Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager.
Speaker 1: And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today.
Speaker 3: Hearing this action in the market this morning follows a
Speaker 3: big reversal in markets yesterday. After gaining almost two percent
Speaker 3: earlier in the session, the S and P five hundred
Speaker 3: closed down eight tenths of one percent. The rapid slide
Speaker 3: followed a week forty two billion dollars sale of treasuries. Chadovi,
Speaker 3: a director of investment management and Huntingdon Private Bank, says
Speaker 3: now is the time to put your money to work.
Speaker 4: We've been telling our clients not to be overcashed. Right.
Speaker 4: The one thing that we know for certain is that
Speaker 4: as interest rates start to go lower, whether that's because
Speaker 4: of market activity or FED activity, cashields are going lower.
Speaker 4: So if you have cash, b dollar cost averaging and
Speaker 4: look to those markets where you can get in on
Speaker 4: some of those dips, be a long term investor.
Speaker 3: Huntington Private Banks. Chadovi It says stocks also came under
Speaker 3: pressure yes esterday because seventeen blue chip companies offered almost
Speaker 3: thirty two billion dollars of debt. That's the highest amount
Speaker 3: of US investment great issuance this.
Speaker 1: Year, well Nathan, three quarters of the global carry trade
Speaker 1: has now been unwound. That's according to JP Morgan's quant strategists,
Speaker 1: who say the week's volatility has wiped out year to
Speaker 1: date returns and cut into the past two years of profits.
Speaker 1: Mark Cranfield from Our Market's Live team says the Japanese market,
Speaker 1: one of the homes of the carry trade, is still
Speaker 1: not stable.
Speaker 5: It's a bit dysfunctional market you're seeing in Japan, and
Speaker 5: that's not too surprising when you consider the extreme volatility
Speaker 5: you've seen in the past week. It's really a market
Speaker 5: currently of headless chickens. People are just chasing everything, every headline,
Speaker 5: every nuance. So in terms of expecting volatility to die down, unlikely.
Speaker 5: We're going to have plenty of it, and we've got
Speaker 5: US elections coming as well. People are just going to
Speaker 5: get used to it.
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Mark Cranfield says the carry strategy involves borrowing at
Speaker 1: low rates to fund purchases and higher bilding assets elsewhere.
Speaker 3: We care in the odds of a recession in the
Speaker 3: US are increasing. That's according to JP Morgan Chase, the
Speaker 3: firm now sees a thirty five percent chance that the
Speaker 3: economy tips into recession by the end of this year.
Speaker 3: That's up from twenty five percent as of the start
Speaker 3: of last month. Still, economist Duriel Rabini says the market
Speaker 3: may be getting ahead of itself on expecting aggressive rate
Speaker 3: cuts from the FED. He says the central bank is
Speaker 3: right to signal a soft landing.
Speaker 6: The markets are often wrong about what's going on with
Speaker 6: the economy and what the FED is going to be doing.
Speaker 6: There is some significant, i to say, evidence of some
Speaker 6: slow down of the economy, but I don't think the
Speaker 6: data suggests that we're going to have a hard landing
Speaker 6: anytime soon. If anything, actually there's some elements of strength
Speaker 6: in the economy.
Speaker 3: Duriel Rabini is known as Doctor Doom for predicting the
Speaker 3: two thousand and eight global financial crisis.
Speaker 1: Well, Nathan, there are several stocks in the move this morning.
Speaker 1: We'll start with shares a Bumble. They're down more than
Speaker 1: thirty five percent. The dating app company is slashing its
Speaker 1: annual revenue outlook, and we get the numbers from Bloomberg's
Speaker 1: Charlie Pellett.
Speaker 7: Bumble says annual revenue will grow between one and two
Speaker 7: percent from the previous year. The company had previously forecast
Speaker 7: growth of between eight and eleven percent. Wall Street was
Speaker 7: expecting an eight point four percent gain, according to Bloomberg
Speaker 7: compiled estimates. The company's third quarter forecast and second quarter
Speaker 7: results also broadly missed the mark. Bumble, which went public
Speaker 7: in twenty twenty one, sawt shares hit a record low
Speaker 7: in February after it shared a weaker than expected sales
Speaker 7: outlook and cut around a third of its workforce in
Speaker 7: New York.
Speaker 3: Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio, all right, Charlie, thanks and shares
Speaker 3: of Warner Brothers Discovery, You're down nearly twelve percent. The
Speaker 3: parent of CNN and the TNT cable network posted a
Speaker 3: second quarter charge of more than nine billion dollars after
Speaker 3: writing down the value of those traditional TV networks. The
Speaker 3: company was created in twenty twenty two when Discovery acquired WarnerMedia.
Speaker 3: It has concluded the cable channels are no longer worth
Speaker 3: what they were when that forty two billion dollar merger
Speaker 3: was completed.
Speaker 1: Well Nathan investor Kathy Wood is trying to take advantage
Speaker 1: of the recent stock markets sell off. She scooped up
Speaker 1: shares of tech firms, just as our flagship fund is
Speaker 1: synk to a new twenty twenty four low Woods Arc
Speaker 1: Innovation ETF bought Amazon Advanced micro Devices and Roku, a
Speaker 1: fintech focused fund of her firm. Arc Investment Management also
Speaker 1: added Reddit and meta platforms.
Speaker 3: Let's turn to the latest in the presidential race, Karen.
Speaker 3: It is now a sprint through the key battleground states
Speaker 3: for Vice President Kamala Harris and her new running mate,
Speaker 3: Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz.
Speaker 8: Donald Trump he sees the world differently than we see it.
Speaker 8: He has no understanding of service because he's too busy
Speaker 8: servicing himself.
Speaker 3: Governor Waltz spoke there in Detroit, Michigan, as his opponent
Speaker 3: for the vice president's Ohio Senator jd Vance tailed the Democrats.
Speaker 3: He spoke with reporters by her plane of Harris's plane
Speaker 3: Air Force two, near oh Claire, Wisconsin.
Speaker 7: We think it's.
Speaker 9: Important to get out there to talk to people, to
Speaker 9: make the best case.
Speaker 10: That we can.
Speaker 9: And obviously there's an element of especially local media is
Speaker 9: going to cover her because she's a vice president and
Speaker 9: a presumptive dominie. So we think it's important to have
Speaker 9: a counter narrative here and importantly to drive home this
Speaker 9: point that she has been a dangerous radical.
Speaker 3: And after JD Vance's appearance on the Harris Waltz trail,
Speaker 3: a Harris campaign spokeswoman posted on x this is getting weird.
Speaker 1: And Nathan asks his vice president campaigns through the key
Speaker 1: battleground states. President Biden says he is not confident there'll
Speaker 1: be a peaceful transition of power if former President Trump
Speaker 1: loses in November.
Speaker 11: He means what he says, we don't take them seriously.
Speaker 3: He means it to look what they're trying to do
Speaker 3: now in the local election districts where people count the
Speaker 3: votes elected, putting people in place in states that they're
Speaker 3: going to count the votes.
Speaker 9: Right.
Speaker 3: You can't love your country only when you win.
Speaker 1: President Biden spoke to CBS News in his first interview
Speaker 1: since he ended his reelection bid last month. The full
Speaker 1: interview will air on CBS Sunday Morning, which can be
Speaker 1: heard on Bloomberg Radio in New York, Washington, DC, and
Speaker 1: Boston is Sundays at ten am.
Speaker 3: Andy Karen Delta Airlines has been hit by a class
Speaker 3: action lawsuit. The airline is accused of failing to properly
Speaker 3: refund flyers or provide them with meals, hotels, or transportation
Speaker 3: vouchers after crowds strike software outage last month caused widespread
Speaker 3: delays and cancelations.
Speaker 1: But it's time now for a look at some of
Speaker 1: the other stories making news in New York and around
Speaker 1: the world. For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's John Tucker.
Speaker 12: John, Good morning, Good morning, Karen. Tropical Storm Debbi has
Speaker 12: made a second landfall in South Carolina on its way
Speaker 12: up the East Coast, where residents as far north as
Speaker 12: Vermont could gainst several inches of rain this weekend. Bloomberg
Speaker 12: meteoramalogist Rob Carrolyn is tracking the storm.
Speaker 13: John.
Speaker 14: The circulation associated with what's left of Debbie continues to
Speaker 14: produce very heavy rain over portions of the Carolinas, and
Speaker 14: this will be spreading into Virginia today. We're looking at
Speaker 14: numerous flash flood watches and some warnings from northeastern South
Speaker 14: Carolina across North Carolina, then up along the Appalachians all
Speaker 14: the way to central New York.
Speaker 12: Debby came as shore early this morning near Bulls Bay,
Speaker 12: South Carolina. Taylor Swift's aeros tour has been canceled in Austria,
Speaker 12: and officials announced the irrative two men they accused of
Speaker 12: plotting a terror attack. Authority say, a nineteen year old
Speaker 12: Austrian citizen who had recently plunged allegiance to the Islamic state,
Speaker 12: focused on the Aras tour as a potential target. Nearly
Speaker 12: two hundred thousand people had been expended to attend the
Speaker 12: Vienna concerts, which were to start today. Bad news if
Speaker 12: you're looking for a deal on an apartment. The Manhattan
Speaker 12: rental market still sky high. More from Bloomberg's Denise Pellegrini.
Speaker 10: The average rental price in Manhattan one forty six dollars
Speaker 10: a month in July. The average rental price did fall
Speaker 10: from a year ago, but that's just because these size
Speaker 10: of the average apartment being rented fell. And forget about
Speaker 10: signing incentives. In Manhattan, deals offered by landlords plunged, and
Speaker 10: some lieutenants paid up above the list price. And if
Speaker 10: you were hoping to get a better deal in Brooklyn
Speaker 10: or Queen's, forget about it. The price per square foot
Speaker 10: of apartments in those places also rose. Denise Pellgritty, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 12: RAN's president telling his French counterpart, Emmanuel met Crown, the
Speaker 12: US and Europe must urge Israel to accept a truce
Speaker 12: in Gaza to reduce tensions in the Middle East. The
Speaker 12: comments hints at a diplomatic path at de escalation as
Speaker 12: Israel braces for retaliation after the killing of a top
Speaker 12: Hamas leader in Tehran. Global News twenty four hours a
Speaker 12: day and whatever you wanted with Bloomberg News. Now, I'm
Speaker 12: John Tucker, and this is Bloomberg Nathan and Karen.
Speaker 1: All right, John, thank you. It's time now for the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sports Update. But John stash Hour, John, good.
Speaker 13: Morning, Good morning, Karen. Is the Olympics start to wind down.
Speaker 13: Big day in Paris the two hundred meters with American
Speaker 13: Noah Lyles. He already won the one hundred and that
Speaker 13: thrilling finish. This is considered his stronger event. And the
Speaker 13: men's basketball semifinals as the US taking on Nicolo Jokich
Speaker 13: and Serbia. US beat the Serbs in an exhibition game
Speaker 13: and in group play, and both wins were by twenty
Speaker 13: six points. US women into the Semis. Win over Nigeria
Speaker 13: makes it fifty nine Olympic wins in a row. They'll
Speaker 13: play Australia tomorrow. Quincy Hall's come from behind gold medal
Speaker 13: in the four hundred meters the third time an American
Speaker 13: runner has won gold with a rally at the end.
Speaker 13: Lyles did it, so did Cole Hawker the fifteen hundred meters.
Speaker 13: Hall was in fourth place around the last band. It's
Speaker 13: the first US gold in the four hundred since two
Speaker 13: thousand and eight. In Denver, Mets and Rockies tied to two,
Speaker 13: nine to eight.
Speaker 3: First pitch fly to left field, fasehead fil Indor Fader scores.
Speaker 3: Here comes gabble around third, he will scored.
Speaker 7: The throw is cut off at third.
Speaker 3: Francisco Lindor with the basis loaded, drives in two.
Speaker 12: It is four to two Mets.
Speaker 13: In the top of the night on WCBS, Mets won
Speaker 13: five to three, another strong start for the New met
Speaker 13: Paul Blackburn his second in row and the Mets only
Speaker 13: half game behind Atlanta for second. In the NLS, Yankees
Speaker 13: and Orioles again tied for first. Yanks split two at
Speaker 13: the Angels at the Stadium. They won five to two
Speaker 13: behind Luis Heally got his twelfth win. The Angels then
Speaker 13: won eight to two with a six run second in
Speaker 13: off Yankee rookie will Warren Baltimore one, seven to three
Speaker 13: in Toronto. Red Sox lost eight to four at Kansas City.
Speaker 13: The Giants won seven to four in Washington. The Football
Speaker 13: Giants host the Lions tonight in the preseason open to
Speaker 13: the two teams had two fight filled joint practices. The
Speaker 13: NFL find both teams two hundred thousand dollars for raffiellen
Speaker 13: allenounced he won't play the US Open next month. He
Speaker 13: will play the Labor Cup. That might be the last
Speaker 13: event of his career. John Stashedwar Bloomberg Sports can.
Speaker 11: Navan coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,
Speaker 11: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the
Speaker 11: Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 3: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager on another morning of volatility
Speaker 3: in the global market as the debate over central bank
Speaker 3: policy decisions around the world feeds into investor anxiety. Joining
Speaker 3: us now from London is Bloomberg Stocks reporter Joe Easton
Speaker 3: and a job between the worries about whether the Feds
Speaker 3: waited too long to cut and the unwind in the
Speaker 3: carry trades after the Bank of Japan's surprise hike, Where
Speaker 3: do things sid now? Good morning, Yeah, morning, Nathan.
Speaker 15: So, I mean the thing I've been waiting to see
Speaker 15: is a rebound in stocksvill we're just not really seeing
Speaker 15: that at all. We're seeing yesterday in the US we
Speaker 15: saw a bit of a gain at the open, then
Speaker 15: a decline faded away. In Europe every morning we seem
Speaker 15: to be opening very slightly higher and then giving up
Speaker 15: the games. The market really not willing to bet on
Speaker 15: a rebound as such. Stocks pretty much down around five
Speaker 15: percent over the past week, both in Europe and the US,
Speaker 15: and we're just not seeing investors to buy it back in.
Speaker 15: Maybe they're going to wait for a bit more date. Obviously,
Speaker 15: later we get the US jobless claims. That could be
Speaker 15: important in terms of the numbers, but we really need
Speaker 15: some kind of trigger for markets to actually turn, and
Speaker 15: we're not just seeing that at the moment.
Speaker 3: Well, where you sit in Europe, we're continuing to see
Speaker 3: some pretty deep selling. What's driving that?
Speaker 15: Yeah, So I think earnings have been largely negative here
Speaker 15: In terms of the large cap companies today, we had
Speaker 15: some big names like Semens. We also had a bunch
Speaker 15: of insurers kind of just being a bit slow in
Speaker 15: terms of where they growth. Our semens was talking about
Speaker 15: customers cutting back on orders, being slow to put new
Speaker 15: orders in. That had to kind of read across the
Speaker 15: entire European industrial space. The bank numbers haven't been particularly strongviously,
Speaker 15: interest rates fading coming down will be negative for them,
Speaker 15: So we're just seeing just a bit of negativity. But
Speaker 15: you've got to also bear in mind that volumes are lower.
Speaker 15: Of course, a lot of people on holiday, a lot
Speaker 15: of the traders I chat to all of them red
Speaker 15: dotted on the terminal today where they're just out. So
Speaker 15: the liquidity in the volume in the market is low,
Speaker 15: and therefore disappointment on things like earnings and data is
Speaker 15: just causing a bit more selling in these markets.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 3: In terms of what's driving the broader market, a lot
Speaker 3: of it's been driven by the global unwind in the
Speaker 3: carry trade. After the Bank of Japan's move, the folks
Speaker 3: over at JP Morgan Chaser saying now they think it's
Speaker 3: about seventy five percent done. Could we expect some of
Speaker 3: this volatility to subside once this carry trade unwind fully
Speaker 3: shakes out?
Speaker 15: Yeah, I did see the JP Morgan update. That was
Speaker 15: pretty interesting to say, given a lot of that trade
Speaker 15: potentially has now been closed out. Kind of depends on
Speaker 15: how much losses were booked there and how much leeway
Speaker 15: people have to buy back into other trades in terms
Speaker 15: of buying back into stocks, whether they'll just have to
Speaker 15: kind of hold their positions there that might kind of
Speaker 15: be wrapped up. So I don't think that will be
Speaker 15: the main trigger. I think we'll need to see data. Interestingly,
Speaker 15: the US numbers next week will get US inflation, but
Speaker 15: that's kind of taken a kind of second step in
Speaker 15: terms of the importance. Now the market more focused on
Speaker 15: growth will get some SMP indexes in terms of the
Speaker 15: survey numbers next week, the ISM numbers as well later
Speaker 15: in the beginning of next month, So those are kind
Speaker 15: of the key dases that we'll wait for. I don't
Speaker 15: really think the Japan issue is going to be key.
Speaker 15: It's more going to be about whether US economic growth
Speaker 15: continues to slow, whether the Fed's taken too long to
Speaker 15: lower rates, as you say, and also the earning story.
Speaker 15: Will markets continue to reward companies for doing well or
Speaker 15: are they too concerned about economic growth. That's the bigger
Speaker 15: issue for me.
Speaker 11: Yeah.
Speaker 3: And to your point about the data dependence in between
Speaker 3: all those data points you mentioned, is the jobless claims
Speaker 3: coming out this morning after all that betting about whether
Speaker 3: the Fed's behind the curve after last week's disappointing jobs report.
Speaker 3: I mean, what kind of volatility could we see just
Speaker 3: from this next upcoming data point.
Speaker 15: Yeah, I'm excited to see that that will be coming up,
Speaker 15: as you say, at one thirty my time, eight thirty
Speaker 15: your time, So in one hundred and eighty seven thousand,
Speaker 15: I think was the call for continuing claims. We'll see
Speaker 15: whether that actually lands. I think that given the sensitive
Speaker 15: that you mentioned there, it could be a key data point.
Speaker 15: I mean, US futures pretty much lower on the SMP
Speaker 15: at the moment. Maybe people are going to position ahead
Speaker 15: of that, just wait to see what that number looks like.
Speaker 15: If it's a decent number, maybe we see a bit
Speaker 15: of a rebound. You would expect that to be the case,
Speaker 15: but at the moment, maybe people waiting for those jobless
Speaker 15: claims numbers. Definitely going to keep me glued to my
Speaker 15: screen later this afternoon.
Speaker 3: And in terms of where we sit now on rate
Speaker 3: cut betting, are we still thinking that there could be
Speaker 3: a possibility of an emergency rate cut. Are we still
Speaker 3: betting on aggressive moves from the Fed? Cut about thirty
Speaker 3: seconds lab.
Speaker 15: Yeah, No, I think For me, I think traders unfortunately
Speaker 15: tend to overplay how much the Federal Reserve and other
Speaker 15: economists that do actually look at financial markets. They're more
Speaker 15: interested in economic data. For me, I don't think we'll
Speaker 15: see an emergency cut. They'll have to rate for the
Speaker 15: next meeting. I think that the Fed, like all central bankers,
Speaker 15: are more focused on the macro numbers rather than five
Speaker 15: percent decline in the S and P five hundred.
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the
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Speaker 3: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow.
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