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Speaker 1: If you enjoy the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, check out our

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Speaker 1: new daily news program, the Bloomberg Daybreak Podcast. It gives

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Speaker 1: of today's edition of Bloomberg Daybreak at the very end

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Speaker 1: of this podcast. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 1: Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join

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Speaker 1: us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics,

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Speaker 1: finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple,

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Speaker 1: Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: It is a joy after pandemic that Abby Joseph Cohen

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Speaker 1: dark in the door of our surveillance schools so a studio,

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Speaker 1: I should say she is not with Goldman Sachs. It

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Speaker 1: is a whole new world after all for the former

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Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs partner professor at Columbia Business School and joins

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Speaker 1: us after giving out bushels have ceased this term. Wonderful

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Speaker 1: to have you in the studio. Abby once again, it's

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Speaker 1: an abby Joseph Cohen market, and that you have to

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Speaker 1: believe in optimism on the American economic experiment and within

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Speaker 1: all the caution in gloom, equities will rise. Is this

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Speaker 1: a bull market off the October lows? And is it

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Speaker 1: a better time I had for the stock market?

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Speaker 2: There are quite a few questions embedded in their tom

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Speaker 2: and let me just say, I'm delighted to darken your door,

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Speaker 2: so thank you for the invitation. I believe that what

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Speaker 2: we're seeing is that investors are thinking differently than many

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Speaker 2: of the talking heads. Many of the people who are

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Speaker 2: required to make daily comments about what's happening. I think

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Speaker 2: overreacted in some way to daily data or monthly data

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Speaker 2: and forgot to look at things in context. So, for example,

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Speaker 2: Michael did a great job of saying, here's where inflation

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Speaker 2: is now, and let's put that in the context of

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Speaker 2: where it was a year ago. And what we basically

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Speaker 2: see is that that inflation is coming down. It takes

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Speaker 2: pressure off of the FED to continue to raise interest rates.

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Speaker 2: The other thing that we're seeing in the data, not

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Speaker 2: necessarily every week or every month, is that there is

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Speaker 2: ongoing economic growth in the United States. It has been

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Speaker 2: surprisingly good, but not relative to consensus expectations, but not

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Speaker 2: really a surprise when you think about the strength of

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Speaker 2: the consumer. When the Fed began to raise interest rates

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Speaker 2: more aggressively more than a year ago, the household balance

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Speaker 2: sheet was in the best condition we have ever seen.

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Speaker 2: Credit was in very good shape relative to income levels.

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Speaker 2: And we also know that the employment situation has been

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Speaker 2: good and has not really shown any deterioration. And in

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Speaker 2: our US economy, that really is the base for economic growth.

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Speaker 3: I wonder, especially on the heels of the CPI report

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Speaker 3: that came in pretty much status quo, we are seeing

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Speaker 3: some sort of disinflation. We also are still seeing that dynamism,

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Speaker 3: with Wells Fargo CFO coming out this morning and saying

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Speaker 3: that they're seeing an increase in card spending and real

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Speaker 3: kind of strength there. You put these two together, do

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Speaker 3: you now buy into the immaculate disinflation, this idea that

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Speaker 3: you could get a new bull market and disinflation even

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Speaker 3: if growth slows.

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Speaker 2: I have been consistently in the camp that we would

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Speaker 2: see some slowing in growth, but no recession, and that

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Speaker 2: we could see inflation come down. And part of that

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Speaker 2: is because I've had confidence in the FED that they

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Speaker 2: would be paying careful attention to the data. And so

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Speaker 2: when we think about what they may or may not

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Speaker 2: do tomorrow, I think that they have the option to.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if we're going to call it skip

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Speaker 2: or pause. Let other people assign something to that. But

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Speaker 2: the thing that I learned as an economist at the

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Speaker 2: FED is we don't know how long it takes for

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Speaker 2: monetary policy changes to actually affect the economy, and I

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Speaker 2: think that they have already done so much. We already

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Speaker 2: have an inverted yield curve. If I were voting, which

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Speaker 2: I'm not, but if I were a voting member of

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Speaker 2: the FOMC, I would vote for wait and watch well.

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Speaker 3: And that seems to be what the consensus is.

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Speaker 4: As far as as far as what.

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Speaker 2: People are expecting.

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Speaker 3: I am wondering as you advise the boards of public

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Speaker 3: investment firms to try to understand how to position, would

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Speaker 3: you say it's time to lean in, that it's time

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Speaker 3: to actually bet on a broadening of the rally, that

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Speaker 3: it's time to really understand that perhaps we're going to

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Speaker 3: go back to something that's a lower yield reality.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I know that we're all focused on the fact

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Speaker 2: that we're now back to where we were. I think

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Speaker 2: the time to have made a really good decision was

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Speaker 2: late last year or early this year, when everyone was

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Speaker 2: so disturbed by what might happen and what I considered

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Speaker 2: to be a low probability scenario. That was really the opportunity.

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Speaker 2: And as I take a look at things now, I say, Okay,

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Speaker 2: equity valuations are not as appealing to me as they

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Speaker 2: were in November December because the pe has risen for

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Speaker 2: the overall market. And so what I'm advising is balance

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Speaker 2: Number One, we have an opportunity for the first time

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Speaker 2: in ages in fixed income, and I would go with

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Speaker 2: high quality, high quality corporates, treasuries and so on. You

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Speaker 2: can get four or five percent return on a treasury.

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Speaker 2: Not bad. Number Two in the equity market, I would

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Speaker 2: be looking at some of the sectors that haven't performed well.

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Speaker 2: You know, forty percent of the S and P five

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Speaker 2: hundred roughly is it and communication, And these are the

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Speaker 2: two sectors that have done so much better than the rest.

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Speaker 2: So if you're concerned about relative valuation, there's some great

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Speaker 2: opportunities in some of the more cyclical areas. And if

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Speaker 2: people increasingly believe that there will not be a recession,

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Speaker 2: that's where you start to look for opportunity.

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Speaker 3: Just real quick here, do you think that the whole

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Speaker 3: AI hype has been overplayed? That it's kind of starting

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Speaker 3: to get a little concerning.

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Speaker 2: I have been speaking to computer science professors and experts,

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Speaker 2: and as I have an undergraduate degree in computer science,

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Speaker 2: as ancient as that might be, and what they are

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Speaker 2: basically saying is they're kind of nervous about how AI proceeds.

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Speaker 2: There is the sense that if you put good data in,

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Speaker 2: you'll get good results out. And what the scientists are

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Speaker 2: saying is it's not true because the process that are

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Speaker 2: being used are not really being properly regulated. They are

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Speaker 2: advising pilot projects so we can see what happens. One

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Speaker 2: of the common quickly time, if I may this Congress

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Speaker 2: hasn't yet figured out how to regulate the Internet, and

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Speaker 2: so we may be pretty far behind in terms of

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Speaker 2: whether there should be some controls over AI. And I'm

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Speaker 2: not talking about anything draconian. I'm just talking about guardrails,

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Speaker 2: and our Congress hasn't yet figured out what to do.

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Speaker 1: I got eight ways to go here, and I got

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Speaker 1: forty seconds. Mister Costin at the shop downtown goes from

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Speaker 1: four thousand to forty five hundred SPX. I don't want

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Speaker 1: you to play the game he used to play at

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Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs. But I do want you to tell me

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Speaker 1: what the second leg of a bull market looks like.

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Speaker 1: The first leg, as you alluded to, is easy money.

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Speaker 1: What happens now in a second leg of a presumed

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Speaker 1: bull market?

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Speaker 2: Sure, I've been at that forty four to forty five

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Speaker 2: hundred level since last December, so I'm not so in

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Speaker 2: terms of what we have seen. So when I take

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Speaker 2: a look now at David's forecast, which is very thorough,

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Speaker 2: he's talking about an increase to about forty seven hundred,

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Speaker 2: I think that's reasonable when I look at the profit outlook,

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Speaker 2: and also what might happen to Peaes.

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Speaker 1: Does Lee Boluncer and the rest of Columbia University know

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Speaker 1: your game in the SPX off of Bloomberg terminal at school?

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Speaker 5: Are you really doing that?

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Speaker 4: I am not.

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Speaker 1: You're not placing trades.

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Speaker 2: I'm doing that at home, but.

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Speaker 1: You're on the couch of the laptop at home. Had

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Speaker 1: me Joseph Cohen on a day of inflation.

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Speaker 6: Just check in with Sarah House. She's a senior economist

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Speaker 6: at Wells Fargo. So, Sarah, we've had a couple of

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Speaker 6: minutes here to digest this CPI data.

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Speaker 5: What did you take away from it?

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Speaker 7: Yes, So I think overall, when we look at the numbers,

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Speaker 7: I think it's consistent with this inflation picture not getting

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Speaker 7: any worse. In some ways we're seeing it maturely about

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Speaker 7: or if you look at what's happening with the headline number,

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Speaker 7: how that's stacking up against real average hourly earnings. But

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Speaker 7: at the same time, when we look at the core numbers,

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Speaker 7: there's still somewhat troubling. So we saw for a six

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Speaker 7: consecutive month monthly increases of zero point four percent or higher.

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Speaker 7: So still some work to be done on the part

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Speaker 7: of the Fed.

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Speaker 1: Well, the Fed's going to meet tomorrow. I know you're

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Speaker 1: briefing Jr. Own Pal of twelve noon here, Sarah, how

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Speaker 1: does this change the dialogue at the Federal Open Market

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Speaker 1: Committee meetings?

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Speaker 7: So, I don't think it changes the outcome of what

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Speaker 7: was heavily signaled before going into the blackout period that

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Speaker 7: the FED was likely to pause, skip, whatever you want

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Speaker 7: to call it here in June. But I think it

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Speaker 7: still keeps the door open to another hike in July,

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Speaker 7: given that, yes, you have inflation coming down, but when

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Speaker 7: you look at the core numbers that they're still troubling,

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Speaker 7: troublingly high. So I think this is moderate enough to

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Speaker 7: keep that compromise position going and buy J. Powell a

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Speaker 7: little bit of time and hope that the numbers accelerate

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Speaker 7: more clearly here over the next in intermeding period.

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Speaker 1: Paul, and I see your read picker summing it up

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Speaker 1: for Bloomberg News, and Bloomberg News reports slowest since March

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty one. Okay, it doesn't get you back to

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Speaker 1: now March of twenty twenty or even nineteen, but you know,

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Speaker 1: I guess it's a move in the right direction exactly.

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Speaker 6: So, I mean, Sarah, when we look at this, you know,

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Speaker 6: ex Food and energy annualize at five point three percent,

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Speaker 6: I mean again, that's that's higher than where the FED

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Speaker 6: would like it to be. But put that in context

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Speaker 6: with this two percent number that FED continues to throw

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Speaker 6: out there is two percent of a realistic number these days,

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Speaker 6: or would three percent be okay?

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Speaker 7: So I think in terms of the official target, we're

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Speaker 7: not going to see that change. So we have to

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Speaker 7: step back and think. Okay, first, we're talking CPI numbers

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Speaker 7: this morning, so that's probably more like two and a

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Speaker 7: quarter versus the two percent, which matches a little bit

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Speaker 7: better with with pc So I don't think we'll see

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Speaker 7: a change in the official target. But I do think

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Speaker 7: if we get down to maybe not three but somewhere

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Speaker 7: closer to two and a half percent, I think that

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Speaker 7: SID can live with that for a time if it

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Speaker 7: means staving off a recession or at least mitigating the

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Speaker 7: damage to the labor market. But I think this where

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Speaker 7: you know where you're still looking at some numbers you know,

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Speaker 7: at least double the fed's target by these consumer price

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Speaker 7: index measures, whether PCE or CPI, that's still uncomfortably high

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Speaker 7: for the FED.

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Speaker 1: Key question. I don't want to get in trouble with

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Speaker 1: Wells Fargo compliance, but we're going there anyway. Sarah House, good,

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Speaker 1: do you extrap away the core CPI vector in a

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Speaker 1: linear fashion where you get down to the level you

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Speaker 1: just said a year out, two years out, two and

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Speaker 1: a half years out, or can you get some form

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Speaker 1: of convexity where we come down with greater rapidity. Can

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Speaker 1: we pull that off?

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Speaker 7: So I think we can see the pace of disinflation

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Speaker 7: pick up over the remainder of this year and on

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Speaker 7: into twenty twenty four. So one of the items propping

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Speaker 7: up the core number today was a four point four

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Speaker 7: percent gain in used vehicles. Don't expect that to last

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Speaker 7: based on what's happening with the latest auction data as

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Speaker 7: well as just what's happening in terms of the financing

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Speaker 7: costs on consumers, what's happening on the inventory, the discounting side,

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Speaker 7: and so between that and housing, I think you can

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Speaker 7: get a much more discernible disinflationary path over the coming months.

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Speaker 7: But I think in terms of getting it all the

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Speaker 7: way back to that to two and a quarter percent

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Speaker 7: rate that is on par with the fed's target, that's

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Speaker 7: going to be probably a late twenty twenty four, maybe

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Speaker 7: even twenty twenty five period. In terms of sticking that landing,

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Speaker 7: you might hit it and bounce, but this is the

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Speaker 7: landing is going to be about a year per one.

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Speaker 1: Final question, this is the raving the raging question right now.

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Speaker 1: I mean the form of Vice Chairman Richard Clareda says,

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Speaker 1: forget about two point zero maybe there was a tailor

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Speaker 1: rural reality of for years one point eight even we

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Speaker 1: were subpar two percent for whatever reason you're saying that

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Speaker 1: as a shop Wells Fargo says, two point x percent

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Speaker 1: is just inappropriate and we have to have as a

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Speaker 1: mission to get back to two point zero percent.

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Speaker 7: I think that's the Fed's going to maintain that as

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Speaker 7: they're in official target, but we think that they will

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Speaker 7: implicitly be comfortable with something, you know, between two two

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Speaker 7: and a half percent here over the next couple of years.

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Speaker 7: That is going to be a multi year process to

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Speaker 7: get inflation back down to where it averages two percent.

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Speaker 7: But we think at the said we'll be able to

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Speaker 7: live with something closer to two and a half percent,

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Speaker 7: even if that official target is not going to change.

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Speaker 1: When compliance call, Sarah, just you run them over to

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Speaker 1: me and my cell phone, right, I'll be in this

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Speaker 1: surveillance nap, but we'll straighten out that. That was very good,

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Speaker 1: Sarah House. They're very delicate about some of the politics

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Speaker 1: out there on this day of CPI and clearly an

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Speaker 1: important day of inflation data in America and to be

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Speaker 1: observed worldwide. It is good to speak to any Treasury secretary.

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Speaker 1: Janet yellens occupied, So we'll do better with Jack glu

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Speaker 1: the former US Treasury Secretary joins us this morning. Jack,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining Bloomberg and Bloomberg Surveillance.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna cut to the chase you were weaned on,

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Speaker 1: Joe Moakley out of Boston and on the Great Tip O'Neill,

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Speaker 1: and Tip O'Neill understood that technology drove things forward. He

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Speaker 1: was a believer in the big system, the big vision.

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Speaker 1: We come out of a pandemic, we have sky high

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Speaker 1: inflation and the dynamics changing. Is this a normal inflation?

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Speaker 1: Is this a normal dynamic that we should fear or

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Speaker 1: can it lead to a better disinflationary trend, better productivity

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Speaker 1: and better growth.

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Speaker 8: So good to be with you, Tom, And I think

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Speaker 8: it's fair to say that there's nothing normal about going

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Speaker 8: into a coming out of COVID. It was an extraordinary

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Speaker 8: period that required policies that no one had ever had

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Speaker 8: to think about in our lifetimes before. So I don't

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Speaker 8: think there's any surprise that coming out of it. It's

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Speaker 8: a somewhat bumpy path with somewhat unpredictable duration in terms

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Speaker 8: of where we're headed and how quickly we get there.

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Speaker 8: I think what's clear is that there's been a trend

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Speaker 8: down in inflation. You know, a lot of the inflation

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Speaker 8: that was supposed to roll off slowly rolled off, But

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Speaker 8: what's left behind is a lingering higher inflation rate. Then

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Speaker 8: we would like. What we don't know is when all

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Speaker 8: of the measures kick in, all of the higher interest rates,

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Speaker 8: all of the effects of bank failures, where will we be.

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Speaker 8: So I think the cautious approach is still the right one.

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Speaker 8: We have room in the economy for some tightening. Unemployment

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Speaker 8: is very low, we still have a strong but we're

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Speaker 8: headed towards a slower patch. There's no question about that.

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Speaker 8: And the question is will it or won't it become

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Speaker 8: a technical recession. So I think that the data does matter,

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Speaker 8: and I'm not sure today's news will be the last word.

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Speaker 1: Jack lou the Painfully. My colleague John Parrell mentioned this

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Speaker 1: on London and the rest of the United Kingdom in

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Speaker 1: the last hour. There seems to be a separation in

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Speaker 1: America to Americas that John Edwards talked about and advantage

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Speaker 1: technology front America that really doesn't care about inflation, and

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Speaker 1: then another America flat on its back. How separate are

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Speaker 1: our two Americas now economically?

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Speaker 8: You know, that's a good question, and I think there's

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Speaker 8: lots of data points to show that it's a growing

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Speaker 8: separation and a real problem. You know, you were talking

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Speaker 8: a few moments ago about savings rates and what are

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Speaker 8: the residual savings from pandemic support and from lower spending

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Speaker 8: when people couldn't go out. It's very different if you're

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Speaker 8: at the top or the bottom of the income spectrum.

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Speaker 8: At the bottom that savings has been gone for a while.

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Speaker 8: At the top, it isn't going away anytime soon. And

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Speaker 8: I think that has a lot to do with what

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Speaker 8: people can buy and what people can buy those things.

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Speaker 8: So we do have to ask how different parts of

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Speaker 8: the economy fairing.

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Speaker 3: Although I do wonder how much the fiscal impulse is

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Speaker 3: going to be severely constrained. Do you think that people

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Speaker 3: appreciate how much the recent debt ceiling negotiations will constrain

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Speaker 3: further fiscal spending or do you think that it basically

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Speaker 3: was a band aid over something and basically didn't change

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Speaker 3: the narrative in any way.

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Speaker 8: So, Lisa, I think there will be lower spending on

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Speaker 8: the appropriated side. That's going to have an impact on

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Speaker 8: things that are very important in terms of providing services

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Speaker 8: to the American people. So I don't want to say

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Speaker 8: it won't have any fiscal impact. But the whole debate

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Speaker 8: was over a small slice of the budget. It wasn't

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Speaker 8: over revenues at all. It wasn't over the large entitled

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Speaker 8: programs at all. So I don't think we should confuse

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Speaker 8: the size of that deal, which was on the order

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Speaker 8: of seventy five billion dollars a year for a couple

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Speaker 8: of years of restrained spending, with what a true package

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Speaker 8: of fiscal consolidation would look like. I think the question

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Speaker 8: going forward is will there be continued stability in terms

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Speaker 8: of the federal government not creating anxiety that affects both

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Speaker 8: how individuals and businesses see the economic outlook. Part of

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Speaker 8: the agreement was a kind of technical legislative provision to

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Speaker 8: put pressure on Congress to pass all of the appropriation

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Speaker 8: bills separately, which they haven't done since I was at

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Speaker 8: a OMB and the Clinton years. Now, if that happens

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Speaker 8: everything will go smoothly. If it doesn't happen, you face

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Speaker 8: the prospect of government shutdown, of cuts in defense spending.

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Speaker 8: The noise coming out of Washington in the last few

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Speaker 8: days suggests to me that we're not necessarily done with

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Speaker 8: drama coming from our capital.

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Speaker 3: This is my shockface. I do think that people are

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Speaker 3: expecting a bit more in terms of drama on this front.

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Speaker 3: At the same time, when you talk about instilling some

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Speaker 3: confidence in c suites of some predictability, I do wonder

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Speaker 3: your response to future bank failures at a time when

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Speaker 3: a lot of people are saying, basically, for all intents

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Speaker 3: and purpose, there is a backstop at least depositors basically

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Speaker 3: promised by the Treasury Department, and interference promised by the Fed.

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Speaker 8: Well, look, I think they regulators and Treasury have made

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Speaker 8: clear that they will do what they have to to

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Speaker 8: prevent systemic crisis from occurring. They haven't been terribly clear

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Speaker 8: whether that means in every single case. You know, there

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Speaker 8: are continue to be normal workouts of troubled banks, so

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Speaker 8: not everything is in the case of the regulators will

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Speaker 8: step in. Look, I don't think we're done seeing the

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Speaker 8: impact of higher interest rates on pressure on financial institutions.

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Speaker 8: You add to that the pressure that comes from commercial

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Speaker 8: real estate values being below where they were just a

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Speaker 8: short period ago, So there's going to be some stress

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Speaker 8: in the system. I think looking ahead, the thing that

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Speaker 8: ought to happen is reflected in what policymakers have said,

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Speaker 8: which is that there has to be more careful oversight

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Speaker 8: of mid size financial institutions, particularly growing mid size financial institutions,

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Speaker 8: so that we don't have as many surprises in the future.

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Speaker 8: I don't know exactly what shape that will take, but

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Speaker 8: I do think that's a very important discussion. And rolling

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Speaker 8: back that oversight a few years ago I thought was

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Speaker 8: a mistake at the time, and I was glad to

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Speaker 8: hear that that thinking has changed back to we have

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Speaker 8: to keep an eye on things.

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Speaker 9: Jack. One final comment, We've got to say happy anniversary.

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Speaker 9: It's almost ten years to the day that you unveiled

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Speaker 9: a new signature. Can you believe that was a decade ago? Jack?

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Speaker 9: Can you believe that was ten years ago?

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Speaker 8: It is very hard to believe that it's ten years ago,

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Speaker 8: isn't it amazing? T?

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Speaker 1: And that's sure, is it's original, but it's changed.

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Speaker 8: Go on, Jack, and I still get them when I

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Speaker 8: go to the money machine that's.

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Speaker 9: Old, the old ones Jack, or the new version with

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Speaker 9: the new signature, you.

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Speaker 8: Get a pretty good I only had one. There was

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Speaker 8: only one signature.

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Speaker 9: Oh so they never got the new that. They never

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Speaker 9: got the new signature on that.

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Speaker 5: I'd like a redo of this is possible.

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Speaker 3: Can I just say that you've given my children hope,

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Speaker 3: because they often will say when we're trying to develop

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Speaker 3: a signature, they will look at yours and say, look,

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Speaker 3: we can be creative with it.

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Speaker 4: So literally, the only.

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Speaker 8: Thing I say is, don't blame my grade school teachers.

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Speaker 9: They try Jack Lou, thank you sir for being a

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Speaker 9: good sport as well the former US Treasury secretary Jack.

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Speaker 1: Right now, and this has been just a joy for

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Speaker 1: us over the recent weeks. Wendy Schiller joins as director

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Speaker 1: of Tubman Center, Brown University. Wendy were squeezed for time today.

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Speaker 1: Let's just cut to the chase. It is truly an

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Speaker 1: original moment. This is not in your classic textbook. How

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Speaker 1: will you place a new chapter into your textbook?

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Speaker 10: Well, in some ways I think that this is a

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Speaker 10: development for the democracy. And if you're a Trump's borer,

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Speaker 10: you say Oh, this is terrible and it's a political witchhunt.

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Speaker 10: But if you think about it, why should presidents be

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Speaker 10: shielded from behavior if it's criminal, whether it's federally criminal

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Speaker 10: or bringing a state law when they're president.

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Speaker 4: I mean, they should be held accountable. This is an

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Speaker 4: evolution of where we are.

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Speaker 10: Latin America, we know, you know, we don't want to

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Speaker 10: be like them, but even Europe now, Nicole Sturgeon was

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Speaker 10: held just the other day, you know, former leader of Scotland,

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Speaker 10: for things she might have done, her husband might have

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Speaker 10: done for their party.

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Speaker 4: You know, democracies have to have a rule of law.

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Speaker 10: And if you let the most powerful operator in the

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Speaker 10: democracy break the law because they're insulated from prosecution when

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Speaker 10: they're president, they're probably going to do that.

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Speaker 4: And that's not something I think we want in the

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Speaker 4: twenty fourth century.

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Speaker 10: So I'm not as perturbed or disturbed by this.

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Speaker 4: I don't think it's a political witch hunt.

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Speaker 10: I am concerned that when Democrats get out of office.

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Speaker 4: The same thing won't happen.

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Speaker 10: But there's a there is a rule of law, and

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Speaker 10: if you break the law, you need to be held accountable.

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Speaker 3: There's a prosecution, and then there's the response publicly where

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Speaker 3: people who are for the former president are still for

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Speaker 3: him and do believe that this is some sort of

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Speaker 3: undermining of the institutions. What's your takeaway from that when

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Speaker 3: you teach your political history classes at Brown, Well.

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Speaker 10: I mean political loyalty has turned into very fierce support

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Speaker 10: and sometimes violence in the entire history of the country.

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Speaker 4: That is not new.

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Speaker 10: We have to see what happens today. How many will

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Speaker 10: come out and go to a rally and you know,

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Speaker 10: not that hot weather we think maybe in Miami today,

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Speaker 10: But is that the same as you know, committing violence

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Speaker 10: or trying to up end the system entirely just to

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Speaker 10: save this one person. It's a larger problem for the

439
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 10: Republican Party going down the line. They really in the

440
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 10: end of the day, you know, McCarthy's answer was quite weak.

441
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 10: You know, there's a bathroom lock. There's a lock on

442
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:16,880
Speaker 10: the bathroom door. That's you know, this is the espionage jack.

443
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 10: These are military secrets. Is this man capable of being

444
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:23,440
Speaker 10: entrusted with national security? That becomes a larger issue as

445
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 10: this trial proceeds for the Republican Party and those other

446
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 10: people running for office in twenty twenty four, in the

447
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:29,280
Speaker 10: Republican Party.

448
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 3: Putting aside Kevin McCarthy's response, you can come to whatever

449
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 3: your conclusion that you'd like to come to. That there

450
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 3: is an issue of at what point Republican nominees or

451
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 3: potential nominees start to push back against what former President

452
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,879
Speaker 3: Trump is facing up against or starts to put a

453
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 3: little bit more credence in the judicial system. Do you

454
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,160
Speaker 3: expect that to be the case or do you think

455
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,120
Speaker 3: that they're willant to you to be support and import

456
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 3: around backing the former president and really kind of sticking

457
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:57,640
Speaker 3: with that line, Well, we.

458
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 10: Said, that's that's the you know, very in question, and

459
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:02,639
Speaker 10: we have to ask themselves for the next couple of months.

460
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:04,640
Speaker 4: The question is in the polling, they've got to win

461
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:05,359
Speaker 4: the primary.

462
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 10: I mean, this is the most devoted Republican voters, but

463
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 10: a lot of independence in some states with open registration.

464
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 4: Vote in the Republican primary. You know, they may be

465
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 4: voted Republican before Trump. They've left Trump in majority.

466
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 10: Numbers in the last couple of years, but you know, will.

467
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 4: They vote Republican primaries? And if independent voters do do that.

468
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 10: Right, they vote in Republican primaries, they're not going to

469
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 10: want this guy, and how do you balance that?

470
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 4: And then, of course in the general election, we know

471
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 4: they're not going to vote for this guy.

472
00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 10: So this is the big question for those other people running.

473
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:36,640
Speaker 10: You don't want to alienate your core base of Trump supporters.

474
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 4: On the other hand, other people vote those.

475
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 10: Republican primaries too, and they're just going to get sick

476
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 10: of this, especially if there's a Georgian indictment or January

477
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 10: sixth indictment. You know, this guy just becomes too much

478
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:50,199
Speaker 10: of a liability and then you risk losing turnout in

479
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 10: twenty twenty four among that base or Republicans.

480
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 9: When do I have thirty seconds? What kind of legal

481
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:58,200
Speaker 9: representation does the former president have today?

482
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 10: I think they were scrambling as of yesterday, so I'm

483
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 10: not even quite sure. But then you have to ask

484
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 10: you that question two is at what point does he lose.

485
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:09,200
Speaker 4: The capability of getting.

486
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:10,879
Speaker 10: The very best minds of the country and try to

487
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 10: defend him. And let's not forget the judge. This judge

488
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 10: sort of got in trouble for the way that she

489
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 10: handled this case earlier in its proceedings.

490
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 4: What does she do now and does she.

491
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 10: Continue on that path or does she sort of more

492
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 10: conform with regular judicial standards in the federal judiciary.

493
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,879
Speaker 9: Wendy Shella of Brown University. Wendy, We'll be tell Conceding,

494
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 9: not down.

495
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,679
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and

496
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 1: anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday

497
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern im Bloomberg dot Com, the

498
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

499
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 1: can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always. I'm

500
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and

501
00:26:54,640 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Saveillans podcast.

502
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:07,120
Speaker 11: Now.

503
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:10,439
Speaker 1: Stay tuned for today's edition of Bloomberg Daybreak. It's your

504
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 1: daily news podcast, delivering today's top stories to your podcast

505
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:18,159
Speaker 1: feed by six am Eastern. It's all the news you

506
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 1: need in just fifteen minutes. The Bloomberg Daybreak podcast. It

507
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 1: starts right now Boom.

508
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 12: From the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak

509
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:34,360
Speaker 12: for Tuesday, June thirteenth. Coming up today, Arranment Day in Miami.

510
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:38,920
Speaker 13: Former President Trump prepares to face charges in the classified Documents.

511
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 12: Pro Wall Street braces for the latest inflation report as

512
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 12: the Fed meets on interest rates.

513
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,160
Speaker 5: Apple and Oracle hit all time highs.

514
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 12: And New York City offices hit a post pandemic milestone.

515
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 11: Ukraine says it has liberated several villages from the Russians

516
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,879
Speaker 11: in recent days. Plus, New York City is looking for

517
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,119
Speaker 11: a new police commissioner. I'm michae Lebarr.

518
00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,199
Speaker 5: More Ahead, John Stan Sharon sports.

519
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,439
Speaker 14: The Denver Nuggets have won their first NBA championship. The

520
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:07,119
Speaker 14: Subway Series begins tonight at City Fields.

521
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 15: That's all straight Ahead on Bloomberg day Break, the Business

522
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,160
Speaker 15: news You need to starn your day in just one

523
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 15: fifteen minute podcast each morning on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg

524
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 15: Business app, and everywhere you get your podcasts.

525
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,680
Speaker 12: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Amy Morris. Here

526
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:29,639
Speaker 12: are the stories we're following today.

527
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 5: It could be a tense day in Miami.

528
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,280
Speaker 13: Up to fifty thousand people are expected to turn out

529
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 13: at the city's federal courthouse. That is where former President

530
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 13: Donald Trump will enter a pleete of federal charges over

531
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 13: his handling of classified documents. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy says

532
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 13: the former president is being treated unfairly when compared to

533
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 13: the current president.

534
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 16: When you're looking now at a current president that has

535
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 16: documents sitting behind, is his automobile in a garage that

536
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 16: date all the way back to a senator that raises

537
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 16: a lot. If you're charging one and not charging the other,

538
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 16: you raid one house, but you don't raid the other.

539
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 13: But Trump's former acting chief of staff mc mulvaney says,

540
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 13: this case is different. How often have we seen you

541
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 13: throughout our political history, throughout business history.

542
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 16: It's really not the crime, right, it's the cover up

543
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 16: that gets people in trouble.

544
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 13: Watergate was not about the break in.

545
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 7: It was about the cover up of the break in.

546
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 13: Former acting White House Chief of Staff mc mulveney spoke

547
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 13: with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg's Sound on Catch the program

548
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 13: weekdays at one pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or listen

549
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 13: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. Former President Trump's

550
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 13: arraignment is set for three this afternoon in Miami.

551
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 12: And we'll have much more on Donald Trump's day in

552
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 12: court coming up shortly. But first we turn to the markets,

553
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 12: both the S and P five hundred and Nasdaq one

554
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 12: hundred are trading at their highest level since April of

555
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 12: twenty twenty two. There's optimism the Fed will pause rate hikes.

556
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 12: The Central Bank kicks off its two day meeting today.

557
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 12: Also today we get the May reading on US inflation.

558
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 12: Let's get more on that from Bloomberg's Michael McKee.

559
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 17: Economists say consumer price inflation slowed in May, led lower

560
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 17: by falling energy and automobile prices. This inflation in rent

561
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 17: may finally show up, holding down the core rate. Meanwhile,

562
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 17: base effects high inflation a year ago mean a big

563
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 17: drop in overall inflation this year. At least that's the forecast.

564
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 17: If analysts are wrong, however, watch out higher than anticipated

565
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 17: inflation will change expectations for the FED policy decision due Wednesday,

566
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 17: with officials divided over whether to raise rates or make

567
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 17: no change. An inflation surprise would lead to big market moves.

568
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 17: Michael McKee, Bloomberg Daybreak.

569
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 5: Okay, Mike, thank you.

570
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,480
Speaker 13: And rates are also in focus in Asia, Bloomberg News

571
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 13: has learned China is considering a broad package of stimulus measures,

572
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 13: including interest rate cuts, to boost the world's second largest economy.

573
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 13: Sources say that stimulus would include at least a dozen

574
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 13: measures designed to support areas like real estate and domestic demand.

575
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 12: And speaking of real estate, New York City has achieved

576
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 12: a major post pandemic milestone. We get those details from

577
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 12: Bloomberg's Jeff Bellinger.

578
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 18: Office occupancy in the city top fifty percent for the

579
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 18: first time since workplaces emptied out at the start of

580
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 18: the pandemic. The security company Castle Systems provided the data.

581
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 18: Castle calculates the number of workers entering buildings by tracking

582
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 18: security card swipes. More workers returned to offices despite the

583
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 18: city being engulfed in smoked from wildfires burning in Canada.

584
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 18: Jeff Bellinger, Bloomberg Daybreak.

585
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 13: All right, Jeff, thank you. Back to markets now. We're

586
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 13: watching a couple of stocks trading at all time highs

587
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 13: this morning. Apples at its highest level in more than

588
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 13: a year, the latest sign of big tech reclaiming leadership inequities.

589
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 13: The latest rally comes after Apple unveiled its Vision Pro

590
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 13: mixed reality headset.

591
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 12: And shares of Oracle also hitting records. They are up

592
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 12: more than four percent and early trading after the company

593
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 12: reported quarterly revenue that topped estimates. Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett has

594
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 12: those details.

595
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 19: Its signals the software maker's cloud business is benefiting from

596
00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 19: heightened demand for artificial intelligence workloads. Sales increase seventeen percent

597
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 19: to thirteen point eight billion dollars in the fiscal fourth quarter. Analysts,

598
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 19: on average estimated thirteen point seven billion. According to data

599
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 19: compiled by Bloomberg, Oracle has focused on expanding its cloud

600
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 19: infrastructure business to more forcefully compete with Amazon, Microsoft and

601
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 19: Alphabet's Google, all of which have seen recent slowdowns.

602
00:32:24,920 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 5: In New York.

603
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 13: Charlie Pellett, Bloomberg Daybreak, Charlie Thanks. Shares of Intel are

604
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 13: also on the rise. They are up more than one percent.

605
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 13: Bloomberg News has learned Intel is among companies British chip

606
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 13: designer ARM has been talking with about anchoring its IPO

607
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 13: this year. ARM is looking to raise as much as

608
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 13: ten billion dollars in its New York listing.

609
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 12: On the flip side, Microsoft is under fire from US regulators.

610
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 12: They're suing the tech giant to stop it from completing

611
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 12: its acquisition of Activision Blizzard. The Federal Trade Commission wants

612
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 12: a cord order to block the deal from going through

613
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 12: until the agency's in house court can review the sixty

614
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 12: nine billion dollar deal.

615
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 13: Over in Europeamy, the boss at Barkley, says a reshuffle

616
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:07,920
Speaker 13: and its investment bank has top deal makers leaving cs Vencotta.

617
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 13: Christians replaced the heads of his investment arm earlier this

618
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 13: year as part of a shift to focus on Europe.

619
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 13: He tells Bloomberg's David Weston the move is about looking

620
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 13: ahead to the next decade of banking.

621
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 9: It's not a shift so much as an expansion.

622
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 20: It is to try to give more attention to Europe.

623
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: Relatively speaking, the US remains critically important to US.

624
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 13: Darkly, CEO of Kotta Christian is head of the world's

625
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 13: largest non US investment bank.

626
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 12: And one note on the airline industry. This morning, United

627
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 12: is offering its pilots the biggest deal ever for a

628
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 12: mainland US carrier. The airline is making a contract offer

629
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 12: to pilots with incremental value in excess of eight billion

630
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 12: dollars over four years.

631
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 13: Time now to take a look at some of the

632
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 13: other stories making news in New York and around the world.

633
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 13: For that, we'rejoined by Bloomberg's Michael bar Good Morning, Michael.

634
00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 11: Good Morning. Nathan, New York City's police commisioner has abruptly

635
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 11: resigned Ketchin Seole, the first woman ever to lead the

636
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 11: New York City Police Department, announced their resignation by surprise

637
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 11: and a letter addressed to the rank and file and it,

638
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 11: Sewell wrote she has witnessed their compassion, heroics and selflessness

639
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 11: on a daily basis, calling them hard working public servants.

640
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 11: Former NYPD Chief of Detectives Robert Boyce credit Seule for

641
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:27,800
Speaker 11: working to reduce the city's crime rate on her watch.

642
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 20: If you look at the numbers, the violence thumbers, they've

643
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 20: come down dramatically, you know, twenty four percent reduction in shootings,

644
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 20: fourteen percent reduction in home side thinks that she's done

645
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 20: the way she's carried herself with a lot of duty families,

646
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 20: a big loss that we're going to talk about for

647
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:42,359
Speaker 20: quite some time.

648
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 11: Mayor Eric Adams issued a statement thanking her for her work.

649
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 11: Officials in Lockport, New York, say one person died and

650
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:52,920
Speaker 11: multiple people are in the hospital after a boat cap

651
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 11: size during a tour of an underground cavern system built

652
00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 11: to carry water from the Erie Canal. Police and fire

653
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 11: crews were called to the Lockport Cave tours after authority

654
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 11: say twenty nine people were aboard the boat when it flipped,

655
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,839
Speaker 11: sending them into the water up to six feet deep.

656
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 11: Fire Chief Luca Quagliano.

657
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 21: The boat can safely handle up to forty people. There

658
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 21: was twenty nine on it at the time. Somehow, at

659
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 21: the end of the cave or the destination at three

660
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 21: hundred feet section there the boat became unbalanced and capsized.

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Speaker 11: Chief Quagliano says Eleven people were sent to local hospitals

662
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 11: with minor injuries. Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln says he

663
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 11: hopes the Ukrainian offensive now underway will force Russian President

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00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 11: Vladimir Putin into talks to end his invasion. Ukraine says

665
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 11: it has liberated several villages from the Russians in recent days. However,

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00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 11: a regional governor says at least three people have been

667
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 11: killed and twenty five wounded after missiles hit civilian buildings

668
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:58,360
Speaker 11: and an overnight attack in President Zelenski's hometown. The governor

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00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 11: of Illinois signed into law a bill that would prevent

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00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 11: book bands in the state, the first legislation of its kind.

671
00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 11: Pat say Jack, who has hosted the hit game show

672
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 11: Wheel of Fortune since nineteen eighty one, says he will

673
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,879
Speaker 11: retire next year. Say Jack, who is seventy six, says

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00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,879
Speaker 11: it has been a wonderful ride. Global News twenty four

675
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,400
Speaker 11: hours a day, powered by more than twenty seven hundred

676
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:27,320
Speaker 11: journalists nanalysts in over one hundred and twenty countries. Michael Barr,

677
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 11: this is Bloomberg.

678
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:31,360
Speaker 5: Nathan Man sold a lot of vowels. Thank you, Michael.

679
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 13: Time for the Bloomberg Sports Update, brought to you by

680
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 13: Tri State Out.

681
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:39,839
Speaker 5: Are you good morning? John stash Out?

682
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 14: Good morning, Nathan. The NBA season is over with a

683
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:43,840
Speaker 14: first time champion.

684
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 5: Ain't it's over.

685
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Speaker 10: Last?

686
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:51,400
Speaker 1: The world light is over fift to forty seven years

687
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 1: and Denver Luggets can finally call themselves NBA champion.

688
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,439
Speaker 5: Back call on ABC. Denver meating Miami in Game five,

689
00:36:58,640 --> 00:36:59,839
Speaker 5: ninety four to eighty.

690
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:01,800
Speaker 14: That's a score you used to see back in the

691
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 14: nineteen nineties. It was that kind of a game, rugged defense.

692
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 14: Both teams struggled to score. They combined to make only

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00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 14: fourteen at a sixty three three pointers. They heat led

694
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 14: for most of the night. Denver made a run fourth quarter,

695
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 14: then Jimmy Butler got hot put Miami back ahead. But

696
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 14: Butler would commit a costly turnover in the final minute

697
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 14: Nikola Jokich Finals MVP led everyone in the playoffs in scoring, rebounding,

698
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 14: and assists, first to ever do that the second June

699
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 14: in a row, or they are celebrating in Denver. The

700
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:31,920
Speaker 14: Avalanche last year won the Stanley Cup and the Cup

701
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,280
Speaker 14: will be in the house tonight in Las Vegas. Golden

702
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 14: Knights up three one on Florida. Also tonight, start of

703
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:39,840
Speaker 14: a two game Subway series at Cityfield. Luis Sevarino for

704
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,480
Speaker 14: the Yankees, who just had a two to four homestand

705
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 14: Max Scherzer for the Mets, who lost eight of their

706
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 14: last nine. The Mets have signed to former Yankee Luke

707
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 14: Voit just released by Milwaukee Hill report the Triple A.

708
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:53,919
Speaker 14: Sakwan Barkley not reporting of the Giants mini camp this week.

709
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 14: All eyes on July seventeenth, that's the deadline for the

710
00:37:56,920 --> 00:38:00,319
Speaker 14: Giants to sign Barkley long term. If they don't, he'll

711
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 14: either play for the ten million dollar franchise tag War

712
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 14: sit out the season. The US Open tees off Thursday

713
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 14: in LA and two former champions will play together, Brooks Koepka,

714
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:12,880
Speaker 14: who left the PGA Tour for Live and Rory McElroy,

715
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 14: who was outspoken your is criticism johns Stashawer Bloomberg Sports.

716
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 22: From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

717
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 22: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias exam the Bloomberg

718
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 22: Business Appen Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 5: This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager.

720
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 13: The city of Miami is bracing for potentially big crowds

721
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 13: and the possibility of protest as former President Donald Trump

722
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:43,800
Speaker 13: gets ready to enter a plea two dozens of counts

723
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:47,319
Speaker 13: later today at the city's federal courthouse. For more, we

724
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 13: are joined by Bloomberg News Senior editor Bill Ferries, who,

725
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:53,360
Speaker 13: as it happens, used to lead Bloomberg's bureau in Miami.

726
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 13: It's good to speak with you again, Bill. Is the

727
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 13: city you used to know ready for what's coming this afternoon?

728
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 23: Thanks Nathan. Listen to mayor and the police chief for

729
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:06,399
Speaker 23: Miami Dade and the City of Miami have all said

730
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 23: that they're prepared. They don't. They admit they don't really

731
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 23: know what to expect. They estimated crowds could be anywhere

732
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 23: from a few thousand to fifty thousand, depending on how

733
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 23: many of the former president's supporters and his opponents all

734
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:27,440
Speaker 23: convene at that courthouse where the former president is expected

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00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 23: to appear at three pm today.

736
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Speaker 13: Let's talk about a little bit what we do know

737
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 13: is going to happen. Walk us through what is expected

738
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:41,520
Speaker 13: when the president faces those charges this afternoon.

739
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 23: Well, the first thing we'll be looking for really is

740
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:48,759
Speaker 23: who's with him. As you know and your listeners know,

741
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 23: a couple of his key lawyers who have been guiding

742
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 23: him through this process quit in the last week or so.

743
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 23: So I think the first thing we'll be looking for

744
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 23: when the president makes his appearances, who is alongside him,

745
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:03,839
Speaker 23: who is representing him? He needs to have, he needs

746
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 23: to have lawyers who are authorized at the Florida Bar.

747
00:40:08,040 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 23: So that's been I think a focus of the President

748
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 23: and his allies over the last few days as he

749
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 23: prepares for this. When he gets into the courtroom, he's

750
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 23: going to have to presumably plead innocent. He said he's

751
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 23: innocent to all thirty seven counts across seven charges, all

752
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 23: relating to his storage of classified alleged storage of classified

753
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:33,800
Speaker 23: material at the mar A Lago resort.

754
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:35,560
Speaker 11: So and.

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Speaker 23: After that, after that ends, well will get a better

756
00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 23: sense I think of the timeline of this court case,

757
00:40:43,239 --> 00:40:47,280
Speaker 23: we do expect it to bleed well into next year's

758
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 23: presidential primaries and possibly the election. And we're not expecting

759
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:56,400
Speaker 23: right now the president to necessarily address his supporters outside

760
00:40:56,440 --> 00:41:00,439
Speaker 23: the courthouse. There's been talk that he will go back

761
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:05,120
Speaker 23: to his club in New Jersey and perhaps give a

762
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:10,360
Speaker 23: speech there. But everything, you know, we've never seen anything

763
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 23: like this and anything as possible. So we'll be watching

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00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 23: closely to see how the president moves forward.

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Speaker 13: Apart from entering a plea today, Bill, are we expecting

766
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 13: that we're going to get any glimpses either from the

767
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 13: special counsel, the federal prosecutors for amounting this case, or

768
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 13: from Trump's defense attorneys, whoever they may be, as to

769
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Speaker 13: how this case could go forward in terms of the

770
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 13: arguments that they might pursue.

771
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:39,280
Speaker 23: Yeah, I think, you know, in the case of former

772
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:43,440
Speaker 23: President Trump, there's always two sides to this. He obviously

773
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:47,399
Speaker 23: has always made a lot of his arguments against these

774
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:51,279
Speaker 23: kinds of things public. It's not clear that that will

775
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 23: carry as much weight in the courtroom, but we will,

776
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 23: I think from he and his lawyers get a sense of,

777
00:41:57,560 --> 00:42:00,839
Speaker 23: you know, whether they're going to contest some of these

778
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 23: some of the means, some of the evidence that the

779
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 23: federal government is saying that they built up against him.

780
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 23: We may get a sense of their strategy in terms

781
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:15,319
Speaker 23: of trying to drag the timeline, timeline of this of

782
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:18,680
Speaker 23: this case out, whether by calling for some of the

783
00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:23,520
Speaker 23: classified material to be made public in the courtroom or

784
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 23: other procedures. I mean, the former president has a history

785
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 23: of trying to delay and drag out court proceedings, so

786
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:32,880
Speaker 23: I would expect we'll start to get a sense of

787
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:36,839
Speaker 23: that perhaps in the courtroom or when his lawyers leave

788
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:39,920
Speaker 23: and they issue some statements about how they feel the

789
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 23: day has gone.

790
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 13: Of course, we've seen the political impact already. Bill in

791
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 13: our last minute here, we've heard Republicans defend the former

792
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 13: president saying there's a double standard. At the same time,

793
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 13: we're hearing from pretty powerful Republicans questioning the former president's

794
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 13: electability now that he's facing these charges. How significant is

795
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 13: that that we're hearing from the likes of John Cornyn

796
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:03,400
Speaker 13: questioning the former president.

797
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 1: Yeah.

798
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 23: I think there are some Republicans who were in Trump's

799
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 23: corner as presidents, who are who want to move on,

800
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:16,120
Speaker 23: who think that maybe even if this is rallying the

801
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 23: traditional base, the primary voters who backed Trump, that it's

802
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 23: really going to do the Republican Party damage in the

803
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:26,880
Speaker 23: general election next year. So that's I think they're looking

804
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 23: ahead to that with a big question mark. And you've

805
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 23: seen a couple of Donald Trump's opponents in the primaries now,

806
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 23: Nikki Haley and Tim Scott. I believe both kind of

807
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:42,400
Speaker 23: come out with some cautious words, cautious criticism of what

808
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:46,360
Speaker 23: they what they read in that indictment against the former president.

809
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 23: So the tide has turned a little, but obviously he

810
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 23: still has that big base of support to back to

811
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:51,799
Speaker 23: back him up.

812
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 13: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the

813
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:01,760
Speaker 13: story's making news from Walston to Washington and beyond.

814
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 12: Look for us on your podcast b by six am

815
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:09,360
Speaker 12: Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you

816
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 12: get your podcasts.

817
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:13,839
Speaker 13: You can also listen live each morning starting at five

818
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 13: am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero

819
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:19,400
Speaker 13: in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington,

820
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:22,360
Speaker 13: Bloomberg one oh six to one in Boston, and Bloomberg

821
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 13: ninety sixty in San Francisco.

822
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:28,440
Speaker 12: Our flagship New York station is also available on your

823
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 12: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven.

824
00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:36,919
Speaker 13: Thirty bus Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app,

825
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:40,840
Speaker 13: Serrius XM Channel one nineteen, the iHeartRadio app, and on

826
00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 13: Bloomberg dot Com.

827
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:43,359
Speaker 5: I'm Nathan Hager.

828
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:47,359
Speaker 12: And I'm Amy Morris. Join us again tomorrow morning for

829
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 12: all the news you need to start your day, right

830
00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:51,800
Speaker 12: here on Bloomberg day Break.

831
00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:01,920
Speaker 23: He