1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 2: Single Best Idea and what a day it was. We 3 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 2: could have had about six tapes here turned it into 4 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 2: a twenty minute extravaganza. The goal of single Best Idea 5 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 2: is not to give you a twenty minute extravaganza. There's 6 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 2: a lot of podcasts out there doing that. Looked at 7 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: the Big Take with David Gura is one example of 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 2: really getting it done with a highly produced twenty minute effort. 9 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,519 Speaker 2: This is a glimpse into conversations of the moment, and 10 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:43,520 Speaker 2: today's hugely eclectic and hugely surprising. We'll get to Betsy 11 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 2: Stevenson of Michigan, of Ann Arbor in a moment on 12 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 2: this crazy childcare mess we're in in America. But first, 13 00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 2: Gina Martin Adams always surprises, and she hates me because 14 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 2: she knows I'm going to throw an audible. So I 15 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 2: saw Gina Martin Adams of Bloomberg Intelligence, Equity and Audible. 16 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 2: I said, okay, no one's in love with China. Does 17 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 2: that mean their equities are a value? Here's Gina Martin Adams. 18 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 1: Chinese equities are very consistently abi at eleven times earnings. 19 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:18,480 Speaker 1: We saw that last year Chinese equities got down to 20 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 1: eleven times earnings. It created a major buying opportunity for 21 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:25,479 Speaker 1: Chinese equities. We bounced off of those lows, and now 22 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 1: we're starting to see whether or not the fundamentals can 23 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 1: actually put up to allow for valuations to continue to 24 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 1: expand in China. It is a tough case right now 25 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:40,040 Speaker 1: for China for a lot of reasons, mostly because we're 26 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 1: not seeing the economic progress that many people had hoped 27 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:46,040 Speaker 1: to see in China, and earnings growth trends are not 28 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 1: as positive. That said, we are coming off of a 29 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: major multiple low, and if we can see that incremental 30 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 1: improvement and confidence come out of China, you can see 31 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 1: China work longer term. Though, Tom, I have to admit 32 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 1: that China's relative performance by comparison to the broader em 33 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: or even the broader global equity markets is a pretty 34 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 1: massive disappointment over longer term time trends. So I tend 35 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 1: to think of it as a tactical opportunity until we 36 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 1: see some really major structural reforms which open that market 37 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 1: to the global investment community on a more consistent basis, 38 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:23,919 Speaker 1: and also we see some more persistent fundamental improvement that is. 39 00:02:23,880 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 2: An example of the excellence of Bloomberg intelligence. I threw 40 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 2: that looking for a cursory short answer, and instead a 41 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 2: clinic from Gina Martin Adams laying out China equity potential. 42 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 2: I thought that was just absolutely brilliant. A lot of 43 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 2: other discussions to any Amory Horden painting a picture of 44 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 2: the democratic effort in Chicago. Anton Posner I thought was 45 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 2: great on the logistics of supply chain of the Red 46 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:58,520 Speaker 2: Sea of the Panama Canal as well. And then finally 47 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 2: we had Betsy Steve Vison of Michigan, and I want 48 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 2: to make clear who she is. A lot of people 49 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 2: look at her as a policy want because she's someone 50 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 2: that comes out and talks about this, that and the other. 51 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 2: There is no one, and I mean no one in 52 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:18,919 Speaker 2: America who has studied the economics and the policy realities 53 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:26,639 Speaker 2: of divorce and together and separately, children and childcare in America. 54 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 2: She's an absolute tuoredive force. I'll be blunt. Her CV 55 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 2: is heartbreaking about the effect of divorce and child care 56 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 2: and lack of child education in America. Doesn't matter what 57 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 2: your politics are. It's the work she's done, the body 58 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:45,559 Speaker 2: of work she's put together is absolutely unique in America. 59 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 2: Betsy Stevenson and the people that are not so much 60 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 2: against childcare, but they're looking to the past. 61 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 3: I think what they want is a return to what 62 00:03:56,880 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 3: feels like a traditional family, where you know, people just 63 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 3: don't have to work that much and they get, you know, 64 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 3: to stay at home and take care of their kids, 65 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,360 Speaker 3: and the dad comes home at five o'clock at night 66 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 3: and the wife has made dinner. I think the thing 67 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:17,040 Speaker 3: to realize is they seem to they argue that they 68 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 3: want that, but they don't actually want the living standards 69 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:23,760 Speaker 3: of the you know, nineteen fifties. They don't because you 70 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:27,039 Speaker 3: could get that if you lived off nineteen fifties median income, 71 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 3: you know, you could have a nineteen fifties lifestyle. Most 72 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 3: people want a twenty twenty four lifestyle. At the same time, 73 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 3: they want to feel the security of, you know, some 74 00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 3: idealized notion of family life. I love the idea of 75 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 3: children having their parents around them, having other family members 76 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 3: supporting them. But they also know that children need professional educators. 77 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,359 Speaker 3: And I think that we learned that during COVID. You know, 78 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:01,680 Speaker 3: we tried homeschooling our kids. I'm a professor, and I 79 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 3: was terrible at homeschooling my own second grader. In fifth grader, 80 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:09,719 Speaker 3: they were frustrated. They wanted their peers. They didn't want 81 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 3: their mommy correcting their math. They wanted a math feature 82 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:17,039 Speaker 3: correcting their math. And you know, the same thing is 83 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 3: true when we're looking at smaller kids. They benefit from 84 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 3: people who specialize in early Childhood's. 85 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:28,279 Speaker 2: Betsy Stevens, and they're just absolutely outstanding. Can you see. 86 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 2: I can't amaze she probably put the five year old 87 00:05:31,440 --> 00:05:34,280 Speaker 2: on a curve, you know, probably got a quality c 88 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 2: for all that we know. I can't say enough about 89 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:41,159 Speaker 2: her work. The body of it is just simply courageous. 90 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 2: We are off to Jackson Hole. You know, we'll travel 91 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:48,480 Speaker 2: out there with Bramo. It's going to be good. Powell's 92 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:51,039 Speaker 2: speech will be good, but also the conversations we're going 93 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:54,279 Speaker 2: to have forward into the end of twenty twenty four. 94 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,599 Speaker 2: Dare we look out to twenty twenty five with great 95 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 2: conversation and Friday, look for that East Coast time seven 96 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:04,360 Speaker 2: excuse me, nine to ten, nine to eleven, I'll get 97 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 2: it right. Nine to eleven. We'll be up a little 98 00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 2: earlier that in Mountain Standard time. On Apple podcasts. This 99 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:24,000 Speaker 2: is single best idea