WEBVTT - Pfizer Booster Shot Restores Covid Protection

0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.440
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm

0:00:04.480 --> 0:00:07.280
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

0:00:07.320 --> 0:00:09.840
<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world to business and finance,

0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.640
<v Speaker 1>plus technology, politics, economics, all purtnising the power of Business

0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:17.159
<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:20.000
<v Speaker 1>analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download

0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:23.479
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Weekend iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You

0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:25.439
<v Speaker 1>can also listen to our radio show at two pm

0:00:25.480 --> 0:00:28.400
<v Speaker 1>Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on YouTube

0:00:28.400 --> 0:00:32.879
<v Speaker 1>search Bloomberg Global News. Watching some of the headlines, I

0:00:32.920 --> 0:00:35.600
<v Speaker 1>have been messaging some of our team about this whole

0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:38.639
<v Speaker 1>mix and match idea fiser though in bion Tech did

0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:40.480
<v Speaker 1>come out saying a booster shout of their Kevin nineteen

0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:44.720
<v Speaker 1>vaccine restored full protection. They did a large study results

0:00:44.720 --> 0:00:46.519
<v Speaker 1>that are likely to bolster the argument for giving a

0:00:46.600 --> 0:00:49.319
<v Speaker 1>third dose more widely in the population. We're also keeping

0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:52.080
<v Speaker 1>an eye on what's happening in the UK because the

0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:55.480
<v Speaker 1>country reported the most new cases since July there and

0:00:55.760 --> 0:00:58.520
<v Speaker 1>they have just under seventy the population vaccinated. Right, so

0:00:58.520 --> 0:01:00.400
<v Speaker 1>you're trying to Okay, so how is that? And let's

0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:02.640
<v Speaker 1>not forget we've got a palle of experts advising the

0:01:02.760 --> 0:01:05.080
<v Speaker 1>U S c d C meeting today to talk about

0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:07.160
<v Speaker 1>booster shots, to talk about mix and match so we'll

0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:09.520
<v Speaker 1>watch for some headlines on that. Let's get to it though,

0:01:09.560 --> 0:01:12.120
<v Speaker 1>with Dr g G. Gronville. She's Senior Scholar at the

0:01:12.160 --> 0:01:14.720
<v Speaker 1>Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and Associate Professor in

0:01:14.760 --> 0:01:17.600
<v Speaker 1>the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering at the Johns

0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:20.880
<v Speaker 1>Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg,

0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:24.360
<v Speaker 1>founder of Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. She is an

0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:27.479
<v Speaker 1>immunologist by training, an author, and she joins us once

0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:30.440
<v Speaker 1>again from Baltimore. Dr Gronville, good to have you back

0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:33.959
<v Speaker 1>here on Bloomberg Radio. Help me make sense of some

0:01:34.040 --> 0:01:35.600
<v Speaker 1>of the headlines that I expect that we're going to

0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:38.400
<v Speaker 1>get pretty soon, and especially when it comes to mixing

0:01:38.400 --> 0:01:40.959
<v Speaker 1>and matching vaccines, especially when it comes to getting a

0:01:40.959 --> 0:01:44.320
<v Speaker 1>booster what's the guided you guys are coming to at

0:01:44.400 --> 0:01:48.760
<v Speaker 1>Johns Hopkins or concluding that should be the guidance? Sure,

0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:53.760
<v Speaker 1>So yesterday UM, the FDA announced that UM they that

0:01:54.200 --> 0:01:57.360
<v Speaker 1>mixing and matching is the way to go. They didn't

0:01:57.840 --> 0:02:02.080
<v Speaker 1>uh state of preference for a particular order of vaccine,

0:02:02.160 --> 0:02:05.520
<v Speaker 1>like say, if you had J J vaccine, which which

0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:10.360
<v Speaker 1>booster you should choose? UM. The panel that's meeting today

0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:13.519
<v Speaker 1>may get more specific than that and make some more

0:02:13.919 --> 0:02:18.040
<v Speaker 1>recommendations along that those lines. But right now, UM, it's

0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:21.679
<v Speaker 1>looking like at least you can choose which of the

0:02:21.800 --> 0:02:24.799
<v Speaker 1>three even if there is no recommendation. Is it a

0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:27.200
<v Speaker 1>little confusing for someone like me and Tim that we're

0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:29.040
<v Speaker 1>thinking about the booster so that when we go to

0:02:29.080 --> 0:02:31.320
<v Speaker 1>sign up, is that then places are going to say,

0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:33.320
<v Speaker 1>here's what we're offering, you know, I mean, I'm just

0:02:33.360 --> 0:02:36.040
<v Speaker 1>thinking about the logistics of this, because then if you

0:02:36.080 --> 0:02:37.680
<v Speaker 1>are if you want to go mix and match, then

0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:39.480
<v Speaker 1>you want to know if you're going to go somewhere,

0:02:39.520 --> 0:02:44.000
<v Speaker 1>what what vaccine you're going to get. Right right now

0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:47.520
<v Speaker 1>you can you can learn where your vaccine site and

0:02:47.560 --> 0:02:50.320
<v Speaker 1>what they're offering. UM. If you go to vaccine stack

0:02:50.400 --> 0:02:54.000
<v Speaker 1>of UM you can or even you can see in

0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:57.200
<v Speaker 1>the advertisement of whatever pharmacy you're planning on getting vaccinated

0:02:57.240 --> 0:03:00.320
<v Speaker 1>that they will tell you, UM, if there's if they're

0:03:00.960 --> 0:03:05.519
<v Speaker 1>offering fiser that day or maderna or J and J UM.

0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:08.560
<v Speaker 1>So you do you do, You have to ask sometimes,

0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:12.160
<v Speaker 1>but but that information is definitely available to you. What

0:03:12.200 --> 0:03:14.400
<v Speaker 1>was going on before is that you know there was

0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:17.880
<v Speaker 1>data that was showing that a third shot, if you've

0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:21.280
<v Speaker 1>got the fiser maderna, for example, a third shot would

0:03:21.280 --> 0:03:25.400
<v Speaker 1>be beneficial. And especially if you had the J and

0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:28.880
<v Speaker 1>J vaccine, that a second shot of an MR and

0:03:28.919 --> 0:03:32.240
<v Speaker 1>A vaccine. So either fiser maderna would be a good idea.

0:03:32.600 --> 0:03:35.600
<v Speaker 1>And so people were going ahead and doing that ahead

0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:39.960
<v Speaker 1>of any recommendation. So this will hopefully make those logistics easier.

0:03:40.400 --> 0:03:42.560
<v Speaker 1>So what would you advise people who right now are

0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:45.320
<v Speaker 1>getting emails from wherever they got their first two shots

0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:47.360
<v Speaker 1>that say, hey, we are open for boosters if you

0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:49.760
<v Speaker 1>want to come and get a booster. Should they wait

0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:52.120
<v Speaker 1>for official guidance, should they wait for more guidance or

0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:53.640
<v Speaker 1>should they just go ahead and get it done and

0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:56.240
<v Speaker 1>wait for optionality so they can decide if they want

0:03:56.280 --> 0:04:00.680
<v Speaker 1>to do mix and match. Um, so a few places

0:04:00.720 --> 0:04:04.880
<v Speaker 1>are going ahead ahead. I'm not quite sure why they

0:04:04.920 --> 0:04:07.640
<v Speaker 1>They are ahead of the FDA and CDC on that,

0:04:07.800 --> 0:04:10.200
<v Speaker 1>but um, I think by the end of this week,

0:04:10.440 --> 0:04:13.800
<v Speaker 1>you will have that option. UM, the data is pretty

0:04:13.840 --> 0:04:17.480
<v Speaker 1>clear for people who had J and J vaccine to

0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:22.800
<v Speaker 1>go ahead and get a fisor Maderna booster. UM. Other

0:04:22.880 --> 0:04:25.680
<v Speaker 1>than that, it's not UM, it doesn't seem to be

0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:30.440
<v Speaker 1>that that. UM, it's great a difference, Okay, because that's

0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:32.599
<v Speaker 1>you know, we're we're being really specific because we're wondering

0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:34.400
<v Speaker 1>these are questions that we were talking about last night.

0:04:34.440 --> 0:04:36.360
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I've I've hit my six months from my

0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:38.920
<v Speaker 1>second shot, and I'm getting you know, bombarded, to be

0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:41.279
<v Speaker 1>quite honest, by emails of saying come get your booster,

0:04:41.760 --> 0:04:44.360
<v Speaker 1>and I'm not pretty sure that I meet all the criteria.

0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:47.440
<v Speaker 1>But I'm also thinking, you know, I'm trying to figure

0:04:47.440 --> 0:04:51.320
<v Speaker 1>out what to do, right I. UM, I haven't gotten

0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:53.279
<v Speaker 1>bombarded by emails, so I don't know what that says

0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:56.680
<v Speaker 1>about the pharmacy UM that I go to. Sorry, I

0:04:56.720 --> 0:05:02.960
<v Speaker 1>think get my original uh show from a mass vaccination site.

0:05:03.000 --> 0:05:06.360
<v Speaker 1>So maybe that's why, UM, the follow up hasn't been there.

0:05:06.800 --> 0:05:10.120
<v Speaker 1>But UM, but yes, I think, UM, for people who

0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:12.880
<v Speaker 1>had Visor and Maderna, there doesn't seem to be much

0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:16.320
<v Speaker 1>of a difference to get another visor and maderna mixer

0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:18.960
<v Speaker 1>match or whatever. I think it's important for people to

0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:23.880
<v Speaker 1>remember that, you know, these are different approaches, different vaccine companies,

0:05:23.960 --> 0:05:28.279
<v Speaker 1>but they are still targeting the same virus. Are trying

0:05:28.279 --> 0:05:31.159
<v Speaker 1>to stimulate your immune system to the same um the

0:05:31.200 --> 0:05:33.359
<v Speaker 1>same you know, the same virus, the same part of

0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:36.840
<v Speaker 1>the virus. And so uh, there there wasn't I wasn't

0:05:36.880 --> 0:05:39.680
<v Speaker 1>expecting to see much of a difference between these UM

0:05:39.920 --> 0:05:43.120
<v Speaker 1>mixing matches. Well, Dr Gronwell, in the last minute that

0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:44.760
<v Speaker 1>we have with you, help us understand what's going on

0:05:44.839 --> 0:05:47.360
<v Speaker 1>in the UK because for the first time since July

0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:51.440
<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen cases in the UK top fifty country certainly

0:05:51.440 --> 0:05:55.440
<v Speaker 1>seeing a surge there. What's going on. So it's always

0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:58.440
<v Speaker 1>hard to know exactly what's going on because you know,

0:05:58.520 --> 0:06:02.159
<v Speaker 1>there's public health is especially as we have all seen

0:06:02.440 --> 0:06:05.000
<v Speaker 1>with COVID. Uh, you know, there are lots of different

0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:09.919
<v Speaker 1>mitigation measures that are very unevenly applied. UM. But I

0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:15.920
<v Speaker 1>the vaccination rate for younger people is not good and UM,

0:06:16.040 --> 0:06:18.680
<v Speaker 1>and so they haven't they haven't. It's even less than

0:06:18.680 --> 0:06:22.320
<v Speaker 1>the United States, and and so that is where a

0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:26.120
<v Speaker 1>lot of the cases are coming from. And so we

0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:29.960
<v Speaker 1>all need to do better for younger populations. UM, because

0:06:30.000 --> 0:06:33.520
<v Speaker 1>they have they incurred more risks from COVID than they

0:06:33.560 --> 0:06:37.560
<v Speaker 1>certainly believe that they do. UM and uh. But you know,

0:06:37.640 --> 0:06:42.080
<v Speaker 1>hopefully we will see some improvement over those numbers. UM

0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:45.880
<v Speaker 1>and hopefully next week when children they're see starting to

0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:49.159
<v Speaker 1>get vaccinated in the coming weeks. Got it, we gotta run. Hey,

0:06:49.160 --> 0:06:51.680
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much, as always, Dr Gig Gronville or

0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:54.279
<v Speaker 1>John Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School

0:06:54.279 --> 0:06:58.800
<v Speaker 1>of Public Health. You're listening to Bloomberg Radio. This is

0:06:58.839 --> 0:07:02.760
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Where with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes

0:07:02.880 --> 0:07:07.159
<v Speaker 1>Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well the Bloomberg Big Take today.

0:07:07.200 --> 0:07:10.360
<v Speaker 1>It's also I think it's still the most read story

0:07:10.360 --> 0:07:12.800
<v Speaker 1>on the Bloomberg in the past eight hours at The

0:07:12.800 --> 0:07:15.080
<v Speaker 1>story also find online at Bloomberg Business Week. It's about

0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:17.240
<v Speaker 1>the hidden ways the ultra rich are passing well to

0:07:17.280 --> 0:07:21.080
<v Speaker 1>their heirs tax free. It's a great story about Phil

0:07:21.200 --> 0:07:23.240
<v Speaker 1>Knight and yes you know him as the co founder

0:07:23.240 --> 0:07:26.239
<v Speaker 1>of Nike. UM. We've got our own in house tax expert,

0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:29.160
<v Speaker 1>Ben Stepherman, his personal finance editor at Bloomberg News. He's

0:07:29.200 --> 0:07:32.120
<v Speaker 1>with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio, Ben. It

0:07:32.240 --> 0:07:35.480
<v Speaker 1>is just a great read. I actually got to read

0:07:35.520 --> 0:07:38.520
<v Speaker 1>it last night on my way home from the airport. Uh,

0:07:38.800 --> 0:07:41.120
<v Speaker 1>what is film Knight doing? Explain exactly what he's doing

0:07:41.160 --> 0:07:45.920
<v Speaker 1>with a gret Well, what we really haven't had a

0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:51.120
<v Speaker 1>view like this ever into how billionaires escaped the state tax.

0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:53.600
<v Speaker 1>And there's really nothing extraordinary about what film Knight is doing.

0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:56.840
<v Speaker 1>It's completely legal. Um. But what we've been able to

0:07:56.880 --> 0:08:00.200
<v Speaker 1>do is pull together some filings and really true prack

0:08:00.280 --> 0:08:03.880
<v Speaker 1>them over the years with help from Ander's Melon and

0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:06.920
<v Speaker 1>Devon and Devin Penalty in my colleagues, and we've really

0:08:07.000 --> 0:08:10.320
<v Speaker 1>been able to show how these tools, there's three or

0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:13.160
<v Speaker 1>four of them, that you put them together, these loopholes

0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:17.040
<v Speaker 1>and billions of dollars can be trans transferred tax free

0:08:17.120 --> 0:08:20.000
<v Speaker 1>to your heirs. Um. This is you know, the state

0:08:20.040 --> 0:08:22.800
<v Speaker 1>tax and gift tax. It's a related thing. They're supposed

0:08:22.800 --> 0:08:26.440
<v Speaker 1>to toll basically on every generation and it's supposed to

0:08:26.480 --> 0:08:31.280
<v Speaker 1>be something that fights inequality. Well, I think we could

0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:33.640
<v Speaker 1>show in this story that it's basically an optional tax. Now,

0:08:33.679 --> 0:08:35.160
<v Speaker 1>if you hire the right advisors, you don't have to

0:08:35.160 --> 0:08:37.320
<v Speaker 1>pay it, and it's legal, and he's not alone in

0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:40.680
<v Speaker 1>doing it totally. Joe Weber, editor of Bloomberg Business Week,

0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:43.120
<v Speaker 1>here with us as well. So how specifically do I

0:08:43.160 --> 0:08:47.280
<v Speaker 1>do this when I leave? We're taking this would be

0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:49.079
<v Speaker 1>a good problem to have. I don't think you have

0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:54.560
<v Speaker 1>a joke. So you never know what allowed us to

0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:59.280
<v Speaker 1>gain you know insights here that you know previously all

0:08:59.320 --> 0:09:01.000
<v Speaker 1>this stuff has been them, But like as you said that,

0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:03.680
<v Speaker 1>we haven't seen anybody bring it all together like this.

0:09:03.760 --> 0:09:06.880
<v Speaker 1>So what helped us get that bigger picture? Usually these

0:09:06.920 --> 0:09:09.000
<v Speaker 1>things are happening. We know these things are happening because

0:09:09.000 --> 0:09:10.559
<v Speaker 1>I've talked to the advisors who set them up, but

0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:13.000
<v Speaker 1>we don't know the dollars and cents attached them because

0:09:13.760 --> 0:09:16.440
<v Speaker 1>when these wealthy people do it, it's all secret. What

0:09:16.880 --> 0:09:18.880
<v Speaker 1>is different in this case is that Phil knight Is

0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:22.360
<v Speaker 1>is an officer. Well, he's a former chairman of and

0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:26.480
<v Speaker 1>he's the founder of Nike, a publicly traded company, and

0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:30.240
<v Speaker 1>um the company is now effectively controlled by a trust

0:09:30.559 --> 0:09:33.440
<v Speaker 1>that's controlled by his son, who's also on the board.

0:09:33.720 --> 0:09:36.040
<v Speaker 1>And because of that, they both have the requirement to

0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:40.400
<v Speaker 1>report their stakes in various entities that they control um

0:09:40.440 --> 0:09:42.560
<v Speaker 1>that have Nike stock in them. And so we've been

0:09:42.600 --> 0:09:46.920
<v Speaker 1>able to track all these trusts and um other transactions

0:09:46.960 --> 0:09:50.240
<v Speaker 1>that have have involved Nike shares over the last twelve years,

0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:53.520
<v Speaker 1>and and that really allowed us to tell the story. Okay,

0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:56.080
<v Speaker 1>so again I'm curious, if I walk out of here,

0:09:56.080 --> 0:09:59.400
<v Speaker 1>how do I how do? But okay, so not really

0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:04.040
<v Speaker 1>but not wrong. Um So, if Congress we're going to

0:10:04.080 --> 0:10:07.760
<v Speaker 1>do something, what would they do? The fixes are just

0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:10.840
<v Speaker 1>the simplest things like that. It's just a paragraph of

0:10:10.880 --> 0:10:13.400
<v Speaker 1>text in the tax law that the problem is not

0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:18.080
<v Speaker 1>closing these loopholes. It's um you know, legally, it's just

0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:20.600
<v Speaker 1>the political will to do it. You know. Basically what

0:10:20.640 --> 0:10:22.440
<v Speaker 1>we have a situation we have a stalemate over the

0:10:22.520 --> 0:10:25.199
<v Speaker 1>state tax where the Republicans have been trying to repeal it.

0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:28.719
<v Speaker 1>They really hate the idea of taxing uh wealth at

0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:31.360
<v Speaker 1>death and they call it the dex death tax. They've

0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:33.840
<v Speaker 1>been trying to repeal it. Under Trump, they just kind

0:10:33.840 --> 0:10:35.600
<v Speaker 1>of gave up and they said, hey, we're just gonna

0:10:35.679 --> 0:10:39.320
<v Speaker 1>let it be and allow these loopholes to exist. And

0:10:39.320 --> 0:10:44.520
<v Speaker 1>and therefore it basically becomes this optional tax for the wealthy.

0:10:44.559 --> 0:10:46.120
<v Speaker 1>So um, but you're asking how do you do it?

0:10:46.240 --> 0:10:48.920
<v Speaker 1>How do these things work? What's the common denominator? Really,

0:10:49.000 --> 0:10:52.000
<v Speaker 1>what this is all about is making your wealth look

0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:58.760
<v Speaker 1>smaller than it really is. Noble. Yeah, so, um, how

0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:01.520
<v Speaker 1>does night do that? Well, let's say you hand you

0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:05.360
<v Speaker 1>hand your airs a really valuable asset, and then they

0:11:05.400 --> 0:11:09.439
<v Speaker 1>hand you back and I owe you. And according to

0:11:09.480 --> 0:11:13.280
<v Speaker 1>the law, no actual money was transferred hands there, nothing

0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:16.079
<v Speaker 1>that wasn't a gift. It's just we're just swapping assets,

0:11:16.240 --> 0:11:18.120
<v Speaker 1>except the asset that I have is an I owe you.

0:11:18.600 --> 0:11:21.199
<v Speaker 1>It's not a normal transaction to any smart business person

0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:24.360
<v Speaker 1>whatever really make with a counterparty. But you can set

0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:27.360
<v Speaker 1>up these relationships with trust your heirs or with trust

0:11:27.360 --> 0:11:30.760
<v Speaker 1>controlled by your heirs, and they're legal, and it would

0:11:30.760 --> 0:11:33.719
<v Speaker 1>be very easy to ban these these deals. And as

0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:36.320
<v Speaker 1>a result, then in terms of taxation, how does that

0:11:36.400 --> 0:11:39.480
<v Speaker 1>kind of Well, let's say I give you what's in

0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:42.080
<v Speaker 1>this case, I give you Nike stock. Then Nike stock

0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:46.040
<v Speaker 1>goes up a thousand percent. All those gains can go

0:11:46.120 --> 0:11:49.880
<v Speaker 1>to your heirs and they're these special uh TOI mentioned grats.

0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:52.839
<v Speaker 1>There's these special tools called grats, which are really kind

0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:56.480
<v Speaker 1>of granta retained annuity trust. Yes, and and they work

0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:58.840
<v Speaker 1>a little bit like what I just described. But the

0:11:58.880 --> 0:12:00.880
<v Speaker 1>thing about a grat is if let's say I give

0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:03.959
<v Speaker 1>you an asset and the investment value goes down over time,

0:12:05.160 --> 0:12:07.240
<v Speaker 1>don't worry about it. Just scrap up that piece of paper,

0:12:07.360 --> 0:12:10.240
<v Speaker 1>ripping in half, and you can start over. Nothing ever happened.

0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:13.640
<v Speaker 1>You said, some of the ultra rich open one every month. Yeah. Yeah,

0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:15.880
<v Speaker 1>it's just you keep rolling the dice, rolling the dice,

0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:17.679
<v Speaker 1>rolling the dice, hope that you can and you don't

0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:21.080
<v Speaker 1>have to put it, put almost any investment in these things, um,

0:12:21.160 --> 0:12:23.600
<v Speaker 1>and just hope for the best. How much revenue do

0:12:23.600 --> 0:12:25.280
<v Speaker 1>we know? Do we know how much revenue the US

0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:28.079
<v Speaker 1>government misses as a result of a loophole such as this.

0:12:29.720 --> 0:12:33.600
<v Speaker 1>Put it this way, Um, only seventeen billion dollars, which

0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:35.559
<v Speaker 1>maybe sounds like a lot of money, but only seventeen

0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:37.839
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars comes in from the estate and gift tax.

0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:43.640
<v Speaker 1>There are Um, they're literally almost to the twenty richest

0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:48.880
<v Speaker 1>Americans have two trillion dollars almost so um the amount

0:12:48.920 --> 0:12:53.080
<v Speaker 1>that this should be coming in from this tax if

0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:56.880
<v Speaker 1>it was actually impost on every transfer of wealthy of

0:12:56.960 --> 0:12:58.679
<v Speaker 1>the top one point one percent, it would be a

0:12:58.760 --> 0:13:01.320
<v Speaker 1>lot lot more. Yeah. Uh And and to that end,

0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:03.280
<v Speaker 1>we do we have any sense I mean, Phil Knight

0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:07.120
<v Speaker 1>is a very uh prominent one that the story basically

0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:09.160
<v Speaker 1>is built around. Do we have a sense of how

0:13:09.160 --> 0:13:12.760
<v Speaker 1>many other billionaires might be using this exact same playbook? Um,

0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:16.040
<v Speaker 1>I would hazard to guess of almost every single one

0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:19.280
<v Speaker 1>are are using something that we describe in this story.

0:13:19.720 --> 0:13:22.160
<v Speaker 1>Maybe not all of them, maybe not in a sophisticated way.

0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:24.760
<v Speaker 1>The thing is Phil phil Knight could have transferred even

0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:27.760
<v Speaker 1>more money than he did, but he has these charitable intentions.

0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:29.680
<v Speaker 1>He says he's going to give most of his wealth

0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:33.360
<v Speaker 1>away eventually. So because if you're going to give money

0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:36.000
<v Speaker 1>to charity, it just becomes a lot easier to avoid

0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:39.160
<v Speaker 1>the taxes. And then that's intentional, that's not necessarily a loophole.

0:13:39.200 --> 0:13:42.480
<v Speaker 1>It's just the government wanted to encourage people to to

0:13:42.559 --> 0:13:45.280
<v Speaker 1>give to charity. And again, though, I mean, I feel

0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:47.960
<v Speaker 1>like it doesn't sound like there's any momentum to change it.

0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:51.320
<v Speaker 1>Well or is there? Yeah, we might have just created it.

0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:56.160
<v Speaker 1>We'll see. The House Democrats have a proposal, and um,

0:13:56.400 --> 0:13:59.040
<v Speaker 1>in a lot of ways they've they've scaled back Biden's

0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:02.600
<v Speaker 1>proposal tax proposals, but the one exception is this area

0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:04.600
<v Speaker 1>of the estate tax, and they are actually trying to

0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:06.319
<v Speaker 1>close a couple of these loopoles. It's gonna say. You

0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:09.760
<v Speaker 1>can see the headlines and the controversy over not doing something. Hey, Ben,

0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:11.840
<v Speaker 1>you and the team reached out to Nike and Phil Knight.

0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:15.600
<v Speaker 1>Any response. Um, what they've made quear is that all

0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:19.080
<v Speaker 1>these plans are integrated with his philanthropic goals. But no,

0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:21.520
<v Speaker 1>they didn't give us many more details than we then.

0:14:21.520 --> 0:14:23.440
<v Speaker 1>We had all these details in the story came from

0:14:23.440 --> 0:14:27.600
<v Speaker 1>our own reporting. You do it so well. Thank you.

0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:29.840
<v Speaker 1>You really do the details. Um, And as we said,

0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:32.000
<v Speaker 1>it's the most read story on the Bloomberg Find it

0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:33.760
<v Speaker 1>at business week dot com. I gotta go. I gotta go.

0:14:33.760 --> 0:14:37.480
<v Speaker 1>Set up my grap Joe. Maybe we can share lawyer

0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:41.720
<v Speaker 1>give me that and you know I'll reach out to

0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:44.960
<v Speaker 1>you from a beach. Sounds so simple, all right, We

0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:47.040
<v Speaker 1>gotta run, Joel. Thank you so much. Jill Webber, Editor

0:14:47.120 --> 0:14:49.680
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg business Week, Ben Steve Verman, personal finance editor at

0:14:49.680 --> 0:14:52.960
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News. As we said, find it online at business

0:14:53.000 --> 0:15:00.440
<v Speaker 1>week dot com. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Is Week

0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:04.400
<v Speaker 1>with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on

0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:07.680
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. Alright, so top of mine at the Milk

0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:10.280
<v Speaker 1>and Institute Global Conference. Who had so many conversations there

0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:12.840
<v Speaker 1>on the West coast. We've got our TV team out

0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:19.120
<v Speaker 1>there at the coast of outside Los Angeles. Long be right?

0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:21.880
<v Speaker 1>Just about the supply chain problems? Yeah, I know, I know.

0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:26.040
<v Speaker 1>The synapsies aren't there the ports, the two ports are

0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:30.160
<v Speaker 1>very close together, nice together, and together they do account

0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:33.200
<v Speaker 1>for a great portion of the traffic. The common theme

0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:36.120
<v Speaker 1>here is supply chain disruptions and constraints, and we see

0:15:36.120 --> 0:15:39.000
<v Speaker 1>it big time as companies report their latest quarterly updates

0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:41.200
<v Speaker 1>and as our Josh winn Grove reports, the clock is

0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:43.520
<v Speaker 1>definitely ticking in the efforts by the Biden administration to

0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:46.400
<v Speaker 1>smooth out the bottlenecks. Their tool chest, to Tim a

0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:49.080
<v Speaker 1>little bit limited. Josh wyn Grove, his White House correspondent

0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:51.840
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg News. He's with us from the Bloomberg studio

0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:55.680
<v Speaker 1>in Washington, d C. Josh, what power does the Biden

0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:58.640
<v Speaker 1>administration have? What tools do they have in order to

0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:02.200
<v Speaker 1>help fix this law? Jem Well I guess depends on

0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:04.480
<v Speaker 1>you at on who you ask, But overall it's sort

0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:07.480
<v Speaker 1>of like Joe Biden is a dad driving a station

0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:09.880
<v Speaker 1>way and you know, threatening to pull this car over

0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:13.880
<v Speaker 1>right away if you yeah, people don't behave like they

0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:16.920
<v Speaker 1>have got this. Everyone's calling it a bully pulpit power,

0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:19.280
<v Speaker 1>which is another way of saying, I suppose name and shame.

0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:21.880
<v Speaker 1>They can either be the referee, they can get people

0:16:21.920 --> 0:16:24.600
<v Speaker 1>in a room, crack some heads together if needed. And

0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:26.400
<v Speaker 1>that's sort of the approach they're taking, and that's what

0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:29.120
<v Speaker 1>led to that deal to move these ports. Seven. Of

0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:32.560
<v Speaker 1>course that is only marginally uh, making a difference and

0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:35.280
<v Speaker 1>difference until we get more other things going on. Every

0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:37.520
<v Speaker 1>time Josh we hear that, we're like, what do you mean,

0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:42.720
<v Speaker 1>why weren't they already? Like what is that? Well, there's

0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:45.240
<v Speaker 1>no point in picking up a thing at three am

0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:47.360
<v Speaker 1>if therehouse you're taking them two is closed, you know,

0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:49.520
<v Speaker 1>and the warehouses are closed at that hour. And so

0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:52.240
<v Speaker 1>these truck drivers, it's important, these truck port truck drivers

0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:54.880
<v Speaker 1>have a raw deal. I mean, it is not a

0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:57.920
<v Speaker 1>not a coveted position. And so we're wondering, well, why

0:16:57.960 --> 0:17:00.360
<v Speaker 1>aren't there enough truck drivers. Well, gee, they're quitting because

0:17:00.400 --> 0:17:02.760
<v Speaker 1>the pay and conditions are crumbing, and they're even crumbing

0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:04.720
<v Speaker 1>or when things are backed up because they're sitting there unpaid,

0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:06.960
<v Speaker 1>waiting for their things. They talked about that a little bit, Josh,

0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:09.040
<v Speaker 1>because that's something I learned reading your story that you

0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:11.520
<v Speaker 1>that that is available at Bloomberg dot com and on

0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:13.720
<v Speaker 1>the terminal. It's it's not like the it's not like

0:17:13.760 --> 0:17:16.679
<v Speaker 1>a trucking job for another firm. These are not unionized

0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:19.600
<v Speaker 1>and um, like you said, pretty crumbing. Yeah. Then there's

0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:23.840
<v Speaker 1>been a bunch of suggestions put forward by various industries,

0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:26.639
<v Speaker 1>you know, either long running regulatory battles that they're picking,

0:17:27.000 --> 0:17:29.159
<v Speaker 1>the supply chain crisis is a new sort of front

0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:31.720
<v Speaker 1>to wage these long running battles. But the only thing

0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:34.119
<v Speaker 1>the teamsters have said, getting to your question, Tim, is

0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:36.680
<v Speaker 1>this is they think Joe Biden should help these guys

0:17:36.760 --> 0:17:40.760
<v Speaker 1>unionize these drivers excuse me, unionized, And Joe Biden hasn't

0:17:40.760 --> 0:17:43.040
<v Speaker 1>said anything about that, so we'll see what that happens.

0:17:43.040 --> 0:17:45.320
<v Speaker 1>But essentially, they are the bottom rung of the ladder

0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:48.280
<v Speaker 1>of the trucking industry. The pay is not great, the

0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:51.280
<v Speaker 1>trucks are driving, or you know in some cases, you know,

0:17:51.400 --> 0:17:54.520
<v Speaker 1>they're very thin margins. Shall we say, you know, let's

0:17:54.600 --> 0:17:56.720
<v Speaker 1>let's you know, they're they're barely holding on. This is

0:17:56.760 --> 0:17:58.840
<v Speaker 1>it's a rough job. And if they can get a

0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:02.560
<v Speaker 1>job sort of either a unionized place or you're working

0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:05.119
<v Speaker 1>for a bigger company with better conditions, more predictable hours,

0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:07.040
<v Speaker 1>they're going to take it. It's no surprise. Help me,

0:18:07.040 --> 0:18:10.240
<v Speaker 1>help me though. Support drivers, how are they different from

0:18:10.359 --> 0:18:12.360
<v Speaker 1>the long haul drivers we see on the road when

0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:15.560
<v Speaker 1>we're on a highway drive or something. What's the difference. Well,

0:18:15.600 --> 0:18:19.080
<v Speaker 1>they're all treated or typically treated as independent contractors, and

0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:21.600
<v Speaker 1>that means that they get paid either by the mile

0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:23.520
<v Speaker 1>or by the shipment, but is opposed by the hour.

0:18:23.640 --> 0:18:25.919
<v Speaker 1>So when they're sitting there waiting to pick up you

0:18:25.920 --> 0:18:27.600
<v Speaker 1>know it's there, it's on their time, it's not on

0:18:27.720 --> 0:18:29.639
<v Speaker 1>They're not gonna paid for that, and that's not great, right,

0:18:29.680 --> 0:18:31.760
<v Speaker 1>And so there's not a lot of incentive for someone

0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:34.080
<v Speaker 1>to hurry them up there they're so they have no

0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:36.520
<v Speaker 1>choice but to sit there and wait for their their

0:18:36.600 --> 0:18:38.880
<v Speaker 1>their container, and when they get it, they we don't

0:18:38.920 --> 0:18:40.879
<v Speaker 1>have enough chassis, which of course is a little essentially

0:18:40.920 --> 0:18:43.800
<v Speaker 1>trailers that pull these these things around and you know,

0:18:43.880 --> 0:18:46.040
<v Speaker 1>you go every step down the ladder, it gets harder.

0:18:46.080 --> 0:18:48.200
<v Speaker 1>The warehouses are full, the yards are full. We don't

0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:52.880
<v Speaker 1>have enough of these containers. We don't have containers going

0:18:52.920 --> 0:18:55.840
<v Speaker 1>back full. In a lot of cases, ships pile up

0:18:55.840 --> 0:18:58.600
<v Speaker 1>empty containers and you know, hahull butt back to Asia

0:18:58.640 --> 0:19:00.600
<v Speaker 1>if you will, because they can get more money for

0:19:00.760 --> 0:19:02.199
<v Speaker 1>filling them there and bring them back to the u S.

0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:04.080
<v Speaker 1>So a lot of moving parts on this, but it

0:19:04.200 --> 0:19:07.200
<v Speaker 1>is a tough one. Tough one to parts in terms

0:19:07.200 --> 0:19:10.680
<v Speaker 1>of certainly quick fixes, but even structural fixes will take

0:19:10.680 --> 0:19:13.200
<v Speaker 1>a long time. So they're different from an Amazon driver

0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:15.400
<v Speaker 1>that we see on the road or a Walmart driver

0:19:15.480 --> 0:19:17.240
<v Speaker 1>that we see on the road, although many of those drivers,

0:19:17.280 --> 0:19:20.640
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure in California used to maybe maybe had come

0:19:20.880 --> 0:19:24.080
<v Speaker 1>up through the ranks of being a port port truck driver.

0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:26.240
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it is a it's it's it's rough. It

0:19:26.320 --> 0:19:30.040
<v Speaker 1>is the bottom rung. They have not been treated particularly well.

0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:33.120
<v Speaker 1>And that you know now they're sort of even even

0:19:33.160 --> 0:19:36.119
<v Speaker 1>getting a rare deal because when things are slowing up,

0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:38.440
<v Speaker 1>the only people are person not getting paid to sit

0:19:38.480 --> 0:19:40.879
<v Speaker 1>there in the gridlock is that truck driver. The you know,

0:19:40.920 --> 0:19:44.439
<v Speaker 1>the dock workers getting paid, you know, the railway workers

0:19:44.440 --> 0:19:47.040
<v Speaker 1>getting paid. The truck driver isn't getting paid well, Josh.

0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:49.200
<v Speaker 1>As a result of all these challenges that you're describing,

0:19:49.720 --> 0:19:52.520
<v Speaker 1>shipping prices have just rise dramatically. It now costs as

0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:54.960
<v Speaker 1>much as twenty five thousand dollars to import a fort

0:19:55.320 --> 0:19:57.919
<v Speaker 1>container from Asia. That's up from less than two thousand

0:19:58.000 --> 0:20:03.000
<v Speaker 1>dollars two years ago, more than ten x in price

0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:06.440
<v Speaker 1>of shipping. So politically, where does where does the president stand?

0:20:06.440 --> 0:20:09.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean, you see Republicans coming in with with uh

0:20:10.200 --> 0:20:12.919
<v Speaker 1>going full full court press on Biden because of these

0:20:13.000 --> 0:20:15.199
<v Speaker 1>rising prices. Yeah, and they're you know, tying it in

0:20:15.200 --> 0:20:17.760
<v Speaker 1>with the inflation issues we're seeing and that that is

0:20:18.359 --> 0:20:20.600
<v Speaker 1>of course expected. I mean you're like, why am I

0:20:20.600 --> 0:20:22.359
<v Speaker 1>talking to a white this reporter about this is because

0:20:22.359 --> 0:20:25.080
<v Speaker 1>it's becoming a problem for Joe Biden, you know, And

0:20:25.119 --> 0:20:27.760
<v Speaker 1>it's that and so we're gonna see if he can

0:20:27.800 --> 0:20:29.720
<v Speaker 1>do it now. You know, Look, this is gonna boil

0:20:29.760 --> 0:20:31.280
<v Speaker 1>down if you watch Fox News, this is going to

0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:34.160
<v Speaker 1>be the worst crisis of you know, of supply chains ever.

0:20:34.480 --> 0:20:36.080
<v Speaker 1>But what it's gonna boil down to is you're gonna

0:20:36.080 --> 0:20:38.439
<v Speaker 1>wait more for certain goods than others. And it's not

0:20:38.480 --> 0:20:40.879
<v Speaker 1>so much that there's gonna be a lack of goods

0:20:40.920 --> 0:20:43.680
<v Speaker 1>across the board. In other words, the toy stores shelves

0:20:43.720 --> 0:20:45.240
<v Speaker 1>will be full, you just might not be able to

0:20:45.240 --> 0:20:47.480
<v Speaker 1>get the toy that you want. And that that's going

0:20:47.520 --> 0:20:49.240
<v Speaker 1>to be, you know, a political issue. So we'll see

0:20:49.240 --> 0:20:52.360
<v Speaker 1>where that goes. The backdrop for all of us to remember,

0:20:52.600 --> 0:20:54.480
<v Speaker 1>we're buying more stuff than ever before. This is not

0:20:54.520 --> 0:20:57.439
<v Speaker 1>a system that is failing to handle the normal amount

0:20:57.440 --> 0:20:59.720
<v Speaker 1>of stuff. It is record stuff, even with all this

0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:02.919
<v Speaker 1>great blocket, his record amounts of stuff for range of reasons,

0:21:02.960 --> 0:21:05.080
<v Speaker 1>one being the American consumer is more powerful than ever.

0:21:05.440 --> 0:21:07.240
<v Speaker 1>Another one is we're spending money on stuff instead of

0:21:07.280 --> 0:21:09.760
<v Speaker 1>experiences because of the pandemic, and so were we are

0:21:09.880 --> 0:21:13.760
<v Speaker 1>force feeding record amounts of stuff through what the Biden

0:21:13.760 --> 0:21:17.119
<v Speaker 1>administration calls you know, your grandfather's system, like you know,

0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:21.320
<v Speaker 1>an antiquated, creaky old piece of infrastructure, system of infrastructure

0:21:21.760 --> 0:21:24.000
<v Speaker 1>and you know, low and behold, it ain't it ain't

0:21:24.040 --> 0:21:28.120
<v Speaker 1>going very well. Wait wait, hashtag infrastructure perhaps times that's infrastructure.

0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:31.520
<v Speaker 1>You know that there is money reports in the Infrastructure bill,

0:21:31.560 --> 0:21:34.040
<v Speaker 1>which of course is the one of the two bills

0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:36.879
<v Speaker 1>of Biden is, you know, pushing to get a deal

0:21:36.920 --> 0:21:39.400
<v Speaker 1>on right now. So as they water down that build back,

0:21:39.480 --> 0:21:42.679
<v Speaker 1>better build that reconciliation package. The hope is that if

0:21:42.720 --> 0:21:44.879
<v Speaker 1>they can get both through that there'll be money for

0:21:45.119 --> 0:21:47.560
<v Speaker 1>money reports in that other one. If Donald Trump gets

0:21:47.640 --> 0:21:50.320
<v Speaker 1>his social media channel up and going, you know, it

0:21:50.359 --> 0:21:54.400
<v Speaker 1>will be the most the toughest crisis ever. I mean,

0:21:54.720 --> 0:21:59.720
<v Speaker 1>we're all looking forward to that. I'm sure. It makes

0:21:59.720 --> 0:22:01.879
<v Speaker 1>it interesting. It makes it interesting. Yeah, I got our

0:22:01.960 --> 0:22:03.879
<v Speaker 1>nef and notifications on my phone. I suppose one more

0:22:03.920 --> 0:22:07.639
<v Speaker 1>couldn't hurt right. Pilot on Pilot on Josh. Thank you

0:22:07.680 --> 0:22:10.240
<v Speaker 1>so much, Josh wyn Grove. It's a great story. It's

0:22:10.280 --> 0:22:13.320
<v Speaker 1>so in depth, explains the supply chain crunch that we're

0:22:13.320 --> 0:22:15.600
<v Speaker 1>seeing right now. He is Bloomberg News White House correspondent.

0:22:15.720 --> 0:22:17.520
<v Speaker 1>There in our night and I want Studio in d C.

0:22:18.080 --> 0:22:21.679
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

0:22:21.760 --> 0:22:26.800
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. So folks

0:22:26.800 --> 0:22:29.200
<v Speaker 1>were talking Pinterest. We're talking PayPal, aren't we, Tim? We are?

0:22:29.240 --> 0:22:31.080
<v Speaker 1>I mean this was a head scratcher to me when

0:22:31.280 --> 0:22:34.520
<v Speaker 1>our own Leanna Baker and Ed Hammond yesterday broke the

0:22:34.560 --> 0:22:37.760
<v Speaker 1>news that PayPal was interested in acquiring Pinterest. We saw

0:22:37.800 --> 0:22:40.680
<v Speaker 1>pinterest stock shoot up as a result. Jenny Seraine shed

0:22:40.760 --> 0:22:44.800
<v Speaker 1>some light on what exactly PayPal could do, and it

0:22:44.960 --> 0:22:47.920
<v Speaker 1>has to do with ambitions to create a super app.

0:22:48.880 --> 0:22:51.520
<v Speaker 1>China's Ali pay and we Chat. Jenny is with us

0:22:51.640 --> 0:22:53.920
<v Speaker 1>right now. She's finance reporter for Bloomberg. Knew she's with

0:22:53.960 --> 0:22:56.320
<v Speaker 1>us in the Bloomberg and actor Broker's studio. So if

0:22:56.320 --> 0:22:59.240
<v Speaker 1>we look to China and what these Chinese companies have

0:22:59.280 --> 0:23:00.720
<v Speaker 1>done with these so called super aps, what does that

0:23:00.800 --> 0:23:03.719
<v Speaker 1>tell you about the paypals potential ambitions if it were

0:23:03.760 --> 0:23:06.680
<v Speaker 1>to acquire a Pinterest. Yeah. I think it's so hard

0:23:06.720 --> 0:23:10.720
<v Speaker 1>sometimes for Americans to really conceive of what China has

0:23:10.760 --> 0:23:13.439
<v Speaker 1>going on. But it's really a one stop shop. You

0:23:13.440 --> 0:23:15.480
<v Speaker 1>can do everything. You can do social media, you can

0:23:15.480 --> 0:23:18.080
<v Speaker 1>go shopping, you can do investing, you can have your

0:23:18.080 --> 0:23:21.159
<v Speaker 1>bank account. It's it's everything. And so PayPal has actually

0:23:21.200 --> 0:23:23.800
<v Speaker 1>been really vocal that they want to do something similar

0:23:23.840 --> 0:23:26.840
<v Speaker 1>here in the US. Um you know, there's CEO Dan Shulman.

0:23:26.880 --> 0:23:29.120
<v Speaker 1>He talks a lot about being a destination app. So

0:23:29.400 --> 0:23:32.159
<v Speaker 1>instead of having fifty or sixty different apps on your

0:23:32.200 --> 0:23:34.040
<v Speaker 1>phone that you have to go to. He thinks that

0:23:34.080 --> 0:23:35.760
<v Speaker 1>there's going to be five or six, and he wants

0:23:35.800 --> 0:23:37.600
<v Speaker 1>PayPal to be one of those five or six that

0:23:37.640 --> 0:23:39.399
<v Speaker 1>you kind of go to on a daily basis, like

0:23:39.440 --> 0:23:43.240
<v Speaker 1>an aggregator, right exactly, I think, but but an aggregator.

0:23:43.280 --> 0:23:44.879
<v Speaker 1>But I think he wants it to all be in

0:23:44.920 --> 0:23:47.640
<v Speaker 1>the PayPal house. So you know, pinters are no pinters.

0:23:47.640 --> 0:23:50.040
<v Speaker 1>I think this is definitely the path they've been on,

0:23:50.119 --> 0:23:51.760
<v Speaker 1>and we've seen them at a lot of new and

0:23:51.800 --> 0:23:55.439
<v Speaker 1>interesting things lately. Ahead this is a hard thing to

0:23:55.480 --> 0:23:57.879
<v Speaker 1>do because this is not new for an American company

0:23:57.880 --> 0:24:00.119
<v Speaker 1>trying to do this. Years ago. David Marcus, who as

0:24:00.119 --> 0:24:03.320
<v Speaker 1>ago at Facebook, headed up Messenger when they split off

0:24:03.359 --> 0:24:06.040
<v Speaker 1>Messenger from Facebook. I'm talking years ago. He talked about

0:24:06.040 --> 0:24:07.880
<v Speaker 1>wanting to create a super app. Then Jenny and look

0:24:07.880 --> 0:24:10.600
<v Speaker 1>at Messenger now it's no super app. Yes, So super

0:24:10.640 --> 0:24:12.480
<v Speaker 1>apps have come and gone, lots of them in the

0:24:12.560 --> 0:24:15.359
<v Speaker 1>U S. We've I think we've we're yeah, we're littered

0:24:15.400 --> 0:24:17.920
<v Speaker 1>with failures on this front um and so we haven't

0:24:17.920 --> 0:24:19.480
<v Speaker 1>been able to pull it off. And a lot of

0:24:19.520 --> 0:24:22.720
<v Speaker 1>times folks point to like consumer preferences. Consumers in the

0:24:22.800 --> 0:24:25.080
<v Speaker 1>U S seemed to really like kind of having their

0:24:25.119 --> 0:24:27.240
<v Speaker 1>their one app for finance, their one app for social media,

0:24:27.280 --> 0:24:30.040
<v Speaker 1>they're one app for shopping. Um. So you know, Amazon

0:24:30.080 --> 0:24:32.600
<v Speaker 1>has tried, Google has tried. So many folks have tried

0:24:32.960 --> 0:24:34.800
<v Speaker 1>um and we really haven't seen anything to get pulled

0:24:34.800 --> 0:24:36.720
<v Speaker 1>off here. Well, is there something that we can learn

0:24:36.800 --> 0:24:39.680
<v Speaker 1>from looking at the success in China that says, okay, yes,

0:24:39.720 --> 0:24:42.840
<v Speaker 1>it can be replicated here in the United States, Or

0:24:42.920 --> 0:24:46.920
<v Speaker 1>are the way Chinese approach maybe things different from how

0:24:47.040 --> 0:24:50.640
<v Speaker 1>the US approach things. I think it's it's so hard

0:24:50.680 --> 0:24:52.840
<v Speaker 1>to say it. I mean, it definitely seems like US

0:24:52.880 --> 0:24:56.000
<v Speaker 1>consumers have shown their preference so far, but we haven't

0:24:56.000 --> 0:24:57.639
<v Speaker 1>really seen anyone go at it in the way that

0:24:57.640 --> 0:25:00.240
<v Speaker 1>PayPal is going at it. So you know, PayPal US

0:25:00.320 --> 0:25:03.479
<v Speaker 1>have four hundred million users already, UM, and they've just

0:25:03.520 --> 0:25:07.239
<v Speaker 1>slowly tacked things on. Absolutely, So they've slowly tacked things on.

0:25:07.280 --> 0:25:09.080
<v Speaker 1>So you've seen them this year get into crypto. You know,

0:25:09.119 --> 0:25:11.360
<v Speaker 1>you can buy a cell and hold crypto. Um. You've

0:25:11.400 --> 0:25:14.200
<v Speaker 1>seen them, you know, talk about adding highled savings. They're

0:25:14.200 --> 0:25:17.160
<v Speaker 1>gonna get into stock investing, so they're kind of slowly

0:25:17.200 --> 0:25:20.280
<v Speaker 1>bolting on, and they're starting from that financial services perspective,

0:25:20.320 --> 0:25:22.080
<v Speaker 1>which you know, a lot of the other times like

0:25:22.160 --> 0:25:24.920
<v Speaker 1>Messenger for example, or an Amazon, they'd be coming at

0:25:24.960 --> 0:25:26.960
<v Speaker 1>it from other angles and trying to tack on the

0:25:27.240 --> 0:25:30.159
<v Speaker 1>finance piece. I think that's harder to do. Um. So

0:25:30.160 --> 0:25:32.639
<v Speaker 1>we'll see, we'll see what people uh, what people has

0:25:32.680 --> 0:25:35.159
<v Speaker 1>in its sleeve. But I think, you know, it's an

0:25:35.200 --> 0:25:38.440
<v Speaker 1>interesting play. Well, how does Pinterest fit into this? Then? Yes,

0:25:38.480 --> 0:25:41.399
<v Speaker 1>so Pinterest is a unique among the social media folks, right,

0:25:41.440 --> 0:25:45.879
<v Speaker 1>So they have and for forty billion dollars, nice healthy

0:25:45.880 --> 0:25:48.240
<v Speaker 1>premium for those guys. So, but they're unique in the

0:25:48.280 --> 0:25:50.399
<v Speaker 1>sense that, um, you know, what people talks a lot

0:25:50.440 --> 0:25:53.040
<v Speaker 1>about is wanting to be at the beginning of the

0:25:53.040 --> 0:25:55.240
<v Speaker 1>shopping journey. So they don't want to be the thing

0:25:55.320 --> 0:25:56.840
<v Speaker 1>that you click on at the very end when you're

0:25:56.840 --> 0:25:58.760
<v Speaker 1>about to check out. They will just come back and

0:25:59.119 --> 0:26:02.359
<v Speaker 1>kind of be along the way. So Pinterest would give

0:26:02.400 --> 0:26:04.199
<v Speaker 1>them that. You know, people go to Pinterest and they're like,

0:26:04.240 --> 0:26:06.560
<v Speaker 1>I want to buy some cowboy boots, and and they

0:26:06.600 --> 0:26:08.720
<v Speaker 1>look and see what there is and and then they

0:26:08.800 --> 0:26:11.160
<v Speaker 1>have added capabilities in recent years where you can click

0:26:11.200 --> 0:26:14.480
<v Speaker 1>and shop directly from the pins um, so you could see,

0:26:15.240 --> 0:26:17.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, a somewhat of a synergy there. It's but

0:26:17.560 --> 0:26:19.760
<v Speaker 1>it's definitely a field. It's it's definitely not what you

0:26:19.800 --> 0:26:21.840
<v Speaker 1>think of when you think of PayPal. So it would

0:26:21.880 --> 0:26:25.240
<v Speaker 1>be a big leap. Is it too fragmented though already

0:26:25.480 --> 0:26:27.840
<v Speaker 1>with a lot of big players that are actually doing

0:26:27.880 --> 0:26:30.040
<v Speaker 1>it fairly well, that it would be tough to see

0:26:30.640 --> 0:26:35.159
<v Speaker 1>the model pivot so significantly different. They're gonna have a

0:26:35.160 --> 0:26:37.320
<v Speaker 1>lot of convincing to do. They're definitely going to have

0:26:37.400 --> 0:26:40.000
<v Speaker 1>to teach and and kind of ingrain a new behavior

0:26:40.040 --> 0:26:43.000
<v Speaker 1>into consumers. Now, they have been super successful at doing

0:26:43.040 --> 0:26:45.679
<v Speaker 1>that in the online checkout space. They're like buy and

0:26:45.800 --> 0:26:48.439
<v Speaker 1>far away the the leader in that space. So they have,

0:26:48.640 --> 0:26:50.959
<v Speaker 1>you know, a track record in terms of convincing folks

0:26:51.000 --> 0:26:53.399
<v Speaker 1>to to kind of come around their way of doing things.

0:26:53.840 --> 0:26:55.399
<v Speaker 1>But this is a big leap, and this is a

0:26:55.400 --> 0:26:57.840
<v Speaker 1>big change. Well, and then who's the other aggregate or

0:26:58.000 --> 0:27:00.320
<v Speaker 1>I shouldn't use the word aggregated, but okay, you said

0:27:00.320 --> 0:27:01.760
<v Speaker 1>that there might be four or five of them than

0:27:01.920 --> 0:27:05.479
<v Speaker 1>is Google? Is it faced? Like who like? And then

0:27:05.520 --> 0:27:07.280
<v Speaker 1>how do we think of the world? I mean, I

0:27:07.280 --> 0:27:09.359
<v Speaker 1>think all of those folks would love to be a

0:27:09.400 --> 0:27:12.320
<v Speaker 1>super ab and even if they've you know, tried and

0:27:12.359 --> 0:27:14.119
<v Speaker 1>failed in the past, I think it's probably still on

0:27:14.160 --> 0:27:16.240
<v Speaker 1>the table for them. You can't not look at the

0:27:16.280 --> 0:27:19.320
<v Speaker 1>success that folks like Ali pay and we Chat pay

0:27:19.320 --> 0:27:22.440
<v Speaker 1>have had um and probably and not think to yourself,

0:27:22.480 --> 0:27:24.359
<v Speaker 1>I want that. I want I want folks coming to

0:27:24.440 --> 0:27:27.360
<v Speaker 1>my site, you know, ten twenty whatever times a day,

0:27:27.800 --> 0:27:30.200
<v Speaker 1>um and doing so many things that are our revenue

0:27:30.200 --> 0:27:34.439
<v Speaker 1>generating and all that. So I think they definitely you

0:27:34.480 --> 0:27:36.600
<v Speaker 1>can't not look at what's going on in China and

0:27:36.760 --> 0:27:39.679
<v Speaker 1>India and Singapore and not want it. But you just

0:27:39.680 --> 0:27:42.560
<v Speaker 1>don't have the consumer behavior quite here yet exactly. It's

0:27:42.680 --> 0:27:45.440
<v Speaker 1>consumer behavior is such a challenge here, right because we're

0:27:45.440 --> 0:27:48.000
<v Speaker 1>so used to just tapping credit cards or even putting

0:27:48.000 --> 0:27:49.840
<v Speaker 1>our credit cards on our cards on our phone. And

0:27:49.880 --> 0:27:52.200
<v Speaker 1>how does PayPal get people Jenny and twenty seconds to

0:27:52.760 --> 0:27:54.720
<v Speaker 1>use the app to pay for something when using your

0:27:54.720 --> 0:27:57.119
<v Speaker 1>credit card or tapping your phone is just as easy. Yeah,

0:27:57.160 --> 0:27:59.879
<v Speaker 1>it's interesting because the US we were so far ahead

0:28:00.040 --> 0:28:01.919
<v Speaker 1>in terms of you know, back in the nineties and

0:28:01.960 --> 0:28:04.400
<v Speaker 1>early two thousands adopting credit cards and it's like put

0:28:04.480 --> 0:28:06.920
<v Speaker 1>us back almost so now the rest of the world

0:28:07.040 --> 0:28:09.720
<v Speaker 1>is completely passed us by UM. Tap to pay is

0:28:09.720 --> 0:28:11.920
<v Speaker 1>totally old, but you know we're just now coming around

0:28:11.920 --> 0:28:13.760
<v Speaker 1>to that. So well, we talked about that with fintech

0:28:13.800 --> 0:28:15.800
<v Speaker 1>where I talked about it this pale I didn't milk.

0:28:15.880 --> 0:28:17.399
<v Speaker 1>And when it comes to healthcare, that this idea of

0:28:17.480 --> 0:28:21.280
<v Speaker 1>using the phone and emerging markets to help UM in

0:28:21.400 --> 0:28:23.800
<v Speaker 1>terms of healthcare access, like they're ahead of us in

0:28:23.840 --> 0:28:26.760
<v Speaker 1>the thinking. Great stuff as always, Jenny Surraine, she's our

0:28:26.760 --> 0:28:28.720
<v Speaker 1>financial reporter at Bloomberg News. Check her out on the

0:28:28.720 --> 0:28:32.080
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg terminal and at Bloomberg dot com. This is Bloomberg Radio.

0:28:32.960 --> 0:28:36.960
<v Speaker 1>I'm yeah, but you let me drive. Oh no, no,

0:28:37.040 --> 0:28:46.400
<v Speaker 1>no no, this is not a travel I want to drive.

0:28:47.280 --> 0:28:53.280
<v Speaker 1>It's a good question. Good drive is good? Drive to

0:28:53.400 --> 0:28:59.360
<v Speaker 1>the globe on Bloomberg Radio. All right, let's get to it.

0:28:59.400 --> 0:29:02.400
<v Speaker 1>We've done just about timmans left in the today's trading session.

0:29:02.480 --> 0:29:04.600
<v Speaker 1>We are hovering near our best levels of the session.

0:29:04.640 --> 0:29:07.560
<v Speaker 1>Looks like a record on the S and P five

0:29:07.640 --> 0:29:09.920
<v Speaker 1>hundred now still just up about eight points. As we

0:29:09.960 --> 0:29:12.520
<v Speaker 1>heard from Charlie down on the Dow, we are seeing

0:29:12.520 --> 0:29:15.080
<v Speaker 1>some pressure thanks to IBM naszac though also an AT

0:29:15.080 --> 0:29:17.560
<v Speaker 1>performer on a percentage basis, up five times of a percent.

0:29:17.760 --> 0:29:20.640
<v Speaker 1>Let's drive to the grows with Chris Zacarelli, chief investment

0:29:20.680 --> 0:29:24.080
<v Speaker 1>officer at independent advisor Alliance I joining us on the

0:29:24.080 --> 0:29:26.560
<v Speaker 1>phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Chris, it's great to have

0:29:26.680 --> 0:29:30.160
<v Speaker 1>you on Bloomberg Business Week Radio. A month ago we

0:29:30.160 --> 0:29:32.680
<v Speaker 1>were talking about inflationary worries, and here we are at

0:29:32.720 --> 0:29:36.400
<v Speaker 1>record highs again. What's going on? Looks like the market

0:29:36.480 --> 0:29:38.680
<v Speaker 1>is strugging off a little bit of the concerns about

0:29:38.800 --> 0:29:41.560
<v Speaker 1>higher interest rates. For now. We're seeing you know, break

0:29:41.640 --> 0:29:44.200
<v Speaker 1>evens jump a lot higher, but nominal yields, you know,

0:29:44.280 --> 0:29:48.680
<v Speaker 1>staying staying pretty firm right around. So I think for now,

0:29:48.720 --> 0:29:51.640
<v Speaker 1>stock investors feel like the inflation that we're seeing so

0:29:51.680 --> 0:29:54.480
<v Speaker 1>far is going to be manageable by companies and profit

0:29:54.520 --> 0:29:57.200
<v Speaker 1>margins aren't gonna be squeezed too much. We'll see if

0:29:57.240 --> 0:29:59.840
<v Speaker 1>that is a is a true forecast or if markets

0:29:59.880 --> 0:30:02.320
<v Speaker 1>be a little too sanguine about everything. Well, it's interesting, right,

0:30:02.360 --> 0:30:04.320
<v Speaker 1>and this is where those earnings reports are so important.

0:30:04.680 --> 0:30:06.560
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna share a little bit of a statistics that

0:30:06.560 --> 0:30:08.480
<v Speaker 1>we've got on the Bloomberg and it says that of

0:30:08.520 --> 0:30:10.760
<v Speaker 1>the ninety companies and the S and P five hundreds

0:30:10.800 --> 0:30:14.040
<v Speaker 1>of announced results in the third quarter posted better than

0:30:14.040 --> 0:30:17.520
<v Speaker 1>expected earnings compared to eight for the whole season a

0:30:17.600 --> 0:30:22.200
<v Speaker 1>year ago, one year ago. As for revenues topped that

0:30:22.240 --> 0:30:27.000
<v Speaker 1>compares to six respective excuse me, a year ago. So

0:30:27.120 --> 0:30:32.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean, not too shabby. No, companies are doing very well.

0:30:32.320 --> 0:30:36.560
<v Speaker 1>They're increasing sales, they're maintaining their profit margins. It's boom

0:30:36.560 --> 0:30:39.440
<v Speaker 1>times for for US corporations. And so the question is,

0:30:39.480 --> 0:30:42.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, how long will that last? Well, you guys

0:30:42.480 --> 0:30:46.320
<v Speaker 1>have to make decisions right and figure out investment strategies

0:30:46.320 --> 0:30:48.360
<v Speaker 1>and portfolio How long do you think it will last.

0:30:48.360 --> 0:30:51.800
<v Speaker 1>Do you think that these supply chain constraints are going

0:30:51.840 --> 0:30:56.080
<v Speaker 1>to be manageable and not go on forever? Well, I

0:30:56.080 --> 0:30:58.120
<v Speaker 1>would think, you know, by definition, a lot of these

0:30:58.320 --> 0:31:01.400
<v Speaker 1>supply chain constraints and all out of the inflationary pressures,

0:31:01.440 --> 0:31:04.160
<v Speaker 1>at some point they are going to resolve themselves. I

0:31:04.160 --> 0:31:06.480
<v Speaker 1>think a lot of people were hopeful that they would

0:31:06.480 --> 0:31:10.480
<v Speaker 1>resolve by the end of early two. I think most

0:31:10.520 --> 0:31:13.000
<v Speaker 1>people in the market are a little bit more cautious.

0:31:13.040 --> 0:31:15.120
<v Speaker 1>I think that they think that supply chain issues could

0:31:15.200 --> 0:31:17.840
<v Speaker 1>last possibly for a couple of years. Hopefully on the

0:31:17.840 --> 0:31:20.720
<v Speaker 1>transportation side of things it resolves more quickly. But you

0:31:20.800 --> 0:31:24.080
<v Speaker 1>look at things like, uh, you know, shortages of semiconductors,

0:31:24.280 --> 0:31:27.040
<v Speaker 1>which are so critical for almost every product in the

0:31:27.080 --> 0:31:29.840
<v Speaker 1>economy right now, and you know, we're being told that

0:31:29.920 --> 0:31:32.680
<v Speaker 1>to bring new production online and really ramp up to

0:31:32.680 --> 0:31:34.120
<v Speaker 1>where we need to be, that could take a couple

0:31:34.120 --> 0:31:36.680
<v Speaker 1>of years. So we do think that these problems are

0:31:36.720 --> 0:31:38.320
<v Speaker 1>gonna be with us for longer than many of us

0:31:38.320 --> 0:31:40.760
<v Speaker 1>had hoped, even as as recently as six months ago. Well,

0:31:40.800 --> 0:31:43.760
<v Speaker 1>it's interesting because we're seeing companies like Procter and Gamble

0:31:43.840 --> 0:31:46.640
<v Speaker 1>take a hit to their bottom line as a result,

0:31:46.720 --> 0:31:50.080
<v Speaker 1>and companies like Unilever raising prices as a result of

0:31:50.120 --> 0:31:52.560
<v Speaker 1>this is we do continue to get earnings from more

0:31:52.600 --> 0:31:54.400
<v Speaker 1>and more companies. Chris, what are you looking for to

0:31:54.440 --> 0:31:59.480
<v Speaker 1>see whether inflation is transitory or if it's something that's temporary. Well,

0:31:59.480 --> 0:32:01.920
<v Speaker 1>for us, you know, we've we've definitely been a little

0:32:01.920 --> 0:32:04.720
<v Speaker 1>skeptical of the idea that everything was transitory from the

0:32:04.800 --> 0:32:06.640
<v Speaker 1>from the inflation front. You know, I think we all

0:32:06.760 --> 0:32:09.200
<v Speaker 1>understand a lot of that dynamics that were caused by

0:32:09.240 --> 0:32:11.880
<v Speaker 1>COVID that that in and of themselves have to be

0:32:12.200 --> 0:32:15.680
<v Speaker 1>uh somewhat temporary, but but clearly there's a lot building

0:32:15.760 --> 0:32:18.280
<v Speaker 1>up into the into the input costs, into the into

0:32:18.360 --> 0:32:20.320
<v Speaker 1>the supply chains. And again, like we said, you know

0:32:20.360 --> 0:32:22.160
<v Speaker 1>things like some may conductors are gonna last a little

0:32:22.160 --> 0:32:24.480
<v Speaker 1>bit longer. So for us, we are really looking for

0:32:24.520 --> 0:32:27.240
<v Speaker 1>those companies that are gonna have pricing power. And you

0:32:27.320 --> 0:32:29.720
<v Speaker 1>just gave two good examples of some companies are able

0:32:29.720 --> 0:32:32.360
<v Speaker 1>to raise prices. Other companies are having to eat some

0:32:32.440 --> 0:32:35.040
<v Speaker 1>of those costs. And that's why, you know, everyone will

0:32:35.080 --> 0:32:36.640
<v Speaker 1>say the biggest clice say in the book, which is

0:32:36.640 --> 0:32:39.160
<v Speaker 1>it's a stock pickers market. And as an acting manager,

0:32:39.200 --> 0:32:42.680
<v Speaker 1>you always want to say that behind those companies, yeah,

0:32:42.680 --> 0:32:44.320
<v Speaker 1>you hear it a lot. But to the extent that

0:32:44.360 --> 0:32:46.560
<v Speaker 1>you can find those companies with pricing power and do

0:32:46.720 --> 0:32:49.440
<v Speaker 1>have competitive modes around their business, you know, we're really

0:32:49.440 --> 0:32:52.120
<v Speaker 1>going to see which companies actually do have a moat

0:32:52.160 --> 0:32:54.720
<v Speaker 1>around their business and which companies may have strong brand

0:32:54.800 --> 0:32:57.080
<v Speaker 1>names like some of these consumer staples, but don't have

0:32:57.120 --> 0:32:59.720
<v Speaker 1>as much of a mote as investors thought, or probably

0:32:59.720 --> 0:33:01.760
<v Speaker 1>the come themselves thought. That's where the proof and the

0:33:01.760 --> 0:33:03.640
<v Speaker 1>pudding is going to be over the next few months,

0:33:03.640 --> 0:33:05.680
<v Speaker 1>if not a few quarters. Hey, Chris, quick question, So

0:33:05.720 --> 0:33:07.920
<v Speaker 1>what if um? You know, what's interesting is we've got

0:33:07.960 --> 0:33:10.880
<v Speaker 1>stocks up minus the dow, though we know that a

0:33:10.880 --> 0:33:12.240
<v Speaker 1>lot of that is because of what's going on with

0:33:12.280 --> 0:33:16.000
<v Speaker 1>IBM today. But if I look at the yield curve today,

0:33:16.040 --> 0:33:17.479
<v Speaker 1>and if I look at what's going on in the ten,

0:33:17.560 --> 0:33:19.960
<v Speaker 1>five and two, we see yields kind of back up

0:33:20.200 --> 0:33:22.120
<v Speaker 1>to some of their highest levels, certainly of the day.

0:33:22.200 --> 0:33:25.160
<v Speaker 1>Got that five year going up to above one point too.

0:33:25.640 --> 0:33:27.960
<v Speaker 1>That's the hya sins February of twenty. We don't often

0:33:28.400 --> 0:33:31.240
<v Speaker 1>it's interesting to see higher yields and yet we're also

0:33:31.280 --> 0:33:35.160
<v Speaker 1>seeing higher equity gains. Is it just okay? On economy

0:33:35.200 --> 0:33:39.200
<v Speaker 1>is growing, it's manageable. We understand the supply chain constraints

0:33:39.200 --> 0:33:42.280
<v Speaker 1>and why that's pushing prices higher. But if this means

0:33:42.320 --> 0:33:46.480
<v Speaker 1>that the FED tends to raise rates sooner rather than later,

0:33:47.080 --> 0:33:51.440
<v Speaker 1>what does that mean for the equity markets? Potentially? So

0:33:51.600 --> 0:33:55.160
<v Speaker 1>if the Fed begins raising rates more comply the market expects,

0:33:55.440 --> 0:33:57.880
<v Speaker 1>all things being aqual you'd expect that to be a negative.

0:33:58.000 --> 0:34:00.000
<v Speaker 1>And so I don't know that the market really believes

0:34:00.040 --> 0:34:02.480
<v Speaker 1>they are going to raise rates so quickly. Clearly the

0:34:02.480 --> 0:34:04.480
<v Speaker 1>taper is going to be announced next month. It would

0:34:04.480 --> 0:34:06.520
<v Speaker 1>be a shock if they didn't do that. And and

0:34:06.600 --> 0:34:09.719
<v Speaker 1>based on based on most people's base cases and ours included,

0:34:10.040 --> 0:34:12.799
<v Speaker 1>you figure they wrap up tapering by the end of

0:34:12.880 --> 0:34:15.359
<v Speaker 1>let's say June of next year's call it somewhere mid

0:34:17.120 --> 0:34:19.680
<v Speaker 1>the FED if they get their way, they're gonna want

0:34:19.760 --> 0:34:21.880
<v Speaker 1>to see unemployments just continue to go lower. And I

0:34:21.920 --> 0:34:23.680
<v Speaker 1>think there's a real reluctance on the part of the

0:34:23.719 --> 0:34:26.719
<v Speaker 1>FED to begin raising rates even if you heard um,

0:34:26.760 --> 0:34:29.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, President Memester yesterday and so a lot of

0:34:29.600 --> 0:34:32.160
<v Speaker 1>different people who have been speaking. They're really trying to

0:34:32.200 --> 0:34:35.479
<v Speaker 1>divorce the idea of tapering from rate hikes, and so

0:34:35.719 --> 0:34:37.879
<v Speaker 1>you know, inflation is what's going to force their hand.

0:34:37.920 --> 0:34:40.160
<v Speaker 1>That's that's the trillion dollar question, and I wish I

0:34:40.200 --> 0:34:42.879
<v Speaker 1>had the answer for you today. But if inflation runs

0:34:42.880 --> 0:34:45.160
<v Speaker 1>hotter than everyone expects, the seed is just gonna happen

0:34:45.160 --> 0:34:47.520
<v Speaker 1>to start raising rates more quickly. But if inflation stays

0:34:47.600 --> 0:34:51.239
<v Speaker 1>somewhat manageable above two percent, but not on a straight path,

0:34:51.320 --> 0:34:54.560
<v Speaker 1>the five on a continuous basis, I think the fed

0:34:54.600 --> 0:34:57.280
<v Speaker 1>is gonna want to rate, wait to raise to raise rates,

0:34:57.440 --> 0:34:59.160
<v Speaker 1>and the market may be surprised that they don't raise

0:34:59.239 --> 0:35:01.200
<v Speaker 1>rates in to it all and they wait till January

0:35:01.960 --> 0:35:04.160
<v Speaker 1>three would be a positive surprise record. So Chris, how

0:35:04.200 --> 0:35:06.480
<v Speaker 1>do you how do you play this environment? Just in

0:35:06.520 --> 0:35:09.520
<v Speaker 1>thirty seconds? Yep. So the way we're trying to play

0:35:09.560 --> 0:35:11.680
<v Speaker 1>it is to have some balance. We've had growth in

0:35:11.719 --> 0:35:14.680
<v Speaker 1>our portfolios all along. That was great last year, adding

0:35:14.680 --> 0:35:17.560
<v Speaker 1>some cyclicles, adding some values, which we've done at the

0:35:17.640 --> 0:35:19.879
<v Speaker 1>end of last year and throughout this year as we've

0:35:19.920 --> 0:35:22.200
<v Speaker 1>had time, get more balanced than your portfolios. You need

0:35:22.200 --> 0:35:24.200
<v Speaker 1>to have financials, you need to have materials, you need

0:35:24.239 --> 0:35:27.759
<v Speaker 1>to have energy, uh, into some extent industrials balance those

0:35:27.760 --> 0:35:30.759
<v Speaker 1>portfolios out. So many people are overweight technology and that

0:35:30.880 --> 0:35:32.919
<v Speaker 1>was great last year. That may not be so good

0:35:32.920 --> 0:35:36.040
<v Speaker 1>this year or into two. All right, we're gonna run. Hey, listen,

0:35:36.080 --> 0:35:38.960
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much, really appreciated. Chris Ecarelli, the chief

0:35:38.960 --> 0:35:42.880
<v Speaker 1>investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, joining us on the

0:35:42.920 --> 0:35:47.800
<v Speaker 1>phone from Charlotte, North Carolina. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg

0:35:47.840 --> 0:35:51.520
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg

0:35:51.600 --> 0:35:53.439
<v Speaker 1>dot com. And you can also listen to our radio

0:35:53.440 --> 0:35:56.080
<v Speaker 1>show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch

0:35:56.120 --> 0:36:02.279
<v Speaker 1>us on YouTube. Sarah to Bloomberg Global News a m.