WEBVTT - The Statcast Cheat Code: Fantasy Baseball Advanced Stats Deep Dive with Eric Cross (Ep. 1348) 0:00:05.280 --> 0:00:08.240 What's going on? Everybody. Welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is 0:00:08.280 --> 0:00:11.440 the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I'm your host, Joe Rico, and 0:00:11.480 --> 0:00:14.640 today we're gonna take a look into statcast highlights. Some 0:00:14.680 --> 0:00:16.439 guys at the top of leaderboards, some names that you 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:18.479 might not expect to see a top of leaderboards, some 0:00:18.640 --> 0:00:21.160 maybe you will. But we're going to go through seven 0:00:21.239 --> 0:00:23.840 key statistics, both for hitters and pitchers today and I 0:00:23.880 --> 0:00:26.920 am joined by a phenomenal guest, a dear old friend 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:29.880 from the fantasy space, Eric Cross. You can find him 0:00:29.880 --> 0:00:32.680 as the lead MLB writer at Rotoballer. He hosts the 0:00:32.680 --> 0:00:35.280 tool Shed podcast and he was also the twenty twenty 0:00:35.280 --> 0:00:38.800 one FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year. Eric. Great to 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:40.199 have you on the show. I think this first time 0:00:40.200 --> 0:00:42.480 I've had you on the Fantasy Pros podcast. We've obviously 0:00:42.520 --> 0:00:43.920 done a lot of shows over the years, but first 0:00:43.920 --> 0:00:45.960 time on this network. Great to have you on. My friend. 0:00:45.960 --> 0:00:47.559 How you been doing, Yeah. 0:00:47.360 --> 0:00:50.360 And doing great, Joe, hopefully you're doing great as well. 0:00:50.440 --> 0:00:52.120 I know you guys have been dealing with some some 0:00:52.240 --> 0:00:55.440 crazy stuff up there over the last few weeks. But yeah, 0:00:55.520 --> 0:00:57.080 I mean we were just talking before we hit record. 0:00:57.120 --> 0:00:59.080 It's been a crazy few weeks for all of us. 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:01.959 I feel it's weird to think that we're almost into 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:05.399 August now and summer's already you know, over half over, 0:01:05.520 --> 0:01:07.240 and then baseball seasons and like the you know, the 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:10.000 final third, final stretch run here. But yeah, I'm really 0:01:10.040 --> 0:01:12.160 excited to hop on and it's always good talking with 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:14.160 you and dig into some stack cast. 0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:17.640 Eric is one of the one of the absolute best. 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:19.880 More known for the prospect space, you should follow him 0:01:19.880 --> 0:01:22.920 at Aeric Cross MLB. I still do Airic Cross zero 0:01:23.000 --> 0:01:26.040 four in my head. The old Eric Cross MLB is 0:01:26.040 --> 0:01:28.720 where you can follow him phenomenal prospect and dynasty work. 0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:30.280 Today we're going to go a little bit more on 0:01:30.319 --> 0:01:33.080 the redraft sphere, but also we probably get some dynasty 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:35.679 takes as well, knowing Eric and his expertise, and we're 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:38.839 going to start off today looking at the heading side, 0:01:38.880 --> 0:01:41.399 and we're going to start with the average exit velocity 0:01:41.480 --> 0:01:44.120 leader board. A lot of names that you would expect 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:46.800 at the top O'Neil Cruz ninety six miles an hour, 0:01:47.040 --> 0:01:50.360 James Wood ninety five point two, Jordan Alvarez ninety four 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:53.840 point six, Ellie Della Cruz, Aaron Judge. Those names are 0:01:53.880 --> 0:01:56.000 all expected to be at the top of these leader boards, 0:01:56.040 --> 0:01:58.160 and then we get into some interesting names as we 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:02.680 continue to go down. Jordan Walker, Una Taka Murakami, Jack Cagleon, 0:02:03.160 --> 0:02:06.360 Dominic can Zone also on the top of the leaderboard. 0:02:06.440 --> 0:02:10.320 Looking at the top fifteen names here, Eric is average 0:02:10.360 --> 0:02:12.360 exit velocity is something that you pay a lot of 0:02:12.400 --> 0:02:15.480 attention to in your analysis, and also looking at this 0:02:15.560 --> 0:02:18.000 list of names, who are the guys that really stand 0:02:18.040 --> 0:02:20.920 out to you that you'd like to break down today. Yeah, no, 0:02:21.080 --> 0:02:22.120 I definitely. 0:02:21.720 --> 0:02:22.680 Pay attention to it. 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:25.120 I mean I don't think it's you know, the be 0:02:25.280 --> 0:02:27.200 all end all, so to speak, because obviously there's a 0:02:27.240 --> 0:02:30.840 lot more that goes into, you know, evaluating a player's powers, 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:33.200 you know, looking at obviously hard hit rate, barrel rate, 0:02:33.560 --> 0:02:36.040 some bad at ball angles as well, which actually kind 0:02:36.040 --> 0:02:39.240 of ties into the name that immediately stood out to me, 0:02:39.400 --> 0:02:41.160 and you know, he's in the midst of having a 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:41.919 breakout year. 0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:44.320 Finally, Jordan Walker. 0:02:44.520 --> 0:02:46.320 It feels like he's been around forever and he's still 0:02:46.320 --> 0:02:48.360 only twenty four years old, which is just crazy to 0:02:48.400 --> 0:02:48.880 think about. 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:50.639 But yeah, he's just. 0:02:50.680 --> 0:02:53.639 Near in the top of every every leaderboard that has 0:02:53.680 --> 0:02:55.840 to do with just hitting the ball hard. 0:02:56.760 --> 0:02:59.359 He's either at the top or near the top. You know. 0:02:59.360 --> 0:03:01.160 I think average TV's actually the one he ranks the 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:04.400 highest and ninety eighth percentile at ninety three point nine 0:03:04.440 --> 0:03:07.160 miles an hour. But it's it's been really fun to 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:10.280 watch his kind of breakout season this year. I mean, 0:03:10.520 --> 0:03:12.720 I mean, especially those of us that kind of followed 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:14.800 him through you know, the prospect ranks and when he 0:03:14.840 --> 0:03:16.920 was drafted, like there's always a lot of hype, and 0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:19.440 he was a very highly ranked prospect and then he 0:03:19.480 --> 0:03:21.520 had that you know, two homer game and we were 0:03:21.520 --> 0:03:24.280 down there at First Pitch, Florida. That's in spring training, 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:27.120 and the hype only grew and then unfortunately hasn't only 0:03:27.160 --> 0:03:29.880 gone so well up until this year. But I mean 0:03:30.160 --> 0:03:32.880 just looking at how hard he's hitting the ball and 0:03:32.919 --> 0:03:36.120 then tying it in with the better batted ball angles 0:03:36.480 --> 0:03:39.680 he has this year. The air rate is up, you know, 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:42.520 the pole rate is up, pole air rate as well, 0:03:42.920 --> 0:03:45.800 just really allowing him to kind of take advantage of 0:03:46.080 --> 0:03:48.400 the elite root he's always had, Like he's always hit 0:03:48.400 --> 0:03:49.840 the ball hard. I mean last year it was ninety 0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:52.120 two point three miles an hours, like he's always hit 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:54.320 the ball hard, it's just he's hitting the ball hard 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:58.440 at better angles to kind of maximize that power. And 0:03:58.440 --> 0:04:01.119 then he hit the ball over the fence much more consistently. 0:04:01.280 --> 0:04:04.760 So I think there was some skepticism earlier in the year, like, oh, wait, 0:04:04.760 --> 0:04:06.640 you know it's going to fall off, He'll revert back 0:04:06.680 --> 0:04:09.640 to the old Walker. But hey, we're about the I think, 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:12.000 pushing the two third mark of the season here, so 0:04:12.520 --> 0:04:15.680 and he's on about like what a thirty five you know, 0:04:15.720 --> 0:04:18.599 Homer twenty two steel pace with a twoity nine average. 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:20.800 So yeah, I'm I think at this point we can 0:04:20.839 --> 0:04:24.120 start saying that, you know, the breakout for Walker is legit, 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:26.720 and you know this, you know this elite versions here 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:27.119 to stay. 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:30.960 Is this something I guess you kind of answered it. 0:04:31.279 --> 0:04:34.160 So heading into next year, assuming Walker finishes out as 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:37.560 like a second round first round value, is that where 0:04:37.560 --> 0:04:40.160 he will end up being ranked when it comes to redraft, 0:04:40.240 --> 0:04:42.520 startup dynasty leagues? Is this a guy that you think 0:04:42.560 --> 0:04:45.280 is worthy of a first round pick going forward, regardless 0:04:45.320 --> 0:04:45.799 of format. 0:04:47.600 --> 0:04:49.120 I don't know if I would say first round. 0:04:49.120 --> 0:04:51.400 I think there's just so many other names that are 0:04:51.440 --> 0:04:54.359 in consideration that, I think people will feel a little 0:04:54.400 --> 0:04:58.040 bit safer about taking you know, like Junior, Cameronaro, Nick Kurtz, 0:04:58.120 --> 0:05:00.359 guys like that, and then obviously all you other studs 0:05:00.400 --> 0:05:02.560 that are already up there and have been for a 0:05:02.560 --> 0:05:04.839 couple of years now. But I think second round, like 0:05:05.080 --> 0:05:06.880 you know, early to the mid part of the second round, 0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:08.960 so like in the fifteen teamer, I can see the 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:11.880 ADP being in the vicinity of like, you know, nineteen 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:13.960 to twenty two, somewhere in that range kind of the 0:05:14.000 --> 0:05:16.560 middle part of that round. You know, maybe bumped up 0:05:16.560 --> 0:05:18.960 a few spots in a dynasty format because of the 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:21.960 age and you know, the long term projection. But you know, 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:25.200 I feel confident that, you know, in those gains that 0:05:25.200 --> 0:05:27.880 he's had this year, I mean, it can always revert back. 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:29.880 I mean, I think vladimirker Road Junior. I hate to 0:05:29.880 --> 0:05:32.560 bring him up, but he's like a perfect you know, 0:05:33.080 --> 0:05:36.120 you know, you know case right where he still hits 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:38.039 small hard, but now the angle has halping been great 0:05:38.080 --> 0:05:39.760 this year and it's kind of gone back down in 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:43.479 the terms of you know, home runs. So yeah, it's 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:47.640 really exciting, but you know, hopefully he can keep these 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:49.279 sticking going for By, I can see, I can see 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:51.279 second round long term for him. 0:05:52.160 --> 0:05:54.880 I would do unspeakable things to have vladimirker Ro Junior 0:05:54.880 --> 0:05:57.080 with an eleven degree launch angle and hitting the ball 0:05:57.120 --> 0:05:59.480 in the air more. I hope that it comes eventually, 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:03.320 doesn't look like it's coming imminently. I agree that the 0:06:03.400 --> 0:06:06.120 talent is there for Vlatty to hit you. The forty 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:09.120 homers give you the thirty five plus MVP type of season. 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:11.599 I mean, he had an MVP type of season in 0:06:11.640 --> 0:06:13.640 twenty one and then had another one in twenty four. 0:06:13.680 --> 0:06:17.520 But the last year in particular has been awful for Vlatty. 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:20.640 But Jordan Walker, on a brighter note, has just been phenomenal. 0:06:20.680 --> 0:06:23.080 If anybody picked him up at the end of you know, 0:06:23.240 --> 0:06:25.800 the first couple of weeks waiver wires or fab or 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:27.680 maybe he was their last pick in their draft, he 0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:31.000 is really truly paid off and another guy going down 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:33.159 this leaderboard. He appears on a lot of the leaderboards 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:36.360 we're gonna talk about today. But Munataka Murakami, I think 0:06:36.520 --> 0:06:40.120 nobody was really expecting this level of production. Maybe they were, 0:06:40.520 --> 0:06:43.520 but a forty plus homer pace without being a huge 0:06:43.640 --> 0:06:46.560 negative in the batting average area. I think that a 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:49.320 lot of people are surprised with Murakami's pace, and I 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:51.039 think a lot of it comes down to just how 0:06:51.080 --> 0:06:53.919 hard he hits the ball ninety three point eight miles 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:58.000 an hour, average exit velocity, nineteen percent barrel, fifteen percent 0:06:58.080 --> 0:06:59.599 heart hit rate. It covers up a lot of the 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:01.840 other laws in terms of the contact rates and the 0:07:01.880 --> 0:07:04.680 swing and miss. Is Murakami a guy that you were 0:07:04.720 --> 0:07:06.680 in on coming into the season, and do you think 0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:09.400 that this is kind of the baseline expectation for him 0:07:09.440 --> 0:07:12.080 going forward? Still just twenty six years old. Is this 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:13.960 a guy that you would put down for forty home 0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:16.480 runs every single season and a two thirty type of 0:07:16.480 --> 0:07:18.800 batting average? I guess is this the new Kyle Schwarber. 0:07:19.760 --> 0:07:22.160 I mean it might be because once you factor in 0:07:23.000 --> 0:07:25.000 the high walk rate that he brings as well, I 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:27.360 mean nearly twenty percent walker rate too. 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:30.280 So yeah, he's a guy entering the year I was. 0:07:30.520 --> 0:07:32.520 I was so all over the place on him, and 0:07:32.760 --> 0:07:35.240 I'm sure I wasn't the only one, because it's a 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:38.840 very kind of all over the place profile. And I 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:42.440 think everything that we kind of thoughts about Murakami all 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:45.280 the pros, all the cons they've all been on a 0:07:45.320 --> 0:07:47.720 full display, like to the max. So I'm both on 0:07:47.840 --> 0:07:51.120 positive and the negative end of the spectrum. But in 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:53.800 terms of power, I mean, he's a guy that just 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:56.679 everywhere you look. I mean, his rates are even better 0:07:56.960 --> 0:07:59.400 than Jordan Walker's. I think he's higher than Jordan Walker 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:02.120 in uh. I think they're both basically the same here 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:03.840 in average TV, but he's a little bit higher in 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:05.880 terms of barrel and hard. 0:08:05.680 --> 0:08:08.240 Hit and just not doesn't chase. 0:08:08.360 --> 0:08:10.280 I think that that's the that's the key with Murakami 0:08:11.000 --> 0:08:13.480 that I kind of mentioned with others too, Like these 0:08:13.560 --> 0:08:16.560 kind of the big quality of contact guys that have 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:20.240 questionable contact rates, if they don't chase a lot, I 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:24.680 feel that's a better kind of recipe for them, at 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:29.560 least maintaining an average that isn't completely like Joey Gallo 0:08:30.080 --> 0:08:33.880 Chris Davis levels of terrible right like two thirty average 0:08:34.000 --> 0:08:37.920 from Murakami. I mean, I feel like six seven years 0:08:37.920 --> 0:08:41.439 ago we would have been, you know, looking at that average, uh, 0:08:41.559 --> 0:08:43.800 not as favorably, and I don't think we're looking at 0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:46.320 favorably now, But two thirty isn't as bad as it 0:08:46.400 --> 0:08:48.600 used to be. It's kind of like how batting averages 0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:50.600 have kind of come down a little bit, and you know, 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:53.040 ob you know, more walks and OBP kind of on 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:55.319 that focus too. So if he can just keep it 0:08:55.400 --> 0:08:58.560 right where he is two thirty and doesn't drop down 0:08:58.600 --> 0:09:00.559 to you know, like two hundred or or even have 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:03.040 them forbid lower than that, I think you can still 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:07.120 be okay with that average. You can definitely build your 0:09:07.160 --> 0:09:10.160 teams around that. I mean, especially if you have confidence 0:09:10.320 --> 0:09:12.640 in your drafting abilities, you can absolutely work around a 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:15.000 two thirty average, especially when that two thirty average is 0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:17.880 giving you, yeah, thirty five forty home runs. I mean, 0:09:17.880 --> 0:09:20.800 he's on pace for I think, like, damn your fifty 0:09:20.800 --> 0:09:23.160 home runs this season, and I mean I think I 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:25.320 think it's legit. I mean, you look at the elite 0:09:25.760 --> 0:09:29.079 quality of contact, The bat speed is there, the angles 0:09:29.080 --> 0:09:31.280 are there. So yeah, and especially if you play in 0:09:31.280 --> 0:09:34.400 an OBP format, he absolutely he's a he's a top 0:09:34.480 --> 0:09:36.520 probably thirty to forty. 0:09:36.200 --> 0:09:38.880 Guy you know later this year and next year as well. 0:09:38.920 --> 0:09:41.280 But even in an average league, if he keeps that 0:09:41.320 --> 0:09:43.440 two thirty, I think you're gonna see Murk Commedy kind 0:09:43.440 --> 0:09:45.480 of settle in as yeah, maybe even the next shore Ber. 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:49.920 I that'sh lofty praise, no doubt about that. But the profile, 0:09:50.360 --> 0:09:52.720 you know, you can see it. There's some similarities for sure. 0:09:53.720 --> 0:09:55.800 Yeah, with Murk Commy, the thing is he just knows 0:09:55.880 --> 0:09:58.240 what pitches he wants to swing at. He only has 0:09:58.280 --> 0:10:01.360 a forty one percent swing rate, which is very, very low, 0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:04.240 but he doesn't chase. He seems when he swings damn 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:06.160 near every time he's hitting the ball out of the yard. 0:10:06.160 --> 0:10:08.240 And it's just really unfortunate that he did have to 0:10:08.240 --> 0:10:11.160 miss time earlier and got hurt. I wonder what a 0:10:11.200 --> 0:10:13.040 full season's worth of stats would have looked like. There 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:14.760 probably would have been a little bit of a regression 0:10:14.800 --> 0:10:17.640 period for him, but still, if we were looking at 0:10:17.679 --> 0:10:19.440 one hundred and forty games, this might have been a 0:10:19.480 --> 0:10:22.280 forty five fifty home run guy. And I wonder where 0:10:22.280 --> 0:10:25.079 people will draft him next year as a first basement. 0:10:25.080 --> 0:10:27.560 First base is gonna be pretty deep, but Murakami is 0:10:27.559 --> 0:10:29.840 a pretty interesting name, for sure. I wanted to at 0:10:29.960 --> 0:10:32.200 least ask about Dominic Canzone as well, because he's a 0:10:32.200 --> 0:10:34.120 guy that doesn't seem to get a ton of love 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:37.719 in the fantasy world. If you look at roster percentages. 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:40.480 If you deeper NFBC type of leagues, he's rostered. But 0:10:40.480 --> 0:10:43.480 the average ten twelve team players don't seem that interested 0:10:43.520 --> 0:10:45.360 in Canzone. And you look at last year eighty two 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:48.040 games of a one to forty one WRC plus he 0:10:48.120 --> 0:10:51.280 hit three hundred. Well, this year so one thirty seven 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:54.040 WRC plus he's hitting two fifty seven. He's got a 0:10:54.040 --> 0:10:56.520 good on bass where he's got the fifteen homers. He 0:10:56.600 --> 0:10:59.800 hits the ball incredibly hard, fourteen percent barrel, ninety two 0:10:59.800 --> 0:11:03.280 and half average Egson velocity, and the bat speed has 0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:05.520 gone up from seventy three point one to seventy four 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:08.320 point eight this year. I'm a huge Canzone fan. Is 0:11:08.320 --> 0:11:10.960 this a guy that deserves his flowers from a fantasy 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:13.080 point of view more than he gets eric? Because one 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:17.000 forty WRC plus and back to back seasons very rare 0:11:17.160 --> 0:11:18.520 for any player to accomplish that. 0:11:19.320 --> 0:11:22.120 Oh yeah, absolutely, And I think just in general he 0:11:22.160 --> 0:11:25.240 deserves more flowers, right, But I think I think the 0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:28.360 little bit of the skepticism and probably the reason why. Look, 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:31.360 you've got like a Yahoo roster rate where I'm not 0:11:31.360 --> 0:11:32.920 sure where it's at now, but it's probably not like 0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:35.280 super high, maybe like what fifty years percent if I 0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:36.040 had the guests. 0:11:35.840 --> 0:11:37.760 Right now, but he's because they aren't. 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:42.079 For whatever reason, Seattle's is not playing him much against lefties, 0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:44.960 and in his very limited time this year against lefties, 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:47.120 he hasn't been in bad. It's two fifty four to 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:51.160 forty seven for sixty four slash line, two bombs, nine walks, 0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:53.040 nine k's, and thirty eight point appearances. 0:11:53.080 --> 0:11:55.520 I mean that's extremely small sample size. 0:11:55.280 --> 0:11:59.720 Absolutely, but you know he hasn't been like terrible against lefties, 0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:01.720 but you know he has thirty eight play appearances against 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:03.840 them and then two hundred and thirty eight against righties. 0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:05.880 So I feel like that's probably a little bit of 0:12:05.920 --> 0:12:09.199 the hold up for some fantasy managers. But yeah, I've 0:12:09.240 --> 0:12:12.080 been a kN Zone fan for a bit now. He 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:15.120 was kind of like that borderline top one hundred prospect 0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:17.360 back in the day that this at some point like 0:12:17.360 --> 0:12:18.800 all right, this is probably not gonna work out, and 0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:20.959 maybe think he'd be out of the league by now. 0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:23.599 But one of those late twenties bloomers. We saw it 0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:25.840 a little bit last year and in the second half 0:12:25.840 --> 0:12:27.719 when he hit three hundred but eleven bombs in the 0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:29.959 second half of the season and then that kind of 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:32.240 got a little bit of the intrigue going again for 0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:34.560 him this year, and he's just built on it, you know, 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:37.959 the five h two slog, fifteen bombs, I mean full 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:40.160 season pace. He's on pace for probably like thirty five 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:43.200 home runs. Obviously he won't get there, but yeah, I 0:12:43.200 --> 0:12:45.880 mean he's been really, really, you know, exciting in terms 0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:48.960 of the quality of contact bat speed. You know, contact 0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:51.720 rates aren't great, but they're not terrible. They're they're higher 0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:55.080 than than the umbercamis for instance, but yeah, there's not 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:58.319 any like glaring red flag in the profile. There's some 0:12:58.400 --> 0:13:01.360 below average patric Shore, and this is guy that's always 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:04.120 hit the ball hardly. Last year as well, he was hot, 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:06.240 kind of high up there, and all the quality of 0:13:06.280 --> 0:13:09.600 contact leaderboards as well. So I'm just hoping Seattle can 0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:11.880 maybe give him, you know, throw him a few more 0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:14.720 you know, starts against lefties and moving forward, we'll see. 0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:18.080 But yeah, definitely a very intriguing name here with can Zone. 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:21.560 And another thing about him too is that most people 0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:24.560 struggle a little bit at T Mobile Safego Field. I 0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:26.319 always mix up the name. I think it's T Mobile now, 0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:27.199 not Safego anymore. 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:27.920 I still call it. 0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:30.000 I still call a lot of the parks like what 0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:31.839 they were like twenty years ago. It's like if I 0:13:31.880 --> 0:13:33.960 can't remember, like, oh yeah it's Safego or this and that, 0:13:34.040 --> 0:13:36.079 I'm like, they just changed so much nowadays. 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:37.360 This is a card to keep track. 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:39.640 Whatever they were when I was a kid. That's pretty 0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:42.480 much what they're going to remain to be. Yep, But 0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:45.640 Tan Zone, you know, considering it's a really pitcher friendly ballpark, 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:46.880 I think a lot of people will be surprised to 0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:48.960 see that he has a nine thirty eight ops at home, 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:51.880 the one seventy three WRC plus and on the road 0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:55.559 it's not bad, a seven twenty seven ops ninety seven 0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:58.199 WRC plus, But just to excel in a pitcher friendly 0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:00.640 park the way he has. He's a guy i'd really 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:03.160 love to see get five hundred and fifty played appearances 0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:04.520 and just see what he can do. This is not 0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:06.720 gonna be the year where that happens. Hope that we 0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:09.120 will over the next couple of seasons. We are going 0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:11.080 to keep it going. In a second and talk about 0:14:11.120 --> 0:14:13.800 the heart hit percentage leader board. First, I want to 0:14:13.800 --> 0:14:16.840 remind you guys about my Playbook. You'll instantly identify the 0:14:16.840 --> 0:14:19.760 best pickups available in your league, win every trade with 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:22.240 our trade analyzer, and see the most optimal lineup every 0:14:22.320 --> 0:14:25.240 day based on our projections and your specific scoring settings. 0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:29.120 Sink your leagues at fantasypros dot com slash MLB my Playbook, 0:14:29.200 --> 0:14:31.880 or download the Fantasy Pros at for personalized expert advice. 0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:34.280 You can also get a little peak behind the curtain. 0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:37.600 Unlock every premium Fantasy Pros tool for three full days 0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:41.960 at fantasypros dot com slash free. Now there are going 0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:44.720 to be quite a bit of overlap on these leaderboards, 0:14:44.720 --> 0:14:47.680 but let's move into the heart hit percentage department. At 0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:50.120 the top again, James Wood fifty nine point seven, just 0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:52.960 having an incredible year. But number two is O'Neil Cruz 0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:55.560 at fifty nine point two, and I think, considering his 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:59.080 injury in the misstime, haven't really discussed him a lot 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:01.360 on the channel outside of the early portion of the year. 0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:04.640 But sixty four games he has fourteen homers twenty one steals. 0:15:04.920 --> 0:15:07.520 Hitting two sixty four is maybe the craziest thing after 0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:10.560 he hit two hundred last year. I wonder what the 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:14.360 future evaluation looks like for O'Neil Cruz, Eric because the 0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:17.360 underlying data has always been good. This year, it's a 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:20.560 sixteen percent barrel, fifty nine percent hard hit. Rady obviously 0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:22.680 hits the crap out of the ball. Bats beeat is great. 0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:26.160 Under the surface though, this is essentially the same guy 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:28.360 that we've seen over the last couple of years, and 0:15:28.720 --> 0:15:31.240 these things seem to click this season. But I wonder 0:15:31.840 --> 0:15:33.400 what you make of him for the rest of this 0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:36.120 year and what his draft price will look like next year. 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:37.800 This is a guy who's been a first second round 0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:40.680 pick and fantasy before and last year he was orderlining 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:42.520 outside of the top of one hundred. So what does 0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:44.960 your evaluation tell you of O'Neal Cruz at this point? 0:15:46.040 --> 0:15:48.640 Man, he might be like one of the you know, 0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:52.840 three or foremost polarizing hitters in baseball. And you mentioned 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:54.280 just what I was about to bring up in that, 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:56.320 you know, when you look under the hood, I mean, yeah, 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.080 like the slash line is a lot better this year. 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.840 You know, ever, just up sixty four points. OBP is 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:06.200 up fifty two points, slug is up ninety four points. 0:16:06.400 --> 0:16:08.960 So that's great and anybody that got him for that, 0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:10.840 you know, like that top one hundred or just a 0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:13.720 said price type that weird you just were talking about. 0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:15.960 You probably feel pretty good even with the miss time. 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:18.480 It's it's still a pretty good investment that you made. 0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:21.400 But at the same time, the metrics under the hood 0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:24.720 are basically more or less the same as last year. 0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:26.520 I mean, he's still I mean last year he was 0:16:26.560 --> 0:16:27.800 he was hitting the crap out of the ball. Last 0:16:27.840 --> 0:16:29.640 year he's been above a fifty percent hard hit rate 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:32.360 each of the last three years. The strikeout rate is 0:16:32.360 --> 0:16:35.360 actually higher than last year by two and a half percent. 0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:37.800 Thirty two percent last year, thirty four and a half 0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:40.600 percent this year. Contact rates are kind of the same 0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:43.160 as well. You're talking like mid seventies, you know, seventy five, 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:46.320 seventy six percent contact rate in zone. 0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:47.800 You know, overall, he's. 0:16:47.760 --> 0:16:49.760 Like the low to mid sixties, and it's actually the 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:52.000 with rates gone up to thirty seven point eight percent. 0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:55.560 So at the same time, like I feel like he's 0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:57.680 just you know, had you know this have a profile. 0:16:57.720 --> 0:17:00.280 Obviously he's kind of prone the you know, pretty notables 0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:02.280 and valleys. I just feel like those the peaks have 0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:05.040 this s been times better this year, and he either 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:07.920 looks like Aaron Judge or like Joey a late career 0:17:08.000 --> 0:17:10.280 Joey Gallo, and I feel there's like no in between 0:17:10.320 --> 0:17:12.440 with this guy. He's either you know, the best player 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:14.640 in Fantasy for three weeks, then he's almost a guy 0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:17.439 you want to bench for three weeks. So whatever the 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:20.639 price tige is and assuming that he can, you know, 0:17:20.680 --> 0:17:23.520 finish the season strong, I feel like it's gonna be 0:17:23.560 --> 0:17:26.520 another pretty high price tage. Maybe not first second round, 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:29.560 but I guess say like that third fourth round territory 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:31.679 where the ADP is like, you know, maybe in the 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:34.560 forties or something like that, And am I gonna want 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:35.160 to go after that? 0:17:35.840 --> 0:17:36.359 Probably not. 0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:38.840 He's super exciting and when he's on it's really fun 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:42.320