:26:29.440 --> 0:26:31.720
<v Speaker 2>you just burst into my door and having a nice

0:26:31.720 --> 0:26:33.359
<v Speaker 2>diet coke and you're in my house. What are you

0:26:33.440 --> 0:26:33.920
<v Speaker 2>doing here?

0:26:34.240 --> 0:26:34.320
<v Speaker 1>Ed?

0:26:34.359 --> 0:26:37.200
<v Speaker 2>What about artificial general intelligence? Aren't they going to turn

0:26:37.240 --> 0:26:39.560
<v Speaker 2>this into artificial general intelligence? No, they're not. Get out

0:26:39.600 --> 0:26:43.199
<v Speaker 2>of my house. Generative AI is probabilistic and large language

0:26:43.200 --> 0:26:45.359
<v Speaker 2>models do not know anything because they are guessing what

0:26:45.400 --> 0:26:47.679
<v Speaker 2>the next part of a particular output would be based

0:26:47.680 --> 0:26:50.359
<v Speaker 2>on the imput in reasoning models. They might look at

0:26:50.359 --> 0:26:51.919
<v Speaker 2>that a few times go oh, maybe it's not this,

0:26:52.000 --> 0:26:55.399
<v Speaker 2>maybe it's this. They are not making decisions. Generative AI

0:26:55.480 --> 0:26:59.240
<v Speaker 2>does not make decisions. They are probability machines, which in

0:26:59.280 --> 0:27:01.919
<v Speaker 2>turn makes them own only as reliable as probability can

0:27:02.000 --> 0:27:04.800
<v Speaker 2>be and as conscious no matter how intricate the system

0:27:04.840 --> 0:27:07.159
<v Speaker 2>may be or how much infrastructure is built. As a

0:27:07.200 --> 0:27:11.560
<v Speaker 2>pair of dice, we do not understand how human intelligence works,

0:27:11.640 --> 0:27:14.160
<v Speaker 2>and as a result, it's completely laughable to imagine we'd

0:27:14.160 --> 0:27:17.000
<v Speaker 2>be able to simulate it. Large language models do not

0:27:17.080 --> 0:27:21.520
<v Speaker 2>create or resemble, or they're not artificial intelligence. They are

0:27:21.920 --> 0:27:24.880
<v Speaker 2>at most the most powerful parrot in the world, trained

0:27:24.920 --> 0:27:27.119
<v Speaker 2>to respond to stimulus with what they guess is the

0:27:27.119 --> 0:27:30.760
<v Speaker 2>correct answer, and they're pretty good at it. They're pretty good. Right,

0:27:31.720 --> 0:27:35.000
<v Speaker 2>It's pretty cool, except we shouldn't be burning hundreds of

0:27:35.000 --> 0:27:37.600
<v Speaker 2>billions of dollars to make them slightly better at this.

0:27:38.000 --> 0:27:39.840
<v Speaker 2>Let me put it in simpler terms. Imagine if you

0:27:39.880 --> 0:27:41.679
<v Speaker 2>made a machine that threw a bouncy ball down a

0:27:41.680 --> 0:27:44.440
<v Speaker 2>hallway and it was really really you got really good

0:27:44.440 --> 0:27:46.000
<v Speaker 2>at dialing in to throw the ball so that it

0:27:46.000 --> 0:27:49.280
<v Speaker 2>followed a fairly exact trajectory. Would you think the arm

0:27:49.400 --> 0:27:53.600
<v Speaker 2>was intelligent? Would you think the ball was intelligent? Would

0:27:53.680 --> 0:27:56.879
<v Speaker 2>you think that the ability to precisely do something or

0:27:57.440 --> 0:28:01.440
<v Speaker 2>more reliably do something would make it smart. The point

0:28:01.480 --> 0:28:04.680
<v Speaker 2>I'm making about large language models is that they're a

0:28:04.760 --> 0:28:07.560
<v Speaker 2>cool concept with some interesting things they can do. But

0:28:07.600 --> 0:28:09.960
<v Speaker 2>they've been used as a cynical marketing vehicle to raise

0:28:09.960 --> 0:28:12.359
<v Speaker 2>money for open AI by lying about what they're capable

0:28:12.400 --> 0:28:30.080
<v Speaker 2>of doing, starting with calling them artificial intelligence. All right, really, though,

0:28:30.359 --> 0:28:32.960
<v Speaker 2>at this point, I need to ask a very fucking

0:28:33.000 --> 0:28:36.159
<v Speaker 2>simple question. Where is the goddamn money? Where is the

0:28:36.160 --> 0:28:39.760
<v Speaker 2>goddamn money? Where's the money? Sammy, Sammy, give me the money.

0:28:39.800 --> 0:28:42.560
<v Speaker 2>Where's the money? Money me money now? Sam Mortman, where

0:28:42.640 --> 0:28:45.160
<v Speaker 2>is the money? Dario Ama Day, where's the money? Satya Nadella,

0:28:45.200 --> 0:28:47.960
<v Speaker 2>where's the money? Summed up Ashai? Where's the money? Mark Benioff,

0:28:47.960 --> 0:28:51.160
<v Speaker 2>where's the money? Where is the goddamn money? Because revenue

0:28:51.200 --> 0:28:53.560
<v Speaker 2>is not the same as profit, I will say it again,

0:28:53.840 --> 0:28:58.160
<v Speaker 2>revenue is not the same as profit. And even then, Google, Amazon,

0:28:58.200 --> 0:29:00.640
<v Speaker 2>and to an extent, Microsoft, the company's making the most

0:29:00.680 --> 0:29:03.200
<v Speaker 2>investments in AI, do not want to state what the

0:29:03.240 --> 0:29:06.960
<v Speaker 2>revenue is on AI. I hypothesize the reason that they

0:29:06.960 --> 0:29:09.160
<v Speaker 2>do not want to disclose it is that it's pretty

0:29:09.200 --> 0:29:13.640
<v Speaker 2>goddamn small. It is extremely worrying that so few companies

0:29:13.680 --> 0:29:16.600
<v Speaker 2>are willing to directly disclose their revenue from selling services

0:29:16.600 --> 0:29:21.240
<v Speaker 2>that are allegedly revolutionary. Why Salesforce says they close two

0:29:21.280 --> 0:29:24.160
<v Speaker 2>hundred AI related deals in their last earnings. How much

0:29:24.200 --> 0:29:26.440
<v Speaker 2>money did they make? Why does Google get away with

0:29:26.480 --> 0:29:29.240
<v Speaker 2>saying that they have growing demand for AI and nothing else?

0:29:29.760 --> 0:29:33.880
<v Speaker 2>Is it? Because nobody's making that much money. As a sidebar,

0:29:34.080 --> 0:29:36.960
<v Speaker 2>I can find and I've really really looked like one

0:29:37.040 --> 0:29:39.600
<v Speaker 2>company that appears to be making profit from genera ivai

0:29:39.880 --> 0:29:42.800
<v Speaker 2>during a consultancy that helps generaivai companies find people to

0:29:42.800 --> 0:29:45.200
<v Speaker 2>train their models. That made three hundred million dollars in

0:29:45.240 --> 0:29:48.840
<v Speaker 2>revenue in twenty twenty four and reach an indeterminate amount

0:29:48.840 --> 0:29:50.560
<v Speaker 2>of profitability. We don't know if it was like a

0:29:50.600 --> 0:29:54.120
<v Speaker 2>million dollars or not, while Microsoft may disclose it made

0:29:54.200 --> 0:29:57.560
<v Speaker 2>thirteen million dollars in AI revenue that's annualized, so projected

0:29:57.600 --> 0:30:00.640
<v Speaker 2>based on current contracts rather than actual money in accounts,

0:30:00.840 --> 0:30:03.320
<v Speaker 2>and does not speak to the specific line items like

0:30:03.360 --> 0:30:05.800
<v Speaker 2>one would say. If said line items, we're not going

0:30:05.880 --> 0:30:08.280
<v Speaker 2>to make. The market say, hey, what the fuck? Put

0:30:08.280 --> 0:30:10.920
<v Speaker 2>aside whatever fantastical beliefs you may have about the future,

0:30:10.920 --> 0:30:13.360
<v Speaker 2>and tell me right now what business use case exists

0:30:13.520 --> 0:30:16.440
<v Speaker 2>that justifies burning hundreds of billions of dollars, damaging our

0:30:16.480 --> 0:30:18.880
<v Speaker 2>power grid, hurting our planet, and stealing from millions of

0:30:18.880 --> 0:30:21.720
<v Speaker 2>people to train these models. Even if you can put

0:30:21.720 --> 0:30:25.960
<v Speaker 2>troublesome things like morals or the basic principles of finance aside,

0:30:26.040 --> 0:30:28.960
<v Speaker 2>can AI evangelists not see that their dream is failing.

0:30:29.240 --> 0:30:31.880
<v Speaker 2>Can they not see that nothing is really happening, That

0:30:31.960 --> 0:30:34.520
<v Speaker 2>general ivai at best can be kind of cool, yet

0:30:34.520 --> 0:30:38.000
<v Speaker 2>mostly sucks and comes at this unbearable moral, financial, and

0:30:38.080 --> 0:30:41.880
<v Speaker 2>environmental cost. Is any of this really worth it? And

0:30:41.920 --> 0:30:45.640
<v Speaker 2>where exactly does this end? Do you AI evangelist gone

0:30:45.680 --> 0:30:48.080
<v Speaker 2>to your head, your life contingent on the truth, leaving

0:30:48.080 --> 0:30:50.640
<v Speaker 2>your lips believe that this goes much further than you

0:30:50.680 --> 0:30:54.440
<v Speaker 2>see today? Do not know if these AI people see

0:30:54.480 --> 0:30:57.000
<v Speaker 2>that this kind of sucks? Do they not see that

0:30:57.040 --> 0:30:59.719
<v Speaker 2>general ifai runs contrary to the basic tenets of what

0:30:59.760 --> 0:31:03.280
<v Speaker 2>makes science fiction call It doesn't make humans better. It

0:31:03.320 --> 0:31:06.080
<v Speaker 2>reduces their work to a stagnant, unremarkable slop in every

0:31:06.120 --> 0:31:08.560
<v Speaker 2>way it can, and reduces the cognition of those who

0:31:08.560 --> 0:31:10.320
<v Speaker 2>come to rely on it, And it costs hundreds of

0:31:10.320 --> 0:31:12.720
<v Speaker 2>billions of dollars and a return to fossil fuels. For

0:31:12.760 --> 0:31:16.600
<v Speaker 2>some fucking reason, it isn't working. The users aren't there,

0:31:16.720 --> 0:31:19.000
<v Speaker 2>the revenue isn't there. The best time to stop this

0:31:19.040 --> 0:31:20.680
<v Speaker 2>was two years ago, and the next best time to

0:31:20.680 --> 0:31:24.080
<v Speaker 2>stop is as soon as humanly possible. Generatifai is a

0:31:24.080 --> 0:31:27.840
<v Speaker 2>group delusion, its own kind of real life hallucination. What

0:31:27.880 --> 0:31:29.920
<v Speaker 2>you're seeing in the news is not the success of

0:31:29.960 --> 0:31:33.640
<v Speaker 2>the artificial intelligence industry, but a runaway narrative created by

0:31:33.640 --> 0:31:37.560
<v Speaker 2>and sustained by Sam Altman, Open Ai, Dario Amadee, and

0:31:37.680 --> 0:31:41.440
<v Speaker 2>of course satch In Nedella these fucking people. What you're

0:31:41.480 --> 0:31:44.640
<v Speaker 2>watching is not a revolution but a repetitious public relations

0:31:44.640 --> 0:31:47.240
<v Speaker 2>campaign for one company that accidentally time the launch of

0:31:47.280 --> 0:31:50.320
<v Speaker 2>chat GBT with a period of deep desperation in big tech,

0:31:50.560 --> 0:31:52.640
<v Speaker 2>one so profound that it will likely drag half a

0:31:52.680 --> 0:31:56.760
<v Speaker 2>trillion dollars worth of capital expenditures along with it. The

0:31:56.760 --> 0:31:58.920
<v Speaker 2>bubble will only burst when either the markets or the

0:31:59.000 --> 0:32:02.360
<v Speaker 2>hyperscalers accept that they've chased their own tales toward oblivion.

0:32:02.680 --> 0:32:05.800
<v Speaker 2>There is no justification for any of the capital expenditures

0:32:05.840 --> 0:32:08.560
<v Speaker 2>related to generative AI. We are approaching the limit of

0:32:08.560 --> 0:32:11.720
<v Speaker 2>what transformer based architecture can do, if we haven't already

0:32:11.800 --> 0:32:15.280
<v Speaker 2>reached it. No amount of beating off about test time, compute,

0:32:15.280 --> 0:32:18.040
<v Speaker 2>and connecting large language models to other large language models

0:32:18.080 --> 0:32:20.240
<v Speaker 2>is going to create a new use case for this technology,

0:32:20.360 --> 0:32:22.280
<v Speaker 2>and even if it did, it's unlikely that it ever

0:32:22.320 --> 0:32:25.320
<v Speaker 2>makes enough money to make it profitable. I will keep

0:32:25.360 --> 0:32:28.120
<v Speaker 2>talking about this stuff until I'm proven wrong. I do

0:32:28.120 --> 0:32:30.240
<v Speaker 2>not know why more people aren't more worried about this.

0:32:30.600 --> 0:32:33.440
<v Speaker 2>The financials are truly damning. The user numbers are so

0:32:33.480 --> 0:32:36.280
<v Speaker 2>small as to be insignificant. The costs are so ruinous

0:32:36.440 --> 0:32:38.560
<v Speaker 2>that they will likely cost tens of thousands of people

0:32:38.600 --> 0:32:41.200
<v Speaker 2>their jobs, and one of the hyperscalar CEOs their job

0:32:41.240 --> 0:32:43.920
<v Speaker 2>along with it, although admittedly I'm a lot less upset

0:32:43.960 --> 0:32:46.360
<v Speaker 2>about that. And they're going to inflict damage on tech

0:32:46.440 --> 0:32:49.760
<v Speaker 2>valuations that may well rival the dot com boom or worse.

0:32:50.320 --> 0:32:53.240
<v Speaker 2>And if the last point feels distant to you, ask yourself,

0:32:53.680 --> 0:32:57.240
<v Speaker 2>what's in your retirement savings? That's right, Google, Microsoft, and

0:32:57.320 --> 0:32:59.000
<v Speaker 2>hundreds of other companies that will be hurt by the

0:32:59.000 --> 0:33:03.720
<v Speaker 2>contagion of an aiding. I should also not be the

0:33:03.840 --> 0:33:06.960
<v Speaker 2>person saying this, or at least I shouldn't be one

0:33:06.960 --> 0:33:09.720
<v Speaker 2>of the first. These numbers are horrifying, and I have

0:33:09.800 --> 0:33:13.320
<v Speaker 2>no idea why nobody else is worried. There's no industry here,

0:33:13.400 --> 0:33:15.440
<v Speaker 2>there is no money. There's no proof that this will

0:33:15.480 --> 0:33:18.120
<v Speaker 2>ever turn into a real industry, and far more proof

0:33:18.120 --> 0:33:20.040
<v Speaker 2>that it will cost more money than it will ever make.

0:33:20.120 --> 0:33:24.040
<v Speaker 2>Im perpetuity open AI and anthropic are not real companies.

0:33:24.280 --> 0:33:27.120
<v Speaker 2>They're freeloaders living on venture backed welfare for an indeterminate

0:33:27.160 --> 0:33:29.640
<v Speaker 2>amount of time. Because the entire tech industry has agreed

0:33:29.680 --> 0:33:32.680
<v Speaker 2>to rally around the world's most unprofitable software, and, like

0:33:32.800 --> 0:33:35.400
<v Speaker 2>any other free ride that doesn't actually produce anything, when

0:33:35.440 --> 0:33:39.720
<v Speaker 2>the money goes away, they're fucked. Seriously, why are investors

0:33:39.800 --> 0:33:43.120
<v Speaker 2>funding open Ai? Do they seriously believe it's necessary to

0:33:43.200 --> 0:33:45.760
<v Speaker 2>let Sam Altman and open Ai continue to burn five

0:33:45.880 --> 0:33:48.080
<v Speaker 2>or more billion dollars a year on the off chance

0:33:48.080 --> 0:33:52.600
<v Speaker 2>he's able to create something that's alive. This motherfucker can't

0:33:52.600 --> 0:33:55.760
<v Speaker 2>create something that's profitable. What's the end point here? How

0:33:55.760 --> 0:33:58.840
<v Speaker 2>many more billions? Where's the fucking money? Sammy? Where is it?

0:33:58.880 --> 0:34:03.040
<v Speaker 2>Sam Moorman? Where's my god damn money? Where's my money? Sam?

0:34:03.280 --> 0:34:06.680
<v Speaker 2>I say all this because generativeai is open Ai. The

0:34:06.680 --> 0:34:10.279
<v Speaker 2>consumer adoption of this software is completely failed, and it's

0:34:10.280 --> 0:34:14.080
<v Speaker 2>going nowhere fast Chat GPT is sustained entirely on deranged,

0:34:14.080 --> 0:34:16.799
<v Speaker 2>specious hype drummed up by a media industry that thinks

0:34:16.840 --> 0:34:18.920
<v Speaker 2>it's more remarkable to write down the last lie that

0:34:18.960 --> 0:34:21.600
<v Speaker 2>Sam Moltman told than say that open ai has lost

0:34:21.640 --> 0:34:24.480
<v Speaker 2>nine billion dollars in the last year to Sorry, they

0:34:24.560 --> 0:34:27.800
<v Speaker 2>spent nine billion dollars to lose five billion dollars in

0:34:27.920 --> 0:34:29.520
<v Speaker 2>last year, and they intend to more than double that

0:34:29.600 --> 0:34:34.799
<v Speaker 2>number in twenty twenty five for absolutely no reason. Look, look,

0:34:35.560 --> 0:34:37.800
<v Speaker 2>it's time to stop humoring open ai and time to

0:34:37.840 --> 0:34:41.080
<v Speaker 2>stop directly stating that it is a bad business without

0:34:41.120 --> 0:34:44.200
<v Speaker 2>a meaningful product. We also really need to be clear

0:34:44.200 --> 0:34:46.680
<v Speaker 2>that the generative AI industry does not really exist without

0:34:46.719 --> 0:34:50.080
<v Speaker 2>open Ai, and thus this company must justify its existence.

0:34:50.360 --> 0:34:54.560
<v Speaker 2>And let's be abundantly clear, open Ai cannot exist any

0:34:54.640 --> 0:34:59.040
<v Speaker 2>further without further venture capital investment. This company has absolutely

0:34:59.080 --> 0:35:01.680
<v Speaker 2>no path to sustain in itself, no mode, and loses

0:35:01.719 --> 0:35:03.960
<v Speaker 2>so much money that it will need more than fifty

0:35:03.960 --> 0:35:06.239
<v Speaker 2>billion dollars to continue in its current form in the

0:35:06.280 --> 0:35:10.080
<v Speaker 2>next year. I don't know how I'm wrong, and I've

0:35:10.080 --> 0:35:12.680
<v Speaker 2>sat and thought through and researched a great deal on

0:35:12.760 --> 0:35:15.680
<v Speaker 2>how I might be. I can't find any compelling arguments.

0:35:15.880 --> 0:35:17.160
<v Speaker 2>I don't know what to do, but tell you what

0:35:17.200 --> 0:35:18.640
<v Speaker 2>I think and why I think that way, and hope

0:35:18.680 --> 0:35:21.120
<v Speaker 2>that you the listener understand a little bit more about

0:35:21.120 --> 0:35:24.600
<v Speaker 2>what I think is going on, because this really bothers me.

0:35:25.200 --> 0:35:27.240
<v Speaker 2>As I've said before, I grew up on the compute.

0:35:27.239 --> 0:35:29.239
<v Speaker 2>The computer made me who I am. Seeing the tech

0:35:29.320 --> 0:35:32.000
<v Speaker 2>industry like this sickens me because it's getting money away

0:35:32.040 --> 0:35:35.160
<v Speaker 2>from people doing cool shit to the least cool people

0:35:35.160 --> 0:35:39.080
<v Speaker 2>doing the least coolshit possible, and it's frustrating. But I'll

0:35:39.120 --> 0:35:41.240
<v Speaker 2>leave you with one thought and one thing that particularly

0:35:41.280 --> 0:35:44.719
<v Speaker 2>bothers me about GENERATIVAI. Regular people, for the most part

0:35:44.719 --> 0:35:47.160
<v Speaker 2>of my experience, do not seem to want this. While

0:35:47.160 --> 0:35:49.440
<v Speaker 2>there are occasionally people I'll mate you use chat GPT

0:35:49.600 --> 0:35:52.080
<v Speaker 2>to rewrite part of an email, most of the people

0:35:52.120 --> 0:35:54.640
<v Speaker 2>I may feel like AI was forced upon them. With

0:35:54.719 --> 0:35:57.360
<v Speaker 2>that in mind, I believe that Apple is actually radicalizing

0:35:57.400 --> 0:36:00.520
<v Speaker 2>millions of people against GENERATIVEAI by forcing them to reckon

0:36:00.560 --> 0:36:04.080
<v Speaker 2>with the terrible summaries, awful suggested texts, and horribly designed

0:36:04.160 --> 0:36:07.800
<v Speaker 2>user interface choices from Apple Intelligence, one of the worst

0:36:07.800 --> 0:36:10.800
<v Speaker 2>product launches I think I've seen in my life. Something

0:36:10.800 --> 0:36:13.560
<v Speaker 2>about generative AI has caused the hyperscalers to truly lose

0:36:13.560 --> 0:36:16.680
<v Speaker 2>their minds, and the intrusion of GENERATIVAI into both Microsoft

0:36:16.680 --> 0:36:19.440
<v Speaker 2>Office and Google Docs has turned just about everybody I

0:36:19.480 --> 0:36:22.440
<v Speaker 2>know in the business world against them. The resentment boiling

0:36:22.480 --> 0:36:24.880
<v Speaker 2>against this software is profound because the tech industry has

0:36:24.920 --> 0:36:28.320
<v Speaker 2>become desperate and violative, showing such contempt for their customers

0:36:28.320 --> 0:36:31.600
<v Speaker 2>that even Apple will force an inferior experience upon their

0:36:31.640 --> 0:36:34.040
<v Speaker 2>customers to please the will of the rot economy and

0:36:34.040 --> 0:36:36.920
<v Speaker 2>the growth at all cost mindset of the markets. Let's

0:36:36.920 --> 0:36:41.560
<v Speaker 2>be frank, nobody really needs anything generative AI does. Large

0:36:41.640 --> 0:36:44.440
<v Speaker 2>language models hallucinate too much to be truly reliable, a

0:36:44.480 --> 0:36:48.120
<v Speaker 2>problem that will require entirely new branches of mathematics to solve,

0:36:48.320 --> 0:36:51.920
<v Speaker 2>and their most common consumer facing functions like summarizing an article,

0:36:52.120 --> 0:36:54.719
<v Speaker 2>practicing for a job interview, or writing a business plan

0:36:54.920 --> 0:36:57.760
<v Speaker 2>are not really things people need or massively benefit from.

0:36:57.800 --> 0:37:01.280
<v Speaker 2>Even if these things weren't ruinously expensive damaging to the environment.

0:37:02.120 --> 0:37:05.040
<v Speaker 2>I believe general if AI is turning regular people against

0:37:05.080 --> 0:37:07.239
<v Speaker 2>the tech industry thanks to how much they're trying to

0:37:07.239 --> 0:37:10.120
<v Speaker 2>force it upon them and make them use the bad idea,

0:37:10.840 --> 0:37:14.800
<v Speaker 2>and it isn't working. Nobody wants this ship. They're intrigued

0:37:14.800 --> 0:37:16.719
<v Speaker 2>by the idea, then immediately bounce off of it in

0:37:16.760 --> 0:37:19.400
<v Speaker 2>many cases once they see what it can or can't do.

0:37:19.920 --> 0:37:22.160
<v Speaker 2>This software is being forced on people at scale by

0:37:22.200 --> 0:37:26.000
<v Speaker 2>corporations desperate to seem futuristic without any real understanding as

0:37:26.040 --> 0:37:28.200
<v Speaker 2>to why they need to do so, and whatever use

0:37:28.280 --> 0:37:31.000
<v Speaker 2>cases may exist for large language models are dwarfed by

0:37:31.000 --> 0:37:34.600
<v Speaker 2>how utterly unprofitable this whole fucking fiasco is. But I

0:37:34.640 --> 0:37:36.960
<v Speaker 2>want you to do something. If this whole thing has

0:37:37.040 --> 0:37:40.200
<v Speaker 2>pissed you off, if hearing about these companies has enraged

0:37:40.239 --> 0:37:43.080
<v Speaker 2>you as it has enraged me. I want you to

0:37:43.239 --> 0:37:46.919
<v Speaker 2>tell your friends, your family that open Ai spent nine

0:37:46.960 --> 0:37:49.480
<v Speaker 2>billion dollars to lose five billion dollars. I want you

0:37:49.520 --> 0:37:51.680
<v Speaker 2>to talk about the fact that large language models don't

0:37:51.680 --> 0:37:54.920
<v Speaker 2>really have a market. That chat GPT is a marketing

0:37:54.960 --> 0:37:59.680
<v Speaker 2>con That Sachinidella of Microsoft has burned probably will burn too,

0:37:59.760 --> 0:38:02.560
<v Speaker 2>un billion dollars chasing software that does the same thing

0:38:02.560 --> 0:38:05.879
<v Speaker 2>as everyone else. That Tim Cook of Apple has forced

0:38:05.880 --> 0:38:09.080
<v Speaker 2>Apple Intelligence barely functional software on millions and millions of

0:38:09.080 --> 0:38:12.040
<v Speaker 2>people because Apple has no more ideas. That Mark Zuckerberg

0:38:12.120 --> 0:38:14.759
<v Speaker 2>of Meta has pushed AI on everything because he has

0:38:14.800 --> 0:38:17.200
<v Speaker 2>no more ideas left, and it's going to burn so

0:38:17.320 --> 0:38:20.360
<v Speaker 2>much money in Meta and Sam Altman and Daria Amaday

0:38:20.520 --> 0:38:23.400
<v Speaker 2>are two fucking liars, two liars who will tell you

0:38:23.440 --> 0:38:27.200
<v Speaker 2>that their software will turn into artificial general intelligence. They're lying.

0:38:27.840 --> 0:38:31.560
<v Speaker 2>They're all lying. And Sundharpeshai of Google is the arc

0:38:31.680 --> 0:38:34.440
<v Speaker 2>liar who went in Google io and talked about a

0:38:34.440 --> 0:38:39.240
<v Speaker 2>completely fictional AI agent returning some shoes. The only reason

0:38:39.440 --> 0:38:41.520
<v Speaker 2>that companies like this lie like this is because the

0:38:41.520 --> 0:38:44.920
<v Speaker 2>truth is boring. The truth is mediocre. Believe your goddamn

0:38:44.960 --> 0:38:47.080
<v Speaker 2>eyes when you use chat GPT and you say, what

0:38:47.120 --> 0:38:50.160
<v Speaker 2>the fuck is this? Why does this matter? You're not crazy,

0:38:51.160 --> 0:38:53.560
<v Speaker 2>You're not an idiot because you can't see the magic

0:38:53.560 --> 0:38:57.520
<v Speaker 2>of generative AI. The people pushing this stuff are rather credulous.

0:38:58.600 --> 0:39:01.799
<v Speaker 2>They're either bought or they're making a shit ton of

0:39:01.800 --> 0:39:04.520
<v Speaker 2>money and lying to you. I refuse to let them

0:39:04.560 --> 0:39:07.239
<v Speaker 2>keep doing so. Better off Lene exists to kind of

0:39:07.520 --> 0:39:09.759
<v Speaker 2>explain this stuff as plainly as possible. You can reach

0:39:09.800 --> 0:39:11.600
<v Speaker 2>out to me if I wasn't clear about something. I

0:39:11.680 --> 0:39:14.200
<v Speaker 2>love feedback. Please be nice to me. I guess is

0:39:14.239 --> 0:39:16.799
<v Speaker 2>what I ask. But I love doing this. I am

0:39:16.840 --> 0:39:18.560
<v Speaker 2>scared of how this ends. I think it's going to

0:39:18.640 --> 0:39:21.400
<v Speaker 2>really hurt the markets. Could be three months, could be

0:39:21.440 --> 0:39:23.759
<v Speaker 2>six months, could be eighteen months. I don't know, and

0:39:23.880 --> 0:39:27.400
<v Speaker 2>I don't really think it's the right thing to do

0:39:27.480 --> 0:39:30.759
<v Speaker 2>to predict, but I'll tell you this, a better tech

0:39:30.800 --> 0:39:32.759
<v Speaker 2>industry can come out of this collapse. I don't know

0:39:32.800 --> 0:39:34.720
<v Speaker 2>how severe the collapse is. I don't think like Google's

0:39:34.719 --> 0:39:36.719
<v Speaker 2>going to die ornything. It's going to hit tens of

0:39:36.719 --> 0:39:39.240
<v Speaker 2>thousands of people's jobs, It's going to hit the markets hard.

0:39:39.880 --> 0:39:41.719
<v Speaker 2>I don't know if a recession is possible. I'm not

0:39:41.760 --> 0:39:45.399
<v Speaker 2>a financial guy, but I'll tell you this, the tech

0:39:45.400 --> 0:39:49.440
<v Speaker 2>industry needs. They need to realize how bad this is.

0:39:49.480 --> 0:39:52.400
<v Speaker 2>They need consumers to tell them, and honestly, consumers not

0:39:52.480 --> 0:39:54.759
<v Speaker 2>using it should have told them. But they clearly haven't

0:39:54.760 --> 0:39:57.360
<v Speaker 2>worked that shit out, have they. But I'll leave you

0:39:57.400 --> 0:40:01.600
<v Speaker 2>with this. I think when this there's going to be

0:40:01.600 --> 0:40:05.359
<v Speaker 2>a lot of people that need to apologize. A lot

0:40:05.400 --> 0:40:07.920
<v Speaker 2>of people in the media, the Casey Newtons of the world,

0:40:08.120 --> 0:40:09.880
<v Speaker 2>the Caros Wishes of the world, the people claim in

0:40:09.920 --> 0:40:14.279
<v Speaker 2>this the early days of the internet again boo. I

0:40:14.320 --> 0:40:16.359
<v Speaker 2>think the thing we really need to do is make

0:40:16.400 --> 0:40:19.480
<v Speaker 2>our dispersure known to these tech companies. Find the feedback forms,

0:40:20.360 --> 0:40:22.839
<v Speaker 2>go online and talk about them. Say their names. Say

0:40:22.840 --> 0:40:25.399
<v Speaker 2>their names to the friends you have who are mad

0:40:25.440 --> 0:40:27.239
<v Speaker 2>at this too, which should be a lot of them.

0:40:27.680 --> 0:40:29.960
<v Speaker 2>Say their names again and again and again. You ask me,

0:40:30.280 --> 0:40:33.960
<v Speaker 2>how can things change? These people only have their names.

0:40:34.000 --> 0:40:35.840
<v Speaker 2>They have more money than any of us can mind,

0:40:36.080 --> 0:40:38.239
<v Speaker 2>they have all of this power, and as a result,

0:40:38.280 --> 0:40:41.000
<v Speaker 2>they actually only have their seo their names. How do

0:40:41.040 --> 0:40:43.920
<v Speaker 2>you think propagar Ragavan feels, by the way, when you

0:40:43.960 --> 0:40:46.640
<v Speaker 2>google his name and all you see is me, the

0:40:46.719 --> 0:40:50.000
<v Speaker 2>smiling man. I believe that enough of us just talking

0:40:50.040 --> 0:40:52.440
<v Speaker 2>shit on these people. And I don't mean being irate.

0:40:52.520 --> 0:40:55.080
<v Speaker 2>I don't mean making stuff up. We're not them. We

0:40:55.120 --> 0:40:57.840
<v Speaker 2>don't have to operate with lies. We can operate with truths,

0:40:58.239 --> 0:41:02.280
<v Speaker 2>such as Microsoft is propping up AI a venture welfare client.

0:41:02.840 --> 0:41:05.040
<v Speaker 2>All these people hate the poor so much, but they

0:41:05.080 --> 0:41:07.680
<v Speaker 2>love welfare when it means maybe making money or maybe

0:41:07.680 --> 0:41:10.640
<v Speaker 2>burning billions of dollars. So fuck their name's up. Talk

0:41:10.680 --> 0:41:12.359
<v Speaker 2>shit about them, Talk them to your friends. I don't

0:41:12.360 --> 0:41:14.600
<v Speaker 2>care if you mentioned better offline. Just tell people what

0:41:14.600 --> 0:41:17.520
<v Speaker 2>they've done. Tell people that Generative AI loses money on

0:41:17.600 --> 0:41:22.040
<v Speaker 2>every single fucking move. It's so sickening, it's so boring,

0:41:22.200 --> 0:41:25.360
<v Speaker 2>and it's most decidedly not the future. You are not

0:41:25.480 --> 0:41:28.719
<v Speaker 2>crazy if you don't think this is amazing. You're being

0:41:28.800 --> 0:41:32.520
<v Speaker 2>lied to. What you're seeing is a marketing campaign. And

0:41:32.600 --> 0:41:35.080
<v Speaker 2>I will continue to walk you through this stuff, and

0:41:35.160 --> 0:41:38.239
<v Speaker 2>if I'm wrong somehow, I will correct myself every goddamn time,

0:41:38.320 --> 0:41:41.239
<v Speaker 2>because I deeply care about giving you what I know

0:41:41.560 --> 0:41:44.080
<v Speaker 2>and what I've seen, and the things I've reported in

0:41:44.120 --> 0:41:46.960
<v Speaker 2>these two episodes scared the shit out of me, both

0:41:47.000 --> 0:41:49.279
<v Speaker 2>for the markets and the fact that so many rich

0:41:49.320 --> 0:41:52.840
<v Speaker 2>people are willing to be so goddamn stupid, and it

0:41:52.920 --> 0:41:55.760
<v Speaker 2>made me really angry because it shows such contempt, contempt

0:41:55.800 --> 0:41:58.239
<v Speaker 2>for the media and contempt for the user, and I

0:41:58.320 --> 0:42:01.840
<v Speaker 2>will not bloody accept it. It's such a pleasure to

0:42:01.880 --> 0:42:12.560
<v Speaker 2>do this show. I'm very lucky to do so. Thank

0:42:12.560 --> 0:42:15.280
<v Speaker 2>you for listening to Better Offline. The editor and composer

0:42:15.320 --> 0:42:18.160
<v Speaker 2>of the Better Offline theme song is Mattersowski. You can

0:42:18.200 --> 0:42:20.520
<v Speaker 2>check out more of his music and audio projects at

0:42:20.600 --> 0:42:24.080
<v Speaker 2>Mattasowski dot com M A T T O S O

0:42:24.760 --> 0:42:28.239
<v Speaker 2>W s KI dot com. You can email me at

0:42:28.239 --> 0:42:31.080
<v Speaker 2>easy at Better offline dot com, or visit Better Offline

0:42:31.080 --> 0:42:33.160
<v Speaker 2>dot com to find more podcast links and of course,

0:42:33.200 --> 0:42:36.319
<v Speaker 2>my newsletter. I also really recommend you go to chat

0:42:36.360 --> 0:42:39.000
<v Speaker 2>dot Where's youreed dot at to visit the discord, and

0:42:39.040 --> 0:42:41.720
<v Speaker 2>go to our slash Better Offline to check out our reddit.

0:42:42.520 --> 0:42:43.880
<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much for listening.

0:42:44.719 --> 0:42:47.400
<v Speaker 1>Better Offline is a production of cool Zone Media. For

0:42:47.520 --> 0:42:50.719
<v Speaker 1>more from cool Zone Media, visit our website cool Zonemedia

0:42:50.760 --> 0:42:53.600
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