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Speaker 1: The volume.

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Speaker 2: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.

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Speaker 3: What is up straight firefam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Streight

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Speaker 3: Fire for Friday, December twenty ninth, Ladies and gentlemen, this

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Speaker 3: is the last Straight Fire podcast of twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 3: When we check back in on Tuesday, We're not obviously

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Speaker 3: having a podcast on the first Anybody waking up to

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Speaker 3: listen to a podcast on January one? Okay, it will

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Speaker 3: be twenty twenty four. We will have both college football

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Speaker 3: playoff games completed as such. At the end of this pot,

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Speaker 3: I'll do best bets. We have a great guest today,

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Speaker 3: Will Hill. He does a lot of stuff for Fox,

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Speaker 3: he does stuff for Vson. You're gonna enjoy us debating

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Speaker 3: some of the week seventeen games we don't get into

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Speaker 3: the playoff. I figured I'd save that for the best

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Speaker 3: bet at the end because the games are just so exciting.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I'm very fired up for the playoff. It's

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Speaker 3: going to be a wall to wall football weekend. So

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Speaker 3: when you wake up today you probably didn't realize this,

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Speaker 3: but we have four bowl games. Clemson's playing Oregon State,

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Speaker 3: Notre Dame, and then at night you got the Ohio

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Speaker 3: State University against Missouri. Ohio State only a four and

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Speaker 3: a half point favorite, because who the hell knows who's

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Speaker 3: gonna play obviously not Harrison. They change out their quarterbacks.

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Speaker 3: So we got good college football games, decent, we got

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Speaker 3: bowl games on Friday night. Saturday, we have one awesome

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Speaker 3: NFL game Dallas and Detroit. We've got Georgia Florida State.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if you guys noticed this, but all

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Speaker 3: the defections from Florida State, whether to the NFL or

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Speaker 3: Transfer Portal, they're getting nineteen or twenty points against the Bulldogs.

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Speaker 3: Insane against Georgia. Auburn's playing Penn State. Eh Sunday full

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Speaker 3: slate of NFL massive slate, highlighted obviously by Miami and

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Speaker 3: Baltimore in the one pm window. Usually you know, they

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Speaker 3: bury the bad quarterbacks in the one pm window. I

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Speaker 3: don't know how this wasn't flexed to Sunday or Monday

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Speaker 3: night football, like it just feels very bizarre to me,

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Speaker 3: I guess obviously, because oh that's why, all right now

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Speaker 3: it makes sense. I'm looking at the gambling slate. There

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Speaker 3: isn't a Monday night football game because of the college

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Speaker 3: football playoff Sunday night game is Packers Vikings. I don't

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Speaker 3: know how that wasn't flexed out. Nick Mullens, Jordan Love

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Speaker 3: feel the excitement. Why aren't we getting Dolphins? Ravens. Oh,

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Speaker 3: that's game's gonna be phenomenal. Can't wait for that one.

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Speaker 3: You guys, people who listen to the pod every day

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Speaker 3: know which side I'm on in that one. But we'll

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Speaker 3: get to it later. So Will Hill is the guest

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Speaker 3: at the end. We'll do best bets. Bottom line, this

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Speaker 3: is an incredible weekend if you like to watch football.

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Speaker 3: Veg out due to my back injury. You know, faithful

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Speaker 3: followers know, I got an X ray on my back.

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Speaker 3: Then I got an MRI. I freaked out during the MRI.

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Speaker 3: If you haven't had one good freaking luck, they ask

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Speaker 3: you beforehand, are you clustrophobic? I say I don't think so.

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Speaker 3: You know, as I said, I'm awesome at hide and

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Speaker 3: go seek, or I was when I was a kid.

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Speaker 3: I was never like panic, Oh my gosh, I'm in

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Speaker 3: this cupboard. I'm gonna freak out, you know. And then

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Speaker 3: you get in the MRI machine and you're like, what

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Speaker 3: is happening here? And I just yeah, it just what.

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Speaker 3: It wasn't good. So I haven't done any working out

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Speaker 3: since we won the Big Club Championship the Hoops Men's League.

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Speaker 3: Haven't lifted, basically, haven't done anything. I just started to

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Speaker 3: shoot a basketball lightly this week, not even like really

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Speaker 3: running hard, but the back seems like it's probably eighty

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Speaker 3: five ninety percent. Can't wait to get healthy. I'm hoping.

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Speaker 3: I do like to start the new year January first,

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Speaker 3: you wake up and you go for like a three

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Speaker 3: mile jog start the new year. You know, you kind

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Speaker 3: of come back from the run, you're feeling gray. You

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Speaker 3: eat some healthy fruits, start the new year with a vibe,

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Speaker 3: you know. Anyways, I'm rambling now, and I know you

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Speaker 3: can't wait. You just can't wait to hear me break

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Speaker 3: down that riveting Brown's Jets game. If you heard yesterday's pot,

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Speaker 3: I called for Brown's twenty to nine victory, and then

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Speaker 3: Amari Cooper got ruled out inactive, and everybody was like,

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Speaker 3: oh boy, under under I think it was it thirty

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Speaker 3: four when it closed, Like how either team could have scored?

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Speaker 3: How were the Jets gonna do anything? Which Reversibian. There

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Speaker 3: were twenty seven points scored in the first quarter. Brown's

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Speaker 3: goes seven play seventy five yards touchdown, Jets six place

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Speaker 3: seventy five yards touchdown, Brown seven seventy five touchdown. Folks like,

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Speaker 3: what the hell's going on? Fumble, turnover, on downs, pick six,

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Speaker 3: Like it was a total disaster. I had money on

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Speaker 3: the under thirty five. When it was I think it

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Speaker 3: was thirteen to seven. I bet over forty eight. Luckily

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Speaker 3: that easily cashed. Brown's cover the minus seven minus seven

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Speaker 3: and a half Jets. It was an embarrassing effort all around.

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Speaker 3: I don't really even care to really talk about this,

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Speaker 3: but when you've got a defensive coach and the defense

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Speaker 3: is your pride and joy, and it's been pretty damn

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Speaker 3: good all season, and you give up thirty four and

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Speaker 3: a half, well, I guess technically one pick six whatever,

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Speaker 3: you give up that many points to Joe Flacco, who

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Speaker 3: was raking leaves in early October and now he's leading

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Speaker 3: the Browns to the playoffs. The Cleveland offense had twenty

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Speaker 3: first downs, four hundred and twenty eight yards seven point

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Speaker 3: four yards per play. I mean, the Jets got embarrassed.

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Speaker 3: They got to the red zone five times. The Jets.

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Speaker 3: They were trashed. Twelve penalties, seventy four yards. McKai Beckton

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Speaker 3: might have had three or four of those. Miles Garrett

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Speaker 3: was just terrorizing him. He's gonna haunt Becton's dreams.

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Speaker 1: It was ugly. This is it.

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Speaker 3: I would say the bright spot would be Holy hell

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Speaker 3: do we love Bryce Hole He was the offense. He

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Speaker 3: makes so many people miss. I know you guys have

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Speaker 3: seen the stat who forced miss tackles. He's got to

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Speaker 3: be among the league leaders, if not tops eighty four

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Speaker 3: yards rushing forty two yards, receiving nine catches. I mean

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Speaker 3: it was basically just dump off city everything short. And

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Speaker 3: I don't know for me, it's a good, good loss

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Speaker 3: for the Jets. You know, you know that you want

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Speaker 3: a draft pick if you can get to five, If

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Speaker 3: the Jets can somehow they lose to the Patriots and

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Speaker 3: they finished six and eleven and you get the fifth

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Speaker 3: pick or even six. We know quarterbacks are going one,

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Speaker 3: two and Harrison's probably going three. If you can get

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Speaker 3: to a spot where people want to trade up to

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Speaker 3: get the third quarterback, I think you're in a great,

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Speaker 3: great spot. You got to consider drafting Jayden Daniels from

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Speaker 3: LSU or Bo Nicks or McCarthy and from Michigan. I

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Speaker 3: know you guys will talk about McCarthy later, but the

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Speaker 3: reality is the Jets would probably trade that pick and

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Speaker 3: move down if this guy, Aaron Rodgers is sticking around

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Speaker 3: for another year. You know, I don't even like talking

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Speaker 3: about this asshole. It's just so over it. Anyways, Cleveland

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Speaker 3: Brown's one of the better stories in the NFL this season.

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Speaker 3: I think Stefanski has to be number one or runner

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Speaker 3: up for Coach of the Year. I know a lot

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Speaker 3: of guys have been in the mix, but Stefanski first

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Speaker 3: team in NFL history to start four different quarterbacks from

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Speaker 3: multile games and get to the playoffs. This is a

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Speaker 3: historic feat. Remember this is the team with Nick Chubb

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Speaker 3: Deshaun Watson. It is really incredible that Joe Flacco can

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Speaker 3: come in sling it all around the yard. I mean no,

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Speaker 3: by the way, Elijah Moore left this game with I

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Speaker 3: think a concussion. Amari Cooper did not suit up, and

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Speaker 3: it was essentially the David and Joku show. He just

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Speaker 3: lit up the Jets across the middle. Ford had an

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Speaker 3: awesome catch and run. I'm not really that familiar with

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Speaker 3: Jordan Atkins or sorry Akins, Harrison Bryant got in the

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Speaker 3: mix of the tight end and it's just all around

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Speaker 3: really ugly stuff from the Jets. I don't really care.

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Speaker 3: I'm happy they lost anyway. So without further ado, let's

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Speaker 3: get to this week's guest, Will Hill from the Bear

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Speaker 2: You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows

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Speaker 2: everything when it comes to sports.

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Speaker 3: I know what sports fans want, but.

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Speaker 2: For everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.

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Speaker 3: Let's just say I know a guy who knows a

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Speaker 3: guy who knows another guy. All right, let's welcome into

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Speaker 3: straight fire a new guest. Have not had him on before,

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Speaker 3: but you guys know he's in the Fox family.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: He's on the Bear Bets podcast with Chris Filika. You've

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Speaker 3: probably heard him on vsin he's got his own podcast,

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Speaker 3: Will Hill, Will How you doing, man?

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Speaker 1: Jmack? What's going on? Man? It's an honor to be here.

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Speaker 1: Fun time of the year. We got football on too much,

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Speaker 1: all day, all night. Man. If you just if you

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Speaker 1: want to bet all these games, you can get yourself

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Speaker 1: into some trouble because you wake up, there's a game on,

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Speaker 1: You go to bed, there's a game on. But it's

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Speaker 1: a it's a fun time of the year. It's crazy.

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Speaker 2: Man.

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Speaker 1: We sit here all spring and summer waiting for football

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Speaker 1: to come back, and you look up and it's like, wow,

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Speaker 1: we're week seventeens. These teams are, you know, fighting for

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Speaker 1: playoff spots only a couple weeks left. It comes and

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Speaker 1: it goes very quick. With the NFL season.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's been an up and down season for me.

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Speaker 3: Not great in the contest, but on the picks for

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Speaker 3: Fox Sports, I'm on fire. I got to ask before

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Speaker 3: we get the picks. Will Hill the name, like, I

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Speaker 3: feel like there's been at least two or three athletes

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Speaker 3: with that name. It's kind of common. So do you

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Speaker 3: what do you go by as a nickname? Or is

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Speaker 3: it like, you know, my name is William called me

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Speaker 3: William or Wilson or like, what do you prefer?

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Speaker 1: My full name is William, and I just I go

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Speaker 1: by Will. So Yeah, there was the will Hill for

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Speaker 1: the Giants and for University of Florida, the football player,

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Speaker 1: that's right, Yeah he was, and he was a good player.

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Speaker 1: He just I can't you know, I'm self in some

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Speaker 1: trouble with some like for performance and I don't know

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Speaker 1: it was performance, some sort of substance things where he

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Speaker 1: was bouncing around with suspension. But he was a good player.

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Speaker 1: I remember there was a Monday night football game, I

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Speaker 1: think against the rap It was a Ravens Brown game.

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Speaker 1: It might have been on the Ravens. We had like

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Speaker 1: a fumble a block field goal, fumble return for a

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Speaker 1: touchdown at the buzzer. But yeah, he was. He was

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Speaker 1: a good player. And of course there's the will Hill

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Speaker 1: sports book, which yes, William Hill did. Sometimes people come

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Speaker 1: to meeting with their complaints about that sports book. This

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Speaker 1: bet got rejected. This did they have? I have nothing

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Speaker 1: to do with that, Yeah, but I'm sorry to hear that.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's dive into week seventeen. Let's start with

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Speaker 3: the Saturday game. It's a good one. Detroit at Dallas.

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Speaker 3: You know the two minute handicap. Everybody pumps up. Well,

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Speaker 3: Dallas is a juggernaut at home. Detroit just won the division.

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Speaker 3: They'll pull back. The one thing people seem to be

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Speaker 3: missing or not even wanting to discuss, is this running

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Speaker 3: back situation for Detroit is phenomenal. Between Montgomery and Gibbs,

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Speaker 3: they're eating people alive. They control the ball, keep their

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Speaker 3: bad defense off the field, and guess who can't really

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Speaker 3: stop the run?

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Speaker 1: Lately?

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Speaker 3: Dallas without Handkins. So I don't know. I look at

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Speaker 3: this number. I initially wanted Dallas, then it's like five

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Speaker 3: and a half. I don't know. I definitely don't want

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Speaker 3: to get in front of a Dallas train, But of

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Speaker 3: late we've seen them at home give up what thirty

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Speaker 3: four to the Seahawks in a game they should have

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Speaker 3: want or thirty six, whatever the number was. I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I think I like Dallas in this, but I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure about the contest. How about you.

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Speaker 1: I'm afraid to step in front of Dallas. Too off,

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Speaker 1: too straight losses. They're in their natural habitat here, they're

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Speaker 1: home where they are a bully of juggernaut. Call them

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Speaker 1: whatever you want, I mean, they're good for their thirty

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Speaker 1: plus points at home against pretty much anyone, and I

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Speaker 1: don't know that Detroit has the secondary, the pass defense

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Speaker 1: to hold up here. So to me, Dallas is going

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Speaker 1: to get their thirty four to thirty seven points. I actually,

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Speaker 1: I know it's a high total. I believe it's the

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Speaker 1: highest total of the year. I actually I still like

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Speaker 1: the over. To me, this is like a thirty four

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Speaker 1: to twenty four type of game. I think Dallas is

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Speaker 1: going to score a lot of points, and I think

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Speaker 1: Detroit's gonna get their points too, especially if you put

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Speaker 1: them in a scenario where Dallas gets in front, they

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Speaker 1: jump on and they have a big lead and Detroit's

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Speaker 1: just thrown from behind. Detroit's gonna get their points too.

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Speaker 1: So to me, you know, at thirty four to twenty seven,

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Speaker 1: thirty one to twenty four type of game, you worry

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Speaker 1: about laying this number with Dallas because if you're up

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Speaker 1: ten late, you just you worry about that back door

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Speaker 1: touchdown to cut it from you know, thirty four to

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Speaker 1: twenty four to thirty four to thirty one something like that.

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Speaker 1: So I like the over. I know it's a high total,

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Speaker 1: but this should be a fun game to watch. We deserve.

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Speaker 1: We've watched enough bad offenses, crappy quarterbacks. We deserve a

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Speaker 1: little basketball on grass for both teams. Don't go back

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Speaker 1: and forth. So would lean towards Dallas. I know it's

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Speaker 1: in that range where people might want to tease Dallas.

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Speaker 1: I would think they win this game. Like you said,

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Speaker 1: Detroit just coming off a division win, which I mean

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Speaker 1: that means a lot to them. They still have an

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Speaker 1: outside really the outside shot in a one seed. But

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Speaker 1: to me, it's an over game.

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Speaker 3: What about the inside matchup of Dan Quinn, who we

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Speaker 3: know has interviewed the last two years for head coaching

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Speaker 3: job once one badly, and he's going up against Ben Johnson,

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Speaker 3: who is I think the de facto favorite to be

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Speaker 3: the next head coach somewhere next season. I thought I

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Speaker 3: saw a fifteen million thrown around, which feels excessive any

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Speaker 3: edge either way for either of these guys.

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Speaker 1: No, you bring up a good point, though both these

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Speaker 1: guys could be head coaches once their respective season ends.

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Speaker 1: I hadn't really thought about the game in that aspect

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Speaker 1: of it. I feel like the Blues come off the

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Speaker 1: rows a little bit. I and a couple buddies that

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Speaker 1: are Lions fans like man, he hasn't been as good

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Speaker 1: this year. I don't know. They still had a pretty

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Speaker 1: good year. It's interesting if Campbell, you know, he's been

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Speaker 1: the favorite for Coach of the Year all year, which

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Speaker 1: I think is a little surprising. They were supposed to

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Speaker 1: be good. They were minus money to win this division.

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Speaker 1: This isn't usually the Coach of the Year goes to

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Speaker 1: like the Brian Dabele guy, the guy who brings his

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Speaker 1: team out of nowhere, does more with last So maybe

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Speaker 1: he'll win it by default. With Demiko Ryans and Stiking

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Speaker 1: kind of drop it out here. I don't know that

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Speaker 1: they'll give it to Stefanski twice in what now four years.

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Speaker 1: Oh maybe maybe Campbell wins it. I don't know, but

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Speaker 1: that's certainly an interesting cat and mouse game with the

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Speaker 1: two coordinators.

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Speaker 3: I forgot Stefansky got it because I was gonna say, oh,

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Speaker 3: Stefanski for sure, COVID year, that's right. Well, Also, Stiking

304
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Speaker 3: should be in the mix. What's his face in Houston

305
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Speaker 3: has fallen off a little bit? And uh, Demiko Ryans, yeah,

306
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Speaker 3: I don't I don't know if he's in the mix

307
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Speaker 3: with them. Missing the playoffs, but yeah, I guess so

308
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Speaker 3: it's a dangerous game. The Dallas Miami another I'm sorry,

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Speaker 3: Dallas and Detroit is dangerous. Miami Baltimore is the highlight

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Speaker 3: of Sunday and this one's weird. I'm looking as we

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Speaker 3: record this. You know, it was at four early in

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Speaker 3: the week, and then three and a half, and now

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Speaker 3: it's down to three and I'm looking at the Dolphins

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Speaker 3: injury report. Will you know this Jalen Wattle situation feels

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Speaker 3: like a big wood. I don't know. I think I'm

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Speaker 3: on the Dolphins in the contest, but for sure I've

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Speaker 3: already bet them. I like them.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 3: We've seen Baltimore kind of toggle between really impressive, big

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Speaker 3: spotlight impressive, awesome game, and then the next week they're

321
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Speaker 3: just not as dominant, struggling to cover. Where are you

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Speaker 3: on Dolphins?

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Speaker 1: And Ravens agree with everything he said. Wattle is such

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Speaker 1: an underrated player. The problem is he's always banged up.

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Speaker 1: If you haven't been fantasy, you know, man, every time

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Speaker 1: you get those little alerts up, yeah, wattles to the tent,

327
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Speaker 1: wattles to the locker room. I mean, he's really good,

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Speaker 1: and it's you know, we know how great Hill is.

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Speaker 1: Hill is a cheat code, but he's extra. It's like

330
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Speaker 1: having in baseball two power hitters and you can't pitch

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Speaker 1: around either one. And it's like Manny Ramirez an Ortiz.

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Speaker 1: You can't pitch, you can't essentially walk Manny because Ortiz

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Speaker 1: is there. It's the same thing when you have Wattle

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Speaker 1: and Hill. You can't double Hill as much now without Hill,

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Speaker 1: and I don't or without Wattle, and I don't think

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Speaker 1: Wattle's gonna play. I'm not one hundred percent positive, but

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Speaker 1: sounds like with a high ankle that would be tough.

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Speaker 1: You can sort of bracket Hill a little bit more.

339
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Speaker 1: And there's not a lot else for Miami here, so

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Speaker 1: i'd worry about that. The thing with two, there's still

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Speaker 1: a couple of things where you have concerns, and that

342
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Speaker 1: is playing out soors in the cold, and this weather's

343
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Speaker 1: not two outrageous, going to be in the forties in pressure,

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Speaker 1: and I do think Baltimore is gonna pressure them. That

345
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Speaker 1: would concern me. I think Baltimore wins the game. I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't lay the three here if you think Baltimore is

347
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Speaker 1: gonna win, though there's plus two to eighty out there

348
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Speaker 1: on the Bills to win the division. Is if the

349
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Speaker 1: Bills just beat the Patriots, which I assume they will,

350
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Speaker 1: which is always dangerous in the NFL, especially with the Bills.

351
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Speaker 1: But if you think the Bills are gonna beat the Patriots,

352
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Speaker 1: and you do like Baltimore in this game, that sets

353
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Speaker 1: up an AFC title gate next week where you'd love

354
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Speaker 1: to be sitting there with plus two eighty in your

355
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Speaker 1: pocket with Miami Buffalo. Where that game's gonna be. I

356
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Speaker 1: don't know, Miami minus a point, couple points, it won't

357
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Speaker 1: be a field goal. So yeah, maybe a Bills plus

358
00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:47,080
Speaker 1: two to seventy five plus two eight's worth the stab.

359
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Speaker 3: What about the fact that the Niners last week they

360
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,320
Speaker 3: were ready for the Shanahan system The Ravens confused the

361
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Speaker 3: hell out of them. Is it a bigger edge that

362
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Speaker 3: they will have now seen the Shanahan system two weeks

363
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Speaker 3: in a row with McDaniel running the same stuff, or

364
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Speaker 3: or is it an edge for the offense? Well, this

365
00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,600
Speaker 3: did not work. We know they're ready for that. We'll

366
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Speaker 3: go with this. Like I just I wonder the game

367
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Speaker 3: planning and the matchup. Is there an edge for McDaniel

368
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Speaker 3: or McDonald the defensive coordinator.

369
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Speaker 1: I'm laughing because I feel like you're reading my mind.

370
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:18,320
Speaker 1: I'm trying. I've been going back and forth with that

371
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Speaker 1: all week. It's such a fascinating, little nuanced this and

372
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Speaker 1: what makes these games so fascinating to study to bet.

373
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Speaker 1: I don't have a great answer for you in terms

374
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Speaker 1: of who better. Let me throw it back, dude, you

375
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Speaker 1: have an opinion in terms of like who it favors.

376
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Speaker 1: It's certainly something to consider when you're betting these games,

377
00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:37,680
Speaker 1: because you know it's something I study and look, Baltimore's

378
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:39,520
Speaker 1: defensive corner I thought did a hell of a job

379
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Speaker 1: against the forty nine ers, So that's an interesting chess match.

380
00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:44,359
Speaker 1: I don't think a lot of people are thinking about.

381
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I just I'm not gonna bash in a hand.

382
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Speaker 3: I thought they had an amazing game plan and they

383
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Speaker 3: ran the ball well, and I just wonder if that

384
00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:55,400
Speaker 3: first interception kind of snowballed on perty some of two

385
00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:57,960
Speaker 3: of them were unlucky. But I mean, when you're running

386
00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,359
Speaker 3: as well as you did with McCaffrey, why did you

387
00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:03,679
Speaker 3: go away from it so quickly? And again I'm not like, hey,

388
00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 3: you got to run and establish a run and all

389
00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:07,840
Speaker 3: that nonsense. It just felt like their run game work.

390
00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:10,199
Speaker 3: And I mean that'll translate from Miami as long as

391
00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:12,880
Speaker 3: eight Chan plays. I'm looking at the report. He didn't

392
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:16,800
Speaker 3: practice on Yeah, he did not practice on Wednesday with

393
00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:19,879
Speaker 3: the toe. Mostart is banged up, but who isn't at

394
00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:23,520
Speaker 3: this point he didn't practice Wednesday either. Between those two,

395
00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:25,560
Speaker 3: if they're healthy, goes. I think Miami can move the

396
00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:27,920
Speaker 3: ball on the ground. Let's be real. The Ravens defense

397
00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:31,920
Speaker 3: has been great at times, like when you destroy Seattle

398
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:35,240
Speaker 3: and Detroit earlier in the season, amazing, awesome, But there's

399
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:36,879
Speaker 3: been times where the Rams move the ball up and

400
00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:38,920
Speaker 3: down the field like they couldn't stop Kyrien Williams.

401
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,760
Speaker 1: Right, and let me ask you, do you think this

402
00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:44,480
Speaker 1: Miami resurgent on defense is real? Or is this more

403
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,159
Speaker 1: a product of the schedule, because you'd say, all right,

404
00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:50,000
Speaker 1: it's Fangio. His scheme is finally sunk in here. They're

405
00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,720
Speaker 1: getting it. You got Ramsey back, that's why they're playing

406
00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:54,800
Speaker 1: so well on defense. And they're playing really well on defense,

407
00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:58,080
Speaker 1: or is it Hey, they're playing some lesser offenses. Cowboys

408
00:18:58,119 --> 00:18:59,680
Speaker 1: last week aside, and the Cowboys aren't the same on

409
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Speaker 1: the road. You know, how do you break down? Because

410
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 1: that's a fastinating part of this too is you know,

411
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,280
Speaker 1: what do you make of his Dolphins resurgence on defense?

412
00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:10,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm sure you noticed this too, but Lamar extended

413
00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:12,800
Speaker 3: plays against the Niners, just kept it alive, kept it alive,

414
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,800
Speaker 3: scrambling and then boom would hit the pass a. I

415
00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 3: think Miami has better corners with Howard and Ramsey and

416
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:24,159
Speaker 3: b I actually think Javon Holland is probably a better

417
00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,440
Speaker 3: you know, quote unquote spy than the Niners linebackers were.

418
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:29,679
Speaker 3: I thought the Niners linebackers was just a step slow,

419
00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,080
Speaker 3: a step off, and Holland I think it really good

420
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,639
Speaker 3: player out of Oregon. I like his game. If you

421
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:38,600
Speaker 3: have him kind of spying Jackson and the defensive ends

422
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,960
Speaker 3: cannot you know, allow him to escape the pocket. I

423
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:44,760
Speaker 3: think Miami probably saw some stuff last week and will

424
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,560
Speaker 3: make adjustments, and I think they're probably in better shape

425
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:49,360
Speaker 3: here than most people realize. I don't know if they'll win,

426
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 3: but I'm definitely on them.

427
00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:53,440
Speaker 1: How about the idea that, hey, I think Miami has

428
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,160
Speaker 1: a chance to win here, would you dip your toe

429
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 1: into two at ten to one? To win MVP. We've

430
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,040
Speaker 1: seen the favorite change hands a bunch of times. Now,

431
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,119
Speaker 1: if you're betting on the favorite, it just feels like

432
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:05,240
Speaker 1: you're doing it wrong. Where you got to you gotta

433
00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:07,639
Speaker 1: look down the board And I'm somebody. I had Purty.

434
00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:10,000
Speaker 1: I do have Purty. I have already twenty two to

435
00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:12,440
Speaker 1: one to win it. And man, I was not count

436
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:13,879
Speaker 1: my money because I know how these things work. But

437
00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 1: if I could have just beaten Baltimore, I felt like

438
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 1: I was in really good shape. So I don't know,

439
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,280
Speaker 1: I'm sort of out. I'm frustrated with it. That was

440
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 1: That was a painful way for it to go down.

441
00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 1: That was a just a disaster on Monday. I don't know.

442
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,119
Speaker 1: Do you think two has a chance to steal it?

443
00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:29,240
Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah, Well so let's step back for a second. Okay,

444
00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:33,720
Speaker 3: let's take a deep breath. We get it. Purty was terrible. However,

445
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:37,239
Speaker 3: the folks voting on this are the media members, and

446
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,240
Speaker 3: I don't know exactly when the votes are due, and

447
00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:43,919
Speaker 3: the pretty four interception clunker was awful. If you step

448
00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 3: back and all of a sudden you're presented with the stats, right,

449
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:51,960
Speaker 3: Purty still top three and leading in almost every passing category.

450
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 3: It's weird quarterback rating. Br epa success right, like he's

451
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,159
Speaker 3: up there on all of them and Lamar's not, and

452
00:20:58,200 --> 00:21:00,679
Speaker 3: I Tua is kind of in the mix. But I

453
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:04,240
Speaker 3: don't know. I wonder if the media like it depends

454
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:07,199
Speaker 3: like how many guys are under forty voting versus over sixty.

455
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:08,680
Speaker 3: You know, the over sixty guys don't give a shit

456
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 3: about the stats. They advanced stats. So I don't know,

457
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:13,280
Speaker 3: will do you think people are like, you know what,

458
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna hold one awful game against Perty. Lamar's

459
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 3: had what four games under sixty percent passing like he pretty.

460
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:22,040
Speaker 1: Is the profile of an MVP. I mean, you just

461
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,919
Speaker 1: go buy the stats. It's it's totally recncy biased that

462
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:26,679
Speaker 1: that he's not. Look I love him as a player.

463
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 1: I thought it was ridiculous some of these teams that

464
00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:30,920
Speaker 1: need a quarterback that weren't interested in him. I think

465
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:32,919
Speaker 1: he's tremendous and he's probably gonna be holding up his

466
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 1: second MVP and what five years now, so he doesn't

467
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:37,159
Speaker 1: need me to tell him how good he is. That

468
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 1: being said, this doesn't statistically profiles an MVP. He's had.

469
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 1: He doesn't have the passing numbers, the completions, and look again,

470
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 1: I love him as a player, and there's some rushing

471
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:48,719
Speaker 1: stats there that obviously prop him up. But I don't know.

472
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 1: But again I don't know. Let me just add, is

473
00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 1: there a bet to be made right now where all right,

474
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:54,360
Speaker 1: Allen can come out of nowhere when his last two

475
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 1: games steal a division, can two to steal it? Or

476
00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:58,440
Speaker 1: we just are we bagging our head against the brick

477
00:21:58,480 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 1: wall here.

478
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's probably more of the latter, but

479
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,159
Speaker 3: Alan could steal it. I have Purty from earlier. I

480
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 3: think twenty to one, and I have Lamar I think

481
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 3: at like six to one, which isn't great. But other

482
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,120
Speaker 3: than that, I don't have any And you know, there's

483
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 3: probably a better edge to be had in one of

484
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,560
Speaker 3: these games this weekend than than the MVP trying to

485
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 3: get in the head of what is it fifty voters sixty,

486
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:16,959
Speaker 3: I don't know.

487
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 1: They trump the MVP numbers a lot this year. I

488
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,639
Speaker 1: remember going into the season like doing shows before the season,

489
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 1: doing content they really you know what happened. Mahomes won

490
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 1: this award in twenty eighteen. He was like eighty to one,

491
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:29,719
Speaker 1: and then Lamar won at the next year his first year,

492
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 1: starting at like seventy five to one, and the books

493
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:34,680
Speaker 1: are like, no, mos, we're not doing this anymore. We're

494
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 1: not giving you these fat prices on quarterbacks. We're just

495
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:38,880
Speaker 1: gonna shrink all the numbers. We know people are probably

496
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:41,120
Speaker 1: gonna bet anyway. I don't know if you felt the same,

497
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,240
Speaker 1: but you go into the season all these quarterbacks like

498
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 1: eight to one, twelve to one, fifteen to one, and

499
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 1: it's just it's hard to bet this going in because

500
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,680
Speaker 1: there's too many good quarterbacks. When you're getting eight to one, Look,

501
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 1: if you're catching e to one, you feel great. It's

502
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 1: just they've made it very hard to bet with these.

503
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, well to piggyback off that, I've seen a lot

504
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 3: more of, you know shit, Like if you want a number,

505
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,639
Speaker 3: it's almost everything is like one nineteen minus one, twenty

506
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 3: used to be like minus one ten everywhere, and it

507
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,120
Speaker 3: feels like that's gone. Now you want a crappy number,

508
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 3: yeah you minus one oh three instead of the money.

509
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 3: I just I don't know, I'm getting a little dissuaded.

510
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:17,879
Speaker 3: Now you're way more in it, right, Yeah, you're in Vegas, right, No,

511
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,159
Speaker 3: I'm in Connecticut, Connecticut. Oh yeah, okay, I thought you

512
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 3: were in because I know some of the guys in

513
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,680
Speaker 3: Vegas are so disillusioned and they're like, listen, you've got

514
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:28,400
Speaker 3: to go to the casino. This betting online stuff is crap. Well,

515
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:30,640
Speaker 3: I don't know. Spin this forward five years when more

516
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 3: states are in the mix are then is everything going

517
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 3: to be juiced even worse?

518
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 1: That's such a loaded question. I mean, there's so many

519
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 1: people that just want action that aren't priced sensitive. Oh

520
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 1: it's a difference one ten one. I just want to

521
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 1: get my bed in and they're not. No, not, Yeah,

522
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 1: it's I don't know the answer. It's really it's a

523
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 1: shame because I feel like these books would get more action,

524
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 1: make more money if you just keep give people a

525
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:55,880
Speaker 1: fair price. They're not going to go down the street

526
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 1: and bet it somewhere else. You're going to get their

527
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:00,680
Speaker 1: handle and most people are going to lose the long haul.

528
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't know what direction that's going. It's definitely,

529
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,399
Speaker 1: I mean, the whole to these is is definitely egregious.

530
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 3: In some cases, let's go to giants Rams. I gotta

531
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 3: be honest, I did not understand this, so opened Rams

532
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 3: and I think five and a half and I was like, oh,

533
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 3: that's a bet, took it, And then all of a

534
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 3: sudden yesterday Wednesday, I see minus four, minus four and

535
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 3: a half. I'm like, who's betting the Giants? What's going on?

536
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 3: And now I'm looking as we record this, I'm seeing

537
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,160
Speaker 3: Rams at six at bet Chris, do you have any

538
00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 3: read on this game? Or what the hell's up with

539
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 3: the line movement? Because Tyrod Taylor's back in, but I

540
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:34,679
Speaker 3: haven't seen anyone else that would significantly move it. I

541
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 3: know people will say five is a dead number, but

542
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,479
Speaker 3: I've given the two point conversions and the missus like,

543
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,120
Speaker 3: four to me is a big one. Now I would

544
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:45,160
Speaker 3: say that's the third most the third most popular important number.

545
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 3: What am I missing here?

546
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 1: I think people maybe just being contrary and like, all right,

547
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:52,119
Speaker 1: this is you. Hear a lot of people now are

548
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 1: the Rams are asleep? Or the Rams are the team

549
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 1: in the NFC that nobody wants to play? And people

550
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 1: maybe just fading that and saying, all right, you get

551
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 1: the Giants with an upgraded quarter Taylor's at least a

552
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:04,120
Speaker 1: serviceable quarterback. He's gonna take care of the ball. He's

553
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 1: in an NFL quarterback. He's one of these guys like

554
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 1: Perset where he's not If he's your starter, you're in trouble.

555
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 1: But if he's your backup, you're in great shape. So

556
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,679
Speaker 1: he'll move the ball, he'll be okay, table, He's obviously

557
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:14,400
Speaker 1: a good coach. I just I don't know if people

558
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 1: trust the Rams now in a situation where they go

559
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 1: on the road outdoors. Again, the weather's not terrible on

560
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 1: the East Coast, but not great weather for for an

561
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 1: LA team, and now you're gonna expect him to win

562
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 1: by a touchdown plus. I guess that's the thinking. But

563
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 1: it's not a game I've gotten involved in.

564
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 3: It's weird, and I know I've just liked the third

565
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 3: one of these that brought up. But this whole like

566
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 3: offense and what they run versus defensive coordinators again, wink Martindale.

567
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 3: We know what this guy is. He blitzes all the

568
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,960
Speaker 3: freaking time. Good luck blitzing Stafford. Good luck you're gonna

569
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 3: You're gonna leave Puka and Cooper in man coverage against

570
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:48,719
Speaker 3: these these cornerbacks who I don't even think are good.

571
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 3: You know, Banks, I guess has bad his moments, but

572
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:53,679
Speaker 3: like I just it doesn't something doesn't add up for me.

573
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 3: And you know, I gotta give Karegie Morris credit. I

574
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:58,400
Speaker 3: was way wrong on the Rams. I thought this team

575
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 3: was totally rebuilding. You know, you know Aaron Donald would

576
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 3: be in trade discussions of the deadline selling. I mean,

577
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,679
Speaker 3: they're they're probably going to the playoffs. I just you know,

578
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 3: I know ty Rod Taylor doesn't make mistakes, and he

579
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 3: killed me last week. Got like an idiot. I was

580
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 3: on the Eagles, and it's just I don't think this

581
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 3: Giant team's any good at anything.

582
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 1: I don't know what you're doing messing around with this podcast.

583
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 1: You should get into coaching. You're good with this exercise

584
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 1: of the coordinator. I mean, you're wasting your time here.

585
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 3: Well I don't know. We'll see what happens, but I

586
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:28,159
Speaker 3: don't know. Are you a wink? Martindale guy like I

587
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:31,160
Speaker 3: liked him last year right upgrade over whoever the hell

588
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 3: they had the gut? The guy he had the humongous playbook,

589
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 3: playbook that he would hold up. Oh Joe Judge was it.

590
00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:42,199
Speaker 1: Yea, yeah, there was Judge before that, there was Macado.

591
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 3: Macadoo and Judge. Yeah, those guys are terrible. Yeah, And

592
00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,680
Speaker 3: I don't know. I just I like Martindale last year,

593
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:48,679
Speaker 3: but I feel like he's a one trick pony. If

594
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,920
Speaker 3: you don't have an off an off speed pitch. Stafford

595
00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 3: is just too smart. McVeigh, I don't know. I kind

596
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:55,399
Speaker 3: of like them. There you but you're you're not on

597
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:58,199
Speaker 3: this game? Is there another game Sunday you kind of

598
00:26:58,320 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 3: like or or gravitate toward.

599
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 1: I like Atlanta getting three against the Bears. I haven't

600
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:06,360
Speaker 1: understood this loyalty to Ritter all season. It's been one

601
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: of the more perplexing things. I know, Heineke's not like

602
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes or anything, but he's at least serviceable. And

603
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:14,439
Speaker 1: I like the rest of the team. I like, you know,

604
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: he got good weapons. They got good skilled players that

605
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 1: are kind of rotting on. That roster was Bjohn Robinson

606
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,120
Speaker 1: and Pitts in London. That's not a bad roster. They're

607
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 1: good on defense, they're good against the run. The Bears

608
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,159
Speaker 1: have played well here, but now you're putting a Bears,

609
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 1: the Bears in the position where they're the favorite. Every

610
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 1: Atlanta game is close. They play a lot of weird

611
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 1: games because they're so old, scoring It's almost like a

612
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 1: service academy, where you know there's one point games, two

613
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 1: point games. Three's a lot in a game like this.

614
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 1: I could see this being a nineteen sixteen, nineteen seventeen

615
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,199
Speaker 1: type of game. I think Heinik's a decent I think

616
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,160
Speaker 1: he's an upgrade over Ridder, clearly. I think they should

617
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,439
Speaker 1: have gone to him a lot sooner. I like Atlanta

618
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 1: and getting the three.

619
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's an interesting one. So I haven't looked at

620
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 3: the weather. I don't know, is there anything that jumps

621
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:56,399
Speaker 3: out there or no?

622
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:59,399
Speaker 1: Mild, it's mild across the board. I remember remember this

623
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 1: time the last it was like that Christmas Eve slate.

624
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 1: We so had to be week sixteen or seventeen where

625
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 1: we got just frigid temperatures. Everything was like below zero.

626
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 1: We haven't had the snowstorms. We haven't had a ton

627
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,359
Speaker 1: of weather in these games. I think you just look around,

628
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 1: you know, the East, the Midwest. A lot of these

629
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 1: games are in the forties, mid forties, high thirties. Nothing

630
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 1: that's just gonna completely sway you one way or another.

631
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 3: Taylor Heineke against a Bears defense, it's kind of resurgent.

632
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 3: They've looked super good. I know a lot of sharp

633
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 3: buddies of mine, like Arizona last week. I'm like, god,

634
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 3: they scared me off it in the contest. But I

635
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 3: had bet Bears and I watched that game, and I'm like,

636
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 3: the Bears are pretty damn good. I mean it Fields

637
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 3: doesn't throw a dumb ass interception in the red zone.

638
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 3: You know they win that by twenty one points or whatever.

639
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 3: The Falcons defense, do you have you seen anything you liked?

640
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 3: I mean, is tough, so tough to judge them, and

641
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:53,960
Speaker 3: in this entire game. Falcons have been befuddling for me

642
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 3: all season. I read somewhere that every Falcons game this

643
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 3: season has had a spread of three and a half leus,

644
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 3: which is.

645
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 1: Just yeah, it goes right, and it's funny. All the

646
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 1: spreads are close and all the games with very few exceptions.

647
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 1: I think last one was one of them. It always

648
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: comes down to the end with the number, and if

649
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 1: you got the right number, you weigh sometimes you know

650
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 1: there's a two point conversion that has to go a

651
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 1: certain way. They're low spreads and they're always right around

652
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 1: their number.

653
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 3: Let's go to this Tampa Bay Saints game, and again,

654
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 3: I know nobody has any strong impressions. This division stinks.

655
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 3: That being said, it was three for Tampa and then

656
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 3: it goes off to two and a half. Now we've

657
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 3: mentioned this many times this season will so when I

658
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 3: see a two and a half, I take that as

659
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 3: the sharp big money guys you one hundred thousand dollars betters.

660
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 3: They don't like the favorite, and the play is probably

661
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 3: the dog at three and a half. The big money

662
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 3: guys really like the favorite, and then you probably okay

663
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 3: with it. Do you see it that way or do

664
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 3: you disagree? Because it's tough for me to get the

665
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 3: Saints here. It's just really tough.

666
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's funny. I've heard sports book directors to talk

667
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 1: about that. Guys that work on the other side of

668
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 1: the counter say, hey, it's counterintuitive when people hate three

669
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 1: and a half. People don't like taking two and a

670
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 1: half because of those you're on the wrong side of

671
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 1: the key number. But for that reason that sometimes, even

672
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 1: though it's kind of intuitive, that's probably the way to go.

673
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 1: I would lean towards the dog here. You missed the three.

674
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 1: Maybe you throw the Saints and the teaser. All these

675
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 1: NFC South games are close, pretty low scoring I think

676
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 1: these teams are fairly equal. Tampa's been a little fortunate here.

677
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 1: I know it's a great story. Baker's is a good story.

678
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 1: I don't know if he can win Comeback Player of

679
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 1: the Year. I know he's eight to one Comeback Player

680
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 1: of the Year. That's a fascinating race with him flack

681
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 1: O Hamlin just talking to voters and reading voters and

682
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 1: what they value. There's no regal guideline, so who knows

683
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,480
Speaker 1: who's gonna win that award. But I throw the Saints

684
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 1: and the teaser. To me, it's a toss up game.

685
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 1: It is interesting that Islam keeps coming down to see

686
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 1: some twos, some really cheap money lines on the bucks. Again,

687
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 1: I don't love this car Allen pairing, so I'm not

688
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 1: dying to bet this team. But it should be a

689
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 1: close game. You throw him in a teaser with you know,

690
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,560
Speaker 1: the Packers up to seven and a half, the Chiefs

691
00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 1: down to one. There's some decent teaser options out there.

692
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:03,479
Speaker 3: That we can wrap up with these two. So Pittsburgh Seattle,

693
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 3: I don't know who's betting Mason Rudolph on the road

694
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 3: in Seattle. You know he had a couple of big

695
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 3: plays to Pickens and it was a great spot. Facing

696
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 3: Browning for the second time. I don't know. We'll talk

697
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 3: me off of Seattle here at home.

698
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 1: I think people are just saying I don't want to

699
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 1: lay it. If it's three and a half. People say, hey,

700
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:20,760
Speaker 1: I don't want to lay three and a half with

701
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 1: this this Seahawks team. They're too sporadic, they're too mid

702
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 1: Tomlin tends to play close games. He's good as a dog.

703
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 1: I could see Seattle winning this game by a field

704
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:33,880
Speaker 1: goal again. Am I dying? Am I cutting in line

705
00:31:33,920 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 1: to go up and bet this Mason Rudolf Rudolph team?

706
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 3: I am not.

707
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 1: I could see this being I don't know a twenty

708
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:41,600
Speaker 1: three twenty type of game. So if I'm getting the

709
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 1: three and a half, I'd begrudgingly take the points. But nothing.

710
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 1: I'm dying to bed here. Did you lay it?

711
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 3: I did? But you know I'm looking at the contest

712
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 3: even though I will not be cashing in the circle again.

713
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 3: I think that's seven straight years of hard Man two times.

714
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 3: I was really close late in the season. By the way,

715
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 3: Minka Fitzpatrick looks like he's probably not gonna go again.

716
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 3: We'll see about naj Harris. I don't know. This is

717
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 3: a silly thing, but I mean it's it occasionally works.

718
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 3: So you take the teams and how they did last week,

719
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 3: did not cover versus did, and you put that as

720
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 3: a data point, and you look at the team that

721
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 3: didn't cover last week. Late in the season, you see

722
00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 3: a little more overreactions with the lines, and usually these

723
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 3: games are the ones where the lines are screwt. I

724
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 3: can't even say the right word skewed a little bit right,

725
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 3: I'm just telling you. This is a Pittsburgh team. Weren't

726
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 3: they an underdog briefly versus the Bengals last week at home?

727
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, they were a size. They were a good three

728
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:40,479
Speaker 1: point underdog, and that line open two and went all

729
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 1: the way up to three. I might might even been

730
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 1: a three and a half pop up. And obviously that

731
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:48,719
Speaker 1: movement wasn't correct, But yeah, you make a good point.

732
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: Could I interest you if you think this while you

733
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 1: are on the other side, But if you thought the

734
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 1: Steelers were gonna win this week? Steelers plus four eighty

735
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 1: or so, I think Chris Fleika the Bear brought this

736
00:32:57,480 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 1: up on the podcast today. Could you the Steelers plus

737
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 1: four eighty make the playoffs, figuring they play the Ravens

738
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:06,640
Speaker 1: in Baltimore Week eighteen. But if Baltimore beats Miami, Baltimore

739
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 1: wraps up everything the division, the one seed, you might

740
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 1: see their backups in. Look, the Baltimore backups actually have

741
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 1: that bad. He's not that bad. But if you could

742
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 1: win this week and you get Baltimore where they don't

743
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 1: care next week and the hardball seems to care about

744
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 1: every game, I don't know, just throwing it out there as.

745
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,240
Speaker 3: Wow so and Pittsburgh Steakson. I don't want to see

746
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 3: means in Rudolph in the postseed I definitely.

747
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 1: Want is the last spot. Because let's assume Browns and

748
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 1: Bills get two of the three wildguards. Is strouded the

749
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 1: most exciting third guy probably is.

750
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 3: But I don't know. I didn't even see. I don't

751
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 3: even know if he's practiced today. Some of these reports, man,

752
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 3: are not good about the concussion, right, I would have

753
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 3: liked to have seen Stroud. By the way, have you

754
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 3: have you bet that game at all? The Houston Tennessee.

755
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 1: No, if I bet anything, it would be the over

756
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 1: with Houston with Stroud and they're they're an aggressive team.

757
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 1: They throw the ball. They throw the ball down the field.

758
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 1: They're not good on defense, as we saw last week.

759
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 1: I think Amari Cooper is still running somewhere. So to me,

760
00:33:58,040 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: you might get some more points than you might think

761
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 1: in that game. I don't know. It would be dog

762
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 1: or nothing. I don't like fading Rabel when Vrabel's getting

763
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:05,560
Speaker 1: a decent amount of points.

764
00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:07,280
Speaker 3: I think we're up to five five and a half

765
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 3: do so is the market telling you Stroud to go?

766
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 1: I think so? I think so?

767
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 3: I mean five, that's insane. I mean they weren't great

768
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 3: with Stroud, they were winning close games. But five plus

769
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 3: he's lost a couple of weapons.

770
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 1: I mean losing Dell. Dell is not a big name,

771
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 1: but man, Dell was a hell of a player.

772
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know. I think now that you say it,

773
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 3: I think I got to consider Tennessee.

774
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:31,400
Speaker 1: We do we know if we're getting Lewis or Tanneho.

775
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 1: I think it's Levis, right, I don't know.

776
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:36,839
Speaker 3: I'm not the biggest Levis guy. All these Titans fans

777
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:39,360
Speaker 3: hate me now because I suggested what about Russell Wilson

778
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 3: under the argument that, yeah, they just drafted quarterbacks back

779
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 3: to back years, But Rabel, Oh, by the way, has

780
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:48,800
Speaker 3: now gone two seasons, no playoffs, and there's no progress.

781
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 3: And if Rabel wants to win, do you roll do

782
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:56,040
Speaker 3: you give take a shot at Russell Wilson or do

783
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 3: you just say, hey, Will Levis is our guy. Will

784
00:34:57,719 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 3: We'll build around him. I don't do you think Derek

785
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 3: Henry will is sticking around because remember Henry talked openly

786
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:04,760
Speaker 3: like in the last two weeks, well they got probably

787
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 3: played my last game with this team. Like, I don't know, man,

788
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:10,840
Speaker 3: just feels like a bitter roll of the dice to

789
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 3: keep Levis out there, unless you hate Russell Wilson.

790
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 1: Though they're one of these teams. I think the Saints

791
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:17,760
Speaker 1: are in that category where they're kind of caught in between.

792
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:20,919
Speaker 1: They're not really contenders, they're not really rebuilding. They don't

793
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 1: really have a direction or a planet seems where, hey,

794
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:25,440
Speaker 1: we want to win. Everybody wants to win. It's the NFL.

795
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:26,759
Speaker 1: But they're not you know what I mean. They're not

796
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 1: really a Super Bowl contender. They're nowhere near that. And

797
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 1: they're not a team that's set up with one of

798
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 1: these young quarterbacks going forward. You would think, unless you're

799
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:36,839
Speaker 1: really a believer, in Levis, which I'm back and forth.

800
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 1: He looked good that first start or so against Pitts fight.

801
00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 1: But yeah, is that the guy you're really going to

802
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 1: hang your hat on going forward? It's a tough call.

803
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 3: No, Yeah, very difficult, and I guess last game. I

804
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 3: don't know, man, Maybe we could avoid these games because

805
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 3: these other games stink. Well, let me got Colts Vegas.

806
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 3: You got anything on that.

807
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 1: I wouldn't let it. The three and a half with

808
00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:59,320
Speaker 1: the Colts. I think this Colt seems really bad on defense.

809
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 1: Minshew is fast and loose with the ball. There are

810
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 1: good stories. Tykings done a good job. I think he's

811
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 1: a hell of a coach. But I could see this

812
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 1: being a fieldbal game. I would take the three and

813
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:09,320
Speaker 1: a half. Some good vibes around Raiders. I don't know

814
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 1: how much of it's sustainable. I don't know. Do you

815
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:12,920
Speaker 1: do you sit here and commit to Peers for the

816
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 1: next three or four years saying just because of a

817
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: couple of wins, maybe some flukey wins at the end

818
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:20,959
Speaker 1: of the season. That's always dangerous. But the player seem

819
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 1: to like him. Everyone seems to like him. He's got

820
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 1: a good command into the locker room. That's that's a

821
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 1: tough call, because man, they whiffed on some of these coaches.

822
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 1: I don't know what they do going forward. I would

823
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:29,959
Speaker 1: take the three and a half here.

824
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 3: In O'Connell's awful. I mean, he's just so bad.

825
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:34,920
Speaker 1: I mean, that's one of the most staggering statue you'll

826
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:37,439
Speaker 1: ever seem. Can you imagine a quarterback he completes nine

827
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:39,839
Speaker 1: passes on his first drive, he doesn't complete a pass

828
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 1: the rest of the game, and he sits there wins

829
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 1: the game. Man, you see some strange stuff.

830
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 3: So let me wrap up with this one. So Chiefs

831
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 3: super Bowl winners look really bad. Of late Eagles super

832
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 3: Bowl losers look not great. Do you think either of

833
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:58,439
Speaker 3: these has a chance to get back to the super

834
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 3: Bowl or more likely one and done for one or

835
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:00,839
Speaker 3: both of.

836
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:04,799
Speaker 1: Them, One and done would feel extreme, not unlikely, but

837
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 1: they'll both get home games, So you would think Philly

838
00:37:08,600 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 1: and is gonna probably win the division in Casey magic

839
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,240
Speaker 1: numbers one, So Casey is gonna win the division barring

840
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 1: some just ridiculous collapse. But I don't think either one's

841
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 1: getting back. If one of them got back, I guess

842
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:20,920
Speaker 1: I would go with Philly just because the NFC is

843
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 1: a little weaker, they would. I mean, I don't know,

844
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 1: maybe you just say, hey, San Frans banged it up.

845
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:29,760
Speaker 1: Maybe somebody can upset San Francisco. Then Philly gets home field.

846
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 1: I don't feel great about it. I think both these

847
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:32,320
Speaker 1: teams have their flaws.

848
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, interesting, I'm not writing off Philly, but you're right,

849
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 3: you know, San fran you lose one of their big

850
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:40,560
Speaker 3: three or four guys and it's open. I did go

851
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,440
Speaker 3: bet that Dallas this week. Future is just a nibble

852
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:48,439
Speaker 3: pizza money on maybe the Cowboys winning the NFC under

853
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 3: the guys that I think they're better than Philly now

854
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 3: and all it takes is one injury to someone on

855
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:56,239
Speaker 3: the Niners and boom. Unless you think Detroit, you know,

856
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 3: is it better. I don't think Dallas would have any

857
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 3: problem going to Detroit in January? Do you?

858
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:03,480
Speaker 1: I don't, and they are they certainly do. If nothing else, man,

859
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,160
Speaker 1: I think we're both of the age or old enough

860
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 1: where you can just imagine in nineteen ninety four, nineteen

861
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 1: ninety five, how ridiculous would be if somebody told you, hey,

862
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 1: this team is not going to be back to a

863
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 1: super Bowl, back to an NFC title game for a

864
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 1: two and a half three decades here, because I mean,

865
00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:18,959
Speaker 1: this team they lived in the Super Bowl. They were

866
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 1: just they were such a dominant forest and the league's

867
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:23,880
Speaker 1: better when they're good, and at least they're good, they're relevant.

868
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 1: But man, it's been a long time for that team.

869
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 3: And so you're not are you a Cowboys fan or no?

870
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 1: No?

871
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 3: Okay, So it's funny. I looked at you know, we

872
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 3: did some Baker Mayfield segment on the show, and I

873
00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 3: looked at his numbers. I was like, these are these

874
00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 3: are pretty good for Baker. And then I looked at

875
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 3: Troy Aikman's numbers during the Super Bowl runs. Bro, Baker

876
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 3: Mayfield's numbers this season are elect Troy Aikman level from

877
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 3: when they were going to the Super Bowl every year.

878
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 1: It's incredible.

879
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 3: I mean, the league has changed so much. I mean,

880
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:52,640
Speaker 3: I mean, I listened, Baker's been good, but Troy Aikman

881
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 3: at the time was like the man right right, he

882
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 3: was like, oh, this guy's a superstar.

883
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:57,840
Speaker 1: Right, And those teams were just killing everybody that I mean,

884
00:38:57,880 --> 00:38:59,839
Speaker 1: I don't remember those games chapter reverse, but I'm sure

885
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 1: they had some big leads and could just lean on

886
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: Emmitt Smith, lean on that offensive line and just run

887
00:39:03,480 --> 00:39:05,879
Speaker 1: out the clock. Those were some loaded teams. You can't

888
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 1: have teams like that because I don't. The cap just

889
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 1: doesn't allow you to just stack your team like that

890
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 1: team was. Yeah, absolutely dominant.

891
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:15,440
Speaker 3: NFL loves parody, all right, Will Hill, Will Where can

892
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 3: they find you online?

893
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 1: Yeah? I'm on Twitter or on X I should say

894
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 1: at nad Will Hill v Sain. I'm on a few

895
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 1: times a week Gold Boys, Discord, and I got a

896
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 1: new podcast called should Have Bet More. You can find

897
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 1: it on Apple Spotify. So I gotta we gotta do

898
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 1: a little home and home. I gotta have you on sometimes.

899
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:34,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, Hey, so tell me about this Discord. I you

900
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 3: know Preston Johnson. Yes, he's been telling me about some

901
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:39,719
Speaker 3: Discord stuff. And now my son is like, oh, I

902
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:42,719
Speaker 3: gotta get on Discord Dad for chess. I'm like, all right,

903
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:44,719
Speaker 3: whatever that means. What are you doing on.

904
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 1: Discord Our Discord? It's just it's right, ups, It's we

905
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 1: give out plays. A lot of times a things are

906
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 1: mispriced and we shoot out a message and we alert everybody,

907
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 1: hey this is a good bet, this is miss price again.

908
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:59,399
Speaker 1: It's right ups, it's chat room. So it's uh, it's

909
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 1: really it's helpful to uh, you know, when you're teaming

910
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 1: up against the books, that's really the best way to

911
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 1: beat them because it's hard to play one on one.

912
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 1: But if we all have eyes on different lines and

913
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 1: different markets to work together to beat the books, it's

914
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:10,800
Speaker 1: a lot easier.

915
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 3: So you had I don't think people would care for

916
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:16,800
Speaker 3: you had sent me there was a mispriced college. Was

917
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:18,760
Speaker 3: it a bold team total or something?

918
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 1: Yes, and it was like five points off and it

919
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 1: didn't matter because they went over. It might have been

920
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:24,360
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky. I think it was Western Kentucky when they

921
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:27,319
Speaker 1: played Old Dominion and one of the off shores had it.

922
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 1: And that was the crazy game where Western Kentucky their

923
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 1: back their quarterback was out might be their backup and

924
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 1: then they ended up playing like the third string guy

925
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 1: and the third string went off and they had that

926
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,479
Speaker 1: crazy comeback. But yeah, you look around, not every here's

927
00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:39,839
Speaker 1: the thing with books, you have to put a price

928
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:42,399
Speaker 1: on everything. It's they make mistakes. I mean sometimes things

929
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:45,080
Speaker 1: are off. Sometimes it's your stale and you know, you

930
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:46,799
Speaker 1: shop around and you have as many books and as

931
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 1: many eyes on things as possible. It help. It helps

932
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:49,120
Speaker 1: a lot to win.

933
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 3: So the discord, everybody's like looking for just mispriced stuff,

934
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 3: and then everybody jumps on it, and I guess you

935
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 3: got to be quick before they adjust it.

936
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 1: Right. Well, we the gold Boys disc I'm on, I'm

937
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 1: sure you heard about. It was week two I think

938
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:06,320
Speaker 1: of the NFL where FanDuel hung a two one hundred

939
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:09,479
Speaker 1: to one on every team to kick a field goal,

940
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 1: and it hit and it.

941
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 3: Was just every team and so all thirty two teams

942
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:16,440
Speaker 3: had to make a field goal.

943
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:19,600
Speaker 1: It was I think it was worded where everybody in

944
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 1: the day games, so the one o'clock window in the

945
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:23,760
Speaker 1: East coast, in the four o'clock windows, so I forget

946
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,240
Speaker 1: how many teams didn't include the night game, didn't include

947
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:27,759
Speaker 1: the Monday night game or the Thursday night game, but

948
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,799
Speaker 1: it was all the afternoon games and it hit. It

949
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:33,120
Speaker 1: was and like DraftKings I think had twenty five or

950
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 1: thirty to one and Fando had two hundred to one.

951
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 1: So sometimes things are just off mispriced and it you know,

952
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 1: it helps to have eyes on anything. I unfortunately, I

953
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:42,279
Speaker 1: was out. I was at my kids baseball game. When

954
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 1: you get a piece of it, but a lot of

955
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:44,479
Speaker 1: people did very well.

956
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 3: Yeah it's weird. I uh, I'm not at the computer

957
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 3: all the time like I used to be, so you

958
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 3: got to act super fast on this. You need like

959
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 3: alerts on your phone and then instantly got to go

960
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:57,399
Speaker 3: bet it. But I don't know, man, do you really

961
00:41:57,440 --> 00:41:59,360
Speaker 3: who has time to be sitting around at a computer

962
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 3: all day waiting for maybe minus two hundred to fall

963
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 3: into your lap? Right?

964
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 1: Sometimes, Look, sometimes it's lucky to draw where you're on

965
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 1: your phone at the right time and you catch it at

966
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 1: the right time. And that's why. I mean, you're never

967
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:12,239
Speaker 1: going to catch all of them.

968
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:15,160
Speaker 3: But yeah, all you need is a couple of those, boob,

969
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 3: You got a new car for sure, all right, Will

970
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 3: Hill keep up the good stuff man on good luck

971
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 3: in the new year to us.

972
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 1: Well all right, j Man, Happy new year. Thanks for

973
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 1: having me.

974
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 3: Man. Football is back. No more preseason games. The regular

975
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:30,680
Speaker 3: season is here. While we all love watching our favorite

976
00:42:30,719 --> 00:42:33,719
Speaker 3: teams on television, there is nothing better than being in

977
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 3: a game live and in person, and the best way

978
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 3: to get tickets to any of these games is on

979
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 3: Game Time, the fastest growing ticketing app in the US

980
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:45,160
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981
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:49,040
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982
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:53,040
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983
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:56,160
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984
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985
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:04,040
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986
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:08,719
Speaker 3: app and enter code Jmack. That's Jmac for twenty dollars off.

987
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 3: No matter where you live, get out and have some

988
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 3: fun this week. Download game Time today, last minute tickets,

989
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 3: lowest price guaranteed.

990
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 2: The only thing better than sitting on your couch watching

991
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 2: the games, always making money while you do it. Here's

992
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:26,840
Speaker 2: your best bet.

993
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 3: Good stuff from Will Hill on the NFL this teague.

994
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:32,960
Speaker 3: It's a tough slate, guys. Remember you can keep your

995
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 3: powder drive for the playoffs. You don't like some of

996
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:38,920
Speaker 3: these lines, man, I don't know. There's always people betting

997
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 3: on the team that needs the win against the team

998
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:44,040
Speaker 3: playing for nothing. That's a good way to lose a

999
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 3: lot of money, it really is. Do not do that.

1000
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 3: I got caught in two of them last week. Eagles

1001
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 3: and Chiefs. Again, those teams at home should cover the spread.

1002
00:43:53,840 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 3: I mean against real bad dumpster fires. You expected a

1003
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:59,520
Speaker 3: bounce back. Neither of them did this week. I'm just

1004
00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 3: cautiously with these Oh they got nothing to play for.

1005
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:05,319
Speaker 3: They're not showing up, They're trying to get a draft pick. No,

1006
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 3: they're not. The players and the coaches want to win.

1007
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:12,759
Speaker 3: The front office would love, would love the teams to

1008
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 3: lose to get a better DRAFTI but that's just not

1009
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 3: how it works. I would say the ones that the

1010
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 3: biggest fear, I probably will end up playing it with

1011
00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:23,320
Speaker 3: Buffalo in the contest, only so I can lose another

1012
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 3: double digit home favorite. Patriots did get the win last week.

1013
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 3: A slightly different there. And the other one that jumped out,

1014
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:33,879
Speaker 3: Oh the Giants game jumps out nothing to play for?

1015
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:39,360
Speaker 3: Rams are trying wild card Rams. That's nothing to play for. Oh, Cardinals, Eagles.

1016
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 3: Also the Jonathan Ganner revenge game. And Washington. I don't

1017
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 3: know if Washington Niners applies, we'll see, but you know,

1018
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 3: just be careful that Titans game, especially like all of

1019
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:54,319
Speaker 3: a sudden, TJ Stroud back from a concussion, is gonna

1020
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 3: light it up. I think you gotta hit Tennessee there. Anyways,

1021
00:44:56,880 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 3: let's get to the college football playoff. So as I'm

1022
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:04,239
Speaker 3: as we record this right now early Friday morning, Michigan

1023
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 3: is in the desert, a two and a half point favorite.

1024
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:11,560
Speaker 3: Almost everywhere else around the country it's one and a half.

1025
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 3: My guess is in the desert offshore, they know guess

1026
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 3: what money's coming, Alabama Money's coming. That's what the public

1027
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 3: is going to do. They are jumping in hand over fist.

1028
00:45:26,239 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 3: Oh come on, Harball. I saw this stat. I had

1029
00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:33,360
Speaker 3: to triple check it. Jim Harbaugh oh and six against

1030
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:37,959
Speaker 3: the spread, oh and six straight up in his last

1031
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:41,239
Speaker 3: six bowl games. It almost seems unfathomable that he could

1032
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 3: be that bad. But remember a lot of these games

1033
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 3: are exhibition. Now, last year's was the TCU debacle where

1034
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 3: it just it didn't work out. I mean McArthur's two

1035
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 3: pick sixes and TCU was on a charmed run. It

1036
00:45:56,080 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 3: was pretty incredible. I don't really know how to slice

1037
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:04,319
Speaker 3: that other than holy hell, that was fluky. But I

1038
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:06,920
Speaker 3: thought Michigan should have won that game. I was on Michigan,

1039
00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 3: and you know it's Alabama. It's Nick Saban with a

1040
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:18,720
Speaker 3: month to prepare. Alabama usually clobbers anyone who isn't Georgia

1041
00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:21,360
Speaker 3: in Bowl games? Like, I think you've got to go

1042
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:25,480
Speaker 3: back at least a decade to find the last time

1043
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:28,560
Speaker 3: Alabama was a dog to somebody in the postseason other

1044
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:33,279
Speaker 3: than Georgia, Like, that's the only team that really scares Alabama.

1045
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:35,239
Speaker 3: And I know people will point you, Oh, remember when

1046
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:38,279
Speaker 3: Michigan they had to play Alabama and they panned to

1047
00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:41,279
Speaker 3: the Michigan room and it was a bunch of groans like, uh, well, yeah,

1048
00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 3: nobody wants to play Alabama. You don't play the SEC team,

1049
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 3: obviously they're good. And you toss in the fact that

1050
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:49,760
Speaker 3: you know this kid, Milroe, who came out on Thursday

1051
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:55,240
Speaker 3: and said, listen, Mike offensive coordinat last year Bill O'Brien

1052
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 3: told me I shouldn't play quarterback. Like I bounced back.

1053
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 3: I'm happy with that. And he has a pretty stunning

1054
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 3: story turn around.

1055
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:04,120
Speaker 1: Right, here's the kicker.

1056
00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 3: Milroe was not good earlier this season, he got benched.

1057
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:12,359
Speaker 3: Now he has turned it around. My guess is he's

1058
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:14,799
Speaker 3: gonna struggle in this one. Now. However, I do need

1059
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:18,319
Speaker 3: to point out Michigan has not faced a running quarterback

1060
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:22,239
Speaker 3: this season. Nobody on the caliber of Milroe and you know,

1061
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 3: do they spy Milroe? This is not going to be

1062
00:47:25,640 --> 00:47:30,440
Speaker 3: an easy one. That being said, I it's easy to

1063
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 3: look at skill position players and you know, look at

1064
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:35,520
Speaker 3: trends and all this stuff. I really think we need

1065
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:39,400
Speaker 3: to remember guys fundamentally. We've talked about this forever. Football

1066
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 3: comes down to the trenches, and Michigan is vastly superior

1067
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:46,959
Speaker 3: in the trenches to Alabama. Now, Alabama has great RUSSI

1068
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:49,880
Speaker 3: ends two guys are going to be pros. But I

1069
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:52,240
Speaker 3: do believe Michigan, even though they lost one All American

1070
00:47:52,520 --> 00:47:55,719
Speaker 3: to injury again that Ohio State game. I think this

1071
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 3: is a game where Harbaugh is able to control the

1072
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 3: line of script majorly. They get out to a lead

1073
00:48:02,239 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 3: and let their defense kind of dominate Milroe. For me,

1074
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 3: for my money, this is not an explosive, dynamic Alabama

1075
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:15,440
Speaker 3: offense that you got to really fear. Milroe can make

1076
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 3: some plays, but again, I just Michigan defense. I'm just

1077
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:21,120
Speaker 3: gonna go. And I know some of the numbers are

1078
00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:23,399
Speaker 3: built up against total crap teams in the Big Ten,

1079
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:25,640
Speaker 3: and who if they played that's all fair. You know,

1080
00:48:25,680 --> 00:48:27,560
Speaker 3: Penn State, do we know if they're good? I don't

1081
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:31,239
Speaker 3: freaking know if they're good. But again, I look back

1082
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:35,239
Speaker 3: to Alabama's big game against Georgia, and what strikes me

1083
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:39,280
Speaker 3: is Alabama's offense didn't really do much and this Georgia

1084
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:43,280
Speaker 3: defense good, not amazing, not amazing defense. I mean, Alabama

1085
00:48:43,280 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 3: had three hundred yards of offense, like three for thirteen

1086
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:49,160
Speaker 3: on third down, like two point eight yards of carry.

1087
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:51,440
Speaker 3: It was just it was a weird game that they

1088
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:54,839
Speaker 3: like came out on top at Georgia did not play great,

1089
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 3: very vanilla game plan. The young quarterback for Georgia, who

1090
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:02,360
Speaker 3: everybody likes, Beck did not have an amazing game. He

1091
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 3: was good, but you know, it was just one of

1092
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:09,320
Speaker 3: those wacky games. Georgia jumps out early first drive touchdown,

1093
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 3: You're like, oh, they got this, and then it was

1094
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:14,880
Speaker 3: just all Alabama. The miss field goal late in the

1095
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 3: half kind of hurt, and Alabama gets that touchdown seventeen seven,

1096
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:22,040
Speaker 3: and I was like, the hell Georgia, you know, brutal

1097
00:49:22,080 --> 00:49:24,360
Speaker 3: fumble in their own end it leads to an Alabama

1098
00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:26,920
Speaker 3: field goal. It's just not they didn't play great. I

1099
00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:30,360
Speaker 3: didn't think Alabama was amazing. I mean, guys, if you

1100
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:35,400
Speaker 3: really want to get granular. Go look at the Alabama season. Okay,

1101
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:38,400
Speaker 3: I'm not just talking about what they did in the SEC.

1102
00:49:38,440 --> 00:49:41,759
Speaker 3: I'm talking about the full season. They needed one of

1103
00:49:41,760 --> 00:49:44,600
Speaker 3: the craziest plays in the college football season to beat Auburn.

1104
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:47,480
Speaker 3: It was like fourth and goal from the thirty one

1105
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:49,640
Speaker 3: and just chuck it up and the guy makes an

1106
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:54,360
Speaker 3: amazing catch. This is a team that really struggled with Arkansas,

1107
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:57,960
Speaker 3: with Texas A and M. Like. I know Auburn was

1108
00:49:57,960 --> 00:50:02,360
Speaker 3: a rivalry game, but I just haven't seen total dominance out. Listen,

1109
00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:05,279
Speaker 3: maybe Saban turns it on and Saban goes nuts and

1110
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 3: he's got the greatest game plan ever. That's all possible.

1111
00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:10,719
Speaker 3: But if you're asking me, Jay who has the edge

1112
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:12,960
Speaker 3: in the trenches, it's Michigan Jay, who's got the edge

1113
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 3: of quarterback. I am a McCarthy guy. We will see.

1114
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:18,800
Speaker 3: I do know the scouts I've talked to, they love McCarthy.

1115
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 3: That's why I've had him in the In the early

1116
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:24,120
Speaker 3: mock draft, the whole time people scoffed, we gotta get

1117
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:27,359
Speaker 3: Daniel Jeremiah on Jeremiah likes him. He thinks hell from

1118
00:50:27,480 --> 00:50:29,239
Speaker 3: text that we've said, he thinks he's in the mix

1119
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:31,960
Speaker 3: to be the third quarterback taken. Now that was I

1120
00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:33,840
Speaker 3: think that was back in November. We were texting about it,

1121
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:38,160
Speaker 3: but apparently you know. And I'm not gonna get into

1122
00:50:38,160 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 3: it because I haven't verified it. But McCarthy just needs to,

1123
00:50:41,080 --> 00:50:43,160
Speaker 3: you know, make sure he's buttoned up off the field.

1124
00:50:43,280 --> 00:50:45,920
Speaker 3: And you know, guy's a big man on campus and

1125
00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:50,200
Speaker 3: in ann Arbor. He's going pro, big dude, handsome guy

1126
00:50:50,320 --> 00:50:52,400
Speaker 3: that you know, he's got a lot cooking. He just

1127
00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:54,600
Speaker 3: needs as as long as he's buttoned up off the field,

1128
00:50:54,640 --> 00:50:56,960
Speaker 3: I think he's a pro. I think he's a better

1129
00:50:57,040 --> 00:50:59,520
Speaker 3: quarterback than Milroe. You know, Milroll's a goodrunner. But I'm

1130
00:50:59,520 --> 00:51:01,360
Speaker 3: telling him Arthy has some wheels and they will be

1131
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:04,680
Speaker 3: on display. I haven't seen the prop numbers yet, but

1132
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 3: I will be looking to bet over McCarthy rush yards

1133
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 3: because I don't think he's gonna want to make mistakes

1134
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:14,360
Speaker 3: the way he did against TCU forcing stuff. We know

1135
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 3: Alabama's got a nasty pass rush. I can see McCarthy

1136
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:20,359
Speaker 3: getting loose scrambling forty thirty forty fifty yards. I think

1137
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:22,320
Speaker 3: he can have a good, good game on the ground,

1138
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 3: and they'll probably need it, so I am on Michigan

1139
00:51:25,719 --> 00:51:27,879
Speaker 3: in this one. I'm on the money line. I got

1140
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 3: the one I have minus two. I'm not gonna say

1141
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 3: if it hits three, take Alabama. I'm just I'm poc

1142
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:36,719
Speaker 3: committed to Michigan, and I need to add full disclosure.

1143
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:40,280
Speaker 3: When I went to Vegas in August, the one college

1144
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:44,319
Speaker 3: Football Natty bet I have is Michigan Future. So I'm

1145
00:51:44,320 --> 00:51:47,279
Speaker 3: obviously rooting for Michigan. No, it's not big enough that

1146
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:49,480
Speaker 3: I need to hedge with Bama here. If I need

1147
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:53,040
Speaker 3: to hedge, I'll do it in the National Championship game.

1148
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:59,359
Speaker 3: Ask for Texas Washington. Listen. I can't get over the

1149
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:02,399
Speaker 3: fact that if you guys remember the PAC twelve title game,

1150
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:07,520
Speaker 3: everybody and their mom was on Oregon. We had I

1151
00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:10,719
Speaker 3: think it was Brad Powers on here. The line ballooned up.

1152
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:14,759
Speaker 3: I think it closed to ten, and I didn't, you know,

1153
00:52:14,840 --> 00:52:16,520
Speaker 3: have really a bet on it. And then we're getting

1154
00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:18,200
Speaker 3: close to the game and I'm like, and I put

1155
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:20,040
Speaker 3: it on my Instagram for those of you who follow

1156
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:24,120
Speaker 3: as like, there's just no I cannot get on with

1157
00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:26,399
Speaker 3: everybody else. Let me just put a small play on

1158
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:29,320
Speaker 3: Washington getting points. I should have done moneyline, but I didn't,

1159
00:52:29,800 --> 00:52:35,600
Speaker 3: and Washington basically led soup to nuts awesome performance, and

1160
00:52:36,719 --> 00:52:40,280
Speaker 3: I just wonder, just remember the perception in the market

1161
00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:45,080
Speaker 3: was they were ten point dogs to Oregon and now

1162
00:52:46,120 --> 00:52:52,160
Speaker 3: they're in a neutral site only four against Texas. So

1163
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 3: Oregon in a neutral site is way better than Texas.

1164
00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:58,840
Speaker 3: It just feels like a strange line to me. It

1165
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:01,520
Speaker 3: sat on four. My yes is as we get closer,

1166
00:53:01,560 --> 00:53:05,440
Speaker 3: we'll see some Texas money. Probably this closes five and

1167
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:07,839
Speaker 3: a half six. Now, the issue with Washington is they're

1168
00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:12,000
Speaker 3: not gonna stop chucking. Pennex and those receivers. You know

1169
00:53:12,719 --> 00:53:16,359
Speaker 3: you're down, you know thirteen, Let's say it's thirty four

1170
00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:19,240
Speaker 3: to twenty one. They're gonna keep chucking. They're not gonna

1171
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:21,759
Speaker 3: instantly stop, and Pennix can uncork those bombs. The big

1172
00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:23,280
Speaker 3: plays can be had over Texas.

1173
00:53:23,920 --> 00:53:24,000
Speaker 1: Uh.

1174
00:53:24,080 --> 00:53:26,400
Speaker 3: In the secondary, that's the big question for Texas secondary.

1175
00:53:26,400 --> 00:53:28,520
Speaker 3: Can they hold up? Everybody wants to point to last

1176
00:53:28,640 --> 00:53:31,839
Speaker 3: year's game, remember the bull game Washington, Well, they crushed them.

1177
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:32,600
Speaker 1: Folks.

1178
00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:36,960
Speaker 3: Did be Jean Robinson play and he was like the

1179
00:53:37,080 --> 00:53:39,759
Speaker 3: number one guy of Texas guys who missed the game

1180
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:42,000
Speaker 3: who sat out, So like I don't really put much

1181
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:44,480
Speaker 3: stock in that now. I did see a report that

1182
00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:48,840
Speaker 3: quinn Ewers is staying at Texas, but apparently it's not official,

1183
00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:53,560
Speaker 3: because nothing has been announced that quinn Ewers is staying.

1184
00:53:56,080 --> 00:53:58,279
Speaker 3: We'll see. I mean, if he has an awesome game,

1185
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:01,120
Speaker 3: and he very well could again to Washington defense, that

1186
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:05,279
Speaker 3: ain't great. I just I don't know what yours is

1187
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:10,040
Speaker 3: doing staying. I like him a lot that game against Washington.

1188
00:54:10,080 --> 00:54:11,440
Speaker 3: You go look at all the big time throws he

1189
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:13,440
Speaker 3: made in that game. People get caught up in the

1190
00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:15,799
Speaker 3: mullet that he used to have. And he leaves high

1191
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:18,440
Speaker 3: school early to chase nil money at Ohio State, and

1192
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:20,920
Speaker 3: he transfers to Texas, and you know, he's kind of

1193
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:22,880
Speaker 3: a goofy young guy and he's starting to mature a

1194
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:24,840
Speaker 3: little bit. How much of a jerk off for you

1195
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:28,120
Speaker 3: at nineteen? You know? So this keep yours man, I

1196
00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:30,040
Speaker 3: like it. I like Texas. I'm on Texas here. I

1197
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:32,880
Speaker 3: think they win this one, probably by double digits. Once

1198
00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 3: they can get the lead. That run game should be

1199
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:38,640
Speaker 3: able to choke out Washington because they're not great at

1200
00:54:38,680 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 3: stopping the run. Washington defense is not great. I like

1201
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:45,839
Speaker 3: Texas has several back they got. Texas has way more talent. Now.

1202
00:54:45,920 --> 00:54:50,480
Speaker 3: Washington has an awesome quarterback and two awesome receivers, and

1203
00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:53,040
Speaker 3: I love their coach. But other than that, there's not

1204
00:54:53,200 --> 00:54:57,799
Speaker 3: a ton of talent on this team. And so I'm

1205
00:54:57,840 --> 00:55:02,880
Speaker 3: on Texas and I'm on Michigan to advance. Very exciting.

1206
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:04,600
Speaker 3: I love these two Bowl games. They're the only ones

1207
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:07,720
Speaker 3: really you'd lock into. I mean, listen, Arizona Oklahoma. Okay,

1208
00:55:07,760 --> 00:55:10,360
Speaker 3: you know, fine, you have one eye on that. Like

1209
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:14,319
Speaker 3: I went out for a bite with Cowherd last night,

1210
00:55:14,920 --> 00:55:17,279
Speaker 3: and you know, we're watching Jets Brown's and then the

1211
00:55:17,320 --> 00:55:20,040
Speaker 3: Arizona Oklahoma and it's like, Okay, it's an exhibition game,

1212
00:55:20,080 --> 00:55:23,359
Speaker 3: but why not. It's you're killing time, hanging out. And

1213
00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:27,480
Speaker 3: but the playoff games, it's like, all right, there's no

1214
00:55:27,520 --> 00:55:31,239
Speaker 3: two TVs here. This is locked in one event. You know,

1215
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:33,440
Speaker 3: I don't know if it's quite taking notes, but you

1216
00:55:33,520 --> 00:55:36,360
Speaker 3: are paying very close attention for the playoff games. He

1217
00:55:36,400 --> 00:55:40,200
Speaker 3: should be phenomenal. Guys, enjoy the weekend, the long weekend,

1218
00:55:40,640 --> 00:55:43,560
Speaker 3: have a happy and safe new year. We'll check back

1219
00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:46,520
Speaker 3: in with you on January second. Talk to you then,