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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Whoever wins the White House, I

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Speaker 1: just don't have much commence. They get much done anyway.

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Speaker 1: I don't care if it's right or it's left wing.

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Speaker 1: Equities from a logertive perspective are still the place to be.

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Speaker 1: But we're gonna see some volatility heading into the summer

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Speaker 1: and into the ball What we've got is a economy

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Speaker 1: that is already very dependent on those undocumented immigrants who

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Speaker 1: are here, and many of whom have been here for years.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the world of economics, finance,

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Speaker 1: and investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good running, I'm own Michael

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Speaker 1: mckaon Tom Keane Bloomberg Surveillance Worldwide across this Nation series

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Speaker 1: and x M Channel one nine. Good morning in Washington, Bloomberg,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg twelve hundred, Boston, Bloomberg eleven three oh in New

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Speaker 1: York on the West Coast. Good early morning in San Francisco,

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Speaker 1: s the Bay Area particular. Good morning to Philadelphia for

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Speaker 1: those listening on eleven three oh New York, and also

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Speaker 1: see your sex Channel one nineteen. It is always good

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Speaker 1: to speak to Jack Bogel and Will dive into that

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Speaker 1: UH in this our futures negative nine doubt futures negative

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Speaker 1: fifty seven UM as we begin a new hour of surveillance.

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Speaker 1: The four X Brief. It's marching by Interactive Broker's winner

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Speaker 1: of f X Week's two thousand fifteen award for the

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Speaker 1: best Retail for X trading platform, visit ib at I

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Speaker 1: b k R dot Com slash four X. I want

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Speaker 1: to get through this quickly, David Wilson. Is a busy

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Speaker 1: agenda today. Yen one six stronger yen a weeker dollar.

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Speaker 1: At the same UH time, hydrocarbon currencies finally give back

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Speaker 1: a little bit of the five six days of glory

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Speaker 1: they've had Canada one thirty three. I might also point

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Speaker 1: out Russian rubles seventy one fifty eight. That's a terror.

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Speaker 1: From eight to seventy one, somebody made money going along ruble.

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Speaker 1: You long ruble, David Wilson. I was not that was

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Speaker 1: not either, right. MS Commodity big debate this morning, Goldman

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Speaker 1: sax saying, maybe Bruno Stanzio with the Eraser group with

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Speaker 1: some thought on a bid on oil, do you have

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Speaker 1: any oil stucks today? Or I mean Chevron with her

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Speaker 1: kept spending couple. What do you have today, Well, we

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Speaker 1: might as well talk about a related industry then. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there's been for some time concerned about sun Edison's plans

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Speaker 1: to buy Vivin Solar for one point nine billion dollars.

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Speaker 1: Sun Edison focusing on utility sized solar plants, Vivian doing

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Speaker 1: roof rooftop solar installation. In fact, appellution management David Tepper

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Speaker 1: came out against the deal, and indeed his view prevailed

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Speaker 1: because UH Vivin backed out of the transaction yesterday. UH

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Speaker 1: set in a statement that sun Edison failed to meet obligations.

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Speaker 1: So you've got Vivian shares down four percentage you might

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Speaker 1: expect sun Edison that was up twenty and so are

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Speaker 1: two affiliates of sun edis than their own power plants.

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Speaker 1: There's Terraform Power, which is up twelve and a half percent,

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Speaker 1: and Terraform Global up four and a half percent. So

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Speaker 1: this is going over Well, just to stop here, you've

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Speaker 1: been following this for years with your good work at

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. Nobody makes money in this business from what

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Speaker 1: I can tell, I mean said, not even like the

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Speaker 1: biotext where they have a hope of selling to a

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Speaker 1: European pharmaceutical dumb enough to buy them. Well, with the

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Speaker 1: power plants, the bigger ones, there's at least some potential.

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Speaker 1: And then there was this whole push terraform both of

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Speaker 1: those companies and what they call yield cos uh. Sort

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Speaker 1: of equivalent to master limited partnerships. Uh, in the sense

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Speaker 1: that you know that solar companies could sell on their projects.

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Speaker 1: Give me something with cash flow? Oh please, Um, I've

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Speaker 1: got a couple more solar companies to talk about. And

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Speaker 1: our G Energy and Solar City. Uh. They signed contracts

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Speaker 1: to install rooftop systems and a whole foods markets, grocery

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Speaker 1: stores and distribution centers and our G Energy up three

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Speaker 1: a half percent. In Solar City up five percent. Royal

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Speaker 1: Caribbean Cruises down two and a half percent. Today is

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Speaker 1: the last day of trading for the cruise line owners

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Speaker 1: shares in Norway. Royal Caribbean has its main listing on

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Speaker 1: the New York Stock Exchange. Jet Blue Airways down five

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Speaker 1: and a half percent to carry a forecast first quarter

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Speaker 1: revenue for every seat and mile flown will fall at

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Speaker 1: least seven percent and possibly as much as eight percent

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Speaker 1: on that basis. February revenue dropped about ten percent, turning

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Speaker 1: to earnings really fast. Dick Sporting goes down three and

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Speaker 1: a half percent. The retailer's fiscal fourth quarter earnings and

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Speaker 1: sales failed to meet analysts average estimate and Bloomberg survey.

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Speaker 1: Dicks earnings workcast for this year also came up short

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Speaker 1: of projections. Urban Outfitters, though up eight and a half percent.

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Speaker 1: The Power Retailers earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter beat

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Speaker 1: analyst science testament and we should know shake Shack down

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Speaker 1: nine percent. The restaurant chain forecasting same store sales were

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Speaker 1: rise three percent this year at best, after climbing last

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Speaker 1: year by thirteen percent. David Wilson, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: Quickly appreciate it. It is always good to have a

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Speaker 1: number of guests. Michael mc key. Where the young guy

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Speaker 1: is the eighties seven in May. Uh, that's a that's

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Speaker 1: a good thing. Jack b Yeah. Well we had Sherman

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Speaker 1: greenspan On celebrating his ninetieth birthday, So let's go with

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Speaker 1: a young guy, Jack Bobluh this Jack, good morning, Good

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Speaker 1: morning Tom to hear your voice again. What wonderful to

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Speaker 1: talk to you. I'm just looking at a Bellweather active

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Speaker 1: manager that will be named nameless. They've got a great

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Speaker 1: five year upper death style track record, and all the

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Speaker 1: track record was made by not losing money in down markets.

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Speaker 1: How does passive investing do in down markets? Well, it

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Speaker 1: does really well. That We've had a lot of down

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Speaker 1: markets in my career and most recently in this one.

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Speaker 1: I just saw a piece of data from Morning Store

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Speaker 1: last evening and I think they said from high to low,

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Speaker 1: and the market was off maybe twelve points, and the

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Speaker 1: average mutual fund is off maybe fourteen. So it doesn't

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Speaker 1: you know, that's unusual. Usually when the market goes down

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Speaker 1: to the the index goes down just about as much

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Speaker 1: as the average fund because the costs don't have any

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Speaker 1: chance to come into play, the low cost different big

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Speaker 1: cost differential and when when the market goes down. But

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Speaker 1: this time, this last decline has been singularly good, with

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Speaker 1: the S and T doing much better than the average manager.

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Speaker 1: There is passive investing and then there's automated passive investing.

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Speaker 1: This is a new trend I've been looking at where

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Speaker 1: you can basically just have a direct deposit. Go to

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Speaker 1: one of these companies that does this, and they have

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Speaker 1: a passive investment system and you just stick the money

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Speaker 1: in and it goes in and the computer manages your money.

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Speaker 1: What do you think of that? Well, there are a

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Speaker 1: lot of varieties of it, but the big ones I

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Speaker 1: call them probably Betterment and Wealth Front and do a

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Speaker 1: pretty good job. They do it with exchange traded runs,

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Speaker 1: but they don't trade them, and that your money is

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Speaker 1: going to typically go into something like a sixty forty

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Speaker 1: stock bond portfolio with the stock index being a broad

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Speaker 1: index usually the S and P and the bond index

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Speaker 1: being the total bond market index. And so it's it's um,

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Speaker 1: it's it's basically passive passive investing using passive funds. Is

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Speaker 1: it a good idea to to uh have an automatic

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Speaker 1: investment plan like that and basically sort of set it

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Speaker 1: and forget it, uh not pay any attention to the markets, etcetera. Yes,

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Speaker 1: indeed that I mean that's basically my philosophy written large,

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Speaker 1: and don't do something, just stand there and stay the course.

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Speaker 1: You know, you know all I've been saying over the years, Tom,

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Speaker 1: and they're they're doing this in a little more formal way,

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Speaker 1: and they do claim and I believe deliver and the

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Speaker 1: ability to do tax lost harvesting harvesting which might add

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Speaker 1: a little value for the client their overall return. So

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Speaker 1: I think are gonna pretty much match the market industry.

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Speaker 1: They're not going to outpace the market by any material extent.

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Speaker 1: I'd be very surprised if they did. The clay all

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Speaker 1: looked pretty much the same, the big ones, the classic

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Speaker 1: book near twenty years ago, Common Sense on mutual funds

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Speaker 1: New imperatives for the intelligent investor? Is dividend growth your

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Speaker 1: new imperative? To get to clarify here, folks, year to

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Speaker 1: date eight seven percentile, one year nine six, I did

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Speaker 1: that's not a type of I just said that six percentile,

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Speaker 1: five year nine three percentile. Mr. Bogel. Dividend growth seems

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Speaker 1: to be working. Divd end growth does work. And divon

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Speaker 1: end growth. Let me see if I can broaden it

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Speaker 1: a little bit. If you look at the S and

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Speaker 1: p FI index, uh that divon end, the cash divon

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Speaker 1: end has gone up almost well. It's going up for

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Speaker 1: about them forty second of years, with a couple of mild,

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Speaker 1: very very mild declines and then a big decline in

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Speaker 1: nine when the bank stocks cut their dividends. And the

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Speaker 1: only thing that I think cut that year in the

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Speaker 1: in the SMP dividend. That's extraordinary, like anything else that

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Speaker 1: could happen again, and like everything else that has happened before,

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Speaker 1: back in the depression. But it's a very steady series,

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Speaker 1: and that's just buying the market yield and not going

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Speaker 1: for any particular growth pattern because dividends grow and it's

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Speaker 1: a powerful force. Uh is the best thing to use

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Speaker 1: E t S or is the best thing to um use?

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Speaker 1: You know, a fund that will invest for you well.

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Speaker 1: In e t F is an index fund that you

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Speaker 1: can trade all day long in real time as they're

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Speaker 1: at the early advertisements said, I don't agree that it's

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Speaker 1: a good good thing to trade mutual funds, and I

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Speaker 1: think most responsible commentator agree with me. Warren Buffett certainty,

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Speaker 1: the academics out in the out in California who have

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Speaker 1: done studies of the of the fact that the higher

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Speaker 1: your turnover is, the individuals portfolio turnover is the worst

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Speaker 1: their record is. So it's the ets to trade. But

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Speaker 1: if you don't trade them, um, they're fine, and they're

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Speaker 1: actually they actually worked pretty well. I think that part

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Speaker 1: of the E t F market is probably as low

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Speaker 1: as maybe that that may be in the high Jack,

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Speaker 1: Let's come back and continue this thought. We are with

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Speaker 1: Jack Bogel, of course for years associated with Van Guard,

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Speaker 1: without question, the inventor of passive investors. I'm gonna talk

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Speaker 1: to about leverage. We'll talk to Jack Bogel about leverage

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Speaker 1: here in a moment. Futures deteriorate negative eleven. Let's check

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Speaker 1: in with Michael Barr now and get the latest world

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Speaker 1: and national headlines. Mike Tom, thank you very much. Republican

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump and the Democrat Hillary Clinton are the favorite

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Speaker 1: heading into today's presidential primaries. Republicans will vote today in Michigan, Mississippi, Idaho,

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Speaker 1: and Hawaii. Democrats will vote in Michigan and Mississippi. A

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Speaker 1: jury as awarded sportscaster Aaron Andrews fifty five million dollars

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Speaker 1: in her lawsuit against the Nashville hotel Anna Stalker, who

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Speaker 1: secretly recorded a video of her in the nude. Andrews

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Speaker 1: had sued for seventy five million. The mayor of DeBerry, Florida,

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Speaker 1: says he wants to better understand what Cuban migrants go

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Speaker 1: through when crossing the Florida Straits. According to the Daytona

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Speaker 1: Beach News journal Mayor Clint Johnson plans to visit Cuba

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Speaker 1: next month and return home on a makeshift raft that

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Speaker 1: he will build Wild in Cuba. Global News twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours a day, powered by our hundred journalists more than

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Speaker 1: a hundred fifty news bureaus from around the world. How

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Speaker 1: Michael Barr to Michael Barr, thanks so much. Fishures de

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Speaker 1: tier a negative eleven down, futures negative seventy seven. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna call it a jumb little market. And you see

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Speaker 1: that typically the few days after the jobs report, Ruth

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Speaker 1: Jack Bogel. Stay with US Marcourt Drivers brought to you

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Speaker 1: by your Mercedes Benz Tri State Dealer. No matter what

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Speaker 1: the weather, Mercedes Benz Formatic all wheel Drive brings peace

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Speaker 1: of mind and driving confidence. This is your Mercedes Benz

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Speaker 1: Tri State Dealer for a test drive today,