WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Bob Doll & Frances Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>A single best Idea quick one today, busy, busy day.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll be with Bob Michael of JP Morgan hit a

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<v Speaker 2>wonderful Bloomberg conference this after and I'm really looking forward

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<v Speaker 2>to that. It's made easier because Michael has been so

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<v Speaker 2>right about yields coming in. I released today my chart

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<v Speaker 2>of the year for twenty twenty four. It's out on

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<v Speaker 2>Twitter on LinkedIn. I got to figure out how to

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<v Speaker 2>make it prettier, but there it is, and it's what

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<v Speaker 2>I least expected. Last year, I did not participate full

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<v Speaker 2>disclosure in a bond bow market. We came from a

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<v Speaker 2>crushing negative six standard deviations. That's a medical chart, folks,

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<v Speaker 2>the carnage in the bond market, negative six standard deviations

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<v Speaker 2>in the Bloomberg Corporate Series total return series, and we

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<v Speaker 2>come up not quite halfway back to the nirvana of

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<v Speaker 2>the great moderation. I did not see this coming. It

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<v Speaker 2>is my chart of the year. Look for that. I'll

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<v Speaker 2>do it, you know more here through November and into

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<v Speaker 2>December as well. We had a spectacular bond show. Today

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to focus on single best idea and what

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<v Speaker 2>you're focused on, not McDonald's, not Boeing, maybe earning season

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<v Speaker 2>in place Microsoft, the thirtieth Apple and Halloween. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>we'll have to see how technology does. But you got

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<v Speaker 2>to be in the market to play. Who else to

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<v Speaker 2>talk to but Robert Dahl of cross Mark.

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<v Speaker 3>It does not pay over the long term. If you

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<v Speaker 3>have no information to be out of stocks. Stocks beat

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<v Speaker 3>most other major asset classes most of the time. That's

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<v Speaker 3>the starting point. Then you can get more sophisticated after that.

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<v Speaker 3>But look, we're always scared market. Stocks in particular love

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<v Speaker 3>to climb a wall of worry. Yes we're worried about elections.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes we're worried about earnings. Yes we're worried about evaluate valuations,

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<v Speaker 3>we're worried about the fit, all kinds of things, not

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<v Speaker 3>to mention the geopolitical issues. But you've got to be

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<v Speaker 3>invested if you're going to make those long term returns.

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<v Speaker 3>Notwithstanding that long term comment that of Costin and I

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<v Speaker 3>are making about valuation.

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<v Speaker 2>Starting point, Bob doh, they're talking, and that question was

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<v Speaker 2>off of the debate off of Golden Sechs David Conston

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<v Speaker 2>looking out ten years for some mediocre returns. Doll agrees

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<v Speaker 2>with Coston and Ardnny writing a note last night really

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<v Speaker 2>pushing against the Golden Sechs thesis, looking for a roaring

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenties, and at the end of the note he says,

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<v Speaker 2>can he dare predict a roaring two and thirties? We

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<v Speaker 2>will get both mister Coston and mister Yardnny on surveillance

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<v Speaker 2>as their schedules permit. Always a good day when Francis

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<v Speaker 2>Donald darkens the door. Here at our World headquarters, fifty

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<v Speaker 2>ninth Street at Lexington Avenue, Francis Donald with RBC Capital Markets.

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<v Speaker 2>All Paul wanted to do was talk to about Montreal.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, she is Canadians, and we covered that Canadians.

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<v Speaker 2>Are we building Here here's Francis Donald on what you're

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<v Speaker 2>worried about the nation's debt and deficit.

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<v Speaker 4>I can't believe we don't talk every single day about

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<v Speaker 4>federal spending. It has been so extraordinarily disruptive to every

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<v Speaker 4>single economic model that exists, and it has changed the

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<v Speaker 4>way that we have to evaluate the cycle. But problematically,

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<v Speaker 4>we see these deficits rise and spending increase. But net

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<v Speaker 4>interest spending is now larger than defense spending. And if

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<v Speaker 4>we're spending government money and it's going to pay treasury

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<v Speaker 4>holders outside of the United States. That's not helping everyday Americans.

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<v Speaker 4>It's not boosting growth, and it's not actually inflationary either.

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<v Speaker 4>So it isn't just about the amount of government spending,

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<v Speaker 4>which is just chaotic in terms of how it's changing

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<v Speaker 4>the way the economy operates. It's where it's going and defense,

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<v Speaker 4>net interest spending, even entitlements, is not going to be

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<v Speaker 4>the juice that fuels this extended, continuous, resilient aggregate economy.

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<v Speaker 2>Francis Donald RBC, what are we doing here at Single

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<v Speaker 2>Best Idea? Joe Eisenthal, Tracy Alloway out with a new

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<v Speaker 2>restructured od Lots podcast, David Gura doing the Big Take podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>These are longer ten to fifteen twenty minutes. Everybody's overwhelmed

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<v Speaker 2>with ten fifteen twenty minute podcasts. Single Best Idea is

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<v Speaker 2>a quickie three, four, five, top seven minutes with some

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<v Speaker 2>of the best voices that we have. We hope you

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<v Speaker 2>listen and please subscribe to it. Tell your friends about

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