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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Blue

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Speaker 1: Big Day. Bake you at podcast KI Morning. It's Monday,

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Speaker 1: the third of November. I'm Caroline Hepkot in London.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Stephen Carolin Brussels. Coming up today. Oil prices

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Speaker 2: rise as OPEC Plus announces plans to pause output increases

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Speaker 2: for the start of next year.

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Speaker 1: The UK's Chancellor, Rachel Reeves considers a range of tax

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Speaker 1: hikes targeting the country's wealthiest.

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Speaker 2: Plus how China's efforts to unlock a huge African iron

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Speaker 2: ore deposit risk upending the global market.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: The price of oil has risen for a fourth day

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Speaker 2: after OPEK Plus announced plans to pause output increases at

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Speaker 2: the start of next year. The group and its allies

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Speaker 2: say they'll raise production by about one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 2: seven thousand barrels a day in December before taking a

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Speaker 2: break from January to March. The move comes as market

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Speaker 2: contends with growing concerns about oversupply that have driven the

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Speaker 2: price of brand down by around ten percent over the

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Speaker 2: past three months. Here's the view of vandanah Hari, a

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Speaker 2: Vander Insights.

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Speaker 3: We are probably in an oversupply situation, but how much

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Speaker 3: over supply, I think the jury is still out on that.

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Speaker 3: And on the flip side, you have supply risk premium.

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Speaker 3: We just come back in a major way into the

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Speaker 3: market after the US and EU sanctions on Russia a

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Speaker 3: couple of weeks.

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Speaker 2: Ago, Vandana Harry referring there to sanctions on Russian oil exporters.

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Speaker 2: As traders tell Bloomberg, the restrictions are now prompting Chinese

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Speaker 2: refiners to avoid shipments from the country.

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Speaker 1: Here in the UK, a thirty two year old man

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Speaker 1: is being held on suspicion of attempted murder after a

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Speaker 1: mass stabbing attack on a train over the weekend. The

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Speaker 1: attack happens on a high speed service from Doncaster to London,

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Speaker 1: leaving eleven people in hospital and some with life threatening injuries.

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Speaker 1: The train was stopped at Huntington in Cambridgeshire. Audrey McAdam

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Speaker 1: is the town's mayor.

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Speaker 4: This is just out of my mind. I'm totally out

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Speaker 4: of it at the moment. I'm sorry. I'm sorry to

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Speaker 4: say I cannot think straight at the moment. It's something.

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Speaker 4: It's a horror film, complete horror.

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Speaker 1: Audrey McAdam speaking there as Police say that the motive

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Speaker 1: for the attack remains unclear. Authorities say there is nothing

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Speaker 1: to suggest it was terrorism related.

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Speaker 2: The Chancellor of Rachel Reeves could target the country's wealthiest

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Speaker 2: with exit and mansion taxes in her upcoming budget. The

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Speaker 2: measures are on a long list of possible options being

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Speaker 2: considered by the Treasury to fill the fiscal hole. AR

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Speaker 2: Chief UK economist Dan Hansen says the Chancellor faces a

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Speaker 2: challenging outlook.

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Speaker 5: I think Rachel Reeves listening to her her rhetoric around

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Speaker 5: this budget. She's very conscious of the inflation story now

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Speaker 5: and I think probably in hindsight, wouldn't have gone through

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Speaker 5: with some of the policies she went through in October

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Speaker 5: last year in the budget last year because there has

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Speaker 5: been an inflationary impact.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's chief UK economist Dan Hansen there Bloomberg understands that

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Speaker 2: the Chancellor will only decide which tax risers to implement

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Speaker 2: once she receives the final fiscal forecast from the Budget watchdog.

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Speaker 2: The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates

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Speaker 2: at four percent on Thursday, slowing the pace of policy

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Speaker 2: easing that it began last August.

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Speaker 1: Now US President Donald Trump has threatened military action against

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Speaker 1: Islamist extremists in Nigeria. In a post to his Truth

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Speaker 1: social platform on Saturday, Trump also threatened an immediate cutoff

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Speaker 1: in aid to Africa's most populous nation. The move comes

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Speaker 1: after the US present said that he was designating Nigeria

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Speaker 1: a Country of Particular Concern because of worries about the

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Speaker 1: safety of Christians. This was last week. Nigerian President to

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Speaker 1: Bolah Ahmed Tinubu rejected President Trump's criticism, saying on social

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Speaker 1: media the country is a democracy governed by constitutional guarantees

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Speaker 1: of religious liberty. Tinubu has been under pressure this year

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Speaker 1: from a rising Islamist insurgency in northeastern Nigeria.

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Speaker 2: China will effectively suspend the implementation of new export controls

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Speaker 2: on rare earth metals and end investigations into American companies

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Speaker 2: in the semiconductor's supply chain. The White House issued a

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Speaker 2: fact sheet over the weekend with some details of the

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Speaker 2: trade pack degreed last week by Presidents Donald Trump and Chootingping.

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Speaker 3: Both.

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Speaker 2: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has warned that Washington must

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Speaker 2: still be cautious.

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Speaker 6: I think and I hope after the agreement and the

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Speaker 6: good will between President She and President Trump in Korea

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Speaker 6: that we can depend on them to be more reliable partners,

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Speaker 6: and the rest of the world can depend on them,

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Speaker 6: but we can't take their chance. We don't want to

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Speaker 6: decouple with China, but we're going to have to.

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Speaker 2: Do risk, the US Treasury Secretary Scott Besslon speaking there. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: China's manufacturing activity expanded less than forecast in October, according

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Speaker 2: to a private survey, adding to concerns about the economy's

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Speaker 2: slowing momentum.

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Speaker 1: Now to European companies, which are proving surprisingly resilient, with

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Speaker 1: their results showing that they're navigating US tariffs a lot

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Speaker 1: better than anticipated. Bloomberg's Mihul Kubala has more Now.

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Speaker 7: It turns out tariffs aren't biting European exporters as hard

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Speaker 7: as many feared. A Goldman Sachs basket of stocks most

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Speaker 7: exposed to the American levies, names like BMW Ordidas jumped

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Speaker 7: six percent in October, double that of the broader stocks

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Speaker 7: six hundred. Some firms, including Hermez and Unilever, even credited

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Speaker 7: sales growth in the United States for their ability to

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Speaker 7: beat estimates the optimism is showing up in forecasts. Bloomberg

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Speaker 7: Intelligence data shows earnings on u ro's key benchmark could

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Speaker 7: grow by double digits next year. In Brussels, Michalcobola, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: And simbreaking earnings news this morning. Profits at Ryanair beat

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Speaker 2: expectations in their second quarter after tax figures came in

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Speaker 2: at one point seven two billion euros versus expectations of

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Speaker 2: one point sixty seven billion euros. Passenger numbers for the

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Speaker 2: first half of the year we're broadly in line with

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Speaker 2: expectations at one hundred and nineteen million. Ryaner now sees

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Speaker 2: its fully aar customer numbers at two hundred and seven million.

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Speaker 2: That's an increase from its last forecast of two hundred

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Speaker 2: and six million, slightly above what markets were expecting.

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Speaker 1: And those are our top stories for you this morning. Well,

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Speaker 1: November in the market begins with some gains for stocks.

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Speaker 1: We have the All country World Index up by tenth

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Speaker 1: of one percent. We've also got stock futures for Europe

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Speaker 1: up two tens and US stock futures also pointing higher.

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Speaker 1: Oil has been gaining a six tens of one percent

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Speaker 1: half of break creed futures at sixty five dollars eighteen

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Speaker 1: the bow after the OPEC plus decision over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: US yields are steady this morning at four sports zero

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Speaker 1: seven For the ten year. Gold has been fluctuating, but

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Speaker 1: currently it is up by three tenths of one percent.

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Speaker 1: Iron ore and copper are down on concerns about China's

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Speaker 1: economic outlook, and the dollar this morning on the Bloemboog

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Speaker 1: Dollar Sport Index is weaker a tenth of one percent.

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Speaker 1: Those are the markets.

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Speaker 2: In a moment will bring you more on OPEC plus's

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Speaker 2: latest moves on oil supplies, plus what a massive new

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Speaker 2: iron ore mine in Guinea means for the global market

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Speaker 2: and for the country's economy. But another story that we've

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Speaker 2: been reading this morning the season finale of The Great

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Speaker 2: British Breakoff as tomorrow in case you didn't have it

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Speaker 2: already marked in your diaries, and our colleague Georgia Hall

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Speaker 2: has been writing about one of the many side industries

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Speaker 2: that have sprung up around this TV show, and that's betting.

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Speaker 2: She writes about the vast and potentially lucrative online betting

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Speaker 2: market that exists around the series. Apparently there you can

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Speaker 2: get odds and everything from who will get a handshake

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Speaker 2: from Paul Hollywood one of the judges, who will win

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Speaker 2: the technical challenge, and of course who's going to win

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Speaker 2: the overall show at the end as well. Apparently there's

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Speaker 2: been quite a shift in odds as the series goes on.

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Speaker 1: I love cake, don't get me wrong, but I'm quite

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Speaker 1: amused by this ballooning betting story that seems a bit

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Speaker 1: sort of harder to swallow. I wonder who is it

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Speaker 1: out there who's betting on cake baking. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I always am a little more concerned about in the

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Speaker 1: UK just how many people are betting. The big survey

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Speaker 1: that came out earlier this month of betting a lot

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Speaker 1: of people two point seven percent of people in the

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Speaker 1: UK have got a betting problem apparently. But anyway, cake

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Speaker 1: is perhaps a more fun side to betting, maybe, yeah.

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Speaker 2: I mean, look, it's the difference as well with this

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Speaker 2: market which is only growing in the US because of

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Speaker 2: course betting markets have only opened up in recent years

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Speaker 2: as well. So it's very interesting to watch it. It's

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Speaker 2: playing it in different sides of the Atlantic as well.

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Speaker 2: Quite a problem betting on this program because it's pre

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Speaker 2: recorded as well, so people could have insider knowledge as

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Speaker 2: to who has actually won, but it is being seen

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Speaker 2: as sort of a community building around a Matchlove TV

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Speaker 2: show as well as he can rejoin his peace at

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com and we'll put a Linkdage in our

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Speaker 2: podcast show notes.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's talk about the oil markets. They face a

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Speaker 1: great deal of uncertainty. Crude prices have been falling this

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Speaker 1: year and on paper, there is expected to be a

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Speaker 1: big supply glot next year. So on Sunday, Plus said

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Speaker 1: that it plans to pause increases in output from its

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Speaker 1: members for the first quarter of next year. Stephen Stepchinski

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Speaker 1: leads our team covering energy in Asian He joins us

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Speaker 1: now for more. Stephen, good morning. What is OPEC's strategy

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Speaker 1: because there is usually a gap between the quotas what

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Speaker 1: they say they're going to do and then what is

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Speaker 1: actually produced.

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Speaker 8: No, that's correct, Actually, so the OPEC Plus has been

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Speaker 8: increasing output for much of this year, actually more than

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Speaker 8: the market was expecting them to in terms of what

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Speaker 8: they're saying on paper. Now, you're right, in reality, they're

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Speaker 8: not always hitting those targets. Some country are struggling to

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Speaker 8: increase their output to hit that level. In fact, one

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Speaker 8: of the few countries that can actually really meaningfully increase

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Speaker 8: output and has a lot of spare capacity is Saudi Arabia,

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Speaker 8: the de facto leader of OPEK itself. Now, in terms

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Speaker 8: of what happened with this meeting, I think one thing

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Speaker 8: is is Russia. Russia is a member of OPEK plus,

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Speaker 8: and just recently we had the Trump administration slap sanctions

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Speaker 8: on two of the largest exporters that was ross neftin

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Speaker 8: look oil, and then we have the stories from last

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Speaker 8: week and then this week about Indian buyers and Chinese

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Speaker 8: buyers who traditionally were buying Russian oil. They're they're looking

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Speaker 8: at perhaps shifting their supply away from the sanctioned barrels

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Speaker 8: in order to avoid any sort of hit from from

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Speaker 8: the West or from the US for importing uh that oil.

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Speaker 8: And so because of that, it is likely seen that

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Speaker 8: maybe Russia in the OPEK plus meetings had pushed for

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Speaker 8: a pause because they're unable to increase their output, especially

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Speaker 8: if at the moment buyers are kind of scrambling to

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Speaker 8: move elsewhere. Now this could be digested, Maybe there will

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Speaker 8: be more dark fleet ships taking that supply, Maybe other

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Speaker 8: refineries will be willing to risk retaliation from the West.

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Speaker 8: But at the moment, I think it does make sense

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Speaker 8: that OPEK plus would would move for a weight and

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Speaker 8: see situation, especially since, as you know, when you look

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Speaker 8: at the macro situation for oil, we are facing a

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Speaker 8: bit of a glot for twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, there's several of those dynamics courses you say playing

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Speaker 2: out in the market too. There is a meating coming

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Speaker 2: up though, between Donald Trump and the Saudi crime friends

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Speaker 2: Muhammed Ben Salmon as well. What could emerge from that

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Speaker 2: that might be of interest to the oil markets.

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Speaker 8: Well, certainly if you can see some sort of OPEK

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Speaker 8: movement to increase output or anything there would be would

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Speaker 8: be quite interesting. Now, of course, it's it's really unlikely

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Speaker 8: that that could happen because you had these OPEK plus

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Speaker 8: pause and they are working in unison. That being said,

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Speaker 8: you know you could see some broad general statements from

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Speaker 8: both sides saying that they're working to really balance the market.

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Speaker 8: I think when you look at what Trump wants, certainly

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Speaker 8: he wants low gasoline prices. He doesn't want to shake

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Speaker 8: up the market, and while the movement to sanctioned Russia

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Speaker 8: has to put pressure on Moscow to end the war

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Speaker 8: in Ukraine. He also doesn't want a surge an oil

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Speaker 8: prices because that will hurt his base. He I think

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Speaker 8: Trump is really looking at a gasoline more than any

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Speaker 8: other president perhaps before, in terms of where the prices are,

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Speaker 8: and he cares a lot about it. So in the

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Speaker 8: past he has brokeered agreements to a degree with open

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Speaker 8: plus to increase output. Now whether he's going to be

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Speaker 8: able to do that very unclear, but I think any

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Speaker 8: sort of broad agreement or view on the market, especially

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Speaker 8: later for twenty twenty six, would be interesting in those meetings.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Stephen, thank you so much for being with us.

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Speaker 1: Steven Stepchinsky leads our team covering energy in Asia. Stay

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Speaker 1: with us. More from Bloomberg Daybaqube coming up after this.

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Speaker 2: China is about to unlock a huge African iron ore

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Speaker 2: deposit that risks upending the global market. The size and

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Speaker 2: richness of the Simandu deposit in Guinea could shift the

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Speaker 2: industry's parodynamics and help to transform the country's economy. Our

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Speaker 2: metals and mining reporter William Klause joins us now from

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Speaker 2: More will tell us for us about the scale of

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Speaker 2: Simandu and its potential impact on the global iron or market. Hi,

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Speaker 2: good morning, Yeah.

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Speaker 9: So Samandu in Guinea is a really famous name in

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Speaker 9: the mining world. It's a very large iron ore resource

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Speaker 9: in a remote mountainous part of West Africa, which Bloomberg

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Speaker 9: was able to visit in September. It's often described as

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Speaker 9: the largest untapped iron ore deposit in the world. So

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Speaker 9: Samandu finally entering the supply chain after all of these

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Speaker 9: years is a really important development for the steel industry.

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Speaker 9: Iron ores used to make steel because over the next

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Speaker 9: two and a half years, the project's owners, Rio Tinto

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Speaker 9: and the winning consortium will increase their combined production to

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Speaker 9: one hundred and twenty million tons a year. That's equivalent

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Speaker 9: of about five percent of total global output last year.

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Speaker 9: And it's important for China's steel industry in particular because

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Speaker 9: Rio Tinto used to hold the rights to the entire

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Speaker 9: Samandi deposit, but today only has a quarter share and

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Speaker 9: most of the project is owned by Chinese companies. And

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Speaker 9: this comes at a time when China, which is by

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Speaker 9: far the world's biggest steel producer, is trying to gain

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Speaker 9: more influence over the price of iron ore and to

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Speaker 9: curb the power of foreign mining companies like BHP and

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Speaker 9: Rio Tinto. This massive news supply of high grade mainly

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Speaker 9: Chinese iron, Chinese owned iron ore will help China with

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Speaker 9: that endeavor.

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Speaker 1: Yes, that will be very important given I mean Rio

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Speaker 1: Tinto has been involved in the project for almost thirty years.

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Speaker 1: But as you say, the Chinese firm so important, SIMANDU

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Speaker 1: then finally going to start actually exporting on or in

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Speaker 1: the next month or so, I mean, what actually brought

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Speaker 1: them over the finish line then, when this project has

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Speaker 1: been in the works for so long.

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Speaker 9: Two key turning points I'd say, first in late twenty

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Speaker 9: nineteen when this Chinese Singaporean group Winning Consortium was awarded

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Speaker 9: fifty percent of the projects that had been taken from

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Speaker 9: Rio Tinto. That development provided real momentum for the project,

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Speaker 9: since Winning was really committed to moving fast and at scale,

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Speaker 9: and all of those massive costs on infrastructure could now

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Speaker 9: be shared. And the second really important moment was mid

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Speaker 9: twenty twenty two when the Guineian government pushed the two

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Speaker 9: groups to work together and form a joint venture and

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Speaker 9: despite being very different companies, and that agreement could be

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Speaker 9: considered like the final hurdle finally being cleared and unlocking

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Speaker 9: this investment that topped twenty billion dollars.

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