Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: A single best Idea quick one today, busy, busy day.
Speaker 2: I'll be with Bob Michael of JP Morgan hit a
Speaker 2: wonderful Bloomberg conference this after and I'm really looking forward
Speaker 2: to that. It's made easier because Michael has been so
Speaker 2: right about yields coming in. I released today my chart
Speaker 2: of the year for twenty twenty four. It's out on
Speaker 2: Twitter on LinkedIn. I got to figure out how to
Speaker 2: make it prettier, but there it is, and it's what
Speaker 2: I least expected. Last year, I did not participate full
Speaker 2: disclosure in a bond bow market. We came from a
Speaker 2: crushing negative six standard deviations. That's a medical chart, folks,
Speaker 2: the carnage in the bond market, negative six standard deviations
Speaker 2: in the Bloomberg Corporate Series total return series, and we
Speaker 2: come up not quite halfway back to the nirvana of
Speaker 2: the great moderation. I did not see this coming. It
Speaker 2: is my chart of the year. Look for that. I'll
Speaker 2: do it, you know more here through November and into
Speaker 2: December as well. We had a spectacular bond show. Today
Speaker 2: we're going to focus on single best idea and what
Speaker 2: you're focused on, not McDonald's, not Boeing, maybe earning season
Speaker 2: in place Microsoft, the thirtieth Apple and Halloween. You know,
Speaker 2: we'll have to see how technology does. But you got
Speaker 2: to be in the market to play. Who else to
Speaker 2: talk to but Robert Dahl of cross Mark.
Speaker 3: It does not pay over the long term. If you
Speaker 3: have no information to be out of stocks. Stocks beat
Speaker 3: most other major asset classes most of the time. That's
Speaker 3: the starting point. Then you can get more sophisticated after that.
Speaker 3: But look, we're always scared market. Stocks in particular love
Speaker 3: to climb a wall of worry. Yes we're worried about elections.
Speaker 3: Yes we're worried about earnings. Yes we're worried about evaluate valuations,
Speaker 3: we're worried about the fit, all kinds of things, not
Speaker 3: to mention the geopolitical issues. But you've got to be
Speaker 3: invested if you're going to make those long term returns.
Speaker 3: Notwithstanding that long term comment that of Costin and I
Speaker 3: are making about valuation.
Speaker 2: Starting point, Bob doh, they're talking, and that question was
Speaker 2: off of the debate off of Golden Sechs David Conston
Speaker 2: looking out ten years for some mediocre returns. Doll agrees
Speaker 2: with Coston and Ardnny writing a note last night really
Speaker 2: pushing against the Golden Sechs thesis, looking for a roaring
Speaker 2: twenty twenties, and at the end of the note he says,
Speaker 2: can he dare predict a roaring two and thirties? We
Speaker 2: will get both mister Coston and mister Yardnny on surveillance
Speaker 2: as their schedules permit. Always a good day when Francis
Speaker 2: Donald darkens the door. Here at our World headquarters, fifty
Speaker 2: ninth Street at Lexington Avenue, Francis Donald with RBC Capital Markets.
Speaker 2: All Paul wanted to do was talk to about Montreal.
Speaker 2: I mean, she is Canadians, and we covered that Canadians.
Speaker 2: Are we building Here here's Francis Donald on what you're
Speaker 2: worried about the nation's debt and deficit.
Speaker 4: I can't believe we don't talk every single day about
Speaker 4: federal spending. It has been so extraordinarily disruptive to every
Speaker 4: single economic model that exists, and it has changed the
Speaker 4: way that we have to evaluate the cycle. But problematically,
Speaker 4: we see these deficits rise and spending increase. But net
Speaker 4: interest spending is now larger than defense spending. And if
Speaker 4: we're spending government money and it's going to pay treasury
Speaker 4: holders outside of the United States. That's not helping everyday Americans.
Speaker 4: It's not boosting growth, and it's not actually inflationary either.
Speaker 4: So it isn't just about the amount of government spending,
Speaker 4: which is just chaotic in terms of how it's changing
Speaker 4: the way the economy operates. It's where it's going and defense,
Speaker 4: net interest spending, even entitlements, is not going to be
Speaker 4: the juice that fuels this extended, continuous, resilient aggregate economy.
Speaker 2: Francis Donald RBC, what are we doing here at Single
Speaker 2: Best Idea? Joe Eisenthal, Tracy Alloway out with a new
Speaker 2: restructured od Lots podcast, David Gura doing the Big Take podcast.
Speaker 2: These are longer ten to fifteen twenty minutes. Everybody's overwhelmed
Speaker 2: with ten fifteen twenty minute podcasts. Single Best Idea is
Speaker 2: a quickie three, four, five, top seven minutes with some
Speaker 2: of the best voices that we have. We hope you
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