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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast. Pot all right,

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Speaker 1: here we go fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five,

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Speaker 1: Horny Coty five fifty.

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Speaker 2: And the kick as block the college football world stun us,

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Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, he stumbled and football the latter turn

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Speaker 2: a counter on the job. Don't you believe? Table off

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Speaker 2: the field to night. It's not the sides of the

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Speaker 2: dog in the fighting. It's the side of the fight

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Speaker 2: in the dog.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. This is

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Speaker 1: the group of five deep dive. College Football is back.

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Speaker 1: This is not a drill. We have games to discuss.

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Speaker 1: We are less than one hundred hours away from the

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Speaker 1: kickoff to the twenty five season. On My Calvary's I'm

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Speaker 1: joined by my BBOC co host Duck to break down

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Speaker 1: everything that Week zero has to offer in the G

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Speaker 1: five lands and a quick formatting note for our season upcoming.

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Speaker 1: How this is all going to break down in the fall.

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Speaker 1: Each week we're going to try to deliver as many

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Speaker 1: winners as possible to you, dear listener, but things are

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Speaker 1: going to go a little bit differently in terms of

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Speaker 1: our packaging. We're doubling our best bets from two to four,

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Speaker 1: so you're going to get two from each of us.

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Speaker 1: We're also going to introduce a pair of new segments,

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Speaker 1: our two minute drills and our four minute offense. Our

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Speaker 1: two minute drills are going to be timed, going to

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Speaker 1: give an opportunity for us to lay out the rest

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Speaker 1: of our cards. We're also going to have a timeout

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Speaker 1: in our back pocket to expand that two minute drill

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Speaker 1: by thirty seconds. But both of us we're just going

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Speaker 1: to machine gun through the bottom of our card to

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Speaker 1: be able to maximize the amount of picksel we're giving you.

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Speaker 1: We're also going to have an opportunity to go through

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Speaker 1: what we're calling the four minute offense. We read the feedback,

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Speaker 1: we get, the emails we hear from our producers in

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Speaker 1: our production meetings. People always want to spotlight on the

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Speaker 1: G five game of the week. I couldn't more. We're

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Speaker 1: going to be able to have a little bit of

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Speaker 1: space to be able to explore every single angle, the

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Speaker 1: historical angles, the weather, the coaching, be able to deep

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Speaker 1: dive some of these games, even if neither one of

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Speaker 1: us has an official play, if it's just leans only,

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Speaker 1: or if it's just to give a spotlight to a

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Speaker 1: game that deserves it. That's what we're going to do.

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Speaker 1: We're also going to be debuting a new opening segments

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Speaker 1: at the beginning of next week with our Week one preview,

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Speaker 1: where we're going to just sound off. You guys have

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Speaker 1: the bad beat hotline. This is our opportunity to rip

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Speaker 1: the coaches, the refs, the players, everyone that screwed us

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Speaker 1: out of being able to cash at the window. And

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Speaker 1: also there's going to be some positive sound offs, you know,

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Speaker 1: the guys who are our G five heroes who are

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Speaker 1: coming in strong, but just exploring the space there, expanding

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Speaker 1: the scope of what we can talk about at the top.

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Speaker 1: We know this is in a recap show, but we

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Speaker 1: want to make sure that we're not missing anything that's

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Speaker 1: truly monumental in the G five gambling space. In terms

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Speaker 1: of timing, last note here, we'll be able to release

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Speaker 1: this G five Deep Dive earlier this week, but for

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Speaker 1: Week one, we're going to start moving into that regular

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Speaker 1: cadence of first thing Wednesday morning the episode. So when

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Speaker 1: you're updating your podcast feed and you're looking for the

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Speaker 1: BBOC and specifically the Group of five Deep Dive, they're

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Speaker 1: going to come in on Wednesday mornings. All right, all

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Speaker 1: of that table setting set aside, It's time to talk

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Speaker 1: best bets Week zero. Duck fire away with your first

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Speaker 1: play sun right on the money.

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Speaker 2: It's a touchdown that was a total BULLSEYE.

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Speaker 3: Went into Idaho State versus UNLV over sixty two and

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Speaker 3: a half. I played this game this morning, Monday morning.

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Speaker 3: I'd play it all the way up to sixty five

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Speaker 3: and a half. Dan Mullen is going to bring in

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Speaker 3: a highly sophisticated offensive system. We will likely see him

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Speaker 3: use the quarterback in the run game with Calandria and

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Speaker 3: alex Orgy in addition to Jayden Thomas, who popped off

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Speaker 3: last season for nine hundred and eighteen yards and six

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Speaker 3: yards of carry on the ground. I fully expect UNLV

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Speaker 3: to be humming on the ground this in this week.

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Speaker 3: Three hundred rushing yards would not surprise me. Idaho State

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Speaker 3: was one hundred and twenty first nationally and FCS last season,

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Speaker 3: surrendering two hundred and fifty three yards per game on

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Speaker 3: the ground and five point two yards per carry, and

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Speaker 3: all five of their defensive linemen are gone from last

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Speaker 3: season's bunch, so they're going through a full rebuild on

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Speaker 3: the defensive line just really going to be a struggle

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Speaker 3: for Idaho State. UNLV also really needs to kind of

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Speaker 3: run their stuff deep into the second half. Here is

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Speaker 3: I think they need to see what they have at receiver,

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Speaker 3: and they need to generate some continuity in the passing

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Speaker 3: game with both quarterbacks before they hit the road and

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Speaker 3: then see UCLA come in. So there's definitely some motivation

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Speaker 3: to kind of get those meaningful reps late in the

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Speaker 3: second half, even in a game that might have a

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Speaker 3: wide margin. Idaho State secondary last season sixty three percent

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Speaker 3: completion percentage surrendered with a nineteen to three touchdown to

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Speaker 3: interception ratio, and they only return one starter in that

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Speaker 3: defensive secondary. It is going to be atrocious for Idaho

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Speaker 3: State defensively. Yet again, Idaho State, there's actually a couple

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Speaker 3: things here to like offensively for the Bengals this season.

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Speaker 3: Jordan Cook returns at quarterback. He was hurt last season

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Speaker 3: after the opener, but he returns. They're gonna throw the

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Speaker 3: ball at a two to one ratio, and truly I

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Speaker 3: expect Idaho State to really abandon the run game early.

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Speaker 3: Four of the six top receivers are back for Idaho State.

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Speaker 3: You're gonna have a motivation for UNLV to figure out

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Speaker 3: some things that they really need to work on offensively

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Speaker 3: deep into the second half. Idaho States defense is atrocious,

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Speaker 3: so I think we'll see UNLV maybe salt away the

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Speaker 3: last four minutes, but they won't start that vanilla offense

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Speaker 3: procedure early in the fourth quarter of a wide margin

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Speaker 3: like many teams might. So you definitely have some motivation

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Speaker 3: here to keep running your stuff, to get some meaningful

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Speaker 3: reps for both quarterbacks, and to develop continuity with this

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Speaker 3: receiver group, which I think will be really critically important

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Speaker 3: as UNLV gets into the meat and potatoes of their schedule.

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Speaker 3: I think we're gonna see points of plenty in this game,

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Speaker 3: So go on the high side. Sixty five and a half.

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Speaker 1: Time for my first best bet of the twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five season, going over in Sam Houston against Western Kentucky.

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Speaker 2: The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, the Pride of the Commonwealth.

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Speaker 1: Oh no, no, hell no, Dune, Oh no, hell no,

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Speaker 1: it's been popping around the low sixties. I'd play it

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Speaker 1: up to sixty four and a half. We talked a

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Speaker 1: lot about coaching changes, scheme changes, the whiplash element that

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Speaker 1: some of these teams at the G five level have experienced. Well,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about just how crazy that's going to be.

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Speaker 1: For Sam Houston, Casey Keeler, a beloved coach, the most

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Speaker 1: important coach in program history, wins him an FCS national title,

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Speaker 1: shepherds them through the transition to the FBS. They end

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Speaker 1: up with ten wins last season, but it was all

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Speaker 1: built around a ball control offense and a salty defense.

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Speaker 1: If you look at what they were able to accomplish

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Speaker 1: last season, they were twenty second nationally in average time

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Speaker 1: of possession, tenth and run percentage, and the defense was

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Speaker 1: top twenty five and so many key metrics yards allowed,

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Speaker 1: red zone, scoring, takeaways. So when you put it all together,

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Speaker 1: it didn't surprise anyone that with all of that being

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Speaker 1: available to them, they just need to quarterback play and

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Speaker 1: they got enough of it. Now, all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: Casey Killer's off to Temple. Cassidy, their defensive coordinator, who

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Speaker 1: was an incredible defensive coordinator, has been poached by in

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Speaker 1: state North Texas, and the replacements we'll see if they're successful.

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Speaker 1: But for one thing, I know, it's just going to

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Speaker 1: be a different brand of football. Phil Longo and his

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Speaker 1: dairy raid in Madison, Wisconsin was a flop for two years.

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Speaker 1: But he comes in here. He's going to immediately up

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Speaker 1: the tempo. They're going to potentially put Hunter Watson in

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Speaker 1: a position to be more successful statistically. He's someone who

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Speaker 1: is a great dual threat. And by the way, this

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Speaker 1: Western Kentucky defense lost its top twelve tacklers. On the

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Speaker 1: other side of it, Freddie aut Autrey Lindsay is the

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Speaker 1: new DC. As I mentioned the drop off from Cassidy

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Speaker 1: to him. This is a guy who's never been a

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Speaker 1: full time defensive coordinator as a play caller. He has

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Speaker 1: a few instances where he was an interim DC, but

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Speaker 1: other than that, he's been a defense backs coach who's

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Speaker 1: at NC State. This is a big move up against

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Speaker 1: a Western Kentucky offense that basically is playing the hits again.

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Speaker 1: Helton had that great success four years ago going down

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Speaker 1: to the FCS ranks, pulling everybody out of that historically

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Speaker 1: good Houston Baptist offense brings Kittley, the OC brings Zappi

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Speaker 1: brings his number one target. Zappi sets the FBS record

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Speaker 1: for yardage and passing touchdowns in the season and since

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Speaker 1: then he's been looking to rekindle that magic. So he's

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Speaker 1: just going back to it. Gets Rick Bowie and his

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Speaker 1: quarterback Maverick mcgiver for Ablene Christian, they finally punched a

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Speaker 1: ticket to the FCS playoffs for the first time in

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Speaker 1: school history. They ran an IndyCar tempo. They went over

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Speaker 1: a thousand plays that they ran on offense, and because

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Speaker 1: of that, that left their defense on the field lot.

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Speaker 1: They were one of the few teams at the FCS

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Speaker 1: level that didn't go super deep in the playoffs to

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Speaker 1: face a thousand offensive snaps on the other side of things.

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Speaker 1: So when I look at this, I look at a

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Speaker 1: Western Kentucky defense that could be gassed. And by the way,

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Speaker 1: they couldn't stop the run at all. Last season. They

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Speaker 1: were one of the few teams in the last five

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Speaker 1: years of college football that gave up over three thousand

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Speaker 1: brushing yards. This is a real bad recipe if you're

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Speaker 1: looking for stops. The only other thing that I see

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Speaker 1: in this is I just think the public and sportsbooks

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Speaker 1: are slow to adjust. All the metrics for Sam Houston

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Speaker 1: last year are basically throwing this off. I saw on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: If you just punched in the numbers for their metrics,

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Speaker 1: their tempo, their pace, this total should be closer to fifty.

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Speaker 1: Obviously that's not the case. I honestly would probably play

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Speaker 1: this up to sixty seven and a half. I think

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Speaker 1: that's how far off this is by a full touchdown.

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Speaker 1: Maverick McIver is going to cook in this game. Katie

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Speaker 1: Hutchinson throwing into a Sam Houston defense that they just

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Speaker 1: have so many green players there, they have so little continuity.

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Speaker 1: They also have a defensive coordinator that needs to get

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Speaker 1: a sea legs. This to me is screaming shootout. So

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Speaker 1: I'm going to go over. At this point, I believe

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Speaker 1: it's sixty one and a half out in the market.

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Speaker 1: Do you agree with that one? I know Colin Wilson

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Speaker 1: from the BBOC universe is already all over this one.

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Speaker 1: This is why it's my best bet. What do you

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Speaker 1: say about this total?

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Speaker 3: Yep, we're all on the same page here. I've already

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Speaker 3: got this play logged in the Action Network app DNA

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Speaker 3: change For Sam Houston State, they really hung their hat

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Speaker 3: on slow ball, control pace offensively during their first couple

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Speaker 3: of seasons at FBS and a stingy defense which it's

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Speaker 3: just not going to be the case this season for

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Speaker 3: Sam Houston. They couldn't even field a legitimate too deep

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Speaker 3: in the spring because of all the roster turnover and

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Speaker 3: all of the departures and with what they backfilled with

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Speaker 3: the talent level defensively and the guy scheming it up

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Speaker 3: is just not there. Just don't think that the books

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Speaker 3: have accounted for the style of play. Change all systems

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Speaker 3: go here on the over, same thing happened in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty one.

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Speaker 1: Books are solid to adjusts ten to four to the

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Speaker 1: overs in Western Kentucky games. With Zappi at the helm,

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Speaker 1: we'll see if they can be in atm in terms

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Speaker 1: of the overs again here this fall the four minute offense.

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Speaker 1: This is where we're going to get into the G

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Speaker 1: five spotlight game talk, a little bit of historical angles,

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Speaker 1: talk about some coaching before we get into our place,

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Speaker 1: which the Synergy's perfect this week is our best bets

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Speaker 1: number two for each of us touch on Stanford Hawaii

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Speaker 1: out on the Islands. If you listen to Colin and

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Speaker 1: Stuck break down the trees in the ACC preview, this

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Speaker 1: is a bad, bad, bad situation for the Cardinal. There's

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Speaker 1: a chance according to Stucky, you look at some other

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Speaker 1: projections out there in the market that they could be

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Speaker 1: an underdog in every single game this season. So, yes,

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Speaker 1: they are a P four team. Yes they're traveling out there.

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Speaker 1: This is an opportunity for Hawaii, but they are no

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Speaker 1: heavyweight by any stretch. They had a highly touted quarterback

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Speaker 1: in Elijah Brown, he didn't even win the starting job.

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Speaker 1: The defense lost their only true superstar to David Bailey

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Speaker 1: to the Texas Tech Mattador Club. They end up opening

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Speaker 1: their golfers paying him a bundle to come help their

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Speaker 1: pass rush. He was the only one that was ascending

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Speaker 1: from a defensive perspective. And now you have this road

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Speaker 1: trip to Hawaii, who is in a rare home favorite spot,

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Speaker 1: at least under Timmy Chang. Since he's arrived at Hawaii,

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Speaker 1: he's a perfect six to zero straight up as a

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Speaker 1: home favorite and four to one and one against the

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Speaker 1: closing number. Playing in Ching Athletic Complex, you're going to

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Speaker 1: sellout or close to it. It's a very small place.

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Speaker 1: It's a bandbox. It's like sixteen thousand. I think the

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Speaker 1: atmosphere is going to be pretty electric for this one.

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Speaker 1: You consider that Alijado is set to take the field

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Speaker 1: as their QB one. He's a program savior, He's someone

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Speaker 1: who is born on the island. This just has a

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Speaker 1: different energy based on where they were last year. Stanford,

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Speaker 1: by the way, if you want to talk home and

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Speaker 1: away splits, and what they've done three and nine for

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Speaker 1: the fourth straight season in twenty twenty four, and as

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Speaker 1: a road underdog in this stretch, this awful four year

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Speaker 1: stretch where they're only winning three games a season against

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Speaker 1: the spread six thirteen and one. Those are the most

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Speaker 1: against the spread losses as a road underdog of any

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Speaker 1: team in America in that stretch. So they keep getting

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Speaker 1: in this spot, they keep underperforming, they keep rolling over

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Speaker 1: and opposing teams or cashing tickets of the window. But

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Speaker 1: this wouldn't be a Hawaii game without a weather report,

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Speaker 1: and this one is incredibly meaningful.

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Speaker 3: Well, the current projections are going to be winn and

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Speaker 3: it's going to be a sustained wind of eighteen to

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Speaker 3: twenty two with GUS up to twenty six or twenty seven.

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Speaker 3: So I think that that's just something to keep an

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Speaker 3: eye on. We're still a little ways out from nailing

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Speaker 3: down the exact win speeds, but there's going to be

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Speaker 3: wind on the island. There's a consistent win this time

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Speaker 3: of year, and we'll see it affect this game in

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Speaker 3: some capacity with them having to battle through windy conditions.

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Speaker 3: I think it's really fascinating too to just think about this.

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Speaker 3: I'm not quite ready to crown Allahado as the next

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Speaker 3: Cole McDonald or Bryant Mones or.

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Speaker 1: Even Braden Schager.

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Speaker 3: Here with the Hawaii offense, this I think has to

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Speaker 3: be considered a must win for Hawaii as they have

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Speaker 3: got to get all the wins that they possibly can

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Speaker 3: in order to put themselves in position to make a

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Speaker 3: Bowl game this season. And I think Timmy Chang knows

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Speaker 3: that they'll certainly do their fair share of passing. But

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Speaker 3: even last year in the air raids system, we didn't

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Speaker 3: see as much tempo. We saw them operate methodically and

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Speaker 3: they did try to run the ball a little bit more.

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Speaker 3: And I think Timmy Chang knows that they are successful

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Speaker 3: as a team when they have success running the ball.

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Speaker 3: I think Hawaii will actually try to run the ball

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Speaker 3: a little bit more than expected. With Stanford, you know

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Speaker 3: they're going to more of a pro style attack. We've

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Speaker 3: got frank Reich. I just don't see a ton of

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Speaker 3: the chunk plays for Stanford. We've got an offensive line

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Speaker 3: that was kind of piecemealed together and doesn't necessarily grade out. Okay,

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Speaker 3: one thing that I think is significantly underrated in this

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Speaker 3: matchup is the Hawaii defense. They return a tremendous amount

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Speaker 3: of production on defense. At times they performed really well

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Speaker 3: against the run. Hawaii has the upper hand on the

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Speaker 3: Stanford offense. I don't think we're going to get a

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Speaker 3: tremendous amount of pace here. Everything just seems to be

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Speaker 3: pointing to being difficult for Stanford when they have the

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Speaker 3: ball against this Hawaii offense. You already have the travel,

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Speaker 3: you're breaking in new players, You've got a quarterback that

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Speaker 3: doesn't really gain a tremendous amount of explosives. The outside

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Speaker 3: weapons are gone. So my second best bet is I

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Speaker 3: took Stanford team total under twenty six and a half.

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Speaker 3: I think it's going to be a struggle for Stanford

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Speaker 3: all game to get in a rhythm offensive and I

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Speaker 3: just think that they're really underskilled even more than they're

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Speaker 3: leading on. I don't think this team is very talented offensively.

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Speaker 3: In Hawaii has a significant upper handle for what they

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Speaker 3: bring back on defense.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to stick with the side from my best bet.

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Speaker 1: I like the bow's lay in two and a half

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Speaker 1: and what I feel as though I'm getting walking into

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Speaker 1: this Week zero matchup a motivated, healthy, experienced warrior team

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Speaker 1: with juice. Ali Hado brings the juice. He can make

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Speaker 1: all of the throws in this offense. I understand that

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Speaker 1: New Mexico's defense with buns, that's fine, there's still whether

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Speaker 1: you're throwing even against air. Can you layer these passes in?

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Speaker 1: I've just done the entire baseball season with Sean Zarrillo

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Speaker 1: and he always talks about pitch mix when it comes

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Speaker 1: to quarterbacks. Is everything a bullet? Can you layer it

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Speaker 1: in there? Can you throw with anticipation? Ali Haddo absolutely can.

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Speaker 1: And this offense is also a quarterback's best friend, even

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Speaker 1: in a windy situation because they can play pick a

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Speaker 1: ball if they want to. They can shrink down the

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Speaker 1: area that they're attacking on the field because they attack

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Speaker 1: all the way across. So you got some pre snap

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Speaker 1: reads that you see he's not reading the defense as

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Speaker 1: soon as the ball snapped. He's read it before they've

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Speaker 1: even snapped the ball, so it's out of his hands immediately.

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Speaker 1: They put in the RPOs, you know, those read option

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Speaker 1: plays for him. And also when you talk about the

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Speaker 1: run game, you have to mention him as well, because

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Speaker 1: Timmy Chang in terms of being a play caller seventh

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Speaker 1: most or seventh highest percentage I should say of quarterback

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Speaker 1: design runs of any play caller in the country in

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Speaker 1: the last five years. So I think there's an opportunity

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Speaker 1: to get Alijado healthy in this game, to go in

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Speaker 1: and be dynamic. He went for over fifty rushing yards

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Speaker 1: against New Mexico in that one start. And as I

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Speaker 1: also said at the top with the Cardinal, with know

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Speaker 1: David Bailey being a gameplay and wrecker, I think you know,

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Speaker 1: you also have to turn your eyes to that secondary

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Speaker 1: that is very green, and they're going to have to

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Speaker 1: throw some extra man power back there in terms of

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Speaker 1: dropping zones just to be able to avoid those explosive plays.

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Speaker 1: That means more time in the pocket for this kid

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Speaker 1: to work and kind of pick them apart. When I'm

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Speaker 1: saying that they're green, like Jordan Washington is going to

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Speaker 1: start at one of their cornerback positions. He was a

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Speaker 1: dark Man last year, and I'm really glad that you

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Speaker 1: talked about some of the issues in poking a hole

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Speaker 1: in what Stanford brings to the table here because they

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Speaker 1: used to have that trademark toughness under David Shaw. Where

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Speaker 1: was the toughness last year? They finished one hundred and

355
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Speaker 1: sixteenth in line yards. Now Hawaii has seven starters back

356
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Speaker 1: on the defensive side, but they also went to the

357
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Speaker 1: portal and got some big wins. I think the game

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Speaker 1: plan is going to be simple, stack the box, stop

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Speaker 1: the run. Say hey, there's twenty mile an hour, Gus,

360
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Speaker 1: good luck throwing twenty five yards downfield against a veteran

361
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Speaker 1: secondary as well. We're just going to put pressure on

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Speaker 1: you and hope you make mistakes. I'm shocked that this

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Speaker 1: hasn't cruise passed the key number of three. I would

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Speaker 1: still play it up into the four four and a

365
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Speaker 1: half five range. I think this is going to be

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Speaker 1: a coming out party for Alojado, the savior job season

367
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Speaker 1: for Timmy Chang. All their home games this year are winnable,

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Speaker 1: including this one. I think they get off to a

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Speaker 1: hot start, they make a statement, and Stanford he's just

370
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Speaker 1: keeping the seat warm. Frank Wright is not going to

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Speaker 1: be the guy who's going to be the head coach

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. They're gonna have a full fledged

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Speaker 1: job search. They're gonna have the added advantage of being

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Speaker 1: the first one to the drough and being able to

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Speaker 1: bet all of these coaches throughout the season. That's all

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Speaker 1: Andrew Luck and his staff are working on. So I

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Speaker 1: think this is all looking over the horizon for Stanford,

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Speaker 1: and I think why he is going to take advantage

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Speaker 1: here and go ahead and cash the win.

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Speaker 3: The urgency is at an all time high for Hawaii.

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Speaker 3: They need to see the progress. They need to get

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Speaker 3: to a bowl game for Timmy Chang. They've been really

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Speaker 3: disappointing in priors in these sort of situations, but I

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Speaker 3: think this might be the year they get over the hume.

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Speaker 1: If you've been reading the room, you are now fully

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Speaker 1: aware college football season is finally here, and to get

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Speaker 1: the most out of the Action app, you're going to

388
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Speaker 1: want to go ahead and get an Action Pro subscription. Only.

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00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:37,439
Speaker 1: With Action Pro, you can get real time pick alerts

390
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:39,880
Speaker 1: from me in the entire Action Network team of experts.

391
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Speaker 1: Plus you can access our pro projections powered by Sean

392
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Speaker 1: Kerner and our predictive analytics team, plus a ton of

393
00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:48,159
Speaker 1: other benefits. And if you don't want to commit to

394
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Speaker 1: a full year, we've got great news for you. To

395
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:53,919
Speaker 1: celebrate college football's return, we have a special price for

396
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,920
Speaker 1: one week of Action Network Pro. Just go to Action

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Speaker 1: Network dot com slash Pro anytime during week zero and

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00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:02,520
Speaker 1: get one week of Action Pro for just nine to

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00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:06,240
Speaker 1: ninety nine. No promo code needed. That's Actionnetwork dot Com

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00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:09,040
Speaker 1: slash Pro to get one week of pro access for

401
00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:12,840
Speaker 1: just nine to ninety nine anytime during college Football's Week zero.

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Speaker 1: We've now landed on our maiden voyage here of the

403
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Speaker 1: two minute drill. You're gonna run this hurry up offense.

404
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Speaker 1: This is going to be your opportunity to always shoehorn

405
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Speaker 1: in some of those FCS picks which books hang stale numbers.

406
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Speaker 1: Books aren't as interested because the volume isn't quite as high.

407
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:30,159
Speaker 1: Now in a lot of cases, we're going to have

408
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Speaker 1: to go on projections because these numbers won't pop in

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Speaker 1: your legal sports book until probably Friday nights, sometimes even

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Speaker 1: Saturday mornings. But at this point, you have three plays

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Speaker 1: that you want to get into. Let's get it started

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Speaker 1: with your first two minute drill of the twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five season.

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Speaker 2: Hi, that doesn't whet your appetite, you're watching the wrong channa.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. So for first play, Tarleton State travels to Portland State.

416
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Speaker 3: Portland State replaces do it all quarterback Dante Sachera, who

417
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Speaker 3: passed for nineteen hundred and seventy yards last season seven

418
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Speaker 3: and twenty three rushing yards, and he really kept them

419
00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:06,400
Speaker 3: competitive in some of their games last year. They now

420
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Speaker 3: have a full rebuild along the offensive line and they're

421
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Speaker 3: breaking in a new quarterback with very minimal experience. The

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Speaker 3: Portland State defense is absolutely a disaster nine five and

423
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Speaker 3: nineteen yards per game surrendered last season. On defense, they

424
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:23,159
Speaker 3: allowed sixty five percent completion percentage with twenty nine passing

425
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,640
Speaker 3: touchdowns against and six point seven yards per carey surrendered

426
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 3: on the ground during the entirety of the season. All

427
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:33,119
Speaker 3: bad for Portland State. Tarlton State returns quarterback Victor Gabalis,

428
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Speaker 3: who's in year three of the system. They have a

429
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:37,919
Speaker 3: solid portal class that shored up the offensive line and

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Speaker 3: receiver rooms, and they have eleven to their top twelve

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Speaker 3: tacklers back on defense, including a real deeper room. This

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00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 3: line has projected at only Tarlton State minus one, so

433
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 3: anything under a touchdown is absolutely a play here for

434
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:57,000
Speaker 3: me on the Texans. Next one is the miac Swack

435
00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 3: Challenge between North Carolina Central and Southern. North Carolina Central

436
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,720
Speaker 3: returns Walker Harris back at quarterback, who passed for twenty

437
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,639
Speaker 3: two hundred yards last season in twenty two touchdowns. They

438
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,560
Speaker 3: have a loaded group of pass catchers that far is

439
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,560
Speaker 3: far better than anything Southern will have seen last year

440
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 3: in their slate. Defense loses a few key pieces, but

441
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,680
Speaker 3: they return experience at all three levels. Southern University had

442
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,719
Speaker 3: major quarterback issues last season and was not able to

443
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 3: pass the ball at all. They had to rely on

444
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:26,240
Speaker 3: the ground game to keep them in at last year.

445
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,879
Speaker 3: North Carolina Central has better athletes, better coaching, and until

446
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:33,560
Speaker 3: Southern can show any ability to pass the ball with consistency,

447
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 3: I'm going to fade them. Anything nine and a half

448
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:37,679
Speaker 3: or less is worth the play on North Carolina Central

449
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:41,920
Speaker 3: just absolutely a cut, sick call, a butt, a really

450
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 3: good call. Last one is UC Davis and Mercer. They

451
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 3: play in the FCS Classic in Alabama. There's major major

452
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:52,719
Speaker 3: losses for UC Davis. As all time program leader Miles

453
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,400
Speaker 3: Hastings is gone at quarterback. He passed for forty five

454
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 3: hundred yards last season, which led FCS can do it all.

455
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,359
Speaker 3: Running back Land Larson, who runs for fifteen hundred yards,

456
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 3: pass received for eight hundred and forty five yards and

457
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 3: had twenty five total touchdowns, is gone. Four of the

458
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,400
Speaker 3: six top receivers are gone now. Mercer allowed two point

459
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 3: four yards per carry on the ground last season. They

460
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,400
Speaker 3: won't be that strong defensively, but they will still be comparable.

461
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 3: Now they're turning to JP Pickles at quarterback, who transfers

462
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 3: in from UTEP. They're going to run a slow tempo pace.

463
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 3: They'll be run heavy, very limited and explosiveness. Love to

464
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:25,639
Speaker 3: play under fifty three and a.

465
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,679
Speaker 1: Half there, I absolutely love it all right. I'm going

466
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 1: to get into my two minute offense. Go ahead and

467
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 1: start the clock on myself. If you get to go

468
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:35,879
Speaker 1: to FCS four week zero, I get to move up

469
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,359
Speaker 1: to power for I think that's only fair. I'm going

470
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,679
Speaker 1: to get into some angles in terms of Farmageddon in

471
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,159
Speaker 1: a moment, but I want to buy the points. I

472
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 1: want to make it a parlay Fresno plus fourteen and

473
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,359
Speaker 1: under fifty and a half parlaying that together because I

474
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 1: want to be able to get a piece of matt

475
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,119
Speaker 1: enz in his first game at the FBS level. He

476
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:54,920
Speaker 1: made three title games one two of them at North

477
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 1: Dakota State in five years guys elite and when you

478
00:22:57,160 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 1: look at that pipeline the North Dakota State to FBS football,

479
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,680
Speaker 1: Craig Bowle leaves North Dakota State, makes Wyoming a perennial

480
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 1: Bowl team. Chris Cleiman jumps up to k State. Some

481
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 1: people thought that it was a move that was a

482
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:10,680
Speaker 1: little too aggressive in terms of the coaching carousel of

483
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 1: the latter. He just wins the Big Twelve in twenty

484
00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 1: twenty two, twenty eight wins in the last three years,

485
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,439
Speaker 1: so the blueprint is there. And does he have the

486
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 1: horses this year? I'm not quite sure that he does,

487
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 1: but at least in game one. I think from a

488
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:25,439
Speaker 1: game planning perspective, you can build around Alzillian Hamilton in

489
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 1: their secondary. He has flexibility to be a lockdown corner.

490
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 1: Jason Jacks and Corey Foreman can generate pressure upfront, and

491
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,439
Speaker 1: KU is starting three new offensive linemen upfront. The receiving

492
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 1: room is all new. Could that translate to some empty possessions,

493
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,679
Speaker 1: a lower scoring game, mucket up a little bit. I

494
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,160
Speaker 1: think they are all right. As I mentioned, I want

495
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 1: to dip in to the power for level here and

496
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 1: look at a play and the Emerald Isle there in

497
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,400
Speaker 1: doublin between Iowa State and k State in farm again

498
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 1: under ten and a half in the first quarter. I

499
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 1: know no one's super excited to bet an under, let

500
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 1: alone a first quarter under as your first official play

501
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,119
Speaker 1: of the season, but so much of this trends in

502
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 1: that direction. I went back and looked at all the

503
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 1: box stores back to the eighties for college football being

504
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 1: played in Ireland. Six of the last eight Irish openers

505
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 1: at least one of the two teams went scoreless in

506
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 1: the first fifteen minutes. Weather can absolutely be a major

507
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 1: factor here because these kids who are practicing in the Midwest,

508
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,399
Speaker 1: there's been a heat wave. They're looking at high eighties,

509
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 1: low nineties. It could be forty degrees colder in Dublin.

510
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: I think that's going to be a massive difference. Maybe

511
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 1: have them stuck in the mud there in the first quarter.

512
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 1: And then defensively, John Heacock's defense allowed just one point

513
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 1: five points per game in the first quarter of their openers,

514
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 1: albeit in a lot of cases against FCS competition. Joe Klanderman,

515
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,439
Speaker 1: on the other side, has been equally unflappable, allowing just

516
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,120
Speaker 1: seven points across the first five quarters since he's been

517
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 1: promoted to DC in twenty twenty. That's one point four

518
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 1: points per first quarter in his openers. All right, And

519
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,120
Speaker 1: I'm going to close that with this. Rocko becked under

520
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 1: two hundred and forty one and a half passing yards.

521
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,439
Speaker 1: If you're looking for a player prop Campbell puts so

522
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:56,880
Speaker 1: much on Beck's last year, and I think with good

523
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: reason because he looked at the skill positions. He looked

524
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 1: at Higgins and Noel and he said, you can make

525
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 1: these guys into a thousand yard receivers if I give

526
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 1: you more opportunities. He did. He added five pass attempts

527
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 1: per game to what he was doing year over year,

528
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,120
Speaker 1: ran way more three wide receiver sets than they were

529
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 1: used to. And I see them going back to that

530
00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 1: two and three tight end set that they built the

531
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,640
Speaker 1: whole offense and Breese Hall around not all that long ago.

532
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 1: If you look at it, Hanson's back, you know, Salma's back.

533
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 1: I think there's going to be an opportunity for this

534
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 1: to go under thirty pass attempts in the game, that

535
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 1: could be a little bit of a rock fight early.

536
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:30,399
Speaker 1: So I'm going to go ahead under two hundred and

537
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 1: forty one and a half passing yards for rock go beect.

538
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 1: I made it in just under the wire. Didn't have

539
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 1: to buzz myself. But that's what we're gonna do here.

540
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: We're going to try to give you as many picks,

541
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 1: shoehorn them in as we can, holding ourselves accountable, to

542
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 1: cut the fat and go ahead and just give you

543
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 1: the winners. Now, the G five money line underdog parlay.

544
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 1: No surprise here, we don't have one for weeks zero.

545
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:53,199
Speaker 1: There's not many underdogs that look all that enticing. But

546
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 1: it will be back with a passion. Hopefully we're coming

547
00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 1: out of the gates swinging in week one with a

548
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 1: great one and that's seven, eight, nine to one range.

549
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 1: But for now we're gonna hold off. We're gonna make

550
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 1: the right decisions here. These are our picks here in

551
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 1: week zero. Any closing thoughts before we get into the credits.

552
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, just a really exciting time of the season and

553
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 3: not wait to get everything going weekly. Absolutely the best

554
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 3: time of the year and you and I are both thrilled.

555
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for the group of five Deep

556
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 1: dive under the Big Bets on Campus banner. This is

557
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:25,719
Speaker 1: the Week zero episode now in the books. Thank you

558
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,159
Speaker 1: so much for tuning in. Don't forget to download the

559
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 1: free award winning Action Network app and leave us a

560
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 1: five star rating and review wherever you listen to the

561
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 1: podcast the next episode. This is important. I'm got to

562
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 1: pick a five star review before the week one season

563
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 1: fully kicks off. Give that person a shout out, and

564
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 1: also give them a free ten dollar future on anything

565
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 1: they want to bet on on the twenty twenty five season.

566
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 1: If you haven't already, please subscribe to our YouTube channel

567
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 1: search for BBOC and you'll full access to all of

568
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 1: our preseason content. Like subscribe comment it really helps with

569
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,679
Speaker 1: the algorithm. Thanks for listening to the Big Bets on

570
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 1: Campus podcast and as always, best of luck with all

571
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:00,919
Speaker 1: your bets.

572
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

573
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

574
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

575
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:21,080
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