Speaker 1: What's going on? Everybody. Welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is
Speaker 1: the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I'm your host, Joe Rico, and
Speaker 1: today we're gonna take a look into statcast highlights. Some
Speaker 1: guys at the top of leaderboards, some names that you
Speaker 1: might not expect to see a top of leaderboards, some
Speaker 1: maybe you will. But we're going to go through seven
Speaker 1: key statistics, both for hitters and pitchers today and I
Speaker 1: am joined by a phenomenal guest, a dear old friend
Speaker 1: from the fantasy space, Eric Cross. You can find him
Speaker 1: as the lead MLB writer at Rotoballer. He hosts the
Speaker 1: tool Shed podcast and he was also the twenty twenty
Speaker 1: one FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year. Eric. Great to
Speaker 1: have you on the show. I think this first time
Speaker 1: I've had you on the Fantasy Pros podcast. We've obviously
Speaker 1: done a lot of shows over the years, but first
Speaker 1: time on this network. Great to have you on. My friend.
Speaker 1: How you been doing, Yeah.
Speaker 2: And doing great, Joe, hopefully you're doing great as well.
Speaker 2: I know you guys have been dealing with some some
Speaker 2: crazy stuff up there over the last few weeks. But yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean we were just talking before we hit record.
Speaker 2: It's been a crazy few weeks for all of us.
Speaker 2: I feel it's weird to think that we're almost into
Speaker 2: August now and summer's already you know, over half over,
Speaker 2: and then baseball seasons and like the you know, the
Speaker 2: final third, final stretch run here. But yeah, I'm really
Speaker 2: excited to hop on and it's always good talking with
Speaker 2: you and dig into some stack cast.
Speaker 1: Eric is one of the one of the absolute best.
Speaker 1: More known for the prospect space, you should follow him
Speaker 1: at Aeric Cross MLB. I still do Airic Cross zero
Speaker 1: four in my head. The old Eric Cross MLB is
Speaker 1: where you can follow him phenomenal prospect and dynasty work.
Speaker 1: Today we're going to go a little bit more on
Speaker 1: the redraft sphere, but also we probably get some dynasty
Speaker 1: takes as well, knowing Eric and his expertise, and we're
Speaker 1: going to start off today looking at the heading side,
Speaker 1: and we're going to start with the average exit velocity
Speaker 1: leader board. A lot of names that you would expect
Speaker 1: at the top O'Neil Cruz ninety six miles an hour,
Speaker 1: James Wood ninety five point two, Jordan Alvarez ninety four
Speaker 1: point six, Ellie Della Cruz, Aaron Judge. Those names are
Speaker 1: all expected to be at the top of these leader boards,
Speaker 1: and then we get into some interesting names as we
Speaker 1: continue to go down. Jordan Walker, Una Taka Murakami, Jack Cagleon,
Speaker 1: Dominic can Zone also on the top of the leaderboard.
Speaker 1: Looking at the top fifteen names here, Eric is average
Speaker 1: exit velocity is something that you pay a lot of
Speaker 1: attention to in your analysis, and also looking at this
Speaker 1: list of names, who are the guys that really stand
Speaker 1: out to you that you'd like to break down today. Yeah, no,
Speaker 1: I definitely.
Speaker 3: Pay attention to it.
Speaker 2: I mean I don't think it's you know, the be
Speaker 2: all end all, so to speak, because obviously there's a
Speaker 2: lot more that goes into, you know, evaluating a player's powers,
Speaker 2: you know, looking at obviously hard hit rate, barrel rate,
Speaker 2: some bad at ball angles as well, which actually kind
Speaker 2: of ties into the name that immediately stood out to me,
Speaker 2: and you know, he's in the midst of having a
Speaker 2: breakout year.
Speaker 3: Finally, Jordan Walker.
Speaker 2: It feels like he's been around forever and he's still
Speaker 2: only twenty four years old, which is just crazy to
Speaker 2: think about.
Speaker 3: But yeah, he's just.
Speaker 2: Near in the top of every every leaderboard that has
Speaker 2: to do with just hitting the ball hard.
Speaker 3: He's either at the top or near the top. You know.
Speaker 2: I think average TV's actually the one he ranks the
Speaker 2: highest and ninety eighth percentile at ninety three point nine
Speaker 2: miles an hour. But it's it's been really fun to
Speaker 2: watch his kind of breakout season this year. I mean,
Speaker 2: I mean, especially those of us that kind of followed
Speaker 2: him through you know, the prospect ranks and when he
Speaker 2: was drafted, like there's always a lot of hype, and
Speaker 2: he was a very highly ranked prospect and then he
Speaker 2: had that you know, two homer game and we were
Speaker 2: down there at First Pitch, Florida. That's in spring training,
Speaker 2: and the hype only grew and then unfortunately hasn't only
Speaker 2: gone so well up until this year. But I mean
Speaker 2: just looking at how hard he's hitting the ball and
Speaker 2: then tying it in with the better batted ball angles
Speaker 2: he has this year. The air rate is up, you know,
Speaker 2: the pole rate is up, pole air rate as well,
Speaker 2: just really allowing him to kind of take advantage of
Speaker 2: the elite root he's always had, Like he's always hit
Speaker 2: the ball hard. I mean last year it was ninety
Speaker 2: two point three miles an hours, like he's always hit
Speaker 2: the ball hard, it's just he's hitting the ball hard
Speaker 2: at better angles to kind of maximize that power. And
Speaker 2: then he hit the ball over the fence much more consistently.
Speaker 2: So I think there was some skepticism earlier in the year, like, oh, wait,
Speaker 2: you know it's going to fall off, He'll revert back
Speaker 2: to the old Walker. But hey, we're about the I think,
Speaker 2: pushing the two third mark of the season here, so
Speaker 2: and he's on about like what a thirty five you know,
Speaker 2: Homer twenty two steel pace with a twoity nine average.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm I think at this point we can
Speaker 2: start saying that, you know, the breakout for Walker is legit,
Speaker 2: and you know this, you know this elite versions here
Speaker 2: to stay.
Speaker 1: Is this something I guess you kind of answered it.
Speaker 1: So heading into next year, assuming Walker finishes out as
Speaker 1: like a second round first round value, is that where
Speaker 1: he will end up being ranked when it comes to redraft,
Speaker 1: startup dynasty leagues? Is this a guy that you think
Speaker 1: is worthy of a first round pick going forward, regardless
Speaker 1: of format.
Speaker 3: I don't know if I would say first round.
Speaker 2: I think there's just so many other names that are
Speaker 2: in consideration that, I think people will feel a little
Speaker 2: bit safer about taking you know, like Junior, Cameronaro, Nick Kurtz,
Speaker 2: guys like that, and then obviously all you other studs
Speaker 2: that are already up there and have been for a
Speaker 2: couple of years now. But I think second round, like
Speaker 2: you know, early to the mid part of the second round,
Speaker 2: so like in the fifteen teamer, I can see the
Speaker 2: ADP being in the vicinity of like, you know, nineteen
Speaker 2: to twenty two, somewhere in that range kind of the
Speaker 2: middle part of that round. You know, maybe bumped up
Speaker 2: a few spots in a dynasty format because of the
Speaker 2: age and you know, the long term projection. But you know,
Speaker 2: I feel confident that, you know, in those gains that
Speaker 2: he's had this year, I mean, it can always revert back.
Speaker 2: I mean, I think vladimirker Road Junior. I hate to
Speaker 2: bring him up, but he's like a perfect you know,
Speaker 2: you know, you know case right where he still hits
Speaker 2: small hard, but now the angle has halping been great
Speaker 2: this year and it's kind of gone back down in
Speaker 2: the terms of you know, home runs. So yeah, it's
Speaker 2: really exciting, but you know, hopefully he can keep these
Speaker 2: sticking going for By, I can see, I can see
Speaker 2: second round long term for him.
Speaker 1: I would do unspeakable things to have vladimirker Ro Junior
Speaker 1: with an eleven degree launch angle and hitting the ball
Speaker 1: in the air more. I hope that it comes eventually,
Speaker 1: doesn't look like it's coming imminently. I agree that the
Speaker 1: talent is there for Vlatty to hit you. The forty
Speaker 1: homers give you the thirty five plus MVP type of season.
Speaker 1: I mean, he had an MVP type of season in
Speaker 1: twenty one and then had another one in twenty four.
Speaker 1: But the last year in particular has been awful for Vlatty.
Speaker 1: But Jordan Walker, on a brighter note, has just been phenomenal.
Speaker 1: If anybody picked him up at the end of you know,
Speaker 1: the first couple of weeks waiver wires or fab or
Speaker 1: maybe he was their last pick in their draft, he
Speaker 1: is really truly paid off and another guy going down
Speaker 1: this leaderboard. He appears on a lot of the leaderboards
Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about today. But Munataka Murakami, I think
Speaker 1: nobody was really expecting this level of production. Maybe they were,
Speaker 1: but a forty plus homer pace without being a huge
Speaker 1: negative in the batting average area. I think that a
Speaker 1: lot of people are surprised with Murakami's pace, and I
Speaker 1: think a lot of it comes down to just how
Speaker 1: hard he hits the ball ninety three point eight miles
Speaker 1: an hour, average exit velocity, nineteen percent barrel, fifteen percent
Speaker 1: heart hit rate. It covers up a lot of the
Speaker 1: other laws in terms of the contact rates and the
Speaker 1: swing and miss. Is Murakami a guy that you were
Speaker 1: in on coming into the season, and do you think
Speaker 1: that this is kind of the baseline expectation for him
Speaker 1: going forward? Still just twenty six years old. Is this
Speaker 1: a guy that you would put down for forty home
Speaker 1: runs every single season and a two thirty type of
Speaker 1: batting average? I guess is this the new Kyle Schwarber.
Speaker 2: I mean it might be because once you factor in
Speaker 2: the high walk rate that he brings as well, I
Speaker 2: mean nearly twenty percent walker rate too.
Speaker 3: So yeah, he's a guy entering the year I was.
Speaker 2: I was so all over the place on him, and
Speaker 2: I'm sure I wasn't the only one, because it's a
Speaker 2: very kind of all over the place profile. And I
Speaker 2: think everything that we kind of thoughts about Murakami all
Speaker 2: the pros, all the cons they've all been on a
Speaker 2: full display, like to the max. So I'm both on
Speaker 2: positive and the negative end of the spectrum. But in
Speaker 2: terms of power, I mean, he's a guy that just
Speaker 2: everywhere you look. I mean, his rates are even better
Speaker 2: than Jordan Walker's. I think he's higher than Jordan Walker
Speaker 2: in uh. I think they're both basically the same here
Speaker 2: in average TV, but he's a little bit higher in
Speaker 2: terms of barrel and hard.
Speaker 3: Hit and just not doesn't chase.
Speaker 2: I think that that's the that's the key with Murakami
Speaker 2: that I kind of mentioned with others too, Like these
Speaker 2: kind of the big quality of contact guys that have
Speaker 2: questionable contact rates, if they don't chase a lot, I
Speaker 2: feel that's a better kind of recipe for them, at
Speaker 2: least maintaining an average that isn't completely like Joey Gallo
Speaker 2: Chris Davis levels of terrible right like two thirty average
Speaker 2: from Murakami. I mean, I feel like six seven years
Speaker 2: ago we would have been, you know, looking at that average, uh,
Speaker 2: not as favorably, and I don't think we're looking at
Speaker 2: favorably now, But two thirty isn't as bad as it
Speaker 2: used to be. It's kind of like how batting averages
Speaker 2: have kind of come down a little bit, and you know,
Speaker 2: ob you know, more walks and OBP kind of on
Speaker 2: that focus too. So if he can just keep it
Speaker 2: right where he is two thirty and doesn't drop down
Speaker 2: to you know, like two hundred or or even have
Speaker 2: them forbid lower than that, I think you can still
Speaker 2: be okay with that average. You can definitely build your
Speaker 2: teams around that. I mean, especially if you have confidence
Speaker 2: in your drafting abilities, you can absolutely work around a
Speaker 2: two thirty average, especially when that two thirty average is
Speaker 2: giving you, yeah, thirty five forty home runs. I mean,
Speaker 2: he's on pace for I think, like, damn your fifty
Speaker 2: home runs this season, and I mean I think I
Speaker 2: think it's legit. I mean, you look at the elite
Speaker 2: quality of contact, The bat speed is there, the angles
Speaker 2: are there. So yeah, and especially if you play in
Speaker 2: an OBP format, he absolutely he's a he's a top
Speaker 2: probably thirty to forty.
Speaker 3: Guy you know later this year and next year as well.
Speaker 2: But even in an average league, if he keeps that
Speaker 2: two thirty, I think you're gonna see Murk Commedy kind
Speaker 2: of settle in as yeah, maybe even the next shore Ber.
Speaker 2: I that'sh lofty praise, no doubt about that. But the profile,
Speaker 2: you know, you can see it. There's some similarities for sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, with Murk Commy, the thing is he just knows
Speaker 1: what pitches he wants to swing at. He only has
Speaker 1: a forty one percent swing rate, which is very, very low,
Speaker 1: but he doesn't chase. He seems when he swings damn
Speaker 1: near every time he's hitting the ball out of the yard.
Speaker 1: And it's just really unfortunate that he did have to
Speaker 1: miss time earlier and got hurt. I wonder what a
Speaker 1: full season's worth of stats would have looked like. There
Speaker 1: probably would have been a little bit of a regression
Speaker 1: period for him, but still, if we were looking at
Speaker 1: one hundred and forty games, this might have been a
Speaker 1: forty five fifty home run guy. And I wonder where
Speaker 1: people will draft him next year as a first basement.
Speaker 1: First base is gonna be pretty deep, but Murakami is
Speaker 1: a pretty interesting name, for sure. I wanted to at
Speaker 1: least ask about Dominic Canzone as well, because he's a
Speaker 1: guy that doesn't seem to get a ton of love
Speaker 1: in the fantasy world. If you look at roster percentages.
Speaker 1: If you deeper NFBC type of leagues, he's rostered. But
Speaker 1: the average ten twelve team players don't seem that interested
Speaker 1: in Canzone. And you look at last year eighty two
Speaker 1: games of a one to forty one WRC plus he
Speaker 1: hit three hundred. Well, this year so one thirty seven
Speaker 1: WRC plus he's hitting two fifty seven. He's got a
Speaker 1: good on bass where he's got the fifteen homers. He
Speaker 1: hits the ball incredibly hard, fourteen percent barrel, ninety two
Speaker 1: and half average Egson velocity, and the bat speed has
Speaker 1: gone up from seventy three point one to seventy four
Speaker 1: point eight this year. I'm a huge Canzone fan. Is
Speaker 1: this a guy that deserves his flowers from a fantasy
Speaker 1: point of view more than he gets eric? Because one
Speaker 1: forty WRC plus and back to back seasons very rare
Speaker 1: for any player to accomplish that.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, absolutely, And I think just in general he
Speaker 2: deserves more flowers, right, But I think I think the
Speaker 2: little bit of the skepticism and probably the reason why. Look,
Speaker 2: you've got like a Yahoo roster rate where I'm not
Speaker 2: sure where it's at now, but it's probably not like
Speaker 2: super high, maybe like what fifty years percent if I
Speaker 2: had the guests.
Speaker 3: Right now, but he's because they aren't.
Speaker 2: For whatever reason, Seattle's is not playing him much against lefties,
Speaker 2: and in his very limited time this year against lefties,
Speaker 2: he hasn't been in bad. It's two fifty four to
Speaker 2: forty seven for sixty four slash line, two bombs, nine walks,
Speaker 2: nine k's, and thirty eight point appearances.
Speaker 3: I mean that's extremely small sample size.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, but you know he hasn't been like terrible against lefties,
Speaker 2: but you know he has thirty eight play appearances against
Speaker 2: them and then two hundred and thirty eight against righties.
Speaker 2: So I feel like that's probably a little bit of
Speaker 2: the hold up for some fantasy managers. But yeah, I've
Speaker 2: been a kN Zone fan for a bit now. He
Speaker 2: was kind of like that borderline top one hundred prospect
Speaker 2: back in the day that this at some point like
Speaker 2: all right, this is probably not gonna work out, and
Speaker 2: maybe think he'd be out of the league by now.
Speaker 2: But one of those late twenties bloomers. We saw it
Speaker 2: a little bit last year and in the second half
Speaker 2: when he hit three hundred but eleven bombs in the
Speaker 2: second half of the season and then that kind of
Speaker 2: got a little bit of the intrigue going again for
Speaker 2: him this year, and he's just built on it, you know,
Speaker 2: the five h two slog, fifteen bombs, I mean full
Speaker 2: season pace. He's on pace for probably like thirty five
Speaker 2: home runs. Obviously he won't get there, but yeah, I
Speaker 2: mean he's been really, really, you know, exciting in terms
Speaker 2: of the quality of contact bat speed. You know, contact
Speaker 2: rates aren't great, but they're not terrible. They're they're higher
Speaker 2: than than the umbercamis for instance, but yeah, there's not
Speaker 2: any like glaring red flag in the profile. There's some
Speaker 2: below average patric Shore, and this is guy that's always
Speaker 2: hit the ball hardly. Last year as well, he was hot,
Speaker 2: kind of high up there, and all the quality of
Speaker 2: contact leaderboards as well. So I'm just hoping Seattle can
Speaker 2: maybe give him, you know, throw him a few more
Speaker 2: you know, starts against lefties and moving forward, we'll see.
Speaker 2: But yeah, definitely a very intriguing name here with can Zone.
Speaker 1: And another thing about him too is that most people
Speaker 1: struggle a little bit at T Mobile Safego Field. I
Speaker 1: always mix up the name. I think it's T Mobile now,
Speaker 1: not Safego anymore.
Speaker 3: I still call it.
Speaker 2: I still call a lot of the parks like what
Speaker 2: they were like twenty years ago. It's like if I
Speaker 2: can't remember, like, oh yeah it's Safego or this and that,
Speaker 2: I'm like, they just changed so much nowadays.
Speaker 3: This is a card to keep track.
Speaker 1: Whatever they were when I was a kid. That's pretty
Speaker 1: much what they're going to remain to be. Yep, But
Speaker 1: Tan Zone, you know, considering it's a really pitcher friendly ballpark,
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people will be surprised to
Speaker 1: see that he has a nine thirty eight ops at home,
Speaker 1: the one seventy three WRC plus and on the road
Speaker 1: it's not bad, a seven twenty seven ops ninety seven
Speaker 1: WRC plus, But just to excel in a pitcher friendly
Speaker 1: park the way he has. He's a guy i'd really
Speaker 1: love to see get five hundred and fifty played appearances
Speaker 1: and just see what he can do. This is not
Speaker 1: gonna be the year where that happens. Hope that we
Speaker 1: will over the next couple of seasons. We are going
Speaker 1: to keep it going. In a second and talk about
Speaker 1: the heart hit percentage leader board. First, I want to
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Speaker 1: at fantasypros dot com slash free. Now there are going
Speaker 1: to be quite a bit of overlap on these leaderboards,
Speaker 1: but let's move into the heart hit percentage department. At
Speaker 1: the top again, James Wood fifty nine point seven, just
Speaker 1: having an incredible year. But number two is O'Neil Cruz
Speaker 1: at fifty nine point two, and I think, considering his
Speaker 1: injury in the misstime, haven't really discussed him a lot
Speaker 1: on the channel outside of the early portion of the year.
Speaker 1: But sixty four games he has fourteen homers twenty one steals.
Speaker 1: Hitting two sixty four is maybe the craziest thing after
Speaker 1: he hit two hundred last year. I wonder what the
Speaker 1: future evaluation looks like for O'Neil Cruz, Eric because the
Speaker 1: underlying data has always been good. This year, it's a
Speaker 1: sixteen percent barrel, fifty nine percent hard hit. Rady obviously
Speaker 1: hits the crap out of the ball. Bats beeat is great.
Speaker 1: Under the surface though, this is essentially the same guy
Speaker 1: that we've seen over the last couple of years, and
Speaker 1: these things seem to click this season. But I wonder
Speaker 1: what you make of him for the rest of this
Speaker 1: year and what his draft price will look like next year.
Speaker 1: This is a guy who's been a first second round
Speaker 1: pick and fantasy before and last year he was orderlining
Speaker 1: outside of the top of one hundred. So what does
Speaker 1: your evaluation tell you of O'Neal Cruz at this point?
Speaker 2: Man, he might be like one of the you know,
Speaker 2: three or foremost polarizing hitters in baseball. And you mentioned
Speaker 2: just what I was about to bring up in that,
Speaker 2: you know, when you look under the hood, I mean, yeah,
Speaker 2: like the slash line is a lot better this year.
Speaker 3: You know, ever, just up sixty four points. OBP is
Speaker 3: up fifty two points, slug is up ninety four points.
Speaker 2: So that's great and anybody that got him for that,
Speaker 2: you know, like that top one hundred or just a
Speaker 2: said price type that weird you just were talking about.
Speaker 2: You probably feel pretty good even with the miss time.
Speaker 2: It's it's still a pretty good investment that you made.
Speaker 2: But at the same time, the metrics under the hood
Speaker 2: are basically more or less the same as last year.
Speaker 2: I mean, he's still I mean last year he was
Speaker 2: he was hitting the crap out of the ball. Last
Speaker 2: year he's been above a fifty percent hard hit rate
Speaker 2: each of the last three years. The strikeout rate is
Speaker 2: actually higher than last year by two and a half percent.
Speaker 2: Thirty two percent last year, thirty four and a half
Speaker 2: percent this year. Contact rates are kind of the same
Speaker 2: as well. You're talking like mid seventies, you know, seventy five,
Speaker 2: seventy six percent contact rate in zone.
Speaker 3: You know, overall, he's.
Speaker 2: Like the low to mid sixties, and it's actually the
Speaker 2: with rates gone up to thirty seven point eight percent.
Speaker 2: So at the same time, like I feel like he's
Speaker 2: just you know, had you know this have a profile.
Speaker 2: Obviously he's kind of prone the you know, pretty notables
Speaker 2: and valleys. I just feel like those the peaks have
Speaker 2: this s been times better this year, and he either
Speaker 2: looks like Aaron Judge or like Joey a late career
Speaker 2: Joey Gallo, and I feel there's like no in between
Speaker 2: with this guy. He's either you know, the best player
Speaker 2: in Fantasy for three weeks, then he's almost a guy
Speaker 2: you want to bench for three weeks. So whatever the
Speaker 2: price tige is and assuming that he can, you know,
Speaker 2: finish the season strong, I feel like it's gonna be
Speaker 2: another pretty high price tage. Maybe not first second round,
Speaker 2: but I guess say like that third fourth round territory
Speaker 2: where the ADP is like, you know, maybe in the
Speaker 2: forties or something like that, And am I gonna want
Speaker 2: to go after that?
Speaker 3: Probably not.
Speaker 2: He's super exciting and when he's on it's really fun
Speaker 2: to watch, but I just can't go with a guy
Speaker 2: that's like that inconsistent that early as like one of
Speaker 2: my three or four core pieces and you know, probably
Speaker 2: one of my two or three core hitting pieces for
Speaker 2: my team. So yeah, I feel like that, you know,
Speaker 2: it's just the ebbs and flows of O'Neil Cruz and
Speaker 2: whatever the price as to be next year, I'm probably
Speaker 2: not gonna be buying into that.
Speaker 1: He's in a class of player and it's like Dylan
Speaker 1: Cruz is probably are at Dylan Cruise. Dylan Cease is
Speaker 1: probably the best pitching comp I can give.
Speaker 3: Oh. I like that.
Speaker 1: He'll have the good years, he'll have the bad years,
Speaker 1: and Dylan Cease next year probably gonna be a second
Speaker 1: or third round pick and I won't want anything to
Speaker 1: do with him because of the inconsistencies. And it's the
Speaker 1: same thing with O'Neil Cruz. I didn't buy him this year.
Speaker 1: I was out, but this would have been the year
Speaker 1: to buy O'Neal Cruz. I was really skeptical of the
Speaker 1: skills set. I mean, even this year, the strikeout rates
Speaker 1: at thirty five percent. There are holes in his game,
Speaker 1: but ADP was around one hundred. Next year, if I
Speaker 1: had to guess today, is ADP is going to be
Speaker 1: around thirty or so thirty five And I think that
Speaker 1: would probably be a tap out range for me. As
Speaker 1: much as he is an enticing player, and I think
Speaker 1: the skill set, if he puts it all together one year,
Speaker 1: this could be a guy who wins an MVP. But
Speaker 1: the inconsistencies are are great, and I don't expect the
Speaker 1: two to sixty four batting average that happened terribly often
Speaker 1: projections don't really either, so it'll be more of a
Speaker 1: fade heading into next year, but it'll be really interesting
Speaker 1: to see where the price ends up. Now we've talked
Speaker 1: about a lot of guys who are having good seasons
Speaker 1: so far. Let's talk about a guy who is, but
Speaker 1: not quite to the same extent of these other guys,
Speaker 1: and part of it is just due to volume, and
Speaker 1: that's Bryce Eldrick. Sixty games, ten homers, one stolen base,
Speaker 1: two sixty five batting average. It's a little bit more modest,
Speaker 1: but again he does appear on our leaderboard here for
Speaker 1: heart hit percentage a fifty four point eight percent heart
Speaker 1: hit rate. He has a thirteen percent barrel rate, ninety
Speaker 1: two and a half mile an hour average egsit velocity
Speaker 1: and bat speed. Something that I've really paid a lot
Speaker 1: more attention to this year was seventy one point five
Speaker 1: miles an hour last year, only thirty games in the BIGS.
Speaker 1: It's up more than two full miles an hour to
Speaker 1: seventy three point eight. Bryce Eldridge has been a really
Speaker 1: good hitter this year, despite the early struggles when he
Speaker 1: first got called up. What's your long term EVL tell
Speaker 1: you here. Is this a superstar in the making? Is
Speaker 1: the park too much to overcome? Here in San Francisco?
Speaker 1: What do you think of Bryce Eldris Eric.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know if I would go superstar, but
Speaker 2: I think star for sure. I think he can be
Speaker 2: a guy that's, you know, a top ten first baseman
Speaker 2: for fantasy, maybe even a guy that kind of gets
Speaker 2: in that top five range at times because that power
Speaker 2: is legit. And yeah, the ballpark isn't great, but you know,
Speaker 2: this is probably the best left handed power bat San
Speaker 2: frans developed. And I can't even say how long a
Speaker 2: long a long time. So is his type of power
Speaker 2: kind of I think transcends all fields, you know, especially
Speaker 2: when you combine the quality of contact, which is elite.
Speaker 2: I mean, fifty five percent hard hit rate for a rookie,
Speaker 2: super super impressed. I mean it's impressive regardless, but especially
Speaker 2: so for a rookie average TV barrel, right, it's all there.
Speaker 2: X slug is one of the best in the league
Speaker 2: as well, and then you know you pair that with
Speaker 2: some pretty good battered the ball angles as well, And
Speaker 2: that's really always been the case for him. He's always
Speaker 2: been a guy that not only is one of the
Speaker 2: strongest guys on the field, but he knows how to
Speaker 2: maximize that power in games, get to that pollside pop
Speaker 2: and really just elevate consistently. And we've seen that this year,
Speaker 2: you know, twenty percent pole air rate, forty three percent
Speaker 2: poll rate, and a sixty two percent air rate. So
Speaker 2: and the contact rates are are decent too. I mean
Speaker 2: he's kind of far from an all or nothing masher.
Speaker 2: I mean he's actually above average contact in the zone
Speaker 2: and overall by by a little bit, doesn't chase too much.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean he's cooled off a bit lately,
Speaker 2: which is kind of you know, made the slash line
Speaker 2: kind of tick down a little bit.
Speaker 3: But you know, he's a rookie.
Speaker 2: That's to be expected, just learning you know, the major leagues,
Speaker 2: and you know, obviously pitchers adjusting to him.
Speaker 3: He needs to adjust back.
Speaker 2: But I think there's the building blocks are here to
Speaker 2: you know, have Eldridge kind of really solidify himself as
Speaker 2: one of the best power bats in the game and
Speaker 2: one of the best fantasy first.
Speaker 3: Basement in the game.
Speaker 2: I think if he can get it going again and
Speaker 2: having a nice end of the season and maybe looking
Speaker 2: at let's say like low twenties home runs.
Speaker 3: They say, he pops another you know, ten to twelve.
Speaker 2: Over the final two months of the season, he's hitting like,
Speaker 2: you know, two seventy, you know, with plenty of bombs.
Speaker 2: I think you can see him maybe be like a
Speaker 2: back end top one hundred guy next year. Maybe not
Speaker 2: a guy that you want as you're starting first baseman,
Speaker 2: but a guy that you'd be like really excited about
Speaker 2: getting as like your corner infielder or even as your
Speaker 2: back end starter if you wanted to wait at that
Speaker 2: position and kind of attack other spots. So yeah, I
Speaker 2: think the long term outlook is pretty bright here. And
Speaker 2: he's still only twenty one years old. That's really really impressive.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think there's a lot of legitimacy into
Speaker 2: in what he's doing right now.
Speaker 1: You really got me thinking about the last great lefty
Speaker 1: that they developed, and it's I mean, Pablo Sandoval was
Speaker 1: a switch hitter, I guess, so that doesn't really count.
Speaker 1: Maybe Brandon Belt like Brandon Crawford.
Speaker 2: Like, it's not been great, right exactly, And they haven't
Speaker 2: really developed a lot of great hitters in general. They've
Speaker 2: helped some some good pitchers, but yeah, it's been it's
Speaker 2: been a bit since they've had like a rookie with
Speaker 2: this much upside, with this much excitement, with this much power.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think it's gonna be really fun to
Speaker 2: see what he turns into over the next couple of years.
Speaker 1: The other names that really stuck out to me at
Speaker 1: the bottom of this leaderboard Jake Bowers, who's had an
Speaker 1: incredible season, and Brandon Nimo, who as of late has
Speaker 1: been just on fire and is going to end up
Speaker 1: with a very Brandon Nemo type of slash line to
Speaker 1: end the season. I think at this point ten homers
Speaker 1: and four steels, but he's really picked it up as
Speaker 1: of late. One fifteen WRC plus. What are your thoughts
Speaker 1: on these two? Bowers as well, who's just been kind
Speaker 1: of a league winner. Honestly, I hate to use that term,
Speaker 1: but Bowers was three essentially and he's given you eighteen homers,
Speaker 1: six deals in the two fifty six batting average, and
Speaker 1: again just the gains in the average exit velocity, the
Speaker 1: heart hit rate, the barrel rate. What are your thoughts
Speaker 1: on those two guys in particular, more fringy fantasy assets
Speaker 1: I think than people would assume they're more fringy fantasy assets,
Speaker 1: I should say, But guys have been really good this year.
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely. In Nimo's case.
Speaker 2: He's been you know, sneaky good for a while now.
Speaker 2: He's actually a guy that I get a lot of
Speaker 2: shares of every year, like him and like Ian Happ
Speaker 2: or just two elfielders. I at least one of those
Speaker 2: two guys on i'd say over half of my teams,
Speaker 2: because they're not flashy by any means. They're they're kind of,
Speaker 2: you know, for lack of a better term, they're kind
Speaker 2: of boring, but they just give you some pretty solid,
Speaker 2: like the outfield three level production every single year for
Speaker 2: the most part. So yeah, Nimo, look at he's kind
Speaker 2: of a guy that's harder to hit the ball, a
Speaker 2: lot harder the last handful of years. Early in his
Speaker 2: career he was you know, like upper thirties, low forties
Speaker 2: and like terms of hard hit rate, But the last
Speaker 2: four years have been his best four years, you know,
Speaker 2: above forty seven percent every year in hard hit rate
Speaker 2: and this year it's fifty two percent. You know, all
Speaker 2: while still you know, being a good contact guy, keeping
Speaker 2: in the k rate and check. You know, you kind
Speaker 2: of see that shift when you look at like his
Speaker 2: walker rate, it's kind of gone down the last couple
Speaker 2: of years. So he's been definitely been more aggressive and
Speaker 2: hunting out those pitches to hit. But you see the
Speaker 2: home run total, it's been higher than it was in
Speaker 2: the past. So yeah, I mean, the overall numbers aren't
Speaker 2: really great this year with him all you mentioned ten
Speaker 2: home runs, four steals, But I think he's really starting
Speaker 2: to kind of find his stride and I think you're
Speaker 2: gonna see a pretty solid end of the season and
Speaker 2: I have him in a few weeks, so hopefully that
Speaker 2: is the case. And luckily I also got Jake Bauers
Speaker 2: in a couple of deeper leagues as well, And it's
Speaker 2: just because I thought the playing time could be there,
Speaker 2: and then last year he gave you you know, it's like, oh,
Speaker 2: this guy can give you a little bit of power,
Speaker 2: a little bit of speed and maybe find his way
Speaker 2: into you know, four starts a week or something like that.
Speaker 2: So I got him like a lot of like a
Speaker 2: lot of dcs and deeper formats like that just has
Speaker 2: some depth, and it's been probably one of my better
Speaker 2: draft picks I made, you know, this year because you
Speaker 2: look across the board. I mean, you know, the contact
Speaker 2: orate a little low care, it's a little hot. Nothing
Speaker 2: that's like you know, super red flag or anything like that.
Speaker 2: But he's just hitting the crap out of the ball.
Speaker 2: The bat speed is there, he's one of the top guys.
Speaker 2: There's a bat speed. He doesn't chase. Again, that kind
Speaker 2: of what I mentioned earlier. He doesn't chase, so he's
Speaker 2: able to maintain that good average, and you know, when
Speaker 2: he does make contact, he does a lot of damage
Speaker 2: on it and draws a lot of walks too. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I think I think Bowers is a pretty fun kind
Speaker 2: of one of those late career breakouts. Again, I mean
Speaker 2: kind of bounced around, didn't really do much, you know,
Speaker 2: the last handful of years. Even two years ago he
Speaker 2: was hitting one ninety nine. But yeah, I like Bowers
Speaker 2: a lot. I think this is you know, pretty legit.
Speaker 2: Just seeing some of the gains he's had this year.
Speaker 2: I think they're all legitimate and tangible changes here that
Speaker 2: he's had. And yeah, I think both these guys are
Speaker 2: are pretty solid and both definitely undervalued, no doubt about that.
Speaker 1: So NIMMO thirty three. Bowers about to be thirty one.
Speaker 1: You think these are real tangible changes? Are they real
Speaker 1: enough that you'll be investing again next year? You think
Speaker 1: whether it's redraft or potentially in Dynasty.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'm I'm always going to invest in
Speaker 2: Nemo as I mentioned him in Half, or guys that
Speaker 2: I'm going to target until they start falling off a
Speaker 2: cliff and there was a production even if they're old
Speaker 2: and they're like almost like the the Tony Gonzales of
Speaker 2: fantasy baseball. You used to draft twenty Ganzalez and fantasy
Speaker 2: football even when he was older, it was like, oh,
Speaker 2: he's too old, but he'll give you. Yeah, man, another
Speaker 2: eleven hundred yards and eight touchdowns. This kind of like, wow,
Speaker 2: I equate these guys or the Nemos and Half. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm definitely gonna keep you know, target happened. Yeah, Bowers
Speaker 2: is gonna be a guy that you know, he wasn't.
Speaker 2: I don't have no idea what his ADP was this year,
Speaker 2: I forget, but it wasn't high obviously, So probably a
Speaker 2: guy that might go, oh lord, I mean if this continues,
Speaker 2: maybe like the one seventy five range. Kind of hard
Speaker 2: to say with him, but whatever, it is assuming it's
Speaker 2: not like you know, top one twenty five, top one fifty,
Speaker 2: which I don't think it would be. Definitely, if I
Speaker 2: can get him as like my outfield, you know, three
Speaker 2: four kind of in the end similar range to Nemo
Speaker 2: next year, I definitely will because I say he's you know,
Speaker 2: the hard hit rate has been just ticking up here.
Speaker 2: The walk rate's good, keeps the k rate relatively in check.
Speaker 2: So yeah, definitely a lot of you know, changes from
Speaker 2: him this year that you can be that you can
Speaker 2: feel good about investing in next year.
Speaker 1: We got one more hitting category I want to look at,
Speaker 1: and it's one that I mentioned earlier. It's been a
Speaker 1: really important one for me, and it's average bat speed,
Speaker 1: especially guys who have made gains from one year to
Speaker 1: the next. If you look at the bat speed leader board,
Speaker 1: Junior came in at the top, Jordan Walker, O'Neil Cruz,
Speaker 1: Nick Kurtz, all of those names are to be expected,
Speaker 1: I think, and then number five Cam Smith. I mean
Speaker 1: talked about him on the show last week with Paul
Speaker 1: Sporr as a guy that I think I'm gonna be
Speaker 1: really interested in next year. He has the raw tools,
Speaker 1: he swings very hard eleven percent barrel forty four percent
Speaker 1: hard hit rate. The average exit velocity is not quite
Speaker 1: there yet at eighty nine, but it's still a jump
Speaker 1: over the eighty seven to nine last year. But Eric,
Speaker 1: he's gained three ticks on his bat speed, And this
Speaker 1: feels like Jordan Walker, a year ago guy who had
Speaker 1: maybe not been fully written off, but a guy that
Speaker 1: wasn't really that exciting in the fantasy community anymore, certainly
Speaker 1: from a redraft point of view. Ham Smith was a
Speaker 1: ninety WRC plus last year. He's been in eighty this season,
Speaker 1: but still got some fantasy jews twelve homers, ten steals.
Speaker 1: He's a guy that I'm gonna be really interested in.
Speaker 1: What do you think is there any chance that he
Speaker 1: becomes the Jordan Walker of twenty twenty seven, assuming we
Speaker 1: have baseball?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean.
Speaker 2: Hopefully we have baseball, and I don't know what we
Speaker 2: would do without that, but that'd be a scary world.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, I don't know if i'd say
Speaker 2: the next Jordan Walker, but I think there's definitely like
Speaker 2: that similar intrigue there, like you kind of mentioned, and
Speaker 2: I think what needs to be remembered about Cam Smith
Speaker 2: that I feel like it's lost in the shuffle here
Speaker 2: when you talk about him. This is a guy that
Speaker 2: was drafted two years ago. He was drafted in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four. He had thirty two games in the minor leagues,
Speaker 2: all of which with the Cubs. Then he got traded
Speaker 2: over to Houston that offseason and they brought him right
Speaker 2: up to the majors, so there was not a lot
Speaker 2: of developmental time. And yes, this was a guy that played,
Speaker 2: you know, at Florida State in the ACC you know,
Speaker 2: good competition, and was in an advanced collegiate bat but still,
Speaker 2: thirty two games is barely even enough to say you
Speaker 2: were in the minor leagues. So and he's SOT only
Speaker 2: twenty three. I mean he'll be twenty four next spring
Speaker 2: training in late February, so still very young. I think
Speaker 2: all those things need to be remembered. And then when
Speaker 2: you look at you know, the bat speed is the
Speaker 2: one that stands right out, and I think I think
Speaker 2: he's he's a good fielder two, which helps keep him
Speaker 2: in the lineup for Houston. So that's something you can
Speaker 2: kind of be confident about. And everything in terms of
Speaker 2: like the strength and athleticism are really exciting. He's like
Speaker 2: a good runner ninety three percentile sprint speed as well.
Speaker 2: He's a guy you could even push twenty twenty this year.
Speaker 2: But you know, the slash line not so great. It
Speaker 2: kind of similar to what it was last year. But yeah,
Speaker 2: this definitely a guy to maybe take a flyer on.
Speaker 2: I don't think the price tag next year will be
Speaker 2: that bad. I mean assuming maybe you know, this year
Speaker 2: kind of keeps going the way it has some up
Speaker 2: some downs for him. Maybe he finishes with like nineteen bombs,
Speaker 2: sixteen seventeen steals, hitting two ten, two twenty.
Speaker 3: I feel like he'll be a guy that you'd be taking.
Speaker 2: In like that two point fifty ish range is like
Speaker 2: your outfield five, but that's actually an area. It's assuming
Speaker 2: that is the area that I like this. That's kind
Speaker 2: of the guy I like to target as like my
Speaker 2: last outfielder. Like, all right, this guy has some upside.
Speaker 2: You know, maybe there's a war here or there comes
Speaker 2: of you know, something to do with the profile or
Speaker 2: maybe injuries or whatever it may be. But if they
Speaker 2: click bam, maybe they can give you like outfield three
Speaker 2: level production. I think that's exactly what you're looking at
Speaker 2: here with Cam Smith. So yeah, definitely a guy that
Speaker 2: is very, very intriguing. This year might not it might
Speaker 2: not click this year for him, but you know, I mean,
Speaker 2: Houston's a pretty good organization in terms of their player development,
Speaker 2: so that that gives you all a little more confidence
Speaker 2: that they can help him figure this out. So yeah,
Speaker 2: definitely a name to still keep on your radar and
Speaker 2: maybe even target later on your drafts next year.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean the more I look at him, the
Speaker 1: more I keep talking myself into him, and I think
Speaker 1: he will be a guy that is a heavy target.
Speaker 1: Is his woba's two eighty six, which is not special,
Speaker 1: expected WOLBA three point thirty four, which is ahead of
Speaker 1: the likes of Ivon Herrera, Kyle Tucker, who I know
Speaker 1: is not having a great year, Manny Machado. He ranked
Speaker 1: sixty seventh among all qualified hitters and expected WOLBA, so
Speaker 1: definitely not perfect, but I think he's a guy that
Speaker 1: I will have some interest in, depending on that price.
Speaker 1: Garrett Mitchell is another guy who is also really kind
Speaker 1: of shocking to see at the top of this leader board.
Speaker 1: If you look at the production of the other guys
Speaker 1: around him, it's a couple of disappointing names here, Vladdie,
Speaker 1: who I won't get into again for my own mental health.
Speaker 1: I just can't do it again. But Garrett Mitchell is
Speaker 1: having quietly a really good year, and especially as of late,
Speaker 1: he has turned things around despite a thirty two percent
Speaker 1: strikeout rate, eight homers, seven steals, a two to seventy
Speaker 1: seven batting average, forty five runs, forty eight rbi. But
Speaker 1: that barrel rate. I mean, we've seen flashes of a
Speaker 1: double digit barrel rate from him before, but he's gone
Speaker 1: from seven percent to fourteen this year, average eggsit velocity
Speaker 1: from ninety to ninety two to six, hard hit rate
Speaker 1: from forty two to fifty, and then that pesky bat
Speaker 1: speed seventy six point one to seventy seven point four.
Speaker 1: He's made gains in each of the last three seasons,
Speaker 1: and I wonder how much the strikeout rate is going
Speaker 1: to hold him back considering just how hard he hits
Speaker 1: the ball. Is this a guy that you think could
Speaker 1: have a legit type of fantasy breakout eric or does
Speaker 1: the swing and miss kind of hold him back from that?
Speaker 3: Man?
Speaker 2: Garrett Mitchell has always been intriguing to me. I mean,
Speaker 2: I think there's definitely that breakout potential there where.
Speaker 3: If he can even.
Speaker 2: Make this modest improvements to you know, the contact rate
Speaker 2: the strikeout rate, and get those two I get the
Speaker 2: key rate closure to thirty percent, get the contact rate
Speaker 2: closure to like even like seventy percent, he could just
Speaker 2: really really take off because that's always been the one
Speaker 2: area of his game that really lacked. He's always been
Speaker 2: a guy that has good, you know, good power, good speed,
Speaker 2: you know, a pretty good, you know, really good defender
Speaker 2: as well. It's like every other part of this game
Speaker 2: was always pretty exciting, but it's that one pesky little
Speaker 2: the hit tool has always been kind of holding him back.
Speaker 2: And another area too that kind of has been holding
Speaker 2: him back has been this the angles that he hits
Speaker 2: the ball at. I mean, he's pounding the ball, and yeah,
Speaker 2: the barrel rates really good and over double last year,
Speaker 2: but he's got a fifty three percent ground ball rate
Speaker 2: and only a ten zero point eight percent pull air rate.
Speaker 2: So there's definitely, you know, a lot of good here,
Speaker 2: but sometimes even this one or two bad parts of
Speaker 2: the profile can overshadow you know, six or seven good parts, right,
Speaker 2: and especially when that one bad is just making contact
Speaker 2: does matter how hard to hit the ball. If you
Speaker 2: can't make contact, you know you're not gonna do overly well.
Speaker 2: But obviously this year, you know, he's hitting two seventy seven,
Speaker 2: So it's just a weird profile, Like I would bet
Speaker 2: every dollar I have he a't gonna hit you know,
Speaker 2: two seventy seven for the rest of the year or
Speaker 2: next year, not without some drastic improvements in those areas
Speaker 2: I just mentioned. But yeah, he's one that's always been
Speaker 2: intriguing to me, And I don't know it's I don't
Speaker 2: I'm not a big fan of investing heavily in this profile.
Speaker 2: And I think if this continues and he ends the
Speaker 2: year maybe you know, close to fifteen home runs and
Speaker 2: steals with a decent slash line that price I could
Speaker 2: kind of boost up a little bit, maybe even in
Speaker 2: the top two hundred for next year.
Speaker 3: It's kind of hard to say with him. I can't
Speaker 3: get a.
Speaker 2: Good rid of where he would possibly end up next
Speaker 2: year in terms of ADP.
Speaker 3: But he's really intriguing.
Speaker 2: But I would just love to see any any improvement
Speaker 2: in terms of this making contact. I think he could
Speaker 2: really take off, make some more contact, elevate a bit more.
Speaker 2: This could be like a top one hundred player like that.
Speaker 2: Upside is absolutely there, so we'll see.
Speaker 1: I agree, Yeah, we'll have to see how he finishes
Speaker 1: out the year. I think I can see him being
Speaker 1: overvalued as a middle of the order bat in Milwaukee,
Speaker 1: a very good, perennially undervalued lineup. So maybe he doesn't
Speaker 1: go as high as I think. But I'm a little
Speaker 1: bit worried. I agree with the with the profile. You know,
Speaker 1: the zone contact that's seventy seven percent is not good.
Speaker 1: The swinging strike rate at fifteen percent is not my
Speaker 1: favorite either. He can overcome it if he raises the ball.
Speaker 1: I agree there as well, but that's not trended in
Speaker 1: the right direction this year with a fifty three percent
Speaker 1: ground ball right. So we'll have to see what happens
Speaker 1: with Garrett Mitchell. But he's been I guys that shouldn't
Speaker 1: be on waiver wires today. He should be rostered for
Speaker 1: sure right now. But how things will look going forward,
Speaker 1: we'll have to see. We'll be We're gonna keep it.
Speaker 3: Well, that's right.
Speaker 2: Can we just like combine like him and like Luis
Speaker 2: a Riaz or Wilson like you can bind like the
Speaker 2: two profiles in the one that would be like maybe the.
Speaker 3: Best hitter in baseball or one of them. So yeah,
Speaker 3: I wish, I wish.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll we'll see what happens with Gary Mitchell, because
Speaker 1: he's still just twenty seven years old. It'll be twenty
Speaker 1: eight soon, but still several good years ahead of him,
Speaker 1: I'm sure, and hopefully some good stuff ahead of us
Speaker 1: on this show. We're going to talk pitchers in a second,
Speaker 1: but first I want to remind you guys about our
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Speaker 1: called one eight hundred gambler. Eric. We are going to
Speaker 1: talk some pitchers, and we'll start it off here with
Speaker 1: opposing barrel percentage allowed. We were going to talk barrel
Speaker 1: percentage with the hitters, but I think you know, it's
Speaker 1: the same general leader boards, and I think going through
Speaker 1: the three we have probably covers it. It's a lot
Speaker 1: of the same names. Let's switch over to pitchers and
Speaker 1: look at the barrel percentage allowed and probably to the
Speaker 1: surprise of nobody, Jacob Mizerowski, like he is on top
Speaker 1: of nearly every leaderboard this year, is on top of
Speaker 1: this one. He's only allowed seven barrels the entirety of
Speaker 1: the season.
Speaker 3: It's insane.
Speaker 1: Number shoe Heeyo Tani at number two. I know he's
Speaker 1: been shut down right now, but he was, you know,
Speaker 1: in the running for the cy Young there as well
Speaker 1: before he was shut down. Just phenomenal work. And then
Speaker 1: we get to Land and Roope and Trevor McDonald, a
Speaker 1: pair of Giants pitchers. And we'll start with Land and
Speaker 1: Roupe who's coming off of a third consecutive really good start.
Speaker 1: The first one was before the break against the Blue Jays,
Speaker 1: and the two coming out of the break Seattle and Kansas,
Speaker 1: have both been really good. He's sitting on a three
Speaker 1: ninety three ERA, a three thirty one FIP, A one
Speaker 1: to twenty four whip. It's been a little bit of
Speaker 1: an up and down year for him, but it really
Speaker 1: comes down to the blow ups. The blow ups have
Speaker 1: been horrible, and every other start pretty much has been good.
Speaker 1: When he's not allowing five walks and eight are and runs,
Speaker 1: he's good. Who would have thought, But that's pretty much
Speaker 1: been the case with land and Roope this year, and
Speaker 1: I think I think Eric a lot of it comes
Speaker 1: down to the quality of contact against, which is the
Speaker 1: point of this leaderboard. Here, four percent barrel rate and
Speaker 1: a thirty percent hard hit rate while also getting fifty
Speaker 1: percent ground balls, it just feels like a good recipe
Speaker 1: for success. What do you think about Landing Roup. I've
Speaker 1: talked with two Giants fans in recent weeks, Justin Mason
Speaker 1: and Casey Bubba. Bubba is a fan. Mason is not
Speaker 1: so split the time for us here.
Speaker 3: I think I'm gonna lean more towards being a fan.
Speaker 2: And he's the guy I actually has throwed him up
Speaker 2: today in the connect my daily recap right up that
Speaker 2: I do over on my Patreon, because he's definitely really intriguing.
Speaker 2: And you see a pretty common theme here on like
Speaker 2: the barrel rate allow leader boards, where it's either a
Speaker 2: they're just super freaking nasty like miss Hierowski.
Speaker 3: You know, it's hard to barrel of the pictures going
Speaker 3: like what one.
Speaker 2: Hundred and twelve miles an hour wherever he's thrown these days,
Speaker 2: but or they have a good sinker, you know, And
Speaker 2: that's definitely the case here with Root. But he's definitely
Speaker 2: more than just like a sinker pitched the contact guy.
Speaker 2: He's got a pretty good whiff rate on his two
Speaker 2: most used secondary in the curve and the change up.
Speaker 2: Both of those are over thirty percent. And yeah, that's
Speaker 2: definitely a recipe for success, especially for these guys where
Speaker 2: they're not blowing you away with velocity.
Speaker 3: I mean, he's not like throwing soft.
Speaker 2: He's you know, he's around like ninety three ninety four,
Speaker 2: so it's kind of like kind of middle of the
Speaker 2: road velocity these days. But he's not gonna rear back
Speaker 2: and this, you know, rear back and throw ninety eight
Speaker 2: by or anything like that. He's gotta you know, kind
Speaker 2: of more so pitch in certain areas of the zone,
Speaker 2: get those ground balls, you know, get the weak contact
Speaker 2: and kind of succeed that way.
Speaker 3: But he can still miss some bats too.
Speaker 2: He's got a you know, it's I think it's around
Speaker 2: average wiff rate, but it gets a good amount of chase,
Speaker 2: So thirty percent chase rate.
Speaker 3: That's good to see.
Speaker 2: So he's the guy that had I think his yeah,
Speaker 2: his XCIRA is three point three six right now.
Speaker 3: So even though the era has kind of been hovering
Speaker 3: in the.
Speaker 2: Upper threes, as it has each of the last two years,
Speaker 2: for him, there's some intrigue here in some I guess
Speaker 2: optimism that he could be a little bit more than this.
Speaker 2: I don't think he's gonna be like, you know, low
Speaker 2: web two point zero or anything like that, but you know,
Speaker 2: could route be a guy that's like, you know, back
Speaker 2: end top fifty, top sixty ish arm in that range,
Speaker 2: maybe your SP four or five range next year, I think. So,
Speaker 2: I think there's definitely a lot of reasons to be
Speaker 2: you know, optimistic about that being the case, and he's
Speaker 2: got you know, the.
Speaker 3: K rates ticked up a little bit this year.
Speaker 2: It keeps the walk rate under ten percent, which is
Speaker 2: kind of about league average these days with walk rates
Speaker 2: going up. So yeah, a lot a lot to like here.
Speaker 2: He ranks pretty high on the on the average ev
Speaker 2: allowed leaderboard as well. So yeah, I guess I'm not
Speaker 2: like in, you know, super thrilled by him, but I
Speaker 2: guess I would definitely lean more towards, you know, kind
Speaker 2: of buying into what we've been seeing from him this year.
Speaker 1: I have to as of late, he's been a guy
Speaker 1: that I've invested in. Now. You can't time the blow
Speaker 1: ups with him. They've they've been three or four of
Speaker 1: than this year, and you might get stuck with one
Speaker 1: of those in your lineup. It can happen to any pitcher,
Speaker 1: but it seems to happen a little more a little
Speaker 1: bit more regularity with landing route. So it's something to
Speaker 1: keep an eye on. But I do think that the
Speaker 1: skills are really really good here, and I think that
Speaker 1: we could see I've not a full blown breakout next year,
Speaker 1: but if he continues to put the ball on the
Speaker 1: ground with you know, the terrible contact he's allowing against
Speaker 1: thirty percent hard hit, four percent barrel rate, eighty six
Speaker 1: mile an hour average exit velocity. I think it's a
Speaker 1: it's a good recipe for success for Landon Rupe and
Speaker 1: his teammate Trevor McDonald isn't nearly as interesting. But he
Speaker 1: did have a period earlier in the season where he
Speaker 1: was looking really good. There was a five or six
Speaker 1: start stretch where he was a hot pick up and
Speaker 1: then it blew up by all teams. The Toronto Blue Jays.
Speaker 1: You can't hit water if they fell out of a
Speaker 1: boat right now. They got eight runs on him a
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, But other than that, it's been
Speaker 1: a really good run for him since maybe mid May.
Speaker 1: I know you wouldn't. You wouldn't see that looking at
Speaker 1: just the era and the whip. But any interest at
Speaker 1: all in Trevor McDonald, whether it's down the stretch this
Speaker 1: year as a dynasty piece, potentially still just twenty five
Speaker 1: years old.
Speaker 2: Eric.
Speaker 3: Not not a lot.
Speaker 2: You know, maybe is like one of the back end
Speaker 2: guys you know on my team for a redraft league,
Speaker 2: and or even like a dynasty league team.
Speaker 3: He's probably going to be that's the thing with him.
Speaker 2: If you're looking for a guy that just another good
Speaker 2: arm or another like depth piece to have, he's.
Speaker 3: A guy in a dynasty league.
Speaker 2: It won't cost much to get him, and even in
Speaker 2: redraft with the price will not be high unless he
Speaker 2: has like a phenomenal end of the season. But just
Speaker 2: in general, I'm not super intrigued by McDonald. He does
Speaker 2: phenomenal work and getting ground balls and limiting you know,
Speaker 2: limiting hard contact allowed, limiting barrels obviously being on these
Speaker 2: leader boards, you know, and a lot that has to
Speaker 2: do with the sinker he uses, which he throws nearly
Speaker 2: sixty percent of the time. And he actually has a
Speaker 2: couple of good wif freight offerings in the slider and
Speaker 2: change up, but just because he doesn't really go to them,
Speaker 2: you know, super frequently. I mean they're combined about forty percent.
Speaker 2: But that sinker being such a prevalent part of his
Speaker 2: arsenal and kind of what he's all about. I mean,
Speaker 2: the k rates is not going to be there. I
Speaker 2: mean it's an eighteen and a half percent k rate.
Speaker 2: It was higher last year three percent. I guess that
Speaker 2: if he gets back to that range, all right, I
Speaker 2: could see myself being a little bit more intrigued, but
Speaker 2: being this being a blow average K rate guy, it's
Speaker 2: just there's such a low level of you know, margin
Speaker 2: for error here where you need the ratios to be
Speaker 2: really good. That's why I was kind of like not
Speaker 2: into Rubleski earlier in the year when he wasn't striking
Speaker 2: guys out, but now all of a sudden, Hey, he's
Speaker 2: striking guys out lately. Not to get on a tangent
Speaker 2: by him, but just the fact that kind of like
Speaker 2: McDonald's and that's in that range where I'm like, all right,
Speaker 2: he's not give me ks. So if the era and
Speaker 2: whip aren't like Ellie's solid, he's not really given you
Speaker 2: much value. So I guess as a back end depth
Speaker 2: guy maybe, but outside of that, not super intrigued by him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's totally fair. I just wanted to
Speaker 1: see if there might be something there because I earlier
Speaker 1: in the year I was kind of a fan. But
Speaker 1: I don't blame anybody for not wanting a guy on
Speaker 1: their team with an eighteen p K rate in a
Speaker 1: five year. I cannot hold that against you. Speaking of
Speaker 1: five bra, let's talk about Freddy Peralta, because if it's
Speaker 1: all heading into the season that he was gonna shave
Speaker 1: a few points off his barrel, right, the hard hit
Speaker 1: rate was still in the thirties, average exit velocity was
Speaker 1: still eighty seven eighty eight. Just knowing those couple of stats,
Speaker 1: I would have said, Yeah, Freddy Perrult is probably doing
Speaker 1: what Freddy Pewlt always does. He's been miserable, awful, unstartable,
Speaker 1: five OHO one era A one forty six whip. The
Speaker 1: strikeouts have come down to twenty two percent, The swinging
Speaker 1: strike rates are going down every single year. The stuff,
Speaker 1: which at one point was well above average, is now
Speaker 1: ninety six. What the hell happened to Freddy Prawlt to
Speaker 1: this year?
Speaker 2: Eric, Dude, that's a phenomenal question. Like, he's a guy
Speaker 2: that's just been especially I think the strikeout department so
Speaker 2: consistent for so long. I mean before this year, I
Speaker 2: mean this year. I mean he's right around a league
Speaker 2: average k rate right now twenty two and a half percent.
Speaker 2: But before this year, he had been above twenty seven
Speaker 2: percent every year of his career, and he debuted back
Speaker 2: in twenty eighteen, So we're talking about what was eight
Speaker 2: straight years above a twenty seven percent k rate. A
Speaker 2: few those years were about thirty percent. Last year was
Speaker 2: twenty eight point two, and you figured, like, man, this
Speaker 2: guy was gonna just be one of those guys that
Speaker 2: continues to pump out like SP two level production for
Speaker 2: the next few years at least. I mean, he's thirty,
Speaker 2: which is for a pitcher, is not old whatsoever. Just
Speaker 2: look at, you know, all the guys that have aged
Speaker 2: like fine wine, like the Wheelers and Chris Sales of
Speaker 2: the world. So I was, you know, I was a
Speaker 2: Parlta guy, and he's got that. I had a lot
Speaker 2: of shares of him previous years, and thankfully it worked out.
Speaker 2: Even though I was targeting him this year, I didn't
Speaker 2: get I think I might have had one share of
Speaker 2: Pralta if that just because he just didn't work out
Speaker 2: in my draft that he kind of felt to where
Speaker 2: I was willing to take him. But yeah, it's weird
Speaker 2: because he's It's not like anything is drastically changed with
Speaker 2: how he's approaching, you know, attacking hitters, because like you'll
Speaker 2: get his pitch mix last year and this year nearly identical,
Speaker 2: Like the top three pitches are, you know, foreseeing change
Speaker 2: up curveball that I have nearly identical usage rates this year
Speaker 2: to last year.
Speaker 3: It's just the with rates, which are still decent.
Speaker 2: And I mean it's not they're bad with rates, but
Speaker 2: they're all kind of lower than what he had last year.
Speaker 2: So and with that being such a big part of
Speaker 2: his game, Yeah, I think there's any kind of downteck
Speaker 2: that shows like how thin the line is sometimes in
Speaker 2: this sport where you know, even hitters or pitchers just
Speaker 2: like whether it be like, uh, you know, command gets
Speaker 2: a little bit worse, or you're not missing quite as
Speaker 2: many bats, or on the hitting side of that, your
Speaker 2: launch angle goes down a little bit. The smallest change
Speaker 2: can sometimes be like huge for your overall production. And
Speaker 2: we're seeing that in spades this year with Freddy. I mean,
Speaker 2: look at last year, his five most use offerings look
Speaker 2: got like the run value on Savant.
Speaker 3: You know, we're all positive it.
Speaker 2: Was plus nine plus nine plus four plus three plus one.
Speaker 2: This year negative one, negative five, negative three, negative one
Speaker 2: and zero. So every pitch for him has just gotten
Speaker 2: either a little bit worse or a lot worse. And
Speaker 2: I mean I still have confidence that he can bounce back.
Speaker 2: I don't think we're done seeing impactful Freddie Freeman. So
Speaker 2: if the price tag drops next year in drafts, which
Speaker 2: I'm assuming it will, I'll be definitely into if I
Speaker 2: can get Freddy is like my SPA three four next year,
Speaker 2: which I think actually might be the case. I'm absolutely
Speaker 2: gonna be intrigued because in this world where it's so
Speaker 2: what have you done for me lately, some of these
Speaker 2: guys kind of fall off the radar too much, and
Speaker 2: I'll be definitely be looking to scoop up Freddy next year.
Speaker 3: If that's the case.
Speaker 1: I think so too. I mean, XCRA is not my
Speaker 1: favorite of the era estimators, but three eighty six is
Speaker 1: still a solid number, even with the struggles. A thirteen
Speaker 1: percent strike up to walk rate is not terrible for
Speaker 1: a bottom out type of season like it has been.
Speaker 1: Still relatively young, like you said, so you know, like
Speaker 1: I mentioned earlier with Dylan Csnonial Cruz, you know type
Speaker 1: of players you buy in the cheap years. I don't
Speaker 1: think Peralta is necessarily in the same vein as Dylan
Speaker 1: ceased because he's been pretty consistent in his career, but
Speaker 1: it'll be the same type of thing where if he
Speaker 1: is around pick one hundred and twenty. Next year one
Speaker 1: hundred and forty going to be on all of my teams,
Speaker 1: most likely barring news that there's been an injury or
Speaker 1: something like that that we haven't heard about. But barring
Speaker 1: anything unforeseen, I do think Freddy Perlta will bounce back.
Speaker 1: But it's just odd to see that despite the fact
Speaker 1: that he is twelfth in the league in barrels allowed
Speaker 1: barrel percentage, it has not really paid off for him.
Speaker 1: A couple more leaderboards real quick, We're gonna do heart
Speaker 1: hit rate, and the first name that stuck out to
Speaker 1: me was Spencer Arraghetty landon Roupe at number one. His
Speaker 1: sosardo number two we'll talk about in a little bit.
Speaker 1: But Spencer Araghedtty only allowing a thirty percent heard hit
Speaker 1: rate after forty five percent last year, I would have said, Okay,
Speaker 1: this might be the trick. Average exit velocity is down,
Speaker 1: barrel rate is down, and yet he's still sitting here
Speaker 1: with a four to thirty four ERA in a one
Speaker 1: to thirty one whip. Those are better metrics than we
Speaker 1: saw last year, but it feels like Errighedy always has
Speaker 1: these really sky high expectations, and we saw a couple
Speaker 1: of good starts from him earlier in this year. What
Speaker 1: do you make of the heart hit rate improvements and
Speaker 1: what we've seen from him this season? Is there another
Speaker 1: level for Aarraghetty or is he one of these guys
Speaker 1: that we're kind of wish casting on that isn't actually
Speaker 1: that great.
Speaker 3: I feel like it's more the ladder.
Speaker 2: I mean, there's always been that intrigue with Irragatty because
Speaker 2: he's like kind of shown flashes of, you know, pretty
Speaker 2: solid upside at times, but he just feel like one
Speaker 2: of those guys is just never gonna fully put together.
Speaker 3: And I hate to say that.
Speaker 2: He's still only twenty six, so there's definitely some time
Speaker 2: for him, and obviously.
Speaker 3: Houston great place for him to be.
Speaker 2: They've definitely done a lot of good with pitching and
Speaker 2: gotten the most out of guys and gotten more out
Speaker 2: of them than I think anybody even expected. But with him,
Speaker 2: like the walk rate just remains super high. And even
Speaker 2: though the k rate went up this year, a lot
Speaker 2: of the whift rates on his offerings are actually down,
Speaker 2: which is kind of weird to see, but you know,
Speaker 2: the whift rate overall is down, but he's got the
Speaker 2: k rate up a little bit. But I think there's
Speaker 2: just so many things working against him where he'll improve
Speaker 2: in one area a year over year, but then go
Speaker 2: he'll revert back in another area. So it's almost like,
Speaker 2: you know, the improvements kind of get canceled out, and
Speaker 2: you know, with the other metrics that are going the
Speaker 2: opposite way. And you know, maybeybe if he was a
Speaker 2: guy that could, you know, be around the zone a
Speaker 2: little bit more, I'd be a little bit more intrigued.
Speaker 2: But you know, at this point, the only Baty's really,
Speaker 2: the only pitch he's really missing a lot of bats
Speaker 2: with this year is the curveball. You know, the sinkers
Speaker 2: getting hit around a bit, and there's not a lot
Speaker 2: of good whip rates elsewhere, So I don't know. I mean,
Speaker 2: it's great to see him limiting hard contact. That's great,
Speaker 2: but also to that hasn't really been a lot of
Speaker 2: other things to get excited about. The chase rates not
Speaker 2: great again, the walk rate's pretty high. I don't know,
Speaker 2: x Cira is even higher than his four thirty four
Speaker 2: surface the ra. So this guy that's always been like
Speaker 2: that one three to one four whip rate range, So
Speaker 2: I don't know. He kind of feels like a poor
Speaker 2: man's mackenzie Gore. And I'm not really a mackenzie Gore
Speaker 2: a guy either, So I'm not really super intrigued here.
Speaker 3: Maybe maybe with some tweaks I could see.
Speaker 2: Something be unlocked, but until then I'll let them be
Speaker 2: on somebody else's team.
Speaker 1: Yeah, when rich mackenzie Gore is not worth being on
Speaker 1: your team is most of the time I'm poor man's
Speaker 1: McKenzie as well. I have to agree. There. One more
Speaker 1: guy I want to talk about in this area in
Speaker 1: particular is Nick Martinez, who's having one of these shocking
Speaker 1: type of years. Edwardao Rodriguez is also kind of doing
Speaker 1: it in the National League, but the insane like era
Speaker 1: level surface stats that are not supported at all below
Speaker 1: the surface a two fifty nine ERA and a one
Speaker 1: to twelve whip with a nine percent strikeout to walk rate.
Speaker 1: He's only striking out thirteen percent of batters. And yet
Speaker 1: we look here at the leader board of hard hit
Speaker 1: rates and he's only allowed one hundred and twenty hard
Speaker 1: hits the entirety of the season thirty two percent. It
Speaker 1: is the seventh best or sixth best mark among all
Speaker 1: qualified starters. I feel like that's probably a big reason
Speaker 1: why he's having success. But he usually has a pretty
Speaker 1: low heart hit rate, and while he's usually pretty good,
Speaker 1: it's not usually this good. Eric, do you think that
Speaker 1: this is just pure dumb luck or is there something
Speaker 1: tangible that Nick Martinez is doing this year that you
Speaker 1: think could lead to more sustained success.
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of luck that's gone in
Speaker 2: Nick Martinez a season. It's funny too, like every year,
Speaker 2: I'm sure, I'm sure you do this too, Joe and
Speaker 2: Plinty of other people like us, where it's like you'll
Speaker 2: see a guy it'll be like mid season you'll be like,
Speaker 2: holy crap, like this guy is doing that, and like
Speaker 2: Nick Martinez was one of like I had that realization.
Speaker 2: I think it was like mid to late June, like
Speaker 2: you know, maybe a little bout a month ago or so,
Speaker 2: where I'm like, man, he's like one of like the
Speaker 2: lowest era guys in the American League. He's nine and
Speaker 2: two right now, and it's like, man, this guy is
Speaker 2: having a really phenomenal season. I mean Tampa Bay, I
Speaker 2: mean they seem to always work there kind of voodoo magic.
Speaker 2: But I don't see this make maintaining. He's definitely a
Speaker 2: guy like you know, sell if you're in leagues to
Speaker 2: have trades. Obviously the NFBC doesn't, but Yahoo leagues or
Speaker 2: ESPN leagues or like a Dynasty league on fan tracks
Speaker 2: or whatever. This is like a prime sell high candidate
Speaker 2: because you know, like all the all the era indicators
Speaker 2: are like two runs highers xc ra's four sixty two,
Speaker 2: and it's just yeah, it's just everything does not signal
Speaker 2: that this is legit. I mean, it's it's gone on
Speaker 2: a lot longer than I thought, and I thought this
Speaker 2: era would kind of go up from where it was
Speaker 2: earlier in the season. But the thing with think Martinez,
Speaker 2: he doesn't miss any bats, but he also doesn't only
Speaker 2: walk anybody either. Two of the last three years he's
Speaker 2: had to walk right under five percent. This year it's
Speaker 2: four point four percent. So yeah, he's a fine guy
Speaker 2: for the Rays to have and a guy that can
Speaker 2: eat innings. But for fantasy, I mean, as soon as
Speaker 2: that Eira starts going up, even if it's just up
Speaker 2: a run to the mid threes, it's having that really
Speaker 2: and not even below average. It's like a really poor,
Speaker 2: you know, thirteen point seven percent straight up rate. He
Speaker 2: becomes almost a guy that's not even worth using. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I can't see this continue.
Speaker 1: It's a full fade for me next year, whatever the
Speaker 1: price ends up being. I mean, the market's pretty sharp
Speaker 1: these days. So maybe he's not going to be a
Speaker 1: top hunterd pick or anything. I don't expect that. But
Speaker 1: wherever he goes, I think it'll probably be too high.
Speaker 1: This just it feels like dumb luck. It really does.
Speaker 1: The eighty five percent strand rate fairly low. Babbi. It's
Speaker 1: not supported in reality. I mean it has been so far,
Speaker 1: so who am I to say it's not supporting reality?
Speaker 1: But I don't think this is something we can expect
Speaker 1: to maintain throughout the rest of the season. One more
Speaker 1: leaderboard I want to go through with you, and it's expected, wOBA,
Speaker 1: And I think a lot of people will say, what
Speaker 1: the hell's expected, wOBA? Why we have a new stat here?
Speaker 1: It's becoming more prevalent, and I think it's something that
Speaker 1: we really should pay attention to. It essentially measures a
Speaker 1: hitter's skill or a pictuer skill and the skills he
Speaker 1: allows against based on exit velocity. Launch angle, strikeout to
Speaker 1: walk rate, sprint speed. It goes beyond the box score,
Speaker 1: and it's become a stat that I look at quite
Speaker 1: a bit. You look at the top of the leaderboard.
Speaker 1: It makes a lot of sense too. I like looking
Speaker 1: at a leaderboard and it's like, Yeah, these guys should
Speaker 1: be at the top of the best pitcher's leaderboard. Essentially,
Speaker 1: it's miss Rowski, Zach Wheeler, Shoheo, Tani, Paul Skins, and
Speaker 1: then Azus Walzardo, which is where we'll stop here because
Speaker 1: Azu Wzzardo has turned things around over the last month
Speaker 1: or so and he's been really, really good. We haven't
Speaker 1: seen one of those patented Hadesu Sozardo blow ups since
Speaker 1: early June, but it always feels like it's coming. There
Speaker 1: is three four five starts this year where he's allowed
Speaker 1: at least five earned runs, and what it feels like,
Speaker 1: even going back to last year, is that Lozardo will
Speaker 1: give you five clean ones and then they'll give up
Speaker 1: seven earned runs and just destroy all the good will
Speaker 1: he's earned. But this talent level, I think it doesn't
Speaker 1: indicate that he should have these type of blow ups.
Speaker 1: He's got really good strike out to walk greats, really
Speaker 1: good expected stats, great stuff. And yet we're looking at
Speaker 1: a guy who's had a sub one whip in his
Speaker 1: career exactly one time. So is as Wizardo a little
Speaker 1: bit overrated? Is he just unlucky with these blow ups?
Speaker 1: I truly don't really know what to make of him anymore, Eric,
Speaker 1: But right now he's been great. I just I just
Speaker 1: don't know how long that could last without seven earn
Speaker 1: runs hitting, hitting my fantasy teams.
Speaker 2: Man, I feel like he's like the only guy in
Speaker 2: baseball that's both underrated and overrated, if that makes any sense,
Speaker 2: Because Lozardo, I mean, I can never figure this guy out.
Speaker 2: You look at you go to Savant. Outside of you know,
Speaker 2: being one of the worst in the league in terms
Speaker 2: of extension, there's a lot of red on there in
Speaker 2: terms of you know, missing bats, she's getting chase strikeouts,
Speaker 2: quality of contact allowed, ground balls. Like this is a
Speaker 2: guy where you if you just looked at the Savant sliders,
Speaker 2: you'd be like, all right, this guy is a cy
Speaker 2: young candidate. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball,
Speaker 2: and at times he has looked that way. And then
Speaker 2: you mentioned he just has like this either one start
Speaker 2: or a couple of start stretchs that just wipes out
Speaker 2: all the good. And I'm sure you probably just chinks
Speaker 2: to him saying that he hasn't a U bloupe in
Speaker 2: a while, and he's like eight eight earned and two
Speaker 2: and a third is next time out. But he's a
Speaker 2: guy where I feel like, I mean, even I Likelizardo.
Speaker 2: I've always had de dating back to his prospect days
Speaker 2: with the Athletics handful of years back. I've always been
Speaker 2: super intrigued by Lizardo, but I kind of stayed away
Speaker 2: earlier in his career because just the durability kind of
Speaker 2: scared me off. But now since he's kind of been
Speaker 2: you know, kind of putting that hid them, he's been
Speaker 2: pretty healthy for the last.
Speaker 3: Couple of years.
Speaker 2: It's just he's super inconsistent, like you mentioned, And I
Speaker 2: feel like there's always at least one, usually multiple people
Speaker 2: in every league. I'm in that just like Wizardo. More so,
Speaker 2: I couldn't even tell you the last time I had
Speaker 2: a share of Hazel Cizarro. I'd be intrigued if he
Speaker 2: fell into a ranger. You know, I'm more comfortable in
Speaker 2: taking him, but you know, you look at the profile,
Speaker 2: it's really really sexy for lack of a better term,
Speaker 2: and you know, this year, it's just red across the board. Hopefully,
Speaker 2: you know, finally, and he's still twenty eight. I was like,
Speaker 2: he should be like in his early thirties at this point.
Speaker 2: But so hopefully this is like, you know, maybe a
Speaker 2: little bit of a late twenties like finally putting it
Speaker 2: all together type of thing that we've seen, you know,
Speaker 2: other guys have in the past. I'm hoping because if
Speaker 2: you can just get a consistent Lozardo for a full
Speaker 2: year without all the blow ups, I think you could
Speaker 2: look at you know, this guy has fantasy ace potential,
Speaker 2: so you know, maybe this is him finally realizing it,
Speaker 2: and you know, if he finished the season strong and
Speaker 2: you know, kind of maintains that low three era bunch
Speaker 2: of strikeouts, maybe gets that whipped a little bit lower,
Speaker 2: like to the you know, one fifteen to one twenty range.
Speaker 2: Probably a guy that maybe he isn't drafted as an
Speaker 2: ACE next year, but I bet you he'd be an
Speaker 2: SB two territory for sure, and probably high end SB
Speaker 2: two territories.
Speaker 3: So we'll see.
Speaker 2: But I'm sorry, I feel a little bit better about Lozardo,
Speaker 2: but I want to see him finish the year strong
Speaker 2: and then maybe i'll invest next year.
Speaker 1: It's kind of where I'm at too. We'll see if
Speaker 1: he ends up with the four point two ERA and
Speaker 1: twenty five whip, then we'll see maybe that'll keep the
Speaker 1: price down. But he's he's a very, very polarizing player.
Speaker 1: I think he is probably the most underrated and overrated
Speaker 1: player simultaneously in the BIGS. Peyton Totley is the next
Speaker 1: thing I want to talk about here. I have been
Speaker 1: so impressed and I'm also so shocked that he didn't
Speaker 1: make the team at a camp and start the year
Speaker 1: in the rotation. But three thirty one ERA over eighty
Speaker 1: nine innings, a one to ten whip, twenty six percent
Speaker 1: strikeout right, and if you go to the offerings, this
Speaker 1: four seemer has a sixteen percent swing and miss Hutter
Speaker 1: has a seventeen percent curveball twenty two percent.
Speaker 3: It's a deep arsenal.
Speaker 1: If you look at stuff ratings, all of his pitches
Speaker 1: great out at least average. It's one fourteen stuff plus
Speaker 1: one ten pitching plus. I think Peyton Toley is maybe
Speaker 1: the next superstar. Lefty is that overstating it a little
Speaker 1: bit here. If you look at the XOBO leaderboard, he
Speaker 1: is top ten in baseball so far and he's actually eighth,
Speaker 1: sitting between Dylan Cees and Cam Schlitler right now. Pretty
Speaker 1: good company to have. So is he should we be
Speaker 1: talking about him potentially in those like Cy Young conversations
Speaker 1: for this year if he finishes right.
Speaker 2: I don't know if he'll get enough volume to finish
Speaker 2: those conversations, but it is pretty fun that he's right
Speaker 2: in the between two guys that are kind of leading
Speaker 2: the way in terms of the the American League SI
Speaker 2: Young picture at this point in time with season with Splitler,
Speaker 2: so yeah, with with Peyton Totley, obviously with me being
Speaker 2: a Red Sox fan, he's a guy who's you know,
Speaker 2: career through the minors. I followed more closely and I
Speaker 2: got to see him a little bit up here in
Speaker 2: Double A. You know, was that last year year before,
Speaker 2: and he's a guy that was just really really exciting
Speaker 2: from the get go, guy that I was really pumped
Speaker 2: to see the Red Sox get in the draft, and
Speaker 2: he's just continued to even exceed all the lofty expectations
Speaker 2: that were put upon him when he was drafted and
Speaker 2: then when he became one of the best, you know,
Speaker 2: prospects in the game on the pitching side. So I
Speaker 2: think there's a lot to like here. I mean, he's
Speaker 2: very fastball heavy, you know, four seams, sinker cutter, that's
Speaker 2: about eighty eight, eighty nine percent whatever it is of
Speaker 2: his arsenal that he'll mix in a curve and a changeup.
Speaker 2: But you know, the thing is that he mentioned this
Speaker 2: past offseason that he wanted to be a more well
Speaker 2: rounded guy with his arsenal, and he's definitely been more
Speaker 2: well rounded this year. At times, he'll get kind of
Speaker 2: get back into that four seam heavy approach, but hey,
Speaker 2: it's a really good four seamer, as you mentioned, so
Speaker 2: it's not a bad pitch to go too often. But
Speaker 2: that curve ball getting mixed in is really exciting because
Speaker 2: that that's a forty six percent.
Speaker 3: Whip rate on the curveball.
Speaker 2: A guy that can miss bats, he can you know,
Speaker 2: he can limit the hard contact. He you know, keeps
Speaker 2: the walk rate and check only a seven percent walk
Speaker 2: rate too, and all the era indicators and everything like
Speaker 2: that kind of backs up what he's showing on the
Speaker 2: surface and just like you know, for me again watching
Speaker 2: basically everyone of his starts, being a fan of the team.
Speaker 3: He pitches for. He's legit, like he passes the eye
Speaker 3: test to.
Speaker 2: Where he has that that bulldog demeanor that you just
Speaker 2: love to see. Like he's out there, he knows he's good,
Speaker 2: and he knows how to attack and then what he
Speaker 2: wants to do in any given start. So yeah, I
Speaker 2: think this's the the just the beginning of a really
Speaker 2: really good career for Peyton Totley. And yeah, if he
Speaker 2: finishes the season kind of similarly with how he's been
Speaker 2: the last few months after he got caught up in
Speaker 2: late April, you know, I mean, maybe he's getting up
Speaker 2: near one hundred and thirty hundred and forty innings, a
Speaker 2: low three era, you know, one ten whip, above average
Speaker 2: k rate, and a good walk rate. It's probably a
Speaker 2: guy that pushes top one hundred ADP next year, maybe
Speaker 2: even cracks that seventy five to ninety range where he's
Speaker 2: like in round.
Speaker 3: Six or seven something like that.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think that the price cycle will be high,
Speaker 2: but I'll be investing if I can get him next
Speaker 2: year as.
Speaker 3: My SP two.
Speaker 2: If I especially if I go the sp one that is,
Speaker 2: you know, pretty safe, pretty chalky, where I'm like, all right,
Speaker 2: I can maybe go the younger upside guy. Hey, if
Speaker 2: that worked a lot this year, if you were getting
Speaker 2: like Chase Burns is your SP two or even Missier Rowski,
Speaker 2: Nolan McLean, all these guys you know, for the most part,
Speaker 2: were worked out.
Speaker 3: So I'm not a post of that strategy in general.
Speaker 2: And I think Peyton Toley will be in that range
Speaker 2: a couple one hundred ish ADP next year and I'll
Speaker 2: be buying in.
Speaker 1: I can totally see it, and I agree that I've
Speaker 1: fallen in love with the guy. And for me to
Speaker 1: fall in love with the Red Sox player, it takes
Speaker 1: quite a bit for any player here, but just seeing
Speaker 1: him get interviewed and he's got such a great personality.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, love, I love the mustache. It's something that
Speaker 1: should be more prevalent. And what it reminds me of
Speaker 1: is Ron Swanson from Parks and Recreation. Ohm's character that
Speaker 1: is so spot on.
Speaker 2: But yeah, just like Peyton Toley, he's a guy that's
Speaker 2: already become one of my favorite players in baseball, and
Speaker 2: I think he's already become a huge fan favorite here
Speaker 2: in Boston and just in New England in general, everyone
Speaker 2: seems to love him.
Speaker 3: The stash is great.
Speaker 2: He's a guy that I mean, I'm not comparing him
Speaker 2: to this guy, but his demeanor is almost kind of
Speaker 2: reminds me of Pedro back in the day, where it's like,
Speaker 2: in between starts, you know Pedro and totally they're They're
Speaker 2: very laid back, they're a goofball. There's a good, high
Speaker 2: spirit guy that's laughing, joking. But when it's their data pitch,
Speaker 2: they lock in. They're there to do their job and
Speaker 2: strike out and get batters out. So I love that
Speaker 2: mentality where you give me loose, you have the four
Speaker 2: or five days between starts, but on on game day
Speaker 2: when it's his turn in the rotation, he locks in.
Speaker 2: And obviously the talent is pretty damn could as well.
Speaker 2: So yeah, everything about Peyton Toley I love. He's just
Speaker 2: one of my favorite players already.
Speaker 1: He's terrific and it pains me to love an ALIAS
Speaker 1: player who's not a blue Jay, but that's what he's done,
Speaker 1: and he's done in the span of half a year.
Speaker 1: He's a pretty endearing guy. Eric, I've kept you way
Speaker 1: longer than I anticipated, But I just got one more
Speaker 1: group of players. I'll let you pick it whoever you like.
Speaker 1: But looking at this top fifteen leader board, you know
Speaker 1: the seasons, the schal Hitler's, the Schoobles, the Burns. Is
Speaker 1: you m modo? No surprise is there? The names that
Speaker 1: might be a little bit surprised. And the people are
Speaker 1: Casey Mice, Parker Messic and Reed Deptmers. My is having
Speaker 1: a really good season, Messik having a really good season
Speaker 1: as well. Deptmers Eh kind of what we've come to
Speaker 1: grow accustomed to with Reed Deptmer some good and some bad.
Speaker 1: Are these three guys that you think by twenty twenty
Speaker 1: seven will be breakout type of starting pitchers just based
Speaker 1: on the fact that they are amongst the ninetieth percentile
Speaker 1: XUOBBA leaders.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: The name here that kind of six up the most
Speaker 2: to me that I feel like it's still flying under
Speaker 2: the radar even though he's a rookie with a sub
Speaker 2: three er, And that's Parker Messek with Cleveland. I mean,
Speaker 2: he's a guy where I mean I think the big
Speaker 2: reason why he's undervalued he doesn't throw hard. He's in
Speaker 2: that ninety three ninety four mile an hour range. But
Speaker 2: he's got a deep arsenal and he limits you know,
Speaker 2: he does a lot of things, well, he doesn't.
Speaker 3: It's almost like, what's that.
Speaker 2: That term like the jack of all trades but a
Speaker 2: master of nunners whatever that is.
Speaker 3: I might have butchered that a little bit.
Speaker 2: But he doesn't like a lot of things well without
Speaker 2: just truly standing out in anyone area. But you know
Speaker 2: he limits hard contact. Well, he's inn above average k rate,
Speaker 2: you know, a good walk rate as well, all the
Speaker 2: eerra indicators are pretty low in like the low threes
Speaker 2: as well. He can miss bats, he can get the
Speaker 2: chase rate, you know, chase rates you know, above above
Speaker 2: thirty percent. You know, limits contact in the zone fairly
Speaker 2: well too. So yeah, I think he's a guy that
Speaker 2: just gets undervalued. I mean everyone kind of looks at
Speaker 2: Gavin Williams, who's a lot more appealing and fun to watch,
Speaker 2: but Messic's really solid. So yeah, he's definitely a god.
Speaker 2: That's you know, I'll be investiga. I feel like the
Speaker 2: price tag will always be you know, fairly reasonable. You know,
Speaker 2: obviously it'll be a lot higher next year than this year,
Speaker 2: but you know, I don't think it's going to be
Speaker 2: to the point where it's crazy. I think it will
Speaker 2: still be pretty reasonable. And yeah, I think this being
Speaker 2: on this leaderboard is another example, kind of with all
Speaker 2: the other things I just said of is how solid
Speaker 2: Parker Mesic is another success story from this Cleveland org.
Speaker 2: I mean, add him to the long, long list of
Speaker 2: success stories on the pitching side for this Cleveland team.
Speaker 2: And yeah, I'm definitely going to be an investing in
Speaker 2: him moving forward.
Speaker 1: Something that's become a bigger part of my process is
Speaker 1: the depth of the arsenal, and over the last couple
Speaker 1: of years, stuff plus has kind of taken the world
Speaker 1: by storm. We've had it publicly since twenty twenty two ish,
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, something like that, And I feel like
Speaker 1: over the last four years or so, it's become very
Speaker 1: prevalent in analysis, and it's something that I use. Don't
Speaker 1: get me wrong, but a guy like Parker Messik throws
Speaker 1: six pitches, not a single one of them grades out
Speaker 1: as average, And I think a lot of people would say,
Speaker 1: all right, he doesn't throw it terribly hard. The stuff's
Speaker 1: not that great. We throw them away. No no interest
Speaker 1: here long term, not that I'm saying that, but I
Speaker 1: feel like the average might say that. But then you
Speaker 1: look at the swinging strike rates on the individual pitches
Speaker 1: the usage behind them, and there's four pitches that have
Speaker 1: at least a twelve percent swinging strike rate. The sinker
Speaker 1: and the curveball are not as high, but he locates
Speaker 1: them well. And when you have six pitches that you
Speaker 1: can go to with regularity, it doesn't matter to me
Speaker 1: as much if you're huge stuff. God, you know, not
Speaker 1: everybody can be Strider with the one thirty seven fastball
Speaker 1: and the one thirty two slider and then that's it
Speaker 1: and you're good. Foster Griffin, Davis Martin. There's a lot
Speaker 1: of guys this year who've had success with the depth
Speaker 1: of the arsenal, even if they're not the typical stuff.
Speaker 4: God.
Speaker 1: So something else to keep in mind. But Eric, like
Speaker 1: I said, I kept you way longer than anticipated. Apologies
Speaker 1: on that front, but it's just because I love talking
Speaker 1: with you so much. I love getting in these conversations.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for taking the time today. Please
Speaker 1: let everybody know where they can keep up with your work.
Speaker 1: You're really doing great stuff in the Dynasty space.
Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks man, always a pledge. I always enjoy talking
Speaker 2: with you, Sally. This this hour, just this flu bay.
Speaker 2: We could have gone another hour, I feel. But yeah,
Speaker 2: I always appreciate talking with you and just chatting, chatting baseball,
Speaker 2: you know. Follow me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB.
Speaker 2: I do a couple of articles a week over on rollabar,
Speaker 2: and then obviously all my stuff on my Patreon. All
Speaker 2: my rankings are on there. I do close to daily
Speaker 2: write ups, a piece called I call cross examination, where
Speaker 2: I'll just look at you know. Usually it's twelve thirteen
Speaker 2: players between the majors and minors that you did well
Speaker 2: the previous day or not so well sometimes and I
Speaker 2: guess I just wrote up like Landing Group was one
Speaker 2: of the guys I wrote up.
Speaker 3: Today after I start yesterday.
Speaker 2: So it's a fun little piece I look at where
Speaker 2: I can just dive into some players each day. But yeah,
Speaker 2: I appreciate you having me on and hopefully we can
Speaker 2: have a nice end of the season here.
Speaker 1: Absolutely, my friend. Hopefully we all win our leagues over
Speaker 1: the next couple of months. Looking forward to seeing you
Speaker 1: out in the desert. I assume you'll be at f
Speaker 1: PAZ again. Oh yeah, I don't know how many years
Speaker 1: you've been going. This will be my fifth year though,
Speaker 1: so I'll really looking forward to it. Make sure you
Speaker 1: guys are checking that out. If you guys have never
Speaker 1: been out there before. It's a great weekend of baseball
Speaker 1: and beer and panels and beer and a lot of
Speaker 1: fun stuff. So make sure you guys are checking that
Speaker 1: one out. But we will bet on Monday for leading
Speaker 1: off leave It's myself in the Welsh, but I'll have
Speaker 1: to double check. It's a bit of a rotating cast
Speaker 1: of characters here throughout the rest of July, but that
Speaker 1: will do it for us for today. Make sure you
Speaker 1: guys are subscribed to the podcast, like comment to all
Speaker 1: that great stuff for Eric Cross, I am Joel Rico.
Speaker 1: We'll talk to you next time right here on the
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros Baseball Podcast. Take it easy, everybody.
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