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Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought

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Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I am your host, Dan Harris.

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Speaker 1: That's Pat fitz Morris. You can find me on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at Dan Harris Ada. You can find Pat on Twitter

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Speaker 1: at fits underscore FF. It is time to talk about

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Speaker 1: our best bets for Week twelve of the NFL season.

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Speaker 1: We are live streaming this right now on our YouTube

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Speaker 1: channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.

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Speaker 2: Pat.

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Speaker 1: It's almost Thanksgiving? Are you Are you ready for the

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Speaker 1: big holiday or what?

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Speaker 2: I am?

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Speaker 1: Dan?

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Speaker 3: I'm always ready for Thanksgiving? And what an underrated week

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Speaker 3: of sports Thanksgiving Week is. I mean, you start the

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Speaker 3: early part of the week with some really interesting, fun

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Speaker 3: college basketball tournaments, you get the NFL Triple on Thursday,

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Speaker 3: you get great college football rivalries on Saturday, and then

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Speaker 3: more NFL on Sunday. So, like I think, it's just

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Speaker 3: a dream sports week. Loving every minute of it right now.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well we need you know, the NFL Thursday on

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Speaker 1: this one isn't exactly lighting you know, the room on

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Speaker 1: fire with this. The games are not that especially the

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Speaker 1: first one. I mean, you know, the Bears and the lines.

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Speaker 4: Just not what we want.

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Speaker 1: But I understand you may be making some picks here

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Speaker 1: on some of our Thursday games, which is great, and we're.

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Speaker 4: Going to do some player props.

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Speaker 1: Part of the reason we can't do player props obviously

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Speaker 1: on this show is because for the most part, they're

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Speaker 1: not out at the time we do it. But right

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Speaker 1: now we are going to be able to do it

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Speaker 1: because there are enough props out now because it's Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 1: That's why we are live streaming this again on our

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel. So if you're in the I see some

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Speaker 1: people chatting already, people waiting for the garage door to open,

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Speaker 1: which is great. It will be opening, I absolutely promise you.

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Speaker 1: My wife has an appointment in about twenty minutes, so

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Speaker 1: it will get nobody worry about that. But in the meantime,

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Speaker 1: let's go through both our latest offer from our sponsor

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Speaker 1: bet MGM. We'll recap last week and then we'll do

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Speaker 1: the usual show giving our three best bets for the

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Speaker 1: weekend or in this case, some on Thanksgiving if either

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Speaker 1: one of us has any picks for that, and then

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Speaker 1: we'll do some player props here for Thanksgiving. And again

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Speaker 1: Pat and I, as in addition to being betting guys,

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Speaker 1: are also both fantasy guys and not to our own horns,

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Speaker 1: but we're fairly accurate with our fantasy rankings over the

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Speaker 1: last several years, and part of that leads into player props.

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Speaker 1: So we'll get there and again, if you have questions

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Speaker 1: and you're here joining us, and I see that somebody

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Speaker 1: asking about cole Comet receiving yards prop, we'll talk about

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Speaker 1: those as we get there and over under our garage

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Speaker 1: door taking over on one and a half. That's a

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Speaker 1: good bet. That's your best prop bet obviously of the weekend.

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Speaker 1: All right, let me get into our latest offer here

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Speaker 1: available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona,

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Speaker 1: and Wyoming. All right, let's quickly recap last week our

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Speaker 1: guest Mike Randall, Pat and I we were just talking

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Speaker 1: about how much we love Mike and how great he

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Speaker 1: is at the college basketball stuff. But he did go

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Speaker 1: just one and two last week. He did hit on

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Speaker 1: the Vikings getting two and a half in that matchup

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Speaker 1: against the Packers, but he missed on the Seahawks getting three.

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Speaker 1: The Seahawks continue to be.

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Speaker 4: Just our kryptonite on this podcast.

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Speaker 1: And he also had Carolina laying three and a half

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Speaker 1: and they of course lost outright, I went to and one.

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Speaker 1: I hit on the Chiefs laying two and a half

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Speaker 1: to the Cowboys, was our betting pros pick out the

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Speaker 1: day for Sunday, and the Texans getting ten from the Titans.

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Speaker 1: I did miss on the Raiders getting one from the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: That puts me in eighteen and fifteen on the week

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Speaker 1: on the.

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Speaker 4: Year, pardon me not on the week that would be

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Speaker 4: a big week for me. All right.

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Speaker 1: I remember we've consentives lines o our Bettingpros dot com.

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Speaker 1: I will mention the different books that are available. They

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Speaker 1: are moving these lines, that including the Thanksgiving lines when

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Speaker 1: I looked at them just yesterday before preparing for this show.

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Speaker 2: Again.

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Speaker 1: You can make picks and their Betting Pros app which

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Speaker 1: you should download. You can make your own picks against

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Speaker 1: the spread. You can see where you stand on a

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Speaker 1: leader board and all of that. Bat you were the

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Speaker 1: guests on the show, I give you the honor of

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Speaker 1: making your first pick here. What's your you know, what

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Speaker 1: do you want to say your best bet at the weekend?

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Speaker 1: However you want and put it out there. But what's

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Speaker 1: your number one pick?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: So let's start with that aforementioned Bear's Lions game. Dan,

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Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, what a great matchup you've got to

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Speaker 3: bet at pretty much because you're not watching it for

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Speaker 3: the outstanding football.

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Speaker 4: True.

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Speaker 3: Indeed, so I really like the Lions getting three points

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Speaker 3: at home here for one, I just have a policy.

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Speaker 3: I would never bet against the Lions on a Thanksgiving

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Speaker 3: Day game at home. I'm either taking the points they're

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Speaker 3: inevitably getting or I'm just laying off, but this time

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Speaker 3: I think I want those points. And it kind of

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Speaker 3: comes down to well, number one, I don't think the

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Speaker 3: Lions are that much worse than the Bears this year.

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Speaker 2: And number two, I mean, I think it's the coaching situations.

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Speaker 3: You've got the volatility of the Matt and Age situation

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Speaker 3: in Chicago with him being a lame duck, a lame

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Speaker 3: turkey if you will, on Thanksgiving, and you know, in Detroit,

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Speaker 3: I think they have some a spree decorps with you know,

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Speaker 3: with Campbell, Like everyone loves Dan Campbell, so like, I

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Speaker 3: think they're going to be fired up to try to

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Speaker 3: go out and get their first win of the season

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Speaker 3: on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. And you know, I like

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Speaker 3: getting a few points here. Yeah, So I'm taking Detroit

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Speaker 3: in the three. That's one of my bets for this week.

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Speaker 1: Does are you assuming with the bet or does it

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Speaker 1: matter to you who starts a quarterback here for the Lions,

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Speaker 1: Because of course, now there's there's some optimism, at least

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Speaker 1: expressed by Dan Campbell, that Jarred Goff is going to

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Speaker 1: be able to go in this game and it's not

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Speaker 1: going to be Timboil doesn't.

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Speaker 4: Matter to you at all.

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Speaker 2: No, and on either side it wouldn't.

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Speaker 3: I mean to me, like Dalton versus Fields, Boil versus

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Speaker 3: GoF neither one moves the needle one.

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Speaker 2: Way or the other in this one, I don't think.

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Speaker 1: All right, well, it does sound like it is going

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Speaker 1: to be Dalton. I think Matt Naxan came out. Of course,

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Speaker 1: you referenced it. There are reports that nag is going

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Speaker 1: to be fired immediately after the game, which he denies

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Speaker 1: that he was not.

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Speaker 4: Informed that he was going to be fired. But we'll see.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a tough one for me. Pat there.

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Speaker 1: It was three and a half for a while and

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Speaker 1: when it opened at three and a half. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if the movement to three is because money coming

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Speaker 1: in here on the Lions or because of the fact

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Speaker 1: that Jared Goff could start and people think that that's

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Speaker 1: better for the Lions. Either way, I don't really have

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Speaker 1: a great feel for it. Necessarily, I'll be involved in

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Speaker 1: this game, probably from a props per perspective, which again

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about it a little bit later here. But

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Speaker 1: I like the boldness of making one of your best

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Speaker 1: bets not only on the Lions, but also on Thanksgiving,

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Speaker 1: So we're gonna know how your week's going right off

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Speaker 1: the bat. Pat like, no fear whatsoever. You don't want

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Speaker 1: to punt it, tell punt till Monday night. That's my philosophy,

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Speaker 1: Like let's wait until the week's alve was suffer.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I'm not.

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Speaker 1: I'll just being honest. I don't have a good feel

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Speaker 1: for it, Like I'm not betting it one way or another.

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Speaker 1: I'd love to see the Lions win. I'd love to

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Speaker 1: see them cover, but you know, I can't back them, man,

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Speaker 1: I can't back them even with the do you last question?

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Speaker 4: I guess do you think?

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Speaker 1: Because we have seen coaching sort of stuff, you know,

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Speaker 1: as much as he's lost the locker room and everything

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Speaker 1: like that, but we've seen coaching stuff go the other

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Speaker 1: way a little bit, like people in turmoil and then

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Speaker 1: they kind of rally and then they play better.

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Speaker 4: You don't really are.

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Speaker 1: You putting anything into the coaching situation basically in this

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Speaker 1: game for the PA.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean that's that's where a lot of

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Speaker 3: it comes from. I know the Raiders sort of crossed

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Speaker 3: us up with that, Like the more you know, the

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Speaker 3: more turmoil the Raiders have, the better they seem to

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Speaker 3: play is here, at least as far as the coaching goes.

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Speaker 3: So no, I mean, I do think it kind of

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Speaker 3: matters that, you know. For one, like I think the

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Speaker 3: Campbell's the players coach, the players like him. For another,

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Speaker 3: I don't think he's an idiot. He's not a you know,

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Speaker 3: a Wayne Fonce. He's actually a decent head coach.

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Speaker 2: I know, I used to love Wayne, like, and nothing

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Speaker 2: entertained my stepdad as much as like watching Wayne Fonce

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Speaker 2: coach on Thanksgiving Day and make jokes about him.

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Speaker 3: So I do miss Wayne. But yeah, just like it

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Speaker 3: seems like when you're getting these reports about the divided

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Speaker 3: locker room for the Bears and how how some of

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Speaker 3: these players are just like actively stabbing him in the

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Speaker 3: back and telling reporters that they.

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Speaker 2: There's a sizeable player population.

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Speaker 3: In that locker room that wants him gone, like that's

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Speaker 3: not a good thing, and like are they going to

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Speaker 3: go out and play for that guy on a holiday?

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Speaker 3: It just I would not be surprised if the Bears

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Speaker 3: came out pretty flat for this one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I do think that it's a little different

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Speaker 1: than Gruden, which you know, obviously Gruden situation didn't have

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Speaker 1: anything to do with the locker room at that time

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Speaker 1: and him being gone and that first came back that

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Speaker 1: might have been a relief right for them. In this one,

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Speaker 1: you have the reports that the players are actively basically

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Speaker 1: being like, you have lost the locker room. I'm done,

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Speaker 1: and so that is really tough there to go. But

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Speaker 1: it is a stay.

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Speaker 4: Away from me.

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Speaker 1: We'll get some props a couple of them that I

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Speaker 1: might like in that one, but at stay Away, you're

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Speaker 1: a brave man. I love going in on the Lions

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Speaker 1: for one of your best bets. I am going to

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Speaker 1: take it in. I won't say an equally disappointing team,

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Speaker 1: but a team that it's very difficult to get a

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Speaker 1: read on, but I like the spot for them.

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Speaker 4: If you've listened to.

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Speaker 1: This podcast, it is the Steelers on the road in

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati getting four and a half here against the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: Now here's what I'm going to say. I would bet

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Speaker 1: this now if you were listening to this, because I

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Speaker 1: do think from everything I'm reading that the big three

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Speaker 1: defensive players that the Steelers were missing last week. TJ Watt,

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Speaker 1: Mika Fitzpatrick and Joe Hayden.

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Speaker 4: It sounds like they're all going to come back here.

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Speaker 1: And if they do, if they get through practice and

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Speaker 1: they'll come back, this line's going to drop a little bit.

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Speaker 1: So this is for me a prime teaser piece. Pat.

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Speaker 1: I want to bet it last night for the Steelers.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned this on the Monday Show. I want to

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Speaker 1: bet it last night and tease it up. But DraftKings

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Speaker 1: was the lone book sitting out there at four. Every

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Speaker 1: other book was four and a half. Draft Kings sat

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Speaker 1: out there at four. When I woke up this morning,

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Speaker 1: it was at four and a half. So I did it.

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Speaker 1: I teased it up and I messaged you this morning.

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Speaker 1: I said, bad, I need the second teezer piece because

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Speaker 1: I can't necessarily get there. And we did come up

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Speaker 1: with a few. But bet it at four and a

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Speaker 1: half if you like the Steelers like I do. I

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Speaker 1: said last week that I was fading the Bengals Pat

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Speaker 1: against the Raiders. That didn't work out very well for me,

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Speaker 1: as I said, I did lose that bet. But I'm

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Speaker 1: putting that a little bit more on the Raiders than

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Speaker 1: I am on the Bengals. I mean, I can't buy

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Speaker 1: the Bengals, Pat I look at just total DVOA and

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Speaker 1: I know Matt Parl always teases me because I love

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Speaker 1: DVA and I look at it closely and stuff like that.

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Speaker 1: But just it's a good measure of how good a

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Speaker 1: team actually is in my opinion. And Cincinnati's twenty first

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh twenty, it's two pretty evenly matched teams. And you

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Speaker 1: look at the weighted DVOA, Pat, that's more recent game

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Speaker 1: sort of in there, Pittsburgh twenty. It's since he twenty fourth.

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Speaker 1: Again with Pittsburgh now getting healthy on defense, I think

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Speaker 1: it's a different game. I think a divisional game, it's

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Speaker 1: generally pretty close. And again I'm a broken record here, Pat,

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Speaker 1: but the history shows us there are spots to back

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Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin. There are spots to fade Mike Tomlin. This

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Speaker 1: is a back Mike Tomlin spot for two reasons. Garage

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Speaker 1: or number one.

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Speaker 4: There we are.

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Speaker 1: It always comes in. I promise you, I knew she

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Speaker 1: had an employment. Everybody, it's it's really miraculous. Anytime my

264
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Speaker 1: podcasts are livestream, she has a tendency to figure out

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Speaker 1: what it is. Anyway, just go here with the Mike

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Speaker 1: Tomlin led Steelers. Okay, knocks you out of your survivor pool.

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Speaker 1: Every single time they could be a double digit favorite,

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Speaker 1: they are going to lose that game. But he is

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Speaker 1: the best raw rock coach in the game. And even

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Speaker 1: this year they're four and one as underdogs, They're three

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Speaker 1: and one as underdogs by more than three points. And

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Speaker 1: remember Pat, and I don't think we can discount this.

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati went up to Pittsburgh early on in the year

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Speaker 1: and spanked them a little bit, right, I mean, they

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Speaker 1: won twenty four to ten. They were embarrassed by that,

276
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Speaker 1: and since he did some chirpin' afterwards, and you know

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Speaker 1: that Mike Tom was going to remind his guys of

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Speaker 1: that Ben's playing a little better.

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Speaker 4: You know.

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Speaker 1: I was surprised actually how decent he looked in that

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Speaker 1: game coming off COVID. But he's playing a little better.

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Speaker 1: The defense really is what's going to make the difference.

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Speaker 1: It's a fate of the Bengals. It's a divisional game.

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Speaker 1: If anything, I think Cincinnati wins this by three points.

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Speaker 1: But I wouldn't mind taking the money line here on

286
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Speaker 1: these Steelers. So that's where I am. I'm going with

287
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Speaker 1: them getting four and a half points here on the road.

288
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Speaker 1: In Cincinnati.

289
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Speaker 2: Yeah, you're selling me, Dan. I mean you and Randalls

290
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Speaker 2: told me last week.

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Speaker 3: About the setups for Pittsburgh, like take them as a dog,

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Speaker 3: fade them as a heavy favorite. And you know, I

293
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Speaker 3: took your advice last week against the Chargers, and luckily

294
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Speaker 3: the back door was open in that game. Yeah, I mean, hell,

295
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Speaker 3: they almost want it outright at the end. So I'm

296
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Speaker 3: kind of on board with you. Ni make a really

297
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Speaker 3: good point about the Steelers defense getting healthier.

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Speaker 2: TJ. Watt playing obviously would make a difference.

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Speaker 1: Yes, different for sure.

300
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Speaker 3: Yes, And like we have seen, you know, Burrow kind

301
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Speaker 3: of struggle against pressure. I would say at times so far,

302
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Speaker 3: if he is a clean pocket, he's fantastic, but he's

303
00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:19,640
Speaker 3: under a heavy pass rush, like you can disrupt him

304
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Speaker 3: and force him into some mistake. So yeah, and TJ. Watts,

305
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Speaker 3: You're not going to have a clean pocket all day

306
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Speaker 3: if that dude's playing so.

307
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Speaker 1: Right, And again, there are question marks at it because

308
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Speaker 1: you can you know secret the books no more than

309
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Speaker 1: I do. Of course, they get advanced sort of notice,

310
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Speaker 1: so it is up in the air to be careful.

311
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Speaker 1: But everything I'm reading, and again, Pat, I feel like

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Speaker 1: you and I probably at this point because we've been

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Speaker 1: doing this for a while, Like we have minor people

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Speaker 1: that we know and trust who sort of, you know,

315
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Speaker 1: can can lean us in the right direction as to

316
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Speaker 1: what they're thinking necesarily about injuries and things like that.

317
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Speaker 1: And everything I've seen from people who I trust suggest

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Speaker 1: that they think they're going to get.

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Speaker 4: All three of these guys back right now.

320
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Speaker 1: And it's just to me, it's a completely different in

321
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Speaker 1: the game, by the way, both teams have to win.

322
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Speaker 1: But look, whatever is is, you know, the defense is

323
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Speaker 1: fine for Cincy. I think it played a little bit

324
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Speaker 1: over its head early in the year. The offense, man,

325
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Speaker 1: I don't know, like it just it doesn't look cohesive

326
00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:15,720
Speaker 1: right now, like whatever they're doing on offense. And again

327
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Speaker 1: they beat the Raiders pretty handily in this one. But

328
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Speaker 1: again that's more of a fade at the Raiders. But

329
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Speaker 1: I do think I think the Steelers win this game

330
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Speaker 1: out right, really, I honestly do.

331
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Speaker 2: So.

332
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Speaker 1: I'm gonna sprinkle on the money line as you should

333
00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:28,840
Speaker 1: with all sort of you know, short dogs here, but again,

334
00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:31,200
Speaker 1: this is a spot, man, I'm telling you, this is

335
00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:33,600
Speaker 1: a bet that I really like this week bat and

336
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Speaker 1: especially at four and a half, which is why I'm

337
00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:38,000
Speaker 1: doing it. It's in every teaser piece because if they

338
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Speaker 1: lose by more than ten and a half, I have

339
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Speaker 1: to rethink my entire outlook here. I'm the Steelers on

340
00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:44,920
Speaker 1: the Bengals, so I can't see them losing by that much.

341
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Speaker 4: So tease them up.

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Speaker 1: Find another piece, maybe one of our Thanksgiving games, which

343
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Speaker 1: we'll talk about. I think in a second, Pat, you're

344
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Speaker 1: going back to Thanksgiving for pick number two?

345
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Speaker 4: Is that right?

346
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Speaker 2: I am Dan and first as an aside, so my

347
00:14:56,400 --> 00:15:00,000
Speaker 2: dog is very contentedly gnawing on a bone next year

348
00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:03,080
Speaker 2: because my wife is away and she can't be watching him.

349
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Speaker 2: I've got to have him here with me. So if

350
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Speaker 2: people hear that, that's what it is.

351
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Speaker 3: But I don't know if my dog loves this basted

352
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Speaker 3: bone as much as I love the under in the

353
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Speaker 3: Dallas Raiders.

354
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Speaker 2: Game, which is at a last time I checked, I

355
00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:20,200
Speaker 2: think it was I got it fifty one.

356
00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:23,280
Speaker 1: So it's fifty one at some books, but our consensus

357
00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:24,800
Speaker 1: line again at betting pros, that's what we do. We

358
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Speaker 1: have I don't know, twelve fifteen books here that we

359
00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:29,440
Speaker 1: look at everything. It's technically fifty and a half, Pat,

360
00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:32,200
Speaker 1: So if that changes anything, let me know.

361
00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,040
Speaker 3: But it won't change anything, Dan, And I think it

362
00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:37,480
Speaker 3: was actually at fifty one and a half on Draft

363
00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:39,840
Speaker 3: Kings yesterday, if I'm not mistaken. So maybe there are

364
00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:42,360
Speaker 3: some other people who are thinking the same.

365
00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:44,600
Speaker 4: It's fifty and a half at DraftKings.

366
00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:47,760
Speaker 1: I know, Pat, because spoiler alert, it's part of a teaser,

367
00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:48,320
Speaker 1: but go ahead.

368
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Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, So I mean looking at Dallas in their

369
00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:55,440
Speaker 3: last four games, they have been twenty points or less

370
00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:58,160
Speaker 3: in three of the four, the only exception being there

371
00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,920
Speaker 3: forty three to three pasting of the Falcons. The Raiders

372
00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:05,920
Speaker 3: have scored sixteen points or fewer in three straights. Like

373
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Speaker 3: the Raiders, as you mentioned a second ago, have just

374
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Speaker 3: been on kind of a downward trajectory. You know, maybe

375
00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:15,840
Speaker 3: they are starting to feel the effects of John Gruden

376
00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:19,240
Speaker 3: not being there calling plays. The offense just hasn't seemed

377
00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,000
Speaker 3: quite as functional. And Dallas, I mean, we know they're

378
00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:24,480
Speaker 3: going to be missing their top two wide receivers, which

379
00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:27,040
Speaker 3: is well, I guess technically I don't know about that,

380
00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:30,320
Speaker 3: right because they don't Yeah, I mean, so we don't

381
00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:31,480
Speaker 3: know about CD Lamb yet.

382
00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:33,040
Speaker 2: Like it's it's very rare.

383
00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,320
Speaker 3: As you know, some of my injury people have pointed out,

384
00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:40,400
Speaker 3: for a concussed player to get cleared, someone who was

385
00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:42,600
Speaker 3: hurt on a Sunday to get cleared for a Thursdays,

386
00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:45,720
Speaker 3: it's pretty rare. So I think Lamb is going to

387
00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,880
Speaker 3: be out for this one. Yeah, I think it's going

388
00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:52,640
Speaker 3: to be not a shootout, and you know, maybe there

389
00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:54,040
Speaker 3: are going to be some points put up.

390
00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:56,480
Speaker 2: Dak Prescott is certainly still capable.

391
00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:58,360
Speaker 3: I think that the Cowboys will be able to do

392
00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,240
Speaker 3: business on the ground against the Raiders, as most teams are.

393
00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:03,400
Speaker 3: But I think the Raiders might struggle to move the

394
00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:08,320
Speaker 3: ball in this one, and man like, any total fifty

395
00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:10,760
Speaker 3: or higher just seems like a stretch in this game.

396
00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,000
Speaker 3: So I'm hitting the under pretty hard here.

397
00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:18,480
Speaker 1: We joked about it pat last week. It was Chris Raybond, right,

398
00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:20,919
Speaker 1: friend of the show of both the betting pros on

399
00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:23,720
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros side, who had tweeted out that I don't

400
00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,159
Speaker 1: understand why everybody htes unders so much. Unders Are you

401
00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:29,760
Speaker 1: know you're winning right from the time the game starts

402
00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:30,320
Speaker 1: like that?

403
00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:32,160
Speaker 4: That's something that's true. I agree.

404
00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:34,840
Speaker 1: I mean people like to root for something, not against something.

405
00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,480
Speaker 1: But had you not taken this, and had I not

406
00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:40,400
Speaker 1: been such a coward, I probably would also have sort

407
00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:42,359
Speaker 1: of taken this as one of my best bets. Yeah,

408
00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:45,359
Speaker 1: this is a game that screams under to me, like

409
00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:46,960
Speaker 1: absolutely screams that.

410
00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 4: I agree.

411
00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:49,879
Speaker 1: I'm not expecting Ceedee Lamb to play.

412
00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:50,080
Speaker 4: Now.

413
00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,679
Speaker 1: There's been the positive sort of discussions here about the

414
00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:54,679
Speaker 1: fact that like, oh, he's in meetings, he's trending in

415
00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:58,560
Speaker 1: the right direction. Mike McCarthy is optimistic. He can't clear

416
00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,439
Speaker 1: it that quickly, Like I'll be absolutely shocked here, and

417
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,320
Speaker 1: that's a huge deal for this offense. Like you know,

418
00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,320
Speaker 1: you're down Amari Cooper, You're down Ceedee Lamb, Michael Gallup

419
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,719
Speaker 1: and Cedric Wilson, right, I mean I know Dalton Schultz

420
00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:12,840
Speaker 1: and everything like that. But yeah, that's gonna be tough.

421
00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:15,920
Speaker 1: You assume they're gonna rely on the ground game here

422
00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,359
Speaker 1: a lot, because they should win this game pretty handily.

423
00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:22,040
Speaker 1: And again they're seven and a half point favorites, I think,

424
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,919
Speaker 1: and the Raiders offense pat I don't know why. I mean,

425
00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:29,280
Speaker 1: you see it since I've lost Henry Ruggs, Like without

426
00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 1: somebody stretching the field and opening it up underneath. They're

427
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:37,520
Speaker 1: just unable to really, you know, move the ball cohesively

428
00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,520
Speaker 1: each and every week, so they're just struggling. Maybe that

429
00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:42,879
Speaker 1: changes right now, maybe they finally get you know, Deshaun

430
00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:46,360
Speaker 1: Jackson involved, but you know, absent that, it is tough

431
00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,320
Speaker 1: to see them putting up too many points. I love

432
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:50,200
Speaker 1: it and you we talked about it. I said, Pat

433
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:51,920
Speaker 1: giving the teaser piece, and you were like, I love

434
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,800
Speaker 1: the under. So it is partially what I've done. And

435
00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:56,720
Speaker 1: actually it's not one of our best bets, Pat, But

436
00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:59,040
Speaker 1: I'm wondering what you think of the spread because it's

437
00:18:59,080 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 1: seven and a half.

438
00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:00,800
Speaker 4: That too much for me.

439
00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,040
Speaker 1: But I did do a same game teaser here where

440
00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:05,720
Speaker 1: I tease the total up to fifty six and a

441
00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:07,800
Speaker 1: half and I'm taking the under, and then I tease

442
00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:09,919
Speaker 1: Dallas down. It's hard for me to see that with

443
00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:11,760
Speaker 1: or without cde Lamb. It's really hard for me to

444
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,880
Speaker 1: see Dallas losing this game at home on Thanksgiving where

445
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,160
Speaker 1: they're now being a little pressured here by the Eagles.

446
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:18,640
Speaker 1: They've got to come out with it, so I tease

447
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:19,800
Speaker 1: them down to one and a half. What do you

448
00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:22,120
Speaker 1: think about that? Out of curiosity about that, two teams teaser.

449
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:25,480
Speaker 3: I like teasing it down. I agree, I have a

450
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:29,320
Speaker 3: hard team hard time seeing Dallas dump one to a

451
00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:32,399
Speaker 3: reeling Raiders team at home on Thanksgiving. It just doesn't

452
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,080
Speaker 3: seem like something that could happen. I think it's a

453
00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:39,080
Speaker 3: little too tall to bet it as is. You know,

454
00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:40,960
Speaker 3: it's probably just going to be a stay away from

455
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:45,200
Speaker 3: me because I think the perception, and maybe this leads

456
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:49,480
Speaker 3: to the high total, is that you know, normally we

457
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:53,080
Speaker 3: can count of the Raiders defense being hot garbage juice,

458
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,560
Speaker 3: and that really hasn't been the case this year. I mean,

459
00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:57,880
Speaker 3: they're not great against the run, They've been pretty good

460
00:19:57,880 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 3: against the past. I mean they've got Max Crosby play

461
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:03,680
Speaker 3: like a young JJ Watts at left end, so.

462
00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:06,920
Speaker 2: And they can actually cover a little bit.

463
00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 3: So that's part of why I think the total is

464
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:11,639
Speaker 3: so high, and maybe part of why I think the

465
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:13,440
Speaker 3: spread is so high.

466
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:13,919
Speaker 2: I don't know.

467
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:17,280
Speaker 3: It's just hard to get a read on the how

468
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:19,720
Speaker 3: spunky the Raiders are going to be for this one,

469
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 3: because they.

470
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:22,479
Speaker 2: Are going in the wrong direction. For sure.

471
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 3: I don't think they're a horrible team, but right now

472
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:29,880
Speaker 3: it's just the trending. The trend for them is downward

473
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:32,560
Speaker 3: and I don't know. I just can't get on either

474
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 3: side of this one at the line. But if you

475
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 3: tease it down, I like that. I like it tease

476
00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:39,760
Speaker 3: down to just Cowboys way basically.

477
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:41,760
Speaker 1: And I think further to your point on the total,

478
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 1: by the way, is the fact that, like what did

479
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 1: we see last week? We saw Joe Mixon with you know,

480
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,720
Speaker 1: thirty rush attempts, you know, and I think you've got

481
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:50,120
Speaker 1: both backs here in spoiler alert, I may be going

482
00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 1: there for one of my props. That's something that I

483
00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:54,199
Speaker 1: think you're going to see again. I think you're going

484
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 1: to see a lot of running the ball, running leads

485
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:59,159
Speaker 1: the clock, leads two more under. So yeah, I like it.

486
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:02,479
Speaker 1: I know nobody wants against scoring on Thanksgiving, but I

487
00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 1: do like that one for sure, Pat. And the first

488
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 1: one on the Bears lines on a little luke warmont,

489
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:09,320
Speaker 1: but that one I am I am higher on. So

490
00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 1: for my second bet, Pat, I was actually going to

491
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 1: take the Broncos getting three from the Chargers, but it

492
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,359
Speaker 1: moved to two at three, but it moved to two

493
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:19,199
Speaker 1: and a half. I don't like it that much. I

494
00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 1: do think this is a little bit of a letdown

495
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:22,520
Speaker 1: spot here for the Chargers after that big win, and

496
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:24,359
Speaker 1: you've got the Broncos at home off bye, but again

497
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 1: at two and a half, I don't like it as much.

498
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 1: So I'm going to a much much uglier game, and

499
00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:31,080
Speaker 1: I'm going to bet against my own team, the Jets,

500
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 1: and I'm going to take the Texans, who are now

501
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 1: under a field goal. Was a field goal earlier, but

502
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,760
Speaker 1: it's not two and a half on the consensus lines

503
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 1: over at bettingpros dot com to the Jets in Houston,

504
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 1: pat one Zach Wilson was named the starter.

505
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 4: I like this a little bit.

506
00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 1: And you put aside what you think of Wilson generally speaking, okay,

507
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,560
Speaker 1: font online, is that we have seen quarterbacks come back

508
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 1: from a long layoff and just experience rust and I

509
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:57,960
Speaker 1: think you're going to see that from Wilson here, Like,

510
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 1: regardless of how good he is this year or what

511
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 1: he's going to be doing, I think he's going to

512
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:04,200
Speaker 1: be rusty in this game, and I think the Jets

513
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 1: are going to struggle to put up points. There's no

514
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 1: Michael Carter in this game. That does hurt. He was

515
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:13,440
Speaker 1: obviously a huge point of sort of emphasis of this offense,

516
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 1: Jets are thirty first and overall dboa the Texans are

517
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,440
Speaker 1: at home. I realized, like you could say, it's the matchups,

518
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:22,159
Speaker 1: and last week the Titans heavy had injuries and the

519
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 1: weather was bad. But they now have six sacks and

520
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 1: ten turnovers in their last two games. The defense playing

521
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: a little bit better. I think, to Rod Taller is

522
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 1: lead's gonna play it safe. The Jets have covered the

523
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:35,160
Speaker 1: spread twice this season, Pat, neither of times on the road.

524
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 1: Texans are actually three and one against spread at home.

525
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 1: The Jets defense, which was one, sort of like hanging

526
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 1: in there, I'll say generously, Pat, in the beginning of

527
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,439
Speaker 1: the season. They are no longer hanging in there. They

528
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,120
Speaker 1: are just kind of, you know whatever. So I think

529
00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 1: the Texans win this game if it's underfield goal. God,

530
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:55,159
Speaker 1: so gross, and I can't believe that this wound up

531
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 1: being one of the bets. I wanted to say. Pat

532
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,320
Speaker 1: is leaving Ja's all right on the live stream, very

533
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 1: concerned about his dog.

534
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 4: Everyone you know, he's very, very worried about it.

535
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 1: Sorry, Pat, I'm teasing you about the fact that you're

536
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,159
Speaker 1: so concerned about your dog and any noise that you

537
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 1: hear from your dog that you just left the show

538
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 1: in the middle of my rant. But that's fine, It's okay.

539
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:15,880
Speaker 1: So I am taking the Texans to a half. God,

540
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 1: what's going on with the dog, Matt, What do you have?

541
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,879
Speaker 2: Well, he got the bone next to a plastic NERF

542
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 2: gun launcher, so that was gonna make some some more

543
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 2: substantial noise than just gnawing, So I had to move

544
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:28,480
Speaker 2: the NERF gun.

545
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:28,920
Speaker 4: Fair.

546
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 1: It's a fair point. So pat Texans laying two and

547
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,240
Speaker 1: a half against the Jets.

548
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you, Dan on the quarterback thing is

549
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 3: a big thing. I mean it's like basically starting anew

550
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 3: for Jack Wilson after the long layoff. And yeah, I

551
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:46,040
Speaker 3: mean a quarterback. We have seen it Russell Wilson. Uh yeah,

552
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 3: look at how he struggled in his first two games

553
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 3: back and not as long a layoff either or is

554
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 3: it about the same I can't remember about the same. Yeah,

555
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:57,360
Speaker 3: So I agree with you, and I think the Houston

556
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 3: defense is actually a little bit better than people.

557
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 2: Maybe give them credit for the one wild card here.

558
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 3: I think that could hurt you, as if to Rod

559
00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:10,639
Speaker 3: Taylor throws three interceptions like that's the one possibility. But

560
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 3: you know, if I was betting, if it was a

561
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 3: prop bet on interceptions Wilson versus Taylor, I would definitely

562
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 3: be betting Wilson with more interceptions in this.

563
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,120
Speaker 1: Gay so and again, we saw Taylor, by the way,

564
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 1: in that first game back after his long layoff against Miami,

565
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 1: look absolutely terrible, right, and that's it. And he looked

566
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 1: at least a little more competent last week. And he

567
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,119
Speaker 1: has the rushing ability which can extend drives and everything

568
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 1: like that. So again, I think they can play conservatively here.

569
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 1: They can beat the Jets pretty easily with Zach Wilson

570
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 1: in their center. Hope I'm wrong from a personal perspective,

571
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 1: so I can just enjoy, you know, watching the Jets

572
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 1: maybe squeak out one of their you know, three or

573
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 1: four victories on the year. But I do think the

574
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,400
Speaker 1: Texans at home with Wilson's first came back cover this

575
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 1: short spread. So I will take it with them laying

576
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 1: two and a half. Again, it's been bouncing back and

577
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:56,879
Speaker 1: forth between three and two and a half, So if

578
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 1: I see it at two and a half, that's when

579
00:24:58,080 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 1: I would strike it. Set three. I'm going to stay

580
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:01,200
Speaker 1: with last batpat.

581
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 3: What he got Okay, so I've got the Rams plus

582
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 3: one against my beloved Green Bay Packers Dan, and it's

583
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:12,439
Speaker 3: just i'd like, it's so injury related this one. The

584
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 3: Packers are just like decimated now and they keep adding

585
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 3: names to the list unfortunately, like all these not just

586
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 3: like regular starters, like blue chip guys. Elton Jenkins is

587
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 3: a big one because they are already without David Baktiori.

588
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:30,639
Speaker 3: We found out this week that Baktiari had gone undergone

589
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 3: an initial clean up surgery, which is why his return

590
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,639
Speaker 3: has been delayed. And I mean he did tear his

591
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 3: acl last New Year's Eve Day, I think, so maybe

592
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 3: not a surprise that it's taken him so long, but man,

593
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 3: without Jenkins and boch Tiari like the two anchors of

594
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 3: you know, maybe the best left side of an offensive

595
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:51,640
Speaker 3: line in football.

596
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:56,120
Speaker 2: Rashan Gary not sure about his status. He hyper extended

597
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 2: his elbow.

598
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 3: Against two weeks ago, did not play last week in

599
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 3: the loss of the Vikings. And that's huge because he

600
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,360
Speaker 3: has turned into, you know, one of the premier defensive

601
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:10,400
Speaker 3: players in the league. And Aaron Jones remains out too,

602
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 3: so I'm not as big a deal. I mean, aj

603
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:18,360
Speaker 3: Dillon is terrific, but boy, they're just so under man

604
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 3: and then you've got the Rams coming in fresh Like,

605
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 3: I think it's going to be really hard for the

606
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 3: Packers to win that game. I know they're undefeated in

607
00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 3: Lambeau this year, but you know, give me the money line, bet,

608
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 3: I think, rather than the one point. Sure, yeah, you

609
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 3: know I'll always take the money line over the one point.

610
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 4: Well you might as well.

611
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 1: I mean, like, I mean, there was a tie, there

612
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,640
Speaker 1: was a tie obviously with the Steelers in the lines. Yeah,

613
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 1: the money line is you know, minus one ten anyway,

614
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,639
Speaker 1: so it doesn't really matter. But yeah, I agree with

615
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 1: you on this one. Again.

616
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 4: The offensive line.

617
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 1: Injuries for the Packers just really tough to overcome at

618
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 1: this point. And you have a limited Aaron Rodgers, who

619
00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 1: I mean, he's fantastic and he threw for over three

620
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 1: hundred yards four touchdown passes in those last game. But

621
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 1: still against that defense. You've got Von Miller now fully

622
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 1: sort of you know, ready to go and integrated. You've

623
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 1: got Obj now sort of you know, another week to

624
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 1: sort of get acclimated to the offense. Yeah, I agree

625
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 1: with you. I do think the Rams win this game.

626
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 1: One of my favorite bets another one that I teased up.

627
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:18,640
Speaker 1: I'd love for it to get to one and a half,

628
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 1: so I can get it over seven and a half.

629
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 1: But I'll take them at seven because I do think

630
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 1: that you know, worst case scenario, they you know, they

631
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 1: the Packers eke out a squeaker here. But I like

632
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 1: the Rams to win this game. So I am backing

633
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,439
Speaker 1: you as well on that one, and I will try you.

634
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 1: I'm going to take a total here for my last bet,

635
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 1: it's the Titans and the Patriots under forty four. You've

636
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 1: just got two really solid defenses here in this game.

637
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 1: The Titans are twelfth in defensive DVOA. Like, I don't

638
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 1: know when that happened, right, their their defense was kind

639
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 1: of something that we felt like we could pick on

640
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 1: earlier in the season. But the Pats obviously have a

641
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 1: great defense there second to DVOA defensive DVOA.

642
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:56,119
Speaker 4: They both run the ball a time.

643
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 1: The Titans run the ball forty six percent of the time,

644
00:27:58,000 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 1: the Pats forty five percent of the time. Both that's

645
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 1: top ten in the NFL. They both play slow. The

646
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 1: Titans are twenty third in neutral situation pace of play.

647
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 1: The Pats are twenty fourth in neutral situation base of play.

648
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 1: So this is going to be a slow, methodical, run

649
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,440
Speaker 1: heavy game and the Titans are gonna have no weapons.

650
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 1: I'm not expecting aj Brown to suit up in this one.

651
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 1: I know he had negative X rays, but even if

652
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 1: he does, they're just gonna double them, you know, give

653
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,400
Speaker 1: safety help over at the top. Anyway, So you look

654
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:27,160
Speaker 1: at the games without Derrick Henry for the Titans forty

655
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 1: four points against the Rams, forty four points against the Saints,

656
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 1: thirty five points against the Texans, and I realized two

657
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,440
Speaker 1: good defensive teams, but they'll have one here as well.

658
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,680
Speaker 1: And then the Texans game was you know, in the rain.

659
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 1: But this is just a slow defensive game, Pat, I

660
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 1: don't feel I don't have good like feeling on who's

661
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 1: going to.

662
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 4: Cover the six and a half points spread.

663
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 1: But it does strike me as just a game that's

664
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,719
Speaker 1: not gonna, you know, involve a ton of points here,

665
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 1: a lot of running slow. So forty four is not

666
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 1: like a huge total or anything like that. It's on

667
00:28:54,560 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 1: the lower side. But I do think this one comes.

668
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 3: Under Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the side. I was

669
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 3: going to ask which way, because yeah, same here. I mean,

670
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 3: I've got New England in a survivor pool where I'm

671
00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 3: kind of limping along and don't have that many options left.

672
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 3: But like, I don't feel great about them covering that

673
00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 3: biggest spread, especially against a Titans team that's been.

674
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 2: Kind of a giant slayer this year.

675
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 3: So not that you know, we consider the Patriots giants yet,

676
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 3: but it's it's kind of interesting they're playing so well.

677
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 3: But yes, the formula for them playing so well is

678
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 3: defense and ball control and you know, keeping everything sort

679
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 3: of manageable, like in Belichick is doing a great job

680
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 3: with that.

681
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 2: No surprise there.

682
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 3: You mentioned that both teams are like in the bottom

683
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 3: eight or bottom nine as far as pace. I think

684
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 3: the under is a pretty good play here.

685
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, and again something flukey can always happen, but this

686
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:53,800
Speaker 1: strikes me as a game I'm going to be shocked

687
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 1: given just the injuries, especially for the Titans, if this

688
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 1: game goes over.

689
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 4: So I do like that.

690
00:29:57,720 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 1: All right, let me recap very quickly, pat you like

691
00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 1: the getting three against the Bears, the Raiders and the

692
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 1: Cowboys under. We'll call it fifty and a half right now.

693
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 1: It was fifty one earlier and the Rams getting one

694
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 1: from the Packers. I like the Steelers getting four and

695
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 1: a half from the Bengals, the Texans laying two and

696
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 1: a half to the Jets, and the Titans, and the

697
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 1: Pats under forty four points. So here's what I'd like

698
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 1: to do now, Pat, Let's quickly run through the remaining spreads,

699
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 1: talk about whether or not we have a lean one

700
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 1: way or another, we like any of them. Then let's

701
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: get to some player profits for the Thanksgiving game.

702
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 4: Sound good to you?

703
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 2: Sounds great?

704
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 4: Dan, dog under control?

705
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 1: He is.

706
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 3: He's still gnawing very contentedly so, and I think he

707
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 3: would be for the next four hours if I let him.

708
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 1: Your dog is better than mine, So we said, Pat,

709
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 1: that for the Cowboys laying seven and a half here

710
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving, that's just a stay away for you. You

711
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 1: think the Cowboys win, but you don't confidently feel it's

712
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 1: going to be by seven and a half point correct?

713
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 2: Correct, Yeah, I'm.

714
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 4: Gonna agree with you. Again.

715
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 1: This is a spot where I tease him down if

716
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 1: you can find a teaser piece. Again, I've done it

717
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 1: in the same game, and I've teased the total up.

718
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 1: But I've also done it with the Steelers getting four

719
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 1: and a half, moving that up to ten and a half,

720
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 1: So that's also where i'd go the Bills. This spread

721
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 1: is moving here, Pat, it was six, it was four originally.

722
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 1: My guess is because the running back injuries. Maybe I

723
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 1: don't know, or maybe money's coming in here on the Bills.

724
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:12,640
Speaker 1: It's moved to six. Now it's six and a half

725
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 1: as of this moment for the consensus spread. That's a

726
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 1: big number. I do think the Bills win this game, Pat,

727
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 1: but six and a half against the Saints in New Orleans,

728
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 1: I don't know, it feels like something I might want

729
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 1: to avoid.

730
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 3: You know, I'm probably gonna play the Bills for like

731
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:31,200
Speaker 3: maybe a one unit play here. Like I don't know

732
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 3: if we can still call the Bills defense great after

733
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 3: what Jonathan Taylor did to them last week, but like

734
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 3: this is still a really good put.

735
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 2: It this way.

736
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 3: I don't know how this New Orleans offense is going

737
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 3: to move the ball against the Bills. It just seems

738
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 3: like not only having Trevor Simmy in a quarterback, likely

739
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 3: not having Alvin Kamara, perhaps not mark ingram at running

740
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 3: back either, but like no Ryan Ramcheck at right tackle.

741
00:31:56,320 --> 00:32:00,040
Speaker 3: I mean, he didn't practice again, yesterday Arren Armstead, but

742
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 3: I think got a limited.

743
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 2: Practice in that would help.

744
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 3: But like if Armstein Ramcheck were both out against the Bills,

745
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 3: it would be pretty hopeless. So I have to take

746
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 3: the Bills in this. And plus you have to know

747
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 3: they're going to be smarting after what the Colts did

748
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 3: with them last week pretty much just embarrassed them.

749
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't know what Sean.

750
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 3: Payton could possibly have his up his sleeve to get

751
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 3: more than you know, seventeen to twenty points on the

752
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 3: board this week against Buffalo Gas.

753
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 1: Can you explain to me, Pat why they don't go

754
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 1: to Taysom Hill and just try something like they went

755
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 1: to him last.

756
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 4: Year when we were all like what are you doing?

757
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:39,440
Speaker 2: Right?

758
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 4: Why they won't go to him this year?

759
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 1: And especially after that big extension, right, which is weird

760
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 1: obviously the extension, but still why not make that switch,

761
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 1: especially in this game?

762
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know.

763
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 3: I mean, like, looking at the numbers, they haven't been

764
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 3: that awful for Simmon, at least not in the first

765
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 3: two games.

766
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 2: But it's all been garbage time.

767
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 3: It's all He's doing everything in the fourth quarter after

768
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 3: the Saints are hopelessly out of yeah, and you give,

769
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 3: like Taysom Hill all this money to just be the

770
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 3: uh you know. It's and I'm totally getting ahead of

771
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 3: myself here, Dan, It's why I kind of like Taysom

772
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 3: Hill is in any time touchdown.

773
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 1: All right, well, all right, we're gonna get that. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

774
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 1: I love it.

775
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 2: I love it.

776
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 1: All right, Let's go to the Falcons on the road

777
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 1: against the Jaguars. Falcons playing one. Any thoughts on this?

778
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'm probably gonna put a little.

779
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:28,880
Speaker 3: Something on Jacksonville in this because I think Jacksonville has

780
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 3: actually like an NFL caliber, credible defense and Atlanta is

781
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 3: just even coming off the I don't like betting against

782
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:43,440
Speaker 3: teams coming off bad, embarrassing losses if they're good enough

783
00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 3: to do something about it. I don't think Atlanta is

784
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 3: good enough to do something about it.

785
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:50,920
Speaker 1: All right, to stay away from me, But I do

786
00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:52,600
Speaker 1: think that I might go with the Falcons if I

787
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 1: had to go somewhere. It depends on if Corduo Patterson

788
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 1: is back for this one, which obviously we need to

789
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 1: wait and see, because without it there forget about it

790
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 1: their offensivest. But I just can't back the Jaguars I

791
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 1: don't care whether or not all the sort of metrics

792
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 1: say I should back the Jaguars, which basically does say

793
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 1: every single game. I just can't do it with Ervin Meyer.

794
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 1: Interesting one here, Pat Bucks visiting the Colts laying three.

795
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 1: I mean, Colts coming off that giant win against Buffalo.

796
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 4: What do you think?

797
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is where I start to sound like a

798
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:21,759
Speaker 3: broken record den saying that I don't have a lien

799
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 3: on you knowpe near these games, and you know it's

800
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 3: a betting podcast, and like, saying that you don't have

801
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 3: a lien on a lot of games is kind of

802
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 3: a bad way to go about doing things. But I

803
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 3: really don't I mean, the line seems pretty spot on.

804
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 2: You know, if I if I were going to bet

805
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 2: this game at all, I would probably go with the

806
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:44,839
Speaker 2: home dog here. But you know, with Tampa coming off

807
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 2: the Monday.

808
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 3: Night er, sort of a short work week, you know,

809
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 3: presumably they're getting a little extra time off for the

810
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:52,359
Speaker 3: holidays too.

811
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 2: But yeah, I just I don't have a strong lean

812
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 2: in this one.

813
00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 1: So I want to make it clear in my opinion,

814
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 1: at least, if you're on a betting podcast, there is

815
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 1: nothing wrong with saying you don't have a lean on

816
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 1: something because as much as people might want to bet

817
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 1: every single game, and we have, I guess it's come

818
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 1: on the show Ian McMillan, who is doing just that

819
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 1: this entire year, God bless him, but that's not what

820
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 1: we do. Like we pick our spots. And I agree

821
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 1: with you, I actually have no feel for this game.

822
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:21,319
Speaker 1: I have no idea how that this game is going

823
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 1: to play out. The Bucks have been a little disappointing,

824
00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 1: and I know they beat up on the Giants, but

825
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 1: I'm not really taking anything from that. And the Colts

826
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,480
Speaker 1: have been playing extremely, extremely well not it does sound

827
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 1: like B to A and may come back in this one,

828
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 1: Pat and that's gonna be. That's gonna be the irresistible

829
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:39,720
Speaker 1: Forrest meets the Immovable object over there with Jonathan Taylor.

830
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 1: But it's something where I just I'm gonna watch the game.

831
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna enjoy it, watch the game without any sort

832
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 1: of betting. I'm not gonna watch this one, but I

833
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 1: probably I'm gonna also sit out from a betting perspective.

834
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: That's the Panthers visiting the Dolphins, and the Panthers are

835
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 1: laying now one and a half. I think it was

836
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 1: one earlier when Joe and I looked at it, so

837
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 1: any thoughts on that now?

838
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 3: Another one where I pretty much just threw my hands

839
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 3: up in a pool where we have to pick out

840
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 3: of your game against the spread. I took Carolina just

841
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 3: thinking they maybe keep the Cam Newton mojo rolling.

842
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:14,120
Speaker 2: But you know, that's about all I could pin anything on,

843
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 2: and it.

844
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:16,879
Speaker 3: Just didn't feel like a didn't feel like a real

845
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 3: confident pick.

846
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:20,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's I would go with the Panthers if I

847
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 1: had to go somewhere. I don't, thankfully, I would just

848
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:24,880
Speaker 1: because of the defense. They are still again that that

849
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:28,719
Speaker 1: seventh playoff spot in the NFC is going, it's it's

850
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,760
Speaker 1: really made things fun because every team is basically involved

851
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 1: in it. And obviously the Panthers have have gone all

852
00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 1: in on this season, you know, given the trade for

853
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 1: Gilmour and everything they're sort of doing, and I think

854
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 1: the defense is going to be enough here to you know,

855
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:44,320
Speaker 1: have them eat out a win in at one and

856
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:46,320
Speaker 1: a half. I would go there, but again, not somewhere

857
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 1: I want to go if I can avoid it. We

858
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 1: talked already about the Jets and the Texans, and the

859
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,399
Speaker 1: Texans are laying two and a half points. I will

860
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:54,280
Speaker 1: say again, I see a couple of threes at points

861
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 1: bet and fox bet again. I don't like it there,

862
00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 1: but the consensus sign of betting pros is two and

863
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 1: a half. It is where I would go. The Pats

864
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:02,400
Speaker 1: are laying the six and a half to the Titans.

865
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:04,359
Speaker 1: We both agreed, it's just a game that we kind

866
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 1: of want to stay away from entirely other than the

867
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 1: total correct Yeah, okay, very good. The Eagles pat are

868
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 1: visiting the Giants laying three and a half here. I

869
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 1: think it was three when it opened up. After the

870
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 1: game on Monday night it went to three and a half.

871
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 4: What do you think?

872
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 1: Eagles are rolling? Giants look like in disarray. But it's

873
00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 1: a divisional game. Seems too easy to pick the Eagles almost.

874
00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 3: It does seem too easy, And it feels like I'm

875
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,879
Speaker 3: walking into a snare trap here day. But so maybe

876
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 3: I'll be hanging upside down by my feet after I

877
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:35,880
Speaker 3: bet the Eagles on this one. But that's kind of

878
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 3: it momentum. I mean, the Eagles have been they've been

879
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:45,200
Speaker 3: getting it done with this bizarrely conservative game plan. I mean,

880
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:48,840
Speaker 3: it's totally working. They're playing Ravens.

881
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 2: Ball basically, and it's worked very well for them.

882
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:57,239
Speaker 3: Their defense is credible, and the Giants just look completely.

883
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 2: Lost on offense on Monday Night. It's worriesome.

884
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, how soon can they circle the wagons

885
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:07,720
Speaker 3: after getting rid of Jason Garrett? You know, Jason Garrett

886
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:12,360
Speaker 3: may it may cure some ailments, but not everyone. And

887
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:15,840
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones just look terrible on Monday night. My goodness.

888
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna take the Eagles here, even though it

889
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:24,240
Speaker 3: feels suspect like I am walking into a dark alley.

890
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 1: For certain, if I had to go one way, it

891
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 1: would be the Eagles. But it definitely just feels like

892
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:31,240
Speaker 1: the books are saying, go ahead, take the Eagles.

893
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:33,400
Speaker 4: You know you want to take the Eagles. Take the Eagles.

894
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:35,359
Speaker 1: And that always scares me a little bit enough where

895
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,320
Speaker 1: I will second guess it. But again, if I'm in

896
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 1: a pool like yours where I have to go somewhere,

897
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 1: I've got to go with the Eagles. But again, divisional

898
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 1: game home dog seems too easy. It gets me a

899
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:47,799
Speaker 1: little worried with it. But yeah, I would go that

900
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 1: way if I had to, just because that seems right.

901
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:51,720
Speaker 1: I mentioned Pat the Broncos and the Chargers. The spread

902
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 1: is two and a half here with the Broncos as

903
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:57,240
Speaker 1: home dogs. Any lean at all on this game ever.

904
00:38:57,160 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 3: So slightly too the home dog with the Broncos, but

905
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:02,879
Speaker 3: not one that I'm probably going to play.

906
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 2: I think that's just who I picked in that pool.

907
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 1: Yep, I agree, I had to pick it, I'd still

908
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 1: go Broncos two and a half, But you know, below three,

909
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:12,240
Speaker 1: it's a game I want to stay away from. Vikings

910
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 1: are visiting the forty nine Ers. The consensus line is three.

911
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:17,280
Speaker 1: Oddly enough, my book is at three and a half

912
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:20,799
Speaker 1: on DraftKings, which usually I always feel like the spot

913
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 1: I'd want to go is always on the other way

914
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 1: with DraftKings, they're always I feel like a little sharper

915
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 1: than what I want. But at three and a half,

916
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 1: that's mildly intriguing there with the Vikings.

917
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:30,280
Speaker 4: But what do you think about it? At three?

918
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 3: That half point would make a world of difference, considering

919
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 3: that every game the Vikings play is a you know,

920
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:40,440
Speaker 3: one possession game. Yeah. I've got some friends up in

921
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:43,279
Speaker 3: Minnesota who have had years taken off their lives by

922
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 3: this Viking season so far, and getting the hook there

923
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:52,760
Speaker 3: would be fantastic. I'm hoping I can find it somewhere

924
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 3: because I'd like to bet the Vikings at three and

925
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 3: a half. At three, I'll be a little less enthusiastic.

926
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 3: May put a little something on them anyway, though.

927
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:01,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, I do think it's worth it.

928
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:04,480
Speaker 1: And again, shan you know Kyle Shanahan not he's a

929
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 1: little Mike Tomliny. You kind of want to back him

930
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:09,360
Speaker 1: as a dog and maybe not so much as a

931
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 1: favorite in this one. So yeah, it is hard attach season.

932
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:15,239
Speaker 1: And again that's basically it. There are a couple of

933
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 1: random strays out there at three and a half with DraftKings,

934
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,240
Speaker 1: but for the most part it's at three. So yeah,

935
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:23,640
Speaker 1: if you get three and a half, I'd be willing

936
00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 1: to go to the Vikings. I'll probably stay away from

937
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 1: it just because, man, I hate backing Kirk Cousins. It

938
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:30,479
Speaker 1: makes my heart hurt. Ravens are at home here here

939
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:33,799
Speaker 1: Pat against the Browns. Consensus line is three and a half.

940
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 1: That MGM is at four our sponsor, but it's at

941
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:37,800
Speaker 1: three and a half for the most part out there.

942
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 1: Weird game, Pat, I mean, you've got Kareem Hunt was

943
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:42,800
Speaker 1: just designated to return from I r as was Jack Conklin.

944
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 1: Don't know whether or not they're going to be able

945
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:47,319
Speaker 1: to suit up here. You've got the illness concerns for

946
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 1: the Ravens with Lamar Jackson and Markis Brown. I don't

947
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 1: know pat home Ravens laying three and a half.

948
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 3: Well, you know, I'm in that pool, Dan, where Michael

949
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 3: Beller's pool where we thirty two of us are are

950
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 3: drawn team before the season and half to bet that

951
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:04,399
Speaker 3: team against the spread every week.

952
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 2: And I drew the.

953
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:08,399
Speaker 3: Ravens this week, clipping along at four and six with them.

954
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 3: So whatever I pick for this game, you probably want

955
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:13,399
Speaker 3: to go the opposite way, a game that I will

956
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 3: not be betting myself. But I did pick the Ravens

957
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 3: at home. I always have a hard time going against

958
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 3: the Ravens at home, and that's kind of hurt me.

959
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 3: I don't think they're great ats in home games this year,

960
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 3: So yeah, and I mean it is worrisome the Cleveland

961
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 3: is getting healthier again. I mean, Conklin would be a

962
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 3: big deal for them, and Hunt too. I mean to

963
00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:41,479
Speaker 3: give them that two headed attack, which they need because

964
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 3: their passing game is not very potent.

965
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:48,320
Speaker 2: So slight lean towards.

966
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 3: The ravens here, but certainly not a recommendation to all

967
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 3: of our friends out there.

968
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 1: And again, designated to return doesn't mean, of course, that

969
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:56,840
Speaker 1: they're going to come back this week necessarily. It just

970
00:41:56,920 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 1: means that they practice, you know, twenty one day windows open,

971
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:02,520
Speaker 1: so so hopefully they get back. Alex El, who is

972
00:42:02,560 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 1: here with us, is asking what do you think about

973
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 1: the total?

974
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:07,839
Speaker 4: Pat? He likes the under. It's forty five right now.

975
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:10,480
Speaker 1: Now what's interesting, Pat, is this is all over the

976
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 1: place from what I can see, And my guess is

977
00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 1: it's because of the health considerations. Forty five is consensus,

978
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:16,719
Speaker 1: but it's all the way up to forty six and

979
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 1: a half at bet MGM, it's at forty six at FanDuel,

980
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:23,319
Speaker 1: it's forty five at DraftKings. So it's a little all

981
00:42:23,360 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 1: over the place right now. Consensus at forty five, but

982
00:42:25,719 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 1: you can talk about it if you wanted forty six

983
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 1: and a half.

984
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 4: Any lean on that.

985
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, we also have to take over unders for tiebreaker

986
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 3: purposes in that pool, and I did take the under

987
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 3: in this, so I'm with Alex on that.

988
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 1: One way to go, Alex and Yeah, I'd be inclined

989
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 1: to agree, just because of the you know how the

990
00:42:41,560 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 1: Browns offense is playing right now in the Ravens sort

991
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:45,279
Speaker 1: of being a little up and down, and again they

992
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:47,520
Speaker 1: run the ball a lot, even if it's less than

993
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,799
Speaker 1: previous seasons. Last one Monday Night Football. If you bet

994
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 1: this game, you are an incredible human. The Seahawks are

995
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 1: getting one in Washington right now. Any thoughts on it whatsoever?

996
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 3: Pat, No, I completely threw my hands up in the

997
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:02,839
Speaker 3: air when I saw the line on this one, Dan like,

998
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 3: I mean, I might have actually flipped a coin to

999
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,440
Speaker 3: make a pick in that point spread pool.

1000
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:09,360
Speaker 4: On Man, this is correct.

1001
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:12,239
Speaker 1: I like it. Okay, there you go. Let's get to

1002
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 1: some props, Pat. So here's what you can do. By

1003
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 1: the way, guys, if you are here with us, if

1004
00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 1: you're listening to this, you hopefully know this right now

1005
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:21,319
Speaker 1: if you follow us. But at Betting Pros, we have

1006
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:22,840
Speaker 1: the prop bet sheet sheet.

1007
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 4: Okay.

1008
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 1: What that does is it compares the available lines in

1009
00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:28,759
Speaker 1: the market to consensus projections, which we have, and it

1010
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:32,160
Speaker 1: sort of recommends based on the differences between the two.

1011
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 4: It's a great way just to frame it.

1012
00:43:34,120 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 1: You can sort by game, you can sort by player,

1013
00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 1: you can sort buy stack whatever you want to do.

1014
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:40,440
Speaker 4: So it's a really good way to do it.

1015
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:45,360
Speaker 1: Uh, patit. Let's start with the first game, Chicago against Detroit.

1016
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 1: Do you have a player prop that you were eyeing

1017
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:48,480
Speaker 1: in this game?

1018
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1019
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 3: So, Darnelle Mooney over fifty six and a half is

1020
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:57,360
Speaker 3: pretty compelling considering that he got sixteen targets with Alan

1021
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:01,959
Speaker 3: Robinson out last week. Sure, if we've gotten definitive word

1022
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:04,480
Speaker 3: on Robinson, but I suspect he is going to be

1023
00:44:04,600 --> 00:44:05,240
Speaker 3: out again.

1024
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:07,880
Speaker 4: Yep, if he's in.

1025
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 1: Does that matter to you, by the way, because I

1026
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 1: don't think it would for me. I think I'd still

1027
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:11,840
Speaker 1: take the over on it.

1028
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, like, is he that much more of

1029
00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 3: a threat to Mooney's target load than Marquise Goodwin is?

1030
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 2: Probably not?

1031
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:21,480
Speaker 4: So Yeah.

1032
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 3: I just plus, we know that the Detroit secondary isn't good.

1033
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,800
Speaker 3: They haven't given up a lot of passing yards simply

1034
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:31,359
Speaker 3: because it's really easy to move the all on them

1035
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:35,359
Speaker 3: on the ground. But I still like Mooney as sort

1036
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:39,200
Speaker 3: of the de facto alpha receiver here. Fifty six and

1037
00:44:39,239 --> 00:44:41,520
Speaker 3: a half seems like kind of a low bar to clear.

1038
00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 3: So that's that's my first one.

1039
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 1: I do love it, and actually what I'm doing PAT

1040
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:50,240
Speaker 1: is for fantasy purposes. I do projections for every fantasy

1041
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 1: relevant player. Again, these are very early projections which I

1042
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:56,200
Speaker 1: refined throughout the week and again this Thursday game, so

1043
00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 1: I am just looking it up. I will say that

1044
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:00,879
Speaker 1: on our prop at Chichi's shows you what the best

1045
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:03,760
Speaker 1: available book is for these prop and actually at FANDLE

1046
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:05,120
Speaker 1: it's fifty five and a half, so you can get

1047
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:07,759
Speaker 1: a little bit extra even on that as opposed to

1048
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 1: fifty six and a half.

1049
00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 4: But I am right there with you. I am looking

1050
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 4: what I.

1051
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:15,520
Speaker 1: Haven't projected at and I have him projected at sixty

1052
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:18,839
Speaker 1: three point two receiving yards PAT. So there you go,

1053
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:21,960
Speaker 1: we are there with the over very good. And again

1054
00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 1: I've mentioned this, but PAT is basically probably the most

1055
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 1: accurate Fantasy rancor for like a decade. So you have

1056
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:32,359
Speaker 1: a pretty good bet here on player props. All right,

1057
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:34,480
Speaker 1: any other ones that you're eyeing in this game, PAT

1058
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:36,479
Speaker 1: that you like one way or another on it? Before

1059
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 1: I get a couple, I guess I can go through.

1060
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 4: Go ahead.

1061
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:40,600
Speaker 2: Generally, I'm not a big anytime TD better.

1062
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:43,920
Speaker 3: I think there you don't get great odds generally, but

1063
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 3: because this is going to be such an unsightly game,

1064
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:50,279
Speaker 3: and because I need action to make it interesting to me, Dan,

1065
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:53,360
Speaker 3: you know, and so I have something to watch instead

1066
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,839
Speaker 3: them talking to my family on Thanksgiving. I think I'm

1067
00:45:56,840 --> 00:46:01,920
Speaker 3: going to take the anytime TD and Cole combats, Okay, yes,

1068
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 3: and I just you know again, sort of paucity of

1069
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 3: target options for the Bears with Robinson outs and Comet

1070
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:12,360
Speaker 3: is that big body when they get close to the

1071
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 3: pen zone and then one just I mean, this is

1072
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 3: a fade of the Bears offense. I like inn anytime

1073
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 3: Lions defensive touchdown at plus six fifty, Oh wow, I

1074
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 3: could very much see a pick six, a fumble, recovery something,

1075
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 3: So you know, plus six fifty. I'm not confidently predicting

1076
00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:37,960
Speaker 3: one by any means, but I kind of like those odds.

1077
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 3: And I'm gonna put a little little something down on that.

1078
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 4: All right.

1079
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:45,000
Speaker 1: I like it, all right, getting a little crazy here,

1080
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:47,319
Speaker 1: I will say that Alex l who's also here again,

1081
00:46:47,600 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 1: you know, a bunch of people are here with us

1082
00:46:48,719 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 1: asking about stuff. He did ask earlier on the Cole comet,

1083
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:54,520
Speaker 1: so you like the touchdown, but he did ask on

1084
00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:57,319
Speaker 1: the receiving yards, which I'm looking at right now, looks

1085
00:46:57,360 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 1: like thirty five and a half. I don't really I

1086
00:47:01,120 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 1: think betting cole Comet receiving yards Pat is something that's

1087
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:06,359
Speaker 1: too scary for me to really go near. Even though

1088
00:47:06,520 --> 00:47:08,960
Speaker 1: the projection again on our prop Betchichi does have him

1089
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 1: for forty I believe forty point seventy nine, so it

1090
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:15,080
Speaker 1: would clear that number. But what do you think any

1091
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 1: lean on that.

1092
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 2: I kind of like it, you know, again, I think

1093
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 2: I'm a limited number of target options for the Bears

1094
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:25,719
Speaker 2: against a pretty soft defense, So I do kind of

1095
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 2: like it.

1096
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 4: Okay, so I do.

1097
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 1: So I do want to ask about the running backs, Pat,

1098
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:32,799
Speaker 1: because I do think that running backs are sort of

1099
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:35,040
Speaker 1: where it's at. The line keeps moving up, by the way,

1100
00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 1: and the one thing with player prop lines, Pat, is

1101
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 1: they move quickly. I mean, at least as far as

1102
00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:40,480
Speaker 1: what I can see right. There are a lot of

1103
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 1: times I like the line. I look and it's like

1104
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 1: four or five yards different the next morning when I look.

1105
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 1: Montgomery has a huge line right now, Pat. Now, of

1106
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:51,879
Speaker 1: course he torched the Lions in their first game sort

1107
00:47:51,880 --> 00:47:55,239
Speaker 1: of early on, but it's eighty and a half is

1108
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:58,840
Speaker 1: the total that's like, I would love to find a

1109
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:02,120
Speaker 1: way to take the over on a daved Montgomery rushing

1110
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 1: yards prop. But that line is I don't want to

1111
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:07,240
Speaker 1: go under it because I do think there's a scenario

1112
00:48:07,239 --> 00:48:09,680
Speaker 1: where they just run all day. But it's I gotta

1113
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 1: stay away from that one. What do you think?

1114
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:14,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the one thing that gives me pauseive

1115
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 3: like I thought that was looking like an under two

1116
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 3: is that the Lions have been a massive run funnel defense.

1117
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 3: The opponents are running against them. I'm basically fifty percent

1118
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:29,640
Speaker 3: of their offensive snaps. So you know, unpresumably that the Bears,

1119
00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:33,000
Speaker 3: with Andy Dalton that quarterback, have incentive to be run

1120
00:48:33,040 --> 00:48:37,719
Speaker 3: heavy themselves. Plus, now that Montgomery's been back for a

1121
00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:39,440
Speaker 3: little bit, I think they might feel a little bit

1122
00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:42,280
Speaker 3: more comfortable giving him twenty two to twenty three carries

1123
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:43,000
Speaker 3: in this one.

1124
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:44,720
Speaker 2: So it's a stay away.

1125
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 3: But yeah, that is I definitely raised an eyebrow on

1126
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:50,200
Speaker 3: myself when I saw that number.

1127
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:52,319
Speaker 1: I can tell you one that I like here if

1128
00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:53,959
Speaker 1: we look on the other side of the running backs,

1129
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:56,880
Speaker 1: I probably don't love it enough to go crazy with

1130
00:48:56,920 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 1: it or anything like that, But you know, the under

1131
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:02,400
Speaker 1: swift is at sixty five and a half rushing yards.

1132
00:49:02,600 --> 00:49:06,439
Speaker 1: The Bears aren't that great necessarily against the run. They've

1133
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:09,920
Speaker 1: got injuries of course with their run stuffers here, and

1134
00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:11,879
Speaker 1: we've seen it now with Dan Campbell Patt we talked

1135
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:13,400
Speaker 1: about in the Fantasy Show. I know only got I

1136
00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 1: believe fourteen carries in this last game. But obviously they're

1137
00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 1: going to commit to the run. Not as much of

1138
00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 1: the passing downs work here for DeAndre Swift through the air,

1139
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:24,120
Speaker 1: but a lot on the ground. That's what they want

1140
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:26,280
Speaker 1: to do. In a game where the spread is three,

1141
00:49:26,400 --> 00:49:29,160
Speaker 1: you have to assume that Swift is probably going to

1142
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:31,560
Speaker 1: see upwards of fifteen carries.

1143
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:32,919
Speaker 4: Here in this game, so long as he stays healthy.

1144
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:34,960
Speaker 1: Jamal Williams did in factor in that much, so I

1145
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:36,880
Speaker 1: kind of lean the over here at sixty five and

1146
00:49:36,920 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 1: a half for his rushing yards.

1147
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:38,839
Speaker 4: What do you think of that?

1148
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, you may have talked me into that. And we

1149
00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 3: have seen this abrupt shift from sort of the Alvin

1150
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:48,440
Speaker 3: Kamara type usage. Well, actually the shift has kind of

1151
00:49:48,480 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 3: mirrored the Alvin Kamara usage from last year, where it was,

1152
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:55,440
Speaker 3: you know, doing significant damage as a pass catcher and

1153
00:49:55,480 --> 00:49:58,759
Speaker 3: sort of limited to maybe twelve to fifteen carries a

1154
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:01,759
Speaker 3: game to the Kamara of early this year where he

1155
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 3: was just getting these massive twenty twenty five carry games

1156
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 3: and not so much usage in the passing game. That's

1157
00:50:08,560 --> 00:50:12,360
Speaker 3: how things have moved with Swift too. And you know

1158
00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:14,879
Speaker 3: that that Steelers game where he had what thirty three

1159
00:50:15,000 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 3: carries yep, last week over over twenty the way things

1160
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:23,719
Speaker 3: have been trending. I do think the over there is

1161
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 3: a pretty good looking play.

1162
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:27,319
Speaker 1: I mean, it does seem pretty clear when the game

1163
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:29,600
Speaker 1: is close, Pat, they're gonna try to lean into the run,

1164
00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 1: as they probably should because they've got absolutely nothing going

1165
00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:34,719
Speaker 1: on in the passing game. So yeah, that's one that

1166
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 1: I was really eyeing the over sixty five and a

1167
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:39,319
Speaker 1: half for DeAndre Swift. All right, let's get to the

1168
00:50:40,120 --> 00:50:43,400
Speaker 1: Raiders visiting Dallas. Any props that you were eyeing in

1169
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 1: this one?

1170
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:47,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, just one, and it's a sort of a strange one.

1171
00:50:48,239 --> 00:50:51,680
Speaker 3: But I sort of like Josh Jacobs over twenty and

1172
00:50:51,680 --> 00:50:53,840
Speaker 3: a half receiving yards.

1173
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean for recent recent games, Pat, I mean

1174
00:50:57,320 --> 00:50:59,320
Speaker 1: recent games have sort of you know, he's been heavily

1175
00:50:59,360 --> 00:50:59,920
Speaker 1: involved in the.

1176
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:06,759
Speaker 3: He has his last five games. The receiving yardage twenty nine,

1177
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:11,719
Speaker 3: thirty nine, nineteen, twenty and twenty four, so he's beat

1178
00:51:11,760 --> 00:51:14,560
Speaker 3: it three out of five games and the two misses

1179
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:17,400
Speaker 3: were by one and a half and half a point.

1180
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:21,400
Speaker 3: You know, know, Henry Ruggs, They've got to go somewhere

1181
00:51:21,480 --> 00:51:25,600
Speaker 3: with the ball here, and maybe more important, Jalen Richard

1182
00:51:25,760 --> 00:51:29,920
Speaker 3: was a healthy scratch last week. That might be one

1183
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:32,319
Speaker 3: of those where I wait to bet this until I

1184
00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:36,600
Speaker 3: see the inactives and see whether Jalen Richard is active.

1185
00:51:36,680 --> 00:51:42,400
Speaker 3: But they have made more of a concerted effort post Gruden.

1186
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 3: It seems like to get Jacob's back involved in the

1187
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:48,600
Speaker 3: passing game, and we know he has the skill set

1188
00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:51,239
Speaker 3: to do it right. And that's been kind of dismaying

1189
00:51:51,320 --> 00:51:54,719
Speaker 3: for these Josh Jacobs investors in fantasy that he's just

1190
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 3: been this between the tackle sledgehammer and has not been

1191
00:51:59,120 --> 00:52:02,400
Speaker 3: allowed to show off the versatility we know he has.

1192
00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:06,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, it does seem like, you know, the

1193
00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:08,719
Speaker 1: defensive philosophy right now is take away Darren Waller and

1194
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:10,480
Speaker 1: you know, if you got to go underneath, do it.

1195
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:13,920
Speaker 1: But they'll let that happen. Yeah, you know what, Pat,

1196
00:52:13,280 --> 00:52:16,279
Speaker 1: I didn't even think about it. I didn't even think

1197
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:18,160
Speaker 1: about it, and I think that that's a good one.

1198
00:52:18,360 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 1: Talk me into it.

1199
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 4: I love it. Okay, that is a good one.

1200
00:52:21,239 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 1: By the way, I will say, just if you're here

1201
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:24,319
Speaker 1: and you ask a question, I'm going to put it up.

1202
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:25,920
Speaker 1: This is a big one, Pat, for the last game

1203
00:52:25,960 --> 00:52:28,880
Speaker 1: that we missed. Michael Fuller wants to know whether we

1204
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:31,879
Speaker 1: like plus money Kiro Santos over one and a half

1205
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:35,040
Speaker 1: field goals undraftings. Look, you get plus money, I'm okay

1206
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:38,120
Speaker 1: with it. You're indoors, you know it's fine with me.

1207
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:40,719
Speaker 1: You really really gotta love betting props if you are

1208
00:52:40,719 --> 00:52:44,680
Speaker 1: going in here and betting over unders on field goals made.

1209
00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 4: But any thoughts on.

1210
00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:48,279
Speaker 2: That Pat Michael might have.

1211
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:50,600
Speaker 3: He might be onto something here, because I mean, are

1212
00:52:50,840 --> 00:52:54,200
Speaker 3: we going to bet on Andy Dalton the convert touchdowns

1213
00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:57,600
Speaker 3: when they get it into the red zone? Like tending

1214
00:52:57,600 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 3: to fade Andy Dalton in those situations? Oh yeah, Plus

1215
00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 3: we know, uh, the weather's not going to be a factor.

1216
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:06,360
Speaker 3: I'm kind of with my he might have talked me

1217
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 3: into that one.

1218
00:53:07,120 --> 00:53:07,919
Speaker 2: I like that one.

1219
00:53:08,000 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 1: Actually, I hadn't thought about it whatsoever, Michael. If I'm

1220
00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:14,440
Speaker 1: being honest, I did not consider kicker props, but yeah,

1221
00:53:14,760 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 1: you know what and on DraftKings, I'm gonna I'm gonna

1222
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:19,000
Speaker 1: trail you with that, Michael, So make sure to hit

1223
00:53:19,080 --> 00:53:21,040
Speaker 1: us up on Twitter if we hit that one, because

1224
00:53:21,040 --> 00:53:22,680
Speaker 1: I do like it. You're write in a controlled environment.

1225
00:53:22,840 --> 00:53:26,160
Speaker 1: And yeah, receiving arts for Jacob's on Fando, it's nineteen

1226
00:53:26,200 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 1: and a half, Thatt, What is that the line that

1227
00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:30,440
Speaker 1: you saw as well? Or do you have a worst line?

1228
00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:34,760
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't have it in front of me, Dan, Sorry, okay.

1229
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:36,120
Speaker 1: No, no, no, whatever your line was, That's why I

1230
00:53:36,120 --> 00:53:37,600
Speaker 1: didn't know what you took the over at Oh.

1231
00:53:37,520 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 2: Wait, wait wait, I'm sorry.

1232
00:53:38,760 --> 00:53:40,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Jacob's line.

1233
00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:43,160
Speaker 2: Oh, the Jacobs line twenty and a half. Yeah, so sorry,

1234
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:45,759
Speaker 2: I thought you were talking about the Santos line. My bad, bad.

1235
00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:47,759
Speaker 1: Now, if I thought you had the Santos line at

1236
00:53:47,800 --> 00:53:50,600
Speaker 1: your disposal, Pat, you would be the regular co host

1237
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:53,319
Speaker 1: of this podcast, because I don't know too many people

1238
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 1: who have it.

1239
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:54,799
Speaker 4: I was not expecting that.

1240
00:53:55,200 --> 00:53:57,200
Speaker 1: No, I meant the Josh Jacobs line again, because what

1241
00:53:57,360 --> 00:53:59,160
Speaker 1: on the prop beat cheet Chi, what shows you is

1242
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:01,680
Speaker 1: the best of alb a line in the market per

1243
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:03,960
Speaker 1: book so at Fandals actually nineteen and a half. So

1244
00:54:04,000 --> 00:54:06,200
Speaker 1: that's even better if you can bet on fandle even

1245
00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 1: a little bit more of an edge anything else.

1246
00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:10,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, let me add one more, Dan, and I know

1247
00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:14,840
Speaker 3: that our the betting sheet loves this one. Is the

1248
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:17,880
Speaker 3: Derek Carr over to sixty eight and a half. It

1249
00:54:17,960 --> 00:54:20,640
Speaker 3: just seems kind of low. I mean, he's six and

1250
00:54:20,680 --> 00:54:24,799
Speaker 3: four against that number this year. Maybe it's because he's

1251
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:28,080
Speaker 3: zero and two on his last two. The weird thing is, wait,

1252
00:54:28,120 --> 00:54:30,400
Speaker 3: what did I say? I said two hundred and sixty

1253
00:54:30,400 --> 00:54:32,480
Speaker 3: eight and a half. That's what it was at yesterday

1254
00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:35,400
Speaker 3: on DraftKings. Now it's down to two sixty four and

1255
00:54:35,480 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 3: a half. It's four it's two sixty three and a

1256
00:54:38,080 --> 00:54:38,800
Speaker 3: half on Fantoms.

1257
00:54:38,800 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 2: Oh my god, So it's moved down five yards since.

1258
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:42,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, that works.

1259
00:54:42,520 --> 00:54:44,240
Speaker 2: And again Pat, that's not unusual.

1260
00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:46,719
Speaker 1: I mean you and I bet props a lot, and

1261
00:54:46,920 --> 00:54:48,919
Speaker 1: I take a pretty close look at them now when

1262
00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:50,920
Speaker 1: I get into it, because I have to recommend them always.

1263
00:54:50,920 --> 00:54:54,000
Speaker 1: On Sunday, I will recommend things on Saturday night. Pat,

1264
00:54:54,080 --> 00:54:55,960
Speaker 1: on Saturday night, I will make my list for our

1265
00:54:55,960 --> 00:54:59,080
Speaker 1: Sunday morning livestream, and it will move four yards for

1266
00:54:59,160 --> 00:55:02,879
Speaker 1: running backs six yards for passing yards like they move

1267
00:55:02,960 --> 00:55:03,960
Speaker 1: pretty significant, right.

1268
00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:06,120
Speaker 2: It doesn't take a lot to move these lines.

1269
00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:07,880
Speaker 1: Not at all, not at all, So you are right.

1270
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:09,879
Speaker 1: So yeah, our propat chi Chie, that is the one

1271
00:55:09,880 --> 00:55:12,239
Speaker 1: that they like a lot. They haven't projected for two

1272
00:55:12,320 --> 00:55:14,000
Speaker 1: ninety four, so you agree with this. Let me pull

1273
00:55:14,040 --> 00:55:16,279
Speaker 1: up my so because I you know, Pat, I don't know, man,

1274
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:19,280
Speaker 1: the Raiders often scares me man with the passing offense

1275
00:55:19,320 --> 00:55:19,680
Speaker 1: a little bit.

1276
00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:21,399
Speaker 4: Let me look at my projection. But tell me why

1277
00:55:21,400 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 4: you like that one.

1278
00:55:22,600 --> 00:55:24,640
Speaker 3: Uh well, it's good just because it's a low bar

1279
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:27,680
Speaker 3: for a guy who I mean, Car is what top.

1280
00:55:28,000 --> 00:55:30,399
Speaker 3: I know he's top five and in passing yards per

1281
00:55:30,440 --> 00:55:32,640
Speaker 3: game at one point I think he was number two.

1282
00:55:33,200 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 3: I don't know if he's still there after two kind

1283
00:55:35,120 --> 00:55:39,239
Speaker 3: of slowish games, but yeah, I mean we know they're

1284
00:55:39,239 --> 00:55:42,839
Speaker 3: not gonna they like they don't have the running game

1285
00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:45,840
Speaker 3: to just lean on the run the entire game against

1286
00:55:45,880 --> 00:55:46,640
Speaker 3: the Cowboys, like.

1287
00:55:46,600 --> 00:55:48,680
Speaker 2: They've they've got to take to the air here.

1288
00:55:49,080 --> 00:55:52,360
Speaker 3: And you know, even though they don't have that vertical

1289
00:55:52,400 --> 00:55:56,000
Speaker 3: threat with Rugs no longer in the lineup, like, I.

1290
00:55:56,000 --> 00:56:00,200
Speaker 2: Still think Car can get there. Yes, yeah, And plus.

1291
00:56:01,560 --> 00:56:05,319
Speaker 3: I mean we talked about the Raiders being you know,

1292
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:10,680
Speaker 3: deserved underdogs in this game. Yeah, so we are guessing

1293
00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:13,320
Speaker 3: that it's probably going to be a past friendly game script.

1294
00:56:13,880 --> 00:56:16,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, and I do think that the fact

1295
00:56:16,600 --> 00:56:20,880
Speaker 1: that they're you know, I want to take a a

1296
00:56:21,000 --> 00:56:23,600
Speaker 1: rushing prop over for the Cowboys for one of them,

1297
00:56:23,640 --> 00:56:25,880
Speaker 1: but it's Zeke's so banged. I mean, he's Roger sixty

1298
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:28,839
Speaker 1: and a half. Pat, I feel like that's an over.

1299
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:31,719
Speaker 1: But I don't feel good about his health, Like I

1300
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:34,040
Speaker 1: feel like he's always constantly leaving. He obviously had a

1301
00:56:34,040 --> 00:56:35,719
Speaker 1: little bit of an ankle thing last time, and he

1302
00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:38,200
Speaker 1: came in, so I could see Tony Poller going over

1303
00:56:38,239 --> 00:56:39,239
Speaker 1: his thirty nine and a half.

1304
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:41,480
Speaker 4: But I just I don't feel that comfortable with it overall.

1305
00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:47,040
Speaker 3: Do you No, Yeah, it's as you mentioned, It does

1306
00:56:47,120 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 3: feel like we should be taking some sort of over

1307
00:56:49,640 --> 00:56:53,600
Speaker 3: on the Cowboys rushing props and it just but like

1308
00:56:53,640 --> 00:56:56,120
Speaker 3: I can't do it on Zeke knowing who's banged up.

1309
00:56:56,400 --> 00:56:58,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, all right, any other one from this game?

1310
00:56:58,680 --> 00:56:59,759
Speaker 1: You want to move to the final one?

1311
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:01,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's go to the final one.

1312
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:04,120
Speaker 4: Bills at the Saints. What do you like here? Pat?

1313
00:57:05,480 --> 00:57:09,440
Speaker 3: I like that Taysom Hill anytime touchdown then at plus

1314
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:15,000
Speaker 3: five hundred, and especially with the uncertain injury status of

1315
00:57:15,480 --> 00:57:19,360
Speaker 3: Camara and Ingram, like just one way for them to

1316
00:57:19,720 --> 00:57:25,040
Speaker 3: punch the ball in perhaps, And really that's about it.

1317
00:57:25,280 --> 00:57:26,959
Speaker 3: I'm not loving the prompts in this game.

1318
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:30,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a great one. Actually, I really really like

1319
00:57:30,880 --> 00:57:33,080
Speaker 1: that one. I'm the one that I'm eyeing a little bit.

1320
00:57:33,120 --> 00:57:34,800
Speaker 1: And again our prep at Chichi does not list this

1321
00:57:34,880 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 1: is great. It basically has it right on projections. I

1322
00:57:37,280 --> 00:57:41,640
Speaker 1: lean over on Josh Allen rushing yards and part of

1323
00:57:41,640 --> 00:57:43,120
Speaker 1: it is it's thirty two and a half for him.

1324
00:57:43,360 --> 00:57:44,760
Speaker 1: And part of the reason why I do pat is

1325
00:57:44,760 --> 00:57:46,240
Speaker 1: because you know, you hear all this coming out of

1326
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:49,160
Speaker 1: Buffalo and they're like, you know what, we've got to

1327
00:57:49,200 --> 00:57:50,800
Speaker 1: take care of it, Like we don't. We don't have

1328
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:52,520
Speaker 1: to go crazy, we won't have to take deep shots

1329
00:57:52,520 --> 00:57:55,320
Speaker 1: like we have to avoid turnovers, especially against the Saints

1330
00:57:55,360 --> 00:57:56,680
Speaker 1: that don't have an explosive offense.

1331
00:57:56,880 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 4: To me, that strikes me is when Alan.

1332
00:57:58,600 --> 00:58:01,760
Speaker 1: Feels like he is in or he feels like it's

1333
00:58:01,760 --> 00:58:03,400
Speaker 1: a tight window, He's not going to take the chance

1334
00:58:03,400 --> 00:58:03,919
Speaker 1: in this game.

1335
00:58:04,040 --> 00:58:05,800
Speaker 4: He's just going to take off and run. We just

1336
00:58:05,800 --> 00:58:06,720
Speaker 4: saw Jalen.

1337
00:58:06,480 --> 00:58:10,520
Speaker 1: Hurts absolutely destroy the Saints right from a rushing perspective.

1338
00:58:10,560 --> 00:58:12,680
Speaker 1: So again, it's not one that our Propat chi Chie

1339
00:58:13,160 --> 00:58:13,919
Speaker 1: necessarily likes.

1340
00:58:13,920 --> 00:58:14,960
Speaker 4: It doesn't have an edge.

1341
00:58:15,000 --> 00:58:18,439
Speaker 1: It has over by point zero six rushing yards, which

1342
00:58:18,480 --> 00:58:21,080
Speaker 1: is fine, but I lean that way. Pat Taysom Mill

1343
00:58:21,160 --> 00:58:23,400
Speaker 1: scoring touch actually is a great call, and it's now

1344
00:58:23,440 --> 00:58:25,480
Speaker 1: my favorite prop of that game. But I do lean

1345
00:58:25,480 --> 00:58:27,800
Speaker 1: if anything, Josh Allen over rushing yards thirty two and

1346
00:58:27,840 --> 00:58:28,240
Speaker 1: a half.

1347
00:58:28,720 --> 00:58:32,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, that makes sense to me, especially after the Jalen

1348
00:58:32,080 --> 00:58:33,919
Speaker 3: Hurts blow up last week.

1349
00:58:34,200 --> 00:58:36,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think just everything sort of fits for it.

1350
00:58:36,240 --> 00:58:39,200
Speaker 1: All right, that's it for our Best Bets podcast. Pat,

1351
00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:42,240
Speaker 1: your dog was great, Thank him for uh for keeping that.

1352
00:58:42,280 --> 00:58:44,640
Speaker 1: Thank you for your job. THEO, good job, THEO. I

1353
00:58:44,680 --> 00:58:46,360
Speaker 1: know it's a very busy time for you. Thank you

1354
00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:49,040
Speaker 1: everybody to join us here today live again on our

1355
00:58:49,040 --> 00:58:52,400
Speaker 1: YouTube channel. Don't forget to subscribe to YouTube dot com

1356
00:58:52,440 --> 00:58:55,240
Speaker 1: slash Betting Pros, make sure you don't miss our content,

1357
00:58:55,240 --> 00:58:56,440
Speaker 1: and then go by the way to Betting Pros dot

1358
00:58:56,440 --> 00:58:58,480
Speaker 1: com slash helmet where you can win a sign Saque

1359
00:58:58,560 --> 00:59:01,400
Speaker 1: Barkley helmet just for subscribing just to recap our best

1360
00:59:01,400 --> 00:59:03,600
Speaker 1: bets in addition to the props pat you like the

1361
00:59:03,640 --> 00:59:06,360
Speaker 1: Lions getting three from the Bears, the Raiders and the

1362
00:59:06,400 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 1: Cowboys under fifty and a half, and the Rams getting

1363
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:12,000
Speaker 1: one from the Packers. I like the Steelers getting four

1364
00:59:12,000 --> 00:59:14,840
Speaker 1: and a half from the Bengals in Cincinnati, the Texans

1365
00:59:14,880 --> 00:59:17,040
Speaker 1: laying two and a half to the Jets and the Titans,

1366
00:59:17,080 --> 00:59:18,840
Speaker 1: and the Patriots under forty four.

1367
00:59:19,040 --> 00:59:21,280
Speaker 4: I hope everybody has a wonderful Thanksgiving.

1368
00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:24,360
Speaker 1: Enjoy the food, enjoy the family, enjoy the football, Enjoy

1369
00:59:24,400 --> 00:59:27,120
Speaker 1: your Sunday as well. We'll be back as always next week,

1370
00:59:27,480 --> 00:59:30,120
Speaker 1: taking an early look at the Week thirteen NFL lines.

1371
00:59:30,160 --> 00:59:32,360
Speaker 1: As we just fly through the season, I will talk

1372
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:32,720
Speaker 1: to you though,