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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast that action all right. Here we

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Speaker 1: go the front of the test throwing out so spect

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Speaker 1: we're saying it's a cash touchdown. That's all we see.

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Speaker 1: Most gamble is when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 1: to win. That's incredible. Being bank small banks, I like

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Speaker 1: to make money. All right, this is the ultimate combining

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Speaker 1: and you want to and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am em and

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Speaker 2: Abrams and I am again joined by the one and

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Speaker 2: only Brandon Anderson to dive into some NFL award markets.

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Speaker 2: This is part two, so let's get into it. We

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Speaker 2: saved the better awards for now, so we are going

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Speaker 2: to get into those. Uh, Defensive Rookie of the Year

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Speaker 2: is the first one we will talk about. You know,

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Speaker 2: solid field last year, and I think a better field

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Speaker 2: at the top with real clear favorite. But I'll let

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Speaker 2: you kind of set the table here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so last year we didn't get a defender drafted

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Speaker 1: till number fifteen, so we kind of knew that we're

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Speaker 1: gonna get this sort of weaker field. It turned out

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Speaker 1: to be fine. Jared Verse looked awesome and really came through.

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Speaker 1: Will Anderson was a big hit for us. In the

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Speaker 1: pot a couple of years ago. Love miy Anderson's sas Gardner,

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Speaker 1: Micah Parsons names winning this award. Our names are getting

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Speaker 1: drafted near the top and names that are just kind

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Speaker 1: of stud defenders. So that's what we're looking for here.

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Speaker 1: As usual with defenders, I probably want a pass rusher.

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Speaker 1: Six of our last ten defensive Rookie of the Year

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Speaker 1: pass rushers six of the last ten at least seven sacks. Now,

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Speaker 1: we do have three corners in the mix, and it's

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Speaker 1: the only three corners of the century, but all since

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Speaker 1: twenty fifteen. That's tough because it's tough to predict who's

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Speaker 1: going to be a top corner and their stats are

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Speaker 1: not as easy to come by, but they're in the mix.

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Speaker 1: At least we got to acknowledge that. And the key

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Speaker 1: thing here both Rookie of Year Awards draft slot matters.

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Speaker 1: It's telling us who the good players are. That's why

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Speaker 1: they got drafted so high. And here's the numbers it.

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Speaker 1: Every winner this century for Defensive Rookie of the Year

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Speaker 1: is a top forty pick. Twenty two of the twenty

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Speaker 1: five of our first round picks, twenty of them our

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Speaker 1: top fifteen picks. That's eighty percent of the winners. Our

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Speaker 1: top fifteen picks didn't go well last year because we

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Speaker 1: had one top fifteen defender, but we should just be

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Speaker 1: assuming that. In fact, six winners since twenty ten or

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Speaker 1: just top five picks. So the higher you are in

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Speaker 1: the draft, the better you are, that's why you got drafted,

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Speaker 1: and also the more likely you're going to get playing

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Speaker 1: time right away. That's all all goes together. We actually,

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Speaker 1: like with many defender awards, we do want a favorite here.

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Speaker 1: Ten of our last thirteen winners started plus eleven hundred

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Speaker 1: or shorter, so usually a favorite is the better buye

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Speaker 1: here winning usually not in the money for Rookie of

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Speaker 1: the Year. But six of the last eight winners here

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Speaker 1: ten plus games that their team won, So I'm not

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Speaker 1: ready to say you have to win, but it does

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Speaker 1: look like we're starting to consider that a little bit.

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Speaker 1: And then kind of a wonky last criteria. The last

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Speaker 1: seven before versus winners of this win award, they joined

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Speaker 1: a team that was bottom six in points per game

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Speaker 1: allowed and they jumped into the top twelve points per

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Speaker 1: game allowed is you know, an old school stat, but

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Speaker 1: they're joining a bad defense. Duh, that's why they got

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Speaker 1: drafted so high and now they're elevating to a top defense.

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Speaker 1: It's probably a good reason they were paying attention to them.

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Speaker 1: So that's what we're looking for and ideally probably a

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Speaker 1: pass rusher.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and the top of the board is probably the

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Speaker 2: clearest favorite we have in the awards, to be honest

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Speaker 2: with you, Like, there is a large gap and it's

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Speaker 2: Abdul Carter, who is about two to one. Then you

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Speaker 2: get to some names like Jalen Walker, Michael Williams, Mike Greene,

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Speaker 2: Travis Hunter, Jehan Campbell, and then you start to get

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Speaker 2: down the list of a little bit more there. So

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Speaker 2: with Carter so high up and the Giants defense really

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Speaker 2: it's being talked about, is one of the one of

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Speaker 2: the better units with an offense with a huge question mark,

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Speaker 2: so he could get a large microscope under him and

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Speaker 2: it could do well. So what do you make at

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Speaker 2: the top of the board here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I hate the top of the board

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Speaker 1: because Admiral Carter is an absolute bulls eye for everything.

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Speaker 1: I just said, top three pick, best defender in the draft,

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Speaker 1: you know, depending what we decide. Travis Hunter is he

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Speaker 1: had twelve sacks last year, you're playing on the line

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Speaker 1: where you got Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns and Kevon Thibodel.

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Speaker 1: So you're gonna get single team probably a lot of

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Speaker 1: the season. So he just get abdul card is coming

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Speaker 1: after the quarterback. I don't love Shane Bowen you as

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Speaker 1: a coordinator. But even on this team and on the

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Speaker 1: old Titans teams were still getting like multiple eight sac guys.

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Speaker 1: That probably enough here and you're not gonna win. You're

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Speaker 1: not gonna get the ten wins on this team probably,

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Speaker 1: and they actually weren't quite bad enough points per game

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Speaker 1: to elevate. So we miss a couple of criteria there,

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Speaker 1: pretty close to a bulls eye. The problem is, I

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Speaker 1: can't do it at two to one, man. I cannot

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Speaker 1: invest in a guy that's yet to play an NFL

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Speaker 1: game as this like monster favorite here, no matter how

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Speaker 1: obvious it is. So I'm gonna nibble on two guys

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Speaker 1: just as kind of an anti Abdual Carter position, because

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Speaker 1: if one guy is so heavily favored, then there has

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Speaker 1: to be value at other positions if I'm right about

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Speaker 1: those odds being wrong. So two guys mikeel Williams, San Francisco,

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Speaker 1: forty nine ers, edge rusher, fourteen to one. He played

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Speaker 1: three years at Georgia, never top five sacks. We're after

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Speaker 1: roaring start. I don't love that, but he's gonna play

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Speaker 1: across Nick Bosa, so Bosa's gonna get the double teams.

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Speaker 1: Mikel's gonna come after the quarterback. We like him playing

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Speaker 1: for Robert Sala. We love Chris Cocorrect, the defensive line coach,

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Speaker 1: absolute star assistant coach in this league. I think Michael

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Speaker 1: Williams can rush outside or kind of flip inside, so

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Speaker 1: maybe he gets to stay on the field a little

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Speaker 1: bit more. They were bottom five points per game defense

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Speaker 1: last year. We know they should be just better as

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Speaker 1: a team this year. So at fourteen to one, Mikeel

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Speaker 1: Williams one of the top edge rushers in the draft.

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Speaker 1: I like him. I'm gonna break my own rule with

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Speaker 1: Carson Schwessinger, the linebacker from the Browns, not even a

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Speaker 1: first round pick, top pick of the second round, but

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Speaker 1: last year ninety tackles four sacks, two interceptions. Even as

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Speaker 1: a linebacker. He has a nine point nine RAS score,

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Speaker 1: so that puts him as a that's an athletics score

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Speaker 1: relative athleticism. He's a top fifty athleticism linebacker out of

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Speaker 1: thirty two hundred linebackers since nineteen eighty seven. So I'm

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Speaker 1: hoping he comes in. The Browns are missing a lot

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Speaker 1: of linebackers. Jeremiah Usukormo is gone. Last couple of years

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Speaker 1: ago when the Browns were awesome under Jim Schwartz, he

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Speaker 1: had over one hundred tackles, two picks, three and a

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Speaker 1: half sacks filling up the box score right. This used

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Speaker 1: to be a linebacker award. Now we switched and we

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Speaker 1: mostly do the edge rushers. You only have one linebacker

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Speaker 1: the last decade we had Luke Keikleelo. Before that, Schwressinger

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Speaker 1: played in the preseason game thirteen snaps and he had

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Speaker 1: six tackles in those snaps. So just can I just

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Speaker 1: get like a one hundred tackles and maybe he gets

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Speaker 1: over the line again joining at bottom five points per

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Speaker 1: game possible good defense. We're not gonna win ten games,

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Speaker 1: so that's not happening for the Browns. But it's just

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Speaker 1: kind of an anti Carter position, not super confidence. So'

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Speaker 1: not a full unit, probably quarter a half on each

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Speaker 1: but Mikel Williams fourteen to one, Carson Schwessinger thirty five

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Speaker 1: to one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I like this questioner pick for a few reasons

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Speaker 2: except I believe it was about double the price. A

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Speaker 2: lot of people like it. It's come down a little bit,

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Speaker 2: but still at thirty five to one, think it fine. Bet. Nonetheless,

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Speaker 2: I think it being twice the price of Mason Graham,

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Speaker 2: even though Mason Graham we talked about it, pass Rusher

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Speaker 2: Stack Compiler like might have an easier time with Miles

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Speaker 2: Garrett there. I like the questioner pick. Williams is fine.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we all you're big on to San Francisco,

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Speaker 2: so I kind of think that there is a chance

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Speaker 2: that if your defense is good enough and the team

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Speaker 2: is going in the right direction, he and sala is there,

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Speaker 2: it makes sense that he's the pick. I think the

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Speaker 2: two guys I'll bring to the table. So it looks

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Speaker 2: like Derek Harmon just gonna miss one game. But I

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Speaker 2: think thirty five forty to one on that Pittsburgh defense

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Speaker 2: is an interesting thought process. He should get the snaps,

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Speaker 2: he should get time as long as he's healthy. And

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Speaker 2: the other one that I feel is just kind of

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Speaker 2: way too long. Now the unit is terrible, but he's

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Speaker 2: going to get the snaps. Is Kenneth Grant. I made

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Speaker 2: money on him the draft. Now he's like eighty to

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Speaker 2: one on that Miami line. So do I like the unit?

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Speaker 2: Absolutely not. You know, Miami could be terrible, But if

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Speaker 2: you're looking at just the ability to get numbers, I

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Speaker 2: mean he's out there and the price is real long.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I have a hard time betting on defensive tackles

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Speaker 1: as award winners just because you just don't get a

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Speaker 1: lot of the stats. And I know too these days,

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Speaker 1: a tackle an edge like guys are kind of more

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Speaker 1: positionless on the line. So maybe I'm overthinking that one,

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Speaker 1: but I feel like we're gonna be either of those guys.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna need to be doing like p FF grades

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Speaker 1: and advanced metrics kind of crew And look, Jared Verse

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Speaker 1: arguably one that way. Last year he actually didn't hit

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Speaker 1: the seven sacks number, only had four and a half,

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Speaker 1: but he was an awesome He was awesome at getting

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Speaker 1: the quarterback and getting pressure rate like top ten in

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Speaker 1: the league. So I think we're moving that way where

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Speaker 1: just a studed defender, even without the stats, could get

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Speaker 1: the award. I think it's open if it's not Abdul Carter.

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Speaker 1: So don't bet on the plus two hundred guy is

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Speaker 1: just not the move here. If you like a long

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Speaker 1: shot Evans or Mine or whoever you've got in your mind,

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Speaker 1: I think it's a good way to try to nibble

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Speaker 1: this award.

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Speaker 2: The other thing is Dexter Lawrence Burns Tibodeaux, like there's

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Speaker 2: a chance he just doesn't get the numbers and looks great,

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Speaker 2: and you get to a guy who is kind of

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Speaker 2: more alone and is able to compile some stats. Especially

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Speaker 2: at two to one for Abdul Carter. All right, offensive

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Speaker 2: Rookie of the Year time. So Plaud's nice job. You

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Speaker 2: nailed Jayden Daniels last year at six to one, obviously

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Speaker 2: real clear pick, took the league by stor Now before

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Speaker 2: that you had CJ. Stroud, Garrett Wilson, Jamar Chase, Justin Herbert.

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Speaker 2: So with that being said, you have kind of a

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Speaker 2: mix of odds as well, some quarterbacks near the top

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Speaker 2: and some longer position players. So what are you kind

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Speaker 2: of taken from our past?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is one where actually favorites don't usually

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Speaker 1: win the award. Jane Daniels was kind of an exception.

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Speaker 1: He wasn't the favorite. Kaitha Williams was the favorite, but

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Speaker 1: Jade was still pretty short at six to one. In

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Speaker 1: the last decade, only three winners that started eight to

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Speaker 1: one or shorter heading into the season. So the guys

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Speaker 1: we think are going to win, not necessarily at but

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Speaker 1: not necessarily so far down the list. We do like

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks here, I know, it's a real shock. We love

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks when they're available. So for the last six winners,

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks eight out of fifteen, eleven out of twenty consistently

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Speaker 1: like half a little more than half here Over that

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Speaker 1: last two decades, four receivers, five running backs, So it

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Speaker 1: used to be a mega running back award or sixty

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Speaker 1: one percent running backs. We know about rookie running backs.

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Speaker 1: You and fantasy leagues love our rookie running backs. Only

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Speaker 1: four of the last seventeen winners are running back, so

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Speaker 1: maybe not as much running back anymore. Again, draft slot matters.

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Speaker 1: Seventeen out of the last twenty winners of offensive rookie

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Speaker 1: of the Year are right there in the first round.

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Speaker 1: Sixteen out of the twenty eighty percent again, Top twelve picks,

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Speaker 1: Top twelve, and we're drafting defensive guys most years in

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Speaker 1: there too, so that is really narrowing the field down

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Speaker 1: to like five six guys. In fact, nine of the

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Speaker 1: last twenty or top three picks, that's half half of

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Speaker 1: our offensive rookies the year are just top three picks.

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Speaker 1: So last seven winners all top ten picks. If you

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Speaker 1: do leave round one you want a running back, only

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Speaker 1: three guys are only two guys in the last three decades,

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Speaker 1: Dak Prescott and Anklin Boulder are the only two that

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Speaker 1: won from outside the first round as a non running back.

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Speaker 1: So I think that's what we're looking for. Winning help,

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Speaker 1: but not vital. Last fifteen winners over half finished under

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Speaker 1: five hundred on the season. But if your quarterback and

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Speaker 1: you do win, you're gonna win Rookie of the Year.

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Speaker 1: Just look at the last couple of years. Brock Bowers

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Speaker 1: last year, Puka Akua, the year before that historic rookie

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Speaker 1: numbers not Rookie of the year, Beca' We had a

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Speaker 1: quarterback that was a rookie and made the playoffs, so

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Speaker 1: they win. That's how this goes. Stats, of course, are

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Speaker 1: gonna matter running backs or receiver. Probably you need something

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Speaker 1: like thirteen hundred scrimmage yards, ten touchdowns. That's been the

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Speaker 1: average over the last fifteen years. Quarterback four thousand yards

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Speaker 1: thirty scores. So not huge numbers, but for perspective, you

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Speaker 1: probably need to be a top ten fantasy player at

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Speaker 1: your position. That's kind of what you need to be

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Speaker 1: to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you need to be a top draft pick. You mostly,

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Speaker 2: I would say, need to be a quarterback or running

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Speaker 2: back these days. But I think the most interesting thing

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Speaker 2: is the top of the board says gent A two fifty,

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Speaker 2: cam Ward three to one, Omaron Hampton nine to one,

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Speaker 2: and then you start to get out from there. So

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Speaker 2: I guess the question is is cam Ward too easy here?

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Speaker 1: I think he's too easy in that this is obviously

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Speaker 1: not a great quarterback draft. Last year we had six

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Speaker 1: in the top twelve quarterbacks, so we kind of knew

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Speaker 1: out of the gates it's got to be one of

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Speaker 1: these guys, right Well, this year, he's really the only

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Speaker 1: quarterback option. Titans quarterbacks last year combined for thirty three

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Speaker 1: hundred yards twenty two touchdowns, So not great, not the

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Speaker 1: numbers we're looking for here. I think these are we

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Speaker 1: ranked this as the worst weapons in the league. As

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Speaker 1: skill position players. You're not gonna go out of help

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Speaker 1: the lines. Improving, but improving means you were bad last year.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to get a quarterback wins

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Speaker 1: scenario here where you won ten games and made the

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Speaker 1: playoffs as possible, but I don't want to bet on

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Speaker 1: it with this team. I think cam Ward number one pick,

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Speaker 1: you got to be a top five candidate for sure,

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Speaker 1: but at plus three fifty I can't get there with him. Similarly, well,

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Speaker 1: similar with different Ashton genty is usually ranked just as

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Speaker 1: slightly ahead plus two fifty plus three fifty ft bucks.

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Speaker 1: He would be my favorite, but favorites don't win this award.

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Speaker 1: Remember only three of the last ten were priced anywhere

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Speaker 1: near this short Here's a top six pick last year,

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Speaker 1: twenty six hundred rushing yards, twenty nine scores, he catches passes.

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Speaker 1: Now he's in the chip Kelly system. Pete Carroll's had

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Speaker 1: some pretty good running backs play for him. Everyone's excited

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Speaker 1: about Clint Kubiak, Sorry not Clint Kubiak, but everyone's excited

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Speaker 1: about the Chip Kelly and the way that that blocking

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Speaker 1: should be. All of it I will say the line

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Speaker 1: is better pass blocking than run blocking. I thinks that's

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Speaker 1: one thing I don't like. There's a lot I do like.

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Speaker 1: He's the favorite. History tells us the favorite doesn't win

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Speaker 1: this award, and at such a short number at three

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Speaker 1: to one, I just I have to trust what my

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Speaker 1: data is telling me, and I can't bet the favorite,

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Speaker 1: even though I think he is the right favorite.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, if you're avoiding the guy on the

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Speaker 2: Raiders and the guy on the Titans, it feels like

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Speaker 2: someone else can win it. When you just think about

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Speaker 2: the teams and what they've done recently. They're good about

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Speaker 2: the player, even though with the hypes. So talk me

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Speaker 2: about another top twelve pick and some of your bets.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So the guy that I'm gonna go with here

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Speaker 1: is Travis Hunter twelve to one odds. Obviously everybody knows

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Speaker 1: who Travis Hunter is, so not gonna have any name recognition.

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Speaker 1: There ninety six catches last year, fifteen touchdowns. Is Brian

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Speaker 1: Thomas Junior in the way I think not, even though

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Speaker 1: I like Brian Thomas Junior. We're gonna get back to

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Speaker 1: him in a second. This team loses from last season

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty three catches from Avin Ingram and

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Speaker 1: Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis. There's plenty of balls to

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Speaker 1: go around in Jacksonville, even with BTJ catching plenty. We

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Speaker 1: love the upside here, Liam Cohen offense, love that Chris

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Speaker 1: Godwin that slot role, the power slot. I think that's

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Speaker 1: probably where Travis Hunter ends up. He was crushing last

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Speaker 1: year for the Buccaneers before he got hurt. Chris Godwin.

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Speaker 1: His seven game pace was one hundred and twenty catches,

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Speaker 1: fourteen hundred yards, twelve scores. If Travis Hunter does even

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Speaker 1: eighty percent of that, he's a runaway Rookie of the

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Speaker 1: Year winner in all likelihood, elite rout runner from reception,

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Speaker 1: perception and I think two with Hunter. We don't know

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Speaker 1: necessarily what sort of snaps we're getting either way, but

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Speaker 1: it looks like maybe eighty percent offense some defense. I

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Speaker 1: kind of feel like, rather than will split, will he

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Speaker 1: do too little in both markets and not win either,

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Speaker 1: I'm going the other way. I think he's an offensive

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Speaker 1: player who gets bonus extra credit because he also has

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Speaker 1: a reception and oh we returned to kick for a touchdown,

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Speaker 1: Like I think it's just gonna be a thing where

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Speaker 1: he's a receiver, but he also gets a little credit

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Speaker 1: for all the other stuff he's doing. And again we

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Speaker 1: know who he is. That's kind of this historic narrative

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Speaker 1: where I think if he's even mostly good, voters are

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Speaker 1: gonna want to be on the right side of history.

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Speaker 1: And you know, get out ahead and give him something.

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Speaker 1: Remember half of all Rookie of the Year offensive picks,

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Speaker 1: or just top three picks, which is what Travis Hunter was.

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Speaker 1: So he's my pick here, full unit at twelve to one,

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Speaker 1: and I would just rifle through some long shots for

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Speaker 1: you here. I told you long shots if you want

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Speaker 1: him outside the first round running backs. So three names,

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Speaker 1: r J. Harvey and Denver sixtieth pick of the draft,

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Speaker 1: my number two offensive line. We know the history with

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Speaker 1: Sean Payton and Alvin Kamara. He won Rookie of the

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Speaker 1: Year under Sean Payton, so I think RDURYA. Harvey could

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Speaker 1: possibly be the winner there. Caleb Johnson in Pittsburgh Nate

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Speaker 1: Tye called him, quote, Honey, I shrunk Derrick Henry. Well,

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Speaker 1: guess what he's now playing for. Derrick Henry's old coach,

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Speaker 1: Arthur Smith. In this zone heavy run scheme, fifteen hundred

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Speaker 1: yards and twenty scores last year. I think we're not

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Speaker 1: going to get a ton of passing here, but possibly

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Speaker 1: just an old school Steelers rushing attack, run, heavy type

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Speaker 1: guy getting the Naja Harris carries basically. And then last

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Speaker 1: one and name everyone's getting excited about these days. Round

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Speaker 1: seven pick Jacorey krossky Merritt thirty four to oh one.

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Speaker 1: Make sure to shop around. That number obviously is going

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Speaker 1: to get steamed up even more. They traded Bryan Robinson.

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Speaker 1: We got Bill out here as he's going by. Apparently

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Speaker 1: we love a running back with a running quarterback. Oh

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Speaker 1: I like that here. Probably gonna need again more of

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Speaker 1: the Caleb Johnson type. He's only had seven receptions in

357
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Speaker 1: his career, so we're gonna need touchdowns, rushing touchdowns and

358
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Speaker 1: just kind of getting a lot of goal line of work.

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Speaker 1: And you know, Round seven never hurts to have a

360
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Speaker 1: little narrative in your favor. So those three running backs

361
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Speaker 1: all in the like thirty to forty range quarter unit

362
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Speaker 1: on each one. I gotta say the name because I'm

363
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Speaker 1: not betting it now, but he's such a big name

364
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Speaker 1: in the media. If Shooter Sanders gets to play some football.

365
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Speaker 1: We gotta respect the fact that he's going to be

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Speaker 1: a story and he's going to have people are going

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Speaker 1: to want to reward him and the obvious narrative story.

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Speaker 1: I'm not betting him now because he's not starting, but

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Speaker 1: if he just kind of like falls off the radar

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Speaker 1: and turns into like two hundred to one or something,

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Speaker 1: it's not a crazy long shot. I just say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: everybody is gonna be watching throw the stats out, throw

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Speaker 1: the winning out. Just do we want to reward Shoudar Sanders.

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Speaker 1: I think that's possible. And then last one here, this

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Speaker 1: is your one dollar bet. This is the bomb long

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Speaker 1: shot bet of the podcast. Kansas City Chiefs offensive tackle

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Speaker 1: Josh Simmons five hundred to one Offensive Rookie of the Year.

378
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Speaker 1: We've never had an offensive lineman to win this award

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Speaker 1: or any of the other awards, except obviously Protector. Now,

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Speaker 1: why not a Chief. He's gonna be on TV ever

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Speaker 1: game that'll be talking about the new left tackle on

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs. We're gonna get the Kelsey's talking about him

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Speaker 1: on New Heights.

384
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Speaker 2: Taylor Swift shows up.

385
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Speaker 1: We're in a Josh Simmons jersey to one of the

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Speaker 1: games number thirty two first round pick could be honestly

387
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Speaker 1: one of the best players in the draft if he

388
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Speaker 1: stays healthy. My old guy from the nineties, Chris fumatu

389
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Speaker 1: Mau followed my last pick in every fantasy draft. That's

390
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Speaker 1: his uncle. Apparently, all the more reason to like Josh Simmons.

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Speaker 1: What's not the like five hundred to one, the most

392
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Speaker 1: ridiculous bet you can make. I'm putting a buck on it.

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Speaker 1: Let's see what happens.

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Speaker 2: I like looking I'll go up down here. I like

395
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Speaker 2: looking at Travis Hunter for Offensive Rookie of the Year

396
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Speaker 2: as his Heisman award, which is basically like he's not

397
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Speaker 2: going to play enough defense, and anything he does on

398
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,479
Speaker 2: defense will make his offensive look better in terms of

399
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Speaker 2: just a resume. Interesting way of looking at it. I

400
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Speaker 2: like Harvey and Caleb. Those are my two. I'm with

401
00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:19,640
Speaker 2: you forty to one and like thirty something to one.

402
00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 2: I think they have the best upside of that group

403
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Speaker 2: that you mentioned. I really like the Simmons pick. The

404
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 2: only question is is he up for protector as well?

405
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Speaker 2: Because if I like Creed Humphrey might as well put

406
00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:32,359
Speaker 2: a buck or two on him. If he has odds

407
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Speaker 2: up I didn't even look, but I like the Simmons

408
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,359
Speaker 2: thought the only other two would be Dart at twenty

409
00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:39,760
Speaker 2: five to one. I think I'm with you with Shador

410
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Speaker 2: in terms of waiting, but I would look at Dart,

411
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 2: might as well wait a few weeks see if it dips,

412
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Speaker 2: because I think him getting into that slot and throwing

413
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Speaker 2: some touchdowns and looking good with neighbors could get some numbers.

414
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Speaker 2: And then Ali Gordon at one hundred and fifty to one,

415
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,399
Speaker 2: I don't know. Definitely a dream, but another shot in

416
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Speaker 2: the dark in terms of someone outside that could just

417
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,679
Speaker 2: get some look because of injuries. Any thoughts before we

418
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:02,080
Speaker 2: move on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I can't hate the Dart pick. We

420
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Speaker 1: like quarterbacks for this award. I will say, you gotta

421
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Speaker 1: hope that he plays. I honestly think almost by the

422
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Speaker 1: end of September, because historically you've got to play enough

423
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Speaker 1: games just to get a chance at this award. So

424
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Speaker 1: if you maybe get an injury crack or something like

425
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Speaker 1: that and get him on the field early, I do

426
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Speaker 1: think Sugar could break that code because of who he is.

427
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Speaker 1: I don't think Jackson Dark can, but New York Media,

428
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Speaker 1: so I don't mind that there.

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Speaker 2: No surprises, folks. NFL season kicks off in just a

430
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,879
Speaker 2: matter of days. That's why we're doing this awards pod.

431
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,880
Speaker 2: So get the most out of your award winning Action

432
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:41,680
Speaker 2: Network app. You'll want an Action Pro subscription because only

433
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 2: Pro subscribers get real time pick alerts from experts like

434
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 2: Brandon Anderson, myself, our entire Action Network team. Plus you

435
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:53,199
Speaker 2: can access our Pro projections powered by Sean Kerner and

436
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 2: a ton of other benefits. To celebrate football's return, we've

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443
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Speaker 2: Pro All Right Offensive Player of the Year. This for

444
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 2: a long time was a running back award eight straight

445
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:31,159
Speaker 2: at the turn of the century. Then we got seven

446
00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 2: qbs in ten years from twenty seven to twenty sixteen.

447
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 2: Now the last six have split three wide receivers three

448
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 2: running backs. With Saquon McCaffrey, the last two years, so

449
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 2: seems jumbled in my brain when I looked at it.

450
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:48,680
Speaker 2: But what do you make of the Offensive Player of

451
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 2: the Year.

452
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,360
Speaker 1: So it does seem like we have moved away from quarterbacks.

453
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 1: It seems like we've really clearly gone with MVP is

454
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:58,440
Speaker 1: the best quarterback, and we're never giving it to a

455
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 1: running back or receiver. We have the conversation every year,

456
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 1: so this award is for the running backs and receivers.

457
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 1: This is the runner up award in that way. So

458
00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 1: last four quarterbacks that won this award also won MVP anyway,

459
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 1: So it's not even necessarily like Drew Brees used to

460
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,919
Speaker 1: be this whereas like, oh, well Drew Brees has a

461
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,440
Speaker 1: bajillion stats but only won nine or ten games. Let's

462
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 1: give him Offensive Player of the Year. But we give

463
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 1: MVP to the winning guy. It's not even that anymore.

464
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 1: Most of the time, that's probably your Joe Burrow case

465
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 1: this year here. So I do think it's a running

466
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:34,160
Speaker 1: back receiver award. I still lean that this is shifting

467
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 1: toward receivers with the direction the game is going. But

468
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 1: two running backs the last two years, so hard to

469
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 1: argue with that. We hadn't had a receiver win it

470
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 1: since Jery Race in ninety three until we got these

471
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,400
Speaker 1: three guys. So I still think it goes that way.

472
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 1: And the hard part about this award is, above everything else,

473
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 1: you just need ridiculous stats. Here's the numbers that you

474
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 1: have to average over the last fifteen years to win

475
00:23:57,320 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 1: this award. Quarterbacks one hundred passing yards and forty five touchdowns.

476
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 1: That does include a rushing but those are ridiculous numbers.

477
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:11,639
Speaker 1: Running Backs eighteen hundred rushing yards and fourteen scorers twenty

478
00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 1: two hundred scrimmage yards. Every winner has been over two

479
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 1: thousand scrimmage yards. And then receiver the average stats here

480
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 1: one hundred and forty catches, eighteen hundred yards and eleven scores.

481
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 1: These are I'm a top three player in my fantasy team.

482
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 1: I'm winning the league for you sort of numbers, which

483
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 1: means we don't know who's gonna put these numbers up.

484
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 1: It's impossible predicting. If we could do that, we'd be

485
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,880
Speaker 1: winning lots of other stuff too. There is one caveat here.

486
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 1: You wouldn't think so, but you do have to win

487
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:47,480
Speaker 1: football games too. All of our last fifteen years of

488
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,440
Speaker 1: winners have at least ten wins. The season that they

489
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:52,679
Speaker 1: did it, they're averaging twelve and a half, which is

490
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 1: really like thirteen considering the schedule expansion. That's surprising that

491
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 1: we need not just stats, but your stats go a matter.

492
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:00,880
Speaker 2: Man.

493
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 1: You can't just be putting up garbage time stats. So

494
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,120
Speaker 1: Jameis Winston get out of here. Let's get some real

495
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 1: stat production, but serious, serious numbers. This award for me

496
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 1: is one that we'll go through some of the names here.

497
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 1: I tend to go very light on this one before

498
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,919
Speaker 1: the season, and then like two three weeks in when

499
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 1: we start to kind of get a little nibble of like, hey,

500
00:25:21,960 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 1: you know those Dolphins, remember a couple of years ago.

501
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 1: The first couple weeks you're like some different about them.

502
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 1: What's happening with Tyreek out there? Now you invest and

503
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 1: you lost a little bit on the price, but you

504
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 1: start to see some of those outlier productions. I think

505
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 1: this is the one to maybe build your portfolio as

506
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 1: we go. But right now we'll talk about some kind

507
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 1: of the shorter odds guys and why don't like them,

508
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 1: and then the long graves guys. I'm gonna nibble a

509
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:45,919
Speaker 1: little bit on.

510
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, you start to go name by name when you

511
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 2: handicap this award, and there's just so many players obviously,

512
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,160
Speaker 2: so let's go at the top. Saquon Barkley the favorite.

513
00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 2: Then you've got Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Jamier Gibbs, and

514
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 2: Derrick Henry. They basically round out your fifteen to one

515
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 2: or shorter. So I'll kind of ask you of that group,

516
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,439
Speaker 2: and especially Saquon based off of what he did. So

517
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 2: why is he the favorite in the terms of like,

518
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 2: do we really expect it to happen again? And if

519
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 2: it happens again, is he getting the award? I think

520
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 2: it's all interesting questions.

521
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:22,120
Speaker 1: I think it's interesting, and I think like he kind

522
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 1: of has to be the favorite given him what he

523
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 1: just did, but he also absolutely cannot be the favorite.

524
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,919
Speaker 1: Let me explain what that mean. No running back or

525
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:32,159
Speaker 1: receiver has won two Offensive Player of the Years, not

526
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 1: just back to back, but just two at any point

527
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,439
Speaker 1: in their career since Marshall Faulk at the turn of

528
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 1: the century. So that's bad news for Saquon who just

529
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 1: won it. Bad news for Christian McCaffrey two years ago,

530
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson before that, All names that were talking about

531
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 1: in this area. The problem is if you need ridiculous

532
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 1: outlier production, how do you do that once and then

533
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:55,679
Speaker 1: impressed even more the next time. Saquon was on the

534
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 1: verge of breaking the rushing record last year, how is

535
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,200
Speaker 1: he gonna top that? Now? Are you gonna actually break

536
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 1: the rushing record this year and steal all the Jalen

537
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 1: Hurts toush push touchdowns on top of it? Don't forget

538
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 1: last year. Think of all those breakaway touchdowns. Those are

539
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 1: not repeatable. Those are not things that you want to

540
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,160
Speaker 1: bet on happening again. The seventy yard bust to the line,

541
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 1: gone down the sideline. I'm projecting Sakuan at fifteen hundred

542
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 1: rushing yards. That's a great season, and it's five hundred

543
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:25,640
Speaker 1: yards less than last year. Like, that's disappointing and you

544
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 1: can't be the winner there. He's like plus six hundred

545
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,399
Speaker 1: in most books. A very clear easy no bet for me,

546
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 1: Jamar Chase. You mentioned triple crown last year. He leaves

547
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 1: the league and catches and yards and touchdowns, so of

548
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,119
Speaker 1: course you won Player of the Year, right, No, not

549
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 1: even top two. He can't finish top two despite all

550
00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 1: those receiving stats. It is so hard to win this

551
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 1: award and get those sort of numbers. Jamar Chase typically

552
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 1: averages something more like eleven touchdowns. He had seventeen last year.

553
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 1: Mike Clay puts out a great regression article every year.

554
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 1: He's a top regression candidate. I mentioned Burrow earlier. I

555
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 1: think if you want to begle Burrow has like a

556
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:08,680
Speaker 1: fifty five hundred yards or fifty touchdowns. Maybe that old

557
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 1: Drew Brees type that kind of fits there. The running

558
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 1: backs we talked about Jean earlier. He loses those two

559
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 1: offensive linemen. Derrick Henry's thirty one. You know it's got

560
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:20,800
Speaker 1: to happen to subtype for him, and Lamar's on the team,

561
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 1: Jimmy or Gibbs, he loses his two offensive linemen and

562
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 1: Ben Johnson as well. I think you have to as

563
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 1: a book put these guys who were awesome last year

564
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 1: as the favorites because they're so good and we have

565
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 1: their numbers. But as it better, you should not bet

566
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 1: those guys because they just have their outlier year and

567
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 1: now they're going to come back towards the mean. Now

568
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 1: we need to pick the next outlier year. So of

569
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 1: all these guys were talking about if I had to

570
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 1: break my own rules and bet one of them. I

571
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 1: can't get past Christian McCaffrey twenty two to one, just

572
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 1: because I think that he really should be among the

573
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 1: favorites this award, not like that next tier down. McCaffrey

574
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 1: looks healthy. The niners are so good. He's only twenty nine.

575
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 1: It seems like he's old as he's played so long,

576
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 1: but he has three top seven finishes in this award.

577
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 1: We know if he plays, the numbers are gonna be there.

578
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,959
Speaker 1: The touchdowns are there, the receiving yards are there. They

579
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 1: don't have great wide receivers early. The schedule is soft.

580
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 1: His last four healthy seasons, McCaffrey every year has at

581
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 1: least eighteen hundred and eighty scrimmage yards. We need two thousand.

582
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 1: You're right there, man. If we get double digit touchdowns

583
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 1: all four of those years, that's every year except his

584
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:38,760
Speaker 1: rookie season as injured season. So I will play McCaffrey

585
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 1: even though he breaks like all my rules. He's a

586
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 1: repeat winner. He's a two little bit too short here.

587
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 1: I think he should be like eight to one or

588
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 1: ten to one. He's twenty two to one. So it's

589
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 1: still value because I think he should be one of

590
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 1: the three or four favorites. It's not like the eighth

591
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 1: or tenth favorite here.

592
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, based on those odds, it's hard to resist. So

593
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 2: is McCaffrey your own that's number one. The question is

594
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 2: is there's a slew of wide receivers and based off

595
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 2: of Jamar Chase having a triple crown and finishing third

596
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 2: in odds, it's hard to imagine what what wide receiver

597
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 2: would have to do. Or I guess it's hoping that

598
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 2: a running back doesn't put up what Saquon did to

599
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 2: get the wide receiver higher on the list. But with

600
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 2: Puka and Nico and Lamb and Amanraal, like, how do

601
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 2: you kind of go through those names and who stands out?

602
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, so those guys are all around like twenty to one,

603
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 1: ish Jefferson just barely ahead of them, like sixteen to one.

604
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 1: I really want to bet Nico Collins here. He was

605
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 1: absolutely cruising the start of last season. The first four

606
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 1: games he paced to over two thousand yards. There's no digs,

607
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 1: no Tank Dell there. We talked about Nick Cayley, the

608
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 1: new coordinator. We don't know, maybe untapped upside. There not

609
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 1: a big touchdowns guy. I love Nico. I wanted my

610
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 1: draft and fantasy at twenty to one. In this mix,

611
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 1: I don't see a lot of value. I think it's

612
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: a bad bet, but I think it'd be a best bet. Instead,

613
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 1: I'm gonna sprinkle a quarter unit on three guys that

614
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 1: I think should be in this group but are not.

615
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:03,959
Speaker 1: These are all guys, All three of them are at

616
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 1: forty to one, not twenty to one. So I'm getting

617
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 1: double the value on a guy that I think should

618
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 1: be in the mix. Year first one aj Brown back

619
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 1: to back Eagle winners. How about that? What if the

620
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 1: Eagles have to pass a little bit more this season

621
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 1: because they're not just milking the clock the entire second half.

622
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 1: They were number thirty one in pass rate in the

623
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 1: second half. They're about average in the first half. They're

624
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 1: just running the clock out on teams. Ajer Brown was

625
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 1: on pace for one hundred and twenty seven catches last year.

626
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 1: In the year before he had that crazy seven game

627
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 1: stretch right at least hundred twenty yards. Every game that

628
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 1: stretch pace for one hundred and forty catches twenty three

629
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 1: hundred yards. I think Ajer Brown has a legit chance

630
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 1: at two thousand yards this year, which somehow still no

631
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 1: receiver has ever done before. He's so efficient with his touches,

632
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 1: great yards per catch. Aj Brown forty to one, next

633
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 1: forty to one. Guy Brian Thomas last seven games as

634
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 1: a rookie last year's pace was one hundred and twenty catches,

635
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 1: sixteen hundred yards and twelve scores. We talked about Liam Cohen,

636
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 1: Travis Hunter. Probably not gonna hit both Jaguars here. Otherwise, man,

637
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 1: they must be good. But could he be this year's

638
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 1: Jamar Chase, bad defense, no running attack. Could he just

639
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 1: be the guy that's getting fed? Maybe Hunter actually helps

640
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 1: because he let Thomas get a little bit better single

641
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 1: coverage at times. And then the last one I debated him,

642
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 1: I given this one. Am I not? I just would

643
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 1: hate myself if I didn't bet him at this price

644
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill forty to one. I think it's probably over.

645
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 1: If I'm being honest with myself, He's thirty one. The

646
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 1: injury history is there, The vibes are just what's the

647
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 1: opposite of immaculate. The vibes are maculate in Miami. It's terrible.

648
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 1: But before last year he was Top four Offensive Player

649
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 1: of the Year two seasons in a row. He's been

650
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 1: my bet, I think three years in a row for

651
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 1: this award. It's forty to one. It's probably a dead

652
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 1: bet by week two. But Tyree can just go out

653
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 1: and have like two hundred yards week one and I'll

654
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 1: be so mad if I didn't take this number. So

655
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: those are my guys, AJ Brown, Brian Thomas, Tyreek Hill

656
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 1: forty to one quarter unit each and a quarter unit

657
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 1: on McCaffrey twenty two to one, So just one unit

658
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 1: I'm splitting out between the four guys that I think

659
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 1: you have monsters seasons, and if you don't bet those names,

660
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 1: get him in your fantasy draft. That's the guys I

661
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 1: won fantasy too.

662
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 2: I like those three names, especially at the odds. If

663
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 2: you're gonna bet McCaffrey, I feel like you have to

664
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 2: put a few bucks on the parlay with him and

665
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 2: Trent Williams as the Protector of the Year because I

666
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 2: feel like there's some good chemistry there and those are

667
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 2: some decent odds on both. I'll just bring up a

668
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 2: few guys on my list, Bucky Irving sixty to one. Understand,

669
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 2: there's no worfs, but heck of an upside people talk

670
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 2: ceiling of like running back one. It would have to

671
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 2: get there. A lot of points on that offense too.

672
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 2: Jackson spit the jigbud fifty to one, I feel like

673
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 2: is intriguing. Obviously it's Sam Darnold and you have to

674
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 2: worry about some things there. But Cooper cup could help

675
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 2: and he's a monster, so there's receiving yard potential. I

676
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 2: looked at people like Worthy at one hundred and fifty

677
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 2: to one, Mike Evans at one hundred and fifty to one.

678
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 2: Evans feels his especially long if you've got someone to

679
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 2: worry about it on the other side, even without Godwin,

680
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 2: and then Godwin comes back, maybe Evans goes crazy. But

681
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 2: those are the names on my list. I thought. I

682
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:13,400
Speaker 2: thought it was worthy that Simon like Chase Brown at

683
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:15,240
Speaker 2: one hundred to one. He said that on the Favorites,

684
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:19,319
Speaker 2: which is intriguing. But those are the names on my list.

685
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:20,719
Speaker 2: Any thoughts before we move forward.

686
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think of those names. I don't love the

687
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 1: receiver choices just again, the production we need is just

688
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 1: outrageous here, So sure you get to those numbers as

689
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 1: a long shot. I like the idea of both Bucky

690
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: Irving and Chase Brown. Here's why both teams offensive lines

691
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 1: I'm worried about. But weirdly, if your offensive line isn't good,

692
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 1: if Worfs is out, if the Bengals don't have any alignment,

693
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: sometimes you run more actually to help your offensive line.

694
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 1: It's easier to run block than pass block. And both

695
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 1: guys are good receivers. That helps toward the school yards thing.

696
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 1: Both guys are and offenses that should be pretty good

697
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 1: and maybe have not great defenses and need to pass

698
00:34:57,800 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 1: a lot and try to get a lot of points

699
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 1: as well well. So yeah, I think we've seen the

700
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 1: running backs pop off on this award. I think both

701
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:07,800
Speaker 1: those guys' profile as could I see them two thousand

702
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 1: scrimmage yards, yeah, that makes sense to me. Good pass catchers,

703
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 1: I could see them at long numbers. So I like

704
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 1: the idea of the long shot for both there.

705
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 2: I like Bucky all right, last, but not least, defensive

706
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 2: Player of the Year. This one has been one of

707
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 2: your favorite awards because I think it goes a little

708
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:27,240
Speaker 2: bit off the page in terms of some of the names,

709
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:30,400
Speaker 2: and especially last year, it really had a bit of

710
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 2: a wild card when certain won, especially because it's been

711
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:35,800
Speaker 2: at least what I looked at like a sack award

712
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 2: on more levels, like you were the best pass rusher,

713
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 2: the Miles Garrett's, the t J Watts, things of that nature.

714
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,800
Speaker 2: So what do you think about Certan winning it last year?

715
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,280
Speaker 2: And do you feel like that's a trend or a blip?

716
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:50,799
Speaker 1: So I was more upset about Patrick Curtan winning this

717
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 1: award last year than I was about Lamar Jackson and

718
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 1: me a MVP. If that answers the question, I feel

719
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 1: like I think looking back, Cirtan just has to be

720
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 1: seen as a pro significant outlier, not a complete outlier.

721
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 1: We saw Stefan Gilmour earlier this decade win the award

722
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 1: very similarly, where he's the lead cornerback, the assume the

723
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 1: best player on a really good number one in some

724
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 1: metrics defenses. But I think here's the outlier part. Last

725
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 1: year we said this is a pass rusher. What I

726
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 1: grew through, I think it's still is. A Hutchinson big

727
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 1: favorite to win the award out for the season, Micah

728
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 1: Parsons big favorite to win the award he gets injured,

729
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 1: missus a big chunk. Nick Bosa gets hurt. Miles Garrett

730
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 1: pretty good, but his team is terrible, so he gets penalized.

731
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 1: TG Watt's the favorite for a lot of the season.

732
00:36:34,719 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: He kind of falls off late. All the names that

733
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 1: are usually expecting to win this award are getting hurt.

734
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:43,320
Speaker 1: So sometimes just everything clears out and it felt like

735
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 1: a you, It's like, well, we gotta vote for someone right, Like,

736
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 1: look past Sertan, who are the other names I got votes?

737
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 1: Trey Hendrickson finish his second not a bad Bengals defense?

738
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 1: Why are we rewarding a Bengals defender because we didn't

739
00:36:56,560 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 1: have options? Zach Bond Top five. This dude was a

740
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 1: free agent. Anybody can have him off the Scroup people

741
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 1: a year ago, and now it's a linebacker Top five

742
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,240
Speaker 1: and Defensive Player of the Year. Your guy, Kirby Joseph

743
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 1: I remember we talked about him a bunch. He finishes

744
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 1: his top six in this award. These are not names

745
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:15,879
Speaker 1: that should be winning top six Defensive Player the Year.

746
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:18,720
Speaker 1: Let's be real, like this award year after year goes

747
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 1: to top pass rushers. Eight of the last ten winners

748
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 1: are still pass rushers, even with Sirtan and Gilmore in

749
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 1: there those eight dudes average sixteen sacks their winning season.

750
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 1: They all have at least eleven sacks. You just pick

751
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 1: the top defender here. Six of the last ten guys

752
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 1: that have won finished previously in the top six voting.

753
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 1: So basically, again similar to the offensive linement stuff, we're

754
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 1: not digging down the board respectfully for Zach Bond and

755
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 1: Kirby Joseph. We're picking the defenders that everyone agrees our

756
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 1: top five guys over the last decade. We want a

757
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:56,720
Speaker 1: guy typically in their like mid to late twenties, average

758
00:37:56,760 --> 00:38:00,800
Speaker 1: age twenty seven. Nobody aged thirty year more in the

759
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:02,839
Speaker 1: last decade. I think you kind of hit the cliff there,

760
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 1: and that matters with a couple of these guys six

761
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 1: out of ten for year four or five in your career,

762
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 1: and I think that part matters to nobody before year four.

763
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 1: You have to sort of build the credit a little bit.

764
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,880
Speaker 1: You got to get into people's minds as this elite defender.

765
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 1: Then you can win team award. We always have to

766
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 1: ask that with these average winner over the last decade.

767
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 1: Defender of the year tenth in points per game allowed,

768
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:33,279
Speaker 1: ninth in DVOA, So not bad, but not necessarily this

769
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:36,160
Speaker 1: elite defense kind of like Denver Award was last year.

770
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:38,720
Speaker 1: But it is a team award, and then you gotta

771
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 1: win games. You gotta win games. Sorry, Miles Garrett, that's

772
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 1: why you didn't get credit last year. Every one of

773
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 1: these guys the last decade has at least nine wins.

774
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:50,400
Speaker 1: They're averaging eleven wins. So we need someone on a

775
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 1: winning team nine to eleven wins or better. We want

776
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 1: fifteen sacks. We want ideally a year four or five

777
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 1: pass rusher, and that's what we want. And I'm not

778
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,279
Speaker 1: getting too hung up on the certain thing from last year.

779
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 2: I think you've probably nailed it on the head in

780
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 2: terms of some of the names and the way you

781
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 2: should be looking at the award. But let's talk about

782
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 2: the odds at the top and then we can kind

783
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 2: of go from there. So it's Micah about six seven

784
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 2: to one, with Aiden Hutchinson, T J. Watt, Miles Garrett,

785
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 2: Nick Bosa about eleven to one, Jared versus Max Crosby,

786
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 2: and Will Anderson kind of round out. You're about sixteen

787
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 2: to one or shorter at the end there. So I

788
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 2: think of those names are there, are you sticking with

789
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 2: the plan of a favorite, like, do you feel like

790
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 2: any of them are worth it? Just considering you know

791
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 2: the criteria of the award.

792
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, so longtime listeners.

793
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 2: No.

794
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 1: Typically on this award, I'm usually picking not just one

795
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 1: of the favorites, but often two, three, even four of

796
00:39:50,520 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 1: the favorites. And I'm just saying, Okay, forget everybody else,

797
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 1: just give me these guys against the field. That's what

798
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 1: I did last year. The field got me. It's gonna

799
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 1: happen sometimes. I'm kind of doing that this year. But

800
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:02,919
Speaker 1: it's just gonna be one guy. So let me rule

801
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:06,760
Speaker 1: some names out. TJA watch thirty one, Miles Garrett's thirty

802
00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:10,320
Speaker 1: Those guys historically may have aged out of this award

803
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:12,879
Speaker 1: by now. Garrett obviously not on a great team either,

804
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:17,840
Speaker 1: Will Anderson and Jared Verse. Your three year two history

805
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 1: says that's too early. It doesn't mean you can't win it.

806
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 1: Hutchinson was a year three a year ago, and he

807
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,920
Speaker 1: looked like he's gonna win. I'm going by my criteria.

808
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 1: My numbers say you're too old, you're too young. Max Crosby.

809
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:32,279
Speaker 1: The Raiders defense stinks they're not gonna be able to

810
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 1: get him enough production, enough sacks for him. I don't

811
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,759
Speaker 1: need him. I don't mind Nick Bosa. You get a

812
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 1: little discount on his price from last year, but he's

813
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:41,239
Speaker 1: basically had like ten sacks he's the last two years,

814
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 1: so I would not quit the production. I want Hutchinson.

815
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:46,480
Speaker 1: He's the other way. He's about half the price he

816
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 1: was a year ago. He is a sweet spot age

817
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 1: twenty five, year four, number one PFF edge grade rusher

818
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 1: seven and a half sacks in five games last year,

819
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 1: so it's like, okay, great, it's gonna break the record. Well,

820
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 1: how about what happened in those games? He played backup

821
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 1: tackles like three four games in a row, including one

822
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 1: game against the Bucks where he had four and a

823
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:08,600
Speaker 1: half of those seven and a half sacks. So let's

824
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 1: not maybe get too far out on our skis with

825
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 1: a Hutchinson. I think he's right to be in the mix,

826
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 1: But is he really the favorite? Is he the best

827
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 1: defender in the league. He's the best defender of the league,

828
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:20,279
Speaker 1: and also Ali McNeil. Some of the other guys on

829
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:22,360
Speaker 1: the line, they're injured. He's still injured a little bit

830
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 1: himself in coming back. I don't need to invest favorite

831
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 1: pricing on that sort of player, I'll invest in the

832
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 1: guy I have left, which is my best bet of

833
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 1: this entire podcast. It's Micah Parsons eight to one absolute

834
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:39,319
Speaker 1: bullseye for this award. Age twenty six, year five right

835
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:42,239
Speaker 1: where I want him to be Three healthy seasons out

836
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 1: of four top three defensive player of the Year, including

837
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 1: his rookie season last year. He's not healthy, he gets hurt,

838
00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 1: he comes back. In the last nine games he has

839
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,759
Speaker 1: eleven sacks. That's a twenty one sack pace. This is

840
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 1: a dude that is a stone cold lock to be

841
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 1: Defensive Player of the Year sometime in his career, maybe multiple.

842
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 1: He's got a great chance to break the sack record

843
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:06,440
Speaker 1: at some point, could be this season. Here are the

844
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:10,239
Speaker 1: names in history who have at least twelve sacks each

845
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 1: of their first four seasons. Michah Parsons, Reggie White end

846
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:18,799
Speaker 1: of list. That is the defender we're talking about here.

847
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 1: He leads the NFL in pressure and pass rush winner

848
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 1: rate since twenty twenty three. Despite that, he led the

849
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 1: league in double team rate last year. You shouldn't be

850
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 1: able to do that. And last thing, because I know

851
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 1: we have to address it. Michah Parsons is laying on

852
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 1: the bench in preseason watching nothing happening. He's on the

853
00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 1: hold in. I'm not worried about this is the Cowboys.

854
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 1: Jerry Jones is gonna pay the man eventually. Jerry just

855
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 1: wants some attention for a while. If anything, I it's

856
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 1: buying us a discount. He was six hundred last year.

857
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 1: He's eight hundred now. If anything, if he does miss

858
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:53,479
Speaker 1: a game or two, he might accidentally make the case

859
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:57,360
Speaker 1: for us. Last four years on the field, Micah Parsons

860
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 1: number one EPA per play defense when he's off the field,

861
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 1: which is a thousand plays, number thirty one. When he's

862
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 1: on the field, they're the best defense in football. When

863
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 1: he's off, they're the second worst defense that stats from

864
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:15,280
Speaker 1: Bill Barnwell Easy easy Play. I'm always starting at Micah Parsons,

865
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 1: and this year I'm not adding anyone else. Multi unit

866
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 1: bet Micah Parsons eight to one, my favorite bet on

867
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:23,320
Speaker 1: the podcast.

868
00:43:22,840 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 2: Today, Absolutely absurd. I think the two points I like

869
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:29,560
Speaker 2: the most would be that he's never won it and

870
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 2: he should at some point win the award. It is

871
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:34,960
Speaker 2: right to think that because in the end, his numbers

872
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 2: are absurd, and it should fall in his lap at

873
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:39,040
Speaker 2: some point the second one. If he does miss the

874
00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:42,240
Speaker 2: opener and they get smoked by Philly on the defensive side,

875
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 2: it does kind of help his case, you know, if

876
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:46,920
Speaker 2: he got it after the game that week, whatever it

877
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 2: turned out to be, because Jerry wanted to make more news.

878
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 2: So I completely get the bet. And the fact that

879
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 2: it's longer than it was kind of just gives you

880
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:57,399
Speaker 2: more value on the same player. So I agree. There

881
00:43:57,480 --> 00:43:59,799
Speaker 2: the only other names. I'll toss you one other. Yeah,

882
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:02,879
Speaker 2: And I believe I'm a little young for this.

883
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 1: I'm going off of memory of hearsay here, but older

884
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 1: football fans will remember EMMITTT. Smith hold out from I

885
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:11,959
Speaker 1: think like the early nineties. I believe he holds out

886
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:14,879
Speaker 1: and misses the first two games of the year as

887
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 1: everyone's mad, Jerry pay them in, get him in here,

888
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:19,839
Speaker 1: what are we doing? And they go, oh and too,

889
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:21,879
Speaker 1: I think to start the season if I'm getting it right,

890
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 1: And then he comes back, they pay him up and

891
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:26,239
Speaker 1: I think you want MVP that season. They rumble on

892
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:28,959
Speaker 1: after that because guess what we saw just how bad

893
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:31,920
Speaker 1: the Cowboys were without their guy. Then Jerry saw too

894
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 1: paid them up and so I think history repeats itself

895
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 1: here if we get that, and you know, could make

896
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 1: Micah look real good from the sideline.

897
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:42,359
Speaker 2: Even if we get that, I like the storyline effort there.

898
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:44,359
Speaker 2: That's good on your part. The two names i'll throw

899
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:48,919
Speaker 2: out there, Daniel Hunter still thirty in that range, Will

900
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:52,319
Speaker 2: Anderson at sixteen eighteen to one, I mean obviously gives

901
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:56,040
Speaker 2: him more single attention. Third Moo sacks last two seasons,

902
00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 2: so I mean in terms of numbers, he's going to

903
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:00,279
Speaker 2: get there. The other one I think is kind of

904
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 2: interesting in two years younger Josh heinz Allen, also super

905
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 2: sack getter. Jacksonville's defense gotta be a whole lot better

906
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 2: for him to be actually considered in that area, which

907
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 2: is why maybe Hunter over offers more value. Then. The

908
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 2: third name would be Greg Russo, but at twenty five,

909
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:19,359
Speaker 2: I think he's just getting there. But at eighty five

910
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 2: to one, someone on a good defense on a good

911
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,719
Speaker 2: team can get some sacks. Those are the players I

912
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:25,239
Speaker 2: was looking at.

913
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:28,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think those makes sense as the right long shots.

914
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 1: I think heinz Allen definitely is a guy that I've

915
00:45:30,239 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 1: looked at him as a long shot before he can

916
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 1: get those three sack games, and I can get you

917
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 1: in with in a hurry. This for me is the

918
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 1: one award, maybe the one bet on the board that

919
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 1: I don't bet long shots on. I'm always the long

920
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,279
Speaker 1: shot guy. Defensive Player of the Year is the one

921
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:45,839
Speaker 1: I want. One of the favorites. I just want mic

922
00:45:45,840 --> 00:45:46,480
Speaker 1: of this Year.

923
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:49,759
Speaker 2: Makes sense to me. All right, best bets time, So

924
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:52,879
Speaker 2: just go over what you need to. We've done all

925
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 2: the awards, We've gotten through the mall. When we get

926
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 2: to a twenty game schedule, I am sure they will

927
00:45:57,080 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 2: add more awards to this list, but for now, give

928
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:00,399
Speaker 2: us what you got.

929
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 1: Here's hoping give us more awards. We'll keep that.

930
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, here it's open.

931
00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:06,920
Speaker 1: My favorite bets. We just gave it out Micah Parsons

932
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 1: Defensive Player of the Year plus eight hundred and second

933
00:46:10,080 --> 00:46:12,640
Speaker 1: favorite Trent Williams. We led at the top the new

934
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:14,960
Speaker 1: Protector of the Year award eleven to one. Those are

935
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 1: my favorite realistic outcome ones and then my favorite long shots.

936
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:22,440
Speaker 1: And I debated just putting this one with my favorite

937
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:25,720
Speaker 1: two at the beginning. I love that Demiko Ryans sixty

938
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 1: five to one Coach of the Year bet. I think

939
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 1: this is a great way to invest in the Texans.

940
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:32,839
Speaker 1: I like Zach Robinson for Assistant Coach of the Year

941
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:37,040
Speaker 1: at sixty to one, and truly because the narrative is

942
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 1: just so juicy. Josh Simmons tackle Offensive Rookie of the

943
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:46,000
Speaker 1: Year five hundred one. Let's go, Taylor Swift Hive, go

944
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 1: get me an offensive rookie of the Year. It's in

945
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 1: my favorite long shots. That's it.

946
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 2: I love it. I'm also going to touch him for

947
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:55,200
Speaker 2: Protector of the Year because you know, why not, maybe

948
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 2: he gets both. Thank you for listening. That was part

949
00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:02,520
Speaker 2: two of our our NFL Awards episode. My thanks to

950
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:04,919
Speaker 2: Brandon for joining me so I mentioned off the top.

951
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:08,760
Speaker 2: We will have another episode diving specifically into the MVP market,

952
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:11,040
Speaker 2: so we will go over a lot of names, make

953
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 2: some cases. That'll be a lot of fun, So do

954
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 2: not miss that one, as well as much more NFL

955
00:47:16,000 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 2: betting content in the days and weeks and months during

956
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:21,880
Speaker 2: the season. To come check out Brandon's articles as it

957
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 2: does a deep dive into each of the awards market

958
00:47:24,200 --> 00:47:28,200
Speaker 2: this week at actionnetwork dot com. Do not forget to

959
00:47:28,320 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 2: download the award winning Action Network app if you haven't

960
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 2: yet used promo Code Pod twenty for twenty dollars off

961
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:39,000
Speaker 2: a year of Action Pro Best of luck on all

962
00:47:39,040 --> 00:47:41,439
Speaker 2: your bets. We will see you back here next time

963
00:47:41,560 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 2: on the Action Network podcast I'm Man Abrams. That's Brandon Anderson.

964
00:47:46,719 --> 00:48:01,640
Speaker 2: Enjoy your awards, everybody.

965
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:07,799
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

966
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

967
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:13,720
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler