Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly
Speaker 2: source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and
Speaker 2: whatever stupid stuff they decide to drop into the show. Now,
Speaker 2: here's your host, Paul Jarchian.
Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. A rare solo
Speaker 1: show for me. Oh, it's gonna be a lot of charge.
Speaker 1: Hope you can make it through that. I'll do my
Speaker 1: best to make it worth your while. I guess I'm
Speaker 1: not entirely alone. I do have a couple of people
Speaker 1: that are gonna chime in like this.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I should do the opposite.
Speaker 2: Should If every instinct you have is wrong, then the
Speaker 2: opposite would have to be right.
Speaker 3: Yes, I will do the opposite. Yes, I will do
Speaker 3: the opposite.
Speaker 1: Hopefully by now, longtime listeners, you know how I feel
Speaker 1: about do the opposite. This goes back twenty years when
Speaker 1: Seinfeld was relevant on television. I imagine some of you
Speaker 1: didn't even recognize that as being a Seinfeld clip. That
Speaker 1: I've been advocating a draft strategy and acquisition strategy for
Speaker 1: auctions drafts. However, you play that basically says, don't draft
Speaker 1: runners for at least four rounds and then draft a
Speaker 1: slew of runners through the middle rounds of your draft.
Speaker 1: And overall the success rate on this has been very good.
Speaker 1: And it's taken until really last year, last draft cycle,
Speaker 1: where I think people are really starting to figure.
Speaker 3: It out a little bit. And one of the things
Speaker 3: we talked about in.
Speaker 1: This show Fantasy Football Weekly, coming out of August's drafts was, Man,
Speaker 1: people weren't drafted a lot of running backs. In fact,
Speaker 1: to the first two rounds last year, only nine running
Speaker 1: backs taken. This was a really sizeable departure, and I
Speaker 1: think it's just taken a lot of time for people
Speaker 1: to get burned and burned and burned on highly drafted
Speaker 1: running backs and seeing the people winning their leagues winning
Speaker 1: it with other positions drafted early quarterbacks, wide receivers.
Speaker 3: Tight ends.
Speaker 1: So I thought, let's spend one episode of Fantasy Football
Speaker 1: Weekly recapping this year, this past season, twenty twenty three season.
Speaker 1: Let's begin here the nine running backs that were drafted
Speaker 1: in the first two rounds. How did they fare? So
Speaker 1: if you America started drafting fewer running backs, you'd think
Speaker 1: the hit rate would go up because we're not being
Speaker 1: so reckless with our picks at running back through those
Speaker 1: first two rounds. Well, let's take a look and see
Speaker 1: how those nine running backs that were taken in the
Speaker 1: first two rounds ended up faring. We begin here Christian McCaffrey.
Speaker 1: He was the first running back taken and he finished
Speaker 1: as running back one. McCaffrey worked out great, and he's
Speaker 1: really gonna be the out here as you're going to see. Then.
Speaker 1: Austin Eckler was running back too. He finished his running
Speaker 1: back twenty nine. B Jhon Robinson was running back three
Speaker 1: last year. He finished his running back fourteen, So not
Speaker 1: a total disaster, but not what you expected when you
Speaker 1: took him at running back three.
Speaker 3: And roughly the middle of the first round.
Speaker 1: Nick Chubb went next, running back four. Obviously, you know
Speaker 1: his season ended very early. He finished his running back
Speaker 1: eighty six. Sakwon Barkley was running back five last year,
Speaker 1: finished running back eighteen. Tony Pollard was running back six.
Speaker 1: What an epic disappointment he was, even though he got
Speaker 1: a little bit better at the end of the year.
Speaker 1: Finished his running back twenty two. Derrick Henry was drafted
Speaker 1: as running back seven, finished his running back seven. All right,
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, we'll talk more about him in
Speaker 1: a little bit here. Josh Jacobs finished as he was
Speaker 1: your running back. Eight, he finished his running back twenty five.
Speaker 1: And the funny thing is he didn't get hurt, and
Speaker 1: the usage was high, it didn't matter. Najee Harris was
Speaker 1: running back.
Speaker 3: Nine.
Speaker 1: He finished his running back twenty four. So in totality,
Speaker 1: there wasn't a single runner who's finish exceeded his draft position.
Speaker 1: Two of those nine running backs taken in the top
Speaker 1: two rounds met his draft position. That was Christian McCaffrey
Speaker 1: and Derrick Henry.
Speaker 3: Nobody else did.
Speaker 1: The other seven averaged running back thirty one. So unless
Speaker 1: you hit on Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry, you got
Speaker 1: punished for taking running backs in the first two rounds.
Speaker 1: So in average, in totality, those nine running backs, even
Speaker 1: with Christian McCaffrey Dereck Henry, who did what they should
Speaker 1: have done, the first nine running backs averaged out to
Speaker 1: be running back twenty five with a median of running
Speaker 1: back twenty two. And what's really interesting about this past
Speaker 1: draft class was, unlike most hears, eight of the top
Speaker 1: nine guys missed very little playing time. You know, in
Speaker 1: a typical year, one of the things that really hurts
Speaker 1: these highly drafted running backs is massive injury to several
Speaker 1: of them. We didn't get that normally, Like one out
Speaker 1: of one third of the top running backs taken end
Speaker 1: up suffering major injury. We didn't have that here, just
Speaker 1: the Nick Chubb injury. For everybody else, it was just
Speaker 1: typical running back variants. So where did the top.
Speaker 3: Ten running backs come from?
Speaker 1: Well, let's let's look. So here's gonna be the top
Speaker 1: ten guys by This is assuming full point per reception leagues,
Speaker 1: which I think most of you are playing in. Now,
Speaker 1: where did the top ten running backs come from? Well,
Speaker 1: let's look. The highest scoring running back was Christian McCaffrey.
Speaker 3: He came out of round one.
Speaker 1: The second highest scoring running back, Raheem mostered round ten.
Speaker 1: The third highest scoring running back, Kyron Williams.
Speaker 3: Well, you know this is gonna be deep.
Speaker 1: Round twenty one RB four. Travis Etn came from round
Speaker 1: three RB five Rashad White. Round six, RB six was
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon from round four RB seven. As I mentioned earlier,
Speaker 1: Dereck Henry came out of round two. RB eight was
Speaker 1: Bryce Hall, who came from round four. RB nine James
Speaker 1: Cook came from round six, and RB ten Jimior Gibbs,
Speaker 1: came from round four.
Speaker 3: Again, eight of the ten came.
Speaker 1: From lower than their average draft position. On average, the
Speaker 1: top ten running back came from round six, an immedian
Speaker 1: spot of round four. So what this says is really
Speaker 1: one of the key principles of do the opposite, which
Speaker 1: has always been turn your attention to running backs and
Speaker 1: roughly rounds four, five to six and just take a
Speaker 1: bunch of them out of the middle of your whether
Speaker 1: you start drafting running backs in round four or round
Speaker 1: five or round six, then you just take like.
Speaker 3: Four in a row and.
Speaker 1: Enjoy the probable success that you got from non running
Speaker 1: backs in the first three rounds or longer.
Speaker 3: So let's look at non running backs. So let's dive
Speaker 3: in for a second.
Speaker 1: And as I'm reading this list, im gonna I'm gonna
Speaker 1: give you non running backs taken in the first two rounds.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna read you the list of guys, and I'm
Speaker 1: gonna tell you in order where they were taken through
Speaker 1: the first two rounds non running backs, where they finished
Speaker 1: and as I'm reading this list of players, ask yourself,
Speaker 1: do you wish you had drafted those guys? Would they
Speaker 1: have been would they have been good producing players on
Speaker 1: your team. I'm gonna give you what is fourteen guys here.
Speaker 1: Of these fourteen, you're gonna wish you had had most
Speaker 1: of them. So the first non running back taken was
Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson obviously missed the whole middle part of the season,
Speaker 1: finished his as wide receiver thirty seven. Jamar Chase was
Speaker 1: taken next. Widers finished his wide receiver eleven. Travis Kelcey
Speaker 1: was next, finished his tight end three. Tyreek Hill finished
Speaker 1: his wide receiver two. Then Stefan Diggs was taken wide
Speaker 1: receiver thirteen. Ceedee Lamb taken next. He finished his wide
Speaker 1: receiver one. Patrick Mahomes was next, finished his quarterback seven.
Speaker 1: So that was a bit of a dip. Aj Brown
Speaker 1: finished his wide receiver five. DeVante Adams finished his wide
Speaker 1: receiver sixteen. Cooper Cup came into the season hurt and
Speaker 1: so you know a lot of people were wary on him.
Speaker 1: He still went off the board late second round, finished
Speaker 1: his wide receiver forty. I'm on Rossaint Brown was the
Speaker 1: next player taken wide receiver four was his finish. Josh
Speaker 1: Allen was the next player taken among non running backs,
Speaker 1: finished his coquarter back one. Garrett Wilson was taken next,
Speaker 1: finished his wide receiver thirty five. Obviously the whole quarterback
Speaker 1: problem to Jets say Tim Boyle starting games for Pete's sake,
Speaker 1: and Garrett Wilson still had some pretty good games, he
Speaker 1: just had some stone cold duds where they could not pass.
Speaker 1: Then Jalen Hurts was taken next, finished his quarterback two,
Speaker 1: and then Jalen Waddle. Last non running back taken on
Speaker 1: average in the first two rounds of your drafts last year,
Speaker 1: finished his wide receiver twenty eight, worse than I think
Speaker 1: a lot of people expected, but in totality, out of
Speaker 1: this whole group through the first two rounds, non running
Speaker 1: backs finished at position thirteen and a median of position seven,
Speaker 1: that's not bad. Remember, the running backs finished as an
Speaker 1: average of twenty fifth and twenty second at their positions,
Speaker 1: so it's still way higher than normal. And by and large,
Speaker 1: these guys helped your team. Jamar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Ceedee
Speaker 1: lamb aj Brown, I'm on Ross Saint Brown, Josh Allen,
Speaker 1: Jalen Waddle, Hurts.
Speaker 3: These guys helped your.
Speaker 1: Teams obviously, way way safer and fund to review the
Speaker 1: data and go back and look now that we know
Speaker 1: what the results are, So if we were to break
Speaker 1: it out specifically by position. In the first couple of rounds,
Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey was the only tight end taken. He was
Speaker 1: tight end one, but he finished his tight end three
Speaker 1: and what was a good not amazing year for Travis Kelcey.
Speaker 1: Among the quarterbacks, three were taken in the first two rounds.
Speaker 1: Travis Kelcey, sorry sorry, two taken Josh Allen, and I'm
Speaker 1: sorry three Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts. Josh Allen
Speaker 1: finished his quarterback one. Jalen Hurts finished his quarterback two.
Speaker 1: Mahomes was the one guy who was a semi missed
Speaker 1: but not a bad miss at quarterback seven. Mahomes wasn't
Speaker 1: hurting you, he just wasn't helping as much as we'd liked.
Speaker 1: And then the wide receivers by and large finished well. Jefferson, Chase, Tyreek, Hill, Diggs,
Speaker 1: Ceedee lamb aj Brown, DeVante Adams, Cooper Cup we already
Speaker 1: mentioned was a miss i'm on Rossaint Brown, Garrett Wilson
Speaker 1: slight miss, and Jalen Waddle slight miss. But overwhelmingly, these
Speaker 1: guys performed about how you would have expected, or potentially
Speaker 1: even better. Unlike any of the running backs, some of
Speaker 1: these guys finished better than their draft position. Tyreek Hill
Speaker 1: finished better than his draft position. Ceedee Lamb finished better
Speaker 1: than his draft position. Aj Brown finished better than his
Speaker 1: draft position. I'm on Ross Saint Brown better than draft position.
Speaker 1: So you these players, non running backs, gave you the
Speaker 1: chance to improve your team based on where they were drafted.
Speaker 3: Do the opposite.
Speaker 1: You know, you can apply, try to apply some logic
Speaker 1: to guessing which one of the top running backs will fail,
Speaker 1: and then you could work around those guys. And I've
Speaker 1: seen people do this, like, Okay, look, I'm.
Speaker 3: Still drafting running backs. I don't care.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be stubborn about it, but I'm gonna be
Speaker 1: smarter than consensus. I'm still gonna draft running backs, but
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna draft the bust running backs. So you
Speaker 1: could try to target injury prone runners that you think
Speaker 1: will end up getting hurt again, and so then you
Speaker 1: avoid those guys. But the problem is, like Christian McCaffrey
Speaker 1: was injury prone two straight season and then he wasn't
Speaker 1: and Nick Chubb wasn't injury prone until he was really
Speaker 1: hard to predict injury. You could target older runners who
Speaker 1: might be ready to fall off, like a great example
Speaker 1: from last year would be Dalvin Cook, who the Vikings
Speaker 1: ultimately chose to give up on and then you know,
Speaker 1: ended upon two different teams and never did anything. You
Speaker 1: could try to do that, but even and I think
Speaker 1: usually that's not a half bad strategy if you are
Speaker 1: going to go running, But even then you can't know.
Speaker 3: Look at Joe Mixon and.
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry Guides you would have avoided if you were
Speaker 1: just targeting older runners who might be ready to fall off.
Speaker 1: Those guys buck the trend and they stayed healthy and
Speaker 1: they actually produced.
Speaker 3: Okay, you know, usually.
Speaker 1: We don't know which running backs are going to fail.
Speaker 1: We don't know why running backs are going to fail,
Speaker 1: but we know they do overwhelmingly year after year at
Speaker 1: a way higher rate than the other positions. So rather
Speaker 1: than trying to guess which running backs are not going
Speaker 1: to get hurt, which running backs aren't going to be
Speaker 1: at the end of their life cycle, which running backs
Speaker 1: aren't going to struggle just because their quarterback struggles. You
Speaker 1: know Freese haul as an example, or the whole offense
Speaker 1: goes down and the running back goes with it. There's
Speaker 1: so many reasons running backs can be so much more volatile.
Speaker 1: So we don't play the odds. You just don't draft
Speaker 1: any running backs in the first three rounds and possibly
Speaker 1: the first four or five rounds. And I know what
Speaker 1: you're thinking, No, I can't do that. I'll bet hamstrung
Speaker 1: at running back all season long. But really you won't.
Speaker 1: Active fantasy owners will work around it. You will find help.
Speaker 1: You will when run running back goes down, you'll go
Speaker 1: to the backup. You'll plug and play guys. You'll have
Speaker 1: drafted all these running backs in the middle rounds, or
Speaker 1: you'll have auctioned for eight percent or ten percent or
Speaker 1: twelve percent of your cap instead of forty percent of
Speaker 1: your cap on a guy or thirty percent of your guy.
Speaker 1: You're gonna have a bunch of eight, ten and twelve
Speaker 1: percent cap guys from your auction that are gonna help you.
Speaker 3: You're not gonna be hamstrung.
Speaker 1: You're gonna be okay at the running back position. So
Speaker 1: there you go a recap of do the opposite from
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three A lot. You know, I've been looking
Speaker 1: at this for twenty years. Eight or nine out of
Speaker 1: every ten years, these highly drafted runners just proved to
Speaker 1: be very volatile, injury prone.
Speaker 3: Not every year.
Speaker 1: There have been a couple of years that we've we've
Speaker 1: done the analytics on it and it will have gone
Speaker 1: back and it turned out, Yeah, taking running backs was
Speaker 1: probably the right thing to do. Wide receivers got hurt
Speaker 1: or quarterbacks got hurt, which you know they do. That
Speaker 1: happens to Justin Jefferson got hurt. But overwhelmingly, the safe
Speaker 1: play with your most valuable picks, the majority of your
Speaker 1: auction cap, is to put those that those valuable dollars
Speaker 1: in those valuable draft picks on non running backs, just
Speaker 1: like it was last year. Thanks for listening, everybody, talk
Speaker 1: to you next week. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production
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