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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here

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Speaker 2: are the stories we're following today.

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Speaker 3: We begin in the world of sports. The University of

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Speaker 3: Connecticut is on top of the world.

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Speaker 4: It is a Yukon coronation, the Husky's march history back

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Speaker 4: to back national champions.

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Speaker 3: That call courtesy of TBS. The Huskies did win the

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Speaker 3: NCAA men's title over fellow number one seed Produce seventy

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Speaker 3: five to sixty. And Yukon's not the only one we

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Speaker 3: have to congratulate this morning. A special shout out to

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Speaker 3: Whitney wolf Herd, the founder and executive chair of Bumble,

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Speaker 3: won the annual Bloomberg Brackets for a Cause with a

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Speaker 3: score of one hundred and seventy one, and her prize

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Speaker 3: money will go to the charity of her choice, Baby

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Speaker 3: to Baby. We will have much more on the big

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Speaker 3: game in sports in a few minutes.

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Speaker 2: All right, Nathan, will we now turn to be a

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Speaker 2: of me and Former Federal Reserve policymaker James Buellerd says

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Speaker 2: his base case is three interest rate cuts.

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Speaker 3: This year.

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Speaker 2: He cited successful policy in a strong economy but said

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Speaker 2: more data is still needed before multiple cuts.

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Speaker 5: Some people are saying that the next report will lead

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Speaker 5: to core PC being only two point six percent on

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Speaker 5: a twelve month basis, So you're starting to get close enough.

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Speaker 5: I think you have enough data in hand right now

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Speaker 5: to justify the first rate cut. Maybe not a whole

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Speaker 5: string of ray cuts, but you could certainly justify the

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Speaker 5: first raycut now based on the data that they have.

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Speaker 2: And former Saint Louis FED president James Bueller's outlook echoes

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Speaker 2: the effed's messaging on monetary policy this year, but contrasts

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Speaker 2: with growing market expectations for fewer cuts. Here the full

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Speaker 2: conversation on the Bloomberg Talks podcast feed, available wherever you

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Speaker 2: get your podcasts.

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Speaker 3: Well, Karen, there are even some officials seeing the potential

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Speaker 3: for no cuts at all this year, among them Minneapolis

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Speaker 3: FED President Neil Cash cut sor.

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Speaker 6: My base case scenario is that inflation will continue to

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Speaker 6: fall this year, and I jotted down in March that

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Speaker 6: we would have two infrast rate cuts twenty five basis

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Speaker 6: points over the course of this year, So that was

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Speaker 6: my base case scenario. Then I explained, if we don't

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Speaker 6: see any progress on inflation and inflation move sideways, then

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Speaker 6: that would make me question why would we cut interest rates.

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Speaker 3: Minneapolis Fed President Neil Keshkari made those comments yesterday at

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Speaker 3: an event at the University of Montana.

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Speaker 2: Well, the market waits for rapcuts, Nathan. The whole country

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Speaker 2: is going to have to wait another twenty one years

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Speaker 2: to witness what we saw yesterday. Millions from Texas to

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Speaker 2: Maine were dazzled by a total solar eclipse. Just about

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Speaker 2: everyone in North America got to see at least part

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Speaker 2: of the sun blocked out. These people had a clear

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Speaker 2: view in Niagara Falls.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, it's so cool.

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Speaker 7: Holes through the side, unbelievable. My aunt actually came here

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Speaker 7: from California, so.

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Speaker 1: Glad, I said, I'm going to come here and it's

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Speaker 1: absolutely changing.

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Speaker 7: And I'm a science teacher, so it's my bucket list.

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Speaker 2: And the path of totality for this eclipse crossed through

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Speaker 2: several major cities including Dallas, Indianapolis, Cleveland, and Buffalo, New York,

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Speaker 2: and estimated forty four million people live on the track

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Speaker 2: that saw the moon pass in front of the Sun

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Speaker 2: for a full four minutes and twenty eight seconds.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it was quite the show. Karen Well, Now we

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Speaker 3: turn to the latest legal developments involving Donald Trump. A

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Speaker 3: New York appeals judge has rejected the former president's attempt

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Speaker 3: to delay his hush money criminal trial. Bloomberg Zed Baxter

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Speaker 3: has the details.

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Speaker 4: So this means the jury selection is on the dock

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Speaker 4: at to begin next Monday. The fifteenth Appeals Court Justice

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Speaker 4: Elizabeth Gonzalez denying the attempt to not start the trial

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Speaker 4: on time, rejecting the emergency state. Now, Trump's attorneys are

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Speaker 4: also challenging the gag order prohibiting him from making comments

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Speaker 4: about Judge Merschawan's family, as well the judge rule that

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Speaker 4: potential jurors will be asked whether they belong to groups

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Speaker 4: like Antifa and QAnon, as well as whether they've been

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Speaker 4: to rallies in support of or in opposition to Trump

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Speaker 4: at Baxter Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: All right, ed, Thanks, Well, there's a new development in

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Speaker 2: the January sixth case against former President Trump. Special counsel

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Speaker 2: Jack Smith is asking the Supreme Court to reject Trump's

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Speaker 2: immunity claims and allow a speedy trial Overs' efforts to

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Speaker 2: overturn the twenty twenty election. The justices will hear arguments

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Speaker 2: on April twenty fifth in our schedule to rule by

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Speaker 2: the end of June. Smith needs a clear cut victory

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Speaker 2: to have any chance of putting Trump on trial before

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Speaker 2: the November election.

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Speaker 3: Karen, It's been a rough couple of days for former

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Speaker 3: President Trump. On Wall Street. Shares of Trump Media and

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Speaker 3: Technology Group, the parent company of his Truth social platform,

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Speaker 3: have lost thirty six percent since late last month. More

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Speaker 3: on that from Bloomberg Stug Prisner.

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Speaker 8: For Trump Media, some two point eight billion dollars in

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Speaker 8: market value has been wiped out since March twenty sixth,

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Speaker 8: and for Trump himself, his paper windfall has been reduced

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Speaker 8: by some one point six billion dollars. His stake is

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Speaker 8: now worth roughly two point nine billion. Now for Trump

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Speaker 8: to capture a benefit, he'll have to wait six months

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Speaker 8: before he can sell shares under a lock up agreement.

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Speaker 8: Trump Media now has a market cap of roughly five

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Speaker 8: billion dollars. Last year, this company generated just four point

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Speaker 8: one million in revenue in New York. I'm Doug Prisner,

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Speaker 8: Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: All right, Doug, thanks from Wall Street.

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Speaker 7: To Washington.

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Speaker 2: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is weighing in on TikTok,

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Speaker 2: and that could spark the effort to pass a bill

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Speaker 2: that would effectively ban the video sharing app in the

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Speaker 2: United States. Bloomberg j Amy Morris reports from the nation's capital.

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Speaker 1: Senator McConnell says requiring ByteDance to divest from the video

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Speaker 1: sharing app is squarely within established constitutional President on the

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Speaker 1: Senate Flora McConnell says China's influence has been baked in

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Speaker 1: from the beginning.

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Speaker 9: One hundred and seventy million Americans are active users from

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Speaker 9: a social media platform at the People's Republic of China.

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Speaker 9: Treachs as a tool of surveillance and proper.

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Speaker 1: Caranda McConnell backs a bipart as an effort to pass

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Speaker 1: the bill forcing the China based parent company to sell TikTok.

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Speaker 1: Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer has yet to commit to

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Speaker 1: bringing the bill to the floor in Washington. Amy Morris,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio, All right.

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Speaker 7: Amy, thank you.

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Speaker 3: In company news, Tesla has reached a settlement on the

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Speaker 3: eve of its highest profiled trial yet over a crash

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Speaker 3: blamed on auto Pilot. That's the driver assistance system that

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Speaker 3: Elon Musk has built as crucial to his pursuit of

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Speaker 3: self driving cars. Terms of the settlement were not disclosed.

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Speaker 2: Meanwhile, Nathan General Motors CRU's autonomous driving business is preparing

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Speaker 2: to resume testing its robotaxis with safety drivers in Phoenix.

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Speaker 2: Sources AGM is set to announce and begin the testing

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Speaker 2: as early as today. Analysts say this marks an important

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Speaker 2: step in GM's attempts to resume service after grounding its

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Speaker 2: fleet to last year. And it's time now for a

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Speaker 2: look at some of the other stories making news in

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Speaker 2: New York and around the world, and we're joined by

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Michael Barr.

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Speaker 8: Michael, good Morning, Good morning, Karenny.

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Speaker 10: Israeli leaders plan is set for military operations in the

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Speaker 10: southern Gaza city of Rafa, where more than a million

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Speaker 10: civilians have gathered. State Department spokes from Matthew Miller said

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Speaker 10: the Biden administration is strongly urging Israel against the operation.

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Speaker 11: We have made clear to Israel that we think a

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Speaker 11: full scale military invasion of Rafa would have an enormously

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Speaker 11: harmful effect on those civilians, and then it would ultimately

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Speaker 11: hurt Israel's securities.

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Speaker 10: Meanwhile, Paul Francis met with the family of hostages at

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Speaker 10: the Vatican still being held by hamas evil.

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Speaker 7: He called them bad guys and evil, and he was

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Speaker 7: very clear that the hostages need to come home.

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Speaker 2: I think you know we can all agree.

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Speaker 10: And Turkey announced restrictions on exports to Israel. The list

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Speaker 10: includes more than fifty items, including construction materials. Turkey said

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Speaker 10: it was taking measures against Israel after it opposed planned

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Speaker 10: Turkish aid drip over the Guyza Strip. Three people are dead,

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Speaker 10: including the gunman, after a shooting inside the Las Vegas

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Speaker 10: law office. Police say it was just after ten am

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Speaker 10: local time when shots rang out in Attorney Dennis Prince's

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Speaker 10: law office. Lieutenant Jason Johansson with the Las Vegas Police

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Speaker 10: says the shooter killed himself after shooting the two victims.

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Speaker 4: One deceased victim is a female in our thirties, another

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Speaker 4: one is a.

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Speaker 1: Male in his fifties.

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Speaker 10: Our suspect is also.

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Speaker 11: Deceased hereund scene, and he is a male in his seventies.

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Speaker 10: Lieutenant Johansson says the victims were apparently the shooters intended

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Speaker 10: target President Joe Biden and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kasheita

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Speaker 10: planned form a consul on defense industries and allow shipyard

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Speaker 10: workers in Japan to perform more maintenance work on US

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Speaker 10: Navy ships as they look to shore up their military alliance.

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Speaker 10: Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you

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Speaker 10: want it with the Bloomberg News Now Michael Barr, this

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Speaker 10: is bloum hern all.

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Speaker 7: Right, Michael Burr.

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Speaker 2: Thanks, that's time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update with

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Speaker 2: John stash Hour.

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Speaker 12: John, Thanks, carav Remarkable what the Yukon Huskies have done

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Speaker 12: the last two years, back to back national championships, first

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Speaker 12: to do it since Florida in two thousand and six

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Speaker 12: and seven. So they won a dozen consecutive games and

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Speaker 12: not one of them particularly close. In Phoenix, Yukon won

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Speaker 12: the first half with Purdue thirty six to thirty, won

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Speaker 12: the second half thirty nine to thirty. Won the game

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Speaker 12: seventy five to sixty. Did it as usual with balance.

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Speaker 12: Tristan Newton led the way this time twenty points seven

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Speaker 12: as says five rebounds. Coach Dan Hurley asked to compare

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Speaker 12: this title with last year.

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Speaker 13: Maybe it feels a little bit better because it's like

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Speaker 13: the last thing, knowing how great this team's been, we've

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Speaker 13: taken you know, you know, we've worn the everything shirt

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Speaker 13: the whole year, and we just everyone in this organization

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Speaker 13: gave everything so that we could win everything.

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Speaker 12: This year, Perdue had its best season in forty four years.

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Speaker 12: Zach EDI's career ends. Two time National Player the year

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Speaker 12: last night defeat, he scored thirty seven. We'll see what

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Speaker 12: the ratings were, but overall viewership almost certainly not what

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Speaker 12: the women got. Eighteen points seven million tuned in for

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Speaker 12: that South Carolina Iowa game. The last five years, only

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Speaker 12: football and the Olympics have had more viewers in Atlanta

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Speaker 12: the honor of the late Henry Aaron. It was the

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Speaker 12: fiftieth anniversary of his home run to break baby both

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Speaker 12: record and then the Mets Brandon Nimo made like Aaron,

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Speaker 12: hit two, had four hits, drove in five the Mets

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Speaker 12: with a come from behind eight to seven win over

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Speaker 12: the Brains. Yankees also used the long ball, a pair

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Speaker 12: of three run shots in the fourth and eight, first

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Speaker 12: Anthony Volpe, then Juan Soto his first in the Bronx.

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Speaker 12: Yanks all over the Marlins seven nothing. The Yanks are

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Speaker 12: ninety two, the Marlins are one and ten. Shoeyotani his

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Speaker 12: third home run as a Dodger, came in a four

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Speaker 12: to two win at Minnesota. Mike Trout, already his fifth

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Speaker 12: of the season, Angels over Tampa Bay seven to one.

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Speaker 12: The Nationals beat the Giants eight to one. Blitz still

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Speaker 12: roughed up this Giants debut. Nickson Chicago Tonight at the

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Speaker 12: Ubs Arena. It's the Rangers and Islanders, if possible playoff

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Speaker 12: preview John Stashedward, Bloomberg Sports.

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Speaker 2: Karen, all right, John, thank you. Is there a pretty

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Speaker 2: much little change this morning in the ten year treasury

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Speaker 2: yield is at four point thirty nine percent.

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Speaker 10: Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, and.

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Speaker 4: Around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the Bloomberg

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Speaker 4: Business app.

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Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. At

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Speaker 3: first there was several rate cuts. Now it might be

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Speaker 3: just one or none at all. Investors are trying to

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Speaker 3: figure out just how much, if at all, the Federal

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Speaker 3: Reserve will cut rates this year. Began twenty twenty four

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Speaker 3: expecting several cuts throughout the year. Well, Former Saint Louis

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Speaker 3: FED President James Bullard says he still thinks we can

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Speaker 3: see multiple cuts this year. He sat down with Bloomberg's

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Speaker 3: hustling to Amin on the sidelines of HSBC's Global Investment

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Speaker 3: summit in Hong Kong. Let's go now to part of

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Speaker 3: that conversation.

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Speaker 5: I think at this point you should probably take the

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Speaker 5: Committee on the Chair at face value. I think their

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Speaker 5: best guest right now is still three cuts this year,

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Speaker 5: and of course the data can go one way or another,

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Speaker 5: but that's the base case. I think it's been a

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Speaker 5: very successful policy. The policy rate was increased a lot

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Speaker 5: during twenty twenty two, and inflation fell quite a bit

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Speaker 5: in the second half of twenty twenty three. Last year,

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Speaker 5: at this time, core PC inflation would have been two

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Speaker 5: hundred basis points higher than it is right now. That's

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Speaker 5: the committee's favorite measure. So you're looking at a very

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Speaker 5: successful policy with a pretty strong economy. So a lot

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Speaker 5: of things going.

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Speaker 7: Right for the FED right now. So Powell has been

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Speaker 7: right so far.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think he's been right so far, and the

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Speaker 5: Committee's been right so far to pursue an aggressive strategy

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Speaker 5: to bring inflation back to target. Most of that was

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Speaker 5: in twenty twenty two, and then you bore the fruit

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Speaker 5: in twenty twenty three and into twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 14: Here we talked about how so the FED is data dependent?

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Speaker 7: Paul himself says he is data dependent. What exactly does that.

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Speaker 14: Mean and which data in particular is he looking at

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Speaker 14: should be looking at?

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Speaker 5: I think right now, I think it's mostly the inflation data,

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Speaker 5: because on the real side of the economy, things are

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Speaker 5: going very well, and you can argue about why, but

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Speaker 5: they're going very well. The Committee doesn't really have to

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Speaker 5: worry about that side of the mandate right now. All

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Speaker 5: they've got to worry about is getting inflation back to

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Speaker 5: the two percent target, and they've come a long ways back.

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Speaker 5: Already was four point eight percent now two point eight

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Speaker 5: percent core PC inflation on a twelve month basis. That

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Speaker 5: means you've only got eight tenths of one percent to go,

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Speaker 5: And some people are saying that the next report will

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Speaker 5: lead to core PC being only two point six percent

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Speaker 5: on a twelve month basis, So you're starting to get

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Speaker 5: close enough. I think you have enough data in hand

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Speaker 5: right now to justify the first break. Maybe not a

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Speaker 5: whole string of ray cuts, but you could certainly justify

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Speaker 5: the first ray cut now based on the data that

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Speaker 5: they have.

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Speaker 14: We talk about how the US economy is very strong.

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Speaker 7: So would you say that the risk in the US

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Speaker 7: economy right now is.

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Speaker 14: Inflation and not growth? Fair to say that that's I

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Speaker 14: think that's right. Yeah, Why is the US economy so resilient?

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Speaker 14: I mean, not too long ago we were expecting a

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Speaker 14: recession one hundred percent or you know, priced in of

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Speaker 14: a recession.

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Speaker 7: Yes, here we are with a very resilient economy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: Last year, at this time, you had the bank failure

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Speaker 5: of a Silicon Valley bank and other banks, smaller banks

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Speaker 5: around the country. That was overinterpreted to mean that the

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Speaker 5: US was going into recession. I don't think it was

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Speaker 5: ever a good story to tell, because yes, their banks failed,

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Speaker 5: but they're only a small fragment of the total banking

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Speaker 5: and the total intermediation sector in the US economy. So

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Speaker 5: I think that card was overplayed. And not only did

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Speaker 5: the US not go into recession in the second half

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Speaker 5: of twenty twenty three, but the economy actually boomed in

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Speaker 5: the second half of twenty twenty three, so you really

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Speaker 5: got a very strong outcome and that has continued into

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Speaker 5: the first part of twenty twenty four. Here, although I

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Speaker 5: would say we're we're going to be closer to the

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Speaker 5: trend growth right now, not way above trend the way

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Speaker 5: we were during the last six months of twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 14: Some people talk about the US economy being a two

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Speaker 14: track economy.

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Speaker 7: What's the risk in that? What do you mean by

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Speaker 7: two tracks? There's some parts of the economy that's actually

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Speaker 7: very weak.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's always the case, probably in any

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Speaker 5: really big economy. There are always some things that aren't

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Speaker 5: going so well, or some markets where there are problems.

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Speaker 5: But I think that it's very encouraging that the overall

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Speaker 5: picture is very strong for the US.

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Speaker 7: You took about the risk.

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Speaker 14: Of the fact possibly being behind target, behind the CoV

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Speaker 14: so to speak, how do you assess that risk that

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Speaker 14: it may be behind the CoV.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't think that this has really come into

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Speaker 5: view yet because things are going so well. So it's

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Speaker 5: a good problem to have. The economedy is doing well,

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Speaker 5: inflesh is coming down. But if you don't pay attention

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Speaker 5: to everything that could happen, you might weigh the probabilities

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Speaker 5: a little bit off. So it's maybe a minor problem

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Speaker 5: to have, but it's just something you keep an eye on.

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Speaker 5: In the monks, I haead.

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Speaker 3: That was former Saint Louis Fed President James Bullard speaking

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Speaker 3: with Bloomberg's Hustling to a Me and catch the full

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Speaker 3: conversation on the Bloomberg Talks podcast. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today,

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Speaker 7: And I'm Karen Moscow.

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