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Speaker 1: The volume.

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Speaker 2: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.

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Speaker 3: What is up straight Fire, fam, It's me Jason McIntyre,

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Speaker 3: Straight Fire for for Friday, November third, A fun night

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Speaker 3: in the Association. Yes, the NBA had a more spectacular

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Speaker 3: outing than the NFL. Listen. I'm not an NFL hater, obviously,

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Speaker 3: I'm not. You guys know I like the NBA, but

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Speaker 3: these Thursday night games just aren't great. Pittsburgh twenty Tennessee

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Speaker 3: sixteen we'll get to in a minute. I can't wait

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Speaker 3: to talk about Wembin Yama dropping thirty eight. If you

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Speaker 3: are just waking up, you went to bed early and

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Speaker 3: you didn't see it, You've got to see the highlights.

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Speaker 3: Wembin Yama went off and beat the Suns again. Listen,

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Speaker 3: that's a hell of a first week and a half

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Speaker 3: for Wembin Yama. We have a great guest today, Steve Fezick,

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Speaker 3: the only guy who you guys know how I refer

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Speaker 3: to like the Vegas Contest, the one million dollar contest.

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Speaker 3: He's won it twice. He went back to back. This

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Speaker 3: is way before I even entered the contest. But he's

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Speaker 3: a legend in Vegas. Steve Fessick we break down. I

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Speaker 3: believe every single game for Week nine, he really likes

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Speaker 3: my he's confused I shouldn't say like he's confused by

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Speaker 3: the Jets Chargers line. That's that's the biggest one that

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Speaker 3: is weird for him. But I don't know. It's a

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Speaker 3: tough week in the NFL. We could jump into the picks.

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Speaker 3: Let's start with the NFL game Steelers twenty Titan sixteen.

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Speaker 3: Young Will Levis had you know as expected. Listen, he

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Speaker 3: goes on the road short week. He was gross on

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Speaker 3: third down. They weren't effective moving the football. It certainly

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Speaker 3: was brutal in the red zone one for four. Yet

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Speaker 3: here he is Will Levis driving for the go ahead

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Speaker 3: score in the final minute, and then he throws a

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Speaker 3: pick in the red zone. And that's pretty much to

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Speaker 3: be expected. You can't go into Pittsburgh and have to

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Speaker 3: ask your rookie quarterback in his second start to throw

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Speaker 3: the ball thirty nine times and beat the Steelers. That's

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Speaker 3: just that's a tall order, and Levis nearly pulled it off.

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Speaker 3: He was solid. I think I don't I'm not gonna

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Speaker 3: go there's no hot take on Will Levis after two games.

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Speaker 3: Bottom line, the moment has not looked too big for him.

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Speaker 3: He's been He was really good against the Falcons. Steelers

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Speaker 3: were ready for him and did a pretty good job,

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Speaker 3: but he didn't vomb it all over himself. You know,

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Speaker 3: we've seen guys in this spot totally show up and

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Speaker 3: you know, urinate down their leg on a Thursday night

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Speaker 3: football game, National TV audience Island game, and it's like, Okay,

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Speaker 3: this guy's not quite ready. Will Lewis didn't totally see that.

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Speaker 3: Some happy feet in the pocket, But overall I didn't

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Speaker 3: think he was terrible. I will say I thought the

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Speaker 3: Pittsburgh Steelers were pretty terrible. And I'm not just saying

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Speaker 3: that because I had George Pickens in fantasy and the

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Speaker 3: guy had one cat one or two catches for like

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Speaker 3: negative one yards. This Pittsburgh offense remains really difficult to watch.

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Speaker 3: I love the idea that the OC Matt Canada. Nobody,

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Speaker 3: I mean nobody loves a good first down run up

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Speaker 3: the middle like Matt Canada. Nobody. And I love how

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Speaker 3: there was a big narrative that well, he's moving down

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Speaker 3: to the sideline. Now he's moving down to the sideline

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Speaker 3: out of the press box. Gott to change it up.

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Speaker 3: Nothing changed. They were anemic on offense five point four

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Speaker 3: yards per play. You know, listen. Obviously, the ten penalties hurt.

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Speaker 3: Pittsburgh basically let Tennessee walk down the field on the

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Speaker 3: opening drive by giving them like fifty yards and penalties.

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Speaker 3: Pathetic stuff. Pittsburgh basically just won this game because Kenny

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Speaker 3: Pickett played it ultra safe and didn't turn the ball

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Speaker 3: over and Levis had the late pick. That's it. Like

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Speaker 3: Jayalen Warren looked good, Naje Hair is still running with

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Speaker 3: a piano on his back, and the offense can't do

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Speaker 3: a damn thing. This is now fifty six straight regular

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Speaker 3: season games without four hundred yards of offense. I mean,

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Speaker 3: it's just brutal. They're a tough watch. Somehow, somehow, Pittsburgh

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Speaker 3: is five and three. They're in the playoff mix. The

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Speaker 3: good news is the good news is for the Jets

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Speaker 3: and other teams that are hoping that the Steelers stumble,

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Speaker 3: the schedule gets considerably more difficult. They still have two

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Speaker 3: games against the ascending Bengals, they have a rematch with

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Speaker 3: Cleveland on the road, and they have the Seahawks and

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Speaker 3: Ravens to close out the end. Of the season. Let's

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Speaker 3: say we give them the Packers win. Let's say we

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Speaker 3: give them the Cardinals and the Colts. I'm not ready

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Speaker 3: to give them the Patriots, although it's probably a doube.

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Speaker 3: So if we give them Colts, cards, Packers give them three,

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Speaker 3: they're now at eight. They beat the Patriots, that's nine.

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Speaker 3: I don't know that nine is going to get you

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Speaker 3: the last wildcard spot. It's a little too early to tell.

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Speaker 3: The Jets schedule is easier. They should be able to

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Speaker 3: get to ten. But we'll see. I do think if

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Speaker 3: you're Tennessee, the good news is, you know, Will Levis

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Speaker 3: is probably your start of the rest of the way.

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Speaker 3: Even when Tannehill comes back, and now you see what

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Speaker 3: you got with him, and you've got a quarterback on

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Speaker 3: a rookie deal, you maybe go try to level up

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Speaker 3: at receiver and help out. And maybe this isn't two

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Speaker 3: big of a lift. Jacksonville's very, very good, and you're

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Speaker 3: clearly playing for second in the division. But I think,

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Speaker 3: you know, if you're Tennessee, you take away some positives

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Speaker 3: from this one. Pittsburgh is just gross. Now let me

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Speaker 3: get to the NBA, and I just got to talk

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Speaker 3: about wem bin Yama. So you guys, you know, I'm

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Speaker 3: a huge Luka Danchich fan, and quietly this the MAVs

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Speaker 3: are on fire, and Luca's playing incredibly, and Kyrie Irving's

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Speaker 3: not in the lineup because he's he's injured, and I'm

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Speaker 3: excited about Luca. I like watching Luca, obviously, I like

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Speaker 3: watching Lebron. I'm a Nicks fan. But man, have you listen.

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Speaker 3: Have you seen wem ben Yama? And I mean really

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Speaker 3: seen If you go to YouTube and watch and just

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Speaker 3: punch in wem ben Yama thirty eight points versus suns,

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Speaker 3: I mean you just look at it. He is an

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Speaker 3: alien out there. Man. He makes Kevin Durant look very small.

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Speaker 3: They have run some plays the Spurs where it's basically like, hey, hey,

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Speaker 3: let's just set a backscreen for women Yama and just

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Speaker 3: throw it up near the room and he'll catch it

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Speaker 3: and literally no one can get up there. He's seven

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Speaker 3: foot three, but seems like seven seven, like he's a

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Speaker 3: minute ball out there, deft touch. This was his best

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Speaker 3: game fifteen of twenty six, thirty eight points, ten rebounds,

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Speaker 3: two blocks, only two turnovers, only three fouls, plus twenty

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Speaker 3: one now the Spurs O we're opening up a can

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Speaker 3: on these guys. I think they led by twenty in

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Speaker 3: like the second quarter, third quarter, and of course as

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Speaker 3: the NBA, everybody makes a run, the Spurs get made

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Speaker 3: it close, and then you know, wem b ben Yama

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Speaker 3: refused to put it won't refuse to capitulate. But I'm

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Speaker 3: just saying, you look at this team and it's like

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Speaker 3: wehm min Yama passes to Jeremy Sohan, who's a nice player.

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Speaker 3: I liked him, the kid out of Baylor. And then

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Speaker 3: there's Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins. I mean combined, what do

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Speaker 3: we talk about over under one point five All Star

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Speaker 3: games for those three in their career? Maybe under And

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Speaker 3: I like Kelton Johnson and I like Sohan, but like

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Speaker 3: again Seti Osman Tias Jones, who I really like, the

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Speaker 3: kid from Duke. It's it's pretty shocking that the Spurs

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Speaker 3: are three and two.

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Speaker 2: Now it's game.

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Speaker 3: We've still got seventy seven games to go. You know,

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Speaker 3: weird things happen early in the season. But going into

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Speaker 3: Phoenix and shooting for this burst fifty two percent, forty

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Speaker 3: eight percent from three and ninety two percent from the

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Speaker 3: foul line is somewhat staggering. Now, the Sons did shoot

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Speaker 3: fifty percent from three. Devin Booker returned he had a

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Speaker 3: really good game with thirty one. KD had twenty eight.

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Speaker 3: Still know, Bradley Beal has yet to make his debut,

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Speaker 3: so I'm not gonna render a verdict on the Suns.

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Speaker 3: You guys know, I'm extremely bullish on them. But it

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Speaker 3: is really easy to fall in love with wem Bin

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Speaker 3: Yama and what he brings to the table. I uh,

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Speaker 3: I had asked my buddy, who has season tickets to

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Speaker 3: the Lakers. I'm like, so, did you circle the wem

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Speaker 3: Ben Yama game. He's like, I think I'm out of town.

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Speaker 3: And of course my eyes lit up, and I was like, Jeff,

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Speaker 3: come on, bro, you know, listen this this guy. Maybe

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Speaker 3: maybe I'll try to go through my connection to try

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Speaker 3: to get in and watch wee Ben Yama. Let me

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Speaker 3: see when they are playing at they play back to

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Speaker 3: back with the Clipper in November. Oh later this month,

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Speaker 3: in two weeks they don't play the Lakers. Oh hell,

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Speaker 3: February twenty third, gim many Christmas stuff Friday night. Okay,

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Speaker 3: I can probably swing that. That's it. One trip to

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Speaker 3: the Lakers. No, I gotta be missing something. Umm, yeah,

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Speaker 3: I know this is scintillating radio. I'm sorry, not radio

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Speaker 3: podcast going through the Yeah, they only play the Lakers

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Speaker 3: three times. They play them back to back in San

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Speaker 3: Antonio in mid December. One will be on ESPN, and

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Speaker 3: then it looks like, yeah, just one more trip to

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Speaker 3: the Lakers February twenty third. So wee min Yama. Man,

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Speaker 3: he is this guy's who He's fun to watch. In

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Speaker 3: other news, Philadelphia seventy six ers. You know, first first

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Speaker 3: game post hard in trade. They look fine, Young Tyrese

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Speaker 3: Maxi not not his best game, but Kelly Oubrey continues

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Speaker 3: to light it up. It's interesting their starting backcourt was Maxi, Melton,

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Speaker 3: and Uber Junior. Okay, listen, I know they they have

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Speaker 3: Pat Bev coming off the bench and he's talking shit

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Speaker 3: to the raptors. I saw that. I'm just I'm being

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Speaker 3: real and I'm not being a hater. You're not gonna

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Speaker 3: go far when that's your backcourt Melton, Maxie and Ubra.

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Speaker 3: That's just that's not gonna do it. Now. You could

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Speaker 3: probably win a bunch of games in the regular season,

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Speaker 3: and you could beat up the Raptors who stink out loud.

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Speaker 3: But long term, I'm just Sixers fans enjoy the ride.

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Speaker 3: Now it's gonna be coming to an end, all right,

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Speaker 3: Without further ado, let's get to our guest. He is

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Speaker 3: Steve Fezick breaking down Week nine in the NFL. The

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Speaker 3: NFL season is going strong, and DraftKings sportsbook is hooking

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Speaker 3: game day this October. I think you've got to look

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Speaker 3: first and foremost at the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick

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Speaker 3: Mahomes giving under a field goal against the Miami Dolphins

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Speaker 3: in Germany. You got the Chiefs coming off a humbling,

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Speaker 3: ugly loss where they did not score a touchdown offensively,

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Speaker 3: and you got the Miami Dolphins and their high octane

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Speaker 3: offense coming in. I think the only way to look

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Speaker 3: is that Chiefs defense has been really underrated, just an

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Speaker 3: excellent stop unit, and Patrick Mahomes in a rebound spot

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Speaker 3: void in Ontario. Bonus bets expire one hundred sixty eight

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Speaker 3: hours after issuance. See Sportsbook dot DraftKings dot com, slash

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Speaker 3: Football terms for eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms and responsible

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Speaker 3: gaming resources.

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Speaker 2: You know a guy Jason likes to think he knows

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Speaker 2: everything when it comes to sports.

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Speaker 3: I know what sports fans want, but for.

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Speaker 2: Everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does. Let's

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Speaker 2: just say I know a guy who knows a guy

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Speaker 2: who knows another guy.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's welcome into straight fire a legend. I mean, listen,

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Speaker 3: you guys know I talk about the Vegas contest all

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Speaker 3: the time. I've done it seven years, close to cashing twice. Well,

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Speaker 3: this guest has won the damn thing. He went back

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Speaker 3: to back. It was a little while ago, but he's

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Speaker 3: running super hot right now. Steve Feesick, professional gambler. Steve,

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Speaker 3: how are you man?

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Speaker 2: I am good, Jason.

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Speaker 1: It's always difficult to win when you're sports betting, and

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Speaker 1: we never want to make it sound like it's easy.

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Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, no, No, the toughest thing to do. I

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Speaker 3: mean listen, stock Market, you can just put your money

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Speaker 3: in there. It does great. I mean listen, This NFL

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Speaker 3: gambling is almost a fool's errand it's that hard to

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Speaker 3: do well. But we're having you on. We bring on

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Speaker 3: gamblers every week and you look at the card this week.

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Speaker 3: A lot of great games. But I'll be honest, Steve

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Speaker 3: some of these lines surprise me big time. Where would

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Speaker 3: you like to start Dealer's choice?

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Speaker 1: Go for it, you know, let's go all the way

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Speaker 1: to Monday night football. Because here's a line, and this

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Speaker 1: is very rare that I just don't understand the line,

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Speaker 1: and that the Chargers are a little bit better than

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Speaker 1: the Jets. You're to date, Chargers are disappointed, and the

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Speaker 1: Jets obviously don't have a quarterback, and the Chargers like

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Speaker 1: two and a half points, three points better than the Jets,

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Speaker 1: but the games in New York, and the Chargers are

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Speaker 1: laying three and a half, And I don't understand where

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Speaker 1: the irrational exuberance is and why people are rushing to

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Speaker 1: the window to back the Chargers at a number above three.

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Speaker 1: And I know other guests come on, say this number

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Speaker 1: is off by seven or this numbers off by ten.

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Speaker 2: That's all nonsense. It's not true.

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Speaker 1: Almost every NFL line is right within a point in

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Speaker 1: terms of my power ratings, which I tweet out at

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Speaker 1: HSIK sports each and every week. But this game is

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Speaker 1: the rare exception where I would have made this game

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Speaker 1: like Chargers minus one and they're laying three and a half.

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Speaker 1: So I have great value on the Jets.

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Speaker 3: So talk to me about why you think that it's

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Speaker 3: lined as such. Now it was three earlier. This week,

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Speaker 3: we've seen the Jets have a lot of offensive line injuries.

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Speaker 3: They might start four backups against Khalil Mack and Bosa.

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Speaker 3: Not ideal Chargers coming off a big win on an

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Speaker 3: island game. Maybe they got right in air quotes. I

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Speaker 3: don't know. Every time I look at the Jets, I

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Speaker 3: see this defense shows well against elite quarterbacks. Whether it's

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Speaker 3: hurts Mahome Allen, they all had their worst games of

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Speaker 3: the season against his defense. I'm kind of with you.

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Speaker 3: I like the Jets, but is there something we're possibly

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Speaker 3: missing as to why there's.

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Speaker 2: The possibility that I missed something.

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Speaker 1: I probably frankly did miss something to be so misligned

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Speaker 1: versus the market. But you know, the beauty is I

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Speaker 1: don't have to be right and think the game should

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Speaker 1: be pick. I just have to be directionally right and

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Speaker 1: think that these teams are more competitive than the market does.

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Speaker 1: The Betters like offense more than defense, and obviously they

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Speaker 1: like good quarterbacks more than bad quarterbacks, and so that'll

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Speaker 1: land them both on the Chargers.

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Speaker 2: But who are the Chargers you look at the body

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Speaker 2: of work.

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Speaker 1: One really nice game, but it was on national TV

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Speaker 1: against the Bears, and you know, Goldfish memory, what.

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Speaker 2: Have you done for me lately?

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Speaker 1: The only way I can get there is if I

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Speaker 1: use priors and you look at what the Chargers expectation

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Speaker 1: was before the season started and then and maybe that's

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Speaker 1: if you wait that fifty percent you could you could

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Speaker 1: possibly get to this number. But if you just look

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Speaker 1: at this year's data, like even yards per play, you know,

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Speaker 1: the Jets are like an average team and the Chargers

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Speaker 1: are slightly below average team.

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Speaker 2: So Monday Night favor the Jets.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you said priors. Are we talking coming into the

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Speaker 3: season or just the early half of the season, because

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Speaker 3: I think for some teams it's been really wacky. We'll

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Speaker 3: get to the Bengals eventually, But like, I don't know

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Speaker 3: how you weigh like what the Bengals have done this

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Speaker 3: season versus last week versus healthy Burrow, and the Jets

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Speaker 3: are kind of in the same boat. Like they faced

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Speaker 3: one of the toughest schedules in the league to date.

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Speaker 3: Right they've seen elite defenses in Dallas, they faced the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs awesome defense, and they've kind of showed well even

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Speaker 3: against the Eagles. Is this a case where maybe the

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Speaker 3: Jets are stepping down in class a little bit and

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Speaker 3: there's a chance Zach Wilson, I don't know, has some success.

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Speaker 1: And certainly looks like the locker room doesn't hate him anymore.

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Speaker 1: To answer your question, the when I say priors the

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Speaker 1: expectation of where a team is, and a lot of people,

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Speaker 1: you know, some people disagree with me and say, wait

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Speaker 1: a minute. You know I was passing out Halloween candy.

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Speaker 1: We're deep into the season, you know, all I care

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Speaker 1: about is what I saw this year. But the truth is,

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Speaker 1: it really is not a big enough sample size. The

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Speaker 1: team's played eight games, and it's not enough to know

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Speaker 1: who's really good and who isn't good.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: The extreme example is probably baseball, where all the time

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Speaker 1: you see situations like the Pittsburgh Pirates, you know, have

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Speaker 1: the division lead early in May, and it's just not

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Speaker 1: enough games. Now, football, the games are more meaningful than baseball.

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Speaker 2: But I would say is a good rule of thumb

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Speaker 2: this time.

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Speaker 1: Of year, maybe one third should be your expectation based

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Speaker 1: upon coming into the season, how good do I think

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Speaker 1: a team should be?

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Speaker 2: And two thirds the actual data.

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Speaker 1: Now, having said all that, when Kirk Cousins goes down

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Speaker 1: for the Vikings, well, you know, throw all the priors

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Speaker 1: into the garbage can. It doesn't matter anymore because you

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Speaker 1: know it's such a dramatic, you know, downgraded quarterback.

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Speaker 3: Now we know all the info and zone versus man

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Speaker 3: for Zach Wilson, all that stuff's baked into the line.

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Speaker 3: But I'll just say, Steve, one thing I had missed.

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Speaker 3: I was on the Cowboys against the Chargers on that

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Speaker 3: Monday night game. One thing I had missed was the

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Speaker 3: value of Corey Linsley and how much they missed him

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Speaker 3: in the middle. The backup, the kid named Clap. He

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Speaker 3: got destroyed against Allan. It's like I'm talking, he could

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Speaker 3: do nothing. They got no They had no run game.

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Speaker 3: And Lindsley was out again last week and I was

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Speaker 3: on the Chargers against the Bears. The Bears don't have

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Speaker 3: that interioror defensive push. Now you're back against Quinn and

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Speaker 3: Williams of the Jets, who he can wreck a game.

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Speaker 3: I just wonder, are we undervaluing the loss of, for instance,

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Speaker 3: of Corey Linsley at center.

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Speaker 1: You know, a great question, and I'm not gonna fake

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Speaker 1: it with you, Jason. I'll be honest. I am not

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Speaker 1: a position guy, a one guy. I'll have I've got

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Speaker 1: my data with how much is a backup quarterback versus

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Speaker 1: the starting quarterback. But I'm the wrong man for you

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Speaker 1: in terms of individual players and their impact. I'm the

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Speaker 1: guy that says it's all overrated as far as injuries

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Speaker 1: like quarterbacks matter. The even like a Justin Jefferson for instance,

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Speaker 1: is worth like a point in a quarter to the

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Speaker 1: point spread, and it's very rare.

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Speaker 2: You get, you get like a Donald you get, you get.

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Speaker 1: Some players can be worth just over one point to

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Speaker 1: the to the overall point spread. Most running backs aren't

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Speaker 1: worth anything, and so so I try not to overreact

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Speaker 1: to injuries other than cluster injuries, and those certainly can

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Speaker 1: impact a team. And you know, this year, more than

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Speaker 1: any year, the quarterback injuries have been what you had

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Speaker 1: to really pay attention to. And it's very difficult to

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Speaker 1: invest in teams. Well, we don't even know it's going

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Speaker 1: to start a quarterback for some of these teams, much less,

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Speaker 1: you know, try to evaluate like an interior lineman and

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Speaker 1: the like.

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Speaker 3: That's fair. Let's go quickly to this Seahawks Ravens game.

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Speaker 3: I don't know. I'm a little surprised the line is six.

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Speaker 3: I know an easy way is oh well, wait a minute.

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Speaker 3: Was it Baltimore favored by like three against the Lions

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Speaker 3: just a couple of weeks ago and the same Lions

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Speaker 3: team that lost at home to Seattle and line six?

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Speaker 3: And I don't know, Steve talk me through this, like,

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Speaker 3: is this just a bad matchup for Gino Smith? Is

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Speaker 3: it Baltimore team peaking and you're paying attacks for having

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Speaker 3: to take get Baltimore at the top of the market

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Speaker 3: where some people have them as the number one team

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Speaker 3: in the NFL. I don't. I mean, we saw this

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Speaker 3: is Baltimore team we saw at home lose to Gardner

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Speaker 3: Minshew in overtime. Again, they should have won, but they

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Speaker 3: certainly were not covering that game at any point. I

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Speaker 3: don't know. Are you as high on the Ravens as

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Speaker 3: the market?

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Speaker 1: I love where you're going here for the comp the

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Speaker 1: whole idea of it's like we're going to buy a

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Speaker 1: new home, right and let's see how much it should cost. Well, Baltimore,

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Speaker 1: if you wanted to bet on Baltimore, you could have

392
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Speaker 1: laid three against a very good Detroit team that's, you know,

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Speaker 1: better than Seattle, but just by a little bit, not

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Speaker 1: by more than like a point and a half. And

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Speaker 1: now you're laying six, and that doesn't sound like a

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Speaker 1: big difference, But those numbers are so those are three, four,

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Speaker 1: six or such key numbers. So the Baltimore at tax

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Speaker 1: has hit here this week. I have power ratings. I

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Speaker 1: have Baltimore tied for third, five points better than an

400
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Speaker 1: average team.

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Speaker 3: Who are your top who are your top two? And

402
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:47,520
Speaker 3: who are they tied with? If you don't mind me

403
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:48,680
Speaker 3: as Kansas.

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00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,960
Speaker 1: City six, Philly five and a half, and Baltimore and

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Speaker 1: Miami five are fives and Dallas is a four and

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Speaker 1: a half.

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Speaker 2: Bengals in Buffalo and Detroit are three and a half.

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Speaker 2: So I want to comment on this.

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Speaker 1: It is the year of parody in college football and

410
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Speaker 1: the NFL. I've never seen a year and a much

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Speaker 1: more an NFL expert than a college football expert. But

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Speaker 1: there are so many teams that can win the national

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Speaker 1: championship in college and in the NFL. There's so many

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Speaker 1: teams that could win the Super Bowl. It would not

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Speaker 1: be unusual this time of year. I might have a

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Speaker 1: team rated eight points better and the second place team

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Speaker 1: seven and the third place team five, and there would

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Speaker 1: already be a clear division in terms of what the

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Speaker 1: top tier teams were now we were there at week five.

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Speaker 1: I had San Francisco at that point nine points better

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Speaker 1: than an average team.

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Speaker 2: And the Wheels have just come off with.

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Speaker 1: The injuries and with subpark quarterback play the last few games.

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Speaker 1: But this thing is wide open, very difficult to project

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Speaker 1: who's going to actually win. Like Baltimore is a great

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Speaker 1: regular season game, do we trust them to win playoff games?

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Speaker 2: I don't.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a great point. Lamar Jackson has struggled I

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Speaker 3: think one and three in the postseason, So I don't know.

430
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:59,280
Speaker 3: Do you have anything on Raven Seattle like you would agree? Though?

431
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 3: If you're back Baltimore here, you're buying at the top

432
00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,160
Speaker 3: of the market, which usually is not a great move.

433
00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:06,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I'm going to give a recommendation as far

434
00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:09,080
Speaker 1: as a method. Let me emphasize it's difficult to win

435
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,360
Speaker 1: in sports betting, but I can tell you how you're

436
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 1: not going to win if you take a look at

437
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,439
Speaker 1: what the line is early in the week, and the

438
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:18,680
Speaker 1: line in this game was four and a half and

439
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:22,119
Speaker 1: you see a dramatic move to a key number or

440
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 1: through a key number, and so this line moved to

441
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,359
Speaker 1: the key number of six. So you're now you're paying

442
00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 1: an extra point and a half in point spread tax

443
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:32,360
Speaker 1: and you're not going to win being the last person

444
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 1: to bet on Baltimore. If you would have laid four

445
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:37,200
Speaker 1: and a half, I could you could make a case

446
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 1: for it, absolutely and a team that's peaking, But now

447
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 1: the tax is just too high. So doesn't mean you

448
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 1: bet Seattle. You cannot bet Baltimore and have a good wager.

449
00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:49,160
Speaker 1: In my opinion, you lean to Seattle at six, and

450
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:52,040
Speaker 1: we're starting to get interested in the Seahawks, a team

451
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 1: that frankly, my only concern is if you watch that

452
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,679
Speaker 1: game against Cleveland that was somewhat of a phony final.

453
00:21:57,920 --> 00:21:59,880
Speaker 2: The Cleveland Seattle game.

454
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 1: Was evenly in Cleveland easily could have won that game.

455
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 3: Do you think we see a six and a half

456
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 3: here or no?

457
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 1: Probably because the public, you know, it's gonna look at

458
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 1: Baltimore and how dominant that performance was against Detroit, and

459
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,679
Speaker 1: they're also you know, it's interesting if Jason, did you

460
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:20,160
Speaker 1: catch the final two minutes of the Arizona Baltimore game.

461
00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:23,400
Speaker 3: I was at the Chargers Bears, but I have seen

462
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 3: what went down. I mean, it's comical. The Ravens had

463
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,879
Speaker 3: that game in the bag and I don't know how

464
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,920
Speaker 3: Nel How's Nelson agalare on the handsteat like, I can't

465
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 3: catch all that's been in the case for years.

466
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 1: So my my friend Gil Alexander does a great job

467
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 1: hosting his show and he he calls it Plinko. That's

468
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,359
Speaker 1: that big Plinko game and prices right, it's a.

469
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 2: Big hotey.

470
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 1: And then it falls into a bucket at the end,

471
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 1: and the bucket is whether you cover or you don't cover.

472
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:56,159
Speaker 1: So Baltimore is up by you know, they're styling, and

473
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 1: they're up seventeen. They're going to cover, and then somehow

474
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 1: Arizona comes back and they go for two because the

475
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 1: analytics are correct to say go for two down eleven,

476
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 1: and they cut it to nine. So now they're going

477
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 1: to cover, but no, Baltimore comes back and gets a

478
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,880
Speaker 1: touchdown and they're going to cover, and then somehow Arizona

479
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 1: scores a touchdown to knock it down to ten, and

480
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 1: it comes down to the two point conversion and that

481
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,720
Speaker 1: will decide the nine point spread and they get it,

482
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 1: but there's a penalty, so they have to run it

483
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: again and they don't get it, so.

484
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:24,680
Speaker 2: Baltimore will cover, but there's an on side kick.

485
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 1: You see where I'm going that about half of these

486
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 1: games literally come down to just random noise, and it's

487
00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 1: easy to say, well, it's all luck, but you know,

488
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 1: I'll talk about it. I like to talk about bets

489
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 1: I win, not lose. Yeah, my summer, I bet Baltimore

490
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 1: Game of the Year in that game minus six. See,

491
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 1: that's how pros win each and every year in their

492
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,360
Speaker 1: own bets, because they have bets that are too good

493
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 1: to be true that you never could believe actually exist

494
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 1: and didn't have to sweat any of that if you

495
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 1: had Baltimore min a six.

496
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 3: So, for instance, in the contest where you're twenty nine

497
00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 3: to eleven, did you have Baltimore or Arizona last?

498
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 1: It's a great question. So I'm in two contests. I

499
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 1: leaned to Baltimore in the game. And then the Circa

500
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:08,919
Speaker 1: the point spread I believe was nine, and I know

501
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,919
Speaker 1: nine is the deadest of all numbers. Could have been

502
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 1: nine and a half. And in the west Gate it

503
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,680
Speaker 1: was eight and a half. So I did have Baltimore

504
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 1: in the Westgate contest and lost with minus eight and

505
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 1: a half. But because the line was nine and a

506
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: half in circa, I said, you know, it's so unlike

507
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 1: it lands nine, but why tempt fate. It's still going

508
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 1: to land on any one number, like one point three

509
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 1: percent of the time.

510
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 2: So it was I lucked out.

511
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:31,400
Speaker 1: If it had been eight and a half, it might

512
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,360
Speaker 1: have been on my Circa card, but it wasn't.

513
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 2: So I went four and one. Last week.

514
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 1: You know, I'm embarrassed to say I had a bad loss.

515
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 1: I was on the forty nine Ers minus three and

516
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 1: a half when I submitted that line was four and

517
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 1: a half, and I was like, well, you know, the

518
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 1: Niners had been six earlier in the week.

519
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 2: Now my quarterback's going to play, he's out of concussion protocol.

520
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:52,880
Speaker 1: I thought it was going to get good line value,

521
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,159
Speaker 1: and then with dread, I watched the game and the

522
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 1: Bengals just completely dominated.

523
00:24:56,800 --> 00:25:00,000
Speaker 2: I mean, they were completely the right side in that game.

524
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 3: It's frustrating when you put in a contest play and

525
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 3: then you realize in the first quarter I'm on the

526
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:08,919
Speaker 3: wrong side. I had Steelers, Jags and I don't know

527
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 3: why I can't quit the Steelers, Steve, and it's just

528
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 3: it's super frustrating. They kill me. But let me move

529
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,160
Speaker 3: on to another game that I find super interesting. So

530
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 3: the Saints are laying kind of a big number at home.

531
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 3: I'm seeing it's up to nine. I haven't seen if

532
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,920
Speaker 3: the contest line is out yet and what they're at.

533
00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,199
Speaker 3: But the Saints are at home against Tea Bag the

534
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 3: Batman and Chicago back to back road games. Saints looked

535
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 3: sharp last week destroying the Colts. Incomes a Bears team

536
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 3: that's really going nowhere. The quarterback looked extremely limited against

537
00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 3: the Chargers, and now he's got to face a better defense.

538
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 3: If you're of the belief that Lattimore can do some

539
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 3: damage and erase DJ Moore, Like, I don't know where

540
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 3: the Bears move the football, Like they're not gonna be

541
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 3: able to run on the Saints. Nobody really has the

542
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:53,199
Speaker 3: last couple of weeks. But is this a game you

543
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 3: can play at at eight or nine?

544
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 2: Probably not.

545
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 1: It's a game you can invest in if you're familiar

546
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 1: with teaser betting, of course, where you get the extra

547
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 1: you give up the extra six you get six points.

548
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 2: But you have to win two games. And you know

549
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 2: there's a book.

550
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:08,639
Speaker 1: I'm actually friends with Stanford Wong, So he wrote a

551
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 1: book Sharp Sports Betting, and there's an entire chapter in

552
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 1: that book. It was and it came out like in

553
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 1: two thousand on how to win betting NFL teasers And

554
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 1: this is the poster child of a game you want

555
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 1: to play because you can see the Bears hanging around,

556
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:24,879
Speaker 1: but they're very unlikely to win the lines eight and

557
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 1: a half. In most places, you can tease them down

558
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,120
Speaker 1: from eight and a half to two and a half.

559
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: So the Saints are an excellent teaser leg along with

560
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,160
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns. In terms of a candidate, I don't

561
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 1: want to lay eight. I don't want lay eight and

562
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 1: a half, but I'll certainly lay two or two and

563
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 1: a half in those games in teasers, provided you have

564
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 1: a sports book that has six point teasers.

565
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:43,679
Speaker 2: Mius one twenty.

566
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 1: In Vegas, we're donezo with teasers. Southern Nevada wants no

567
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 1: more part of NFL teasers. Every single book charges more

568
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 1: now than minus one twenty. You cannot play them.

569
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 3: I know it's one twenty off shore? What is it

570
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:56,159
Speaker 3: in Vegas?

571
00:26:56,160 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 1: One thirty anywhere from MIAs one twenty five to MIAs one.

572
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 1: And these Hall of Fame bookmakers don't want any more

573
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:04,879
Speaker 1: part of any teasers.

574
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,120
Speaker 2: They still don't want anyone to win.

575
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,199
Speaker 3: Two weeks ago was a monster teaser weekend, and we

576
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 3: warned people last week it could be dangerous, and there was,

577
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 3: of course a couple upsets. So that's interesting. You gave

578
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,679
Speaker 3: two favorites at home. I like those Browns and Saints,

579
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 3: no doubt about it. But there is there an underdog

580
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 3: that you would toss in the mix to push them

581
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 3: up from say two and a half to maybe eight

582
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 3: and a half.

583
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 1: Sure, so I think the Miami Dolphins plus two to

584
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:31,200
Speaker 1: plus eight is a good teaser.

585
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 2: I get it.

586
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 1: The Dolphins have played two games against contending teams and

587
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 1: they got murdered by Buffalo and Miami. And it's a

588
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 1: valid point. But I can't get past the point. Maybe

589
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 1: I'm biased. Remember how bad Buffalo played against Jacksonville in London,

590
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 1: going out there late in a bad travel spot. So

591
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 1: now Casey goes to Denver, they go to altitude, they

592
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,679
Speaker 1: come back to Kansas City. I haven't looked at the

593
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 1: at the world map lately, but I did play risk

594
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:00,440
Speaker 1: as a kid, and Germany's a long way away Kansas

595
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 1: City and now flying out on Thursday, Miami's been there longer.

596
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:05,880
Speaker 2: Advantage Miami.

597
00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 1: And also, if any team can get me in the

598
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 1: back door, if Miami's down ten or fourteen points, I'm

599
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: going to count on them to go ahead and get

600
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,719
Speaker 1: me a score to cover the teaser. I don't want

601
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 1: to bet Miami plus two because what does Patrick Malmes

602
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 1: do win close games for Kansas City? But teaser looks

603
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 1: good to me. Miami plus two to plus eight.

604
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:28,760
Speaker 3: Football is back. No more preseason games. The regular season

605
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 3: is here. While we all love watching our favorite teams

606
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 3: on television, there is nothing better than being in a

607
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 3: game live and in person. And the best way to

608
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 3: get tickets to any of these games is on game Time,

609
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 3: the fastest growing ticketing app in the US. For last minute,

610
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 3: amazing deals on tickets to see your favorite football teams.

611
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 3: This September, download game Time. And it's not just football.

612
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 3: Game Time has tickets to baseball games, concerts, and comedy

613
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 3: shows across the country. Download the game Time app and

614
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 3: redeem code Jmack for two twenty dollars off your first purchase.

615
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 3: Terms apply again. Download the game Time app and enter

616
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 3: code Jmack. That's Jmac for twenty dollars off no matter

617
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 3: where you live, get out and have some fun this week.

618
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 3: Download game Time Today, last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed.

619
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,719
Speaker 3: Another team that's killed me all season in the contest

620
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 3: is the Green Bay Packers. It just it's I cannot

621
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 3: believe that I've lost. I think I'm zero to three

622
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 3: backing the Packers this year, the worst first half team

623
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 3: in the league. Now they appear to be facing Brett

624
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 3: rippon the backup for Stafford. The Packers laying a field

625
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 3: goal at home. Is this something you would consider in

626
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 3: the contest?

627
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 1: Gosh, you know, it's like Charlie Brown with Lucy holding

628
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 1: the football and you want to keep betting on the

629
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 1: Packers and she keeps yanking the ball away and surely

630
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 1: they're going to find a way to score off the

631
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 1: bye week in the first half, and they just Jordan

632
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 1: Love is not the answer, and that's becoming very clear.

633
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 2: But I don't want I don't want the.

634
00:29:54,480 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 1: Rams, fragile team that has superstars but no depth, and

635
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 1: now they're traveling from La you know, to I'm sure

636
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 1: it's not going to be very I mean, it's not

637
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 1: going to snow. The weather's actually pretty good, but I

638
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 1: still yeah, I think I think that one of the

639
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 1: things that's not so much that you go to into

640
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 1: frigid cold when you're in your first game of the

641
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 1: year and Miami, this happened in Philly when's in its fifties.

642
00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 1: It throws everything off a little bit. I'll lean to

643
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 1: Green Bay minus three, but I'm not getting involved.

644
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 3: Can you talk a little bit, Steve about the You know,

645
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 3: obviously the pros bet numbers, they don't bet teams. So

646
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 3: two and a half was the number on Panthers Colts.

647
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 3: And you can look on certain apps where if you

648
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 3: plug in the sharp books I'm assuming you you know

649
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 3: which are the Sharper books, it looks like this is

650
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 3: headed from two and a half to two for the Panthers.

651
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 3: Would you say this is a potential contest play or

652
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 3: a buye for you in maybe even a teaser Carolina Panthers.

653
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, so Carolina is a good teaser. I like the

654
00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 1: fact that it's a Reich revenge game.

655
00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 2: It's funny. Last week I bet on Carolina. That was

656
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 2: my big wager.

657
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 1: And by the way, I lose plenty of big wagers

658
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 1: as well, but I like talking about winners more because

659
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 1: winless team off of bye great spot for Carolina. I'm like,

660
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 1: after this game, it's like Jeff Spiccoli and Fast Times

661
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 1: at Ridgemont High On.

662
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 2: Once I passed.

663
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:18,400
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers, I'm just gonna stay away from that side

664
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 1: of the building the rest of my time in high school.

665
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 2: Well, it looks like I got to go back.

666
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 1: To mister Han's class here and invest in New Orleans

667
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 1: again because I like the fact, and invest in Carolina

668
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 1: because Reich has revenge against Indy and who is Indy?

669
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 1: If there's one theme I've seen this year, who are

670
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 1: these mediocre bad teams to be laying field goals against?

671
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 1: You know, the worst teams in the NFL.

672
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 2: Nobody's really that bad, So got into my head.

673
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 1: I'd bet a Carolina two and a half, but you

674
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 1: really wanted the three, and that's what the pros bet.

675
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 1: They got the three, but if you missed the three,

676
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 1: the teaser absolutely up to eight and a half.

677
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 2: So good teaser week.

678
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 1: There's four different legs that I like, two favorites and

679
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 1: two dogs.

680
00:31:57,200 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, this Raiders Giants game obviously fire their head coach. Instantly,

681
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 3: I went to go bet the Raiders on the fire

682
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 3: the coach, bump, and then they could decide to go

683
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 3: to the backup quarterback. The new coach, Antonio Pierce or

684
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 3: the interim, is a former Giants player. I think the

685
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 3: Giants are trashed, and they have been all season. I

686
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 3: see one and a half is what the Raiders are favored.

687
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 3: But is it d Is it dangerous to back a

688
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 3: team here? Because I think the psychology will put even

689
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 3: the regular gamblers, not the big bunny guys, on the

690
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 3: Raiders here. I don't think anybody wants the Giants. Is

691
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 3: it risky to take the Raiders?

692
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 2: Yeah? Fascinating game. Of course, my local team the Raiders.

693
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 1: I'm not a fan, I don't care, but my son

694
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 1: did like going to an exhibition game. So your instincts

695
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 1: were spot on. You fire your coach any sport, I

696
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 1: don't care if it's hockey, baseball, you.

697
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 2: Want to bet on that team.

698
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: But here's a weird animal where you didn't just fire

699
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 1: the coach, You fire the GM and you fired the

700
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 1: quarterback right, so you cleaned outse.

701
00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 2: You told Jimmy g take some.

702
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 1: Time off O'Connell, who was mister August. He was phenomenal

703
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 1: in preseason. He was terrible against the Charges, just awful.

704
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 1: I know he's getting exact eight times.

705
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 3: Right in the second half, but yeah, yeah.

706
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 1: So I can't get there. For some reasons, the Raiders

707
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:18,959
Speaker 1: had the one of the worst home crowds in the NFL,

708
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 1: even though we like our team. It's a great destination city,

709
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 1: so whenever Pittsburgh or New York or anybody comes to

710
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 1: our city, they take over the stadium. So there's gonna

711
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 1: be more Giants fan than Raiders fans. So there won't

712
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 1: be a home crowd advantage, certainly in this game. And

713
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 1: I don't think O'Connell can play at all. Compared I

714
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 1: got g just Jimmy g just a little bit worse

715
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:41,240
Speaker 1: than an average quarterback, and I got Oconna like four

716
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 1: and a half points worse. So that's a four point swing.

717
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 1: And I like what the Giants did. I mean, the

718
00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 1: Giants are losing games but playing better. I mean, they

719
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 1: obviously should beat in the Jets, they should have beaten Buffalo.

720
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 1: Just a lot of reasons that I would want that.

721
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 1: I'd say the Giants are undervalued. I think the Giants

722
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 1: are going to win the game.

723
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 3: Oh no, damn. I was looking at Raiders in the contest.

724
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 3: This whole Kirk Cousins out Jaren Hall in. I don't

725
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:11,439
Speaker 3: think Josh Dobbs is going to get the start off

726
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 3: being with the team for like three days. Stranger things

727
00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:18,399
Speaker 3: have happened. Everybody was betting Atlanta early in the week.

728
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 3: It now looks like it's coming back a little toward

729
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 3: the Vikings. I don't know. We saw Atlanta look really

730
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 3: pedestrian last week against will Levis. They looked ill prepared,

731
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 3: right Steve. I mean, after maybe the first two bombs,

732
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,439
Speaker 3: you would think, okay, let's not give up another one,

733
00:34:36,680 --> 00:34:38,919
Speaker 3: and Will Levis just kept burning them. I don't think

734
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 3: Hall can do that this Grady jarreted injury. I know

735
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 3: you said you're not big on one offs, but he's

736
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 3: huge in the middle for them. They're they've been great

737
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 3: stopping the run. It'll be Taylor Heineke against I think

738
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 3: Jared Hall. Do the Falcons interest you it? Four?

739
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 2: No?

740
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 1: And by the way, this probably I differentiate me from

741
00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 1: like a whole bunch of other guests you're going to

742
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 1: have people are paid to be content providers, they're paid

743
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 1: to be entertaining.

744
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:04,319
Speaker 2: They're paid to.

745
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 1: Give out a strong opinion, say wow, I really like

746
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 1: the Falcons, I really like the Vikings.

747
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:11,280
Speaker 2: I'm boring the vast majority.

748
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:14,319
Speaker 1: If there's one takeaway people listening should have is the

749
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 1: lines are right. The lines on almost every game are correct.

750
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 1: And the way people make money, you know they make money,

751
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:22,280
Speaker 1: they make money with breaking news. All of a sudden,

752
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 1: word comes out that there's a quarterback changer, there's a

753
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 1: weather change, and they're getting to it. Before the line

754
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 1: was we'll talk about if we can the New England

755
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,920
Speaker 1: Patriots game next. Yes, regarding that, but here's a situation

756
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,800
Speaker 1: where I mean, I make the game. I have Atlanta

757
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 1: three points better, but I'm just guessing. I don't know

758
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 1: how good Haull is. I've got them as a third

759
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 1: string quarterback, so I've got it being a good six

760
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 1: point downgrade from Kirk Cousins. And given that there's no

761
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,479
Speaker 1: real value, I will say this, my gut says under

762
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,400
Speaker 1: because I think both teams are going to say themselves,

763
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 1: you know what, if we don't make any mistakes and

764
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 1: we take care of the ball, we can win this game.

765
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 3: So wait, so does that mean with Cousins, you would

766
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:00,640
Speaker 3: have had the Vikings favored by three on the road.

767
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:02,880
Speaker 1: I would have had a six point adjustment, so I

768
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 1: would have had the Vikings Mys two oh.

769
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:07,879
Speaker 3: Vices minus two? Right, okay, yeah, interesting, All right, let's

770
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 3: go to you said Patriots and Washington. I saw. I

771
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 3: don't know how much you care about these syndicates or whatever,

772
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 3: but I saw one of them gave out the Patriots

773
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:18,359
Speaker 3: at two and a half on I think Monday, to

774
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:21,359
Speaker 3: get ahead of the Washington trade news. And you know

775
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:25,320
Speaker 3: they seem to be right. A line's currently Patriots three.

776
00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 3: This is the most key number in gambling. How do

777
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:29,000
Speaker 3: you handle this one?

778
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 2: Yeah?

779
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,000
Speaker 1: So, you know, pulling back the curtain. This is how

780
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 1: people make money betting the NFL. This one game, I

781
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 1: can explain it. Who do I like in this game?

782
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:39,400
Speaker 1: I don't like anybody. I leen Washington at plus three? Well,

783
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: what good am I?

784
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:40,760
Speaker 2: Well?

785
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 1: I mean I follow all these betting syndicates and these

786
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 1: and these different guys that a respect, including but not

787
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:51,560
Speaker 1: limited to Doctor Bob, Sports Right Angle, sports tailgate tents.

788
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 1: There's a lot of guys that move the market. So

789
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:57,959
Speaker 1: as soon as they give out the Patriots MYS two.

790
00:36:57,880 --> 00:36:58,280
Speaker 2: And a half.

791
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 1: I know it's probably gonna move, and my numbers made

792
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 1: it like the line like two point seventy five.

793
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:05,280
Speaker 2: Okay, So I invested.

794
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 1: I took the Patriots knowing it would go up, and

795
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 1: then it went up to three, and then another syndicate

796
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 1: released it and then went up to three and a half,

797
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:12,360
Speaker 1: which I thought was ludicrous.

798
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 2: And I'm like, I get it.

799
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:16,719
Speaker 1: Washington, you know, raised up the white flag, got rid

800
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 1: of a couple of malecontents on defense, they should be

801
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 1: a little bit worse. But who are the Patriots without

802
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 1: their number one receiver born and frankly, with no receivers,

803
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 1: Who the heck are the Patriots to be laying three

804
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 1: and a half. So the line goes up to three

805
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:30,520
Speaker 1: and a half, and then all of a sudden incomes

806
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 1: the sharp money on plus three and a half. And

807
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 1: You're like, well, I thought the Sharp's like the Patriots. No,

808
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 1: the Sharp's like the Patriots mis two and a half,

809
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 1: and the Sharp's like Washington plus three and a half

810
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 1: a lot.

811
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 2: How can that possibly be true?

812
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 1: Because Jason, if they play these games, this game one

813
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 1: hundred times, I'm gonna simplify this, forty five percent of

814
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:49,799
Speaker 1: the time, New England's going to kill them forty five

815
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 1: percent of the time, Washington's gonna cover all numbers, and

816
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 1: ten percent of the time New England's gonna win by

817
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 1: exactly three. So think about that. If you bet New

818
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 1: England mis two and a half, you're styling, you're winning

819
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 1: fifty five percent of the time. Your ROI is excellent

820
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 1: five percent. If you're betting Washington you're plus three and

821
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 1: a half. You're also styling and winning fifty five percent

822
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,360
Speaker 1: of the time. Now, if I had to make a

823
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:14,520
Speaker 1: decision on three, which I don't, I actually think Washington

824
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 1: probably would be the side I would look towards. But

825
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 1: you can see that this is a game where when

826
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 1: it lands three at the end, I'll say, if you

827
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 1: didn't win bet in this game, you're just not trying

828
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 1: hard enough. The pros who are working full time in

829
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 1: their pockets, they do have both teams. They've got New

830
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,279
Speaker 1: England last two and a half and Washington plus three

831
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 1: and a half.

832
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 2: Despite every other expert.

833
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 1: Coming on and telling you which side is the clear

834
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 1: cut right side. It's just the way that everyone I

835
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 1: know that lives on golf courses instead of doing podcasts

836
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:45,240
Speaker 1: from basements makes money betting sports.

837
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 3: I love that this whole Belichick versus rookie quarterbacks. I

838
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 3: know Howell is not technically a rookie. He's in year two,

839
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 3: but I think he started one game last year, so

840
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 3: he's in what the start number, like nine of his career.

841
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 3: They've faced the Patriots defense two or twice, Josh Allen,

842
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 3: Jimmy Garoppolo, who they lost to. Of course I had

843
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 3: the Patriots plus two in that game, the safety thanks

844
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 3: for Nothing, Mac Derek Carr, Dak Prescott, Zach Wilson, who

845
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 3: they beat, and then Jalen Hurts. It feels like a

846
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:18,240
Speaker 3: big step down for a Patriots defense to go against

847
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 3: Sam Howell. I don't know. I know that stuff doesn't factor.

848
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 3: You're into your equation, but like when you when you

849
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:26,759
Speaker 3: see it at three, do you take any of that

850
00:39:26,800 --> 00:39:29,120
Speaker 3: into account? Do you just betting the number irrelevantly?

851
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,279
Speaker 1: No, No, it's a great point because that's just the

852
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 1: starting point. So I make my number based on my

853
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:37,759
Speaker 1: power rating. Then you look at travel, you look at matchups,

854
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 1: you look at circumstances. Certainly, you know Belichick great against

855
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:43,400
Speaker 1: you know inexperienced quarterbacks. But let me ask you this,

856
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 1: who's the better coach right now? Andy Reid or Bill Belichick?

857
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,280
Speaker 3: Would you say, right now Andy Reid?

858
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 1: All right, Well, Andy Reid couldn't stop Sam Howe, and

859
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, bad example. If I if I, if I

860
00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:00,279
Speaker 1: look at the at Philadelphia's head coach, though, you would

861
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 1: absolutely say, you know, he's doing a fine job, and

862
00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 1: he couldn't stop how in both their games and they

863
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 1: gave up their Yeah.

864
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 3: No point divisional matchup. That's a good point, Sam Howell.

865
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 3: Ate him up now. Sam Howell steps out of vision

866
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:12,839
Speaker 3: against the Bears and he can't do a damn thing.

867
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 2: You know, it's funny.

868
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 1: The reason I sorry, I know Andy Reid doesn't coach

869
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 1: for Philadelphia. Where I'm going at is like even when

870
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 1: we ask who's the best coach in the NFL and

871
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 1: how much is he worth, I'd make a case that

872
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 1: none of them are worth more than like a point

873
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 1: a half. You know, there's like no clear cut great

874
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 1: NFL coach that I would favor over just an average coach.

875
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:35,400
Speaker 2: I don't know. I like Hardbob, but maybe that's just

876
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 2: because he cheats and he gets away with it.

877
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 3: Oh jeez, look at this shot. It busy all right, Steve,

878
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 3: we could wrap up with this one. So there were

879
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:44,760
Speaker 3: I think there were six or seven games Sunday including

880
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 3: Monday that were two and a half three this weekend,

881
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 3: and the Houston Texans fit that. This is a tough one,

882
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay coming off the extra rest, whatever you factor

883
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:58,480
Speaker 3: that into your handicap after the Buffalo win or Buffalo lost,

884
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 3: sorry but cover and now they go to Houston Texans

885
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:04,359
Speaker 3: back home. CJ. Stroud came back to earth a little bit,

886
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 3: and as you saw last week against Carolina, I had

887
00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 3: Carolina as well. I don't know, I irrationally like Houston

888
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 3: in this spot, and I don't irrationally ever like Houston

889
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 3: anything on this game.

890
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 2: You know.

891
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 1: It's one of those If there's one takeaway I would

892
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:24,280
Speaker 1: have is look at these odds services and have multiple

893
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:27,359
Speaker 1: outs because I'm just staring at the screen and I'm like,

894
00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 1: I lean a little bit to Houston. They're clearly the

895
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,440
Speaker 1: better team and their home, and I think it was

896
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 1: forgivable that Carolina was in a great spot last week

897
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 1: and Houston could have won. If you watched that game,

898
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,359
Speaker 1: that was a coin flip and you can still get

899
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 1: mis two and a half.

900
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:42,720
Speaker 2: So I look at the screen in Vegas.

901
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,480
Speaker 1: There's two books in Vegas, including the local south Point

902
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 1: by the way, Jason, they don't let me bet there,

903
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 1: but I hold no grudges and I recommend them to

904
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 1: all my friends to go ahead and play against the

905
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:54,879
Speaker 1: south Point. And so you can get a nice Mis

906
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:56,960
Speaker 1: two and half laid a dollar ten by example, I

907
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 1: think if you wait it out, if you like Tampa, you.

908
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:00,720
Speaker 2: Could probably get a three.

909
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 1: I know this is boring where I'm not giving you

910
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 1: definitive sides if I had to prefer it, though, I

911
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 1: do like the Houston Mis two and a half, and

912
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 1: that's certainly a potential play I'll have in the contest.

913
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 2: Yeah.

914
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 3: I had read someone, a Vegas guy, I think his

915
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 3: name is Fogel, wrote about the psychology of minus two

916
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 3: and a half and if the lines at two and

917
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:21,399
Speaker 3: a half, it means that or according to this guy,

918
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 3: that the sharp betters the big pros they don't like

919
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:27,120
Speaker 3: the favorite enough or it would be a three, and

920
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 3: maybe you lean away from teams taking a favorite at

921
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:34,279
Speaker 3: two and a half. I hope I didn't butcher what

922
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 3: he wrote or said.

923
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:37,960
Speaker 2: No, I think spot on, But that's a post.

924
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 1: So if the game's about to kick off and you

925
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 1: see a spread at two and a half, that means

926
00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 1: the pros don't like it enough. Throw that in the

927
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:47,480
Speaker 1: garbage can. Earlier in the betting cycle. We're still midweek,

928
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 1: and as an example, look at New England.

929
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:51,719
Speaker 2: How gimme give me, give me some.

930
00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:54,600
Speaker 1: Patriots mius two and a half against the Washington depleted team.

931
00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:54,879
Speaker 2: Right.

932
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 1: But the problem is, like you said, if the misus

933
00:42:57,760 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 1: two and a half really is a good wager, it's

934
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:02,400
Speaker 1: going to disappear before Sunday morning and you're not going

935
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 1: to be able to.

936
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 2: Get at it.

937
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 1: If it's still there sitting out there on Sunday morning,

938
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:07,960
Speaker 1: it's probably no good anymore.

939
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 2: I do want to talk about asymmetric risk.

940
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:12,320
Speaker 1: There are certain bets that you should never make early

941
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:14,239
Speaker 1: in the week, Like a plus two and a half

942
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:16,279
Speaker 1: is a good example. Never bet a plus two and

943
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:18,960
Speaker 1: a half unless the game's about to kick off. Hold out,

944
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:21,239
Speaker 1: because you know what the worst case scenario, it goes

945
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 1: down to two or plus one and a half.

946
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:25,840
Speaker 2: It's almost the same thing. Games don't land on two very.

947
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 1: Often, but it's a disaster if you bet a plus

948
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:30,279
Speaker 1: two and a half and then you wake up on

949
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 1: Sunday morning, gope and you see plus three, and it's

950
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 1: happened to all of us. Same thing applies to like

951
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:37,319
Speaker 1: betting a plus nine and a half. How silly do

952
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 1: you feel bet a plus and nine and a half

953
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,319
Speaker 1: and then saying, oh, it's plus ten and they're kicking off.

954
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:42,400
Speaker 2: Well, it's funny.

955
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:45,480
Speaker 3: Last week, I my first bet was Chargers against the Bears,

956
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 3: and it was like nine and a half, and of

957
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 3: course it comes down to eight and I'm like, well, shit,

958
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 3: damn it, I got a terrible number. That was a

959
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 3: horrible job by me, and it was a rare no

960
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:56,760
Speaker 3: sweat cover. I mean, how much I don't know, Steve,

961
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:58,759
Speaker 3: how much can you say, well, you know what, maybe

962
00:43:58,800 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 3: I shouldn't be impacted by the line moving a point

963
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:03,720
Speaker 3: and point and a half. Closing line value, Sure, historically

964
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:06,719
Speaker 3: it has better, but it's I don't know, closing line

965
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 3: value the same as it was to you fifteen twenty

966
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 3: years ago.

967
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 2: Given market was more important.

968
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:14,280
Speaker 1: And you know, just off the top of my head,

969
00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 1: Cleveland Seattle just one game. If did you bet Cleveland

970
00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 1: Seattle last week, well then you won.

971
00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 2: How can I possibly say that?

972
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 1: Because if you early in the week, if you laid

973
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 1: three or three and a half with Seattle, you cashed

974
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 1: and if you saw, hey, you know, the public's on Seattle.

975
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 1: Some pros are on Seattle. Oh wait it out, write

976
00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:35,560
Speaker 1: a post. It's painted for and here come the four

977
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 1: and a halfs popping up. You know, and you could

978
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 1: have won with the dog plus four and a half.

979
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 3: You know.

980
00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 1: There's a Green Bay Atlanta game week one, and there's

981
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:47,400
Speaker 1: every year. There's numerous examples where Atlanta wins that game.

982
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:50,239
Speaker 2: I believe they won by one or two.

983
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 1: I think they won by two and it closed Atlantami

984
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 1: was two and a half and Atlanta was plus one.

985
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:57,640
Speaker 1: Early in the betting cycle, look, the first game of

986
00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 1: the year, the first game Philly plays men the line

987
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:02,799
Speaker 1: seven and a half. They bet it all the way

988
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:04,879
Speaker 1: down to six circa as a five and a half

989
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 1: fiddle in the middle. Kirk Cousins and company go in

990
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 1: the back door and they lose by six, and everyone

991
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:12,839
Speaker 1: everybody wins. Of course, everybody doesn't win, but everybody that's

992
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:15,919
Speaker 1: really dialed in and paying attention, and it's maniacal about

993
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 1: paying attention to all these spreads wins on and you're right,

994
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 1: it's only like one out of thirty games. But that

995
00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 1: makes the difference instead of going fifteen and fifteen, now

996
00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:28,840
Speaker 1: you're going sixteen and fourteen and suddenly you're making money.

997
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's weird. So we talked about a lot of games, Steve.

998
00:45:33,160 --> 00:45:37,200
Speaker 3: In the contest, for instance, I think I'm probably going

999
00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:39,759
Speaker 3: to do two stupid favorites over a touchdown. Now I

1000
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:43,040
Speaker 3: don't have the numbers historically, how of over a touchdown

1001
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 3: favors done? But Browns and Saints in the contest. One

1002
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:49,799
Speaker 3: idea I've been doing is give me who you think

1003
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:52,360
Speaker 3: are going to be the five most picked teams and

1004
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:54,440
Speaker 3: try to avoid those because obviously we know it's you know,

1005
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 3: five thousand people in the contest, a lot of dead money,

1006
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:59,879
Speaker 3: dumb money is probably going to gravitate toward the five

1007
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 3: automatic of the most picked teams, if you wouldn't mind,

1008
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 3: I'm curious who you think the five most picked will

1009
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:07,360
Speaker 3: be this week.

1010
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 1: Okay, you might not like my answer because I can't

1011
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 1: answer it yet. Because this whole CLV closing line value

1012
00:46:13,600 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 1: has become so important to people. And remember everyone in

1013
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 1: this contest and poning up a thousand dollars, so they're

1014
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:23,279
Speaker 1: serious betters, and they want line closing line value, So

1015
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 1: there will be injury reports, practice reports that will come out,

1016
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 1: and you will see line moves.

1017
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 2: And if the look at the Bills Bengals.

1018
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 1: If the Bengals closed minus three, then the Bengals are

1019
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 1: going to be one of the top five picks easily.

1020
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:40,840
Speaker 1: But if that line closes pick, then the Bills plus

1021
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 1: two will be one of.

1022
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:42,920
Speaker 2: The biggest picks.

1023
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 1: So it's too early for me to go ahead and

1024
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:46,759
Speaker 1: predict who everyone is going to fire out.

1025
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 3: Hold On, you said all that, Steven, hold On, it

1026
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:52,000
Speaker 3: looks it looks like the lines. I just got the email,

1027
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 3: So Bengals are one and a half. So you think

1028
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 3: if the line is three comes Saturday, everybody's going to

1029
00:46:57,640 --> 00:46:58,320
Speaker 3: put in Bengals.

1030
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 1: Everyone is going to see the and and bet the

1031
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:03,919
Speaker 1: Bengals exactly right, And so they're going to shy away

1032
00:47:03,920 --> 00:47:05,799
Speaker 1: from the Bills because they're going to say, you know what,

1033
00:47:06,040 --> 00:47:07,560
Speaker 1: if I can bet the Bills plus two and a

1034
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:10,319
Speaker 1: half or even a plus three, if that happens, why

1035
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:13,840
Speaker 1: why why I'm basically betting on them with my contest selection.

1036
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:17,840
Speaker 1: Why bet on them with a bad number? So I

1037
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 1: will say that the most it's rare that any spread

1038
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:24,400
Speaker 1: above seven becomes the number one pick in a contest

1039
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:27,399
Speaker 1: without closing line value. People like to play games were

1040
00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:30,040
Speaker 1: more just pick the winner and you're gonna wind up,

1041
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 1: you know, with that team pulling back the curtain one

1042
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:33,759
Speaker 1: more time.

1043
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:35,880
Speaker 2: A lot of people have proxies in the contest.

1044
00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 1: I'm giving away too much here, but proxy. Yeah, yeah,

1045
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:41,760
Speaker 1: So so you've got a deadline. I'm assuming that maybe

1046
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:43,799
Speaker 1: Friday two pm is your deadline.

1047
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 3: To get to Saturday, Saturday one pm Pacific.

1048
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:51,240
Speaker 1: Okay, so you've got you've got a proxy that's tremendous. Yes,

1049
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:54,080
Speaker 1: and your proxy is letting you submit maybe your friends

1050
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:56,279
Speaker 1: and family, you know. But but I can tell you,

1051
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 1: like I'm friends like with Foxy Roxy, who's like one

1052
00:47:58,520 --> 00:48:01,920
Speaker 1: of the proxies, Foxy Roxy, and she's putting in on

1053
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 1: Friday at the sir one of the Circus Sports satellite

1054
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:07,680
Speaker 1: locations at the Tuscany. She's got like a stack of

1055
00:48:07,719 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 1: cards that are like three two thousand deep, and she's

1056
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:13,239
Speaker 1: like going and putting in all the Survivor and billions.

1057
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:15,680
Speaker 1: She's no Vegas Maddie, that's for sure. That's the guy

1058
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 1: I use.

1059
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:16,399
Speaker 3: He's great.

1060
00:48:16,600 --> 00:48:19,839
Speaker 1: Yes, But what happens now is that Let's say there's

1061
00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:23,160
Speaker 1: a line move on Thursday night Friday morning, Well, a

1062
00:48:23,160 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 1: lot of her people are going to be playing that

1063
00:48:25,640 --> 00:48:28,640
Speaker 1: line move. But once they've submitted all those plays on

1064
00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 1: Friday afternoon, say something dramatic happens Friday night Saturday at noon,

1065
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 1: and now all this other money has already been entered.

1066
00:48:36,960 --> 00:48:40,480
Speaker 1: So I love investing in a contest on a late

1067
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:43,839
Speaker 1: breaking news situation knowing you're right.

1068
00:48:43,840 --> 00:48:45,320
Speaker 2: I got to be five thousand other people.

1069
00:48:45,360 --> 00:48:47,120
Speaker 1: So I don't want to make the same plays everyone

1070
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 1: else is making, But I love getting closing line value

1071
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:51,920
Speaker 1: that everyone else who's submitted early isn't going to get.

1072
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:54,520
Speaker 1: And certainly anyone they used the Thursday game has to

1073
00:48:54,520 --> 00:48:56,240
Speaker 1: submit all their plays by today.

1074
00:48:56,880 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 3: I'll do I'll do my best. Guess I think Chiefs

1075
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:00,799
Speaker 3: at one and a half will de only be top five, right?

1076
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:01,640
Speaker 3: Would you agree?

1077
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:07,200
Speaker 2: Yes? I will. The narrative Mahomes wins all the close games.

1078
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:11,000
Speaker 3: I think probably Rams. No, No, not Rams. I'm with

1079
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 3: the backup quarterback. I'm sorry. Patriots minus three.

1080
00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:17,879
Speaker 2: You know, I'm not sure about that.

1081
00:49:17,960 --> 00:49:19,960
Speaker 1: I don't think I don't think they would trust the Patriots,

1082
00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 1: you know, Green Bay minus three could well as soon

1083
00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 1: as Stafford gets reported out. The Packers will be a

1084
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:27,359
Speaker 1: top five for certain.

1085
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:30,840
Speaker 3: Eagles are Cowboys. That's probably gonna be too split. Or

1086
00:49:30,880 --> 00:49:34,160
Speaker 3: maybe both will be in the top five, which is rare,

1087
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 3: but now.

1088
00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:37,759
Speaker 1: Here's one that it is because I hate it when

1089
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:40,840
Speaker 1: people talk about line moves, but they've already occurred, So

1090
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 1: I will I will make a bold prediction. Right now,

1091
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:45,319
Speaker 1: you can get Dallas plus three at reduced veig I

1092
00:49:45,320 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 1: don't understand this line. The Eagles are just a smidge

1093
00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:51,959
Speaker 1: better than Dallas. Home field's worth maximum point and a half,

1094
00:49:51,960 --> 00:49:54,400
Speaker 1: And I might be kind, I think this line should.

1095
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:55,520
Speaker 2: Be two and a half and you're getting three.

1096
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:58,400
Speaker 1: So the Cowboys would indeed be a best bet and

1097
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:00,200
Speaker 1: a good investment in my opinion.

1098
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:02,400
Speaker 3: At plus three, okay, and then Bengals we know is

1099
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:04,840
Speaker 3: going to be in at one and a half, and

1100
00:50:04,880 --> 00:50:06,880
Speaker 3: then probably Jets at three and a half, right.

1101
00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 2: I would you know?

1102
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:11,640
Speaker 1: I would think so except for the you know, this

1103
00:50:11,840 --> 00:50:15,479
Speaker 1: market support for the Chargers has shocked me. I can't

1104
00:50:15,520 --> 00:50:17,759
Speaker 1: believe that this line has gone to three and a

1105
00:50:17,760 --> 00:50:20,839
Speaker 1: half and stayed there. Like I said, my numbers overwhelmingly

1106
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 1: support the Jets. So my two best bets would be

1107
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:26,239
Speaker 1: two dogs. I take the Jets three and a half

1108
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:27,520
Speaker 1: and Dallas plus three.

1109
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:30,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, what do you make, Steve of the Dallas Cowboys.

1110
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:33,560
Speaker 3: I think I'm almost certain they took heavy money before

1111
00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:35,560
Speaker 3: the forty nine Ers game, and all that big money

1112
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 3: got their ass kicked. And then Dallas took a lot

1113
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:41,920
Speaker 3: of money last week. He gets the Rams and they delivered.

1114
00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 3: It feels like I think, I think you're right. Plus

1115
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 3: three probably is going to be a lot of cowboy

1116
00:50:49,600 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 3: money in the contest and in the books.

1117
00:50:52,600 --> 00:50:53,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, So think about this.

1118
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:57,200
Speaker 1: The Niners were styling undefeated, playing better than anybody in

1119
00:50:57,239 --> 00:51:00,239
Speaker 1: the NFL, and they were laying three to Dallas. Now

1120
00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:02,960
Speaker 1: we got the Eagles. We got Hurts who barely ran

1121
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:06,680
Speaker 1: last week ycause he had a brace on his knee

1122
00:51:06,760 --> 00:51:10,759
Speaker 1: the week before and he didn't have any usage. And

1123
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:13,080
Speaker 1: the Eagles aren't playing nearly as well as the Niners

1124
00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:14,840
Speaker 1: were playing early this year. But yet this line is

1125
00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:17,319
Speaker 1: the same as what it was when Dallas was at

1126
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:21,480
Speaker 1: San Francisco. Like I said, usually I would say three

1127
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 1: quarters of the time when they make a line move

1128
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:25,560
Speaker 1: prediction like this, I'll be correct. And if you do

1129
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:27,640
Speaker 1: want to bet Dallas, I would grab the plus three

1130
00:51:27,719 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 1: right now.

1131
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:32,560
Speaker 3: Okay, he is Steve Fezick. Steve, you handout picks or

1132
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:34,640
Speaker 3: people can pay for him. Where can they find your

1133
00:51:35,239 --> 00:51:35,840
Speaker 3: your site?

1134
00:51:36,480 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 1: So I only sell picks at one place. I don't

1135
00:51:39,239 --> 00:51:41,800
Speaker 1: have my own site. I'm too busy pregame dot com.

1136
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:44,840
Speaker 1: If anyone's asking for your money and it's not associated

1137
00:51:44,840 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 1: with pregame dot com, that's not me. That's someone pretending

1138
00:51:47,200 --> 00:51:49,840
Speaker 1: to be me and Twitter at phasick sports.

1139
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:53,480
Speaker 3: Good stuff, Steve, and keep up the good work. Tied

1140
00:51:53,560 --> 00:51:55,759
Speaker 3: for fifth, I am not tied for fifth. I had

1141
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:57,000
Speaker 3: a five and oh a couple of weeks ago, but

1142
00:51:57,040 --> 00:51:59,480
Speaker 3: it's been a rough go. Good luck the rest of

1143
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:00,000
Speaker 3: the way, buddy.

1144
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:02,800
Speaker 1: If I could add one more thing, anyone who thinks

1145
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:06,600
Speaker 1: about like a sports betting people are skeptical and they like, oh,

1146
00:52:06,680 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 1: people can't win gambling. Anyone who adamantly feels that way,

1147
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:11,800
Speaker 1: I have a dinner bet with you. Come to Vegas,

1148
00:52:12,040 --> 00:52:13,960
Speaker 1: and I will get you backed off from a sports

1149
00:52:13,960 --> 00:52:16,719
Speaker 1: book of my choice within thirty minutes, where they'll tell you,

1150
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, we can't accept these wagers anymore.