WEBVTT - Buck Brief - Is Syria Becoming a Total Terrorist Hellhole? 0:00:11.697 --> 0:00:14.937 You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure 0:00:14.977 --> 0:00:17.977 you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or 0:00:18.017 --> 0:00:21.297 wherever you get your podcasts. The fall of the House 0:00:21.497 --> 0:00:26.177 of Assad in Syria and now it's under new management. 0:00:26.857 --> 0:00:30.577 We've got a bunch of Jiehattists, former perhaps who are 0:00:30.657 --> 0:00:33.897 running this country, which is in a very strategic geo 0:00:34.017 --> 0:00:36.777 political location. What's going to happen in Syria? What does 0:00:36.777 --> 0:00:38.057 it mean for us? What does it mean for the 0:00:38.057 --> 0:00:41.457 broader Mideast. We'll talk to our friend Bill Roggio about this. 0:00:41.537 --> 0:00:44.817 He is a senior editor at Long War Journal. Bill, 0:00:44.857 --> 0:00:47.537 first of all, we haven't really heard much about these 0:00:47.737 --> 0:00:50.417 rebels or whatever we're calling them today, in a while. 0:00:50.737 --> 0:00:52.617 And then all of a sudden, they take a Leppo 0:00:52.817 --> 0:00:54.537 and it's like, oh, yeah, these guys just took the 0:00:54.577 --> 0:00:58.057 second biggest city, second most important city in Syria. And 0:00:58.097 --> 0:01:01.057 then they took Damascus just a few days after that 0:01:01.097 --> 0:01:03.497 with it felt like barely a fight. Did anyone see 0:01:03.537 --> 0:01:04.657 this coming? How'd this happen? 0:01:06.137 --> 0:01:08.657 Hey, Buck, thanks for having me on. Yeah, this caught 0:01:08.697 --> 0:01:12.697 everyone by surprise. There was a ceasefire between the brutal 0:01:12.737 --> 0:01:15.417 Assad regime. That's you know, it's hard to not be 0:01:15.497 --> 0:01:19.417 happy that they're gone. And various so called rebel groups, 0:01:19.457 --> 0:01:24.297 one of them is fully inundated with jahattest organizations, another 0:01:24.457 --> 0:01:28.937 back by Turkey. They you know, we just had this law, 0:01:29.457 --> 0:01:34.697 and lo and behold. On November twenty seventh, the group 0:01:34.737 --> 0:01:39.337 hyatihirol Sham and the Syrian National Army, they coordinate in operation. 0:01:39.657 --> 0:01:44.057 They go against Assad's forces and within ten days they 0:01:44.057 --> 0:01:48.417 take Damascus. Assad flees to Russia. Why does this happen? 0:01:48.457 --> 0:01:52.017 Why did no one see this coming? It's a great question, Buck, 0:01:52.057 --> 0:01:54.337 and I don't have the answer. I think everybody was 0:01:54.377 --> 0:01:58.777 looking at a lot of different problems Russia, Ukraine, and 0:01:58.817 --> 0:02:01.737 then right in the region. You know, you have Israel 0:02:01.977 --> 0:02:07.297 and Hezbolah, Israel and Gaza against Hamas and is Palestinian 0:02:07.377 --> 0:02:13.617 Islamic Jihad, Israel and Iran trading blows, the houthis dominating 0:02:13.657 --> 0:02:18.337 the Red Sea, shutting down US shipping, international shipping, and 0:02:18.497 --> 0:02:21.457 I think a lot of intelligence agencies got stretched. I 0:02:21.497 --> 0:02:25.497 think the Turks saw an advantage here and they organized 0:02:25.497 --> 0:02:30.217 this offensive. They have their motivations, one of them, for one, 0:02:30.337 --> 0:02:34.497 anti Assad, and two the Kurdish groups that are control 0:02:34.577 --> 0:02:37.417 of large areas of northern and eastern Syria are their 0:02:37.657 --> 0:02:41.217 sworn enemies. So the Turks they saw an opportunity. They 0:02:41.297 --> 0:02:45.937 mustered their forces and they struck, and the Assad again 0:02:46.137 --> 0:02:49.417 collapsed like a house of card. Clearly Asad did nothing 0:02:49.497 --> 0:02:52.417 to improve his security forces. And then I would also 0:02:52.577 --> 0:02:55.897 argue that Iran has been distracted. It's been mired in 0:02:55.937 --> 0:03:00.777 a war in Lebanon and supporting Hezbolah and supporting the 0:03:01.977 --> 0:03:05.097 Houthis and the Red Sea and trying to get support 0:03:05.137 --> 0:03:08.657 to Gaza in exchanging blows with Israel. So I think 0:03:08.697 --> 0:03:13.697 you had Iran's focus taken away. Russia also deal you know, 0:03:13.737 --> 0:03:18.417 with a skeleton crew in Syria, dealing with its fighting 0:03:18.497 --> 0:03:20.777 in Ukraine. And you know, I think it's a masterful 0:03:20.817 --> 0:03:24.257 stroke by the Turks, and by no means, you know, 0:03:24.297 --> 0:03:29.777 I think we just exchanged one horrible regime for probably 0:03:29.857 --> 0:03:32.297 several horrible regimes. I don't think anyone's going to take 0:03:32.377 --> 0:03:34.417 full control of Syria. 0:03:34.217 --> 0:03:36.577 This well, let's let's get into some of this. This guy, 0:03:36.817 --> 0:03:40.217 Ahmed al Shara, who was formerly called Abu Muhammad al Jelani, 0:03:40.297 --> 0:03:43.377 that was his U nom Daguerre right, he is the 0:03:43.417 --> 0:03:48.937 head of Hayat Tarier al sham hts. He is for 0:03:49.097 --> 0:03:51.897 now de facto in charge, at least that's how it's 0:03:51.897 --> 0:03:56.177 being reported. They say that he was formerly affiliated with 0:03:56.337 --> 0:04:01.737 al Qaeda. Uh that feels, you know, when they're using 0:04:01.777 --> 0:04:06.297 the al Qaeda term here for somebody, it's really hard, 0:04:06.337 --> 0:04:08.097 I think, as in America not to say what the 0:04:08.097 --> 0:04:09.177 hell is going on here? 0:04:09.257 --> 0:04:11.937 So but what are we supposed to think about this guy? 0:04:13.297 --> 0:04:16.537 Yeah, we should think nothing that other than once a tarist, 0:04:16.617 --> 0:04:20.057 always a tarrist. I think a little background. I referred 0:04:20.057 --> 0:04:22.657 to him as the albumhamal Jilani or Jilani is all 0:04:22.777 --> 0:04:27.257 referred to him here. He went into Iraq after the 0:04:27.337 --> 0:04:30.417 US invasion, joined the ranks of al Qaeda. If he 0:04:30.497 --> 0:04:32.697 was not a member of al Qaeda even before the 0:04:32.737 --> 0:04:36.417 hand He's a Syrian and al Qaida had a significant 0:04:36.497 --> 0:04:43.017 network there it still does. He detained by the US 0:04:43.217 --> 0:04:46.977 and put in the Buka prison system, which is known 0:04:47.017 --> 0:04:50.697 as the University of Jihad in Iraq. Al Qaeda controlled 0:04:50.697 --> 0:04:55.417 those camps. Those prison camps, they indoctrinated, they trained, they 0:04:55.497 --> 0:04:59.897 recruited its leaders, and it's as well as its rank 0:04:59.977 --> 0:05:05.497 and file. What the Iraqi government freed him and sometime 0:05:05.537 --> 0:05:09.737 in twenty ten or eleven for reasons unknown, and he 0:05:09.777 --> 0:05:12.537 return come to Syria and he immediately took control of 0:05:12.577 --> 0:05:16.777 al Qaeda's branch there, and once the Arab spring began, 0:05:17.457 --> 0:05:21.817 he you know, became a major leader within the resistance 0:05:22.017 --> 0:05:26.537 or I won't call them resistance with the jahadist fighting 0:05:26.617 --> 0:05:31.417 the Issad regime. And he had a now he get this, 0:05:31.537 --> 0:05:35.257 but he was, yeah, go ahead, No, you go ahead. 0:05:35.377 --> 0:05:36.737 I don't want to jump in there, you said. He 0:05:36.777 --> 0:05:37.417 supported what. 0:05:38.537 --> 0:05:42.297 He reported to none other than Abu Baker al Baghdaddy, 0:05:42.417 --> 0:05:46.017 the Emir of the Islamic State. Abu Baker Our Baghdaddy 0:05:46.257 --> 0:05:49.977 was the head of al Qaeda in Iraq, which became 0:05:50.377 --> 0:05:54.017 known as the Islamic State in Iraq, and Bagdaddy wanted 0:05:54.017 --> 0:05:57.617 to control the Jahad in both Iraq and Syria. Jilani 0:05:57.817 --> 0:06:01.857 wanted to control the Jahad in Syria and leave Iraq 0:06:01.937 --> 0:06:06.537 to Bagdaddy. He took his Jilani took and Bagdaddy took 0:06:06.577 --> 0:06:09.697 the dispute to al Qaeda Amir, i'm in Ozawahiri, who's 0:06:11.857 --> 0:06:15.657 ok Osama bin Laden? Jilani won, He gained control of 0:06:15.657 --> 0:06:18.977 the Jahad and Syria created a group called Jabat al Nusra, 0:06:19.177 --> 0:06:23.417 the Ilnuser front that was Al Kaita's official branch in Syria. 0:06:23.537 --> 0:06:25.857 So it's quite a pedigree. You know, how are you 0:06:25.937 --> 0:06:30.057 a what you know, a former jihadis when you reported 0:06:30.097 --> 0:06:34.297 to Abu Baker al Baghdadi, the first emir in paliff 0:06:34.417 --> 0:06:35.577 of the Islamic stage. 0:06:35.697 --> 0:06:37.377 See, this is what I want to ask, is is 0:06:37.417 --> 0:06:41.457 this guy Jilani? I mean was he was he ordering 0:06:42.017 --> 0:06:47.177 you know, suicide bombings, captives to be you know, uh, 0:06:47.497 --> 0:06:50.857 mutilated and executed. I mean all the horrible stuff that 0:06:50.897 --> 0:06:54.537 we know Jihatis in Syria were doing some people. 0:06:54.617 --> 0:06:58.257 Yeah, by no means was he as public and as 0:06:58.337 --> 0:07:02.257 brutal as Bagdadi's crew in Iraq and Syria. But he 0:07:02.297 --> 0:07:06.337 did order suicide bombings, he did order the of the 0:07:06.377 --> 0:07:13.817 slaughter of civilians and captured Syrian troops. So he's you know, 0:07:13.897 --> 0:07:18.777 he is someone who is not to be trusted. You know, look, Buck, 0:07:18.817 --> 0:07:21.217 I don't think you know the former leader of the 0:07:21.257 --> 0:07:23.657 kk If you have the leader of the KKK, if 0:07:23.697 --> 0:07:26.697 he turned around tomorrow here in the United States and 0:07:26.777 --> 0:07:28.977 just said, you know, I'm not KKK anymore, you think 0:07:28.977 --> 0:07:31.577 he would really be accepted in the political fold. But 0:07:31.737 --> 0:07:34.617 somehow you could be a jihadis that orders suicide attacks 0:07:35.057 --> 0:07:38.577 and the murder of civilians, and here in the United 0:07:38.657 --> 0:07:42.017 States we could say he's okay, is he We could 0:07:42.057 --> 0:07:43.337 this is a guy we could work. 0:07:43.537 --> 0:07:45.817 It's just amazing to me that we're at this point 0:07:45.857 --> 0:07:49.537 where there's all this celebration over the ouster of Asad 0:07:49.617 --> 0:07:50.977 and then it's like, yeah, we've got this former al 0:07:51.017 --> 0:07:52.977 Qaida guy who's in charge. So let's come back to 0:07:52.977 --> 0:07:54.857 this in a second, because I'm wondering what you think 0:07:55.537 --> 0:07:57.457 is going to happen. Now you mentioned that there'll be 0:07:57.537 --> 0:07:59.737 kind of a few different governments, But we'll get to 0:07:59.817 --> 0:08:02.577 this in a second. 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All right, Bill, take 0:09:01.017 --> 0:09:03.937 out your national security analyst, Crystal Ball, if you would 0:09:03.937 --> 0:09:06.057 for me. What the heck happens to Syria? 0:09:06.177 --> 0:09:08.177 Now? What does this look like? 0:09:10.137 --> 0:09:12.697 Yeah? I think what you're going to see that Jilawni 0:09:12.737 --> 0:09:16.257 and his Hiati hero Sham they're going to consolidate control 0:09:16.297 --> 0:09:19.817 in that corridor, the M five Highway, which is you know, 0:09:19.897 --> 0:09:23.777 goes fronts from Damascus through Hums up to Aleppo and 0:09:23.897 --> 0:09:28.137 Idlib's the that's going to be the strong point of 0:09:28.297 --> 0:09:32.017 for the Hyatt to hero shamp the Syrian National Army 0:09:32.177 --> 0:09:37.857 very likely it cooperates with hyatihiro Sham, that's right, And 0:09:37.897 --> 0:09:40.377 it's taking the fight to the Kurds, which really are 0:09:41.177 --> 0:09:44.137 the PKK or the Kurdistan Workers Party by the way, 0:09:44.177 --> 0:09:48.057 which the US supports in this fight. But when I 0:09:48.137 --> 0:09:50.657 there's just no good guys here to support, this is 0:09:50.697 --> 0:09:54.737 the real problem. It's just a series of bad to worse. 0:09:54.817 --> 0:09:58.457 The PKK is a designated tourist organization for killing over 0:09:58.537 --> 0:10:01.177 fifty thousand people in Turkey. That's why the Turks have 0:10:01.297 --> 0:10:03.817 a dog in this fight, and they back jihadis to 0:10:03.857 --> 0:10:08.977 fight Marxist terrorists. So that the Syrian National Army, they're 0:10:09.017 --> 0:10:11.737 taking the fight to the to the PKK, what we 0:10:11.857 --> 0:10:13.697 call the Syrian Democratic. 0:10:13.457 --> 0:10:15.377 Are they up in the like bottled up in the 0:10:15.417 --> 0:10:17.897 north in the northeast? Is that basically where the PKK 0:10:18.057 --> 0:10:19.857 is operating still Okay, yes. 0:10:19.657 --> 0:10:21.737 They're operating out of the north and the northeast. That's 0:10:21.777 --> 0:10:24.577 where the Syrian National Army is strongest as well, so 0:10:24.657 --> 0:10:26.497 I can and then you have a couple of other 0:10:26.617 --> 0:10:29.897 independent rebel groups in the South. Some of them that 0:10:30.017 --> 0:10:34.857 do work coordinate with Hyati hero Sham. So I think 0:10:34.897 --> 0:10:39.057 you're gonna see these fiefdoms or the Balkanization of Syria, 0:10:39.137 --> 0:10:39.977 and so. 0:10:39.977 --> 0:10:42.297 It's a failed I mean, it's becomes a failed state, right, 0:10:42.297 --> 0:10:44.697 I mean, this is kind of like Libya post Kadafi then, 0:10:45.057 --> 0:10:47.177 which just turned into Militiaville. 0:10:48.337 --> 0:10:50.897 Yeah, Syria was already a failed state. You already had 0:10:50.937 --> 0:10:55.577 this Balkanization. You're just replacing a sad with Hyatai, hirol 0:10:55.617 --> 0:10:59.937 Sham and Jiulani, so they get an expanded Hyatti Ero 0:11:00.057 --> 0:11:04.137 Sham was confined to this northeastern quarter corridor or corner 0:11:04.257 --> 0:11:08.977 of the of northeastern Syria, and the Turks gave them protection. 0:11:09.217 --> 0:11:11.337 So if you think the Turks are the good guys 0:11:11.377 --> 0:11:14.377 in this one for going after the PKK again, it's 0:11:14.377 --> 0:11:17.417 hard to pick a winner in Syria. We shouldn't even try. 0:11:17.537 --> 0:11:22.657 Where are the nine hundred Americans that, as I understand it, 0:11:22.657 --> 0:11:26.057 are still in Syria US soldiers and talking about here, 0:11:26.257 --> 0:11:29.457 we're still in Syria and what is their mission set? 0:11:29.537 --> 0:11:29.977 Right now? 0:11:31.377 --> 0:11:34.537 They are primarily along the border of Iraq and in 0:11:34.657 --> 0:11:38.657 northeastern Syria. So there's a I'm on this one area 0:11:38.657 --> 0:11:42.257 in the tanif these are actually Orab militias that we 0:11:42.377 --> 0:11:45.697 coordinate with, and then they're working with the PKK or 0:11:45.737 --> 0:11:50.097 the SDF, the Syrian Democratic Forces in northeastern Syria, so 0:11:50.097 --> 0:11:53.897 they're at a smattering of bases in that area, they 0:11:53.977 --> 0:12:01.497 primarily primarily rely on the SDF for their ground security. 0:12:02.777 --> 0:12:05.697 I'm very concerned. I have been. The Iraqi militias have 0:12:05.737 --> 0:12:10.657 been attacking them. What happens when these Turkish back, if 0:12:10.697 --> 0:12:14.857 they start advancing on the areas where American bases are, 0:12:14.857 --> 0:12:16.977 are they going to give them wide birth? You know, 0:12:17.097 --> 0:12:18.817 I don't know, and I don't want to find out. 0:12:18.857 --> 0:12:22.497 We've had American soldiers killed, a couple killed, and several 0:12:22.537 --> 0:12:26.897 wounded in a variety of attacks from from the Iraqi militias. Well, 0:12:26.897 --> 0:12:30.617 the Iraqi militias, these are Iranian backed, they're Iraqi militias. 0:12:30.657 --> 0:12:34.497 Are they going to reinitiate attacks? That's it. It's it's 0:12:34.577 --> 0:12:35.097 just an option. 0:12:35.217 --> 0:12:36.697 At let me sketch this because I think a lot 0:12:36.737 --> 0:12:38.577 of people that are watching or listening, this is the 0:12:38.577 --> 0:12:40.857 thing that they would want you to you to wrestle 0:12:40.897 --> 0:12:43.057 with right now. I mean, should we just pull out 0:12:43.057 --> 0:12:46.577 whatever American presence we have just say you know, audios, 0:12:46.617 --> 0:12:49.097 we're done here and just let the chips fall where 0:12:49.097 --> 0:12:51.537 they may. Is that is that the best option for 0:12:51.577 --> 0:12:52.897 the incoming Trump administration. 0:12:54.097 --> 0:12:56.417 I think it's one of the two best options. The 0:12:56.457 --> 0:12:59.417 first option is that leave and let the chips fall 0:12:59.457 --> 0:13:02.657 as it may. We may be forced to leave if 0:13:02.697 --> 0:13:08.337 the Syrian National Army continue is successful against the Syrian 0:13:08.377 --> 0:13:13.857 Democratic Forces. If we are to stay. Now, the purpose 0:13:13.897 --> 0:13:17.057 of that mission of those troops there primarily is to 0:13:17.057 --> 0:13:22.497 fight the Islamic State, and what happens if we leave. 0:13:22.577 --> 0:13:24.937 We saw what happened when the Islamic State took over 0:13:25.057 --> 0:13:28.097 large areas of Syria. That didn't work out well for you. 0:13:28.137 --> 0:13:31.177 So we do have a legitimate and national security need there. 0:13:31.577 --> 0:13:33.537 But there's another part of this too, So if we 0:13:33.577 --> 0:13:35.217 are going to stay, we need to beef it up 0:13:35.697 --> 0:13:39.257 these bases. They maybe should be consolidated, and I would 0:13:39.257 --> 0:13:42.177 want a significant ground from maybe a battalion of troops 0:13:42.897 --> 0:13:46.977 at each base in order to protect our forces there. 0:13:47.017 --> 0:13:51.217 But they've been they've been strung out across Syria. I 0:13:51.257 --> 0:13:54.337 think it's very dangerous if we're not willing to reinforce them. 0:13:54.337 --> 0:13:58.777 Bucket's really difficult for me to argue to keep those 0:13:58.817 --> 0:14:02.017 troops in Syria. There's one more thing. The US is 0:14:02.057 --> 0:14:05.377 talking about leaving Iraq. By twenty twenty six the Biden 0:14:05.417 --> 0:14:08.337 administration signed an agreement with the Iraqi government, and if 0:14:08.337 --> 0:14:11.417 that is the Trump administration follows ruin that there's no way. 0:14:11.457 --> 0:14:13.737 They may just have to leave by default because they 0:14:13.737 --> 0:14:16.217 can't be supported without the US presence. Interac. 0:14:17.257 --> 0:14:19.857 Let's come back into I want to know to the 0:14:19.857 --> 0:14:23.337 degree we can describe it, the differences between the Islamic 0:14:23.377 --> 0:14:27.457 state and the people that comprised it, which Trump helped 0:14:27.497 --> 0:14:30.977 smash US military back in twenty sixteen, and the people 0:14:30.977 --> 0:14:34.817 who have now taken over in Syria and have taken 0:14:34.857 --> 0:14:37.097 over Damascus. We'll get there in a second. At first, 0:14:37.137 --> 0:14:40.177 our sponsor here is IFCJ, the International Fellowship of Christians 0:14:40.177 --> 0:14:40.577 and Jews. 0:14:40.577 --> 0:14:42.177 They wish you a blessed beginning. 0:14:41.897 --> 0:14:44.057 Of the holiday season as you gather with family, friends, 0:14:44.297 --> 0:14:46.657 and all those who are grateful for God's blessings. 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Please consider standing with Israel 0:15:14.897 --> 0:15:17.177 and the Jewish people. Go to support I f CJ 0:15:17.337 --> 0:15:19.777 dot org to make a gift now that support I 0:15:19.897 --> 0:15:22.297 f c J dot org or give at eight eight 0:15:22.297 --> 0:15:24.657 eight four eight eight I f c J. That's eight 0:15:24.657 --> 0:15:28.497 eight eight four eight eight I f c J. All right, Bill, 0:15:28.537 --> 0:15:32.617 So is can we even tell what the difference between 0:15:32.937 --> 0:15:39.777 ISIS remnants, Nusra Front u HTS, you know, is are 0:15:39.817 --> 0:15:42.017 there people that have fought in all of these and 0:15:42.017 --> 0:15:44.377 and what do they really want other than control of Syria? 0:15:44.457 --> 0:15:46.657 Well that do we do we have some reason to 0:15:46.657 --> 0:15:49.577 believe that's sufficient. Do they want to become some kind 0:15:49.657 --> 0:15:53.137 of a you know, platform for the global jihad? I mean, 0:15:53.297 --> 0:15:55.217 what are the what are the risk factors as you 0:15:55.257 --> 0:15:57.697 see it. As you see it, there's. 0:15:57.577 --> 0:16:01.817 Only degrees of difference between the Hiati heral Sham and 0:16:01.857 --> 0:16:04.457 the Islamic State. They share the same call as fuck. 0:16:04.897 --> 0:16:08.777 They want to establish their first or Islamic emirate in 0:16:08.897 --> 0:16:13.217 Syria and then create a global caliphate. Look, the Jilani 0:16:13.337 --> 0:16:18.097 and crew don't cast this aside just because he gets 0:16:18.297 --> 0:16:23.497 cast as being a pragmatic leader. When Jilani supposedly broke 0:16:23.577 --> 0:16:25.777 with al Qaeda, he did it with the senior al 0:16:25.817 --> 0:16:28.897 Qaeda leaders sitting at its side. He had the approval 0:16:29.017 --> 0:16:31.417 of al Qaeda. So al Kita viewed this as a 0:16:31.457 --> 0:16:34.817 pragmatic move to soften the groups that it could receive 0:16:34.897 --> 0:16:38.497 foreign support. Remember the Taliban, how we fell for it, 0:16:38.577 --> 0:16:40.417 buck right, Not you and I and not I'm sure 0:16:40.457 --> 0:16:44.137 not your listeners, but the Biden administration, even the Trump 0:16:44.177 --> 0:16:46.537 administration and cutting the deal with the Taliban. It was 0:16:46.577 --> 0:16:50.377 a bad deal. It was a mistake, and we thought 0:16:50.377 --> 0:16:52.457 they were moderate. We thought that that was a group 0:16:52.497 --> 0:16:54.457 we can work with if we couldn't figure it out 0:16:54.457 --> 0:16:57.257 that the Taliban were bad. To me, it's no surprise 0:16:57.337 --> 0:16:59.897 that someone like Jilani is going to dupe us. But 0:17:00.217 --> 0:17:04.217 make no mistake, he's a hardcore Jahatis. There are foreign 0:17:04.257 --> 0:17:07.297 fight he claims there's no foreign fighters and he has 0:17:07.337 --> 0:17:09.817 no connections. That's what he said during the break. We 0:17:09.857 --> 0:17:12.457 don't don't have any links to external groups. He didn't 0:17:12.457 --> 0:17:14.977 say I did announce al Kaeda, I renounced my oath 0:17:14.977 --> 0:17:18.737 of allegiance. He said, we just don't have external links. Meanwhile, 0:17:18.777 --> 0:17:22.057 there are al Qaeda groups that are fighting both within 0:17:22.337 --> 0:17:26.137 Jilani's rank and file as well as alongside them in Syria. 0:17:26.697 --> 0:17:29.497 This is this is the same playbook that that's basically 0:17:29.577 --> 0:17:32.537 the same playbook that the Taliban used to convince us 0:17:32.537 --> 0:17:35.457 that we could leave Afghanistan and everything will be fine. 0:17:35.617 --> 0:17:37.897 We now know there's al Qaeda training camps and a 0:17:37.937 --> 0:17:43.017 whole host of infrastructure which I've documented in Afghanistan. 0:17:43.217 --> 0:17:44.577 I guess thing is a good place to ask you 0:17:44.577 --> 0:17:46.657 about how things are going in Afghanistan. Sounds like not 0:17:46.697 --> 0:17:47.337 so good. 0:17:48.137 --> 0:17:51.137 Not so good. Yeah, the last the UN should issue 0:17:51.177 --> 0:17:54.017 another report. The last report issued over the summer, al 0:17:54.057 --> 0:17:57.057 Qaeda was operating training camps in twelve provinces. So that's 0:17:57.097 --> 0:18:00.177 not twelve trading camps. But I know at least one 0:18:00.177 --> 0:18:03.177 province has four training camps. Things are so much worse 0:18:03.217 --> 0:18:04.497 than they wear pre nine to eleven. 0:18:04.577 --> 0:18:07.177 What are they I know this is going to sound 0:18:07.177 --> 0:18:09.057 to people like a dumb question, but I think it's 0:18:09.097 --> 0:18:11.177 an important question to just sort of get us back. 0:18:11.777 --> 0:18:13.497 What are they training for? Bill? 0:18:15.537 --> 0:18:20.857 They're training for global Jahad fighters from Afghanistan. Groups like 0:18:20.857 --> 0:18:24.097 the Turkistan Islama Party, which is an El Qaeda affiliate. 0:18:24.417 --> 0:18:29.617 It's leader, Abdulahak al Turkistani, sits on Al Kaita's central 0:18:29.657 --> 0:18:33.257 shore or it's central governing committee. He sends fighters, and 0:18:33.297 --> 0:18:37.137 there's a whole Turkistan Islamic Party contingent that fights in Syria. 0:18:37.457 --> 0:18:41.577 They use it to train, to refit and to plan 0:18:41.697 --> 0:18:45.777 their operations. Now what you'll hear from people to bomb administration, Well, 0:18:45.817 --> 0:18:48.697 they haven't launched, we haven't detected any plots. They haven't launched. 0:18:48.937 --> 0:18:52.697 Assume you mean the Biden administration, right, although probably a 0:18:52.737 --> 0:18:54.737 lot a lot of cross over there too, But anyway, 0:18:54.737 --> 0:18:56.097 go ahead, Yeah. 0:18:55.657 --> 0:18:58.057 My bad. They would have said the same thing if 0:18:58.057 --> 0:19:00.657 they would have withdrew from Afghanistan. They're telling us that 0:19:00.697 --> 0:19:03.417 they're not a problem because they haven't detected any plots. 0:19:03.697 --> 0:19:06.417 I don't just remind people that between the first World 0:19:06.497 --> 0:19:09.577 Trade Center attack and the second World Trade Center attack 0:19:09.897 --> 0:19:10.697 was eight years. 0:19:12.257 --> 0:19:14.897 So do you I mean, look, you study these guys. 0:19:15.017 --> 0:19:17.337 You study these guys every day. I used to Bill 0:19:17.377 --> 0:19:19.377 as you know, but I'm out of the game now, 0:19:19.457 --> 0:19:22.217 right Like I'm like a I'm like a guy who 0:19:22.217 --> 0:19:24.857 did his time as a patrolman on the streets and 0:19:24.897 --> 0:19:26.337 now you know, I don't know what's going on in 0:19:26.377 --> 0:19:29.097 these mean streets. I'm sort of in retirement from the 0:19:29.177 --> 0:19:34.097 CT world. Do you really think, I mean, honestly, do 0:19:34.097 --> 0:19:37.697 you really think that they're gearing up to start another 0:19:37.777 --> 0:19:41.377 war with you know, the West and America and her 0:19:41.417 --> 0:19:44.817 allies and everything else, given what the last twenty years have. 0:19:44.817 --> 0:19:45.577 Looked like for them? 0:19:45.657 --> 0:19:48.417 Or you know what, what's your real feeling on that, 0:19:48.457 --> 0:19:50.297 because it just feels like, wow, you. 0:19:50.257 --> 0:19:52.217 Guys really want to do this again? You really want 0:19:52.257 --> 0:19:52.857 to do this again? 0:19:54.057 --> 0:19:57.217 Well, we look, we operate in terms of election cycles 0:19:57.217 --> 0:19:59.377 of two and four years. They operate in terms of 0:19:59.457 --> 0:20:05.017 decades and generations. They're keeping their goal ultimate goal is 0:20:05.057 --> 0:20:07.897 to establish a global califate to impose its first harsh 0:20:07.977 --> 0:20:11.977 version of Sharia or Islamic law, and on all how 0:20:12.017 --> 0:20:14.257 they do that, they do it by forming emirates. What 0:20:14.377 --> 0:20:18.057 is Afghanistan today, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. What did 0:20:18.137 --> 0:20:21.857 Jilani declare and his fighters declare in Syria? The Islamic 0:20:21.897 --> 0:20:25.537 Emirate in Syria Right now, they're focusing on the near 0:20:25.977 --> 0:20:29.057 They put aside the far enemy, right, the near enemy, 0:20:29.097 --> 0:20:32.897 build those build those calphits. They're not directly. Al Qaeda 0:20:33.017 --> 0:20:35.857 is far more clever and far more patient. The Islamic 0:20:35.857 --> 0:20:39.497 State's mistake and its demise came because it came out 0:20:39.497 --> 0:20:42.817 the gates swinging and it decided to take It was 0:20:42.857 --> 0:20:45.257 an easy target. It was a lightning rod for us. 0:20:45.617 --> 0:20:48.657 Al Kaeda has taken a more patient and more clever approach. 0:20:49.257 --> 0:20:52.657 Just because they're not plotting or executing an attack here 0:20:52.657 --> 0:20:56.057 in the United States today or attacking an embassy today 0:20:56.537 --> 0:20:59.497 doesn't mean that what next week, next month, or next 0:20:59.537 --> 0:21:02.137 year that isn't going to happen. They didn't stop being 0:21:02.217 --> 0:21:05.857 our enemies just because we disengage from Afghanistan, because we 0:21:05.977 --> 0:21:09.777 disengage from Iraq, just because we're seeking to and the 0:21:09.897 --> 0:21:13.537 so called endless wars. You know, it takes two to 0:21:13.577 --> 0:21:15.937 fight a war, and al Qaeda hasn't stopped, They've just 0:21:16.137 --> 0:21:19.497 they've changed their tactics. It actually, they've never really changed. 0:21:19.497 --> 0:21:22.897 They've always focused on the near enemy first. That's where 0:21:22.897 --> 0:21:26.257 they've always focused ninety five percent of their effort. And 0:21:26.297 --> 0:21:29.457 I think that's something that's really misunderstood by tenth counter 0:21:29.577 --> 0:21:33.137 terrorism analysts. 0:21:32.977 --> 0:21:34.897 It's not feeling like it's going so well in the 0:21:34.937 --> 0:21:37.777 Middle East as the Trump administration is about to take 0:21:37.817 --> 0:21:39.617 hold of though there are some bright spots, right, I mean, 0:21:39.657 --> 0:21:45.537 the the diminishing of Hesbola and Hamas military capability very strong. 0:21:45.737 --> 0:21:47.617 Iran is far less of a. 0:21:49.257 --> 0:21:53.177 Of a sort of a proxy, you know, the terror 0:21:53.297 --> 0:21:55.297 proxies are whatever you want to call them. I mean, 0:21:55.297 --> 0:21:58.017 they're not able to do what they were before. So 0:21:58.137 --> 0:22:02.497 do you feel like overall the Middle East as we're 0:22:02.537 --> 0:22:07.097 coming into this new administration speaking of administration cycles, is 0:22:05.897 --> 0:22:10.057