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Speaker 1: Welcome to our Bloomberg radio and television audiences. I'm Shinani

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Speaker 1: Bassek and joining me now for an exclusive interview is

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Speaker 1: Paco Ebara.

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Speaker 2: He's the CEO of.

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Speaker 1: The Institutional Clients group at City Group. Thank you for

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Speaker 1: joining us. You know, Paco, you run one of the

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Speaker 1: biggest biggest trading and investment banking businesses in.

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Speaker 2: Global wall straight across the globe.

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Speaker 1: You also run the treasury and security services business at

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Speaker 1: City Group, one of the fastest growing parts of the business.

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Speaker 1: I think it's worth talking about at this point in

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Speaker 1: the market. It's a lot of question about the direction

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Speaker 1: of travel, particularly for trading and investment banking, where there

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Speaker 1: was a boom time in twenty twenty one. So what

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Speaker 1: does normal look like moving forward, particularly for trading.

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Speaker 2: When we see some businesses.

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Speaker 1: Just a few minutes ago, we had reported that Citadel

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Speaker 1: Securities faced a thirty five percent drop in the business.

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Speaker 2: What does normal look like the rest of the year.

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Speaker 3: Well, the reality is that we don't know very well.

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Speaker 3: I think we have to remember that trading businesses are

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Speaker 3: still good. If you compare overall industry trade revenues to

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Speaker 3: what they were in twenty twenty or twenty nineteen, the

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Speaker 3: numbers are significantly higher, so it's not bad. They look

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Speaker 3: worse if you compare them to recent so twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty two years, but they are still very healthy. And

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Speaker 3: what drove that health in trading revenues is still around.

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Speaker 3: We still have uncertainty in race is uncertainty about the

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Speaker 3: economic situation. There's a lot of trading and readjusting portfolios

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Speaker 3: that has to happen. So I don't think I have

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Speaker 3: reasons to be very negative of what trading revenues are

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Speaker 3: going to be in the canning in quarters. But the

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Speaker 3: truth is that I don't know.

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Speaker 1: Now some businesses say commodities have faced in a fall

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Speaker 1: off over the last several months. However, things like rates,

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Speaker 1: how much of a structural headwind or talent is that

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Speaker 1: to the industry now that we have a new economic

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Speaker 1: regime across the world.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think race is a positive part of the

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Speaker 3: story because we have to remember that we've had many

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Speaker 3: years with zero rates, with rates almost yet you know

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Speaker 3: very little uncertainty about the race we're going to do,

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Speaker 3: and we have now a comeback of the race business

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Speaker 3: with uncertainty about what they're going to do.

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Speaker 2: But with a rate to play with.

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Speaker 3: We didn't have a rate to play with before, so

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Speaker 3: I think rates is going to continue to be is

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Speaker 3: now continue to be a very active part of our

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Speaker 3: trading markets.

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Speaker 1: What about other parts of the business investment banking, there

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Speaker 1: has been a prolonged slump. There have been headcount reductions

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Speaker 1: at many Wall Street firms, including yours. At what point

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Speaker 1: do you see the needles starting to turn or do

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Speaker 1: you think it could be a lot worse before things

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Speaker 1: start to get really better.

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Speaker 3: I don't think it can be a lot worse because

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Speaker 3: it's limited by the need. The need is there, and

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Speaker 3: the needs is accumulating through months of inactivity. So at

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Speaker 3: some point, even if the market situation is not great,

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Speaker 3: the fact that needs to have accumulated will take over

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Speaker 3: and will start generating revenue. It's also has it has

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Speaker 3: also been one of the longest slums on investment banking

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Speaker 3: revenues that we have experienced. It's longer than the one

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Speaker 3: that followed the financial crisis. So it has to turn

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Speaker 3: at some point because the reason for those activities to

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Speaker 3: be there to happen has not gone away. We cannot

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Speaker 3: say exactly when, but I think it's more likely to

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Speaker 3: come back than.

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Speaker 2: To go in the other direction in anticipation of that.

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Speaker 1: Does that mean that workforce reductions in that space are

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Speaker 1: definitively over or can there be more pressure given the

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Speaker 1: competition you're seeing across the industry? How are you thinking

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Speaker 1: about headcount in the investment bank in particular?

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Speaker 3: There could be more pressure, but if you look at

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Speaker 3: the reductions all in the industry, they are small compared

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Speaker 3: to this lamb being revenue. So people have been holding

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Speaker 3: back and are trying to keep capacity for when the

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Speaker 3: urn happens. I think things would get worse if that

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Speaker 3: urn doesn't happen, but as you said, I think it's

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Speaker 3: more likely to happen than not.

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Speaker 1: What about trading, The interesting thing is that there happened

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Speaker 1: a number of departures in trading over the last year

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Speaker 1: or so when you look at City Group, But really

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Speaker 1: there has been a lot of competition from hedge funds,

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Speaker 1: privately firms for every bank in this industry. What does

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Speaker 1: that look like and is this a matter of competition

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Speaker 1: or a matter of how you're managing the business?

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Speaker 3: Differently, think it has to do with the regulatory regime,

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Speaker 3: capital constraints and what are banks good at given the

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Speaker 3: regulatory regime, and I think there are things that we

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Speaker 3: were doing before that just don't make sense for us

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Speaker 3: to do, and there are things that continue to be

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Speaker 3: profitable and things that are necessary to our clients and

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Speaker 3: we continue to do for them. We still don't know

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Speaker 3: what the final regime is going to be. As you know,

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Speaker 3: this week we're going to have a better sense of

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Speaker 3: what the treatment of trading revenuees trading activities is going

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Speaker 3: to be, but that until we get that, we will

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Speaker 3: not be able to know more definitively what is the

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Speaker 3: what should the trading business of a bank look like?

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Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about that a little more. Talking about the.

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Speaker 1: BUZZL three endgame final proposal here that's going to come out.

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Speaker 2: There will be a.

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Speaker 1: Common period for the banks to really push back on some.

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Speaker 2: Parts of that.

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Speaker 1: It'll be a while before it takes effect, but they

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Speaker 1: are pretty drastic.

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Speaker 2: These rules.

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Speaker 1: How significantly can it change the businesses that you're operating

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Speaker 1: in now?

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Speaker 3: It could, although I am more optimistic than that. I

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Speaker 3: think these businesses have shown many times that they can adjust,

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Speaker 3: and I think we will learn what the rules are

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Speaker 3: and we will adjust as well, and most likely there

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Speaker 3: will be a significant business for us to do still

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Speaker 3: after the rules happen, Also, the markets will adjust. There

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Speaker 3: will be things that will be moving from banks to

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Speaker 3: non banks, risks that will be moving from banks to

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Speaker 3: non banks, and the system will fund a new balance

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Speaker 3: on this thing with banks still playing a significant role.

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Speaker 3: That's what I think will happen. But the rules themselves

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Speaker 3: can have a significant impact.

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Speaker 1: What are some of the businesses more specifically that you

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Speaker 1: might have to take a look at, whether it's in

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Speaker 1: the mortgage area where there will be higher capital requirements

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Speaker 1: or certain parts of trading. Are there areas that you

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Speaker 1: can see having to take a look at if these

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Speaker 1: rules were to take effect.

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Speaker 3: There are, I mean we have to wait for the

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Speaker 3: rules and see the rules impact their areas in say,

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Speaker 3: for instance, exotic deririties that may be much more costly

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Speaker 3: to run from a capital at standpoint. Financing may change

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Speaker 3: as well. Businesses like prime could be seen differently. The

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Speaker 3: market would adjust to that as well. So we don't

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Speaker 3: know what the final impact would be. But anything to

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Speaker 3: do with financing with leverage, we're going to have to

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Speaker 3: see how it ends after the regulation comes out. But

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Speaker 3: it's difficult to say because It's not just what the

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Speaker 3: rule says. It's what the rule says, plus how the

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Speaker 3: market reacts to it, plus how the banks react to

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Speaker 3: it where will define the end results.

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Speaker 1: One important part of this is the concern that is

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Speaker 1: under the market that treasury entry mediation could be significantly

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Speaker 1: impacted from some of these rules. Do you think that

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Speaker 1: that is an area that might face further pressure at

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Speaker 1: a time where there are concerns under the surface about liquidity.

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure that the new rules are going to

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Speaker 3: impact that very much. That is already impacted by the

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Speaker 3: existing rules. Sometimes, depending on which constraint you're under as

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Speaker 3: a bank, you may be limited in your ability to

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Speaker 3: do very almost recently transactions with treasury is because of

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Speaker 3: the leverage ratio or the capital constraints that is already

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Speaker 3: a factor. I'm not sure it is the good words

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Speaker 3: with these regulations, but we will have to see.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned leverage.

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Speaker 1: When you look across the system, there has been a

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Speaker 1: lot of instances in which leverage has come to the surface,

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Speaker 1: hidden pockets of leverage, if you will, that have led

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Speaker 1: to very large financial calamities, if not systemic, certainly impacting

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Speaker 1: certain markets. DLDI pension blow up for example, being one

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Speaker 1: of them. You saw this in the banking system to

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Speaker 1: the extent that you're still concerned about leverage in the

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Speaker 1: system after such a long set of prolonged low interest rates.

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Speaker 2: What are you still worried about?

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Speaker 3: Well, you know, it's true that leverage is always present

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Speaker 3: when you have something going wrong, but it's not just

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Speaker 3: it's leverage market move. What you had interest rates was

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Speaker 3: a massive move in rates after a very very long

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Speaker 3: period of very very low interest rates, and you would

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Speaker 3: have expected that that would cause some problems. You know,

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Speaker 3: if you look at the problems, they are not that gigantic.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's not like the system came down, right.

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Speaker 3: It is not problems that have been relatively well digested

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Speaker 3: up to this point.

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Speaker 1: But if you take a look at spreads right now

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Speaker 1: and certain kind of higher yielding credit products, you would

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Speaker 1: think that there's no issues. But bankruptcies are still taking

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Speaker 1: hire slowly. Do you think the market is too complacent?

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Speaker 3: Maybe? Maybe? I think so. We haven't seen dederation and

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Speaker 3: credit yet of any maybe in some sectors, maybe leverage finance.

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Speaker 3: We saw some of it maybe in reality state. But

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Speaker 3: if you look at the fundamental so middle market credit.

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Speaker 3: It hasn't really deteriorated that much, and banks are not

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Speaker 3: seen that in their portfolios yet. So we may be

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Speaker 3: too optimistic about that, and we may and we're all

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Speaker 3: waiting for something to happen, but it hasn't happened yet.

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Speaker 3: So we haven't had a real credit cycle, and that

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Speaker 3: is dangerous because if it comes, you know, it would

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Speaker 3: be something that people, many people will not know, will

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Speaker 3: not have had experience dealing with.

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Speaker 1: With our remaining time, I want to talk about some

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Speaker 1: of these changes at City Group because they've been coming fast.

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Speaker 1: They've been coming in the last couple of years. Your

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Speaker 1: security services business has seen uptake and assets under custody.

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Speaker 1: You added one hundred basis points of market share in

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Speaker 1: the last year. Why is this a business that you

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Speaker 1: are betting on so intensely and.

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Speaker 2: What does it say about the future of City Group?

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Speaker 3: Because we have put a lot of emphasis on services businesses,

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Speaker 3: and we mean what we mean by that is businesses

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Speaker 3: that help our clients do their business, their everyday business.

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Speaker 3: In the case of investors, security services is very important,

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Speaker 3: how you handle securities. In the case of corporates is

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Speaker 3: transaction banking and cast management and trade. So in there.

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Speaker 3: What we have is an enormous advantage because of our network,

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Speaker 3: and we're trying to make sure that we leverage that

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Speaker 3: advantage and we provide something that is unique and differentiator

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Speaker 3: in the market. And I think in the last few years,

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Speaker 3: maybe historically particular, particularly in the last few years, we've

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Speaker 3: been able to build on that.

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Speaker 1: Now in the trading business as well. I know we've

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Speaker 1: been talking about it a lot, but seriously, the changes

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Speaker 1: have been very significant.

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Speaker 2: You've gotten out.

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Speaker 1: Of effect strategy, You've gotten out of the business of

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Speaker 1: providing subscription credit lines to pe firms. What is the

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Speaker 1: direction of try What can the market expect for you

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Speaker 1: to make changes in the coming twelve months.

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Speaker 3: Well, if you look at our markets business, we're making

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Speaker 3: more money in markets now that we're making in twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 3: So it is not we haven't done something dramatic to

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Speaker 3: the business that we've had to be very careful about

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Speaker 3: capital usage because of the rules that we mentioned, because

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Speaker 3: we want the business to be profitable obviously, So you

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Speaker 3: know what you see is many times the consequence of

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Speaker 3: paying that much attention to capitals.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes that means turning clients away. How have they been reacting.

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Speaker 3: So we will filter through that so the things that

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Speaker 3: we will get out of our things that are not

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Speaker 3: that important to our clients and that are not producing

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Speaker 3: a lot of returns. If something is very important to

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Speaker 3: our clients and it's not producing returns, we will have

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Speaker 3: second thoughts. But maybe in the end we have to

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Speaker 3: also reduce that activity. So it's a combination of what

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Speaker 3: is important to clients and what is profitable to us,

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Speaker 3: and we have to find the right balance between the two.

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Speaker 1: Paco, thank you so much for your time today.

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Speaker 2: That is Pakoba.

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Speaker 1: He is the CEO of the Institutional Clients Group over

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Speaker 1: at City Fish is Bloomberg