1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:08,160 Speaker 2: I'm gonna just about that action also. All right, here 3 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:08,399 Speaker 2: we go. 4 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 1: We're throwing in so spect, we're sitting it to cash touchtop. 5 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 1: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they 6 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 1: go to winning. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 2: That's incredible being bank, small bank, I like to make money. 8 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,960 Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kabine. 9 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 1: You want to and we are underway. Welcome into the 10 00:00:34,800 --> 00:00:38,480 Speaker 1: Action Network Podcast. We're back for NFL Best Bets. Getting 11 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:42,560 Speaker 1: set for week nine. Brendan Glaschen joined by Brandon Anderson. 12 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 1: He's our featured NFL contributor here for best Bets. You 13 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 1: can find Brandon Anderson in the free award winning Action 14 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 1: Network app picks there, not just for this week, but awards, futures, 15 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: et cetera that he'll be adding throughout the season, even 16 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: picks going back earlier in the year. If you find 17 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 1: some value taking a look at those, be sure to 18 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 1: do so along with his articles, of course in the 19 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: Action Network app Actionnetwork dot Com. Three best Bets surrounding 20 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 1: Players player props. We have a lightning round of sides 21 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 1: and totals, and then we'll do a couple a couple 22 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 1: of look aheads from Brandon for week ten, So let's 23 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:25,680 Speaker 1: dive in your best bet number one. Please, this is 24 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: your best bet. 25 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, first one is actually one of my favorite bets 26 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 2: of the year so far. I am loving Devin a 27 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 2: chain this week against the Bells, So I'm gonna take 28 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:41,959 Speaker 2: his over receiving yards thirty two and a half. That 29 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 2: is the basis here. But I'm also gonna play the 30 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 2: over three and a half receptions and then we're gonna 31 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 2: build a little escalator here. The super escalator did not 32 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 2: go well last week. Jordan Love got injured for us. 33 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 2: We're gonna build a little a chain chan super escalator. 34 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 2: So we tease this a little bit. Sunday night, right, 35 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 2: we talked about how much better has been with Tua. 36 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 2: This is a really big game for Miami two and 37 00:02:04,440 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 2: five at Buffalo. They got to have this to save 38 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 2: the season. But Buffalo has won twelve of thirteen against Miami. 39 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 2: And why does that matter here? It matters because Buffalo 40 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 2: has defended this McDaniel offense really well. They play a 41 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 2: lot too high safety, they get rid of the explosives. 42 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 2: They force you to, you know, matriculate the ball down 43 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:28,559 Speaker 2: the field. And that is not Miami Dolphins football However, 44 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,959 Speaker 2: it is seven eight Chan football because what that results 45 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:35,920 Speaker 2: in that style of defense for Buffalo, there's a lot 46 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 2: of checkdowns running backs. Buffalo has allowed the most running 47 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 2: back receptions and the most running back receiving yards in 48 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:46,639 Speaker 2: the NFL this season fifty one catches already four and 49 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 2: thirty four yards eighth chan last week, six for fifty 50 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 2: in the other two games, seven for seventy six and 51 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 2: seven for sixty nine. So six plus catches every game 52 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,640 Speaker 2: and averaging sixty five yards a game for a whole 53 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 2: season with two oh would be a pace of one 54 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 2: hundred and thirteen catches for eleven hundred yards. This is 55 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 2: a receiver and a running back all in one. This 56 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 2: is why we're so high on him. Before the season. 57 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 2: He's caught twenty of twenty two targets, so these are 58 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 2: a lot of just short passes in the slot that 59 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 2: he's just bmwn ah chan Afterward, with no TUA, twelve 60 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 2: targets in four games, nine catches, forty nine yards. It 61 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 2: did not go well for him, and I think honestly 62 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:30,280 Speaker 2: for Miami, this is your best chance for an explosive too. 63 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 2: You're not gonna get it down the field, just get 64 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 2: it to your guys short and let them do the 65 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 2: explosive play. So here's where we're going. Over thirty two 66 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 2: and a half receiving yards. Again, A Chance had fifty 67 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 2: plus yards all three two of games. That's what we're 68 00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 2: doing as our data here. Bills will allowed twenty five 69 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 2: receiving yards to running back seven times already, So love 70 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 2: the over thirty two and a half. Obviously, we're playing 71 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 2: fifty plus yards plus two thirty that's I think what 72 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 2: the line should be. Again, A Chan's done that all 73 00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 2: three to two of games. I think this line is 74 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 2: just not adjusting for that. Receptions over three and a half. 75 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 2: The Bills have allowed three or more receptions to a 76 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,880 Speaker 2: running back nine times already this season. That's more than 77 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 2: one per game. A Chan is getting six or seven 78 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 2: every game. Again, I think that line is way too low. 79 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 2: Five catches for fifty yards plus three fifty. The Bills 80 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 2: have allowed that four times already to running backs, one 81 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:24,600 Speaker 2: of them to eight Chan when they played back a 82 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 2: little over a month ago. So we're gonna play that 83 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:29,719 Speaker 2: as well. And then the last part of the escalator. 84 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 2: I'm still kind of deciding, still piecing this together. But 85 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 2: a couple options for you to keep an eye on. 86 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:38,119 Speaker 2: The app seventy yards. Remember he's averaged sixty five yards 87 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,599 Speaker 2: a game receptions sixty nine to one game seventy six 88 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 2: and one game seventy yards is plus five seventy five, 89 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,719 Speaker 2: So definitely gonna touch that a little bit. Ninety yards. 90 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 2: He hasn't gotten to yet, but it's thirteen to one. 91 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 2: That's a standard escalator play for like a point one 92 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 2: unit or something. And then on the receptions seven plus receptions, 93 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 2: I see a five to one out there. He's done 94 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 2: that two games and missed it by one the other one. 95 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 2: So I'm playing most all of this stuff. I'm playing 96 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:06,480 Speaker 2: the over thirty two and a half. I'm gonna play 97 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:08,919 Speaker 2: the over three and a half receptions. This is one 98 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 2: of my favorite players the year. I'mna end up like 99 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 2: two and a half three units all in on this one, 100 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 2: so we'll touch them all and hopefully a Chan has 101 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 2: another big receiving game. 102 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: Okay, and the bills are five and a half point favorites. 103 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 1: You figure maybe a trailing game script as well that 104 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 1: suits this kind of game for Tua. His binky if 105 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 1: you will, and know he's got hill and waddle but 106 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 1: also in a trailing script that that bodes well. I think, 107 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 1: you know, if anything, Mike McDaniel's gonna take a look, 108 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 1: believe it or not, at some Jets film how they 109 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 1: got Brease Hall going in the passing game. 110 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:41,719 Speaker 2: Yeah, Reese is another one of the guys that had 111 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 2: the five and fifty already this year, one of the 112 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 2: four with h Chan. That's another thing too, worth noting. 113 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,440 Speaker 2: I agree with the game script thing. This might be 114 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 2: a few I don't do a lot of live props, 115 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:53,159 Speaker 2: partly because I can't give them out on this show. 116 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 2: Just might be a live prop angle too. I've seen 117 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 2: several times where we're getting the two minute drill before halftime, 118 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,679 Speaker 2: Chen hasn't done much and suddenly catches like three passes 119 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 2: on one drive and gets thirty forty fifty yards down 120 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 2: the field. So this could be one where don't panic 121 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 2: if your bets in and we're mid second quarter and 122 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 2: we're not there yet. We still got some of those 123 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 2: two minute drives. But if you are a live prop better, 124 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 2: this might be a spot for you to get in 125 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:19,559 Speaker 2: in a by low situation as well, especially like Brandon said, 126 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 2: if the game script is there, I think I like 127 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 2: this in either game script. That's part of why I. 128 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: Like to play Corac. This is not a hold your 129 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: nose running back situation because the discombobulated Dallas Cowboys defense 130 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 1: has been a theme outside. You know, everything gets made 131 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:40,600 Speaker 1: about McCarthy and Prescott in Lamb and Prescott their symmetry, 132 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 1: but there's an angle against Dallas's defense. You're turning to 133 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:45,039 Speaker 1: Bijon Robinson. 134 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:47,600 Speaker 2: I am I'm gonna take Bijon. Just take his over. 135 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:49,720 Speaker 2: On the rushing yards, it's seventy three and a half 136 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 2: right now, give me that plus a touchdown, it's plus 137 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 2: one forty six together. You alluded to this. There are 138 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:58,159 Speaker 2: ugly running back trio. Did not go well for me 139 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 2: last week. I went out on three and ugly run. 140 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 2: So that's why I'm leading with props today with not 141 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:06,080 Speaker 2: ugly players. I'm picking the guys that I know are 142 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 2: good and I'm having them do good stuff. That's the 143 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 2: play today. Bijon's good, a Chan's good. We're getting another 144 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 2: good player on the third one. Ugly running backs last 145 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 2: week all three got stuffed inside the one like they 146 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 2: were like, hey, great play. It was good in theory, 147 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 2: but we suck. You forgot about how we suck. Okay, 148 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:28,679 Speaker 2: Bjeon Robinson doesn't suck. He's really good and he looks 149 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 2: the part this year. And I think in this game 150 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 2: Falcons Cowboys Atlanta offense is the only unit actually trust 151 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 2: in this game, especially running the football against Dallas. Dallas 152 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:42,800 Speaker 2: run d number thirty by DVOA. This might be one 153 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:45,840 Speaker 2: of those games, right, We've seen those games from the 154 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 2: Cowboys where that run defense can not get off the field. 155 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:54,679 Speaker 2: All right, Hello, Bijon Robinson, Hello Tyler lgear Helloway. Run 156 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 2: first offensive line that's really been playing well this year. 157 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 2: Can Dak pass on them? Probably not if he's not 158 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 2: in the field, though not if Atlanta has like thirty 159 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 2: five to forty minutes of possession. I think that's the 160 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 2: angle we might be getting here. Dallas has been number 161 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 2: two in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs 162 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,880 Speaker 2: if you look at just Dallas losses. Here's some of 163 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 2: the lines we've seen. Gorenda last week fourteen carries eighty 164 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 2: five yards in a score. Montgomery, we played that one 165 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 2: eighty yards, two scores. Derrick Henry one hundred and fifty 166 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 2: one on twenty five carries, two scores, Alvin Kamara one 167 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:35,199 Speaker 2: hundred and fifteen yards four touchdowns that game. If Dallas loses, 168 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 2: I love this play. Even if they don't lose, I 169 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 2: still like it. Bajon just ran for over one hundred 170 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 2: yards and a score two weeks ago in a loss, 171 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:46,839 Speaker 2: so he's hit a touchdown three straight four in the 172 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:49,439 Speaker 2: last three games. He's running about as well as anyone 173 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 2: right now. Just like the talent pops. You'll watch him 174 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 2: and you're like, man, this guy. You remember the old 175 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 2: Barry Sanders. We'd hand it off and it's like he 176 00:08:57,120 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 2: runs fifty yards to game two and it's just like 177 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 2: the most big tacular play of the game. Jean has 178 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 2: that quality about him. Right now. He's averaging sixty eight 179 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:07,440 Speaker 2: yards a game, so seventy three and a half here, 180 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,439 Speaker 2: a little bit above the average, but we're playing Dallas, 181 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 2: so I'm fine with that. Give me the over rushing 182 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 2: yards plus a score plus one forty second. 183 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 1: We're recording on Thursday, Halloween. Michael Parsons did not practice Wednesday. 184 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 1: He's the glue to that defense. And just you know, 185 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:25,200 Speaker 1: Mike Zimmer has had so many issues getting these guys. 186 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 1: He's had to shuffle the deck constantly with these guys. 187 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 1: But the other thing too with Robinson, the offensive coordinator, 188 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 1: Zach Robinson, he's offensive mind Shanahan. Last week you go 189 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 1: back even more to Ben Johnson in Detroit. Just I 190 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 1: don't think there's no there's any formula. So you got 191 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: good coaching. I think on your side here too, Robinson 192 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 1: one of the big names in the coaching circuit at 193 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: offensive coordinator for Raheem Morris and the Atlanta Falcons. And 194 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:51,199 Speaker 1: we're gonna go back to receiver for your best bet, 195 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:53,440 Speaker 1: number three, AJ Brown. 196 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, guys who do not suck. AJ Brown does not suck. 197 00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 2: Let's go with him. Let's take the receiving yards over 198 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:02,360 Speaker 2: seventy five and a half and we'll get to a 199 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 2: couple escalators on it. Eagles offense finally got going last week, 200 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 2: and don't I know it had the under did not 201 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:10,680 Speaker 2: go well for me. They put up a lot of 202 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 2: points on the Bengals. I think if you look at 203 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 2: the Eagles right now, just a note here is a 204 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,319 Speaker 2: pretty good spot to invest in Eagles futures if you 205 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 2: want to do it. They're a little bit overlooked right now. 206 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:24,959 Speaker 2: They're five and two. Our guy Anthony Dubundo, now we're 207 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:27,720 Speaker 2: at the ringer talked about Jalen Hurts for MVP twenty 208 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:30,839 Speaker 2: to one. There's a really nice stretch of subpar pass 209 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 2: defenses coming up, starting with Jacksonville, which we'll get to here. 210 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 2: AJ Brown, I mentioned before, that's our pick here Offensive 211 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 2: Player of the Year AJ Brown one hundred to one. 212 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 2: Still at a book out there. I still think that 213 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 2: is worth investing in. If you're doing it, you have 214 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:49,559 Speaker 2: to do it before this game, because that's the whole point. 215 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 2: Jacksonville's defense is awful. They are last in the league 216 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 2: by DVOA, their last in the league pass defense. We 217 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:00,679 Speaker 2: played them with your guy, Drake May. We've played them 218 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:02,840 Speaker 2: a couple of times. Now, you know, we got to 219 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 2: play them with AJ Brown, who shreds anyone he faces. 220 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:12,040 Speaker 2: Jacksonville this season has allowed twenty seven yards or more 221 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:15,319 Speaker 2: on a catch twenty times already, two and a half 222 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 2: times a game. They're allowing just a rip down the field. 223 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:21,840 Speaker 2: AJ Brown has a twenty nine plus catch every single 224 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 2: game that he's played this season, only four so far, 225 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:27,080 Speaker 2: but that's pretty good if you want to just do 226 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 2: the longest catch over twenty five and a half. I 227 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 2: don't mind that I tried that with Jamar Chase didn't 228 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 2: go well for me, so I'm just going to do 229 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:34,440 Speaker 2: the yards here. I think Aj might get a couple 230 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 2: of big plays. He's had in his four games eighty 231 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 2: four plus yards every single game, so he's cleared this 232 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 2: line every game this season. He's scored a touchdown three 233 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 2: out of the four. He's had a forty plus yard 234 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 2: catch three out of the four also, so I think 235 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 2: we might get just a really big play here. Since 236 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 2: the start of last season, this over seventy five and 237 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 2: a half line is just too low. He's gone over 238 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 2: that fourteen of twenty games since the start of last season, 239 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:01,440 Speaker 2: seventy percent hit rate on this now and then to 240 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 2: the Escalators one hundred plus yards at plus two fifteen. 241 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 2: One hundred yards has not been a hard thing for 242 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 2: Aj Brown again the same span. He's done that nine 243 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:13,319 Speaker 2: out of twenty games since started last season. That's almost 244 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:16,080 Speaker 2: half of them. So that line is way off. One 245 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 2: hundred and fifty yards is ten to one. That's a 246 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:20,680 Speaker 2: little out of reach for him usually, but just you know, 247 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:22,320 Speaker 2: light touch on that one if you're going to play 248 00:12:22,320 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 2: the Escalator. I really like the Eagles here actually through 249 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 2: MINA seven and a half. I'm not playing the seven 250 00:12:27,960 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 2: and a half. I love this for a teaser if 251 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 2: you want to play a teaser this week. This is 252 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 2: one of my favorite teaser legs we've seen in a 253 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 2: couple of weeks. I might pair it with Chiefs Monday 254 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 2: night and get that below the field goal. That's a 255 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:43,200 Speaker 2: pretty good spot Bengals. If t Higgins plays would be 256 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 2: Mather pick. I looked at that here. I think Eagles 257 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:49,119 Speaker 2: teaser is a strong spot too. But this pick officially 258 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 2: AJ Brown over seventy five and a half receiving yards 259 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 2: one hundred plus at two point fifteen as well, and 260 00:12:56,320 --> 00:12:57,680 Speaker 2: we'll hope for a big AJ day. 261 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 1: Lightning round consists of sides and totals aside a public 262 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 1: side the Sharps, according to our Action Network pro Labs 263 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 1: the Pro report, folks like green Bay at home against Detroit, 264 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 1: but you like the Lions minus three see the Conder 265 00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 1: Lightning Rounder. 266 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the Lions minus three, and I'm gonna 267 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:22,560 Speaker 2: address that at the top to a lot of love 268 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 2: for the Packers here minus three. A lot of people 269 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:27,840 Speaker 2: got a minus three and a half at home. Start 270 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:29,559 Speaker 2: to come back a little bit, So let's start there 271 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,080 Speaker 2: you see the minus three and a half or the 272 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 2: plus three and a half I guess for the Packers 273 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:36,959 Speaker 2: the minus three and a half road favorite that I 274 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 2: think is a trap. If you look in our bet 275 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 2: lab system, favorites of exactly three and a half points, 276 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 2: so just right above that key number, if the totals 277 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 2: forty two or higher, so we're not expecting a really 278 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:51,320 Speaker 2: low scoring game. The favorite is sixty percent against the 279 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:54,199 Speaker 2: spread over the last two decades. That is a trap 280 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:58,320 Speaker 2: spot that I think books are asking you, begging you. Look. Look, 281 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:00,959 Speaker 2: it's just about the key number. Take the underdog here. 282 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 2: It's not gone though. Well here's another thing you're in here. 283 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:04,840 Speaker 2: From a lot of sharps this week. I've heard it 284 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 2: on our podcast. It's a good point. Jared Goff outdoors finally, 285 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 2: the first outdoor game of the season. It looks windy, 286 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 2: we might get some rain. I think the Jared Goff 287 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 2: outdoors thing is maybe misstated. Here's what I think. Jared 288 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 2: Goff indoors with Detroit is phenomenal. He's thirty and nine 289 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 2: ats in that spot you want to back Jared Goff 290 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 2: of the lines there. Jared Goff not in that spot 291 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:35,760 Speaker 2: is five hundred ats. Now that's not great. I'm not 292 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 2: running to bet Jared Goff outdoors, but you're supposed to 293 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 2: be five hundred ats Like that's the whole point of 294 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,440 Speaker 2: a spread, will be fifty percent. If you're fifty to 295 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 2: fifty on something, that's not a trend, that's a nothing. 296 00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 2: So I don't think Jared Goff is bad outdoors. I 297 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 2: think Jared Goff is great indoors. Those are not the 298 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 2: same things, So those game me pause. But past those things, 299 00:14:57,480 --> 00:14:59,680 Speaker 2: I think the lines are just better at just what everything. 300 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 2: So the season. I think they're better running and passing. 301 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 2: I think they're better offense and defense. I think they're 302 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 2: significantly better on special teams. We just saw that last 303 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 2: week with Detroit against Tennessee. They're number one in DBOA 304 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 2: on special teams. That's been a weak spot for the 305 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 2: Packers for years, so that's a big thing. I think Packers' defense, 306 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 2: though they've improved, is still the weak link in the game. 307 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:25,440 Speaker 2: Lion's defense. Do I trust them, Well, yes and no. 308 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 2: I trust the run defense. I trust Alee McNeil and 309 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 2: DJ Reader up the middle. If you want to beat Detroit, 310 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:35,280 Speaker 2: I think they're beatable. You got to beat them passing. 311 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 2: No Aid Hutchinson beatable corners. You got to beat them passing. 312 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 2: So Jordan Love my guy. I have the MVP ticket 313 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 2: on him. Jordan Love is limited right now. He practiced, 314 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 2: just says we're going to record. He's out there practicing, 315 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 2: he's getting injured. Groin. I think people are giving a 316 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 2: little too much credit to what Jordan Love could be 317 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 2: or if he's out, Like, oh, Malik Willis is number 318 00:15:57,280 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 2: one on EPA and CPOE. That's no Willis. I'm still 319 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 2: Malik Willis. We had like sixty snaps of Malik Willis, 320 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 2: mostly against not great teams, mostly from a favorable script. 321 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 2: I'm not ready to. 322 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:13,400 Speaker 1: A part of me Titans last week Jaguars. I forget 323 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: the third game. 324 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 2: I think Colts. I think I think he just gets 325 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:18,880 Speaker 2: to play the all AFC South teams. So forgive me 326 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 2: for not believing the Malik Willis and forgive me for 327 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:24,640 Speaker 2: not believing in limited mobility Jordan Love, who don't forget 328 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 2: have the other injury that he's still not healed from 329 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 2: and importantly green bands by next week. So I think 330 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 2: Love maybe tries to play here, but does he finish 331 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 2: the game. I'm not so sure he does. And back 332 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:39,520 Speaker 2: to the bad weather outdoors thing. All right, so we 333 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 2: know the Jared Goff thing. If there's bad weather outdoors, 334 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 2: what happens? You run the football? Why don't I want 335 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 2: the really good offensive line and the really good run 336 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 2: game with two good running backs running the football. Lions 337 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 2: are six and one ats in the first half. They 338 00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:57,200 Speaker 2: have led five straight first halves at halftime by fifteen 339 00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 2: points a game, double digits every one of them. To me, 340 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:04,720 Speaker 2: this is a Lion's script. Ugly weather, injured, other quarterback 341 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 2: or backup, you run the ball, you take the lead, 342 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:11,080 Speaker 2: You play Lions football. This is exactly what Dan Campbell 343 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:14,360 Speaker 2: wants it to be. I think if you like this angle, 344 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:17,920 Speaker 2: I don't mind if you'd rather play Detroit's division outs 345 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,880 Speaker 2: at minus one thirty. If you get this one right, 346 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,000 Speaker 2: Detroit already beat Minnesota, they beat Green Bay. They're in 347 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:25,720 Speaker 2: a pretty good position. If you get it wrong and 348 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 2: they lose, you still have outs. The Lions could still 349 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 2: win the division later, so it gives you some flexibility there. 350 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 2: I'll take the minus three if you only have the 351 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 2: minus three and a half available. We talked about it. 352 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 2: I don't mind the minus three and a half or 353 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 2: wait and play live perhaps, But for this official pick 354 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 2: Detroit minus three and Captain Public. Let's ride all right? 355 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:51,200 Speaker 1: Another side, bo Nix and the Denver Broncos. They've looked 356 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:53,320 Speaker 1: good now. They've had some soft landings here on their schedule. 357 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 1: Panthers last week, Saints, the week before Chargers game against 358 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,320 Speaker 1: you know, a big ten offense, a big ten operation 359 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 1: there with Jim Harbaugh. The Raiders the Jets was a 360 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 1: ten to nine game. This is no question Denver's biggest 361 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 1: challenge to date on their schedule. You like Denver though 362 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 1: in Baltimore. 363 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 2: I like Denver's number in Baltimore. Let's be very clear 364 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 2: on that. I'm gonna take the Broncos plus nine and 365 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:21,680 Speaker 2: a half in Baltimore. I guess we're running it back. 366 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:25,399 Speaker 2: We hit the Browns pick last week, so we're flying 367 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 2: a little too close to the sun. Maybe I can 368 00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:30,919 Speaker 2: see this going wrong, but I just can't get to 369 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere near this number. I can't get anything past seven really, 370 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,919 Speaker 2: So to me, it's a numbers play. The matchup vance Joseph, 371 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 2: the defense I think are the real deal. They've been 372 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:42,719 Speaker 2: top five against the past, top five overall. I think 373 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,160 Speaker 2: they can hang. Baltimore is gonna do their thing. They're 374 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 2: really good offense. Good offense beats good defense. So I 375 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 2: think Denver's defense can hang. I can't blame saying this. 376 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 2: I think boon Knicks might hang a little bit. Baw 377 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 2: Knicks has come around a little bit. He's actually about 378 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 2: Evan Odds with Kile Williams for Rookie of the Year. 379 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:05,119 Speaker 2: Baltimore's pass defense has not been great. They are bottom 380 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 2: quarter of the league. I think that bon Nicks can 381 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 2: pass at least a little and if necessary, probably will 382 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,200 Speaker 2: be necessary in garbage time. Nicks has actually been a 383 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:16,080 Speaker 2: pretty good in garbage time, which will get there in 384 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:20,399 Speaker 2: a second. Again, with the special teams, Baltimore's special teams 385 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:23,160 Speaker 2: not good this year. Normally is staple for them. They're 386 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 2: bottom quarter of the league on special teams. Denver's top 387 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:29,200 Speaker 2: five on special teams. So that's another just little hidden 388 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 2: area where oh, Justin Tucker missed another field goal. Oh, 389 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 2: just a little kick return, a little free points somewhere 390 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:41,080 Speaker 2: that helps us out here. Denver has three losses, every 391 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:43,919 Speaker 2: loss by six or seven points, and all three of 392 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:46,840 Speaker 2: them they trailed by thirteen or more points. In the 393 00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 2: fourth quarter, but fake caught up and got us through 394 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 2: the back door here basically, so I like that angle 395 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 2: as well. That's a spot where bon Nicks has been 396 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 2: annoyingly good. I've been on the wrong side of that 397 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:01,640 Speaker 2: one a couple of times. Jackson as a home favorite 398 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,120 Speaker 2: of three to ten points, you know this stat six 399 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 2: eighteen and one ATS twenty five percent, not a good 400 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:10,879 Speaker 2: spot for him. Sean Payton as over a touchdown dog 401 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:14,000 Speaker 2: six and two against the spread. Crazy that there's only 402 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 2: eight times in his long career of coaching. Doesn't happen 403 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:19,920 Speaker 2: much against teams better than five hundred. We've got over 404 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:22,200 Speaker 2: one hundred games in his career. Sean Payne is sixty 405 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:26,119 Speaker 2: two percent ATS. So I'm playing a number here that 406 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,919 Speaker 2: just feels off, just for some day to hear on 407 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 2: why this number is kind of a red flag to me. 408 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:37,080 Speaker 2: Denver last week covers as a more than touchdown favorite 409 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 2: and now is more than a touchdown underdog. That's weird, right, 410 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 2: So I looked it up in bat labs. We only 411 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 2: have eight times and two decades that that's happened. Only 412 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 2: twice in the last decade. If you put that team 413 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 2: over five hundred, like Denver. We're down to three. All 414 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:55,399 Speaker 2: three of those teams in this particular game as the 415 00:20:55,480 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 2: underdog covered by about ten points a game of them 416 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 2: actually won the game. And he guess what team it was? 417 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 2: It was Denver. Denver did it. It's a trend. It 418 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:08,800 Speaker 2: has to be a thing, though it's not really. It's 419 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,159 Speaker 2: kind of weird that it's so rare. I think that's telling. 420 00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:16,320 Speaker 2: On the flip side, Baltimore favorites of more than a 421 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 2: touchdown that lost, and are that lost by under a 422 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 2: touchdown and are now in the same spot favored by 423 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:25,600 Speaker 2: more than a touchdown, and that's a lot of stuff. 424 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 2: So they're big favorites. They lost a little bit, they're 425 00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:32,480 Speaker 2: big favorites again. Those teams are ten and twenty ets. 426 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:35,159 Speaker 2: They've lost three to the last five outright in the spot. 427 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,160 Speaker 2: So I don't know. I don't feel good about it. 428 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 2: It's Denver against Baltimore. Could it be halftime and it's 429 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,320 Speaker 2: twenty seven to three, and I feel like an idiot. Absolutely, 430 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 2: even in that spot, Denver might still have a chance 431 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:49,639 Speaker 2: to get through the back door, because that's kind of 432 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 2: what Baltimore has been allowing. The money line here is 433 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:55,879 Speaker 2: plus three to fifty. If I'm going I'm going hard. 434 00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 2: You know how I do, Brandon. We talked this on 435 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:02,320 Speaker 2: Sunday Night. Line underdogs this season of plus two fifty 436 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:05,480 Speaker 2: year longer are nine and eleven straight up seventy eight 437 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:09,560 Speaker 2: percent ROI, and Baltimore is responsible for two of the 438 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 2: five biggest underdog wins of the season. Sean Payton has 439 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:18,280 Speaker 2: a lifetime ROI twenty five percent as a money line underdog. 440 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 2: I don't see it. I am not predicting a Denver 441 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 2: upset here. I predicted the Browns one. I'm not gonna 442 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,280 Speaker 2: victory lap this one, but I'm gonna play it because 443 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 2: we keep seeing these weird long underdogs. We keep seeing 444 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,880 Speaker 2: Baltimore dulett. I think Denver at least covers, So give 445 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,040 Speaker 2: me the plus nine and a half and it's a 446 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,440 Speaker 2: little sprinkle in case weird stuff happens and Denver gets 447 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:41,480 Speaker 2: over the line on the money Line. 448 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 1: Mentioned that small sample on Sean Payton. It's probably because 449 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 1: for years, you know, he had Drew Brees, he had 450 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 1: respectable quarterback play. Was former team, the Saints. They get 451 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,600 Speaker 1: Derek Carr back, He's going to be He's a limited 452 00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 1: participant in practice, but the expectation, per reports, is that 453 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,720 Speaker 1: he's going to start at Carolina the Saints or at 454 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 1: a back. They've lost six in a row. But a 455 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:07,000 Speaker 1: way you've bet against this team they're playing has voted 456 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 1: well for you. 457 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna just keep keep doing what's working here. 458 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the Saints first half team total over 459 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,959 Speaker 2: thirteen and a half. And here's the key against the Panthers. 460 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 2: That's the angle. We keep faiting the Panthers in the 461 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,399 Speaker 2: first half. By the way, great transition from Sean Payton 462 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 2: right into the Saints. That's a professional transition right there. Look, 463 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,399 Speaker 2: my church is celebrating All Saints Day on Sunday, So 464 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,879 Speaker 2: you gotta bet the Saints this weekend. Right. The Saints 465 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:36,119 Speaker 2: have been terrible. The fact that Carolina is more than 466 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:41,200 Speaker 2: a touchdown underdog at home to these Saints is genuinely stunning. 467 00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:46,000 Speaker 2: Like I considered, I really considered playing the Panthers plus 468 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:47,840 Speaker 2: seven and a half. There are a lot of trends 469 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,199 Speaker 2: popping for me and I just can't do it. Like, 470 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 2: I don't know how low you make it for Carolina. 471 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 2: What's weird is the total has dropped as Derek Carr 472 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 2: winning from forty six Sunday to forty three and a half. 473 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:03,439 Speaker 2: Now that's Bryce Young. I don't know what's happened. Is 474 00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 2: the total being that low has brought our team total 475 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,399 Speaker 2: under the fourteen and given us a spot where all 476 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 2: we need now is two touchdowns and we hit our 477 00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:15,879 Speaker 2: team total over in the first half. Now, the Saints, 478 00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,480 Speaker 2: as you might recall Brandon in Week one, played the 479 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 2: Panthers and absolutely murdered them. I really even got to 480 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,120 Speaker 2: turn the football on to start the new season. It 481 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:31,000 Speaker 2: was forty seven to ten Panthers Island. One last mention 482 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 2: was dead before the season even started. We're returning to 483 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 2: the scene of the murder. The Panthers, other than the 484 00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:41,360 Speaker 2: game that they won, the one game with Dalton, are 485 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,480 Speaker 2: one in seven ats first half on the season. The 486 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 2: one is the game they won, and in those first 487 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 2: half the average score at halftimes twenty four to seven. 488 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:55,160 Speaker 2: They still halfway through the season have allowed three or 489 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 2: more touchdowns in the first half of every single one 490 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,600 Speaker 2: of those games. Other than that their when we only 491 00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:07,000 Speaker 2: need two. So am I nervous about Derek Carr being rusty? Absolutely? 492 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,720 Speaker 2: Am I nervous about backing Derek Carr and Dennis Allen's favorites. 493 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 2: You know, I don't love doing that three touchdowns in 494 00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,520 Speaker 2: the first half of every game. We only need two. 495 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,120 Speaker 2: And by the way, this is plus one zero two. 496 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 2: They're giving us plus money on this thing. I have 497 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,800 Speaker 2: to do it. I have to hold my nose and 498 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,400 Speaker 2: just keep betting against the Panthers. I did it against 499 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,680 Speaker 2: the Panthers last week with the Broncos and that worked out. 500 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,520 Speaker 2: They scored three touchdowns on them. Bo Nicks got there. 501 00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:39,840 Speaker 2: Why not Derek Carr all Saints Day, Saints over thirteen 502 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:43,120 Speaker 2: and a half first half team total at the Panthers. 503 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:43,680 Speaker 2: That's the key. 504 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, And like Kobiak was like the hottest name going 505 00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,320 Speaker 1: for two weeks there that Panthers game, and then they 506 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:53,080 Speaker 1: sort of validated it, I think against Dallas when they 507 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:54,879 Speaker 1: were healthier at the time. I mean, they know they 508 00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 1: were banged up at the time. 509 00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:55,960 Speaker 2: Two. 510 00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:59,080 Speaker 1: You just faded Dallas today. But I mean going back, 511 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:00,960 Speaker 1: you know, I know we we say in those first 512 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 1: few weeks it's eorally, it's eterally, but that's we can't 513 00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:07,119 Speaker 1: like forget that didn't happen, especially we have your quarterback injury. 514 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, I recall there there was there was some some 515 00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:12,680 Speaker 2: out there. There was some Derek Carr MVP buzz out there. 516 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 2: I recall somebody here on this podcast betting on that ticket. 517 00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,159 Speaker 2: So you know, maybe I'm just I'm earning back some 518 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,439 Speaker 2: of our Derek Carr and Panthers money. Let's get it 519 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:21,960 Speaker 2: back here. 520 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,040 Speaker 1: Okay, let's go do the look ahead, look ahead to 521 00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:28,360 Speaker 1: week ten? Your favorite pick on the board. First. Uh, 522 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:31,159 Speaker 1: you've already talked about going against this particular team with 523 00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 1: aj Brown. Let's talk ahead. 524 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:35,240 Speaker 2: Just give it a shot. 525 00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:36,520 Speaker 1: How about next week? 526 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:44,439 Speaker 2: Back my mindset my min Yeah, I'm gonna play a 527 00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,359 Speaker 2: rarity here. I don't normally back my Vikings, but I'm 528 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 2: gonna play Minnesota Vikings minus three and a half in 529 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:54,200 Speaker 2: Jacksonville for Week ten. So I like the spot here 530 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:56,800 Speaker 2: a lot. We've talked about Jacksonville. We've faded them a 531 00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:00,600 Speaker 2: bunch lately, but don't forget this team is still just 532 00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 2: barely coming off of that double game in London without 533 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 2: rest yet, they still haven't had time off. They still 534 00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,200 Speaker 2: don't get that for a few more weeks. And Jacksonville 535 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,560 Speaker 2: is a big underdog in Philly. We expect that not 536 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,320 Speaker 2: to go well for them, So that probably moves the 537 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,120 Speaker 2: line in that direction. The Vikings are on extra rest. 538 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,480 Speaker 2: They played Thursday, so they got a little extra rest, 539 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,399 Speaker 2: while the Jaguars have no rest. They're big home favorites 540 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:26,760 Speaker 2: against the Colt Sunday night, a game everyone's gonna watch. 541 00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:29,480 Speaker 2: I think that probably goes well for them. I hope 542 00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:32,520 Speaker 2: as a fan. And so if the Vikings win big 543 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,399 Speaker 2: and the Jaguars lose big, we're not getting the three 544 00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 2: and a half anymore. It's already for some books it's 545 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 2: not gonna go below three. I don't see anyway it 546 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:44,560 Speaker 2: gets there. So Jacksonville again probably the worst defense in 547 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 2: the league. I think koc can take advantage of that. 548 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 2: Especially the early scripted players have been really good for Minnesota. 549 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,200 Speaker 2: Snay you get out ahead on the front foot, We've 550 00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 2: seen how good Minnesota has been in that spot this season. 551 00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,679 Speaker 2: And then the offensive line. Let's not forget the Jacksonville 552 00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:02,520 Speaker 2: Jaguars just traded their best offensive lineman two Minnesota. So 553 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:07,200 Speaker 2: now you got Cam Robinson helping the Vikings here mitigating 554 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,760 Speaker 2: the pressure from Jacksonville. And now you've got Jacksonville's offensive 555 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:14,320 Speaker 2: line even worse against all the Brandon Floor's pressure. So 556 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:17,239 Speaker 2: I like that for Minnesota as well. I don't even 557 00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,640 Speaker 2: really give Jacksonville much home field advantage, so we're kind 558 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:23,240 Speaker 2: of just looking at just a neutral almost field for Minnesota. 559 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:24,800 Speaker 2: And I can't put them this low at three and 560 00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,159 Speaker 2: a half, so just too low of a numbers below 561 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:29,719 Speaker 2: the key number of four. Give me the Vikings minus 562 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:30,480 Speaker 2: three and a half. 563 00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,800 Speaker 1: You have some family matters to attend to next week, 564 00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:36,919 Speaker 1: so you've got a bonus look ahead. I almost I 565 00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,240 Speaker 1: almost want to take a little credit for this because 566 00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:43,320 Speaker 1: I teased it on the recap on Sunday because the 567 00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:47,000 Speaker 1: Titans are playing the Patriots, and I was like, well, 568 00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 1: if we're gonna do mine, chef, I don't know if 569 00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 1: I'm not sure you're going there right now. I don't 570 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:54,440 Speaker 1: think you can quite yet. But the Titans after the 571 00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,360 Speaker 1: Patriots go to the Chargers. 572 00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:00,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, so we're gonna we're just gonna play they play that. 573 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,560 Speaker 2: Everybody knows I will be playing. Yeah, I'm gonna be 574 00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 2: gone next week. So giving out extra pick in advance 575 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,040 Speaker 2: Titans Chargers. You already know what we're doing for Titans Chargers. 576 00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:13,120 Speaker 2: Why wait around under thirty eight and a half. It's 577 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 2: obviously the play. I'm going to make on this game 578 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,880 Speaker 2: the hot read on Sunday night. We took both of 579 00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:23,160 Speaker 2: these teams unders. You mentioned Titans, Patriots. I took Chargers Browns. Now, 580 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:25,680 Speaker 2: look that one's risen a couple of points. I don't 581 00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:27,760 Speaker 2: really get it. I still like the unders. I still 582 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:32,240 Speaker 2: feel good about both unders. Titans and Chargers both genuinely 583 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:36,040 Speaker 2: good Top ten defenses. I don't trust either offenses are 584 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 2: very slow paced teams, so that's gonna always helping under. 585 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,760 Speaker 2: For now, every Chargers game still below forty points in 586 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,760 Speaker 2: the season six and one to the under. Jim Harbaugh, 587 00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:49,680 Speaker 2: mister Big ten football totals below forty four is fifty 588 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 2: nine percent to the under, the second best active coach. 589 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:55,000 Speaker 2: And I think the script sets up well to these teams. 590 00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 2: First half unders are combined nine to four and one. 591 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,200 Speaker 2: We see a lot of these, like Chargers nine to 592 00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,040 Speaker 2: three at the half, or you know whatever it was 593 00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,560 Speaker 2: last week nine to five, or some like baseball score 594 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:09,080 Speaker 2: against the Saints. I think we just get this ugliest 595 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,360 Speaker 2: slog that buries the game early, and then we just 596 00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:14,440 Speaker 2: hold on for dear life and hope that they don't 597 00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:16,840 Speaker 2: get in through the back door with some garbage time stuff. 598 00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,720 Speaker 2: So thirty eight and a half. As you know from 599 00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 2: these ugly unders, thirty seven is that last key number. 600 00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:26,280 Speaker 2: I think this only moves one direction. Why wait around, 601 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,760 Speaker 2: there's no more analysis here. It's Titans Chargers. You got it, Brennan, 602 00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:31,920 Speaker 2: We're playing the under thirty eight and a half. 603 00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:35,640 Speaker 1: Okay, very good. There have been a lot of moving 604 00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:40,240 Speaker 1: parts behind the scenes this week. I went back and forth. 605 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:42,680 Speaker 1: We've had such great energy, so I hate to put 606 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:44,360 Speaker 1: a kind of a dismal tone to the end of 607 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,120 Speaker 1: this episode, but I went back and forth if I 608 00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:49,480 Speaker 1: wanted to say something at the conclusion of our episode. 609 00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 1: I ultimately decided yes, because I realized a lot of 610 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,720 Speaker 1: other people did not get that opportunity to speak. I 611 00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,080 Speaker 1: wanted to share. This is going to be my final 612 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:02,040 Speaker 1: episode hosting the Network podcast. I was brought on about 613 00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:05,720 Speaker 1: three years ago. The job description Brandon is very simple. 614 00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 1: Traffic cop, point guard, tee up the analyst, get to 615 00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:11,720 Speaker 1: the point, move from section to section like the least 616 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:15,800 Speaker 1: important person possible. But I've always loved audio, how to 617 00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,680 Speaker 1: maximize audio. So I could go on and on, but 618 00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:20,840 Speaker 1: I'll stick to what my biggest priority was when I 619 00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:24,800 Speaker 1: first came aboard be the best teammate. Most importantly, as 620 00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:27,640 Speaker 1: a listener, you out there, listeners, viewers on YouTube, we 621 00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 1: have to consider you like you matter. That's why this 622 00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:33,640 Speaker 1: ship moves week to week, season to season. I tried 623 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:35,400 Speaker 1: to do that to the best of my ability. Help 624 00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:38,760 Speaker 1: guys like Brandon shine in their shoes. That's why you 625 00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,520 Speaker 1: tune in. They put in the time to their process, 626 00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:44,040 Speaker 1: the research, which is all well and good. You don't 627 00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:46,240 Speaker 1: see that, but then how it comes out in the 628 00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:52,400 Speaker 1: finished product. The idea being is why why you the listener, 629 00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:54,560 Speaker 1: should be listening to what they are saying. There's a 630 00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,520 Speaker 1: difficult balance there though, because guys like Brandon, for example, 631 00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,440 Speaker 1: they have so much to share and that's all great 632 00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:02,360 Speaker 1: and dandy, but we have a deadline. There are there 633 00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:07,880 Speaker 1: as several deadlines. Time recording, editing, audio, video clipping, post rinse, 634 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:11,240 Speaker 1: repeat each day, each week, each sport, each season. So 635 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:14,480 Speaker 1: I'll get to the point because I'm now I'm being hypocritical. 636 00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:19,239 Speaker 1: So I have so much respect for every single one 637 00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,400 Speaker 1: of our analysts. I've worked with, all of you, no 638 00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:25,440 Speaker 1: matter the sport, your thoughtfulness, your dedication to your craft. 639 00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:29,240 Speaker 1: I hope I was a satisfactory playmaker to help each 640 00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:32,720 Speaker 1: of you deliver your messaging. You have all grown so 641 00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:37,320 Speaker 1: much as on air personalities. I'm proud to have listened 642 00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:40,480 Speaker 1: and watched each of you in real time become very, 643 00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:46,480 Speaker 1: very good and awesome at conveying digestible, educational entertaining and 644 00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:50,160 Speaker 1: our favorite word, actionable content. I am more than confident 645 00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,160 Speaker 1: that you guys are prepared, and I know this pot 646 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,440 Speaker 1: existed before I even got here. I'm more than confident 647 00:32:56,480 --> 00:33:00,400 Speaker 1: you guys are prepared to take the Action Network podcast 648 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,280 Speaker 1: to even greater heights. Thank you to the listeners. This 649 00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,840 Speaker 1: does not exist, as I said earlier, without your consumption 650 00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:10,320 Speaker 1: or audio cruise spearhaded by Matt Mitchell David Paine. They 651 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,920 Speaker 1: are exceptional at what they do. As I said, the 652 00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:15,920 Speaker 1: Action Network podcast existed before me and will do perfectly 653 00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:35,440 Speaker 1: fine without me, So thank you all very much. Action 654 00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:40,040 Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone 655 00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:43,040 Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 656 00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,640 Speaker 1: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler