WEBVTT - Fed Rate Cut Debate; McConnell Backs TikTok Divestment Bill

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here

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<v Speaker 2>are the stories we're following today.

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<v Speaker 3>We begin in the world of sports. The University of

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<v Speaker 3>Connecticut is on top of the world.

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<v Speaker 4>It is a Yukon coronation, the Husky's march history back

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<v Speaker 4>to back national champions.

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<v Speaker 3>That call courtesy of TBS. The Huskies did win the

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<v Speaker 3>NCAA men's title over fellow number one seed Produce seventy

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<v Speaker 3>five to sixty. And Yukon's not the only one we

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<v Speaker 3>have to congratulate this morning. A special shout out to

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<v Speaker 3>Whitney wolf Herd, the founder and executive chair of Bumble,

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<v Speaker 3>won the annual Bloomberg Brackets for a Cause with a

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<v Speaker 3>score of one hundred and seventy one, and her prize

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<v Speaker 3>money will go to the charity of her choice, Baby

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<v Speaker 3>to Baby. We will have much more on the big

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<v Speaker 3>game in sports in a few minutes.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, Nathan, will we now turn to be a

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<v Speaker 2>of me and Former Federal Reserve policymaker James Buellerd says

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<v Speaker 2>his base case is three interest rate cuts.

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<v Speaker 3>This year.

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<v Speaker 2>He cited successful policy in a strong economy but said

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<v Speaker 2>more data is still needed before multiple cuts.

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<v Speaker 5>Some people are saying that the next report will lead

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<v Speaker 5>to core PC being only two point six percent on

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<v Speaker 5>a twelve month basis, So you're starting to get close enough.

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<v Speaker 5>I think you have enough data in hand right now

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<v Speaker 5>to justify the first rate cut. Maybe not a whole

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<v Speaker 5>string of ray cuts, but you could certainly justify the

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<v Speaker 5>first raycut now based on the data that they have.

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<v Speaker 2>And former Saint Louis FED president James Bueller's outlook echoes

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<v Speaker 2>the effed's messaging on monetary policy this year, but contrasts

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<v Speaker 2>with growing market expectations for fewer cuts. Here the full

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<v Speaker 2>conversation on the Bloomberg Talks podcast feed, available wherever you

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<v Speaker 2>get your podcasts.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Karen, there are even some officials seeing the potential

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<v Speaker 3>for no cuts at all this year, among them Minneapolis

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<v Speaker 3>FED President Neil Cash cut sor.

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<v Speaker 6>My base case scenario is that inflation will continue to

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<v Speaker 6>fall this year, and I jotted down in March that

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<v Speaker 6>we would have two infrast rate cuts twenty five basis

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<v Speaker 6>points over the course of this year, So that was

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<v Speaker 6>my base case scenario. Then I explained, if we don't

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<v Speaker 6>see any progress on inflation and inflation move sideways, then

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<v Speaker 6>that would make me question why would we cut interest rates.

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<v Speaker 3>Minneapolis Fed President Neil Keshkari made those comments yesterday at

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<v Speaker 3>an event at the University of Montana.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the market waits for rapcuts, Nathan. The whole country

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<v Speaker 2>is going to have to wait another twenty one years

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<v Speaker 2>to witness what we saw yesterday. Millions from Texas to

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<v Speaker 2>Maine were dazzled by a total solar eclipse. Just about

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<v Speaker 2>everyone in North America got to see at least part

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<v Speaker 2>of the sun blocked out. These people had a clear

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<v Speaker 2>view in Niagara Falls.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh my god, it's so cool.

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<v Speaker 7>Holes through the side, unbelievable. My aunt actually came here

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<v Speaker 7>from California, so.

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<v Speaker 1>Glad, I said, I'm going to come here and it's

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely changing.

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<v Speaker 7>And I'm a science teacher, so it's my bucket list.

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<v Speaker 2>And the path of totality for this eclipse crossed through

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<v Speaker 2>several major cities including Dallas, Indianapolis, Cleveland, and Buffalo, New York,

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<v Speaker 2>and estimated forty four million people live on the track

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<v Speaker 2>that saw the moon pass in front of the Sun

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<v Speaker 2>for a full four minutes and twenty eight seconds.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it was quite the show. Karen Well, Now we

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<v Speaker 3>turn to the latest legal developments involving Donald Trump. A

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<v Speaker 3>New York appeals judge has rejected the former president's attempt

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<v Speaker 3>to delay his hush money criminal trial. Bloomberg Zed Baxter

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<v Speaker 3>has the details.

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<v Speaker 4>So this means the jury selection is on the dock

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<v Speaker 4>at to begin next Monday. The fifteenth Appeals Court Justice

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<v Speaker 4>Elizabeth Gonzalez denying the attempt to not start the trial

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<v Speaker 4>on time, rejecting the emergency state. Now, Trump's attorneys are

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<v Speaker 4>also challenging the gag order prohibiting him from making comments

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<v Speaker 4>about Judge Merschawan's family, as well the judge rule that

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<v Speaker 4>potential jurors will be asked whether they belong to groups

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<v Speaker 4>like Antifa and QAnon, as well as whether they've been

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<v Speaker 4>to rallies in support of or in opposition to Trump

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<v Speaker 4>at Baxter Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, ed, Thanks, Well, there's a new development in

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<v Speaker 2>the January sixth case against former President Trump. Special counsel

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<v Speaker 2>Jack Smith is asking the Supreme Court to reject Trump's

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<v Speaker 2>immunity claims and allow a speedy trial Overs' efforts to

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<v Speaker 2>overturn the twenty twenty election. The justices will hear arguments

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<v Speaker 2>on April twenty fifth in our schedule to rule by

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<v Speaker 2>the end of June. Smith needs a clear cut victory

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<v Speaker 2>to have any chance of putting Trump on trial before

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<v Speaker 2>the November election.

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<v Speaker 3>Karen, It's been a rough couple of days for former

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<v Speaker 3>President Trump. On Wall Street. Shares of Trump Media and

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<v Speaker 3>Technology Group, the parent company of his Truth social platform,

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<v Speaker 3>have lost thirty six percent since late last month. More

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<v Speaker 3>on that from Bloomberg Stug Prisner.

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<v Speaker 8>For Trump Media, some two point eight billion dollars in

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<v Speaker 8>market value has been wiped out since March twenty sixth,

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<v Speaker 8>and for Trump himself, his paper windfall has been reduced

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<v Speaker 8>by some one point six billion dollars. His stake is

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<v Speaker 8>now worth roughly two point nine billion. Now for Trump

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<v Speaker 8>to capture a benefit, he'll have to wait six months

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<v Speaker 8>before he can sell shares under a lock up agreement.

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<v Speaker 8>Trump Media now has a market cap of roughly five

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<v Speaker 8>billion dollars. Last year, this company generated just four point

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<v Speaker 8>one million in revenue in New York. I'm Doug Prisner,

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<v Speaker 8>Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, Doug, thanks from Wall Street.

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<v Speaker 7>To Washington.

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<v Speaker 2>Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is weighing in on TikTok,

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<v Speaker 2>and that could spark the effort to pass a bill

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<v Speaker 2>that would effectively ban the video sharing app in the

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<v Speaker 2>United States. Bloomberg j Amy Morris reports from the nation's capital.

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<v Speaker 1>Senator McConnell says requiring ByteDance to divest from the video

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<v Speaker 1>sharing app is squarely within established constitutional President on the

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<v Speaker 1>Senate Flora McConnell says China's influence has been baked in

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<v Speaker 1>from the beginning.

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<v Speaker 9>One hundred and seventy million Americans are active users from

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<v Speaker 9>a social media platform at the People's Republic of China.

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<v Speaker 9>Treachs as a tool of surveillance and proper.

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<v Speaker 1>Caranda McConnell backs a bipart as an effort to pass

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<v Speaker 1>the bill forcing the China based parent company to sell TikTok.

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<v Speaker 1>Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer has yet to commit to

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<v Speaker 1>bringing the bill to the floor in Washington. Amy Morris,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio, All right.

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<v Speaker 7>Amy, thank you.

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<v Speaker 3>In company news, Tesla has reached a settlement on the

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<v Speaker 3>eve of its highest profiled trial yet over a crash

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<v Speaker 3>blamed on auto Pilot. That's the driver assistance system that

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<v Speaker 3>Elon Musk has built as crucial to his pursuit of

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<v Speaker 3>self driving cars. Terms of the settlement were not disclosed.

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<v Speaker 2>Meanwhile, Nathan General Motors CRU's autonomous driving business is preparing

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<v Speaker 2>to resume testing its robotaxis with safety drivers in Phoenix.

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<v Speaker 2>Sources AGM is set to announce and begin the testing

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<v Speaker 2>as early as today. Analysts say this marks an important

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<v Speaker 2>step in GM's attempts to resume service after grounding its

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<v Speaker 2>fleet to last year. And it's time now for a

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<v Speaker 2>look at some of the other stories making news in

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<v Speaker 2>New York and around the world, and we're joined by

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Michael Barr.

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<v Speaker 8>Michael, good Morning, Good morning, Karenny.

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<v Speaker 10>Israeli leaders plan is set for military operations in the

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<v Speaker 10>southern Gaza city of Rafa, where more than a million

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<v Speaker 10>civilians have gathered. State Department spokes from Matthew Miller said

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<v Speaker 10>the Biden administration is strongly urging Israel against the operation.

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<v Speaker 11>We have made clear to Israel that we think a

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<v Speaker 11>full scale military invasion of Rafa would have an enormously

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<v Speaker 11>harmful effect on those civilians, and then it would ultimately

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<v Speaker 11>hurt Israel's securities.

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<v Speaker 10>Meanwhile, Paul Francis met with the family of hostages at

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<v Speaker 10>the Vatican still being held by hamas evil.

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<v Speaker 7>He called them bad guys and evil, and he was

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<v Speaker 7>very clear that the hostages need to come home.

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<v Speaker 2>I think you know we can all agree.

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<v Speaker 10>And Turkey announced restrictions on exports to Israel. The list

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<v Speaker 10>includes more than fifty items, including construction materials. Turkey said

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<v Speaker 10>it was taking measures against Israel after it opposed planned

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<v Speaker 10>Turkish aid drip over the Guyza Strip. Three people are dead,

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<v Speaker 10>including the gunman, after a shooting inside the Las Vegas

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<v Speaker 10>law office. Police say it was just after ten am

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<v Speaker 10>local time when shots rang out in Attorney Dennis Prince's

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<v Speaker 10>law office. Lieutenant Jason Johansson with the Las Vegas Police

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<v Speaker 10>says the shooter killed himself after shooting the two victims.

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<v Speaker 4>One deceased victim is a female in our thirties, another

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<v Speaker 4>one is a.

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<v Speaker 1>Male in his fifties.

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<v Speaker 10>Our suspect is also.

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<v Speaker 11>Deceased hereund scene, and he is a male in his seventies.

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<v Speaker 10>Lieutenant Johansson says the victims were apparently the shooters intended

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<v Speaker 10>target President Joe Biden and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kasheita

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<v Speaker 10>planned form a consul on defense industries and allow shipyard

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<v Speaker 10>workers in Japan to perform more maintenance work on US

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<v Speaker 10>Navy ships as they look to shore up their military alliance.

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<v Speaker 10>Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you

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<v Speaker 10>want it with the Bloomberg News Now Michael Barr, this

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<v Speaker 10>is bloum hern all.

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<v Speaker 7>Right, Michael Burr.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks, that's time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update with

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<v Speaker 2>John stash Hour.

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<v Speaker 12>John, Thanks, carav Remarkable what the Yukon Huskies have done

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<v Speaker 12>the last two years, back to back national championships, first

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<v Speaker 12>to do it since Florida in two thousand and six

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<v Speaker 12>and seven. So they won a dozen consecutive games and

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<v Speaker 12>not one of them particularly close. In Phoenix, Yukon won

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<v Speaker 12>the first half with Purdue thirty six to thirty, won

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<v Speaker 12>the second half thirty nine to thirty. Won the game

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<v Speaker 12>seventy five to sixty. Did it as usual with balance.

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<v Speaker 12>Tristan Newton led the way this time twenty points seven

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<v Speaker 12>as says five rebounds. Coach Dan Hurley asked to compare

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<v Speaker 12>this title with last year.

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<v Speaker 13>Maybe it feels a little bit better because it's like

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<v Speaker 13>the last thing, knowing how great this team's been, we've

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<v Speaker 13>taken you know, you know, we've worn the everything shirt

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<v Speaker 13>the whole year, and we just everyone in this organization

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<v Speaker 13>gave everything so that we could win everything.

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<v Speaker 12>This year, Perdue had its best season in forty four years.

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<v Speaker 12>Zach EDI's career ends. Two time National Player the year

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<v Speaker 12>last night defeat, he scored thirty seven. We'll see what

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<v Speaker 12>the ratings were, but overall viewership almost certainly not what

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<v Speaker 12>the women got. Eighteen points seven million tuned in for

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<v Speaker 12>that South Carolina Iowa game. The last five years, only

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<v Speaker 12>football and the Olympics have had more viewers in Atlanta

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<v Speaker 12>the honor of the late Henry Aaron. It was the

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<v Speaker 12>fiftieth anniversary of his home run to break baby both

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<v Speaker 12>record and then the Mets Brandon Nimo made like Aaron,

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<v Speaker 12>hit two, had four hits, drove in five the Mets

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<v Speaker 12>with a come from behind eight to seven win over

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<v Speaker 12>the Brains. Yankees also used the long ball, a pair

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<v Speaker 12>of three run shots in the fourth and eight, first

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<v Speaker 12>Anthony Volpe, then Juan Soto his first in the Bronx.

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<v Speaker 12>Yanks all over the Marlins seven nothing. The Yanks are

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<v Speaker 12>ninety two, the Marlins are one and ten. Shoeyotani his

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<v Speaker 12>third home run as a Dodger, came in a four

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<v Speaker 12>to two win at Minnesota. Mike Trout, already his fifth

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<v Speaker 12>of the season, Angels over Tampa Bay seven to one.

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<v Speaker 12>The Nationals beat the Giants eight to one. Blitz still

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<v Speaker 12>roughed up this Giants debut. Nickson Chicago Tonight at the

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<v Speaker 12>Ubs Arena. It's the Rangers and Islanders, if possible playoff

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<v Speaker 12>preview John Stashedward, Bloomberg Sports.

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<v Speaker 2>Karen, all right, John, thank you. Is there a pretty

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<v Speaker 2>much little change this morning in the ten year treasury

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<v Speaker 2>yield is at four point thirty nine percent.

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<v Speaker 10>Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, and.

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<v Speaker 4>Around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 4>Business app.

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<v Speaker 3>This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. At

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<v Speaker 3>first there was several rate cuts. Now it might be

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<v Speaker 3>just one or none at all. Investors are trying to

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<v Speaker 3>figure out just how much, if at all, the Federal

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<v Speaker 3>Reserve will cut rates this year. Began twenty twenty four

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<v Speaker 3>expecting several cuts throughout the year. Well, Former Saint Louis

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<v Speaker 3>FED President James Bullard says he still thinks we can

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<v Speaker 3>see multiple cuts this year. He sat down with Bloomberg's

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<v Speaker 3>hustling to Amin on the sidelines of HSBC's Global Investment

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<v Speaker 3>summit in Hong Kong. Let's go now to part of

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<v Speaker 3>that conversation.

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<v Speaker 5>I think at this point you should probably take the

0:11:55.280 --> 0:11:58.320
<v Speaker 5>Committee on the Chair at face value. I think their

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<v Speaker 5>best guest right now is still three cuts this year,

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<v Speaker 5>and of course the data can go one way or another,

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<v Speaker 5>but that's the base case. I think it's been a

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<v Speaker 5>very successful policy. The policy rate was increased a lot

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<v Speaker 5>during twenty twenty two, and inflation fell quite a bit

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<v Speaker 5>in the second half of twenty twenty three. Last year,

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<v Speaker 5>at this time, core PC inflation would have been two

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<v Speaker 5>hundred basis points higher than it is right now. That's

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<v Speaker 5>the committee's favorite measure. So you're looking at a very

0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:37.959
<v Speaker 5>successful policy with a pretty strong economy. So a lot

0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:38.840
<v Speaker 5>of things going.

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<v Speaker 7>Right for the FED right now. So Powell has been

0:12:41.640 --> 0:12:42.280
<v Speaker 7>right so far.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I think he's been right so far, and the

0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:49.120
<v Speaker 5>Committee's been right so far to pursue an aggressive strategy

0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:52.560
<v Speaker 5>to bring inflation back to target. Most of that was

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<v Speaker 5>in twenty twenty two, and then you bore the fruit

0:12:55.760 --> 0:12:58.200
<v Speaker 5>in twenty twenty three and into twenty twenty four.

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<v Speaker 14>Here we talked about how so the FED is data dependent?

0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:05.040
<v Speaker 7>Paul himself says he is data dependent. What exactly does that.

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<v Speaker 14>Mean and which data in particular is he looking at

0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:09.440
<v Speaker 14>should be looking at?

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<v Speaker 5>I think right now, I think it's mostly the inflation data,

0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:16.120
<v Speaker 5>because on the real side of the economy, things are

0:13:16.120 --> 0:13:19.080
<v Speaker 5>going very well, and you can argue about why, but

0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:22.200
<v Speaker 5>they're going very well. The Committee doesn't really have to

0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:25.400
<v Speaker 5>worry about that side of the mandate right now. All

0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:27.960
<v Speaker 5>they've got to worry about is getting inflation back to

0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:31.200
<v Speaker 5>the two percent target, and they've come a long ways back.

0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:34.679
<v Speaker 5>Already was four point eight percent now two point eight

0:13:34.760 --> 0:13:39.200
<v Speaker 5>percent core PC inflation on a twelve month basis. That

0:13:39.280 --> 0:13:42.040
<v Speaker 5>means you've only got eight tenths of one percent to go,

0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:47.280
<v Speaker 5>And some people are saying that the next report will

0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:50.160
<v Speaker 5>lead to core PC being only two point six percent

0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:53.120
<v Speaker 5>on a twelve month basis, So you're starting to get

0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:56.160
<v Speaker 5>close enough. I think you have enough data in hand

0:13:56.240 --> 0:14:01.440
<v Speaker 5>right now to justify the first break. Maybe not a

0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:03.840
<v Speaker 5>whole string of ray cuts, but you could certainly justify

0:14:03.880 --> 0:14:06.679
<v Speaker 5>the first ray cut now based on the data that

0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:06.960
<v Speaker 5>they have.

0:14:07.559 --> 0:14:10.080
<v Speaker 14>We talk about how the US economy is very strong.

0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:13.120
<v Speaker 7>So would you say that the risk in the US

0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:14.280
<v Speaker 7>economy right now is.

0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:17.160
<v Speaker 14>Inflation and not growth? Fair to say that that's I

0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:20.520
<v Speaker 14>think that's right. Yeah, Why is the US economy so resilient?

0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:23.080
<v Speaker 14>I mean, not too long ago we were expecting a

0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:26.600
<v Speaker 14>recession one hundred percent or you know, priced in of

0:14:26.680 --> 0:14:27.240
<v Speaker 14>a recession.

0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:29.720
<v Speaker 7>Yes, here we are with a very resilient economy.

0:14:30.000 --> 0:14:30.240
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:33.400
<v Speaker 5>Last year, at this time, you had the bank failure

0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:37.280
<v Speaker 5>of a Silicon Valley bank and other banks, smaller banks

0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:41.600
<v Speaker 5>around the country. That was overinterpreted to mean that the

0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:44.920
<v Speaker 5>US was going into recession. I don't think it was

0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:51.760
<v Speaker 5>ever a good story to tell, because yes, their banks failed,

0:14:51.800 --> 0:14:55.480
<v Speaker 5>but they're only a small fragment of the total banking

0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:58.400
<v Speaker 5>and the total intermediation sector in the US economy. So

0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:04.560
<v Speaker 5>I think that card was overplayed. And not only did

0:15:04.560 --> 0:15:06.800
<v Speaker 5>the US not go into recession in the second half

0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:10.200
<v Speaker 5>of twenty twenty three, but the economy actually boomed in

0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:12.520
<v Speaker 5>the second half of twenty twenty three, so you really

0:15:12.560 --> 0:15:16.600
<v Speaker 5>got a very strong outcome and that has continued into

0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:19.680
<v Speaker 5>the first part of twenty twenty four. Here, although I

0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:22.160
<v Speaker 5>would say we're we're going to be closer to the

0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:25.280
<v Speaker 5>trend growth right now, not way above trend the way

0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:28.680
<v Speaker 5>we were during the last six months of twenty twenty three.

0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:31.760
<v Speaker 14>Some people talk about the US economy being a two

0:15:31.840 --> 0:15:32.720
<v Speaker 14>track economy.

0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:35.360
<v Speaker 7>What's the risk in that? What do you mean by

0:15:35.400 --> 0:15:38.000
<v Speaker 7>two tracks? There's some parts of the economy that's actually

0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:38.600
<v Speaker 7>very weak.

0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:44.680
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I think that's always the case, probably in any

0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:48.040
<v Speaker 5>really big economy. There are always some things that aren't

0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:51.680
<v Speaker 5>going so well, or some markets where there are problems.

0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:55.080
<v Speaker 5>But I think that it's very encouraging that the overall

0:15:55.160 --> 0:15:57.040
<v Speaker 5>picture is very strong for the US.

0:15:57.240 --> 0:15:58.400
<v Speaker 7>You took about the risk.

0:15:58.200 --> 0:16:02.440
<v Speaker 14>Of the fact possibly being behind target, behind the CoV

0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:06.080
<v Speaker 14>so to speak, how do you assess that risk that

0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:07.400
<v Speaker 14>it may be behind the CoV.

0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:11.760
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I don't think that this has really come into

0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:14.840
<v Speaker 5>view yet because things are going so well. So it's

0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:17.280
<v Speaker 5>a good problem to have. The economedy is doing well,

0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:22.800
<v Speaker 5>inflesh is coming down. But if you don't pay attention

0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:25.960
<v Speaker 5>to everything that could happen, you might weigh the probabilities

0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:29.160
<v Speaker 5>a little bit off. So it's maybe a minor problem

0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:31.560
<v Speaker 5>to have, but it's just something you keep an eye on.

0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:32.600
<v Speaker 5>In the monks, I haead.

0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:35.200
<v Speaker 3>That was former Saint Louis Fed President James Bullard speaking

0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:37.320
<v Speaker 3>with Bloomberg's Hustling to a Me and catch the full

0:16:37.360 --> 0:16:43.080
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