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Speaker 1: Well, joining me now somebody I've known for a couple

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Speaker 1: of decades, Rich Taw. He is a message guru, if

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Speaker 1: you will, a market research tester, makes his living helping

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Speaker 1: advocacy groups and trade associations test various messages to try

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Speaker 1: to appeal to certain constituencies where I consume a lot

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Speaker 1: of his work is for something called the Swing Voter Project.

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Speaker 1: It's something he does in conjunction with Axios. If you

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Speaker 1: are a subscriber to those Axios newsletters and you've and

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Speaker 1: you've seen analysis of the Biden Trump voter, or the

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Speaker 1: Obama Trump voter, or the Obama Trump Biden Trump voter,

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Speaker 1: it's all thanks to Rich here and he goes state

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Speaker 1: by state. Tessed with him. I watch Sheep has a

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel. It's there. He puts up highlights of his

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Speaker 1: monthly swing voter groups that he does. There was one

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Speaker 1: in Michigan that I spent a lot of time. If

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Speaker 1: you guys will recall those sophisticated listeners of my podcast

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Speaker 1: have already heard me taut Rich's focus groups of Michigan.

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Speaker 1: He's got some new ones in Pennsylvania, but he's probably

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Speaker 1: arguably talked to more Biden Trump voters than anybody in

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Speaker 1: America and probably has his pulse, his finger on the

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Speaker 1: pulse of these voters as well as anybody. Rich hod

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Speaker 1: I do promoting you on this one, and you know what,

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Speaker 1: am I leaving.

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Speaker 2: Out ten out of ten? Perfect job, Thank you. It's

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Speaker 2: an honor to be with you, Chuck. I really appreciate it.

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Speaker 1: And you're also doing a Decider's project which is very similar. Again,

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Speaker 1: these are it's all qualitative research. It's focus groups, it's

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Speaker 1: not polling. And I want to get into sort of

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Speaker 1: those the differences in those techniques and the ability now

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Speaker 1: that you can focus we have larger and larger focus groups.

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Speaker 1: At what point does it become quantitative instead of qualitative?

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Speaker 1: We can talk about that, but you really are you

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Speaker 1: really are a big You feel like you get a

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Speaker 1: lot out of focus groups, don't you?

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Speaker 3: I do.

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Speaker 2: And the reason for that is a lot of people

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Speaker 2: in research like to count heads.

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Speaker 3: I like to see what's inside people's heads.

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Speaker 2: And that's the distinction between quant and qual For me

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Speaker 2: is I want to understand why people believe what they

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Speaker 2: believe what they know, as opposed to guessing what they know,

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Speaker 2: as supposed to me only saying well, seventy one percent

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Speaker 2: believe this, twenty nine percent believe that.

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Speaker 1: No, it's it's I always say, the single most important

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Speaker 1: question I try to answer all the time in political

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Speaker 1: analysis is the why? Right? Why is at the core

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Speaker 1: It's the single most important question I think that we

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Speaker 1: try to answer in the political space. Well, let's just

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Speaker 1: get Look, you started this. You've gone ten years now

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Speaker 1: essentially doing these. I feel like you first started doing

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Speaker 1: the Obama Trump voter focus groups back in the first

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Speaker 1: Trump term. I did. So you're getting close to ten

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Speaker 1: years of data now.

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Speaker 3: Aren't you? Not quite?

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Speaker 2: I'm getting closing in after March of twenty nineteen, So

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Speaker 2: I again, cause the first month we did it in

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Speaker 2: person in Appleton, Wisconsin. In fact, for the first thirteen

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Speaker 2: months from March of twenty nineteen through March of twenty twenty,

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Speaker 2: we did them in person. I traveled between the East

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Speaker 2: Coast and the Midwest month after month, and the pandemic

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Speaker 2: set in. We didn't miss a month. We just kept

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Speaker 2: going and did them online and became a little bit

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Speaker 2: easier to recruit because people didn't have to physically go

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Speaker 2: to a location and we could get people from across

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Speaker 2: an entire state as opposed to merely one town or

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Speaker 2: one region in a state. So the pandemic actually tragic

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Speaker 2: for so many people. Actually for us worked out well

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Speaker 2: for this particular project.

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Speaker 1: Has this totally Before we get into sort of the

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Speaker 1: substance of what you've been finding over the last few

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Speaker 1: months is the entire focus group world changed to do

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Speaker 1: in person focus groups matter anymore.

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Speaker 3: So, I think they matter.

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Speaker 2: A lot of the vendors who had facilities close them

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Speaker 2: permanently because people were more than willing to do them online.

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Speaker 3: So it's a lot of change in that.

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Speaker 1: Particular to do it online right instead of you know,

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Speaker 1: hanging out for a couple hours, even though you're getting

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Speaker 1: paid at some office park, you know, in the suburbs.

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Speaker 3: Exactly.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, from a respondent perspective, it definitely was less work

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Speaker 2: for them, although I should say it's more work for

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Speaker 2: my team because we have to actually, if we want

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Speaker 2: to do it right, pre qualify people not just in

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Speaker 2: terms of their demographics and psychographics, but also their Internet connectivity.

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Speaker 2: You know, literally do they have enough megabits to be

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Speaker 2: on a zoom call for an hour and a half

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Speaker 2: without freezing up over and over again. So we actually

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Speaker 2: literally test every person with a tech check. Well before

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Speaker 2: you just had to show up and sit in a

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Speaker 2: seat and you know, eat a turkey sandwich with some

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Speaker 2: potato chips. So it's a very different type of experience

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Speaker 2: from my team. But from the response perspective, you know

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Speaker 2: they're in a comfortable spot. I have to worry about

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Speaker 2: things like dogs barking and kids bothering people during the

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Speaker 2: focus group, and I enjoy the experience more in person,

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Speaker 2: and I can moderate a larger group in person. I

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Speaker 2: can do ten or twelve people in person, but ten

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Speaker 2: or twelve boxes on a screen and zoom is impossible.

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Speaker 3: My max is like seven.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, I've conducted focus groups a few times myself.

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Speaker 1: I've observed quite a few of them in person and

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Speaker 1: virtually and count me as a skeptic of the in

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Speaker 1: person focus group. And here's why, Rich, And I'm curious

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Speaker 1: how you factor this in. I think it's a lot

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Speaker 1: easier for one person to hijack and in person focus

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Speaker 1: group than it is a virtual focus group. And that's

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Speaker 1: always the danger when you're doing this qualitative research, is

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Speaker 1: it not.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, the hijacking thing, you have to be super

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Speaker 2: careful about that. So I'll give you away one of

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Speaker 2: my big secrets, Chuck. I don't think I've ever said

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Speaker 2: this publicly before. I have been trying to figure out

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Speaker 2: I had been trying to figure out for years, how

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Speaker 2: do you get the loudmouth person not to get recruited

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Speaker 2: into the focus group. And I didn't find a perfect solution,

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Speaker 2: but I found something that I think anecdotally has worked,

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Speaker 2: which is, we have a screening question that says, do

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Speaker 2: you have any bumper stickers on your car that convey

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Speaker 2: a political message? The idea being if you want the

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Speaker 2: entire world to know what you believe politically so much

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Speaker 2: so you're stuck it on the back bumper of your car,

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Speaker 2: I probably don't want you in my focus group.

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Speaker 1: Interesting to use that as an eliminator.

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Speaker 3: I used that as eliminating.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, absolutely love it. I love it. What a great

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Speaker 1: eliminator question.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so again, it's not perfect.

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Speaker 2: But the other thing is what's the quality of the

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Speaker 2: moderating right, If you're a decent moderator, you know how

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Speaker 2: to put the loudmouth person who happens to show up

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Speaker 2: back in their corner, carefully, respectfully, repeatedly if necessary.

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Speaker 3: And I just find it's it takes practice.

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Speaker 2: There are techniques doing it, and if you're a crummy moderator,

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Speaker 2: you can't do it, and the person dominates the conversation,

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Speaker 2: and that's.

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Speaker 1: No, and then you've ruined the focus grip. I've ruined

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Speaker 1: the focus So I've seen that. Look, it's why frankly

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Speaker 1: a professional like yourself, Peter. I you know what, I

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Speaker 1: The person I observed the most over the years was

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Speaker 1: Peter Hart. Other than yourself. There's there's another prominent person

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Speaker 1: out there who I think is a bit too leading

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Speaker 1: in his focus group moderating at times, mister Lunce. And

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Speaker 1: I'm very friendly with him. You are too. We like Frank.

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Speaker 1: He is in some ways made focus groups great, right,

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Speaker 1: made more people aware of them sometimes, I think, and

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Speaker 1: I actually wonder, can you be an effective focus group

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Speaker 1: moderator if people know who you are before it starts.

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Speaker 2: So I don't want to disparage Frank. I've known him

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Speaker 2: again thirty plus years.

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Speaker 1: No, and he was arguably a pioneer in helping to

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Speaker 1: make this a mainstream idea to study political habits.

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Speaker 2: And dial testing, which he popular which is kind of

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Speaker 2: key thing I do in my message testing work.

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Speaker 1: Very important.

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Speaker 2: I think One reason why I have generally flown below

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Speaker 2: the radar is that I want to be anonymous right

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Speaker 2: to the people who who sit down in a focus group,

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Speaker 2: and I've I've had focused group respondents come up to

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Speaker 2: me and say that I'm somehow different from Frank Luntz,

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Speaker 2: who were had where they had been responded in his

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Speaker 2: group prior to being in mind and offline.

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Speaker 3: I'll tell you a very funny story. I don't want

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Speaker 3: to repeat it public.

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Speaker 1: No, and again I don't I'm not We're not trying

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Speaker 1: to pick on Frank here. But look, I found this

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Speaker 1: difficult myself, right I And you know, in the in

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Speaker 1: the world of network news, you know, they want you know,

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Speaker 1: you want Chuck Todd and they're talking to voters, right

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Speaker 1: and you talk to independent voters. It was really hard

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Speaker 1: sometimes to get them to to you know, not feel

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Speaker 1: like they were talking to Chuck Todd and feeling like

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Speaker 1: they were trying to make an answer that I might

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Speaker 1: have in their own heads that I might quote unquote

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Speaker 1: approve of or and it's just like no, no, no, no,

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Speaker 1: It's like you don't you know I'm trying to you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to, you know, pretend I'm not here type

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Speaker 1: of mindset, and that's why I asked that. And I've

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Speaker 1: wondered if Frank, in some ways you can't make the

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Speaker 1: focus group about the moderator. That's my point, and I

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Speaker 1: think that's where I have failed, and I'm guessing that

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Speaker 1: Frank struggles sometimes with that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think for me, I'm a boring ass, late

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Speaker 2: middle aged white guy, and I am as vanilla as

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Speaker 2: I can possibly be in the focus groups.

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Speaker 1: I am very good at a failure, not very vanilla.

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Speaker 1: But yes, you play vanilla well on TV.

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Speaker 2: Well, I do, because that's how you get the right answer.

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Speaker 2: And also that's how you don't get accused of being biased, right,

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Speaker 2: And I really do everything I can to try to

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Speaker 2: again throw the pitch straight down the middle of the plate.

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Speaker 1: What is how do you verify? You know everybody wants

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Speaker 1: to say they're a swing voter. Do you go to

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Speaker 1: the voter file to verify these folks? I know you've

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Speaker 1: got a recruiting team, is it, Sego? I think, does

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Speaker 1: your recruiting for all of your focus group projects? Do

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Speaker 1: you do voter file verification on these people?

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Speaker 2: So I do not let me tell you what we

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Speaker 2: do do. So This is an imperfect process. I am

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Speaker 2: the first person to admit it. It is impossible to

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Speaker 2: know who voted for whom or whether they voted. It's

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Speaker 2: possible to know whether they voted. It' impossible to know

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Speaker 2: for whom they voted. No one was in the voting

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Speaker 2: booth or sitting at the kitchen table with them if

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Speaker 2: they voted at home. Right, So two parts of the

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Speaker 2: recruiting process. Part one sego recruits them and does not

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Speaker 2: ask them are you a swing voter? They ask who'd

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Speaker 2: you vote for in twenty twenty four, and then four

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Speaker 2: years earlier, who'd you vote for.

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Speaker 3: In twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: If they happen to say Trump and twenty four Biden

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Speaker 2: in twenty, then they immediately make the first cut.

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Speaker 3: But that's not enough for me. I have a person

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Speaker 3: on my team.

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Speaker 2: His name is Matt, and one of his jobs is

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Speaker 2: to personally interview every single one of these swing voters

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Speaker 2: before the focus group and say, okay, you said you

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Speaker 2: voted for Trump and twenty four, why did you vote

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Speaker 2: for Trump and twenty four? Why did you vote for

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Speaker 2: Biden in twenty twenty? And if they can't give a

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Speaker 2: plot pausible answer to those questions, they're not invited into

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Speaker 2: the group.

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Speaker 3: We toss them overboard.

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Speaker 1: You don't try because another screening question I've heard is

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Speaker 1: how did you vote in twenty twenty? Not who did

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Speaker 1: you vote for? But do you remember how you voted

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Speaker 1: and where you went to vote? I've heard sometimes that

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Speaker 1: can be an effective screener question to find out if

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Speaker 1: people are byes and you're not.

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Speaker 3: It could be, and maybe we'll start doing it now

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Speaker 3: that you suggested it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think it's there's no Again, there's no

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Speaker 2: perfect way of doing this. And note and what happens

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Speaker 2: is people's memories fate. I mean, last year we did

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Speaker 2: focus groups in twenty twenty four we were asking about

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Speaker 2: their voting patterns in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. You know,

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Speaker 2: I don't remember what I had for breakfast two days ago.

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Speaker 1: Low and well, especially with COVID brain rich, we've all

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Speaker 1: liked none. I can't remember anything in twenty nineteen and

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Speaker 1: twenty fourteen are the same year to me. Sometimes, right,

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Speaker 1: anything pre COVID is just a blur.

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Speaker 3: That's it.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, and so again, no perfect way of doing this.

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Speaker 2: The thing is people, well I think labels us to

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Speaker 2: get at least. Something that I think is close to

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Speaker 2: the most truthful answer that's out there is the fact

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Speaker 2: that people don't know who or what category we're looking for.

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Speaker 2: If they knew we were looking for Trump voters, are

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Speaker 2: looking for consistent Democratic voters, they would answer that way

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Speaker 2: to get their one hundred and twenty five bucks, But

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Speaker 2: not knowing what we're looking for, it gives them no

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Speaker 2: reason to lie to us.

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Speaker 1: So one hundred and twenty five bucks a session, right,

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Speaker 1: and that's what the time commitment is? What three hours?

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Speaker 1: Two hours? What?

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Speaker 2: No? No, no, no, no, it's a total an hour

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Speaker 2: and forty five minutes, fifteen minutes sort of warm up,

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Speaker 2: and then ninety minutes of conversation.

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Speaker 1: Rich, you are going to have a whole bunch of

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Speaker 1: my listeners are going to really one hundred twenty five

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Speaker 1: bucks for less than two hours of work? Count me in.

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Speaker 3: It's a good deal.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not a bad deal. Eighty bucks an hour?

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Speaker 1: Huh a right, not quite yeah, pretty close, No, not

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Speaker 1: quite that. What are we looking at? Sixty bucks an hour?

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Speaker 1: But so yeah, not been a good money. Yeah, it's good.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's dig in. You just did Pennsylvania and

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Speaker 1: you're just doing the seven battleground states and you're literally

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Speaker 1: going in a rotation every month. Yeah, it's not.

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Speaker 2: Quite a rotation, but it's where we were hitting each

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Speaker 2: state at least once and most of them twice in

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Speaker 2: the year.

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Speaker 1: Got it. So Michigan was the one you flagged a

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Speaker 1: few to me there that was fascinating. And I keep

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Speaker 1: talking about this one before we get into Pennsylvania, where

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Speaker 1: we're going to play some clips for you folks, so

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Speaker 1: get ready for that. The Michigan group from September. What

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Speaker 1: stood out to me there was there was this one

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Speaker 1: gentleman who was really concerned about the consolidation of power,

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Speaker 1: the lack of checks on Trump, all of these things,

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Speaker 1: thought he was being power hungry and wasn't ready to

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Speaker 1: change their vote. Has that been a consistent finding? Are

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Speaker 1: you starting to see that? Was there a consistency between

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Speaker 1: Michigan and Pennsylvania on that issue?

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Speaker 2: So what's consistent is that not every month, but I've

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Speaker 2: come across a number of those people who are giving

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Speaker 2: very anti Trump comments but would not take Harris if

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Speaker 2: they had to redo the vote. And it happened again

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Speaker 2: this month in Pennsylvania. I send you a clip on

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Speaker 2: that where I had a woman who said she disapproved

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Speaker 2: of Trump.

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Speaker 1: I don't. Actually I have it here and I want

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Speaker 1: to get into this a second, and let's let's you

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Speaker 1: dove into it, but we're going to play the clip

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Speaker 1: for folks.

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Speaker 4: I disapprove because number one, he's a felon. I don't

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Speaker 4: think a fellon should be president of the United States.

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Speaker 4: He's a pathological liar. This ice thing is getting out

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Speaker 4: of control. If is getting out of control. The government

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Speaker 4: is shut down, and I don't think that he's doing

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Speaker 4: enough for the people. Prices or sky high like.

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Speaker 5: Insurance premiums are going to be going up, and I

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Speaker 5: think that he could do something about it.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Brenda, my part of my job is to play

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Speaker 2: devil's advocate. So if you love me in a second,

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Speaker 2: to let me ask you a question. So you mentioned

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Speaker 2: that he's a convicted felon. He was a convicted felon

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Speaker 2: before the election. What you voted for him knowing he

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Speaker 2: was a convicted felon? So why are you holding that

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Speaker 2: against him now?

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Speaker 6: I guess, well, he there should have been something in

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Speaker 6: place in the constitution. I know what you're asking me,

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Speaker 6: but I don't know it didn't bother me then, but

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Speaker 6: now it is because there's so many things coming out,

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Speaker 6: like you know, with the Maxwell files and all these things.

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Speaker 6: So I think the Constitution should have done a better

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Speaker 6: job by saying number one, that he had no political

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Speaker 6: experience at all, and that the other thing is a.

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Speaker 2: Convicted brend I'm sorry, I'm me to be argumentative at all,

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Speaker 2: but he had been president for four years. He had

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Speaker 2: experience when you voted for him again last November.

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Speaker 7: Right, yeah, so I'm I'm I'm some a bit confused,

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Speaker 7: like why did you choose him over Kamala Harris?

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Speaker 5: Because I thought the heme was better that I didn't

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Speaker 5: particularly like her, so between the two, it was like

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Speaker 5: I had to go with him because I didn't like her.

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Speaker 1: You insert yourself and say, you know, he was a

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Speaker 1: convicted felon before you voted for him in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: and then Rich she goes through this Hammin and Han

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Speaker 1: and she basically like, I just couldn't vote for Kamala harr.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Now, Brenda was awesome. That was quite an exchange.

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Speaker 2: She really had a lot of reasons why she didn't

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Speaker 2: approve and some of them had nothing to do with

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Speaker 2: her vote. Because she's just complaining. Also, he didn't have experience,

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Speaker 2: And I said, well, he served for four years as president.

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Speaker 2: You can't say in twenty twenty four he didn't have experience, right.

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Speaker 2: So but really, what it came down to for her

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Speaker 2: was she couldn't vote for Harris. And what I keep

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Speaker 2: encountering your earlier point is that there are folks who

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Speaker 2: twist themselves into pretzels to justify not choosing Harris then

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Speaker 2: and not choosing Harris now if they could revote, they

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Speaker 2: just for a variety of reasons, cannot abide her and

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Speaker 2: will take anything from Trump.

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Speaker 1: Richard, Are we going to talk around the elephant in

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Speaker 1: the room? Right? I mean, it's hard not to wonder

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Speaker 1: if this had to do with her being a black woman.

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Speaker 2: Well, so you've got multiple issues there, right, You've got

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Speaker 2: woman of color, person of color, and female. So I've

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Speaker 2: come across in the course of the last year plus,

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Speaker 2: people who wouldn't vote for her because she was female,

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Speaker 2: who told me.

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Speaker 1: Explicitly that they wouldn't vote for her because she was.

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Speaker 2: Female, People who danced around the race issue. But certainly

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Speaker 2: I suspected from the comments that they that was the reason.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's funny like, look, Brenda's it's one of those.

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Speaker 1: She says, I thought he was better than I didn't

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Speaker 1: particularly like her, so between the two, it was like

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Speaker 1: I had to go with it because they didn't like

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Speaker 1: her like she doesn't. She can't can't articulate why she

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Speaker 1: doesn't like her.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and keep in mind, Brent is a woman of color,

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Speaker 2: so super super interesting, and I've got I.

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Speaker 1: Don't know what to make of that. That's fair.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, but I can tell you what to make

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Speaker 2: of it. To me, it's fractly pretty straightforward. For some

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Speaker 2: of these folks I spoke to, they are either deeply

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Speaker 2: religious or deeply conservative socially, they think that men should

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Speaker 2: be in control, men should be in power, women should not, and.

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Speaker 1: Biden was somebody they could vote for. But Clinton and

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Speaker 1: Harris may have been literally simply their gender may have

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Speaker 1: been the disqualifier for these voters.

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Speaker 2: It would have been a large part of the consideration,

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Speaker 2: along with By the way, a lot of these folks

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Speaker 2: thought that Biden failed and she was part of a

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Speaker 2: failed administration, and they didn't want to have their fingerprints

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Speaker 2: on that for the next four years.

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Speaker 1: There's a reason results matter more than promises. Just like.

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Speaker 1: There's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury

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Speaker 1: law firm. For the last thirty five years, they've recovered

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Speaker 1: twenty five billion dollars for more than half a million clients.

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Speaker 1: It includes cases where insurance companies offered next to nothing,

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Speaker 1: just hoping to get away with paying as little as possible.

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Speaker 1: Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact,

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Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, one client was awarded twenty six million dollars,

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Speaker 1: which was a staggering forty times the amount that the

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Speaker 1: insurance company originally offered. That original offer six hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars. So with more than one thousand lawyers across

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Speaker 1: the country, they know how to deliver for everyday people.

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Speaker 1: If you're injured, you need a lawyer, You need somebody

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Speaker 1: to get your back. Check out for Thepeople dot com,

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Speaker 1: Slash podcast, or dial pound Law Pound five to nine

393
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Speaker 1: law on your cell phone. And remember all law firms

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00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 1: are not the same, So check out Morgan and Morgan.

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Speaker 1: Their fee is free unless they win. I look at

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Speaker 1: the twenty twenty four campaign. You know and there's different

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Speaker 1: ways people want to interpret it. I was actually relieved

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Speaker 1: to know that voting was normal. It is normal to

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Speaker 1: me that people simply vote against and vote on the

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Speaker 1: economy like that has been you know, That's how you

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Speaker 1: and I were professionally raised in politics, right Rich, Like

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Speaker 1: that is how it worked in the eighties and the

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Speaker 1: nineties and the odds, Like, that's just how it worked.

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Speaker 1: Only recently have we made all these other issues in there,

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Speaker 1: and you're like, oh, wait a minute, post COVID voters

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Speaker 1: are starting to behave we're more normally again. It's about finances,

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Speaker 1: it's about competency.

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Speaker 3: It is and I will say on whether you have

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Speaker 3: E clip on this also.

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Speaker 2: But one thing that we uncover month after month is

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Speaker 2: that the dissatisfaction with Trump among these Biden to Trump voters,

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Speaker 2: among those who are dissatisfied with him now, it's mostly tied,

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Speaker 2: not exclusively, but mostly tied to the state of the

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Speaker 2: economy and how they're struggling, and how they see a

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Speaker 2: billionaire who doesn't need to have to worry about these things,

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Speaker 2: not addressing the concern that most matters to them.

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Speaker 8: Doesn't affect him. Simple he's not feeling the effects of it.

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Speaker 8: So when you're not directly impacted by something, even if

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Speaker 8: it's going on around you, you tend not to worry

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Speaker 8: about it. He's too busy playing hopscotch in Russia. I

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Speaker 8: don't know, he's just not worried about anything over here.

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Speaker 9: Well, I think that he's more focused overall on the

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Speaker 9: economy as a whole. He's focused on using tariffs and

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Speaker 9: carpet bombing with tariffs to try to force deals, which

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Speaker 9: he hopes eventually will address inflation. But it's not he

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Speaker 9: thinks he's going to bring jobs back by forcing these tariffs.

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Speaker 9: It's almost an unforced error. If he was focusing on

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Speaker 9: one place than another with his tariffs, it wouldn't hurt

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Speaker 9: as bad. But he just has to hit everybody all once,

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Speaker 9: all at the same time with them, and it's causing

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Speaker 9: mayhem with prices of goods and services overall.

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Speaker 1: What I find remarkable is how much they're following the

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Speaker 1: day to day on tariffs like these. Weren't uninformed voters

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Speaker 1: about the current state of the economy, which if I

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Speaker 1: were in the Trump white House that would really make

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Speaker 1: me nervous. They're following this tariff stuff fairly closely.

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Speaker 2: So one of the great fascinations I have with the

438
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 2: project now compared to a year ago when I was

439
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 2: doing then Trump to Biden voters as supposed to now

440
00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 2: Biden to Trump voters, was that I would ask Biden

441
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 2: voters people vote for him in twenty twenty, please name,

442
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 2: if you could, one thing that President Biden has achieved

443
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 2: in office that he himself would call an achievement. So

444
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 2: I didn't want a snarky answer like, oh, he achieved

445
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 2: high inflation. I didn't want so, okay, So the people

446
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 2: would stop, and about roughly half each time I asked

447
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,400
Speaker 2: it could not name a single thing that Biden had

448
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 2: achieved in office that he himself would call an achievement.

449
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:57,360
Speaker 2: And among those who could name something, way disproportionately it

450
00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 2: was the same topic student loan relief.

451
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 1: No kidding, now, infrastructure, which was actually probably the best

452
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 1: to achievement he got.

453
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 2: You know, chuck It says, though infrastructure never happened, chips

454
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:14,680
Speaker 2: never happened, Relief Act never happened, Inflation Reduction Act never happened.

455
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 2: So for them, I want you imagine the mind of

456
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 2: a swing voter. Now I'll get to the Trump point

457
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 2: about it in a second. The comparison. So you're thinking

458
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:26,679
Speaker 2: about President Biden, you're thinking, okay, so he's basically slept

459
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,880
Speaker 2: through the last three and a half years. One time

460
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 2: they came to him with an executive order, he signed

461
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,640
Speaker 2: it trying to relieve student debt, and that's all he did.

462
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 3: And that's your conception of him.

463
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 2: Trump comes in and suddenly he's in the news constantly,

464
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 2: He's in your social media feed constantly, and if you

465
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 2: have voted for him, you're like, finally someone is doing something.

466
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:55,439
Speaker 2: So it's the bias toward action versus the disapproval of inertia,

467
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 2: which is what they associated with Biden. And I can't

468
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 2: tell you how many times this year I've heard about Trump.

469
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:04,439
Speaker 2: At least he's doing something. Whether they like it or not.

470
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 2: They still like the fact that there's action as opposed

471
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:08,359
Speaker 2: to Biden's inertia.

472
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,680
Speaker 1: No, I've always said that what's interesting, there's always motion

473
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 1: with Trump. The question is is their movement. Like I

474
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 1: have always said, I feel like life with Trump, covering

475
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:23,159
Speaker 1: him is literally like being on a roller coaster because

476
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 1: you get on and off in the same place.

477
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:30,159
Speaker 2: Well, but that's from your perspective, getting as close to

478
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 2: the process as you are.

479
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 3: You see that. I think that nuance is lost with

480
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 3: the folks that I'm talking to.

481
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 2: So, you know, Trump's his flair for the dramatic. His

482
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 2: ability to sign his name in huge bowld letters with

483
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 2: a big sharpie and to hold it up. That looks

484
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:50,199
Speaker 2: like action to someone who didn't happen to see Biden

485
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 2: signing these multi trillion dollar bills into law, and Trump's

486
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 2: doing it repeatedly. The image of him in the Oval

487
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 2: Office is him holding up some leather binder with his

488
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,639
Speaker 2: big signature on it and then boasting about it.

489
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 3: And for people I talked to, that's action.

490
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting Rich to take a step back here.

491
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:12,879
Speaker 1: Biden really was an outlier of the last thirty years

492
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 1: in how they conducted that presidency. When I think about

493
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 1: the image management of the you know, Michael Deaver and

494
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan right when when I was you know, and

495
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:26,160
Speaker 1: how you know, I basically we in college we studied

496
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 1: Michael Deaver as image management in my political science classes.

497
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,919
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton was clearly always you know, some you know

498
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 1: people say he was. We would borrow some of Reagan's

499
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:40,439
Speaker 1: gestures and stuff, and he had he was always performing

500
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 1: George W. Bush. They were very image conscious. It ended

501
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 1: up biting them in the butt with the mission accomplished

502
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 1: thing at one point. But again, it was about the visuals.

503
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 1: It was about always, you know, showing showing him and

504
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:53,959
Speaker 1: what they wanted to put him in the best possible light.

505
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:58,120
Speaker 1: Barack Obama was really very much engaged that way. Trump too.

506
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 1: Biden was the out liar. And I guess it's a

507
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 1: combination of old COVID, right, you sort of put all

508
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 1: those together, and you know, I wonder if if the

509
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 1: Democrats are overrating their problems. Basically, they just had a

510
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 1: nominee that just wasn't built for the modern media age.

511
00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:21,919
Speaker 2: Now, to me, he dealt with the media the way

512
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 2: Jerry Ford dealt with the media, which is seriously, I mean.

513
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 1: It was make that a Jerry Ford reference. You're probably losing, right.

514
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly that.

515
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 2: I'll sign a bill, have a ceremonial, We'll invite the

516
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 2: three major networks and everybody will know about it, and

517
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 2: lo and behold, they didn't. And I have a whole

518
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 2: montage I can show it to you someday of swing

519
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:45,920
Speaker 2: voters in during Biden's term having no idea what was

520
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 2: going on in terms of process in Washington, achievements. Did

521
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 2: no idea he worked on climate change, no idea about infrastructure, No,

522
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,400
Speaker 2: didn't know it. Who served on the January sixth committee.

523
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:56,400
Speaker 2: I mean, just go down the list of stuff they

524
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 2: just didn't pay attention to. And so the challenge it's

525
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 2: really obviously we're dancing around the term. It's the attention

526
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 2: economy we're living in that Trump has mastered it. Biden

527
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 2: never mastered it. And I would argue if the Democrats

528
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 2: have any chance of winning anything again, they have to

529
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 2: learn how to master it, because that's the world we're

530
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 2: living in where people are distracted constantly and Trump manages

531
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 2: to break through it, and you've got to.

532
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting because I'll have my friends in

533
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 1: the left say it's you. People in the media didn't

534
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:26,399
Speaker 1: do enough to showcase Biden, and I'm like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.

535
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:30,159
Speaker 1: I'm like, you know, if you actually do all your

536
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:32,640
Speaker 1: Google searching up, there's plenty of coverage of everything you did.

537
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 1: What was missing was Biden trying to amplify the coverage himself.

538
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:40,679
Speaker 1: And I think, what you know, what just about everybody

539
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 1: in corporate America is doing I assume you have a

540
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 1: for profit client list these days who are thinking the

541
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,640
Speaker 1: same thing, which is you've got to take it. You've

542
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 1: got to do your own communicating. You can't rely on

543
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 1: legacy media, free media anymore. And if you are, you're losing, right,

544
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 1: anybody that does that, whether you're a politician or your

545
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 1: Coca cola right, you've got you know, Bud Light found

546
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 1: out the hard way. Right, You've got to be take advance.

547
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:09,159
Speaker 1: You've got to proactively do your own communicating. This is

548
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 1: not all the media's job, is this or this? We're

549
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 1: all the media now, including the communications shop of the

550
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 1: White House. And I think in that this is where

551
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 1: Biden's entire operation was a relic. Yeah.

552
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:25,159
Speaker 2: I mean, you're personally way more entrepreneurial about this than

553
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 2: the entire White House was in the last administration. So

554
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,439
Speaker 2: I mean that's the difference, and I think people have

555
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 2: to understand that. And the thing was a lot of

556
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 2: people follow the Swing Voter project, people on the left,

557
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 2: people on the right. There are folks in the Biden

558
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 2: administration I know paid attention to what I was producing

559
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 2: each month, and it was abundantly clear from these highlights

560
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 2: videos I put out that the message wasn't getting through,

561
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 2: and I was always mystified by this. Now it wasn't

562
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 2: just me. Obviously, I'm just one guy out there. I'm

563
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 2: not tied to the administration. I mean, Republicans like what

564
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 2: I do too, But my god, like, really, month after month,

565
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 2: I'm discovering that no one knows about your multi trillion

566
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 2: dollar legislative achievements. How is that not something that you're

567
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 2: solving for? I was, again, just a question I'm asking.

568
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 2: Let's put it that.

569
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 1: Way, all right. I want to do another excerpt here

570
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 1: because this is a little counterintuitive to what I think

571
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 1: conventional wisdom is these days, is whether Trump is exercising

572
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 1: more executive power trying to consolidate the presidency. We've had

573
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 1: the no King's rally, right, is this penetrating? Is this

574
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 1: an issue? So let's play this exchange. You have Kaylana

575
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 1: h Anthony D Jim b All responding here on this

576
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 1: question of the simple question you asked, was you know,

577
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 1: do you see Trump exercising more power than Biden, Obama

578
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 1: and Bush. So let's let's sen know those answers.

579
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 10: I mean, they've all deported people, They've all, you know,

580
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 10: done different things. But I mean, maybe not in the

581
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 10: same towards the same topic, but I think generally as

582
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 10: a whole, Dave, he's about the same with executive power.

583
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 3: Okay, Anthony, what about you?

584
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 11: Similar to what was said that, I think that, but

585
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 11: being in the president, he has ultimate authority similar to

586
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 11: what the other roles were as well with the other

587
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 11: previous presidents. Maybe he's more vocal saying it, but I

588
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 11: think I don't see any difference with what they were

589
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 11: able to do and what they've done.

590
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:31,239
Speaker 12: Barack Obama and Joe Biden had more executive orders than

591
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 12: any president by numbers.

592
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 1: I'm sorry.

593
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 12: George Bush and Barack Obama had more executive orders than

594
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 12: anyone they had. I mean, George Bush used the nine

595
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 12: to eleven bombing to push consolidate power in the presidency.

596
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 12: Barack Obama did it because he had pretty much everyone

597
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 12: behind him for whatever he did. So those two definitely,

598
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 12: if not more the same amount.

599
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what's interesting here, Rich, is that they

600
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 1: they all think it's no different than Obama or Bush

601
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 1: in particular, and even Biden to an extent. Yeah.

602
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 2: So the thirteen people I had in Pennsylvania, about half

603
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 2: of them thought he was exercising more, but about half

604
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 2: of them thought it was the same amount as these

605
00:31:20,040 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 2: prior presidents. And as just noted in these clips, they're

606
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 2: basically saying, well, you know, Obama did this executive thing,

607
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 2: and Biden did this thing, and they're comparing what they

608
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 2: see Trump doing to what these prior presidents doing, and

609
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 2: they don't detect a qualitative difference. And to me, that

610
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 2: was so fascinating is that the media is constantly talking

611
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 2: about how Trump is breaking all these norms, but they

612
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 2: don't see that. They see Trump as just being part

613
00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 2: of a continualum of presidents doing things they shouldn't be doing.

614
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 1: Let me let me posit something here for you to

615
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 1: take in, which is whether it was amplify. Fine, I'm

616
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 1: going to connect something here from the one thing Biden

617
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:07,560
Speaker 1: that you said voters took away from what they thought

618
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 1: Biden accomplished with student loans. What's interesting about that topic

619
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,240
Speaker 1: that happens to be a topic that the right also

620
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 1: amplified when he did it. When I look at executive

621
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 1: power with Bush, Obama and Biden, and Trump, the party

622
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 1: out of power would amplify anytime that they thought they

623
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 1: were over using their power. Bush with FISA and all

624
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: of that, Obama with his executive orders, Biden with what

625
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:38,720
Speaker 1: he did. You know, it seems as if the only

626
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 1: way these swing voters actually get an idea of what

627
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 1: a president does is not only how they amplify it,

628
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 1: but how the opponents amplify it. And this strikes me

629
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 1: as while maybe we as sort of more neutral Washington

630
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 1: pros and understand how executive power works, and yeah, Trump

631
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:02,720
Speaker 1: really is consolidating power way we haven't seen before, because

632
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 1: that accusation has been out there about, you know, from

633
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 1: the right on Obama and Biden and from the left

634
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 1: on Bush and Trump. It is not unusual to the

635
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 1: average swing voter, is it.

636
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 3: It's not. I think that's a brilliant observation.

637
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 2: And having your actions defined by your enemies means that

638
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 2: you don't necessarily have control of that narrative. It's obviously

639
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 2: it's coming from the people who disagree with you. And

640
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 2: it could easily be the case that the people who

641
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 2: I talk to who are unhappy with Trump's executive actions

642
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 2: are getting their news from sources that are amplifying that

643
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 2: in a way that the people who aren't bothered by

644
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 2: his actions.

645
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, reaction are you seeing. Is that a pattern

646
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:52,560
Speaker 1: that you noticed when you started this back in twenty nineteen,

647
00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 1: that in some way what breaks through is not just

648
00:33:56,480 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 1: what is what the opponents are also talking about, that

649
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 1: that's ultimately what breaks through is when you actually engage,

650
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 1: when you get both positive coverage and negative coverage.

651
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard to chuck because the the I ask

652
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 2: people every month where they get their news from traditional media,

653
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,919
Speaker 2: whether they get it from social media, and this splintering

654
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,279
Speaker 2: and the splintering has been around since the beginning of

655
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 2: the project. People get their news from a variety of sources,

656
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 2: but more and more of them are telling me they're

657
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 2: getting in the news mostly or exclusively from social media sources.

658
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 2: So I'm finding that the universe that they're in is

659
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 2: just totally different from the news consumption that you may

660
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 2: have or I may have. And the idea that someone

661
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 2: never looks at a traditional media outlet ever and they

662
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 2: get their news from TikTok.

663
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 3: If a war broke out, you know, my first inclination.

664
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:52,800
Speaker 2: Would be, let's go and see how NBC or CNN

665
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:59,440
Speaker 2: is covering it or Fox. Why How could you just

666
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,760
Speaker 2: be looking at TikTok videos? If the United States is attacked.

667
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 1: Well, let me reassure you about something. Actually, I was

668
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 1: involved with a conference called Trust in Media and where

669
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,800
Speaker 1: it's more about trust in the entire information ecosystem, working

670
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 1: with a group of folks who come actually from the

671
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 1: national security space, people that worked in the first Trump term,

672
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 1: who were worried about the health of the information ecosystem. Right,

673
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 1: this is bigger than just journalism. And so we had

674
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 1: a presentation John Delavope, who's done a lot of gen

675
00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 1: Z and millennial work, one of the notations and Edelman

676
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:34,760
Speaker 1: also did a presentation that when there is breaking news,

677
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 1: when there is a huge story, that there is still

678
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,760
Speaker 1: a desire to go to a main, a legacy news source,

679
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 1: and that even among gen Z or millennials, the only

680
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 1: almost the one time that they will check into those

681
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 1: sources is if something big is happening, right, a big moment,

682
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 1: they think, oh, I better go check that out. Right,

683
00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: there's a shooting or there's a storm or something like that.

684
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:04,239
Speaker 1: So it's not all TikTok yet, right, I mean I was.

685
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 1: I was oddly reassured that younger folks, who are almost

686
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 1: mostly getting their stuff and essentially curating their own media,

687
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 1: is what I call it it's self curation. Some of

688
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:19,799
Speaker 1: it is legacy, but they don't know that it's legacy. Right.

689
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 1: They follow somebody specifically who just happens to work at

690
00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 1: a legacy media company. Right. But I was I thought

691
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:30,400
Speaker 1: that was interesting, So I take your point there. But

692
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 1: it does feel like when the chips are down, they think, oh,

693
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 1: those big companies have the resources to do live reporting

694
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 1: right now. Right, there's still that perception out there.

695
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:40,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess I question is how often does that

696
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 2: happen given their lack of knowledge of all the things

697
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:45,800
Speaker 2: that Biden did for four years that were widely covered

698
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 2: when they happened. That's why, and particularly Chuck, the things

699
00:36:50,120 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 2: that get missed by my swing voters are process related things,

700
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:57,880
Speaker 2: legislation getting passed in Congress, things being signed into law,

701
00:36:58,160 --> 00:36:59,800
Speaker 2: and emotional hearings.

702
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 3: That's the they never happened for most of these folks.

703
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 1: All right, Well, here's I'm gonna the last clip we're

704
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:08,799
Speaker 1: going to play here is as a this is this

705
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 1: to me is the probably one of your favorite questions

706
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 1: because you just find out what is breaking through? You

707
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:17,600
Speaker 1: asked us each month, what question would you ask President

708
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 1: Trump if you could ask him anything. So let's play

709
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 1: all the responses here.

710
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,359
Speaker 4: But ask why so many lies.

711
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:28,720
Speaker 10: About everything?

712
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:31,279
Speaker 4: I would ask him what he's doing for the economy.

713
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 2: That was a big part of his campaign promise, and

714
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 2: I don't see any difference steam files.

715
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 3: What about the Epstein files?

716
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 1: Would you want to know?

717
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 4: Why aren't they released?

718
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 9: I might ask him how much controled donors have over

719
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 9: his decisions.

720
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:49,399
Speaker 4: I'd ask him how he managed to get the hostages

721
00:37:49,440 --> 00:37:51,080
Speaker 4: out of Gaza, But ask.

722
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 11: What he thinks is the biggest threat to the United

723
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:55,799
Speaker 11: States right now?

724
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:57,719
Speaker 1: Why do you love Russia so much?

725
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 4: Are you in the Epstein as I.

726
00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:06,319
Speaker 1: Would ask if you would handle January sixth different if

727
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 1: he had the chance.

728
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:09,319
Speaker 3: To, do you really care about people and everything we're

729
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 3: going through?

730
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:13,960
Speaker 12: Will he ever learn to not attack every person that

731
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 12: disagrees with him?

732
00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:19,759
Speaker 8: Is there a way to benefit financially him and his

733
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 8: billionaire buddies without attacking the poor?

734
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 1: All right, let's see Epstein shows up once twice, three times?

735
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:38,920
Speaker 1: That's interesting? What breaks through that Epstein broke through a

736
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 1: little bit of Russia campaign donor stuff? What shocked you?

737
00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 2: So here's what I take away from this exercise. I've

738
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,799
Speaker 2: been this has been happening month over a month. So

739
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 2: I in this group, I think I mentioned six basically

740
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 2: approve of Trump's actions in office, seven disapproved.

741
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 1: It's about the ratio we're on, right, It's about that right,

742
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 1: It's like a forty five fifty five ratio, depending on

743
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 1: the all you use exactly.

744
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 2: But among the people who approve of what he is doing,

745
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 2: they still made a number of very negative comments or

746
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 2: ask negative questions when I asked them to come up

747
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 2: with a question for the president, so they could have

748
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:21,280
Speaker 2: asked questions like what makes you such an effective leader?

749
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 2: Or how did you broker such an amazing deal in

750
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 2: the Middle East? Go down all these lists of questions

751
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:29,880
Speaker 2: that would have been indicative of an appreciation.

752
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 1: And advarratious one. I mean it was one, Carolyn m

753
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 1: I'd ask him how he managed to get the hostages

754
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 1: out of Gaza. Okay, feels like a supportive type of question.

755
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:41,400
Speaker 2: That's one, But the rest of them are all basically negative.

756
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 2: And to me, what it suggests is that while they

757
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:47,800
Speaker 2: approve of his performance in office, among those who approve,

758
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 2: there are still very significant lingering doubts. And it's it's

759
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 2: almost like making a bee line to their psyche when

760
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:59,479
Speaker 2: it comes to how they feel about Trump, What question

761
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 2: would you ask skip.

762
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:07,879
Speaker 1: If I were a democratic strategy here trying to figure

763
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:09,759
Speaker 1: out how do I win over these voters. I sit

764
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 1: here and I look at these questions, and I'm sure,

765
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 1: I think I can do this with every one of

766
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:16,480
Speaker 1: your proofs, and I'd be like, oh my god. They

767
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 1: know everything I would use against him. They know he's

768
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 1: kind of in the hands of Russia, they know he's

769
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:23,279
Speaker 1: kind of in the hands of big rich people. They

770
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 1: know all these things, and they vote for him. Anyway,

771
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:29,440
Speaker 1: What would you tell a client that thought, well, these

772
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 1: people must not know these things, and it's like, oh, no,

773
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 1: they do, and they don't approve of them either, but

774
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 1: they still voted for him. What do you take away

775
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 1: from that?

776
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:46,400
Speaker 2: Well, what I take away from that is that a

777
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:51,279
Speaker 2: lot of their focus is on things that they say

778
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 2: when you ask them about it matters somewhat, but don't

779
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 2: get to the nub of what really is bothering them

780
00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 2: and what is bothering them the most right now, if

781
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:03,960
Speaker 2: I had to broadly generalize among those people who are struggling,

782
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:09,839
Speaker 2: is his performance on the economy and the idea that

783
00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:12,959
Speaker 2: he is a billionaire who promised to get inflation under

784
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 2: control and they're still struggling to make ends meet. Go

785
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:18,680
Speaker 2: back to the thing we were talking about earlier on

786
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:20,759
Speaker 2: the economy, and how that is sort of the traditional

787
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:25,880
Speaker 2: issue that regulates how people feel the economy comes up

788
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:30,080
Speaker 2: organically in the conversations, Chuck when I ask them, what.

789
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 1: Issue not the only issue that comes up organically.

790
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 3: It's not the only one.

791
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 2: Immigration comes up, mostly in an approving way, but sort

792
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:42,239
Speaker 2: of often the times I like what he's doing, I

793
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 2: don't like how he's doing it.

794
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 1: That is the theme of most of these groups. For me,

795
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:49,400
Speaker 1: that's what I always take away, and I'm always very careful.

796
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 1: I'm like, you know, what democrats don't understand is voters

797
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 1: like his goals. They don't like his execution.

798
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, they don't.

799
00:41:57,400 --> 00:42:00,800
Speaker 2: The way I try to analogize Trump, who have struggled

800
00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 2: to understand why.

801
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:04,840
Speaker 3: People like him or approve of him, I shouldn't.

802
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 1: I'm just going to say, these people don't like them,

803
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:10,400
Speaker 1: but vote for him. This is different, right, we don't

804
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 1: like them. And yet you know, it's like Aaron Sorkin wrote,

805
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,320
Speaker 1: you want me on that wall in deep dark corners

806
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 1: at the parties, you don't want to admit to your friends, right,

807
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: Like it's the Jack Nicholson monologue from a few good.

808
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 3: Men, Yeah, exactly.

809
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 2: And so the analogy I use is a little bit different,

810
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:31,360
Speaker 2: is like a medical analogy. So the reputation that surgeons have,

811
00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:33,879
Speaker 2: for example, of not being warm and fuzzy.

812
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 1: Kind of jerky. Yeah, yeah, I know it all. It's

813
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 1: god complex, et cetera.

814
00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 3: Exactly.

815
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 2: But at the end of the day, if they know

816
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 2: how to take out that infected whatever it's in your body,

817
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 2: and they do that, right, who cares if they're and

818
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 2: you know what, I just I just want to make

819
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 2: sure they can do the job that I hired them

820
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:52,879
Speaker 2: to do, which is in this case, for example, get

821
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 2: illegal aliens out of the country, or push back on

822
00:42:57,320 --> 00:43:01,680
Speaker 2: unfair trade practices from other countries. Those are the kinds

823
00:43:01,680 --> 00:43:04,160
Speaker 2: of things that they're willing to tolerate a lot of

824
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 2: his behavior in order to get the ends that they want.

825
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:09,879
Speaker 2: And so that's that's why you get this response. But

826
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:11,759
Speaker 2: but to me, you know, for a lot of the

827
00:43:11,800 --> 00:43:15,800
Speaker 2: folks I'm talking to, the vote between Trump and Harris

828
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:19,879
Speaker 2: last year, to draw another analogy out was like being

829
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:23,720
Speaker 2: a thirsty person who has to choose between drinking wheat

830
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:27,520
Speaker 2: grass juice and castor oil. You have to drink something

831
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:30,920
Speaker 2: because you're really thirsty, but whatever you choose is going

832
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:35,320
Speaker 2: to be unpleasant. It tastes like ba right blah, and afterwards,

833
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 2: having drunk it, you're going to think, I really have

834
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 2: to drink that.

835
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:39,879
Speaker 3: And that's how they feel.

836
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 2: It's not that they one was was highly preferable to

837
00:43:42,040 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 2: tell he was two unpleasant choices.

838
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 1: And and the outcome is likely to leave you in

839
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 1: the bathroom. Now, where do we take this? Going all

840
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 1: the way right now?

841
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:52,799
Speaker 3: Yeah?

842
00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, stop yeah. Let me ask one other

843
00:43:57,280 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 1: question about these groups this year, and I assume any

844
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 1: Democrats breaking through in a positive way to these voters.

845
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:07,239
Speaker 3: No.

846
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:10,160
Speaker 2: And I have to tell you if you if we

847
00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 2: were doing a little thesaurus dot com right now and

848
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 2: typed in the word contempt and ask for every synonym

849
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 2: for the word contempt, those are the adjectives these folks

850
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 2: used to describe how they feel about the Democratic Party.

851
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:27,760
Speaker 2: Not only that, to your question directly, there's no Democrat

852
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 2: on the horizon that gets them excited. They're not paying

853
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:33,960
Speaker 2: a lot of attention to the to the presidential race,

854
00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty eight, I did show them a Gavin

855
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 2: Newsom social media post mocking the president's style.

856
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:47,319
Speaker 3: They they thought it was not genuine, not that words.

857
00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:48,759
Speaker 2: They thought it was real, like he had done it,

858
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 2: but they thought he was basically taking.

859
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 1: The President's style, trying too hard.

860
00:44:54,440 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 3: It's trying too hard. But also that only Trump knows

861
00:44:56,719 --> 00:44:57,239
Speaker 3: how to do this.

862
00:44:57,320 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 2: Well, Newsom is kind of faking it by doing it,

863
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 2: by taking on the Trump style, and they saw right

864
00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 2: through it.

865
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:05,960
Speaker 1: So I think that's a great warning for people. I

866
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:09,279
Speaker 1: think the because I have some sources on the left

867
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:10,960
Speaker 1: to think, hey, I want to find my own Trump.

868
00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 1: I'm like, do you are you sure? I don't know

869
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 1: if Americans want Trump light, and I don't know if

870
00:45:16,040 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 1: they want to. Sometimes you don't want more a derivative

871
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 1: of something you maybe only wanted to have once.

872
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 2: Anyway, Well, and some would argue that Governor DeSantis found

873
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 2: that out the hard way the Republican primary.

874
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:33,800
Speaker 1: Right, No, you know it. What people want is Trump's

875
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 1: personality more than the policies. Yeah, And I think that's

876
00:45:37,719 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 1: the that's the probably the hard the hardest thing for

877
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 1: political strategist to accept in this in this current conversation.

878
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:48,040
Speaker 2: I got to tell you, Chuck, I've been at the

879
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 2: focus group business now for twenty four years. I've moderated

880
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:54,479
Speaker 2: well more than a thousand focus groups in the course

881
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 2: of my career and going back well before Trump was

882
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 2: ever a nominee ever on the politic will scene at all.

883
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:04,840
Speaker 2: I'm talking about two thousand and eight, twenty twelve whatever.

884
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:09,120
Speaker 2: I kept turing over and over again from people center right.

885
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 2: We want somebody who fights. Republicans don't fight, They give

886
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:17,000
Speaker 2: up too easily. The Democrats are constantly all over them.

887
00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:19,799
Speaker 2: The Democrats know how to fight, Republicans don't know how

888
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:23,640
Speaker 2: to fight. And Trump scratched an itch. He scratched the

889
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 2: itch of somebody who's willing to fight for them.

890
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 1: Well, now are the left that's that? Now it's the

891
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:32,120
Speaker 1: left that's complaining that Democrats don't know how to fight exactly.

892
00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:34,240
Speaker 2: That's the thing I always found hilarious is that Democrats

893
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:37,480
Speaker 2: think that Republicans fight better. Republicans think the Democrats fight better.

894
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 2: And I've heard this in groups, separate groups and over

895
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:43,000
Speaker 2: the course of years, and it's always amazed me that

896
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:45,560
Speaker 2: neither one has an appreciation for their own ability to

897
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 2: fight and an overestimation of the other side's ability to fight.

898
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 1: That's always so true. And ultimately, you know, it's whichever

899
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 1: side is presiding over a better economy is the better fighter.

900
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:59,719
Speaker 1: It's funny that it works, right, It's it's it's sometimes

901
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 1: that's does anybody else pop positively? Forget Democrats? I mean,

902
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,839
Speaker 1: when you you know, you know, is there is there

903
00:47:08,880 --> 00:47:13,319
Speaker 1: admiration for Silicon Valley or skepticism? Is there? You know?

904
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,880
Speaker 1: Is this rise in sort of you know, Steve Bannon

905
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 1: and I had a I had interviewed Bannon a few

906
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 1: months ago, and you know, so he said, you know,

907
00:47:23,680 --> 00:47:25,480
Speaker 1: I was asking him why he and Lena Kahan have

908
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:30,480
Speaker 1: something in common, and his his thesis was, well, we're

909
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:34,960
Speaker 1: both skeptical when of consolidated power. And I thought that

910
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:37,200
Speaker 1: that was a pretty fair that that is what what

911
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:40,520
Speaker 1: we ignites the Sanders voter and the Trump voter. Is that, right,

912
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:45,319
Speaker 1: a bit of skepticism of the powerful institutions. Are these

913
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:48,000
Speaker 1: voters that are they the are they the skeptics or

914
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:48,919
Speaker 1: are they something else?

915
00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:54,320
Speaker 2: I wouldn't describe them as being I mean, they're definitely skeptical,

916
00:47:54,640 --> 00:47:55,880
Speaker 2: So yes to that question.

917
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 1: No doubt that the vote against. They're not vote for us, right,

918
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:02,239
Speaker 1: they vote against there are They feel like people that

919
00:48:02,400 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 1: decided who not who they couldn't stomach as president, not

920
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:07,719
Speaker 1: necessarily voting for who they preferred.

921
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 3: Yeah.

922
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:12,759
Speaker 2: I like to describe them as serial presidential monogamous. You

923
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:15,560
Speaker 2: know about the terms, you know, serial date, serial monogamous,

924
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 2: you date one person break.

925
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 1: I was accused of that over the years. Okay, well

926
00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:24,479
Speaker 1: I never could date multiple. I never understood my friends

927
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 1: who could do that. I'm like, I don't know, I

928
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:28,000
Speaker 1: can't do it. So I was a serial monogamous.

929
00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, So these are serial presidential monogamous, meaning they dated

930
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 2: George W. Bush, they got sick of him, they chose Obama,

931
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:37,080
Speaker 2: they got sick of Obama, they chose Trump, they got

932
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 2: sick of Trump, they got they chose Biden, and then

933
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 2: they some of them were so sick of Biden they

934
00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:42,560
Speaker 2: actually went back to Trump again.

935
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:45,919
Speaker 3: Gave them a second chance. But there they are. There.

936
00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:51,719
Speaker 2: Their loyalty to any presidential candidate or president is a

937
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:54,960
Speaker 2: shallow as a as a tip of a pin.

938
00:48:55,320 --> 00:48:58,440
Speaker 1: And it sounds like they're always looking for something new, always.

939
00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:00,440
Speaker 3: That is, that's absolutely what they want. They are.

940
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:04,000
Speaker 2: They're easily dissatisfied, easily put off. And the thing that

941
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:07,320
Speaker 2: amazed me back in twenty twenty one was how quickly

942
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:09,440
Speaker 2: they bailed on Biden, you know, And I'd asked them

943
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 2: how they felt about Biden in.

944
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 1: The first three or four months.

945
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:16,440
Speaker 2: I feel, I'm feeling relief, I'm feeling proud, I'm feeling calm.

946
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:19,320
Speaker 2: And then within a few months it was like, yeah,

947
00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:22,719
Speaker 2: I mean they just one thing, obviously, it is Afghanistan,

948
00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:24,560
Speaker 2: the delta variant, and then they were done. And for

949
00:49:24,600 --> 00:49:26,399
Speaker 2: three and a half years he could not win them back,

950
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:29,960
Speaker 2: so they were merciless toward him. Some could argue that

951
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:33,440
Speaker 2: that was basically an unforced error on Biden's part, but

952
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:34,839
Speaker 2: these folks did never went back.

953
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 3: This year very different. Every month.

954
00:49:37,280 --> 00:49:39,799
Speaker 2: The number of people who are approving or disapproving of

955
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:43,439
Speaker 2: Trump is fluctuating endlessly, and there's no consistency from month

956
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 2: to month. And I'll have some higher levels of approval

957
00:49:46,080 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 2: one month, lower levels the next. There's no seeming pattern

958
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:52,440
Speaker 2: in terms of what direction it's going. I can tell

959
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:55,880
Speaker 2: you roughly, since February, just under sixty percent say they

960
00:49:55,920 --> 00:49:59,080
Speaker 2: still approve of the job he's doing. But that's again

961
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:03,400
Speaker 2: February's responds versus aprils versus July versus now, So you

962
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:05,319
Speaker 2: know it's the timing.

963
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:06,560
Speaker 3: When I asked it. I didn't ask all of.

964
00:50:06,480 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 1: Them, just in the laste anything consistent about the people

965
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 1: in his orbit. Kennedy, Vance Rubio, and Haig Seth are

966
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:20,439
Speaker 1: arguably the most prominent members in Trump's orbit. Christy Nome,

967
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:23,319
Speaker 1: maybe Stephen Miller. Do any of these folks pop in

968
00:50:23,360 --> 00:50:23,880
Speaker 1: these groups?

969
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:27,560
Speaker 2: Most of these folks are not familiar with most of

970
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:31,400
Speaker 2: these people I asked. I've asked about Robert Kennedy Junior

971
00:50:31,440 --> 00:50:35,520
Speaker 2: a couple of times, and healthcare policy. They were split

972
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:39,080
Speaker 2: between approve of Kennedy, disapprove of Kennedy, don't know what

973
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:43,319
Speaker 2: he's doing, so it was kind of shallow For those

974
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:46,759
Speaker 2: who do support. They want to see America be healthier again,

975
00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:50,319
Speaker 2: so the MAHA theme is important to them, but they

976
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:52,880
Speaker 2: get very sketchy when you start talking about making it

977
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:57,200
Speaker 2: harder to get vaccinations and those types of things. They're

978
00:50:57,320 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 2: willing to go along, but just not as far as

979
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 2: Trump is going.

980
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:04,880
Speaker 1: So if I were watching these focus groups and I

981
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:07,759
Speaker 1: wanted to help Bill McRaven become president, and when the

982
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:12,719
Speaker 1: presidency is an independent, what would I what what what?

983
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:14,920
Speaker 1: What would my advance? What would your advice be to

984
00:51:14,960 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 1: a I say Bill McRaven, because he's my avatar of

985
00:51:18,239 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 1: what a what a potential you know sort of uh,

986
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 1: you know, mythical independent figure that that might be able

987
00:51:24,719 --> 00:51:27,720
Speaker 1: to break through. I think somebody with a military background. YadA, YadA, YadA.

988
00:51:27,719 --> 00:51:29,680
Speaker 1: That's my thesis. Whether it's true or not, it's a

989
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:33,160
Speaker 1: whole nother story. But if you were thinking about trying

990
00:51:33,160 --> 00:51:35,600
Speaker 1: to run outside the two party system right now, because

991
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:40,320
Speaker 1: there's such deep sort of distrust of is there something

992
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 1: to glean from these voters or are they are they are?

993
00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:49,480
Speaker 1: They just not gonna They're just not gonna be They're

994
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 1: just going to keep picking between the two parties.

995
00:51:52,680 --> 00:51:53,560
Speaker 3: That's a great question.

996
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:56,719
Speaker 2: I'm not sure necessarily that they are rushing to have

997
00:51:56,760 --> 00:52:01,880
Speaker 2: a third party alternative. When I asked about no labels

998
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:03,440
Speaker 2: a couple of years ago, when that was still part

999
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:07,080
Speaker 2: of the conversation, there was a hesitation there to get

1000
00:52:07,120 --> 00:52:09,120
Speaker 2: involved in those kinds of things, thinking that you'd be

1001
00:52:09,160 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 2: tossing the vote away. But for me, I think they

1002
00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:18,280
Speaker 2: what I would encourage people who want to break through

1003
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 2: center independent like you're describing left or right is I

1004
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:25,080
Speaker 2: would try to be raising some issues that I know

1005
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:27,640
Speaker 2: matter to people that are not part of the conversation

1006
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:33,040
Speaker 2: right now. So, for example, when I asked about Biden's age,

1007
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 2: people would tell me, and I asked two questions, what

1008
00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:40,319
Speaker 2: is the ideal age for someone to be president and

1009
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:43,400
Speaker 2: what's the oldest acceptable age for someone to be president?

1010
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:46,560
Speaker 2: The ideal age was basically early the mid fifties. The

1011
00:52:46,600 --> 00:52:50,160
Speaker 2: oldest acceptable age was in the mid sixties on average.

1012
00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:50,799
Speaker 3: When I asked that, I.

1013
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:53,160
Speaker 2: Rarely do I get an age above seventy as being

1014
00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 2: oldest acceptable. We now have a president who's almost eighty

1015
00:52:56,080 --> 00:52:58,040
Speaker 2: years old. We just had one who ended at eighty two.

1016
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:01,839
Speaker 2: I would be taught talking about things like setting age

1017
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 2: limits for presidents as part of a constitutional amendment. I

1018
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:10,360
Speaker 2: think that would be an important thing to do.

1019
00:53:10,600 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 1: You can break through with these with with you that

1020
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 1: actually might connect with voters, I think.

1021
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 3: After having process.

1022
00:53:16,640 --> 00:53:19,759
Speaker 1: I asked that skeptically, because as much as ires a

1023
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:22,319
Speaker 1: lot of process things I'd like to fix about our democracy,

1024
00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:26,960
Speaker 1: it's hard to get mass interest in some of these things.

1025
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 2: I would say generally yes in the and in the

1026
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 2: absence of having very old presidents for what for us

1027
00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:37,879
Speaker 2: could easily be twelve years of presidents over the age

1028
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:40,520
Speaker 2: of seventy five, seventy or seventy five.

1029
00:53:40,560 --> 00:53:41,239
Speaker 3: It's remarkable.

1030
00:53:41,239 --> 00:53:43,200
Speaker 2: I think in that context people might be you know,

1031
00:53:43,239 --> 00:53:47,239
Speaker 2: what I'm done, and I think and the other thing

1032
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 2: I would say is, and again I'm going to ask this.

1033
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:52,160
Speaker 2: I haven't de gone that deep into it yet, but

1034
00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:55,319
Speaker 2: I plan to. Is the whole issue of pardons and

1035
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:59,120
Speaker 2: having the president have unfettered pardoning power. I can tell

1036
00:53:59,160 --> 00:54:01,680
Speaker 2: you that the pardons from Biden as he left office

1037
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 2: and the part that Trumps has given people since he

1038
00:54:05,120 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 2: took office have enraged a number of these swing voters.

1039
00:54:08,760 --> 00:54:12,200
Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting. Corruption is always when you look

1040
00:54:12,239 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 1: at big swings that we've had in midterm elections in particular,

1041
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:19,919
Speaker 1: corruption has actually always been one of the through lines.

1042
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 1: There's like been an economy and you know, because it's

1043
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:24,240
Speaker 1: a way to Hey, they're so worried about their friends.

1044
00:54:24,320 --> 00:54:26,719
Speaker 1: They're not focused on your bottom line. They're so worried

1045
00:54:26,719 --> 00:54:30,040
Speaker 1: about this, right, there's this you know, you so a

1046
00:54:30,120 --> 00:54:32,640
Speaker 1: through line of to me, if you're going to have

1047
00:54:32,680 --> 00:54:35,839
Speaker 1: a successful midterm, if you're the out party, you need

1048
00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:40,440
Speaker 1: a little bit of corruption messaging against the party in

1049
00:54:40,480 --> 00:54:43,520
Speaker 1: power in order to have some success. But I've had

1050
00:54:43,560 --> 00:54:46,920
Speaker 1: this thesis that the reason it doesn't work against Trump

1051
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:51,480
Speaker 1: is these voters already think the whole system is corrupt. Yeah,

1052
00:54:51,520 --> 00:54:56,760
Speaker 1: he's corrupt, but the entire systems corrupt. Every president does

1053
00:54:57,200 --> 00:55:00,680
Speaker 1: is a little bit corrupt, So they don't have the

1054
00:55:00,719 --> 00:55:06,080
Speaker 1: same gag reflects maybe that some of us do watching

1055
00:55:06,080 --> 00:55:06,840
Speaker 1: what Trump does.

1056
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just wonder whether at the end of a

1057
00:55:11,120 --> 00:55:16,200
Speaker 2: second Trump term, folks who constantly tell me how mistrustful

1058
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:19,919
Speaker 2: they are of politicians exactly as you just described, whether

1059
00:55:19,960 --> 00:55:24,600
Speaker 2: at some point something happens where they say, you know what, this,

1060
00:55:24,800 --> 00:55:26,839
Speaker 2: what we've just had in the last twelve years has

1061
00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:30,880
Speaker 2: not worked for us, and they react to it viscerally

1062
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:34,120
Speaker 2: to the point where someone who's able to make this

1063
00:55:34,239 --> 00:55:37,000
Speaker 2: case is able to make it meaningfully and wants to

1064
00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:39,280
Speaker 2: actually put it at the top of the national agenda.

1065
00:55:39,480 --> 00:55:42,719
Speaker 2: I don't again, to me, this is going We need

1066
00:55:42,760 --> 00:55:44,160
Speaker 2: to see the polling on it. We have to see

1067
00:55:44,200 --> 00:55:46,160
Speaker 2: after the polling shifts and moves more in this direction

1068
00:55:46,239 --> 00:55:48,680
Speaker 2: of the course of Trump's second term. But to me,

1069
00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:53,719
Speaker 2: I'm getting a sense that if what Trump has promised

1070
00:55:54,080 --> 00:55:57,080
Speaker 2: doesn't come to pass for the people who voted for him,

1071
00:55:57,360 --> 00:56:00,480
Speaker 2: and that what Biden promised didn't come to ask for

1072
00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:02,600
Speaker 2: them when they voted for him and saw what happened

1073
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:05,520
Speaker 2: in his four years. Does that create an opening for

1074
00:56:05,600 --> 00:56:10,319
Speaker 2: your independent candidate or some reform minded R or D

1075
00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 2: to say, you know what, it's time for a generational shift.

1076
00:56:13,640 --> 00:56:14,839
Speaker 3: I mean, you know what's going to happen.

1077
00:56:14,880 --> 00:56:16,680
Speaker 2: We're not going to have We're not going to elect

1078
00:56:16,719 --> 00:56:19,720
Speaker 2: another eighty year old president in twenty eight.

1079
00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:23,480
Speaker 1: We may elect our youngest president ever type of mindset.

1080
00:56:23,560 --> 00:56:26,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have our first millennial president. We'll skip over

1081
00:56:26,080 --> 00:56:29,879
Speaker 2: gen X altogether. Right, let's start it on that. I know, yeah,

1082
00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:31,719
Speaker 2: but that's rude, Jenny.

1083
00:56:32,120 --> 00:56:32,960
Speaker 3: But that's but the thing.

1084
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:35,200
Speaker 2: But I guess the point is with that comes the

1085
00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:38,759
Speaker 2: opportunity to make changes and the other thing we're overdue

1086
00:56:38,760 --> 00:56:41,239
Speaker 2: for if you really know, I just haven't started yet.

1087
00:56:41,280 --> 00:56:44,880
Speaker 2: Joel Lapor's new book on the Constitution is that you know,

1088
00:56:45,000 --> 00:56:47,560
Speaker 2: you know, constitutional changes happen in spurts.

1089
00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:50,000
Speaker 3: They they're clustered together.

1090
00:56:50,080 --> 00:56:52,200
Speaker 2: There are a few short periods of time where you

1091
00:56:52,200 --> 00:56:54,520
Speaker 2: get three or four amendments all at once, and we

1092
00:56:54,560 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 2: haven't had one of these in a very long time.

1093
00:57:03,200 --> 00:57:05,800
Speaker 1: And in fact, I mean this is sort of my people.

1094
00:57:06,000 --> 00:57:07,919
Speaker 1: You know, people ask me, I'm always say I'm short

1095
00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:11,520
Speaker 1: term pessimistic, long term optimistic. And this is the reason

1096
00:57:11,840 --> 00:57:15,080
Speaker 1: if you I think we're loosely in the in you know,

1097
00:57:15,160 --> 00:57:18,320
Speaker 1: in the in the repeat, you know, sort of repeating

1098
00:57:18,360 --> 00:57:22,800
Speaker 1: the early twentieth century. And you know, our response to

1099
00:57:23,000 --> 00:57:27,840
Speaker 1: consolidated power, big business, robber barons getting too close with

1100
00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:31,880
Speaker 1: government was women's suffrage, giving women the right to vote,

1101
00:57:31,880 --> 00:57:35,200
Speaker 1: direct election of senators, and the income tax. All of

1102
00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:39,080
Speaker 1: that was designed essentially to start to tackle this sort

1103
00:57:39,120 --> 00:57:43,120
Speaker 1: of you know, industrial barons that were sort of dominating

1104
00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:47,080
Speaker 1: our lives then. And arguably it's the last time we

1105
00:57:47,120 --> 00:57:50,800
Speaker 1: really did a lot of constitutional maintenance, right. Yeah, we

1106
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:53,400
Speaker 1: did the twenty second Amendment, you know, after FDR, and

1107
00:57:53,840 --> 00:57:57,000
Speaker 1: we gave we lowered the voting aged eighteen, but those

1108
00:57:57,040 --> 00:58:00,600
Speaker 1: weren't sort of societal ills type of thing, right versus that,

1109
00:58:00,920 --> 00:58:03,240
Speaker 1: I mean, you're right, we basically we've only really had

1110
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:06,960
Speaker 1: three big periods of amending the constitution. This the beginning

1111
00:58:07,120 --> 00:58:10,240
Speaker 1: the Civil War and essentially right before the New Deal.

1112
00:58:10,840 --> 00:58:16,200
Speaker 7: Yeah, and I think if the frustrations that people are

1113
00:58:16,240 --> 00:58:20,400
Speaker 7: feeling need an outlet, and we can identify the things

1114
00:58:20,400 --> 00:58:23,120
Speaker 7: that are most angering and frustrating people that we could

1115
00:58:23,120 --> 00:58:25,080
Speaker 7: easily see another one of those periods coming up.

1116
00:58:25,640 --> 00:58:28,000
Speaker 1: And you know, it's funny it, you know, we may

1117
00:58:28,000 --> 00:58:29,680
Speaker 1: be stumbling upon it. It's like if you're going to

1118
00:58:29,760 --> 00:58:32,320
Speaker 1: try to run outside the system, right, if you're going

1119
00:58:32,360 --> 00:58:34,720
Speaker 1: to run against both parties in some form, right, and

1120
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:36,440
Speaker 1: you may do it within one of the two parties,

1121
00:58:36,960 --> 00:58:40,240
Speaker 1: or you run as a third party independent calling for

1122
00:58:40,280 --> 00:58:43,600
Speaker 1: this constitutional convention so that we can you know, keep

1123
00:58:43,640 --> 00:58:45,520
Speaker 1: seventy year olds out of the White House, and you

1124
00:58:45,560 --> 00:58:49,360
Speaker 1: know do campaign you know, you know, put campaign finance

1125
00:58:49,440 --> 00:58:54,920
Speaker 1: guardrails in here. Maybe undoe presidential pardons. Create a pardon board, right,

1126
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:57,960
Speaker 1: so that there isn't you know, essentially we've decided it

1127
00:58:58,000 --> 00:59:01,760
Speaker 1: turns out that the founders were on this one presidential

1128
00:59:01,760 --> 00:59:03,840
Speaker 1: pardon was a mistake, and here's a better way to

1129
00:59:03,920 --> 00:59:06,919
Speaker 1: do it. And you create almost a pardon board where

1130
00:59:06,960 --> 00:59:09,840
Speaker 1: you still allow for executive pardons, but they actually have

1131
00:59:09,880 --> 00:59:12,360
Speaker 1: to pass through a committee. It isn't just a singular person,

1132
00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:16,840
Speaker 1: which many states do. By the way, where we've especially

1133
00:59:16,840 --> 00:59:20,240
Speaker 1: where there have been scandals. There's a famous Fred Thompson

1134
00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:23,680
Speaker 1: became an actor because of a pardon scandal in the

1135
00:59:23,680 --> 00:59:26,960
Speaker 1: state of Tennessee in the seventies. They couldn't find the

1136
00:59:27,000 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 1: guy to play Fred Thompson, so they asked Fred Thompson

1137
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:31,800
Speaker 1: to play himself, and his acting career took off from there.

1138
00:59:31,800 --> 00:59:35,440
Speaker 1: It's one of my favorite little little pieces of Hollywood

1139
00:59:35,440 --> 00:59:40,200
Speaker 1: political trivia. But boy, you know, talking with you on

1140
00:59:40,240 --> 00:59:45,320
Speaker 1: this reform and corruption, you know you still got to

1141
00:59:45,360 --> 00:59:47,480
Speaker 1: talk about the economy, but you might be able to

1142
00:59:47,480 --> 00:59:50,040
Speaker 1: break through a little bit with reforming and corruption. It

1143
00:59:50,080 --> 00:59:51,640
Speaker 1: sounds like at least that's what you're thinking.

1144
00:59:51,880 --> 00:59:54,560
Speaker 2: I'm thinking that and also tying the two together. Right,

1145
00:59:54,640 --> 00:59:57,760
Speaker 2: why are people struggling? It's because these vested interests are

1146
00:59:57,760 --> 01:00:00,520
Speaker 2: holding you back. They're charging you too much, They're making

1147
01:00:00,560 --> 01:00:02,800
Speaker 2: your life miserable in terms of customer service.

1148
01:00:02,840 --> 01:00:04,960
Speaker 3: I mean, we haven't Chuck, Chuck, We've talked for an

1149
01:00:04,960 --> 01:00:07,080
Speaker 3: hour now, we still have having talked about AI, right,

1150
01:00:07,160 --> 01:00:07,560
Speaker 3: And so.

1151
01:00:07,400 --> 01:00:11,160
Speaker 1: It's so funny. I'm this is and maybe I'm going

1152
01:00:11,240 --> 01:00:13,040
Speaker 1: to give you a few ideas, or maybe you've already

1153
01:00:13,080 --> 01:00:15,520
Speaker 1: done this. So one of my favorite when I have

1154
01:00:15,560 --> 01:00:19,000
Speaker 1: an audience. I'll you know, when I start talking about

1155
01:00:19,040 --> 01:00:21,160
Speaker 1: people will ask a question about AI. I'll quickly ask is.

1156
01:00:21,400 --> 01:00:24,160
Speaker 1: I'll say, how many of you would pay extra to

1157
01:00:24,200 --> 01:00:28,280
Speaker 1: have a human handle customer service? And literally two thirds

1158
01:00:28,320 --> 01:00:29,920
Speaker 1: of the room. Well, I've done this now for the

1159
01:00:30,000 --> 01:00:32,720
Speaker 1: last few months, and there's always a majority of the

1160
01:00:32,760 --> 01:00:36,000
Speaker 1: room raises their hand. That a willingness to pay extra

1161
01:00:36,120 --> 01:00:40,240
Speaker 1: for a human being? It actually is. I am weirdly

1162
01:00:40,280 --> 01:00:44,080
Speaker 1: optimistic about the AI effication of the Internet because it

1163
01:00:44,120 --> 01:00:46,760
Speaker 1: may be the thing that gets us outside of our screens.

1164
01:00:47,520 --> 01:00:52,440
Speaker 1: The more online is artificial, the more we're going to

1165
01:00:52,520 --> 01:00:55,680
Speaker 1: crave humanity. We already are craving it in the customer

1166
01:00:55,720 --> 01:00:59,080
Speaker 1: service by my anecdotal you know, And I imagine if

1167
01:00:59,120 --> 01:01:01,480
Speaker 1: you started to ask and all your focus scripts, I

1168
01:01:01,480 --> 01:01:05,120
Speaker 1: imagine you get the same response. We hate some computer

1169
01:01:05,280 --> 01:01:08,160
Speaker 1: or robot thinking they know what we're talking about, right

1170
01:01:08,320 --> 01:01:11,120
Speaker 1: like it just it just drives us nuts, even if

1171
01:01:11,120 --> 01:01:14,040
Speaker 1: the robot might have the better answer, right it just

1172
01:01:14,320 --> 01:01:18,800
Speaker 1: we're human beings. So no, I'm convinced that you can't

1173
01:01:18,840 --> 01:01:21,080
Speaker 1: run for president in twenty eight without an answer to

1174
01:01:21,320 --> 01:01:23,320
Speaker 1: the fear of AI displacement.

1175
01:01:23,880 --> 01:01:26,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I read your recent post about this. I thought

1176
01:01:26,560 --> 01:01:28,840
Speaker 2: it was brilliant in terms of how it's getting politicized.

1177
01:01:29,360 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 2: The analysis was absolutely spot on. Anybody who hasn't read it,

1178
01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:34,480
Speaker 2: I would ask you to post it with your show

1179
01:01:34,520 --> 01:01:37,640
Speaker 2: notes here because I think it's a great piece, really important,

1180
01:01:38,080 --> 01:01:41,400
Speaker 2: and I think whichever party figures this out first is

1181
01:01:41,440 --> 01:01:43,200
Speaker 2: going to have a huge advantage.

1182
01:01:42,800 --> 01:01:43,560
Speaker 3: Because the frustration.

1183
01:01:43,600 --> 01:01:45,200
Speaker 2: And I gotta tell you, Chuck, I asked Swing voters

1184
01:01:45,200 --> 01:01:47,760
Speaker 2: about AI couple months ago. Yeah, and the thing that

1185
01:01:47,840 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 2: came up was the loss of humanity exactly.

1186
01:01:50,520 --> 01:01:52,640
Speaker 3: You're that's the biggest thing that scares.

1187
01:01:52,240 --> 01:01:57,640
Speaker 1: Them it which again, that to me is gives me

1188
01:01:57,680 --> 01:02:02,240
Speaker 1: hope because we're going to crave in person. I think

1189
01:02:02,280 --> 01:02:04,800
Speaker 1: it's going to put a premium on in person. Again,

1190
01:02:05,160 --> 01:02:09,080
Speaker 1: it's going to put a premium on seeing things for yourself.

1191
01:02:10,800 --> 01:02:12,800
Speaker 1: In fact, I almost wondering, are we going to have

1192
01:02:12,880 --> 01:02:17,040
Speaker 1: retail stores back where you don't necessarily buy the product there,

1193
01:02:17,080 --> 01:02:18,960
Speaker 1: but you want to see and touch the product before

1194
01:02:18,960 --> 01:02:22,320
Speaker 1: you order it online and have it delivered to your house. Yeah.

1195
01:02:22,400 --> 01:02:25,920
Speaker 2: Well, you're seeing this touch grass movement right, people sing,

1196
01:02:25,920 --> 01:02:28,640
Speaker 2: getting kids out and outdoors and touching the grass because

1197
01:02:28,720 --> 01:02:31,000
Speaker 2: touching their screens isn't real. Yeah, there's a lot of

1198
01:02:31,000 --> 01:02:32,880
Speaker 2: this stuff going on. I just to me, the question

1199
01:02:32,960 --> 01:02:36,800
Speaker 2: is does how far is it AI able to penetrate

1200
01:02:36,880 --> 01:02:39,960
Speaker 2: the population because it's so useful to the people that

1201
01:02:40,000 --> 01:02:42,960
Speaker 2: they give up some of these more tangible things in reality,

1202
01:02:43,040 --> 01:02:44,880
Speaker 2: and that time will tell how.

1203
01:02:44,760 --> 01:02:46,480
Speaker 1: That plays out. All right, let me get you out

1204
01:02:46,480 --> 01:02:49,720
Speaker 1: of here on this. One of my One of the

1205
01:02:49,720 --> 01:02:54,080
Speaker 1: things I lament is the loss of regionalism, meaning the

1206
01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:57,160
Speaker 1: suburb of Grand Rapids is no different than a suburb

1207
01:02:57,200 --> 01:03:01,720
Speaker 1: of Roanoke. Right. You know, people in Atlanta have more

1208
01:03:01,720 --> 01:03:04,320
Speaker 1: in common with people in Milwaukee than people in Atlanta have,

1209
01:03:04,440 --> 01:03:07,280
Speaker 1: and north with people in Northwest Georgia et cetera, et cetera.

1210
01:03:07,360 --> 01:03:11,640
Speaker 1: Did world Wisconsin versus Milwaukee, et cetera. You are the

1211
01:03:11,680 --> 01:03:14,720
Speaker 1: seven swing states, you have the three Midwesterns, you have

1212
01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:20,240
Speaker 1: the two Western and you have the essentially the two

1213
01:03:20,360 --> 01:03:25,200
Speaker 1: sun Belt Any regionalism, you're just there anymore? Or are

1214
01:03:25,240 --> 01:03:32,320
Speaker 1: all these voters in somewhat you know, homogenized American suburbanites.

1215
01:03:33,720 --> 01:03:40,800
Speaker 2: Uh, They're mostly homogenized with odd flavors that will come

1216
01:03:40,840 --> 01:03:45,680
Speaker 2: out at odd moments. So with Arizona swing voters, you'll

1217
01:03:45,720 --> 01:03:48,880
Speaker 2: still get a little bit of the Barry gold Water Ish.

1218
01:03:51,000 --> 01:03:53,600
Speaker 1: Arizona's got a little libertarian, a little more libertarian in

1219
01:03:53,680 --> 01:03:55,680
Speaker 1: them than most of the other states.

1220
01:03:55,440 --> 01:03:58,880
Speaker 3: Right, Yes, so you have more more of that with

1221
01:03:58,960 --> 01:03:59,920
Speaker 3: the Pennsylvanians. Part.

1222
01:04:00,320 --> 01:04:04,680
Speaker 2: The southeastern Pennsylvanian is just a very low level of

1223
01:04:04,720 --> 01:04:07,320
Speaker 2: trust and belief in anything that anyone says.

1224
01:04:07,760 --> 01:04:08,080
Speaker 1: Wow.

1225
01:04:08,200 --> 01:04:10,920
Speaker 2: I found that over the years. In this region. It's

1226
01:04:10,960 --> 01:04:14,800
Speaker 2: super super skeptical. I mean even more so. And I

1227
01:04:14,880 --> 01:04:18,240
Speaker 2: just think the Upper Midwest folks, particularly, you know, the

1228
01:04:18,760 --> 01:04:22,400
Speaker 2: michigan the Michiganders, there's just more of a salt of

1229
01:04:22,440 --> 01:04:26,200
Speaker 2: the earth type of conversation with them. They just we

1230
01:04:26,240 --> 01:04:29,480
Speaker 2: can just well, they were not happy with Trump in

1231
01:04:29,560 --> 01:04:31,800
Speaker 2: March when I spoke to them about trade.

1232
01:04:31,840 --> 01:04:33,120
Speaker 3: Boy, I was shocked.

1233
01:04:33,160 --> 01:04:36,280
Speaker 2: At seven weeks into his administration, they were excoriating him

1234
01:04:36,280 --> 01:04:36,920
Speaker 2: on that topic.

1235
01:04:37,520 --> 01:04:40,959
Speaker 1: But Michigan of all places, right, which when we were

1236
01:04:41,080 --> 01:04:44,360
Speaker 1: professionally growing up, you'd have thought, well, one state's gonna

1237
01:04:44,360 --> 01:04:44,920
Speaker 1: like tariffs.

1238
01:04:44,920 --> 01:04:48,680
Speaker 2: It's FISHI can yeah, But I went back there and

1239
01:04:48,720 --> 01:04:51,480
Speaker 2: we did those in September and twelve out and thirteen

1240
01:04:51,480 --> 01:04:54,320
Speaker 2: approved of the job he was doing. So you know, again,

1241
01:04:54,400 --> 01:04:57,000
Speaker 2: it's it's this odd shift. There's no consistency month to month.

1242
01:04:57,160 --> 01:04:59,800
Speaker 2: But to answer your question about geography, yeah, it just

1243
01:05:00,080 --> 01:05:02,520
Speaker 2: you get it's the flavoring that's just a little bits

1244
01:05:02,560 --> 01:05:05,200
Speaker 2: the seasoning. It's like pizza tastes different in different parts

1245
01:05:05,240 --> 01:05:07,960
Speaker 2: of the country, but it's still basically pizza wherever you go,

1246
01:05:08,720 --> 01:05:09,960
Speaker 2: and that's kind of the difference.

1247
01:05:10,840 --> 01:05:13,440
Speaker 1: Rich, I am such a geek for this stuff. I

1248
01:05:13,440 --> 01:05:17,880
Speaker 1: could keep going. This is terrific. I where could I know?

1249
01:05:17,920 --> 01:05:20,400
Speaker 1: You have a YouTube channel? Tell people where they can

1250
01:05:20,440 --> 01:05:23,400
Speaker 1: find these because you do. You do put up monthly reports.

1251
01:05:23,720 --> 01:05:24,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, thank you.

1252
01:05:24,440 --> 01:05:27,320
Speaker 2: So the easiest place to find us is at Swing

1253
01:05:27,680 --> 01:05:31,440
Speaker 2: Voter Project dot com. On that page you will find

1254
01:05:31,480 --> 01:05:34,760
Speaker 2: each month's highlight and that reel is on YouTube, so

1255
01:05:34,760 --> 01:05:37,640
Speaker 2: if you click it, it'll just play within YouTube, and

1256
01:05:38,000 --> 01:05:40,040
Speaker 2: I would encourage you to just watch those videos. And

1257
01:05:40,080 --> 01:05:42,400
Speaker 2: you can also sign up for a monthly update on

1258
01:05:42,480 --> 01:05:46,320
Speaker 2: the Swing Voter Project dot com page. So just go there,

1259
01:05:46,440 --> 01:05:49,160
Speaker 2: give us your email address. We will not sell you anything,

1260
01:05:49,240 --> 01:05:51,600
Speaker 2: there's nothing for sale. We don't charge for this stuff,

1261
01:05:52,400 --> 01:05:55,520
Speaker 2: and just join us on Swing Voter Project dot com.

1262
01:05:55,720 --> 01:05:56,960
Speaker 1: I'm telling you a whole bunch of them are going

1263
01:05:57,040 --> 01:05:58,760
Speaker 1: to be like kick I want one hundred and twenty

1264
01:05:58,800 --> 01:06:00,000
Speaker 1: five bucks to give you my opinion.

1265
01:06:00,720 --> 01:06:02,920
Speaker 2: They probably not swing voters though, but if they are,

1266
01:06:03,200 --> 01:06:05,240
Speaker 2: you know, they can go to Sego by way, go

1267
01:06:05,280 --> 01:06:08,640
Speaker 2: to sago dot com if you want to register to

1268
01:06:08,640 --> 01:06:09,800
Speaker 2: participate in focus groups.

1269
01:06:09,880 --> 01:06:13,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh well that's nice. Do you do you still

1270
01:06:13,440 --> 01:06:19,800
Speaker 1: do uh, quantitative polling as much? And you know how

1271
01:06:19,880 --> 01:06:22,720
Speaker 1: much does the focus group influence your questionnaire? Now? Yeah,

1272
01:06:22,760 --> 01:06:24,280
Speaker 1: I do. I really I don't.

1273
01:06:24,320 --> 01:06:25,640
Speaker 3: Personally don't do a huge amount of it.

1274
01:06:25,680 --> 01:06:28,800
Speaker 2: I'm actually associated with a remarkable company called Alpha Rock.

1275
01:06:29,120 --> 01:06:31,600
Speaker 2: Do you and I could talk about offline that has

1276
01:06:31,960 --> 01:06:36,520
Speaker 2: transforming the polling process and looking at longitudinality in questions

1277
01:06:36,640 --> 01:06:39,680
Speaker 2: in a way that point of time polling doesn't quick

1278
01:06:39,760 --> 01:06:43,440
Speaker 2: turnaround in polling. They have a tool called Ockham Ockham's

1279
01:06:43,480 --> 01:06:46,960
Speaker 2: Razor that is just remarkable that a lot of trade

1280
01:06:46,960 --> 01:06:49,640
Speaker 2: associations and others in DC are using. So I've been

1281
01:06:49,680 --> 01:06:51,920
Speaker 2: working with them to try to get some quant around

1282
01:06:52,040 --> 01:06:56,360
Speaker 2: some of my focus grouping. But basically, uh, that world

1283
01:06:56,480 --> 01:06:59,560
Speaker 2: is getting up ended in a way that is well,

1284
01:07:00,480 --> 01:07:02,000
Speaker 2: deeply needed and well deserved.

1285
01:07:03,320 --> 01:07:05,920
Speaker 1: I feel like the best of you know, like my

1286
01:07:06,040 --> 01:07:08,400
Speaker 1: favorite thing that our polsters at NBC when I was

1287
01:07:08,480 --> 01:07:10,680
Speaker 1: working with them, used to do was I loved a

1288
01:07:10,760 --> 01:07:14,040
Speaker 1: good open end right where because to me, what that

1289
01:07:14,640 --> 01:07:17,720
Speaker 1: was was about helping you formulate a better question down

1290
01:07:17,760 --> 01:07:20,840
Speaker 1: the road. Absolutely, and that and that to me is

1291
01:07:21,080 --> 01:07:25,479
Speaker 1: you know I've we've for for for years, would would

1292
01:07:25,760 --> 01:07:28,680
Speaker 1: would reword questions based on stuff we'd see in focus

1293
01:07:28,800 --> 01:07:29,520
Speaker 1: groups like yours.

1294
01:07:29,880 --> 01:07:32,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, the thing's happening now you're alluded to at

1295
01:07:32,080 --> 01:07:34,640
Speaker 2: the very beginning so well and where we started, which

1296
01:07:34,760 --> 01:07:37,480
Speaker 2: is that this OUPHAM tool is able to do quaal

1297
01:07:37,720 --> 01:07:38,440
Speaker 2: at scale.

1298
01:07:39,040 --> 01:07:40,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, and so they.

1299
01:07:40,520 --> 01:07:42,880
Speaker 2: Able to do basically one on one interviews not yet

1300
01:07:42,920 --> 01:07:45,400
Speaker 2: in a focus group, and one on ones an AI

1301
01:07:45,680 --> 01:07:46,440
Speaker 2: by yourself.

1302
01:07:46,920 --> 01:07:50,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, well I thought about it, but the I

1303
01:07:50,240 --> 01:07:51,440
Speaker 1: know somebody who's trying it.

1304
01:07:52,080 --> 01:07:53,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, it's I think it's an important thing to

1305
01:07:54,000 --> 01:07:56,040
Speaker 2: try to do because there if you can do this

1306
01:07:56,160 --> 01:07:58,480
Speaker 2: at scale, the insights will be so much richer than

1307
01:07:58,520 --> 01:08:00,640
Speaker 2: what I can find obviously, which all people.

1308
01:08:00,800 --> 01:08:03,640
Speaker 1: So much, so much more a thousand that are focus

1309
01:08:03,680 --> 01:08:06,680
Speaker 1: grouped rather than just you know, multiple choice.

1310
01:08:07,240 --> 01:08:10,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's remarkable and also be able to interpret the answers,

1311
01:08:10,320 --> 01:08:14,840
Speaker 2: ask meaningful follow ups, categorize the answers, which is what

1312
01:08:14,920 --> 01:08:15,560
Speaker 2: this tool can do.

1313
01:08:16,240 --> 01:08:18,400
Speaker 3: So this whole world is getting up ended.

1314
01:08:18,960 --> 01:08:20,920
Speaker 2: I've been joking that I'll be replaced by a bot,

1315
01:08:20,960 --> 01:08:23,400
Speaker 2: and my respondents will be replaced by bots, and it'll

1316
01:08:23,439 --> 01:08:26,240
Speaker 2: be one AI asking other AI questions and kicking out

1317
01:08:26,240 --> 01:08:27,360
Speaker 2: a report in ten seconds.

1318
01:08:27,400 --> 01:08:30,439
Speaker 1: And that's going to mean you know what you're gonna

1319
01:08:30,479 --> 01:08:34,760
Speaker 1: end up doing, create bullshit correct, and then you're going

1320
01:08:34,840 --> 01:08:37,479
Speaker 1: to be going to an actual event in order to

1321
01:08:37,560 --> 01:08:40,519
Speaker 1: talk to actual people again. Like we're probably about five

1322
01:08:40,600 --> 01:08:43,400
Speaker 1: years away from that. Let's go back to shopping malls

1323
01:08:43,439 --> 01:08:46,240
Speaker 1: and survey people that way, right, like in person with

1324
01:08:46,320 --> 01:08:49,160
Speaker 1: the clipboard. Everything old will be new again if we're not,

1325
01:08:49,320 --> 01:08:53,280
Speaker 1: if we ai ai it up too much, that's right, exactly, Rich.

1326
01:08:53,560 --> 01:08:56,000
Speaker 1: This was fantastic. Thank you, my friend, Thank you chucking

1327
01:08:56,080 --> 01:08:56,680
Speaker 1: honor to do it.