WEBVTT - Week 12 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 133)

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<v Speaker 1>Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought

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<v Speaker 1>to you by bet MGM. I am your host, Dan Harris.

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<v Speaker 1>That's Pat fitz Morris. You can find me on Twitter

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<v Speaker 1>at Dan Harris Ada. You can find Pat on Twitter

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<v Speaker 1>at fits underscore FF. It is time to talk about

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<v Speaker 1>our best bets for Week twelve of the NFL season.

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<v Speaker 1>We are live streaming this right now on our YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.

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<v Speaker 2>Pat.

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<v Speaker 1>It's almost Thanksgiving? Are you Are you ready for the

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<v Speaker 1>big holiday or what?

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<v Speaker 2>I am?

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<v Speaker 1>Dan?

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<v Speaker 3>I'm always ready for Thanksgiving? And what an underrated week

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<v Speaker 3>of sports Thanksgiving Week is. I mean, you start the

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<v Speaker 3>early part of the week with some really interesting, fun

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<v Speaker 3>college basketball tournaments, you get the NFL Triple on Thursday,

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<v Speaker 3>you get great college football rivalries on Saturday, and then

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<v Speaker 3>more NFL on Sunday. So, like I think, it's just

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<v Speaker 3>a dream sports week. Loving every minute of it right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, well we need you know, the NFL Thursday on

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<v Speaker 1>this one isn't exactly lighting you know, the room on

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<v Speaker 1>fire with this. The games are not that especially the

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<v Speaker 1>first one. I mean, you know, the Bears and the lines.

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<v Speaker 4>Just not what we want.

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<v Speaker 1>But I understand you may be making some picks here

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<v Speaker 1>on some of our Thursday games, which is great, and we're.

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<v Speaker 4>Going to do some player props.

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<v Speaker 1>Part of the reason we can't do player props obviously

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<v Speaker 1>on this show is because for the most part, they're

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<v Speaker 1>not out at the time we do it. But right

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<v Speaker 1>now we are going to be able to do it

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<v Speaker 1>because there are enough props out now because it's Thanksgiving.

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<v Speaker 1>That's why we are live streaming this again on our

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube channel. So if you're in the I see some

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<v Speaker 1>people chatting already, people waiting for the garage door to open,

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<v Speaker 1>which is great. It will be opening, I absolutely promise you.

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<v Speaker 1>My wife has an appointment in about twenty minutes, so

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<v Speaker 1>it will get nobody worry about that. But in the meantime,

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<v Speaker 1>let's go through both our latest offer from our sponsor

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<v Speaker 1>the usual show giving our three best bets for the

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<v Speaker 1>weekend or in this case, some on Thanksgiving if either

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<v Speaker 1>one of us has any picks for that, and then

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<v Speaker 1>we'll do some player props here for Thanksgiving. And again

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<v Speaker 1>Pat and I, as in addition to being betting guys,

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<v Speaker 1>are also both fantasy guys and not to our own horns,

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<v Speaker 1>but we're fairly accurate with our fantasy rankings over the

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<v Speaker 1>last several years, and part of that leads into player props.

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<v Speaker 1>So we'll get there and again, if you have questions

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<v Speaker 1>and you're here joining us, and I see that somebody

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<v Speaker 1>asking about cole Comet receiving yards prop, we'll talk about

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<v Speaker 1>those as we get there and over under our garage

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<v Speaker 1>door taking over on one and a half. That's a

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<v Speaker 1>good bet. That's your best prop bet obviously of the weekend.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, let me get into our latest offer here

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<v Speaker 1>available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona,

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<v Speaker 1>and Wyoming. All right, let's quickly recap last week our

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<v Speaker 1>guest Mike Randall, Pat and I we were just talking

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<v Speaker 1>about how much we love Mike and how great he

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<v Speaker 1>is at the college basketball stuff. But he did go

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<v Speaker 1>just one and two last week. He did hit on

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<v Speaker 1>the Vikings getting two and a half in that matchup

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<v Speaker 1>against the Packers, but he missed on the Seahawks getting three.

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<v Speaker 1>The Seahawks continue to be.

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<v Speaker 4>Just our kryptonite on this podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>And he also had Carolina laying three and a half

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<v Speaker 1>and they of course lost outright, I went to and one.

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<v Speaker 1>I hit on the Chiefs laying two and a half

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<v Speaker 1>to the Cowboys, was our betting pros pick out the

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<v Speaker 1>day for Sunday, and the Texans getting ten from the Titans.

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<v Speaker 1>I did miss on the Raiders getting one from the Bengals.

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<v Speaker 1>That puts me in eighteen and fifteen on the week

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<v Speaker 1>on the.

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<v Speaker 4>Year, pardon me not on the week that would be

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<v Speaker 4>a big week for me. All right.

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<v Speaker 1>I remember we've consentives lines o our Bettingpros dot com.

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<v Speaker 1>I will mention the different books that are available. They

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<v Speaker 1>are moving these lines, that including the Thanksgiving lines when

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<v Speaker 1>I looked at them just yesterday before preparing for this show.

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<v Speaker 2>Again.

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<v Speaker 1>You can make picks and their Betting Pros app which

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<v Speaker 1>you should download. You can make your own picks against

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<v Speaker 1>the spread. You can see where you stand on a

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<v Speaker 1>leader board and all of that. Bat you were the

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<v Speaker 1>guests on the show, I give you the honor of

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<v Speaker 1>making your first pick here. What's your you know, what

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<v Speaker 1>do you want to say your best bet at the weekend?

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<v Speaker 1>However you want and put it out there. But what's

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<v Speaker 1>your number one pick?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 3>So let's start with that aforementioned Bear's Lions game. Dan,

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, yeah, what a great matchup you've got to

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<v Speaker 3>bet at pretty much because you're not watching it for

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<v Speaker 3>the outstanding football.

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<v Speaker 4>True.

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<v Speaker 3>Indeed, so I really like the Lions getting three points

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<v Speaker 3>at home here for one, I just have a policy.

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<v Speaker 3>I would never bet against the Lions on a Thanksgiving

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<v Speaker 3>Day game at home. I'm either taking the points they're

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<v Speaker 3>inevitably getting or I'm just laying off, but this time

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<v Speaker 3>I think I want those points. And it kind of

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<v Speaker 3>comes down to well, number one, I don't think the

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<v Speaker 3>Lions are that much worse than the Bears this year.

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<v Speaker 2>And number two, I mean, I think it's the coaching situations.

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<v Speaker 3>You've got the volatility of the Matt and Age situation

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<v Speaker 3>in Chicago with him being a lame duck, a lame

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<v Speaker 3>turkey if you will, on Thanksgiving, and you know, in Detroit,

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<v Speaker 3>I think they have some a spree decorps with you know,

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<v Speaker 3>with Campbell, Like everyone loves Dan Campbell, so like, I

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<v Speaker 3>think they're going to be fired up to try to

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<v Speaker 3>go out and get their first win of the season

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<v Speaker 3>on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. And you know, I like

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<v Speaker 3>getting a few points here. Yeah, So I'm taking Detroit

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<v Speaker 3>in the three. That's one of my bets for this week.

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<v Speaker 1>Does are you assuming with the bet or does it

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<v Speaker 1>matter to you who starts a quarterback here for the Lions,

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<v Speaker 1>Because of course, now there's there's some optimism, at least

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<v Speaker 1>expressed by Dan Campbell, that Jarred Goff is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be able to go in this game and it's not

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<v Speaker 1>going to be Timboil doesn't.

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<v Speaker 4>Matter to you at all.

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<v Speaker 2>No, and on either side it wouldn't.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean to me, like Dalton versus Fields, Boil versus

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<v Speaker 3>GoF neither one moves the needle one.

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<v Speaker 2>Way or the other in this one, I don't think.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, well, it does sound like it is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be Dalton. I think Matt Naxan came out. Of course,

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<v Speaker 1>you referenced it. There are reports that nag is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be fired immediately after the game, which he denies

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<v Speaker 1>that he was not.

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<v Speaker 4>Informed that he was going to be fired. But we'll see.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, this is a tough one for me. Pat there.

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<v Speaker 1>It was three and a half for a while and

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<v Speaker 1>when it opened at three and a half. I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know if the movement to three is because money coming

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<v Speaker 1>in here on the Lions or because of the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that Jared Goff could start and people think that that's

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<v Speaker 1>better for the Lions. Either way, I don't really have

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<v Speaker 1>a great feel for it. Necessarily, I'll be involved in

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<v Speaker 1>this game, probably from a props per perspective, which again

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<v Speaker 1>we'll talk about it a little bit later here. But

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<v Speaker 1>I like the boldness of making one of your best

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<v Speaker 1>bets not only on the Lions, but also on Thanksgiving,

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<v Speaker 1>So we're gonna know how your week's going right off

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<v Speaker 1>the bat. Pat like, no fear whatsoever. You don't want

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<v Speaker 1>to punt it, tell punt till Monday night. That's my philosophy,

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<v Speaker 1>Like let's wait until the week's alve was suffer.

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<v Speaker 4>But yeah, I'm not.

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<v Speaker 1>I'll just being honest. I don't have a good feel

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<v Speaker 1>for it, Like I'm not betting it one way or another.

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<v Speaker 1>I'd love to see the Lions win. I'd love to

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<v Speaker 1>see them cover, but you know, I can't back them, man,

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<v Speaker 1>I can't back them even with the do you last question?

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<v Speaker 4>I guess do you think?

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<v Speaker 1>Because we have seen coaching sort of stuff, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>as much as he's lost the locker room and everything

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<v Speaker 1>like that, but we've seen coaching stuff go the other

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<v Speaker 1>way a little bit, like people in turmoil and then

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<v Speaker 1>they kind of rally and then they play better.

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<v Speaker 4>You don't really are.

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<v Speaker 1>You putting anything into the coaching situation basically in this

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<v Speaker 1>game for the PA.

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<v Speaker 3>So yeah, I mean that's that's where a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>it comes from. I know the Raiders sort of crossed

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<v Speaker 3>us up with that, Like the more you know, the

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<v Speaker 3>more turmoil the Raiders have, the better they seem to

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<v Speaker 3>play is here, at least as far as the coaching goes.

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<v Speaker 3>So no, I mean, I do think it kind of

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<v Speaker 3>matters that, you know. For one, like I think the

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<v Speaker 3>Campbell's the players coach, the players like him. For another,

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think he's an idiot. He's not a you know,

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<v Speaker 3>a Wayne Fonce. He's actually a decent head coach.

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<v Speaker 2>I know, I used to love Wayne, like, and nothing

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<v Speaker 2>entertained my stepdad as much as like watching Wayne Fonce

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<v Speaker 2>coach on Thanksgiving Day and make jokes about him.

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<v Speaker 3>So I do miss Wayne. But yeah, just like it

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<v Speaker 3>seems like when you're getting these reports about the divided

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<v Speaker 3>locker room for the Bears and how how some of

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<v Speaker 3>these players are just like actively stabbing him in the

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<v Speaker 3>back and telling reporters that they.

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<v Speaker 2>There's a sizeable player population.

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<v Speaker 3>In that locker room that wants him gone, like that's

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<v Speaker 3>not a good thing, and like are they going to

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<v Speaker 3>go out and play for that guy on a holiday?

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<v Speaker 3>It just I would not be surprised if the Bears

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<v Speaker 3>came out pretty flat for this one.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, And I do think that it's a little different

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<v Speaker 1>than Gruden, which you know, obviously Gruden situation didn't have

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<v Speaker 1>anything to do with the locker room at that time

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<v Speaker 1>and him being gone and that first came back that

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<v Speaker 1>might have been a relief right for them. In this one,

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<v Speaker 1>you have the reports that the players are actively basically

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<v Speaker 1>being like, you have lost the locker room. I'm done,

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<v Speaker 1>and so that is really tough there to go. But

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<v Speaker 1>it is a stay.

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<v Speaker 4>Away from me.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll get some props a couple of them that I

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<v Speaker 1>might like in that one, but at stay Away, you're

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<v Speaker 1>a brave man. I love going in on the Lions

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<v Speaker 1>for one of your best bets. I am going to

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<v Speaker 1>take it in. I won't say an equally disappointing team,

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<v Speaker 1>but a team that it's very difficult to get a

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<v Speaker 1>read on, but I like the spot for them.

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<v Speaker 4>If you've listened to.

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<v Speaker 1>This podcast, it is the Steelers on the road in

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<v Speaker 1>Cincinnati getting four and a half here against the Bengals.

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<v Speaker 1>Now here's what I'm going to say. I would bet

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<v Speaker 1>this now if you were listening to this, because I

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<v Speaker 1>do think from everything I'm reading that the big three

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<v Speaker 1>defensive players that the Steelers were missing last week. TJ Watt,

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<v Speaker 1>Mika Fitzpatrick and Joe Hayden.

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<v Speaker 4>It sounds like they're all going to come back here.

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<v Speaker 1>And if they do, if they get through practice and

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<v Speaker 1>they'll come back, this line's going to drop a little bit.

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<v Speaker 1>So this is for me a prime teaser piece. Pat.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to bet it last night for the Steelers.

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<v Speaker 1>I mentioned this on the Monday Show. I want to

0:10:13.400 --> 0:10:15.959
<v Speaker 1>bet it last night and tease it up. But DraftKings

0:10:16.120 --> 0:10:18.880
<v Speaker 1>was the lone book sitting out there at four. Every

0:10:18.920 --> 0:10:20.839
<v Speaker 1>other book was four and a half. Draft Kings sat

0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:22.480
<v Speaker 1>out there at four. When I woke up this morning,

0:10:22.800 --> 0:10:24.280
<v Speaker 1>it was at four and a half. So I did it.

0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:26.160
<v Speaker 1>I teased it up and I messaged you this morning.

0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:28.640
<v Speaker 1>I said, bad, I need the second teezer piece because

0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:30.360
<v Speaker 1>I can't necessarily get there. And we did come up

0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:31.439
<v Speaker 1>with a few. But bet it at four and a

0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:33.439
<v Speaker 1>half if you like the Steelers like I do. I

0:10:33.480 --> 0:10:35.880
<v Speaker 1>said last week that I was fading the Bengals Pat

0:10:36.360 --> 0:10:38.840
<v Speaker 1>against the Raiders. That didn't work out very well for me,

0:10:38.880 --> 0:10:40.600
<v Speaker 1>as I said, I did lose that bet. But I'm

0:10:40.600 --> 0:10:42.800
<v Speaker 1>putting that a little bit more on the Raiders than

0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:46.200
<v Speaker 1>I am on the Bengals. I mean, I can't buy

0:10:46.200 --> 0:10:49.200
<v Speaker 1>the Bengals, Pat I look at just total DVOA and

0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:51.439
<v Speaker 1>I know Matt Parl always teases me because I love

0:10:51.520 --> 0:10:53.640
<v Speaker 1>DVA and I look at it closely and stuff like that.

0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:55.679
<v Speaker 1>But just it's a good measure of how good a

0:10:55.720 --> 0:10:59.320
<v Speaker 1>team actually is in my opinion. And Cincinnati's twenty first

0:10:59.320 --> 0:11:02.880
<v Speaker 1>Pittsburgh twenty, it's two pretty evenly matched teams. And you

0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:05.320
<v Speaker 1>look at the weighted DVOA, Pat, that's more recent game

0:11:05.400 --> 0:11:07.880
<v Speaker 1>sort of in there, Pittsburgh twenty. It's since he twenty fourth.

0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:11.520
<v Speaker 1>Again with Pittsburgh now getting healthy on defense, I think

0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:14.520
<v Speaker 1>it's a different game. I think a divisional game, it's

0:11:14.600 --> 0:11:17.840
<v Speaker 1>generally pretty close. And again I'm a broken record here, Pat,

0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:20.360
<v Speaker 1>but the history shows us there are spots to back

0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:23.520
<v Speaker 1>Mike Tomlin. There are spots to fade Mike Tomlin. This

0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:26.600
<v Speaker 1>is a back Mike Tomlin spot for two reasons. Garage

0:11:26.720 --> 0:11:27.319
<v Speaker 1>or number one.

0:11:27.360 --> 0:11:27.840
<v Speaker 4>There we are.

0:11:27.880 --> 0:11:29.599
<v Speaker 1>It always comes in. I promise you, I knew she

0:11:29.640 --> 0:11:32.880
<v Speaker 1>had an employment. Everybody, it's it's really miraculous. Anytime my

0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:35.480
<v Speaker 1>podcasts are livestream, she has a tendency to figure out

0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:39.480
<v Speaker 1>what it is. Anyway, just go here with the Mike

0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:42.640
<v Speaker 1>Tomlin led Steelers. Okay, knocks you out of your survivor pool.

0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:44.760
<v Speaker 1>Every single time they could be a double digit favorite,

0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:46.560
<v Speaker 1>they are going to lose that game. But he is

0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:49.280
<v Speaker 1>the best raw rock coach in the game. And even

0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:52.480
<v Speaker 1>this year they're four and one as underdogs, They're three

0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:55.520
<v Speaker 1>and one as underdogs by more than three points. And

0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:57.599
<v Speaker 1>remember Pat, and I don't think we can discount this.

0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:01.360
<v Speaker 1>Cincinnati went up to Pittsburgh early on in the year

0:12:01.520 --> 0:12:03.400
<v Speaker 1>and spanked them a little bit, right, I mean, they

0:12:03.400 --> 0:12:06.400
<v Speaker 1>won twenty four to ten. They were embarrassed by that,

0:12:06.520 --> 0:12:09.520
<v Speaker 1>and since he did some chirpin' afterwards, and you know

0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:12.240
<v Speaker 1>that Mike Tom was going to remind his guys of

0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:13.680
<v Speaker 1>that Ben's playing a little better.

0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:14.200
<v Speaker 4>You know.

0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:17.080
<v Speaker 1>I was surprised actually how decent he looked in that

0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:20.280
<v Speaker 1>game coming off COVID. But he's playing a little better.

0:12:20.480 --> 0:12:22.520
<v Speaker 1>The defense really is what's going to make the difference.

0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:24.880
<v Speaker 1>It's a fate of the Bengals. It's a divisional game.

0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:27.760
<v Speaker 1>If anything, I think Cincinnati wins this by three points.

0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:30.040
<v Speaker 1>But I wouldn't mind taking the money line here on

0:12:30.280 --> 0:12:33.960
<v Speaker 1>these Steelers. So that's where I am. I'm going with

0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:36.520
<v Speaker 1>them getting four and a half points here on the road.

0:12:36.559 --> 0:12:37.359
<v Speaker 1>In Cincinnati.

0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:40.600
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you're selling me, Dan. I mean you and Randalls

0:12:40.840 --> 0:12:41.920
<v Speaker 2>told me last week.

0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:45.760
<v Speaker 3>About the setups for Pittsburgh, like take them as a dog,

0:12:46.280 --> 0:12:49.880
<v Speaker 3>fade them as a heavy favorite. And you know, I

0:12:49.920 --> 0:12:52.760
<v Speaker 3>took your advice last week against the Chargers, and luckily

0:12:52.760 --> 0:12:55.959
<v Speaker 3>the back door was open in that game. Yeah, I mean, hell,

0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:58.839
<v Speaker 3>they almost want it outright at the end. So I'm

0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:00.360
<v Speaker 3>kind of on board with you. Ni make a really

0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:02.800
<v Speaker 3>good point about the Steelers defense getting healthier.

0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:05.480
<v Speaker 2>TJ. Watt playing obviously would make a difference.

0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:06.840
<v Speaker 1>Yes, different for sure.

0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:10.400
<v Speaker 3>Yes, And like we have seen, you know, Burrow kind

0:13:10.440 --> 0:13:12.959
<v Speaker 3>of struggle against pressure. I would say at times so far,

0:13:13.520 --> 0:13:16.320
<v Speaker 3>if he is a clean pocket, he's fantastic, but he's

0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:19.640
<v Speaker 3>under a heavy pass rush, like you can disrupt him

0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:23.040
<v Speaker 3>and force him into some mistake. So yeah, and TJ. Watts,

0:13:23.400 --> 0:13:24.920
<v Speaker 3>You're not going to have a clean pocket all day

0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:26.400
<v Speaker 3>if that dude's playing so.

0:13:26.520 --> 0:13:28.800
<v Speaker 1>Right, And again, there are question marks at it because

0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:32.800
<v Speaker 1>you can you know secret the books no more than

0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:35.480
<v Speaker 1>I do. Of course, they get advanced sort of notice,

0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:37.560
<v Speaker 1>so it is up in the air to be careful.

0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:40.040
<v Speaker 1>But everything I'm reading, and again, Pat, I feel like

0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:41.640
<v Speaker 1>you and I probably at this point because we've been

0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:44.680
<v Speaker 1>doing this for a while, Like we have minor people

0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:46.840
<v Speaker 1>that we know and trust who sort of, you know,

0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:48.920
<v Speaker 1>can can lean us in the right direction as to

0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:51.560
<v Speaker 1>what they're thinking necesarily about injuries and things like that.

0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.959
<v Speaker 1>And everything I've seen from people who I trust suggest

0:13:55.000 --> 0:13:56.680
<v Speaker 1>that they think they're going to get.

0:13:56.559 --> 0:13:58.079
<v Speaker 4>All three of these guys back right now.

0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:00.040
<v Speaker 1>And it's just to me, it's a completely different in

0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:01.880
<v Speaker 1>the game, by the way, both teams have to win.

0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:06.200
<v Speaker 1>But look, whatever is is, you know, the defense is

0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:07.880
<v Speaker 1>fine for Cincy. I think it played a little bit

0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:10.240
<v Speaker 1>over its head early in the year. The offense, man,

0:14:10.320 --> 0:14:13.400
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, like it just it doesn't look cohesive

0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:15.720
<v Speaker 1>right now, like whatever they're doing on offense. And again

0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:17.640
<v Speaker 1>they beat the Raiders pretty handily in this one. But

0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:19.440
<v Speaker 1>again that's more of a fade at the Raiders. But

0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:21.960
<v Speaker 1>I do think I think the Steelers win this game

0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:23.400
<v Speaker 1>out right, really, I honestly do.

0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:23.480
<v Speaker 2>So.

0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:25.400
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna sprinkle on the money line as you should

0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:28.840
<v Speaker 1>with all sort of you know, short dogs here, but again,

0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:31.200
<v Speaker 1>this is a spot, man, I'm telling you, this is

0:14:31.240 --> 0:14:33.600
<v Speaker 1>a bet that I really like this week bat and

0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:35.680
<v Speaker 1>especially at four and a half, which is why I'm

0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:38.000
<v Speaker 1>doing it. It's in every teaser piece because if they

0:14:38.040 --> 0:14:39.760
<v Speaker 1>lose by more than ten and a half, I have

0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:42.640
<v Speaker 1>to rethink my entire outlook here. I'm the Steelers on

0:14:42.720 --> 0:14:44.920
<v Speaker 1>the Bengals, so I can't see them losing by that much.

0:14:44.960 --> 0:14:45.880
<v Speaker 4>So tease them up.

0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:48.800
<v Speaker 1>Find another piece, maybe one of our Thanksgiving games, which

0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:50.760
<v Speaker 1>we'll talk about. I think in a second, Pat, you're

0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:52.640
<v Speaker 1>going back to Thanksgiving for pick number two?

0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:53.080
<v Speaker 4>Is that right?

0:14:53.400 --> 0:14:56.240
<v Speaker 2>I am Dan and first as an aside, so my

0:14:56.400 --> 0:15:00.000
<v Speaker 2>dog is very contentedly gnawing on a bone next year

0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:03.080
<v Speaker 2>because my wife is away and she can't be watching him.

0:15:03.080 --> 0:15:04.480
<v Speaker 2>I've got to have him here with me. So if

0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:05.960
<v Speaker 2>people hear that, that's what it is.

0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:09.440
<v Speaker 3>But I don't know if my dog loves this basted

0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:11.960
<v Speaker 3>bone as much as I love the under in the

0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:13.359
<v Speaker 3>Dallas Raiders.

0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:17.880
<v Speaker 2>Game, which is at a last time I checked, I

0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:20.200
<v Speaker 2>think it was I got it fifty one.

0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:23.280
<v Speaker 1>So it's fifty one at some books, but our consensus

0:15:23.280 --> 0:15:24.800
<v Speaker 1>line again at betting pros, that's what we do. We

0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:26.840
<v Speaker 1>have I don't know, twelve fifteen books here that we

0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:29.440
<v Speaker 1>look at everything. It's technically fifty and a half, Pat,

0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:32.200
<v Speaker 1>So if that changes anything, let me know.

0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:35.040
<v Speaker 3>But it won't change anything, Dan, And I think it

0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:37.480
<v Speaker 3>was actually at fifty one and a half on Draft

0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:39.840
<v Speaker 3>Kings yesterday, if I'm not mistaken. So maybe there are

0:15:39.880 --> 0:15:42.360
<v Speaker 3>some other people who are thinking the same.

0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:44.600
<v Speaker 4>It's fifty and a half at DraftKings.

0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:47.760
<v Speaker 1>I know, Pat, because spoiler alert, it's part of a teaser,

0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:48.320
<v Speaker 1>but go ahead.

0:15:48.400 --> 0:15:51.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, okay, So I mean looking at Dallas in their

0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:55.440
<v Speaker 3>last four games, they have been twenty points or less

0:15:55.880 --> 0:15:58.160
<v Speaker 3>in three of the four, the only exception being there

0:15:58.200 --> 0:16:01.920
<v Speaker 3>forty three to three pasting of the Falcons. The Raiders

0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:05.920
<v Speaker 3>have scored sixteen points or fewer in three straights. Like

0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:08.320
<v Speaker 3>the Raiders, as you mentioned a second ago, have just

0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:12.160
<v Speaker 3>been on kind of a downward trajectory. You know, maybe

0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:15.840
<v Speaker 3>they are starting to feel the effects of John Gruden

0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:19.240
<v Speaker 3>not being there calling plays. The offense just hasn't seemed

0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:22.000
<v Speaker 3>quite as functional. And Dallas, I mean, we know they're

0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:24.480
<v Speaker 3>going to be missing their top two wide receivers, which

0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:27.040
<v Speaker 3>is well, I guess technically I don't know about that,

0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:30.320
<v Speaker 3>right because they don't Yeah, I mean, so we don't

0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:31.480
<v Speaker 3>know about CD Lamb yet.

0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:33.040
<v Speaker 2>Like it's it's very rare.

0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:36.320
<v Speaker 3>As you know, some of my injury people have pointed out,

0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:40.400
<v Speaker 3>for a concussed player to get cleared, someone who was

0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:42.600
<v Speaker 3>hurt on a Sunday to get cleared for a Thursdays,

0:16:42.680 --> 0:16:45.720
<v Speaker 3>it's pretty rare. So I think Lamb is going to

0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:48.880
<v Speaker 3>be out for this one. Yeah, I think it's going

0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:52.640
<v Speaker 3>to be not a shootout, and you know, maybe there

0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:54.040
<v Speaker 3>are going to be some points put up.

0:16:54.560 --> 0:16:56.480
<v Speaker 2>Dak Prescott is certainly still capable.

0:16:56.560 --> 0:16:58.360
<v Speaker 3>I think that the Cowboys will be able to do

0:16:58.440 --> 0:17:01.240
<v Speaker 3>business on the ground against the Raiders, as most teams are.

0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:03.400
<v Speaker 3>But I think the Raiders might struggle to move the

0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:08.320
<v Speaker 3>ball in this one, and man like, any total fifty

0:17:08.440 --> 0:17:10.760
<v Speaker 3>or higher just seems like a stretch in this game.

0:17:10.800 --> 0:17:13.000
<v Speaker 3>So I'm hitting the under pretty hard here.

0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:18.480
<v Speaker 1>We joked about it pat last week. It was Chris Raybond, right,

0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:20.919
<v Speaker 1>friend of the show of both the betting pros on

0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:23.720
<v Speaker 1>Fantasy Pros side, who had tweeted out that I don't

0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:27.159
<v Speaker 1>understand why everybody htes unders so much. Unders Are you

0:17:27.160 --> 0:17:29.760
<v Speaker 1>know you're winning right from the time the game starts

0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:30.320
<v Speaker 1>like that?

0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:32.160
<v Speaker 4>That's something that's true. I agree.

0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:34.840
<v Speaker 1>I mean people like to root for something, not against something.

0:17:35.200 --> 0:17:37.480
<v Speaker 1>But had you not taken this, and had I not

0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:40.400
<v Speaker 1>been such a coward, I probably would also have sort

0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:42.359
<v Speaker 1>of taken this as one of my best bets. Yeah,

0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:45.359
<v Speaker 1>this is a game that screams under to me, like

0:17:45.840 --> 0:17:46.960
<v Speaker 1>absolutely screams that.

0:17:47.280 --> 0:17:47.760
<v Speaker 4>I agree.

0:17:47.800 --> 0:17:49.879
<v Speaker 1>I'm not expecting Ceedee Lamb to play.

0:17:49.920 --> 0:17:50.080
<v Speaker 4>Now.

0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:52.679
<v Speaker 1>There's been the positive sort of discussions here about the

0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:54.679
<v Speaker 1>fact that like, oh, he's in meetings, he's trending in

0:17:54.680 --> 0:17:58.560
<v Speaker 1>the right direction. Mike McCarthy is optimistic. He can't clear

0:17:58.600 --> 0:18:01.439
<v Speaker 1>it that quickly, Like I'll be absolutely shocked here, and

0:18:01.480 --> 0:18:04.320
<v Speaker 1>that's a huge deal for this offense. Like you know,

0:18:04.359 --> 0:18:07.320
<v Speaker 1>you're down Amari Cooper, You're down Ceedee Lamb, Michael Gallup

0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:10.719
<v Speaker 1>and Cedric Wilson, right, I mean I know Dalton Schultz

0:18:10.760 --> 0:18:12.840
<v Speaker 1>and everything like that. But yeah, that's gonna be tough.

0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:15.920
<v Speaker 1>You assume they're gonna rely on the ground game here

0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:19.359
<v Speaker 1>a lot, because they should win this game pretty handily.

0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:22.040
<v Speaker 1>And again they're seven and a half point favorites, I think,

0:18:22.440 --> 0:18:25.919
<v Speaker 1>and the Raiders offense pat I don't know why. I mean,

0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:29.280
<v Speaker 1>you see it since I've lost Henry Ruggs, Like without

0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:33.840
<v Speaker 1>somebody stretching the field and opening it up underneath. They're

0:18:33.960 --> 0:18:37.520
<v Speaker 1>just unable to really, you know, move the ball cohesively

0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:40.520
<v Speaker 1>each and every week, so they're just struggling. Maybe that

0:18:40.640 --> 0:18:42.879
<v Speaker 1>changes right now, maybe they finally get you know, Deshaun

0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:46.360
<v Speaker 1>Jackson involved, but you know, absent that, it is tough

0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:48.320
<v Speaker 1>to see them putting up too many points. I love

0:18:48.359 --> 0:18:50.200
<v Speaker 1>it and you we talked about it. I said, Pat

0:18:50.200 --> 0:18:51.920
<v Speaker 1>giving the teaser piece, and you were like, I love

0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:54.800
<v Speaker 1>the under. So it is partially what I've done. And

0:18:54.800 --> 0:18:56.720
<v Speaker 1>actually it's not one of our best bets, Pat, But

0:18:57.280 --> 0:18:59.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering what you think of the spread because it's

0:18:59.080 --> 0:18:59.760
<v Speaker 1>seven and a half.

0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:00.800
<v Speaker 4>That too much for me.

0:19:01.080 --> 0:19:03.040
<v Speaker 1>But I did do a same game teaser here where

0:19:03.080 --> 0:19:05.720
<v Speaker 1>I tease the total up to fifty six and a

0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:07.800
<v Speaker 1>half and I'm taking the under, and then I tease

0:19:07.840 --> 0:19:09.919
<v Speaker 1>Dallas down. It's hard for me to see that with

0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:11.760
<v Speaker 1>or without cde Lamb. It's really hard for me to

0:19:11.800 --> 0:19:14.880
<v Speaker 1>see Dallas losing this game at home on Thanksgiving where

0:19:14.880 --> 0:19:17.160
<v Speaker 1>they're now being a little pressured here by the Eagles.

0:19:17.320 --> 0:19:18.640
<v Speaker 1>They've got to come out with it, so I tease

0:19:18.680 --> 0:19:19.800
<v Speaker 1>them down to one and a half. What do you

0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:22.120
<v Speaker 1>think about that? Out of curiosity about that, two teams teaser.

0:19:22.520 --> 0:19:25.480
<v Speaker 3>I like teasing it down. I agree, I have a

0:19:25.520 --> 0:19:29.320
<v Speaker 3>hard team hard time seeing Dallas dump one to a

0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:32.399
<v Speaker 3>reeling Raiders team at home on Thanksgiving. It just doesn't

0:19:32.400 --> 0:19:35.080
<v Speaker 3>seem like something that could happen. I think it's a

0:19:35.119 --> 0:19:39.080
<v Speaker 3>little too tall to bet it as is. You know,

0:19:39.119 --> 0:19:40.960
<v Speaker 3>it's probably just going to be a stay away from

0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:45.200
<v Speaker 3>me because I think the perception, and maybe this leads

0:19:45.280 --> 0:19:49.480
<v Speaker 3>to the high total, is that you know, normally we

0:19:49.480 --> 0:19:53.080
<v Speaker 3>can count of the Raiders defense being hot garbage juice,

0:19:53.119 --> 0:19:55.560
<v Speaker 3>and that really hasn't been the case this year. I mean,

0:19:55.600 --> 0:19:57.880
<v Speaker 3>they're not great against the run, They've been pretty good

0:19:57.880 --> 0:19:59.960
<v Speaker 3>against the past. I mean they've got Max Crosby play

0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:03.680
<v Speaker 3>like a young JJ Watts at left end, so.

0:20:05.240 --> 0:20:06.920
<v Speaker 2>And they can actually cover a little bit.

0:20:06.960 --> 0:20:09.800
<v Speaker 3>So that's part of why I think the total is

0:20:09.840 --> 0:20:11.639
<v Speaker 3>so high, and maybe part of why I think the

0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:13.440
<v Speaker 3>spread is so high.

0:20:13.480 --> 0:20:13.919
<v Speaker 2>I don't know.

0:20:14.240 --> 0:20:17.280
<v Speaker 3>It's just hard to get a read on the how

0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:19.720
<v Speaker 3>spunky the Raiders are going to be for this one,

0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:20.760
<v Speaker 3>because they.

0:20:20.600 --> 0:20:22.479
<v Speaker 2>Are going in the wrong direction. For sure.

0:20:23.200 --> 0:20:25.840
<v Speaker 3>I don't think they're a horrible team, but right now

0:20:25.880 --> 0:20:29.880
<v Speaker 3>it's just the trending. The trend for them is downward

0:20:29.960 --> 0:20:32.560
<v Speaker 3>and I don't know. I just can't get on either

0:20:32.600 --> 0:20:34.760
<v Speaker 3>side of this one at the line. But if you

0:20:34.840 --> 0:20:37.560
<v Speaker 3>tease it down, I like that. I like it tease

0:20:37.640 --> 0:20:39.760
<v Speaker 3>down to just Cowboys way basically.

0:20:39.960 --> 0:20:41.760
<v Speaker 1>And I think further to your point on the total,

0:20:41.800 --> 0:20:43.119
<v Speaker 1>by the way, is the fact that, like what did

0:20:43.160 --> 0:20:45.320
<v Speaker 1>we see last week? We saw Joe Mixon with you know,

0:20:45.400 --> 0:20:47.720
<v Speaker 1>thirty rush attempts, you know, and I think you've got

0:20:47.760 --> 0:20:50.120
<v Speaker 1>both backs here in spoiler alert, I may be going

0:20:50.160 --> 0:20:52.840
<v Speaker 1>there for one of my props. That's something that I

0:20:52.920 --> 0:20:54.199
<v Speaker 1>think you're going to see again. I think you're going

0:20:54.240 --> 0:20:56.040
<v Speaker 1>to see a lot of running the ball, running leads

0:20:56.040 --> 0:20:59.159
<v Speaker 1>the clock, leads two more under. So yeah, I like it.

0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:02.479
<v Speaker 1>I know nobody wants against scoring on Thanksgiving, but I

0:21:02.520 --> 0:21:04.840
<v Speaker 1>do like that one for sure, Pat. And the first

0:21:04.840 --> 0:21:07.000
<v Speaker 1>one on the Bears lines on a little luke warmont,

0:21:07.160 --> 0:21:09.320
<v Speaker 1>but that one I am I am higher on. So

0:21:09.760 --> 0:21:12.080
<v Speaker 1>for my second bet, Pat, I was actually going to

0:21:12.119 --> 0:21:15.000
<v Speaker 1>take the Broncos getting three from the Chargers, but it

0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:17.359
<v Speaker 1>moved to two at three, but it moved to two

0:21:17.400 --> 0:21:19.199
<v Speaker 1>and a half. I don't like it that much. I

0:21:19.240 --> 0:21:20.760
<v Speaker 1>do think this is a little bit of a letdown

0:21:20.760 --> 0:21:22.520
<v Speaker 1>spot here for the Chargers after that big win, and

0:21:22.560 --> 0:21:24.359
<v Speaker 1>you've got the Broncos at home off bye, but again

0:21:24.480 --> 0:21:26.440
<v Speaker 1>at two and a half, I don't like it as much.

0:21:26.440 --> 0:21:28.760
<v Speaker 1>So I'm going to a much much uglier game, and

0:21:28.800 --> 0:21:31.080
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to bet against my own team, the Jets,

0:21:31.240 --> 0:21:32.760
<v Speaker 1>and I'm going to take the Texans, who are now

0:21:32.840 --> 0:21:34.560
<v Speaker 1>under a field goal. Was a field goal earlier, but

0:21:34.600 --> 0:21:36.760
<v Speaker 1>it's not two and a half on the consensus lines

0:21:36.800 --> 0:21:39.600
<v Speaker 1>over at bettingpros dot com to the Jets in Houston,

0:21:40.200 --> 0:21:41.960
<v Speaker 1>pat one Zach Wilson was named the starter.

0:21:42.160 --> 0:21:44.560
<v Speaker 4>I like this a little bit.

0:21:44.600 --> 0:21:48.520
<v Speaker 1>And you put aside what you think of Wilson generally speaking, okay,

0:21:49.520 --> 0:21:52.560
<v Speaker 1>font online, is that we have seen quarterbacks come back

0:21:52.600 --> 0:21:55.480
<v Speaker 1>from a long layoff and just experience rust and I

0:21:55.520 --> 0:21:57.960
<v Speaker 1>think you're going to see that from Wilson here, Like,

0:21:58.359 --> 0:22:00.800
<v Speaker 1>regardless of how good he is this year or what

0:22:00.840 --> 0:22:02.600
<v Speaker 1>he's going to be doing, I think he's going to

0:22:02.640 --> 0:22:04.200
<v Speaker 1>be rusty in this game, and I think the Jets

0:22:04.200 --> 0:22:06.760
<v Speaker 1>are going to struggle to put up points. There's no

0:22:06.840 --> 0:22:09.040
<v Speaker 1>Michael Carter in this game. That does hurt. He was

0:22:09.040 --> 0:22:13.440
<v Speaker 1>obviously a huge point of sort of emphasis of this offense,

0:22:13.840 --> 0:22:16.399
<v Speaker 1>Jets are thirty first and overall dboa the Texans are

0:22:16.400 --> 0:22:19.440
<v Speaker 1>at home. I realized, like you could say, it's the matchups,

0:22:19.440 --> 0:22:22.159
<v Speaker 1>and last week the Titans heavy had injuries and the

0:22:22.200 --> 0:22:24.320
<v Speaker 1>weather was bad. But they now have six sacks and

0:22:24.400 --> 0:22:27.840
<v Speaker 1>ten turnovers in their last two games. The defense playing

0:22:27.840 --> 0:22:29.520
<v Speaker 1>a little bit better. I think, to Rod Taller is

0:22:29.560 --> 0:22:31.720
<v Speaker 1>lead's gonna play it safe. The Jets have covered the

0:22:31.760 --> 0:22:35.160
<v Speaker 1>spread twice this season, Pat, neither of times on the road.

0:22:35.520 --> 0:22:38.000
<v Speaker 1>Texans are actually three and one against spread at home.

0:22:38.600 --> 0:22:42.720
<v Speaker 1>The Jets defense, which was one, sort of like hanging

0:22:42.760 --> 0:22:45.359
<v Speaker 1>in there, I'll say generously, Pat, in the beginning of

0:22:45.440 --> 0:22:47.439
<v Speaker 1>the season. They are no longer hanging in there. They

0:22:47.440 --> 0:22:50.120
<v Speaker 1>are just kind of, you know whatever. So I think

0:22:50.119 --> 0:22:52.920
<v Speaker 1>the Texans win this game if it's underfield goal. God,

0:22:53.080 --> 0:22:55.159
<v Speaker 1>so gross, and I can't believe that this wound up

0:22:55.160 --> 0:22:57.560
<v Speaker 1>being one of the bets. I wanted to say. Pat

0:22:57.640 --> 0:23:00.320
<v Speaker 1>is leaving Ja's all right on the live stream, very

0:23:00.320 --> 0:23:01.280
<v Speaker 1>concerned about his dog.

0:23:01.600 --> 0:23:04.560
<v Speaker 4>Everyone you know, he's very, very worried about it.

0:23:04.680 --> 0:23:06.520
<v Speaker 1>Sorry, Pat, I'm teasing you about the fact that you're

0:23:06.560 --> 0:23:09.159
<v Speaker 1>so concerned about your dog and any noise that you

0:23:09.240 --> 0:23:11.320
<v Speaker 1>hear from your dog that you just left the show

0:23:11.359 --> 0:23:14.000
<v Speaker 1>in the middle of my rant. But that's fine, It's okay.

0:23:14.200 --> 0:23:15.880
<v Speaker 1>So I am taking the Texans to a half. God,

0:23:15.880 --> 0:23:17.560
<v Speaker 1>what's going on with the dog, Matt, What do you have?

0:23:18.000 --> 0:23:20.879
<v Speaker 2>Well, he got the bone next to a plastic NERF

0:23:20.920 --> 0:23:24.600
<v Speaker 2>gun launcher, so that was gonna make some some more

0:23:24.640 --> 0:23:27.760
<v Speaker 2>substantial noise than just gnawing, So I had to move

0:23:27.800 --> 0:23:28.480
<v Speaker 2>the NERF gun.

0:23:28.720 --> 0:23:28.920
<v Speaker 4>Fair.

0:23:29.400 --> 0:23:31.560
<v Speaker 1>It's a fair point. So pat Texans laying two and

0:23:31.600 --> 0:23:33.240
<v Speaker 1>a half against the Jets.

0:23:33.080 --> 0:23:35.359
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I'm with you, Dan on the quarterback thing is

0:23:35.359 --> 0:23:37.920
<v Speaker 3>a big thing. I mean it's like basically starting anew

0:23:38.040 --> 0:23:41.800
<v Speaker 3>for Jack Wilson after the long layoff. And yeah, I

0:23:41.840 --> 0:23:46.040
<v Speaker 3>mean a quarterback. We have seen it Russell Wilson. Uh yeah,

0:23:46.240 --> 0:23:48.760
<v Speaker 3>look at how he struggled in his first two games

0:23:48.800 --> 0:23:51.240
<v Speaker 3>back and not as long a layoff either or is

0:23:51.240 --> 0:23:53.840
<v Speaker 3>it about the same I can't remember about the same. Yeah,

0:23:53.880 --> 0:23:57.360
<v Speaker 3>So I agree with you, and I think the Houston

0:23:57.400 --> 0:24:00.280
<v Speaker 3>defense is actually a little bit better than people.

0:24:00.280 --> 0:24:04.600
<v Speaker 2>Maybe give them credit for the one wild card here.

0:24:04.640 --> 0:24:06.600
<v Speaker 3>I think that could hurt you, as if to Rod

0:24:06.640 --> 0:24:10.639
<v Speaker 3>Taylor throws three interceptions like that's the one possibility. But

0:24:10.760 --> 0:24:12.600
<v Speaker 3>you know, if I was betting, if it was a

0:24:12.640 --> 0:24:16.560
<v Speaker 3>prop bet on interceptions Wilson versus Taylor, I would definitely

0:24:16.560 --> 0:24:19.600
<v Speaker 3>be betting Wilson with more interceptions in this.

0:24:19.600 --> 0:24:22.120
<v Speaker 1>Gay so and again, we saw Taylor, by the way,

0:24:22.160 --> 0:24:24.800
<v Speaker 1>in that first game back after his long layoff against Miami,

0:24:24.840 --> 0:24:27.560
<v Speaker 1>look absolutely terrible, right, and that's it. And he looked

0:24:27.560 --> 0:24:29.320
<v Speaker 1>at least a little more competent last week. And he

0:24:29.359 --> 0:24:32.119
<v Speaker 1>has the rushing ability which can extend drives and everything

0:24:32.160 --> 0:24:35.200
<v Speaker 1>like that. So again, I think they can play conservatively here.

0:24:35.240 --> 0:24:38.119
<v Speaker 1>They can beat the Jets pretty easily with Zach Wilson

0:24:38.119 --> 0:24:40.560
<v Speaker 1>in their center. Hope I'm wrong from a personal perspective,

0:24:40.800 --> 0:24:43.720
<v Speaker 1>so I can just enjoy, you know, watching the Jets

0:24:43.760 --> 0:24:45.920
<v Speaker 1>maybe squeak out one of their you know, three or

0:24:45.960 --> 0:24:47.720
<v Speaker 1>four victories on the year. But I do think the

0:24:47.720 --> 0:24:50.400
<v Speaker 1>Texans at home with Wilson's first came back cover this

0:24:50.640 --> 0:24:53.320
<v Speaker 1>short spread. So I will take it with them laying

0:24:53.320 --> 0:24:55.080
<v Speaker 1>two and a half. Again, it's been bouncing back and

0:24:55.119 --> 0:24:56.879
<v Speaker 1>forth between three and two and a half, So if

0:24:56.920 --> 0:24:58.080
<v Speaker 1>I see it at two and a half, that's when

0:24:58.080 --> 0:24:59.600
<v Speaker 1>I would strike it. Set three. I'm going to stay

0:24:59.640 --> 0:25:01.200
<v Speaker 1>with last batpat.

0:25:00.840 --> 0:25:04.520
<v Speaker 3>What he got Okay, so I've got the Rams plus

0:25:04.560 --> 0:25:07.520
<v Speaker 3>one against my beloved Green Bay Packers Dan, and it's

0:25:07.560 --> 0:25:12.439
<v Speaker 3>just i'd like, it's so injury related this one. The

0:25:12.480 --> 0:25:15.760
<v Speaker 3>Packers are just like decimated now and they keep adding

0:25:16.840 --> 0:25:19.760
<v Speaker 3>names to the list unfortunately, like all these not just

0:25:19.880 --> 0:25:24.600
<v Speaker 3>like regular starters, like blue chip guys. Elton Jenkins is

0:25:24.680 --> 0:25:27.760
<v Speaker 3>a big one because they are already without David Baktiori.

0:25:27.840 --> 0:25:30.639
<v Speaker 3>We found out this week that Baktiari had gone undergone

0:25:30.680 --> 0:25:35.520
<v Speaker 3>an initial clean up surgery, which is why his return

0:25:35.600 --> 0:25:37.639
<v Speaker 3>has been delayed. And I mean he did tear his

0:25:37.680 --> 0:25:41.080
<v Speaker 3>acl last New Year's Eve Day, I think, so maybe

0:25:41.119 --> 0:25:43.840
<v Speaker 3>not a surprise that it's taken him so long, but man,

0:25:43.960 --> 0:25:47.480
<v Speaker 3>without Jenkins and boch Tiari like the two anchors of

0:25:47.680 --> 0:25:50.760
<v Speaker 3>you know, maybe the best left side of an offensive

0:25:50.760 --> 0:25:51.640
<v Speaker 3>line in football.

0:25:52.080 --> 0:25:56.120
<v Speaker 2>Rashan Gary not sure about his status. He hyper extended

0:25:56.160 --> 0:25:57.280
<v Speaker 2>his elbow.

0:25:57.920 --> 0:26:01.480
<v Speaker 3>Against two weeks ago, did not play last week in

0:26:01.520 --> 0:26:03.560
<v Speaker 3>the loss of the Vikings. And that's huge because he

0:26:03.600 --> 0:26:06.360
<v Speaker 3>has turned into, you know, one of the premier defensive

0:26:06.400 --> 0:26:10.400
<v Speaker 3>players in the league. And Aaron Jones remains out too,

0:26:10.760 --> 0:26:14.119
<v Speaker 3>so I'm not as big a deal. I mean, aj

0:26:14.240 --> 0:26:18.360
<v Speaker 3>Dillon is terrific, but boy, they're just so under man

0:26:18.520 --> 0:26:21.879
<v Speaker 3>and then you've got the Rams coming in fresh Like,

0:26:21.920 --> 0:26:23.399
<v Speaker 3>I think it's going to be really hard for the

0:26:23.440 --> 0:26:25.840
<v Speaker 3>Packers to win that game. I know they're undefeated in

0:26:25.960 --> 0:26:31.440
<v Speaker 3>Lambeau this year, but you know, give me the money line, bet,

0:26:31.480 --> 0:26:34.840
<v Speaker 3>I think, rather than the one point. Sure, yeah, you

0:26:34.880 --> 0:26:37.560
<v Speaker 3>know I'll always take the money line over the one point.

0:26:38.280 --> 0:26:39.120
<v Speaker 4>Well you might as well.

0:26:39.359 --> 0:26:41.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean, like, I mean, there was a tie, there

0:26:41.520 --> 0:26:43.640
<v Speaker 1>was a tie obviously with the Steelers in the lines. Yeah,

0:26:43.680 --> 0:26:46.359
<v Speaker 1>the money line is you know, minus one ten anyway,

0:26:46.400 --> 0:26:49.639
<v Speaker 1>so it doesn't really matter. But yeah, I agree with

0:26:49.680 --> 0:26:50.600
<v Speaker 1>you on this one. Again.

0:26:50.640 --> 0:26:51.560
<v Speaker 4>The offensive line.

0:26:51.400 --> 0:26:55.119
<v Speaker 1>Injuries for the Packers just really tough to overcome at

0:26:55.119 --> 0:26:57.080
<v Speaker 1>this point. And you have a limited Aaron Rodgers, who

0:26:57.160 --> 0:26:59.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean, he's fantastic and he threw for over three

0:26:59.520 --> 0:27:02.159
<v Speaker 1>hundred yards four touchdown passes in those last game. But

0:27:02.320 --> 0:27:05.440
<v Speaker 1>still against that defense. You've got Von Miller now fully

0:27:05.560 --> 0:27:08.040
<v Speaker 1>sort of you know, ready to go and integrated. You've

0:27:08.040 --> 0:27:10.480
<v Speaker 1>got Obj now sort of you know, another week to

0:27:10.520 --> 0:27:13.000
<v Speaker 1>sort of get acclimated to the offense. Yeah, I agree

0:27:13.000 --> 0:27:14.680
<v Speaker 1>with you. I do think the Rams win this game.

0:27:14.960 --> 0:27:17.280
<v Speaker 1>One of my favorite bets another one that I teased up.

0:27:17.280 --> 0:27:18.640
<v Speaker 1>I'd love for it to get to one and a half,

0:27:18.680 --> 0:27:20.600
<v Speaker 1>so I can get it over seven and a half.

0:27:21.040 --> 0:27:22.840
<v Speaker 1>But I'll take them at seven because I do think

0:27:22.880 --> 0:27:26.440
<v Speaker 1>that you know, worst case scenario, they you know, they

0:27:26.760 --> 0:27:29.480
<v Speaker 1>the Packers eke out a squeaker here. But I like

0:27:29.520 --> 0:27:31.480
<v Speaker 1>the Rams to win this game. So I am backing

0:27:31.480 --> 0:27:33.439
<v Speaker 1>you as well on that one, and I will try you.

0:27:34.000 --> 0:27:35.720
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to take a total here for my last bet,

0:27:35.720 --> 0:27:39.040
<v Speaker 1>it's the Titans and the Patriots under forty four. You've

0:27:39.080 --> 0:27:42.440
<v Speaker 1>just got two really solid defenses here in this game.

0:27:43.359 --> 0:27:45.600
<v Speaker 1>The Titans are twelfth in defensive DVOA. Like, I don't

0:27:45.600 --> 0:27:48.280
<v Speaker 1>know when that happened, right, their their defense was kind

0:27:48.320 --> 0:27:49.960
<v Speaker 1>of something that we felt like we could pick on

0:27:49.960 --> 0:27:51.840
<v Speaker 1>earlier in the season. But the Pats obviously have a

0:27:51.840 --> 0:27:54.720
<v Speaker 1>great defense there second to DVOA defensive DVOA.

0:27:55.000 --> 0:27:56.119
<v Speaker 4>They both run the ball a time.

0:27:56.160 --> 0:27:57.960
<v Speaker 1>The Titans run the ball forty six percent of the time,

0:27:58.000 --> 0:27:59.920
<v Speaker 1>the Pats forty five percent of the time. Both that's

0:28:00.080 --> 0:28:03.000
<v Speaker 1>top ten in the NFL. They both play slow. The

0:28:03.040 --> 0:28:05.720
<v Speaker 1>Titans are twenty third in neutral situation pace of play.

0:28:05.840 --> 0:28:08.440
<v Speaker 1>The Pats are twenty fourth in neutral situation base of play.

0:28:08.560 --> 0:28:11.720
<v Speaker 1>So this is going to be a slow, methodical, run

0:28:11.760 --> 0:28:14.440
<v Speaker 1>heavy game and the Titans are gonna have no weapons.

0:28:14.480 --> 0:28:16.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm not expecting aj Brown to suit up in this one.

0:28:16.400 --> 0:28:19.520
<v Speaker 1>I know he had negative X rays, but even if

0:28:19.520 --> 0:28:21.560
<v Speaker 1>he does, they're just gonna double them, you know, give

0:28:21.720 --> 0:28:24.400
<v Speaker 1>safety help over at the top. Anyway, So you look

0:28:24.400 --> 0:28:27.160
<v Speaker 1>at the games without Derrick Henry for the Titans forty

0:28:27.160 --> 0:28:29.840
<v Speaker 1>four points against the Rams, forty four points against the Saints,

0:28:29.840 --> 0:28:32.240
<v Speaker 1>thirty five points against the Texans, and I realized two

0:28:32.400 --> 0:28:35.440
<v Speaker 1>good defensive teams, but they'll have one here as well.

0:28:35.480 --> 0:28:37.680
<v Speaker 1>And then the Texans game was you know, in the rain.

0:28:37.760 --> 0:28:41.000
<v Speaker 1>But this is just a slow defensive game, Pat, I

0:28:41.000 --> 0:28:43.640
<v Speaker 1>don't feel I don't have good like feeling on who's

0:28:43.640 --> 0:28:43.880
<v Speaker 1>going to.

0:28:43.880 --> 0:28:45.240
<v Speaker 4>Cover the six and a half points spread.

0:28:45.600 --> 0:28:47.400
<v Speaker 1>But it does strike me as just a game that's

0:28:47.400 --> 0:28:49.719
<v Speaker 1>not gonna, you know, involve a ton of points here,

0:28:49.760 --> 0:28:52.800
<v Speaker 1>a lot of running slow. So forty four is not

0:28:52.840 --> 0:28:54.560
<v Speaker 1>like a huge total or anything like that. It's on

0:28:54.560 --> 0:28:56.440
<v Speaker 1>the lower side. But I do think this one comes.

0:28:56.320 --> 0:28:59.800
<v Speaker 3>Under Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the side. I was

0:28:59.760 --> 0:29:03.880
<v Speaker 3>going to ask which way, because yeah, same here. I mean,

0:29:03.920 --> 0:29:06.560
<v Speaker 3>I've got New England in a survivor pool where I'm

0:29:06.600 --> 0:29:09.240
<v Speaker 3>kind of limping along and don't have that many options left.

0:29:09.760 --> 0:29:12.360
<v Speaker 3>But like, I don't feel great about them covering that

0:29:12.400 --> 0:29:16.040
<v Speaker 3>biggest spread, especially against a Titans team that's been.

0:29:16.000 --> 0:29:18.480
<v Speaker 2>Kind of a giant slayer this year.

0:29:18.640 --> 0:29:23.680
<v Speaker 3>So not that you know, we consider the Patriots giants yet,

0:29:24.040 --> 0:29:27.120
<v Speaker 3>but it's it's kind of interesting they're playing so well.

0:29:28.400 --> 0:29:31.960
<v Speaker 3>But yes, the formula for them playing so well is

0:29:32.080 --> 0:29:36.200
<v Speaker 3>defense and ball control and you know, keeping everything sort

0:29:36.200 --> 0:29:38.760
<v Speaker 3>of manageable, like in Belichick is doing a great job

0:29:38.800 --> 0:29:39.040
<v Speaker 3>with that.

0:29:39.120 --> 0:29:40.080
<v Speaker 2>No surprise there.

0:29:40.400 --> 0:29:43.280
<v Speaker 3>You mentioned that both teams are like in the bottom

0:29:43.440 --> 0:29:46.720
<v Speaker 3>eight or bottom nine as far as pace. I think

0:29:46.720 --> 0:29:48.360
<v Speaker 3>the under is a pretty good play here.

0:29:48.760 --> 0:29:51.719
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and again something flukey can always happen, but this

0:29:51.760 --> 0:29:53.800
<v Speaker 1>strikes me as a game I'm going to be shocked

0:29:53.800 --> 0:29:56.440
<v Speaker 1>given just the injuries, especially for the Titans, if this

0:29:56.520 --> 0:29:57.120
<v Speaker 1>game goes over.

0:29:57.160 --> 0:29:57.680
<v Speaker 4>So I do like that.

0:29:57.720 --> 0:29:59.800
<v Speaker 1>All right, let me recap very quickly, pat you like

0:29:59.840 --> 0:30:02.320
<v Speaker 1>the getting three against the Bears, the Raiders and the

0:30:02.360 --> 0:30:05.040
<v Speaker 1>Cowboys under. We'll call it fifty and a half right now.

0:30:05.240 --> 0:30:07.800
<v Speaker 1>It was fifty one earlier and the Rams getting one

0:30:07.840 --> 0:30:09.880
<v Speaker 1>from the Packers. I like the Steelers getting four and

0:30:09.920 --> 0:30:12.880
<v Speaker 1>a half from the Bengals, the Texans laying two and

0:30:12.880 --> 0:30:14.640
<v Speaker 1>a half to the Jets, and the Titans, and the

0:30:14.680 --> 0:30:16.880
<v Speaker 1>Pats under forty four points. So here's what I'd like

0:30:16.920 --> 0:30:19.600
<v Speaker 1>to do now, Pat, Let's quickly run through the remaining spreads,

0:30:19.720 --> 0:30:21.400
<v Speaker 1>talk about whether or not we have a lean one

0:30:21.400 --> 0:30:23.360
<v Speaker 1>way or another, we like any of them. Then let's

0:30:23.360 --> 0:30:25.160
<v Speaker 1>get to some player profits for the Thanksgiving game.

0:30:25.240 --> 0:30:25.800
<v Speaker 4>Sound good to you?

0:30:26.160 --> 0:30:26.720
<v Speaker 2>Sounds great?

0:30:26.840 --> 0:30:28.200
<v Speaker 4>Dan, dog under control?

0:30:29.000 --> 0:30:29.320
<v Speaker 1>He is.

0:30:29.480 --> 0:30:33.000
<v Speaker 3>He's still gnawing very contentedly so, and I think he

0:30:33.040 --> 0:30:35.120
<v Speaker 3>would be for the next four hours if I let him.

0:30:35.400 --> 0:30:38.280
<v Speaker 1>Your dog is better than mine, So we said, Pat,

0:30:38.280 --> 0:30:40.480
<v Speaker 1>that for the Cowboys laying seven and a half here

0:30:40.520 --> 0:30:42.960
<v Speaker 1>on Thanksgiving, that's just a stay away for you. You

0:30:42.960 --> 0:30:45.200
<v Speaker 1>think the Cowboys win, but you don't confidently feel it's

0:30:45.200 --> 0:30:46.920
<v Speaker 1>going to be by seven and a half point correct?

0:30:47.200 --> 0:30:48.320
<v Speaker 2>Correct, Yeah, I'm.

0:30:48.160 --> 0:30:49.120
<v Speaker 4>Gonna agree with you. Again.

0:30:49.200 --> 0:30:51.000
<v Speaker 1>This is a spot where I tease him down if

0:30:51.000 --> 0:30:52.800
<v Speaker 1>you can find a teaser piece. Again, I've done it

0:30:52.920 --> 0:30:54.640
<v Speaker 1>in the same game, and I've teased the total up.

0:30:54.640 --> 0:30:56.480
<v Speaker 1>But I've also done it with the Steelers getting four

0:30:56.480 --> 0:30:58.480
<v Speaker 1>and a half, moving that up to ten and a half,

0:30:58.480 --> 0:31:01.000
<v Speaker 1>So that's also where i'd go the Bills. This spread

0:31:01.040 --> 0:31:05.080
<v Speaker 1>is moving here, Pat, it was six, it was four originally.

0:31:05.360 --> 0:31:07.920
<v Speaker 1>My guess is because the running back injuries. Maybe I

0:31:08.080 --> 0:31:10.320
<v Speaker 1>don't know, or maybe money's coming in here on the Bills.

0:31:10.560 --> 0:31:12.640
<v Speaker 1>It's moved to six. Now it's six and a half

0:31:12.800 --> 0:31:16.040
<v Speaker 1>as of this moment for the consensus spread. That's a

0:31:16.080 --> 0:31:18.760
<v Speaker 1>big number. I do think the Bills win this game, Pat,

0:31:18.760 --> 0:31:21.480
<v Speaker 1>but six and a half against the Saints in New Orleans,

0:31:21.640 --> 0:31:23.280
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, it feels like something I might want

0:31:23.320 --> 0:31:23.760
<v Speaker 1>to avoid.

0:31:24.560 --> 0:31:27.840
<v Speaker 3>You know, I'm probably gonna play the Bills for like

0:31:27.920 --> 0:31:31.200
<v Speaker 3>maybe a one unit play here. Like I don't know

0:31:31.240 --> 0:31:34.240
<v Speaker 3>if we can still call the Bills defense great after

0:31:34.280 --> 0:31:36.840
<v Speaker 3>what Jonathan Taylor did to them last week, but like

0:31:36.920 --> 0:31:39.400
<v Speaker 3>this is still a really good put.

0:31:39.240 --> 0:31:39.640
<v Speaker 2>It this way.

0:31:39.680 --> 0:31:41.640
<v Speaker 3>I don't know how this New Orleans offense is going

0:31:41.720 --> 0:31:44.240
<v Speaker 3>to move the ball against the Bills. It just seems

0:31:44.680 --> 0:31:48.760
<v Speaker 3>like not only having Trevor Simmy in a quarterback, likely

0:31:48.800 --> 0:31:51.680
<v Speaker 3>not having Alvin Kamara, perhaps not mark ingram at running

0:31:51.680 --> 0:31:56.200
<v Speaker 3>back either, but like no Ryan Ramcheck at right tackle.

0:31:56.320 --> 0:32:00.040
<v Speaker 3>I mean, he didn't practice again, yesterday Arren Armstead, but

0:32:00.120 --> 0:32:02.000
<v Speaker 3>I think got a limited.

0:32:01.640 --> 0:32:03.200
<v Speaker 2>Practice in that would help.

0:32:03.240 --> 0:32:06.560
<v Speaker 3>But like if Armstein Ramcheck were both out against the Bills,

0:32:06.880 --> 0:32:10.760
<v Speaker 3>it would be pretty hopeless. So I have to take

0:32:10.800 --> 0:32:12.800
<v Speaker 3>the Bills in this. And plus you have to know

0:32:12.840 --> 0:32:16.120
<v Speaker 3>they're going to be smarting after what the Colts did

0:32:16.160 --> 0:32:18.320
<v Speaker 3>with them last week pretty much just embarrassed them.

0:32:18.400 --> 0:32:22.200
<v Speaker 2>So yeah, I don't know what Sean.

0:32:21.960 --> 0:32:25.640
<v Speaker 3>Payton could possibly have his up his sleeve to get

0:32:25.640 --> 0:32:28.920
<v Speaker 3>more than you know, seventeen to twenty points on the

0:32:28.920 --> 0:32:31.000
<v Speaker 3>board this week against Buffalo Gas.

0:32:31.040 --> 0:32:33.200
<v Speaker 1>Can you explain to me, Pat why they don't go

0:32:33.600 --> 0:32:36.920
<v Speaker 1>to Taysom Hill and just try something like they went

0:32:36.960 --> 0:32:37.680
<v Speaker 1>to him last.

0:32:37.520 --> 0:32:38.960
<v Speaker 4>Year when we were all like what are you doing?

0:32:39.240 --> 0:32:39.440
<v Speaker 2>Right?

0:32:39.880 --> 0:32:41.240
<v Speaker 4>Why they won't go to him this year?

0:32:41.240 --> 0:32:44.080
<v Speaker 1>And especially after that big extension, right, which is weird

0:32:44.120 --> 0:32:47.760
<v Speaker 1>obviously the extension, but still why not make that switch,

0:32:48.000 --> 0:32:48.960
<v Speaker 1>especially in this game?

0:32:49.120 --> 0:32:49.880
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I don't know.

0:32:49.920 --> 0:32:52.040
<v Speaker 3>I mean, like, looking at the numbers, they haven't been

0:32:52.080 --> 0:32:53.920
<v Speaker 3>that awful for Simmon, at least not in the first

0:32:53.920 --> 0:32:54.320
<v Speaker 3>two games.

0:32:54.360 --> 0:32:55.600
<v Speaker 2>But it's all been garbage time.

0:32:55.640 --> 0:32:58.600
<v Speaker 3>It's all He's doing everything in the fourth quarter after

0:32:58.640 --> 0:33:01.320
<v Speaker 3>the Saints are hopelessly out of yeah, and you give,

0:33:01.480 --> 0:33:04.880
<v Speaker 3>like Taysom Hill all this money to just be the

0:33:05.120 --> 0:33:08.280
<v Speaker 3>uh you know. It's and I'm totally getting ahead of

0:33:08.280 --> 0:33:10.440
<v Speaker 3>myself here, Dan, It's why I kind of like Taysom

0:33:10.520 --> 0:33:12.040
<v Speaker 3>Hill is in any time touchdown.

0:33:13.080 --> 0:33:15.840
<v Speaker 1>All right, well, all right, we're gonna get that. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

0:33:15.840 --> 0:33:16.280
<v Speaker 1>I love it.

0:33:16.320 --> 0:33:16.640
<v Speaker 2>I love it.

0:33:16.640 --> 0:33:18.720
<v Speaker 1>All right, Let's go to the Falcons on the road

0:33:18.760 --> 0:33:21.640
<v Speaker 1>against the Jaguars. Falcons playing one. Any thoughts on this?

0:33:22.440 --> 0:33:25.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, I'm probably gonna put a little.

0:33:24.960 --> 0:33:28.880
<v Speaker 3>Something on Jacksonville in this because I think Jacksonville has

0:33:29.160 --> 0:33:35.080
<v Speaker 3>actually like an NFL caliber, credible defense and Atlanta is

0:33:35.160 --> 0:33:39.280
<v Speaker 3>just even coming off the I don't like betting against

0:33:39.360 --> 0:33:43.440
<v Speaker 3>teams coming off bad, embarrassing losses if they're good enough

0:33:43.480 --> 0:33:45.880
<v Speaker 3>to do something about it. I don't think Atlanta is

0:33:45.920 --> 0:33:47.400
<v Speaker 3>good enough to do something about it.

0:33:48.000 --> 0:33:50.920
<v Speaker 1>All right, to stay away from me, But I do

0:33:50.960 --> 0:33:52.600
<v Speaker 1>think that I might go with the Falcons if I

0:33:52.680 --> 0:33:55.040
<v Speaker 1>had to go somewhere. It depends on if Corduo Patterson

0:33:55.280 --> 0:33:56.920
<v Speaker 1>is back for this one, which obviously we need to

0:33:56.920 --> 0:33:58.840
<v Speaker 1>wait and see, because without it there forget about it

0:33:58.880 --> 0:34:01.720
<v Speaker 1>their offensivest. But I just can't back the Jaguars I

0:34:01.720 --> 0:34:03.920
<v Speaker 1>don't care whether or not all the sort of metrics

0:34:03.960 --> 0:34:06.040
<v Speaker 1>say I should back the Jaguars, which basically does say

0:34:06.080 --> 0:34:09.000
<v Speaker 1>every single game. I just can't do it with Ervin Meyer.

0:34:09.239 --> 0:34:13.080
<v Speaker 1>Interesting one here, Pat Bucks visiting the Colts laying three.

0:34:13.880 --> 0:34:16.440
<v Speaker 1>I mean, Colts coming off that giant win against Buffalo.

0:34:16.800 --> 0:34:17.360
<v Speaker 4>What do you think?

0:34:17.880 --> 0:34:19.440
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, this is where I start to sound like a

0:34:19.440 --> 0:34:21.759
<v Speaker 3>broken record den saying that I don't have a lien

0:34:21.920 --> 0:34:25.160
<v Speaker 3>on you knowpe near these games, and you know it's

0:34:25.360 --> 0:34:28.239
<v Speaker 3>a betting podcast, and like, saying that you don't have

0:34:28.280 --> 0:34:29.719
<v Speaker 3>a lien on a lot of games is kind of

0:34:29.880 --> 0:34:32.960
<v Speaker 3>a bad way to go about doing things. But I

0:34:33.000 --> 0:34:35.719
<v Speaker 3>really don't I mean, the line seems pretty spot on.

0:34:36.560 --> 0:34:39.160
<v Speaker 2>You know, if I if I were going to bet

0:34:39.360 --> 0:34:41.160
<v Speaker 2>this game at all, I would probably go with the

0:34:41.160 --> 0:34:44.839
<v Speaker 2>home dog here. But you know, with Tampa coming off

0:34:44.840 --> 0:34:46.600
<v Speaker 2>the Monday.

0:34:46.280 --> 0:34:49.440
<v Speaker 3>Night er, sort of a short work week, you know,

0:34:49.600 --> 0:34:51.680
<v Speaker 3>presumably they're getting a little extra time off for the

0:34:51.680 --> 0:34:52.359
<v Speaker 3>holidays too.

0:34:52.400 --> 0:34:56.279
<v Speaker 2>But yeah, I just I don't have a strong lean

0:34:56.320 --> 0:34:56.960
<v Speaker 2>in this one.

0:34:57.480 --> 0:34:59.560
<v Speaker 1>So I want to make it clear in my opinion,

0:34:59.640 --> 0:35:02.200
<v Speaker 1>at least, if you're on a betting podcast, there is

0:35:02.239 --> 0:35:04.279
<v Speaker 1>nothing wrong with saying you don't have a lean on

0:35:04.320 --> 0:35:06.799
<v Speaker 1>something because as much as people might want to bet

0:35:06.880 --> 0:35:08.719
<v Speaker 1>every single game, and we have, I guess it's come

0:35:08.760 --> 0:35:10.960
<v Speaker 1>on the show Ian McMillan, who is doing just that

0:35:11.120 --> 0:35:14.200
<v Speaker 1>this entire year, God bless him, but that's not what

0:35:14.239 --> 0:35:17.040
<v Speaker 1>we do. Like we pick our spots. And I agree

0:35:17.040 --> 0:35:19.080
<v Speaker 1>with you, I actually have no feel for this game.

0:35:19.160 --> 0:35:21.319
<v Speaker 1>I have no idea how that this game is going

0:35:21.400 --> 0:35:23.719
<v Speaker 1>to play out. The Bucks have been a little disappointing,

0:35:23.719 --> 0:35:25.640
<v Speaker 1>and I know they beat up on the Giants, but

0:35:25.719 --> 0:35:28.560
<v Speaker 1>I'm not really taking anything from that. And the Colts

0:35:28.600 --> 0:35:31.480
<v Speaker 1>have been playing extremely, extremely well not it does sound

0:35:31.520 --> 0:35:33.160
<v Speaker 1>like B to A and may come back in this one,

0:35:33.200 --> 0:35:36.600
<v Speaker 1>Pat and that's gonna be. That's gonna be the irresistible

0:35:36.640 --> 0:35:39.720
<v Speaker 1>Forrest meets the Immovable object over there with Jonathan Taylor.

0:35:40.000 --> 0:35:43.040
<v Speaker 1>But it's something where I just I'm gonna watch the game.

0:35:43.120 --> 0:35:45.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna enjoy it, watch the game without any sort

0:35:45.160 --> 0:35:47.440
<v Speaker 1>of betting. I'm not gonna watch this one, but I

0:35:47.480 --> 0:35:49.920
<v Speaker 1>probably I'm gonna also sit out from a betting perspective.

0:35:49.920 --> 0:35:52.560
<v Speaker 1>That's the Panthers visiting the Dolphins, and the Panthers are

0:35:52.640 --> 0:35:54.560
<v Speaker 1>laying now one and a half. I think it was

0:35:54.600 --> 0:35:56.640
<v Speaker 1>one earlier when Joe and I looked at it, so

0:35:56.719 --> 0:35:58.200
<v Speaker 1>any thoughts on that now?

0:35:58.320 --> 0:36:00.600
<v Speaker 3>Another one where I pretty much just threw my hands

0:36:00.680 --> 0:36:04.319
<v Speaker 3>up in a pool where we have to pick out

0:36:04.320 --> 0:36:07.279
<v Speaker 3>of your game against the spread. I took Carolina just

0:36:07.360 --> 0:36:10.520
<v Speaker 3>thinking they maybe keep the Cam Newton mojo rolling.

0:36:10.600 --> 0:36:14.120
<v Speaker 2>But you know, that's about all I could pin anything on,

0:36:14.200 --> 0:36:14.520
<v Speaker 2>and it.

0:36:14.600 --> 0:36:16.879
<v Speaker 3>Just didn't feel like a didn't feel like a real

0:36:16.960 --> 0:36:17.759
<v Speaker 3>confident pick.

0:36:18.280 --> 0:36:20.239
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's I would go with the Panthers if I

0:36:20.320 --> 0:36:22.840
<v Speaker 1>had to go somewhere. I don't, thankfully, I would just

0:36:22.880 --> 0:36:24.880
<v Speaker 1>because of the defense. They are still again that that

0:36:25.320 --> 0:36:28.719
<v Speaker 1>seventh playoff spot in the NFC is going, it's it's

0:36:29.160 --> 0:36:32.760
<v Speaker 1>really made things fun because every team is basically involved

0:36:32.760 --> 0:36:35.520
<v Speaker 1>in it. And obviously the Panthers have have gone all

0:36:35.560 --> 0:36:38.000
<v Speaker 1>in on this season, you know, given the trade for

0:36:38.080 --> 0:36:40.279
<v Speaker 1>Gilmour and everything they're sort of doing, and I think

0:36:40.280 --> 0:36:42.640
<v Speaker 1>the defense is going to be enough here to you know,

0:36:42.960 --> 0:36:44.320
<v Speaker 1>have them eat out a win in at one and

0:36:44.360 --> 0:36:46.320
<v Speaker 1>a half. I would go there, but again, not somewhere

0:36:46.320 --> 0:36:48.080
<v Speaker 1>I want to go if I can avoid it. We

0:36:48.160 --> 0:36:50.279
<v Speaker 1>talked already about the Jets and the Texans, and the

0:36:50.280 --> 0:36:52.399
<v Speaker 1>Texans are laying two and a half points. I will

0:36:52.400 --> 0:36:54.280
<v Speaker 1>say again, I see a couple of threes at points

0:36:54.320 --> 0:36:56.520
<v Speaker 1>bet and fox bet again. I don't like it there,

0:36:56.680 --> 0:36:58.520
<v Speaker 1>but the consensus sign of betting pros is two and

0:36:58.560 --> 0:37:00.600
<v Speaker 1>a half. It is where I would go. The Pats

0:37:00.600 --> 0:37:02.400
<v Speaker 1>are laying the six and a half to the Titans.

0:37:02.440 --> 0:37:04.359
<v Speaker 1>We both agreed, it's just a game that we kind

0:37:04.360 --> 0:37:07.160
<v Speaker 1>of want to stay away from entirely other than the

0:37:07.200 --> 0:37:11.400
<v Speaker 1>total correct Yeah, okay, very good. The Eagles pat are

0:37:11.480 --> 0:37:14.560
<v Speaker 1>visiting the Giants laying three and a half here. I

0:37:14.600 --> 0:37:16.759
<v Speaker 1>think it was three when it opened up. After the

0:37:16.800 --> 0:37:18.680
<v Speaker 1>game on Monday night it went to three and a half.

0:37:18.680 --> 0:37:19.160
<v Speaker 4>What do you think?

0:37:19.200 --> 0:37:21.600
<v Speaker 1>Eagles are rolling? Giants look like in disarray. But it's

0:37:21.600 --> 0:37:24.960
<v Speaker 1>a divisional game. Seems too easy to pick the Eagles almost.

0:37:24.680 --> 0:37:26.680
<v Speaker 3>It does seem too easy, And it feels like I'm

0:37:26.680 --> 0:37:29.879
<v Speaker 3>walking into a snare trap here day. But so maybe

0:37:29.920 --> 0:37:32.719
<v Speaker 3>I'll be hanging upside down by my feet after I

0:37:32.760 --> 0:37:35.880
<v Speaker 3>bet the Eagles on this one. But that's kind of

0:37:35.880 --> 0:37:40.279
<v Speaker 3>it momentum. I mean, the Eagles have been they've been

0:37:40.280 --> 0:37:45.200
<v Speaker 3>getting it done with this bizarrely conservative game plan. I mean,

0:37:45.480 --> 0:37:48.840
<v Speaker 3>it's totally working. They're playing Ravens.

0:37:48.440 --> 0:37:52.160
<v Speaker 2>Ball basically, and it's worked very well for them.

0:37:52.600 --> 0:37:57.239
<v Speaker 3>Their defense is credible, and the Giants just look completely.

0:37:56.760 --> 0:37:59.600
<v Speaker 2>Lost on offense on Monday Night. It's worriesome.

0:38:00.239 --> 0:38:03.920
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, you know, how soon can they circle the wagons

0:38:03.960 --> 0:38:07.720
<v Speaker 3>after getting rid of Jason Garrett? You know, Jason Garrett

0:38:07.760 --> 0:38:12.360
<v Speaker 3>may it may cure some ailments, but not everyone. And

0:38:12.719 --> 0:38:15.840
<v Speaker 3>Daniel Jones just look terrible on Monday night. My goodness.

0:38:16.040 --> 0:38:19.560
<v Speaker 3>So I'm gonna take the Eagles here, even though it

0:38:19.760 --> 0:38:24.240
<v Speaker 3>feels suspect like I am walking into a dark alley.

0:38:24.880 --> 0:38:26.600
<v Speaker 1>For certain, if I had to go one way, it

0:38:26.640 --> 0:38:28.880
<v Speaker 1>would be the Eagles. But it definitely just feels like

0:38:28.920 --> 0:38:31.240
<v Speaker 1>the books are saying, go ahead, take the Eagles.

0:38:31.600 --> 0:38:33.400
<v Speaker 4>You know you want to take the Eagles. Take the Eagles.

0:38:33.440 --> 0:38:35.359
<v Speaker 1>And that always scares me a little bit enough where

0:38:35.360 --> 0:38:37.320
<v Speaker 1>I will second guess it. But again, if I'm in

0:38:37.360 --> 0:38:39.360
<v Speaker 1>a pool like yours where I have to go somewhere,

0:38:39.600 --> 0:38:41.600
<v Speaker 1>I've got to go with the Eagles. But again, divisional

0:38:41.600 --> 0:38:45.560
<v Speaker 1>game home dog seems too easy. It gets me a

0:38:45.600 --> 0:38:47.799
<v Speaker 1>little worried with it. But yeah, I would go that

0:38:47.840 --> 0:38:49.560
<v Speaker 1>way if I had to, just because that seems right.

0:38:49.680 --> 0:38:51.720
<v Speaker 1>I mentioned Pat the Broncos and the Chargers. The spread

0:38:51.840 --> 0:38:53.560
<v Speaker 1>is two and a half here with the Broncos as

0:38:53.640 --> 0:38:57.240
<v Speaker 1>home dogs. Any lean at all on this game ever.

0:38:57.160 --> 0:39:00.200
<v Speaker 3>So slightly too the home dog with the Broncos, but

0:39:00.800 --> 0:39:02.879
<v Speaker 3>not one that I'm probably going to play.

0:39:02.960 --> 0:39:05.200
<v Speaker 2>I think that's just who I picked in that pool.

0:39:05.719 --> 0:39:07.640
<v Speaker 1>Yep, I agree, I had to pick it, I'd still

0:39:07.640 --> 0:39:10.319
<v Speaker 1>go Broncos two and a half, But you know, below three,

0:39:10.400 --> 0:39:12.240
<v Speaker 1>it's a game I want to stay away from. Vikings

0:39:12.280 --> 0:39:15.000
<v Speaker 1>are visiting the forty nine Ers. The consensus line is three.

0:39:15.120 --> 0:39:17.280
<v Speaker 1>Oddly enough, my book is at three and a half

0:39:17.640 --> 0:39:20.799
<v Speaker 1>on DraftKings, which usually I always feel like the spot

0:39:20.840 --> 0:39:22.520
<v Speaker 1>I'd want to go is always on the other way

0:39:22.560 --> 0:39:24.960
<v Speaker 1>with DraftKings, they're always I feel like a little sharper

0:39:25.200 --> 0:39:27.080
<v Speaker 1>than what I want. But at three and a half,

0:39:27.120 --> 0:39:28.960
<v Speaker 1>that's mildly intriguing there with the Vikings.

0:39:29.000 --> 0:39:30.280
<v Speaker 4>But what do you think about it? At three?

0:39:30.920 --> 0:39:34.600
<v Speaker 3>That half point would make a world of difference, considering

0:39:34.600 --> 0:39:38.040
<v Speaker 3>that every game the Vikings play is a you know,

0:39:38.200 --> 0:39:40.440
<v Speaker 3>one possession game. Yeah. I've got some friends up in

0:39:40.480 --> 0:39:43.279
<v Speaker 3>Minnesota who have had years taken off their lives by

0:39:43.320 --> 0:39:48.080
<v Speaker 3>this Viking season so far, and getting the hook there

0:39:48.120 --> 0:39:52.760
<v Speaker 3>would be fantastic. I'm hoping I can find it somewhere

0:39:52.800 --> 0:39:54.520
<v Speaker 3>because I'd like to bet the Vikings at three and

0:39:54.600 --> 0:39:57.160
<v Speaker 3>a half. At three, I'll be a little less enthusiastic.

0:39:57.239 --> 0:39:59.360
<v Speaker 3>May put a little something on them anyway, though.

0:39:59.560 --> 0:40:01.360
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I do think it's worth it.

0:40:01.400 --> 0:40:04.480
<v Speaker 1>And again, shan you know Kyle Shanahan not he's a

0:40:04.520 --> 0:40:07.000
<v Speaker 1>little Mike Tomliny. You kind of want to back him

0:40:07.320 --> 0:40:09.360
<v Speaker 1>as a dog and maybe not so much as a

0:40:09.360 --> 0:40:12.480
<v Speaker 1>favorite in this one. So yeah, it is hard attach season.

0:40:12.520 --> 0:40:15.239
<v Speaker 1>And again that's basically it. There are a couple of

0:40:15.320 --> 0:40:18.600
<v Speaker 1>random strays out there at three and a half with DraftKings,

0:40:18.640 --> 0:40:21.240
<v Speaker 1>but for the most part it's at three. So yeah,

0:40:21.360 --> 0:40:23.640
<v Speaker 1>if you get three and a half, I'd be willing

0:40:23.640 --> 0:40:25.640
<v Speaker 1>to go to the Vikings. I'll probably stay away from

0:40:25.640 --> 0:40:27.960
<v Speaker 1>it just because, man, I hate backing Kirk Cousins. It

0:40:28.000 --> 0:40:30.479
<v Speaker 1>makes my heart hurt. Ravens are at home here here

0:40:30.600 --> 0:40:33.799
<v Speaker 1>Pat against the Browns. Consensus line is three and a half.

0:40:33.920 --> 0:40:36.000
<v Speaker 1>That MGM is at four our sponsor, but it's at

0:40:36.000 --> 0:40:37.800
<v Speaker 1>three and a half for the most part out there.

0:40:38.120 --> 0:40:40.160
<v Speaker 1>Weird game, Pat, I mean, you've got Kareem Hunt was

0:40:40.160 --> 0:40:42.800
<v Speaker 1>just designated to return from I r as was Jack Conklin.

0:40:42.880 --> 0:40:44.120
<v Speaker 1>Don't know whether or not they're going to be able

0:40:44.120 --> 0:40:47.319
<v Speaker 1>to suit up here. You've got the illness concerns for

0:40:47.600 --> 0:40:50.799
<v Speaker 1>the Ravens with Lamar Jackson and Markis Brown. I don't

0:40:50.840 --> 0:40:53.640
<v Speaker 1>know pat home Ravens laying three and a half.

0:40:54.360 --> 0:40:56.600
<v Speaker 3>Well, you know, I'm in that pool, Dan, where Michael

0:40:56.600 --> 0:40:59.279
<v Speaker 3>Beller's pool where we thirty two of us are are

0:40:59.360 --> 0:41:02.120
<v Speaker 3>drawn team before the season and half to bet that

0:41:02.680 --> 0:41:04.399
<v Speaker 3>team against the spread every week.

0:41:04.440 --> 0:41:04.960
<v Speaker 2>And I drew the.

0:41:05.000 --> 0:41:08.399
<v Speaker 3>Ravens this week, clipping along at four and six with them.

0:41:08.440 --> 0:41:11.000
<v Speaker 3>So whatever I pick for this game, you probably want

0:41:11.000 --> 0:41:13.399
<v Speaker 3>to go the opposite way, a game that I will

0:41:13.440 --> 0:41:16.080
<v Speaker 3>not be betting myself. But I did pick the Ravens

0:41:16.320 --> 0:41:19.560
<v Speaker 3>at home. I always have a hard time going against

0:41:19.600 --> 0:41:23.160
<v Speaker 3>the Ravens at home, and that's kind of hurt me.

0:41:23.360 --> 0:41:28.040
<v Speaker 3>I don't think they're great ats in home games this year,

0:41:28.239 --> 0:41:33.040
<v Speaker 3>So yeah, and I mean it is worrisome the Cleveland

0:41:33.080 --> 0:41:36.160
<v Speaker 3>is getting healthier again. I mean, Conklin would be a

0:41:36.200 --> 0:41:38.960
<v Speaker 3>big deal for them, and Hunt too. I mean to

0:41:39.040 --> 0:41:41.479
<v Speaker 3>give them that two headed attack, which they need because

0:41:41.480 --> 0:41:44.840
<v Speaker 3>their passing game is not very potent.

0:41:46.280 --> 0:41:48.320
<v Speaker 2>So slight lean towards.

0:41:48.120 --> 0:41:51.120
<v Speaker 3>The ravens here, but certainly not a recommendation to all

0:41:51.160 --> 0:41:52.120
<v Speaker 3>of our friends out there.

0:41:52.480 --> 0:41:54.719
<v Speaker 1>And again, designated to return doesn't mean, of course, that

0:41:54.760 --> 0:41:56.840
<v Speaker 1>they're going to come back this week necessarily. It just

0:41:56.920 --> 0:41:59.799
<v Speaker 1>means that they practice, you know, twenty one day windows open,

0:41:59.840 --> 0:42:02.520
<v Speaker 1>so so hopefully they get back. Alex El, who is

0:42:02.560 --> 0:42:04.239
<v Speaker 1>here with us, is asking what do you think about

0:42:04.280 --> 0:42:04.680
<v Speaker 1>the total?

0:42:04.719 --> 0:42:07.839
<v Speaker 4>Pat? He likes the under. It's forty five right now.

0:42:08.000 --> 0:42:10.480
<v Speaker 1>Now what's interesting, Pat, is this is all over the

0:42:10.480 --> 0:42:12.200
<v Speaker 1>place from what I can see, And my guess is

0:42:12.200 --> 0:42:15.200
<v Speaker 1>it's because of the health considerations. Forty five is consensus,

0:42:15.200 --> 0:42:16.719
<v Speaker 1>but it's all the way up to forty six and

0:42:16.760 --> 0:42:20.040
<v Speaker 1>a half at bet MGM, it's at forty six at FanDuel,

0:42:20.320 --> 0:42:23.319
<v Speaker 1>it's forty five at DraftKings. So it's a little all

0:42:23.360 --> 0:42:25.640
<v Speaker 1>over the place right now. Consensus at forty five, but

0:42:25.719 --> 0:42:27.480
<v Speaker 1>you can talk about it if you wanted forty six

0:42:27.480 --> 0:42:27.759
<v Speaker 1>and a half.

0:42:27.800 --> 0:42:28.480
<v Speaker 4>Any lean on that.

0:42:28.880 --> 0:42:31.960
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we also have to take over unders for tiebreaker

0:42:32.040 --> 0:42:34.239
<v Speaker 3>purposes in that pool, and I did take the under

0:42:34.280 --> 0:42:35.600
<v Speaker 3>in this, so I'm with Alex on that.

0:42:35.640 --> 0:42:38.600
<v Speaker 1>One way to go, Alex and Yeah, I'd be inclined

0:42:38.600 --> 0:42:41.520
<v Speaker 1>to agree, just because of the you know how the

0:42:41.560 --> 0:42:43.719
<v Speaker 1>Browns offense is playing right now in the Ravens sort

0:42:43.719 --> 0:42:45.279
<v Speaker 1>of being a little up and down, and again they

0:42:45.360 --> 0:42:47.520
<v Speaker 1>run the ball a lot, even if it's less than

0:42:47.560 --> 0:42:50.799
<v Speaker 1>previous seasons. Last one Monday Night Football. If you bet

0:42:50.840 --> 0:42:53.680
<v Speaker 1>this game, you are an incredible human. The Seahawks are

0:42:53.760 --> 0:42:58.040
<v Speaker 1>getting one in Washington right now. Any thoughts on it whatsoever?

0:42:58.120 --> 0:43:00.279
<v Speaker 3>Pat, No, I completely threw my hands up in the

0:43:00.280 --> 0:43:02.839
<v Speaker 3>air when I saw the line on this one, Dan like,

0:43:02.880 --> 0:43:05.080
<v Speaker 3>I mean, I might have actually flipped a coin to

0:43:05.120 --> 0:43:07.440
<v Speaker 3>make a pick in that point spread pool.

0:43:07.239 --> 0:43:09.360
<v Speaker 4>On Man, this is correct.

0:43:09.520 --> 0:43:12.239
<v Speaker 1>I like it. Okay, there you go. Let's get to

0:43:12.280 --> 0:43:14.960
<v Speaker 1>some props, Pat. So here's what you can do. By

0:43:15.000 --> 0:43:16.319
<v Speaker 1>the way, guys, if you are here with us, if

0:43:16.320 --> 0:43:19.160
<v Speaker 1>you're listening to this, you hopefully know this right now

0:43:19.200 --> 0:43:21.319
<v Speaker 1>if you follow us. But at Betting Pros, we have

0:43:21.480 --> 0:43:22.840
<v Speaker 1>the prop bet sheet sheet.

0:43:22.880 --> 0:43:23.200
<v Speaker 4>Okay.

0:43:23.360 --> 0:43:25.640
<v Speaker 1>What that does is it compares the available lines in

0:43:25.800 --> 0:43:28.759
<v Speaker 1>the market to consensus projections, which we have, and it

0:43:28.920 --> 0:43:32.160
<v Speaker 1>sort of recommends based on the differences between the two.

0:43:32.560 --> 0:43:34.040
<v Speaker 4>It's a great way just to frame it.

0:43:34.120 --> 0:43:36.160
<v Speaker 1>You can sort by game, you can sort by player,

0:43:36.200 --> 0:43:39.000
<v Speaker 1>you can sort buy stack whatever you want to do.

0:43:39.239 --> 0:43:40.440
<v Speaker 4>So it's a really good way to do it.

0:43:40.640 --> 0:43:45.360
<v Speaker 1>Uh, patit. Let's start with the first game, Chicago against Detroit.

0:43:45.680 --> 0:43:47.600
<v Speaker 1>Do you have a player prop that you were eyeing

0:43:47.640 --> 0:43:48.480
<v Speaker 1>in this game?

0:43:49.120 --> 0:43:49.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah?

0:43:49.560 --> 0:43:53.600
<v Speaker 3>So, Darnelle Mooney over fifty six and a half is

0:43:53.640 --> 0:43:57.360
<v Speaker 3>pretty compelling considering that he got sixteen targets with Alan

0:43:57.480 --> 0:44:01.959
<v Speaker 3>Robinson out last week. Sure, if we've gotten definitive word

0:44:02.000 --> 0:44:04.480
<v Speaker 3>on Robinson, but I suspect he is going to be

0:44:04.600 --> 0:44:05.240
<v Speaker 3>out again.

0:44:05.880 --> 0:44:07.880
<v Speaker 4>Yep, if he's in.

0:44:07.920 --> 0:44:09.400
<v Speaker 1>Does that matter to you, by the way, because I

0:44:09.440 --> 0:44:11.040
<v Speaker 1>don't think it would for me. I think I'd still

0:44:11.040 --> 0:44:11.840
<v Speaker 1>take the over on it.

0:44:12.000 --> 0:44:15.040
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean, like, is he that much more of

0:44:15.080 --> 0:44:18.480
<v Speaker 3>a threat to Mooney's target load than Marquise Goodwin is?

0:44:18.560 --> 0:44:19.200
<v Speaker 2>Probably not?

0:44:19.760 --> 0:44:21.480
<v Speaker 4>So Yeah.

0:44:21.520 --> 0:44:25.680
<v Speaker 3>I just plus, we know that the Detroit secondary isn't good.

0:44:25.719 --> 0:44:28.800
<v Speaker 3>They haven't given up a lot of passing yards simply

0:44:28.840 --> 0:44:31.359
<v Speaker 3>because it's really easy to move the all on them

0:44:31.400 --> 0:44:35.359
<v Speaker 3>on the ground. But I still like Mooney as sort

0:44:35.360 --> 0:44:39.200
<v Speaker 3>of the de facto alpha receiver here. Fifty six and

0:44:39.239 --> 0:44:41.520
<v Speaker 3>a half seems like kind of a low bar to clear.

0:44:41.640 --> 0:44:43.640
<v Speaker 3>So that's that's my first one.

0:44:43.880 --> 0:44:46.000
<v Speaker 1>I do love it, and actually what I'm doing PAT

0:44:46.040 --> 0:44:50.240
<v Speaker 1>is for fantasy purposes. I do projections for every fantasy

0:44:50.280 --> 0:44:54.040
<v Speaker 1>relevant player. Again, these are very early projections which I

0:44:54.120 --> 0:44:56.200
<v Speaker 1>refined throughout the week and again this Thursday game, so

0:44:56.239 --> 0:44:58.480
<v Speaker 1>I am just looking it up. I will say that

0:44:58.600 --> 0:45:00.879
<v Speaker 1>on our prop at Chichi's shows you what the best

0:45:00.920 --> 0:45:03.760
<v Speaker 1>available book is for these prop and actually at FANDLE

0:45:03.800 --> 0:45:05.120
<v Speaker 1>it's fifty five and a half, so you can get

0:45:05.160 --> 0:45:07.759
<v Speaker 1>a little bit extra even on that as opposed to

0:45:07.760 --> 0:45:08.600
<v Speaker 1>fifty six and a half.

0:45:08.800 --> 0:45:10.600
<v Speaker 4>But I am right there with you. I am looking

0:45:10.600 --> 0:45:10.920
<v Speaker 4>what I.

0:45:10.840 --> 0:45:15.520
<v Speaker 1>Haven't projected at and I have him projected at sixty

0:45:15.680 --> 0:45:18.839
<v Speaker 1>three point two receiving yards PAT. So there you go,

0:45:18.920 --> 0:45:21.960
<v Speaker 1>we are there with the over very good. And again

0:45:22.040 --> 0:45:26.279
<v Speaker 1>I've mentioned this, but PAT is basically probably the most

0:45:26.280 --> 0:45:29.120
<v Speaker 1>accurate Fantasy rancor for like a decade. So you have

0:45:29.160 --> 0:45:32.359
<v Speaker 1>a pretty good bet here on player props. All right,

0:45:32.400 --> 0:45:34.480
<v Speaker 1>any other ones that you're eyeing in this game, PAT

0:45:34.480 --> 0:45:36.479
<v Speaker 1>that you like one way or another on it? Before

0:45:36.480 --> 0:45:37.799
<v Speaker 1>I get a couple, I guess I can go through.

0:45:37.840 --> 0:45:38.200
<v Speaker 4>Go ahead.

0:45:38.440 --> 0:45:40.600
<v Speaker 2>Generally, I'm not a big anytime TD better.

0:45:40.840 --> 0:45:43.920
<v Speaker 3>I think there you don't get great odds generally, but

0:45:44.000 --> 0:45:46.600
<v Speaker 3>because this is going to be such an unsightly game,

0:45:47.120 --> 0:45:50.279
<v Speaker 3>and because I need action to make it interesting to me, Dan,

0:45:51.160 --> 0:45:53.360
<v Speaker 3>you know, and so I have something to watch instead

0:45:53.320 --> 0:45:56.839
<v Speaker 3>them talking to my family on Thanksgiving. I think I'm

0:45:56.840 --> 0:46:01.920
<v Speaker 3>going to take the anytime TD and Cole combats, Okay, yes,

0:46:02.239 --> 0:46:05.480
<v Speaker 3>and I just you know again, sort of paucity of

0:46:05.520 --> 0:46:10.160
<v Speaker 3>target options for the Bears with Robinson outs and Comet

0:46:10.239 --> 0:46:12.360
<v Speaker 3>is that big body when they get close to the

0:46:12.840 --> 0:46:15.480
<v Speaker 3>pen zone and then one just I mean, this is

0:46:15.680 --> 0:46:19.480
<v Speaker 3>a fade of the Bears offense. I like inn anytime

0:46:19.640 --> 0:46:24.560
<v Speaker 3>Lions defensive touchdown at plus six fifty, Oh wow, I

0:46:24.600 --> 0:46:30.400
<v Speaker 3>could very much see a pick six, a fumble, recovery something,

0:46:30.600 --> 0:46:35.040
<v Speaker 3>So you know, plus six fifty. I'm not confidently predicting

0:46:35.080 --> 0:46:37.960
<v Speaker 3>one by any means, but I kind of like those odds.

0:46:37.960 --> 0:46:41.000
<v Speaker 3>And I'm gonna put a little little something down on that.

0:46:41.680 --> 0:46:42.080
<v Speaker 4>All right.

0:46:42.200 --> 0:46:45.000
<v Speaker 1>I like it, all right, getting a little crazy here,

0:46:45.080 --> 0:46:47.319
<v Speaker 1>I will say that Alex l who's also here again,

0:46:47.600 --> 0:46:48.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, a bunch of people are here with us

0:46:48.719 --> 0:46:52.520
<v Speaker 1>asking about stuff. He did ask earlier on the Cole comet,

0:46:52.560 --> 0:46:54.520
<v Speaker 1>so you like the touchdown, but he did ask on

0:46:54.760 --> 0:46:57.319
<v Speaker 1>the receiving yards, which I'm looking at right now, looks

0:46:57.360 --> 0:47:01.120
<v Speaker 1>like thirty five and a half. I don't really I

0:47:01.120 --> 0:47:04.080
<v Speaker 1>think betting cole Comet receiving yards Pat is something that's

0:47:04.120 --> 0:47:06.359
<v Speaker 1>too scary for me to really go near. Even though

0:47:06.520 --> 0:47:08.960
<v Speaker 1>the projection again on our prop Betchichi does have him

0:47:08.960 --> 0:47:12.960
<v Speaker 1>for forty I believe forty point seventy nine, so it

0:47:13.040 --> 0:47:15.080
<v Speaker 1>would clear that number. But what do you think any

0:47:15.160 --> 0:47:15.600
<v Speaker 1>lean on that.

0:47:16.000 --> 0:47:18.600
<v Speaker 2>I kind of like it, you know, again, I think

0:47:18.640 --> 0:47:22.600
<v Speaker 2>I'm a limited number of target options for the Bears

0:47:22.640 --> 0:47:25.719
<v Speaker 2>against a pretty soft defense, So I do kind of

0:47:25.800 --> 0:47:26.080
<v Speaker 2>like it.

0:47:26.640 --> 0:47:28.000
<v Speaker 4>Okay, so I do.

0:47:28.120 --> 0:47:30.640
<v Speaker 1>So I do want to ask about the running backs, Pat,

0:47:30.680 --> 0:47:32.799
<v Speaker 1>because I do think that running backs are sort of

0:47:32.800 --> 0:47:35.040
<v Speaker 1>where it's at. The line keeps moving up, by the way,

0:47:35.080 --> 0:47:36.920
<v Speaker 1>and the one thing with player prop lines, Pat, is

0:47:36.920 --> 0:47:39.279
<v Speaker 1>they move quickly. I mean, at least as far as

0:47:39.320 --> 0:47:40.480
<v Speaker 1>what I can see right. There are a lot of

0:47:40.480 --> 0:47:42.000
<v Speaker 1>times I like the line. I look and it's like

0:47:42.080 --> 0:47:44.600
<v Speaker 1>four or five yards different the next morning when I look.

0:47:44.920 --> 0:47:48.120
<v Speaker 1>Montgomery has a huge line right now, Pat. Now, of

0:47:48.200 --> 0:47:51.879
<v Speaker 1>course he torched the Lions in their first game sort

0:47:51.880 --> 0:47:55.239
<v Speaker 1>of early on, but it's eighty and a half is

0:47:55.360 --> 0:47:58.840
<v Speaker 1>the total that's like, I would love to find a

0:47:58.840 --> 0:48:02.120
<v Speaker 1>way to take the over on a daved Montgomery rushing

0:48:02.160 --> 0:48:05.480
<v Speaker 1>yards prop. But that line is I don't want to

0:48:05.520 --> 0:48:07.240
<v Speaker 1>go under it because I do think there's a scenario

0:48:07.239 --> 0:48:09.680
<v Speaker 1>where they just run all day. But it's I gotta

0:48:09.680 --> 0:48:11.080
<v Speaker 1>stay away from that one. What do you think?

0:48:12.200 --> 0:48:14.360
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean the one thing that gives me pauseive

0:48:14.360 --> 0:48:16.920
<v Speaker 3>like I thought that was looking like an under two

0:48:17.760 --> 0:48:21.680
<v Speaker 3>is that the Lions have been a massive run funnel defense.

0:48:21.760 --> 0:48:25.480
<v Speaker 3>The opponents are running against them. I'm basically fifty percent

0:48:25.520 --> 0:48:29.640
<v Speaker 3>of their offensive snaps. So you know, unpresumably that the Bears,

0:48:29.680 --> 0:48:33.000
<v Speaker 3>with Andy Dalton that quarterback, have incentive to be run

0:48:33.040 --> 0:48:37.719
<v Speaker 3>heavy themselves. Plus, now that Montgomery's been back for a

0:48:37.719 --> 0:48:39.440
<v Speaker 3>little bit, I think they might feel a little bit

0:48:39.480 --> 0:48:42.280
<v Speaker 3>more comfortable giving him twenty two to twenty three carries

0:48:42.280 --> 0:48:43.000
<v Speaker 3>in this one.

0:48:43.680 --> 0:48:44.720
<v Speaker 2>So it's a stay away.

0:48:44.800 --> 0:48:48.480
<v Speaker 3>But yeah, that is I definitely raised an eyebrow on

0:48:48.480 --> 0:48:50.200
<v Speaker 3>myself when I saw that number.

0:48:50.800 --> 0:48:52.319
<v Speaker 1>I can tell you one that I like here if

0:48:52.320 --> 0:48:53.959
<v Speaker 1>we look on the other side of the running backs,

0:48:54.200 --> 0:48:56.880
<v Speaker 1>I probably don't love it enough to go crazy with

0:48:56.920 --> 0:49:00.000
<v Speaker 1>it or anything like that, But you know, the under

0:49:00.040 --> 0:49:02.400
<v Speaker 1>swift is at sixty five and a half rushing yards.

0:49:02.600 --> 0:49:06.439
<v Speaker 1>The Bears aren't that great necessarily against the run. They've

0:49:06.440 --> 0:49:09.920
<v Speaker 1>got injuries of course with their run stuffers here, and

0:49:10.000 --> 0:49:11.879
<v Speaker 1>we've seen it now with Dan Campbell Patt we talked

0:49:11.880 --> 0:49:13.400
<v Speaker 1>about in the Fantasy Show. I know only got I

0:49:13.400 --> 0:49:16.759
<v Speaker 1>believe fourteen carries in this last game. But obviously they're

0:49:16.800 --> 0:49:18.960
<v Speaker 1>going to commit to the run. Not as much of

0:49:19.000 --> 0:49:22.160
<v Speaker 1>the passing downs work here for DeAndre Swift through the air,

0:49:22.440 --> 0:49:24.120
<v Speaker 1>but a lot on the ground. That's what they want

0:49:24.160 --> 0:49:26.280
<v Speaker 1>to do. In a game where the spread is three,

0:49:26.400 --> 0:49:29.160
<v Speaker 1>you have to assume that Swift is probably going to

0:49:29.200 --> 0:49:31.560
<v Speaker 1>see upwards of fifteen carries.

0:49:31.200 --> 0:49:32.919
<v Speaker 4>Here in this game, so long as he stays healthy.

0:49:32.960 --> 0:49:34.960
<v Speaker 1>Jamal Williams did in factor in that much, so I

0:49:35.040 --> 0:49:36.880
<v Speaker 1>kind of lean the over here at sixty five and

0:49:36.920 --> 0:49:38.160
<v Speaker 1>a half for his rushing yards.

0:49:38.160 --> 0:49:38.839
<v Speaker 4>What do you think of that?

0:49:39.000 --> 0:49:40.560
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, you may have talked me into that. And we

0:49:40.640 --> 0:49:44.480
<v Speaker 3>have seen this abrupt shift from sort of the Alvin

0:49:44.520 --> 0:49:48.440
<v Speaker 3>Kamara type usage. Well, actually the shift has kind of

0:49:48.480 --> 0:49:52.680
<v Speaker 3>mirrored the Alvin Kamara usage from last year, where it was,

0:49:52.719 --> 0:49:55.440
<v Speaker 3>you know, doing significant damage as a pass catcher and

0:49:55.480 --> 0:49:58.759
<v Speaker 3>sort of limited to maybe twelve to fifteen carries a

0:49:58.800 --> 0:50:01.759
<v Speaker 3>game to the Kamara of early this year where he

0:50:01.840 --> 0:50:05.200
<v Speaker 3>was just getting these massive twenty twenty five carry games

0:50:05.239 --> 0:50:08.560
<v Speaker 3>and not so much usage in the passing game. That's

0:50:08.560 --> 0:50:12.360
<v Speaker 3>how things have moved with Swift too. And you know

0:50:12.440 --> 0:50:14.879
<v Speaker 3>that that Steelers game where he had what thirty three

0:50:15.000 --> 0:50:20.560
<v Speaker 3>carries yep, last week over over twenty the way things

0:50:20.600 --> 0:50:23.719
<v Speaker 3>have been trending. I do think the over there is

0:50:23.960 --> 0:50:25.000
<v Speaker 3>a pretty good looking play.

0:50:25.480 --> 0:50:27.319
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it does seem pretty clear when the game

0:50:27.400 --> 0:50:29.600
<v Speaker 1>is close, Pat, they're gonna try to lean into the run,

0:50:29.640 --> 0:50:32.560
<v Speaker 1>as they probably should because they've got absolutely nothing going

0:50:32.600 --> 0:50:34.719
<v Speaker 1>on in the passing game. So yeah, that's one that

0:50:34.760 --> 0:50:36.759
<v Speaker 1>I was really eyeing the over sixty five and a

0:50:36.800 --> 0:50:39.319
<v Speaker 1>half for DeAndre Swift. All right, let's get to the

0:50:40.120 --> 0:50:43.400
<v Speaker 1>Raiders visiting Dallas. Any props that you were eyeing in

0:50:43.440 --> 0:50:44.040
<v Speaker 1>this one?

0:50:44.520 --> 0:50:47.959
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, just one, and it's a sort of a strange one.

0:50:48.239 --> 0:50:51.680
<v Speaker 3>But I sort of like Josh Jacobs over twenty and

0:50:51.680 --> 0:50:53.840
<v Speaker 3>a half receiving yards.

0:50:54.280 --> 0:50:57.160
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean for recent recent games, Pat, I mean

0:50:57.320 --> 0:50:59.320
<v Speaker 1>recent games have sort of you know, he's been heavily

0:50:59.360 --> 0:50:59.920
<v Speaker 1>involved in the.

0:51:00.800 --> 0:51:06.759
<v Speaker 3>He has his last five games. The receiving yardage twenty nine,

0:51:07.480 --> 0:51:11.719
<v Speaker 3>thirty nine, nineteen, twenty and twenty four, so he's beat

0:51:11.760 --> 0:51:14.560
<v Speaker 3>it three out of five games and the two misses

0:51:15.000 --> 0:51:17.400
<v Speaker 3>were by one and a half and half a point.

0:51:18.520 --> 0:51:21.400
<v Speaker 3>You know, know, Henry Ruggs, They've got to go somewhere

0:51:21.480 --> 0:51:25.600
<v Speaker 3>with the ball here, and maybe more important, Jalen Richard

0:51:25.760 --> 0:51:29.920
<v Speaker 3>was a healthy scratch last week. That might be one

0:51:29.920 --> 0:51:32.319
<v Speaker 3>of those where I wait to bet this until I

0:51:32.360 --> 0:51:36.600
<v Speaker 3>see the inactives and see whether Jalen Richard is active.

0:51:36.680 --> 0:51:42.400
<v Speaker 3>But they have made more of a concerted effort post Gruden.

0:51:42.760 --> 0:51:46.120
<v Speaker 3>It seems like to get Jacob's back involved in the

0:51:46.480 --> 0:51:48.600
<v Speaker 3>passing game, and we know he has the skill set

0:51:48.600 --> 0:51:51.239
<v Speaker 3>to do it right. And that's been kind of dismaying

0:51:51.320 --> 0:51:54.719
<v Speaker 3>for these Josh Jacobs investors in fantasy that he's just

0:51:54.800 --> 0:51:59.080
<v Speaker 3>been this between the tackle sledgehammer and has not been

0:51:59.120 --> 0:52:02.400
<v Speaker 3>allowed to show off the versatility we know he has.

0:52:02.600 --> 0:52:06.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean, it does seem like, you know, the

0:52:06.000 --> 0:52:08.719
<v Speaker 1>defensive philosophy right now is take away Darren Waller and

0:52:08.800 --> 0:52:10.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, if you got to go underneath, do it.

0:52:10.800 --> 0:52:13.920
<v Speaker 1>But they'll let that happen. Yeah, you know what, Pat,

0:52:13.280 --> 0:52:16.279
<v Speaker 1>I didn't even think about it. I didn't even think

0:52:16.280 --> 0:52:18.160
<v Speaker 1>about it, and I think that that's a good one.

0:52:18.360 --> 0:52:19.239
<v Speaker 1>Talk me into it.

0:52:19.280 --> 0:52:21.160
<v Speaker 4>I love it. Okay, that is a good one.

0:52:21.239 --> 0:52:22.680
<v Speaker 1>By the way, I will say, just if you're here

0:52:22.760 --> 0:52:24.319
<v Speaker 1>and you ask a question, I'm going to put it up.

0:52:24.400 --> 0:52:25.920
<v Speaker 1>This is a big one, Pat, for the last game

0:52:25.960 --> 0:52:28.880
<v Speaker 1>that we missed. Michael Fuller wants to know whether we

0:52:29.040 --> 0:52:31.879
<v Speaker 1>like plus money Kiro Santos over one and a half

0:52:31.960 --> 0:52:35.040
<v Speaker 1>field goals undraftings. Look, you get plus money, I'm okay

0:52:35.080 --> 0:52:38.120
<v Speaker 1>with it. You're indoors, you know it's fine with me.

0:52:38.520 --> 0:52:40.719
<v Speaker 1>You really really gotta love betting props if you are

0:52:40.719 --> 0:52:44.680
<v Speaker 1>going in here and betting over unders on field goals made.

0:52:44.800 --> 0:52:46.160
<v Speaker 4>But any thoughts on.

0:52:46.200 --> 0:52:48.279
<v Speaker 2>That Pat Michael might have.

0:52:48.560 --> 0:52:50.600
<v Speaker 3>He might be onto something here, because I mean, are

0:52:50.840 --> 0:52:54.200
<v Speaker 3>we going to bet on Andy Dalton the convert touchdowns

0:52:54.239 --> 0:52:57.600
<v Speaker 3>when they get it into the red zone? Like tending

0:52:57.600 --> 0:53:00.640
<v Speaker 3>to fade Andy Dalton in those situations? Oh yeah, Plus

0:53:00.680 --> 0:53:03.680
<v Speaker 3>we know, uh, the weather's not going to be a factor.

0:53:04.600 --> 0:53:06.360
<v Speaker 3>I'm kind of with my he might have talked me

0:53:06.400 --> 0:53:06.960
<v Speaker 3>into that one.

0:53:07.120 --> 0:53:07.919
<v Speaker 2>I like that one.

0:53:08.000 --> 0:53:10.640
<v Speaker 1>Actually, I hadn't thought about it whatsoever, Michael. If I'm

0:53:10.640 --> 0:53:14.440
<v Speaker 1>being honest, I did not consider kicker props, but yeah,

0:53:14.760 --> 0:53:17.160
<v Speaker 1>you know what and on DraftKings, I'm gonna I'm gonna

0:53:17.160 --> 0:53:19.000
<v Speaker 1>trail you with that, Michael, So make sure to hit

0:53:19.080 --> 0:53:21.040
<v Speaker 1>us up on Twitter if we hit that one, because

0:53:21.040 --> 0:53:22.680
<v Speaker 1>I do like it. You're write in a controlled environment.

0:53:22.840 --> 0:53:26.160
<v Speaker 1>And yeah, receiving arts for Jacob's on Fando, it's nineteen

0:53:26.200 --> 0:53:27.680
<v Speaker 1>and a half, Thatt, What is that the line that

0:53:27.719 --> 0:53:30.440
<v Speaker 1>you saw as well? Or do you have a worst line?

0:53:31.200 --> 0:53:34.760
<v Speaker 2>I don't. I don't have it in front of me, Dan, Sorry, okay.

0:53:34.480 --> 0:53:36.120
<v Speaker 1>No, no, no, whatever your line was, That's why I

0:53:36.120 --> 0:53:37.600
<v Speaker 1>didn't know what you took the over at Oh.

0:53:37.520 --> 0:53:38.680
<v Speaker 2>Wait, wait wait, I'm sorry.

0:53:38.760 --> 0:53:40.120
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, the Jacob's line.

0:53:40.280 --> 0:53:43.160
<v Speaker 2>Oh, the Jacobs line twenty and a half. Yeah, so sorry,

0:53:43.200 --> 0:53:45.759
<v Speaker 2>I thought you were talking about the Santos line. My bad, bad.

0:53:45.840 --> 0:53:47.759
<v Speaker 1>Now, if I thought you had the Santos line at

0:53:47.800 --> 0:53:50.600
<v Speaker 1>your disposal, Pat, you would be the regular co host

0:53:50.640 --> 0:53:53.319
<v Speaker 1>of this podcast, because I don't know too many people

0:53:53.320 --> 0:53:53.680
<v Speaker 1>who have it.

0:53:53.800 --> 0:53:54.799
<v Speaker 4>I was not expecting that.

0:53:55.200 --> 0:53:57.200
<v Speaker 1>No, I meant the Josh Jacobs line again, because what

0:53:57.360 --> 0:53:59.160
<v Speaker 1>on the prop beat cheet Chi, what shows you is

0:53:59.200 --> 0:54:01.680
<v Speaker 1>the best of alb a line in the market per

0:54:01.719 --> 0:54:03.960
<v Speaker 1>book so at Fandals actually nineteen and a half. So

0:54:04.000 --> 0:54:06.200
<v Speaker 1>that's even better if you can bet on fandle even

0:54:06.200 --> 0:54:08.200
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more of an edge anything else.

0:54:08.440 --> 0:54:10.960
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, let me add one more, Dan, and I know

0:54:11.080 --> 0:54:14.840
<v Speaker 3>that our the betting sheet loves this one. Is the

0:54:15.239 --> 0:54:17.880
<v Speaker 3>Derek Carr over to sixty eight and a half. It

0:54:17.960 --> 0:54:20.640
<v Speaker 3>just seems kind of low. I mean, he's six and

0:54:20.680 --> 0:54:24.799
<v Speaker 3>four against that number this year. Maybe it's because he's

0:54:24.880 --> 0:54:28.080
<v Speaker 3>zero and two on his last two. The weird thing is, wait,

0:54:28.120 --> 0:54:30.400
<v Speaker 3>what did I say? I said two hundred and sixty

0:54:30.400 --> 0:54:32.480
<v Speaker 3>eight and a half. That's what it was at yesterday

0:54:32.520 --> 0:54:35.400
<v Speaker 3>on DraftKings. Now it's down to two sixty four and

0:54:35.480 --> 0:54:38.080
<v Speaker 3>a half. It's four it's two sixty three and a

0:54:38.080 --> 0:54:38.800
<v Speaker 3>half on Fantoms.

0:54:38.800 --> 0:54:41.560
<v Speaker 2>Oh my god, So it's moved down five yards since.

0:54:41.560 --> 0:54:42.480
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that works.

0:54:42.520 --> 0:54:44.240
<v Speaker 2>And again Pat, that's not unusual.

0:54:44.560 --> 0:54:46.719
<v Speaker 1>I mean you and I bet props a lot, and

0:54:46.920 --> 0:54:48.919
<v Speaker 1>I take a pretty close look at them now when

0:54:48.920 --> 0:54:50.920
<v Speaker 1>I get into it, because I have to recommend them always.

0:54:50.920 --> 0:54:54.000
<v Speaker 1>On Sunday, I will recommend things on Saturday night. Pat,

0:54:54.080 --> 0:54:55.960
<v Speaker 1>on Saturday night, I will make my list for our

0:54:55.960 --> 0:54:59.080
<v Speaker 1>Sunday morning livestream, and it will move four yards for

0:54:59.160 --> 0:55:02.879
<v Speaker 1>running backs six yards for passing yards like they move

0:55:02.960 --> 0:55:03.960
<v Speaker 1>pretty significant, right.

0:55:04.080 --> 0:55:06.120
<v Speaker 2>It doesn't take a lot to move these lines.

0:55:05.920 --> 0:55:07.880
<v Speaker 1>Not at all, not at all, So you are right.

0:55:07.920 --> 0:55:09.879
<v Speaker 1>So yeah, our propat chi Chie, that is the one

0:55:09.880 --> 0:55:12.239
<v Speaker 1>that they like a lot. They haven't projected for two

0:55:12.320 --> 0:55:14.000
<v Speaker 1>ninety four, so you agree with this. Let me pull

0:55:14.040 --> 0:55:16.279
<v Speaker 1>up my so because I you know, Pat, I don't know, man,

0:55:16.280 --> 0:55:19.280
<v Speaker 1>the Raiders often scares me man with the passing offense

0:55:19.320 --> 0:55:19.680
<v Speaker 1>a little bit.

0:55:19.760 --> 0:55:21.399
<v Speaker 4>Let me look at my projection. But tell me why

0:55:21.400 --> 0:55:22.120
<v Speaker 4>you like that one.

0:55:22.600 --> 0:55:24.640
<v Speaker 3>Uh well, it's good just because it's a low bar

0:55:25.080 --> 0:55:27.680
<v Speaker 3>for a guy who I mean, Car is what top.

0:55:28.000 --> 0:55:30.399
<v Speaker 3>I know he's top five and in passing yards per

0:55:30.440 --> 0:55:32.640
<v Speaker 3>game at one point I think he was number two.

0:55:33.200 --> 0:55:35.120
<v Speaker 3>I don't know if he's still there after two kind

0:55:35.120 --> 0:55:39.239
<v Speaker 3>of slowish games, but yeah, I mean we know they're

0:55:39.239 --> 0:55:42.839
<v Speaker 3>not gonna they like they don't have the running game

0:55:42.960 --> 0:55:45.840
<v Speaker 3>to just lean on the run the entire game against

0:55:45.880 --> 0:55:46.640
<v Speaker 3>the Cowboys, like.

0:55:46.600 --> 0:55:48.680
<v Speaker 2>They've they've got to take to the air here.

0:55:49.080 --> 0:55:52.360
<v Speaker 3>And you know, even though they don't have that vertical

0:55:52.400 --> 0:55:56.000
<v Speaker 3>threat with Rugs no longer in the lineup, like, I.

0:55:56.000 --> 0:56:00.200
<v Speaker 2>Still think Car can get there. Yes, yeah, And plus.

0:56:01.560 --> 0:56:05.319
<v Speaker 3>I mean we talked about the Raiders being you know,

0:56:06.440 --> 0:56:10.680
<v Speaker 3>deserved underdogs in this game. Yeah, so we are guessing

0:56:10.680 --> 0:56:13.320
<v Speaker 3>that it's probably going to be a past friendly game script.

0:56:13.880 --> 0:56:16.600
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I agree, and I do think that the fact

0:56:16.600 --> 0:56:20.880
<v Speaker 1>that they're you know, I want to take a a

0:56:21.000 --> 0:56:23.600
<v Speaker 1>rushing prop over for the Cowboys for one of them,

0:56:23.640 --> 0:56:25.880
<v Speaker 1>but it's Zeke's so banged. I mean, he's Roger sixty

0:56:25.920 --> 0:56:28.839
<v Speaker 1>and a half. Pat, I feel like that's an over.

0:56:29.000 --> 0:56:31.719
<v Speaker 1>But I don't feel good about his health, Like I

0:56:31.760 --> 0:56:34.040
<v Speaker 1>feel like he's always constantly leaving. He obviously had a

0:56:34.040 --> 0:56:35.719
<v Speaker 1>little bit of an ankle thing last time, and he

0:56:35.719 --> 0:56:38.200
<v Speaker 1>came in, so I could see Tony Poller going over

0:56:38.239 --> 0:56:39.239
<v Speaker 1>his thirty nine and a half.

0:56:39.280 --> 0:56:41.480
<v Speaker 4>But I just I don't feel that comfortable with it overall.

0:56:41.520 --> 0:56:47.040
<v Speaker 3>Do you No, Yeah, it's as you mentioned, It does

0:56:47.120 --> 0:56:49.520
<v Speaker 3>feel like we should be taking some sort of over

0:56:49.640 --> 0:56:53.600
<v Speaker 3>on the Cowboys rushing props and it just but like

0:56:53.640 --> 0:56:56.120
<v Speaker 3>I can't do it on Zeke knowing who's banged up.

0:56:56.400 --> 0:56:58.600
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I agree, all right, any other one from this game?

0:56:58.680 --> 0:56:59.759
<v Speaker 1>You want to move to the final one?

0:57:00.040 --> 0:57:01.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, let's go to the final one.

0:57:01.719 --> 0:57:04.120
<v Speaker 4>Bills at the Saints. What do you like here? Pat?

0:57:05.480 --> 0:57:09.440
<v Speaker 3>I like that Taysom Hill anytime touchdown then at plus

0:57:09.560 --> 0:57:15.000
<v Speaker 3>five hundred, and especially with the uncertain injury status of

0:57:15.480 --> 0:57:19.360
<v Speaker 3>Camara and Ingram, like just one way for them to

0:57:19.720 --> 0:57:25.040
<v Speaker 3>punch the ball in perhaps, And really that's about it.

0:57:25.280 --> 0:57:26.959
<v Speaker 3>I'm not loving the prompts in this game.

0:57:27.400 --> 0:57:30.840
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's a great one. Actually, I really really like

0:57:30.880 --> 0:57:33.080
<v Speaker 1>that one. I'm the one that I'm eyeing a little bit.

0:57:33.120 --> 0:57:34.800
<v Speaker 1>And again our prep at Chichi does not list this

0:57:34.880 --> 0:57:37.120
<v Speaker 1>is great. It basically has it right on projections. I

0:57:37.280 --> 0:57:41.640
<v Speaker 1>lean over on Josh Allen rushing yards and part of

0:57:41.640 --> 0:57:43.120
<v Speaker 1>it is it's thirty two and a half for him.

0:57:43.360 --> 0:57:44.760
<v Speaker 1>And part of the reason why I do pat is

0:57:44.760 --> 0:57:46.240
<v Speaker 1>because you know, you hear all this coming out of

0:57:46.240 --> 0:57:49.160
<v Speaker 1>Buffalo and they're like, you know what, we've got to

0:57:49.200 --> 0:57:50.800
<v Speaker 1>take care of it, Like we don't. We don't have

0:57:50.840 --> 0:57:52.520
<v Speaker 1>to go crazy, we won't have to take deep shots

0:57:52.520 --> 0:57:55.320
<v Speaker 1>like we have to avoid turnovers, especially against the Saints

0:57:55.360 --> 0:57:56.680
<v Speaker 1>that don't have an explosive offense.

0:57:56.880 --> 0:57:58.760
<v Speaker 4>To me, that strikes me is when Alan.

0:57:58.600 --> 0:58:01.760
<v Speaker 1>Feels like he is in or he feels like it's

0:58:01.760 --> 0:58:03.400
<v Speaker 1>a tight window, He's not going to take the chance

0:58:03.400 --> 0:58:03.919
<v Speaker 1>in this game.

0:58:04.040 --> 0:58:05.800
<v Speaker 4>He's just going to take off and run. We just

0:58:05.800 --> 0:58:06.720
<v Speaker 4>saw Jalen.

0:58:06.480 --> 0:58:10.520
<v Speaker 1>Hurts absolutely destroy the Saints right from a rushing perspective.

0:58:10.560 --> 0:58:12.680
<v Speaker 1>So again, it's not one that our Propat chi Chie

0:58:13.160 --> 0:58:13.919
<v Speaker 1>necessarily likes.

0:58:13.920 --> 0:58:14.960
<v Speaker 4>It doesn't have an edge.

0:58:15.000 --> 0:58:18.439
<v Speaker 1>It has over by point zero six rushing yards, which

0:58:18.480 --> 0:58:21.080
<v Speaker 1>is fine, but I lean that way. Pat Taysom Mill

0:58:21.160 --> 0:58:23.400
<v Speaker 1>scoring touch actually is a great call, and it's now

0:58:23.440 --> 0:58:25.480
<v Speaker 1>my favorite prop of that game. But I do lean

0:58:25.480 --> 0:58:27.800
<v Speaker 1>if anything, Josh Allen over rushing yards thirty two and

0:58:27.840 --> 0:58:28.240
<v Speaker 1>a half.

0:58:28.720 --> 0:58:32.000
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that makes sense to me, especially after the Jalen

0:58:32.080 --> 0:58:33.919
<v Speaker 3>Hurts blow up last week.

0:58:34.200 --> 0:58:36.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think just everything sort of fits for it.

0:58:36.240 --> 0:58:39.200
<v Speaker 1>All right, that's it for our Best Bets podcast. Pat,

0:58:39.240 --> 0:58:42.240
<v Speaker 1>your dog was great, Thank him for uh for keeping that.

0:58:42.280 --> 0:58:44.640
<v Speaker 1>Thank you for your job. THEO, good job, THEO. I

0:58:44.680 --> 0:58:46.360
<v Speaker 1>know it's a very busy time for you. Thank you

0:58:46.440 --> 0:58:49.040
<v Speaker 1>everybody to join us here today live again on our

0:58:49.040 --> 0:58:52.400
<v Speaker 1>YouTube channel. Don't forget to subscribe to YouTube dot com

0:58:52.440 --> 0:58:55.240
<v Speaker 1>slash Betting Pros, make sure you don't miss our content,

0:58:55.240 --> 0:58:56.440
<v Speaker 1>and then go by the way to Betting Pros dot

0:58:56.440 --> 0:58:58.480
<v Speaker 1>com slash helmet where you can win a sign Saque

0:58:58.560 --> 0:59:01.400
<v Speaker 1>Barkley helmet just for subscribing just to recap our best

0:59:01.400 --> 0:59:03.600
<v Speaker 1>bets in addition to the props pat you like the

0:59:03.640 --> 0:59:06.360
<v Speaker 1>Lions getting three from the Bears, the Raiders and the

0:59:06.400 --> 0:59:09.520
<v Speaker 1>Cowboys under fifty and a half, and the Rams getting

0:59:09.520 --> 0:59:12.000
<v Speaker 1>one from the Packers. I like the Steelers getting four

0:59:12.000 --> 0:59:14.840
<v Speaker 1>and a half from the Bengals in Cincinnati, the Texans

0:59:14.880 --> 0:59:17.040
<v Speaker 1>laying two and a half to the Jets and the Titans,

0:59:17.080 --> 0:59:18.840
<v Speaker 1>and the Patriots under forty four.

0:59:19.040 --> 0:59:21.280
<v Speaker 4>I hope everybody has a wonderful Thanksgiving.

0:59:21.360 --> 0:59:24.360
<v Speaker 1>Enjoy the food, enjoy the family, enjoy the football, Enjoy

0:59:24.400 --> 0:59:27.120
<v Speaker 1>your Sunday as well. We'll be back as always next week,

0:59:27.480 --> 0:59:30.120
<v Speaker 1>taking an early look at the Week thirteen NFL lines.

0:59:30.160 --> 0:59:32.360
<v Speaker 1>As we just fly through the season, I will talk

0:59:32.400 --> 0:59:32.720
<v Speaker 1>to you though,