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Speaker 3: We now turn to Claudia sam without question my Economists
Speaker 3: of the Year for two twenty five or impact her
Speaker 3: informed debate off the Simmer role. Of course, all of it,
Speaker 3: you know, really focused on Jackson Hole, and she had
Speaker 3: a dinner at Jackson Hole, folks. I couldn't go to
Speaker 3: it because a golf stream was leaving Dodge. But Claudia
Speaker 3: Sim with huge influence here in twenty twenty four, so
Speaker 3: I got to go just to the ratios and I
Speaker 3: look at the unemployment rate four point one percent, the
Speaker 3: quiescence there. The revisions are a little more less enthusiastic
Speaker 3: than maybe what we saw twenty nine days ago. I'm
Speaker 3: just looking at you know, there's eight nine six statistics here,
Speaker 3: manufacturing payrolls negative six thousand, and the revision features up
Speaker 3: twenty three, now up twenty there's a little bit of
Speaker 3: a pullback, and the equity MARKETSIVIX twenty two point zero eight.
Speaker 3: Paul Sweeney always going to the two year yeo Apolic
Speaker 3: comes in with a vengeance.
Speaker 4: Here, that's the point one two percent.
Speaker 5: Yeah, four point one two percent.
Speaker 6: So again the revision's time just from the last month,
Speaker 6: changing non farm payrolls, we were at two fifty four
Speaker 6: now revised down to two twenty three, so a little
Speaker 6: bit weaker. But again the headline today twelve thousand changing
Speaker 6: non farm payrolls. Consensus was one hundred thousand. But again
Speaker 6: the economists have been warning us that, you know, we
Speaker 6: had the hurricanes, we've got some various strikes, and that's
Speaker 6: going to make this number, you know, a little bit tough.
Speaker 3: This Yeah, and again the net revision is a negative
Speaker 3: one twelve.
Speaker 4: So it's easy math.
Speaker 3: I take twelve thousand positive minus one twelve is a
Speaker 3: negative one hundred thousand. Claudius sim is going, and why
Speaker 3: am I dealing with these financial media tools, she joins
Speaker 3: us right now, I mean the value here, Claudie, is
Speaker 3: going to be am I correct massive revisions thirty sixty
Speaker 3: even ninety days out.
Speaker 7: When not even necessarily revisions, we could just see next
Speaker 7: month's number be a big, strong positive, right, kind of unwinded.
Speaker 7: They're really we had two major hurricanes and we had
Speaker 7: a strike happening in the period that we're trying to
Speaker 7: measure jobs. It probably really was a hit to the jobs. Now,
Speaker 7: I will say I feel pre vindicated. My substack piece
Speaker 7: this week that was the preview for this was talking
Speaker 7: about this could be our negative payroll print, and it's
Speaker 7: it's not negative. So I was wrong on that one,
Speaker 7: but it is this was a low print. And the
Speaker 7: argument there is even if we had even if like
Speaker 7: the reality is we're kind of moving along at trend growth,
Speaker 7: which is a little under two hundred thousand, like that
Speaker 7: was the pace before the pandemic. Well, you get one
Speaker 7: hundred thousand knocked off because of hurricanes and the strike,
Speaker 7: which was Governor Chris Waller's as sestimate of what that
Speaker 7: effect would be. And then you take into account that
Speaker 7: these are survey estimates, they are imprecise. The BLS tells
Speaker 7: us that always the confidence interval around an estimate is
Speaker 7: over one hundred thousand jobs. So we really that number,
Speaker 7: that twelve thousand we got today that could be entirely
Speaker 7: consistent with the labor market that's growing at Trent and frankly,
Speaker 7: the un employment rate staying low. That really goes in
Speaker 7: that court.
Speaker 4: Let me get out that.
Speaker 7: This was more disruptions.
Speaker 4: Let me get out front.
Speaker 3: It's November one, so it's not tacky. If I was
Speaker 3: saying she was our economist of the Year in September,
Speaker 3: that would be tacky.
Speaker 4: But come on November one.
Speaker 3: Neil Dutta last year killed it with his optimism on
Speaker 3: three percentage GDP. Claudius, I'm killed it this year, charging
Speaker 3: the debate here on our labor economy. She's a New
Speaker 3: Century Advisors, Claudius, I'm SIA next month joining us right
Speaker 3: now in studio Ellen Zenner, she runs an Apple iPhone
Speaker 3: Like no one do you need an iPhone sixteen to
Speaker 3: go through the data faster?
Speaker 4: Now normally going this.
Speaker 8: Is my work phone.
Speaker 9: I am a Android Samsummer.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I'm that age guys.
Speaker 9: Yeah, as I'm forced to use an iPhone and I
Speaker 9: only know how to check email slow motion.
Speaker 3: Lisa Shllett has the iPhone sixteen pro Ellen Center with
Speaker 3: us now, of course, with Morgan Stanley's Global Investment Office.
Speaker 3: You linked consumption into labor like nobody I know. We
Speaker 3: had a buoyant consumption number are we taking it all
Speaker 3: from savings and is it a fake labor economy?
Speaker 8: No, not at all.
Speaker 9: I mean, look, new data that we got some weeks
Speaker 9: ago showed that it turns out we've spent a lot
Speaker 9: more than we thought, and savings was still higher because
Speaker 9: income numbers are just been revised up that much.
Speaker 8: So we still got income that's really robust.
Speaker 9: And I agree with Claudia that there is still a
Speaker 9: lot of disruption in these numbers, and this probably is
Speaker 9: consistent with a labor market growing at trend, and so
Speaker 9: we're still producing enough income to support consumption. I mean,
Speaker 9: look at consumption of lower income consumers. They are really
Speaker 9: going to love these lower gas prices that frees up
Speaker 9: a lot of buying power as well. So still yeah, yeah,
Speaker 9: and wage growth is still healthy while inflation's coming down.
Speaker 9: So you got real wages that are positive, You've got
Speaker 9: gas prices that are lower, and so you're getting some
Speaker 9: support coming back for lower income households as well.
Speaker 6: So you mentioned the average hourly earnings on a year
Speaker 6: of a year basis four percent. That's pretty solid, right,
Speaker 6: I mean, give us a sense of historically where that
Speaker 6: number typically comes in.
Speaker 9: Well, that number, so look average hourly earnings in this report.
Speaker 9: It's a tiny sample and it can be distorted from
Speaker 9: month to month depending on what hours worked do so
Speaker 9: it's a calculation thing. And so four percent average dollity
Speaker 9: earnings on you over your basis, you would say, gosh,
Speaker 9: that's a little bit higher than what would be consistent
Speaker 9: with the fed's two percent goal. But you look, I'll
Speaker 9: get the Employment Cost Index, which came out this week.
Speaker 9: That was Yellen's favorite measure. It continues to be the
Speaker 9: Fed's favorite measures moment. It's a much more comprehensive measure
Speaker 9: of wages and labor costs. And that is absolutely right
Speaker 9: now consistent with the fed's two percentle which means that
Speaker 9: yes it is.
Speaker 8: It is healthy. So you're right, it's healthy, but it's
Speaker 8: not too.
Speaker 4: Amazing, not too fast. I'm bringing it up while you're talking.
Speaker 3: ECI from five percent five percent into three point nine
Speaker 3: percent year of year nowhere near back to two point
Speaker 3: seventy five percent, sort of pre pandemic as well. You know,
Speaker 3: we should talk to her about hourly earnings. In the
Speaker 3: effect of the Yankees defense, I.
Speaker 9: Mean, and I want to talk about the Yankees, I can't.
Speaker 9: I turned it off at the eighth inning on Monday.
Speaker 9: I turned it off in that last game.
Speaker 8: I was just I was disgusted.
Speaker 4: I choose a third row with Ellen.
Speaker 5: What do you think this Federal Reserve should do with
Speaker 5: data like this?
Speaker 6: Here to any other data we've seen over the last
Speaker 6: several weeks as a get together, next week cut cut?
Speaker 10: Yeah?
Speaker 5: How much?
Speaker 8: Yeah? Twenty five?
Speaker 9: Okay, Yeah, the the the economy's fine. And every time
Speaker 9: we get great data, the market wants to pressure and say, well,
Speaker 9: the Fed doesn't need to do more here, but what
Speaker 9: is cheripalganas stress next week? Yeah, the economy is fine,
Speaker 9: the economy is great, so let's keep it there. Let's
Speaker 9: keep it there. And look, we've got ample room to cut.
Speaker 9: We don't know where neutral is, so we're going to
Speaker 9: baby step it there. I mean, they're in a great position,
Speaker 9: having started the cutting cycle before the election, so they're
Speaker 9: in a great position. If there's some something that impacts
Speaker 9: the outlook for the economy, you can speed up rate
Speaker 9: cuts easily, you can pull rate cuts forward. I'm more
Speaker 9: in the camp of the risk of more than less
Speaker 9: from the Fed.
Speaker 4: We are so thrilled, folks, So this job stay covers.
Speaker 3: You have Claudia sim with wis constant hundred before with
Speaker 3: Eiu and to have doctor Sam with us, and then
Speaker 3: Ellen Zendner Lizaye Saunders is on deck looking at the
Speaker 3: equity market response, particularly out beyond the election, and then
Speaker 3: Ira Jersey will uh show up with us? We don't
Speaker 3: care at all what Irah thinks all we want to
Speaker 3: do is talk about Astonville.
Speaker 8: I thought it was all you.
Speaker 9: Want to do is have a man on the show,
Speaker 9: because it's an all woman This is the all woman warning.
Speaker 4: You know, I don't think there's any you know, we
Speaker 4: didn't do that diversity.
Speaker 8: It's about diversity.
Speaker 4: We it just worked out that way.
Speaker 9: How I would it just so happens all the women
Speaker 9: are the experts. It just worked out that way.
Speaker 4: As tough as.
Speaker 6: Nails, Ellen, How about the consumer here? I mean the
Speaker 6: consumers employed, the consumers getting wage gains, inflation's coming down.
Speaker 5: How do you feel about the US consumer these days?
Speaker 9: I think the used consumers is it's I would say great,
Speaker 9: except that we still have a lot of our eggs
Speaker 9: in one basket. The wealthy consumer is still driving the
Speaker 9: majority of spending. But but like I said, I'm encouraged
Speaker 9: at some of the developments for lower income groups that
Speaker 9: we're continuing to create jobs, wages are growing.
Speaker 4: This is import We're going to stop here, gas price.
Speaker 4: This is really.
Speaker 3: Important, folks. We're going to take the Morgan Stanley continuum
Speaker 3: me here right now, let's take it into death siles
Speaker 3: tenth of economy. The pandemic stereotype is the rich did well,
Speaker 3: no surprise there, and the lower one and two death
Speaker 3: siles were benefited because they were taking care of the rich.
Speaker 3: What does that death sile construction look like into Q
Speaker 3: one twenty twenty.
Speaker 9: Five, so well, the hope is that that the spending
Speaker 9: is diffused more across those death siles. So before COVID,
Speaker 9: the top the top quintiles, so the top two death
Speaker 9: stiles represented about forty percent of consumer spending. That bumped
Speaker 9: up to forty five percent of consumer spending. And it's
Speaker 9: stayed there.
Speaker 4: It's still there.
Speaker 8: It's still there.
Speaker 9: The top two quintiles are more than sixty percent of
Speaker 9: consumer spending. And so what you want to see is
Speaker 9: we start to have some share come back to lower
Speaker 9: income households because they're contributing more broadly to consumers.
Speaker 4: But you haven't seen this yet. Into the election.
Speaker 9: Haven't seen it yet, right, and that's important right into
Speaker 9: the election. Yes, we haven't seen any to interpolate.
Speaker 3: Those death sile analysis to say that the haves have
Speaker 3: a GDP of four or five six percent real GDP
Speaker 3: and the have nots are near recession.
Speaker 9: Well, the have nots have been in recession for a
Speaker 9: couple of years. I would say that they're emerging from that.
Speaker 9: What delayed them moving into recession was that incredible savings
Speaker 9: cushion that they received when we put in all the
Speaker 9: stimulus during COVID. Once they spent through that savings, but
Speaker 9: still we're dealing with extraordinarily high rent inflation, food inflation,
Speaker 9: energy prices inflation, you know that, and wage growth that
Speaker 9: was not outpacing inflation. That's when they were in recession,
Speaker 9: and you could follow companies that cater to them and
Speaker 9: the troubles that they were having. You could see it,
Speaker 9: and the products consumers were buying. It was all being
Speaker 9: supported by wealthy. We don't want to have our eggs
Speaker 9: in one basket, right. We want consumer spending to diffuse more.
Speaker 8: Broadly across households.
Speaker 9: We want all households to participate in the expansion, and
Speaker 9: so we do have some positive developments here. Wages are
Speaker 9: growing on an inflation adjusted basis, the gas prices to
Speaker 9: all of that, right, they've still got very high cost
Speaker 9: of living just in terms of housing costs. As the
Speaker 9: FED cuts rates, you know that the market prices in
Speaker 9: the whole path of Fed cuts immediately. Fed even hints
Speaker 9: at doing something. What doesn't move yet until they actually
Speaker 9: cut rates. Are the rates say that you pay on
Speaker 9: your credit card debt, and it is younger and lower
Speaker 9: income households that revolve a lot of that credit card debt.
Speaker 9: And so as the Fed continues to cut rates, that's
Speaker 9: going to take some pressure off of them as well.
Speaker 3: We're talking Pennsylvania swing steak Gurz out there trying every
Speaker 3: beer today. Have you ever brown trout fished in Pennsylvania?
Speaker 3: Like real, it's like nineteenth century trout fishing.
Speaker 4: Have you ever done that?
Speaker 9: Yeah, that's that's where we go for small stream fishing.
Speaker 9: Small stream and a half foot rod is perfect, a
Speaker 9: flick of the wrist, It's very easy.
Speaker 8: Small streams.
Speaker 9: The brown trouts are fierce there.
Speaker 4: Really.
Speaker 8: Yeah, you're going after out west.
Speaker 9: Yeah, compared to ten inch twelve inch little brown trout.
Speaker 8: Fierce they're fears, fierce fighters.
Speaker 4: Catching release or like we cook in thechen release. You're
Speaker 4: not cooking a cot release.
Speaker 3: You're not cooking up three of them, you know, surf Elzabone.
Speaker 3: Saunders would be charged. She'd have the grill going, yeah, out.
Speaker 9: There doing hey, maybe maybe a brook trout here?
Speaker 4: And where's your secret stream in Pennsylvania? Don't give this
Speaker 4: the name? But what which beer is it?
Speaker 9: It makes no sense.
Speaker 8: Tom.
Speaker 9: You said the word secret. What's your secret stream? And
Speaker 9: it's no longer a secret anymore?
Speaker 4: See Ellen Saner, thank you so much for jobs today.
Speaker 4: Let's move on to someone constructive. Okay, Alen Xander with Burgocilli.
Speaker 3: This is great, Claudius, I'm Ellen Zetner here with your
Speaker 3: job market inequities improve a perfect security into Liz and
Speaker 3: Saunder wouldn't know a brown trout if it hit her
Speaker 3: over the head, Liz Anne, I look at futures up thirty,
Speaker 3: I look at the mag seven hysteria. Liz Anne, I'm
Speaker 3: begging get us into Q one twenty twenty five.
Speaker 4: What is our commitment to equities?
Speaker 10: Well, I do worry a little bit about some some
Speaker 10: froth in the market. Although you've had some weakness that
Speaker 10: might ease a little bit of that even outside of
Speaker 10: traditional investor sentiment measures. You know, the consumer competence report
Speaker 10: that came out, which was better in terms of headline confidence,
Speaker 10: also had a record high percentage of respondent saying they
Speaker 10: thought stock prices would be higher. So you see another
Speaker 10: behavioral data. So as I think between now and the
Speaker 10: first part of twenty twenty five, especially now with twenty
Speaker 10: five estimates coming down for earnings, my biggest concern is
Speaker 10: just that back of a little bit of frauthy sentiment
Speaker 10: all l sequel. I think that means if you get
Speaker 10: any kind of negative catalyst, I don't know that today's
Speaker 10: weaker jobs report would be that because of what in
Speaker 10: first for bed policy. That to me is the background
Speaker 10: risk heatting into twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3: To my essay of the year two years ago, which
Speaker 3: was a brilliant effort by Lawrence MacDonald on the wall
Speaker 3: of money that was out there in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 3: liz Ane Saunders, is there a wall of money still
Speaker 3: out there trying to find a warm place.
Speaker 10: Well, A lot of people point to the six trillion
Speaker 10: plus in my market funds as some wall that could
Speaker 10: come into the equity market. I'm not sure I agree
Speaker 10: with that assessment. I think that a lot of that
Speaker 10: money is pretty sticky. A lot of that money came
Speaker 10: in because of higher yields and out of riskier areas,
Speaker 10: whether it's on the fixed income side of things or
Speaker 10: in the equity side of things. And actually, if you
Speaker 10: look historically at the early part of cutting cycles, money
Speaker 10: actually continues to flow into money market funds, not in
Speaker 10: the opposite direction. So I don't view that as some
Speaker 10: imminent wall of money that could find its way into equities.
Speaker 10: I think that's probably a good chunk of that is
Speaker 10: pretty sticky.
Speaker 6: Luzanne, what are you seeing from earnings so far this quarter?
Speaker 6: We had started off strong with the big banks, We've
Speaker 6: had a bunch of tech earnings. What are you seeing
Speaker 6: and what do you think the market needs to see
Speaker 6: from earnings?
Speaker 10: Well, this is obviously a big week with five of
Speaker 10: Magnificent seven reporting, and in terms of Meta and Microsoft,
Speaker 10: at least a quick glance, they didn't look bad. But
Speaker 10: at the expense side of things, I think it's the
Speaker 10: monetization story that really kicked in in the second quarter.
Speaker 10: I think it's continued in the third quarter. Reporting season,
Speaker 10: which is the vast amount of expenses associated with AI,
Speaker 10: not just among the director indirect AI players, but across
Speaker 10: the spectrum of industries and sectors, and maybe the time
Speaker 10: gap between those investments and the monetization thereof, either from
Speaker 10: a revenue perspective or a productivity perspective. So I think
Speaker 10: we're continuing that theme and it helps to explain some
Speaker 10: of the weakness like yesterday and tech.
Speaker 3: We're going to go CEFA inside baseball. Right now, Lizzie
Speaker 3: and I am apoplectic over this simplistic income statement analysis
Speaker 3: of the financial media.
Speaker 4: You got to pull.
Speaker 3: In profit, distribution of profit, use of cash is the buzzword,
Speaker 3: and even into improved balance sheet dynamics. Are we slaves
Speaker 3: to a simple income statement analysis or do you see
Speaker 3: more out there when you look at free cash flow,
Speaker 3: free cash flow growth and what it means to a
Speaker 3: dominant balance sheet.
Speaker 10: I do see more of that out there, especially as
Speaker 10: you move away from the dominant cap weighted indexes like
Speaker 10: the S and P and the NASDAC and you go
Speaker 10: into some of the smaller cap indexes within say the
Speaker 10: Rustle two thousand. I think that's where you do see
Speaker 10: that factor differentiation that is more acute, whether it's high
Speaker 10: interest coverage versus low interest coverage, or zombie companies versus
Speaker 10: non zombie companies, profitability type factors to your point, Tom,
Speaker 10: high return on equity, strong free cash flow, And as
Speaker 10: you know because we've talked about it a ton on
Speaker 10: this program, is I think that factor orientation, maybe not
Speaker 10: instead of a sector orientation, but as an overlay to
Speaker 10: that sector orientation, I think has been crucial and I
Speaker 10: think will continue to be crucial. There's much more consistency
Speaker 10: in performance at the factor level than there is at
Speaker 10: the sector level.
Speaker 3: Well, you just heard their folks as gospel, liz Ane Saunders.
Speaker 3: What are the factor constructive tone of MAG seven?
Speaker 4: Which factors benefit meg seven?
Speaker 10: Well, they are the most part very strong cash generation companies,
Speaker 10: and not just the MAG seven but the megacap tech
Speaker 10: tech related kind of names. They really took advantage of
Speaker 10: the rate backdrop that preceded the hiking cycle. And in
Speaker 10: most cases, many of these megacap companies are earning more
Speaker 10: interest on their cash and they're paying interest on that.
Speaker 10: They're not at the mercy of where we sit in
Speaker 10: this cycle. The one thing I want to say though
Speaker 10: about the mag seven is the moniker was created when
Speaker 10: those were the seven largest stocks in the S and
Speaker 10: P five hundred. Last year, they were not the seven
Speaker 10: best performing stocks, but they were all very strong performers.
Speaker 10: That's not the case this year. They're not even the
Speaker 10: seven largest stocks anymore. Tessel's not even in the top
Speaker 10: ten anymore. You have to go down to ranking number
Speaker 10: three hundred and fifty three within the S and P
Speaker 10: five hundred to capture all seven of those names. If
Speaker 10: you look at the top ten best performers in the SMP,
Speaker 10: only one of them is in the Magnificent seven, and
Speaker 10: it's not even the best performer. The best performer is
Speaker 10: the utility. So I think we have to change our mindset.
Speaker 10: We get wrapped into these monikers in these groupings, even
Speaker 10: if they fail to represent what they did when the
Speaker 10: idea was first created. Berkshire Hathaway is now number seven.
Speaker 10: I haven't heard anybody suggesting that gets put into the
Speaker 10: MAGS seven. So a broader thinking around market construction.
Speaker 3: Lizen gotta leave it there. We look forward to getting
Speaker 3: you on again soon. Lizzie Saunder.
Speaker 4: Of course at Connick with Charles Schwab.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 2: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just
Speaker 2: Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty Jessica Taylor.
Speaker 3: She is exquisite on Senate Dynamics and she publishes this morning.
Speaker 4: Jessica, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 3: Love the cook political report telling people to shut up
Speaker 3: and subscribe. At the bottom of your note, you've got
Speaker 3: a bar chart of money made, money earned, money coming
Speaker 3: in versus vote. What's a correlation of money coming in
Speaker 3: Nebraska Osborne and Fisher? What's a correlation of money coming
Speaker 3: in to electoral outcome?
Speaker 6: Well?
Speaker 11: I think that when you have a state like Nebraska,
Speaker 11: this very Republican, and you have Dan Osborne, who's an independent,
Speaker 11: trying to stress that he's not a Democrat, even though
Speaker 11: a lot of the outside money coming in to help
Speaker 11: him is from outside democratic groups. He's been able to
Speaker 11: control the airwaves and set the narrative. We even see
Speaker 11: his latest ads running against deb Fisher there in a
Speaker 11: state that Trump won by twenty points. Making an out
Speaker 11: overt appeal to Trump voters. You know, he's the most
Speaker 11: unique candidate of this cycle. And the Nebraska I did
Speaker 11: not expect on November first to be talking about Nebraska
Speaker 11: at all. You know, he's underscoring his blue collar roots.
Speaker 11: You know, he says that actually, for him, the one hundred
Speaker 11: and seventy four thousand dollars the salary of a senator
Speaker 11: would be a pay race. So I think that's breaking
Speaker 11: through with a lot of people when we look at
Speaker 11: where the economy everything is, so no one would know
Speaker 11: who he is if he was not able to get
Speaker 11: this money and to get his name out there.
Speaker 3: With your Senate focus, I want to get you into
Speaker 3: the Amy Walter timeout chare. With your Senate focus, can
Speaker 3: you frame out probability of a Republican Trump sweep.
Speaker 11: I mean, I think that if there is going to
Speaker 11: be a trifecta, it will be a Republican one. And
Speaker 11: that's simply because the Senate is overwhelmingly favored to go
Speaker 11: to Republicans. My final Senate analysis is publishing maybe momentarily
Speaker 11: on our website.
Speaker 4: I see it. It's out, Oh, it is up.
Speaker 11: Okay, we predict that Republicans will pick up two to
Speaker 11: five seats, which gives them a majority of anywhere between
Speaker 11: fifty one and fifty four seats. You know, we came
Speaker 11: into this cycle with Democrats having to depend twenty three
Speaker 11: seats to just eleven for Republicans. Republicans are going to
Speaker 11: pick up West Virginia. We know that they're favorite in
Speaker 11: Montana over Democratic Senator Shared Brown, and that gives them
Speaker 11: to fifty one. So it just means that, you know,
Speaker 11: do they add Ohio where the race is neck and
Speaker 11: neck Shared Brown could defy the odds. And when they're
Speaker 11: even in a state that Trump carried twice by eight points,
Speaker 11: those other Blue Wall states Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all
Speaker 11: remain very close in toss ups.
Speaker 5: So I just have a.
Speaker 11: Hard time seeing, you know, they Democrats need to float Nebraska.
Speaker 11: But even though you know, Osborne says you Wood and
Speaker 11: Caucus with Democrats, Texas is the one. So there's just
Speaker 11: far more paths for Republicans. And then I think that
Speaker 11: if we're seeing Republicans win in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan
Speaker 11: Senate races, that means that Trump has won those probably,
Speaker 11: so that means that he's won the presidency, and I
Speaker 11: think also, you know, the House is very narrow. It's
Speaker 11: a true toss up, but I think that probably as
Speaker 11: the presidency goes, as the House goes. So just because
Speaker 11: of the way the Senate math is, I have a
Speaker 11: hard time seeing Democrats winning the majority, and so that
Speaker 11: would preclude them from a TRIFACTA.
Speaker 6: I think, how about the House, Jessica, what racist should
Speaker 6: we be looking at for the House of Representatives?
Speaker 11: Yeah, so New York and California feature some of the
Speaker 11: top races, and you know those are not presidential battlegrounds,
Speaker 11: but Democrats suffered from lower turnout in the midterms. They're
Speaker 11: hoping that higher residential turnout helps them. And there are
Speaker 11: some races that we've you know, moved toward Democrats in California,
Speaker 11: but some Republicans are still hanging on there, sort of
Speaker 11: running ahead of where Trump is in those states. There's
Speaker 11: a couple of open seats in Michigan seventh District, for instance,
Speaker 11: the open seat that Alissa Slockin is leaving to run
Speaker 11: for Senate, and Tom Barrett has been has been raising
Speaker 11: a lot of money, you know, even though Democrats are
Speaker 11: spending heavily there. We see that race as slightly favoring him.
Speaker 11: And then you know, if you're looking for early seats
Speaker 11: on election, I see how they go. There's a couple
Speaker 11: in Virginia, Virginia second and Virginia seventh district that are
Speaker 11: also very tight that could give us an early indication
Speaker 11: of how the House is going.
Speaker 3: Charlie Cook has an absolutely brilliant essay here folks out
Speaker 3: in the last couple of days on the lack of
Speaker 3: land slides like we used to have a dearth of
Speaker 3: land slides. He goes into, you know, item by item,
Speaker 3: the closeness.
Speaker 4: Of these races over.
Speaker 3: The years, and as you know, Jessica, Charlie goes to
Speaker 3: the surprises. What's your biggest potential set the surprise.
Speaker 11: I think it's Texas CRUs Yeah, I mean Democrats have
Speaker 11: pulling that shows this race hide other public polling does not.
Speaker 11: I still think those like you know, Cruse had a
Speaker 11: very close race in twenty eighteen. He actually very much
Speaker 11: benefited from it being a midterm year where the Republican
Speaker 11: governor Greg Abbott had a far better turnout machine. I
Speaker 11: think that Cruz is very vulnerable on abortion. You know,
Speaker 11: we saw Harris go there last week to sort of
Speaker 11: emphasize the state's very stringent abortion laws. In fact, you know,
Speaker 11: while other states are able to have referendums to overturn
Speaker 11: the Texas does not allow that. And you know, just
Speaker 11: this week there was the story of a woman who
Speaker 11: was denied care after a miscarriage and she died. So
Speaker 11: I think those are very much in focus right now.
Speaker 11: And this is what I you know, if Democrats have
Speaker 11: a better night than expected, I think it probably has
Speaker 11: to do with it. You know, I'm cognizant of the
Speaker 11: fact that in twenty twenty two the polling actually underestimated Democrats.
Speaker 11: And if Democrats have a better night overall, if Harris does,
Speaker 11: if some one like Colin Allread in Texas does, I
Speaker 11: think it's because the potency of abortion and the Dobbs
Speaker 11: issue after Roefel is still very powerful and is driving
Speaker 11: a lot of voters, particularly female voters.
Speaker 3: Jessica Taylor, thank you so much for quok political report
Speaker 3: her focus on the US Senate.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 3: And our I call be on the Sikorski out west
Speaker 3: of Pittsburgh, I might say towards Indiana. University of Pennsylvania.
Speaker 3: David Gurra joins US now off of Wisconsin. He's the
Speaker 3: one who said to me times shut up. It's Arizona
Speaker 3: that matters. But now there'll be the trek east for
Speaker 3: David Gurra. He will end up Paul Election night, sixteenth Street, Philadelphia.
Speaker 4: Monk's Cafe is this is They.
Speaker 3: Serve four hundred beers including Iron City Beer, and David
Speaker 3: Girl will be there.
Speaker 4: I want to go to Connor Lamb.
Speaker 3: Okay, conservative Democrat ran against Fetterman, lost out in the
Speaker 3: wilderness now of democratic politics. What is Connor Lamb's best
Speaker 3: outcome in Pennsylvania Tuesday night.
Speaker 1: That's a great question. I mean, I think this is
Speaker 1: going to be another tight race. And you know, I,
Speaker 1: as you say, just came back from Wisconsin where the
Speaker 1: candidate whom I was following there, Tammy Baldwin, was talking
Speaker 1: about how she's in a fifty to fifty race. It's
Speaker 1: on a razor's edge. We've been talking about this as
Speaker 1: it's manifested itself in the polls over these last many months.
Speaker 1: But these candidates are living it and this has been
Speaker 1: a long slog for them. But nobody's taking anything for
Speaker 1: granted here, I think in these final few days, and
Speaker 1: something bastood out to me as I was there on
Speaker 1: the campaign trailers. The attitude is every vote matters. And
Speaker 1: we've talked a lot about these kind of mythic undecided voters.
Speaker 1: That's not who these folks are focusing on now. It's
Speaker 1: getting people who have voted in the past but might
Speaker 1: not have last time or the time before that, to
Speaker 1: recognize that it's important to get out there, mail that
Speaker 1: ballot in or go to the polls in person.
Speaker 3: I mean, I put boxes of Amazon outside my door
Speaker 3: last night so the kids wouldn't trick or treat there.
Speaker 4: I mean, Paul, And that's how antisocial I am. David
Speaker 4: Gerd is knocking on doors matter anymore?
Speaker 11: You know?
Speaker 1: I talked to a number of Tammy Baldwin supporters, some
Speaker 1: of whom are in unions. They're being organized by their
Speaker 1: unions to go out. Maybe not even live in Wisconsin,
Speaker 1: they live in Minnesota, or they live in Illinois and
Speaker 1: the strategy has changed. It's not just kind of randomly
Speaker 1: knocking on doors. They're being targeted, you know, go to
Speaker 1: this Democrats house, go to this person who has voted
Speaker 1: for us in the past and might do it again.
Speaker 1: They're not doing the kind of cold knocking where it's
Speaker 1: going to be a Trump supporter who's going to show
Speaker 1: them off their front law. And they're really again trying
Speaker 1: to get those who are been committed in the past
Speaker 1: and might be but yes, and what the refrain was
Speaker 1: is explain why you're doing it, why this election is important,
Speaker 1: and seal the deal at the end. Try to get
Speaker 1: that person to say, you know what, great to talk
Speaker 1: to you. I'm going to show up at the polling
Speaker 1: place on Tuesday.
Speaker 4: How touch you feeling, Paula. They knocked on you.
Speaker 6: I havn't knocked on my door, thankfully. They're welcome to
Speaker 6: the Jersey Shore anytime. David, if it is a real
Speaker 6: story to get the vote out, is there a feeling
Speaker 6: when you were in Wisconsin or that maybe one side
Speaker 6: is doing a better job than the other, has got
Speaker 6: a better on the ground apparatus.
Speaker 1: We know more detail about how the Democrats, how the
Speaker 1: Harris campaign is approaching this. They're very forthright about how
Speaker 1: much money they have and how they're deploying that across
Speaker 1: the country. But the Trump campaign, in its memo to
Speaker 1: interested parties, as they put it, say that they have
Speaker 1: a very strong ground game. They're confident in how that's
Speaker 1: going to play out here over these these next few days.
Speaker 1: But when you look at the sheer number of people
Speaker 1: who are out there on the pay role, it is
Speaker 1: the Harris campaign that has the edge. And you see
Speaker 1: that just in the way that the candidates are approaching
Speaker 1: this race. Yes, Kamala Harris is doing big events. Donald
Speaker 1: Trump is doing big events, but I think it's safe
Speaker 1: to say he is relying more on the spectacle and
Speaker 1: celebrity of these big, big arena events than she is.
Speaker 1: Thinking that's going to trickle down to voters and get
Speaker 1: them animated.
Speaker 6: You know, David, as you know, all the experts are
Speaker 6: telling us this is a toss up here. Just when
Speaker 6: you're on the streets in Wisconsin, does.
Speaker 5: It feel like a toss up? Does it feel that tight?
Speaker 1: Yes, it feels extremely tight. You hear that from the candidates,
Speaker 1: you hear that from those who are organizing for them.
Speaker 1: You hear they're from the voters themselves, who are fatigued,
Speaker 1: tired of all the ads that are everywhere, the ads
Speaker 1: that are on TV, the ads that they're seeing on
Speaker 1: the side of the road as well. I mean every
Speaker 1: other billboard is a political ad, either from the candidates
Speaker 1: or one of those political groups. So they're inundated by it.
Speaker 1: But there is this broad recognition that in that state,
Speaker 1: in particularly Wisconsin, but also Pennsylvania, things have changed, the
Speaker 1: terrain has shifted. It's a closer race than it has.
Speaker 4: Been the day.
Speaker 3: David Charlie Cook right in a gorgeous essay here like
Speaker 3: two days ago as well. He talks about the lack
Speaker 3: of landslides, and then he's got a fifteen line paragraph
Speaker 3: going from Bush Gore all the way through to Trump
Speaker 3: twenty sixteen, then on the jee Biden, and he's talking
Speaker 3: about the narrowness, the reality of the narrowness. So, Pennsylvania,
Speaker 3: is it going to be ten thousand votes?
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be extremely close. And I
Speaker 1: know that there are some skeptics who say maybe the
Speaker 1: polling is wrong or there's something about it that's not
Speaker 1: quite right. It's going to be a wider margin. Yet
Speaker 1: what we do have in Pennsylvania. Which is interesting is
Speaker 1: some visibility into these early votes. You know who the
Speaker 1: state sent them out to and what parties they're affiliated with,
Speaker 1: and which have come back, and so you see Democrats
Speaker 1: having an edge there. Fascinating the story this morning, We've
Speaker 1: covered it, The Washington Post is covering at New York
Speaker 1: Times covering it this morning as well, is the role
Speaker 1: of white women in the country broadly, and in Pennsylvania
Speaker 1: in particular. It's a real difficulty for Democrats to claim
Speaker 1: them as supporters. And we look at the last election,
Speaker 1: Trump had them by a margin there. You look at
Speaker 1: the one before that, Hillary Clinton was the candidate and
Speaker 1: still wasn't able to secure them to the extent that
Speaker 1: Democrats wanted them and needed them to do. So that
Speaker 1: is a big push for the Harris campaign for Democrats
Speaker 1: now is to go after that thirty percent of the electorate,
Speaker 1: which is frankly a party electorate who does show up
Speaker 1: on election day, does get to the polls.
Speaker 5: Do we know who the undecideds are?
Speaker 6: Like when you're on the streets in Wisconsin, does somebody
Speaker 6: have a sign around their next.
Speaker 1: They're ordering the spotted cow at the bar and Yeah, No,
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that we have some vague sense
Speaker 1: of who they are, but I think that they're a
Speaker 1: rarer bird, and we've been led to believe, you know,
Speaker 1: I think that again for many months, that's who we
Speaker 1: thought these campaigns were targeting. At this point in the game,
Speaker 1: I don't think that. I don't think they've given up
Speaker 1: on them, of course, but I think that there is
Speaker 1: just such strange mystique around what may be motivating somebody
Speaker 1: like that to sit on the sidelines. As long as
Speaker 1: they have that now, it's like that's not where they're
Speaker 1: placing their rest.
Speaker 3: So do you anticipate at eleven o'clock at night you're
Speaker 3: gonna be on either your dogfish Head Rodenbach Crimson Crew,
Speaker 3: or you're gonna be looking at your Crooked Stave member
Speaker 3: Barry Sierra twenty sixteen beer.
Speaker 5: I need Thomas my Ama.
Speaker 4: You're gonna be on with AMH at eleven pm. And
Speaker 4: they don't have a clue.
Speaker 1: Right, Well, Look, I've been in touch with all of
Speaker 1: these election offices across Pennsylvania, say what's the plan gonna be?
Speaker 1: Most of them have these online dashboards and they say
Speaker 1: come nine o'clock Eastern time, Wall Street Time. For those
Speaker 1: in the audience, they're gonna begin putting those unofficial results up,
Speaker 1: we might have a good sense of where things are
Speaker 1: headed directionally. That evening they're not going to call my
Speaker 1: bed is, they're not going to call that race for
Speaker 1: several days. Officially, there's going to be a lot of uh,
Speaker 1: you know, very very specific counting of votes, and then
Speaker 1: I think there is the spectrum sort of legal action
Speaker 1: that might come in in the days that follow them.
Speaker 3: Twelve dollars chicken, liver, moose with pickled mustard seeds, house
Speaker 3: made jam, and a.
Speaker 4: Beer of your choice.
Speaker 3: Nice.
Speaker 1: I mean that's I did have a butterburger in Wisconsin
Speaker 1: and some cheese curds at Culvers. What is a butter
Speaker 1: butterburger is a Culver's tradition. It is a buttered white
Speaker 1: bread bun.
Speaker 5: With the burger.
Speaker 1: I was told to get it. It was it was
Speaker 1: you survived, slaked my hunger. I survived.
Speaker 6: He wasn't meats and exactly in Rome, cheese steaks in Philly.
Speaker 1: Travel seriously, yeah, down to Philadelphia and we're going to
Speaker 1: spend Monday and Tuesday in those you know, fabled suburbs
Speaker 1: County in.
Speaker 4: The lot fifteen seconds. Six weeks ago you said Arizona matters,
Speaker 4: still matters.
Speaker 1: Still matters. But now I you know, I have to
Speaker 1: say selfishly, Pennsylvania's the state to watch.
Speaker 5: I'll be watching it.
Speaker 3: Look for David Monk's cafe Philadelphia election. Now probably you know,
Speaker 3: I assume Borro.
Speaker 4: Will go down.
Speaker 1: I can put it on your card right tw of course,
Speaker 1: now it's on HTTO rheto keep for.
Speaker 3: DMX is in charge of all amongst cafe that receipts.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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