1 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:08,560 Speaker 1: What's going on? Everybody. Welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is 2 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:12,040 Speaker 1: the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I'm your host, Joe Rico, joined 3 00:00:12,080 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 1: today by a very special guest. He is Jeff Ericson, 4 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 1: senior editor and co founder of rote O Wire. Jeff, 5 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 1: great to talk with you. We usually do a couple 6 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 1: of pods in the preseasons. First time we've talked since 7 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:23,919 Speaker 1: First Pitch Arizona, I believe. But I hope you've been 8 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: doing well. 9 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, doing well. Happy to do this. Yeah, and it's 10 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 2: for time we've done a pod together. I think we 11 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 2: briefly talked on a serious XM, but you know, uh yeah, 12 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:33,159 Speaker 2: it's just this time of year. 13 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 3: We're just talking beforehand, just how hectic it is. 14 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 2: I'm going to tout this week in an FBC main 15 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:41,519 Speaker 2: event next weekend. I've got drafts tonight Tomorrow night, Thursday night, 16 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 2: before my flight to tout, doing my home league draft 17 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:45,959 Speaker 2: from the hotel Sunday night. 18 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:47,840 Speaker 3: It's just it's that time of year. 19 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:51,520 Speaker 1: It's fantastic. And I was talking to Justin Mason about 20 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 1: probably going to New York for tout next year, just 21 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:57,400 Speaker 1: another trip to break up all this mad scramble in March. 22 00:00:57,600 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: You know, I usually get up to Arizona each to 23 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: the last few years. It'll be nice to add another trip, 24 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 1: which will either be New York or who knows, maybe 25 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 1: tray my hand at the main event down in Las 26 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 1: Vegas one of these days, Jeff, before we kick it off. 27 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:10,399 Speaker 1: What's going on over at Rodawirre these days? Now we're 28 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 1: if the draft gets live. 29 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 2: We've got a little bit of a new nav bar there, 30 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:16,040 Speaker 2: a little bit of a redesign, so we it's a 31 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 2: different look for people haven't checked it out. More tools 32 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 2: to help you win your leagues, both you know, fantasy leagues, 33 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 2: a lot more to help you on your gaming as well. 34 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 2: We're doing promo codes instead of free trials now, so 35 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 2: check it out roto fifteen. You can get a free 36 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 2: fift fifteen percent off any ROA wire subscription. 37 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 3: Check us out there. 38 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 2: We came out with our latest roundtable rankings, Eric Alterman, 39 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 2: Todd Zola, Clay Link and I as one of the 40 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 2: things we just did and we're going to be doing 41 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:41,279 Speaker 2: that every Friday right up until the start of the season. 42 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 2: So looking forward to a couple more iterations of that. 43 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:46,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely go check out RODA Wire, great stuff on 44 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 1: the podcast, on the website. Everything that they do is 45 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 1: top notch. Guys, we are going to be talking about 46 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 1: bold predictions today. Jeff and I are each going to 47 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 1: give you five of them, mixing in some of our 48 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: guys along the way. But first we're going to give 49 00:01:57,400 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 1: something away. If you guys want a chance to win 50 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 1: the Black Fantasy See Baseball Trophy, the crown jewel of 51 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 1: any fantasy baseball league, courtesy of our good friends over 52 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 1: at Trophy Smack, the number one destination for epic fantasy 53 00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 1: sports hardware than this is your shot. 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Jeff, let's kick it off with 64 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:35,960 Speaker 1: your first bold prediction. 65 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 3: All right. 66 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:40,799 Speaker 2: So I've been drafting Kevin McGonagall everywhere I can. I'm 67 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 2: I'm single handly pushing the AADP above two fifty. 68 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:46,360 Speaker 3: He will out earn Connor Griffin this year. 69 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 2: Connor Griffin goes for half you know, you know twice, 70 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,800 Speaker 2: you know, twice as early as McGonagall does. I think 71 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 2: McGonagall is better suited to be a pro this year, 72 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 2: to be a major leaguer this year. McGonagall might begin 73 00:02:57,639 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 2: the year in the miners. It's a better team. He's 74 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 2: got to earn his way onto than the Condor Griffin 75 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 2: does with the Pittsburgh Pirates. But the batting eye is 76 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 2: so much better. This swing is so compact. Griffin's going 77 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,960 Speaker 2: to strike out a bunch zero walks, six strikeouts going 78 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 2: into spring training games at the time of this recording, 79 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 2: I think Griffin's going to struggle a little bit once 80 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:17,519 Speaker 2: he hits major league pitching. 81 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:21,400 Speaker 1: I could definitely see that happening. And the price has 82 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,519 Speaker 1: just gotten ridiculous for Connor Griffin. As you mentioned, like, 83 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:27,520 Speaker 1: if I'm looking online championships over the last week, Connor 84 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:30,800 Speaker 1: Griffin's inside the top one forty main event traps are 85 00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:32,919 Speaker 1: going and he's a I think an eighth round pick 86 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 1: or ninth round pick. In the latest main event board, 87 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 1: I saw the price has gotten crazy. Kevin McGonagall, even 88 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 1: if he doesn't start the year with the team, could 89 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 1: see him coming up really really early, giving you maybe 90 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 1: twenty and ten in a best case scenario, hidding for 91 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: batting average. So I think this one could very well 92 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 1: come into play. I like Connor Griffin, but just the 93 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 1: price has just gotten so expensive. It has my first 94 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 1: no go ahead. 95 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 3: I'm sorry. 96 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 2: It's also this is also an endorsement in McGonagall too. 97 00:03:58,200 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 3: You just look at it is bat. 98 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 2: You know just how Hey controls the strike zone, get 99 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 2: the compacts, wing real power here. Defense might be the 100 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 2: only concern. But when he plays for the Tigers, and 101 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 2: I know there are exhibition games in spring training games, 102 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 2: but it still shows it a little bit of intent. 103 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 3: He's betting leadoff for this team. 104 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 2: That shows me they believe in that bat right now. 105 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, I absolutely agree. Kevin McGonagall has been a huge 106 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:22,800 Speaker 1: target over my recent drafts, and with the big drafts 107 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 1: coming up, I think I will continue to take him 108 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 1: barring any crazy jump in price. But I think Griffin 109 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,840 Speaker 1: will go substantially higher than McGonagall. So I definitely agree 110 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 1: with you there, Jeff. My first prediction, and this one 111 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 1: may ruffle some feathers, is about Nick Kurtz. I'm not 112 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 1: a huge Knick Kurtz guy this year. My bull prediction 113 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 1: is that he will not finish as a top ten 114 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 1: first baseman. Just looking at the depth of the position, 115 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 1: we now have Rafael Devers over there, pt Alonso Olsen, Harper, 116 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 1: Ben Rice technically qualifying. Still, however you want to classify him, 117 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: Vinnie Pasquentino, Tyler Soderstrom, Michael Bush. It's a very very 118 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:55,239 Speaker 1: deep position. I didn't even mentioned my guy here in Toronto, 119 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 1: Vladimir Guerrero Junior. Nick Kurtz had a phenomenal, phenomenal rookie 120 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:01,720 Speaker 1: SA and there's no question about it. But I worry 121 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:04,719 Speaker 1: a little bit about the contact rates seventy six percent 122 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:08,279 Speaker 1: zone contact, a sixty seven percent contact rate, with his 123 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 1: swing and miss ability that he has. I worry about 124 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: Nick Kurtz returning his value, and I think in a 125 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 1: worst case scenario for drafters, he might not even return 126 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:19,039 Speaker 1: a top ten value at the position. Jeff, am I 127 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:19,600 Speaker 1: crazy here? 128 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:21,600 Speaker 3: You're not crazy. 129 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 1: It is bold. 130 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 2: It's the whole thing. It's not crazy predictions, it's bold predictions. 131 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 2: I think that Kurtz's strikeout rate is scaring a lot 132 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 2: of smart people, especially the second half strikeout rate the last. 133 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:31,800 Speaker 3: Couple of months. 134 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 2: The huge lefty righty split is definitely a concern. The 135 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 2: good news is he still gets to play in that ballpark. 136 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 2: It still carries there. I think he'll get the power stats. 137 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 2: It just it's going to have a Schwarber like effect. 138 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 2: Before Schwarber hit two fifty on the regular. I think 139 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:50,280 Speaker 2: batning average will be a risk, but it still puts 140 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:53,239 Speaker 2: me even if even in a worst case scenario batting 141 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:55,559 Speaker 2: average wise, still think he earns top ten first base. 142 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:58,719 Speaker 2: But the takeaway here, though, is if you're uncomfortable with 143 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,159 Speaker 2: the price at Kurtz, there are so many good first 144 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 2: basemen at various price points in your draft. I am 145 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 2: so comfortable waiting on first base if you have to. 146 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:09,720 Speaker 2: I'm not against taking Blady early. I'm not against taking 147 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 2: an early first baseman. But man, man, if you've got 148 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 2: any sort of like pebble in your shoe about Nick Kurtz, 149 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 2: you know, don't don't take them there. 150 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 1: Move on. Yeah, even in a fifteen team League the 151 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:24,719 Speaker 1: fifteenth first baseman by adp Is Wilson Contreras. I'd be 152 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 1: perfectly fine hunting the position quote unquote and taking the 153 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:31,479 Speaker 1: last guy in the quote starting caliber range in a Contrera. 154 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 1: So yeah, to your point, the position is just really, 155 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 1: really deep. Jeff. Number two for you regards the seemingly 156 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 1: cursed Atlanta Braves. What do you think is gonna happen 157 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:40,839 Speaker 1: with them in twenty twenty six. 158 00:06:41,000 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 2: They went through that season from hell last year. Surely 159 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:45,600 Speaker 2: they can't be as unlucky as they were last year. 160 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 2: Don't call me, Shirley. They could very well. 161 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 3: Be as unlucky. 162 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,600 Speaker 2: They've already lost Jerkson Profar to a dumb suspension. 163 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:54,360 Speaker 3: What an idiot. 164 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:58,119 Speaker 2: You've got three major pitching injuries already, well two major, 165 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 2: one minor player, but major injuries, Spencer Swellenbach and Arston Waldrup. 166 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 2: Losing both those guys like that, I think that's really 167 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 2: tough on this team. They didn't add much from the outside. 168 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 2: They just lost Joey Wentz for the season two torn 169 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 2: ACL so they're just stripping away at that depth. 170 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 3: When you've got. 171 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 2: Three guys that are returning from injury in that starting 172 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 2: rotation years you're two three and four starters. I think 173 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 2: it's a bad recipe year. 174 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 1: You know. 175 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 2: I think Ozzi Alby's is a guy that is really risky. 176 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 2: I think he could be dealt at the trade deadline 177 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:27,560 Speaker 2: this year. They will be sellers at the trade deadline 178 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 2: this year. 179 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: I can absolutely see it. You know, we've been saying 180 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 1: it's almost been a running joke for the last couple 181 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 1: of years. Surely the Braves will turn it around this season. 182 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 1: Austin Riley will have a better year. Michael Harris, Ozzy 183 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 1: Alby's and these guys have disappointed for the last several seasons. 184 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:41,880 Speaker 2: Now. 185 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 1: Injecting Ronald Acunya Junior back on that lineup is fantastic, 186 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: But how much can he do if there's a lot 187 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 1: of disappointment and tons of injuries around him. The Joey 188 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 1: Wentz news was brutal for my Draft Champions shares because 189 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 1: I did have a couple forty nine to fiftieth round 190 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 1: Joey Wentz, So I'm a man short before the season 191 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,120 Speaker 1: even starts. But I could definitely see this happening in 192 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 1: a tough division where I think the Mets are going 193 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 1: to be competitive and the Phillies are going to be 194 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 1: competitive with a Marlins team that wasn't too bad last 195 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 1: year either. I could see the Braves starting to sell 196 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: some pieces off as we approach the trade deadline. This 197 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 1: one may not be as bold for my second one. 198 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 1: Surely not as bold as the first one. But William 199 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 1: Contreras will be the number one catcher in Fantasy baseball now. 200 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 1: He's usually the fourth off the board by ADP. Sometimes 201 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,040 Speaker 1: Hunter Goodman may go ahead of him. Sometimes he might 202 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 1: even go as high as number two. He might jump 203 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 1: ahead of Ben Rice or by ADP, he is the fourth. 204 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 1: William Contreras was playing hurt throughout last season and yet 205 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 1: still got six hundred and fifty nine played appearances, gave 206 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 1: you seventeen homers, he hit two sixty scored eighty nine runs, 207 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:40,199 Speaker 1: and chipped in a few stolen bases. He's just a 208 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 1: year removed in twenty twenty four from being that number 209 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 1: one catcher giving you five category production. And I think 210 00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 1: a healthy William Contreres will pretty easily out earn Cal 211 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,840 Speaker 1: Rawly in every other catcher in twenty twenty six. Jeff, 212 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:52,760 Speaker 1: what do you think about that. 213 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:56,040 Speaker 2: I've been drafting Contreras ahead of Bengaliers ahead of Ben 214 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:58,959 Speaker 2: Rice already. He is my number two. And if you 215 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:03,120 Speaker 2: don't feel comfortable take rally, I get it. So I 216 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:05,120 Speaker 2: think I still have rally number one. But yeah, it's 217 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 2: not a big step to go from two to one. 218 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 2: Contrast was our one last year. Totally reasonable pick. 219 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, I just am a sucker for getting catching earlier 220 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: and earlier in those two catcher leagues one catcher leagues. 221 00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 1: I'm as I'm fine punting it as long as you can. 222 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:22,400 Speaker 1: There are sixteen seventeen really good catchers in those two 223 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 1: catcher formats. Like I did in tout wars, getting a 224 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 1: couple of catchers in the first five or six rounds 225 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 1: I think can really end up paying dividends guys. Before 226 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 1: we keep it going on to remind you about the 227 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 1: draft simulator. Level up your Fantasy Baseball draft prep with 228 00:09:34,960 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 1: the Fantasy Pros Mock Draft Simulator. Complete realistic mock drafts 229 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 1: in minutes without waiting between picks. Tailor your mock drafts 230 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 1: to your league specific settings, including roster configurations and scoring systems. 231 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 1: Receive instant feedback and draft rates to refine your strategy 232 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 1: and gain a competitive edge. Very confidently and dominate your 233 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 1: draft with the mock draft simulator at fantasypros dot com. 234 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 1: Slash draft wizard Jeff number three for you regards a 235 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: Seattle Mariners starting pitcher. Let's hear it about Brian. 236 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is hurtful. I really like Brian Wu. I 237 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 2: will not be drafting Brian Wu. I've been passing on 238 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 2: him for the likes of Chris Sale, for Hunter Brown, 239 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:13,520 Speaker 2: even Max Freed, because I am very worried Brian Wu 240 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 2: missed the right end of the regular season in the 241 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 2: start of the playoffs with the pectorial injury. This is 242 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:21,079 Speaker 2: a strain. He cleared it. He did pitch against the 243 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 2: J's in the ALCS. I don't think he's going to 244 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:25,719 Speaker 2: be the same guy this year. I don't think he's 245 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 2: going to be a top twenty starter. I hope I'm wrong. 246 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 2: I really hope I'm wrong. But this is like the 247 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 2: classic Simpsons meme. He hasn't had surgery yet. Dat No, 248 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:36,959 Speaker 2: he hasn't had surgery yet. Bart, you know, this is 249 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 2: really a situation there with the Mariners as a whole. 250 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 2: I'm concerned about looking Gilbert miss some time. Bryce Miller's 251 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:46,679 Speaker 2: already banged up a little bit there there's a huge 252 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:48,840 Speaker 2: home road split issue there with this team as well. 253 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 3: Even WU deals with that three forty year or a 254 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 3: on the road. 255 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:55,680 Speaker 2: If somehow they t mobiles, specs change somehow, maybe they 256 00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:57,439 Speaker 2: reintroduce happy funball. 257 00:10:57,520 --> 00:10:57,960 Speaker 1: I don't know. 258 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 2: I'm concerned about the Miners, but I'm concerned about Brian Wu. 259 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 2: I won't be drafting him at cost. 260 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:06,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a conversation that I had with Justin 261 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:10,199 Speaker 1: Mason and Paul Spore recently, just about just because a 262 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 1: guy has one healthy season, does that alleviate all the 263 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 1: concerns of previous injury. And he does have a couple 264 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 1: of four arms trains, and then he ended the year 265 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 1: not not healthy. In the postseason he did pitch a 266 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 1: little bit, but they weren't great innings against the Blue Jays. 267 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: You can't read too too much into it, but the 268 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:26,480 Speaker 1: fact that he was not healthy at the end of 269 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 1: the season does worry me a little bit. And also 270 00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 1: the splits to some extent, not just with Wu, but 271 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 1: with all Mariners pitchers. They are godly at home, you know, 272 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 1: two's eras all of them, but when you start to 273 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:40,719 Speaker 1: look at the home and a waste splits for their 274 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 1: careers it does get a little bit concerning Brian Wu 275 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: away from Seattle three seventy one, on top of the 276 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 1: injury concerns. Are you ever gonna think maybe I should 277 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 1: sit Brian Wu if there's a couple starts away from 278 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 1: T Mobile Park. 279 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 2: Probably not, but I guess I would depend on maybe 280 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,680 Speaker 2: maybe there's a couple of the elite lineups. I watch 281 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 2: the velocity obviously, but that's the thing I kind of 282 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 2: dig into a little bit farther there. Normally, if I'm 283 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:07,480 Speaker 2: if I've drafted him so far, I'm probably just rolling 284 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:08,559 Speaker 2: with him. 285 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's probably correct. Maybe it's more for 286 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 1: the Luis Casill I think Castillo has probably the most 287 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 1: drastic home and away splits there. But something to monitor 288 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 1: if you're facing the Dodgers away from home, or maybe 289 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 1: the Dodgers are the most extreme example, but one of 290 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 1: those top five lineups, maybe just double check how they've 291 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 1: looked recently in terms of the velocity and some of 292 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 1: the supporting metrics. This one's a little bit spicy, but 293 00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:30,600 Speaker 1: I've already planted my flag on Jack hagleion he will 294 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 1: finish as a top twenty outfielder. If I'm looking at 295 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:38,680 Speaker 1: the most recent rodal Wire Online Championship ADP forty first 296 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 1: outfielder one seventy eight ADP. When I look at the 297 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 1: plate discipline that he already has, Yes, I know was 298 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 1: a really disappointing season, no doubt he hit one fifty seven. 299 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:48,760 Speaker 1: It was a total washout, but only a twenty two 300 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 1: percent strikeout rate and eight percent walk rate. He has 301 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:55,240 Speaker 1: really good power twelve percent barrel, decent heart hit rates, 302 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 1: and he's already looking really good in spring in terms 303 00:12:57,280 --> 00:12:59,839 Speaker 1: of the exit velocities. I think Jack hagleone can have 304 00:12:59,880 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 1: a phenomenal season and what is continuing to be an 305 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:04,839 Speaker 1: improving Royals lineup with the fence is moving in as well. 306 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 1: I think Jack could be a thirty home run guy. 307 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:10,440 Speaker 1: In my really really bold prediction that I'll sprinkle in 308 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:13,199 Speaker 1: here is that he could actually would earn Nick Kurtz. 309 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:14,679 Speaker 1: That wouldn't be surprised by it. 310 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 3: I wouldn't be stunned by it. 311 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 2: And I will say this about Jack kag every time 312 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 2: he goes and it's not on my roster. I'm disappointed. 313 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 2: I'm frustrated. That's the sign of a player you want 314 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,319 Speaker 2: a roster. It's a sign of a guy you need 315 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 2: to pump up a little bit too, you know. Sometimes, 316 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:34,120 Speaker 2: you know, we get wetted to our projections are ranked 317 00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 2: ADP whatever it is, and then you find out, well, 318 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 2: I really like this guy though still and you don't 319 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 2: get them. 320 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:41,679 Speaker 3: Well, maybe you should be changing your rankings a little bit. 321 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 1: What would be the highest you'd be willing to go 322 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 1: on Jack? Because his ADP one seventy eight, but we 323 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 1: are seeing him start to move up. If you're looking 324 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 1: at the draft trends, some recent picks that are even 325 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:55,319 Speaker 1: inside of the top one hundred on the NFBC Draft 326 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:57,840 Speaker 1: Trends page. I don't know if I'm willing to pay 327 00:13:57,840 --> 00:13:59,560 Speaker 1: top one hundred prices as much as I like him. 328 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:01,520 Speaker 1: What would be your tap out phase there for draft on. 329 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 2: A fifteen teamer, I'd say before round ten, round nine, 330 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 2: round ten, Uh, And there's other considerations everything else. 331 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:08,680 Speaker 3: You know, you better. 332 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 2: I will say this about uh kag Leoni is is 333 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,839 Speaker 2: you better have some batting average banked in there a 334 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:16,200 Speaker 2: little bit there, because that is the one area I'm 335 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:17,200 Speaker 2: still concerned. 336 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 3: About a little bit. 337 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 2: Even you know, even with some of the walk metrics 338 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 2: and the k metrics improving, I still think that is 339 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 2: the risky aspect of it there. But yeah, ninth tenth round, 340 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 2: I see no problem with that one there. Pick one 341 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 2: twenty one, thirty five maybe that sort of range. I 342 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 2: want to get at least one share. 343 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 3: Of him there. 344 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 2: I've got a few, a lot more drafts still coming up, 345 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 2: so I'll get my shots. 346 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, I have a few. I'll continue to take them 347 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:43,160 Speaker 1: as long as we're not getting inside. Maybe the top 348 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 1: one fifty might be my tap out range one forty 349 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:50,280 Speaker 1: something along of that sounds right, Yeah, that that feels 350 00:14:50,400 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 1: roughly right. But I do love Jack. There might be 351 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 1: one or two times where I'm willing to push them 352 00:14:53,960 --> 00:14:56,800 Speaker 1: up even potentially higher than that. Guys, before we keep 353 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 1: it going, I do want to remind you about fan 354 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 1: tracks are the home of fantasy sports. With offseason trades, 355 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 1: real time updates, and seamless player transactions that keep the 356 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 1: excitement alive three hundred and sixty five days a year. 357 00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:10,160 Speaker 1: You can plan and trade draft picks for seasons to come. 358 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 1: You can even have leagues with two hundred plus managers. 359 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 1: It sounds crazy, but you can do it on fan tracks. 360 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: Bring your fantasy Baseball league over or an unbeatable user experience. 361 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 1: Sign up today at fantracks dot com slash Fantasy pros. 362 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:25,240 Speaker 1: Jeff Let's head to number four and it regards a 363 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 1: closing spec that I have actually really liked. And Jason 364 00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:29,360 Speaker 1: Klett mentioned here on the channel when he was a 365 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 1: guesst a few weeks ago. 366 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, Justin Sterner to collect to convert twenty save opportunities 367 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 2: for the Athletics now Sacramento, now Las Vegas, not Oakland, 368 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 2: just Athletics. They're like a soccer club. But I look 369 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 2: like the skills here for Justin Sterner, like the strikeouts, 370 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 2: like what he did over the stretch of the season. 371 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 2: Our issue is Mark casse just does not care about 372 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 2: your fantasy league. He doesn't care who is closer is period. 373 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:56,320 Speaker 2: You know, a number of different pictures got saves, Sterner 374 00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 2: not among them, but he was their best pitcher in 375 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 2: the second half of the season out of the bullpen. Obviously, 376 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 2: that ballpark's scary. Just his lack of experience is scary. 377 00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 2: But there's high upside and the cost is like pick 378 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:09,240 Speaker 2: four fifty, So yeah. 379 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 3: I'm in on that. 380 00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 2: Like last round and a twelve team er, you know, 381 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:15,080 Speaker 2: twenty eighth round and a fifteen teamer. 382 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll punk down on that. 383 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, I really liked what he did last season. It 384 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 1: was an eighteen point four strikeout minus walk rate, one 385 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 1: zero four whip on the service, it was a three 386 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,560 Speaker 1: eighteen EI. Some of the expected metrics are a little 387 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 1: bit higher. But I think I agree that the back 388 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 1: end of that athletics pen should be opened for him 389 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:34,800 Speaker 1: to take. When you're taking him, Jeff, would you think 390 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: about pairing him with one of those other potential guys 391 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:41,320 Speaker 1: like a Hogan Harris or a Mark Leier junior or 392 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 1: somebody else who might get saves in Oakland? I was 393 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 1: about to say, in Oakland for the athletics, or are 394 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 1: you confident enough to just take Sterner there? 395 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 2: I'm a single bullet it, I think just because I 396 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 2: can't identify which is the alternative. Necessarily, I don't want 397 00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 2: to tie up especially Ellen draft day, I don't want 398 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 2: to tie up three reserve spots on A's relief pitchers. 399 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 2: What I'll do is I'll just take one, and if 400 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 2: it's wrong, well, okay, we move on and cut. We 401 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 2: costs nothing, and we're gonna cut your twenty eighth round 402 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 2: or almost all the time anyhow. So, yeah, I don't 403 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 2: need to tie up all my spots on that. In fact, 404 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 2: anytime I take more than like one or two relief 405 00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 2: respects among my reserves, I feel really bad. I feel 406 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:18,880 Speaker 2: like it's a waste of you know, taking starter specs 407 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:21,479 Speaker 2: which are harder to land and harder to get in season, 408 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 2: whereas I think relief pictures will emerge. So I'm I'm 409 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 2: probably not going to back up too many guys. I 410 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:29,080 Speaker 2: think I might back you know, I think there are 411 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:31,919 Speaker 2: situations where like Hater or Bray, you if you got 412 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,359 Speaker 2: stuck with Hater, or if you're taking the chance or 413 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 2: buying the dip on hater, I don't mind a brave 414 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 2: such an expensive cost is the thing. Even then I'm 415 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 2: kind of like, not thrilled with it. I think Pegan 416 00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:46,639 Speaker 2: Santian is a nice one to kind of pair up 417 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 2: together because we have an obvious pivot. Not too many 418 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:52,640 Speaker 2: teams have the obvious pivot, but I do know more 419 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 2: than two for one given team. 420 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:57,880 Speaker 1: Though, what I am starting to do a little bit 421 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:01,160 Speaker 1: this year just based on the uncertain around closers. It's 422 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 1: just not waiting and they're getting more expensive. But my 423 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:06,800 Speaker 1: early drafts I was thinking, Okay, I can wait till 424 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 1: the one hundreds and take a Hoffman at Pegan and 425 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 1: a Fairbanks, but they're getting more and more expensive. I'd 426 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: almost prefer to just take the Duran and Diaz or 427 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 1: Williams and Smith type of combo and just take care 428 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:20,719 Speaker 1: of it early, as much as it sucks to use 429 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 1: a second or third round pick on a closer. Have 430 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:24,360 Speaker 1: you found yourself doing that so far this year? 431 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 3: Not this year. 432 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 2: I double tapped closers last year in the main, I 433 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 2: was on the wheel at the three four turn and 434 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 2: I did I did, Edwin Diaz and Risela Glaciers wasn't 435 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 2: thrilled with it, even though the overall numbers for Glaciers 436 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,440 Speaker 2: look okay, chances are a lot of those saves something 437 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:41,040 Speaker 2: least some of those staves were on your bench and 438 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 2: it was a disaster early on. 439 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 3: Remember you lost the job for a while. 440 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:46,880 Speaker 2: Let's it's just the opportunity cost of taking away either 441 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 2: an elite starter an elite bat that early. Doing that twice, 442 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:53,679 Speaker 2: I can't do doing one. Yeah, I'll probably still do that. 443 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:55,919 Speaker 2: I've been doing that a number of times. I've been 444 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:58,160 Speaker 2: getting the top five, which has now really almost become 445 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,159 Speaker 2: a top eight if you look at like the the 446 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:02,960 Speaker 2: first three main events, it's a top eight now. Bed Nar, 447 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:05,199 Speaker 2: Devin Williams and the world As Chapman are also going 448 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,400 Speaker 2: in the third round now and a fifteen teen main event. 449 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 2: So hey, buckle up, take one, shake your head, move on, 450 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 2: say it's not worth it, and then you go ahead 451 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:14,400 Speaker 2: and do it anyhow. 452 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 1: As much as it stinks, if you look at guys 453 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:18,159 Speaker 1: you picked up off the waiver wire for saves last year, 454 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:20,160 Speaker 1: there weren't many that you could think of off the top 455 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 1: of your head that were super profitable. There were a 456 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:24,439 Speaker 1: couple of great late round picks or old As Chapman, 457 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 1: and maybe you got lucky with Pagan in the first 458 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 1: couple of weeks, but yeah, there weren't six or seven 459 00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 1: guys giving you twenty or thirty saves off the wire 460 00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:33,080 Speaker 1: last year. And if that trend continues, then maybe those 461 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 1: early round guys will continue to pay off. Going to 462 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:38,679 Speaker 1: number four on my Bold Predictions, Juri Perez is a 463 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:41,399 Speaker 1: top five starting pitcher. I think people have kind of 464 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 1: forgotten about how high he was a few years ago, 465 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 1: just because we got so excited about Paul Skeens and 466 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 1: the resurgence of trek Skuble, and we have Crochet, and 467 00:19:48,119 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 1: there's a lot of really exciting young arms at the 468 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 1: top of pitching pools, and I don't think eury Perez 469 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:55,359 Speaker 1: is quite getting their respect he deserves. Still just twenty 470 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,000 Speaker 1: two years old, which is incredible considering how long he's 471 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,320 Speaker 1: been around, but comes back from his Tommy John's surgery 472 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 1: last year, gives you twenty starts that were on the 473 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 1: surface maybe disappointing with the four to twenty five era, 474 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 1: but a lot of the supporting metrics were really good. 475 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:09,680 Speaker 1: It was a nineteen percent strike up minus walk rate 476 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 1: one zero five. Whip stuff was really good. Velocity is 477 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:15,480 Speaker 1: still there. I think eury Perez is going to be 478 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:17,399 Speaker 1: the same pitcher that we were expecting a couple of 479 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:19,160 Speaker 1: years ago, and you can take him as an SP 480 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,879 Speaker 1: two when in reality and maybe this will change over 481 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 1: the next couple weeks his pitch and gets moved up. 482 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 1: But I think ury Perez can be trusted on as 483 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:28,399 Speaker 1: an SP one this season. What do you think, Joe, Yeah, prefer. 484 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,160 Speaker 2: Him as my two, but yeah, he's got the upside 485 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:34,040 Speaker 2: as an ace as an SP one for sure. Compare 486 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,879 Speaker 2: that versus the guy goes right above him in recent 487 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:41,360 Speaker 2: drafts in the NFBC. Is fran Burvaldez good pitcher, Probably 488 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 2: not a fantasy ace because of the strikeouts Perez could 489 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 2: get there. You know, he's obviously a lot more volatile, 490 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:50,280 Speaker 2: and he's on a worst team, but the strikeout upside 491 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,199 Speaker 2: is undeniably higher. 492 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,879 Speaker 1: Yeah, this range, for me, he just screams as my favorite. 493 00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 1: And I really like Joe Ryan, but now he's moved 494 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,119 Speaker 1: into this range because of the back trouble. You got 495 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:03,640 Speaker 1: Kyle Bradish, who we don't really know how many innings 496 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 1: he's gonna throw. I think he'll be good, but I'm 497 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 1: not one hundred percent sure. You got Jesus Ozardo a 498 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 1: little bit earlier, who was great outside of the biblical 499 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,159 Speaker 1: blow ups that he had last year on back to 500 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,959 Speaker 1: back occasions that kind of ruin the whole line. Uri 501 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 1: feels like the guy to take if you're looking for 502 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 1: upside in this range. Maybe you know, people will worry 503 00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 1: about the volume. Potentially twenty starts last year, was nineteen 504 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 1: starts in twenty twenty three, But I don't see a 505 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,159 Speaker 1: reason why the Marlins wouldn't let him get thirty starts 506 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,200 Speaker 1: this season barring an injury. Of some kind. I think 507 00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 1: the thirty starts are in the cards. And there is 508 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,480 Speaker 1: the whole talk about the Tommy John honeymoon that a 509 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:40,639 Speaker 1: lot of people have researched and there's a lot of 510 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 1: studies about it. You usually have about four hundred good 511 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,200 Speaker 1: innings following Tommy John. And I think Ury Perez is 512 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 1: still going to be in that really safe, low risk 513 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,200 Speaker 1: of reinjury phase for the next year or two. And 514 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 1: I think we could see, heck if he's the sp 515 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 1: one overall at some point over the next few seasons. 516 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:56,400 Speaker 1: I don't think anybody would be surprised by that, would 517 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:57,639 Speaker 1: you be, Jeff No, I would not be. 518 00:21:57,800 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 2: The ability is clearly there. It's just can you stay healthy? 519 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:01,119 Speaker 2: Is he on the right team for it? 520 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:01,360 Speaker 1: There? 521 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,399 Speaker 2: But I think the Marlins are a little bit more 522 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,439 Speaker 2: more mature this year. They did overachieve last year. And 523 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 2: the one thing I was talking about Marlins a little 524 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 2: bit on viisent earlier today. And the one thing about 525 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 2: them is they were outscored by I think what like 526 00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 2: eighty six runs or something like that. They finished above 527 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 2: the Braves. There could be some regression as far as 528 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,080 Speaker 2: that goes. As the team they trade away Cabrera, they 529 00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 2: trade away Weathers, but they also have these young core 530 00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:26,480 Speaker 2: players that could make this team better as they go 531 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:27,120 Speaker 2: along too. 532 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, what interested me with Yuri is the projections are 533 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,920 Speaker 1: not amazing. They're they're okay, but a lot of them 534 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:38,120 Speaker 1: are three eight seven, three nine, one four zero nine. 535 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 1: The oopsie projections from Jordan Rosenbloom happened with a three 536 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:43,840 Speaker 1: five nine ERA and a one to seventeen whip, But 537 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,920 Speaker 1: some of those EREA projections are not amazing. Maybe that's 538 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 1: because of a lack of sample size because he's still 539 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 1: so young with so few innings under his belt with 540 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 1: the injury mixed in. But I love Yuri Prez. He's 541 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:56,520 Speaker 1: going to be on maybe not every one of my teams, 542 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 1: but he's going to be on a hell of a 543 00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,600 Speaker 1: lot of my teams in twenty twenty six. 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Play terms and conditions apply. 563 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,440 Speaker 4: Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one eight three to 564 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:52,960 Speaker 4: three play wise. In Indiana, if you are someone you 565 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,000 Speaker 4: know as a gambling problem, laws help called one eight 566 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:57,720 Speaker 4: hundred and nine with it gambling problem called one hundred 567 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 4: Gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New j Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. 568 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,360 Speaker 1: All right, Jeff, down to our final bold predictions, and 569 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,280 Speaker 1: I love this one about Andrew Painter, the young Phillies 570 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:08,600 Speaker 1: starting pitcher. What do you got for us? 571 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 3: Yeah? How old is Andrew Painter? 572 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:12,359 Speaker 2: If you don't, if you already, if you already looked, 573 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,280 Speaker 2: don't tell it. But you know he's only twenty two. 574 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,120 Speaker 2: You know, it seems like he's been around forever. Got 575 00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:19,119 Speaker 2: in an argument on Twitter, believe it or not, about 576 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:19,640 Speaker 2: Andrew Painter. 577 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 3: All, Oh, he's been around forever. Has he done for 578 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 3: four years? Well, he missed two years, two full years. 579 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 2: He missed not just twenty twenty three, but all of 580 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four as well. Yeah, he struggled last year. 581 00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,439 Speaker 2: This is a guy that has two hundred plus strikeout upside. 582 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,359 Speaker 2: I'm only saying one fifty at pick three hundred. My 583 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 2: point is I want to get him at pick three hundred. 584 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 2: I think the cost is plenty low enough. Plenty of 585 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 2: twentieth rounders and below in the main event that failed before. 586 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 2: This is a guy that could have huge, huge upside. 587 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,679 Speaker 2: I think he holds the spot in that Phillies rotation 588 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 2: all season long. I know the fastball needs a little 589 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,119 Speaker 2: bit of work. We've seen that in spring training. He 590 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,520 Speaker 2: needs a little bit more refinement on that fastball. I 591 00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:58,640 Speaker 2: think he gets there, and when he does, I think 592 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,720 Speaker 2: you've got yourself really high upside for a very cheap price. 593 00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 1: I totally agree. I've taken him a few times. I 594 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:07,960 Speaker 1: hope the price doesn't jump up too much now. He 595 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:11,360 Speaker 1: hasn't been sparkling in spring training to this point. I'm 596 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,720 Speaker 1: below the surface anyway. I know he has a zero era, 597 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,800 Speaker 1: not racking up the strikeouts yet, but it's still early. 598 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 1: I'm hoping that that keeps the price down on Andrew 599 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,240 Speaker 1: Painter a little bit. I think his job is secure. 600 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:23,720 Speaker 1: You know, people will worry about when Zach Wheeler comes back, 601 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,240 Speaker 1: maybe he'll get sent down. But I don't know how 602 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 1: much I trust Zach Wheeler at his age, off of 603 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,600 Speaker 1: such a serious injury. I know a lot of people, 604 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 1: a lot of smart people, are investing in him, but 605 00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,560 Speaker 1: I don't really know what to expect Taiwan Walker. I 606 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 1: don't think we can ever really know what to expect 607 00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,560 Speaker 1: with him. Usually you can expect the worst, not the better. 608 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 1: End of things. So I think that Andrew Painter should 609 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,879 Speaker 1: be secure in his job and considering where he is going. 610 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:46,959 Speaker 1: Even if he does get sent back down at some point, 611 00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:49,400 Speaker 1: it's a cheap enough cost that it is well worth 612 00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:51,479 Speaker 1: taking a dart throw on at the end of your draft. 613 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:54,920 Speaker 1: Devin Williams is where we will wrap up today. My 614 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,480 Speaker 1: prediction is that Devin Williams will finish as the number 615 00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 1: one reliever in fantasy baseball in twenty Twenty twenty five 616 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,840 Speaker 1: was terrible on the surface his first year outside of Milwaukee, 617 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:08,600 Speaker 1: a four seven nine ERA, just a dreadful year for 618 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 1: anybody who drafted him. Despite the eighteen saves, it was 619 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 1: not worth your time whatsoever. But when you look below 620 00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,080 Speaker 1: the surface, it was still a twenty five percent strike 621 00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,920 Speaker 1: up minus walk grate a one point one to three whip, 622 00:26:18,920 --> 00:26:21,720 Speaker 1: which is still phenomenal. The stuff is still among the 623 00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:24,480 Speaker 1: best in all of baseball. One fourteen stuff plus one 624 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:28,159 Speaker 1: seventeen pitching plus, and he has that job very securely 625 00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:30,640 Speaker 1: for the Mets. Where the Yankees last year went out 626 00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,000 Speaker 1: and they got Bednar and they got Dovall. Maybe the 627 00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:35,200 Speaker 1: Mets could end up making some moves, but as the 628 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:38,560 Speaker 1: roster's currently constructed, he is far and away the best reliever, 629 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 1: and you can't just write off those years in Milwaukee 630 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,639 Speaker 1: where he was a sub to Era for three consecutive years. 631 00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:46,399 Speaker 1: I think that he bounces back and he is the 632 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 1: best reliever in twenty twenty six. What do you think 633 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:49,600 Speaker 1: about Devin Williams this year? 634 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:53,320 Speaker 2: Jeff, Yeah, I think for him, it's a matter of 635 00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 2: being able to throw strike one. If he can do 636 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:58,439 Speaker 2: that not fall behind so often in the count, it 637 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,160 Speaker 2: makes that change up so much more effective. And if 638 00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 2: he can do that, I think you're going to see 639 00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,320 Speaker 2: good times going ahead with him. I know he you know, 640 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 2: he finished the season pretty strongly, you know, finished with 641 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:11,400 Speaker 2: you know, over the last like nine outings. 642 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:12,760 Speaker 3: I think he'll he. 643 00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,600 Speaker 2: Didn't allow and earn run. You know, his kate a 644 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 2: walk was a lot stronger. I know we're not this 645 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:21,119 Speaker 2: is selective endpoints, especially for relief pitchers. That's dangerous. But 646 00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 2: as long as he has command, then I think good 647 00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:24,359 Speaker 2: things follow. 648 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,879 Speaker 1: Yeah. I just like the price too. Like, as we mentioned, 649 00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:32,480 Speaker 1: closers are stupid expensive this year, and he is also 650 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:34,920 Speaker 1: pretty expensive. But for the majority of draft season, you've 651 00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,200 Speaker 1: been getting Devin Williams a few rounds later than the 652 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 1: cade Smith's, the Munno's, the Durands. So if you don't 653 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,560 Speaker 1: like taking those third round relievers again, that could change 654 00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:44,240 Speaker 1: over the next couple of weeks if you're in high 655 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,879 Speaker 1: stakes leagues. But I think if you are in maybe 656 00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:49,360 Speaker 1: some more casual leagues or twelve teamers, you know you're 657 00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,600 Speaker 1: playing in your home league on Yahoo with your buddies. 658 00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 1: I think Devin Williams a lot of people who were 659 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:55,840 Speaker 1: burned by him last year will go by the scoring 660 00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 1: lover narrative and not want to jump back in, especially 661 00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,159 Speaker 1: when they're looking at that four steven nine era. Think 662 00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:02,560 Speaker 1: in the casual formats especially, you're going to see a 663 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:05,359 Speaker 1: pretty low price on Devin Williams. Jeff, It's been a 664 00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:07,840 Speaker 1: lot of fun catching up today. Remind everybody where they 665 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:09,240 Speaker 1: can keep track of your great work. 666 00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:11,359 Speaker 2: All right, So I'm over at roadawire dot com. I'm 667 00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,600 Speaker 2: also on Sirius XM Fantasy every day Sunday through Thursday. 668 00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:17,880 Speaker 2: We're always there every day from eleven to one Eastern 669 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:21,320 Speaker 2: time I Sunbsequently, I'm on vsin on prop Points that 670 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 2: is from one to two Eastern time Monday through Friday. 671 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,080 Speaker 2: Also just follow me on social media at Jeff Underscore 672 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,600 Speaker 2: Ericson on Twitter at Jeff dash Ericson on Blue Sky. 673 00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,399 Speaker 1: Jeff is one of the absolute bests in the business. 674 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,240 Speaker 1: Make sure you are listening to him on the podcast 675 00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 1: on the radio, keeping up with the work on roadwire 676 00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:40,120 Speaker 1: dot com. It is just a phenomenal product that they 677 00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 1: have out there. But guys, that is going to wrap 678 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:44,640 Speaker 1: it up for us today. Let me know in the comments. 679 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:46,240 Speaker 1: What are your bold predictions and what do you think 680 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 1: of ours? Are we crazy? Are we on track? Let 681 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,640 Speaker 1: us know down below. For Jeff Ericson, I'm Joel Rico. 682 00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:52,120 Speaker 1: We'll talk to you next time right here on the 683 00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:53,560 Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros Baseball Podcast. 684 00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball Podcast. 685 00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,480 Speaker 2: If you love the show, the best freeway to support 686 00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:01,920 Speaker 2: us is by giving a positive review on Apple 687 00:29:01,960 --> 00:29:06,080 Speaker 4: Podcasts or Spotify, Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok 688 00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 4: at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at 689 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,440 Speaker 4: YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB