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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast pod.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we are.

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Speaker 1: Reading the corner ten seconds of eight, so it just

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Speaker 1: goes throw down the basket under the basket.

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Speaker 3: That's the true for the wind god verracle.

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Speaker 1: I just sword big that one from a fucking love.

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Speaker 3: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 3: on Campus Podcast. This is the nc double A Tournament

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Speaker 3: betting preview for Friday's slate. I'm stucky in joining me

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Speaker 3: today my fellow BBOC co hosts Mike Calvary's and the

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Speaker 3: one and only Josh Nunn aka Duck if you already

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Speaker 3: missed it, myself, Greg and Christian went through every game

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Speaker 3: on Thursday. Today, we will go through every game on

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Speaker 3: Friday chronologically. Two matchups still tbd. Who cares about the ones?

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Speaker 3: He will touch on potentially the other. But we have

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Speaker 3: fourteen games to go through. Help you fill out your brackets,

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Speaker 3: find some potential winners. I will say from a betting perspective,

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Speaker 3: Friday is my ire. I have more games. I think

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna be betting on Friday than Thursday. I do

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Speaker 3: like the slate, so can't wait to dive in with

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Speaker 3: you boys. I will give you, we'll give our final

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Speaker 3: four championship looks. At the end of the show, I

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Speaker 3: will give you an opportunity. I'll give you thirty seconds

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Speaker 3: to share something you like for Thursday. If you'd like,

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Speaker 3: I will say one thing I forgot after the podcast

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Speaker 3: is always something I'm like, I wish I mentioned in

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Speaker 3: the Saint Louis game, Rabbi Javolas Planner fresh lightist. That's

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Speaker 3: something worth mentioning, at least with his foot, like how

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Speaker 3: because he's gonna be an important piece to drave surrill out,

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Speaker 3: but like how healthy is he? Can he go full

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Speaker 3: well go? That's something that just can flare up. So

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Speaker 3: I just wanted to mention that Cabrey shall go with

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Speaker 3: you anything on Thursday you want to mention.

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Speaker 1: So there's two games that I like, same game parlays

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Speaker 1: because I feel like they're correlated events. And it's Hawaii

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Speaker 1: plus the points and under one sixty one and a

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Speaker 1: half against the Hogs and then Saint Mary's lay in

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Speaker 1: the two and a half and under one forty eight

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Speaker 1: and a half against the Aggies. You know, Hawaii, I

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Speaker 1: do think they're going to go zone. I think they

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Speaker 1: have no choice. You can't leave a cuff in man

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Speaker 1: demand with no help, So I think it's going to

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Speaker 1: be a different situation, not something that they put on

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Speaker 1: tape all that much this season.

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Speaker 3: So I think we're now relying on Calipari to.

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Speaker 1: Have those in game adjustments, not necessarily the best track

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Speaker 1: record in the world in the NCAA tournament doing that.

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Speaker 1: And then from the Saint Mary's perspective, I've seen.

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Speaker 3: This before with Randy Bennett.

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Speaker 1: I know how he's able to impose his will in

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Speaker 1: terms of tempo. I think this one is already graded

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Speaker 1: out with the artz books kind of leaning, you know,

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Speaker 1: and showing their hand a little bit that they believe

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Speaker 1: that the Aggies are going to speed this game up,

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Speaker 1: which if that's how they felt, I think this one

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Speaker 1: should have closed closer to a pick. So I'm going

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Speaker 1: to go ahead and take the correlated events plus two

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Speaker 1: to fifty plus two to sixty five in the market.

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Speaker 1: Either one of those prices is good both on the

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Speaker 1: Bow's catching points and under and the Gales lay in

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Speaker 1: two and a half at under.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, A and M's turnover rate is evaporate. And if

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Speaker 3: they can't get that going Mary's as they are so

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Speaker 3: often do, under Randy Bennett in big games should be

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Speaker 3: able to control Temple. I don't mind that look duck

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Speaker 3: anything you want to mention with Thursday.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Wisconsin's team total over eighty seven and

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Speaker 2: a half against High Point. The Big South is on

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Speaker 2: an zero to five against the spread run in the

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Speaker 2: NCAA Tournament. High Point plays very, very fast. They're going

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Speaker 2: to press almost ninety four feet almost exclusively the entire game,

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Speaker 2: if not three quarter court. They're going to gamble defensively,

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Speaker 2: and good luck turning the Badgers over. Wisconsin commits turnovers

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Speaker 2: at the third fewest rate in the country, and Greg

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Speaker 2: Guard has these guys playing faster than any Wisconsin team

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Speaker 2: ever had. These guys made fifteen threes against Michigan. They

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Speaker 2: can shoot, they can get to the rim, they can

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Speaker 2: get to the stripe. I just look at Wisconsin's point

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Speaker 2: totals against some of the elite defenses they've played this year.

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Speaker 2: Ninety or more against Illinois twice, ninety seven against Purdue,

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Speaker 2: ninety seven against Michigan State, ninety one against Michigan earlier

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Speaker 2: this year. I just feel like Wisconsin is going to

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Speaker 2: be able to shred this High Point defense. I think stylistically,

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Speaker 2: it's a bad matchup for high Point. High Point may

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Speaker 2: hang around and keep it within the number if they

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Speaker 2: can match the scoring. But I think Wisconsin surpasses the

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Speaker 2: eighty seven and a half and I think they push

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Speaker 2: one hundred a year.

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Speaker 3: Wisconsin probably a very good line bet if they get

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Speaker 3: down early. A running running team. All right, let's move

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Speaker 3: on to Friday slate. Let's kick things off. First game

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Speaker 3: will go chronologically twelve to fifteen Eastern on Friday on CBS.

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Speaker 3: Can already hear the music. Nothing better before that first game.

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Speaker 3: Kentucky taking on Santa Clair. Kentucky's at three and a

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Speaker 3: half point favorite total one sixty and a half. This

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Speaker 3: open lower. Kentucky took some early a lot of early money,

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Speaker 3: been some buybacks since. I think there'll be a little

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Speaker 3: bit more Santa Clair money. I will tell you personally,

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Speaker 3: Kentucky gets another early tip early tip. You gotta be

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Speaker 3: kidding me. We can't have joy here in Lexington, so

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Speaker 3: Kentucky's probably losing. I don't think it's a great matchup

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Speaker 3: for the Cats. Santa Clair will pressure you, will extend

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Speaker 3: their defensive pressure, getting the gaps, and they can match

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Speaker 3: Kentucky with their athleticism. Santa Clair is a very very

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Speaker 3: good team. Love Alan Graves. This team is dangerous. Kentucky.

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Speaker 3: The problem is, I just I can't figure out at Kentucky.

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Speaker 3: Like they are of a strange nut to crack. They're

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Speaker 3: also very streaky. Additionally, they they will start games countless

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Speaker 3: times year, start games horrifically, and they get down and

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Speaker 3: then they'll mount come back. But then where there's a

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Speaker 3: little bit of a wrench in here is the committee

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Speaker 3: didn't do They didn't do me any favors more of

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Speaker 3: my wife, I should say with this tip time, But

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Speaker 3: they didn't do any Santa They didn't do Santa Clair

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Speaker 3: any favors. This is a nine to fifteen am local

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Speaker 3: tip or ten to fifteen This is an early morning

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Speaker 3: tip in Missouri. You know, Kentucky's gonna have an enormous

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Speaker 3: fan base presence there, so they're gonna Kentucky fans are

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Speaker 3: gonna travel, and so they're gonna have like a slight

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Speaker 3: home crowd effect. The early tip. Who gets out to

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Speaker 3: the fast start here and how does that impact this game?

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Speaker 3: I will I know you guys don't really have any

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Speaker 3: strong takes here, Mike, do you wanna do you wanna

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Speaker 3: I get at three and a half, it's Santa Clair

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Speaker 3: or nothing for me. Do you have anything you want

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Speaker 3: to add?

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Speaker 1: I just want to add this if anyone's on the

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Speaker 1: fence and they're thinking about going with Santa Clara. This

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Speaker 1: has been a special year in the WCC. They sent

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Speaker 1: three teams to the Big Dance, so they were tested

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Speaker 1: throughout their conference schedule, and when you look at the

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Speaker 1: non con they played some really good mid majors who

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Speaker 1: ended up making the field and low majors like they

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Speaker 1: beat McNeice, they should have beat Saint Louis, and that's

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Speaker 1: when Saint Louis was white hot to start the season.

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Speaker 1: They tested themselves against you know, some Big twelve teams

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Speaker 1: as well. So in terms of the shock, the athleticism

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Speaker 1: that they're going to see from Kentucky and the brand

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Speaker 1: of basketball, I don't think they're going to be out

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Speaker 1: of their depth.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 1: I'm keeping my money on the sideline for this one.

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Speaker 1: I don't have any official play, but I just want

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Speaker 1: to give a little bit encouragement to anyone who's thinking

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Speaker 1: about back backing the Broncos.

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Speaker 3: In the spot, yeah, I mean, did you just filter

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Speaker 3: and look at these teams versus like elite competition turning

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Speaker 3: teams top hundred TOPI the I mean Santa Clara has

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Speaker 3: been the better team. They have the more reliable two

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Speaker 3: point offense, and they're good on the offensive glass too.

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Speaker 3: I think they'll win the shot by in the battle

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Speaker 3: because I think Kentucky will struggle with their pressure. Kentucky

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Speaker 3: will turn the ball over. Santa Clara can I think

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Speaker 3: at least battle them even on the glass, win the

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Speaker 3: turnover margin battle and as a result, win the shot volume. Now,

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Speaker 3: both these teams are streaky though, so like this could

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Speaker 3: be a good live betting game. Like if Kentucky does

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Speaker 3: get out early, I would like to bet back Santa

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Speaker 3: Clair live. The whistle will be important because Santa Clair,

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Speaker 3: with their aggressive d does foul frequently. They need to

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Speaker 3: avoid foul trouble. Kentucky is a team that is going

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Speaker 3: to get to the line and if they're you know,

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Speaker 3: you got their home crowd contingent forcing them a friendly

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Speaker 3: whistle that could have in something that could have an

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Speaker 3: impact on this game. I don't have a strong take,

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Speaker 3: but at three and a half, it's Santa Clara or nothing. Duck,

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Speaker 3: what do you got here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I like Santa Clara very well coached and a

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Speaker 2: much more formidable WCC team to square up against Kentucky

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Speaker 2: here than you might think. I would worry though about

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Speaker 2: Santa Clara and how much they're going to crash the

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Speaker 2: boards because they're transitioned to defense is poor. So if

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Speaker 2: Kentucky wants to run on these guys out after missus,

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Speaker 2: if you've got all your guys trying to get offensive rebounds,

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Speaker 2: Kentucky might have some transition layups here. So should be

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Speaker 2: high scoring or at least the ability to have that

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Speaker 2: with some higher tempo and think it's a game that

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Speaker 2: could come down to the wire.

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Speaker 3: Yep, all right, let's move on to the second game,

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Speaker 3: where we have some stronger opinions. Akron Texas Tech Texas

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Speaker 3: Tech see around eight point favorite total one fifty six

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Speaker 3: and a half. This game will tip a twelve forty

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Speaker 3: Eastern on True TV, and this will take place in Tampa, Florida.

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Speaker 3: I look, there's a lot of talk this line opened

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Speaker 3: a bit higher. Ackron has taken some money. Every single

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Speaker 3: year you're gonna hear about, Oh this is a trendy underdog.

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Speaker 3: I can tell you I've been doing this for been

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Speaker 3: betting college basketball for over twenty years. There will be

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Speaker 3: trendy underdogs that get demolished. There will be trendy underdogs

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Speaker 3: that'll win. If you like the game, bet it. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I can point to countless examples both ways. I will

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Speaker 3: say Akron is a trendy dog. Also, sometimes dogs are

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Speaker 3: a little trendier than people think on Twitter because Twitter

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Speaker 3: is an echo chamber and there are people that like

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Speaker 3: a vet initially and then everyone just follows along. So

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Speaker 3: keep that in mind as well. Twitter is a very

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Speaker 3: very very small percentage of the actual betting world. But

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Speaker 3: Acron on Twitter, Acron is trendy. I love it. It

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Speaker 3: was first bet on, first second, first bet I made

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Speaker 3: in the tournament. Said it right when the draw came out,

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Speaker 3: that I like Akron, don't care that it's trendy. Now

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Speaker 3: I will say, like, Akron is a team I wanted

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Speaker 3: to bet in the dance in Texas Tech is the

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Speaker 3: team I wanted to fad so I was like, oh okay,

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Speaker 3: perfect they got matched up together. Now I will say

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Speaker 3: just Acron could get the ACT would lose this game

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Speaker 3: by twenty five if Texas Tech is red hot from

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Speaker 3: three and Akron is off. I mean, you're going to

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Speaker 3: get lots of three point looks from three against Akron.

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Speaker 3: Their perimeter defense is not great, and Texas Tech is

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Speaker 3: one of the best shooting teams in the country. Now,

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Speaker 3: Ackron soul has the case. Even if Texas Tech's hot

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Speaker 3: and scoring, Akron still has the capability of matching them here.

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Speaker 3: I mean to Ackron is also one of the best

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Speaker 3: shooting teams in the country. Tech does a better job

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Speaker 3: of limiting looks from the outside, but their pick and

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Speaker 3: roll defense is sad. It's very, very poor. I think

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Speaker 3: it's like the seventeenth percentile nationally, which is something that

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Speaker 3: Acron can take advantage. With Tabari Johnson in company, I mean,

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Speaker 3: this Acro team has legit high major athleticism. With the

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Speaker 3: Mahafis Lyles Johnson running the show, they're seniors all over,

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Speaker 3: and then you just you have some guys who are

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Speaker 3: just absolutely dead dead eye shooters. I mean, Lyles can

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Speaker 3: step out in the pick and roll in the pick

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Speaker 3: and pop, he's hitting thirty eight percent. He's been cold lately.

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Speaker 3: It'd be nice to see him. I think he went

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Speaker 3: like oh or one for fourteen in the MAC Turn

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Speaker 3: he'd be nice to see him hit one early. But uh,

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Speaker 3: you know, Tavari Johnson hits near thirty eight percent, Tama

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Speaker 3: Scott who hit that crazy step back to win the

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Speaker 3: MAC title, He's over forty two percent on the year.

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Speaker 3: And then Bowen Hardman is just that guy out there

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Speaker 3: to stretch the defenses. He's a tough shot maker too.

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Speaker 3: He's at forty two percent. So this team can flat

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Speaker 3: out score and I just don't now they want to

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Speaker 3: play fast, up and down. There's probably gonna be runs

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Speaker 3: in this game. I'm just not sold on Texas Tech

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Speaker 3: without Without JT. Toppin, I think he's that important. I

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Speaker 3: don't think I think he would be just a massive

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Speaker 3: issue here for Akron if he was playing with his

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Speaker 3: passing ability. Uh, and in the pick and roll, because

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Speaker 3: Ackrons struggles defending pick and roll as well. But you look,

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Speaker 3: I mean they lost Topping. They made some adjustments. But

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Speaker 3: Casson's a great coach, and look he's had He's gonna

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Speaker 3: have eight days to repare, so I respect him. But

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Speaker 3: John Gross is also a good coach, one of the

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Speaker 3: best against the spread that we have. It'll make great

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Speaker 3: in game adjustments as well, So this is a really

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Speaker 3: good coaching matchup. MAC teams have done very well as

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Speaker 3: seven plus point underdogs in the tournament. I will say, like,

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Speaker 3: so when you look when they lost Toppin, lost them

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Speaker 3: against Arizona State, they played the corpse of Kansas State

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Speaker 3: and blew them out, had an impressive performance against Cincinnati,

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Speaker 3: and then they went to Iowa State, it would think

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Speaker 3: it was like a twenty point shot quality loss, like

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Speaker 3: they just made every shot. And then they lost at

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Speaker 3: home easily to TCU, They lost at BYU, and then

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Speaker 3: they were destroyed against Iowa State in the Big twelve

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Speaker 3: Tournament in a game that was never competitive. And I

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Speaker 3: think that part of that was you're seeing the impact

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Speaker 3: of the loss of Toppin. So this should be an

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Speaker 3: exciting game to watch. There's going to be shot makers

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Speaker 3: all over. If Texas Tech is on fuego from start

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Speaker 3: to finish, an acron as cold from three Tech will

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Speaker 3: win by double digits. But I'm willing to back back

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Speaker 3: Acron eight or better. I think is fine. Like where

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Speaker 3: this open nine to ten is where I'd have it

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Speaker 3: with Toppin, So I'm fine back in here and look,

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Speaker 3: Texas Tech, what if you want to talk about a

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Speaker 3: team that potentially could be in for some maybe some

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Speaker 3: three point regression that left they shoot. They've been shooting

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Speaker 3: forty percent all year, But I don't think that they can.

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Speaker 3: I just don't think that they can maintain that level.

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Speaker 3: I know they have great shooters without Topping and his

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Speaker 3: passing ability and the attention that he draws, and if

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Speaker 3: I just look, I mean three point net delta since

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Speaker 3: February first, a lot of this is without Topping. Texas

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Speaker 3: Tech's running plus eleven plus eleven percent, which means you

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Speaker 3: take what they're shooting from three and what other teams

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Speaker 3: are shooting, they're plus eleven percent. So yeah, I mean

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Speaker 3: the only team higher than that running better is Howard

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Speaker 3: at plus twelve point eight. In a game where there's

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Speaker 3: gonna be some three point variants, maybe that regression crashes

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Speaker 3: down on Texas Tech and favors Akron. I like the Zips.

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Speaker 3: I'm trusting Gross, I'm trusting these seniors. I'm trusting Tavari Johnson,

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Speaker 3: great guard battle with him and Christian Anderson, one of

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Speaker 3: the best in the country. Mike, you agree, Yeah, I'm.

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Speaker 1: On Akron here plus two sixty and you hit on

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Speaker 1: all the major points. But just to kind of get

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Speaker 1: into the weeds on what Texas Tech has been like

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Speaker 1: without Topping. I mean, he was rodmanesque on the glass

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Speaker 1: for them throughout the entire season prior to the injury,

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Speaker 1: and since his departure, they've fallen outside of the top

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Speaker 1: three hundred in defensive rebounding percentage. That's a major problem

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Speaker 1: when you pair it with the fact that since he's left,

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Speaker 1: they can't turn anyone over. They're injuring fifty eighth in

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Speaker 1: the country, So it all becomes dependent not just this game,

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Speaker 1: but you know, however long their run is in this tournament.

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Speaker 1: On Christian Anderson, who's now nursing the groin injury because

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Speaker 1: he slipped on that.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Zachary, you're a mati some shot volume wise,

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Speaker 4: right exactly, And I mean, listen, he's embraced being the

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Speaker 4: star go two guys averaged over thirty seven minutes per

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Speaker 4: game fourteen shots without Topping in the lineup, which the

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Speaker 4: shots and the usage aren't necessarily the problem.

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Speaker 1: The problem is that there's also been an uptick in

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Speaker 1: his turnovers. He had a three game stretch where he

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Speaker 1: turned it over eighteen times, and Evan Mia like dives

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Speaker 1: into every single kind of stat that you can get into.

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Speaker 1: He graded him out as a D in terms of

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Speaker 1: the turnover issue. With him, he's in the eleventh percentile

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Speaker 1: of point guards in the entire country.

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Speaker 3: So he's gonna score the basketball.

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Speaker 1: He's gonna facilitate for his teammates, but he's also going

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Speaker 1: to help Akron keep it pretty close in terms of

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Speaker 1: the extra possession battle in this game.

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Speaker 3: So I agree.

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Speaker 1: I think if we can just get thirty five percent

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Speaker 1: from long range from the Zips, it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a sweat in the final four minutes of this game.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go ahead and take him on the

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Speaker 1: money line.

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Speaker 3: Beck same side.

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Speaker 2: I think John Gross he's been in three NCAA tournaments

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Speaker 2: in a row now this is his best Akron team.

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Speaker 2: And I think, you know, Mcastle has been so bizarre

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Speaker 2: about the tempo with this team this year, and at

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Speaker 2: times they've run, but they've really truncated the pace the

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Speaker 2: last eight games of the season, let's call it. And

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Speaker 2: I really think they're gonna miss top in here against

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Speaker 2: the Zips. When you look at Akron, this is not

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Speaker 2: gonna look like a MAC team. They've got dudes at

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Speaker 2: all five positions that can rebound the ball well, they

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Speaker 2: pass well, they can shoot, and I could see Akron

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Speaker 2: with their pace really wearing on Texas Tech. Texas Tech

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00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:29,520
Speaker 2: plays fewer bench minutes than anybody in the tournament. Only

337
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:31,520
Speaker 2: six percent of minutes come from the bench. It's like

338
00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:36,000
Speaker 2: nineteen minutes per game from the bench. And you get

339
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Speaker 2: those guys in that situation, and if they're in the

340
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Speaker 2: game late and they start believing Akron is at their

341
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Speaker 2: worst when they're a big favorite, they seem to get bored,

342
00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:44,959
Speaker 2: they get disinterested on defense. That will not be the

343
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Speaker 2: case here. Akron's showing up and they will look like

344
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Speaker 2: a much different team than when we saw them in

345
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Speaker 2: the MAC tournament. And Shama Scott and Tabari Johnson can

346
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Speaker 2: shoot it from the logo, the defense can match up well.

347
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Speaker 2: If they can guard the three point line just a

348
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Speaker 2: hair better than they had all season, I think Akron's

349
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Speaker 2: right there. So same side plus seven and a half.

350
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Speaker 3: Think of these locker rooms too.

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Speaker 1: Akron is ascending that this is their moment they win

352
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Speaker 1: the MAC, they win that tournament, especially after being down

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Speaker 1: that whole game, yes, and coming back and winning's got

354
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Speaker 1: to be just like you they gotta feel like they're

355
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Speaker 1: playing with some house money here, and then to flip

356
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Speaker 1: it for Texas Tech, they had the best collection of

357
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Speaker 1: wins in the entire country. They beat Arizona Duke and

358
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Speaker 1: I'm missing another one Houston, Like they clearly with top.

359
00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,439
Speaker 3: And had an opportunity to win the national championship.

360
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Speaker 1: And maybe they're probably saying all the right things and

361
00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:33,840
Speaker 1: Christian Anderson can play like an All American.

362
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 3: That's great.

363
00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:36,879
Speaker 1: They're not winning the national title, so that has to be,

364
00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,760
Speaker 1: you know, a thought at least in their heads, if

365
00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:41,800
Speaker 1: not being said in the locker room. So I think

366
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:45,040
Speaker 1: if things, you know, go against them, whether it's whistles

367
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Speaker 1: or a cold shooting streak in the first half, I

368
00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:49,720
Speaker 1: think it's going to be easy for them to get

369
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Speaker 1: down emotionally. Where Akron, you know, as as Stuck put it,

370
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Speaker 1: playing with house money.

371
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't mind the sprint call on Akron either

372
00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,520
Speaker 3: or advancing them. There's not three point variants in this game.

373
00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 3: Like I wouldn't. I wouldn't. I also wouldn't be sprised

374
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,159
Speaker 3: to tuck one by twenty like I said, But I

375
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:04,879
Speaker 3: like the zip. Sorry, let's go on to the next game.

376
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:07,280
Speaker 3: One thirty five Eastern on TNT, we have the one

377
00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:10,440
Speaker 3: sixteen matchup between Arizona and Long Island. Arizona's taking a

378
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:11,800
Speaker 3: little bit of money. You're up to a thirty and

379
00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:16,320
Speaker 3: a half point favorite over thenac Champ total one point

380
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 3: fifty and a half. These aren't my like I there

381
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:23,000
Speaker 3: are once in a while, like a one sixteen, Like

382
00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 3: I really like Sienna plus twenty nine and a half

383
00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:30,080
Speaker 3: stylistically low possession game, I don't. I'm not in love

384
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:34,239
Speaker 3: of laying thirty and a half, okay, just but if

385
00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:36,920
Speaker 3: I had to, I probably would. I won't be betting

386
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,480
Speaker 3: this game. This is a horrific matchup for Long Island.

387
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:41,679
Speaker 3: So when you look at Long Island, they have to

388
00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,760
Speaker 3: score in transition and at the rim. Well, let's look

389
00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:50,320
Speaker 3: at their opponent, Arizona rim defense fourth percentile allowed efficiency

390
00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:55,120
Speaker 3: in rim defense ninety ninth. Okay, well, maybe they can

391
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 3: get out in transition. I don't know how because they're

392
00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 3: not going to get any rebounds. But Arizona's transition d

393
00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 3: defense ninety eighth percentile. I don't know how Long Island

394
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 3: scores or gets a rebound or anything. So yeah, like

395
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:11,960
Speaker 3: a Long Island needs a force turnovers get out in

396
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:15,199
Speaker 3: transition they have like attacking wings. They also turn it

397
00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,399
Speaker 3: over a bunch, which is gonna few Arizona's transition. I

398
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 3: mean this is just a matter of like I'm close

399
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,640
Speaker 3: to the number, so like how much does Arizona care

400
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 3: at the end? Is there like a run late? Like

401
00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 3: I think the only time Arizona Arizona's given up two

402
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 3: ten ohero runs all year two kill shots. One was

403
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:37,000
Speaker 3: to Iowa State and then one was when they played

404
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,359
Speaker 3: it was super early this year. It was when they

405
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:45,600
Speaker 3: played Norfolk State, which they won ninety eight sixty one.

406
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:47,639
Speaker 3: But I think when Norfolks stay closed the game on

407
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,000
Speaker 3: like a fourteen zero run, so like something like that,

408
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 3: Like that's how long Island could cover this game. Like

409
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 3: Arizona's not even three point reliant, so like you can't

410
00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:58,880
Speaker 3: even say, like, oh, long Island can hang around if

411
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:02,800
Speaker 3: Arizona's not making is a bad matchup for Long Obviously

412
00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:04,639
Speaker 3: a one to sixteen is always gona be bad. But

413
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 3: like schematically this is ugly, so I would lean Arizona duck.

414
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 3: You have a strong take on this game. I do.

415
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 2: I like the under at one fifty one one fifty

416
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 2: and a half. We're still okay, and Long Island's team

417
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,199
Speaker 2: total under sixty one and a half. LU has no

418
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,920
Speaker 2: choice but to really truncate the pace down. Rod Strickland

419
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 2: is a good coach in the NC level and he's

420
00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 2: really built the Sharks team on defense. Trust me when

421
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:32,719
Speaker 2: I say offensively, they cannot shoot. Long Island cannot shoot threes.

422
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,320
Speaker 2: They shoot fewer threes than anybody in the country other

423
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:39,000
Speaker 2: than ten. They're three fifty fifth and three point percentage.

424
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 2: They're not going to be able to get to the

425
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 2: rim here. If you look at the guys that are

426
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 2: the prototypical scores on this Long Island team, Malachi Davis

427
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 2: and Jamal Fuller, they need to be able to procure

428
00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 2: effective paint touches not happening here. They're not going to

429
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 2: be able to make threes. There's just not a lot

430
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 2: of a lot of scoring prowess on this team. This

431
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 2: was This happened not just once or twice. This was

432
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 2: on numerous occasions for Long Island that they struggled in

433
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 2: league play against Stonehill, Wagner New Haven to surpass sixty points.

434
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,119
Speaker 2: I don't think there's any way that they even sniff

435
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:15,199
Speaker 2: that here. You already mentioned Arizona not being reliant on

436
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 2: the three, and I'd take it a step further that

437
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 2: it's preferred that they don't shoot the three, and they

438
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 2: just they don't shoot a lot of them. So we're

439
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:23,919
Speaker 2: not going to get the barrage of three point shooting

440
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 2: on either side here and then looking forward to about

441
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 2: with Utah State or Villanova Looming, I just don't see

442
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 2: any reason why Arizona is just putting the throttle down

443
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 2: when you get to the under eight time out in

444
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 2: the second half and they're up by twenty five. It's

445
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 2: low and slow, grind out the possessions, do everything other

446
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,359
Speaker 2: than take a shot clock violation. Long Island is really

447
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 2: really going to struggle. This is an atrocious matchup for them.

448
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 2: So team total under sixty one and a half full

449
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 2: game is also one I believe strongly is going under.

450
00:22:56,480 --> 00:23:00,239
Speaker 1: Cawbrey's got anything not Yeah, I got an exotic here

451
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: because it's difficult to find any value on the Arizona side.

452
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 1: But how about this Arizona to never trail in the

453
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,639
Speaker 1: game plus one oh five Long Island's two sixteen and

454
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 1: Ken Palm. Arizona played six teams in that neighborhood are worse.

455
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,159
Speaker 1: They went four and two in the never trail department. Now,

456
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 1: the race to ten, by the way, just for a

457
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 1: frame of reference, is Arizona minus seven hundred, race to fifteen,

458
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 1: Arizona minus twelve hundred, race of twenty, Arizona minus two thousand.

459
00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean Arizona's gonna win the tip, right exactly,

460
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 1: They're gonna win the tip. You get that first possession

461
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 1: and then you're just hoping that you don't give up

462
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:33,920
Speaker 1: a three to l Iu the other way. I feel

463
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 1: pretty good about this one. I was surprised to see it,

464
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:37,439
Speaker 1: you know, priced out of plus money.

465
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 3: Love that I will bet. I will bet some race

466
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 3: to ten on some long shots. I like doing that

467
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 3: every year. I know Mark Friend of the Show, and

468
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,440
Speaker 3: oh Jim Root does that looking down the board. Who

469
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 3: would I like first to ten? Santa Clair, Kentuck had

470
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 3: no idea just because start time Kentucky usually starts slow.

471
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:01,679
Speaker 3: Start on for Santa Clair, no clue. Accord is an

472
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:05,720
Speaker 3: interesting one because of the variants. UH Texas Tech might

473
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 3: also be a little bit rusty. Long Island. No thanks, right,

474
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 3: State Hofstra Definitely this is for Friday Slate Uh.

475
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:17,760
Speaker 2: How about cal Baptist, would's done you at all? If

476
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 2: our dude Dom goes off hits a couple threes early,

477
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 2: Kansas is traveling across the country. Cal Baptist is driving

478
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:24,679
Speaker 2: forty five minutes up there.

479
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 3: Not a bad one. Furman's not a bad one, and

480
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 3: neither is Queen's. Actually, like Queens might give up one hundred,

481
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:35,879
Speaker 3: but like Purdue, a little like just rusty earlier, Queens

482
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 3: hit some threes. It's not the worst one, like I

483
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 3: could see. I could see that being like ten eight

484
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 3: at the under sixteen, and then Perdue goes on like

485
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 3: an eighteen oh run or something. All right, well, we'll

486
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 3: talk about those games in a bit, but let's move

487
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 3: on to the I was gonna move on to the

488
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 3: Midwest Region three Virginia versus fourteen Wright State. This will

489
00:24:56,240 --> 00:25:01,479
Speaker 3: tip off at one fifty eastern on TV. Yes, this

490
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,440
Speaker 3: game will take place in the city of brotherly love,

491
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 3: of my hometown. I'm gonna be there. It's gonna be

492
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 3: it's gonna be a good sense. You're gonna be there,

493
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:11,399
Speaker 3: all right, I will be there eighteen in Virginia, favorite

494
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,480
Speaker 3: by eighteen and a half. Taking some early money from

495
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 3: open total one forty four and a half's come down

496
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 3: a bit. I think the Right State's in trouble here,

497
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 3: big time. There is. There's just I don't know how

498
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 3: they're gonna like their defense. Their half court defense is

499
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 3: not great. Now they aregue have that. They do grade

500
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 3: out well against the press. You're gonna see some press

501
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 3: from Virginia, which is a positive. But this is a

502
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 3: Right State offense that's very rim reliant and good luck

503
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 3: against Virginia. Like day grade out the ninety fourth percentile

504
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 3: at the rim twentieth percentile frequency. I mean, we just

505
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:56,399
Speaker 3: saw we just saw Boozer Cam Boozer go three of

506
00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 3: seventeen against Virginia. I am Right State's going to have

507
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 3: to make some threes here, which like they are capable

508
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 3: of doing. They don't really shoot threes often. They want

509
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:10,399
Speaker 3: to get to the rim, but they I mean they

510
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:12,239
Speaker 3: when they do, they make them a thirty six cent.

511
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 3: But it's in the horizon. You're getting a lot of

512
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 3: open looks. You're playing some zones. So I mean TJ.

513
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 3: Burch has been a really good story the ball State transfer.

514
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 3: But this is to me, this is Virginia or nothing.

515
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:28,239
Speaker 3: I think this is Virginia by twenty five plus. As

516
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 3: long as they're focused and hit a reasonable number of shots.

517
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 3: Let's see which one of the other hot take here,

518
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 3: Duck hot take from you here? What do you got?

519
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,200
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean tackle the sentiments. Right State team total

520
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,160
Speaker 2: under sixty two and a half, sixty three and a half.

521
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,919
Speaker 2: When you look at how Wright State profiles offensively, they

522
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:47,479
Speaker 2: try to get to the rim, they try to get

523
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 2: to the stripe. They need to procure paint touches to

524
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 2: get shots from in close. Absolutely not going to happen

525
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 2: against UVA.

526
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 1: Here.

527
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:57,040
Speaker 2: Look what those guys did in the middle against Duke

528
00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 2: and the ACC Championship game fourteen rejections between Ughana and

529
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 2: Johann Grunlow. You're not going to be able to penetrate

530
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 2: the lane. Right State's not going to get to the stripe.

531
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 2: They shoot fewer threes than anybody in the Horizon League,

532
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 2: and they have one player that averages two or more

533
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,640
Speaker 2: made three point shots per game on the season. It's

534
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 2: just not a schematic matchup that favors Right State having

535
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:26,919
Speaker 2: some good looks. I really could see Virginia turning this

536
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 2: into a defensive slog and if the WA who's are

537
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 2: up by twenty twenty two to twenty five. In the

538
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 2: second half, there's going to be no pace. It's one

539
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 2: and done for Right State, who will get eaten alive

540
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 2: on the boards.

541
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, strikes usually when they're playing teams on their level

542
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 3: as the boards. But that's just gonna be wiped out

543
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 3: by Virginia, which hurts.

544
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it would be a fun team against another opponent,

545
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 2: but this is schematically a poor matchup for Right State

546
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 2: and one where I just do not see this team

547
00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 2: getting into the mid sixties. I would say I would

548
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 2: go far as to say they may not break fifty five.

549
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,639
Speaker 2: So strong, strong value in my opinion on the Right

550
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 2: State team total under.

551
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 3: Calbury.

552
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:10,159
Speaker 1: Say anything that here sind you'll be here. Yeah, I'm

553
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,400
Speaker 1: going to lay the eighteen and a half. You guys

554
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 1: hit a lot of it. I mean, from a Cinderella perspective,

555
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,479
Speaker 1: I want you to bring someone to the table that's special.

556
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 1: You know, maybe you're great from three to take a

557
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 1: lot of them. Maybe there's a tempo difference. This Right

558
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 1: State team is like moderately slow. Do you play a

559
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:25,920
Speaker 1: unique defense?

560
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 3: Not really? Do you have a star player you can

561
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:28,359
Speaker 3: rely on?

562
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 1: Michael Cooper's good, but he also had seven single digit

563
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 1: performances in his past seventeen games, so if he disappears,

564
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 1: they're going to get absolute boat raced in this one.

565
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 1: And then the final piece of it is when UVA

566
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 1: had an opportunity to step on team's throats this year,

567
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 1: they did. They beat Ryder by thirty four, Hampton by

568
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 1: twenty eight, Marshall by twenty six, American by forty four.

569
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 1: This isn't like the Tony Bennett slow down and not score.

570
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 1: They're going to go over eighty. They poured it in

571
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 1: for eighty one plus in five games in you know,

572
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 1: the last month or so of the season, and a

573
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 1: lot of those big offensive performances came against tournament teams

574
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 1: like NC State and Miami Florida. So I think this

575
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 1: team is just way too good on both ends of

576
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: the floor. And I you know, given the history of

577
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 1: UVA early in the tournament and Otam of all people

578
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 1: would know about it, I don't think they're going to

579
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 1: sleepwalk into this one and let Wright State hang around.

580
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 1: I think they're going to hit some haymakers early and

581
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 1: then just build out a lead into the twenties in

582
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 1: the second half.

583
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 3: By moving on. About an hour after Wright State Virginua off,

584
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 3: Tennessee State and Iowa State kickoff in a two fifteen matchup.

585
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 3: This will take place in Saint Louis. Better believe there's

586
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 3: going to be some Iowa State support there. Iowa State

587
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 3: is a twenty four and a half point favorite total

588
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 3: one forty eight and a half. Tennessee State is a

589
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 3: led by Nolan Smith, very athletic team, Like they have

590
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 3: a ton of athleticism and you watch them, I'm like, wow,

591
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 3: this team, but this is not a great matchup for them.

592
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 3: It's I mean, this is a team like very aggressive defense.

593
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 3: They'll press, extend pressure, they'll trap, but the offense is

594
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 3: I mean, it's pretty ugly. It's like they want to

595
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 3: get to the rim, dribble drive. It's a lot of

596
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 3: iso mid range. And in order to beat the Iowa

597
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 3: State defense, you need to swing the ball and have

598
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 3: shooters hit threes on the weak side, and you need

599
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 3: to stress their dat. I mean, this Tennessee State offense

600
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 3: is three hundred and forty fifth in the country in

601
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 3: three point attempt to rate and when they do shoot them,

602
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 3: theyn't shoot them well. And they're three hundred and thirty

603
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 3: first in assist rate. Those that's not a good combination

604
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 3: against this Iowa State defense. So there's a lot of

605
00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 3: I mean, there are times Iowa State can turn it over.

606
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 3: I mean the Tennessee States that's their m It's like

607
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 3: pressure defense. That's how they want a lot of games

608
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 3: in the OVC. I would say, can be turnover a bits.

609
00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 3: Maybe that can get Tennessee State going and transition some.

610
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 3: But I also think that Iowa State's going to turn

611
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 3: over Tennessee State and they just don't. They're gonna foul

612
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 3: a ton. I mean, one of the paths to a

613
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 3: cover is Iowa State has been so bad at the

614
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 3: line here. And if you look historically, teams that shoot

615
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 3: seventy seven plus percent, if you just blindly bet them

616
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 3: over twenty years, you're at like sixty three percent against

617
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 3: the spread. Actually, let me, I'll tell you the exact

618
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 3: number past twenty years, teams shooting over seventy seven percent

619
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 3: from the line one on one, sixty one and two

620
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,959
Speaker 3: against the spread blindly betting teams that are elite from

621
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 3: the line for what it's that, you're sixty two point

622
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 3: three percent. For what it's worth. Teams that are over

623
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 3: seventy seven percent this year Iowa, Houston, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Vandy,

624
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 3: Saint Mary's. I would state it's not that they're three

625
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 3: hundred and fortieth in free throw percentage. In Tennessee State

626
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:02,840
Speaker 3: is going to fail a ton. So that is how

627
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 3: you lay twenty four and a half and don't cover

628
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 3: Iowa State. Miss is ten free throws and then they're

629
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 3: just turning the foules, turning to empty trips. So I

630
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 3: don't think I can lay twenty four and a half,

631
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 3: but I have no interest in Tennessee State. Easy pass

632
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 3: for me. I don't believe you guys have anything here.

633
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 3: Anything you want to add duck.

634
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 2: You know, I will say, if you're really trying to

635
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 2: squeeze a little value out of this game, I think

636
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 2: the fowls are coming and you should have plenty of

637
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 2: opportunities for Iowa State from the stripe. They don't make

638
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 2: a lot of them at their poor foul shooting team.

639
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 2: Tennessee State is going to provide a little pace here

640
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 2: and try to run with Iowa State. I could see

641
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:43,760
Speaker 2: it first half over. I don't want to bet a

642
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 2: second half over because Iowa State in the last six

643
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 2: minutes of games really throttles down, and if they're up

644
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 2: by twenty five or thirty points, they're not even attempting

645
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 2: to get serious good looks at pursuing more scoring opportunities,

646
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 2: which could also lead to a back door. But I

647
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 2: could see you first half over. I could see Iowa

648
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 2: State putting up forty five, forty eight points in the

649
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 2: first half and being up by fifteen to eighteen and

650
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 2: a half. So maybe a look there. But nothing's wrong, Mike,

651
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:13,600
Speaker 2: you do have anything here.

652
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: A part of me wanted to like mess around with

653
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 1: mom Chilovich's threes, maybe go under because it's a blowout,

654
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 1: And I thought to myself, well, he's so good at home,

655
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 1: you know, it's probably a bit of a drop off

656
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 1: when he shoots on the road. He still makes forty

657
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 1: four percent on the road. So I can't touch a

658
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 1: player prop in that regard. So this is just a

659
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 1: full pass for me. Let's move on to Hofstra Alabama.

660
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 1: One that's been in the news a lot. Alabama's down

661
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:39,440
Speaker 1: to an eleven and a half point favorite. I think

662
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 1: it opened it like ten and a half, got up

663
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 1: to fourteen, got bet down with the eight, and Holloway

664
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 1: Marijuana News had.

665
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 3: Cop pounds on him. I do not think he will

666
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 3: be playing here. Alabama currently eleven and a half point

667
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 3: favorite toital one fifty nine and a half. Mike, you

668
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 3: have a strong take here. You like the dog, Yeah,

669
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 3: Well to go with the dog here.

670
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 1: I think this is potentially just too much to overcome

671
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 1: for the Crimson side because Holloway being their second leading

672
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:09,839
Speaker 1: scorer but also their best three point shooter nearly forty

673
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 1: four percent from deep. That changes how you can play

674
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 1: and how you can help on you know, file on

675
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 1: and when he.

676
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 3: Drives the hoop.

677
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 1: And the question is is Hofstra position to pounce on

678
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 1: a potentially wounded Alabama team? I think absolutely, because they're

679
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,920
Speaker 1: on an eleven to one run, they're well balanced offensively,

680
00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:28,839
Speaker 1: they're rapidly improving defensively. You know, there was an early

681
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 1: episode I was on with Stuck and we talked about this.

682
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 1: This was a defense that just wasn't all that special

683
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 1: for the first half of the year, and when you

684
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 1: look at it since February first, they've been a top

685
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 1: five effective field goal They're making it very difficult.

686
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 3: To score at the rim.

687
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,839
Speaker 1: I think they have the makings of a real Cinderella

688
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 1: to not only win this game, but make it deep run.

689
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 1: Because essentially, when you look at it, you know, in

690
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 1: terms of their defensive efficiency since February first, they've risen

691
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:57,280
Speaker 1: all the way to thirty second and when they defend

692
00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 1: the three point line, well, you just don't have any

693
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 1: options in terms of.

694
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:01,399
Speaker 3: How to score on them.

695
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 1: They're up touching thirty second nationally and defending the three

696
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:07,280
Speaker 1: point shot. So if they are able to hold Bama,

697
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 1: let's say below eighty five points, do they have the

698
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:11,680
Speaker 1: guards to be able to get the.

699
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 3: Points, you know, to hang with them. I think they do.

700
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:15,840
Speaker 1: They got the CIA Player of the Year and Cruz Davis.

701
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:18,319
Speaker 1: They got his backcourt mate, Preston ed Mead. You know,

702
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 1: as a duo, they scored forty one points per game

703
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 1: through the CAAA tournament, So they're hot coming in at

704
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:26,800
Speaker 1: the right time. Cruises that multi level score and Edmead

705
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,720
Speaker 1: really got more confident with his shot as the season progressed.

706
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 1: He was a freshman, so it took some time for

707
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:33,840
Speaker 1: him to really take over. He made some big shots

708
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 1: in the last month of the season. And what we

709
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 1: know about this Alabama Crimson TI team, they're lackluster defensive outfit.

710
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 1: They're more interested in running and gunning than you know,

711
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 1: grinding out half court stops.

712
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 3: So I don't know.

713
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 1: I think this is all trending against Natoates, you know,

714
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 1: a team that I just I think they're trending in

715
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 1: the wrong direction. And when you look at it, if

716
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,240
Speaker 1: you can hold them below eighty five, certainly below eighty

717
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 1: because if you go below eighty.

718
00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:00,400
Speaker 3: On Bama, they're one and four straight up this season.

719
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 1: So it just becomes a situation where they don't know

720
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:05,760
Speaker 1: who they are or how to win. Necessarily a variety

721
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,879
Speaker 1: of games where speed Claxton's team I think can win

722
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,359
Speaker 1: in a couple different ways. It won't just require them

723
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:13,799
Speaker 1: to knock down fifteen to three pointers here. So I'm

724
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 1: gonna say who I thought was the class of the

725
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 1: CAA the whole year. They had that loll in January

726
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 1: where they lost five games. If anything, it just brought

727
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 1: them together.

728
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 3: It galvanized this team.

729
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,280
Speaker 1: And like I said, they're playing really the best defense

730
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:26,240
Speaker 1: of any mid major coming into the tournament.

731
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:29,359
Speaker 3: You know, rim defense has been the top three over

732
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:32,360
Speaker 3: the past month or so in the nation. They're going

733
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 3: to play drop coverage, which isn't great against the Bama

734
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 3: pick and roll, which is their ball hunters ninety seventh

735
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 3: percentile frequency, ninety nine percentile efficiency, but you got filon

736
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 3: ninety second percentile inefficiency Holloway ninety fifth. Dealing with both

737
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:53,800
Speaker 3: of them off of the dribble was going to be

738
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 3: a problem. Now there's a big drop off now to

739
00:36:56,840 --> 00:37:00,360
Speaker 3: Allen and Ritzel not having to worry about Holloway and

740
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:04,560
Speaker 3: shooting as well, especially like in transition. And it's just

741
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 3: and then the distraction of it all, right, like what

742
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 3: all of this that that Bama has to deal with

743
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 3: on top of all the other hooplah during the first

744
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 3: week of the tournament. Uh, that's potentially problematic. Yeah, Hobpster's

745
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,759
Speaker 3: this is like a jump shooting contest because Hopster is

746
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 3: not going to score at the rim, which is where

747
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 3: Bama's weak. But Bama is a shot volume clown like that.

748
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,839
Speaker 3: They are a screaming red flag of we're gonna get

749
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:38,800
Speaker 3: upset because they don't defend. They have major issues defending,

750
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 3: and they're a shot vying clown because they don't they foul.

751
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:43,439
Speaker 3: They will fil too much at times, but they don't

752
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 3: get on their defensive glass and they don't turn you

753
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:49,959
Speaker 3: over ever, So like I Hobster could win the shot

754
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 3: volume battle here and then this is just becomes a

755
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 3: jump shooting contest between the backcourts and Alabama lost one

756
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 3: of their best the week of the game high like

757
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:01,359
Speaker 3: the Pride Duck anything Dad.

758
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 2: You know, guys, I'll be honest with you. I don't

759
00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 2: know that I've won a Hofstra bet all seasons, so

760
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,320
Speaker 2: I will happily sit this one out.

761
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 3: Utah State Nova, I I mean Nova's These team teams

762
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 3: are trending like this, like Nova faded at the end

763
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 3: of the year. Big East was super weak. They lost Hodge,

764
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:27,959
Speaker 3: who I think they miss but I mean Utah State

765
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 3: that you can't zone Novas, so I doubt we stay.

766
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 3: They kind of a band of the zone at their

767
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 3: U and LV torched it will U. Utah State will

768
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 3: throw out some zone at times, go one through one.

769
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 3: I have no idea on this game, like I I

770
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 3: can't figure I can couldn't figure out the Mountain last

771
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 3: all year, and Utah State is an enigma to me.

772
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 3: I can never figure them out. They also can't hit

773
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 3: free throws whenever I bet them. But to wit you

774
00:38:56,280 --> 00:39:00,120
Speaker 3: go to hazl metrics. You pull up Utah State, they

775
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 3: are dead last in the country in consistency, which makes

776
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:06,319
Speaker 3: perfect sense to me. I cannot figure them out. I

777
00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 3: have nothing on this game. Doct you got anything here?

778
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:14,320
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a little bit of Utah State.

779
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 3: Too advanced, I know that, and the Mountain also, the

780
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 3: mount West has been atrocious shortly in the attorney like,

781
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 3: there's I could I could make cases for both sides

782
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:24,760
Speaker 3: so easily.

783
00:39:26,120 --> 00:39:30,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, Utah State has a small travel edge, they don't

784
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:32,840
Speaker 2: have to go as far, probably got in already. And

785
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,759
Speaker 2: you know Nova's going across the country. But there's so

786
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 2: Jekyl and Hyde Utah State and so inconsistent.

787
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 3: And yeah, this is in San Diego, by the way, Sorry.

788
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:47,360
Speaker 2: Against every Mountain West opponent. Their games were highly volatile.

789
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 2: You could see them win a game by twenty one night,

790
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:52,240
Speaker 2: lose by twenty the next night, getting blown up by UNLV.

791
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:55,279
Speaker 2: It was just bizarre. And so for that reason, I'm

792
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 2: going to pass on this one. I just really I

793
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 2: don't know if I'm getting a plus or C plus

794
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:01,479
Speaker 2: from Utah State here.

795
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's probably why I'll have Utah State advancing West Coast.

796
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 3: We're trending off Nova trending down and this is played

797
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:10,760
Speaker 3: in vaas. Utah State is very familiar with this arena.

798
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 3: Anything you want to add, yeah, I mean the familiarity

799
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 3: of the venue. I think they have the better guards

800
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 3: in this one, and Collins and no fans that travel. Yeah,

801
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:21,280
Speaker 3: so I agree.

802
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:24,839
Speaker 1: It's it's scary from a one game perspective because they've

803
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 1: been so Jackal and Hyde. But I'm if you like

804
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 1: Utah State, I think this is a potential for a

805
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,319
Speaker 1: ladder because if Nova doesn't get off the bus, they

806
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 1: could lose this one by double digits.

807
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:38,160
Speaker 3: I wouldn't be shocked at all. Tennessee will take on

808
00:40:38,160 --> 00:40:40,680
Speaker 3: the winner of Miami and sm U Duck. You're potentially

809
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:42,760
Speaker 3: interested in SMU If that's.

810
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:46,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, it'd be fun to sweat that one out Tomorrow night.

811
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 2: You and I have a ham sandwich bet on that.

812
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 2: I think, SMU, what's your number? I don't care whatever

813
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 2: we do.

814
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:57,920
Speaker 3: Half well, I took eight and a half, so we

815
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:01,440
Speaker 3: could both win that. Will you could land eight?

816
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:04,359
Speaker 2: Then we'll both push.

817
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 3: No, yeah, we'll both push, but we'll both be happy

818
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 3: as well.

819
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 2: Yeah we both Yeah, that could work. Let's head and

820
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 2: land on eight.

821
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:14,840
Speaker 3: That's retreat well unless and less cawberries you have another number. No,

822
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 3: I'm gonna let you guys have at it here, all right,

823
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 3: go ahead, Duck.

824
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:22,839
Speaker 2: Boopy Miller quick off the dribble and should be able

825
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 2: to get to the lane against Tennessee a little bit here.

826
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:28,759
Speaker 2: Jiron Pierre has made five or more threes and four

827
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 2: of his last five games. The guys in the middle,

828
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 2: Cemet and Jaden Toombs, I think really can compete well

829
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:41,600
Speaker 2: with Tennessee if they were to advance, and SMU has

830
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 2: top and talent. I mean, they took Camp, they took

831
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 2: Duke to the wire in Cameron Indoor. It was a

832
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:47,960
Speaker 2: three point game with two minutes to go. They were

833
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,920
Speaker 2: tied with Virginia on the road with ninety seconds to go.

834
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:54,759
Speaker 2: They've got wins over Louisville, unc A, and M I

835
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 2: think that if we've seen teams use the first four

836
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:00,720
Speaker 2: as a springboard in the past, and I think SMU

837
00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 2: can build a little confidence. I like the way their

838
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 2: defense has been playing. They really competed well in the

839
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 2: ACC tournament. Defensively, Yeah, I think sm you would have

840
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 2: a chance to beat Tennessee.

841
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 3: The problem is they've been how healthy is BJ Edwards.

842
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 3: Their defense is not. We don't know the same without them,

843
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:20,879
Speaker 3: so we'll find out some more there. They've been playing

844
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:24,279
Speaker 3: a lot of zone down the stretch to fix some

845
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:28,360
Speaker 3: of their defensive issues. The problem is if you zone Tennessee,

846
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:35,799
Speaker 3: Tennessee will have four hundred and forty seven offensive rebounds.

847
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 3: That's to the country. I'm interested to see what they

848
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 3: do schematically. But before we move on to the next time,

849
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 3: I'll throw to myself for a word. When our sponsor,

850
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863
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:39,799
Speaker 3: now to begin futures and cleared swaps. Trading involves significant

864
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 3: risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Event contracts are

865
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:47,480
Speaker 3: offered by Robinhood Derivatives LLC, a registered Futures Commission merchant

866
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:51,239
Speaker 3: and swap firm. All right, time to move on. I

867
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 3: do hope that that Tennessee Whoever game is good, because

868
00:43:55,640 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 3: then if not, there's always that lull where you you're

869
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:02,520
Speaker 3: like like, oh my god, why did I just wh

870
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:04,360
Speaker 3: did I bet that team earlier after you had a

871
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 3: bad afternoon, or you're like excited for the nights late.

872
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:10,239
Speaker 3: There's there could be a lull when there's just tack

873
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 3: game going on before we get to primetime. If it

874
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 3: is Miami of Ohio.

875
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 1: By the way, immens, I can't take a prop bet

876
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 1: any harder than that, Like, give me the points, give

877
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 1: me the rebounds, give me the combo. It's stuck in

878
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:24,240
Speaker 1: my head that performance by the Miami defense against Ohio,

879
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 1: that overtime game that they almost lost. Simmons had what

880
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:29,359
Speaker 1: thirty and nine in that game?

881
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:30,560
Speaker 3: What is it meant going to do to them?

882
00:44:30,680 --> 00:44:32,880
Speaker 1: That would be I'd be looking my chops for that

883
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 1: one in the player prop market.

884
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 3: It would be a dunk layup line for Tennessee. Iowa.

885
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 3: Clemson kick off the primetime slate six fifty Eastern on TNT.

886
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 3: It's the eight to nine matchup, which will take place

887
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 3: in Tampa, Florida. Iowa two to two and a half

888
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:56,239
Speaker 3: point favor depending on where you look, total down to

889
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:58,840
Speaker 3: one twenty eight and a half. This is a grinder game.

890
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 3: Neither team willow anything in transition. This will be played

891
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 3: in the half court. I like Iowa, I will my handicap.

892
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:11,440
Speaker 3: There is some looming three point regression for Iowa. They've

893
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:14,920
Speaker 3: been extremely unlucky of late, so that could help, but

894
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:20,160
Speaker 3: it's not my main reason for this handicap. The first

895
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 3: reason is Clemson's pick and roll defense against posing ball

896
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:31,280
Speaker 3: hnders twentieth percentile eighty second percentile frequency. That's bad news

897
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 3: against Bennett's starts. The second reason is in a half

898
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:38,880
Speaker 3: court grinder, right like, one of Clemson's advantages usually is

899
00:45:38,920 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 3: they suck the life out of games and they don't

900
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 3: let you get in transition, and they just that's Iowa's

901
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 3: perfectly fine with that. That's how Iowa wants to play,

902
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:52,040
Speaker 3: so in a half court grinder. I trust McCallum more

903
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:54,320
Speaker 3: and I trust Starts, the best player in the court

904
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:58,640
Speaker 3: to make a few more plays. Clemson also, as they

905
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,439
Speaker 3: lost one of their bigs to an injury last week

906
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 3: and Welling, I think that hurts here. And Clemson won't

907
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:08,440
Speaker 3: overwhelm Iowa with its athleticism, which is something where Iowa

908
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 3: is lacking in now. The one thing that gives me

909
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 3: a little bit of pause is if Clemson ups their

910
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 3: press rates. Like Clemson plays slow, but they press, you

911
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 3: just kind of slow the game down. At times. They

912
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 3: will extend pressure. And I mean on the year they pressed,

913
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:30,759
Speaker 3: I mean among the higher rates in the country. They're

914
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:32,880
Speaker 3: around fifteen percent at the time, which is eighty six percentile,

915
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:37,120
Speaker 3: and they were very good ninetieth percentile. And when they pressed,

916
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 3: they don't press to get speed you up. They pressed

917
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 3: to slow you down. That's why they're ninety eight percentile

918
00:46:43,560 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 3: on the last four seconds of the shot clock forced.

919
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 3: They have a ninety nine percent tile half court you know,

920
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 3: press to half court rate. But will that lead to

921
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:56,040
Speaker 3: some more turnovers against Iowa? Because I always been bad

922
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:58,600
Speaker 3: against the press, Like they're vulnerable there. They don't see it.

923
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 3: A ton of the Big Ten, but they struggled at

924
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:04,120
Speaker 3: Penn State with Maryland, and then in twenty plus press

925
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:07,040
Speaker 3: possessions against Michigan they score point five to five points

926
00:47:07,040 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 3: per possession. The worst team in the country against the

927
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:13,680
Speaker 3: press is Sacramento State. They score point six y nine

928
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:16,440
Speaker 3: points per possession. That's the one thing that gives me pause.

929
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:22,160
Speaker 3: But this will be close, it'll be lower scoring. I'm

930
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:24,880
Speaker 3: just gonna trust mcmadan and trust Starts to make enough shots.

931
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:27,440
Speaker 3: Give me Iowa douc.

932
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:30,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the under I think we'll see both

933
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:33,719
Speaker 2: of these offenses operate comfortably as we get deeper into

934
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:37,640
Speaker 2: the possession clock. Iowa is so buttoned up. Oftentimes teams

935
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 2: when the clock gets under five, they panic. They nobody

936
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 2: moves within the offense. It's four guys out standing around

937
00:47:44,680 --> 00:47:47,560
Speaker 2: waiting for someone to take a shot. But Iowa just

938
00:47:47,640 --> 00:47:50,120
Speaker 2: continues to run their stuff. And Bennett Starts is so

939
00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:52,200
Speaker 2: comfortable with the ball in his hands when the clock

940
00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:54,400
Speaker 2: gets under three, and he can get to twelve or

941
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:56,640
Speaker 2: fourteen feet and he makes those shots off. And so

942
00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:59,719
Speaker 2: I do think execution wise, Iowa will have a better

943
00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:01,960
Speaker 2: chance to do that. Both these teams are going to

944
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:05,359
Speaker 2: play slow, and we're going to have these grinded out,

945
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 2: elongated possessions. I think I think that favors Iowa. I

946
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:12,799
Speaker 2: really like the under. Now, if a team gets up

947
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:15,239
Speaker 2: by eight and the other the other group has to

948
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 2: play out of desperation, that that could blow up the under.

949
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 2: You know, Clemson can press and they can transpeat Iowa

950
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:22,640
Speaker 2: up a bit and then the Folo game starts or

951
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:25,399
Speaker 2: whatever else in the last four minutes. But I think

952
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 2: it's an under trend. I wouldn't be surprised if both

953
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:29,640
Speaker 2: these teams are in the very, very low sixties and

954
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:31,240
Speaker 2: Ioways should win this game.

955
00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 3: Also mentioned the free throw against spreadtis that Iowa qualifies

956
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:41,640
Speaker 3: lite free throw shooting team. Clemson at mad significantly worse.

957
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:45,520
Speaker 3: I think they're around seventy two percent. I would is

958
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:47,879
Speaker 3: at that seventy seven percent threshold, and in the game,

959
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 3: low scoring grinder could make all the difference. Copriy's anything

960
00:48:51,640 --> 00:48:52,319
Speaker 3: to add.

961
00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:56,880
Speaker 1: Sub one thirty total inside of one possession as a favorite,

962
00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:59,120
Speaker 1: and in the market you can get it fifteen to

963
00:48:59,120 --> 00:49:01,000
Speaker 1: one to go to overtime. I think this is one

964
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:03,600
Speaker 1: to take a shot at. There's not many games in

965
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 1: the round of sixty four that I think potentially could

966
00:49:06,080 --> 00:49:06,880
Speaker 1: be destined for OTI.

967
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:09,279
Speaker 3: This is one of them. Continuing on in the nights

968
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 3: late Northern Io with a twelve seed will take on

969
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:14,520
Speaker 3: the five seat Saint John's seven ten Eastern tip on

970
00:49:15,200 --> 00:49:19,840
Speaker 3: CBS in San Diego, California's We've got some travel here

971
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:23,000
Speaker 3: for both teams, you and I extended breaks. What are

972
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 3: they going to look like they were red hot? That's

973
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:28,160
Speaker 3: definitely a concern, but they should be well rested. They're

974
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:31,360
Speaker 3: well coached, catching ten and a half points here total

975
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:35,359
Speaker 3: one thirty one and a half. I love you and I.

976
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:38,680
Speaker 3: I look the athletic. Saint john stopped pressing at the

977
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:40,399
Speaker 3: end of the year. They've really reduced air press rates.

978
00:49:40,440 --> 00:49:42,200
Speaker 3: They could up it here and just say, like lean

979
00:49:42,200 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 3: into their athletic advantage. That could be the difference here.

980
00:49:45,560 --> 00:49:48,279
Speaker 3: And they could just be too powerful, too athletic. But

981
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:52,440
Speaker 3: I just think this is too good of a matchup

982
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:55,160
Speaker 3: for you and I and a nightmare matchup for Saint John's.

983
00:49:55,160 --> 00:49:59,840
Speaker 3: Now again, the athleticism and talent advantage could supersede that.

984
00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 3: And but here's what you and I does. They pack

985
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 3: it in on defense, which means they force you to

986
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 3: beat them from the outside. They're really good on the

987
00:50:07,680 --> 00:50:10,120
Speaker 3: defensive glass. On the offensive end of the floor, they're

988
00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:14,800
Speaker 3: very well connected. They're you know, have the senior laden

989
00:50:15,680 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 3: one of them. I think there were third in minutes

990
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:19,319
Speaker 3: continuity coming into the year. They had some injuries rough

991
00:50:19,360 --> 00:50:21,480
Speaker 3: in the year, so like they were, I think they're

992
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:23,400
Speaker 3: just underrated in general, which is why they made that

993
00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:26,200
Speaker 3: charge late in the season. They missed Tristan Smith for

994
00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:27,919
Speaker 3: a while and they were just a different team without them.

995
00:50:29,920 --> 00:50:34,399
Speaker 3: So but on the on the offensive end, they're never

996
00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:38,239
Speaker 3: going to try to get an offensive rebound because they're

997
00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 3: going to get back and prevent you transition at all costs.

998
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 3: I think the only team in the country to allow

999
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 3: a lower transition rate was Minnesota. So what do they do.

1000
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:53,279
Speaker 3: They make it difficult to score at the rim. They're

1001
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:54,960
Speaker 3: good on the defensive glass, they make you shoot from

1002
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:58,240
Speaker 3: the outside. They pack everything in. I mean talking elite

1003
00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:02,960
Speaker 3: rim defense, don't allow transition like that. These are the

1004
00:51:02,960 --> 00:51:07,000
Speaker 3: paths that Saint John's usually scores in and then they

1005
00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:09,319
Speaker 3: execute on the offensive end. They're not going to be

1006
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:12,359
Speaker 3: afraid of this team. I think it is a really

1007
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:15,279
Speaker 3: bad matchup for Saint John's now Saint John's. Maybe they

1008
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:17,680
Speaker 3: make their outside shots. They're not a good shooting team,

1009
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 3: but they're overdue. There's some interesting three point regression potential

1010
00:51:24,920 --> 00:51:30,160
Speaker 3: here on both sides. Like Saint John's has been ice

1011
00:51:30,320 --> 00:51:36,439
Speaker 3: cold from three of late, which scares me a bit.

1012
00:51:36,800 --> 00:51:41,279
Speaker 3: I mean, if you look since February first, Saint John's

1013
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:44,080
Speaker 3: has the largest decline in the tournament. They've shot twenty

1014
00:51:44,080 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 3: eight point seven percent. Before then they were thirty five

1015
00:51:47,040 --> 00:51:49,600
Speaker 3: point eight and they're gonna get looked so like that

1016
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 3: scares me a bit. But their defense has been extremely lucky.

1017
00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:58,320
Speaker 3: Their defense since February first, teams have shot twenty seven percent.

1018
00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 3: Before then they were at thirty four percent, So which

1019
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:06,760
Speaker 3: one gives that's very interesting. Northern Iowa has been shooting

1020
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:08,400
Speaker 3: the lights out of the wall, so maybe there's some

1021
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:13,160
Speaker 3: potential negative regression there. But there's that it kind of

1022
00:52:13,200 --> 00:52:15,640
Speaker 3: evens out on Saint John's side, But we'll see if

1023
00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 3: they can make shots that they do probably be problematic

1024
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 3: for Northern Iowa. That's not the strength of Saint John's.

1025
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:23,000
Speaker 3: That's what you want to force them to do here.

1026
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:27,359
Speaker 3: So I h I think it's a really really good

1027
00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:30,040
Speaker 3: matchup for Northern Iowa and then catching like double digits

1028
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:32,839
Speaker 3: in a game with a total that's you know, one

1029
00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:34,000
Speaker 3: thirty one and a half.

1030
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 1: You and I baby Mike, you love this as well. Yeah,

1031
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:40,520
Speaker 1: I'm going same game, Parlay. Give me the points and

1032
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 1: under one hundred and thirty two in this one. You

1033
00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:45,040
Speaker 1: made all the points that are salient in this one.

1034
00:52:45,120 --> 00:52:47,880
Speaker 1: Glacial pace from the Panthers three hundred and sixty third

1035
00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:50,080
Speaker 1: in the country. They got that pack line defense that

1036
00:52:50,160 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 1: allows them to rebound on the defensive glass at an

1037
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:56,440
Speaker 1: elite level. They rarely foul fifteen point five fouls per

1038
00:52:56,480 --> 00:52:59,360
Speaker 1: game that's thirty seventh in the country, and Tristan Smith

1039
00:52:59,400 --> 00:53:01,239
Speaker 1: also being back in the starting lineup. It's not just

1040
00:53:01,280 --> 00:53:03,799
Speaker 1: a boost their defense. Their fourth in effective field goal

1041
00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:07,720
Speaker 1: percentage offense since February eighth, so that's given them enough

1042
00:53:07,760 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 1: to be able to score to hang around. It's not

1043
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:12,040
Speaker 1: just enough to stop what Saint John's wants to do

1044
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:15,000
Speaker 1: in the half court, because really the Red Storm it's

1045
00:53:15,000 --> 00:53:17,840
Speaker 1: all about the extra scoring chances. They're plus five point

1046
00:53:17,880 --> 00:53:20,120
Speaker 1: five per game, that's top ten in the country and

1047
00:53:20,160 --> 00:53:24,040
Speaker 1: thirty fourth in fast breakpoints. Northern Iowa is perfectly equipped

1048
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:27,160
Speaker 1: to limit them. In both departments. You also got Ben Jacobson,

1049
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 1: a five time Missouri Valley Coach of the Year with

1050
00:53:30,040 --> 00:53:33,360
Speaker 1: four NCAA tournament wins. This is ninth game coaching in

1051
00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:35,480
Speaker 1: the tournament, so he's not going to be thrown off

1052
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 1: by this venue. And the venue too, it's not a

1053
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:41,880
Speaker 1: good travel spot to go from MSG game of the

1054
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:45,359
Speaker 1: year energy to maybe a sleepy start. Maybe Northern Iowa

1055
00:53:45,440 --> 00:53:47,719
Speaker 1: can be up, you know, twenty fifteen, you know, at

1056
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:49,520
Speaker 1: the eight minute timeout in the first half.

1057
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:51,920
Speaker 3: But it's going to feel like ten in this game exactly.

1058
00:53:51,960 --> 00:53:54,640
Speaker 1: It's just going to be one of those games that

1059
00:53:54,680 --> 00:53:57,600
Speaker 1: Saint John's needs to create their own energy and juice,

1060
00:53:57,840 --> 00:53:59,319
Speaker 1: and You and I is going to do everything they

1061
00:53:59,360 --> 00:54:01,719
Speaker 1: can to throw old water on it. So eleven and

1062
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:04,360
Speaker 1: a half I think was too much, you know, grabbing

1063
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:05,400
Speaker 1: it at the top of the market.

1064
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:07,359
Speaker 3: I still like it at nine and a half, ten

1065
00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:09,040
Speaker 3: and one thirty two.

1066
00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:13,040
Speaker 1: I just don't necessarily see even if You and I

1067
00:54:13,160 --> 00:54:15,960
Speaker 1: falls down by eight to ten points, they're not all

1068
00:54:16,000 --> 00:54:17,719
Speaker 1: of a sudden going to abandon their game plan and

1069
00:54:17,760 --> 00:54:20,200
Speaker 1: start pushing it and start firing threes left and right.

1070
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:23,400
Speaker 1: So I think this is another correlated option from a

1071
00:54:23,440 --> 00:54:26,200
Speaker 1: same game parlay perspective, plus two sixty I think is

1072
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:26,879
Speaker 1: plenty of value.

1073
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:29,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, and there are a part of me also thinks

1074
00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:32,759
Speaker 3: that like Saint John's might be a little bit overrated here,

1075
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:36,160
Speaker 3: like like peak of the market after what they did

1076
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:40,480
Speaker 3: in the Garden in the Big East tournament. But I

1077
00:54:40,480 --> 00:54:44,759
Speaker 3: think Yukon, like I think Villanova, is barely a tournament team.

1078
00:54:44,920 --> 00:54:47,440
Speaker 3: They deserve to get in, but like they are not great.

1079
00:54:48,120 --> 00:54:51,200
Speaker 1: I know that Seton Hall isn't an exact comp by

1080
00:54:51,239 --> 00:54:54,000
Speaker 1: any stretch, but it was sixty five sixty. That feels

1081
00:54:54,080 --> 00:54:56,319
Speaker 1: like this kind of game for the Johnny's, like they're

1082
00:54:56,360 --> 00:54:57,719
Speaker 1: gonna be happy to get out of it. I think

1083
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:00,440
Speaker 1: they have a better chance to play there version of

1084
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:03,920
Speaker 1: Saint John's basketball and win going away against Kansas than

1085
00:55:03,960 --> 00:55:04,880
Speaker 1: they do against you and I.

1086
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 3: Yep. But the Big East might be extremely like really

1087
00:55:10,080 --> 00:55:12,919
Speaker 3: really bad this year, which is like propping up Saint

1088
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 3: John's a bit because Saint John's, I mean, can we

1089
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:19,600
Speaker 3: look at like, yeah, they look great in the Big East.

1090
00:55:19,640 --> 00:55:26,400
Speaker 3: They're on fire out of conference. They lost to Auburn

1091
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:30,239
Speaker 3: on a neutral, they lost at home to Alabama, they

1092
00:55:30,239 --> 00:55:36,600
Speaker 3: lost to Kentucky on a neutral. Their best they lost

1093
00:55:36,560 --> 00:55:39,120
Speaker 3: to Iowa State on a neutral. No, granted they were

1094
00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:41,439
Speaker 3: right in that game, but their best non conference win

1095
00:55:43,440 --> 00:55:47,600
Speaker 3: was on a neutral against Baylor. So like, they didn't

1096
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:50,360
Speaker 3: light the world on fire in the non con and

1097
00:55:50,400 --> 00:55:53,120
Speaker 3: then they took advantage of a historically bad Big East

1098
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:54,680
Speaker 3: stuck any anyone add.

1099
00:55:55,560 --> 00:55:57,640
Speaker 2: You know, I was initially worried about you and I

1100
00:55:57,840 --> 00:56:00,480
Speaker 2: being out athleted by Saint John's and the press, and

1101
00:56:00,480 --> 00:56:02,360
Speaker 2: then I looked further into it. And while the Missouri

1102
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:04,120
Speaker 2: Valley is not a league that you see a lot

1103
00:56:04,120 --> 00:56:07,000
Speaker 2: of press in, you and I have seen their fair

1104
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:10,360
Speaker 2: share of it. They saw it against Murray State. Bradley

1105
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:15,280
Speaker 2: does that. They've seen it right, They've even Valparaiso pressed

1106
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 2: them a hair higher than you might have ever suspected

1107
00:56:17,600 --> 00:56:21,080
Speaker 2: that in their games against Valparaiso. So Scott Naggy did

1108
00:56:21,080 --> 00:56:23,759
Speaker 2: a little bit of that with Southern Illinois. So you

1109
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:27,400
Speaker 2: and I has seen it, and they broke the press

1110
00:56:27,440 --> 00:56:31,200
Speaker 2: fairly well against those teams. And to support the under position.

1111
00:56:31,920 --> 00:56:33,759
Speaker 2: When you and I breaks the press, even if they

1112
00:56:33,760 --> 00:56:36,400
Speaker 2: have a man advantage in the front court, they're holding

1113
00:56:36,400 --> 00:56:38,600
Speaker 2: the ball back and they're waiting for their guys to

1114
00:56:38,600 --> 00:56:40,200
Speaker 2: get up into the front court and then they're setting

1115
00:56:40,280 --> 00:56:40,839
Speaker 2: up half court.

1116
00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:43,280
Speaker 3: So yeah, had a lot of joints when they've been pressed.

1117
00:56:43,320 --> 00:56:47,799
Speaker 3: Eighty seven percent of the time they it became a

1118
00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:52,560
Speaker 3: half court possession. Thirteen percent of the time they tried

1119
00:56:52,600 --> 00:56:53,480
Speaker 3: to score in transition.

1120
00:56:54,880 --> 00:56:57,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, and in the NCAA tournament, when you're playing on

1121
00:56:57,120 --> 00:57:00,000
Speaker 2: that court with the NCAA logo and it's an unfamily

1122
00:57:00,120 --> 00:57:02,120
Speaker 2: your venue, they're pulling it out and waiting for their

1123
00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:04,120
Speaker 2: guys to get down. It's gonna be low and slow here.

1124
00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:08,319
Speaker 2: So I can definitely see the position on on either

1125
00:57:08,360 --> 00:57:10,560
Speaker 2: the under or on Northern Iowa.

1126
00:57:12,520 --> 00:57:15,359
Speaker 3: All right, let's yeah, I like, you know, anything down

1127
00:57:15,360 --> 00:57:18,560
Speaker 3: to nine, you'll know right away if they can't handle

1128
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:21,400
Speaker 3: the athleticism. But and then if Saint John's is making threes,

1129
00:57:21,440 --> 00:57:24,280
Speaker 3: like just tip his cap. Uh, you just gotta do

1130
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:27,240
Speaker 3: that when you back college basketball, Like a Sanding comes

1131
00:57:27,280 --> 00:57:28,800
Speaker 3: in and he gets five to three, He's like, all right,

1132
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:38,440
Speaker 3: move on, Uh, let's head to UCF UCLA. That's a

1133
00:57:38,440 --> 00:57:40,240
Speaker 3: tough one to talk about because we just don't know

1134
00:57:40,840 --> 00:57:44,080
Speaker 3: how healthy I think Dent's gonna be, Okay, Mick said,

1135
00:57:44,120 --> 00:57:46,200
Speaker 3: Dent's okay, but Billadeau, he said he needs a couple

1136
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 3: of days. I don't know what that means. He's obviously

1137
00:57:48,440 --> 00:57:52,560
Speaker 3: super important for a surging UCLA team. I think UCF

1138
00:57:52,600 --> 00:57:55,480
Speaker 3: can do some damage on the glass. They've been running

1139
00:57:55,600 --> 00:57:57,400
Speaker 3: very poor from three like that, and you're gonna get

1140
00:57:57,400 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 3: three looks from UCLA. I could see them finally finding

1141
00:57:59,720 --> 00:58:02,120
Speaker 3: their I mean, what were they like three of twenty

1142
00:58:02,120 --> 00:58:04,439
Speaker 3: three against Cincy and then like three of twenty agains.

1143
00:58:04,440 --> 00:58:06,400
Speaker 3: I mean, they couldn't make a three all weekend in

1144
00:58:06,440 --> 00:58:11,640
Speaker 3: the Big twelve tournament. So at the current number, I

1145
00:58:11,680 --> 00:58:16,000
Speaker 3: would lean UCF. UCF. Maybe in a money line shot,

1146
00:58:16,240 --> 00:58:19,560
Speaker 3: you could. I'm still conflicted on this game just because

1147
00:58:19,560 --> 00:58:22,000
Speaker 3: of the injury uncertainty. Bill know is that important? I

1148
00:58:22,040 --> 00:58:28,840
Speaker 3: think overall? But if UCLI is healthy, man, they could

1149
00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 3: do some damage in this bracket. I just don't know enough.

1150
00:58:34,520 --> 00:58:36,760
Speaker 3: So this is a as of right now passed for me.

1151
00:58:37,320 --> 00:58:38,840
Speaker 3: You guys don't really have anything here. Do you want

1152
00:58:38,880 --> 00:58:41,160
Speaker 3: to have? Mike Now, I'm good.

1153
00:58:41,160 --> 00:58:43,280
Speaker 1: I'm putting myself in mic cronin time out and so

1154
00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:45,720
Speaker 1: I can finally get a game right. Even in the

1155
00:58:45,720 --> 00:58:48,440
Speaker 1: Big ten tournament, I got hooked with Purdue laying the

1156
00:58:48,480 --> 00:58:51,480
Speaker 1: seven and a half. So I've been able to figure

1157
00:58:51,640 --> 00:58:52,320
Speaker 1: out UCLA.

1158
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:57,600
Speaker 2: But you know, if you look at the travel and

1159
00:58:57,600 --> 00:59:00,920
Speaker 2: they've got to go to Philly and you d heading

1160
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:03,760
Speaker 2: east of the Mountain time zone, it's been poor this year.

1161
00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:08,280
Speaker 2: It's looked really, really jerky for UCLA, and Central Florida

1162
00:59:08,400 --> 00:59:12,440
Speaker 2: has athletes that can absolutely compete in this game. I

1163
00:59:12,480 --> 00:59:15,080
Speaker 2: don't really have a real robust take, but I'm not

1164
00:59:15,200 --> 00:59:16,760
Speaker 2: laying in this spot for sure.

1165
00:59:17,160 --> 00:59:18,880
Speaker 3: All right, before we move on, I do have to

1166
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:20,360
Speaker 3: ask you us a question. What is March known for

1167
00:59:20,960 --> 00:59:24,400
Speaker 3: Kyle hoops? Obviously spring training baseball? Yeah, that too, but

1168
00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:26,400
Speaker 3: it's also known as the time and we have one

1169
00:59:26,400 --> 00:59:28,720
Speaker 3: of the absolute best deals on Action Pro of the

1170
00:59:28,880 --> 00:59:33,280
Speaker 3: entire year. So head over to Action network dot com

1171
00:59:33,280 --> 00:59:36,800
Speaker 3: slash pro to get six months of pro for forty

1172
00:59:36,880 --> 00:59:39,760
Speaker 3: nine to ninety nine. Get in now for access to

1173
00:59:39,840 --> 00:59:41,840
Speaker 3: all of our picks as soon as we logged them

1174
00:59:41,840 --> 00:59:43,800
Speaker 3: in the app. No more waiting thirty minutes and getting

1175
00:59:44,000 --> 00:59:48,440
Speaker 3: potentially stale lines. We'll also have NCAA player props powered

1176
00:59:48,480 --> 00:59:51,920
Speaker 3: by our analytics team that smash it every tournament. Shout

1177
00:59:51,920 --> 00:59:54,520
Speaker 3: out Nick Giffin and Sean Kerner again. That's Action Network

1178
00:59:54,560 --> 00:59:57,120
Speaker 3: dot Com slash pro to get yourself signed up today.

1179
00:59:57,560 --> 01:00:01,520
Speaker 3: Player props alone make that deal super worth it. All right,

1180
01:00:01,600 --> 01:00:04,920
Speaker 3: let's move on to let's go Queen. We're gonna talk

1181
01:00:04,920 --> 01:00:09,440
Speaker 3: a little Queens Perdue. Perdue obviously surging Purdue also, for

1182
01:00:09,480 --> 01:00:11,840
Speaker 3: what it's worth, the best neutral site team in the country.

1183
01:00:12,360 --> 01:00:14,040
Speaker 3: Like they've had some problems at home, but that I

1184
01:00:14,120 --> 01:00:15,680
Speaker 3: mean look good. They did it on neutral They ran

1185
01:00:15,760 --> 01:00:17,640
Speaker 3: through the Big Ten tournament. They beat They blew out

1186
01:00:17,680 --> 01:00:19,760
Speaker 3: a healthy Texas Tech team by thirty. They beat Auburn

1187
01:00:19,800 --> 01:00:22,600
Speaker 3: by thirty on the neutral court. I mean this team

1188
01:00:22,640 --> 01:00:26,280
Speaker 3: on neutral courts. They are number one in overall efficiency

1189
01:00:26,920 --> 01:00:29,480
Speaker 3: in neutral court games. This game will tip at seven

1190
01:00:29,560 --> 01:00:33,040
Speaker 3: thirty Eastern on True TV. Perdue. The two seed is

1191
01:00:33,480 --> 01:00:37,520
Speaker 3: a sizeable favor twenty five and a half points over

1192
01:00:37,640 --> 01:00:40,160
Speaker 3: Queens total one sixty three and a half's come down

1193
01:00:40,200 --> 01:00:43,320
Speaker 3: a bit, just a bit surprising to me. Queens runs

1194
01:00:43,360 --> 01:00:47,920
Speaker 3: beautiful offense. They have shooters all over, just great cutting

1195
01:00:48,280 --> 01:00:50,920
Speaker 3: motion like that. They run great offense. The problem is

1196
01:00:51,600 --> 01:00:57,280
Speaker 3: their defense is an absolute sieve. I've spent I don't know,

1197
01:00:57,320 --> 01:01:00,480
Speaker 3: way too much time. I'm spending hours upon hours and

1198
01:01:00,560 --> 01:01:02,840
Speaker 3: slept in three days going through every one of these games.

1199
01:01:03,000 --> 01:01:04,440
Speaker 3: The amount of time I spent on skin. I tried

1200
01:01:04,480 --> 01:01:07,680
Speaker 3: to find one thing that Queens does that could like

1201
01:01:07,760 --> 01:01:09,280
Speaker 3: I'm like, oh, this is how they could get a stop.

1202
01:01:09,280 --> 01:01:11,320
Speaker 3: I don't know how they get a stop. I mean,

1203
01:01:11,320 --> 01:01:14,760
Speaker 3: their defense is embarrassing. I mean, just to illustrate how

1204
01:01:14,800 --> 01:01:21,400
Speaker 3: bad it is, Queen's played five Power Conference teams, only

1205
01:01:21,440 --> 01:01:24,120
Speaker 3: three of them went to the turn. Of the three

1206
01:01:24,120 --> 01:01:26,160
Speaker 3: of the five tournament teams, they allowed an average of

1207
01:01:26,160 --> 01:01:29,920
Speaker 3: one hundred and two points six points per game. Everyone

1208
01:01:29,960 --> 01:01:35,280
Speaker 3: cleared ninety four. I mean, perdue. It's even if Purdue's

1209
01:01:35,280 --> 01:01:37,200
Speaker 3: off from three, They're gonna get every rebound. It's gonna

1210
01:01:37,200 --> 01:01:38,880
Speaker 3: be a layup line. I mean, I don't know how

1211
01:01:38,920 --> 01:01:41,600
Speaker 3: Queens gets any stops. Now, their offense could maybe cause

1212
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:44,800
Speaker 3: some issues for Purdue with their bigs, you know, and

1213
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:46,960
Speaker 3: they have some guys who can shoot, but they just

1214
01:01:46,960 --> 01:01:49,400
Speaker 3: can't get any stops. I know, Matt Painter is oh

1215
01:01:49,440 --> 01:01:51,680
Speaker 3: and one straight up as a favorite in this range

1216
01:01:51,800 --> 01:01:54,600
Speaker 3: in the tournament, no one saw the fairly Dickinson upset coming.

1217
01:01:54,800 --> 01:01:56,560
Speaker 3: I will say that sometimes you just never know in

1218
01:01:56,560 --> 01:02:00,000
Speaker 3: this sport. But this is the best off the Queens

1219
01:02:00,320 --> 01:02:02,840
Speaker 3: gave up by one hundred. I mean, it's shocking how

1220
01:02:02,880 --> 01:02:07,640
Speaker 3: bad their defenses. Queens gave up to the non turnament,

1221
01:02:07,640 --> 01:02:10,200
Speaker 3: the non tournament power conference teams they played. They played

1222
01:02:10,200 --> 01:02:12,320
Speaker 3: Auburn they have one hundred and six. They played Wake

1223
01:02:12,360 --> 01:02:15,160
Speaker 3: Farest they have one hundred and eleven. Now they're playing

1224
01:02:15,200 --> 01:02:19,360
Speaker 3: the number one most efficient offense in the country. So

1225
01:02:19,440 --> 01:02:23,560
Speaker 3: I mean, produe can name it here. I do think

1226
01:02:23,560 --> 01:02:25,720
Speaker 3: the Queens can have some offensive success, so I don't know.

1227
01:02:25,880 --> 01:02:30,919
Speaker 3: I lean over here, even though thisunder is taking some money. Duck,

1228
01:02:30,960 --> 01:02:31,760
Speaker 3: you got anything here?

1229
01:02:32,800 --> 01:02:35,160
Speaker 2: It's like you read my notes Forbade all those scores

1230
01:02:35,200 --> 01:02:37,680
Speaker 2: I was gonna outline, Queens is gonna get incinerated on

1231
01:02:37,720 --> 01:02:41,280
Speaker 2: the offensive boards. Produce should have wide open shots, plenty

1232
01:02:41,320 --> 01:02:43,880
Speaker 2: of trips to the strike, plenty of possessions to get

1233
01:02:43,920 --> 01:02:46,919
Speaker 2: over their team total, as well as Queens is gonna

1234
01:02:46,920 --> 01:02:49,360
Speaker 2: play really fast. I think Queens can be more efficient

1235
01:02:49,400 --> 01:02:53,840
Speaker 2: offensively in this game than you might think. I like

1236
01:02:53,960 --> 01:02:56,360
Speaker 2: the over, I like produced team total over I won't

1237
01:02:56,360 --> 01:02:57,840
Speaker 2: be stunted at all. If this is one hundred and

1238
01:02:57,880 --> 01:02:58,680
Speaker 2: ten to eighty five.

1239
01:03:00,120 --> 01:03:02,680
Speaker 3: You got a prop here looking at him like I do.

1240
01:03:02,960 --> 01:03:05,640
Speaker 1: I mean, everyone has been watching Purdue through the Big

1241
01:03:05,640 --> 01:03:09,160
Speaker 1: Ten tournament knows that Oscar Cluff either he got healthy,

1242
01:03:09,280 --> 01:03:10,400
Speaker 1: he got in better shape.

1243
01:03:10,400 --> 01:03:12,920
Speaker 3: They just started using him more. Something great.

1244
01:03:13,400 --> 01:03:16,160
Speaker 1: He looks really good and he averaged seventeen to ten

1245
01:03:16,200 --> 01:03:19,120
Speaker 1: across those games in the Big Ten tournament. He's going

1246
01:03:19,200 --> 01:03:22,240
Speaker 1: to eat here and the combo on points and rebounds,

1247
01:03:22,400 --> 01:03:24,920
Speaker 1: if it's anything south of twenty three, I'm on the

1248
01:03:24,960 --> 01:03:27,120
Speaker 1: over here. You talked about all those games that Queen's

1249
01:03:27,160 --> 01:03:30,400
Speaker 1: got absolutely bombed by Power Conference teams. How about their

1250
01:03:30,400 --> 01:03:32,720
Speaker 1: game against Nova, Because if you're looking for a comp

1251
01:03:32,840 --> 01:03:36,760
Speaker 1: Duke Brennan, they're big. Seventeen points, that's fine, twenty rebounds,

1252
01:03:37,120 --> 01:03:40,840
Speaker 1: I'm gonna see something. It's definitely a double double for Kluff.

1253
01:03:41,080 --> 01:03:43,640
Speaker 1: And I think that Queen's can score enough that he's

1254
01:03:43,640 --> 01:03:45,800
Speaker 1: not heading to the bench very early in the second

1255
01:03:45,880 --> 01:03:48,040
Speaker 1: half and then you know, not to be seen again

1256
01:03:48,040 --> 01:03:49,760
Speaker 1: for the rest of the game. If he can get

1257
01:03:49,760 --> 01:03:51,880
Speaker 1: some solid minutes in this game, I think it'll be

1258
01:03:51,920 --> 01:03:54,320
Speaker 1: easy for him to cruise past, you know, the mid twenties.

1259
01:03:54,320 --> 01:03:57,040
Speaker 3: In terms of this combo. Prop Payter also has to

1260
01:03:57,080 --> 01:03:59,720
Speaker 3: take this seriously. You can't risk losing to you know,

1261
01:04:00,000 --> 01:04:01,400
Speaker 3: you can't pull your guys too.

1262
01:04:01,280 --> 01:04:03,680
Speaker 2: Soon, not after what happened in priors.

1263
01:04:03,960 --> 01:04:09,440
Speaker 3: Yeah. So, by the way, in Painter in the tournament,

1264
01:04:09,560 --> 01:04:11,200
Speaker 3: one of the best of all time against the spread,

1265
01:04:11,280 --> 01:04:15,160
Speaker 3: twenty seven and fourteen doesn't get enough credit. No, Hurley,

1266
01:04:15,240 --> 01:04:17,680
Speaker 3: Hurley's seventeen and three. He's covered fourteen straight. We'll get

1267
01:04:17,680 --> 01:04:20,320
Speaker 3: to that game in a bit. There's also I don't know.

1268
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:22,640
Speaker 3: I haven't seen many people talk about this, did I.

1269
01:04:22,640 --> 01:04:26,040
Speaker 3: I haven't even dug into it. But the TKR shoulder.

1270
01:04:26,080 --> 01:04:28,280
Speaker 3: Is that an issue again? That's one thing I'm worried

1271
01:04:28,320 --> 01:04:29,920
Speaker 3: about with Purdue, Like at the very end of the game,

1272
01:04:30,120 --> 01:04:31,880
Speaker 3: he heard it, and that's been an issue in the past.

1273
01:04:32,440 --> 01:04:36,160
Speaker 3: That's another potential for your you know, if they don't

1274
01:04:36,160 --> 01:04:38,480
Speaker 3: push him as hard, if it is actually an issue,

1275
01:04:38,640 --> 01:04:43,640
Speaker 3: that's something else for your clough prop. But I haven't

1276
01:04:43,680 --> 01:04:46,880
Speaker 3: seen anything. To be frank, I didn't really dig into

1277
01:04:46,880 --> 01:04:51,439
Speaker 3: an update, But I haven't seen an update. He said

1278
01:04:51,480 --> 01:04:53,840
Speaker 3: it's fine in the postgame interview, but I don't it's

1279
01:04:53,840 --> 01:04:56,440
Speaker 3: been an issue in the past. Produce shouldn't be able

1280
01:04:56,440 --> 01:04:58,960
Speaker 3: to name their points. I mean, we're not going to

1281
01:04:59,000 --> 01:05:02,720
Speaker 3: talk about this game Florida. Yeah, we'll take on the

1282
01:05:02,800 --> 01:05:07,720
Speaker 3: winner of Prairie View and Lehigh. You're gonna have an

1283
01:05:07,720 --> 01:05:11,960
Speaker 3: angry Florida team, an angry staff. Bet Florida on the open.

1284
01:05:12,320 --> 01:05:16,600
Speaker 3: I think they'll win by like forty five here. That

1285
01:05:16,640 --> 01:05:19,480
Speaker 3: one's gonna get ugly. Who has a better chance of

1286
01:05:19,520 --> 01:05:24,160
Speaker 3: upsetting Florida, Clemson or Iowa Neither? Yeah, I don't like

1287
01:05:24,200 --> 01:05:28,280
Speaker 3: either of those matchups. I mean the Bigs ioas Bigs

1288
01:05:28,320 --> 01:05:32,760
Speaker 3: will get eaten alive. That'll be bad. And then Clemson

1289
01:05:32,960 --> 01:05:34,840
Speaker 3: that's what they'll miss again. I'll miss Willing. They just

1290
01:05:34,840 --> 01:05:39,320
Speaker 3: don't have the offense. Yeah, hard to see Florida getting

1291
01:05:39,360 --> 01:05:44,560
Speaker 3: upset there. Start's gotta go for like forty eight. All right,

1292
01:05:44,760 --> 01:05:49,480
Speaker 3: let's move on to the night's late cal Baptist Kansas

1293
01:05:50,560 --> 01:05:54,440
Speaker 3: Kansas fourteen and a half point favorite against the Whack

1294
01:05:54,560 --> 01:06:00,680
Speaker 3: Champs led by Dom Daniels, the electric point guard. So

1295
01:06:02,000 --> 01:06:03,360
Speaker 3: so happy to see him go to the dance like

1296
01:06:03,400 --> 01:06:06,040
Speaker 3: he could have transferred easily, decided to stay loyal, and

1297
01:06:06,080 --> 01:06:09,960
Speaker 3: he's rewarded with attorney experience. It's a guy one of

1298
01:06:10,000 --> 01:06:12,800
Speaker 3: the heaviest usage players in the country. I'll pick one

1299
01:06:12,840 --> 01:06:14,400
Speaker 3: of the heaviest pick and roll offense, Like it's just

1300
01:06:14,400 --> 01:06:18,880
Speaker 3: Don Daniel's spamming pick and roll. He doesn't have much

1301
01:06:18,920 --> 01:06:23,080
Speaker 3: help around him. They do have some size inside, but

1302
01:06:23,400 --> 01:06:26,280
Speaker 3: if you can take him away, it can get ugly

1303
01:06:26,440 --> 01:06:31,560
Speaker 3: for the cal Baptist offense. And I think Kansas their

1304
01:06:31,560 --> 01:06:33,160
Speaker 3: defense should be focused to here. There's a lot there's

1305
01:06:33,200 --> 01:06:34,880
Speaker 3: a trend out there that you'll hear, like teams off

1306
01:06:34,880 --> 01:06:37,320
Speaker 3: a twenty plus point lost in the conference tournament playing

1307
01:06:37,560 --> 01:06:40,400
Speaker 3: in the first game of the NCAA tournament historically have

1308
01:06:40,440 --> 01:06:42,360
Speaker 3: been about sixty five percent against the spreading going back

1309
01:06:42,360 --> 01:06:44,240
Speaker 3: to nineteen ninety. Kansas fits that bill, and that's one

1310
01:06:44,280 --> 01:06:46,800
Speaker 3: that makes sense to me. Like you self was benching

1311
01:06:46,840 --> 01:06:49,960
Speaker 3: guys in the second half of that game, like sending

1312
01:06:50,000 --> 01:06:52,840
Speaker 3: messages you should get Kansas's best effort here. I did

1313
01:06:52,880 --> 01:06:57,560
Speaker 3: bet Kansas. I'm kind of souring on it, though I

1314
01:06:57,600 --> 01:07:01,440
Speaker 3: don't know. I might buy out some just like from

1315
01:07:01,480 --> 01:07:03,760
Speaker 3: a shit I do think that they'll be able to

1316
01:07:03,920 --> 01:07:06,520
Speaker 3: limit Daniels. Now, Daniels is capable going off like you

1317
01:07:06,600 --> 01:07:09,320
Speaker 3: at forty seven in a game this year, but there's

1318
01:07:09,360 --> 01:07:12,120
Speaker 3: just so much Kansas length. But Kansas is kind of

1319
01:07:12,120 --> 01:07:14,360
Speaker 3: like a shot volume loser They're not the same team

1320
01:07:14,400 --> 01:07:16,920
Speaker 3: away from home, like bottom ten away from home, and

1321
01:07:17,000 --> 01:07:21,480
Speaker 3: this is a nine to forty five late start. There's

1322
01:07:22,520 --> 01:07:25,400
Speaker 3: it's cal Baptis is going to shorten the game down.

1323
01:07:26,840 --> 01:07:29,640
Speaker 3: So yeah, I do think they have the length to

1324
01:07:29,680 --> 01:07:32,480
Speaker 3: throw at Daniels and then just where does cal Baptist

1325
01:07:32,520 --> 01:07:36,280
Speaker 3: go for offense? But I don't know. I'm kind of

1326
01:07:36,400 --> 01:07:39,800
Speaker 3: souring on. I have a bet on Kansas minus thirteen

1327
01:07:39,800 --> 01:07:41,960
Speaker 3: and a half. I don't I don't feel as great

1328
01:07:41,960 --> 01:07:43,360
Speaker 3: about it as I once did, but I do think

1329
01:07:43,360 --> 01:07:48,959
Speaker 3: it's a tough matchup for the cal Baptist offense. Duck,

1330
01:07:49,080 --> 01:07:49,800
Speaker 3: you gotta take care.

1331
01:07:51,160 --> 01:07:53,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the under. I like cal Baptist team

1332
01:07:53,400 --> 01:07:57,560
Speaker 2: total under. I love cal Baptist. They're a great team.

1333
01:07:57,600 --> 01:07:59,439
Speaker 2: It's been a fun story. I'm glad they won the whack.

1334
01:07:59,480 --> 01:08:01,840
Speaker 2: It's gonna be real cool thing to see them in

1335
01:08:01,880 --> 01:08:04,560
Speaker 2: the NCAA tournament. The travel is easy for them, just

1336
01:08:04,600 --> 01:08:06,760
Speaker 2: an hour up the road. Kansas has to fly across

1337
01:08:06,760 --> 01:08:08,920
Speaker 2: the country, so I can see We talked about the

1338
01:08:09,560 --> 01:08:11,240
Speaker 2: race to ten props. If you can get a real

1339
01:08:11,320 --> 01:08:14,520
Speaker 2: juicy number on Baptist, I could see them maybe having

1340
01:08:14,520 --> 01:08:16,240
Speaker 2: a hot start. I wouldn't be shocked at all if

1341
01:08:16,240 --> 01:08:19,639
Speaker 2: Dom hits a couple threes early. But the Kansas length

1342
01:08:19,800 --> 01:08:21,600
Speaker 2: is really going to be tricky in this one. For

1343
01:08:21,640 --> 01:08:24,360
Speaker 2: cal Baptist, you're not going to get a lot of

1344
01:08:24,400 --> 01:08:27,599
Speaker 2: productivity in the post and for the Lancers to stick

1345
01:08:27,640 --> 01:08:29,760
Speaker 2: around in this one, it's gonna take thirty five or

1346
01:08:29,760 --> 01:08:33,000
Speaker 2: thirty eight points from Dom And I just don't know.

1347
01:08:33,960 --> 01:08:35,920
Speaker 2: These are bright lights. This is something none of these

1348
01:08:35,920 --> 01:08:37,920
Speaker 2: players have ever done before. And you get onto this

1349
01:08:38,000 --> 01:08:40,479
Speaker 2: stage where Kansas goes every year and they've got all

1350
01:08:40,479 --> 01:08:43,280
Speaker 2: the guys that have been there before and cal Baptist hasn't,

1351
01:08:43,320 --> 01:08:47,840
Speaker 2: and it just could be one where it looks really

1352
01:08:48,240 --> 01:08:50,799
Speaker 2: worse on offense than what it actually is. For cal Baptist,

1353
01:08:50,840 --> 01:08:52,599
Speaker 2: I think their defense can hang in there for a while,

1354
01:08:52,680 --> 01:08:55,680
Speaker 2: and the defense is going to limit a little bit

1355
01:08:55,720 --> 01:08:58,920
Speaker 2: of the post and kind of what Kansas wants to

1356
01:08:58,920 --> 01:09:03,000
Speaker 2: do with the ball entry in the lane. Neither one

1357
01:09:03,000 --> 01:09:04,960
Speaker 2: of these teams really wants to shoot a lot of threes.

1358
01:09:05,520 --> 01:09:08,120
Speaker 2: I know Dom makes some threes, but really nobody else

1359
01:09:08,120 --> 01:09:11,240
Speaker 2: shoots a lot of threes here and cal Baptist turns

1360
01:09:11,240 --> 01:09:15,800
Speaker 2: the ball over at an alarmingly high rate two eighthing.

1361
01:09:16,280 --> 01:09:19,680
Speaker 3: Kansas never forces turnovers. Cal Baptist turns it over all

1362
01:09:19,720 --> 01:09:22,479
Speaker 3: the time. What gives Now, it's a lot like now

1363
01:09:22,479 --> 01:09:24,960
Speaker 3: you're playing cal Baptist, because if Kansas is turning over

1364
01:09:25,000 --> 01:09:27,479
Speaker 3: cal Baptists, they're gonna destroy them in transition and get

1365
01:09:27,560 --> 01:09:30,920
Speaker 3: so many easy buckets and then go on a They're

1366
01:09:30,920 --> 01:09:32,880
Speaker 3: gonna go on runs and get easy buckets and then

1367
01:09:32,920 --> 01:09:36,559
Speaker 3: I think it's lights out. And by the way, since

1368
01:09:36,640 --> 01:09:38,679
Speaker 3: we were first, cal Baptist is making thirty eight percent

1369
01:09:38,720 --> 01:09:40,760
Speaker 3: of their threes. Before then there were thirty one percent

1370
01:09:40,760 --> 01:09:42,320
Speaker 3: three point shooting team. They're not a great three point

1371
01:09:42,320 --> 01:09:44,680
Speaker 3: shooting team, and they're gonna need to make threes here.

1372
01:09:44,680 --> 01:09:45,799
Speaker 3: But kay, do you have anything else?

1373
01:09:46,400 --> 01:09:46,639
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1374
01:09:46,920 --> 01:09:49,920
Speaker 2: I mean I can't imagine that. The idea for cal

1375
01:09:50,000 --> 01:09:52,599
Speaker 2: Baptist is that they're gonna try and crash the offensive

1376
01:09:52,600 --> 01:09:55,040
Speaker 2: glass here or they're gonna get toasted in transitions. So

1377
01:09:55,120 --> 01:09:58,000
Speaker 2: you're not gonna have a lot of second chance off opportunities.

1378
01:09:58,000 --> 01:10:00,960
Speaker 2: You're gonna have one and done possessions. This game should

1379
01:10:00,960 --> 01:10:03,599
Speaker 2: be played at sixty three possessions or less. I think

1380
01:10:03,600 --> 01:10:05,360
Speaker 2: it's an under I think it's a seventy two to

1381
01:10:05,400 --> 01:10:07,759
Speaker 2: fifty nine type of game when all is said and done,

1382
01:10:07,960 --> 01:10:10,720
Speaker 2: maybe seventy four fifty nine, so Kansas can cover for you.

1383
01:10:11,439 --> 01:10:13,240
Speaker 2: And I think it's an under. I think it's a

1384
01:10:13,240 --> 01:10:16,040
Speaker 2: cow Baptist team total under. I think that they will

1385
01:10:16,560 --> 01:10:19,680
Speaker 2: not embarrass themselves. I think it'll be respectable showing maybe

1386
01:10:19,720 --> 01:10:21,559
Speaker 2: they're down eight late and they just can't get a

1387
01:10:21,560 --> 01:10:23,679
Speaker 2: bucket in the last two minutes or something in Kansas

1388
01:10:23,680 --> 01:10:26,360
Speaker 2: eeks out of cover. But I think this is an under.

1389
01:10:27,840 --> 01:10:30,439
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, Kalbath is an elite rebounding team and

1390
01:10:30,520 --> 01:10:32,840
Speaker 3: Kansas doesn't turn you over. So like from a shot

1391
01:10:32,880 --> 01:10:36,080
Speaker 3: vying perspective, that's what worries me. But Iskwpath is going

1392
01:10:36,160 --> 01:10:39,480
Speaker 3: to be able to have that rebounding strength against Kansas.

1393
01:10:39,960 --> 01:10:41,120
Speaker 2: Not on the offensive glass.

1394
01:10:41,280 --> 01:10:44,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, So like I still like Kansas. I just there

1395
01:10:44,160 --> 01:10:47,360
Speaker 3: are some things, you know, the start time that where.

1396
01:10:47,200 --> 01:10:49,080
Speaker 2: And if Dom goes off for thirty five, you tip

1397
01:10:49,120 --> 01:10:49,920
Speaker 2: your cap and move on.

1398
01:10:50,200 --> 01:10:50,439
Speaker 3: Yep.

1399
01:10:52,040 --> 01:10:54,479
Speaker 1: Anything you want to add, Mike, I was kind of

1400
01:10:54,479 --> 01:10:56,840
Speaker 1: flirting with the idea of because there's some markets that

1401
01:10:56,880 --> 01:10:59,320
Speaker 1: are offering these kill shot runs you know, ten oh

1402
01:10:59,479 --> 01:11:01,719
Speaker 1: fifteen h twenty zero avalanche stuff.

1403
01:11:02,040 --> 01:11:03,960
Speaker 3: But the ten to zero for cal Baptist was only

1404
01:11:04,000 --> 01:11:05,840
Speaker 3: four to one. I think I need like.

1405
01:11:06,040 --> 01:11:08,479
Speaker 1: Plus seven to fifteen minimum to get into bed with

1406
01:11:08,520 --> 01:11:10,600
Speaker 1: a situation like that, So it's a pass.

1407
01:11:11,800 --> 01:11:14,920
Speaker 3: All right. Let's be going ten Eastern ten pm Eastern

1408
01:11:14,960 --> 01:11:18,920
Speaker 3: on TVs. We have another two to fifteen matchup. Connecticut

1409
01:11:18,960 --> 01:11:24,160
Speaker 3: will take on Furman. This game will take place in Philadelphia.

1410
01:11:24,200 --> 01:11:27,439
Speaker 3: Should get some Yukon fans there. U comes up from

1411
01:11:27,479 --> 01:11:29,120
Speaker 3: an eighteen and a half point favorite and open up to

1412
01:11:29,120 --> 01:11:31,839
Speaker 3: twenty and a half total one thirty six and a half.

1413
01:11:34,520 --> 01:11:38,400
Speaker 3: Kind of leaning Furman. Uh Now, they don't turn teams over,

1414
01:11:38,439 --> 01:11:41,240
Speaker 3: which is like one thing you want to do against Connecticut.

1415
01:11:41,360 --> 01:11:44,400
Speaker 3: But this is like a three fourteen to me, And

1416
01:11:44,439 --> 01:11:46,920
Speaker 3: I think this line's too high now that Connecticut's taking money. Like,

1417
01:11:47,000 --> 01:11:49,720
Speaker 3: I think Furman's better than a fifteen. They had some injuries.

1418
01:11:49,960 --> 01:11:52,680
Speaker 3: They just weren't the same team without Bowser, who was

1419
01:11:52,720 --> 01:11:55,200
Speaker 3: incredible in the tournament. They're big. They actually have two

1420
01:11:55,200 --> 01:12:00,080
Speaker 3: Bowser's brothers on the team and Cooper and Cole, and

1421
01:12:00,479 --> 01:12:03,360
Speaker 3: so they had some injuries and they're very well coached.

1422
01:12:04,080 --> 01:12:07,880
Speaker 3: H They have the their fifth, their fifth and average height,

1423
01:12:08,760 --> 01:12:12,639
Speaker 3: so like they have the length that like to match

1424
01:12:12,720 --> 01:12:19,439
Speaker 3: up with some of these teams, and like I this

1425
01:12:19,560 --> 01:12:21,599
Speaker 3: Yukon team is more like a three to me. Again,

1426
01:12:21,640 --> 01:12:23,320
Speaker 3: we talked about the Big East. I mean, how many

1427
01:12:23,320 --> 01:12:26,960
Speaker 3: times we got to see this Connecticut team like go

1428
01:12:27,040 --> 01:12:28,720
Speaker 3: down to the wire with the dregs of the Big

1429
01:12:28,760 --> 01:12:33,439
Speaker 3: East and like have underwhelming performances and they just always

1430
01:12:33,439 --> 01:12:38,880
Speaker 3: take money. They just this roster's kind of flawed, like

1431
01:12:39,960 --> 01:12:44,320
Speaker 3: I don't know, and they also play really slow. They

1432
01:12:44,320 --> 01:12:46,240
Speaker 3: just don't have enough creators, which is kind of what

1433
01:12:46,280 --> 01:12:49,680
Speaker 3: you need against Furman. So I don't know. I think

1434
01:12:49,720 --> 01:12:53,479
Speaker 3: Furman can hang in there. Robertie's a good coach, will

1435
01:12:53,560 --> 01:12:56,280
Speaker 3: change up some the defenses a bunch. The only thing

1436
01:12:56,320 --> 01:12:58,719
Speaker 3: that worries me and which like there's a chance Ferman

1437
01:12:58,760 --> 01:13:00,760
Speaker 3: puts a scare into Yukon, Like you never know what

1438
01:13:00,800 --> 01:13:03,400
Speaker 3: Yukon team you're getting. I'm sure Hurley, I mean lough

1439
01:13:03,439 --> 01:13:05,960
Speaker 3: Curley's covered fourteen straight, he seventeen two against spread by

1440
01:13:05,960 --> 01:13:08,200
Speaker 3: as night to follow him and to fade him after

1441
01:13:08,400 --> 01:13:10,200
Speaker 3: a bad loss in the biggest tournament, I'm sure they'll

1442
01:13:10,240 --> 01:13:12,920
Speaker 3: be focused. But like what it shocked me at Firman's

1443
01:13:12,960 --> 01:13:15,560
Speaker 3: up at the half. Now the wild card heer is

1444
01:13:15,560 --> 01:13:18,679
Speaker 3: Alex Wilkins, who is one of the most talented point

1445
01:13:18,680 --> 01:13:22,799
Speaker 3: guards in the country for a freshman, but is super volatile,

1446
01:13:23,240 --> 01:13:26,680
Speaker 3: like incredibly validle like ave game. He had a game

1447
01:13:26,800 --> 01:13:31,080
Speaker 3: against East Tennessee State, we had eleven turnovers, and then

1448
01:13:31,080 --> 01:13:33,639
Speaker 3: he had a game recently we had thirty four points.

1449
01:13:34,080 --> 01:13:37,160
Speaker 3: He's had, you know, he scored thirty three thirty four.

1450
01:13:37,240 --> 01:13:40,080
Speaker 3: Super talented kid, but he also could go I don't

1451
01:13:40,080 --> 01:13:44,000
Speaker 3: know what to expect from him. He could go like

1452
01:13:44,160 --> 01:13:47,120
Speaker 3: one of nine on bad threes that lead to Connecticut

1453
01:13:47,240 --> 01:13:50,600
Speaker 3: runouts and have seven turnovers and then it's lights out

1454
01:13:50,720 --> 01:13:53,080
Speaker 3: and they need him to be good here. So that's

1455
01:13:53,080 --> 01:13:56,759
Speaker 3: a huge wildcard on the number now that Connecticut's taken money,

1456
01:13:56,840 --> 01:13:59,400
Speaker 3: I did dumb if fools Erron to fade hurly. I

1457
01:13:59,439 --> 01:14:02,240
Speaker 3: know the tournament, but I lean Ferman on the number

1458
01:14:02,320 --> 01:14:06,920
Speaker 3: right now, Mike, you got anything here.

1459
01:14:07,680 --> 01:14:10,280
Speaker 1: I'm just a little bit surprised because, you know, for

1460
01:14:10,400 --> 01:14:13,560
Speaker 1: a two to three year stretch, and Tanner did a

1461
01:14:13,560 --> 01:14:15,240
Speaker 1: great job writing and suff for Action I work a

1462
01:14:15,280 --> 01:14:19,479
Speaker 1: couple of years ago. Their offensive sets were unique, they

1463
01:14:19,479 --> 01:14:22,720
Speaker 1: were fresh, they were getting people open. They're constantly in motion.

1464
01:14:22,800 --> 01:14:25,040
Speaker 1: It is like a Swiss watch in the half court,

1465
01:14:25,200 --> 01:14:27,760
Speaker 1: and I understand that their primary ball handlers have left

1466
01:14:27,760 --> 01:14:29,760
Speaker 1: a lot to be desired this year, but it just

1467
01:14:29,800 --> 01:14:31,800
Speaker 1: looks like they're stuck in the mud in the half

1468
01:14:31,800 --> 01:14:33,240
Speaker 1: court and they don't know what they want to do.

1469
01:14:33,320 --> 01:14:35,040
Speaker 3: And Luke Murray was supposed to.

1470
01:14:34,960 --> 01:14:37,840
Speaker 1: Be this, you know, assistant coach genius who was going

1471
01:14:37,920 --> 01:14:40,040
Speaker 1: to be destined to have any head coaching opening that

1472
01:14:40,080 --> 01:14:41,960
Speaker 1: he wanted because he was basically in charge of that.

1473
01:14:42,320 --> 01:14:43,240
Speaker 3: I just haven't seen it.

1474
01:14:43,320 --> 01:14:45,240
Speaker 1: So you Gun just a pure stay away for me

1475
01:14:45,600 --> 01:14:47,840
Speaker 1: really from that Marquette game on. I hopped in live

1476
01:14:48,520 --> 01:14:50,559
Speaker 1: on that game when they fell behind on the road,

1477
01:14:50,560 --> 01:14:52,519
Speaker 1: and I figured to myself, like, they'll figure out a way.

1478
01:14:52,520 --> 01:14:54,720
Speaker 1: They're not going to lose to Marquette. And I was

1479
01:14:54,800 --> 01:14:58,479
Speaker 1: just overwhelmed with how poorly they executed the half court

1480
01:14:58,560 --> 01:15:01,160
Speaker 1: offense and that perform against Saint John's. I know that

1481
01:15:01,160 --> 01:15:04,040
Speaker 1: the Johnny's made some backbreaking threes in that game, but

1482
01:15:04,120 --> 01:15:06,960
Speaker 1: like it was really because they just couldn't generate enough

1483
01:15:07,000 --> 01:15:09,559
Speaker 1: offense in the half court. That's unlikely to be the

1484
01:15:09,600 --> 01:15:12,200
Speaker 1: case against this Ferman team. Doesn't mean they're necessarily going

1485
01:15:12,200 --> 01:15:14,599
Speaker 1: to cover the number, but I need to see Yukon

1486
01:15:14,680 --> 01:15:17,599
Speaker 1: play a really good forty minutes against a quality team

1487
01:15:17,600 --> 01:15:20,120
Speaker 1: in the round of thirty two before I reevaluate where

1488
01:15:20,160 --> 01:15:22,000
Speaker 1: they are because they're on the downslope here, and I

1489
01:15:22,080 --> 01:15:23,600
Speaker 1: agree with you, they're playing more like a three or

1490
01:15:23,680 --> 01:15:24,840
Speaker 1: four seed than a two.

1491
01:15:25,680 --> 01:15:27,679
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think I will be betting UCLI if Usay

1492
01:15:27,760 --> 01:15:30,760
Speaker 3: is healthy against Yukon in the second round, although I

1493
01:15:30,800 --> 01:15:33,720
Speaker 3: cannot defend off the ball. Going go look at that

1494
01:15:33,760 --> 01:15:37,160
Speaker 3: Minnesota game, but I don't think that gets slowing down.

1495
01:15:37,400 --> 01:15:43,760
Speaker 3: Ucl I had full strength. All right, Uh, Doc, you

1496
01:15:43,760 --> 01:15:44,400
Speaker 3: got anything there?

1497
01:15:45,760 --> 01:15:47,719
Speaker 2: Well, I mean at this point in the show, let's

1498
01:15:47,720 --> 01:15:51,040
Speaker 2: pour one out last time firm and made the NCAAAA tournaments.

1499
01:15:51,080 --> 01:15:53,320
Speaker 2: Dan van Gundy lost his life savings. If you don't

1500
01:15:53,320 --> 01:15:54,640
Speaker 2: know what I'm talking about, and go look at the

1501
01:15:54,680 --> 01:15:58,600
Speaker 2: video because it is unbelievably legendary. Find the video of

1502
01:15:58,640 --> 01:16:02,160
Speaker 2: the last shot or the he've hosed the ball into

1503
01:16:02,160 --> 01:16:05,080
Speaker 2: the front court like it's a grenade. Get the announcer

1504
01:16:05,080 --> 01:16:07,559
Speaker 2: reaction video because it is really pretty funny to watch

1505
01:16:07,600 --> 01:16:10,840
Speaker 2: Stan van Gunny's reaction just stunned when Ferman intustry by

1506
01:16:11,760 --> 01:16:15,320
Speaker 2: legendary comeback from Furman. Since that point, the Southern Conference

1507
01:16:15,320 --> 01:16:19,360
Speaker 2: has been decimated and dissected by nil in the portal.

1508
01:16:19,400 --> 01:16:24,439
Speaker 2: This once premiere firmly cemented mid major league is now

1509
01:16:24,600 --> 01:16:29,120
Speaker 2: like below the A Sun and way way down. Furman

1510
01:16:29,200 --> 01:16:30,840
Speaker 2: has been better since they got some of their guys

1511
01:16:30,840 --> 01:16:35,160
Speaker 2: back from injury. But I worry about how good this

1512
01:16:35,240 --> 01:16:39,920
Speaker 2: team is and I worry about how efficient they'll be offensively.

1513
01:16:40,720 --> 01:16:44,200
Speaker 2: Both these teams are gonna play very, very slow. I

1514
01:16:44,200 --> 01:16:46,040
Speaker 2: don't know if I want to lay it with Yukon.

1515
01:16:46,160 --> 01:16:48,120
Speaker 2: I'm not trying to suggest that, although I don't want

1516
01:16:48,160 --> 01:16:51,439
Speaker 2: to step in front of fourteen oats run fourteen in

1517
01:16:51,439 --> 01:16:53,599
Speaker 2: a row against the number for Yukon in the tournament.

1518
01:16:55,720 --> 01:16:58,559
Speaker 2: I've said this far too much today. I probably lean under.

1519
01:16:59,000 --> 01:17:01,840
Speaker 2: I feel that maybe if Furman hangs in there, it's

1520
01:17:01,880 --> 01:17:04,360
Speaker 2: because their defense, which is a little bit funky to

1521
01:17:04,400 --> 01:17:06,680
Speaker 2: start and can do a bit of unique things to

1522
01:17:06,720 --> 01:17:09,559
Speaker 2: maybe turn Yukon over or create some some looks for

1523
01:17:09,720 --> 01:17:13,599
Speaker 2: Yukon that they really haven't seen. I fear that Furman

1524
01:17:13,680 --> 01:17:15,920
Speaker 2: misses shot so that they maybe go on a long

1525
01:17:15,960 --> 01:17:17,760
Speaker 2: stretch of seven or eight minutes where they can't buy

1526
01:17:17,800 --> 01:17:20,240
Speaker 2: a bucket, and that would be good for an under

1527
01:17:20,240 --> 01:17:22,479
Speaker 2: in bed if you're wanting to back the Paladins here.

1528
01:17:23,439 --> 01:17:26,200
Speaker 3: Alright, Final game Missouri Miami tips off ten ten Eastern

1529
01:17:26,240 --> 01:17:32,280
Speaker 3: on True TV in Saint Louis, Missouri ten ten tip

1530
01:17:32,320 --> 01:17:34,080
Speaker 3: in Saint Louis. Wasn't it weird?

1531
01:17:34,400 --> 01:17:37,760
Speaker 2: You like A, yeah, they messed up the tip times

1532
01:17:37,760 --> 01:17:39,040
Speaker 2: there in San Diego and Missouri.

1533
01:17:39,080 --> 01:17:41,400
Speaker 3: For sure, the ten seed gets to play in Missouri.

1534
01:17:41,520 --> 01:17:47,439
Speaker 3: Uh against Miami. Uh. Interesting. Missouri will definitely have a

1535
01:17:47,560 --> 01:17:51,840
Speaker 3: home court advantage here in Saint Louis with a heavy

1536
01:17:51,880 --> 01:17:54,519
Speaker 3: fan presence. Miami is a one and a half point favorite.

1537
01:17:54,560 --> 01:17:57,840
Speaker 3: Missouri has taken a little bit of money total down

1538
01:17:57,880 --> 01:18:01,000
Speaker 3: to one forty seven and a half. If you can

1539
01:18:01,000 --> 01:18:05,479
Speaker 3: figure out Missouri better man than me. I can't figure

1540
01:18:05,479 --> 01:18:09,000
Speaker 3: them out. There are the similarities between these teams are stunning,

1541
01:18:09,160 --> 01:18:12,040
Speaker 3: Like this is like a true coin flip game to

1542
01:18:12,040 --> 01:18:14,520
Speaker 3: me when you include that my Missouri is playing in Missouri.

1543
01:18:15,400 --> 01:18:17,639
Speaker 3: Like you look at this matchup. Both teams will throw

1544
01:18:17,640 --> 01:18:20,320
Speaker 3: out some zone like gates, will mix up a lot

1545
01:18:20,320 --> 01:18:23,360
Speaker 3: of defenses. But teams have zoned Miami all year and

1546
01:18:23,400 --> 01:18:25,320
Speaker 3: they've been bad against own. That could end up being

1547
01:18:25,360 --> 01:18:28,280
Speaker 3: the difference. But you know, both teams are really good

1548
01:18:28,280 --> 01:18:33,040
Speaker 3: on the offensive glass. Both teams can get to the line,

1549
01:18:33,439 --> 01:18:36,439
Speaker 3: both teams are it's a bruising inside player that can

1550
01:18:36,479 --> 01:18:40,720
Speaker 3: take over a game, bruising front courts here that are

1551
01:18:40,720 --> 01:18:44,439
Speaker 3: going to battle. Both teams struggle from the free throw line.

1552
01:18:44,439 --> 01:18:48,920
Speaker 3: They almost have the same exact free throw percentage. The

1553
01:18:49,000 --> 01:18:52,600
Speaker 3: differences might be that, you know, Missouri's worse on the

1554
01:18:52,600 --> 01:18:55,599
Speaker 3: defensive glass than Miami, and Missouri will turn it over

1555
01:18:55,640 --> 01:18:59,639
Speaker 3: a bit more. But I don't know. I can't fink

1556
01:18:59,680 --> 01:19:06,680
Speaker 3: miss always. They're tough to figure out. Probably I might

1557
01:19:06,720 --> 01:19:08,360
Speaker 3: throw them in a round robin for some action. I

1558
01:19:08,400 --> 01:19:09,800
Speaker 3: do not have a strong take on it. I think

1559
01:19:09,840 --> 01:19:12,519
Speaker 3: this is a this is a dead I think you're

1560
01:19:12,520 --> 01:19:16,519
Speaker 3: gonna see a ton of zone from Missouri, which could

1561
01:19:16,520 --> 01:19:19,120
Speaker 3: be effective, but then they're gonna get crush on the

1562
01:19:19,160 --> 01:19:24,360
Speaker 3: offensive class. So a lot of different I could make

1563
01:19:24,400 --> 01:19:26,720
Speaker 3: a case for either side. There's a lot of similarities

1564
01:19:26,720 --> 01:19:31,719
Speaker 3: between these teams. So it's a pretty good seven ten matchup,

1565
01:19:31,760 --> 01:19:33,880
Speaker 3: but it's unfortunately I have explained Saint Louis, but it

1566
01:19:34,000 --> 01:19:34,559
Speaker 3: is what it is.

1567
01:19:36,600 --> 01:19:36,800
Speaker 2: Mike.

1568
01:19:36,840 --> 01:19:37,519
Speaker 3: You gotta take care.

1569
01:19:38,640 --> 01:19:41,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think they're tempo numbers. Explain why this total

1570
01:19:41,680 --> 01:19:43,880
Speaker 1: is under one fifty. But I just view it as

1571
01:19:44,000 --> 01:19:47,240
Speaker 1: Miami's been an ATM on overs all year, cashing over sixty.

1572
01:19:46,960 --> 01:19:48,360
Speaker 3: One percent, and when.

1573
01:19:48,200 --> 01:19:51,639
Speaker 1: Maszoo games do go over, they go way over the number.

1574
01:19:51,840 --> 01:19:55,280
Speaker 1: In their last eight overs that they've cashed, it's crossed

1575
01:19:55,280 --> 01:19:57,960
Speaker 1: over the closing total by eleven and a half points

1576
01:19:58,000 --> 01:19:59,840
Speaker 1: per game. So I think, if I'm going to be

1577
01:19:59,880 --> 01:20:01,400
Speaker 1: right on this one, I'm going to be really right.

1578
01:20:01,439 --> 01:20:04,240
Speaker 1: And it's not a bad way to end the round

1579
01:20:04,240 --> 01:20:05,960
Speaker 1: of sixty four to be able to cash in over

1580
01:20:06,040 --> 01:20:08,519
Speaker 1: with like five minutes to go in regulation. I think

1581
01:20:08,560 --> 01:20:11,840
Speaker 1: if the shots are falling, and I mean there's a

1582
01:20:11,840 --> 01:20:13,960
Speaker 1: lot of elements on both of these teams that are

1583
01:20:14,040 --> 01:20:17,559
Speaker 1: high variants from personnel perspective, but particularly with Mazoo, when

1584
01:20:17,560 --> 01:20:21,400
Speaker 1: you look at kind of the burst and the potential

1585
01:20:21,560 --> 01:20:23,519
Speaker 1: takeover ability of a guy like Barrett, you know, he

1586
01:20:23,560 --> 01:20:26,639
Speaker 1: has some twenty point games out of nowhere. They certainly

1587
01:20:26,720 --> 01:20:28,360
Speaker 1: need a little bit of that to pull out of

1588
01:20:28,360 --> 01:20:31,320
Speaker 1: this late season offensive funk. You add in the fact

1589
01:20:31,320 --> 01:20:33,880
Speaker 1: that they're playing in front of a superpartisan crowd that's

1590
01:20:33,920 --> 01:20:35,800
Speaker 1: going to be kind of juicing them up, at least

1591
01:20:35,800 --> 01:20:37,360
Speaker 1: in the early going of this game.

1592
01:20:37,680 --> 01:20:39,160
Speaker 3: I think we can see some scoring.

1593
01:20:39,160 --> 01:20:40,880
Speaker 1: The ball go through the hoop, and maybe these teams

1594
01:20:40,880 --> 01:20:44,120
Speaker 1: play a tick faster than they have when they've struggled

1595
01:20:44,120 --> 01:20:46,400
Speaker 1: a bit offensively. So one forty seven and a half

1596
01:20:46,439 --> 01:20:47,280
Speaker 1: doesn't scare me away.

1597
01:20:47,280 --> 01:20:49,439
Speaker 3: I'll go over dock. You got anything there.

1598
01:20:50,840 --> 01:20:53,160
Speaker 2: I looked extensively, and I don't feel like there's much

1599
01:20:53,160 --> 01:20:55,479
Speaker 2: of an edge. In my opinion. I want to back Missouri,

1600
01:20:55,520 --> 01:20:57,880
Speaker 2: but they've been so inconsistent down the stretch. I think

1601
01:20:57,920 --> 01:21:00,760
Speaker 2: both these teams are real close in getting into that

1602
01:21:01,400 --> 01:21:04,800
Speaker 2: top echelon part of their conference, but there's a lot

1603
01:21:04,800 --> 01:21:07,479
Speaker 2: of weaknesses and who can exploit those weakness is what

1604
01:21:07,600 --> 01:21:09,519
Speaker 2: teams show up. So I'm going to pass here.

1605
01:21:10,520 --> 01:21:12,640
Speaker 3: All right, good stuff going through all the games. We

1606
01:21:12,680 --> 01:21:14,880
Speaker 3: do have one final order of business, your final four

1607
01:21:15,800 --> 01:21:20,120
Speaker 3: right now and your national champion. Do you have an

1608
01:21:20,200 --> 01:21:25,120
Speaker 3: update updated final four? In chat? I do have an update.

1609
01:21:25,560 --> 01:21:28,599
Speaker 1: I'm keeping the same final four, but I'm putting my faith,

1610
01:21:28,680 --> 01:21:34,439
Speaker 1: which was it was let's see Duke against Houston and

1611
01:21:35,040 --> 01:21:38,800
Speaker 1: Arizona against Michigan's have three ones and a two. I'm

1612
01:21:38,800 --> 01:21:42,880
Speaker 1: gonna go with Houston over Arizona in a rematch. I'm

1613
01:21:42,880 --> 01:21:47,559
Speaker 1: a little bit concerned with Michigan's you know, ball handling.

1614
01:21:47,720 --> 01:21:52,040
Speaker 1: Cadou is not someone who really wows me, and he

1615
01:21:52,160 --> 01:21:54,479
Speaker 1: is in a shooting you know funk. I don't think

1616
01:21:54,479 --> 01:21:56,120
Speaker 1: it's going to hurt him in the first weekend, but

1617
01:21:56,160 --> 01:22:00,000
Speaker 1: when they get to that second weekend and the competition starts,

1618
01:21:59,800 --> 01:22:02,080
Speaker 1: this necessitating that he knocks down some perimeter shots, and

1619
01:22:02,080 --> 01:22:04,479
Speaker 1: plus they know much death behind him. So I'm gonna

1620
01:22:04,520 --> 01:22:06,719
Speaker 1: go with an Arizona team that it's just a cherry

1621
01:22:06,760 --> 01:22:08,479
Speaker 1: on top. If they can make threes, they don't take

1622
01:22:08,520 --> 01:22:09,280
Speaker 1: them all that often.

1623
01:22:10,040 --> 01:22:10,519
Speaker 3: And then a.

1624
01:22:10,479 --> 01:22:12,720
Speaker 1: Tournament where we've seen all kinds of weird things, tight

1625
01:22:12,800 --> 01:22:15,880
Speaker 1: rims and overinflated basketballs, sometimes you want to move away

1626
01:22:15,880 --> 01:22:18,800
Speaker 1: from those three point dependent teams, particularly for those early

1627
01:22:18,960 --> 01:22:21,360
Speaker 1: land mine kind of games. So I think Arizona is

1628
01:22:21,880 --> 01:22:24,200
Speaker 1: probably the safest bet in the entire tournament to make

1629
01:22:24,240 --> 01:22:26,040
Speaker 1: it to the second weekend, and then from there, I

1630
01:22:26,080 --> 01:22:26,720
Speaker 1: think they're gonna be.

1631
01:22:26,720 --> 01:22:27,400
Speaker 3: Able to get it done.

1632
01:22:27,400 --> 01:22:29,439
Speaker 1: But I'll go Houston over Arizona in the NATTI.

1633
01:22:30,479 --> 01:22:36,280
Speaker 3: My champion, my my main bracket, which I'll enter into

1634
01:22:36,479 --> 01:22:39,559
Speaker 3: a lot of like high stakes pools. It's my name,

1635
01:22:39,920 --> 01:22:42,479
Speaker 3: like the other contest where they can get their enter three.

1636
01:22:42,520 --> 01:22:44,000
Speaker 3: So I'll have a couple of second of brackets my

1637
01:22:44,040 --> 01:22:46,200
Speaker 3: main bracket right now, which I think I will change,

1638
01:22:46,720 --> 01:22:49,720
Speaker 3: but it's this I don't think I will change. On

1639
01:22:49,760 --> 01:22:54,040
Speaker 3: the right side of the bracket, I have Michigan and

1640
01:22:55,560 --> 01:22:57,160
Speaker 3: I think that they're just walking to the lead eight

1641
01:23:00,200 --> 01:23:04,240
Speaker 3: and I have Purdue, and I have Perdue being Michigan again,

1642
01:23:04,720 --> 01:23:08,200
Speaker 3: Perdue going to the championship. On the left side as

1643
01:23:08,200 --> 01:23:12,759
Speaker 3: of right now, like I don't I don't trust Houston.

1644
01:23:15,840 --> 01:23:17,240
Speaker 3: I could I have the Illinois, but have I got

1645
01:23:17,280 --> 01:23:21,800
Speaker 3: have an all Big ten final four. I could see Illinois,

1646
01:23:22,479 --> 01:23:29,840
Speaker 3: but as of right now, I have Vandy and and

1647
01:23:29,880 --> 01:23:33,840
Speaker 3: then in the top left as of right now, I

1648
01:23:33,880 --> 01:23:38,160
Speaker 3: have Kansas in the east. Uh so I found four Perdue, Michigan, Bandy,

1649
01:23:38,200 --> 01:23:40,639
Speaker 3: Kansas Prety winning it all. It's for a very high

1650
01:23:40,640 --> 01:23:43,640
Speaker 3: stakes pool though, like high stakes pools where I'm just

1651
01:23:43,680 --> 01:23:46,400
Speaker 3: taking some shots. But at the end my thinking on

1652
01:23:46,439 --> 01:23:48,760
Speaker 3: the East is like I would take Duke, but the

1653
01:23:48,800 --> 01:23:53,240
Speaker 3: injuries give me pause, and if Peterson gets hot with

1654
01:23:53,280 --> 01:23:55,760
Speaker 3: that defense, like now there's the shot volume, the away

1655
01:23:55,760 --> 01:23:57,800
Speaker 3: from home stuff does give me pause. But you know,

1656
01:23:57,840 --> 01:23:59,680
Speaker 3: you got a Hall of Fame coach. First, you know,

1657
01:23:59,680 --> 01:24:02,559
Speaker 3: maybe the first overall pick in the draft and a

1658
01:24:02,640 --> 01:24:04,760
Speaker 3: team that certainly has shown it can play up. But

1659
01:24:04,800 --> 01:24:07,320
Speaker 3: then like, I don't trust Louisville, I don't like this

1660
01:24:07,400 --> 01:24:10,519
Speaker 3: Michigan State team. I don't like this Yukon team. I

1661
01:24:10,560 --> 01:24:12,720
Speaker 3: actually would consider Ucla in the final four, but I

1662
01:24:12,760 --> 01:24:15,280
Speaker 3: just don't know that they're fully healthy. So the East

1663
01:24:15,360 --> 01:24:17,120
Speaker 3: is like, I need some more information. I might change

1664
01:24:17,160 --> 01:24:19,280
Speaker 3: my East pick. It might end up being Duke, but

1665
01:24:21,439 --> 01:24:23,360
Speaker 3: if I gets more insight on their health, and then

1666
01:24:23,400 --> 01:24:26,760
Speaker 3: I'm taking a shot on Vandy. So my final four

1667
01:24:26,800 --> 01:24:28,559
Speaker 3: is as of right now, Purdue, Michigan, Vandy, and then

1668
01:24:28,560 --> 01:24:32,240
Speaker 3: either Kansas or Duke or maye A Ucla. I'm still

1669
01:24:32,280 --> 01:24:34,639
Speaker 3: trying to get some injury stuff there. Dot WU.

1670
01:24:35,160 --> 01:24:36,800
Speaker 2: I'll be honest with you, I really don't know how

1671
01:24:36,800 --> 01:24:39,280
Speaker 2: to answer this. I'm so undecided, but I will give

1672
01:24:39,400 --> 01:24:40,200
Speaker 2: our listeners this.

1673
01:24:40,520 --> 01:24:43,120
Speaker 3: Are you gonna do your main pool right now? If

1674
01:24:43,160 --> 01:24:45,600
Speaker 3: you entered it, who was your chojor champion? Do you

1675
01:24:45,600 --> 01:24:47,920
Speaker 3: have like a consistent champ that your on. I'm wrong

1676
01:24:47,960 --> 01:24:50,240
Speaker 3: with Purdue in my high stakes ones, Like there's not

1677
01:24:50,320 --> 01:24:51,920
Speaker 3: a lot of people pick it, like I'm just trying

1678
01:24:51,920 --> 01:24:52,360
Speaker 3: to get some.

1679
01:24:54,600 --> 01:24:56,360
Speaker 2: I think the champ will come from the one or

1680
01:24:56,400 --> 01:25:00,559
Speaker 2: two line, and I would probably I think Duke is

1681
01:25:00,640 --> 01:25:03,120
Speaker 2: very strong. I think Arizona is very strong. But I

1682
01:25:03,120 --> 01:25:05,400
Speaker 2: do want to give the listeners this. There is a

1683
01:25:05,439 --> 01:25:07,840
Speaker 2: book out there that's offering some goofy exotics, and one

1684
01:25:07,920 --> 01:25:10,400
Speaker 2: of them is to bet the over under for the

1685
01:25:10,439 --> 01:25:13,040
Speaker 2: total sum of the seeds to make the final four.

1686
01:25:13,560 --> 01:25:16,640
Speaker 2: And that price is minus one thirty under nine and

1687
01:25:16,640 --> 01:25:18,439
Speaker 2: a half. So you can bet under nine and a

1688
01:25:18,479 --> 01:25:21,600
Speaker 2: half for the sum of the total team's seeds to

1689
01:25:21,600 --> 01:25:24,200
Speaker 2: make the final four. So if you get like a

1690
01:25:24,240 --> 01:25:27,080
Speaker 2: one two three three, that pays one one, two to

1691
01:25:27,080 --> 01:25:30,360
Speaker 2: two obviously pays. There's a lot of combinations, and in

1692
01:25:30,400 --> 01:25:32,559
Speaker 2: a perceived top heavy field, I think if you do

1693
01:25:32,680 --> 01:25:36,120
Speaker 2: that again, the sum of the final four seeds under

1694
01:25:36,200 --> 01:25:36,439
Speaker 2: nine and.

1695
01:25:36,400 --> 01:25:40,080
Speaker 3: A half, all right, that'll do it for us Live

1696
01:25:40,120 --> 01:25:44,360
Speaker 3: show Thursday morning, However, updated these lines will move, so

1697
01:25:45,240 --> 01:25:48,000
Speaker 3: there will be some line moving on a Thursday morning especially,

1698
01:25:48,880 --> 01:25:50,920
Speaker 3: We'll have our favorite bets, some more insight, we'll have

1699
01:25:50,960 --> 01:25:56,479
Speaker 3: some more injury updates. We'll be celebrate Christmas together and

1700
01:25:56,479 --> 01:25:58,840
Speaker 3: then LAVE show Saturday at the same time ten thirty

1701
01:25:58,840 --> 01:26:02,719
Speaker 3: am Eastern Player prop Show Live Wednesday three pm Eastern

1702
01:26:02,840 --> 01:26:05,160
Speaker 3: on YouTube. Make sure you check that out. Thanks to

1703
01:26:05,240 --> 01:26:07,160
Speaker 3: Duck Mike for joining me. Thanks to our producer David

1704
01:26:07,160 --> 01:26:08,360
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