1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

2
00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:08,319
Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action bolsome. All right, here we go.

3
00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:16,079
Speaker 2: We're growing in Joe. I'm sitting up to cash. We'll

4
00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:19,000
Speaker 2: see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go

5
00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:19,360
Speaker 2: to win.

6
00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720
Speaker 3: That's incredible.

7
00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:25,280
Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right,

8
00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:28,680
Speaker 2: this is the ultimate kabine you want to pack.

9
00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:32,800
Speaker 3: And we are under way.

10
00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:37,360
Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, and welcome to NFL

11
00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,400
Speaker 4: Week one of the twenty twenty four season. This is

12
00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:46,239
Speaker 4: our final episode of the NFL preseason, our annual NFL

13
00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:51,040
Speaker 4: Awards episode where our expert Brandon Anderson will highlight his

14
00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:56,120
Speaker 4: favorite pick and long shots across MVP, Coach of the Year,

15
00:00:56,800 --> 00:01:00,120
Speaker 4: Rookies of the Year, and more. Brendan glass Sheen in

16
00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,840
Speaker 4: the host chair. After today, we are a knee deep

17
00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:05,840
Speaker 4: into NFL Week one. Here at the Action Network Podcast.

18
00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:09,840
Speaker 4: The full lineup of episodes, including our NFL Week one

19
00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:13,120
Speaker 4: betting Preview and Best Bets episodes.

20
00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:16,880
Speaker 3: This Thursday and Fridays. There's the lineup. This is our

21
00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:20,000
Speaker 3: final preseason pod. Brandon and He've been on a bunch

22
00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,280
Speaker 3: of these awards.

23
00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,639
Speaker 4: Always a fun time when we get to talk about these.

24
00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:29,000
Speaker 4: We're going to start with Offensive Rookie of the Year.

25
00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,000
Speaker 4: For most of these, if not all, Brandon is going

26
00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:36,080
Speaker 4: to give us the general criteria, the landscape as to

27
00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:39,479
Speaker 4: who normally wins this award, and Brandon's going to lay

28
00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,320
Speaker 4: that out right now, starting with Offensive Rookie of the Year.

29
00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:45,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the historic profile is important helps us

30
00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:48,160
Speaker 5: narrow the field sometimes, so for Offense Rookie of the Year.

31
00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:51,000
Speaker 5: We love quarterbacks here. Quarterbacks a one for the last

32
00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:54,440
Speaker 5: eight seven to fourteen, ten of twenty, like consistently fifty

33
00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:56,760
Speaker 5: percent of Look we saw the draft, this is the

34
00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:57,720
Speaker 5: year of the quarterback.

35
00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,240
Speaker 2: Six of the top twelve picks we're quarterback.

36
00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:03,240
Speaker 5: I think we probably want a quarterback here only for

37
00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:06,560
Speaker 5: the last fourteen winners here won ten or more games.

38
00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:08,680
Speaker 5: You don't need to win games win Rookie of the Year. Now,

39
00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,400
Speaker 5: if your quarterback wing five hundred or better, your golden

40
00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:13,640
Speaker 5: we're probably giving it to you. But over half of

41
00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:16,600
Speaker 5: our winners last fourteen years finished sub five hundred, So

42
00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:17,400
Speaker 5: we don't need wins.

43
00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:18,280
Speaker 2: We need stats.

44
00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:22,680
Speaker 5: Quarterback four thousand yards thirty touchdowns. That's a pretty good measure.

45
00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,400
Speaker 5: Running back and receiver. You need a big year. You

46
00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,640
Speaker 5: need like thirteen hundred yards ten touchdowns on average, and

47
00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:30,880
Speaker 5: a key thing here this will be the case with

48
00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:34,360
Speaker 5: both Rookie of the Year. It matters where you got drafted.

49
00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:37,919
Speaker 5: Seventeen of the last twenty Rookies of the Year first

50
00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:42,600
Speaker 5: round picks, sixteen of the last twenty top twelve picks.

51
00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,240
Speaker 5: That narrows the field dramatically. Now a little bit less

52
00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:48,280
Speaker 5: this year because literally the whole top twelve was on offense.

53
00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:51,280
Speaker 5: We've got a few more choices there, but even really

54
00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:53,720
Speaker 5: forty percent, we're just top three picks in the last

55
00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,600
Speaker 5: two decades, so we want someone near the top. It

56
00:02:56,639 --> 00:02:59,120
Speaker 5: makes sense, right these are the best guys. You're probably

57
00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:02,000
Speaker 5: getting playing time right away. One other things, Speaking of

58
00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:05,160
Speaker 5: playing time, eleven out of thirteen winners in the last

59
00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:08,959
Speaker 5: thirteen have played at least fifteen games, so be careful.

60
00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,800
Speaker 5: We got guys like Drake may not starting yet. You

61
00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:13,560
Speaker 5: might want to bet them. But if they don't get

62
00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:16,399
Speaker 5: in the lineup really quickly here history has not really

63
00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:18,680
Speaker 5: been in their favor. And then one important note too.

64
00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:21,720
Speaker 5: This will be different in other awards, but for offense

65
00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:25,320
Speaker 5: Rookie of the Year favorites do not tend to win here.

66
00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:29,920
Speaker 5: Actually last decade, only two guys with odds shore than

67
00:03:29,960 --> 00:03:32,480
Speaker 5: plus eight hundred at the start of the season won

68
00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:35,400
Speaker 5: the award. So that's interesting because we got a big

69
00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:36,119
Speaker 5: favorite this year.

70
00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,880
Speaker 4: Caleb William's your favorite at plus one twenty number one

71
00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:44,320
Speaker 4: overall pick, of course, and Jayden Daniels files in next

72
00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:48,760
Speaker 4: at plus six hundred. The receiver component in this rookie

73
00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:51,720
Speaker 4: class is fascinating. As you said, the first twelve picks

74
00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:55,280
Speaker 4: were all on offense. But you've got Malik Neighbors Giants,

75
00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,960
Speaker 4: Marvin Harrison Junior Cardinals, rollm of Doonzay. I know he's

76
00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:01,680
Speaker 4: in a crowded receiving room with Caleb Williams. Those two

77
00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:03,640
Speaker 4: kind of go hand in hands. That one's a tough

78
00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:06,240
Speaker 4: one to kind of pick apart and decipher. So there's

79
00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:08,240
Speaker 4: your field, and like you said, good notes there on

80
00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:10,440
Speaker 4: Drake May We know bo Nix is going to start.

81
00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:13,280
Speaker 4: McCarthy's out for the year, Michael Pennix will be on

82
00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:16,680
Speaker 4: the bench behind Kirk Cousins. It wasn't long ago though,

83
00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:18,880
Speaker 4: going back to the draft when Pennix was one of

84
00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,440
Speaker 4: your long shots, and that number has shortened going back

85
00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:24,160
Speaker 4: way back now after the draft Brandon came on and

86
00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:27,560
Speaker 4: gave his whiplash picks on the awards market.

87
00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:28,520
Speaker 3: So where are you.

88
00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:32,360
Speaker 4: At right now leading into the week into the week

89
00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:35,560
Speaker 4: one slate your pick for offensive Rookie of the Year.

90
00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:39,040
Speaker 5: So Caleb Williams, I think is the right favor. Right,

91
00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:42,400
Speaker 5: he is entering an offense where you've got three stud

92
00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,839
Speaker 5: receivers DJ Moore, Key and Allen Roma Dunza. You got

93
00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:47,920
Speaker 5: Shane Waldern there to leave the offense. I think that's

94
00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:51,040
Speaker 5: an even bigger addition than the receivers. Seattle's top ten

95
00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:54,120
Speaker 5: in DVOA passing the last two years with Gino Smith

96
00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:57,680
Speaker 5: and Gino put up about four thousand yards twenty five touchdowns,

97
00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:00,000
Speaker 5: Like those are the right numbers here, and we get

98
00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:02,760
Speaker 5: get maybe a couple more touchdowns for kle Williams on

99
00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:04,880
Speaker 5: the ground that counts toward that number as well. And

100
00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:07,680
Speaker 5: he's done that pretty well. It's a very easy narrative, right,

101
00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:09,600
Speaker 5: we got the number one to pick push for five

102
00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:13,400
Speaker 5: hundred in a big market. You got the personality Brendon.

103
00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,800
Speaker 5: If he throws for four thousand yards and thirty touchdowns

104
00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:20,040
Speaker 5: this year, that would not just win Rookie of the

105
00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:23,600
Speaker 5: Year in all likelihood those are Chicago Bears all time

106
00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:27,279
Speaker 5: franchise rerecor. No quarterback has ever done either one of

107
00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:31,360
Speaker 5: those things. Like the narrative is obvious. However, defensive line

108
00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:34,560
Speaker 5: not good at pass blocking. That I think is going

109
00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:36,479
Speaker 5: to be an adjustment here. We've seen him in the

110
00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:39,520
Speaker 5: preseason do the mahomesy and the thing right. We see

111
00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:42,240
Speaker 5: him hold the ball, scramble around, try to hunt the

112
00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:45,279
Speaker 5: big play. That looks great when it works, it also

113
00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:49,360
Speaker 5: can turn to sacks in interceptions and mistakes. Start out

114
00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:52,640
Speaker 5: the season against Denard Wilson's defense in Tennessee, that's a

115
00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:57,160
Speaker 5: Baltimore defense style. Then Demico Ryan's defense with Houston. It's

116
00:05:57,200 --> 00:05:58,960
Speaker 5: a tough start for a new rookie.

117
00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:02,080
Speaker 2: I think Kile Williams is the right favorite.

118
00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:05,279
Speaker 5: However, he's not the right favorite to bet at plus

119
00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:09,119
Speaker 5: one fifty forty percent implied it's just way too short.

120
00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:12,080
Speaker 5: I can't get behind putting my money on someone effectively

121
00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:16,000
Speaker 5: kill Williams against the field in the deepest offensive rookie class.

122
00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:18,720
Speaker 2: I can't get there. So what do you think about

123
00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,480
Speaker 2: Caleb Williams as is he the right favorite? To you?

124
00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:23,599
Speaker 2: Is plus one forty two much?

125
00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:29,039
Speaker 4: I think when you consider the division he plays in.

126
00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:32,520
Speaker 4: So no, don't I don't think I think you're onto it.

127
00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:34,760
Speaker 4: I think forty percent implied does not make a whole

128
00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:37,520
Speaker 4: lot of sense for Caleb Williams. They also, and this

129
00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,200
Speaker 4: is a theme for all of these young quarterbacks in theory,

130
00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:42,160
Speaker 4: when you're drafting that high or on a bad team.

131
00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:45,000
Speaker 4: We'll do this again, and I should get this out there.

132
00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:47,320
Speaker 4: We're going to Brandon's building the portfolio for all of

133
00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,640
Speaker 4: these awards. So when we get to week eight, week nine,

134
00:06:50,680 --> 00:06:53,440
Speaker 4: maybe even earlier, there are going to be opportunities to

135
00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:57,800
Speaker 4: bet these award markets to capitalize something I think about

136
00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:00,839
Speaker 4: with quarterback and brock perty with someone we discussed last

137
00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:04,479
Speaker 4: year for sure, or maybe going back a few years now, the.

138
00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:05,800
Speaker 3: National TV windows.

139
00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:09,279
Speaker 4: These quarterbacks don't have those windows to capitalize on those spots.

140
00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,120
Speaker 3: So that kind of fits under that entire umbrella. But

141
00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:16,440
Speaker 3: you're on it. Though Caleb Williams has even.

142
00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:19,160
Speaker 4: Just a slightly above average year, He's the biggest star

143
00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:21,760
Speaker 4: in Chicago. He's the biggest star in Chicago. It's him

144
00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:26,480
Speaker 4: and Angel Reese right now. Caleb Williams overtake as the

145
00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:28,760
Speaker 4: best athlete in Chicago.

146
00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:33,000
Speaker 3: Sports since Michael that's not crazy to say.

147
00:07:33,000 --> 00:07:36,760
Speaker 5: I think so again, he is the right favorite, but

148
00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:39,360
Speaker 5: he is not the guy you should be betting because

149
00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:41,400
Speaker 5: of the odds. So you mentioned the other guys here,

150
00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:43,680
Speaker 5: Harrison Neighbors, I think you're buying.

151
00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:45,000
Speaker 2: Peak hype, peak value here.

152
00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:47,680
Speaker 5: We saw them both go asso in the preseason. Like

153
00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:49,880
Speaker 5: Neighbors is going to be in a run heavy offense,

154
00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:52,160
Speaker 5: Daniel Jones, that's not a guy I want to invest,

155
00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:54,160
Speaker 5: And that's not a situation I want to invest in.

156
00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:57,760
Speaker 5: Harrison Junior. I like that better. I like your Petsing's offense.

157
00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:00,680
Speaker 5: He's getting drafted in fantasy football as a ten receiver

158
00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:03,160
Speaker 5: right now. Like that, that's just too much hype for

159
00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:06,640
Speaker 5: guy that has yet to play. Go forget Phukanakua. Last

160
00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:09,680
Speaker 5: year one hundred and five catches almost fifteen hundred yards,

161
00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:10,640
Speaker 5: didn't win.

162
00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:12,520
Speaker 2: He got two out of fifty.

163
00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:14,560
Speaker 5: First place votes because we just wanted to give it

164
00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:17,160
Speaker 5: to a quarterback. So I think it's you're the quarterback.

165
00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:19,880
Speaker 5: I don't need Drake May he's not playing yet, no

166
00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:22,360
Speaker 5: offensive line like maybe later if the if the number

167
00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:25,560
Speaker 5: gets long, I certainly don't need to bet Bonecks Captain

168
00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:29,480
Speaker 5: check down noodle alarm. If he takes my money, go congratulations, sir,

169
00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:30,560
Speaker 5: you may have it.

170
00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:33,880
Speaker 4: Well I want and doesn't that become more about Peyton

171
00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:36,360
Speaker 4: in his case for out Coach of the.

172
00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:41,079
Speaker 2: Year, Right situation, quarterback right? Yes? So to me, it's

173
00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,560
Speaker 2: those top two. It's Kayleb Williams as Jane Daniels, and

174
00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:44,760
Speaker 2: I like Jane Daniels.

175
00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:48,240
Speaker 5: This is my pick plus six hundred. Jane Daniels. I

176
00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:51,720
Speaker 5: think that he is a very similar case to Caleb Williams. Now, look,

177
00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:54,880
Speaker 5: the situation's worse. The offensive line is worse, maybe bottom

178
00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:58,160
Speaker 5: of the league. The weapons are worse. Our man, Cliff

179
00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:01,640
Speaker 5: Kingsbury is worse than sh Waldron. That's for Dang shaer

180
00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:05,440
Speaker 5: at running the offense. But Cliff Kingsbury was the offensive

181
00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:09,040
Speaker 5: coordinator when Kyler Murray won Rookie of the Year. Kingsbury

182
00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:12,160
Speaker 5: was a coordinator for ten or top ten Fantasy season

183
00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:15,599
Speaker 5: three times for Kyler. So we know Jane Daniels is

184
00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:18,120
Speaker 5: gonna run. We want stats. I don't really care if

185
00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:21,560
Speaker 5: Jane Daniels is good. I just want numbers. Last three

186
00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:25,679
Speaker 5: seasons at LSU and elsewhere, he averaged seventy yards a game, rushing.

187
00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:29,199
Speaker 5: Last year, Jane Daniels averaged ninety five yards a game

188
00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:32,080
Speaker 5: running last eight games one hundred and eighteen yards a game.

189
00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:34,480
Speaker 5: So we have a real shot here to get to

190
00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,560
Speaker 5: like seven hundred yards. That's fifty yards a game fourteen games.

191
00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:39,680
Speaker 5: We don't need a whole season of that. We could

192
00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:42,240
Speaker 5: get to one thousand yards. Only three quarterbacks ever have

193
00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:45,800
Speaker 5: done that. Even you add in what two hundred passing

194
00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:49,120
Speaker 5: yards and a touchdown a game that doesn't seem like much.

195
00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:51,920
Speaker 5: You basically just created a Lamar Jackson season. Those are

196
00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:54,440
Speaker 5: the Lamar Jackson stats, and that is a two time MVP.

197
00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,360
Speaker 5: So I like Daniels. He has a health risk with

198
00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:00,000
Speaker 5: his running style. He's not gonna win a lot of games,

199
00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,120
Speaker 5: so we don't get that upside. That's why I would

200
00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,440
Speaker 5: prefer Caleb Williams. Straight up. We're not betting.

201
00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,640
Speaker 2: Straight up, we got to take the odds. I get

202
00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:08,319
Speaker 2: a four x.

203
00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:12,400
Speaker 5: Payout on Jane Daniels versus Caleb Williams. So again, don't

204
00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,400
Speaker 5: love either favorite here because we don't want to invest

205
00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:18,400
Speaker 5: too much in the favorites at the award. But Jane Daniels,

206
00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:20,520
Speaker 5: he's the guy for me. Plus six hundred Rookie of

207
00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:20,840
Speaker 5: the Year.

208
00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:22,440
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, I think.

209
00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:25,000
Speaker 4: And we've talked about the commander's schedule in the early

210
00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:27,199
Speaker 4: part of the season on several episodes. Some of the

211
00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:31,040
Speaker 4: fronts they're facing early in the year are daunting, so

212
00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:33,680
Speaker 4: how he adjusts week to week early in the year

213
00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:37,120
Speaker 4: super important. A couple of long shots for this category

214
00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:38,200
Speaker 4: Offensive Rookie of the Year.

215
00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:40,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, So if you want a long shot, you want

216
00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:43,680
Speaker 5: a running back, because only Dak Prescott and Kun Bolden

217
00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:46,520
Speaker 5: have won from outside the first round Rookie of the

218
00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:49,439
Speaker 5: Year in the last three decades. Running backs can do it, though,

219
00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:51,959
Speaker 5: running backs they're just opportunities. So I'll get two running

220
00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:55,080
Speaker 5: backs for you. Blake Korum from the Rams eighty to

221
00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:57,679
Speaker 5: one odds. I honestly thought his odds would be way

222
00:10:57,679 --> 00:10:59,720
Speaker 5: shorter than this after a lot of the preseason buzz.

223
00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,000
Speaker 5: The big news this week Kyene Williams is returning punts.

224
00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:05,280
Speaker 5: Oh no, what if he gets hurt? What are they doing?

225
00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,720
Speaker 5: It's probably nothing? But what's not nothing? What if Koram

226
00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:10,360
Speaker 5: is actually going to be the lead of running back

227
00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:12,480
Speaker 5: and Kyne is maybe more of a guy that they

228
00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:15,760
Speaker 5: use as a receiver. As a punt returner. The Rams

229
00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:19,160
Speaker 5: have an awesome intier offensive line. They run duo so well.

230
00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:22,080
Speaker 5: This is the Sean McVay theme. They have been awesome

231
00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:25,000
Speaker 5: running the ball. Korum is perfect at that, just running,

232
00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:28,080
Speaker 5: taking what's there. If he gets the usage, it's a

233
00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:30,720
Speaker 5: great fit. And in my real long shot long shot

234
00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:34,000
Speaker 5: on this pod today, Kamani Vadal of the Chargers two

235
00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:38,960
Speaker 5: hundred and fifty to one. It's situation, Jim Harbaugh, Greg Roman,

236
00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:42,240
Speaker 5: I know you are running the football, Los Angeles Chargers.

237
00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:46,320
Speaker 5: You've got Joe Alt, top five tackle, possibly top tackle

238
00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:50,280
Speaker 5: duo with Rayshawn Slater. Kamani Vadal is behind Gus Edwards

239
00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:53,080
Speaker 5: and JK. Dobbins, like the leftovers of leftovers from the

240
00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:55,920
Speaker 5: Ravens Now. I know those are Romans guys, but maybe

241
00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:59,120
Speaker 5: Vadal will be Romans guys a pretty similar style. Sixteen

242
00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:02,280
Speaker 5: hundred and sixty one year fourteen scores at Troy last season.

243
00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:04,760
Speaker 5: I don't even know who this dude is. He's a

244
00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:06,679
Speaker 5: running back in the Chargers. I'll take him at two

245
00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:09,480
Speaker 5: hundred fifty to long. That's up injury history too.

246
00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:13,800
Speaker 4: With those two running backs, Edwards and Dobbins, just a

247
00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:17,280
Speaker 4: disposable Razors right, and maybe you catch lightning in a

248
00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:21,120
Speaker 4: bottle with Wadell excellent. A little bit of a longer

249
00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:23,800
Speaker 4: category with offense and the receivers.

250
00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:26,400
Speaker 3: I think it was worth spending time on this award.

251
00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:30,160
Speaker 4: You've been consistent on in terms of how you find

252
00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:32,599
Speaker 4: the correct profile and correct me if I'm wrong. The

253
00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:35,000
Speaker 4: profile is pretty short. It's not a long profile. It's

254
00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:37,200
Speaker 4: way short of the offensive Rookie of the Year. That

255
00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:40,520
Speaker 4: would be Defensive Rookie of the Year last year. Best

256
00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:43,880
Speaker 4: bet on this podcast Will Anderson of the Texans at

257
00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:44,920
Speaker 4: plus five hundred, a.

258
00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:46,319
Speaker 3: Multi unit bet from Brandon.

259
00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:50,400
Speaker 4: We also discussed on the Best Bets pod, which will

260
00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:52,840
Speaker 4: be coming out every Friday morning during the season.

261
00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:54,480
Speaker 3: We discussed late in the year.

262
00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:57,280
Speaker 4: I think it was the first week, second week of December,

263
00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:00,319
Speaker 4: Jalen Carter had that strip.

264
00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:01,640
Speaker 3: Fumble return for a touchdown.

265
00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,920
Speaker 4: But ever since he's playing time went down, the Eagles crumbled.

266
00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:05,600
Speaker 3: And here come to Texans.

267
00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:07,960
Speaker 4: Will Anderson twenty five to one was a live play

268
00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:10,680
Speaker 4: during the season, so it's obviously not Will this year.

269
00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:16,000
Speaker 4: Who stands out with again you mentioned it not a

270
00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,280
Speaker 4: whole lot of defense drafted at the top in the

271
00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:21,040
Speaker 4: NFL Draft. So where are we finding the best value

272
00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:22,840
Speaker 4: for defensive rookie of the year.

273
00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,079
Speaker 5: Yeah, so let's start with a profile. This is one

274
00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:27,640
Speaker 5: where you do want the favorite. Eight of our last

275
00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:30,760
Speaker 5: twelve winners started plus nine hundred or shorter. So that's

276
00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:33,320
Speaker 5: why we wanted Will Anderson last year. We're gonna look

277
00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:35,680
Speaker 5: at only favorites. I got no long shots here, you

278
00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:37,600
Speaker 5: know me. I love my long shot. So if I

279
00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:40,320
Speaker 5: have no long shot, you know we want favorites. We

280
00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:42,920
Speaker 5: want a pass rusher. Seven of our last ten winners

281
00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:46,200
Speaker 5: had at least seven sacks. This is just flash. We

282
00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:48,680
Speaker 5: just need some flash plays. Give me a flash play.

283
00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:51,760
Speaker 5: You mentioned the fumble recovery. Will Anderson had seven sacks

284
00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:55,319
Speaker 5: last year. Give me flash, and again give me draft position.

285
00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:58,400
Speaker 5: Twenty one out of the last twenty four of this century,

286
00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:01,080
Speaker 5: defensive rookie of the year first round picks, twenty of

287
00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:04,280
Speaker 5: them top fifteen. Hey, Brandan, we only have one top

288
00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,000
Speaker 5: fifteen defender this year, so that's a little bit short there.

289
00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:09,320
Speaker 5: I'm gonna count like a few guys after that, but

290
00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:12,160
Speaker 5: that's really cutting it short. Ten out of twenty four

291
00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:16,120
Speaker 5: just to top five picks there, So there's not a

292
00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:18,640
Speaker 5: lot of options here. We don't need to win games.

293
00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:22,400
Speaker 5: We actually like if we joined bad defenses. Our last

294
00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:25,800
Speaker 5: seven guys that won this award joined a bottom six

295
00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:28,160
Speaker 5: team by points per game allowed and leapt into the

296
00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:33,560
Speaker 5: top eleven. So that's Washington, Arizona, Philly, Carolina, India and Denver.

297
00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:36,640
Speaker 5: And one of those two teams is we've got co

298
00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:39,680
Speaker 5: favorites here. So I think, really we need to talk

299
00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,560
Speaker 5: about the co favorites, don't you think, Brendan I would agree.

300
00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:44,680
Speaker 4: A lot too out of Indianapolis right around plus four

301
00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:47,240
Speaker 4: hundred and the Dallas Turner of the Minnesota Vikings plus

302
00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:50,400
Speaker 4: four to fifty, big drop off to Jared Verse of

303
00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:51,760
Speaker 4: the Los Angeles Rams.

304
00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:52,280
Speaker 3: It's a good point.

305
00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:54,680
Speaker 4: You don't necessarily now it worked out for Will Anderson right.

306
00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:58,120
Speaker 4: Winning team on the division certainly helped, I think for

307
00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,880
Speaker 4: the Stroud argument as well, wined at their sales to

308
00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:04,640
Speaker 4: get voters to be even more convinced a winning program

309
00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:07,680
Speaker 4: after the year the Texans had back in twenty twenty two.

310
00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:10,600
Speaker 4: But I think for these two, I mean, Indianapolis could

311
00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,640
Speaker 4: be good in the South, who knows in with Minnesota

312
00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:17,120
Speaker 4: seeing that Sam Darnold's our quarterback for the foreseeable future.

313
00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:21,200
Speaker 4: Who knows offensively really fun division. So who do you

314
00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:22,560
Speaker 4: come away with here? I mean, if you're telling me

315
00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:24,760
Speaker 4: it's the favorite, it's law to or Turner, who is it?

316
00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:25,480
Speaker 2: Yeah?

317
00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:27,480
Speaker 5: I wouldn't even remind honestly, if you just take both

318
00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:28,600
Speaker 5: of these guys and just be.

319
00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:29,320
Speaker 2: Done for the year.

320
00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:32,040
Speaker 5: To your point on winning, eight of our last fourteen

321
00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:34,200
Speaker 5: rookies of the year were five hundred or worse, but

322
00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:36,760
Speaker 5: five of the last seven did win at least ten games,

323
00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:38,280
Speaker 5: So maybe we do prefer winning.

324
00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:38,440
Speaker 2: Now.

325
00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:39,880
Speaker 5: You got to keep an eye on these trends as

326
00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:43,600
Speaker 5: they develop. I like Dallas Turner plus four fifty. I'm

327
00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,200
Speaker 5: gonna start with law too, and why I'm not picking him.

328
00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,240
Speaker 5: I think he is a very strong case. He's the

329
00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:51,160
Speaker 5: top defender on the board. He's their only top fifteen pick.

330
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,720
Speaker 5: We love that he's in a great D line too.

331
00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:55,840
Speaker 5: He's gonna not necessarily get a lot of double teams

332
00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:59,040
Speaker 5: because he got Grover Stewart, DeForest Buckner, great tackles, quit

333
00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:01,160
Speaker 5: he pay. It's a good it's a good pick. He

334
00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:03,160
Speaker 5: had thirteen and ten a half sacks. He gets a

335
00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:05,920
Speaker 5: lot of pressures in college. I think he'll be good.

336
00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:09,680
Speaker 5: Dallas Turner is basically even odds depending on your book.

337
00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:12,640
Speaker 5: With law two, Dallas Turner was supposed to be the

338
00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,480
Speaker 5: top pick in the draft. Defensively, he's a top pass rusher.

339
00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:18,920
Speaker 5: He's only the third defender. He's number seventeen. I'm gonna

340
00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:20,840
Speaker 5: count that as our top fifteen. Given the way the

341
00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:23,880
Speaker 5: draft played out this year, you mentioned Will Anderson, that's

342
00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:26,200
Speaker 5: our guy. This is a very similar profile. You look

343
00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:29,120
Speaker 5: at stats bomb really similar on what their strengths and

344
00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:31,960
Speaker 5: weaknesses are. Will is a better run defender. I think

345
00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:34,240
Speaker 5: that's why Dallas Turner slipped a little bit. But I

346
00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:36,840
Speaker 5: get some deja fu here, right we got last year

347
00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:40,000
Speaker 5: Houston takes the franchise quarterback and then trays a whole

348
00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:42,160
Speaker 5: bunch of stuff to go up and get their defensive

349
00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:45,160
Speaker 5: minded coach, a star pass rusher who they then play

350
00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,040
Speaker 5: next to Jonathan Grenard all season and he wins Rookie

351
00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:48,400
Speaker 5: of the Year.

352
00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,240
Speaker 2: So Minnesota franchise quarterback.

353
00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:53,720
Speaker 5: I certainly hope as a Vikings fan, they trade a

354
00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:57,200
Speaker 5: bunch of stuff, they go get Dallas Turner, former Alabama player,

355
00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:00,640
Speaker 5: they play them next to who Jonathan Grenard? Who Minnesota

356
00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:03,800
Speaker 5: signed this offseason. Why not go ahead and win Defensive

357
00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:05,359
Speaker 5: Rookie of the Year as well. Now, I think a

358
00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:09,280
Speaker 5: law too slightly fits my profile better. But here's my tiebreaker,

359
00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:13,280
Speaker 5: Brian Flores. Brian Flores had three hundred and forty eight

360
00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:16,280
Speaker 5: blitzes last year, twenty one percent higher than the next

361
00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:19,920
Speaker 5: closest team. To remember, we want sacks, we want flash plays.

362
00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:23,199
Speaker 5: So Dallas Turner we did night of the Draft. I

363
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:25,879
Speaker 5: got him at plus seven to fifty. I still like

364
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:29,160
Speaker 5: him at plus four fifty slightly over a lot too here.

365
00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:30,400
Speaker 5: I think he is the better play.

366
00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:33,360
Speaker 4: Okay, I'm glad you brought up Flores because I think

367
00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:37,120
Speaker 4: since he's left New England he's turned loose a bit

368
00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:39,320
Speaker 4: right as far as like letting guys go after the

369
00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:41,840
Speaker 4: quarterback a little bit more. They can freelance a little

370
00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:44,240
Speaker 4: bit more, which freelancing wasn't allowed in.

371
00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:45,920
Speaker 3: New England during the dynasty.

372
00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:49,280
Speaker 4: Okay, there's Defensive Rookie of the Year. This next one

373
00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:53,240
Speaker 4: fascinates me because just to kind of set the scene, folks,

374
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:55,880
Speaker 4: think of how many starting quarterbacks got hurt last year

375
00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:58,440
Speaker 4: in the National Football League and the amount of quarterbacks

376
00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:01,960
Speaker 4: we had to see play and it oftentimes may have

377
00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:05,000
Speaker 4: pissed us off and ruined our viewing experience on Sunday

378
00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:08,960
Speaker 4: night Monday night, those standalone games, especially when one of

379
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:12,800
Speaker 4: the quarterbacks just absolutely stunk, but it does set up

380
00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:17,080
Speaker 4: for a fascinating comeback player of the year discussion. Brandon

381
00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:19,520
Speaker 4: did add Joe Flacco, which I forgot you did that

382
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:23,480
Speaker 4: mid season two hundred and fifty to one last year.

383
00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:27,800
Speaker 4: Of course, the Deamar Hamlin thing, I think was as

384
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,760
Speaker 4: a sensitive subject, but that was certainly the favorite going

385
00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:33,479
Speaker 4: into the season for reasons I think most of you know.

386
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,000
Speaker 4: But I'm interested, Brandon, this is a year with and

387
00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:39,639
Speaker 4: I want to get the names out there now, just

388
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:43,040
Speaker 4: to remind the audience. Aaron Rodgers got hurt four plays

389
00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:46,159
Speaker 4: into the season last year, Joe Burrow early season injury,

390
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,600
Speaker 4: Kirk Cousins Achilles not even he's not even on the

391
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:53,159
Speaker 4: Vikings anymore, different place, sending a big contract. And then

392
00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:57,440
Speaker 4: Anthony Richardson of course, one of the marquee first round

393
00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:00,080
Speaker 4: quarterbacks coming out of the draft. I mean that it

394
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,440
Speaker 4: really doesn't sound I mean, Daniel Jones was hurt last year.

395
00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,080
Speaker 4: If the Giants have any sort of hope, and I

396
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:07,400
Speaker 4: know this NFL Hard Knocks thing doesn't look really good

397
00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:09,639
Speaker 4: for Daniel Jones. They're crapping all over them there in

398
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:13,280
Speaker 4: New York. But I mean, it's unbelievable the amount of

399
00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,359
Speaker 4: quarterbacks that are coming back from injury. So set us

400
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,800
Speaker 4: up with the profile, and I'm curious as to what

401
00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:22,080
Speaker 4: this kind of field, how it factors into your thinking.

402
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, like, the profile is pretty easy here, right.

403
00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:26,919
Speaker 5: We want a guy that is a quarterback on a

404
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,679
Speaker 5: winning team recovering from a major injury. Eleven of our

405
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:32,760
Speaker 5: last fifteen winners are quarterbacks. Notably, we've not had a

406
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,119
Speaker 5: running back winner here since two thousand and one. I

407
00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:38,240
Speaker 5: think that makes sense. Running Backs, you get your big injury,

408
00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:40,240
Speaker 5: you might never be back again, like you might never

409
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:43,000
Speaker 5: reach that level again, So be careful with your running backs.

410
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 5: You love a quarterback here. Fourteen of those fifteen made

411
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,520
Speaker 5: the playoffs, So you need to win. You can't just

412
00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:51,000
Speaker 5: come back and like exist on a team somewhere. You

413
00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:53,800
Speaker 5: got to actually make a winning impact. And an important

414
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,600
Speaker 5: note for this year, because of our guy Joe Flacco,

415
00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:01,280
Speaker 5: the voters have been specifically struck did this year. This

416
00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:05,040
Speaker 5: is an award for comeback from quote injury or illness,

417
00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 5: no more. Joe Flackell coming back from your couch, no more,

418
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,400
Speaker 5: Gino Smith coming back from sucking. That's the last two winners,

419
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 5: So be careful. Sam Donald, he's pretty high on the

420
00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 5: odds here. Sam Darnald Aine hurt. Sam Donald just stinks

421
00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 5: and got a new chance. Russell Wilson he's not really

422
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 5: been hurt lately. Bryce Young only missed one game last year.

423
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:23,960
Speaker 5: Don't get to come back from sucking. You've got to

424
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 5: come back from an injury. And I think some do

425
00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:30,960
Speaker 5: suck and get hurt. Of course you can come back

426
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:35,240
Speaker 5: from both things. But I think especially I think folks

427
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 5: again sensitive subject.

428
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:38,440
Speaker 2: I think folks feel a little.

429
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,720
Speaker 5: Bit guilty about not giving this to DeMar Hamlin last year.

430
00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 5: So I think we're going to get a pretty straightforward

431
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:45,600
Speaker 5: look here. So I think it's just one of those

432
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,280
Speaker 5: guys you mentioned. I don't know, but Anthony Richards said

433
00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:50,280
Speaker 5: like he barely even played. Ye, you can really come

434
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,200
Speaker 5: back when you have barely been a professional. So I

435
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,680
Speaker 5: think Rogers, Burrow and Kirk Cousins, those are three very

436
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 5: strong candidates. We know these guys, we know who they are.

437
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:02,200
Speaker 5: They all make sense. Kirk, I'm gonna rule out because

438
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 5: he's got the same achilles injury that Rogers had, but

439
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 5: his is more recent. That's bad. His is on his

440
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,199
Speaker 5: plant foot, that's bad. And his team is worse, so

441
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:15,600
Speaker 5: that's bad. So I'm ruined. Kirk Cousins out Joe Burrow,

442
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 5: I think makes more sense is what's out is his

443
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 5: team worse.

444
00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:24,359
Speaker 2: You better believe it because we're gonna talk about the Jets.

445
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 4: Watch Yes, this, I know where you're going with this,

446
00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 4: but man, you are in on the jem the Falcon.

447
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:32,360
Speaker 4: If the Falcons have loaded up Brandon like they've got,

448
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:34,440
Speaker 4: they've finally got a guy who can throw the ball.

449
00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 3: I understand the concern, but.

450
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 5: I think the Falcons are are five hundred team in

451
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:38,400
Speaker 5: a bad.

452
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,720
Speaker 3: Division, the same wind total. They both have nine and

453
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 3: a half win totals.

454
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:44,159
Speaker 5: That's We're gonna make a lot of money off of it.

455
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 5: Brandon all Right, Burrow half injury. Wrist injury like these

456
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 5: are not as exciting injuries to come back from.

457
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 2: And this is a narrative award.

458
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 5: It matters that you're coming back from a wrist ligament injury.

459
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 5: Here's the thing, Joe Burrow one Comeback Player the Year

460
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 5: in twenty twenty one. We don't get repeat winners here.

461
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 5: We have one ever, Chad Pennington. I was ready to

462
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,679
Speaker 5: go Rogers Burrow together here. I think Burroll's not going

463
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 5: to win this the second time he came back from

464
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:13,840
Speaker 5: a bigger injury before. I think it's Rogers look forty

465
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 5: year old coming off an achilles stare playing in the

466
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 5: New York media hype on a playoff contender. Come on, like,

467
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:21,840
Speaker 5: what easier comeback player of the year can you get

468
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 5: than that? Plus two hundred? I think he's the pick here. However,

469
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 5: this will not be the last to hear from me

470
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 5: on Aaron Rodgers on this podcast.

471
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:34,160
Speaker 4: A quick reminder, if you aren't an Action Pro subscriber,

472
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,640
Speaker 4: you are missing out. Find the best values in NFL

473
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,119
Speaker 4: player props plus spread in total projection edges from Sean

474
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:45,600
Speaker 4: Kerner and his entire Action Analytics team. Plus this season

475
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 4: only pro subscribers get expert pick alerts in real time

476
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:52,679
Speaker 4: from our team of experts, including our own Brandon Anderson,

477
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:56,159
Speaker 4: who's here, Stucky, Chris Raybond, and the whole crew.

478
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:57,159
Speaker 3: Across every sport.

479
00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 4: Go to actionnetwork dot com slash pricing right now and

480
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 4: use the promo Code Pod twenty Pod two zero to

481
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 4: get twenty dollars off your pro subscription, or just follow

482
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 4: the link in this episode description. It will take you

483
00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 4: right there all right on to Offensive Player of the Year.

484
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 4: Spend a couple minutes on the background a last year

485
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:20,879
Speaker 4: Joe Galant, who did this pod with us, he's the

486
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 4: touchdown better he did our exotics pod with us going

487
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 4: back to last week. He actually nailed two of these

488
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,159
Speaker 4: the last two years. He had Christian McCaffrey last year

489
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 4: at fourteen to one and Justin Jefferson going back to

490
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 4: twenty twenty two at fifteen to one. So Brandon, give

491
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:41,120
Speaker 4: us the profile on who wins Offensive.

492
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:42,479
Speaker 3: Player of the Year. Gets a little tricky, right, It's

493
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 3: not just quarterback per se.

494
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 5: It's definitely not just quarterback. It actually has kind of

495
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 5: filtered through the positions. We'll come back to that. But

496
00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 5: really what you want here is just outlier stats with

497
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,439
Speaker 5: one exception. You need crazy outlier stats, but you need

498
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 5: to win too, which I think is important here. So

499
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 5: the stats quarterbacks last decade average of forty six hundred

500
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,399
Speaker 5: yards forty four touchdowns for Offensive Player of the Year.

501
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 2: We are not talking.

502
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,479
Speaker 5: About a good season this is like you won your

503
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 5: fantasy league because this guy's on your team. Sort of

504
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 5: season running back last ten years, if you won two

505
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 5: thousand scrimmage yards fourteen touchdowns, that's the average receivers, here's

506
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 5: your average season, one hundred and forty catches, eighteen hundred yards,

507
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 5: eleven scores. So I don't love to bet this one preseason.

508
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,879
Speaker 5: Right now we're shooting at nothing, like, how do I

509
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 5: know what the outlier stats are for these guys until

510
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 5: we start getting some stats. So I have a few

511
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 5: guys here, But to me, this is one to bet

512
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 5: a little safer on and play and add more to later.

513
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 5: So just setting up that way. In one note too,

514
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 5: so I mentioned the winners ten straight Offensive Player of

515
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 5: the Years have won ten games or more all but

516
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,880
Speaker 5: one eleven games are more, averaging twelve wins. So it's

517
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 5: not just amazing stats. You do have to win. Now,

518
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 5: those things make sense together. If you're that good or

519
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:01,160
Speaker 5: putting up these sort of num is, you're probably gonna

520
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 5: win some games too. But I think it's important to

521
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 5: marry the crazy stats but also with the winner. And

522
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 5: then the last thing is we often talk about this

523
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 5: award like, oh, well, whoever doesn't win MVP. This is

524
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 5: a consolation prize for them. That's not necessarily true for quarterbacks.

525
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 5: The last four Offensive Player of the Year quarterbacks also

526
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 5: won MVP, so this is not necessarily like, well, who

527
00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:27,840
Speaker 5: could win MVP but not quite, so I'll give them

528
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 5: this award maybe running back and receiver. To me, this

529
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 5: award has become quarterbacks are winning our for MVPs. Let's

530
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,359
Speaker 5: let a running back or receiver be the Offensive Player

531
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 5: of the Year. And I think that's where we look

532
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:40,400
Speaker 5: here now.

533
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, it feels a lot like how Netflix comes out

534
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 4: with quarterback and then the receivers are like.

535
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 3: We matter too, so give us our own show. And

536
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 3: that's what this kind of award feels like. It's kind

537
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 3: of the same thing.

538
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 4: All right, Sure, we'll give you the receiver doc and

539
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,639
Speaker 4: we'll talk about all you you divas and all the

540
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 4: prep you put into it.

541
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 3: It actually wasn't really compelling TV show, to be honest, Okay,

542
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 3: So here's what we're working with here.

543
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 4: As far as a field is concerned, Tyreek Hill is

544
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 4: your favorite at plus seven to fifty. McCaffrey down to

545
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 4: plus nine to fifty in comparison. No, I know, injury concerns,

546
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 4: but getting a fourteen to one price last year pretty good.

547
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 3: Newly paid Ceedee Lamb eleven to one.

548
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 4: Jamar Chase who knows is he asking for a contract soon?

549
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 4: Twelve to one, Justin Jefferson twelve to one, Bijon Robinson

550
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 4: at sixteen to one, new offensive scheme, Robin Ross Saint

551
00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 4: Browns sixteen to one, Brice Hall's sixteen to one. There's

552
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 4: a whole lot jumbled there. There's a lot of similar pricing.

553
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 3: So who emerges? Are we gonna get one pick? Two picks?

554
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:38,920
Speaker 3: What do you got?

555
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 5: So let me first start by I got Jill's pick

556
00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 5: for you here. He's our two time defending champ. He's

557
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 5: beating me both years on this one, so I'm gonna

558
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,440
Speaker 5: give his pick out for him. Jamar Chase twelve to one.

559
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 5: That's his pick here, that's not mine.

560
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 2: I like it.

561
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,640
Speaker 5: He can have a big season. I don't want McCaffrey

562
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 5: or Justin Jefferson. We have not had a repeat winner

563
00:26:57,840 --> 00:26:59,880
Speaker 5: on this award, and I don't mean like back to back,

564
00:26:59,920 --> 00:27:03,120
Speaker 5: I mean ever winning a second time since Marshall fall

565
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,359
Speaker 5: two thousand and one. Jefferson one already, mccaffree one already.

566
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 2: Again.

567
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 5: The whole point is crazy outlier stats. Once you do

568
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 5: it once, it's not outlier anymore. You gotta just be

569
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 5: that awesome again. So I'm ruling them out. I'm gonna

570
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 5: rule out Bajon and Breeze. I don't want a running

571
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 5: back here. I'd rather have Bijon than Breese Hall. Running

572
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 5: backs one ninety six to two thousand and three every

573
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,879
Speaker 5: single year, then the next decade, seven out of the

574
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 5: ten went to quarterbacks.

575
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:28,919
Speaker 2: I think it's a receiver's award.

576
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 5: Now three of our last five winners here have been

577
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 5: receivers after no receivers since Jerry Rice nineteen ninety three.

578
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:37,399
Speaker 5: So I've ruled out most of the names. I have

579
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 5: two receivers left. It's kind of chalky. But again, Jill's

580
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,440
Speaker 5: beating me here. I gotta catch up. I'm gonna play

581
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 5: two receivers here. I'm gonna play his guy, Ceedee Lamb,

582
00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 5: who had one hundred and forty catches seventeen hundred fifty

583
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:51,640
Speaker 5: yards last year. And if you just start a week

584
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 5: six forward and pace out over the season, when he

585
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 5: kind of made that leap mid season, he paces to

586
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 5: almost two thousand yards on one hundred and fifty six catches.

587
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 5: He scored a touchdown at least once in nine of

588
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 5: the last eleven games. He would be my one pick

589
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 5: if I had to make one, but I can't not

590
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 5: include Tyreek Hill. My man is seventeen hundred yards two

591
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 5: straight years Miami is my number one offense. Tyreek has

592
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 5: been Top four Offensive Player of the Year twice already.

593
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 5: I frankly think Tyreek should have won one already, and

594
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 5: I kind of think CD should have won it last year.

595
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 5: So I just had to pick the guys that knowing

596
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 5: to produce and haven't won this yet. Tyreek plus seven

597
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 5: to fifty, CD plus eleven hundred. I play those two together.

598
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 5: I give them at plus four hundred, So I think

599
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 5: that's a good position to start here. Gives me some

600
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,480
Speaker 5: options to have almost certainly one guy in the mix,

601
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 5: and then we can add on.

602
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 2: A little bit later.

603
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 5: And I got a couple of long shots as well.

604
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 4: I love those two as well, because I think the

605
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 4: perception too is as you've hit on like, perception matters,

606
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 4: what are the voters thinking. I think these two particular players,

607
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 4: Hill and Lamb elevate the quarterback now Hill more so

608
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 4: than Lamb because I think there's a general respect for

609
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 4: Dak Prescott since he was drafted fourth round pick has

610
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 4: worn that star in the helmet pretty respectively. Considering the

611
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 4: side show that is the Dallas Cowboys oftentimes off the field,

612
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 4: but newly paid. And also you mentioned it, you want

613
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 4: to be on a winning team. These teams are in

614
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 4: that nine and a half ten and a half win

615
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 4: range where you're gonna be in the hunt and being

616
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 4: you're gonna be an impact games against really good you know, Dak,

617
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 4: Dak and CD have to play against Philadelphia.

618
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 3: Those are often national TV spots for sure.

619
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 4: And then also of course the AFC East with the

620
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 4: Jets and the Bills, that's the competition for Miami.

621
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 3: So I like the I like those.

622
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 4: Two looks for sure, Tyreek being the favorite in ceedee

623
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 4: lamb now happy and paid.

624
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:46,239
Speaker 3: Long shots. Please, what do you got?

625
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 2: Player of the year, A couple of guys for offensive

626
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 2: play the year? Long shot?

627
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 5: Another Jet here for you. I think Breis Hall is

628
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 5: the wrong Jet to be favored. I like Garrett Wilson

629
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 5: better thirty to one for Garrett Wilson. Aaron Rodgers loves

630
00:29:57,720 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 5: to lock onto his guy, and I think his guys

631
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 5: can be get Wilson, which you saw it in the

632
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 5: preseason last year. They had pretty good chemistry. They had

633
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 5: a nice back shoulder touchdown. DeVante Adams his last season

634
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,479
Speaker 5: with Aaron Rodgers one hundred and twenty three catches, fifteen

635
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 5: hundred and fifty yards and eleven scores. The year before that,

636
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 5: eighteen scores. We've seen in Aaron Rodgers receiver. He put

637
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 5: up huge numbers. I like that one and in that division.

638
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 5: I like a Chan at Miami. I think he is

639
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 5: a fantasy league winner this year. Potentially. This guy averaged

640
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 5: seven point eight yards of carry as a rookie, So

641
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 5: even if that drops to a more normal number, you're

642
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 5: going to get like thirteen carries a game, six and

643
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 5: a half yards a carry. You get to thirteen hundred

644
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 5: plus yards. You add some receiving yards. He's a dual

645
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 5: threat and you can get some touchdowns. You can bust

646
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 5: along play if you're going way off the board sixty

647
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 5: to one. He's my favorite super long shot here for

648
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 5: just a possible league winner type guy.

649
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:53,239
Speaker 3: I love that dude. A Chan.

650
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 4: I think most Hurt's got injury history as well. A

651
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 4: Chan definitely got some work early in the season. Love

652
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 4: that look as well at sixty to one excellent. There's

653
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 4: your offensive Player of the Year. Breakdown on to Defensive

654
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 4: Player of the Year. We'll spend a couple minutes on

655
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 4: this last season, this very episode, same time of year,

656
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 4: we recorded Brandon hit on Miles Garrett at plus eight

657
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 4: hundred as one of three players that he played last year.

658
00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:20,200
Speaker 3: So you hit on Garrett.

659
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 4: I'm curious who your darlings might be this year, But

660
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 4: first let's get the profile.

661
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 2: Yeah.

662
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 5: So again, defense, you'll want the favorites. This is the

663
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 5: most predictable NFL award I think. And you want pass rushers.

664
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 5: Eight of our last ten defensive Player of the Years

665
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 5: had eleven sacks or more. So that is a pretty

666
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 5: high bar average at sixteen and a half sacks for

667
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 5: those guys. You want guys that have been here before.

668
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:46,719
Speaker 5: We want guys who are recognizable, Like guys don't come

669
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 5: out of nowhere and win this award. So six of

670
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 5: our last twelve winners, half of them got at least

671
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 5: one first place vote the year before. That's a very

672
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 5: narrow fear. This four guys. It's Miles Garrett, It's TJ. A. Watt,

673
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 5: It's Parsons in Dallas, and it's Deron Bland in Dallas,

674
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:03,240
Speaker 5: but he's out because he's injured right now, so it's

675
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 5: really three guys left there. Another thing too, ten straight

676
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 5: winners in this award have been anywhere between age twenty

677
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 5: five and twenty nine. The last guy thirty years or

678
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 5: older was Charles Woodson in two thousand and nine. So

679
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 5: thirty is a bad number, especially this year. Listen to

680
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 5: some guys who turned thirty this year. Chris Jones, an

681
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 5: incredible defender for the Chiefs, Danielle Hunter, big signing in Houston.

682
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 5: I've seen him given out for this award, Son Reddick

683
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 5: if he plays this season.

684
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 2: Accordingly TJ. Watt.

685
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 5: On the other end of the age spectrum, Adan Hutchinson

686
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 5: not quite in this age range, Jet Will Carter and

687
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 5: Jalen Carter. Sorry, Will Anderson and Jalen Carter not quite there.

688
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 5: So it's a pretty narrow field here. It's not necessarily

689
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 5: a team award. The guys over the last decade have

690
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 5: averaged eleventh in points per game defensively ninth in DVAA like,

691
00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 5: that's good, but it's not like you have to be

692
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 5: look in the NBA, you would it be in like

693
00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 5: a top three defense to win this award.

694
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 2: Not so the NFL. You just need a lot of sacks.

695
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 5: Really, they do all win nine games or more. Everyone

696
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 5: in the last decade has average eleven wins.

697
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 2: So does a team awarden that you need to win.

698
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 5: But mostly you just need to be a really good

699
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 5: defensive player that we all know exists, and then we

700
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 5: just pick you to win. Like this is how awards

701
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 5: should go, Brandon. We're like, who's the best defensive player? Hey,

702
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:22,240
Speaker 5: let's let's let you win the award. So that's why

703
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 5: I like this one. It's easier predict.

704
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it makes a lot of sense why TJ.

705
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 4: Watt's name is always here every freaking year because of

706
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 4: the Tomlin five hundred season thing that's been going on

707
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 4: for a while now. It's also just seeing all these

708
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 4: pass rushers at the top speaks to where the league

709
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 4: is and where the priorities lie. When you build your team,

710
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 4: whether it be the draft or free agency. You got

711
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 4: to get the quarterback right, got to get the line

712
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 4: play right, got to get weapons. Okay, defensively, let's go

713
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 4: get to the other quarterback and then we'll worry about

714
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 4: or about the secondary later because it's an offensive league now,

715
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 4: so we'll allow a receiver to have a big night,

716
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 4: can we get to the quarterback and throw them off

717
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 4: a step? So it makes sense why that's your historical context,

718
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 4: makes a lot of sense as to why these guys.

719
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 3: Always like t J. Watt, Miles Garrett at the top

720
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 3: of the board. They are, they are. Those two are

721
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 3: not the favorite though, MICHAELH.

722
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 4: Parsons your favorite at plus six hundred, Watt at plus

723
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 4: seven hundred, Garrett plus eight hundred, Max Crosby of the

724
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 4: Raiders at ten to one, and Nick Bosa ten to one.

725
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 3: So I full disclosure, folks. I see the doc.

726
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 4: I see how Brandon puts these in and then we

727
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 4: get this right before we start, and uh, explain this

728
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 4: to me how you're you're gonna go about picking this.

729
00:34:31,320 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, I need I need you to listen up closely,

730
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 5: dear listener, because this is my favorite pick on the podcast.

731
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 5: This is the one you need to bet. But it's complicated,

732
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 5: So I'm gonna I'm gonna lock you through it. So

733
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 5: start with those five guys, and I'm like, oh man,

734
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:47,879
Speaker 5: that's the right five. Even then mostly in the right

735
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 5: order like that how do we find how do we

736
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 5: find some advantage for us if these are the right

737
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:55,319
Speaker 5: five guys. Well, it turns out there is advantage on

738
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 5: all these guys because the odds are priced incorrectly because favorites.

739
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 5: When this award so last year, here's what we did

740
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 5: on the pod. You said that we've won with Miles Garrett.

741
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 5: That's true. I also gave out tg a Watt and

742
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 5: I gave out Micah Parsons. We bet all three of them.

743
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 5: Those three were ore bet. That was just those three.

744
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:16,840
Speaker 5: They finished first, second, and third.

745
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 2: It's so easy.

746
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 5: It's so easy to just pick the favorites on this award.

747
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 5: We bet a unit each. Garrett was plus eight hundred,

748
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 5: We finished plus six units. We're doing it again. Slight

749
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:31,320
Speaker 5: change here. There's five guys you just mentioned. Miles Garrett

750
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:33,839
Speaker 5: twelve sacks four years in a row. At least he's

751
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:37,439
Speaker 5: my number one defense defending winner. We love repeat winners here,

752
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 5: he's in. I need him. Micah Parsons. If I only

753
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 5: got one guy, he's probably the guy. Year four, age

754
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:46,719
Speaker 5: twenty five. That is a bullseye on this award. Top

755
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 5: three defensive player of the year all three seasons. He's

756
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 5: playing in the league. I gotta have him. Nick Bosa

757
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 5: fourteen point eight sacks a year the last three. He's

758
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 5: a little bit down last year, but I like Nick

759
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 5: Sorenson the new DC there. I want him in my position.

760
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:02,279
Speaker 5: He's a good age range. I need him.

761
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 2: TJ. Watt.

762
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 5: Now this is tricky. I mentioned him because he turned

763
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:07,239
Speaker 5: he turned thirty this year.

764
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 2: But TJ.

765
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 5: Wat has led the league in sacks three of the

766
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:11,959
Speaker 5: last four seasons, and he was hurt the other year.

767
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:14,840
Speaker 5: He averages a sack a game since his rookie season.

768
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 5: He's finished top three in this award four to five years.

769
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 5: He was hurt the other year. All time players get

770
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:22,800
Speaker 5: their own rules sometimes on these I need TJ.

771
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 2: Watt.

772
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,720
Speaker 5: I've got four guys already. I don't need Max Crosby. Sorry,

773
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 5: Raiders fans, I need wins. I don't need a bet

774
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 5: on the Raiders to win nine games and make the playoffs.

775
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 2: I just don't need them. They're the Raiders are my

776
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 2: twelve set, and they He seems.

777
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 4: More interested in having a cigar with Antonio Pierce after

778
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 4: winning their fourth game.

779
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:40,400
Speaker 2: Of the season in December.

780
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:43,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, great player, love him. But here's the position.

781
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 5: Brendan again, this is my favorite pick on the podcast.

782
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:48,840
Speaker 2: I'm taking four dudes.

783
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 5: I want Parsons and Watt and Garrett and Nick Bosa.

784
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,919
Speaker 5: I'm playing all four and to be clear, a full

785
00:36:57,040 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 5: unit or more if you like, on each one of

786
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:03,240
Speaker 5: these guys and playing all four together at implied odds

787
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 5: at the numbers is plus one fourteen.

788
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 2: So let me translate for you.

789
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 5: You're giving me Micah Parsons, TG A lot, Miles, Garrett,

790
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 5: and Nick Bosa. You get the field and I get

791
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:17,800
Speaker 5: plus odds. No, these four guys are like eighty or

792
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 5: ninety percent likely to win this award. I don't need

793
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 5: the field, I don't need Max Crosby, don't need any

794
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:23,440
Speaker 5: other guys.

795
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,759
Speaker 2: This, quite frankly, is how I am funding my.

796
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:30,840
Speaker 5: Other futures by just It's like it's like mutual funds.

797
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 5: Just put some money in, just like let it grow

798
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:34,839
Speaker 5: later on. One of these dudes is gonna stay healthy

799
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 5: enough to win. A couple others will contend.

800
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:37,280
Speaker 2: In the award.

801
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 5: This is the award that is the safest pick on

802
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 5: the draft. Parsons, what Garrett Bosa give me all four?

803
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:44,439
Speaker 5: Defensive Player of the Year.

804
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:45,360
Speaker 2: Love it.

805
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 4: That's that's great. That's great handicapping and a great explanation.

806
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 4: Four Brothers NFL Awards edition. That's right for Brandon Anderson

807
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 4: Defensive Player of the Year. Okay, this one might piss

808
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:58,279
Speaker 4: Brandon off because of what happened last year.

809
00:37:58,320 --> 00:37:59,000
Speaker 3: Coach of the Year.

810
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:03,800
Speaker 4: Brandon last season had Demiko Ryans. That was I forget

811
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 4: where I was. Definitely was doing something I shouldn't have

812
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 4: been doing, which was driving. I had a seatbelt on.

813
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 4: I have a little magnet in my car streaming the

814
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 4: NFL Awards because of will Anderson. But then I'm like,

815
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 4: wait a minute.

816
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 3: Brandon also gave out Demiko Ryans. We got a shot here.

817
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 3: He lost by one vote.

818
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 5: He tied Kevin Stefanski. They tied in totals, but he

819
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 5: lost the tiebreaker by.

820
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 2: A one vote.

821
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:29,239
Speaker 3: What was the tiebreaker?

822
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 2: Replace votes?

823
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 5: Defanski had one extra first place vote, Demiko had more

824
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:36,120
Speaker 5: votes overall and tied on the down ballot.

825
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:39,400
Speaker 1: Hey, this is producer Matt Mitchell. Just want to add

826
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:42,720
Speaker 1: I also am scarred for life by Ryan's not winning.

827
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 1: They did the dumbest tiebreaker. It only made it because

828
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,759
Speaker 1: somebody one guy voted. Sean McVay, Coach of the Year.

829
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 1: I'll just note that on the broadcast they rolled out

830
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:57,320
Speaker 1: the star of CBS's show Tracker, Justin Hartley to announce

831
00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 1: the award and add insult to injury. He didn't even

832
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:03,880
Speaker 1: say the guy's goddamn name correctly.

833
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:09,959
Speaker 3: And the AP Coach of the Year, presented by Verizon is.

834
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 2: Steven Stefanski. Kevin Stefanski.

835
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 5: Sorry we lost, but luck look we won Joe Flacco

836
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 5: Tour fifty to one, like minutes later, It's fine, I

837
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 5: was you. You are irresponsibly driving. I was responsibly not

838
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 5: watching the awards because my mom had open heart surgery

839
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:30,799
Speaker 5: that day, so I was sitting with her until my

840
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 5: phone started exploding with Demko responses and then Joe Flacco responses,

841
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 5: So it was it was a night for both of us.

842
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:38,439
Speaker 2: On that day.

843
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 5: It's fine, Demiko won us plenty of other stuff with

844
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:44,839
Speaker 5: Texans Island. We can let this one go, so give

845
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:48,359
Speaker 5: us the profile. Obviously, you need to win. You need

846
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 5: to average twelve wins over the last decade. You need

847
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 5: at least eleven. All but one had that many. But

848
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 5: this is a narrative award, so how do we build narrative?

849
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 5: You need to win more than last year and more

850
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 5: than expected so than last year. Last decade average improvement

851
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 5: from six point nine wins the previous year to twelve

852
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:09,480
Speaker 5: point one the following year. So at least or eight

853
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:11,840
Speaker 5: of the ten have won at least four more games.

854
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:14,279
Speaker 5: Seven of the ten started in that like seven to

855
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:16,919
Speaker 5: ten win range. So a team that was around five

856
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 5: hundred last year wins an average of five more games

857
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:22,440
Speaker 5: this season. Now you're in the playoffs, so that's the start.

858
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 5: But sometimes we know who that team is, so the

859
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 5: over under matters here. Also, these these coaches are averaging

860
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 5: beating their over under expectation by over four wins. Also

861
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:36,359
Speaker 5: since twenty ten. Now have to say the last two

862
00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 5: years in a row have broken this trend. Brian Gable

863
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:42,000
Speaker 5: only two wins over the total. Stefanski are a man

864
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:44,200
Speaker 5: who stole the award last year, only one point five

865
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,760
Speaker 5: with the total. Now, look he had narrative. They started

866
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 5: five different quarterbacks.

867
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 2: I get it.

868
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 5: But nine of our last ten here coaches of the

869
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 5: year started at the win total of seven and a

870
00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 5: half to nine and a half, A very narrow like

871
00:40:57,400 --> 00:41:00,759
Speaker 5: we think you're a five hundred team, Oh you're your

872
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:03,839
Speaker 5: a twelve win team. Congratulations, you're the coach of the Year.

873
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 5: And the last thing, we love our first year coaches.

874
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 5: Four of our seven winners, our first year guys six

875
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,959
Speaker 5: of the last thirteen, around fifty percent, and we only

876
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 5: have like six or seven first year coaches, I think,

877
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:17,839
Speaker 5: so that helps to narrow the field as well. Very

878
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 5: open field here for this award.

879
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, so Jim Harbaugh is the favorite. He wouldn't be

880
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:25,280
Speaker 4: considered a first year coach. It's first year in Los Angeles.

881
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 5: Is first year on a new team, is what I

882
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:30,359
Speaker 5: mean by that. So that's good call out.

883
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 3: Okay, very good.

884
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, that makes sense, first year on a new team

885
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 4: because it's right starting fresh. Can you can you get

886
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:36,879
Speaker 4: this thing back on the track.

887
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 3: That makes sense?

888
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:40,319
Speaker 4: And I guess that kind of alludes to, like, like

889
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:43,239
Speaker 4: Dan Quinn was a head coach in Atlanta, right and

890
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 4: coordinator job a couple of years now he's the headman

891
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 4: in Washington.

892
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 3: Just using another example.

893
00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:51,799
Speaker 4: Matti Eberfluss of the Chicago Bears, very public guy these

894
00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:55,720
Speaker 4: days with the new fresh haircut, hard knocks Bears. Raheem

895
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 4: Morris in Atlanta at twelve to one, Matt Lafleur in

896
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 4: Green Bay at thirteen to one. Demiko Ryans is there,

897
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:06,919
Speaker 4: Shane Steichen at fourteen to one. Sore you go there,

898
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 4: you they're your favorites. So Harbaugh and Eberflus both at

899
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:14,799
Speaker 4: ten to one. Brandon's pick for coach of the Year

900
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:15,800
Speaker 4: for this year is who.

901
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:18,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I'm gonna rule out a couple of guys

902
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:20,080
Speaker 5: for you. Just help direct where you're looking. This is

903
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:22,480
Speaker 5: a tough one, right, we got thirty options. I don't

904
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:25,280
Speaker 5: need Eberflus. If the Bears are good, just back Caleb Williams.

905
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 5: I know it's a short number. I no, we said

906
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:28,319
Speaker 5: not to you. But if the Bears are good, he's

907
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 5: who wins an award. Don't bet to Miko. I know

908
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 5: everybody loves the Texas this year.

909
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 3: Real quick, real quick, I know.

910
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 4: Just to just to piggyback off your point there, Iberflus

911
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:41,120
Speaker 4: is the defensive mind on that staff. I think offensive

912
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:44,839
Speaker 4: coaches matter too, pending when you're comparing markets. Right, if

913
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 4: Caleb Williams is good, they're gonna give credit to Waldron

914
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 4: and the offensive staff.

915
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 3: And eber Flus is more and more so of a

916
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:51,399
Speaker 3: passenger in their deal.

917
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:54,920
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I agree with that generally, except I

918
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 5: would also argue that Stefanski just won because his defense

919
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:00,399
Speaker 5: led by Jim Schwartz one on the award year ago.

920
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 5: So I'm a little still stung by that one.

921
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:03,959
Speaker 3: And Stroud and CJ.

922
00:43:04,080 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 4: Straub is really good last year, and I think Demiko

923
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 4: Ryans is gonna give You're gonna get some credit for

924
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:09,960
Speaker 4: that to having the right program enough.

925
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,279
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's a good point, but I'm going

926
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 5: to careful with this is not a year for Demiko.

927
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:16,760
Speaker 5: They won ten games, their wintal is nine and a half.

928
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:18,920
Speaker 5: The bar is too high that the odds are not

929
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:22,719
Speaker 5: reflecting where Houston is at here. Dan Campbell too good.

930
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:24,839
Speaker 5: You can't bet a team that already has a win

931
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 5: totll ten and a half or better. That's not the

932
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 5: way to go. This is not just who's the best

933
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:30,400
Speaker 5: coach like defensive player.

934
00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:32,719
Speaker 2: That's not it. You need narrative, you need a first

935
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 2: year My guy.

936
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:37,360
Speaker 5: I have one pick here. It's Mike McDonald from Seattle

937
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 5: fourteen to one. We've talked about Seattle, we talked with

938
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:43,759
Speaker 5: him on our previous podcast. I love everything about what

939
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:46,920
Speaker 5: this team is doing. This is my number five defense

940
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:51,319
Speaker 5: heading into the season. I think McDonald is gonna unleash Witherspoon,

941
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 5: the sophomore cornerback. I think he's gonna be the Cal

942
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 5: Hamilton for this team. McDonald's been great, specifically scheming against

943
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 5: McVay and shanahanstyle offenses.

944
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 2: That's the division.

945
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:03,839
Speaker 5: I think that's why Seattle went out and got him.

946
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:06,799
Speaker 5: I love Dodson and Baker, the linebackers they brought in.

947
00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:08,399
Speaker 5: I think that that's going to be big for them.

948
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 5: The way that he had Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen.

949
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:12,759
Speaker 5: I think those guys are going to try to be

950
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:15,239
Speaker 5: something similar to that. I love the offense too. We

951
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:18,600
Speaker 5: get Ryan Grubb also, the offensive coach coming up from Washington.

952
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 5: I love all that sets up for Gino bombing of

953
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:24,319
Speaker 5: the receivers. Now, they did win nine games last year.

954
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:26,680
Speaker 5: It's tough to replace a legend and Pete Carroll, but

955
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,080
Speaker 5: that also gives us some narrative boosts. The win total

956
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:31,719
Speaker 5: is seven and a half. That's right, that's the spot

957
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,680
Speaker 5: I like here. I'm also get a spot to fade

958
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:37,080
Speaker 5: the Rams. We talked about them. Maybe a chance to

959
00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:39,040
Speaker 5: fade the Niners a little bit with a lot of

960
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:41,839
Speaker 5: just little things trickling in the injuries starting to pile up.

961
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 5: I like Seattle. I think this is a great way

962
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 5: to bet on the Seahawks this year to win maybe

963
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:50,400
Speaker 5: twelve or more games. So Mike McDonald fourteen to one

964
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 5: would be my pick here.

965
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, But I think just just I'm trying to make

966
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:57,560
Speaker 4: sense of your your profile, right, because the fact that

967
00:44:58,040 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 4: they won nine game doesn't that not matter because Carol

968
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:00,920
Speaker 4: not the guy anymore.

969
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:03,000
Speaker 3: So it's an open slate.

970
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 4: It's a new era, right for does that matter or

971
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:07,440
Speaker 4: liked mados now from Bill Belichick.

972
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 5: I mean it matters to me a thinking voter. It

973
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 5: does not matter to my blank slate profiles that are

974
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:18,240
Speaker 5: like nine wins, that's a little much. That's the only reason.

975
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 5: But you're right, it should be a blank slate, and

976
00:45:20,680 --> 00:45:24,440
Speaker 5: I think getting to that level again and batter hopefully

977
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 5: replacing a legend, that should be the narrative that we're

978
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 5: looking for. So I think you can play that to

979
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:31,520
Speaker 5: our favor. We just don't know if the voters will

980
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:32,799
Speaker 5: do it that way, right.

981
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 4: I think there's a lot of window of opportunity if

982
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:39,760
Speaker 4: you're in the same division as San Francisco and Los Angeles,

983
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 4: two very popular teams fan bases everywhere in McVeigh, the

984
00:45:45,280 --> 00:45:48,560
Speaker 4: kind of attention he's had at the national level, and

985
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 4: the Rams being in Los Angeles and the Niners just

986
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:52,880
Speaker 4: being in the mix the last half decade. You you

987
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 4: score a couple wins against those teams, that's gonna Intenna's

988
00:45:56,640 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 4: go off right, Antenna's start to pop up in Seattle.

989
00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:01,000
Speaker 2: Okay? Like it?

990
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:02,840
Speaker 3: And your long shot for this.

991
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:04,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, only a little bit longer.

992
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 5: This is actually a team I don't love, but I

993
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:07,759
Speaker 5: think it's a good way to bet them in case

994
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 5: I'm wrong. Brian Callahan of the Titans twenty five to one.

995
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 5: There's just a lot of avenues to go right here

996
00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 5: for the Titans. So they won six games last year,

997
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:20,839
Speaker 5: six point five win total. That is a bullseye. That's

998
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:23,400
Speaker 5: exactly the sort of team I'm looking for. Soft division,

999
00:46:23,960 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 5: easy window here for them to go things to go right,

1000
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:29,919
Speaker 5: win that division, just like the Texans did last year,

1001
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:33,040
Speaker 5: just like the Jaguars did the previous year. So I

1002
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:35,880
Speaker 5: don't love these things, but will love us. Not a

1003
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 5: quarterback I like, but I might be wrong. He might

1004
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:40,480
Speaker 5: be really good. He's got a huge arm. He also,

1005
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:43,000
Speaker 5: even though they lost Derrick Henry, I think it's a

1006
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:45,799
Speaker 5: better offense this year. They got in Calvin Ridley, they

1007
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 5: got Tyler Boyd. They brought in Tony Pollard, who's healthy now.

1008
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:50,399
Speaker 2: I think they gave him.

1009
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:53,440
Speaker 5: A lot of appears that spears dude behind good and

1010
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:57,920
Speaker 5: don't forget the bad offensive line. Brought in Brian Callahan's dad, Bill,

1011
00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:00,200
Speaker 5: the best O line coach in the league, which which

1012
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 5: I think also helps defense a lot. On defense, they

1013
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:06,120
Speaker 5: got a lot of dudes in Lagerius Snead from the Chiefs.

1014
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 5: They just traded for Ernest Jones from the Rams. I

1015
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:11,400
Speaker 5: don't know much about DENARDA. Wilson, the new coordinator, but

1016
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 5: he comes over from Baltimore. He's got a lot of

1017
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:16,320
Speaker 5: guys to work with on this unit that he picked.

1018
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:18,880
Speaker 5: They changed out a lot of names here. This is

1019
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 5: not a team I like. But sometimes, Brennan, look, I've

1020
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:23,759
Speaker 5: bet a lot of futures. Sometimes you have to say, well,

1021
00:47:23,800 --> 00:47:26,120
Speaker 5: what if I'm wrong? Like last year on this podcast,

1022
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:29,400
Speaker 5: I gave out Brock Party for MVP. I was not

1023
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 5: a brock pretty fan. I did not think he should be.

1024
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 2: In that award.

1025
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 5: But what if I'm wrong about San Francisco? How would

1026
00:47:35,640 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 5: I be wrong? How would that go? I think if

1027
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:40,839
Speaker 5: I'm wrong about Tennessee, a team I'm out on this year,

1028
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 5: this is a way to bet it and give myself

1029
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 5: kind of one out for them twenty five to one.

1030
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:48,719
Speaker 5: There's a lot of paths here where the Titans are

1031
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 5: the surprise team, and look, we're predicting a surprise. You

1032
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:53,600
Speaker 5: might want to give yourself a few options. Surprises are

1033
00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:54,800
Speaker 5: surprising for a reason.

1034
00:47:55,600 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 4: Quick announcement are free. Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars

1035
00:47:59,600 --> 00:48:02,640
Speaker 4: Pro FI Football Pick Them Contest is officially back if

1036
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:05,239
Speaker 4: you're new here. Last season, our friends over at the

1037
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:08,880
Speaker 4: Favorites Pod ran a totally free NFL pick Them contest

1038
00:48:09,239 --> 00:48:11,320
Speaker 4: every week five picks against the spread.

1039
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:13,120
Speaker 3: We were awarded over.

1040
00:48:13,040 --> 00:48:16,240
Speaker 4: One hundred thousand dollars in cash prizes to our listeners,

1041
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:20,080
Speaker 4: including a first place prize of forty k. This season,

1042
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:22,799
Speaker 4: we're running at back Baby, same website, sign up at

1043
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 4: Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com, very same structure, totally free

1044
00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 4: to play five picks each week Monday Night Football serves

1045
00:48:31,200 --> 00:48:35,520
Speaker 4: as a tiebreaker, same season long prizes. Top ten finishers

1046
00:48:35,520 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 4: get paid. First place is forty thousand dollars thousands in

1047
00:48:39,800 --> 00:48:43,000
Speaker 4: cash up for grabs every week. Is there a catch? No,

1048
00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:47,800
Speaker 4: you have nothing to lose. Sign up at Favorites dot actionnetwork,

1049
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:51,360
Speaker 4: dot com our final Award MVP.

1050
00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 2: So obviously we need a quarterback. We had a quarterback

1051
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:57,520
Speaker 2: winner with good stats. That's it. We know what this is.

1052
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:00,759
Speaker 5: Sixteen to the last seventeen our quarterback. So you need

1053
00:49:00,760 --> 00:49:03,360
Speaker 5: a quarterback here. I don't even look at any other position.

1054
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 5: It is a team accomplishment. Thirteen out of those sixteen

1055
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 5: quarterbacks were one seeds. All but one of them were

1056
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:15,600
Speaker 5: top two seed. Those quarterbacks have averaged fourteen win pace

1057
00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:20,000
Speaker 5: and at least thirteen wins for twelve out of the sixteen,

1058
00:49:20,239 --> 00:49:23,520
Speaker 5: and that's before the seventeen game up. Also, so it's

1059
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 5: a big number. You got to win a lot of games.

1060
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:28,880
Speaker 5: You're averaging about forty four hundred passing yards, about forty

1061
00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:32,879
Speaker 5: touchdowns including rushing. That matters because Lamar Jackson and Cam

1062
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 5: Newton in there.

1063
00:49:34,080 --> 00:49:36,719
Speaker 2: We love repeat winners, not back to back.

1064
00:49:36,800 --> 00:49:38,560
Speaker 5: We don't do a lot of back to back. But

1065
00:49:38,680 --> 00:49:44,880
Speaker 5: Brennan seventeen MVPs from quarterback. Fourteen of those seventeen in

1066
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:48,320
Speaker 5: our most recent group has been five dudes. Aaron Rodgers,

1067
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:51,960
Speaker 5: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Pat Mahomes, Lamar Jackson. Those five

1068
00:49:52,080 --> 00:49:56,040
Speaker 5: dudes have been MVP fourteen of the last seventeen seasons.

1069
00:49:56,239 --> 00:49:58,839
Speaker 5: We love to give to the same guys because guess what,

1070
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:02,520
Speaker 5: that's why they're so valid. So that's what we're looking

1071
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:05,920
Speaker 5: at here in season. Keep an eye of the advanced metrics,

1072
00:50:06,200 --> 00:50:09,279
Speaker 5: top two EPA nine of the last eleven winners, top

1073
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 5: to EPA, and completion over expected nine to last eleven. Now, look,

1074
00:50:13,120 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 5: I have to comment briefly here. I am tweeting Lamar

1075
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:19,320
Speaker 5: Jackson last year as an outlier to my system.

1076
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:20,040
Speaker 2: He did not.

1077
00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 5: Fit the profile. I have thoughts. You can read my

1078
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:25,520
Speaker 5: tweets about them. I think it was a flawed field.

1079
00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:28,600
Speaker 5: Lamar was missing some of the numbers and the advanced metrics.

1080
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 5: Josh Allen had the interceptions that problem, and he didn't

1081
00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:35,279
Speaker 5: get enough wins. Dak Prescott not quite enough wins and

1082
00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:38,480
Speaker 5: failed in the marquee spots. Brock Purty we just kind

1083
00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:42,040
Speaker 5: of shrugged off because of Cale Shanahan. There wasn't really

1084
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 5: a strong choice. I think actually Lamar was kind of

1085
00:50:45,120 --> 00:50:47,759
Speaker 5: the laziest choice on the board. He is the quarterback

1086
00:50:48,040 --> 00:50:51,480
Speaker 5: of the only thirteen win team that really does fit

1087
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:54,320
Speaker 5: the profile. We took a quarterback from the best team,

1088
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 5: so that's the setup. Patrick Mahomes is the obvious favorite here,

1089
00:50:59,600 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 5: and if you want to just be done, just pet

1090
00:51:02,520 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 5: patdor Mahomes. That's fine. I'm good with that. Best player,

1091
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 5: best team. He's my number one overall seed. You got

1092
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:12,560
Speaker 5: better receivers. He's the right favorite. I think this is

1093
00:51:12,680 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 5: double what his price should be. I think you want

1094
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:18,600
Speaker 5: Mahomes in your portfolio. It easily makes sense. Now last

1095
00:51:18,680 --> 00:51:20,440
Speaker 5: year was the worst year of his career in the

1096
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:25,080
Speaker 5: regular season. Maybe that was just bad receivers. Maybe Travis Kelsey's.

1097
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 2: Falling off a little bit.

1098
00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 5: Maybe they missed Eric b Enemy a little bit. I

1099
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:32,239
Speaker 5: will say this about Mahomes. They start Baltimore, then Cincinnati.

1100
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:35,399
Speaker 5: They're breaking in a new left tackle. I don't think

1101
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:38,760
Speaker 5: I need this now with MVP. We got a long season.

1102
00:51:39,120 --> 00:51:42,160
Speaker 5: The narratives will fly. I think you'll want Mahomes in

1103
00:51:42,200 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 5: your portfolio if you're building it. If you want to

1104
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:46,040
Speaker 5: make one bet now, well never bet again. He might

1105
00:51:46,080 --> 00:51:48,279
Speaker 5: be your guy. But I don't need the plus five

1106
00:51:48,360 --> 00:51:49,160
Speaker 5: hundred right now.

1107
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 3: Could call up that's good call out with the schedule

1108
00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:55,359
Speaker 3: earlier in the year. I'm just gonna say something.

1109
00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:58,320
Speaker 4: It almost feels like with this award two for quarterbacks,

1110
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 4: as you mentioned eleven of the previous eleven of sixteen

1111
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:04,439
Speaker 4: had won previously, it's almost like you're encapsulating it as

1112
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 4: a quarterback comeback player of the meaning like, hey, it's kind.

1113
00:52:10,360 --> 00:52:12,000
Speaker 3: Of get some parallels to NBA MVP.

1114
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:15,160
Speaker 4: I guess you've got to be at the top, top tier,

1115
00:52:15,200 --> 00:52:16,279
Speaker 4: but that doesn't mean you suck.

1116
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:17,160
Speaker 3: You just might not be.

1117
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:19,520
Speaker 4: You could be the fifth best guy that year, but

1118
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:22,440
Speaker 4: and have outstanding numbers. And the other thing too. You

1119
00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 4: mentioned laziness as it pertains to last year. Perty and

1120
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:29,719
Speaker 4: Jackson went head to head on Christmas Big Spot and

1121
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:32,960
Speaker 4: Purty fell on his face. Right, he threw a ton

1122
00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:35,560
Speaker 4: of picks and that made it. Now did Jackson play great?

1123
00:52:35,600 --> 00:52:35,719
Speaker 2: Now?

1124
00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 4: He got short fields and it worked out well because

1125
00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:40,160
Speaker 4: the Ravens defense bawled out. Kind of made it easy

1126
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:42,120
Speaker 4: I think for folks to say, well, party was that

1127
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:44,960
Speaker 4: bad that we're just going to elevate Jackson if that

1128
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:47,719
Speaker 4: makes sense. Okay, next here, so as you nail you

1129
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:51,239
Speaker 4: as you map this out, Alan Stroud Burrow or your

1130
00:52:51,239 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 4: next three guys all in the AFC, so I think

1131
00:52:54,160 --> 00:52:57,720
Speaker 4: it's four AFC quarterbacks are your favorites in this market.

1132
00:52:57,880 --> 00:53:00,920
Speaker 4: There's a drop off from Mahomes to Allen Stroud Burrow,

1133
00:53:01,239 --> 00:53:03,600
Speaker 4: and then it's NFC guys Hurts at fourteen to one,

1134
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:06,520
Speaker 4: Jordan Love fifteen to one, Brock Purty sixteen to one,

1135
00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:09,600
Speaker 4: and then you've got guys in that plus two thousand

1136
00:53:09,680 --> 00:53:14,880
Speaker 4: to plus three thousand Range, Lamar Dak, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Tua,

1137
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:17,279
Speaker 4: Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford.

1138
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:19,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're you landing for.

1139
00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:20,040
Speaker 3: Your pick here.

1140
00:53:20,239 --> 00:53:22,080
Speaker 5: So I'm gonna just talk through these tiers a little bit.

1141
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:24,879
Speaker 5: That first year, Alan Stroud Burrow is all about nine

1142
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 5: or ten to one odds. I think Josh Allen those

1143
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 5: odds are fine. I think you can bet Josh Allen.

1144
00:53:29,719 --> 00:53:32,600
Speaker 5: He is my number two quarterback. There's a really obvious

1145
00:53:32,680 --> 00:53:36,480
Speaker 5: narrative Stefan Diggs is gone. We got nobody left. It's

1146
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:40,040
Speaker 5: just Josh Allen doing everything. Top two fantasy quarterback four

1147
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 5: years in a row. The problem is the interceptions fifteen eighteen,

1148
00:53:44,080 --> 00:53:46,279
Speaker 5: fourteen in the last three years, and he always has a

1149
00:53:46,280 --> 00:53:48,040
Speaker 5: few of those clunker games. You get the wrong one

1150
00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:48,719
Speaker 5: at the wrong time.

1151
00:53:48,760 --> 00:53:49,279
Speaker 2: We saw what.

1152
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:51,799
Speaker 5: Happened last year to Dak and the Party. I think

1153
00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:54,560
Speaker 5: you want Josh Allen in your portfolio, but I think

1154
00:53:54,560 --> 00:53:57,400
Speaker 5: you wait. Here's the schedule starting out first six games.

1155
00:53:57,719 --> 00:54:01,320
Speaker 5: He goes at Miami, at Baltimore, the Jets, and plays

1156
00:54:01,320 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 5: the Texans in that stretch. I think you wait, you

1157
00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:06,000
Speaker 5: get him later. But I do like the pick here.

1158
00:54:06,000 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 5: I do think there are value to the odds here.

1159
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:10,640
Speaker 5: I have them about fifteen percent. We're implied ten percent.

1160
00:54:10,680 --> 00:54:14,319
Speaker 5: Now in that tier with Josh Allen is Joe Burrow

1161
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:14,680
Speaker 5: and CJ.

1162
00:54:14,760 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 2: Stroud. I don't mind Burrow. I think his odds are

1163
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:18,440
Speaker 2: a little inflated. CJ.

1164
00:54:18,560 --> 00:54:22,280
Speaker 5: Stroud is the worst bet you can make on the board.

1165
00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:22,760
Speaker 2: CJ.

1166
00:54:22,880 --> 00:54:25,720
Speaker 5: Stroud ten to one is a terrible bet. The defensive

1167
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:27,879
Speaker 5: line is not good. They're overcommitted to the run game.

1168
00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:30,719
Speaker 5: I think defenses will adjust and take away the deep

1169
00:54:30,719 --> 00:54:33,880
Speaker 5: ball and force Stroud to go short and beat them

1170
00:54:33,920 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 5: under pressure, two things he has not been good at.

1171
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:38,920
Speaker 5: And I think Houston has one of the toughest schedules

1172
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 5: in the league. They threw the AFCs this year. That's

1173
00:54:41,600 --> 00:54:45,440
Speaker 5: Dolphins and Jets, and Bills. They do the NFC North

1174
00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:49,359
Speaker 5: four good teams and compared to the division, every team

1175
00:54:49,400 --> 00:54:51,360
Speaker 5: gets three games that are different than everyone else in

1176
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:53,920
Speaker 5: the division. Here are the three games. The Texans got

1177
00:54:54,120 --> 00:54:57,440
Speaker 5: the Chiefs and the Ravens, the other ones division winners,

1178
00:54:57,719 --> 00:55:00,839
Speaker 5: and then their NFC division is the cow Boys, so

1179
00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:03,880
Speaker 5: they're three variable games. Are Chiefs, Ravens Cowboys? That is

1180
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:07,680
Speaker 5: a rough draw. Do not bet CJ. Stroud. Those are

1181
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:12,439
Speaker 5: soccer odds. Hurts, Love, Purty the top NFC guys. Look,

1182
00:55:12,800 --> 00:55:14,759
Speaker 5: Hurts had his chance two years ago. Perty has his

1183
00:55:14,880 --> 00:55:17,760
Speaker 5: chance last year. History says, if you are like second

1184
00:55:17,840 --> 00:55:21,279
Speaker 5: or third in the odds one year, that's it. You

1185
00:55:21,320 --> 00:55:23,520
Speaker 5: had your shot, you had your outlayer year. You probably

1186
00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:25,160
Speaker 5: don't get there again. So I can't get there. I

1187
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:28,160
Speaker 5: would rather pick Jordan Love than these guys. He is

1188
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:31,600
Speaker 5: my fourth most likely guy that doesn't even show value

1189
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:33,800
Speaker 5: here for me at plus fifteen hundred, because I think

1190
00:55:34,120 --> 00:55:36,440
Speaker 5: MVP is a top heavy field, even though it's not.

1191
00:55:36,440 --> 00:55:37,919
Speaker 2: Priced that way necessarily.

1192
00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:41,279
Speaker 5: Jordan Love last year from week eleven forward six and

1193
00:55:41,320 --> 00:55:44,959
Speaker 5: two record on pace for forty six hundred yards, thirty

1194
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:48,600
Speaker 5: eight touchdowns, two picks. Here's the numbers for Aaron Rodgers

1195
00:55:48,680 --> 00:55:52,240
Speaker 5: in Green Bay last MVP season forty one hundred thirty

1196
00:55:52,280 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 5: seven touchdowns, four picks. Jordan Love turned in Aaron Rodgers

1197
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:57,440
Speaker 5: with eight games to go last year. I think he's

1198
00:55:57,480 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 5: gonna win MVP.

1199
00:55:58,200 --> 00:55:58,840
Speaker 2: At some point.

1200
00:55:59,080 --> 00:56:01,960
Speaker 5: He was number two in the dvance metrics. I'm fine

1201
00:56:02,000 --> 00:56:04,440
Speaker 5: with him in your portfolio, but I am going to

1202
00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:07,040
Speaker 5: that next group down the board, and I got one

1203
00:56:07,120 --> 00:56:10,200
Speaker 5: guy for you this year. This is my favorite one

1204
00:56:10,239 --> 00:56:14,120
Speaker 5: guy pick of the podcast. I'm all in Aaron Rodgers

1205
00:56:14,360 --> 00:56:19,440
Speaker 5: MVP twenty five to one. The narrative is so obvious.

1206
00:56:19,600 --> 00:56:23,600
Speaker 5: Forty year old Aaron Rodgers coming off the Achilles leading

1207
00:56:23,640 --> 00:56:26,000
Speaker 5: the New York Jets back to the playoffs for the

1208
00:56:26,040 --> 00:56:29,880
Speaker 5: first time since twenty ten. Come on, it's just sitting

1209
00:56:29,920 --> 00:56:33,160
Speaker 5: there for us. We got two great weapons, Breisse and Garrett.

1210
00:56:33,560 --> 00:56:36,600
Speaker 5: He got a way improved offensive line from bottom seven

1211
00:56:36,600 --> 00:56:39,320
Speaker 5: to top seven that, frankly, he's going to get credit

1212
00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:42,520
Speaker 5: for because the quarterback gets credit for stuff. He already

1213
00:56:42,520 --> 00:56:45,160
Speaker 5: has an elite defense, he already has elite special teams,

1214
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:47,040
Speaker 5: so the rest of the team is going to help

1215
00:56:47,120 --> 00:56:50,439
Speaker 5: him win games. Team accomplishment, Brendan, the team has been good.

1216
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:53,840
Speaker 5: They just needed O line and quarterback. This is my

1217
00:56:54,160 --> 00:56:58,040
Speaker 5: number one roster in the NFL on paper. Now, on paper,

1218
00:56:58,280 --> 00:56:59,280
Speaker 5: you gotta stay healthy.

1219
00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:00,239
Speaker 2: We might not heal.

1220
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:02,120
Speaker 5: We got a lot of question marks here, but I

1221
00:57:02,160 --> 00:57:04,480
Speaker 5: have them just barely ahead of the Chiefs and the

1222
00:57:04,520 --> 00:57:08,000
Speaker 5: forty nine ers on paper. Aaron Rodgers has had a

1223
00:57:08,040 --> 00:57:10,600
Speaker 5: winning record in thirteen out of sixteen seasons. He's won

1224
00:57:10,640 --> 00:57:14,359
Speaker 5: double digit games ten times. Last season in Green Bay,

1225
00:57:14,400 --> 00:57:16,800
Speaker 5: I know it's bad. He broke a thumb on his

1226
00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:19,920
Speaker 5: throwing hand, so I'm gonna rule that out because.

1227
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:21,280
Speaker 2: The previous two years he won MVP.

1228
00:57:21,680 --> 00:57:24,360
Speaker 5: So the last two healthy seasons he is the two

1229
00:57:24,440 --> 00:57:25,440
Speaker 5: time defending MVP.

1230
00:57:26,080 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 2: I know he's forty.

1231
00:57:27,280 --> 00:57:29,960
Speaker 5: Tom Brady had five good years left at age forty

1232
00:57:30,000 --> 00:57:31,960
Speaker 5: still and was very much in the MVP mex a

1233
00:57:31,960 --> 00:57:35,240
Speaker 5: couple of those times. Aaron Rodgers in his career has

1234
00:57:35,280 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 5: had ten healthy seasons. He's averaged winning eleven games, and

1235
00:57:40,560 --> 00:57:43,560
Speaker 5: he won an MVP four to the ten times, nearly

1236
00:57:43,840 --> 00:57:46,439
Speaker 5: half of his times he's had a healthy season, He's

1237
00:57:46,520 --> 00:57:50,160
Speaker 5: won MVP fourteen out of the last seventeen MVPs go

1238
00:57:50,200 --> 00:57:53,960
Speaker 5: to the same five dudes. Aaron Rodgers, is that dude,

1239
00:57:54,480 --> 00:57:59,080
Speaker 5: Monday Night, Week one at San Francisco. He hates San Francisco.

1240
00:57:59,320 --> 00:58:01,040
Speaker 5: They had the number one and they didn't take him.

1241
00:58:01,040 --> 00:58:03,960
Speaker 5: He loves playing the forty nine ers Monday night. We're

1242
00:58:03,960 --> 00:58:06,760
Speaker 5: all watching you kickstart against a team that might not

1243
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:12,160
Speaker 5: be ready. Then Tennessee, New England, Denver, Minnesota. Holy easy schedule.

1244
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:15,680
Speaker 5: The Jets are five and oh, Aaron Rodgers is back.

1245
00:58:16,040 --> 00:58:19,880
Speaker 5: He's the MVP leader. This dude has equal MVP odds

1246
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:23,520
Speaker 5: right now to Jared Goff and Tua TAGOVLOA.

1247
00:58:24,080 --> 00:58:24,960
Speaker 2: What are we doing?

1248
00:58:25,080 --> 00:58:30,320
Speaker 5: It's Aaron Rodgers. He's behind Brock Purty. I am personally insulted.

1249
00:58:30,560 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 5: This is my favorite bet of the Awards season. Aaron

1250
00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 5: Rodgers twenty five to one MVP.

1251
00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:37,280
Speaker 2: Quickly?

1252
00:58:38,080 --> 00:58:39,360
Speaker 3: Can he win this award?

1253
00:58:40,040 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 4: If the Jets just make the playoffs and don't get

1254
00:58:42,400 --> 00:58:44,280
Speaker 4: a one or two seed because they know that fits

1255
00:58:44,320 --> 00:58:45,320
Speaker 4: your profile.

1256
00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:47,400
Speaker 5: You need the top two seed, so you gotta bet

1257
00:58:47,440 --> 00:58:49,680
Speaker 5: on to make the playoffs. I do think the Bills

1258
00:58:49,720 --> 00:58:53,120
Speaker 5: and Dolphins dropped off a little bit this year, but yeah,

1259
00:58:53,160 --> 00:58:54,880
Speaker 5: you certainly need a top two seed.

1260
00:58:54,880 --> 00:58:55,000
Speaker 2: Here.

1261
00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:57,400
Speaker 5: Let me just give you two names as super long

1262
00:58:57,440 --> 00:59:01,840
Speaker 5: shot bombs here. Deshaun Watson crazy. I know, seventy five

1263
00:59:01,880 --> 00:59:03,200
Speaker 5: to one achy narrative.

1264
00:59:03,240 --> 00:59:03,760
Speaker 2: I got it.

1265
00:59:04,240 --> 00:59:08,320
Speaker 5: Great defense, great offensive line that added Jerry Judy, added

1266
00:59:08,400 --> 00:59:12,680
Speaker 5: Ken Dorsey on offense. The schedule is good early again,

1267
00:59:12,800 --> 00:59:15,920
Speaker 5: sort of like Rogers. He could build some confidence, get going.

1268
00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:18,720
Speaker 5: Deshaun Watson. The last time we saw him healthy was good.

1269
00:59:18,760 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 5: I don't think it's in there anymore, but just in

1270
00:59:20,360 --> 00:59:23,320
Speaker 5: case I'm wrong, seven five to one is crazy. Gino

1271
00:59:23,440 --> 00:59:26,320
Speaker 5: Smith one hundred and fifty to one. I gave you

1272
00:59:26,400 --> 00:59:30,120
Speaker 5: the Seattle case already. The thing Ryan Grubb does best.

1273
00:59:30,200 --> 00:59:33,600
Speaker 5: Brian Grubb is throws, sets up the quarterback to throw

1274
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:36,560
Speaker 5: the deep balls to DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jackson Smith

1275
00:59:36,600 --> 00:59:39,240
Speaker 5: and Jigba. Gino Smith is the number one deep ball

1276
00:59:39,280 --> 00:59:42,400
Speaker 5: thrower in the league by pfif So if Seattle makes

1277
00:59:42,400 --> 00:59:44,480
Speaker 5: a push, if we're right about Mike McDonald and we

1278
00:59:44,560 --> 00:59:47,040
Speaker 5: get to a top two seed, Gino's got a pretty

1279
00:59:47,040 --> 00:59:49,480
Speaker 5: spicy narrative. Come back guy, guy that we kind of

1280
00:59:49,520 --> 00:59:52,280
Speaker 5: left for dead. He gets some long touchdowns in there

1281
00:59:52,320 --> 00:59:54,960
Speaker 5: to boost the stats. I don't think these guys are

1282
00:59:54,960 --> 00:59:57,200
Speaker 5: winn because Aaron Rodgers is gonna win, but I think

1283
00:59:57,240 --> 00:59:58,400
Speaker 5: either to Shaun or GINO.

1284
00:59:58,840 --> 01:00:00,520
Speaker 2: I think we get a moment one of them.

1285
01:00:00,520 --> 01:00:03,280
Speaker 5: I think they're in the conversation the quote unquote at

1286
01:00:03,280 --> 01:00:06,360
Speaker 5: some point, so I don't mind nibbling them. But it's fine.

1287
01:00:06,440 --> 01:00:07,560
Speaker 5: Aaron's gonna win anyway.

1288
01:00:10,800 --> 01:00:13,880
Speaker 4: I hate you sometimes because they're so good and really

1289
01:00:14,440 --> 01:00:17,240
Speaker 4: compelling and God, and you even put his name and

1290
01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:18,920
Speaker 4: Tom Brady the same sentence as Tom Brady.

1291
01:00:18,960 --> 01:00:20,480
Speaker 3: I still disagree with a lot of it.

1292
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:24,200
Speaker 4: Okay, all right, let's wrap it up, Brandon, quick rapid

1293
01:00:24,240 --> 01:00:27,480
Speaker 4: fire from all that we just discussed, really good stuff.

1294
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:31,680
Speaker 4: Best bets Aaron Rodgers at twenty five to one MVP

1295
01:00:31,800 --> 01:00:32,640
Speaker 4: and then the other two.

1296
01:00:32,680 --> 01:00:35,640
Speaker 2: Please Yeah, Aaron Rodgers twenty five to one.

1297
01:00:35,680 --> 01:00:38,400
Speaker 5: That's my favorite single pick and my best position on

1298
01:00:38,440 --> 01:00:41,000
Speaker 5: the pod is that defensive Player of the Year. The

1299
01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:44,160
Speaker 5: four brothers, Parsons six to one, Watt seven to one,

1300
01:00:44,240 --> 01:00:47,160
Speaker 5: Garrett eight to one, and Bosa ten to one plus

1301
01:00:47,240 --> 01:00:50,479
Speaker 5: one fourteen implied. Let's just keep it clean at that play,

1302
01:00:50,520 --> 01:00:52,919
Speaker 5: all four of those player Rogers. Let's make some money

1303
01:00:52,960 --> 01:00:54,760
Speaker 5: together this year winning awards.

1304
01:00:55,240 --> 01:00:58,840
Speaker 4: Okay, all right, wow, after all that, that's Wheland.

1305
01:00:58,920 --> 01:01:00,400
Speaker 3: We should have just done MVP first.

1306
01:01:00,400 --> 01:01:04,560
Speaker 4: For crying O block all right, Brandon Anderson, great job again, folks.

1307
01:01:04,600 --> 01:01:06,560
Speaker 4: Really important you want to follow Brandon in the Action

1308
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:09,200
Speaker 4: Network app are the contributors as well, But with Brandon

1309
01:01:09,720 --> 01:01:11,440
Speaker 4: during the year, we're gonna have We're gonna be with

1310
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:14,640
Speaker 4: each other during the Best Bets pods every Thursday and

1311
01:01:14,640 --> 01:01:16,959
Speaker 4: they'll come out Friday morning. But really important to find

1312
01:01:17,000 --> 01:01:19,240
Speaker 4: Brandon in the Action app follow him there for any

1313
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:23,840
Speaker 4: positions he may add to the portfolio as the season unfolds.

1314
01:01:23,840 --> 01:01:25,680
Speaker 3: And I'm the Jets.

1315
01:01:25,800 --> 01:01:28,600
Speaker 4: If the Jets beat the Niners, that those odds twenty

1316
01:01:28,600 --> 01:01:29,920
Speaker 4: five to one, it's gonna shorten.

1317
01:01:30,000 --> 01:01:34,040
Speaker 3: He's so freaking right, and it's annoying, but we'll see

1318
01:01:34,040 --> 01:01:34,560
Speaker 3: how it goes.

1319
01:01:34,960 --> 01:01:38,440
Speaker 4: Reminder, Tomorrow kicks off our NFL regular season programming here

1320
01:01:38,440 --> 01:01:39,880
Speaker 4: at the Action Network Podcast.

1321
01:01:39,880 --> 01:01:40,479
Speaker 3: We've got our.

1322
01:01:40,480 --> 01:01:45,000
Speaker 4: NFL Roundtable episodes coming up next, covering the biggest topics

1323
01:01:45,000 --> 01:01:47,480
Speaker 4: around the league. Then in the Jets we'll be talked

1324
01:01:47,480 --> 01:01:50,760
Speaker 4: about which is annoying already. Then every Thursday morning, we've

1325
01:01:50,760 --> 01:01:53,640
Speaker 4: got our flagship betting previews at Stucky and Raybond, who

1326
01:01:53,680 --> 01:01:57,360
Speaker 4: delivered their Sunday six pack for a sixth consecutive season.

1327
01:01:57,880 --> 01:02:00,440
Speaker 4: Every Friday morning, I'll be joined by Brandon Anderson for

1328
01:02:00,480 --> 01:02:02,320
Speaker 4: our Best Bets episode. As I teased a moment ago,

1329
01:02:02,400 --> 01:02:05,080
Speaker 4: he'll deliver his top three picks for the weekend slate

1330
01:02:05,120 --> 01:02:07,680
Speaker 4: into Monday as well if needed, and then first thing

1331
01:02:07,800 --> 01:02:11,800
Speaker 4: Monday morning, you'll get myself Evan Abrams, Brandon Anderson for

1332
01:02:11,800 --> 01:02:16,600
Speaker 4: our NFL recap episode, plus a preview of Monday Night

1333
01:02:16,800 --> 01:02:19,840
Speaker 4: Football for Brandon Anderson Brendan Glasheen.

1334
01:02:20,560 --> 01:02:22,000
Speaker 3: Stay tuned all week here.

1335
01:02:22,160 --> 01:02:24,040
Speaker 4: NFL Week one is here here on the Action Network

1336
01:02:24,080 --> 01:02:35,080
Speaker 4: podcast Best of Luck with all your bets.

1337
01:02:36,400 --> 01:02:39,840
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1338
01:02:40,240 --> 01:02:43,080
Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1339
01:02:43,360 --> 01:02:45,960
Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1340
01:02:46,080 --> 01:02:46,880
Speaker 4: hundred Gambler