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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Joe Wisn't Thal and I'm Tracy Alloway. Tracy, Obviously,

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Speaker 1: as we talked about all the time, one of the

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Speaker 1: most extraordinary moments in the economy that I think we've

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Speaker 1: ever seen so many different debates. Obviously, inflation is elevated,

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Speaker 1: the labor market is booming, growth is booming. The dispersion

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Speaker 1: of views about how good things are, how bad things are,

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Speaker 1: what to be done policy wise, I don't think I've

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Speaker 1: ever seen it as wide as it is right now. No,

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Speaker 1: it's funny. We talked about how you should never call

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Speaker 1: a turning point um in the broader economy, or at

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Speaker 1: least we used to, but it does actually feel like

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Speaker 1: we entered a new environment over the past year or so.

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Speaker 1: And of course the big questions here are to what

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Speaker 1: agree our supply chain constraints coinciding with booming demand and

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Speaker 1: and creating the inflationary pressures that we've seen recently. Well,

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Speaker 1: we have a great guest to talk about what's going on,

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Speaker 1: and of course the policy responds, and I want to

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Speaker 1: jump right into it. We're gonna be speaking with Brian Deese.

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Speaker 1: He is the director of the National Economic Council serving

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Speaker 1: President Joe Biden is a top advisor on policy on

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Speaker 1: getting things done. So, Briandes, thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: coming on odd lots. Thank you for having me. So

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Speaker 1: let me just start with like the simple first question,

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Speaker 1: which is do you and or in the White House

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Speaker 1: have a you on what's driving this elevated inflation. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think in order to answer that question, we have

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Speaker 1: to step back and look at their trajectory of the

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Speaker 1: economic recovery to date, and as you noted, we are

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Speaker 1: seeing a lot of historical first first in many years decade.

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Speaker 1: Start of the macro side, we're seeing strongest growth in

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Speaker 1: forty years. On the labor market side, we're seeing we

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Speaker 1: saw in labor market outcomes that are the strongest on record,

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Speaker 1: and in that context we're seeing it's in it's in

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Speaker 1: that context that I think we have to understand the

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Speaker 1: elevated price pressures that we have seen. So to to

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Speaker 1: get to your question, I think that if you look

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Speaker 1: at where we are in the economy, by most measures,

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Speaker 1: the U. S economy is not running beyond its potential

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Speaker 1: or capacity. If you look at you know, sort of

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Speaker 1: the projection from pre pandemic levels. We're getting close to

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Speaker 1: potential in a number of places, and we have moved

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Speaker 1: back to that trajectory faster than most folks participated. What

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Speaker 1: you have seen that particularly, I think breaking down the

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Speaker 1: price story is a historic compositional impact on the demand side.

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Speaker 1: So you know the shift the composition impact of significantly

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Speaker 1: elevated demand for good, A lot of that shifted from services,

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Speaker 1: and then a supply shock on the supply side, both

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Speaker 1: to labor supply and also to the broader supply chain

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Speaker 1: as well. And so you know, when we think about

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Speaker 1: the drivers and the inputs into where elevated prices are,

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Speaker 1: those are the two places we principally focus on, which

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Speaker 1: is the compositional side on demand, and so that leads

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Speaker 1: us to spend a lot of time thinking about looking

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Speaker 1: at is as as everybody is these days, the questions

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Speaker 1: of that, how that normalizes across time, and whether it's

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Speaker 1: normalizing and trying to assess that um and then on

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Speaker 1: the supply side, what we can be doing sector by

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Speaker 1: sector and also in the in the aggregate to try

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Speaker 1: to address those supply side issues, some of which operate

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Speaker 1: very immediate, short term, near term and you guys spent

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Speaker 1: a lot of time focused on issues like that, some

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Speaker 1: of which are more medium and long term, but sooner

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Speaker 1: we start to address them, like building semiconductor capacity in

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Speaker 1: the US, the better positions we will be. So that's

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Speaker 1: how we understand the dynamic. But in a more capstone way,

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Speaker 1: we find ourselves in a place where what's unique about

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Speaker 1: the United States right now is unlike almost any other

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Speaker 1: G seven country, any other industrialized country, we are facing

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Speaker 1: the challenges of elevated prices from a position of historic

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Speaker 1: economic strength. So whether it's in GDP, or it's in

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Speaker 1: labor market outcomes, or it's in real income outcomes for

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Speaker 1: the economy, we are stronger. We're in a stronger position

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Speaker 1: than almost ever any industrialized country to address elevated price

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Speaker 1: issues that every country is addressed. So you mentioned going

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Speaker 1: sector bi sector there, and of course one of the

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Speaker 1: biggest components of inflation has to be higher energy costs,

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Speaker 1: and we've seen oil prices shoot up recently. At the

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Speaker 1: same time, despite those price increases, we haven't really seen

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Speaker 1: much of a reaction from US shale in terms of

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Speaker 1: boosting capacity. What's the White House's impression of what's going

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Speaker 1: on in the energy space right now, Why won't producers

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Speaker 1: actually increase production? And is there anything you can do

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Speaker 1: to encourage them? And I guess also, how would you

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Speaker 1: square that with the administration's clean energy goals? Well, I

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Speaker 1: think in terms of the in terms of energy markets

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Speaker 1: and impacts on consumers in the US, one piece of

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Speaker 1: that is is obviously natural gas and home heating and

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Speaker 1: otherwise where we've actually seen a bit of moderation and

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Speaker 1: a reduction and projected cost impacts over the course of

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Speaker 1: this winter. Some of that has to do with the

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Speaker 1: market development, Some of that has to do with the

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Speaker 1: weather um and being a bit moremer than other I expected.

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Speaker 1: On the oil market side, I think this is where

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Speaker 1: you are you're going. I guess I'd say a couple

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Speaker 1: of things. Number One, we are now seeing and if

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Speaker 1: you're following recounts, you're seeing significant uptick over the course

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Speaker 1: of even the last couple of weeks, and most forward

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Speaker 1: projections suggests a significant ramp up over the course of

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Speaker 1: the first half of two in terms of US domestic production.

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Speaker 1: I will leave to oil market analysts to really unpack that,

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Speaker 1: but certainly from what we hear and what we see

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Speaker 1: that reflects a market reaction from a market that pulled

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Speaker 1: back in the face of getting historically chopped down during

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Speaker 1: the pandemic, and a lot of pressure on capital discipline

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Speaker 1: in that sector, and also a reflection of current prices

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Speaker 1: leading to bring production back online. So there's a question

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Speaker 1: of this sort of timing of that, but I think

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Speaker 1: that the ramps certainly over the course of the last

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Speaker 1: several weeks here is you're seeing that come online. But

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Speaker 1: what's driving the price of oil is global developments, a

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Speaker 1: commodity set on a global market. You know, we we

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Speaker 1: have we have a market that doesn't clear competitively to

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Speaker 1: have supply reflect demand. And one thing we've seen over

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Speaker 1: of course of this the last half of is that

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Speaker 1: the supply of oil on the global market was not

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Speaker 1: being allowed to meet the strong recovery in demand globally,

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Speaker 1: including in the United States. UM. And you know that

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Speaker 1: the reason for that is because supply of oil globally

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Speaker 1: is controlled and modulated by by OPEC. And so that's

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Speaker 1: why the President has invested the time and the energy

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Speaker 1: and our our entire administration and working diplomatically with oil

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Speaker 1: producing and oil consuming countries to try to address those issues.

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Speaker 1: And we obviously have you know, really pressing challenges that

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Speaker 1: are affecting risk sentiment and the risk premium and global

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Speaker 1: oil markets now around Russia, and it's provocative actions with

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Speaker 1: respect to Ukraine. So all of those things are weighing.

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Speaker 1: I think in terms of your final point, I think

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Speaker 1: that what's going on in the US market right now

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Speaker 1: is is the market responding to demand. And I bet

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Speaker 1: the President's vision for a long term clean energy future

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Speaker 1: is really the long term answer to this, to this

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Speaker 1: issue that that gas prices are higher now than they

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Speaker 1: than they should be, We're gonna work to try to

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Speaker 1: do everything we can to try to bring them down.

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Speaker 1: We recognize that, you know, in practice, that hits typical families,

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Speaker 1: It hits their budgets, It makes people uncertain and uncomfortable

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Speaker 1: about the economic environment. We're gonna do what we can

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Speaker 1: in the very immediate term to try to address that.

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Speaker 1: Over the long term, the right strategy is to put

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Speaker 1: the United States in the leadership position of driving towards

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Speaker 1: zero carbon, clean energy technologies and be the global innovation

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Speaker 1: hub for innovation and exports of those technologies and of

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Speaker 1: those capabilities. And whether that's on the the you know,

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Speaker 1: the transportation side, which is driving most of oil consumption,

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Speaker 1: around electric vehicles and the infanture to facilitate the transition

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Speaker 1: to electric vehicles, or whether it's on the power sector

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Speaker 1: side and driving the innovation around not only wind and solar,

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Speaker 1: but carbon cap true sequestration, hydrogen other answers. In this context,

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Speaker 1: the President's clean energy strategy is grounded in the idea

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Speaker 1: that we can and must have a an industrial strategy

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Speaker 1: that positions the United States as the locust of innovation

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Speaker 1: on that front. And I think that that is a

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Speaker 1: long term strategy where we need long term incentives to

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Speaker 1: drive that transition. And it's absolutely the right thing to

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Speaker 1: do and and and not inconsistent with an approach that

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Speaker 1: also is looking at how we can take immediate measures

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Speaker 1: to make sure supply and demand are aligning in the

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Speaker 1: market today. Let's talk about supply chains. Is basically a

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Speaker 1: year ago that the White House issued Executive Order on

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Speaker 1: America's supply chains. Ay, are there speci civic things you

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Speaker 1: can point to that have been done in the last

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Speaker 1: year where you could say, yes, this is working better

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Speaker 1: than it was prior to the EO, and be what

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Speaker 1: can still meaningfully move the dial as people think about

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Speaker 1: the economy, I guess at the shortened medium term. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: So we are releasing, on the occasion of the one

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Speaker 1: year anniversary of the President's executive order, a raft of

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Speaker 1: longer term supply chain strategies across the federal government. This

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Speaker 1: effort and the reason why, if we step back, the

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Speaker 1: reason why the President prioritized signing an executive order on

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Speaker 1: supply chain resilience a year ago was a recognition that

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Speaker 1: the issues that the pandemic had exposed and highlighted were

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Speaker 1: fundamental to national and economic security. And we're not going

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Speaker 1: to be solved overnight, and and we're going to be

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Speaker 1: through a different approach at the executive branch in federal

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Speaker 1: level to this over time. So a year later, I

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Speaker 1: would note a couple of things. This year has been

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Speaker 1: has been a story of progression and adaptation. First in

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Speaker 1: responding to real time, evolving supply chain challenges that reflect

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Speaker 1: the unique and historic nature of this pandemic affected recovery.

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Speaker 1: That's a lot about the work that we have done

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Speaker 1: working with the logistics and transportation logistics supply chain to

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Speaker 1: try to unstick bottlenecks at ports and freights and others.

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Speaker 1: You guys have covered all of those issues. But that's

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Speaker 1: one big piece of where we have learned a lot.

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Speaker 1: We have made a lot of progress to your point

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Speaker 1: about you know, we have, we can we can see

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Speaker 1: that progress tangibly. There's a lot of different ways to

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Speaker 1: think about that, but the way that I most think

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Speaker 1: about that is how far have we been able to

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Speaker 1: bring that dwell time down? Which your listeners are familiar with,

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Speaker 1: but to those who aren't, what share of containers are

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Speaker 1: sitting on ports on the dock for more than one days?

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Speaker 1: That dwell time since we launched the port actually and

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Speaker 1: efforts about five months ago that that twal times come down.

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Speaker 1: So that's a sort of concrete manifestation significant increase in

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Speaker 1: fluidity through the ports. But the second thing that we

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Speaker 1: have been doing in the supply chain context is trying

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Speaker 1: to demonstrate that we can actually build greater resilience in

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Speaker 1: our industrial base here in the United States. And that

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Speaker 1: is a longer term project, but I think if you

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Speaker 1: look over the last year, we have really made historic

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Speaker 1: progress on that front. You know, you can see that

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Speaker 1: in the macro three sixty seven thousand manufacturing jobs created

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Speaker 1: last year in the US. That's the highest in decades.

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Speaker 1: But we can also see it in companies making decisions

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Speaker 1: to build and expand domestically in sectors and at a

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Speaker 1: scale that we haven't seen for some significant period of time,

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Speaker 1: which reflects I think both you know, the policy environment,

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Speaker 1: but also their wreck ignition that supply chain resilience takes

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Speaker 1: on an increase importance. So you know, we've seen that

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Speaker 1: in semiconductors, electric vehicles, aircraft batteries, We've seen that across

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Speaker 1: the board. And third, we have a national national security

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Speaker 1: strategy that now says we have long term things that

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Speaker 1: we need to do as a country to protect core

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Speaker 1: national security areas like pharmaceuticals and critical minerals, and now

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Speaker 1: the the US government actually has a viable long term

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Speaker 1: strategy to address those. Last point on your question, though,

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Speaker 1: is where can we where can we continue to really

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Speaker 1: make progress and move the dial. Absolutely, we have some

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Speaker 1: very practical things we need in the short term. Semiconductors

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Speaker 1: is a front end center. We've seen historic investments by

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Speaker 1: the semiconductor and manufacturers to come to the United States.

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Speaker 1: But what they're all saying is unless we move to

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Speaker 1: have a long term public investment strategy to bist sector

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Speaker 1: that is all going to be short lived. So we

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Speaker 1: have we got to pass there's a bill that has

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Speaker 1: asked the House and pass the Senate. We've got to

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Speaker 1: get a version of that to the President's desk. That

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Speaker 1: would give us a historic fifty two billion dollars in

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Speaker 1: public and capital to invest to build that sector and

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Speaker 1: build supply chain resilience in that sector across time. I

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Speaker 1: belabor that on semiconductors because if you want to think

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Speaker 1: about supply chains, you know they are component in everything,

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Speaker 1: but they're also relevant to every supply chain. We've made

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Speaker 1: a lot of progress on that front. We know what

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Speaker 1: we need to do. We just have to get that done.

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Speaker 1: So one big component of some of these supply chain

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Speaker 1: strains has to be infrastructure, especially places like the ports.

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Speaker 1: How is the administration actually regrouping when it comes to

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Speaker 1: infrastructure spend and the build back better plan? Is there

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Speaker 1: going to be another push and what might that actually

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Speaker 1: look like? Your questions is absolutely on key because if

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Speaker 1: we think about the areas where we can most affect

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Speaker 1: ofaly operate on the supply side of this economy to

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Speaker 1: actually increase capacity and give us the ability to actually

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Speaker 1: move produce more goods and services with more fluidity and

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Speaker 1: actually expand our productive capacity outside of the labor supply issues.

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Speaker 1: Our investing in improving our physical infrastructure is right there

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Speaker 1: at the top of the list. And the good news

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Speaker 1: is that because of the infrastructure law that the President

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Speaker 1: shurput through and we passed, you know, bipartisan why last fall,

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Speaker 1: we now have a historic set of tools to actually

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Speaker 1: make these infrastructure investments in the right way. This was

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Speaker 1: a bill, and we have a strategy that is not

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Speaker 1: about short term stimulus. It's not about shove already at

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Speaker 1: the expense of other objectives. This is about how can

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Speaker 1: we actually build a modern supply chain, physical transportation supplied

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Speaker 1: chain across the economy, and how can we do that

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Speaker 1: in a way that's comprehensive. So, you know, if you

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Speaker 1: fix the ports, but you don't fix the roads and

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Speaker 1: the bridges. If you you know, fix the airports, but

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Speaker 1: you don't fix the uh, the interchanges, you don't actually

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Speaker 1: create a new environment where there's it's more attractive to

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Speaker 1: invest and build here. You don't create an environment where

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Speaker 1: you actually get those benefits of reducing cost in terms

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Speaker 1: of the whole supply chain. But we now have those

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Speaker 1: tools right, So historic investment imports historic investment in in airports,

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Speaker 1: in roads, in bridges, and also in areas where we

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Speaker 1: know we are behind the game, like high speed internet.

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Speaker 1: You know, getting high speed internet operating across the entire

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Speaker 1: economy and bringing all segments of the country into the

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Speaker 1: twenty one century economy of you know, strong internet able

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Speaker 1: to economic activity is a huge potential way to expand

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Speaker 1: our capacity to bring more people in to contributing to

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Speaker 1: our economic capacity, and we now have the tools. So

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Speaker 1: on that front are big focus is implementation, implementation, implementation.

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Speaker 1: We need to demonstrate that we can do things well,

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Speaker 1: and the President has been very clear and given us

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Speaker 1: clear direction. We brought in Mitch Landrew as our partner

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Speaker 1: in all of these efforts to try to demonstrate that

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Speaker 1: we can do this effectively effective use of money. We

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Speaker 1: can build things in the United States, again where we

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Speaker 1: have to demonstrate that we can do things on time

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Speaker 1: and under budget, and we also need to demonstrate that

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Speaker 1: we can do these things in a way that actually

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Speaker 1: brings all parts of the country and more people who

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Speaker 1: have been left out of prior big public investment campaigns

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Speaker 1: into that into that process. So we're bullish about the

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Speaker 1: ability to do that. We often get the question of, well,

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Speaker 1: you know, those investments are not going to happen overnight.

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Speaker 1: You know, how does that affect people who are worried

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Speaker 1: about you know, the cost of good for shipping right now?

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Speaker 1: I think you guys know, But what we're seeing in

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Speaker 1: real time is some of these things can actually have

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Speaker 1: our real impact act really quickly. But some of these

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Speaker 1: things are five or eight year undertakings that we want

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Speaker 1: to do right. So we want to you know, we

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Speaker 1: want to rebuild all the major bridges in America that

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Speaker 1: are those bottlenecks for commerce and have a huge economic

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Speaker 1: impact across time. But we want to do that right.

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Speaker 1: This is a once in a generation opportunity to get

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Speaker 1: that done and build back better. Yeah. So I think

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Speaker 1: if you think about you think about the intersection between

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Speaker 1: the theory of what we can get done that big

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Speaker 1: public investment strategy around physical infrastructure, and we think about

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Speaker 1: the economic challenge of the current moment. The other thing

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Speaker 1: that we want to do, in addition to operating on

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Speaker 1: the supply side to make our infrastructure ready made for

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Speaker 1: the twenty century, is we also want to make things

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Speaker 1: more affordable for typical families who are you know, on

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Speaker 1: the one hand, benefiting from an economy that has a

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Speaker 1: historically strong job market, but on the other hand are

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Speaker 1: really having to deal with higher prices and the impact

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Speaker 1: that that has of the grocery store or the gas pump.

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Speaker 1: And so if you think about what are the best

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Speaker 1: ways go right at making things more affordable for families,

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Speaker 1: it is look at the bulk of what a family's

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Speaker 1: typical budget is. So typical family in a month spends

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Speaker 1: about six of their disposable income on healthcare, prescription drugs, childcare,

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Speaker 1: and housing. We now have proposals that would go right

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Speaker 1: at reducing costs for those for those families, reduce the

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Speaker 1: cost of prescription drugs and cop out of pocket costs,

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Speaker 1: reduced the cost of childcare, which will have a positive

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Speaker 1: labor supply impact by helping more parents more women get

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Speaker 1: back to work, and also reduce the cost of energy.

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Speaker 1: Because to the question you were raising before, Tracy about

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Speaker 1: our energy strategy, the clean energy tax credit provisions that

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Speaker 1: we have been pushing for the principal impact that they

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Speaker 1: would have would be to actually lower utility bills for consumers.

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Speaker 1: We have of the CEOs of the largest utilities in

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Speaker 1: recently to have a conversation about this, and to a

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Speaker 1: single to a person, what they said was, if you

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Speaker 1: pass these long term in centers, we will accelerate the

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Speaker 1: transition to zero carbon energy. But the way we'll do it,

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Speaker 1: both practically and legally, is will pass on those benefits

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Speaker 1: to consumers, because those tax credits flow right through to

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Speaker 1: consumers bottom line. So we view those core investments, which

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Speaker 1: are the core components of the Build Back Better bill

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Speaker 1: that passed the House, as meeting the current economic moment

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Speaker 1: of making things more affordable for people. And we can

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Speaker 1: do that in a way that won't add to inflationary

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Speaker 1: pressure because it won't add to aggregate demand because it

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Speaker 1: will be paid for and actually would reduce the deficit

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Speaker 1: across time. So that's you know, we think there's a

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Speaker 1: compelling economic logic. We think that for anyone who is

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Speaker 1: of the view that high price now are the top

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Speaker 1: priority and we need to focus on making things more affordable.

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Speaker 1: We have these practical answers right now, healthcare, prescript and drugs, childcare, energy,

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Speaker 1: We can we can we can act on that, and

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Speaker 1: so we're gonna give a State of the Union here

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Speaker 1: in a couple of days, we're gonna get through getting

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Speaker 1: a funding bill hopefully done so we can fund its operations,

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Speaker 1: and then we'renna try to make real progress on those

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Speaker 1: policies and try to deliver on that other piece of

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Speaker 1: making these more affordable for families. Bryan, Obviously, so much

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Speaker 1: of the discussion and just this moment really is all

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Speaker 1: about things going on on the supply side, in particular

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Speaker 1: physical infrastructure, which we've been talking about, and when is

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Speaker 1: this going to ease? There are a lot of people

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Speaker 1: and even some of the market, and Tracy has written

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Speaker 1: about this, pointing to corporate behavior and increased margins, and

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Speaker 1: people probably within the White House who believe that it's

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Speaker 1: greed and that we don't necessarily need to have the

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Speaker 1: price increases we have right now, even with the disruptions,

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Speaker 1: because a lot of it can be explained via corporate greed.

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Speaker 1: Is that a factor in your mind, simply changing corporate behavior?

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Speaker 1: And are their policies that theoretically could be put in

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Speaker 1: place to discour ridge companies from trying to opportunistically expand margins.

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you where our focus has been on that front,

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Speaker 1: which is it's interesting the President has for some time,

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Speaker 1: including before he, before he ran UM and before he

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Speaker 1: before he won the presidency, has been focused on the

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Speaker 1: question of the intersection between corporate consolidation and our economic

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Speaker 1: potential UM and it's been concerned and compelled by the

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Speaker 1: growing body of evidence that actually demonstrates that in many

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Speaker 1: industries the trend of consolidation has actually had negative attended

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Speaker 1: impacts for the economy that manifest in higher prices and

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Speaker 1: less and fewer options for consumers, and also for negative

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Speaker 1: outcomes in the labor market as well. And so that's technical,

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Speaker 1: there's a there's a there's a study by an expert

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Speaker 1: at n y U that tried to put that in

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Speaker 1: dollar terms and basically said that consolidation over the course

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Speaker 1: of the last couple of decades has basically reduced by

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Speaker 1: about five thousand dollars a typical families economic outcomes. That

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Speaker 1: takes into account both the impact on the price side

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Speaker 1: and also the impact on the wage side as well.

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Speaker 1: So that has been a persistent concern of the President

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Speaker 1: and a persistent priority of the administration. That is separable

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Speaker 1: from the question of whether consolidation and or corporate behavior

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Speaker 1: is responsible for the current inflation. There you know. I

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Speaker 1: think our view is that those issues of consolidation have

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Speaker 1: been operating over the course of years and decades, and

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Speaker 1: so they're not the principle of primary driver of current

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Speaker 1: pricing trends. But we do believe that that by addressing

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Speaker 1: those issues we can have a really positive impact on

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Speaker 1: the supply side of the economy and actually produce better

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Speaker 1: outcomes across time. So there's a nuance there, but I

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Speaker 1: think it's an important one, which is no, are we're

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Speaker 1: not out there making the argument that says, you know,

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Speaker 1: that the dominant reason why we have high prices today

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Speaker 1: is because we've seen corporate consolidation over the course of

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Speaker 1: the last two decades. But at the same time, those

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Speaker 1: who say this argument is all kind of you know,

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Speaker 1: is all without merit, and therefore we should look through

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Speaker 1: the negative attended impacts or the and the positive opportunity

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Speaker 1: we have for more innovation, more economic growth, and lower

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Speaker 1: prices for consumers by addressing these consolidation issues. We think

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Speaker 1: that you're missing something very important. I mean, setting aside

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Speaker 1: the longer term consolidation that you just described, we have

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Speaker 1: seen a very wide variety of companies over the past

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Speaker 1: earning season come out and say that they're raising prices

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Speaker 1: to offset costs. And one of the things that could

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Speaker 1: be worrying if you're concerned about an inflationary spiral is

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Speaker 1: that the companies that have been doing that have been

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Speaker 1: rewarded by shareholders. You know, obviously, the idea of raising

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Speaker 1: prices to offset costs sounds great to people who are

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Speaker 1: interested in profits, and if you can do that without

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Speaker 1: actually getting pushback from consumers, then that would seem like

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Speaker 1: a really great thing. Is that dynamic where you do

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Speaker 1: start to see more and more companies raising prices? Is

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Speaker 1: that concerning to the administration? And is that something that

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Speaker 1: they would be looking into? Certainly, certainly it's a concern

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Speaker 1: and it's something that we are paying attention to. At

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Speaker 1: the same time, I think that if a company's strategy

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Speaker 1: is to ignore or downplay long term investments in its

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Speaker 1: own competitive positioning and and doesn't have a viable strategy

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Speaker 1: for long term profitability, and it's trying to ride the

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Speaker 1: wave of short term price increases at the expense of

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Speaker 1: its stakeholders, it's unlikely that that's going to be a

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Speaker 1: successful strategy across time. And you know, are that's certainly

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Speaker 1: been how our capital markets have responded in the past,

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Speaker 1: so certainly a concern. Absolutely. I think we're trying to

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Speaker 1: look at the question of the underlying trends and where

436
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 1: are there issues in our policy apparatus that have encouraged

437
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 1: dynamics that actually end up producing worse outcomes for the economy.

438
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: So the reason why I went to the point about

439
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 1: consolidation is that that is a you know, a well

440
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 1: documented problem that policy has actually exacerbated very significantly, and

441
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,360
Speaker 1: we need to do something about. If you look at

442
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 1: the you know, the long term trend away from companies

443
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 1: making more investment in in capital and R and D,

444
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 1: you know, the troubling increase in buy backs for example,

445
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 1: that's an issue that we think should be addressed by policy.

446
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 1: And you know, we we have been pushing, for example,

447
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 1: to try to normalize the tax treatment between buy backs

448
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 1: and dividends, to try to eliminate the current implicit incentive

449
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,640
Speaker 1: for companies to you know, opt towards share buy backs.

450
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 1: And so those are the kinds of issues that we

451
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 1: have tried to zero in on where we think that

452
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 1: policy can we have a problem in policy can make

453
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 1: a important contribution, while at the same time thinking about

454
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 1: how we can take concrete actions directly from a fiscal

455
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 1: policy standpoint to make things more affordable and to operate

456
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:52,119
Speaker 1: on the supply side, like we're talking about before. So

457
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 1: I want to pivot just a little bit. And I'm

458
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 1: not going to ask you about monetary policy, because I

459
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,159
Speaker 1: know that no one at the Whitehouse would ever do

460
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 1: such a thing as comments on the independence of monetary policy.

461
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 1: But there is uh this widespread expectation, pretty obvious that

462
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 1: we are going to have several rate hikes in at

463
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:14,919
Speaker 1: least on the current trajectory. Is there any concern about

464
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 1: how this is going to be managed? And I'm thinking,

465
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 1: particularly you said earlier that we're coming at the inflation

466
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 1: problem in the US from a position of strength, good

467
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 1: labor market outcomes high growth. Nonetheless, if you think about

468
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 1: any sort of efforts at slowing the economy, not only

469
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 1: could that impede growth the labor market, but we see

470
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:38,440
Speaker 1: things such as you know, the last hired often first fired,

471
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 1: and the black white unemployment gap is often a casualty

472
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 1: of slowing labor markets, and good labor markets obviously have

473
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: a history of tightening. That is that a concern at

474
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 1: the White House. Some of these second order effects of

475
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 1: perhaps losing momentum on some of the social justice and

476
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 1: other societal gains that come from a very robust and

477
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 1: hot labor market. I was, I was, I was laughing

478
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 1: to myself, but whether we were going we were going

479
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 1: to engage the back and forth about you asking me

480
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 1: about monetary policy and me not. No, I I know

481
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 1: you would never come into such a thing, So that

482
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 1: we can we can move right on by Look, joking aside,

483
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: The President made the picks for the Federal Reserve Chair

484
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 1: and members of the Federal Reserve intentionally. He has spoken

485
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 1: to that, and I can speak to our confidence in

486
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 1: share Powell and that team to make the right decisions,

487
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 1: and the recalibration that they are actively engaged in right

488
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 1: now is appropriate, and we fully expect and trust that

489
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 1: they will continue that in a thoughtful and independent way. Look,

490
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: I would I think you're raising an important point, and

491
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: I guess I would just underscore I don't think that

492
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 1: the issues that you are raising are about social justice

493
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 1: or equity alone. They are about the strength and the

494
00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 1: durability of our macro econ onic recovery. And one of

495
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 1: the things that I think has actually gotten lost in

496
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 1: the debate about this economic recovery. What role has policy had,

497
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 1: you know, we're needed spending a lot of time appropriately

498
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 1: focused on inflation right now, is just what are the

499
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 1: what are the conversations we're not having right now? We're

500
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 1: not having a conversation about a protracted slow labor market

501
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 1: leading to more and more people joining the ranks of

502
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 1: the long term unemployee. We're not having a conversation about

503
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 1: you know, elevated unemployment leading to scarring, which is a

504
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 1: sort of you know, economic technical way of saying human

505
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 1: suffering that extends and and and and calcifies and means

506
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 1: that you know, millions of people across the country are

507
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 1: robbed of the economic potential of working and moving up

508
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 1: in that way, and it is striking, you know, I mean,

509
00:30:56,760 --> 00:31:00,080
Speaker 1: just to put you know, one specific thing around it.

510
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 1: You know, we pay a lot of attention to the

511
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 1: question of the long term unemployed precisely because that issue

512
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 1: of you know, scarring or history sists, you know, of

513
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 1: making it really hard for people to get back into

514
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 1: a position to get to economic outcomes, is a you know,

515
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 1: long term uneployment is a proxy for that, right if

516
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 1: you look back to prior recoveries. One of the you know,

517
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 1: persistent drags on our economic potential as a country has

518
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 1: been the slow plotting recovery of of of long term unemployment.

519
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 1: In this recovery, we have seen that dramatically we were

520
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 1: almost back to pre COVID levels in terms of long

521
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 1: term unemployment. You know, if you go back to two right,

522
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 1: there's a lot of there's a lot of analogies back

523
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 1: to that period in terms of you know, last time

524
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 1: we've seen a lot of these economic outcomes, growth and inflation,

525
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 1: the long term unemployment that persisted in the years after.

526
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 1: You know, there's there's a big body of economic research

527
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 1: that has shown just that that had like a decade

528
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 1: all negative impact for a lot of groups of people

529
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 1: and a lot and geographies, and that is a macro

530
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 1: impact for our economy as well. That's true for youth unemployment,

531
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 1: it's true for black unemployment. To the point you said,

532
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 1: any any the groups that are have been the most

533
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 1: structurally or or excluded from our labor market are the

534
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 1: most at risk when you have a weak labor market recovery.

535
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 1: So we think that that's really important. We think it's

536
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 1: important for the macro economy, and we think that the

537
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 1: progress that we have made is part of what puts

538
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 1: us in a good position. And you know, I'll end

539
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 1: on your point. Am I worried about it? Look, yeah,

540
00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:47,560
Speaker 1: we're worried about everything. We're worried about all manner of

541
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 1: things that could go could go wrong. But what striking

542
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 1: is we are in a better position than we have

543
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 1: been in any modern recovery to actually demonstrate the benefits

544
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 1: of that, you know, reverse history syst that pulling people

545
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 1: having a strong labor market recovery actually pulling people into

546
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 1: the labor market, giving them upward opportunity, and that's you know,

547
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 1: that's something that we should all be we should all

548
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 1: be worried about, but we should all be focused on

549
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 1: in prioritizing as well. So I realized we don't have

550
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 1: that much time left. But since you just mentioned, you know,

551
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: stuff we should potentially be worried about, we'd be remiss

552
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 1: if we didn't ask you whether or not you're thinking

553
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 1: about the situation in Ukraine and with Russia and what

554
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 1: the economic impacts or risks to the US might actually

555
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 1: be if Russia did choose to invade. We're deeply concerned

556
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 1: and we are very focused on the sustained diplomatic effort

557
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 1: that the President has led across our allies and partners

558
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:56,240
Speaker 1: to underscore too to Putin and the the Russians the

559
00:33:56,480 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 1: stakes and the costs associated with with their choices. In

560
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 1: terms of the economic context, We've made very clear to

561
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:11,720
Speaker 1: the Russians that their decision, and President Putin's decision to invade,

562
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 1: would be met with historically strong economic costs in the

563
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:21,480
Speaker 1: form of sanctions, financial market sanctions in the and in

564
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 1: the form of export controls as well, in a way

565
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 1: that will be unified from the United States and our allies.

566
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:35,359
Speaker 1: They will put the Russian economy in a very challenge situation. Now.

567
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:37,719
Speaker 1: The question then is how can we work to make

568
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:42,320
Speaker 1: sure that we impose those costs appropriately on the Russian

569
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 1: economy while limiting the impact to the U. S economy

570
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 1: and our allies as well. You know, on that front,

571
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 1: in terms of direct impact, the United States does not

572
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 1: have very much macro exposure at all to the impacts

573
00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:00,360
Speaker 1: of these sanctions and export controls, which puts us In

574
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 1: in a strong position to be able to move. The

575
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 1: two places where we have been very focused are both

576
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 1: in energy with respect to natural gas and working with

577
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 1: our europe European allies to mitigate potential disruptions principally for

578
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:17,840
Speaker 1: access to to gas across Europe. We on the natural

579
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 1: gas side, we will not be it would not be

580
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,880
Speaker 1: a major factor in terms of US prices or or supply.

581
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:26,400
Speaker 1: But then we've done a lot of work with our

582
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:31,279
Speaker 1: European allies to to work on mitigation measures on the

583
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:33,839
Speaker 1: on that front. And then to circle back to where

584
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 1: you know, one of the first questions around oil markets,

585
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 1: how we can work to mitigate the potential impact on

586
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:45,959
Speaker 1: oil markets. And the President mentioned on Monday that he

587
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:50,880
Speaker 1: has been working with allies and partners and oil producing

588
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:55,040
Speaker 1: countries to make sure that we are prepared to take

589
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:59,759
Speaker 1: any and all actions necessary to try to address the

590
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 1: oil market issue in a way that can maximally mitigate

591
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 1: those uh those impacts as well. So work on that

592
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:09,280
Speaker 1: front is actively underway. All options remain on the table

593
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 1: on that front, and so that's that's where our principal

594
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 1: focus has been in terms of mitigation. But you know,

595
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 1: it's a very serious, very serious situation that will have

596
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 1: serious economic consequences, and we continue to work on the

597
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 1: diplomatic side in in every way that we can to

598
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 1: to to avoid the worst outcomes. Brian ds, Director of

599
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 1: the National Economic Council, thank you so much for coming

600
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 1: on odline. Thanks thanks to both of you for having me.

601
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:58,720
Speaker 1: Thanks Brian, Thanks Brian, well Tracy. Obviously that was a

602
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 1: real treat getting to speak with such a high up

603
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 1: White House official on the economy. You know, actually the

604
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 1: thing is, the area that struck me most, or one

605
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 1: of the things was this sort of and we should

606
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 1: probably talk about it more on the podcast is and

607
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:14,879
Speaker 1: I also know it's an interest of yours, this sort

608
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:17,319
Speaker 1: of threading the needle a bit on this sort of

609
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:22,600
Speaker 1: question of corporate behavior, greed, consolidation and the current tensions

610
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 1: now and this idea of sort of anti monopoly or

611
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 1: pro competitive practice as one factor, maybe not acute, but

612
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 1: one factor that could drive pricing pressure down over the

613
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 1: long term totally. And there's so much to say on that,

614
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 1: and of course there's like there's a very large body

615
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:46,279
Speaker 1: of academic research on things like price controls um and

616
00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:49,359
Speaker 1: it seems to be an issue, but also the solutions

617
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 1: don't seem to work well. In fact, they often seem

618
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 1: to backfire. The other thing that struck me was his

619
00:37:56,160 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 1: response to your question. That wasn't on monetary policy, but

620
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:04,319
Speaker 1: it sort of was about it does feel like we

621
00:38:04,360 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 1: are in this weird place at the moment where people

622
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 1: are upset about the inflationary pressures, but on the other hand,

623
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 1: the economy itself is in decent shape and there's this

624
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 1: weird kind of tension there. And I think we've discussed

625
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 1: this at one point or another recently, but it feels

626
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 1: like one of the lessons we're learning is that in

627
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:32,240
Speaker 1: terms of politics, inflation seems to be a much bigger

628
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 1: issue simply because it ends up affecting everyone in one

629
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 1: way or another, Whereas when employment is at four percent,

630
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:44,120
Speaker 1: it's very hard to get the voting population to, you know,

631
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 1: really care about that isn't care about inclusive employment and

632
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 1: bringing in even more people at the margins to care

633
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 1: about that as an issue. Yeah, And I think that's right,

634
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 1: And I think it's one of the areas that I

635
00:38:57,200 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 1: have had to sort of reforming my thinking a bit,

636
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:05,399
Speaker 1: because obviously post GFC, the story was the other way.

637
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 1: And I guess I'm I'm surprised a little bit that

638
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 1: the the sort of extremely rapid labor market recovery is

639
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:19,359
Speaker 1: not seen as a sort of as as a win

640
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:22,799
Speaker 1: publicly the same way. And I don't know, it's not

641
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 1: obvious to me, like if the unemployment rate had sort

642
00:39:25,600 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 1: of settled here at six percent but inflation were lower,

643
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 1: six percent, employment is kind of high and well above

644
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:34,880
Speaker 1: where it was pre crisis. It would be interesting to

645
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 1: know that that counterfactual we're inflation was a little bit lower,

646
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 1: but we had unemployment six percent the assessment of the economy.

647
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 1: But it definitely seems right now that inflation from a

648
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 1: sort of the public's perspective, when you look at things

649
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 1: like consumer sentiment, et cetera. In fact, that it's a

650
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 1: bad time to buy a house, it's a bad time

651
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 1: to buy a car, it's a bad time to buy

652
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 1: a washing machine, it's a bad time to buy a

653
00:39:56,680 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 1: vacuum cleaner. It feels like that is overwhelming lead the

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Speaker 1: number one issue, and that most people are just the

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Speaker 1: labor market is not top of mind. No, I would

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Speaker 1: agree with that, But um, interesting times, you know, even

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Speaker 1: setting aside Russia and Ukraine, which is a whole interesting

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Speaker 1: time in and of itself. Interesting to see the administration unveiling, uh,

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Speaker 1: some more measures on the supply chain front as well.

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Speaker 1: Shall we leave it there. Let's leave it there, all right.

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Speaker 1: This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Wisntal. You could follow me

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at The Stalwart. Follow our guest Brian Deese

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Speaker 1: He's at Brian Deese n e C. Follow our producer

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Speaker 1: Laura Carlson at Laura M. Carlson. Followed the Bloomberg head

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Speaker 1: of podcast, Francesca Levy at Francesca Today, and check out

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Speaker 1: all of our podcasts at Bloomberg under the handle at podcasts.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening year to