1 00:00:01,520 --> 00:00:04,559 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts. 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:21,079 Speaker 2: people over for a second. 4 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:32,200 Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by Fandel I'm 5 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:37,199 Speaker 1: your host Brendan Glasheen. Today UFC Betting Preview UFC two 6 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 1: to eighty eight going down from the Prudential Center in Newark, 7 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 1: New Jersey. Joined by Billy Ward, former MMA fighter, one 8 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:46,599 Speaker 1: of our great contributors at Action Network. We will get 9 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 1: into his luck ratings, which he delivers each and every 10 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 1: week for the UFC cards. Billy will decipher whether or 11 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 1: not there's an edge in terms of what the line 12 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: presents for each fight. So we'll dive into that. You 13 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: can find that at Action Network dot com, Action Network app. 14 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 1: And today special guest filling in for Shanzarello. We have 15 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:10,039 Speaker 1: Action Network Senior editor Dan Stupp with us today, gents, 16 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 1: as we normally do. Dan, I'm sure you know the 17 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 1: drill from tuning into the pod and being with us 18 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 1: at Action Network. We will decide who we like for underdogs. 19 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:21,000 Speaker 1: We'll get into props. We have the Fight of the Night, 20 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 1: Burns and Muhammad. We'll break that one down and then 21 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:28,120 Speaker 1: we'll finish up with quote unquote best bets, which that's 22 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: always a unique discussion on this show because we think 23 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:34,479 Speaker 1: every bet on UFC pod is the best bet. So 24 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 1: but first main event, Al Jamaine Sterling, Henry Sahudo very 25 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:44,480 Speaker 1: tight line here, Sahuto Billy is the favorite at minus 26 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: one twenty. Sterling, the hometown kid makes his return. He's 27 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: from Uniondale, New Jersey. He's at minus one oh six 28 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 1: at FanDuel, which way we lean in here. I know 29 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 1: Al Jamaine is not shy to be very outspoken and 30 00:01:57,680 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: he's very fired up to be back home. 31 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a really fun fight. I know a 32 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 3: lot of people have been kind of down on this 33 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 3: pay per view, but I think this is a tremendous fight, 34 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 3: very intriguing. Sterling is the current hundred thirty five pound champion. 35 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 3: Henry Shudo retired in air quotes three years ago as 36 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 3: the champion, having never lost it. So, you know, we 37 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 3: really have two guys who could make the rightful claim 38 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 3: as the lineal or the legitimate hundred thirty five pound champion. 39 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 3: But you know, one of those guys has been out 40 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:28,240 Speaker 3: for three years and the other one has been active fighting. 41 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 3: You reference the luck ratings a little bit earlier. I 42 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 3: think we could kind of make a case that both 43 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 3: these guys have been a little bit lucky to have 44 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 3: the record they have. Sterling won one hundred and thirty 45 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 3: five pound title with a disqualification against Potter Yan defended 46 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 3: it with a very close split decision. I thought it 47 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 3: was the right call, but you could certainly make a 48 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 3: case that it wasn't. And then his next title defense 49 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 3: was against TJ. Dillashaw, who came in with one arm 50 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 3: and basically never stood a chance in that fight. Sahudo 51 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 3: on his side, he has a couple of real close 52 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 3: split decisions and title fights won at one to twenty five, 53 00:02:57,040 --> 00:02:59,960 Speaker 3: one thirty five. Again, nothing I would say is a robbery. 54 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 3: He didn't necessarily deserve to win, but it wouldn't have 55 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 3: been a big leap to see him not winning either 56 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 3: of those fights. So from a luck rating standpoint, I 57 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 3: don't think there's a ton to split this one. So 58 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:12,120 Speaker 3: when we have close fights like this, I like to 59 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 3: look at and Drillo and I discussed this most weeks. 60 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 3: Of the three facets of MMA, who's got an edge 61 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 3: in two of them, and that's striking, wrestling and then grappling. 62 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 3: Once it gets to the ground. Sterling is so much bigger. 63 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 3: He's got three inches of three and a half inches 64 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 3: in reach. Looks like he might even be a lightweight, 65 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:29,639 Speaker 3: like it'll be really interesting to see how he makes 66 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:31,360 Speaker 3: the weight or how much longer he makes the weight. 67 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 3: So I think that's more than enough to give him 68 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 3: a striking advantage. So Hudo has some knockouts on his records, 69 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:38,480 Speaker 3: but they've really all been set up with the threat 70 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 3: of the wrestling. He's not just coming out there and 71 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 3: piecing people up with his striking. So Hudo two thousand 72 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 3: and eight. You know, gold medalist in wrestling, clearly the 73 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 3: better wrestler, but I think Sterling's better once it gets 74 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 3: to the ground. He has better submissions, excellent backtakes. So 75 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 3: that makes it tough for Suhudo because I don't know 76 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 3: if he's going to want to take things to the ground. 77 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:58,119 Speaker 3: He certainly can, but whether it's workout for him once 78 00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 3: it gets there is a big question. And Suhudo is 79 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 3: wrestling style. Those guys exposed their backs a lot when 80 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 3: they're trying to get up and they're trying to change positions. 81 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 3: That's really tough against Sterling because he might have the 82 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 3: best back takes in MMA. He you know, backpacked Peter 83 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 3: Yan for very large portions of both of their fights. 84 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 3: That's just kind of his thing. So of things considered, 85 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 3: if Suhudo was fresh and active and we knew he 86 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:22,560 Speaker 3: hadn't lost a step, I'd say this line is about right. 87 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 3: It would be about to pick them. But we don't 88 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 3: know any of those things. He could be a bit slower. 89 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 3: He's thirty six, he hasn't fought in three years, He's 90 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 3: small for the division. Whatever percent chance you apply to 91 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 3: Sudo being not his best self, that's roughly your edge, 92 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 3: I think in the Sterling side. So minus one eleven. 93 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 3: I like him. Wish I would have got on when 94 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:43,160 Speaker 3: you could get a little bit better odds, but it's 95 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:45,039 Speaker 3: been bouncing around all week, so by the time you 96 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 3: listen to this, you might get minus one oh five 97 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:49,039 Speaker 3: or even money on Sterling. But I'm more than happy 98 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 3: with it at minus one eleven. 99 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 1: Nice. So many questions dan surrounding this fight. Sahuto, the age, 100 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: the layoff is Billy mapped out there. The other questions 101 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 1: about how can he go up against Sterling and his 102 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:05,760 Speaker 1: grappling technique, How do you break this one down? And 103 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 1: where do you see an edge potentially? 104 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, No, I think Billy kind of sold me earlier 105 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:12,960 Speaker 4: in the week on Sterling. I think it's the right 106 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:16,280 Speaker 4: play here. I think even without the layoff and the 107 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:19,719 Speaker 4: age and other concerns we would have for Henry or 108 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:22,720 Speaker 4: Henry Shuda, I think Sterling's the right play here. Like 109 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 4: you said, the scrambles, I think some of the submissions 110 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 4: as Sahuda probably does have a whole lot of experience with. 111 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 4: Like you said, he's an Olympic gold mess wrest Olympic 112 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:36,160 Speaker 4: gold medalist wrestler, but he's facing some really funky jiu 113 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 4: jitsu that he probably hasn't experienced a whole lot in 114 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,600 Speaker 4: his career. You know, there's also a stat that's going 115 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:46,040 Speaker 4: around this week, and I've mentioned it a few times 116 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 4: that when fighters are thirty five or older, they're two 117 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 4: and twenty eight in USC title fights at one hundred 118 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 4: and seventy pounds or lighter. And I think that really 119 00:05:54,680 --> 00:06:00,359 Speaker 4: just underscores that in these lighter divisions, like any you know, anything, 120 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 4: you start giving away with age, which is usually your 121 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:06,239 Speaker 4: chin and your speed and things like that, the younger 122 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 4: guys are just going to capitalize on that. So you know, 123 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 4: I don't bet strictly on kind of the trends and stuff, 124 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:13,359 Speaker 4: but I think that's a really telling one. And the 125 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:15,919 Speaker 4: fact that both of those victories, the two and twenty 126 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 4: eight record were at one seventy. We rarely haven't seen 127 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 4: the you know guy, The older guys really excel in 128 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 4: these lighterweight title fights. So one more reason I like 129 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 4: Sterling in this fight. 130 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, and to your point with the lighter weight classes, 131 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 3: just making weight is harder the older you get is 132 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 3: you know, most of us can attest to. It's just 133 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 3: it's harder to keep that weight off and all the 134 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 3: damage you're doing to your body with those dehydrations. Everyone 135 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:41,720 Speaker 3: is a little bit harder than the last one. You 136 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 3: take a guy like Sahudo, who in two thousand and 137 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 3: eight was making time and time again for wrestling matches 138 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:49,599 Speaker 3: and then continue to do that for essentially his whole life, 139 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 3: right has been wrestling since a kid. Each one of 140 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 3: those is a little bit harder and each one takes 141 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 3: a little bit more out of you. So that's another factor. 142 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 1: Okay, main event on pay per view, looking forward to it. 143 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:05,839 Speaker 1: Sterling and Sahudo very very short favorite in Sihudo so 144 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,159 Speaker 1: we'll find out if that. As Billy said, keep an 145 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 1: eye on the price. It could change over the next 146 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 1: twenty four hours. Onto our favorite underdogs. Billy, a lot 147 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: of closed lines here, as we said, with this fight, 148 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 1: and that's kind of the theme for this car. Where 149 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 1: are you finding value with the underdog this week? 150 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't really love any specific underdogs here. I'm 151 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 3: gonna mention two real quick. Braxton Smith is about one 152 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 3: forty fighting park reporter. I'm going to mention him with 153 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 3: one of my props. I also I'm going to have 154 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 3: a little bit of a sprinkle on Joseph Holmes at 155 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:38,239 Speaker 3: plus one thirty two. Holmes is fighting Claudio Hiberio, who's 156 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 3: own one in the UFC and looked great before he 157 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 3: got to the UFC, but he was fighting a really 158 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 3: really low level of competition. So that doesn't mean he 159 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 3: can't look good against better competition, but it means we 160 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:50,920 Speaker 3: haven't seen him do it yet. Holmes is one and 161 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 3: two in the UFC, but you know he's beaten the 162 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 3: UFC level competitor at least once. Holmes is also much 163 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 3: taller and longer and has the grappling advantage. I'm not 164 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:00,800 Speaker 3: sold on him. I don't think Holmes is a great 165 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,559 Speaker 3: fighter by any stretch, but to get plus money against 166 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 3: a guy who's never won a fight in the UFC 167 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 3: and isn't some huge prospect, I'll take a little nibble 168 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:09,680 Speaker 3: at that one Dan. 169 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 1: Underdog that you might like this week. 170 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm pretty chalky this week, and I'll probably be 171 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 4: on a lot of favorites and prop bets, but one, 172 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 4: and I hate to say that I like this bet 173 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 4: because I hate that I like this bet, but Chrome 174 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 4: Gracie versus Charles Ordain they opened the pay per view 175 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 4: main card. Gracie's coming off of three and a half 176 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 4: year layoff, so of course I'm going to back him 177 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:35,320 Speaker 4: because that's a very smart play. But honestly, he's older. 178 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 4: He didn't look real great in his last fight. I 179 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 4: think maybe we're getting a bit of a discount on 180 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 4: him just because he did look so terrible. But again, 181 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 4: that was three and a half years ago, so maybe 182 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 4: we should put a little some into it. But really, 183 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 4: he's a jiu jitsu guy, and he's not just a 184 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,520 Speaker 4: Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt. He's kind of the next 185 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 4: level jiu jitsu black belt. He really I think just 186 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 4: needs to get to this fight to the ground once 187 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 4: or twice, and against a guy like Jordaine who has 188 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 4: down defense of less than fifty percent. I like his 189 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 4: chances over fifteen fights or over fifteen minutes of getting 190 00:09:05,840 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 4: this fight to the ground. You give him a lamb Aneck. 191 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:11,680 Speaker 4: I think he's going to probably get the submission here. 192 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 4: So him at plus one fifty two at fan duel, 193 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 4: I think he can get him via submission at plus 194 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 4: two thirty. 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All promotions are subject to qualification 204 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 1: and eligibility requirements. Rewards issued as non withdrawable free bets 205 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 1: or site credit free bets expire seven DA from insuance 206 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:04,760 Speaker 1: excludes Michigan disassociated persons. Please gamble responsibily. Gambling problem called 207 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:07,439 Speaker 1: one eight hundred next step in Arizona one eight hundred 208 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 1: five to two two four seven zero zero in Colorado, 209 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 1: d C, Kansas, Louisiana, Nevada, Wyoming, or Virginia. One eight 210 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:16,199 Speaker 1: hundred twenty seven zero seven one one seven for confidential 211 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 1: help in Michigan one eight hundred gambler in Indiana, Maryland, 212 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,320 Speaker 1: New Jersey, or West Virginia. One eight hundred Bets off 213 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: in Iowa. One eight hundred nine eight one zero zero 214 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 1: two three. In Puerto Rico, call eight seven seven eight 215 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 1: hope and Why, or text hope and Why. In New 216 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 1: York caller tex Tennessee redline at eight hundred eighty eight 217 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:33,760 Speaker 1: nine nine seven eight nine are called one eight eight 218 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 1: eight seven seven seven nine six nine six in Mississippi. 219 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 1: In Ontario, if you have questions or concerns about your 220 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:42,719 Speaker 1: gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connects Ontario 221 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 1: at one eight six six five three one two six 222 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,959 Speaker 1: zero zero to speak to an advisor free of charge. 223 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 1: Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, and Utah and 224 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:54,839 Speaker 1: other states where prohibited promotional offer is not available in 225 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 1: Nevada and New York. Onto the Fight of the night, 226 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:00,440 Speaker 1: one fight that we have targeted on the main card. 227 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:05,199 Speaker 1: It's no surprise that we're targeting Gilbert Burns and Balal Muhammad. 228 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:07,920 Speaker 1: Burns at minus one thirty Muhammad plus one oh six 229 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 1: while Muhammad Billy has his stock has risen slightly here 230 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 1: as of late. You map this out on your luck 231 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 1: ratings right up again actionnetwork dot com. You can find 232 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:24,440 Speaker 1: it titled UFC to eighty eight Luck Ratings. At the top, 233 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: you think Burns is slightly undervalued and there's a chance 234 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 1: here to wait on Burns is striking. There are a 235 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,440 Speaker 1: lot of boxes he checks to have an edge in 236 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 1: this fight. 237 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a really tough one. I'm a huge 238 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 3: fan of both these guys. This should very obviously be 239 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 3: for the next welterweight title shot, but that's not how 240 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:45,959 Speaker 3: the UFC works. Also, they're making it a five round 241 00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 3: fight despite it not being a title fight, which honestly, 242 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:50,839 Speaker 3: it's probably the biggest factor here. This fight came together 243 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:53,840 Speaker 3: on just twelve days notice or maybe thirteen, I forget 244 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 3: exactly when they announced it. Not a ton of time 245 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 3: to prepare for a five round fight, you know. Gilbert 246 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:02,320 Speaker 3: Burns super high level jiu jitsu guy, as Dan mentioned 247 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:04,439 Speaker 3: with Krong Gracie, not just a black belt like a 248 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 3: multi time world champion in jiu jitsu Blah Mohammed. Probably 249 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 3: the better wrestler kind of comes down to the striking. 250 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 3: I like the strides that Burns has made in his 251 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:15,080 Speaker 3: striking as of late, he's looked much better in that area. 252 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 3: Traded to you know, blow for blow with Hamzat Chimayev, 253 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 3: which was very impressive. Could have won that fight depending 254 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:23,839 Speaker 3: on how you judged it. And there's a bit of 255 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 3: a narrative about Burns having cardio issues, which I get. 256 00:12:27,840 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 3: You know, I love to rag on jiu jitsu guys 257 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:31,440 Speaker 3: for their cardio because they only do one round matches, 258 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 3: so when they have to come back out, it's a 259 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 3: whole different world, you know. But with that said, this 260 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 3: is Burns's third fight in twenty twenty three, already last 261 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 3: almost just a month ago. That's a double edged sword, 262 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 3: because if you're the kind of guy who stays in 263 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 3: the gym, stays ready. Having those fights back to back 264 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:48,840 Speaker 3: just means you're in better shape. He didn't take a 265 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 3: ton of damage in either of them, you know, so 266 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 3: he should be fairly good to go. But a lot 267 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 3: of guys, you know, after a fight, they want to 268 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 3: take a week or two off, and when you only 269 00:12:57,520 --> 00:12:59,480 Speaker 3: fought a month ago, that means you haven't been training. 270 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:03,440 Speaker 3: I'm betting that Burns is in the former camp because 271 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 3: he was the one asking for this fight, asking for 272 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 3: it to be five rounds all that, which makes me 273 00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 3: think he's going to have a conditioning edge here. So 274 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 3: I'm going to bet him in rounds four or five 275 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 3: or by decision at plus two hundred, which is, you know, 276 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 3: one of my favorite bets on FanDuel when they give 277 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,559 Speaker 3: you those multiple round props. Obviously, it could also take 278 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:23,520 Speaker 3: Gilbert Burns live at any point in there. If we 279 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 3: get a better price than that, I'm not sure that 280 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 3: we will. Then the other sneaky factor Blah Mohammed is, 281 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:31,880 Speaker 3: as you might guess, Muslim Ramadan just ended early April. 282 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:34,719 Speaker 3: My guess is his training schedule is pretty disrupted. It's 283 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:36,280 Speaker 3: going to be a really hard weight Cup for him 284 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 3: because he didn't have anything on the books coming into this, 285 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 3: hasn't fought since October. So if either of those factors 286 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:43,079 Speaker 3: mess him up a little bit and sap his cardio, 287 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 3: that's another huge edge for Burns the later this one goes. 288 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's exactly what Burns said a few weeks back, 289 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:51,680 Speaker 1: and as you said, that was before they actually made 290 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 1: the decision to make it a five round fight. But 291 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 1: he said, because now I can get a finish. Muhammed 292 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 1: unbeaten Dan this past nine fights, making a strong case 293 00:14:00,800 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 1: for a title shot, but now if Burns can get 294 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 1: that finish. He puts himself very much in that discussion, 295 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 1: how do you break this one down? And how do 296 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 1: you want to bet it? 297 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:10,840 Speaker 4: I've lost a lot of money betting on Bala Mohammed, 298 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 4: so of course I'm probably going to jump on the 299 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 4: band riot wagon at just the wrong time. But I 300 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 4: actually like muhammadier. I started the week really liking Burns, 301 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 4: you know, like Billy was saying, just being in camp 302 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 4: and doing the five round fights, But I'm starting to 303 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:27,760 Speaker 4: think maybe that could work against him, just kind of 304 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:32,240 Speaker 4: being at that fight ready state for such a long 305 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:35,080 Speaker 4: period this year. I just feel like eventually there's going 306 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 4: to be a dump, and I think maybe he's overestimating 307 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 4: how or underestimating the cardio Mohammad's going to bring into this. 308 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 4: I think he's going to probably be in good shape. 309 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 4: I think he probably remained in good shape. I think 310 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 4: he saw through Ramadan before, so I'm not real concerned 311 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 4: about that. I think the big difference here, I think 312 00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 4: he's going to be good with the takedown defence early, 313 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 4: and I think is going to use a lot of 314 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 4: energy on that. I know Billy kind of liked Burns 315 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:08,400 Speaker 4: and rounds four or five or decision. I actually like 316 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 4: the flip side of that. I like Mohammed to kind 317 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:13,560 Speaker 4: of start to wear down Burns early, kind of with 318 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 4: the takedown the fence, maybe pepperhim with some shots, and 319 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 4: eventually start to take over. So I like him in 320 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 4: four or five, around four or five in decision, and 321 00:15:23,480 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 4: I wish it was plus two hundred like Billy's bet, 322 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 4: but at plus one seventy, I'm really happy with that bet. 323 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 3: All right. 324 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 1: Fascinating with the Ramadan angle two is very interesting. 325 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 3: It's tough with stuff like that because you don't really know, 326 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 3: like he could have been training at night and staying 327 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 3: on his diet and all that stuff, or he could 328 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 3: have been taken it easy and just like Burns. So 329 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 3: both of those are clearly double edged swords. And with 330 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 3: both with you know, the bets that we've given out collectively, 331 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 3: the smartest play might just be to take lay the 332 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:53,160 Speaker 3: juice on the over. Since we both think this one's 333 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 3: going to go late. 334 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 1: Let's explore the prop market over at FanDuel Tons to 335 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 1: find when it comes to UFC Billy, where did you 336 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:03,160 Speaker 1: find an edge in the prop market potentially? 337 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, this is, you know, almost to prop squad levels 338 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 3: of juice. I'm looking at Braxton smith by first round 339 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:12,600 Speaker 3: KO at plus three forty. His typology is really weird. 340 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 3: He made his pro debut in twenty fourteen, lost to 341 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 3: Chase Sherman. Crickets for eight years, just disappears, doesn't fight, 342 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 3: who knows what he's doing, comes back in twenty twenty two. 343 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 3: Five straight first round victories in the last like eleven months. 344 00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:26,080 Speaker 3: I think all of them were even within all of 345 00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 3: them knockouts. I think all we're in within like three 346 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:31,200 Speaker 3: minutes or something crazy like that. So he's fighting Park 347 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 3: Reporter three and three in the UFC All three of 348 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:37,320 Speaker 3: Park Reporter's losses first round. You know, Park Reporter's kind 349 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 3: of this big plotting heavyweight. Whear's you down with volume. 350 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 3: I think this is either going to be braxit. Smith 351 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 3: finishes them pretty much right away, or Porter out lasts 352 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 3: sim down the stretch. So if you wanted to hedge 353 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 3: this one, park Reporter live after round one if he 354 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 3: manages to survive, I think is a great angle as well. 355 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 3: But we've got one guy with one way to win 356 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 3: fighting someone who only has one way to lose historically, 357 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 3: and you can get plus three forty on it. Love 358 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 3: that one. 359 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 1: Dan favorite prop for UFC two eighty eight. 360 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 4: I've got a pair of them from the prelims. I 361 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:10,359 Speaker 4: hadn't mentioned I was kind of chalky this card, so 362 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 4: I was looking for props that maybe would get a 363 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:16,159 Speaker 4: little closer to even if I were lucky. I like 364 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 4: Kennedy Zadjuku against Devin Clark in the pre limbs. He's 365 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:22,880 Speaker 4: minus one ninety, but inside the distance he's plus one ten. 366 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 4: I think if he's going to win this, it's probably 367 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 4: going to be versus knockout. We've just seen Devin Clark 368 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 4: really inconsistent, and I think his stock's a little high 369 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:36,920 Speaker 4: coming off a win. And then also Chaos Williams. He's 370 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 4: fighting Bideo, a guy who just really isn't USC caliber. 371 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,600 Speaker 4: Chaos is minus three ten. I think that makes sense 372 00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 4: he should be a big favorite for him to win. 373 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 4: By Ko's only minus one twenty. I think that's his 374 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 4: most likely path to victory. So while a minus one 375 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 4: twenty prop bet probably isn't the sexiest thing, I actually 376 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 4: think there's a ton of value there. So I like 377 00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 4: Chaos Williams via Ko and Zadjuku inside the distance. 378 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,120 Speaker 1: All right, as we normally do, we wrap with our 379 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:05,720 Speaker 1: best bets. 380 00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:07,640 Speaker 3: Say as I like to say, it's our last bet. 381 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:11,919 Speaker 1: Yeah, our last bet. That's good now. Sometimes Zola will say, 382 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: I feel really good about this one. I actually did 383 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:15,440 Speaker 1: make up my best bet, so he would he would 384 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 1: give that caveat your final bet today, Billy for UFC 385 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:19,120 Speaker 1: two eighty eight. 386 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think you know, fifty one to forty nine. 387 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 3: This probably is my best bet on the card, and 388 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 3: that's Drew Dover by knockout at minus one ten. He's 389 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:29,880 Speaker 3: fighting Matt Ravola. They call him the steam rolla. These 390 00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 3: guys have no interest in defense. They have very limited 391 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 3: interest in grappling. They just want to stand, throw heavy punches, 392 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 3: see who falls first. But Drew Dober, much to my 393 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,920 Speaker 3: amazement when I broke down this fight at the Action Network, 394 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:44,160 Speaker 3: has never been knocked out in the UFC. I thought 395 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 3: for sure at some point somebody would have caught him 396 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,359 Speaker 3: because he just slugs and slugs. But you know, the 397 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:50,640 Speaker 3: chin has held up to this point. For Vola has 398 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,480 Speaker 3: two quick knockout losses and seemingly gets hurt in every 399 00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:55,680 Speaker 3: single fight, like he's been dropped multiple times in fights 400 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 3: he ended up winning. Dover's athleticism and power is just 401 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:01,160 Speaker 3: too much where you can afford to play that game 402 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 3: and get clipped and expect to come back and win. 403 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 3: So Drewover a knockout minus one ten. This one's almost 404 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 3: certainly going to be a knockout. And when we got 405 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 3: two guys playing rock and sock and robots, I want 406 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:11,800 Speaker 3: the one with the better chin. 407 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 1: All right, Dan, take us home your best bet. 408 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 4: We're coming from the cut from the same cloth. I 409 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 4: actually like Gober here too. I'm cool with him on 410 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 4: the money line just in case this somehow turns into 411 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 4: a wrestling fest and things slow down. But Dober Vako 412 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,640 Speaker 4: pretty much even money. I will take that all day. 413 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 4: I like Billy broke it down perfectly. But I think 414 00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:37,160 Speaker 4: even if Ravola goes in there not expecting to have 415 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:40,920 Speaker 4: this slug fest, a guy like Dober is going to 416 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 4: be able to go to him into it the crowd, 417 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 4: and Jersey's going to crowd him into or go to 418 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:49,200 Speaker 4: him into a bit of a firefight. So Dober Vako, 419 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 4: Billy and I in agreement. I love that bet. 420 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:54,960 Speaker 1: All right, gents, great stuff, Thank you very much. Again. 421 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:58,200 Speaker 1: You can find Billy Ward's luck ratings for UFC two 422 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: eighty eight over on Action work dot Com in the 423 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,880 Speaker 1: Action Network app, and he titles this one the undervalued 424 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,880 Speaker 1: fighter to bet before it's too late. 425 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:14,160 Speaker 3: That one's gone. Sorry guys to vote on that one. 426 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, still great headline, so if you but for 427 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:21,160 Speaker 1: the other fights that are applicable, you can check that out. 428 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,520 Speaker 1: Danced up. Action Network Senior editor, thanks for filling in 429 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,719 Speaker 1: today for Zerillo. We appreciate it, no problem, my pleasure. 430 00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:29,879 Speaker 4: And we'll still have all the Sean's pre fight stuff 431 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:31,400 Speaker 4: on Action Network, so check that out. 432 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,919 Speaker 1: Very good. All right, that's it, Thank you very much, folks. 433 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 1: Enjoy it. Enjoy the prelims, of course the main card. 434 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 1: We've got the weigh in coming up on the video 435 00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 1: side as well, so check that out if you need 436 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:44,680 Speaker 1: more UFC content for Billy Ward Dance stup Brendon glass Sheen. 437 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,960 Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning into the Action Network podcast presented by Bandle. 438 00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:55,120 Speaker 1: We'll talk to you again next week. Action Network reminds 439 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,200 Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly. 440 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:00,399 Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 441 00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:03,680 Speaker 4: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred 442 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:04,200 Speaker 4: Gambler