1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom keene Jailey. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Mark 5 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: Howard Bamp powered by Senior Multi Assets Especialist seven five. 6 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:34,560 Speaker 1: Usually it breaks down at seven o two. Mark, great 7 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 1: to have you with us. Looking down to Washington day, 8 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 1: same up. Throw the distinction for us between noise and news. 9 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 1: I can promise you I'm not gonna sing thanks for 10 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: having me today. You know, there's a lot of noise. 11 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:52,480 Speaker 1: I like to use the analogy of the wonderful French 12 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: open at BMP is proud to sponsor. There's a lot 13 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 1: of back and forth in d C, and the markets 14 00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 1: have had to respond to it. There's been uh uh, 15 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 1: you know, a series of headlines, whether it's around the 16 00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:06,400 Speaker 1: Supreme Court, around the president's taxes and and who knows 17 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: what else is going to come out of the debate tomorrow. 18 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: But investors have pulled back. There's no question, and I 19 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 1: think that's a really important theme for your viewers to 20 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 1: grapple with is that there was a long bullish run 21 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 1: led by Nasadac, but also in in the credit markets 22 00:01:22,080 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 1: and and in other parts of fixed income, and now 23 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: people have pulled back a little bit. September has been 24 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: a month of consolidation, and I think October will be 25 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 1: the same. It's gonna be bumpy, and tomorrow night we're 26 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 1: gonna get a full dose to that murk Howard, I 27 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 1: want to digress here. You were kind of have to 28 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 1: send me a wonderful coffee mug from the Oyster people 29 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:44,959 Speaker 1: up on the Dammers. God of the Gliden Oyster people. 30 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 1: They are at absolute textbooks small business. How bad is 31 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: small business like glib and Oyster getting crushed right now? Well, 32 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 1: it is a genuine concern, as you've heard, and I 33 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 1: think you also might have heard Boston At President Eric 34 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 1: rosen Grin speak last last week saying how uh, some 35 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: of the lending programs to small businesses have not having 36 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 1: as big a take up as as some might have thoughts. So, 37 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:12,640 Speaker 1: I think there's a there's a lot of stress in 38 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:16,119 Speaker 1: the system, and you hear that from voters. You see 39 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 1: that in some of the protests on both sides of 40 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:20,919 Speaker 1: the Aisle and U and there's a lot of anxiety, 41 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 1: especially with the October one rolloff of of support. You've 42 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 1: you've you've heard the airline companies speak very vocally about 43 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 1: their need for additional fiscal support from Washington, and the 44 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 1: same is true for small business. Well, a lot of 45 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:36,720 Speaker 1: people agree it's going to be a rocky period going forward, 46 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:38,839 Speaker 1: even Mike Wilson, who has been a bull for most 47 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:40,640 Speaker 1: of this year of Morgan Stanley coming out over the 48 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 1: weekend and saying he expects the sell off to continue. 49 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 1: Where do you get defensive and how do you just 50 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:49,360 Speaker 1: go to cash or do you depend and say the 51 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 1: tenure Treasury to do more than just flatline. Well, as 52 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,200 Speaker 1: as you guys are laughing earlier, the tenure has been 53 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 1: kind of boring lately. So I don't think there's been 54 00:02:57,960 --> 00:02:59,679 Speaker 1: a lot of money going into that. I do think 55 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 1: people want optimum liquidity at least. It's a great question 56 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:06,200 Speaker 1: because when you talk to the major fund managers, what's 57 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: really critical to realize is that their year was made 58 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:13,280 Speaker 1: in March and April. They made a lot of money 59 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 1: stepping into the breach, exploiting volatility and uncertainty in turbulence 60 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: and so in order to do that again if we 61 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 1: have it in October or around the election in November, 62 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:26,519 Speaker 1: they need pure liquidity. And so I think you're gonna 63 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 1: see it in cash, You're gonna see it in money 64 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:32,359 Speaker 1: markets and in short term T bills and short notes. Well, Mark, 65 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,840 Speaker 1: let's talk about where the gap could be that they 66 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 1: might fill high yield spreads. Just winding a little bit, 67 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 1: you know, I don't want to make too much a 68 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 1: big deal of this. I don't think it's significant yet, 69 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: but it's not insignificant what we saw last week, Mark, 70 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 1: concerning that the fetes now a player. Your thoughts on 71 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 1: the cracks that emerged in the last week or sun, Yeah, 72 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 1: I think they're They were pretty broad. It wasn't just 73 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 1: you know, softening invaluations. There was the first outflow in 74 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 1: high yielding in some time. UH. We watched the credit 75 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 1: derivatives and marketplace closely, and we saw an increase in 76 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 1: interest for um UH for credit protection in the options market, 77 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 1: and we also saw a reduction in the longs of 78 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 1: the c d X I G. So I think there 79 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 1: are a number of signals, and of course the emerging 80 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:18,160 Speaker 1: markets had some softness. So I think UH you know, 81 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 1: there are a number of places that you could see 82 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 1: further weakening, uh in the event that we have a 83 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:27,679 Speaker 1: lot of instability and questions, particularly around constitutional issues, because 84 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 1: that's not a playbook that investors have much history with. 85 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:33,920 Speaker 1: Right the virus was a big unknown, but at least 86 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:35,680 Speaker 1: the FED could address that. The Fed's not in a 87 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:38,800 Speaker 1: position really to address a constitutional issue if in fact 88 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:41,160 Speaker 1: that comes to pass. Mark, what's the measurement of your 89 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 1: wall of worry right now? I mean, hasn't short interest 90 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 1: in all this? I mean, folks, the SMP five based 91 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 1: off futures of forty two is down a horrific seven percent. 92 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 1: Oh the humanity, I mean, Mark, I mean we're down 93 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 1: seven on sp X right now. And am I right? 94 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:58,599 Speaker 1: There's just been a massive swing to a short bet. 95 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,680 Speaker 1: I think I don't know about that time. I think 96 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:04,920 Speaker 1: there's been more just taking some chips off the table 97 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 1: in certain names there. I'm sure there have been some 98 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 1: idiosyncratic short beets put on, but I think a little 99 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:12,920 Speaker 1: bit of steam blowing out of the system is a 100 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:15,039 Speaker 1: healthy thing. So I'm my wall of warrior is not 101 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,039 Speaker 1: that high. I think the odds of a of a 102 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 1: major disruption later this year are quite low, and that's 103 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:24,359 Speaker 1: why valuations are still so attractive or so full in 104 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 1: many asset classes. My point though, is that late in 105 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 1: the year after investors have done pretty well, particularly since March, 106 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:35,039 Speaker 1: it's just human nature to take some chips off the table. 107 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:37,919 Speaker 1: So and I think the lesson learned back then was 108 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 1: when you send some anxiety, you need some liquidity, you 109 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 1: need to be prepared to pounce. And so that's what 110 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:47,359 Speaker 1: prudent investors are doing um and and it's augmented a 111 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 1: little bit by quarter end the end of September and 112 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:52,720 Speaker 1: Mark christ cash up as always going to see them, 113 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 1: how on the license in this market. I was in 114 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 1: the vite well on Friday and she couldn't make the 115 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,360 Speaker 1: nine Inhestan show, So this was third choice for Lale. 116 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 1: Lolle with us this morning and I can share it 117 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 1: with you. Thanks. A lot of fund manager joined us 118 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 1: right now, A lot of great to catch up. You've 119 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 1: got that dashboard you're looking at high you'd spreads. We've 120 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,120 Speaker 1: had a move about forty basis points over the last 121 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 1: week or so. When does it start to say by 122 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: again to you? Well, I was just gonna pitch for 123 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 1: Tom's triple lovered cash funds over here. Is that what 124 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 1: you're doing cash? No? No, I mean we we're keeping 125 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:37,040 Speaker 1: our cash reserves. Right. The reality is cash is king. Right. 126 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:40,320 Speaker 1: Don't let anybody tell you anything else, because as you 127 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: and I we've spoken about this, there's no such thing 128 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: as cash on the sidelines, and liquidity in the markets 129 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:49,720 Speaker 1: are poor. So for people to be opportunistic to take 130 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:53,599 Speaker 1: advantage of these locations, you have to have cash, whether 131 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 1: that's cash or you're sitting in treasuries. You need to 132 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:59,600 Speaker 1: have something that's immediately sellable, and unfortunately, credit is not 133 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 1: one of the those asset classes. So the way we 134 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: are looking at it is really in our view, high 135 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:11,240 Speaker 1: yield still screens expensive. But the key theme in high 136 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 1: yield is played the refinancing. So these double bees and 137 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: single bees that are indefensive, that have yield to call paper, 138 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:21,880 Speaker 1: that believe it or not, only maybe yields more than 139 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: five and a half percent. Five and a half percent 140 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: coupon is now quote unquote high coupon. They are in 141 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 1: the market to refinance. And I think for us that 142 00:07:30,280 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 1: the last hurrah in high yield to capture a little 143 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 1: bit more income than investment grade before perhaps we turn 144 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: even more barish on high yield it's subject economic recovery. Solanly, 145 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 1: you would turn even more barish. What kind of spread 146 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 1: are you looking for on high yield potentially at the moment, 147 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: at the moment where about five forty, what kind of 148 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 1: levels are you waiting for? Well, five forty it's it's misleading, right, 149 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 1: It has you know, it has double bees that trade 150 00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 1: in two hundred and three hundred range that everybody else 151 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 1: is hiding out, and none of you have the industries 152 00:08:02,640 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 1: that are at the epicenter of recovery, leisure, entertainment, transportation 153 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 1: that trades you know, multiples of that, right, So half 154 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: of the high yield index is subject to the recovery. 155 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 1: So you have to be really careful how you how 156 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 1: you pick your spots in this I mean the example 157 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 1: I'll give you. You You just said the high yield markets 158 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 1: are wider by forty and fifty basis points over the 159 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: last week the recovery themes last week wide and three 160 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,319 Speaker 1: x that. Right, So when you are entering at this 161 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:36,200 Speaker 1: point in time, knowing what you know, you have to 162 00:08:36,200 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 1: be really careful because the upside downside is just not 163 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 1: um justified. So fair value high yield believe it or not, 164 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:47,560 Speaker 1: I think it's still in the seven hundreds. Well, this 165 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:50,960 Speaker 1: raises a really good point which John touchdown earlier, which 166 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 1: is the market is wondering what more the FED could 167 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 1: do to backstop credit given how much they've done already. 168 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 1: And have we reached this point, Lolly where any FED 169 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 1: put is baked dan and any additional purchases they do 170 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 1: will be peripheral and won't make a material difference and 171 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 1: spread spread narrowing. I mean, the market will respond to 172 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: incremental news as you guys highlight. So I think the 173 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 1: FED what is baked in's I mean, you know that 174 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: their purchases have slowed down, but that's in line with 175 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 1: their statement um and I think there will be there 176 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:23,080 Speaker 1: to backstop the market. But remember they're actually redumpantly back 177 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 1: stopping investment grade. They are back stopping high yield very little. 178 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 1: Through the high yield e t f s and the 179 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:34,000 Speaker 1: fallen angels. That's a very different dynamic, and again it 180 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 1: opened the refinancing gates for the higher quality. There's very 181 00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:40,559 Speaker 1: little near term maturity that's left for the high yield 182 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 1: companies if anything. Actually, look at the headlines in the 183 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 1: last two weeks. The quality companies are going for M 184 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 1: and A LBO and strategic financing, so credit nobody works 185 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:55,439 Speaker 1: for the bond holders, right, everybody works for the equity holders. 186 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 1: And I think that's the risk you take now on 187 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 1: the higher quality the the focus is going to shift. 188 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 1: What's so important here, folks, is the bloomer has got 189 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 1: lots of fancy stuff that Lolly is really good at. 190 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:10,439 Speaker 1: One of them is eh Z one, the horizon analysis chart. Lolly, 191 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 1: I just put in the thing Pararell bought a couple 192 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:15,119 Speaker 1: of years ago, which is a ninety eight year Austrian 193 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 1: peace and he's made a hundred and twenty one percent. 194 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: That's why Pharaoll is looking and nodding. Hill. I mean 195 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 1: he's killed it with that Austrian by a hundred d 196 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 1: I think two eleven. Then rates will go the other way. 197 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:31,679 Speaker 1: Explain to our audience what happens if we actually get 198 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 1: yield up priced down? What does that do to the 199 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 1: horizon analysis? I mean that's the problem with the Broidery 200 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:42,840 Speaker 1: investment grade markets, right, I mean the lower coupons met 201 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: every company was issuing longer and longer, and as a results, 202 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:47,959 Speaker 1: I mean, I think this is also one of Lisa's 203 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 1: favorite charts. If you'll look at the average ration in 204 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:55,080 Speaker 1: the in the indices in the global agg indusees, it's 205 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 1: over eight and a half years. And look at the 206 00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 1: spreads which are not tight, divide on by the two 207 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,840 Speaker 1: you your break even point, and if you look at 208 00:11:02,920 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 1: it historically, it's around twelve basis points on the break 209 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 1: even point. That is your resistance point. And some of 210 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 1: these investment grade companies, you're not getting paid for the 211 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 1: credit risk, so increasingly you're taking not only credit risk, 212 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 1: but you're all taking a rate risk, and that could 213 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 1: be very dangerous. Now, rates may never rise, that's entirely possible, 214 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:25,679 Speaker 1: but people have to walk into this trade eyes wide open, 215 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 1: just to find a question. For me, when you say 216 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 1: seven hundred basis points fair value? Is that what you 217 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:34,200 Speaker 1: just think fair value is or what you think spreads 218 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 1: are going? Always the tricky questions, Um, I think that's 219 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: where the spreads should be going. If the economic recovery 220 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 1: doesn't happen, vaccine doesn't turn out to be anything in 221 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 1: it an immediate catalyst some of these industries, and that 222 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 1: fifty percent cohort that I've talked about in the high 223 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: yield industry. They are structurally and secularly challenge. They're gonna run. 224 00:11:56,400 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 1: They're either gonna go out of business or they're gonna 225 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 1: run at fifty capacity, which means you have to start 226 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,079 Speaker 1: baking in capital impairment to the bonds which are not 227 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 1: being baked in at this point in time. A lot 228 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 1: of writes to catch up. As always, always enjoy catching up. 229 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 1: J O. H. C. M Alright's right now from the 230 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 1: second District in Arkansas. This week of politics. We love 231 00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 1: speaking to the Vanderbilt economist French Hill. He joins us, 232 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 1: of course from Arkansas, from a place that is very 233 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 1: much pro h this President french show, I want to 234 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 1: talk about the Delta Bank of Arkansas. You are a 235 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 1: banker at heart. What do you do when somebody comes 236 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 1: in with loan documents like what the New York Times 237 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 1: is saying of the President. I mean, this is odd 238 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 1: financial statements, to say the least, to forget about the morality. 239 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 1: The Congressman Waltz of Florida was talking about just on 240 00:12:55,800 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 1: a sheered doing business. Have you ever done a business 241 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:05,199 Speaker 1: someone like the President of the United States? Well, Tom, 242 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:07,839 Speaker 1: good morning, thanks for having me. When you look at 243 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:12,760 Speaker 1: real estate investors. Our tax code really encourages real estate 244 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:16,200 Speaker 1: investment and treats it quite favorably. And when you make 245 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:19,680 Speaker 1: real estate loans and review financial statements of somebody who's 246 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:22,079 Speaker 1: a real estate developer, then you're gonna be looking at 247 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 1: cat's love and how cash is being used because there 248 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:30,960 Speaker 1: are very few reported profits in a lot of real 249 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 1: estate companies, particularly use partnership or do a lot of 250 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:37,360 Speaker 1: upfront costs and a lot of upfront development every year. 251 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 1: It's that development trail that causes those a lot of 252 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:46,439 Speaker 1: those tax offsets for the net profits. Will you expect 253 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:50,599 Speaker 1: to see the Vice President Mr Biden really be aggressive 254 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 1: about this tomorrow night. Does he use this as a 255 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:56,200 Speaker 1: weapon or does he move on to the topics that 256 00:13:56,280 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 1: matter nationally into your second congressional district of Arkansas. I 257 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 1: think Vice President Batt Biden will go on the attack 258 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: and contrast strongly the things he disagrees with with the 259 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 1: Trump administration. I think he'll probably stick to policy. But 260 00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: since he uh opened up yesterday in Wilmington's with the 261 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 1: healthcare topic, I think that will be a principal topic 262 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 1: because of the Supreme Court nomination, because of the efforts 263 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:24,680 Speaker 1: to change Obamacare that we've made in the Congress over 264 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 1: the last few years. But I don't put it past 265 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 1: Joe Biden from talking taxes, Congressman. While we'd wait for 266 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: November three to come around, there's a question about what 267 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 1: will happen after that date, and Mitch McConnell, UH Senate 268 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 1: leader has come out and said that there will be 269 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:45,640 Speaker 1: an orderly and peaceful transition of power. What will you 270 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 1: do if you agree with Mitch McConnell about that, if 271 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 1: President Trump does not concede or is unwilling to go 272 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 1: along with a peaceful transfer of power. We know all 273 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 1: of our elections are controlled by our states. I think 274 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 1: Americans who were actively watching the presidential election watch that 275 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 1: play out in UH two thousand with Gore v. Bush 276 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 1: and the efforts in Florida to recount ballots. So this 277 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:15,560 Speaker 1: will play out state by state. I too expect that 278 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 1: we'll have a peaceful transfer of power and the inauguration 279 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 1: of Donald Trump on the twentie of January. But look, 280 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: this is going to have some challenges potentially in the states, 281 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 1: and we'll just have to wait and see how that goes. 282 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:31,760 Speaker 1: There are lawyers on both sides to make sure every 283 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 1: American vote counts. I would just emerge Americans to vote 284 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 1: early and mail their ballot early so that there's no 285 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:42,800 Speaker 1: controversy at that their vote will be accounted if they're 286 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:46,800 Speaker 1: going to vote absentee, okay, but absent faith alone faith 287 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: in the peaceful transfer. Are you making any preparations or 288 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 1: other lawmakers, Republicans in particular, making preparations in the case 289 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 1: that there is not likely to be a peaceful transfer 290 00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 1: of power, Not that I'm aware of a because I 291 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 1: don't think anybody expects that to be the case. I 292 00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 1: think people expect the vote to come in and be 293 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 1: counted and that we'll have a new president in January. 294 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 1: French Hill, I want to talk to you about stimulus. 295 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 1: Is a wide presumption they'll be stimulus after the first 296 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 1: of the year. It's been a you know, by all accounts, 297 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 1: a disaster. Certainly, Jerome Powell suggests it's a disaster that 298 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:24,960 Speaker 1: we haven't seen a stimulus. What kind of stimulus would 299 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 1: be most efficacious for whomever wins the presidency? What's needed 300 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 1: right now? Yeah, Well, when you see the functioning of 301 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 1: the markets and the access to both large corporations and 302 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 1: public finance, enter these to be able to attack funding 303 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 1: in the markets. It's really a small business that operates 304 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 1: in the realm that's still struggling. Either it's a closed 305 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 1: down economy by state decision, or they're in a market 306 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:55,200 Speaker 1: like restaurants or hospitality that are still struggling. So for me, 307 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:58,840 Speaker 1: the most important thing is to extend the paycheck protection program. 308 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 1: We have a hundred and thirty eight billion dollars not 309 00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:05,680 Speaker 1: spending that program already appropriated that's been blocked by the 310 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 1: negotiations between Speaker Pelosi and the Treasury Secretary. We have 311 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 1: a discharge petition on the House floor this week to 312 00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 1: try to get that bill through the House and over 313 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,120 Speaker 1: to the Senate with two hundred and eight keeen votes 314 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 1: at least in the House. So I think small business 315 00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 1: is where I would focus that stimulus. UH Tom, and 316 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 1: also families. We've only clawed back about fifty of the 317 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:32,959 Speaker 1: jobs back from UH the sharp decline in April, and 318 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 1: therefore we need to have a compromise on both the 319 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 1: unemployment compensation issue and any other sport support for our families. Congressman, 320 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:44,960 Speaker 1: lucky to have you on the show this morning, looking forwards, 321 00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,639 Speaker 1: getting you back. Compressman finch Hill that joining us on 322 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 1: the latest effort down in d C on the fiscal side, 323 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 1: and on that report from the New York Times, this 324 00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 1: is buried. I think it sounded likeke pag ninety who 325 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 1: of Trump Nation, they art of being the Donald Donald Trump. 326 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 1: I think people are tired of seeing the negative. You know, 327 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 1: one of the reasons my book sell is because they're positive. 328 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 1: People don't want to read about a negative Trump. I 329 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 1: really believe that. And of course the language spoken to 330 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:22,880 Speaker 1: Timothy O'Brien, he is with Bloomberg opinion, of course, acclaimed 331 00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 1: at the New York Times for years, and we are 332 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 1: thrilled that he has been a first call to us 333 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 1: today as he's been very busy with perspective on the 334 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:35,320 Speaker 1: presidents of finances and of course perspective on the journalism 335 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:38,119 Speaker 1: of the New York Times. Tim O'Brien I spoke to 336 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 1: a Congressman green Beret from Boynton Beach today who explained 337 00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:46,199 Speaker 1: away these challenges and said everybody has a right to 338 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 1: avoid taxes. And I give the Times tim O'Brien great 339 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 1: credit because that's exactly what they said. Is tax avoidance bad? Uh. 340 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,119 Speaker 1: You know, there are there are legal perfectly to go 341 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:04,440 Speaker 1: ways to avoid taxes. Tom, I think, Um, looking at 342 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:08,360 Speaker 1: this simply through the lens of whether or not it's 343 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 1: legally allowed, I think puts the conversation in the wrong place. Um. 344 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,959 Speaker 1: The problem we have is whether or not everyone in 345 00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:19,960 Speaker 1: our society, our neighbors, and everyone else in this community 346 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 1: pays their fair share. It also matters that the president 347 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 1: United States, who engineered the most massive tax cut of 348 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 1: the post World War two era but largely benefited affluent 349 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 1: taxpayers in corporate America, turns out to have only paid 350 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:38,920 Speaker 1: seven fifty dollars in taxes a year he was elected president. So, Tim, 351 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 1: given the exhaustive reporting of the New York Times, what 352 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:45,320 Speaker 1: are some of the risks that you think are posed 353 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 1: to this presidency? Uh? From his perhaps you know, from 354 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 1: his tax history. I guess, well, you know what I say, 355 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 1: I think, Paul, you know they put they put a 356 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:56,639 Speaker 1: lot of clothing on themes we've already known in the 357 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 1: past about Trump, that that he's he's he's a haphazard businessman. 358 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:04,240 Speaker 1: Uh and and a serial bankruptcy artist. Um that's made 359 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 1: real in their numbers. But I think this has been 360 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 1: known about him for a long time. What I think 361 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 1: wasn't known currently was the extent to which this vice 362 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,800 Speaker 1: of debt is possibly closing around him right now, given 363 00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:18,919 Speaker 1: that he's in businesses like real estate and travel that 364 00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 1: are getting crunched by the pandemic and under durest. As 365 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,400 Speaker 1: a president who has to face a choice with neither 366 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 1: selling assets or getting alone, possibly compromises foreign policy or 367 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 1: domestic policy in order to keep his business as afloat. 368 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:37,679 Speaker 1: And that's always been the question around Trump. Uh. The 369 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 1: Times estimates Trump has north of four million dollars in debt. 370 00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 1: I think it's actually easily north of a billion. And uh, 371 00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 1: and he's going to be hard pressed financially in coming years. Tim, 372 00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 1: in your litigation with Donald Trump, you got some access 373 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:58,120 Speaker 1: to his financial records. Is there anything in the Times 374 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:04,119 Speaker 1: reporting that surprises you? Uh? You know, honestly, nothing in 375 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,800 Speaker 1: the Time support report surprises me. But that's not to 376 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:09,719 Speaker 1: take away from what a tour to force it is. 377 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 1: Because they put it all in one place. They got 378 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,080 Speaker 1: years and years that no one else including me, has 379 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,600 Speaker 1: ever gotten, and it's been and they've made it into 380 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,919 Speaker 1: a public document. I wasn't able to do that. I 381 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 1: think the thing that surprises me. I guess the most 382 00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:28,840 Speaker 1: in there is um this flagrant disconnect between what his 383 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 1: taxes absolutely show and how he misleads and lies about 384 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,879 Speaker 1: them in public routinely and has been since. Tim O'Brien 385 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,680 Speaker 1: is one paragraph, and folks, I can't say enough about 386 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:43,920 Speaker 1: how the time's been over backward to provide perspective and context. 387 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 1: They look at all the other rich people the point 388 00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:51,360 Speaker 1: oh o one per cent the thousands of Americans, one 389 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 1: one of Americans. I think that math is and and 390 00:21:56,560 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 1: Tim O'Brien, the average rate of those fancy people is 391 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 1: a twenty four percent tax. Do you perceive that he's 392 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:09,080 Speaker 1: literally an outlier in his tax avoidance or could you 393 00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 1: say right now there's ten twenty other people like him 394 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 1: out there? Well, he's an outlier. I don't know many 395 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:16,879 Speaker 1: how many other people are like him out there. But 396 00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 1: over a twenty year period, Donald Trump paid four hundred 397 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:23,679 Speaker 1: million dollars less in taxes than his peers in the 398 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,680 Speaker 1: same tax bracket. So he's clearly not paying what even 399 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:31,480 Speaker 1: his affluent UH competitors and friends are paying. So to 400 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,960 Speaker 1: your point earlier to Paul Sweeney's a good question. Very quickly, 401 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 1: Tim O'Brien you talk about the way he's presented his finances. 402 00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 1: Is he in trouble with fraud with all your research? 403 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:48,119 Speaker 1: Is he trouble with the idea of not being all 404 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 1: correct with banking relationships and such. He's under investigation right 405 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 1: now by the Manhattan US Manhattan District Attorney for possible 406 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:01,399 Speaker 1: tax and accounting fraud and campaign finance rod. So, of course, 407 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 1: is an issue about whether or not he's been above 408 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:07,680 Speaker 1: board all these years. Seventy thou dollars. The style is here. 409 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 1: You and I don't have that problem, Tom, No, No, 410 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 1: we don't. Tim O'Brien, thank you. I just want to 411 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,120 Speaker 1: say Mr O'Brien folks started his day with us way 412 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 1: way back at five or six o'clock, and we really 413 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,280 Speaker 1: appreciate his effort today and his expertise. I really can't 414 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 1: say enough about Trump Nation. You know, you say it's dated, Well, 415 00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:32,400 Speaker 1: you know what, It's a snapshot into a pre presidency Trump. 416 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,920 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and 417 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast 418 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before 419 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:50,480 Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg 420 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 1: Radio