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Speaker 1: The volume Collin Coward Podcast presented by FanDuel Sports Book.

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Speaker 1: and welcome in. I have my favorite NFL bet of

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Speaker 1: the year with Chad Millman in ten minutes. I'm not joking.

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Speaker 1: First though, fake questions, real answers. There's stuff I want

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Speaker 1: to talk about and don't want to wait for you

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Speaker 1: to ask me. Dear Colin, what do you make about

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Speaker 1: the strong Chip Kelly to Oregon rumors. Listen, there's an

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Speaker 1: old saying. You can never go home again. Chip Kelly

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Speaker 1: is an outlier. He's not a good recruiter and doesn't

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Speaker 1: like it, but yet one ninety two percent of his

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Speaker 1: conference games at Oregon and eighty seven percent of his

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Speaker 1: games overall. He's the only exception I can think of

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Speaker 1: in college football in the last twenty thirty years who

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Speaker 1: was a dominating coach and didn't like recruiting. How did

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Speaker 1: it work? Because he caught the sport flat footed. You

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Speaker 1: remember the pace of play. Nick sabans that it's bad

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Speaker 1: for the sport. Officials couldn't keep up. Well, the sport

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Speaker 1: now has caught up. And what Chip is is a

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Speaker 1: smarter than average coach who has a disdain for recruiting.

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Speaker 1: I follow it closely. UCLA somewhere between fourth, fifth or

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Speaker 1: sixth best recruiting class in the Pac twelve annually, and

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Speaker 1: that's an LA based school. I like Chip. I think

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Speaker 1: he's smarter than average. But you can't go home again.

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Speaker 1: That was lightning in a bottle. If I was Oregon,

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Speaker 1: I would hire California head coach Justin Wilcox. Wilcox family

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Speaker 1: has great history in the state of Oregon. Dear Colin,

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Speaker 1: what do you say to those people mocking you for

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Speaker 1: flip flopping on Mac Jones? Well, what I say is

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Speaker 1: it is an absolute privilege as a broadcaster to be recognized, imitated,

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Speaker 1: and occasionally jabbed in the ribs. It means in a

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Speaker 1: fragment in market, you're being consumed. Nobody's talking about the

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Speaker 1: weekend hosts on networks or the overnight hosts. I heard

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson say this once. Pressure is a privilege. It

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Speaker 1: means you're playing in big games that matter. I think

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Speaker 1: being criticized as a broadcaster is a privilege. It means

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Speaker 1: you're consuming my work. Listen, I talk three hours a day. Shocker,

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Speaker 1: I whiff a lot. I have strong opinions. Sometimes I'm wrong.

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Speaker 1: I never take it personally. Most of the people, in fact,

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Speaker 1: probably nine out of ten that criticize me also follow

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Speaker 1: me on social media. Dear Colin, you've been very critical

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Speaker 1: of Tuah. What do you have to say now, Well,

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Speaker 1: what I have to say is there are three quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: in this league right now, and they all have something

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Speaker 1: in common, Mac Jones, Tuah, and Teddy Bridgewater. Now, in

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Speaker 1: all three cases we realize their ceiling is lower, but

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Speaker 1: yet Mac Jones last five games hundred and sixteen quarterback

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Speaker 1: rating five and oh Tua last five games ninety seven

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Speaker 1: passer rating. Four games over one hundred he's won four

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Speaker 1: oh five and Teddy Bridgewater sixty three percent completion percentage,

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Speaker 1: three games above a hundred passer rating. So what do

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Speaker 1: these three have in common? Besides a low ceiling, besides

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Speaker 1: the fact that none of the three are hyper athletic,

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Speaker 1: they also have this in common. They have great defensive

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Speaker 1: coaches Vic Fangio, Brian Flores, and Bill Belichick. You're not

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Speaker 1: going to win super Bowls this way. You can, though,

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Speaker 1: win a lot of games as an accurate quarterback that

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Speaker 1: makes few mistakes with a great defensive head coach. Tua

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Speaker 1: is a left handed Mac Bridgewaters and older Mac Jones.

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Speaker 1: I know it's boring. I know it's not fascinating. It's

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Speaker 1: like the cardboard box industry, which is on fire because

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Speaker 1: now everything's delivered through Amazon. It's like the hottest industry

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Speaker 1: in America, and it's boring. It's the cardboard box. But

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Speaker 1: in this league, lower ceiling quarterbacks who don't turn it

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Speaker 1: over win regularly. Three examples this year when they have

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Speaker 1: a great defensive head coach. Dear Colin, is there a

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Speaker 1: lesson to be gleaned? Oh? I love that word? Thanks

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Speaker 1: for asking. Is there a lesson to be gleaned from

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Speaker 1: Patrick mahomes struggles this year? Yes, we should listen to scouts.

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Speaker 1: I remember when Cam Newton came out and there was

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Speaker 1: a man named Nolan nor Rocky. He had a scouting

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Speaker 1: report of Cam and I'm going to read you a

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Speaker 1: couple of the things it said. Has an enormous ego

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Speaker 1: with a sense of entitlement, will at times struggle to

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Speaker 1: win a locker room. Lacks accountability, focus, isn't punctual, has

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Speaker 1: issues with authority, not always dependable. Looking back on that,

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Speaker 1: fairly accurate. The scouts know what they're doing, and what

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Speaker 1: they said about Patrick Mahomes was remarkably high ceiling, but

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Speaker 1: harder to coach. Tends to be an ad liber doesn't

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Speaker 1: really have a repeatable passing motion. It changes constantly, and

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Speaker 1: so what you're seeing with Patrick Mahomes is what the

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Speaker 1: scouts said. He has an incredibly high ceiling, but it

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Speaker 1: is not always consistent. Here's something to remember. The MVP

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Speaker 1: year he had fifty touchdowns. You may have forgotten this.

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Speaker 1: The following year, in which he won the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: he had only twenty six and in fact, the last

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Speaker 1: six regular season games of that season he had eight

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Speaker 1: touchdowns and four picks. He's always been inconsistent college to

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Speaker 1: the pros. He's always been streaky and hot and cold.

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Speaker 1: It's just that his ceiling is remarkably high. Listen to

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Speaker 1: the scouts. They know what they're doing with Cam, with Mahomes,

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Speaker 1: even with Mac Jones, they're overwhelmingly right. I remember Chris

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Speaker 1: Burke of Sports Illustrated had said, quote, Mahomes make cachanics,

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Speaker 1: can be scatter shot, which is why he'll thread a

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Speaker 1: needle on one play and then fire an easy pass

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Speaker 1: into the third row the next. Mel kiper quote, Mahomes

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Speaker 1: has a high ceiling, but he's going to have to

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Speaker 1: learn how NFL offenses are run, and the Chiefs are

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Speaker 1: going to have to rebuild his mechanics from the ground up. Folks,

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Speaker 1: scouts know what they're doing. Trust him. Dear Colin Zion

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Speaker 1: Williamson has now missed more games than he's played, eighty

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Speaker 1: six to eighty five. Do you think he was overhyped? No?

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Speaker 1: I actually don't. I think all of us, all of

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Speaker 1: you got it right. I said, before he got drafted,

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Speaker 1: I thought he was a marketing machine. He had an

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Speaker 1: incredibly unique game, and as bigs have become increasingly European,

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Speaker 1: he's a physical force that will dominate quickly. That is

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Speaker 1: exactly what happened. He literally broke Chamberlain's records. But you

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Speaker 1: also knew and I also said, I worry about his

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Speaker 1: torque gaining weight. Remember the criticism was he doesn't shoot jumpers.

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Speaker 1: It never bothered me. I said, most college kids are

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Speaker 1: not great shooters. They're going to class limitations on practice time,

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Speaker 1: in gym time. Zion is exactly what everybody thought, which

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Speaker 1: is when healthy, he's a game wrecker, but he'll struggle

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Speaker 1: with weight and health. I would say the scouting report

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Speaker 1: was unstoppable, yet potentially unstable. I think all of us, you, me, scouts, executives, analysts,

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Speaker 1: were completely accurate. Was Zion Williamson. He's gone from wilt

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Speaker 1: to wilting, but we all saw it coming. Dear Colin,

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Speaker 1: did you hear about that Oklahoma senator who wants to

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Speaker 1: rename a three inch stretch of desolate Highway the Lincoln

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Speaker 1: Riley Highway to get back at him for ditching Okahama. Yes,

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Speaker 1: I heard, and it's embarrassing. Let's stay out of the

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Speaker 1: politics for a second and ask yourself this the day

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Speaker 1: before Lincoln Riley left. If you're a Sooner fan, had

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Speaker 1: I said to you Bret Venables, Brent Venables is a

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Speaker 1: better coach than Lincoln Riley, what would you have said

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Speaker 1: to that? Lincoln Riley had won National Coach of the Year,

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Speaker 1: had been up for the Cowboys job, was a multiple

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Speaker 1: winner of Big Twelve Coach of the Year. If I

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Speaker 1: would have said the day before Lincoln Riley left, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the defensive coordinator in an increasingly offensive game is a

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Speaker 1: better coach than Lincoln Riley, you would have rolled your eyes.

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Speaker 1: It would have been a hot take and a ridiculous opinion.

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Speaker 1: Lincoln Riley is a better coach than Brent Venables. If

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Speaker 1: Brent Venables struggles and the SEC let's face it, Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: in two years is going to be battling for third

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Speaker 1: because Bama and Georgia are are ruling the conference and

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Speaker 1: it's only getting better. Arkansas's better, Texas A and M's

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Speaker 1: a machine now are in recruiting, Kentucky, a basketball school's better,

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Speaker 1: and Brian Kelly better than at Orgeron's now at LSU.

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Speaker 1: So if venables doesn't work in four years, because Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: is not going to be terribly patient. This is a

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Speaker 1: top five six program in America and Lincoln Riley does

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Speaker 1: really well at USC, but missus Oklahoma in Texas and

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Speaker 1: they offer him the job in Oklahoma? Are you not

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Speaker 1: going to put your arms around him? I understand fans

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Speaker 1: being juvenile and emotional, but Senators, this is why people

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Speaker 1: have lost respect, admiration and trust in politicians. This is

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Speaker 1: something Johnny from Enid, Oklahoma talks about at a saloon,

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Speaker 1: not something in Oklahoma. Senator in acts, embarrassing NFL playoffs

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Speaker 1: in Chad Millman, Chief content Officer, Action Network. I believe

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Speaker 1: these are the best line since about week four. I

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Speaker 1: I sharp square, I don't know, I'll just I'll decipher that.

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Speaker 1: But let me just start with my game of the year. Now.

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Speaker 1: The number was great at three and a half. I

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Speaker 1: still like it at three Buffalo. And here's why this

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Speaker 1: is a proud team. They're in a little bit of

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Speaker 1: trouble here outside of the Jagson Houston every everybody is

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Speaker 1: still buying for the playoffs in the AFC. It doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter that they don't run the ball particularly well, because

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Speaker 1: they couldn't run it against Tampa anyway. They are a

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Speaker 1: humiliated team, an embarrassed team, a mocked team, and a

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Speaker 1: desperate space. I love them to not only beat Tampa,

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Speaker 1: but we know how Buffalo wins to beat them up

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Speaker 1: a little bit. I love the Bills plus the point

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Speaker 1: Sharper square totally sharp sharp, and not only that. For

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Speaker 1: everything you just said, from the psychological components to the

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Speaker 1: on the field components, to how it plays into what

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Speaker 1: they're really good versus what the what they're really good

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Speaker 1: at versus what the Bucks aren't is good at. You're right,

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Speaker 1: the line opened at three and a half, got that

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Speaker 1: down to three. Here's what's interesting. So much public money

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Speaker 1: is coming in on the Bucks. I know this is

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Speaker 1: overreaction to what team, what fans see in prime time

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Speaker 1: that the line bounce backed up to three and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's entirely possible you can get this at four, like

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Speaker 1: come Sunday as the late money comes in. That's when

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Speaker 1: the public really bets in that twelve to one eastern window.

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Speaker 1: Who knows if you can get the three and a half,

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Speaker 1: take the three and a half because the hook I

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Speaker 1: think will be very important in this game. But I

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Speaker 1: also would not I would not think that this game

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Speaker 1: doesn't get to four either, and so if you missed

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Speaker 1: the three and a half, you might get a four.

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Speaker 1: It might bounce around for a couple of days because

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Speaker 1: the hook is really important. Wise, guys are taking the hook.

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Speaker 1: They still like the bills of plus three, but I

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Speaker 1: would keep an eye out forgetting the three and a

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Speaker 1: half or four. I'm thinking about putting a couple leans

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Speaker 1: on my house. It's my bet of the year. Better

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Speaker 1: the year. I don't say that a year better the

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Speaker 1: year of the year. And I'm talking of when you're

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Speaker 1: that confident. I love anyone is that confident. I love

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Speaker 1: Buffo Volumes. Okay, here's I think the lines are incredible

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Speaker 1: this week. Love Cleveland off of by minus two and

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Speaker 1: a half against Baltimore. Again, the more desperate team at home.

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Speaker 1: Baltimore is falling apart physically, Cleveland's actually getting healthy. And again,

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Speaker 1: if I think the coach is good, I think the

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Speaker 1: bye week matters more. I like Stefanski offensive coach. I

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Speaker 1: think right now Baltimore is broken and some of it's

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Speaker 1: just physical. I'm going to take Cleveland minus two and

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Speaker 1: a half. It's my second favorite bet of the week.

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Speaker 1: Sharper Square totally sharp, dude. You are rolland boom boom.

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Speaker 1: It's like you're a professional. You are well. I'm a

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Speaker 1: broadcasting professional, so I'm kind of a professional. Listen these days,

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Speaker 1: anyone in broadcasting is a betting professional. It's like it

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Speaker 1: goes hand in hees hand in hand. By the way,

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Speaker 1: I got three more games that I love I have.

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Speaker 1: Let me tell you you want me to tell you listen. Sure, sure,

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Speaker 1: nobody likes to know why they're writing more than you.

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Speaker 1: I'm trying to tell you why you're right? Yeah, Troy,

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Speaker 1: tell my wife all the time. Tell me more. Why

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Speaker 1: am I right? You're right? Here's why you're right? Number one.

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Speaker 1: I love John Harbaugh and his honesty. At they had

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Speaker 1: end of that Ravens game against the Steelers about why

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Speaker 1: they went for the two. Forget about the analytics. It's

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Speaker 1: like a one percent better play to go for the

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Speaker 1: two than to go for the tie in that spot.

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Speaker 1: He was just about, I don't have any players left.

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Speaker 1: Marlin Humphrey is down. He didn't have defensive backs to

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Speaker 1: go into overtime with The Ravens lead the league in

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Speaker 1: players on IR. They're down three of their four starting

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Speaker 1: defensive back backs. The Browns are coming off a bye.

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Speaker 1: They got healthier. I've heard reports some camps that Baker

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Speaker 1: Mayfield has looked really good in practice, But they also

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Speaker 1: played the Ravens before the bye, so they've essentially been

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Speaker 1: prepping for this team for almost a month. Meanwhile, the

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Speaker 1: Ravens are coming off like just such a physical game

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Speaker 1: where they are hurt even more. You've got hunt back

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Speaker 1: You've got Chub back. The defense is his healthy, has

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Speaker 1: been all year. Divisional game. We talked about this last

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Speaker 1: week with the Steelers and the Ravens. You get a

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Speaker 1: divisional game, especially in the AFC North, where a home

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Speaker 1: team is favored by more than three, you're taking the

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Speaker 1: under dog. You get the home team favorite by lesson three,

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Speaker 1: you're taking the favorite. All right, another game. I love

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Speaker 1: Arizona minus two and a half hosting the Rams. Listen

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Speaker 1: Van Jefferson is now they're Robert Woods. He's not the blocker.

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Speaker 1: They're not going to run the football as well without

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Speaker 1: Robert Woods unless they do, as Greg ko Sell said

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Speaker 1: this week, at another offensive lineman, which Sean McVay is

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Speaker 1: not prone to do, but he was able to do

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Speaker 1: it against Jacksonville. We have to come to terms with

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Speaker 1: what Arizona is. Arguably the best team in the league.

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Speaker 1: They don't have a lot of bad Sundays. This is

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Speaker 1: not an inconsistent team. This is not Buffalo, it's not

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Speaker 1: even Tampa. This is the best team in the league

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Speaker 1: nine out of ten Sundays. The Rams, as much as

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Speaker 1: I like them, they don't have the gas and the

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Speaker 1: firepower they lost in the offseason, their best tight end.

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Speaker 1: They lost Robert Woods, they lost Cam Akers. This offense

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Speaker 1: to little Smoke in mirrors, Matt Stafford's an upgrade. But

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Speaker 1: this is easy for me. I also think Zona is

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Speaker 1: battling for the number one seed. Love Zona minus two

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Speaker 1: and a half. So what did I just say? I

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Speaker 1: said Division no opponents, home team favored by less than

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Speaker 1: a field goal. You want to take the home team.

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Speaker 1: Here's something interesting, and this isn't to me. Is not

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Speaker 1: as black and white as the Browns Ravens game. The Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: While they may be the number one team in the

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Speaker 1: NFL right now, they're not a convincing number one team

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Speaker 1: every single week. It feels like they are just benefiting

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Speaker 1: so much from opponent turnovers and from recovering their own turnovers.

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Speaker 1: We saw it again this past week against the Bears.

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Speaker 1: Practically every drive they started was inside the Bears thirty

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Speaker 1: yard line, and even when they were driving Kyler Murley,

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Speaker 1: Kyler Murray fumbled the ball and recovered it himself. It's

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Speaker 1: another example of something that's been happening all years. So

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Speaker 1: there is that sort of stigma that they're not a

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Speaker 1: dominant number one team. The challenge here is that this

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Speaker 1: line opened at three and a half. The wise guys

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Speaker 1: love the Rams at three and a half. They love

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Speaker 1: the Rams at three. Now it's a two and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's actually now it's a two. So it's getting to

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Speaker 1: a point where you're going to half to bet on

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals at some point because the number is moving

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Speaker 1: so aggressively in their direction. I don't love the Cardinals here,

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Speaker 1: I missed the number on the Rams. I would have

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Speaker 1: bet the Rams at three and a half. I don't

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Speaker 1: love the Cardinals the way you do. Here's another game

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Speaker 1: I like. And this is a weird Matthey thing. So

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Speaker 1: just hear me out. So we all know the hooks.

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Speaker 1: Seven and a half, three and a half. We all

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Speaker 1: know the hooks and this stuff. Four Zoe is an

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Speaker 1: interesting number. Four is telling you Dallas is better than Washington.

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Speaker 1: And remember, now, if you look at Dak's numbers, he

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Speaker 1: is not the same quarterback without Amari Cooper. He's not.

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Speaker 1: He's kind of a five hundred quarterback without Amari. So

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Speaker 1: Amari comes off COVID and doesn't look particularly strong. Well,

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Speaker 1: what do we have now? Extra rest for Zeke, extra

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Speaker 1: rest for Amari. I like Washington, one of my few

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Speaker 1: favorites to cover this week. I like him a lot.

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Speaker 1: I think they're finally on the offensive side healthy. And

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Speaker 1: congratulations on Taylor Heineken. They've gone to his own coverage

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Speaker 1: in the last four weeks. Washington has benefited from that.

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Speaker 1: But this is still a very very limited offense against

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Speaker 1: the very potent offense that is now healthy. And whenever

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Speaker 1: I see a four, I tend to like the favorites.

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Speaker 1: The betting line is telling you this is a better

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Speaker 1: football team. I think Dallas gets healthy, I think they

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Speaker 1: win it, and I think they win it by a

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Speaker 1: touchdown or more. Sharper square. Well, that's square the Washington

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Speaker 1: football team. You mentioned math, so let's use another math term, regression, right, regression.

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Speaker 1: The Washington football team has won several weeks in a row.

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Speaker 1: Taylor Heineke has been playing better and better every week.

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Speaker 1: This defense has been playing better statistically since Chase Young

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Speaker 1: went out. And yet what you're seeing is that bookmakers

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Speaker 1: are not showing that improvement in the point spread because

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Speaker 1: they know with the Cowboys they can still post a

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Speaker 1: line that is significantly higher. They can shade it in

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys direction because that's where the public is going

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Speaker 1: to come. So Whise guys are taken the Washington football team.

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Speaker 1: They love the Washington football team. Here. They're hoping that

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Speaker 1: more money keeps coming in. On the Cowboys, They're hoping

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Speaker 1: this line actually creeps up a little bit higher and

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Speaker 1: they can get better than four. They can potentially get

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Speaker 1: that hook. This game has a lot of similarities to

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Speaker 1: when the Bucks came into d C a few weeks

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Speaker 1: ago and lost outright to the Washington football team. It's

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Speaker 1: that same kind of feeling that a lot of the

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Speaker 1: Wise guys have in terms of the analytics, in terms

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Speaker 1: of how this game is power rated. They really think

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Speaker 1: it should be a field goal game. So they're already

365
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Speaker 1: getting a point of value. They think they can give more. Okay,

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Speaker 1: this team, the Chargers, I think I'm six and o

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Speaker 1: on the Charger games. I bet against them mostly. That

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Speaker 1: was one of my bets of the week last week,

369
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Speaker 1: was taking the Chargers over Cincinnati. So I love the

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Speaker 1: New York Giants plus ten and a half. What the

371
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Speaker 1: Chargers did last week is one a lot of jump balls,

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Speaker 1: got a bunch of quirky breaks. That's not the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: not saying the Chargers weren't better than Cincinnati. But there

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Speaker 1: were a couple of bad reads by Herbert, a couple

375
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Speaker 1: of bad throws, a couple of underthrown jump balls, and

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Speaker 1: the Chargers won all of them. They got every tip

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Speaker 1: and every break. The Giants, Joe Judge is fighting for

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Speaker 1: his job. Daniel Jones is fighting for his career. This

379
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Speaker 1: team has talent. I think it's close. I've always had

380
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Speaker 1: a good beat on the Chargers. I love the Giants

381
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Speaker 1: plus ten and a half sharper square, totally sharp. And

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Speaker 1: what's interesting about this game? Agree with you on the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: That was if you are a better and you weren't

384
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Speaker 1: betting on the Chargers last week, then you haven't really

385
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Speaker 1: been paying attention. That was the exact spot to bet

386
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Speaker 1: on them, and they still try to give it away.

387
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Speaker 1: By the way, what's interesting about this game. We don't

388
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Speaker 1: know that Daniel Jones is playing because he's still suffering

389
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Speaker 1: from the injured neck. Mike Glennon is in the COVID protocol,

390
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Speaker 1: so it's very possible that the quarterback for this game

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Speaker 1: is Jake Frohm. And it gives you an indication of

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Speaker 1: how little Daniel Jones matters, how little Mike Glennon matters.

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Speaker 1: How little any quarterback on the Giants matters because the

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Speaker 1: line has barely moved and the wise guys are still

395
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Speaker 1: coming in and betting on the Giants. It's also worth

396
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Speaker 1: noting Keenan Allen started the week on the COVID list.

397
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Speaker 1: He's been cleared. Mike Williams is now on it, so

398
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Speaker 1: we don't actually know what's going on in that wide

399
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Speaker 1: receiver room. It could be a lot of changes as

400
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Speaker 1: we get to the game on Sunday, but fading the

401
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 1: Chargers as a really big favorite against the Giants team

402
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Speaker 1: that actually has a pretty good defensive line is is

403
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 1: not a bad move. Okay. I always give you a

404
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Speaker 1: couple of games that jump out to you. My favorite

405
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Speaker 1: player of the week is the Bill's second favorite Browns.

406
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Speaker 1: I do like the Cowboys, I love the Giants, I

407
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Speaker 1: love Arizona. Give me one or two that I have overlooked.

408
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Speaker 1: I did think San Francisco plus one and a half

409
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Speaker 1: at Cincinnati was really interesting to me because I think

410
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Speaker 1: if you look at Cincinnati, they're more of a rebuilding

411
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Speaker 1: team than we think. What they are is good about

412
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Speaker 1: every other Sunday, That's what Cincinnati is and that's what

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Speaker 1: a rebuilding team with talent at quarterback is. They're good

414
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Speaker 1: about every other Sunday. So I should probably go back

415
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Speaker 1: and pursue the Bengals. But I think San Francisco's more desperate,

416
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Speaker 1: and I think San Francisco's a better team. And by

417
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Speaker 1: the way, say what you want about Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy Garoppolo,

418
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Speaker 1: if the Niners said we're going to move him in

419
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Speaker 1: the off season, there's nine teams and I'm not counting

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Speaker 1: Atlanta that need a quarterback. It would get a late

421
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Speaker 1: first or a second round pick. I'm sorry, he throws

422
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Speaker 1: a good ball. I would take the Niners plus the points.

423
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Speaker 1: Is that one of the two I overlooked. I was

424
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 1: going to mention it that line has actually moved. This

425
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:45,400
Speaker 1: is probably the most bet professional game of the week.

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00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 1: You know, I mentioned this every week when we do

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00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 1: the podcast. I'll do my podcast The Favorites on the

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00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 1: Volume Network with Professional better Simon Hunter. We'll do it

429
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, We'll do it on Thursday. Between Tuesday and Thursday,

430
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 1: Simon will get dozens of calls from his colleagues in

431
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 1: the professional betting space to criticize or support the decisions

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00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,479
Speaker 1: that we were making on Tuesday. The game that got

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00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 1: the most conversation going was this one, because he and

434
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:14,639
Speaker 1: I were leaning Bengals on Tuesday and people called and

435
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 1: just came in so hard on the Niners. And this

436
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 1: line subsequently, since we talked about it on Tuesday, has

437
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 1: now moved and the Niners a favor. And that's a

438
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 1: pretty big move from about one and a half to

439
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:29,199
Speaker 1: now Niners minus one, and it's still heading in that direction.

440
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 1: The Niners are a better scene like their top ten

441
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 1: in Dvoa, which is you know, we've talked about it's

442
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 1: sort of that fancy way of measuring every team against

443
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 1: their strength of schedule on every single play. Since he

444
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 1: is nineteenth Bush by the way, Joe Burrows hurt too,

445
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 1: and right, that's a huge, huge deal. We don't know

446
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 1: the status of Joe Burrow. It Is it a strained

447
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 1: pinky finger, is it a broken two fingers on his

448
00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 1: right hand that sort of helped him grip the ball.

449
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 1: We just don't know. And then so you think about

450
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 1: also you mentioned since is one of those teams that

451
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,399
Speaker 1: is inconsistent. Right, they're inconsistent because their offensive line is

452
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 1: so bad and you saw that against the Chargers. They

453
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 1: like every time they starting to get close, the Chargers

454
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:11,959
Speaker 1: could find a way to get to Joe Burrow Sancisco.

455
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 1: That's where they thrive, right. They are so much better

456
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 1: in the trenches and their number one in the red

457
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 1: zone in offense. So to me, you've got a better

458
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:24,440
Speaker 1: team in San Francisco. That is a very short favorite.

459
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: You're not getting the best of the number anymore. But

460
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 1: I still think the Niners are the better team. Another game,

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00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: another game that I want to talk about. Okay, throw

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00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:37,920
Speaker 1: it out there and all guess. Okay, Raiders plus nine

463
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:43,680
Speaker 1: and a half versus the Chiefs. Oh boy, Now, last

464
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 1: week I went with Denver plus nine against the Chiefs

465
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 1: and got burned in the end. So I'm fairly bitter

466
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 1: about that. Why everybody likes the Raiders. Let it, do

467
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 1: not think about Do not let emotion dictate what you

468
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 1: do this week. Yeah, but I'm full of emotion, so

469
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,159
Speaker 1: what the hell do I do? Don't be? Don't be.

470
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 1: This is part of the lesson. This is how you

471
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:06,439
Speaker 1: get your professional better plaque. Yeah but this is all right,

472
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:09,120
Speaker 1: Go ahead, go on, go on that. That's a boy.

473
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 1: If that's how you get a plaque. That's no plaque.

474
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 1: I walk forget everything, forget all the fields. Colin, you

475
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 1: can only be a professional if you have no feels. Listen.

476
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 1: I feel badly because last week I feel like I

477
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 1: might have had a play a part in convincing you

478
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:30,679
Speaker 1: to take the Broncos by the way, I still contend

479
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 1: it was the right play, even though I lost it.

480
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 1: Can I can I read you something? Can I can

481
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: I read you something? Right now? I'm going to go

482
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 1: to unless it's Othello. I'm not into a Shakespeare I

483
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 1: will not read you. I'm going to read our version.

484
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 1: We're not that smart. I'm going to read you our

485
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 1: version of Othello. Okay. Last week, last week against the

486
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs, the Denver Bronchos had north of four

487
00:28:56,920 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: hundred yards yep. The Kansi. The Chiefs had two hundred

488
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 1: sixty seven. They had one hundred and fifty four rushing yards.

489
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 1: The Kansity Chiefs had eighty nine. They had more passing yards,

490
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 1: they had more yards per attempt, they had more yards

491
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 1: per play, they had more first downs. I knew I

492
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 1: was on the right side. Like, I don't feel better.

493
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 1: You know, when I lose a bat and I'm on

494
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 1: the right side. Like I knew Denver was the right side.

495
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 1: When that game ended, I was like, give me a

496
00:29:19,080 --> 00:29:21,719
Speaker 1: fricking break. They controlled most of the game. They had

497
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 1: a twenty twenty play drive that resulted in no points.

498
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 1: They had a pick six. They seriously they had a

499
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 1: scoop and score that everybody saw was that was called

500
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,920
Speaker 1: back that everybody knew was the bad call. All right,

501
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 1: So they were equal to or better than the Chiefs.

502
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 1: And the Raiders have more weapons than the Broncos. And

503
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:48,479
Speaker 1: the Chiefs have not covered big numbers. Obviously they did

504
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 1: last week. It's a it's not like a statement in totality,

505
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 1: but they haven't proven it. Like last week was not

506
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 1: the side to be on the Chiefs. That was like

507
00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 1: a oh my god, I'm getting away with something here.

508
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 1: So I'm still on the Raiders. Here's the one thing

509
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 1: that makes me nervous. Last week, the Bronchos were a huge,

510
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:17,760
Speaker 1: huge public dog, meaning that all the like everybody loved

511
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 1: the Bronchos is huge dogs. Same thing this week with

512
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 1: the Raiders scares me a little bit. Just well, maybe

513
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 1: maybe the public is smart, right, let me let me

514
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 1: scale back that opinion. Yeah, I forget I ever said that,

515
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 1: you know what the public. Here's the thing though, and

516
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 1: we talked about this, like with betting generally, now public

517
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 1: is definitely getting smarter, like it's harder, Like they know

518
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 1: more than they used to. There's more people coming into

519
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 1: the markets because it's legal, and more places who are

520
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 1: moving numbers, who understand how numbers work, who understand why

521
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 1: lines are posted the way they are. Sometimes you get

522
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 1: an opportunity, sometimes you don't. But definitely smarter than they

523
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 1: used to be. All right, Melman, good talking to you, buddy.

524
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 1: Have a great weekend, you brother. Take care. Chad Millman,

525
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer, Action Network. Check out our YouTube page,

526
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 1: check out our Instagram rate review, subscribe all sorts of

527
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 1: stuff the volume