Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought
Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I am your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: That's Pat fitz Morris. You can find me on Twitter
Speaker 1: at Dan Harris Ada. You can find Pat on Twitter
Speaker 1: at fits underscore FF. It is time to talk about
Speaker 1: our best bets for Week twelve of the NFL season.
Speaker 1: We are live streaming this right now on our YouTube
Speaker 1: channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.
Speaker 2: Pat.
Speaker 1: It's almost Thanksgiving? Are you Are you ready for the
Speaker 1: big holiday or what?
Speaker 2: I am?
Speaker 1: Dan?
Speaker 3: I'm always ready for Thanksgiving? And what an underrated week
Speaker 3: of sports Thanksgiving Week is. I mean, you start the
Speaker 3: early part of the week with some really interesting, fun
Speaker 3: college basketball tournaments, you get the NFL Triple on Thursday,
Speaker 3: you get great college football rivalries on Saturday, and then
Speaker 3: more NFL on Sunday. So, like I think, it's just
Speaker 3: a dream sports week. Loving every minute of it right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well we need you know, the NFL Thursday on
Speaker 1: this one isn't exactly lighting you know, the room on
Speaker 1: fire with this. The games are not that especially the
Speaker 1: first one. I mean, you know, the Bears and the lines.
Speaker 4: Just not what we want.
Speaker 1: But I understand you may be making some picks here
Speaker 1: on some of our Thursday games, which is great, and we're.
Speaker 4: Going to do some player props.
Speaker 1: Part of the reason we can't do player props obviously
Speaker 1: on this show is because for the most part, they're
Speaker 1: not out at the time we do it. But right
Speaker 1: now we are going to be able to do it
Speaker 1: because there are enough props out now because it's Thanksgiving.
Speaker 1: That's why we are live streaming this again on our
Speaker 1: YouTube channel. So if you're in the I see some
Speaker 1: people chatting already, people waiting for the garage door to open,
Speaker 1: which is great. It will be opening, I absolutely promise you.
Speaker 1: My wife has an appointment in about twenty minutes, so
Speaker 1: it will get nobody worry about that. But in the meantime,
Speaker 1: let's go through both our latest offer from our sponsor
Speaker 1: bet MGM. We'll recap last week and then we'll do
Speaker 1: the usual show giving our three best bets for the
Speaker 1: weekend or in this case, some on Thanksgiving if either
Speaker 1: one of us has any picks for that, and then
Speaker 1: we'll do some player props here for Thanksgiving. And again
Speaker 1: Pat and I, as in addition to being betting guys,
Speaker 1: are also both fantasy guys and not to our own horns,
Speaker 1: but we're fairly accurate with our fantasy rankings over the
Speaker 1: last several years, and part of that leads into player props.
Speaker 1: So we'll get there and again, if you have questions
Speaker 1: and you're here joining us, and I see that somebody
Speaker 1: asking about cole Comet receiving yards prop, we'll talk about
Speaker 1: those as we get there and over under our garage
Speaker 1: door taking over on one and a half. That's a
Speaker 1: good bet. That's your best prop bet obviously of the weekend.
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Speaker 1: available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona,
Speaker 1: and Wyoming. All right, let's quickly recap last week our
Speaker 1: guest Mike Randall, Pat and I we were just talking
Speaker 1: about how much we love Mike and how great he
Speaker 1: is at the college basketball stuff. But he did go
Speaker 1: just one and two last week. He did hit on
Speaker 1: the Vikings getting two and a half in that matchup
Speaker 1: against the Packers, but he missed on the Seahawks getting three.
Speaker 1: The Seahawks continue to be.
Speaker 4: Just our kryptonite on this podcast.
Speaker 1: And he also had Carolina laying three and a half
Speaker 1: and they of course lost outright, I went to and one.
Speaker 1: I hit on the Chiefs laying two and a half
Speaker 1: to the Cowboys, was our betting pros pick out the
Speaker 1: day for Sunday, and the Texans getting ten from the Titans.
Speaker 1: I did miss on the Raiders getting one from the Bengals.
Speaker 1: That puts me in eighteen and fifteen on the week
Speaker 1: on the.
Speaker 4: Year, pardon me not on the week that would be
Speaker 4: a big week for me. All right.
Speaker 1: I remember we've consentives lines o our Bettingpros dot com.
Speaker 1: I will mention the different books that are available. They
Speaker 1: are moving these lines, that including the Thanksgiving lines when
Speaker 1: I looked at them just yesterday before preparing for this show.
Speaker 2: Again.
Speaker 1: You can make picks and their Betting Pros app which
Speaker 1: you should download. You can make your own picks against
Speaker 1: the spread. You can see where you stand on a
Speaker 1: leader board and all of that. Bat you were the
Speaker 1: guests on the show, I give you the honor of
Speaker 1: making your first pick here. What's your you know, what
Speaker 1: do you want to say your best bet at the weekend?
Speaker 1: However you want and put it out there. But what's
Speaker 1: your number one pick?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: So let's start with that aforementioned Bear's Lions game. Dan,
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, what a great matchup you've got to
Speaker 3: bet at pretty much because you're not watching it for
Speaker 3: the outstanding football.
Speaker 4: True.
Speaker 3: Indeed, so I really like the Lions getting three points
Speaker 3: at home here for one, I just have a policy.
Speaker 3: I would never bet against the Lions on a Thanksgiving
Speaker 3: Day game at home. I'm either taking the points they're
Speaker 3: inevitably getting or I'm just laying off, but this time
Speaker 3: I think I want those points. And it kind of
Speaker 3: comes down to well, number one, I don't think the
Speaker 3: Lions are that much worse than the Bears this year.
Speaker 2: And number two, I mean, I think it's the coaching situations.
Speaker 3: You've got the volatility of the Matt and Age situation
Speaker 3: in Chicago with him being a lame duck, a lame
Speaker 3: turkey if you will, on Thanksgiving, and you know, in Detroit,
Speaker 3: I think they have some a spree decorps with you know,
Speaker 3: with Campbell, Like everyone loves Dan Campbell, so like, I
Speaker 3: think they're going to be fired up to try to
Speaker 3: go out and get their first win of the season
Speaker 3: on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. And you know, I like
Speaker 3: getting a few points here. Yeah, So I'm taking Detroit
Speaker 3: in the three. That's one of my bets for this week.
Speaker 1: Does are you assuming with the bet or does it
Speaker 1: matter to you who starts a quarterback here for the Lions,
Speaker 1: Because of course, now there's there's some optimism, at least
Speaker 1: expressed by Dan Campbell, that Jarred Goff is going to
Speaker 1: be able to go in this game and it's not
Speaker 1: going to be Timboil doesn't.
Speaker 4: Matter to you at all.
Speaker 2: No, and on either side it wouldn't.
Speaker 3: I mean to me, like Dalton versus Fields, Boil versus
Speaker 3: GoF neither one moves the needle one.
Speaker 2: Way or the other in this one, I don't think.
Speaker 1: All right, well, it does sound like it is going
Speaker 1: to be Dalton. I think Matt Naxan came out. Of course,
Speaker 1: you referenced it. There are reports that nag is going
Speaker 1: to be fired immediately after the game, which he denies
Speaker 1: that he was not.
Speaker 4: Informed that he was going to be fired. But we'll see.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a tough one for me. Pat there.
Speaker 1: It was three and a half for a while and
Speaker 1: when it opened at three and a half. I don't
Speaker 1: know if the movement to three is because money coming
Speaker 1: in here on the Lions or because of the fact
Speaker 1: that Jared Goff could start and people think that that's
Speaker 1: better for the Lions. Either way, I don't really have
Speaker 1: a great feel for it. Necessarily, I'll be involved in
Speaker 1: this game, probably from a props per perspective, which again
Speaker 1: we'll talk about it a little bit later here. But
Speaker 1: I like the boldness of making one of your best
Speaker 1: bets not only on the Lions, but also on Thanksgiving,
Speaker 1: So we're gonna know how your week's going right off
Speaker 1: the bat. Pat like, no fear whatsoever. You don't want
Speaker 1: to punt it, tell punt till Monday night. That's my philosophy,
Speaker 1: Like let's wait until the week's alve was suffer.
Speaker 4: But yeah, I'm not.
Speaker 1: I'll just being honest. I don't have a good feel
Speaker 1: for it, Like I'm not betting it one way or another.
Speaker 1: I'd love to see the Lions win. I'd love to
Speaker 1: see them cover, but you know, I can't back them, man,
Speaker 1: I can't back them even with the do you last question?
Speaker 4: I guess do you think?
Speaker 1: Because we have seen coaching sort of stuff, you know,
Speaker 1: as much as he's lost the locker room and everything
Speaker 1: like that, but we've seen coaching stuff go the other
Speaker 1: way a little bit, like people in turmoil and then
Speaker 1: they kind of rally and then they play better.
Speaker 4: You don't really are.
Speaker 1: You putting anything into the coaching situation basically in this
Speaker 1: game for the PA.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean that's that's where a lot of
Speaker 3: it comes from. I know the Raiders sort of crossed
Speaker 3: us up with that, Like the more you know, the
Speaker 3: more turmoil the Raiders have, the better they seem to
Speaker 3: play is here, at least as far as the coaching goes.
Speaker 3: So no, I mean, I do think it kind of
Speaker 3: matters that, you know. For one, like I think the
Speaker 3: Campbell's the players coach, the players like him. For another,
Speaker 3: I don't think he's an idiot. He's not a you know,
Speaker 3: a Wayne Fonce. He's actually a decent head coach.
Speaker 2: I know, I used to love Wayne, like, and nothing
Speaker 2: entertained my stepdad as much as like watching Wayne Fonce
Speaker 2: coach on Thanksgiving Day and make jokes about him.
Speaker 3: So I do miss Wayne. But yeah, just like it
Speaker 3: seems like when you're getting these reports about the divided
Speaker 3: locker room for the Bears and how how some of
Speaker 3: these players are just like actively stabbing him in the
Speaker 3: back and telling reporters that they.
Speaker 2: There's a sizeable player population.
Speaker 3: In that locker room that wants him gone, like that's
Speaker 3: not a good thing, and like are they going to
Speaker 3: go out and play for that guy on a holiday?
Speaker 3: It just I would not be surprised if the Bears
Speaker 3: came out pretty flat for this one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I do think that it's a little different
Speaker 1: than Gruden, which you know, obviously Gruden situation didn't have
Speaker 1: anything to do with the locker room at that time
Speaker 1: and him being gone and that first came back that
Speaker 1: might have been a relief right for them. In this one,
Speaker 1: you have the reports that the players are actively basically
Speaker 1: being like, you have lost the locker room. I'm done,
Speaker 1: and so that is really tough there to go. But
Speaker 1: it is a stay.
Speaker 4: Away from me.
Speaker 1: We'll get some props a couple of them that I
Speaker 1: might like in that one, but at stay Away, you're
Speaker 1: a brave man. I love going in on the Lions
Speaker 1: for one of your best bets. I am going to
Speaker 1: take it in. I won't say an equally disappointing team,
Speaker 1: but a team that it's very difficult to get a
Speaker 1: read on, but I like the spot for them.
Speaker 4: If you've listened to.
Speaker 1: This podcast, it is the Steelers on the road in
Speaker 1: Cincinnati getting four and a half here against the Bengals.
Speaker 1: Now here's what I'm going to say. I would bet
Speaker 1: this now if you were listening to this, because I
Speaker 1: do think from everything I'm reading that the big three
Speaker 1: defensive players that the Steelers were missing last week. TJ Watt,
Speaker 1: Mika Fitzpatrick and Joe Hayden.
Speaker 4: It sounds like they're all going to come back here.
Speaker 1: And if they do, if they get through practice and
Speaker 1: they'll come back, this line's going to drop a little bit.
Speaker 1: So this is for me a prime teaser piece. Pat.
Speaker 1: I want to bet it last night for the Steelers.
Speaker 1: I mentioned this on the Monday Show. I want to
Speaker 1: bet it last night and tease it up. But DraftKings
Speaker 1: was the lone book sitting out there at four. Every
Speaker 1: other book was four and a half. Draft Kings sat
Speaker 1: out there at four. When I woke up this morning,
Speaker 1: it was at four and a half. So I did it.
Speaker 1: I teased it up and I messaged you this morning.
Speaker 1: I said, bad, I need the second teezer piece because
Speaker 1: I can't necessarily get there. And we did come up
Speaker 1: with a few. But bet it at four and a
Speaker 1: half if you like the Steelers like I do. I
Speaker 1: said last week that I was fading the Bengals Pat
Speaker 1: against the Raiders. That didn't work out very well for me,
Speaker 1: as I said, I did lose that bet. But I'm
Speaker 1: putting that a little bit more on the Raiders than
Speaker 1: I am on the Bengals. I mean, I can't buy
Speaker 1: the Bengals, Pat I look at just total DVOA and
Speaker 1: I know Matt Parl always teases me because I love
Speaker 1: DVA and I look at it closely and stuff like that.
Speaker 1: But just it's a good measure of how good a
Speaker 1: team actually is in my opinion. And Cincinnati's twenty first
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh twenty, it's two pretty evenly matched teams. And you
Speaker 1: look at the weighted DVOA, Pat, that's more recent game
Speaker 1: sort of in there, Pittsburgh twenty. It's since he twenty fourth.
Speaker 1: Again with Pittsburgh now getting healthy on defense, I think
Speaker 1: it's a different game. I think a divisional game, it's
Speaker 1: generally pretty close. And again I'm a broken record here, Pat,
Speaker 1: but the history shows us there are spots to back
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin. There are spots to fade Mike Tomlin. This
Speaker 1: is a back Mike Tomlin spot for two reasons. Garage
Speaker 1: or number one.
Speaker 4: There we are.
Speaker 1: It always comes in. I promise you, I knew she
Speaker 1: had an employment. Everybody, it's it's really miraculous. Anytime my
Speaker 1: podcasts are livestream, she has a tendency to figure out
Speaker 1: what it is. Anyway, just go here with the Mike
Speaker 1: Tomlin led Steelers. Okay, knocks you out of your survivor pool.
Speaker 1: Every single time they could be a double digit favorite,
Speaker 1: they are going to lose that game. But he is
Speaker 1: the best raw rock coach in the game. And even
Speaker 1: this year they're four and one as underdogs, They're three
Speaker 1: and one as underdogs by more than three points. And
Speaker 1: remember Pat, and I don't think we can discount this.
Speaker 1: Cincinnati went up to Pittsburgh early on in the year
Speaker 1: and spanked them a little bit, right, I mean, they
Speaker 1: won twenty four to ten. They were embarrassed by that,
Speaker 1: and since he did some chirpin' afterwards, and you know
Speaker 1: that Mike Tom was going to remind his guys of
Speaker 1: that Ben's playing a little better.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 1: I was surprised actually how decent he looked in that
Speaker 1: game coming off COVID. But he's playing a little better.
Speaker 1: The defense really is what's going to make the difference.
Speaker 1: It's a fate of the Bengals. It's a divisional game.
Speaker 1: If anything, I think Cincinnati wins this by three points.
Speaker 1: But I wouldn't mind taking the money line here on
Speaker 1: these Steelers. So that's where I am. I'm going with
Speaker 1: them getting four and a half points here on the road.
Speaker 1: In Cincinnati.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you're selling me, Dan. I mean you and Randalls
Speaker 2: told me last week.
Speaker 3: About the setups for Pittsburgh, like take them as a dog,
Speaker 3: fade them as a heavy favorite. And you know, I
Speaker 3: took your advice last week against the Chargers, and luckily
Speaker 3: the back door was open in that game. Yeah, I mean, hell,
Speaker 3: they almost want it outright at the end. So I'm
Speaker 3: kind of on board with you. Ni make a really
Speaker 3: good point about the Steelers defense getting healthier.
Speaker 2: TJ. Watt playing obviously would make a difference.
Speaker 1: Yes, different for sure.
Speaker 3: Yes, And like we have seen, you know, Burrow kind
Speaker 3: of struggle against pressure. I would say at times so far,
Speaker 3: if he is a clean pocket, he's fantastic, but he's
Speaker 3: under a heavy pass rush, like you can disrupt him
Speaker 3: and force him into some mistake. So yeah, and TJ. Watts,
Speaker 3: You're not going to have a clean pocket all day
Speaker 3: if that dude's playing so.
Speaker 1: Right, And again, there are question marks at it because
Speaker 1: you can you know secret the books no more than
Speaker 1: I do. Of course, they get advanced sort of notice,
Speaker 1: so it is up in the air to be careful.
Speaker 1: But everything I'm reading, and again, Pat, I feel like
Speaker 1: you and I probably at this point because we've been
Speaker 1: doing this for a while, Like we have minor people
Speaker 1: that we know and trust who sort of, you know,
Speaker 1: can can lean us in the right direction as to
Speaker 1: what they're thinking necesarily about injuries and things like that.
Speaker 1: And everything I've seen from people who I trust suggest
Speaker 1: that they think they're going to get.
Speaker 4: All three of these guys back right now.
Speaker 1: And it's just to me, it's a completely different in
Speaker 1: the game, by the way, both teams have to win.
Speaker 1: But look, whatever is is, you know, the defense is
Speaker 1: fine for Cincy. I think it played a little bit
Speaker 1: over its head early in the year. The offense, man,
Speaker 1: I don't know, like it just it doesn't look cohesive
Speaker 1: right now, like whatever they're doing on offense. And again
Speaker 1: they beat the Raiders pretty handily in this one. But
Speaker 1: again that's more of a fade at the Raiders. But
Speaker 1: I do think I think the Steelers win this game
Speaker 1: out right, really, I honestly do.
Speaker 2: So.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna sprinkle on the money line as you should
Speaker 1: with all sort of you know, short dogs here, but again,
Speaker 1: this is a spot, man, I'm telling you, this is
Speaker 1: a bet that I really like this week bat and
Speaker 1: especially at four and a half, which is why I'm
Speaker 1: doing it. It's in every teaser piece because if they
Speaker 1: lose by more than ten and a half, I have
Speaker 1: to rethink my entire outlook here. I'm the Steelers on
Speaker 1: the Bengals, so I can't see them losing by that much.
Speaker 4: So tease them up.
Speaker 1: Find another piece, maybe one of our Thanksgiving games, which
Speaker 1: we'll talk about. I think in a second, Pat, you're
Speaker 1: going back to Thanksgiving for pick number two?
Speaker 4: Is that right?
Speaker 2: I am Dan and first as an aside, so my
Speaker 2: dog is very contentedly gnawing on a bone next year
Speaker 2: because my wife is away and she can't be watching him.
Speaker 2: I've got to have him here with me. So if
Speaker 2: people hear that, that's what it is.
Speaker 3: But I don't know if my dog loves this basted
Speaker 3: bone as much as I love the under in the
Speaker 3: Dallas Raiders.
Speaker 2: Game, which is at a last time I checked, I
Speaker 2: think it was I got it fifty one.
Speaker 1: So it's fifty one at some books, but our consensus
Speaker 1: line again at betting pros, that's what we do. We
Speaker 1: have I don't know, twelve fifteen books here that we
Speaker 1: look at everything. It's technically fifty and a half, Pat,
Speaker 1: So if that changes anything, let me know.
Speaker 3: But it won't change anything, Dan, And I think it
Speaker 3: was actually at fifty one and a half on Draft
Speaker 3: Kings yesterday, if I'm not mistaken. So maybe there are
Speaker 3: some other people who are thinking the same.
Speaker 4: It's fifty and a half at DraftKings.
Speaker 1: I know, Pat, because spoiler alert, it's part of a teaser,
Speaker 1: but go ahead.
Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, So I mean looking at Dallas in their
Speaker 3: last four games, they have been twenty points or less
Speaker 3: in three of the four, the only exception being there
Speaker 3: forty three to three pasting of the Falcons. The Raiders
Speaker 3: have scored sixteen points or fewer in three straights. Like
Speaker 3: the Raiders, as you mentioned a second ago, have just
Speaker 3: been on kind of a downward trajectory. You know, maybe
Speaker 3: they are starting to feel the effects of John Gruden
Speaker 3: not being there calling plays. The offense just hasn't seemed
Speaker 3: quite as functional. And Dallas, I mean, we know they're
Speaker 3: going to be missing their top two wide receivers, which
Speaker 3: is well, I guess technically I don't know about that,
Speaker 3: right because they don't Yeah, I mean, so we don't
Speaker 3: know about CD Lamb yet.
Speaker 2: Like it's it's very rare.
Speaker 3: As you know, some of my injury people have pointed out,
Speaker 3: for a concussed player to get cleared, someone who was
Speaker 3: hurt on a Sunday to get cleared for a Thursdays,
Speaker 3: it's pretty rare. So I think Lamb is going to
Speaker 3: be out for this one. Yeah, I think it's going
Speaker 3: to be not a shootout, and you know, maybe there
Speaker 3: are going to be some points put up.
Speaker 2: Dak Prescott is certainly still capable.
Speaker 3: I think that the Cowboys will be able to do
Speaker 3: business on the ground against the Raiders, as most teams are.
Speaker 3: But I think the Raiders might struggle to move the
Speaker 3: ball in this one, and man like, any total fifty
Speaker 3: or higher just seems like a stretch in this game.
Speaker 3: So I'm hitting the under pretty hard here.
Speaker 1: We joked about it pat last week. It was Chris Raybond, right,
Speaker 1: friend of the show of both the betting pros on
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros side, who had tweeted out that I don't
Speaker 1: understand why everybody htes unders so much. Unders Are you
Speaker 1: know you're winning right from the time the game starts
Speaker 1: like that?
Speaker 4: That's something that's true. I agree.
Speaker 1: I mean people like to root for something, not against something.
Speaker 1: But had you not taken this, and had I not
Speaker 1: been such a coward, I probably would also have sort
Speaker 1: of taken this as one of my best bets. Yeah,
Speaker 1: this is a game that screams under to me, like
Speaker 1: absolutely screams that.
Speaker 4: I agree.
Speaker 1: I'm not expecting Ceedee Lamb to play.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 1: There's been the positive sort of discussions here about the
Speaker 1: fact that like, oh, he's in meetings, he's trending in
Speaker 1: the right direction. Mike McCarthy is optimistic. He can't clear
Speaker 1: it that quickly, Like I'll be absolutely shocked here, and
Speaker 1: that's a huge deal for this offense. Like you know,
Speaker 1: you're down Amari Cooper, You're down Ceedee Lamb, Michael Gallup
Speaker 1: and Cedric Wilson, right, I mean I know Dalton Schultz
Speaker 1: and everything like that. But yeah, that's gonna be tough.
Speaker 1: You assume they're gonna rely on the ground game here
Speaker 1: a lot, because they should win this game pretty handily.
Speaker 1: And again they're seven and a half point favorites, I think,
Speaker 1: and the Raiders offense pat I don't know why. I mean,
Speaker 1: you see it since I've lost Henry Ruggs, Like without
Speaker 1: somebody stretching the field and opening it up underneath. They're
Speaker 1: just unable to really, you know, move the ball cohesively
Speaker 1: each and every week, so they're just struggling. Maybe that
Speaker 1: changes right now, maybe they finally get you know, Deshaun
Speaker 1: Jackson involved, but you know, absent that, it is tough
Speaker 1: to see them putting up too many points. I love
Speaker 1: it and you we talked about it. I said, Pat
Speaker 1: giving the teaser piece, and you were like, I love
Speaker 1: the under. So it is partially what I've done. And
Speaker 1: actually it's not one of our best bets, Pat, But
Speaker 1: I'm wondering what you think of the spread because it's
Speaker 1: seven and a half.
Speaker 4: That too much for me.
Speaker 1: But I did do a same game teaser here where
Speaker 1: I tease the total up to fifty six and a
Speaker 1: half and I'm taking the under, and then I tease
Speaker 1: Dallas down. It's hard for me to see that with
Speaker 1: or without cde Lamb. It's really hard for me to
Speaker 1: see Dallas losing this game at home on Thanksgiving where
Speaker 1: they're now being a little pressured here by the Eagles.
Speaker 1: They've got to come out with it, so I tease
Speaker 1: them down to one and a half. What do you
Speaker 1: think about that? Out of curiosity about that, two teams teaser.
Speaker 3: I like teasing it down. I agree, I have a
Speaker 3: hard team hard time seeing Dallas dump one to a
Speaker 3: reeling Raiders team at home on Thanksgiving. It just doesn't
Speaker 3: seem like something that could happen. I think it's a
Speaker 3: little too tall to bet it as is. You know,
Speaker 3: it's probably just going to be a stay away from
Speaker 3: me because I think the perception, and maybe this leads
Speaker 3: to the high total, is that you know, normally we
Speaker 3: can count of the Raiders defense being hot garbage juice,
Speaker 3: and that really hasn't been the case this year. I mean,
Speaker 3: they're not great against the run, They've been pretty good
Speaker 3: against the past. I mean they've got Max Crosby play
Speaker 3: like a young JJ Watts at left end, so.
Speaker 2: And they can actually cover a little bit.
Speaker 3: So that's part of why I think the total is
Speaker 3: so high, and maybe part of why I think the
Speaker 3: spread is so high.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 3: It's just hard to get a read on the how
Speaker 3: spunky the Raiders are going to be for this one,
Speaker 3: because they.
Speaker 2: Are going in the wrong direction. For sure.
Speaker 3: I don't think they're a horrible team, but right now
Speaker 3: it's just the trending. The trend for them is downward
Speaker 3: and I don't know. I just can't get on either
Speaker 3: side of this one at the line. But if you
Speaker 3: tease it down, I like that. I like it tease
Speaker 3: down to just Cowboys way basically.
Speaker 1: And I think further to your point on the total,
Speaker 1: by the way, is the fact that, like what did
Speaker 1: we see last week? We saw Joe Mixon with you know,
Speaker 1: thirty rush attempts, you know, and I think you've got
Speaker 1: both backs here in spoiler alert, I may be going
Speaker 1: there for one of my props. That's something that I
Speaker 1: think you're going to see again. I think you're going
Speaker 1: to see a lot of running the ball, running leads
Speaker 1: the clock, leads two more under. So yeah, I like it.
Speaker 1: I know nobody wants against scoring on Thanksgiving, but I
Speaker 1: do like that one for sure, Pat. And the first
Speaker 1: one on the Bears lines on a little luke warmont,
Speaker 1: but that one I am I am higher on. So
Speaker 1: for my second bet, Pat, I was actually going to
Speaker 1: take the Broncos getting three from the Chargers, but it
Speaker 1: moved to two at three, but it moved to two
Speaker 1: and a half. I don't like it that much. I
Speaker 1: do think this is a little bit of a letdown
Speaker 1: spot here for the Chargers after that big win, and
Speaker 1: you've got the Broncos at home off bye, but again
Speaker 1: at two and a half, I don't like it as much.
Speaker 1: So I'm going to a much much uglier game, and
Speaker 1: I'm going to bet against my own team, the Jets,
Speaker 1: and I'm going to take the Texans, who are now
Speaker 1: under a field goal. Was a field goal earlier, but
Speaker 1: it's not two and a half on the consensus lines
Speaker 1: over at bettingpros dot com to the Jets in Houston,
Speaker 1: pat one Zach Wilson was named the starter.
Speaker 4: I like this a little bit.
Speaker 1: And you put aside what you think of Wilson generally speaking, okay,
Speaker 1: font online, is that we have seen quarterbacks come back
Speaker 1: from a long layoff and just experience rust and I
Speaker 1: think you're going to see that from Wilson here, Like,
Speaker 1: regardless of how good he is this year or what
Speaker 1: he's going to be doing, I think he's going to
Speaker 1: be rusty in this game, and I think the Jets
Speaker 1: are going to struggle to put up points. There's no
Speaker 1: Michael Carter in this game. That does hurt. He was
Speaker 1: obviously a huge point of sort of emphasis of this offense,
Speaker 1: Jets are thirty first and overall dboa the Texans are
Speaker 1: at home. I realized, like you could say, it's the matchups,
Speaker 1: and last week the Titans heavy had injuries and the
Speaker 1: weather was bad. But they now have six sacks and
Speaker 1: ten turnovers in their last two games. The defense playing
Speaker 1: a little bit better. I think, to Rod Taller is
Speaker 1: lead's gonna play it safe. The Jets have covered the
Speaker 1: spread twice this season, Pat, neither of times on the road.
Speaker 1: Texans are actually three and one against spread at home.
Speaker 1: The Jets defense, which was one, sort of like hanging
Speaker 1: in there, I'll say generously, Pat, in the beginning of
Speaker 1: the season. They are no longer hanging in there. They
Speaker 1: are just kind of, you know whatever. So I think
Speaker 1: the Texans win this game if it's underfield goal. God,
Speaker 1: so gross, and I can't believe that this wound up
Speaker 1: being one of the bets. I wanted to say. Pat
Speaker 1: is leaving Ja's all right on the live stream, very
Speaker 1: concerned about his dog.
Speaker 4: Everyone you know, he's very, very worried about it.
Speaker 1: Sorry, Pat, I'm teasing you about the fact that you're
Speaker 1: so concerned about your dog and any noise that you
Speaker 1: hear from your dog that you just left the show
Speaker 1: in the middle of my rant. But that's fine, It's okay.
Speaker 1: So I am taking the Texans to a half. God,
Speaker 1: what's going on with the dog, Matt, What do you have?
Speaker 2: Well, he got the bone next to a plastic NERF
Speaker 2: gun launcher, so that was gonna make some some more
Speaker 2: substantial noise than just gnawing, So I had to move
Speaker 2: the NERF gun.
Speaker 4: Fair.
Speaker 1: It's a fair point. So pat Texans laying two and
Speaker 1: a half against the Jets.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you, Dan on the quarterback thing is
Speaker 3: a big thing. I mean it's like basically starting anew
Speaker 3: for Jack Wilson after the long layoff. And yeah, I
Speaker 3: mean a quarterback. We have seen it Russell Wilson. Uh yeah,
Speaker 3: look at how he struggled in his first two games
Speaker 3: back and not as long a layoff either or is
Speaker 3: it about the same I can't remember about the same. Yeah,
Speaker 3: So I agree with you, and I think the Houston
Speaker 3: defense is actually a little bit better than people.
Speaker 2: Maybe give them credit for the one wild card here.
Speaker 3: I think that could hurt you, as if to Rod
Speaker 3: Taylor throws three interceptions like that's the one possibility. But
Speaker 3: you know, if I was betting, if it was a
Speaker 3: prop bet on interceptions Wilson versus Taylor, I would definitely
Speaker 3: be betting Wilson with more interceptions in this.
Speaker 1: Gay so and again, we saw Taylor, by the way,
Speaker 1: in that first game back after his long layoff against Miami,
Speaker 1: look absolutely terrible, right, and that's it. And he looked
Speaker 1: at least a little more competent last week. And he
Speaker 1: has the rushing ability which can extend drives and everything
Speaker 1: like that. So again, I think they can play conservatively here.
Speaker 1: They can beat the Jets pretty easily with Zach Wilson
Speaker 1: in their center. Hope I'm wrong from a personal perspective,
Speaker 1: so I can just enjoy, you know, watching the Jets
Speaker 1: maybe squeak out one of their you know, three or
Speaker 1: four victories on the year. But I do think the
Speaker 1: Texans at home with Wilson's first came back cover this
Speaker 1: short spread. So I will take it with them laying
Speaker 1: two and a half. Again, it's been bouncing back and
Speaker 1: forth between three and two and a half, So if
Speaker 1: I see it at two and a half, that's when
Speaker 1: I would strike it. Set three. I'm going to stay
Speaker 1: with last batpat.
Speaker 3: What he got Okay, so I've got the Rams plus
Speaker 3: one against my beloved Green Bay Packers Dan, and it's
Speaker 3: just i'd like, it's so injury related this one. The
Speaker 3: Packers are just like decimated now and they keep adding
Speaker 3: names to the list unfortunately, like all these not just
Speaker 3: like regular starters, like blue chip guys. Elton Jenkins is
Speaker 3: a big one because they are already without David Baktiori.
Speaker 3: We found out this week that Baktiari had gone undergone
Speaker 3: an initial clean up surgery, which is why his return
Speaker 3: has been delayed. And I mean he did tear his
Speaker 3: acl last New Year's Eve Day, I think, so maybe
Speaker 3: not a surprise that it's taken him so long, but man,
Speaker 3: without Jenkins and boch Tiari like the two anchors of
Speaker 3: you know, maybe the best left side of an offensive
Speaker 3: line in football.
Speaker 2: Rashan Gary not sure about his status. He hyper extended
Speaker 2: his elbow.
Speaker 3: Against two weeks ago, did not play last week in
Speaker 3: the loss of the Vikings. And that's huge because he
Speaker 3: has turned into, you know, one of the premier defensive
Speaker 3: players in the league. And Aaron Jones remains out too,
Speaker 3: so I'm not as big a deal. I mean, aj
Speaker 3: Dillon is terrific, but boy, they're just so under man
Speaker 3: and then you've got the Rams coming in fresh Like,
Speaker 3: I think it's going to be really hard for the
Speaker 3: Packers to win that game. I know they're undefeated in
Speaker 3: Lambeau this year, but you know, give me the money line, bet,
Speaker 3: I think, rather than the one point. Sure, yeah, you
Speaker 3: know I'll always take the money line over the one point.
Speaker 4: Well you might as well.
Speaker 1: I mean, like, I mean, there was a tie, there
Speaker 1: was a tie obviously with the Steelers in the lines. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the money line is you know, minus one ten anyway,
Speaker 1: so it doesn't really matter. But yeah, I agree with
Speaker 1: you on this one. Again.
Speaker 4: The offensive line.
Speaker 1: Injuries for the Packers just really tough to overcome at
Speaker 1: this point. And you have a limited Aaron Rodgers, who
Speaker 1: I mean, he's fantastic and he threw for over three
Speaker 1: hundred yards four touchdown passes in those last game. But
Speaker 1: still against that defense. You've got Von Miller now fully
Speaker 1: sort of you know, ready to go and integrated. You've
Speaker 1: got Obj now sort of you know, another week to
Speaker 1: sort of get acclimated to the offense. Yeah, I agree
Speaker 1: with you. I do think the Rams win this game.
Speaker 1: One of my favorite bets another one that I teased up.
Speaker 1: I'd love for it to get to one and a half,
Speaker 1: so I can get it over seven and a half.
Speaker 1: But I'll take them at seven because I do think
Speaker 1: that you know, worst case scenario, they you know, they
Speaker 1: the Packers eke out a squeaker here. But I like
Speaker 1: the Rams to win this game. So I am backing
Speaker 1: you as well on that one, and I will try you.
Speaker 1: I'm going to take a total here for my last bet,
Speaker 1: it's the Titans and the Patriots under forty four. You've
Speaker 1: just got two really solid defenses here in this game.
Speaker 1: The Titans are twelfth in defensive DVOA. Like, I don't
Speaker 1: know when that happened, right, their their defense was kind
Speaker 1: of something that we felt like we could pick on
Speaker 1: earlier in the season. But the Pats obviously have a
Speaker 1: great defense there second to DVOA defensive DVOA.
Speaker 4: They both run the ball a time.
Speaker 1: The Titans run the ball forty six percent of the time,
Speaker 1: the Pats forty five percent of the time. Both that's
Speaker 1: top ten in the NFL. They both play slow. The
Speaker 1: Titans are twenty third in neutral situation pace of play.
Speaker 1: The Pats are twenty fourth in neutral situation base of play.
Speaker 1: So this is going to be a slow, methodical, run
Speaker 1: heavy game and the Titans are gonna have no weapons.
Speaker 1: I'm not expecting aj Brown to suit up in this one.
Speaker 1: I know he had negative X rays, but even if
Speaker 1: he does, they're just gonna double them, you know, give
Speaker 1: safety help over at the top. Anyway, So you look
Speaker 1: at the games without Derrick Henry for the Titans forty
Speaker 1: four points against the Rams, forty four points against the Saints,
Speaker 1: thirty five points against the Texans, and I realized two
Speaker 1: good defensive teams, but they'll have one here as well.
Speaker 1: And then the Texans game was you know, in the rain.
Speaker 1: But this is just a slow defensive game, Pat, I
Speaker 1: don't feel I don't have good like feeling on who's
Speaker 1: going to.
Speaker 4: Cover the six and a half points spread.
Speaker 1: But it does strike me as just a game that's
Speaker 1: not gonna, you know, involve a ton of points here,
Speaker 1: a lot of running slow. So forty four is not
Speaker 1: like a huge total or anything like that. It's on
Speaker 1: the lower side. But I do think this one comes.
Speaker 3: Under Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the side. I was
Speaker 3: going to ask which way, because yeah, same here. I mean,
Speaker 3: I've got New England in a survivor pool where I'm
Speaker 3: kind of limping along and don't have that many options left.
Speaker 3: But like, I don't feel great about them covering that
Speaker 3: biggest spread, especially against a Titans team that's been.
Speaker 2: Kind of a giant slayer this year.
Speaker 3: So not that you know, we consider the Patriots giants yet,
Speaker 3: but it's it's kind of interesting they're playing so well.
Speaker 3: But yes, the formula for them playing so well is
Speaker 3: defense and ball control and you know, keeping everything sort
Speaker 3: of manageable, like in Belichick is doing a great job
Speaker 3: with that.
Speaker 2: No surprise there.
Speaker 3: You mentioned that both teams are like in the bottom
Speaker 3: eight or bottom nine as far as pace. I think
Speaker 3: the under is a pretty good play here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again something flukey can always happen, but this
Speaker 1: strikes me as a game I'm going to be shocked
Speaker 1: given just the injuries, especially for the Titans, if this
Speaker 1: game goes over.
Speaker 4: So I do like that.
Speaker 1: All right, let me recap very quickly, pat you like
Speaker 1: the getting three against the Bears, the Raiders and the
Speaker 1: Cowboys under. We'll call it fifty and a half right now.
Speaker 1: It was fifty one earlier and the Rams getting one
Speaker 1: from the Packers. I like the Steelers getting four and
Speaker 1: a half from the Bengals, the Texans laying two and
Speaker 1: a half to the Jets, and the Titans, and the
Speaker 1: Pats under forty four points. So here's what I'd like
Speaker 1: to do now, Pat, Let's quickly run through the remaining spreads,
Speaker 1: talk about whether or not we have a lean one
Speaker 1: way or another, we like any of them. Then let's
Speaker 1: get to some player profits for the Thanksgiving game.
Speaker 4: Sound good to you?
Speaker 2: Sounds great?
Speaker 4: Dan, dog under control?
Speaker 1: He is.
Speaker 3: He's still gnawing very contentedly so, and I think he
Speaker 3: would be for the next four hours if I let him.
Speaker 1: Your dog is better than mine, So we said, Pat,
Speaker 1: that for the Cowboys laying seven and a half here
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving, that's just a stay away for you. You
Speaker 1: think the Cowboys win, but you don't confidently feel it's
Speaker 1: going to be by seven and a half point correct?
Speaker 2: Correct, Yeah, I'm.
Speaker 4: Gonna agree with you. Again.
Speaker 1: This is a spot where I tease him down if
Speaker 1: you can find a teaser piece. Again, I've done it
Speaker 1: in the same game, and I've teased the total up.
Speaker 1: But I've also done it with the Steelers getting four
Speaker 1: and a half, moving that up to ten and a half,
Speaker 1: So that's also where i'd go the Bills. This spread
Speaker 1: is moving here, Pat, it was six, it was four originally.
Speaker 1: My guess is because the running back injuries. Maybe I
Speaker 1: don't know, or maybe money's coming in here on the Bills.
Speaker 1: It's moved to six. Now it's six and a half
Speaker 1: as of this moment for the consensus spread. That's a
Speaker 1: big number. I do think the Bills win this game, Pat,
Speaker 1: but six and a half against the Saints in New Orleans,
Speaker 1: I don't know, it feels like something I might want
Speaker 1: to avoid.
Speaker 3: You know, I'm probably gonna play the Bills for like
Speaker 3: maybe a one unit play here. Like I don't know
Speaker 3: if we can still call the Bills defense great after
Speaker 3: what Jonathan Taylor did to them last week, but like
Speaker 3: this is still a really good put.
Speaker 2: It this way.
Speaker 3: I don't know how this New Orleans offense is going
Speaker 3: to move the ball against the Bills. It just seems
Speaker 3: like not only having Trevor Simmy in a quarterback, likely
Speaker 3: not having Alvin Kamara, perhaps not mark ingram at running
Speaker 3: back either, but like no Ryan Ramcheck at right tackle.
Speaker 3: I mean, he didn't practice again, yesterday Arren Armstead, but
Speaker 3: I think got a limited.
Speaker 2: Practice in that would help.
Speaker 3: But like if Armstein Ramcheck were both out against the Bills,
Speaker 3: it would be pretty hopeless. So I have to take
Speaker 3: the Bills in this. And plus you have to know
Speaker 3: they're going to be smarting after what the Colts did
Speaker 3: with them last week pretty much just embarrassed them.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't know what Sean.
Speaker 3: Payton could possibly have his up his sleeve to get
Speaker 3: more than you know, seventeen to twenty points on the
Speaker 3: board this week against Buffalo Gas.
Speaker 1: Can you explain to me, Pat why they don't go
Speaker 1: to Taysom Hill and just try something like they went
Speaker 1: to him last.
Speaker 4: Year when we were all like what are you doing?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 4: Why they won't go to him this year?
Speaker 1: And especially after that big extension, right, which is weird
Speaker 1: obviously the extension, but still why not make that switch,
Speaker 1: especially in this game?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 3: I mean, like, looking at the numbers, they haven't been
Speaker 3: that awful for Simmon, at least not in the first
Speaker 3: two games.
Speaker 2: But it's all been garbage time.
Speaker 3: It's all He's doing everything in the fourth quarter after
Speaker 3: the Saints are hopelessly out of yeah, and you give,
Speaker 3: like Taysom Hill all this money to just be the
Speaker 3: uh you know. It's and I'm totally getting ahead of
Speaker 3: myself here, Dan, It's why I kind of like Taysom
Speaker 3: Hill is in any time touchdown.
Speaker 1: All right, well, all right, we're gonna get that. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I love it.
Speaker 2: I love it.
Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to the Falcons on the road
Speaker 1: against the Jaguars. Falcons playing one. Any thoughts on this?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'm probably gonna put a little.
Speaker 3: Something on Jacksonville in this because I think Jacksonville has
Speaker 3: actually like an NFL caliber, credible defense and Atlanta is
Speaker 3: just even coming off the I don't like betting against
Speaker 3: teams coming off bad, embarrassing losses if they're good enough
Speaker 3: to do something about it. I don't think Atlanta is
Speaker 3: good enough to do something about it.
Speaker 1: All right, to stay away from me, But I do
Speaker 1: think that I might go with the Falcons if I
Speaker 1: had to go somewhere. It depends on if Corduo Patterson
Speaker 1: is back for this one, which obviously we need to
Speaker 1: wait and see, because without it there forget about it
Speaker 1: their offensivest. But I just can't back the Jaguars I
Speaker 1: don't care whether or not all the sort of metrics
Speaker 1: say I should back the Jaguars, which basically does say
Speaker 1: every single game. I just can't do it with Ervin Meyer.
Speaker 1: Interesting one here, Pat Bucks visiting the Colts laying three.
Speaker 1: I mean, Colts coming off that giant win against Buffalo.
Speaker 4: What do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is where I start to sound like a
Speaker 3: broken record den saying that I don't have a lien
Speaker 3: on you knowpe near these games, and you know it's
Speaker 3: a betting podcast, and like, saying that you don't have
Speaker 3: a lien on a lot of games is kind of
Speaker 3: a bad way to go about doing things. But I
Speaker 3: really don't I mean, the line seems pretty spot on.
Speaker 2: You know, if I if I were going to bet
Speaker 2: this game at all, I would probably go with the
Speaker 2: home dog here. But you know, with Tampa coming off
Speaker 2: the Monday.
Speaker 3: Night er, sort of a short work week, you know,
Speaker 3: presumably they're getting a little extra time off for the
Speaker 3: holidays too.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I just I don't have a strong lean
Speaker 2: in this one.
Speaker 1: So I want to make it clear in my opinion,
Speaker 1: at least, if you're on a betting podcast, there is
Speaker 1: nothing wrong with saying you don't have a lean on
Speaker 1: something because as much as people might want to bet
Speaker 1: every single game, and we have, I guess it's come
Speaker 1: on the show Ian McMillan, who is doing just that
Speaker 1: this entire year, God bless him, but that's not what
Speaker 1: we do. Like we pick our spots. And I agree
Speaker 1: with you, I actually have no feel for this game.
Speaker 1: I have no idea how that this game is going
Speaker 1: to play out. The Bucks have been a little disappointing,
Speaker 1: and I know they beat up on the Giants, but
Speaker 1: I'm not really taking anything from that. And the Colts
Speaker 1: have been playing extremely, extremely well not it does sound
Speaker 1: like B to A and may come back in this one,
Speaker 1: Pat and that's gonna be. That's gonna be the irresistible
Speaker 1: Forrest meets the Immovable object over there with Jonathan Taylor.
Speaker 1: But it's something where I just I'm gonna watch the game.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna enjoy it, watch the game without any sort
Speaker 1: of betting. I'm not gonna watch this one, but I
Speaker 1: probably I'm gonna also sit out from a betting perspective.
Speaker 1: That's the Panthers visiting the Dolphins, and the Panthers are
Speaker 1: laying now one and a half. I think it was
Speaker 1: one earlier when Joe and I looked at it, so
Speaker 1: any thoughts on that now?
Speaker 3: Another one where I pretty much just threw my hands
Speaker 3: up in a pool where we have to pick out
Speaker 3: of your game against the spread. I took Carolina just
Speaker 3: thinking they maybe keep the Cam Newton mojo rolling.
Speaker 2: But you know, that's about all I could pin anything on,
Speaker 2: and it.
Speaker 3: Just didn't feel like a didn't feel like a real
Speaker 3: confident pick.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's I would go with the Panthers if I
Speaker 1: had to go somewhere. I don't, thankfully, I would just
Speaker 1: because of the defense. They are still again that that
Speaker 1: seventh playoff spot in the NFC is going, it's it's
Speaker 1: really made things fun because every team is basically involved
Speaker 1: in it. And obviously the Panthers have have gone all
Speaker 1: in on this season, you know, given the trade for
Speaker 1: Gilmour and everything they're sort of doing, and I think
Speaker 1: the defense is going to be enough here to you know,
Speaker 1: have them eat out a win in at one and
Speaker 1: a half. I would go there, but again, not somewhere
Speaker 1: I want to go if I can avoid it. We
Speaker 1: talked already about the Jets and the Texans, and the
Speaker 1: Texans are laying two and a half points. I will
Speaker 1: say again, I see a couple of threes at points
Speaker 1: bet and fox bet again. I don't like it there,
Speaker 1: but the consensus sign of betting pros is two and
Speaker 1: a half. It is where I would go. The Pats
Speaker 1: are laying the six and a half to the Titans.
Speaker 1: We both agreed, it's just a game that we kind
Speaker 1: of want to stay away from entirely other than the
Speaker 1: total correct Yeah, okay, very good. The Eagles pat are
Speaker 1: visiting the Giants laying three and a half here. I
Speaker 1: think it was three when it opened up. After the
Speaker 1: game on Monday night it went to three and a half.
Speaker 4: What do you think?
Speaker 1: Eagles are rolling? Giants look like in disarray. But it's
Speaker 1: a divisional game. Seems too easy to pick the Eagles almost.
Speaker 3: It does seem too easy, And it feels like I'm
Speaker 3: walking into a snare trap here day. But so maybe
Speaker 3: I'll be hanging upside down by my feet after I
Speaker 3: bet the Eagles on this one. But that's kind of
Speaker 3: it momentum. I mean, the Eagles have been they've been
Speaker 3: getting it done with this bizarrely conservative game plan. I mean,
Speaker 3: it's totally working. They're playing Ravens.
Speaker 2: Ball basically, and it's worked very well for them.
Speaker 3: Their defense is credible, and the Giants just look completely.
Speaker 2: Lost on offense on Monday Night. It's worriesome.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, how soon can they circle the wagons
Speaker 3: after getting rid of Jason Garrett? You know, Jason Garrett
Speaker 3: may it may cure some ailments, but not everyone. And
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones just look terrible on Monday night. My goodness.
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna take the Eagles here, even though it
Speaker 3: feels suspect like I am walking into a dark alley.
Speaker 1: For certain, if I had to go one way, it
Speaker 1: would be the Eagles. But it definitely just feels like
Speaker 1: the books are saying, go ahead, take the Eagles.
Speaker 4: You know you want to take the Eagles. Take the Eagles.
Speaker 1: And that always scares me a little bit enough where
Speaker 1: I will second guess it. But again, if I'm in
Speaker 1: a pool like yours where I have to go somewhere,
Speaker 1: I've got to go with the Eagles. But again, divisional
Speaker 1: game home dog seems too easy. It gets me a
Speaker 1: little worried with it. But yeah, I would go that
Speaker 1: way if I had to, just because that seems right.
Speaker 1: I mentioned Pat the Broncos and the Chargers. The spread
Speaker 1: is two and a half here with the Broncos as
Speaker 1: home dogs. Any lean at all on this game ever.
Speaker 3: So slightly too the home dog with the Broncos, but
Speaker 3: not one that I'm probably going to play.
Speaker 2: I think that's just who I picked in that pool.
Speaker 1: Yep, I agree, I had to pick it, I'd still
Speaker 1: go Broncos two and a half, But you know, below three,
Speaker 1: it's a game I want to stay away from. Vikings
Speaker 1: are visiting the forty nine Ers. The consensus line is three.
Speaker 1: Oddly enough, my book is at three and a half
Speaker 1: on DraftKings, which usually I always feel like the spot
Speaker 1: I'd want to go is always on the other way
Speaker 1: with DraftKings, they're always I feel like a little sharper
Speaker 1: than what I want. But at three and a half,
Speaker 1: that's mildly intriguing there with the Vikings.
Speaker 4: But what do you think about it? At three?
Speaker 3: That half point would make a world of difference, considering
Speaker 3: that every game the Vikings play is a you know,
Speaker 3: one possession game. Yeah. I've got some friends up in
Speaker 3: Minnesota who have had years taken off their lives by
Speaker 3: this Viking season so far, and getting the hook there
Speaker 3: would be fantastic. I'm hoping I can find it somewhere
Speaker 3: because I'd like to bet the Vikings at three and
Speaker 3: a half. At three, I'll be a little less enthusiastic.
Speaker 3: May put a little something on them anyway, though.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I do think it's worth it.
Speaker 1: And again, shan you know Kyle Shanahan not he's a
Speaker 1: little Mike Tomliny. You kind of want to back him
Speaker 1: as a dog and maybe not so much as a
Speaker 1: favorite in this one. So yeah, it is hard attach season.
Speaker 1: And again that's basically it. There are a couple of
Speaker 1: random strays out there at three and a half with DraftKings,
Speaker 1: but for the most part it's at three. So yeah,
Speaker 1: if you get three and a half, I'd be willing
Speaker 1: to go to the Vikings. I'll probably stay away from
Speaker 1: it just because, man, I hate backing Kirk Cousins. It
Speaker 1: makes my heart hurt. Ravens are at home here here
Speaker 1: Pat against the Browns. Consensus line is three and a half.
Speaker 1: That MGM is at four our sponsor, but it's at
Speaker 1: three and a half for the most part out there.
Speaker 1: Weird game, Pat, I mean, you've got Kareem Hunt was
Speaker 1: just designated to return from I r as was Jack Conklin.
Speaker 1: Don't know whether or not they're going to be able
Speaker 1: to suit up here. You've got the illness concerns for
Speaker 1: the Ravens with Lamar Jackson and Markis Brown. I don't
Speaker 1: know pat home Ravens laying three and a half.
Speaker 3: Well, you know, I'm in that pool, Dan, where Michael
Speaker 3: Beller's pool where we thirty two of us are are
Speaker 3: drawn team before the season and half to bet that
Speaker 3: team against the spread every week.
Speaker 2: And I drew the.
Speaker 3: Ravens this week, clipping along at four and six with them.
Speaker 3: So whatever I pick for this game, you probably want
Speaker 3: to go the opposite way, a game that I will
Speaker 3: not be betting myself. But I did pick the Ravens
Speaker 3: at home. I always have a hard time going against
Speaker 3: the Ravens at home, and that's kind of hurt me.
Speaker 3: I don't think they're great ats in home games this year,
Speaker 3: So yeah, and I mean it is worrisome the Cleveland
Speaker 3: is getting healthier again. I mean, Conklin would be a
Speaker 3: big deal for them, and Hunt too. I mean to
Speaker 3: give them that two headed attack, which they need because
Speaker 3: their passing game is not very potent.
Speaker 2: So slight lean towards.
Speaker 3: The ravens here, but certainly not a recommendation to all
Speaker 3: of our friends out there.
Speaker 1: And again, designated to return doesn't mean, of course, that
Speaker 1: they're going to come back this week necessarily. It just
Speaker 1: means that they practice, you know, twenty one day windows open,
Speaker 1: so so hopefully they get back. Alex El, who is
Speaker 1: here with us, is asking what do you think about
Speaker 1: the total?
Speaker 4: Pat? He likes the under. It's forty five right now.
Speaker 1: Now what's interesting, Pat, is this is all over the
Speaker 1: place from what I can see, And my guess is
Speaker 1: it's because of the health considerations. Forty five is consensus,
Speaker 1: but it's all the way up to forty six and
Speaker 1: a half at bet MGM, it's at forty six at FanDuel,
Speaker 1: it's forty five at DraftKings. So it's a little all
Speaker 1: over the place right now. Consensus at forty five, but
Speaker 1: you can talk about it if you wanted forty six
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 4: Any lean on that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we also have to take over unders for tiebreaker
Speaker 3: purposes in that pool, and I did take the under
Speaker 3: in this, so I'm with Alex on that.
Speaker 1: One way to go, Alex and Yeah, I'd be inclined
Speaker 1: to agree, just because of the you know how the
Speaker 1: Browns offense is playing right now in the Ravens sort
Speaker 1: of being a little up and down, and again they
Speaker 1: run the ball a lot, even if it's less than
Speaker 1: previous seasons. Last one Monday Night Football. If you bet
Speaker 1: this game, you are an incredible human. The Seahawks are
Speaker 1: getting one in Washington right now. Any thoughts on it whatsoever?
Speaker 3: Pat, No, I completely threw my hands up in the
Speaker 3: air when I saw the line on this one, Dan like,
Speaker 3: I mean, I might have actually flipped a coin to
Speaker 3: make a pick in that point spread pool.
Speaker 4: On Man, this is correct.
Speaker 1: I like it. Okay, there you go. Let's get to
Speaker 1: some props, Pat. So here's what you can do. By
Speaker 1: the way, guys, if you are here with us, if
Speaker 1: you're listening to this, you hopefully know this right now
Speaker 1: if you follow us. But at Betting Pros, we have
Speaker 1: the prop bet sheet sheet.
Speaker 4: Okay.
Speaker 1: What that does is it compares the available lines in
Speaker 1: the market to consensus projections, which we have, and it
Speaker 1: sort of recommends based on the differences between the two.
Speaker 4: It's a great way just to frame it.
Speaker 1: You can sort by game, you can sort by player,
Speaker 1: you can sort buy stack whatever you want to do.
Speaker 4: So it's a really good way to do it.
Speaker 1: Uh, patit. Let's start with the first game, Chicago against Detroit.
Speaker 1: Do you have a player prop that you were eyeing
Speaker 1: in this game?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: So, Darnelle Mooney over fifty six and a half is
Speaker 3: pretty compelling considering that he got sixteen targets with Alan
Speaker 3: Robinson out last week. Sure, if we've gotten definitive word
Speaker 3: on Robinson, but I suspect he is going to be
Speaker 3: out again.
Speaker 4: Yep, if he's in.
Speaker 1: Does that matter to you, by the way, because I
Speaker 1: don't think it would for me. I think I'd still
Speaker 1: take the over on it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, like, is he that much more of
Speaker 3: a threat to Mooney's target load than Marquise Goodwin is?
Speaker 2: Probably not?
Speaker 4: So Yeah.
Speaker 3: I just plus, we know that the Detroit secondary isn't good.
Speaker 3: They haven't given up a lot of passing yards simply
Speaker 3: because it's really easy to move the all on them
Speaker 3: on the ground. But I still like Mooney as sort
Speaker 3: of the de facto alpha receiver here. Fifty six and
Speaker 3: a half seems like kind of a low bar to clear.
Speaker 3: So that's that's my first one.
Speaker 1: I do love it, and actually what I'm doing PAT
Speaker 1: is for fantasy purposes. I do projections for every fantasy
Speaker 1: relevant player. Again, these are very early projections which I
Speaker 1: refined throughout the week and again this Thursday game, so
Speaker 1: I am just looking it up. I will say that
Speaker 1: on our prop at Chichi's shows you what the best
Speaker 1: available book is for these prop and actually at FANDLE
Speaker 1: it's fifty five and a half, so you can get
Speaker 1: a little bit extra even on that as opposed to
Speaker 1: fifty six and a half.
Speaker 4: But I am right there with you. I am looking
Speaker 4: what I.
Speaker 1: Haven't projected at and I have him projected at sixty
Speaker 1: three point two receiving yards PAT. So there you go,
Speaker 1: we are there with the over very good. And again
Speaker 1: I've mentioned this, but PAT is basically probably the most
Speaker 1: accurate Fantasy rancor for like a decade. So you have
Speaker 1: a pretty good bet here on player props. All right,
Speaker 1: any other ones that you're eyeing in this game, PAT
Speaker 1: that you like one way or another on it? Before
Speaker 1: I get a couple, I guess I can go through.
Speaker 4: Go ahead.
Speaker 2: Generally, I'm not a big anytime TD better.
Speaker 3: I think there you don't get great odds generally, but
Speaker 3: because this is going to be such an unsightly game,
Speaker 3: and because I need action to make it interesting to me, Dan,
Speaker 3: you know, and so I have something to watch instead
Speaker 3: them talking to my family on Thanksgiving. I think I'm
Speaker 3: going to take the anytime TD and Cole combats, Okay, yes,
Speaker 3: and I just you know again, sort of paucity of
Speaker 3: target options for the Bears with Robinson outs and Comet
Speaker 3: is that big body when they get close to the
Speaker 3: pen zone and then one just I mean, this is
Speaker 3: a fade of the Bears offense. I like inn anytime
Speaker 3: Lions defensive touchdown at plus six fifty, Oh wow, I
Speaker 3: could very much see a pick six, a fumble, recovery something,
Speaker 3: So you know, plus six fifty. I'm not confidently predicting
Speaker 3: one by any means, but I kind of like those odds.
Speaker 3: And I'm gonna put a little little something down on that.
Speaker 4: All right.
Speaker 1: I like it, all right, getting a little crazy here,
Speaker 1: I will say that Alex l who's also here again,
Speaker 1: you know, a bunch of people are here with us
Speaker 1: asking about stuff. He did ask earlier on the Cole comet,
Speaker 1: so you like the touchdown, but he did ask on
Speaker 1: the receiving yards, which I'm looking at right now, looks
Speaker 1: like thirty five and a half. I don't really I
Speaker 1: think betting cole Comet receiving yards Pat is something that's
Speaker 1: too scary for me to really go near. Even though
Speaker 1: the projection again on our prop Betchichi does have him
Speaker 1: for forty I believe forty point seventy nine, so it
Speaker 1: would clear that number. But what do you think any
Speaker 1: lean on that.
Speaker 2: I kind of like it, you know, again, I think
Speaker 2: I'm a limited number of target options for the Bears
Speaker 2: against a pretty soft defense, So I do kind of
Speaker 2: like it.
Speaker 4: Okay, so I do.
Speaker 1: So I do want to ask about the running backs, Pat,
Speaker 1: because I do think that running backs are sort of
Speaker 1: where it's at. The line keeps moving up, by the way,
Speaker 1: and the one thing with player prop lines, Pat, is
Speaker 1: they move quickly. I mean, at least as far as
Speaker 1: what I can see right. There are a lot of
Speaker 1: times I like the line. I look and it's like
Speaker 1: four or five yards different the next morning when I look.
Speaker 1: Montgomery has a huge line right now, Pat. Now, of
Speaker 1: course he torched the Lions in their first game sort
Speaker 1: of early on, but it's eighty and a half is
Speaker 1: the total that's like, I would love to find a
Speaker 1: way to take the over on a daved Montgomery rushing
Speaker 1: yards prop. But that line is I don't want to
Speaker 1: go under it because I do think there's a scenario
Speaker 1: where they just run all day. But it's I gotta
Speaker 1: stay away from that one. What do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the one thing that gives me pauseive
Speaker 3: like I thought that was looking like an under two
Speaker 3: is that the Lions have been a massive run funnel defense.
Speaker 3: The opponents are running against them. I'm basically fifty percent
Speaker 3: of their offensive snaps. So you know, unpresumably that the Bears,
Speaker 3: with Andy Dalton that quarterback, have incentive to be run
Speaker 3: heavy themselves. Plus, now that Montgomery's been back for a
Speaker 3: little bit, I think they might feel a little bit
Speaker 3: more comfortable giving him twenty two to twenty three carries
Speaker 3: in this one.
Speaker 2: So it's a stay away.
Speaker 3: But yeah, that is I definitely raised an eyebrow on
Speaker 3: myself when I saw that number.
Speaker 1: I can tell you one that I like here if
Speaker 1: we look on the other side of the running backs,
Speaker 1: I probably don't love it enough to go crazy with
Speaker 1: it or anything like that, But you know, the under
Speaker 1: swift is at sixty five and a half rushing yards.
Speaker 1: The Bears aren't that great necessarily against the run. They've
Speaker 1: got injuries of course with their run stuffers here, and
Speaker 1: we've seen it now with Dan Campbell Patt we talked
Speaker 1: about in the Fantasy Show. I know only got I
Speaker 1: believe fourteen carries in this last game. But obviously they're
Speaker 1: going to commit to the run. Not as much of
Speaker 1: the passing downs work here for DeAndre Swift through the air,
Speaker 1: but a lot on the ground. That's what they want
Speaker 1: to do. In a game where the spread is three,
Speaker 1: you have to assume that Swift is probably going to
Speaker 1: see upwards of fifteen carries.
Speaker 4: Here in this game, so long as he stays healthy.
Speaker 1: Jamal Williams did in factor in that much, so I
Speaker 1: kind of lean the over here at sixty five and
Speaker 1: a half for his rushing yards.
Speaker 4: What do you think of that?
Speaker 3: Yeah, you may have talked me into that. And we
Speaker 3: have seen this abrupt shift from sort of the Alvin
Speaker 3: Kamara type usage. Well, actually the shift has kind of
Speaker 3: mirrored the Alvin Kamara usage from last year, where it was,
Speaker 3: you know, doing significant damage as a pass catcher and
Speaker 3: sort of limited to maybe twelve to fifteen carries a
Speaker 3: game to the Kamara of early this year where he
Speaker 3: was just getting these massive twenty twenty five carry games
Speaker 3: and not so much usage in the passing game. That's
Speaker 3: how things have moved with Swift too. And you know
Speaker 3: that that Steelers game where he had what thirty three
Speaker 3: carries yep, last week over over twenty the way things
Speaker 3: have been trending. I do think the over there is
Speaker 3: a pretty good looking play.
Speaker 1: I mean, it does seem pretty clear when the game
Speaker 1: is close, Pat, they're gonna try to lean into the run,
Speaker 1: as they probably should because they've got absolutely nothing going
Speaker 1: on in the passing game. So yeah, that's one that
Speaker 1: I was really eyeing the over sixty five and a
Speaker 1: half for DeAndre Swift. All right, let's get to the
Speaker 1: Raiders visiting Dallas. Any props that you were eyeing in
Speaker 1: this one?
Speaker 3: Yeah, just one, and it's a sort of a strange one.
Speaker 3: But I sort of like Josh Jacobs over twenty and
Speaker 3: a half receiving yards.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean for recent recent games, Pat, I mean
Speaker 1: recent games have sort of you know, he's been heavily
Speaker 1: involved in the.
Speaker 3: He has his last five games. The receiving yardage twenty nine,
Speaker 3: thirty nine, nineteen, twenty and twenty four, so he's beat
Speaker 3: it three out of five games and the two misses
Speaker 3: were by one and a half and half a point.
Speaker 3: You know, know, Henry Ruggs, They've got to go somewhere
Speaker 3: with the ball here, and maybe more important, Jalen Richard
Speaker 3: was a healthy scratch last week. That might be one
Speaker 3: of those where I wait to bet this until I
Speaker 3: see the inactives and see whether Jalen Richard is active.
Speaker 3: But they have made more of a concerted effort post Gruden.
Speaker 3: It seems like to get Jacob's back involved in the
Speaker 3: passing game, and we know he has the skill set
Speaker 3: to do it right. And that's been kind of dismaying
Speaker 3: for these Josh Jacobs investors in fantasy that he's just
Speaker 3: been this between the tackle sledgehammer and has not been
Speaker 3: allowed to show off the versatility we know he has.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it does seem like, you know, the
Speaker 1: defensive philosophy right now is take away Darren Waller and
Speaker 1: you know, if you got to go underneath, do it.
Speaker 1: But they'll let that happen. Yeah, you know what, Pat,
Speaker 1: I didn't even think about it. I didn't even think
Speaker 1: about it, and I think that that's a good one.
Speaker 1: Talk me into it.
Speaker 4: I love it. Okay, that is a good one.
Speaker 1: By the way, I will say, just if you're here
Speaker 1: and you ask a question, I'm going to put it up.
Speaker 1: This is a big one, Pat, for the last game
Speaker 1: that we missed. Michael Fuller wants to know whether we
Speaker 1: like plus money Kiro Santos over one and a half
Speaker 1: field goals undraftings. Look, you get plus money, I'm okay
Speaker 1: with it. You're indoors, you know it's fine with me.
Speaker 1: You really really gotta love betting props if you are
Speaker 1: going in here and betting over unders on field goals made.
Speaker 4: But any thoughts on.
Speaker 2: That Pat Michael might have.
Speaker 3: He might be onto something here, because I mean, are
Speaker 3: we going to bet on Andy Dalton the convert touchdowns
Speaker 3: when they get it into the red zone? Like tending
Speaker 3: to fade Andy Dalton in those situations? Oh yeah, Plus
Speaker 3: we know, uh, the weather's not going to be a factor.
Speaker 3: I'm kind of with my he might have talked me
Speaker 3: into that one.
Speaker 2: I like that one.
Speaker 1: Actually, I hadn't thought about it whatsoever, Michael. If I'm
Speaker 1: being honest, I did not consider kicker props, but yeah,
Speaker 1: you know what and on DraftKings, I'm gonna I'm gonna
Speaker 1: trail you with that, Michael, So make sure to hit
Speaker 1: us up on Twitter if we hit that one, because
Speaker 1: I do like it. You're write in a controlled environment.
Speaker 1: And yeah, receiving arts for Jacob's on Fando, it's nineteen
Speaker 1: and a half, Thatt, What is that the line that
Speaker 1: you saw as well? Or do you have a worst line?
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't have it in front of me, Dan, Sorry, okay.
Speaker 1: No, no, no, whatever your line was, That's why I
Speaker 1: didn't know what you took the over at Oh.
Speaker 2: Wait, wait wait, I'm sorry.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Jacob's line.
Speaker 2: Oh, the Jacobs line twenty and a half. Yeah, so sorry,
Speaker 2: I thought you were talking about the Santos line. My bad, bad.
Speaker 1: Now, if I thought you had the Santos line at
Speaker 1: your disposal, Pat, you would be the regular co host
Speaker 1: of this podcast, because I don't know too many people
Speaker 1: who have it.
Speaker 4: I was not expecting that.
Speaker 1: No, I meant the Josh Jacobs line again, because what
Speaker 1: on the prop beat cheet Chi, what shows you is
Speaker 1: the best of alb a line in the market per
Speaker 1: book so at Fandals actually nineteen and a half. So
Speaker 1: that's even better if you can bet on fandle even
Speaker 1: a little bit more of an edge anything else.
Speaker 3: Yeah, let me add one more, Dan, and I know
Speaker 3: that our the betting sheet loves this one. Is the
Speaker 3: Derek Carr over to sixty eight and a half. It
Speaker 3: just seems kind of low. I mean, he's six and
Speaker 3: four against that number this year. Maybe it's because he's
Speaker 3: zero and two on his last two. The weird thing is, wait,
Speaker 3: what did I say? I said two hundred and sixty
Speaker 3: eight and a half. That's what it was at yesterday
Speaker 3: on DraftKings. Now it's down to two sixty four and
Speaker 3: a half. It's four it's two sixty three and a
Speaker 3: half on Fantoms.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, So it's moved down five yards since.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that works.
Speaker 2: And again Pat, that's not unusual.
Speaker 1: I mean you and I bet props a lot, and
Speaker 1: I take a pretty close look at them now when
Speaker 1: I get into it, because I have to recommend them always.
Speaker 1: On Sunday, I will recommend things on Saturday night. Pat,
Speaker 1: on Saturday night, I will make my list for our
Speaker 1: Sunday morning livestream, and it will move four yards for
Speaker 1: running backs six yards for passing yards like they move
Speaker 1: pretty significant, right.
Speaker 2: It doesn't take a lot to move these lines.
Speaker 1: Not at all, not at all, So you are right.
Speaker 1: So yeah, our propat chi Chie, that is the one
Speaker 1: that they like a lot. They haven't projected for two
Speaker 1: ninety four, so you agree with this. Let me pull
Speaker 1: up my so because I you know, Pat, I don't know, man,
Speaker 1: the Raiders often scares me man with the passing offense
Speaker 1: a little bit.
Speaker 4: Let me look at my projection. But tell me why
Speaker 4: you like that one.
Speaker 3: Uh well, it's good just because it's a low bar
Speaker 3: for a guy who I mean, Car is what top.
Speaker 3: I know he's top five and in passing yards per
Speaker 3: game at one point I think he was number two.
Speaker 3: I don't know if he's still there after two kind
Speaker 3: of slowish games, but yeah, I mean we know they're
Speaker 3: not gonna they like they don't have the running game
Speaker 3: to just lean on the run the entire game against
Speaker 3: the Cowboys, like.
Speaker 2: They've they've got to take to the air here.
Speaker 3: And you know, even though they don't have that vertical
Speaker 3: threat with Rugs no longer in the lineup, like, I.
Speaker 2: Still think Car can get there. Yes, yeah, And plus.
Speaker 3: I mean we talked about the Raiders being you know,
Speaker 3: deserved underdogs in this game. Yeah, so we are guessing
Speaker 3: that it's probably going to be a past friendly game script.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, and I do think that the fact
Speaker 1: that they're you know, I want to take a a
Speaker 1: rushing prop over for the Cowboys for one of them,
Speaker 1: but it's Zeke's so banged. I mean, he's Roger sixty
Speaker 1: and a half. Pat, I feel like that's an over.
Speaker 1: But I don't feel good about his health, Like I
Speaker 1: feel like he's always constantly leaving. He obviously had a
Speaker 1: little bit of an ankle thing last time, and he
Speaker 1: came in, so I could see Tony Poller going over
Speaker 1: his thirty nine and a half.
Speaker 4: But I just I don't feel that comfortable with it overall.
Speaker 3: Do you No, Yeah, it's as you mentioned, It does
Speaker 3: feel like we should be taking some sort of over
Speaker 3: on the Cowboys rushing props and it just but like
Speaker 3: I can't do it on Zeke knowing who's banged up.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, all right, any other one from this game?
Speaker 1: You want to move to the final one?
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go to the final one.
Speaker 4: Bills at the Saints. What do you like here? Pat?
Speaker 3: I like that Taysom Hill anytime touchdown then at plus
Speaker 3: five hundred, and especially with the uncertain injury status of
Speaker 3: Camara and Ingram, like just one way for them to
Speaker 3: punch the ball in perhaps, And really that's about it.
Speaker 3: I'm not loving the prompts in this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a great one. Actually, I really really like
Speaker 1: that one. I'm the one that I'm eyeing a little bit.
Speaker 1: And again our prep at Chichi does not list this
Speaker 1: is great. It basically has it right on projections. I
Speaker 1: lean over on Josh Allen rushing yards and part of
Speaker 1: it is it's thirty two and a half for him.
Speaker 1: And part of the reason why I do pat is
Speaker 1: because you know, you hear all this coming out of
Speaker 1: Buffalo and they're like, you know what, we've got to
Speaker 1: take care of it, Like we don't. We don't have
Speaker 1: to go crazy, we won't have to take deep shots
Speaker 1: like we have to avoid turnovers, especially against the Saints
Speaker 1: that don't have an explosive offense.
Speaker 4: To me, that strikes me is when Alan.
Speaker 1: Feels like he is in or he feels like it's
Speaker 1: a tight window, He's not going to take the chance
Speaker 1: in this game.
Speaker 4: He's just going to take off and run. We just
Speaker 4: saw Jalen.
Speaker 1: Hurts absolutely destroy the Saints right from a rushing perspective.
Speaker 1: So again, it's not one that our Propat chi Chie
Speaker 1: necessarily likes.
Speaker 4: It doesn't have an edge.
Speaker 1: It has over by point zero six rushing yards, which
Speaker 1: is fine, but I lean that way. Pat Taysom Mill
Speaker 1: scoring touch actually is a great call, and it's now
Speaker 1: my favorite prop of that game. But I do lean
Speaker 1: if anything, Josh Allen over rushing yards thirty two and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that makes sense to me, especially after the Jalen
Speaker 3: Hurts blow up last week.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think just everything sort of fits for it.
Speaker 1: All right, that's it for our Best Bets podcast. Pat,
Speaker 1: your dog was great, Thank him for uh for keeping that.
Speaker 1: Thank you for your job. THEO, good job, THEO. I
Speaker 1: know it's a very busy time for you. Thank you
Speaker 1: everybody to join us here today live again on our
Speaker 1: YouTube channel. Don't forget to subscribe to YouTube dot com
Speaker 1: slash Betting Pros, make sure you don't miss our content,
Speaker 1: and then go by the way to Betting Pros dot
Speaker 1: com slash helmet where you can win a sign Saque
Speaker 1: Barkley helmet just for subscribing just to recap our best
Speaker 1: bets in addition to the props pat you like the
Speaker 1: Lions getting three from the Bears, the Raiders and the
Speaker 1: Cowboys under fifty and a half, and the Rams getting
Speaker 1: one from the Packers. I like the Steelers getting four
Speaker 1: and a half from the Bengals in Cincinnati, the Texans
Speaker 1: laying two and a half to the Jets and the Titans,
Speaker 1: and the Patriots under forty four.
Speaker 4: I hope everybody has a wonderful Thanksgiving.
Speaker 1: Enjoy the food, enjoy the family, enjoy the football, Enjoy
Speaker 1: your Sunday as well. We'll be back as always next week,
Speaker 1: taking an early look at the Week thirteen NFL lines.
Speaker 1: As we just fly through the season, I will talk
Speaker 1: to you though,