Speaker 1: What's up, guys?
Speaker 2: How are you welcome to a Tuesday morning episode of
Speaker 2: the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Peralti. You guys
Speaker 2: can follow me across all of my socials at Sports
Speaker 2: Talk Matt, and we come to you after a winning day,
Speaker 2: a two in one day, so back to back winning
Speaker 2: days for us. Unfortunately, Jared Young again the prop that
Speaker 2: had been my trend that I had gone five and one,
Speaker 2: the only one was on the Daily Juice. It's now
Speaker 2: five and two because the two times I've used it
Speaker 2: it's gone down. I'm gonna do it one more time
Speaker 2: on The Juice today. If it doesn't come in, I
Speaker 2: won't do it anymore. I'm just do it personally because
Speaker 2: maybe there's a jinx going on. But PCA is your
Speaker 2: MVP of the National League. What he did last night
Speaker 2: was unbelievable. I'll get to that later on today on
Speaker 2: pushing the odds as to what this kid has accomplished
Speaker 2: so far for the Cubs. But the Phillies and the Dodgers,
Speaker 2: we get that moneyline parlay to come in.
Speaker 1: Dodgers win big over the Rockies.
Speaker 2: Phillies get a good w Although there was some controversy
Speaker 2: around that game, but we get the w up A
Speaker 2: unit for us here on Monday to start the week
Speaker 2: off on our right foot. So for today, I am
Speaker 2: again going to use the home run best bet tool
Speaker 2: for one of the prop bets. Really actually for both
Speaker 2: prop bets, I'm using it, but there is a theory
Speaker 2: here in both plays I'm going to use from the
Speaker 2: prop bet cheat sheet. These are five star plays on
Speaker 2: the prop bet cheat sheet which are hitting at about
Speaker 2: forty seven percent on the year for us with the
Speaker 2: prop bet cheat sheet. So using the home run tool
Speaker 2: to then go and find player props that I like.
Speaker 2: This is sort of the way I am on covering things,
Speaker 2: and so far, so good, so we're going to.
Speaker 1: Keep on doing that.
Speaker 2: I got another baseball total to play here coming up
Speaker 2: for today as well, but you can go to bettingpros
Speaker 2: dot com slash homers and do your own research if
Speaker 2: you would like. Right now for what we've got for
Speaker 2: the home run tool with Betting Pros, okay, let's start
Speaker 2: with the number one option for home runs that today
Speaker 2: is Matt Olsen. Now Matt Olsen is facing Debbie Matthews
Speaker 2: at Target Field. It's the Braves at the Twins, so
Speaker 2: pitching matchup is very good. A guy in Matt Olsen
Speaker 2: should be able to feast on Zebbie Matthews. He has
Speaker 2: the power, he's been good recently. This is a three
Speaker 2: to one prop to hit a home run for matt Olsen.
Speaker 2: Here on the home run tool, however, let's just say,
Speaker 2: you know home runs. It's on the edge is about
Speaker 2: six percent, and he's hit four home runs in his
Speaker 2: last ten games. But if he hits a home run,
Speaker 2: we're going to go over one and a half total bases.
Speaker 2: But if he doesn't hit a home run, we can
Speaker 2: still cash in on the projection, which is two point
Speaker 2: five total bases for matt Olsen. It is a five
Speaker 2: star play on the prop bet cheat sheet. And a
Speaker 2: guy who has been consistently going over one and a half,
Speaker 2: including ten of his last fifteen games, has gone over
Speaker 2: one and a half total basis. This is a plus
Speaker 2: money play at most sports books at over one and
Speaker 2: a half plus one o eight plus one oh five
Speaker 2: somewhere in that range. And you've got a guy who
Speaker 2: yesterday hit a home run had three RBIs against the
Speaker 2: Arizona Do I guess not yesterday but two games ago,
Speaker 2: two days ago against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Last game he
Speaker 2: went over well. He went one for three with a
Speaker 2: double yesterday, so he went over one and a half
Speaker 2: total bases yesterday. So he's had two four and three
Speaker 2: total bases in his last three games. He missed it
Speaker 2: in back to back games, but he had it before that.
Speaker 2: So we're talking about four of the last six games,
Speaker 2: Matt Olsen has gone over one and a half two bases.
Speaker 1: We got the PCA.
Speaker 2: The PCA over one and a half total bases, right,
Speaker 2: I guess it was hits runs and RBIs. Yesterday, on
Speaker 2: the first at bat, first swing of the game, he
Speaker 2: hit a home run. He became the first player since
Speaker 2: twenty ten to hit a home run to start the
Speaker 2: game and hit a home run to end the game.
Speaker 2: I mean, that's an incredible night. That's his MVP night.
Speaker 2: That's what he did last night. Just an unreal night
Speaker 2: for a player that is going to win the MVP
Speaker 2: because I think Otani's numbers continue to drop, although he
Speaker 2: did hit two hole runs yesterday for the Dodgers. I
Speaker 2: just think that that's a player in PCA and then
Speaker 2: Karl Armstrong is going to win the MVP just because
Speaker 2: of what he's doing, and some fatigue. Frank frankly, voter
Speaker 2: fatigue is a real thing, and so I think they
Speaker 2: want to give it to somebody else.
Speaker 1: I think they're going to give it to him.
Speaker 2: But for today, we can attack the prop bet cheat
Speaker 2: sheet and we can come in and take it as Okay,
Speaker 2: we have an opportunity here for Matt Olsen. You get
Speaker 2: better to win a hold, hit a home run if
Speaker 2: you like, But Matt Olsen over one and a half
Speaker 2: total bases is a plus one to eight play for
Speaker 2: one unit. Let's stay with the home run projections, and
Speaker 2: then the second best option is Griffin Conine of the Marlins.
Speaker 2: Now he's facing Zach Wheeler, and you might go like, whoo, Matt,
Speaker 2: my gosh. Have you looked at Zach Wheeler's numbers for
Speaker 2: his last two starts at home against the Blue Jays
Speaker 2: In a five to four loss, he went five and
Speaker 2: a third seven hits, four earned runs, gave up a
Speaker 2: home run, looked five In the start. His last start
Speaker 2: on the road against Saint Louis, he went five innings,
Speaker 2: gave up six hits, four earned runs, five k's in
Speaker 2: just eighty four pitches. Both games. Zach Wheeler took the
Speaker 2: loss for the Phillies. In fact, the Phillies have lost
Speaker 2: four of the last five games started by Zach Wheeler.
Speaker 2: His ERA is up to two point eight nine and
Speaker 2: his ERA in the month of August is five point
Speaker 2: eight four. So before you go, well, Matt, my gosh,
Speaker 2: we're going with a Zach Wheeler prop, I mean a
Speaker 2: batter prop against Zach Wheeler. That's kind of dangerous. Well,
Speaker 2: Griffin Conine to hit a home run is a guy
Speaker 2: that you could probably if you want to throw a
Speaker 2: flyer on it. It's not a horrible idea to plus
Speaker 2: four fifty prop. He hasn't homer since the twelfth of August,
Speaker 2: but prop bet cheat sheet likes him.
Speaker 1: Instead.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go hits runs in RBIs, which is again
Speaker 2: a five star play projection one point eight hits runs
Speaker 2: in RBIs from the prop bet cheat sheet, and he's
Speaker 2: gone over this over a half a hit run in
Speaker 2: RBI in every game dating all the way back to
Speaker 2: the to August eighth, except one where he did against Cincinnati.
Speaker 2: So that is a eight of nine run going for
Speaker 2: Griffin Conine to get a hit an RBI or a run.
Speaker 2: So if he walks and scores on a home run
Speaker 2: or walks and scores on somebody else's you know, double
Speaker 2: He gets it there. For us, I the prop bet
Speaker 2: Cheet sheet really does like hits runs in RBIs, and
Speaker 2: frankly I like it a lot too, because it gives
Speaker 2: you multiple chances, in particular when it's only a half.
Speaker 2: I mean that's tremendous. It's only a half. It's a
Speaker 2: it's a great market to get involved with. We're going
Speaker 2: Griffin Conine over one and a half, over a half sorry,
Speaker 2: hits runs and RBIs on this at minus one thirty five.
Speaker 2: I've seen this moves are to move, so hopefully this
Speaker 2: jews doesn't get to be too extravagant. I would play
Speaker 2: this all the way up to like one fifty on this,
Speaker 2: but I do like Gryfn Conine over a half, hits
Speaker 2: runs and RBIs. We may end up seeing this thing
Speaker 2: go to one and a half at certain books, just
Speaker 2: because I think that number is too low, given it
Speaker 2: Zach Wheeler and what Zach Wheeler's look like.
Speaker 1: That number just is too low.
Speaker 2: And finally we're coming in with the Tigers and the Pirates.
Speaker 2: Why Braxton Ashcraft is pitching again seven to and won
Speaker 2: to the over. Over the last ten starts for Braxton
Speaker 2: Ashcraft thirteen to one. The win a nine complete game,
Speaker 2: nine innings, only one earned run start on the road
Speaker 2: last time out for him, he was dominant the first
Speaker 2: the last two games in August five to two, four
Speaker 2: to one. But this is a guy that in the
Speaker 2: month of July had an array of seven point seven
Speaker 2: to eight. He had eight seven, eight, five, seven, six
Speaker 2: and eight to one totals here and the total is eight.
Speaker 1: It's a lower total.
Speaker 2: Than what we've seen in the past here for certain
Speaker 2: games involving the Pirates and Braxton Ashcraft. Kider Montero is
Speaker 2: going on the other side. He's nine and seven with
Speaker 2: a three point two two ERA. His roadi RA is
Speaker 2: pretty good two seventy seven a four and three mark.
Speaker 2: But he's not going to pitch long in this game.
Speaker 2: This is not going to be a game he hangs
Speaker 2: around for more than four or five or six innings.
Speaker 2: So we'll get into the bullpen for the Tigers. To
Speaker 2: the Tigers for uh the opposing offense here and a
Speaker 2: chance to get after it offensive wise with the Pirates
Speaker 2: who have been scoring runs. The one thing with the
Speaker 2: Pirates is they have been scoring runs here eight to
Speaker 2: five the win for the Tigers yesterday. Let's have another
Speaker 2: one of those eight to five games coming up here
Speaker 2: for today, and let's play the over for Tigers and
Speaker 2: the Pirates over eight and minus one ten for one
Speaker 2: point one units. We're gonna play Griffin Conine over a
Speaker 2: half hits runs in RBIs at mins one thirty five
Speaker 2: and Matt Olsen over one and a half total bases
Speaker 2: at plus one oh five for us here today on
Speaker 2: a Tuesday, hopefully we continue back to Beck winnings days.
Speaker 2: Let's make it three minu's Matt Parolti, you guys and
Speaker 2: follow me across all my socials at Sports Talk Matt
Speaker 2: every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.
Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice