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Speaker 1: Hoops Tonight, presented by Fandel here at the volume. Happy Sunday, everybody.
Speaker 1: I hope all of you are having a great weekend
Speaker 1: so far. An incredible first day of the second round
Speaker 1: of the playoffs, which we expected. There's so many good
Speaker 1: players and good teams left at this point that it's
Speaker 1: just bound to give us amazing basketball content, and yes
Speaker 1: it did. We are going to start today with the
Speaker 1: Warriors and the Grizzlies. After that we're going to do
Speaker 1: a deep dive into the Bucks and Celtics game. Lots
Speaker 1: and lots to get to before we get started. A
Speaker 1: couple of quick housekeeping notes. Make sure that you like
Speaker 1: this video and subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channel so
Speaker 1: you don't miss any more of our content. Make sure
Speaker 1: you check out our newsletter. A link to subscribe is
Speaker 1: in the description. It is a great way to keep
Speaker 1: up with all of our content. Also, make sure you
Speaker 1: check out the Colin Cowherd podcast. He's got a surprise
Speaker 1: winner for this year's NFL Draft. You're gonna want to
Speaker 1: hear that. And then, of course, this is the place
Speaker 1: to get all of your Draymond Green content. I've been
Speaker 1: saying on my Twitter feed that Draymond Green and his
Speaker 1: reactions inside of a playoff series, as someone who's as
Speaker 1: intimately involved as a player can be as some of
Speaker 1: the best content in sports. Right now, he will be
Speaker 1: reacting to Game one in the next twenty four hours.
Speaker 1: You won't want to miss that. And then, lastly, make
Speaker 1: sure you follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason lt.
Speaker 1: Every morning, I get up and I break down the
Speaker 1: films from the film from the games in the previous day,
Speaker 1: and I get into some of the weeds and some
Speaker 1: of the details that are impossible to get to in
Speaker 1: these instant reaction videos. So make sure you follow me
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Underscore Jason LT and subscribe to the
Speaker 1: podcast as well. All right, let's start with the Warriors.
Speaker 1: So I want to start with the before we actually
Speaker 1: get to the get the nuts and bolts of the basketball.
Speaker 1: I have two refereeing or officiating real lated things that
Speaker 1: I want to hit on, starting with this, the Draymond suspension,
Speaker 1: which was obviously, uh, the big story from this specific game.
Speaker 1: I at first couldn't tell what had happened, and the
Speaker 1: clips that were being circulated around that I had seen
Speaker 1: a close to million times worthy jersey pool and in general, like,
Speaker 1: I'm the kind of guy that when I am talking
Speaker 1: about officiating, particularly when it comes to ejections, I want
Speaker 1: to see absolute, like the unquestionable, you can't leave this
Speaker 1: guy in the game type of stuff. And so at first,
Speaker 1: when I was like, Okay, he's pulling his jersey down. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a little bit dangerous. You could argue he's actually
Speaker 1: trying to kind of gather Brandon Clark and and help
Speaker 1: him fall type of deal. Right, Like, to me, what
Speaker 1: didn't see him as dirty? So I was like amazed
Speaker 1: at the fact that they would ever even consider suspending
Speaker 1: him for something as trivial as that. But then I
Speaker 1: saw the other angles, and I saw the swing down
Speaker 1: hitting hitting Brandon Clark on the face, and I mean,
Speaker 1: we could really make it this simple. There's a very
Speaker 1: specific reason why players are discouraged from hitting each other
Speaker 1: in the face in the game, and it's too it's
Speaker 1: because they don't want to get ejected. That we we
Speaker 1: have to have a line somewhere, and in this case,
Speaker 1: the line is like, if you load up and you
Speaker 1: hit a guy in the face and it's not a
Speaker 1: real basketball play, then yeah, you gotta eject the guy.
Speaker 1: And I love Draymond Green, love everything he brings to
Speaker 1: the Warriors, but to me, that was a pretty cut
Speaker 1: and dry ejection. And obviously Draymond Green is gonna have
Speaker 1: some fun with the crowd in that type of moment.
Speaker 1: You know, what was interesting is that ejection changed the
Speaker 1: entire complexion of the game in a bunch of ways
Speaker 1: that are gonna be difficult to translate forward in the
Speaker 1: series because Draymond's gonna play a lot. But there was
Speaker 1: a kind of a brand of basketball the Golden State
Speaker 1: played after Draymond went out that was very unique, and
Speaker 1: we will get to that in a minute. One last
Speaker 1: thing with the refs, that block charge call on Steph Curry.
Speaker 1: So Steph drives into the lane and he's got four
Speaker 1: fouls and Dylan Brooks has five fouls. And Dylan Brooks
Speaker 1: kind of like stops in the lane and slides a
Speaker 1: little bit over to the left, and you can see
Speaker 1: Steph try to go around Dylan Brooks's left shoulder, but
Speaker 1: at the end he kind of slides over. Now, what
Speaker 1: the rest were saying was his left foot was planted,
Speaker 1: but if you looked at it, his feet were planted
Speaker 1: in a very spread stance and it's almost giving him
Speaker 1: too much leeway of position for him to be there.
Speaker 1: And I was blown away that, after reviewing that play
Speaker 1: and seeing all the angles, that they opted to give
Speaker 1: step that fifth foul and he ended up actually fouling
Speaker 1: out at the end of the game, which is which
Speaker 1: is a predicament in its own in its own sense.
Speaker 1: But my issue with that specific call is I don't
Speaker 1: think it's good for the game of basketball to have
Speaker 1: bodies and and people just falling down in the lane.
Speaker 1: Like there's a reason why when you guys go play
Speaker 1: pick up with your friends, if you you don't go
Speaker 1: take a charge because it's dangerous. It's dangerous to have
Speaker 1: people driving into the lane and falling down. In fact,
Speaker 1: what do you guys do and pick up when someone
Speaker 1: drives into you. You kind of just hold your ground.
Speaker 1: You're more likely to even like to to instead of
Speaker 1: flopping backwards, you'll just hold your ground because you don't
Speaker 1: want to get hurt. To me, that is real basketball,
Speaker 1: and the the the bodies falling down to the ground,
Speaker 1: that's how guys break their wrists or spraying their wrists,
Speaker 1: that's how guys you know, spraying their ankles as they
Speaker 1: come landing down on people. It just turns into a
Speaker 1: really dangerous environment. And so for me, I'm a big
Speaker 1: fan with officiating of like, if it's a blatant charge,
Speaker 1: like if it's as cut in dry as it could
Speaker 1: possibly be, go ahead and call a charge, because you
Speaker 1: gotta give defenders some capability of stopping bigger, stronger athletes
Speaker 1: flying into the lane. But if it's a gray area
Speaker 1: at all, let it go. Let them play basketball. Call
Speaker 1: a blocking foul every time so that guys are less
Speaker 1: willing to slide up underneath athletes as they're flying through
Speaker 1: the lane. How bad would it have been if Steph
Speaker 1: Curry got hurt on that play? That would have been
Speaker 1: terrible for this series, terrible for the television product, terrible
Speaker 1: for the NBA and the health of the league to
Speaker 1: lose Steph Curry in a situation like that. The best
Speaker 1: way to avoid those kinds of risks is to limit
Speaker 1: the advantage gained from flopping all over the place underneath
Speaker 1: the basket, and the easiest way to do that is
Speaker 1: to call a lot fewer charges. But I am off
Speaker 1: of my referee, soapbox, let's get into the game a
Speaker 1: little bit. So obviously there was a down the stretch
Speaker 1: of that game. We're gonna get into the lineups that
Speaker 1: Golden State was using a why I thought they had
Speaker 1: so much success here in a minute, but down I
Speaker 1: want to talk about crunch time here at first. So
Speaker 1: obviously you have the stretch where Jordan Pool and Clay
Speaker 1: Thompson play really well, keeps Golden State in the game. Well,
Speaker 1: Steph hits a monster three with about four minutes left,
Speaker 1: right around four or five minutes left, and John Brant
Speaker 1: came back with this incredible sequence where where he drives
Speaker 1: to the basket and gets this like acrobatic up in
Speaker 1: under layup in transition. Then he runs back on defense
Speaker 1: and reads a rotation from Clay Thompson. Steph makes a
Speaker 1: beautiful skip pass to the corner to Clay Thompson, and
Speaker 1: John like closes out like he's gonna close at Clay,
Speaker 1: but instead of closing at Clay, he closed to the
Speaker 1: passing lane, so he closed to the spot next to Clay.
Speaker 1: Clay turned and made the swing pass to the next
Speaker 1: shooter and hit John right in the hands, and then
Speaker 1: jaw drives right down the floor and immediately kind of
Speaker 1: navigates into the lane and hits Brandon Clark for a
Speaker 1: layup under the rim, and now we're tied. It was
Speaker 1: an unbelievable sequence from John Moran on both ends of
Speaker 1: the floor. He's he's a bad defensive player at this
Speaker 1: point in his career, but he shows these flashes with
Speaker 1: his athleticism or he can make defensive plays, and that's
Speaker 1: a great foundation to build on as he gets, as
Speaker 1: he gets older and more experienced to become a more
Speaker 1: impactful defensive player. There was a play, uh kind of
Speaker 1: late in the game tied where John Moran got Jordan
Speaker 1: Pool on an island at the top key was right
Speaker 1: around uh, right around uh to two minutes left and
Speaker 1: one are we One of the things we talked about
Speaker 1: for this series was we know for a fact that
Speaker 1: Clay Thompson and Steph Curry and Jordan Pool are gonna
Speaker 1: struggle to guard John Morand in space. That's just that
Speaker 1: he's too fast and he's too skilled, and it's just
Speaker 1: a bad matchup for them. Stephen Clay for for Clay
Speaker 1: is very good at guarding bigger, more physical wings. Steph
Speaker 1: is a very good defensive player for the set of
Speaker 1: physical tools that he has, but there's very few players
Speaker 1: on the planet that can hope to contain John Moran
Speaker 1: and dribble drive situations, so you have to crowd him
Speaker 1: in those situations. And I thought it was really really
Speaker 1: interesting the difference in their defense on that play when
Speaker 1: Jordan Pool blew when uh, John Moran blew right by
Speaker 1: Jordan Pool and got the layup for the end one.
Speaker 1: But there was a pivotal play late in the game
Speaker 1: after Clay Thompson made the three to give Golden State
Speaker 1: the lead, where the exact same thing happened on the
Speaker 1: left wing where John Morick got Steph Curry on an island,
Speaker 1: but instead of leaving him on the island, Golden State
Speaker 1: sent quicker help. Before I got even close to the rim,
Speaker 1: he ended up going into a ton of traffic in
Speaker 1: missing a layup. And that's the difference. You can give
Speaker 1: up a matchup and to a guy like Jaw as
Speaker 1: long as there's tons of backside help. Where you get
Speaker 1: in trouble. It was when everyone stands around and gets
Speaker 1: glued up to their man. And now Jah has a
Speaker 1: head of steam because he goes right by Jordan Pool.
Speaker 1: And when you give an athlete like that that much
Speaker 1: of a head of steam, there's just no way you're
Speaker 1: gonna stop him around the basket. But Golden State made
Speaker 1: the adjustment and ended up getting the all important stop
Speaker 1: at the end of the game against John Murrean. This
Speaker 1: was not the play after the jump ball, but the
Speaker 1: one before where John Moran missed the layup over overstep
Speaker 1: going to the left. Then I was really curious when
Speaker 1: they were setting up for the inbounds play. I was
Speaker 1: they had Desmond bayned as the as the inbounder, and
Speaker 1: I was I was hoping for Memphis's sake that they
Speaker 1: would run something because they had Jaren Jackson Jr. Is
Speaker 1: the first player right by the inbounder with George and
Speaker 1: Pool on him. So I was thinking they were just
Speaker 1: gonna inbound to Jordan pool area or inbound to Jaren
Speaker 1: Jackson and do a quick handoff to Desmond Baine for
Speaker 1: a jump shot because I thought they could get a
Speaker 1: clean look from that. Instead, they had John Moran start
Speaker 1: out at half court and they did the exact same thing,
Speaker 1: but instead of looking to Baine, they looked to John
Speaker 1: Moran with the head of team. The problem is is
Speaker 1: that's the play you see coming a mile away. This
Speaker 1: is why we talked about this on the play where
Speaker 1: Andrew Wiggins uh and Otto Porter Jr. Botched that post
Speaker 1: entry that like lob over the top on that late
Speaker 1: inbounds play against Denver and all the Warriors fans were
Speaker 1: matt at Steve Kerr. There's a reason why you use
Speaker 1: your stars as decoys in a lot of situations, and
Speaker 1: those in those settings, especially when they're shorter players, and
Speaker 1: it's because the defense keys in on them and it's
Speaker 1: difficult for them to create their own shot. That's situation
Speaker 1: John Moran went flying into a ton of traffic and
Speaker 1: had to take this impossible left handed scoop shot off
Speaker 1: of the glass. Don't don't play. The Golden State knew
Speaker 1: that is coming. They were set up to guard job
Speaker 1: John Rand in the paint. There was only three seconds left,
Speaker 1: so you knew that as soon as Job put the
Speaker 1: ball on the floor, he wasn't gonna have time to
Speaker 1: make a kick out to a shooter. I would have
Speaker 1: gone to one of your taller players, someone like Jaren
Speaker 1: Jackson Jr. Someone like Desmond Bain to try to get
Speaker 1: a catch and shoot opportunity, because I think you could
Speaker 1: have gotten a better look in that situation. But just
Speaker 1: an incredibly interesting in an incredibly exciting game. I thought,
Speaker 1: what what allowed Golden State to to stay so successful
Speaker 1: in the second half without Draymond is the very thing
Speaker 1: that I've talked about so much on this show over
Speaker 1: the course the last five years, or over the course
Speaker 1: the last two years. And that's five out basketball. They
Speaker 1: uh to start the second half. You know, Steph hit
Speaker 1: a bunch of threes to kind of keep him in it.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of Keevan Looney, right, But then they
Speaker 1: took kevn Luni out and they brought in Auto Porter Jr.
Speaker 1: They brought in uh Gary Payton, and they brought in
Speaker 1: um Jonathan Cominga as your front court. So basically they
Speaker 1: went with to freak at Fleets and another six eight guy,
Speaker 1: all three of which are very good at the dirty
Speaker 1: work things. Otto Porter Jr. Has been a masterful rebounder
Speaker 1: for Golden State in over the course of this playoff run.
Speaker 1: It's been a huge weapon for them to make up
Speaker 1: for some of their lack of size. Well, they just
Speaker 1: went with those three guys and Clay Thompson and Jordan Pool,
Speaker 1: and the offense with Draymond Green works, So I'm not
Speaker 1: trying to talk about that. It's just a different type
Speaker 1: of offense. The the difference when Draymond's on the floor
Speaker 1: is he gets ignored a lot of the time, and
Speaker 1: what ends up happening is Stephen Clay will hit Draymond
Speaker 1: when he's open and then immediately cut off of him
Speaker 1: because Draymond is like instead of catching and shooting, they
Speaker 1: look at Draymond as basically an available dribble handoff. So
Speaker 1: they'll throw the ball to Draymond Green at the top
Speaker 1: of the key and then they'll fly off of him
Speaker 1: and Draymond will do a quick handoff. They're almost just
Speaker 1: there there. They just use him as a release valve
Speaker 1: to get the ball back. It's not like a spot
Speaker 1: up roll for Draymond by any stretch of imagination. That's
Speaker 1: why he doesn't take a ton of spot up threes. Right. Well,
Speaker 1: that's a completely different style of offense than when they
Speaker 1: have all five players as guys that are a little
Speaker 1: bit more of an offensive threat. And so as a result, uh,
Speaker 1: Jordan Pool and Clay Thompson at the end of the
Speaker 1: third quarter and beginning of the fourth quarter were given
Speaker 1: a boatload of space to operate in. Both of them
Speaker 1: put on masterful performances in that second half the the
Speaker 1: So the super interesting thing about the way that they
Speaker 1: attack those two guys, in particular when they're on the
Speaker 1: floor together is it's kind of like they build off
Speaker 1: of each other's advantages. So what will happen is is
Speaker 1: like Jordan Poole bring the ball up the floor and
Speaker 1: he'll be being guarded, uh, you know by someone like
Speaker 1: Desmond Baine, right, and he'll bring over John Morant's man
Speaker 1: to come over and set a screen. Whoever that is,
Speaker 1: whether that's Clay Thompson or Gary Payton Jr. Whoever it is.
Speaker 1: So Clay Gary Payton Jr. Whill comes at the screen
Speaker 1: and Jordan Poole will come off of that screen and
Speaker 1: John Morant does not want to switch because Memphis is
Speaker 1: trying to hide John Rant as much as possible in
Speaker 1: this series. So as a result, Jordan Pool will get
Speaker 1: into the lane a little bit. So get into about
Speaker 1: like that ten fifteen foot area with a live dribble,
Speaker 1: and the defense collapses on it right, But Jordan Pool
Speaker 1: doesn't force anything. He'll kick it out to the perimeter
Speaker 1: again to Clay Thompson. Now someone's closing out at Clay Thompson.
Speaker 1: Now Clay Thompson has an advantage. Clay Thompson will usually
Speaker 1: like pump fake and get the guy off his feet
Speaker 1: and then put the ball on the floor. Now he's
Speaker 1: got even more separation than Jordan Pool did in his
Speaker 1: first attack, and then either they'll score on that action
Speaker 1: or will get worked around again to Jordan's Pool. By
Speaker 1: this time, the defense has rotated and collapsed like three
Speaker 1: times and they're getting fantastic looks out of it. Jordan
Speaker 1: Pool and Clay Thompson and their ability to further compromise
Speaker 1: the defense with each time they attack a close out.
Speaker 1: Off of that first action is what keeps that thing
Speaker 1: moving so smoothly and how they kept getting such good shots,
Speaker 1: especially when they go in that five out setting. So
Speaker 1: the trick is is like, how can you realist stically
Speaker 1: apply that forward in this series with Draymond on the floor, Well,
Speaker 1: you try to play heavily into that style when Draymond's off.
Speaker 1: What I would do is I would almost Draymond talked
Speaker 1: a lot on his show about how he likes playing
Speaker 1: with Kevon Looney because Kevon Looney plays a more traditional
Speaker 1: back line defensive role and then Draymond can really roam
Speaker 1: around and be disruptive elsewhere on the floor. Maybe that's
Speaker 1: your opportunity to play play Looney and then in the
Speaker 1: minutes when Draymond's off the floor, you go back into
Speaker 1: that cominga Auto Porter Jr. And Gary Payton Junr. Front court,
Speaker 1: because then you have that super freak mobility with all
Speaker 1: of the shooting on the floor, and that's when you're
Speaker 1: getting all that five out stuff that you can get.
Speaker 1: I think there's a way for them to utilize that
Speaker 1: type of offense even with Draymond in there because you're
Speaker 1: better with Draymond. You're flat out better with Draymond because
Speaker 1: he makes you way way, way, way way better on
Speaker 1: the defensive end of the floor, and you can still
Speaker 1: thrive on offense because of all the chemistry that he
Speaker 1: has with Stephan Clay hunting them as three point shooters.
Speaker 1: So that was the the most interesting dynamic of this
Speaker 1: particular game was the way that the offense looked when
Speaker 1: Draymond was out. So moving on to Memphis really quick,
Speaker 1: the uh you could tell and the this was evident
Speaker 1: evidence in points in the paint and points in the paint.
Speaker 1: Golden State dominated in this game, and a huge part
Speaker 1: of that was, like I was saying, getting in the
Speaker 1: defense and rotation. But you were seeing a lot of
Speaker 1: opportunities for guys like Jonathan Cominga on the back line,
Speaker 1: guys like Gary Payton Jr. On the back line, Auto
Speaker 1: Porter Junior on the back line. That's where they were
Speaker 1: getting offensive rebound putbacks, that's where they were getting cuts
Speaker 1: to the basket for layups. There were There's a huge
Speaker 1: play at the end of the game where Steph Curry
Speaker 1: was working on the left side of the floor and
Speaker 1: they completely lost Andrew Wiggins on the backside as a cutter,
Speaker 1: and he ended up getting a layup that tied the game.
Speaker 1: Having that speed and savvy on the back line was
Speaker 1: giving lots of give, generating lots of quality stuff for
Speaker 1: Golden State. A couple things that were really interesting for
Speaker 1: Memphis that are concerning if you're a Memphis fan. Jared
Speaker 1: Jackson Jr. Shot the lights out, made six fres John
Speaker 1: Morant made four threes. I've talked a lot about how
Speaker 1: I think John Moran is going to project forward as
Speaker 1: a good shooter as he gets older, but right now
Speaker 1: he's pretty inconsistent for you to lose a game at
Speaker 1: home with Jaren Jackson Jr. Giving you six threes. There
Speaker 1: was a sequence there in the second half where the
Speaker 1: dude was flat out gunning off the catch early in
Speaker 1: the shot clock as the trailing big man and knocking
Speaker 1: down like seven ft threes. That's that's tough to replicate.
Speaker 1: And we and as you saw, when the Warriors had
Speaker 1: their defense set, they did a good job of containing
Speaker 1: John Moran and dribble drive scenarios. Where they struggled is
Speaker 1: when they weren't set and when they got too lazy
Speaker 1: off the ball and gave John Morant opportunities against weaker
Speaker 1: defenders on an island. But that'll be an interesting thing
Speaker 1: moving forward is how well can John morand shoot? How
Speaker 1: well can Jaren Jackson Jr. Shoot? Because they're not getting
Speaker 1: great stuff in the paint. You saw that in the
Speaker 1: Points in the Paint battle tonight. Looking forward in this series,
Speaker 1: it's just gonna be curious to see. I talked a
Speaker 1: lot about how Memphis Is physical advantages will be what
Speaker 1: carries them as the as the series progresses. In the
Speaker 1: first half, the Warriors actually out offensive rebounded um Memphis.
Speaker 1: They had ten in Memphis had eight. In the second half,
Speaker 1: Memphis started to wear them out on the offensive glass
Speaker 1: a little bit. We all know how that goes. When
Speaker 1: the team has the physical advantages, you can make up
Speaker 1: for it with effort to a certain extent. But the
Speaker 1: longer the games go, the longer the series is go,
Speaker 1: that's when those advantages become problematic. And there are simple
Speaker 1: physical mismatch type of UH matchups out there that are
Speaker 1: just gonna be difficult to deal with the entire series.
Speaker 1: There's a play late in the game, an inbounds play
Speaker 1: baseline out of bounds, Clay Thompson is guarding Brandon Clark.
Speaker 1: That's a huge mismatch. Well, guess what they did. They
Speaker 1: ran Desmond Bayne out to the perimeter, made it look
Speaker 1: like Brandon Clark was gonna set a screen for him
Speaker 1: to get out there, and then Brandon Clark just kind
Speaker 1: of rolled around to the front of the rim and
Speaker 1: they just threw it up to Brandon Clark right over
Speaker 1: the front of the rim. Clay Thompson had absolutely no
Speaker 1: no chance there because Brandon Clark is just bigger and
Speaker 1: taller and more athletic, and they got an easy lay
Speaker 1: up out of that in crunch time, you know, when
Speaker 1: when Golden States really dialed in defensively. So those are
Speaker 1: gonna be Memphis's greatest advantages as the series progresses. They're
Speaker 1: never gonna outskill Golden State. Golden States backcourt is the
Speaker 1: most skilled backcourt in the entire MBA. They have no
Speaker 1: chance there, but they can win physical matchups with Golden State.
Speaker 1: That's gonna be the curious part as we move forward
Speaker 1: in this series is how well can Memphis inflict those
Speaker 1: things on Golden State over the course of the series.
Speaker 1: I'm still leaning Golden State. I just still think it's
Speaker 1: gonna be a long series. I could see this one
Speaker 1: going six or seven games easily. All right, before we
Speaker 1: move on to Bucks and Celtics, I want to show
Speaker 1: you guys a promo about some other content we have
Speaker 1: here at the volume. Hi, it's Colin Coward. I started
Speaker 1: the volume to bring you some of the most apathetic
Speaker 1: voices in sports. While you're here, make sure you hit subscribe. Thanks.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to Bucks and Celtics. So
Speaker 1: this is a series that I've been incredibly excited for,
Speaker 1: obviously for a lot of different reasons. And it was
Speaker 1: a really really strange Game one, and in the playoffs,
Speaker 1: game one is always the strangest game. There's so much
Speaker 1: that goes into you know, there's a game plan that
Speaker 1: both teams have when they come into the game, and
Speaker 1: there's it's always very different from the game plan they
Speaker 1: end up having as the series progresses. You also can
Speaker 1: have things like one team coming in more confident or
Speaker 1: more comfortable, and to the Bucks credit, in this game,
Speaker 1: you could tell from the opening tip that they were
Speaker 1: a lot more confident and comfortable going into Boston than
Speaker 1: Brooklyn was, and that played out in a bunch of
Speaker 1: different areas of the game, obviously, and we predicted this
Speaker 1: before the series. We thought that mill Wwaukee would be
Speaker 1: more capable of handling Boston's physicality, and we knew that
Speaker 1: that was a weakness of Brooklyn's because they played so
Speaker 1: many thin and non physical players. But at the same time,
Speaker 1: we had some very specific data and signs that told
Speaker 1: us that Boston's defense would make Milwaukee struggle, and that's
Speaker 1: why I had to pick that I had. We're gonna
Speaker 1: get further into that as we go along today, but
Speaker 1: I want to start with the Bucks defense because there
Speaker 1: were I thought that Boston's offensive struggles, in their inability
Speaker 1: to consistently make the right reads against Milwaukee's defense, was
Speaker 1: what led to the transition on slot that compromised Boston's defense,
Speaker 1: which is the strength of their team. Obviously, we can't
Speaker 1: see the final metrics until they update on NBA dot Com,
Speaker 1: but I would imagine that in the half court, Boston's
Speaker 1: defensive rating looks excellent, but they got destroyed in transition.
Speaker 1: They gave up a twenty eight to eight fast breakpoint
Speaker 1: advantage to Milwaukee. They gave up a twenty seven to
Speaker 1: six points off of turnovers advantage. That's where this game
Speaker 1: was one was in the helter skelter up and down.
Speaker 1: How do transition possessions begin? Turnovers in bad shots, typically
Speaker 1: long jump shots that miss off of the rim, or
Speaker 1: a dude that gets all the way to the rim
Speaker 1: and misses a lay up. A missed lay up is
Speaker 1: always one of the most common plays to cause a
Speaker 1: transition possession because it usually involves a perimeter player driving
Speaker 1: to the basket and missing a shot around the rim
Speaker 1: while everyone else is running the other way. It's like
Speaker 1: an instantaneous advantage. We knew coming into this series that
Speaker 1: Milwaukee's defense I believe they were twelve in the regular season.
Speaker 1: It was either twelve or thirteenth. That can't remember exactly,
Speaker 1: but that's a middle of the pack defense. But we
Speaker 1: also knew that when we dove into the numbers, they
Speaker 1: were amazing at protecting the paint and they were amazing
Speaker 1: with their defensive rebounding. The reason why is all season
Speaker 1: long they tried to primarily play Janie at the four,
Speaker 1: either alongside Bobby Portis or towards the end of the
Speaker 1: season with Brooke Lopez, and the entire concept of their
Speaker 1: defense was owned the painted area at the expense of
Speaker 1: everything on the back end. Like we talked about, Milwaukee
Speaker 1: led the league and giving up wide open threes this
Speaker 1: season defender at least six feet away, which is exactly
Speaker 1: why their defensive metrics were nowhere near as good as
Speaker 1: the other teams around the league. And I thought one
Speaker 1: of the biggest reasons why most of the Boston offensive players, Tatum,
Speaker 1: I thought, had a pretty good game, very similar to
Speaker 1: his games against Brooklyn. He's observed he's absorbing the most
Speaker 1: defensive attention, he has the most difficult job, but he
Speaker 1: still did a lot to create offense. First team, it
Speaker 1: was the Marcus Smarts and the Jalen Browns and the
Speaker 1: Derrek Whites, the other guys that had the ball in
Speaker 1: their hand on the perimeter making decisions that really really
Speaker 1: struggled against Milwaukee's defense, and even Tatum did at stretches,
Speaker 1: but it all had to do with like playing right
Speaker 1: into Milwaukee's defensive strengths. Think about how many times today
Speaker 1: you saw, you know, Jalen Brown or Jayson Tatum, test
Speaker 1: Brook Lopez or Janis Antenna Cumbo at the rim, even
Speaker 1: though you knew that was a low percentage play. And
Speaker 1: it's literally the way that Milwaukee's defense is set up.
Speaker 1: If you play into their strengths around the basket, then
Speaker 1: Milwaukee becomes an elite defensive team rather than an average
Speaker 1: defensive team. There were two plays in particular that I
Speaker 1: wanted to kind of use to demonstrate what I'm talking about.
Speaker 1: So there was a play in the second half or
Speaker 1: Jason Tatum uses a ball screen at the top of
Speaker 1: the key. I believe it was Al Horford setting it,
Speaker 1: but I can't remember exactly. But Brook Lopez was the
Speaker 1: big man up at the screen. He was defending the screen,
Speaker 1: and because Tatum is so good off the dribble with
Speaker 1: his jump shot, Brooke had to come up high. So
Speaker 1: Brooke is, you know, up around the three point line
Speaker 1: and Tatum easily splits. But Janice is on the floor,
Speaker 1: and you know that the next step in Milwaukee's rotation
Speaker 1: is Janice is gonna come over and protect the rim.
Speaker 1: And there was a wide open shooter in the left
Speaker 1: corner and Janie and er Tatum instead decided to test Jannie,
Speaker 1: and Jannat blocked it. All series are all series long.
Speaker 1: As often as Boston attempts to challenge sitting shot blockers
Speaker 1: at the rim. They're going to struggle. That's just the
Speaker 1: nature of the way this defense works. In this game. Today,
Speaker 1: the Celtics were ten for thirty four from two point range.
Speaker 1: That's twenty points on thirty four possessions, or point five
Speaker 1: eight points per attempt. Every time they attempted to score
Speaker 1: in the painted area and went poorly for them, they
Speaker 1: attempted fifty three point shots. That seems like a lot, right,
Speaker 1: and they didn't even shoot particularly well. I believe they
Speaker 1: only made eighteen. But the differences is when you make
Speaker 1: eighteen threes on fifty attempts, that comes out to fifty
Speaker 1: four points on fifty shots, which come out to one
Speaker 1: point zero eight points per possession. So they were scoring
Speaker 1: twice as many points on their three point attempts per
Speaker 1: shot then they were on stuff in the paint. Now
Speaker 1: people will say, Jason, does that mean that you're just
Speaker 1: supposed to take threes all game long? No, it's just
Speaker 1: those are that's the way you Every possession is about
Speaker 1: making a read on that specific possession. When Jayson Tatum
Speaker 1: gets to the rim off of a split with Broglopez,
Speaker 1: it's not his job to score, just because he feels
Speaker 1: like it's time for him to score. No, you make
Speaker 1: the read, and the read was Janice came over to help.
Speaker 1: There was a wide open shooter in the week side corner.
Speaker 1: You have to make that read every time. There was
Speaker 1: a play second play in the second half that I
Speaker 1: wanted to use to demonstrate this. Jalen Brown. Jalen Brown
Speaker 1: had a really bad offensive night. So what do you
Speaker 1: do when you're having a bad offensive night. You kind
Speaker 1: of try to continue to force the action. You try
Speaker 1: to make something happen to get your rhythm going, to
Speaker 1: get your confidence going, to get it into to score,
Speaker 1: to hopefully get the lid off the rim so that
Speaker 1: you feel better about yourself, and so only everything starts
Speaker 1: to click a little better. So I get that that's
Speaker 1: why players try to force when they're struggling. There's a
Speaker 1: play I believe he was. I believe he was working
Speaker 1: against Pat connat him and I can't remember exactly who
Speaker 1: he was guarding in isolation, but Grant Williams was sitting
Speaker 1: on his left side in the corner, completely unguarded, and
Speaker 1: Bobby Portis was ignoring Grant Williams and coming over and
Speaker 1: straight up double teaming Jalen Brown at one point didn't
Speaker 1: even look at Grant Williams. Then, uh after after that,
Speaker 1: Portis kind of stunts back out for a second and
Speaker 1: Brown goes to work. As soon as he puts the
Speaker 1: ball on the floor, Portis comes over and doubles again,
Speaker 1: and Grant Williams is standing wide open on the wing again,
Speaker 1: and he just didn't look at him, and instead he
Speaker 1: worked into the land. He pumped, faked, He ended up
Speaker 1: losing a shot attempt. He ended up losing a shot
Speaker 1: attempt and kicking it out, and I think Peyton Pritchard
Speaker 1: had to do a last second heave right before the
Speaker 1: end of the shot clock. But again, it's like you
Speaker 1: don't do what you think you're supposed to do because
Speaker 1: you haven't scored in a while, or because you're trying
Speaker 1: to build your rhythm. Every possession you play basketball, you
Speaker 1: make reads. If the defense is taking away the paint,
Speaker 1: you have to consistently kick out the three point shooters
Speaker 1: and trust the results. Even if you miss two or
Speaker 1: three in a row, you know, over the course of
Speaker 1: the game, on your shot quality, you're going to score.
Speaker 1: The Celtics did not shoot well tonight, and they still
Speaker 1: got one point zero eight points per every three point
Speaker 1: shot they took. So then what you'll see if you
Speaker 1: consistently make those reads and you consistently kick out, your
Speaker 1: three point shots will go up early in the game.
Speaker 1: But what will happen is it starts to lead to
Speaker 1: an outcome on the scoreboard where Milwaukee's giving up too
Speaker 1: many points. Suddenly they'll be a little less willing to double,
Speaker 1: a little less willing to rotate back to the paint.
Speaker 1: That's when your opportunities are easier around the basket. You
Speaker 1: look at the point of the shot dispersion tonight, you're
Speaker 1: taking fifty three's and thirty four twos. If you do
Speaker 1: those reads exactly like I'm saying, it may result in
Speaker 1: the same split. It might be fifty threes again, and
Speaker 1: it might be thirty four two s, but the differences
Speaker 1: more of the threes might be earlier in the game,
Speaker 1: and the paint will be open later in the game.
Speaker 1: Now you're shooting percentages go up because the quality of
Speaker 1: all of those shots are better. Instead of taking thirty
Speaker 1: four bad twos and fifty if e three's, you're taking
Speaker 1: thirty four good twos and fifty good threes. And then
Speaker 1: your shot quality goes up, your percentages go up, and
Speaker 1: that's when you start to see it manifest on the scoreboard.
Speaker 1: But all of those dynamics, that dynamic of Boston perpetually
Speaker 1: driving into the teeth of Milwaukee's defense and having no success.
Speaker 1: That led to Marcus Smart having a rough night, That
Speaker 1: led to Jalen Brown having a rough night. That led
Speaker 1: to a lot of guys feeling uncomfortable in in in
Speaker 1: out of rhythm offensively. So what happens on the other end,
Speaker 1: Drew Holiday and Bobby Portis they feel very comfortable because
Speaker 1: they're playing the same style of basketball that they always
Speaker 1: played by Bobby Portis. Drew Holiday at forty points on
Speaker 1: thirty two shots, compared to Jalen Brown and Marcus Smart
Speaker 1: having twenty two points on twenty four shots. If you
Speaker 1: were ranking the players in this game, you're probably naming
Speaker 1: at least four Milwaukee Bucks before you get to a
Speaker 1: second Celtic, if not more. That's the dynamic that happened there.
Speaker 1: A bunch of Celtics players played poorly because they were
Speaker 1: getting out of rhythm offensively, and then on the other
Speaker 1: end of the floor, Milwaukee was getting fantastic looks in
Speaker 1: transition because of the struggle that Boston was had. Looking
Speaker 1: at Boston on defense, I actually thought they defended really well.
Speaker 1: They made Joanna struggle. He was nine for twenty five
Speaker 1: from the field. A lot of people were saying, like, oh,
Speaker 1: Janice had a poor shooting night. That's by design. Guys
Speaker 1: like uh, and again, and Janice played a great game.
Speaker 1: For the record, we're gonna talk about janice is all
Speaker 1: around impact here in a minute. I didn't a couple
Speaker 1: of things that people need to understand about when I'm
Speaker 1: making these picks. I didn't say that. I thought, you know, uh,
Speaker 1: Janice was gonna struggle because I dislike Janice. I thought,
Speaker 1: honest was gonna struggle because I think Kevin Durant was
Speaker 1: the best player in the league. I that's what I
Speaker 1: thought before the series. But he's no worse than a
Speaker 1: top three player in the league, and he really struggled.
Speaker 1: So that's the credit. Boston's defense has been the best
Speaker 1: defense in the league all season. They've been by far
Speaker 1: the best defense in the league in the last half
Speaker 1: of the season. There's a reason why I thought Janice
Speaker 1: would struggle the way that he did, and he did.
Speaker 1: To Janice his credit. He did a lot of things
Speaker 1: that I talked about succeeding in transitioning around the rim,
Speaker 1: you know, because he thrives in the physicality and the
Speaker 1: biggest area where Janice and this is something that Katie
Speaker 1: really struggled with. In the last round. Janice had twelve
Speaker 1: assists tonight. Some of that was his teammates shooting the
Speaker 1: ball really well. Milwaukee shot really well while the game
Speaker 1: was still in question early on, but Janice was consistently
Speaker 1: willing to make the right reads to make Boston pay
Speaker 1: for their overaggression. I thought Milwaukee did some really smart stuff.
Speaker 1: They would have um Grayson Allen always one pass away
Speaker 1: so that when the double teams came in and the
Speaker 1: alter skelter, when all the bodies were coming at Janice,
Speaker 1: he always had this easy kick out to Grayson. And
Speaker 1: one of the nice things with Grayson is he's not
Speaker 1: only a confident three point shooter, but he's confident further out,
Speaker 1: like it's the NBA three point line is, you know,
Speaker 1: right around that fet right, but the the Grayson would
Speaker 1: is comfortable out to like twenty seven feet, So it's
Speaker 1: like a release valve where you can kick to him,
Speaker 1: and he's comfortable knocking down these deep three point shots.
Speaker 1: A lot of like really smart stuff from Milwaukee to
Speaker 1: make it so that Janice the double teams resulting were
Speaker 1: resulting in quality shots on the other end. But again
Speaker 1: I thought, I thought shot making was a huge part
Speaker 1: of this. Look at the look at all of the
Speaker 1: times Drew Holiday in this game scored over contests. So
Speaker 1: I'm excited to get into the film on this tomorrow.
Speaker 1: But one of the things that really hurt Boston is
Speaker 1: they didn't have anybody if you look at their shot chart.
Speaker 1: If you look at Boston shot chart, it's all threes
Speaker 1: and then misses in the painted area. They didn't have
Speaker 1: anybody that was like comfortable operating out of the mid range.
Speaker 1: And Drew Holiday in particular was getting all these little
Speaker 1: pop shots and floaters and and pull up two's and
Speaker 1: things in the midrange that he was making. It was
Speaker 1: like it was where Milwaukee was getting a lot of
Speaker 1: their offense in the half court in particular, A ton
Speaker 1: of a credit to him, Bobby Portis was able to
Speaker 1: attack Jalen Brown in the post and get good shots
Speaker 1: almost every time. That's a that's a matchup thing that
Speaker 1: you can't lose if your Boston. You can't have your
Speaker 1: second best player lose a matchup head to head on
Speaker 1: both ends of the floor to like the fifth best
Speaker 1: player on Milwaukee. That's gonna be a problem for Boston.
Speaker 1: Those are little areas where they that there's not really
Speaker 1: much scheming you can talk about. It's just they have
Speaker 1: to be better. Jalen Brown has to be better at
Speaker 1: making shots in isolation situations then Bobby Portis is. If
Speaker 1: that dynamic goes the other way, that's gonna be a problem.
Speaker 1: But I wanted to give some credit to overall to
Speaker 1: the championship poise of Milwaukee, because in all the things
Speaker 1: that I just discussed with Boston really struggling with their
Speaker 1: decision jian making and just being smart basketball players, they
Speaker 1: got out of whack. They didn't even really resemble themselves, right,
Speaker 1: That's that's the lack of experience and the lack of
Speaker 1: confidence to handle that type of situation. Milwaukee, they came
Speaker 1: in like we're you know, we know exactly who we are,
Speaker 1: we know what this environment is going to be, like,
Speaker 1: we don't care how physical it is. We've been trailing
Speaker 1: to zero in the series before, just like they did
Speaker 1: last year against Phoenix. They've been They were down to
Speaker 1: zero against Brooklyn, like like Milwaukee is just not scared
Speaker 1: of anything, and they came in like champs and they
Speaker 1: were confident all night long. And as a result, they
Speaker 1: threw a very good first punch and Boston's first punch
Speaker 1: in the series was one of their worst punches. That's
Speaker 1: an example of inexperience. And that's something that they'll have
Speaker 1: to figure out when I'm looking at Boston looking for
Speaker 1: And then one last note there with Janice again, just
Speaker 1: the difference between him and KD right now, and the
Speaker 1: reason why I have to put Janice ahead of k
Speaker 1: D now is he's demonstrating for us in this series
Speaker 1: that even though he's shooting poorly just like k D did,
Speaker 1: even though he's turning the ball over a lot, just
Speaker 1: like he did it had five I think he had
Speaker 1: at least five turnovers tonight. Again, like he's having all
Speaker 1: the same struggles that k D did, just like we
Speaker 1: predicted he would in this series. But he's impacting, winning
Speaker 1: monstrously as a rim protector on defense and as a
Speaker 1: playmaker on offense, and just those two things were a
Speaker 1: massive swing factor in this game. And that's the reason
Speaker 1: why I valued those skills so much over the years.
Speaker 1: And it's a massive credit to honest And those are
Speaker 1: the leaps that he's made as a player that have
Speaker 1: made him the best player in the world. Not a
Speaker 1: jump shot, not a turnaround, nifty post up, not a
Speaker 1: one legged fade away, not him knocking down threes. It's
Speaker 1: that stuff. Defending like crazy, like a defensive player of
Speaker 1: the Year, and playmaking when defensive send you tons of attention,
Speaker 1: those are the things that end up determining, uh, these outcomes.
Speaker 1: A couple of quick notes before we move on for
Speaker 1: those of people, people who want to take victory apps.
Speaker 1: Because I was very high in Boston. I said, I
Speaker 1: thought they were the best defense of this era. I
Speaker 1: picked them to win the series in five games. First
Speaker 1: of all, wasn't that crazy of the take? Boston was
Speaker 1: a minus two hundred favorite in Vegas before before the series,
Speaker 1: like they were the better team from everybody who was
Speaker 1: paying attention up until this point. Okay, Like it's not
Speaker 1: exactly a shock. It would app if you picked Milwaukee
Speaker 1: to win this series, you were picking an upset. If
Speaker 1: you happen to be right, that's awesome. I will absolutely
Speaker 1: acknowledge that if we get to that point, but there's
Speaker 1: a lot of evidence to back up the claims that
Speaker 1: I was making. I said Boston was the best defense
Speaker 1: of this era. They literally were the number one defense
Speaker 1: in the league for the entire regular season. Ever since
Speaker 1: January three, they were five points better per one hund
Speaker 1: possession than everybody in the entire league. On the defensive
Speaker 1: end of the floor, they took Katie and Kyrie, who
Speaker 1: averaged a hundred and twenty three points per Hunter possessions
Speaker 1: on offense in the regular season, and brought that down
Speaker 1: to one thirteen. They held him ten points below the
Speaker 1: regular season average. We have tons of evidence of how
Speaker 1: great this Boston defense is, and they were excellent again
Speaker 1: tonight in the half court. So Boston played poorly there there.
Speaker 1: Milwaukee clearly demonstrated some things that are going to be
Speaker 1: interesting as the series progresses, but I'm still picking Boston.
Speaker 1: I never overreact to Game ones. I literally watched I've
Speaker 1: seen so many all of you guys have seen so
Speaker 1: many examples over the years of a team going on
Speaker 1: the road in Game one and having an impressive win
Speaker 1: and then the better team taking control no different than
Speaker 1: when the Celtics one in Milwaukee with Kyrie a couple
Speaker 1: of years ago and then got swept the rest of
Speaker 1: the way. It's the better team is Boston. They've demonstrated
Speaker 1: that over an extensive stretch. If Milwaukee wins this series,
Speaker 1: it will be an example of the fact that we
Speaker 1: are that the evidence that we saw over the course
Speaker 1: of the last six months was was inaccurate compared to
Speaker 1: what Milwaukee's playoff ceiling was. And if that happens, we
Speaker 1: react at that point. But I'm never going to react
Speaker 1: after Game one. Guys, if Milwaukee sweeps Boston, I'm not
Speaker 1: gonna sit here and go down with the ship. I
Speaker 1: will happily admit that I was wrong about something. We're
Speaker 1: just not there yet. If we get there, we'll confronted
Speaker 1: at that point. And then last note, looking forward in
Speaker 1: this series with Boston again, it's just role players have
Speaker 1: to play better. Marcus Smartin and Jalen Brown have to
Speaker 1: be able to at least compete as shot makers and
Speaker 1: decision makers with Drew Holiday and Bobby Portis. You can't
Speaker 1: get beaten those matchups. Their half court defense was excellent.
Speaker 1: We will take a closer look at that tomorrow in
Speaker 1: some film. Um, but they got killed in transition, so
Speaker 1: they need to execute better on offense so that they
Speaker 1: don't get killed in transition. And then one adjustment for
Speaker 1: Milwaukee with Joannice. I thought Joannice was a little bit uh.
Speaker 1: He did some great playmaking, but he also was a
Speaker 1: little bit of a gunner and took some shots in
Speaker 1: traffic that he probably shouldn't have. I think Milwaukee, Uh,
Speaker 1: it's similar to the way Tatum is just kind of
Speaker 1: taking attention and trying to make plays for his teammates.
Speaker 1: I'd like to see Janice tone back a little bit
Speaker 1: on some of the shots in traffic because those I
Speaker 1: think in at her punch from Boston, that kind of
Speaker 1: dynamic could get you beat. You're getting easy looks when
Speaker 1: you're passing out of that. That needs to be honest
Speaker 1: as approach. Moving forward, super excited to see the rest
Speaker 1: of the series. Again, I'm still sticking with Boston, but
Speaker 1: this makes it complicated. I picked Boston in five. The
Speaker 1: trick is is I think Milwaukee gets one of Game
Speaker 1: three or four on their home floor, so now that
Speaker 1: suddenly pushes it to six. Game six is in Milwaukee.
Speaker 1: That's gonna be a game where now with with them
Speaker 1: having home court, that could be a game that Milwaukee
Speaker 1: is probably gonna be favored in. Right, So I'm still
Speaker 1: leaning Boston, but this probably means it's gonna be a
Speaker 1: longer series and could very well go seven. Hi, It's
Speaker 1: Colin Coward. I started the volume to bring you some
Speaker 1: of the most apathetic voices in sports. While you're here,
Speaker 1: make sure you hit subscribe. Thanks. One last note on
Speaker 1: the Celtics. They did update the NBA dot Com numbers
Speaker 1: and Celtics only gave up a hundred points per one
Speaker 1: possessions today, which is a great number. And when you
Speaker 1: look at how successful Milwaukee was in transition, we laid
Speaker 1: those numbers out to eight in fast breakpoint advantages, you know,
Speaker 1: twenty six to seven and points off the turnovers. My
Speaker 1: guess is tomorrow, when I go look into cleaning the
Speaker 1: glass and see the stats that Boston's half court defense
Speaker 1: against Milwaukee was phenomenal. That is a good thing that
Speaker 1: they can move forward with in this series. A good
Speaker 1: way too, because now they have to win four the
Speaker 1: next six games, right, and a good way to do
Speaker 1: that is to be able to get stops in the
Speaker 1: half court because you can limit your mistakes with better
Speaker 1: decision making in the half court, avoiding turnovers, better shot
Speaker 1: selection to avoid those runouts. That is a positive sign
Speaker 1: if you're Boston looking forward. Before we move on, because
Speaker 1: we're gonna talk a little bit about this Joel and
Speaker 1: Beat News, I wanted to hit our housekeeping notes one
Speaker 1: more time. Make sure you like this video and subscribe
Speaker 1: to the Volumes YouTube channel so you don't miss any
Speaker 1: more of our content. Check out our newsletter. There is
Speaker 1: a link to subscribe to it in the description of
Speaker 1: this video. It's a great way to keep up with
Speaker 1: all of our content and see what's coming on the horizon. Also,
Speaker 1: make sure you check out our boss man, Colin Cowards podcast.
Speaker 1: He's got a surprising winner for this year's NFL Draft,
Speaker 1: and Draymond Green all. This is the place to get
Speaker 1: Draymond Green content. It's the best content in sports right now.
Speaker 1: You're getting instant reactions from a player that's in the
Speaker 1: trenches in this playoff series. I think it's such incredible content.
Speaker 1: He will be reacting to Game one of this series
Speaker 1: in the next twenty four hours. You won't want to
Speaker 1: miss that. And then last but not least, do not
Speaker 1: forget to follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT.
Speaker 1: Every morning, I wake up and I watched the film
Speaker 1: from the previous night, and I do breakdowns and I
Speaker 1: give you video examples of all of the things that
Speaker 1: I'm talking about, so you can kind of see the
Speaker 1: actual basketball stuff that that that you can actually see
Speaker 1: how I reach these conclusions. And I do those breakdowns
Speaker 1: each morning. So follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason LT.
Speaker 1: All right, so let's move on to this Joel embiad news.
Speaker 1: So we did a full length YouTube breakdown of this
Speaker 1: series that you can find on our Volume YouTube channel
Speaker 1: right now just by scrolling down. And so if you
Speaker 1: want to see all of the details and the weeds,
Speaker 1: that's the play to go. The thing that was a
Speaker 1: throwoff for me in this particular series was how much
Speaker 1: is MBI gonna play? When the original shampsire any report
Speaker 1: came out, it was so like vague. It was like,
Speaker 1: we're shutting him down, but like we don't know how long.
Speaker 1: Does this mean he's out for the season. Does this
Speaker 1: mean he's you know, gonna come back in time for
Speaker 1: Game one? Well, we got more information on that he's
Speaker 1: going to miss at least games one and two in Miami,
Speaker 1: and that is that's tough because when I was when
Speaker 1: I did my breakdown, I factored in and beat available
Speaker 1: for all the games because I was like, I have
Speaker 1: no idea what to expect here, might as well try
Speaker 1: to prep for the series as if O L is playing.
Speaker 1: And I had originally picked the sixers in six games,
Speaker 1: and I did a I had a bunch of reasons
Speaker 1: for that, Mainly, I think people are underestimating just how
Speaker 1: important it is to have great shooting off of Joel Embiid.
Speaker 1: And one of the huge swing factors in that Toronto
Speaker 1: Raptors series was Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxie and Danny Green
Speaker 1: and George's kneeing, those four guys just being deadly in
Speaker 1: spot up roles. Those four guys were eleven for twenty
Speaker 1: three from three in the close out game in Toronto.
Speaker 1: And so what's happening is even though Embiad is struggling
Speaker 1: with the double teams at first, even though he's just
Speaker 1: making like that quick swing pass out to the perimeter,
Speaker 1: they're working it around and really good, frankly overqualified players
Speaker 1: for the roles that they're being asked to field are
Speaker 1: capitalizing off of all that attention, and so I thought
Speaker 1: that specifically, uh Philly's ability to capitalize on that defensive
Speaker 1: tension was going to give them their best chance to
Speaker 1: win this series. Miami. There's a lot of like p J.
Speaker 1: Tucker in there. There's a lot of like bamat a Bio,
Speaker 1: guys that you don't necessarily have to guard out at
Speaker 1: the three point line that can really affect their spacing.
Speaker 1: The core lineup for Philly Joel m b James Hard
Speaker 1: and Tyrese Maxie, Danny Green and Tobias Harris. There's nobody
Speaker 1: in that group that you can leave wide open. They
Speaker 1: will burn you consistently. And so that's the dynamic in
Speaker 1: that series that that that I liked a lot. But
Speaker 1: with Joel em beat out, it gets tricky. We just
Speaker 1: talked about this with the Celtics. You know, the home
Speaker 1: court thing plays a significant role a lot of times.
Speaker 1: While you pick an underdog in Game six is because
Speaker 1: they steal a game on the road and then they
Speaker 1: win a home game in Game six. As if that
Speaker 1: dynamic gets thrown off by a winner a loss. Early on,
Speaker 1: I picked the Celtics in five because I thought they'd
Speaker 1: win games one and two. Then I thought they'd lose
Speaker 1: one of the two games in Milwaukee and then take
Speaker 1: a three one lead home to Boston, where it'd be
Speaker 1: extremely difficult to lose a closeout game in front of
Speaker 1: your home crowd. But losing game one now puts you
Speaker 1: in a weird predicament where to have a close out
Speaker 1: opportunity at home, you either have to win both games
Speaker 1: in Milwaukee or you have to close them out in
Speaker 1: game seven, where anything can happen. That's the dynamic of
Speaker 1: home court advantage in a playoff series, and how tricky
Speaker 1: that can get. So for the Sixers, like you're going
Speaker 1: to Miami without Joel Embiid, You're probably gonna lose both
Speaker 1: of those games. So now you're down two games to none.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of pressure on you at home to
Speaker 1: hold home court if you lose one of those games.
Speaker 1: Now you're down three one going back to Miami in
Speaker 1: a closeout game. So it gets really tricky for me
Speaker 1: to continue saying sixers and six when Joe, when Joel
Speaker 1: embiads gonna miss the first two games, And what's so
Speaker 1: funny about that is, like, let's back up in time
Speaker 1: really quick to two eighteen, and Chris Paul and James
Speaker 1: Harden are at the top of the basketball world practically
Speaker 1: with an opportunity to beat the Warriors and have a
Speaker 1: chance to win an NBA championship. Chris Paul pulls his hamstring.
Speaker 1: They lose. Then in two thousand nineteen, they have a
Speaker 1: disappointing loss to the Warriors where Kevin Durank goes down
Speaker 1: and they still lose in six games. Right, Well, at
Speaker 1: for that, we have a falling out between James Harden
Speaker 1: and Chris Paul. He ships Chris Paul off. He thinks
Speaker 1: he's not good enough to be a teammate of his
Speaker 1: ops for Russell Westbrook instead. Not the first guy too,
Speaker 1: I'm not the last guy, I should say to make
Speaker 1: that mistake. Well, what's super interesting about this is now
Speaker 1: we fast forward two. Chris Paul is the old guy.
Speaker 1: Chris Paul is the one that's at an age disadvantage
Speaker 1: here with all the mileage. Okay, Devin Booker goes down
Speaker 1: the hamstring injury in Game two. What did I tell
Speaker 1: you guys on the show? I said, Chris Paul will
Speaker 1: win this series without Devin Booker. He is playing some
Speaker 1: of the best basketball of his career. All he has
Speaker 1: to do is float the ship long enough for Devin
Speaker 1: Booker to get back, then they'll have the chance. Do
Speaker 1: any of you think that James Harden can go into
Speaker 1: Miami and steal a game. He might, and if he
Speaker 1: does again, I'll be the first guy to come up
Speaker 1: here and give him props. But if I said, if
Speaker 1: I said Philly was gonna steal a game in Miami
Speaker 1: over the course of the next three days, what do
Speaker 1: you think would be the driving force behind that? I
Speaker 1: would say the most likely outcome there as Tyrese max
Speaker 1: He goes off and Tyrese Maxie has like a thirty
Speaker 1: eight point night where he just torches everybody in transition,
Speaker 1: flying up and down the floor. Like your confidence factor
Speaker 1: in James Harden and his ability to steal one of
Speaker 1: these games to buy Joel Embi the opportunity to get
Speaker 1: right and get back on on the core on the court,
Speaker 1: your confidence factor and James Harden is extraordinarily low, right,
Speaker 1: whereas Chris Paul, You're like, yeah, he's probably gonna do it.
Speaker 1: And even above and beyond that game six, Chris Paul
Speaker 1: has one of the greatest playoff performances of all time
Speaker 1: and goes fourteen for fourteen from the field, the staving
Speaker 1: off that game seven where anything can happen. It's just
Speaker 1: an unbelievably ironic turn of events to where Chris Paul
Speaker 1: is like, definitively a better basketball player than James Harden
Speaker 1: right now at his age, which is completely ridiculous, a
Speaker 1: far more dependable playoff player. Just a bizarre turn of
Speaker 1: a and and honestly like it. Kind of I hate
Speaker 1: revisionist history, but it kind of we have to look
Speaker 1: back at that two thousand eighteen rockets run is a
Speaker 1: little bit more of a Chris Paul thing. Not that
Speaker 1: James Harden wasn't amazing at that time, because he was,
Speaker 1: but Chris Paul and what he brought to the table
Speaker 1: complimented James Harden so well and covered so many of
Speaker 1: his flaws. Hopefully one day James Harden appreciates that, because
Speaker 1: that was that was a significant ally that he had
Speaker 1: in his corner that he turned away, you know, for
Speaker 1: a lot of different reasons, but I would argue and
Speaker 1: had a lot to do with the fact that Chris
Speaker 1: Paul is that type of dead serious competitor that James
Speaker 1: Harden cannot be from time to time, and that causes
Speaker 1: problems as far as it pick for this series. It's
Speaker 1: so difficult to tell. There's no guarantee that that joe
Speaker 1: El Embie is gonna come back in game three. To me,
Speaker 1: losing those first two games of Joel Embi just puts
Speaker 1: them too far behind the eight ball. It's just too
Speaker 1: difficult to expect them to win the games that they
Speaker 1: would need to win without him and have a chance
Speaker 1: to win this series. So now with the news that
Speaker 1: all and Beat is out for the first two games
Speaker 1: of the series, I'm actually gonna go back to uh
Speaker 1: picking Miami to win this series. Going down two oh
Speaker 1: is just it's it's just an incredibly difficult hole to
Speaker 1: dig yourself out of. So I'm gonna go with Miami
Speaker 1: really quickly. Before we get out of here tonight, I
Speaker 1: just want to talk for a quick second about Luca
Speaker 1: and the Sons again. We did a full We did
Speaker 1: a full breakdown of this on the YouTube channel, so
Speaker 1: you can scroll down and you could see it there.
Speaker 1: This series, to me, there's two dynamics that I think
Speaker 1: are gonna swing that are gonna be the key swing factors.
Speaker 1: So for Dallas on offense, it's gonna be how frequently
Speaker 1: can Luca get Chris Paul and Devin Booker on an island?
Speaker 1: Because he is one of the best big body mismatch
Speaker 1: attackers that we have in the league because of his ability,
Speaker 1: he's kind of like Yokich in the sense that he's
Speaker 1: so good at using body positioning on smaller defenders to
Speaker 1: kind of pin them in places where they don't affect
Speaker 1: him shooting. And he has all these arsenals, this like
Speaker 1: deep arsenal of mid range jump shots that are turning
Speaker 1: around over both shoulders to like push shots and floaters
Speaker 1: and things around that ten foot line that makes him
Speaker 1: so incredibly difficult to guard. And this is not like
Speaker 1: a This is not gonna be like a team that
Speaker 1: has a ton of length and athleticism on the floor
Speaker 1: at all times. Phoenix will regularly have guys like Devin
Speaker 1: Booker Chris Paul campaign on the floor where you have
Speaker 1: opportunities for Luca to attack. How willing is Phoenix to
Speaker 1: give up those switches because they're gonna have Michhail Bridges
Speaker 1: guard Luca the entire game if they can find a
Speaker 1: way to navigate all those screens with Michael Bridges so
Speaker 1: that he doesn't get off a Luca that often. That
Speaker 1: could be a big swing factor for Phoenix. And then
Speaker 1: on the other end of the floor, it's the opposite
Speaker 1: of the Utah Jazz dynamic. Dallas was able to have
Speaker 1: a lot of success switching against Utah because when they'd switched,
Speaker 1: Rudy Gobert could not make them pay. Rudy Gobert is
Speaker 1: not capable of it. He's one of the worst, like
Speaker 1: as far as guys who are highly paid, he's one
Speaker 1: of the worst, like interior scorers in the league as
Speaker 1: as a big man. That's that's that's difficult to deal
Speaker 1: with in a switching scheme because you're gonna put a
Speaker 1: guy like Jalen bruntson and onto Rudy Gobert and back
Speaker 1: him into the paint and he's holding his arm of
Speaker 1: calling for the ball no one, no one even wants
Speaker 1: to give it to him. Well, that's not the case
Speaker 1: with DeAndre Aton. Chris Paul and DeAndre Aton have this
Speaker 1: amazing chemistry to where when they get those switches, which
Speaker 1: Dallas is gonna do a lot of switching in those scenarios.
Speaker 1: My guess is they'll drop in specific scenarios, but they'll
Speaker 1: do a lot of switching in those switch scenarios. Chris
Speaker 1: Paul is just gonna pull the bout ball back out
Speaker 1: and he's gonna dump it into DeAndre Ayton. DeAndre Ayton
Speaker 1: is great at doing a quick seal and then turning
Speaker 1: over his left shoulder with a right handed hook, and
Speaker 1: he makes it about half the time, which is a
Speaker 1: really good way to go attacking switches. That's a dominant
Speaker 1: card to have in your hand in that type of situation.
Speaker 1: That's gonna be really interesting series. Again, if you guys
Speaker 1: want to see more detailed in a breakdown of this series,
Speaker 1: scroll down on our YouTube page. My my head tells
Speaker 1: me that Phoenix is gonna dominate, that they're gonna win quickly,
Speaker 1: but I just can't. I said the same thing about
Speaker 1: the Clippers series is the last two years, because they
Speaker 1: had so much more talent than Dallas in Luca, because
Speaker 1: he's one of the greatest basketball players we have in
Speaker 1: the league right now, just found a way through his
Speaker 1: greatness to drag that series out. Attacking matchups. He strangles
Speaker 1: the pace of a game in a way that disrupts
Speaker 1: the real The only other player I've seen in the
Speaker 1: league that does it to this extent is Lebron. But
Speaker 1: there's this dynamic when Luca is really in a flow
Speaker 1: that reminds me of when Lebron was in a flow.
Speaker 1: And Lebron still has this to a certain extent, but
Speaker 1: especially when he was in his prime, where everyone else
Speaker 1: on the floor, especially on the the other team, everybody
Speaker 1: on the other team is out of rhythm and their
Speaker 1: confidence dips because you just can feel that Luca slash.
Speaker 1: Lebron just has like a stranglehold over the game. And
Speaker 1: Luca has just done that too many times in his
Speaker 1: career for me to sit up here and say that
Speaker 1: the Sons are gonna get him out of here quickly.
Speaker 1: They very well might, and if they do, that'll be
Speaker 1: what all the evidence was pointing towards Phoenix is the
Speaker 1: better team. But I I I think that Dallas is
Speaker 1: gonna find a way to drag this out. So I'm
Speaker 1: going Phoenix in a long, a long series. The the
Speaker 1: interesting the opportunity for Dallas to steal this series is early.
Speaker 1: Devin Booker is not a percent yet. You saw that
Speaker 1: a little bit. He made two massive shots down the
Speaker 1: stretch of that Pelicans game, a Wonder will pull up
Speaker 1: to his right like a contested pull up too, and
Speaker 1: then a spot up three in the left corner, and
Speaker 1: those were massive shots, but they were not leaning on
Speaker 1: Devin Booker as like a high intensity shot creator in
Speaker 1: those settings. It kind of looked a lot more like
Speaker 1: James Harden last year in the playoffs in Brooklyn, where
Speaker 1: he's kind of like a decoy consuming defensive attention in
Speaker 1: a spot up role, trying to make plays off the
Speaker 1: bounce with this passing rather than shooting a lot because
Speaker 1: he had that hamstring issue. That's kind of like what
Speaker 1: Devin Booker looked like. Chances are he's not going to
Speaker 1: be close to in the first few games of the series.
Speaker 1: That's your chance when your Dallas, if you can somehow
Speaker 1: get this to a three one, steal a game in
Speaker 1: Phoenix control home court when Devin Booker is limited, and
Speaker 1: somehow that buys you that that buys you margin for
Speaker 1: error to try to steal a game later in the
Speaker 1: series when Devin Booker is closer to and he gets
Speaker 1: cooking and the Suns get back to their full confidence
Speaker 1: on offense, that's gonna be their opportunity Dallas needs to
Speaker 1: get an early lead in the series. Al Right, guys,
Speaker 1: that is all I have for tonight. Don't forget to
Speaker 1: check out my Twitter feed tomorrow morning for some breakdowns
Speaker 1: of these of today's games. We will be back tomorrow
Speaker 1: night after the final buzzer the final game of the
Speaker 1: night for a normal live show like usual as always.
Speaker 1: I sincerely appreciate your guys support and I will see
Speaker 1: you tomorrow. The volume