WEBVTT - Surveillance: Virus Messaging With Dr. Quick 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:12.960 Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.560 Daily we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:28.200 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg TONYDI 0:00:28.520 --> 0:00:31.880 of kind of co generity. Tony always fantastic to catch 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:34.600 up with you, sir. Let's just think about things we 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:37.159 can solidate and you want to add risk as we 0:00:37.240 --> 0:00:41.080 can solidate. Why is that, Tony? Well, John, I think 0:00:41.440 --> 0:00:44.120 ultimately there's two phrases that we've all come to know, 0:00:44.200 --> 0:00:46.600 and that's don't fight the FED and don't fight the tape. 0:00:47.000 --> 0:00:50.120 The FED is extraordinary here you have a FED that 0:00:50.240 --> 0:00:53.520 is literally looked into a television camera and said, we're 0:00:53.600 --> 0:00:56.560 just printing the money and don't worry about that. Now 0:00:56.760 --> 0:00:59.080 is not the time to worry about that. And we're 0:00:59.080 --> 0:01:03.040 gonna issue unlimited support for the credit markets. And the 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:05.600 phrase that really, I think has has hurt so many 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:09.160 portfolio managers and myself frankly, over time is it's not 0:01:09.319 --> 0:01:11.400 it's different this time. That's the phrase we all love 0:01:11.440 --> 0:01:14.119 to talk about. I think the real phrase that really 0:01:14.200 --> 0:01:17.720 hurts performances. This will end badly because of course it's 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:20.080 going to add badly. You cannot fix exponential debt with 0:01:20.160 --> 0:01:24.480 infinity debt. However, in the current framework, the FET is 0:01:24.680 --> 0:01:29.679 very driven to obtain their to um. There's only two 0:01:29.720 --> 0:01:34.000 mandates full employment, which clearly even with a game we're 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:37.280 not going to get on over any over the near term, 0:01:37.360 --> 0:01:39.520 and stable core inflation, which they want to be at 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:42.959 two percent so recently last week at one. They're a 0:01:43.000 --> 0:01:44.760 long way off. So this FET is going to be 0:01:45.240 --> 0:01:48.440 sending the money in and I don't want to fight that. 0:01:50.160 --> 0:01:52.520 I mean, so this is really really important because you've 0:01:52.520 --> 0:01:55.120 been very clear that you're modeling a caution in a 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:58.160 bear market even off of a recession. Well we got 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:01.000 an m v e R recession, but you're putting a 0:02:01.040 --> 0:02:04.920 big asterisk next to it, right, Well, there's so we 0:02:05.040 --> 0:02:09.680 downgraded the market on January because we just we wanted 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:11.440 to take some risk off the table and it's just 0:02:11.480 --> 0:02:14.280 gotten way too excessive. Then of course I didn't expect 0:02:14.320 --> 0:02:17.560 a thirty you know that. I was glad we took 0:02:17.560 --> 0:02:20.480 some risk down. We added risk when we came out 0:02:20.520 --> 0:02:25.600 of what actually when FED chair Powell Tom said into 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:28.640 the camera on sixty Miss CBS is sixty minutes that 0:02:28.680 --> 0:02:31.400 we're just printing the money. I never thought you and 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:33.760 I have been doing this a long time. Did you 0:02:33.880 --> 0:02:36.560 ever think that the FED would actually not even use 0:02:36.880 --> 0:02:41.280 great terms like q E or buying trade. They're just 0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:44.520 saying they literally were printing the money. So at that 0:02:44.639 --> 0:02:48.239 point you know that they're going to try to um 0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:53.440 increase economic activity, not stop until they do, Tony, don't 0:02:53.440 --> 0:02:55.880 fight the FED is certainly one theme that we've had 0:02:55.919 --> 0:02:58.440 this year. The other theme is don't fight the big 0:02:58.480 --> 0:03:01.360 tech rally, but that's getting three reatened by the Facebook 0:03:01.440 --> 0:03:05.640 advertising boycott is really raising questions in general about the 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:09.240 advertising budgets of big companies. How much could that influence 0:03:09.240 --> 0:03:12.680 the rally going forward? Well, I think that that could 0:03:13.080 --> 0:03:16.400 create a little bit. So once we have created the market, 0:03:16.400 --> 0:03:18.800 you've got this incredible runoff of that trading range. So 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:21.000 on June five, we thought that the market would go 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:25.080 into a period consolidation because these stocks has seen extraordinary 0:03:25.160 --> 0:03:28.639 moves right there. It's just even the economically sense of stocks. 0:03:28.639 --> 0:03:30.680 You had a two week rally in the banks of 0:03:30.720 --> 0:03:33.639 thirty and it was time to take a little bit 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:36.920 of that. That is an extraordinary thing that's never happened. 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:39.320 So it's time to take a little bit. It was 0:03:39.400 --> 0:03:40.960 time to take a little bit of money off the table. 0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:45.440 So actually, the market has been consolidating since early June. 0:03:45.800 --> 0:03:47.760 So if you look at the percentage of stocks above 0:03:47.800 --> 0:03:51.400 the ten day, it's dropped uh SMP components above their 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:53.240 ten day moving average, it's all the way back to 0:03:53.360 --> 0:03:57.000 only if you look at the percentage of stocks above 0:03:57.040 --> 0:03:59.800 their fifty day in the SMP just two and a 0:04:00.000 --> 0:04:04.520 half weeks ago, that reading was over. It was it's 0:04:04.560 --> 0:04:10.960 now so you've dropped, or so you you're already internally 0:04:11.000 --> 0:04:13.680 consolidating the market. Now it's catching up at the indices 0:04:13.920 --> 0:04:16.479 because some of those big mega caps stay at home 0:04:16.560 --> 0:04:20.800 stocks are starting to get hit, Tony A. We're redefining 0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:23.960 what a defensive asset actually is. Is a groat stock 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:26.919 of software stock with an anovated multiple of thirty times 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:31.159 forward earnings is not a defensive asset right now, buddy, 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:34.520 I I'll tell you time you meet. At least all 0:04:34.520 --> 0:04:37.440 of us have been doing this a while. The NASDAC 0:04:37.600 --> 0:04:42.240 mega cap stocks are considered the defensive stocks, which I 0:04:42.400 --> 0:04:46.839 just that is unique to this cycle. Um, So when 0:04:46.880 --> 0:04:50.200 you put those stocks, if you're making an offensive bet, 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:52.440 you've got to be believing that there's going to be 0:04:52.480 --> 0:04:55.679 a reopening of economic activity. And again, our our target 0:04:55.960 --> 0:05:00.000 is a story. It's not you know, in the next 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:02.200 fifteen minutes, we're off to the races. I think what 0:05:02.279 --> 0:05:05.760 you want to do is use periods of liquidity on 0:05:05.839 --> 0:05:10.000 the downside to add exposure. Okay, but Tony, where are 0:05:10.040 --> 0:05:12.279 you putting new money? You got new money, you're putting 0:05:12.320 --> 0:05:13.840 it to work? Where are you putting it to work? 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:16.680 So we're we've been thinking if you're gonna put money 0:05:16.760 --> 0:05:18.880 into the market, it's got to be on this economic 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:23.240 reopening or an offensive sector allocation, which would be in 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:27.640 the beleaguered banks, which got absolutely smoked on Friday on 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:30.560 the Fed decision. Um. What was interesting about Friday though, 0:05:30.560 --> 0:05:33.040 even though the market was pretty pretty weak, as you know, 0:05:33.520 --> 0:05:39.040 the industrials and materials actually significantly outperformed the SMP. So 0:05:39.320 --> 0:05:42.560 we're looking to go into those areas time that benefit 0:05:42.640 --> 0:05:46.040 from an economic reopening and not a stay at home forever. 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:47.960 But again, this is something we're looking at over the 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:53.159 next twelve eighteen months, not the twelve next twelve eighteen minutes. John, 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:55.839 I've struck by Tony's comments and frankly the comments that 0:05:55.839 --> 0:05:58.080 we get from a lot of investment managers, this idea 0:05:58.120 --> 0:06:00.480 that we could have more upside and stocks even though 0:06:00.480 --> 0:06:03.560 the economy faces a lot of uncertainty and downside surprise. 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:07.599 And again, I'm just struck by this dissonance between stocks 0:06:07.720 --> 0:06:11.400 not necessarily representing the underlying economy where the bottom fifth 0:06:11.800 --> 0:06:16.680 of all earners in America are currently about below employment 0:06:16.800 --> 0:06:19.560 level seen in February. I'm just wondering how this is 0:06:19.600 --> 0:06:23.600 going to filter into equities if ever, Well, least you've 0:06:23.600 --> 0:06:25.640 said it a million times, the equity market is not 0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:27.960 the economy, and Tony with just five big names making 0:06:28.040 --> 0:06:30.520 up about a quarter of the SMP five hundred, it's 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:32.640 something we've just got to accept, isn't it. Some people 0:06:32.640 --> 0:06:35.239 are really struggling with this still, that the equity market 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:38.480 somehow has to be a reflection of where this economy 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:42.000 is and where it's going. Well. Which equity market though, 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:45.480 um so, and again I think that's the most important phrase. 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:48.360 Would I would I chase some of those megacap stocks 0:06:48.360 --> 0:06:51.120 that have had such an extraordinary move. I wouldn't have. 0:06:51.839 --> 0:06:56.360 For example, Facebook on Friday gave back all the games 0:06:56.400 --> 0:06:59.480 that had had in the prior month and change. So 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:02.240 what what you have is elevated risk. When you have 0:07:02.400 --> 0:07:06.320 parabolic moves higher or such focused move higher, I want 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:09.840 to I want to invest in America or or um 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:14.000 economic activity in a reopening of the economy. I don't 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:16.640 want to. I don't want to be chasing the stay 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:20.600 at home work theme forever. Clearly that has been working 0:07:20.640 --> 0:07:22.720 and that has been such a driver of the equity 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:25.520 market thus far. But again, if you look at the 0:07:25.720 --> 0:07:28.920 well at the performance of the Russell one thousand growth 0:07:29.000 --> 0:07:32.200 versus the Russell one thousand value, you're seeing not just 0:07:32.320 --> 0:07:36.880 an absolute uh test of what happened in the dot 0:07:36.920 --> 0:07:39.840 com era, but even on a ten week rade of change, 0:07:40.200 --> 0:07:42.040 you saw a peak and it is now kind of 0:07:42.080 --> 0:07:44.520 pulling back a little bit. So I think the move is, 0:07:44.840 --> 0:07:48.840 to Tom's question, is value over growth and it's not played. 0:07:49.040 --> 0:07:51.280 It's not been the great theme coming off the low, 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:54.000 but coming out of a recession. Going to Lisa's point, 0:07:54.640 --> 0:07:59.480 coming out of a recession, typically your your outperformers are 0:07:59.600 --> 0:08:05.080 finance anchials, industrials, materials, and consumer discretionarya Those are the 0:08:05.120 --> 0:08:07.720 areas if you believe that the economy is ultimately going 0:08:07.720 --> 0:08:10.160 to recover, the global economy is ultimately going to recover, 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:13.080 those are the sectors that you want to buy into 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:15.720 the weakness that we've been expecting and could see a 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:18.400 little bit more. The two main problems that everybody had 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:21.480 for the market was what about the second wave and 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:25.760 what about if the Democrats do some kind of sweep. Well, 0:08:26.000 --> 0:08:29.840 the polling is pulling forward the political side, and the 0:08:29.880 --> 0:08:32.920 expansion of the COVID nineteen cases in the South is 0:08:33.000 --> 0:08:35.600 clearly telling us what the second wave could look like. 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:39.680 So that's this consolidation period. Instead of happening in the fall, 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:42.439 it's happening now, and I think that creates the opportunity 0:08:42.559 --> 0:08:47.920 for investing in those reopening areas over the next few months. 0:08:48.800 --> 0:08:51.319 Cound of coach Intimacy Tony always fantastic to catch up with. 0:08:51.360 --> 0:09:05.400 You appreciate the transparency the honest state joining us from 0:09:05.440 --> 0:09:08.000 Duke Downs. Jonathan Quick, and what is so important about 0:09:08.080 --> 0:09:11.640 Dr Quick is not only his exceptionally Prussian book The 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:15.360 End of Epidemics, but also it's a commitment over multiple 0:09:15.480 --> 0:09:22.000 decades to looking at the epidemic turned to pandemic. Dr Quick, 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:25.359 What everyone wants to know is what is your solution 0:09:25.559 --> 0:09:29.880 for the political chaos that we're in right now? It's 0:09:29.920 --> 0:09:34.560 not much different than an Albert Camus the plague. How 0:09:34.559 --> 0:09:39.400 do you extricate yourself from the political chaos to end 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:44.960 with a better medical outcome? Well, I I think the 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:48.640 first thing is that we need to keep persisting in 0:09:49.360 --> 0:09:53.160 getting the getting the public, everybody to see the reality 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:56.480 in front of us, and to do what works. Um, 0:09:57.320 --> 0:10:02.200 We're sitting here in the US seeing explosive increases, UH, 0:10:02.240 --> 0:10:05.240 with at least thirty of the states seeing increases. Yet 0:10:05.280 --> 0:10:09.560 we look around the world and we see what works. Um. 0:10:09.920 --> 0:10:13.319 I think we've had the worst of a pandemic communication 0:10:13.559 --> 0:10:18.200 in the sense that we have our leaders, um, you know, 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:21.920 not on a on a common message. And that's that's 0:10:21.960 --> 0:10:26.520 part of it. And UM, I think right now we're 0:10:26.559 --> 0:10:31.240 based on the Rockefeller Foundations, we're working to build an 0:10:31.280 --> 0:10:37.040 alliance of public organizations to get a consistent message out 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:40.720 to the public about the viruses here. And so if 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:43.840 the leaders aren't coming together, I think society has to 0:10:43.880 --> 0:10:47.440 come together. But keep pushing the leaders with facing the 0:10:47.520 --> 0:10:50.360 reality we've got this pandemic. We know it will be 0:10:50.440 --> 0:10:52.040 with us for a while and we know what to 0:10:52.120 --> 0:10:58.080 do to to slow it down. Your work included six 0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:00.720 years of the World Health Organization, and you are a 0:11:00.760 --> 0:11:03.600 good filter of all the literature that is out there. 0:11:04.160 --> 0:11:09.240 If we see the case count explode in Florida to Arizona, 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:13.319 do you just correlate correlate that over to a rising 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:20.920 death count in the coming weeks. Well, yes, with with 0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:27.400 the recognition that the shift early in the outbreak, it 0:11:27.520 --> 0:11:30.800 was really a lot of at risk, all the people 0:11:30.840 --> 0:11:34.960 we weren't protecting the most vulnerable. Um, so we're seeing 0:11:35.000 --> 0:11:40.199 now cases rise, but the death account at the point, 0:11:40.280 --> 0:11:45.520 at the present time is is holding steady. So um, 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:50.480 we will see more deaths, we will see proportionally fewer 0:11:50.559 --> 0:11:53.240 because more of the cases are younger people who don't 0:11:53.440 --> 0:11:55.960 don't die is often. But yes, indeed we will see 0:11:56.080 --> 0:12:00.839 rises in death count as as the increase now mostly 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:04.400 in the in the youth gets filters up to the 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:07.400 middle age and older. So yeah, I expect we will 0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:11.679 see the death count coming back up dr quick. This 0:12:11.760 --> 0:12:14.520 distinction is so important, This idea that you're seeing the 0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:17.280 case count rise exponentially in some areas, but the death 0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:20.199 count not expected to rise as much and not rising 0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:24.200 significantly at this point. Could this be interpreted as perhaps 0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:27.280 these flare ups not being as dangerous as the initial 0:12:27.320 --> 0:12:30.720 ones and being just another sign of reopening economy, young 0:12:30.720 --> 0:12:33.559 people getting back into the workforce and managing through the 0:12:33.679 --> 0:12:37.040 virus to get some sort of herd immunity without necessarily 0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:39.480 a vaccine on the on the horizon for the next 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:44.520 couple of months. Well, I mean, honestly, I think that's UH. 0:12:44.559 --> 0:12:47.320 I think that's a wishful thinking in the sense that 0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:54.400 um UH is a bigger outbreak, even if proportionally more 0:12:54.480 --> 0:12:58.280 of it is in the youth, it's still gonna claim lives. 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:02.360 The virus hasn't changed changed, And I think one reality 0:13:02.480 --> 0:13:06.680 is it's not UM saving lives of saving the economy. 0:13:06.720 --> 0:13:10.080 That's a false choice. We can do both, But our 0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:15.439 biggest failure has been not to really reinforce those basic 0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:21.120 personal protective behaviors which we know work distancing face mailk handwashing, 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:26.280 avoid large gatherings. UM. I think there's an in between 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:29.679 where we I mean, staying indoors for three months didn't 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:33.760 change the virus. It's still just as contagious. And whether 0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:38.560 you whether you start with a youth epidemic because they're 0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:45.560 not following enough that these personal protective behaviors um it 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:50.480 will eventually continue um and and affect the whole population. 0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:53.640 So we we we do have to reopen, but we 0:13:53.760 --> 0:13:55.679 have to we have to do it in a way 0:13:56.040 --> 0:14:00.320 which really applies the lessons of what has worked in 0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:03.960 other countries to plateau at least the virus and and 0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:07.920 minimize UH and reduce the desks and and all of 0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:12.200 the knock on effects. Dr Quick, how long do you 0:14:12.200 --> 0:14:15.880 think it will be until we have a vaccine? Well, 0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:19.520 I have to say I'm encouraged by the vaccine work 0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:23.240 that's going on now because we have UH we have 0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:30.560 at least nearly twenty vaccines and human trials and that's exciting. 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:33.840 And we've got a couple that are going into the 0:14:33.880 --> 0:14:39.600 Astrozenic University of Oxford one and the MODERNA one. Both 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:43.440 of those are going into to the last phase of 0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:47.240 human trials where we really go on a large scale 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:50.760 to test the safety and efficacy. UM So I'm encouraged. 0:14:51.360 --> 0:14:54.200 That said, the whole process of scaling up production and 0:14:54.280 --> 0:14:58.640 all I think we'll start seeing some coming out in 0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:01.120 the spring is for so hope, but I don't see 0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:07.200 large scale vaccine availability that changes things fundamentally until until 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:13.120 the uh, you know latter half of as as folks 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:16.640 have been saying since the beginning, I think that hasn't changed. 0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:20.280 But I do think the speed has been historic and 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:23.640 um and the companies are really looking at how to 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:29.840 maximize production quick of the Rockefeller Foundation Dot Defense has 0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:31.240 to catch up with you say, you've got to come 0:15:31.280 --> 0:15:44.040 back on soon. This is a really interesting interview because 0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:48.680 he's a very interesting guy. His father basically made modern 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:52.920 Miami Beach. Seymour Gelbert was the mayor of Miami Beach forever, 0:15:53.080 --> 0:15:56.200 lived at the lofty age of years old, and his 0:15:56.360 --> 0:16:01.040 son Dan has carried the torch forward. Steeped in Florida politics, 0:16:01.040 --> 0:16:04.280 he's one of the most interesting Democratic voices across the 0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:08.760 Sun Belt, and he is the the mayor of Miami Beach. 0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:12.200 Mayor Gilbert, thank you so much for joining us. If 0:16:12.240 --> 0:16:15.840 I went down to the Vetsy Hotel this morning, could 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:19.000 I have a beverage of my choice on that wonderful 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:23.880 veranda looking out across Miami Beach. Well, if it we're open, 0:16:24.040 --> 0:16:27.600 you could, because it's a restaurant, not a bar. Bars 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:31.440 have been closed in our city since we we sheltered 0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:34.720 in place. We're the first city in Florida to do so. 0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:36.880 So we don't have bars right now anywhere, but we 0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:42.280 do allow restaurants with limited capacity. At this point, what 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:46.320 is the capacity you need from your state government, including 0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:50.280 your Republican governor, and what do you need from Washington 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:53.960 right now? Well, first of all, from Washington, we need 0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:57.560 people to start sending out a message that you need 0:16:57.600 --> 0:16:59.560 to do the things that we're asking people to do. 0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:03.520 You know, I always describe you know, mayors in South 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:06.159 Florida know about hurricanes. They happen all the time, or 0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:10.040 at least they seem to, uh, you know, be be 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:14.359 coming towards our way generally during hurricane season. So we 0:17:14.400 --> 0:17:18.600 all prepare and there's never any discussion about whose fault 0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:21.600 it is, or whether it's what party it is, or 0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:23.920 everybody just does what they need to do, and they 0:17:23.920 --> 0:17:26.800 tend to help everybody else. They tend to listen to 0:17:26.960 --> 0:17:30.240 the direction of their political and health management leaders, and 0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:32.680 they tend to sort of get in line and help people. 0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:36.560 They don't even know this. For whatever reason, the messaging 0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:40.520 from Washington has not been help everybody else, help yourself. 0:17:40.600 --> 0:17:44.480 It's been don't wear a mask, or stand up against this, 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:47.600 or stand up against that. It's so unhelpful. Right now, 0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:50.399 the biggest concern we have is getting people to simply 0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:52.639 do what every health expert tells them they should do, 0:17:53.200 --> 0:17:55.360 which is to wear a mask. Wear a mask when 0:17:55.359 --> 0:17:57.680 you're near somebody, wear a master, protect your parents, wear 0:17:57.680 --> 0:18:01.560 a master, protect yourself. And they're not complying. And young 0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:05.040 people are especially not complying. And since my city is 0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:08.359 in the middle of this, because we get so many guests, 0:18:08.400 --> 0:18:12.640 so many visitors, so many uh you know, hospitality workers, 0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:15.920 all in this little interchange that happens in this little island, 0:18:16.359 --> 0:18:17.920 we see it in a big way and it has 0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:23.480 to We need direction, and we need leadership. As you 0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:25.720 look to leadership, there is a question about some of 0:18:25.760 --> 0:18:28.320 the hard decisions that you have to make as a 0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:30.720 leader of your city and as a parent. I know 0:18:30.800 --> 0:18:34.359 the conversation very much among my friends is a question 0:18:34.359 --> 0:18:36.679 about when summer camps can get back up and running, 0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:38.720 when we can get schools back up and running. I 0:18:38.760 --> 0:18:41.320 know that summer camps have been open in your region. 0:18:41.680 --> 0:18:43.960 At what point will you shut them down and keep 0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:49.000 schools closed come the fall. Well, you know, we have 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:52.919 tried very hard to follow very directly the advice of 0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:57.679 the health care professionals. So CDC allows for summer camps 0:18:57.760 --> 0:19:01.199 if all of these other visions are taken care of. 0:19:01.280 --> 0:19:04.960 And I think the Pediatric Association today really wants people 0:19:05.000 --> 0:19:07.880 to strive to open up schools in some way because 0:19:07.920 --> 0:19:10.880 they're worried about the impact of not having schools open 0:19:10.920 --> 0:19:14.160 and the failure to socialize and all those issues. So 0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:16.480 we're going to try to, you know, to do what 0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:20.360 we can within the confines and constraints of all of 0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:23.520 what the healthcare professionals say. This is a healthcare issue 0:19:23.520 --> 0:19:26.840 and it should be treated that way. That said, you know, 0:19:26.880 --> 0:19:29.480 a lot of it is what parents are going to permit. 0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:33.280 We opened up virtual and regular summer camps with with 0:19:33.400 --> 0:19:35.720 lots of restrictions, and we got a good number of 0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:39.119 people interested, but many obviously didn't. Um The reason we 0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:42.239 opened up summer camps and the reason why schools are 0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:44.520 trying to open up is obviously people can't work if 0:19:44.560 --> 0:19:48.280 their kids are at home, especially their younger children, and 0:19:48.280 --> 0:19:50.440 and so it's part of not just the kids development, 0:19:50.520 --> 0:19:54.480 but the economy. So We're trying very hard to navigate. 0:19:55.280 --> 0:19:57.880 But right now, given the spikes that we've the enormous 0:19:57.880 --> 0:20:01.400 spikes we've seen in the in the county, in the state, uh, 0:20:01.440 --> 0:20:03.120 you know, we're not sure what we're going to be doing, 0:20:03.200 --> 0:20:06.320 because if we can't get a handle on this, then 0:20:06.359 --> 0:20:12.520 obviously the health care concerns will override everything else. Mayor 0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:15.600 not an easy decision in tom I'm really struck, especially 0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:17.520 in what the mayor was talking about in terms of 0:20:17.520 --> 0:20:20.520 the economic concerns people not getting back to work if 0:20:20.520 --> 0:20:23.560 their kids are not in school, and the idea of 0:20:23.600 --> 0:20:27.920 what could happen if we have children congregating they don't 0:20:27.960 --> 0:20:30.720 social distance, and what happens with respect to all the 0:20:30.720 --> 0:20:35.640 little victors of disease who go home to their families. So, yeah, 0:20:35.840 --> 0:20:39.560 it's interesting here, Mayor gil Well, go ahead, please, Mayor Gilbert, 0:20:39.560 --> 0:20:48.280 go ahead. But what's interesting here too, euro up, What 0:20:48.400 --> 0:20:52.000 I was gonna say, excuse the delay, Mayor Gilbert. What 0:20:52.119 --> 0:20:55.359 I was gonna say is your father basically invented the 0:20:55.440 --> 0:20:58.359 idea of moving from New York down to Miami Beach. 0:20:58.400 --> 0:21:01.320 You took advantage of that out of Tufts and all that. 0:21:01.840 --> 0:21:05.639 How do you do the winter season in Miami Beach 0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:09.560 this year. How do you convince those Northerners to get 0:21:09.600 --> 0:21:14.520 down there when it gets chilly? Well, the first question 0:21:14.680 --> 0:21:17.800 is how we're going to tolerate crowds. I mean, my 0:21:18.160 --> 0:21:20.840 little city and I'm just a small part of the 0:21:20.880 --> 0:21:24.800 county has four thousand New York addresses people, you know, 0:21:24.840 --> 0:21:27.440 four thousand units are owned by New Yorkers, So we 0:21:27.800 --> 0:21:31.399 we have already a pretty natural influx of either people 0:21:31.480 --> 0:21:34.440 visiting or people living part of the year here, sometimes 0:21:34.600 --> 0:21:38.040 six months in a day for tax reasons. Um. But 0:21:38.960 --> 0:21:41.520 the tip of the matter is the market is going 0:21:41.560 --> 0:21:45.080 to determine some things because some people will simply not travel. 0:21:45.840 --> 0:21:49.400 So much of our hospitality economy is tethered two planes 0:21:49.600 --> 0:21:52.800 and boats, and the ships that are not gonna you know, 0:21:52.840 --> 0:21:55.920 the cruise line seem to be moored for quite some time. 0:21:56.040 --> 0:21:59.320 Right now. People are traveling by planes as much as 0:21:59.320 --> 0:22:01.640 they do, so we're seeing probably a little bit more 0:22:01.640 --> 0:22:04.760 regional tourism. But I don't know, I mean a lot 0:22:04.800 --> 0:22:08.000 of I mean we're worried. Obviously, we have huge events 0:22:08.040 --> 0:22:11.520 every year. Uh down here, we just had a Super Bowl, 0:22:11.520 --> 0:22:13.880 We've got the n C Double A championships obviously aren't 0:22:13.880 --> 0:22:17.760 bossil in December. We have lots of things that we 0:22:17.800 --> 0:22:21.520 rely on and that we enjoy. I mean, look, we 0:22:21.600 --> 0:22:25.159 are a community that is built to not socially distance ourselves. 0:22:25.200 --> 0:22:28.000 We are a community built for all the other gatherings 0:22:28.000 --> 0:22:31.720 that we want. Mr Matt, we gotta leave you that 0:22:31.800 --> 0:22:34.080 I appreciate your time this morning. Mac Alba that on 0:22:34.119 --> 0:22:48.880 a situation on Miami Beach and across Florida. Tiffany Wilding 0:22:48.960 --> 0:22:52.760 of PIMCOA, she does very careful economic work that their 0:22:52.840 --> 0:22:57.160 portfolio managers bounce off of. Tiffany, what is your calling off? 0:22:57.200 --> 0:23:00.520 I want an update from you on how V the 0:23:00.680 --> 0:23:05.680 V is. How's the V shaped recovery going? Well, I 0:23:05.720 --> 0:23:07.920 think it's gonna look like a V. First first, thanks 0:23:07.920 --> 0:23:09.399 for having me. I think it's going to look like 0:23:09.440 --> 0:23:12.680 a V in the first several months of this recovery. Now, 0:23:12.800 --> 0:23:14.359 what one thing that I would say is, I think 0:23:14.400 --> 0:23:16.360 it's very important to note so we think we came 0:23:16.359 --> 0:23:19.360 out of recession in May UM and as we came 0:23:19.359 --> 0:23:23.440 out of that recession is not only the deepest recession UM, 0:23:23.440 --> 0:23:25.880 but it's also the shortest recession. So we clearly saw 0:23:25.960 --> 0:23:28.320 growth in the payroll figures as well as retail sales 0:23:28.359 --> 0:23:30.280 and things like that in May. So we probably came 0:23:30.280 --> 0:23:32.439 out of recession in May. And I think what's going 0:23:32.480 --> 0:23:34.399 to happen is this these next couple of months are 0:23:34.400 --> 0:23:37.000 going to look very much like a v shape recovery 0:23:37.040 --> 0:23:40.040 as we get this spurt of activity, as people you know, 0:23:40.119 --> 0:23:42.520 start to get back to work, um and and start 0:23:42.560 --> 0:23:45.800 to reopen the economy. Um. But after that, we think 0:23:45.840 --> 0:23:47.960 the recovery is going to be much slower. And I 0:23:47.960 --> 0:23:49.720 think you're you know, you're starting to see some of 0:23:49.720 --> 0:23:52.280 the effects of reopening the economy with um, you know, 0:23:52.320 --> 0:23:55.439 some of the rising cases within the Sung Belt within 0:23:55.480 --> 0:23:58.080 the United States of of the COVID virus. You know. 0:23:58.200 --> 0:24:00.720 So after that kind of initial spurt of activity, things 0:24:00.720 --> 0:24:03.760 are going to be much more slow going. We think, okay, well, 0:24:04.200 --> 0:24:06.240 you know a lot of the reports over the weekend, 0:24:06.240 --> 0:24:09.119 Tiffany have this down you go, and there's sort of 0:24:09.160 --> 0:24:12.840