WEBVTT - Did The Opposite Work?

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of iHeartRadio.

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<v Speaker 2>Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from iHeartRadio, your weekly

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<v Speaker 2>source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, and

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<v Speaker 2>whatever stupid stuff they decide to drop into the show. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>here's your host, Paul Jarchian.

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, everybody, welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. A rare solo

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<v Speaker 1>show for me. Oh, it's gonna be a lot of charge.

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<v Speaker 1>Hope you can make it through that. I'll do my

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<v Speaker 1>best to make it worth your while. I guess I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not entirely alone. I do have a couple of people

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<v Speaker 1>that are gonna chime in like this.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I should do the opposite.

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<v Speaker 2>Should If every instinct you have is wrong, then the

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<v Speaker 2>opposite would have to be right.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, I will do the opposite. Yes, I will do

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<v Speaker 3>the opposite.

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<v Speaker 1>Hopefully by now, longtime listeners, you know how I feel

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<v Speaker 1>about do the opposite. This goes back twenty years when

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<v Speaker 1>Seinfeld was relevant on television. I imagine some of you

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<v Speaker 1>didn't even recognize that as being a Seinfeld clip. That

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<v Speaker 1>I've been advocating a draft strategy and acquisition strategy for

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<v Speaker 1>auctions drafts. However, you play that basically says, don't draft

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<v Speaker 1>runners for at least four rounds and then draft a

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<v Speaker 1>slew of runners through the middle rounds of your draft.

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<v Speaker 1>And overall the success rate on this has been very good.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's taken until really last year, last draft cycle,

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<v Speaker 1>where I think people are really starting to figure.

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<v Speaker 3>It out a little bit. And one of the things

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<v Speaker 3>we talked about in.

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<v Speaker 1>This show Fantasy Football Weekly, coming out of August's drafts was, Man,

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<v Speaker 1>people weren't drafted a lot of running backs. In fact,

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<v Speaker 1>to the first two rounds last year, only nine running

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<v Speaker 1>backs taken. This was a really sizeable departure, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's just taken a lot of time for people

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<v Speaker 1>to get burned and burned and burned on highly drafted

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<v Speaker 1>running backs and seeing the people winning their leagues winning

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<v Speaker 1>it with other positions drafted early quarterbacks, wide receivers.

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<v Speaker 3>Tight ends.

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<v Speaker 1>So I thought, let's spend one episode of Fantasy Football

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<v Speaker 1>Weekly recapping this year, this past season, twenty twenty three season.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's begin here the nine running backs that were drafted

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<v Speaker 1>in the first two rounds. How did they fare? So

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<v Speaker 1>if you America started drafting fewer running backs, you'd think

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<v Speaker 1>the hit rate would go up because we're not being

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<v Speaker 1>so reckless with our picks at running back through those

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<v Speaker 1>first two rounds. Well, let's take a look and see

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<v Speaker 1>how those nine running backs that were taken in the

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<v Speaker 1>first two rounds ended up faring. We begin here Christian McCaffrey.

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<v Speaker 1>He was the first running back taken and he finished

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<v Speaker 1>as running back one. McCaffrey worked out great, and he's

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<v Speaker 1>really gonna be the out here as you're going to see. Then.

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<v Speaker 1>Austin Eckler was running back too. He finished his running

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<v Speaker 1>back twenty nine. B Jhon Robinson was running back three

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<v Speaker 1>last year. He finished his running back fourteen, So not

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<v Speaker 1>a total disaster, but not what you expected when you

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<v Speaker 1>took him at running back three.

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<v Speaker 3>And roughly the middle of the first round.

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<v Speaker 1>Nick Chubb went next, running back four. Obviously, you know

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<v Speaker 1>his season ended very early. He finished his running back

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<v Speaker 1>eighty six. Sakwon Barkley was running back five last year,

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<v Speaker 1>finished running back eighteen. Tony Pollard was running back six.

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<v Speaker 1>What an epic disappointment he was, even though he got

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit better at the end of the year.

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<v Speaker 1>Finished his running back twenty two. Derrick Henry was drafted

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<v Speaker 1>as running back seven, finished his running back seven. All right,

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<v Speaker 1>Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, we'll talk more about him in

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit here. Josh Jacobs finished as he was

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<v Speaker 1>your running back. Eight, he finished his running back twenty five.

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<v Speaker 1>And the funny thing is he didn't get hurt, and

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<v Speaker 1>the usage was high, it didn't matter. Najee Harris was

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<v Speaker 1>running back.

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<v Speaker 3>Nine.

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<v Speaker 1>He finished his running back twenty four. So in totality,

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<v Speaker 1>there wasn't a single runner who's finish exceeded his draft position.

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<v Speaker 1>Two of those nine running backs taken in the top

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<v Speaker 1>two rounds met his draft position. That was Christian McCaffrey

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<v Speaker 1>and Derrick Henry.

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<v Speaker 3>Nobody else did.

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<v Speaker 1>The other seven averaged running back thirty one. So unless

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<v Speaker 1>you hit on Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry, you got

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<v Speaker 1>punished for taking running backs in the first two rounds.

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<v Speaker 1>So in average, in totality, those nine running backs, even

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<v Speaker 1>with Christian McCaffrey Dereck Henry, who did what they should

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<v Speaker 1>have done, the first nine running backs averaged out to

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<v Speaker 1>be running back twenty five with a median of running

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<v Speaker 1>back twenty two. And what's really interesting about this past

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<v Speaker 1>draft class was, unlike most hears, eight of the top

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<v Speaker 1>nine guys missed very little playing time. You know, in

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<v Speaker 1>a typical year, one of the things that really hurts

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<v Speaker 1>these highly drafted running backs is massive injury to several

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<v Speaker 1>of them. We didn't get that normally, Like one out

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<v Speaker 1>of one third of the top running backs taken end

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<v Speaker 1>up suffering major injury. We didn't have that here, just

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<v Speaker 1>the Nick Chubb injury. For everybody else, it was just

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<v Speaker 1>typical running back variants. So where did the top.

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<v Speaker 3>Ten running backs come from?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, let's let's look. So here's gonna be the top

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<v Speaker 1>ten guys by This is assuming full point per reception leagues,

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<v Speaker 1>which I think most of you are playing in. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>where did the top ten running backs come from? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>let's look. The highest scoring running back was Christian McCaffrey.

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<v Speaker 3>He came out of round one.

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<v Speaker 1>The second highest scoring running back, Raheem mostered round ten.

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<v Speaker 1>The third highest scoring running back, Kyron Williams.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, you know this is gonna be deep.

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<v Speaker 1>Round twenty one RB four. Travis Etn came from round

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<v Speaker 1>three RB five Rashad White. Round six, RB six was

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Mixon from round four RB seven. As I mentioned earlier,

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<v Speaker 1>Dereck Henry came out of round two. RB eight was

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<v Speaker 1>Bryce Hall, who came from round four. RB nine James

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<v Speaker 1>Cook came from round six, and RB ten Jimior Gibbs,

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<v Speaker 1>came from round four.

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<v Speaker 3>Again, eight of the ten came.

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<v Speaker 1>From lower than their average draft position. On average, the

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<v Speaker 1>top ten running back came from round six, an immedian

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<v Speaker 1>spot of round four. So what this says is really

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<v Speaker 1>one of the key principles of do the opposite, which

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<v Speaker 1>has always been turn your attention to running backs and

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<v Speaker 1>roughly rounds four, five to six and just take a

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<v Speaker 1>bunch of them out of the middle of your whether

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<v Speaker 1>you start drafting running backs in round four or round

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<v Speaker 1>five or round six, then you just take like.

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<v Speaker 3>Four in a row and.

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<v Speaker 1>Enjoy the probable success that you got from non running

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<v Speaker 1>backs in the first three rounds or longer.

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<v Speaker 3>So let's look at non running backs. So let's dive

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<v Speaker 3>in for a second.

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<v Speaker 1>And as I'm reading this list, im gonna I'm gonna

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<v Speaker 1>give you non running backs taken in the first two rounds.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna read you the list of guys, and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>gonna tell you in order where they were taken through

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<v Speaker 1>the first two rounds non running backs, where they finished

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<v Speaker 1>and as I'm reading this list of players, ask yourself,

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<v Speaker 1>do you wish you had drafted those guys? Would they

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<v Speaker 1>have been would they have been good producing players on

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<v Speaker 1>your team. I'm gonna give you what is fourteen guys here.

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<v Speaker 1>Of these fourteen, you're gonna wish you had had most

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<v Speaker 1>of them. So the first non running back taken was

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<v Speaker 1>Justin Jefferson obviously missed the whole middle part of the season,

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<v Speaker 1>finished his as wide receiver thirty seven. Jamar Chase was

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<v Speaker 1>taken next. Widers finished his wide receiver eleven. Travis Kelcey

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<v Speaker 1>was next, finished his tight end three. Tyreek Hill finished

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<v Speaker 1>his wide receiver two. Then Stefan Diggs was taken wide

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<v Speaker 1>receiver thirteen. Ceedee Lamb taken next. He finished his wide

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<v Speaker 1>receiver one. Patrick Mahomes was next, finished his quarterback seven.

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<v Speaker 1>So that was a bit of a dip. Aj Brown

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<v Speaker 1>finished his wide receiver five. DeVante Adams finished his wide

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<v Speaker 1>receiver sixteen. Cooper Cup came into the season hurt and

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<v Speaker 1>so you know a lot of people were wary on him.

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<v Speaker 1>He still went off the board late second round, finished

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<v Speaker 1>his wide receiver forty. I'm on Rossaint Brown was the

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<v Speaker 1>next player taken wide receiver four was his finish. Josh

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<v Speaker 1>Allen was the next player taken among non running backs,

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<v Speaker 1>finished his coquarter back one. Garrett Wilson was taken next,

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<v Speaker 1>finished his wide receiver thirty five. Obviously the whole quarterback

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<v Speaker 1>problem to Jets say Tim Boyle starting games for Pete's sake,

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<v Speaker 1>and Garrett Wilson still had some pretty good games, he

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<v Speaker 1>just had some stone cold duds where they could not pass.

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<v Speaker 1>Then Jalen Hurts was taken next, finished his quarterback two,

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<v Speaker 1>and then Jalen Waddle. Last non running back taken on

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<v Speaker 1>average in the first two rounds of your drafts last year,

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<v Speaker 1>finished his wide receiver twenty eight, worse than I think

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of people expected, but in totality, out of

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<v Speaker 1>this whole group through the first two rounds, non running

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<v Speaker 1>backs finished at position thirteen and a median of position seven,

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<v Speaker 1>that's not bad. Remember, the running backs finished as an

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<v Speaker 1>average of twenty fifth and twenty second at their positions,

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<v Speaker 1>so it's still way higher than normal. And by and large,

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<v Speaker 1>these guys helped your team. Jamar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Ceedee

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<v Speaker 1>lamb aj Brown, I'm on Ross Saint Brown, Josh Allen,

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<v Speaker 1>Jalen Waddle, Hurts.

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<v Speaker 3>These guys helped your.

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<v Speaker 1>Teams obviously, way way safer and fund to review the

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<v Speaker 1>data and go back and look now that we know

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<v Speaker 1>what the results are, So if we were to break

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<v Speaker 1>it out specifically by position. In the first couple of rounds,

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<v Speaker 1>Travis Kelcey was the only tight end taken. He was

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<v Speaker 1>tight end one, but he finished his tight end three

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<v Speaker 1>and what was a good not amazing year for Travis Kelcey.

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<v Speaker 1>Among the quarterbacks, three were taken in the first two rounds.

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<v Speaker 1>Travis Kelcey, sorry sorry, two taken Josh Allen, and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>sorry three Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts. Josh Allen

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<v Speaker 1>finished his quarterback one. Jalen Hurts finished his quarterback two.

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<v Speaker 1>Mahomes was the one guy who was a semi missed

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<v Speaker 1>but not a bad miss at quarterback seven. Mahomes wasn't

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<v Speaker 1>hurting you, he just wasn't helping as much as we'd liked.

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<v Speaker 1>And then the wide receivers by and large finished well. Jefferson, Chase, Tyreek, Hill, Diggs,

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<v Speaker 1>Ceedee lamb aj Brown, DeVante Adams, Cooper Cup we already

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<v Speaker 1>mentioned was a miss i'm on Rossaint Brown, Garrett Wilson

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<v Speaker 1>slight miss, and Jalen Waddle slight miss. But overwhelmingly, these

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<v Speaker 1>guys performed about how you would have expected, or potentially

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<v Speaker 1>even better. Unlike any of the running backs, some of

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<v Speaker 1>these guys finished better than their draft position. Tyreek Hill

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<v Speaker 1>finished better than his draft position. Ceedee Lamb finished better

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<v Speaker 1>than his draft position. Aj Brown finished better than his

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<v Speaker 1>draft position. I'm on Ross Saint Brown better than draft position.

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<v Speaker 1>So you these players, non running backs, gave you the

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<v Speaker 1>chance to improve your team based on where they were drafted.

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<v Speaker 3>Do the opposite.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, you can apply, try to apply some logic

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<v Speaker 1>to guessing which one of the top running backs will fail,

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<v Speaker 1>and then you could work around those guys. And I've

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<v Speaker 1>seen people do this, like, Okay, look, I'm.

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<v Speaker 3>Still drafting running backs. I don't care.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna be stubborn about it, but I'm gonna be

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<v Speaker 1>smarter than consensus. I'm still gonna draft running backs, but

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not gonna draft the bust running backs. So you

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<v Speaker 1>could try to target injury prone runners that you think

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<v Speaker 1>will end up getting hurt again, and so then you

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<v Speaker 1>avoid those guys. But the problem is, like Christian McCaffrey

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<v Speaker 1>was injury prone two straight season and then he wasn't

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<v Speaker 1>and Nick Chubb wasn't injury prone until he was really

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<v Speaker 1>hard to predict injury. You could target older runners who

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<v Speaker 1>might be ready to fall off, like a great example

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<v Speaker 1>from last year would be Dalvin Cook, who the Vikings

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<v Speaker 1>ultimately chose to give up on and then you know,

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<v Speaker 1>ended upon two different teams and never did anything. You

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<v Speaker 1>could try to do that, but even and I think

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<v Speaker 1>usually that's not a half bad strategy if you are

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<v Speaker 1>going to go running, But even then you can't know.

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<v Speaker 3>Look at Joe Mixon and.

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<v Speaker 1>Derrick Henry Guides you would have avoided if you were

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<v Speaker 1>just targeting older runners who might be ready to fall off.

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<v Speaker 1>Those guys buck the trend and they stayed healthy and

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<v Speaker 1>they actually produced.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, you know, usually.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't know which running backs are going to fail.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't know why running backs are going to fail,

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<v Speaker 1>but we know they do overwhelmingly year after year at

0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:36.920
<v Speaker 1>a way higher rate than the other positions. So rather

0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:40.480
<v Speaker 1>than trying to guess which running backs are not going

0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:42.360
<v Speaker 1>to get hurt, which running backs aren't going to be

0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:45.040
<v Speaker 1>at the end of their life cycle, which running backs

0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:47.839
<v Speaker 1>aren't going to struggle just because their quarterback struggles. You

0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:51.280
<v Speaker 1>know Freese haul as an example, or the whole offense

0:13:51.360 --> 0:13:53.960
<v Speaker 1>goes down and the running back goes with it. There's

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<v Speaker 1>so many reasons running backs can be so much more volatile.

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<v Speaker 1>So we don't play the odds. You just don't draft

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<v Speaker 1>any running backs in the first three rounds and possibly

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<v Speaker 1>the first four or five rounds. And I know what

0:14:06.559 --> 0:14:09.480
<v Speaker 1>you're thinking, No, I can't do that. I'll bet hamstrung

0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:12.199
<v Speaker 1>at running back all season long. But really you won't.

0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:18.520
<v Speaker 1>Active fantasy owners will work around it. You will find help.

0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:21.520
<v Speaker 1>You will when run running back goes down, you'll go

0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:23.680
<v Speaker 1>to the backup. You'll plug and play guys. You'll have

0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:26.120
<v Speaker 1>drafted all these running backs in the middle rounds, or

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<v Speaker 1>you'll have auctioned for eight percent or ten percent or

0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:31.880
<v Speaker 1>twelve percent of your cap instead of forty percent of

0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:34.440
<v Speaker 1>your cap on a guy or thirty percent of your guy.

0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:37.120
<v Speaker 1>You're gonna have a bunch of eight, ten and twelve

0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:41.200
<v Speaker 1>percent cap guys from your auction that are gonna help you.

0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:42.400
<v Speaker 3>You're not gonna be hamstrung.

0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:46.720
<v Speaker 1>You're gonna be okay at the running back position. So

0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:50.280
<v Speaker 1>there you go a recap of do the opposite from

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty three A lot. You know, I've been looking

0:14:54.160 --> 0:14:59.880
<v Speaker 1>at this for twenty years. Eight or nine out of

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<v Speaker 1>every ten years, these highly drafted runners just proved to

0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:06.400
<v Speaker 1>be very volatile, injury prone.

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<v Speaker 3>Not every year.

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<v Speaker 1>There have been a couple of years that we've we've

0:15:09.000 --> 0:15:11.760
<v Speaker 1>done the analytics on it and it will have gone

0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:13.680
<v Speaker 1>back and it turned out, Yeah, taking running backs was

0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:16.080
<v Speaker 1>probably the right thing to do. Wide receivers got hurt

0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:18.240
<v Speaker 1>or quarterbacks got hurt, which you know they do. That

0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:23.520
<v Speaker 1>happens to Justin Jefferson got hurt. But overwhelmingly, the safe

0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:27.560
<v Speaker 1>play with your most valuable picks, the majority of your

0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:32.400
<v Speaker 1>auction cap, is to put those that those valuable dollars

0:15:32.400 --> 0:15:36.440
<v Speaker 1>in those valuable draft picks on non running backs, just

0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:39.800
<v Speaker 1>like it was last year. Thanks for listening, everybody, talk

0:15:39.800 --> 0:15:42.400
<v Speaker 1>to you next week. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production

0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:46.840
<v Speaker 1>of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app,

0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:50.840
<v Speaker 1>Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.