1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,639 Speaker 1: I am going to dispense with introductions. 2 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:04,320 Speaker 2: You know who these people are and it's just we 3 00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:08,039 Speaker 2: get right to it. Other than to say that that 4 00:00:08,440 --> 00:00:11,040 Speaker 2: certainly and I can stay due to I'm reading this. 5 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 1: It's like Jay Powell at a FED meeting. I'm reading 6 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:14,000 Speaker 1: the answer. 7 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 2: Due to unexpected scheduling change, we have a change in 8 00:00:18,239 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: our lineup today. 9 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:20,120 Speaker 1: Mini, you have heard of this. 10 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:26,319 Speaker 2: The IMF Managing Director, doctor Gurgheva and the Minister of 11 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 2: Morocco now you've Feda are unable to join us today. 12 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 2: The IMF will be more than ably represented by the 13 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 2: first Deputy Managing Director. We are thrilled that doctor Gopeneth 14 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 2: could be here. I'm sure you'll do better with Martin 15 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:45,559 Speaker 2: Wolf yesterday. But thank you so much for showing up. 16 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 2: Let's get to it in you should you should be 17 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 2: in the green room and back where these four worthies 18 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 2: are telling me what to do. 19 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 1: So we're going to start with that. 20 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 2: And doctor Gopaneth said, we have to look at the bluebook. 21 00:00:58,360 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 1: We have to look at. 22 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 2: The nuances of their new economic outlook in these times 23 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 2: of fragmentation. What is the view that the IMF has 24 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 2: right now, Doctor Gopiness. 25 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 3: Thank you Tom I'm very happy to step in for 26 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 3: Christlina and to join these impressive women on this panel. 27 00:01:20,200 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 4: In terms of the outlook, we see a mixed picture. 28 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:30,000 Speaker 3: So on the one hand, you have resilience, which is 29 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 3: you have an environment where many countries are close to 30 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 3: full employment, tight labor markets. You're seeing inflation coming down. 31 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:44,320 Speaker 3: A year ago it was way too high and now 32 00:01:44,360 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 3: it certainly has come down a long way since then. 33 00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 3: And we've also seen that the core of the financial 34 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 3: system has held together well. Now, if you asked us 35 00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 3: a year ago whether this would be possible when interest 36 00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 3: rates go up by so much in the globe economy, 37 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 3: I think many people would say, well, that would be 38 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 3: really hard to accomplish. So I think we should first 39 00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 3: acknowledge that resilience. But that said, we are looking at 40 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 3: a global outlook that has weak growth. Now growth is 41 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 3: weak now because of all the tightening and policies, but 42 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 3: what is troubling is the weak growth looking into the 43 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 3: medium term. So we have growth projected around three percent 44 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:27,640 Speaker 3: into the next several years, well below the average that 45 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 3: we've had over the last couple of decades, which was 46 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:34,960 Speaker 3: around three point eight percent. Second, inflation has come down 47 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 3: but the job is not done yet. You still have 48 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:43,160 Speaker 3: sticky services inflation, core inflation. It is going to be 49 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 3: a bumpy road and that's going to be a challenge 50 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 3: for policymakers. And importantly, we live in a world of 51 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 3: a large number of shocks geo political events, the conflict 52 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:57,520 Speaker 3: we're seeing in the Middle East, the consequences. 53 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 4: That could have for energy praises. 54 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 3: Death levels are at record high levels at the same 55 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:06,079 Speaker 3: time that we are in this higher for longer infistrate environment. 56 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 3: So there is a lot for us to watch carefully 57 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 3: and that could go wrong, and that's very important to 58 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 3: keep in mind. 59 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 1: Thank you, Director General. 60 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:18,919 Speaker 2: Let me go to you, as I do on everything 61 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 2: I do. I'm going to give you some reading points 62 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 2: and also essays and articles to read. Of course, doctor 63 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 2: Garjeva has a wonderful essay and Fragmentation. We'll get to 64 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 2: that in a moment. In foreign affairs, but equally important 65 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 2: and more strident and more assertive is the Director General's essay. 66 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 1: On World Trade. 67 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 2: It hearkens back for some of you that know Catherine 68 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:47,760 Speaker 2: Mann of the Bank of England. It parkens back to 69 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:52,119 Speaker 2: Catherine Mann before City Group at Brandeis And I say, 70 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 2: Director general, and I know you want to talk here 71 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 2: about the current trade focus, but the heart of your 72 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 2: work is a route to interdependence, not over dependence, and 73 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 2: that exactly gets to the emotion we're at right now, 74 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 2: isn't it. 75 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 5: Yes, thank you, Tom. 76 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 6: I think what we're trying to say is that during 77 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 6: the past few crisis we've seen and we're still in, 78 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 6: we've seen the vulnerability of supply chains, and that vulnerability 79 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 6: has led to some conclusions that we think we need 80 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 6: to think through again. Some people have concluded that supply 81 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 6: chains are so vulnerable we need to reshow everything to ourselves, 82 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 6: or we need to produce with friends or those who 83 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 6: have similar politics as we do, and yes, some of 84 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 6: that will happen. 85 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 5: They've concluded that trade is the problem. 86 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:00,840 Speaker 6: But what we want to say at the ability our 87 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:07,479 Speaker 6: analysis has shown that the vulnerabilities come from over concentration 88 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 6: in some supply chains and over concentration of production in 89 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:13,159 Speaker 6: some geographies. 90 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 5: If that is. 91 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 6: The root of the problem, then to build resilience, we need, yes, 92 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 6: to deconcentrate and diversify those supply chains, and we are 93 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 6: arguing that a good way to do it is not 94 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 6: just to do it with your friends or those who 95 00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 6: are like you, But to spread your wings, because we 96 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:36,679 Speaker 6: also have something called climate change, and if you close 97 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 6: that to many things, you don't know what phenomenon is 98 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 6: going to happen. So why don't we look at developing 99 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 6: economies that have the right business environment and I insist 100 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 6: on that, and see if we can diversify some supply 101 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 6: chains there so we build resilience. Some of these have 102 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,719 Speaker 6: been left out during the first wave of globalization, so 103 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 6: we can build resilience whilst being inclusive. And we're calling 104 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:06,840 Speaker 6: that reglobalization. So that's the thesis we put forward, so 105 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 6: we can kill two beds with one stone. 106 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 1: Thank you, President Regard. 107 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 2: The last time I saw you, everybody wanted to ask 108 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 2: me about the next rate increase. 109 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: We're not going to do that today either. 110 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 2: We were in Jackson Hole and you were looking at 111 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:23,359 Speaker 2: a reaffirmation of how we do research, how we look forward, 112 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:28,560 Speaker 2: how we prosecute economics across the absolute original experiment that 113 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 2: is Europe, and it is a very unique ECB, particularly 114 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 2: compared to so many other central banks. Give us the 115 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:40,119 Speaker 2: state of play you see now of a Europe yes 116 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:45,200 Speaker 2: years now into a war, but far more the back 117 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 2: and forth, and I do want you to touch We'll 118 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 2: talk about this later. I want you to touch a 119 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 2: migration here, but could please give us the growth outlook 120 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:56,600 Speaker 2: that you see out five years and the prescription Europe 121 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 2: needs to do. 122 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:00,479 Speaker 7: Now, well, thank you so much, Tom, and let me 123 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 7: first of all regret but fully understand and appreciate why 124 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:09,039 Speaker 7: Crystallini is not with us. Invited by his majesty to 125 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 7: attend the opening of the Parliament of Moroco, I think 126 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 7: is a great honor and should just reverberate on the 127 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 7: quality of the institution and if I may say, it's 128 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 7: depth and the depth of its bench, because it gives 129 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 7: us the pleasure of not having another man, excuse me, 130 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:28,119 Speaker 7: but having another woman. 131 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 8: So that's a real test of the. 132 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 7: Explorat You're okay, all right, back back to your question, 133 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 7: because that's what you really want to hear from me. 134 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 7: I would like to pick up on where Guitar was 135 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 7: and to tell you how we are seeing the situation now. 136 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:54,280 Speaker 7: And I put really the emphasis of now after the 137 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 7: three mega crisis that we have gone through in the 138 00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 7: last three years and the most recent developments that we 139 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 7: haven't seen the end of and which will have in 140 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 7: addition to the human toll and the horrible developments that 141 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:12,120 Speaker 7: will take place that will have economic consequences. And it 142 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 7: feels very much like and I want to point to 143 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 7: my notes because I listed them, and I want to 144 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 7: mention them for you what I would call. 145 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:21,480 Speaker 8: The multiple moving parts. 146 00:08:22,040 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 7: And we're just not yet to sure where the chips 147 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 7: will come down, and I would list in my moving 148 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 7: parts the unwinding of large previous shocks. And Gussie has 149 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:38,839 Speaker 7: alluded to some there are multiple previous shocks, from the 150 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:42,840 Speaker 7: disruption to the supply bottomnecks, to the immense volatility of 151 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 7: energy prices, to the pentom demand against the restricted supply, 152 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 7: and all of that happening in a very abrupt. 153 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 8: And sudden way. So that's number one. 154 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 7: Number two something which is affected by lag time or 155 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 7: time lag, whatever you call it. And I'm not here 156 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:06,439 Speaker 7: talking about monetary policy. I'm here talking about the adjustment 157 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 7: of wages to inflation. And there is clearly in everybody, 158 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 7: in all central bankers mind, the fear of the second 159 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 7: round effect. Is it happening, is it likely to happen? 160 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 8: Are we at the peak? 161 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 7: And are we now going to see declining wage increases 162 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 7: returning to real wage allah pre COVID question mark. 163 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:30,080 Speaker 8: That's another moving part. 164 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 7: The third moving part is what I would. 165 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 8: Call the strong. 166 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,560 Speaker 7: You know, we did four hundred and fifty basis points 167 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 7: hike in fifteen months, which is a huge, unprecedented increase, 168 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 7: and this is what I call the strong, but lagged policies. 169 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:52,160 Speaker 7: We haven't seen the end of it yet. We seeing 170 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 7: tightening of financing conditions like it has never happened before. 171 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 7: We know that there is some more in the pipeline 172 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 7: and how it is to impact our economies, how it 173 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 7: will have deflationary impact. This inflationary impact in our region. 174 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 8: Is also to be seen. And the final one, you know, 175 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:13,559 Speaker 8: sort of really. 176 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 7: Ball in the air, is the structural reforms that will 177 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 7: come out of all that. There is what Engozi you 178 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:26,080 Speaker 7: called the did you say reglobalization. I would call it 179 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:30,080 Speaker 7: probably consistent with a good fight against climate change. The 180 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 7: near shoring, not reshuring, not French shoring, but reducing the distance, 181 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 7: having a better handle and control over your supply chain 182 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 7: and the logistic and transportation. 183 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 8: That's just one example. I think the labor market is 184 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 8: also a case in point. 185 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 7: Where we will be seeing structural reforms and with the 186 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 7: people who are joining the market now have different aspirations, 187 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 7: different expectations in than what we had. But you know, 188 00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 7: let's learn the two grandmothers at the table here, all 189 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,679 Speaker 7: of you, the that generation will not want the same thing. 190 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 4: So those are all these balls in the air. 191 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:10,240 Speaker 7: We're not exactly sure how they're going to land, but 192 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 7: certainly we all have to focus on our policies as 193 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 7: far as the European Central Bank is concerned. As I've 194 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 7: said before, our aim, our mission is to return inflation 195 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 7: to two percent medium term, and we will and it 196 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 7: is happening as we speak, and we will hang on 197 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 7: to that be steady long enough and ready to do 198 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:33,720 Speaker 7: more if necessary. 199 00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:37,080 Speaker 2: And this sets up Joyce Chain perfectly, President Legard, and 200 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,560 Speaker 2: I say this with great respect for Bill Rhodes for 201 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 2: years at City Group. Do you ever feel like your 202 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 2: central banker to the world. I'm talking to you, Christine, 203 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 2: oh tonight are you Do you ever feel like your 204 00:11:48,640 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 2: central banker to the world central bank you bring it 205 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 2: over from the ECB over to the major central banks, 206 00:11:56,200 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 2: feeling like they have a profound effect on em and 207 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:04,200 Speaker 2: the rest. You talk about the monetary policy movements that 208 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 2: we saw. 209 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 7: Look, I think central bank governor's presidents, former community, they're 210 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 7: all driven by the same purpose. They have different mandates eventually, 211 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 7: but I think their mission is to procure or restore 212 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:23,959 Speaker 7: price stability so that economic actors of all sorts, consumers, investors, savers, 213 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 7: spenders can actually anticipate what is likely to happen. And 214 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 7: we have to do that in intelligent coordination with the 215 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 7: fiscal authorities. 216 00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:36,600 Speaker 2: Right, Joyce, I'm so happy you're here. You gave us 217 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 2: a bond market that we don't want to talk about. 218 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 2: We're doing a debate on the global economy. You have 219 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:45,560 Speaker 2: a framework with Bob Michael at JP Morgan of a 220 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 2: two and a half inflation adjusted ten year rate of 221 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 2: a five and a half ten year yield out at 222 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 2: some point. For those of you not versed in the 223 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:58,960 Speaker 2: world of Joyce chain, that's stressful. And you and I 224 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 2: talked about Barry king Greens paper at Jackson Hall, which 225 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 2: is a debt walk through an em and I'd like 226 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:09,600 Speaker 2: you to fold the constraints we have on getting to 227 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 2: a more optimistic and better growth over to the challenges 228 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 2: that we see with emerging market debt. 229 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 9: No, thanks so much, and it's just wonderful to be 230 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 9: here with you, Tom, and with Gita, Christine Man, with 231 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 9: ne Gozi. Well, we do think that the Great Moderation 232 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 9: is over. We had put out a target two and 233 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 9: a half percent really yields. We thought it could be 234 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:36,320 Speaker 9: the sort of a medium term target, take five years. 235 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:40,920 Speaker 2: Oh, her mic is off. Okay, well we expected this. 236 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 2: There you go. 237 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:43,680 Speaker 9: Okay, I'm sorry. 238 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 5: Is that better everyone? 239 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:45,920 Speaker 1: It's better? 240 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 5: Okay, great? 241 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 7: No. 242 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:50,839 Speaker 9: So I think part of the problem, Tom is, you know, 243 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:55,000 Speaker 9: the bond vigilantes are back, the Great Moderation is over, 244 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 9: and the focuses come back to the fiscal and debt sustainability, 245 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 9: and actually more talk about that at some of the 246 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 9: market meetings than even about the soft landing and no 247 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:10,319 Speaker 9: recession scenario. And so I think the cost, you know, 248 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:12,560 Speaker 9: there's the resilience, but then there's the cost of that 249 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 9: resilience that's really coming into market focus right now. So 250 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 9: when we've put out you know, real yields, we think 251 00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 9: there'll be two and a half percent. We were at 252 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 9: negative one percent and people ask me, how long do 253 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 9: you think it could take to get there? I said, well, 254 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 9: maybe five years, but you know, we're practically there already. 255 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 9: And I think you know, this is kind of coming 256 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 9: at an inconvenient time. You have the thirty percent increase 257 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:41,280 Speaker 9: in treasury supply on long duration at a point where 258 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 9: you know, the Fed's not buying, the banks are not 259 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 9: gaining the pause. That's the institutional demand isn't there. And 260 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 9: that has very clearly and put the focus back on 261 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 9: the debt dynamics, the debt sustainability, and the fiscal debt 262 00:14:56,560 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 9: and the cost of servicing the debt given the size 263 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 9: of the fiscal deficit, and the focus isn't on the 264 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 9: emerging market so much as it is on the advanced economies, 265 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 9: particularly on the United States right now. I mean, in 266 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 9: this period, I think em has been very resilient, but 267 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 9: I mean, but we've also seen limping along, you know, 268 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 9: fracture my foot, so relate to that the limping along 269 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 9: as well, where the medium term growth that you know 270 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 9: does not look as optimistic, but we are. You know, 271 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 9: once again you're getting a focus back on whether the 272 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 9: financing is going to be more problematic. And it's hard 273 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 9: to talk about emerging markets in one block because there's 274 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 9: clearly the frontier market countries and then there is the 275 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 9: you know, em X, China, the middle income countries which 276 00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 9: have done a very good job. They started hiking a 277 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 9: lot earlier. We think, you know, there's probably one hundred 278 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 9: and fifty basis points of easing they can do between 279 00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 9: now and the end of next year. But you do 280 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 9: have the debt dynamics that are very much back in 281 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,240 Speaker 9: focus and the debt service. But that's not just an 282 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 9: emerging markets problem. It's an advanced economy of problem as well. 283 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 1: It's interesting. I want you to fold this in and 284 00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 1: get it well knows. 285 00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 2: There's a blue book, the green book, the bunker, and 286 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 2: I wish you'd print him still instead of just digital 287 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 2: because I actually love the appendices and all this the 288 00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:23,479 Speaker 2: great work of your team at the IMF. 289 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:25,920 Speaker 1: But I'm going to go all to bs Adrian on 290 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 1: you right now. 291 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 2: I listen to what Joyce is saying, and I listen 292 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,640 Speaker 2: to what I see on the Bloomberg screen, and the 293 00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 2: bond market is speaking about this growth constraint we have 294 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 2: on a hyacan basis, how do we clear this system 295 00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 2: to move on to a better place. 296 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 8: Tom. 297 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 3: The bond market is reflecting many things. For one, it's 298 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 3: come to accept the fact that interest rates will have 299 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 3: to be higher for longo, something policymakers have been been 300 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 3: clear about, but it's. 301 00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 4: Taken some time to get into the market. 302 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 3: But the other aspect, and this is the novel piece 303 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 3: that Joyce pointed to, is we are seeing some pricing 304 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:08,400 Speaker 3: in of fiscal risks, which is usually unheard of when 305 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 3: you think of the US market. You have a large 306 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:15,359 Speaker 3: amount of debt being issued at a time when you 307 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:19,159 Speaker 3: have quantitative tightening being done by central banks, at a 308 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:23,440 Speaker 3: time when Japan's rates have gone up, and therefore their 309 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 3: demand for US treasuries are somewhat weaker. In that environment, 310 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:34,400 Speaker 3: what we're seeing is pressure on eels at the long horizon. 311 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 4: Right So, right now there is a. 312 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 3: Huge demand for cash, which is on the short end 313 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 3: of it, but we're seeing a lot more volatility on 314 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 3: the long end. And I want to take that to 315 00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 3: a kind of step back and make a broader point here, 316 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,560 Speaker 3: which is that if you look kind of around the world, 317 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:52,440 Speaker 3: particularly true the US, but many other countries, we're seeing 318 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 3: a looming mismatch between the spending needs of countries and 319 00:17:57,359 --> 00:17:59,440 Speaker 3: the resources that they will have to pay for it. 320 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,760 Speaker 3: It was a decade after the global financial crisis when 321 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:05,800 Speaker 3: you know that was less of a problem because you 322 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 3: could borrow at ultra low interest rates and that is 323 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,680 Speaker 3: not an issue. But now you're borrowing at much higher 324 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,600 Speaker 3: rates and you have weak growth prospects. 325 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:18,439 Speaker 4: So this is a difficult place for countries to be. 326 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,800 Speaker 3: There's a challenge, particularly for emerging and developing economies who 327 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:26,919 Speaker 3: have you know, important development goals that they have to 328 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:28,480 Speaker 3: meet to meet the climate transition. 329 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:31,000 Speaker 4: But I think it is an important time for. 330 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 3: Governments to think about how they're going to pay for 331 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:38,479 Speaker 3: all these spending needs without relying as much as they 332 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 3: did on borrowing. 333 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 2: And it goes I look at this and I look 334 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 2: back at your wonderful article in Foreign Affairs. 335 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 1: I can't say enough about it, folks. 336 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:51,280 Speaker 2: And there are these phrases from another time and place 337 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 2: gad most favored nation status, and now we have, as 338 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 2: you write about, almost a blockism from. 339 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 1: Pre World War two. 340 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 2: What is going to be the process that WTO can 341 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:09,639 Speaker 2: provide to get us to a better place. I'm very 342 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 2: here in Americash, I'm very much listening for the processes 343 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 2: recommended to jump start us out five years to better 344 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 2: trade situation. 345 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:20,439 Speaker 1: What would it be? 346 00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 5: Well, thank you, Tom. I think the one thing we 347 00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 5: don't recommend. 348 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 6: Let me start with that is more fragmented trade, because 349 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 6: if we have the world, if we have trade fragmenting 350 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 6: and people just trading with each other in blocks of 351 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:45,480 Speaker 6: people similar to themselves, this fragmentation. We've done some work 352 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:48,679 Speaker 6: it and the IMF has done some work that shows 353 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 6: that the real losses to real global GDP in the 354 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:56,040 Speaker 6: long term as substantial five percent in a case they 355 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 6: had seven percent, and for emerging markets and developing content 356 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,440 Speaker 6: is it would be in double digits. So what we 357 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 6: and I will not stop saying this, it will become 358 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:12,360 Speaker 6: boring because we think that any fragmentation, if any if 359 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 6: fragmentation spreads, then definitely we will not be able to 360 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,919 Speaker 6: get back on the good path. What I think we 361 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 6: should look at to get us back in terms of trade, 362 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 6: we need to avoid more protectionism. We need to avoid 363 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:34,919 Speaker 6: people retreating and thinking that, look, things are going so 364 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 6: badly that I have to make sure that I rely 365 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:44,040 Speaker 6: as much of myself as possible. Because we've seen that 366 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:48,560 Speaker 6: global trade has rendered benefits in the long term. For 367 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 6: the past seventy five years, we've seen people lifted out 368 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,639 Speaker 6: of poverty due to trade. So let's not throw away 369 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:57,920 Speaker 6: what has worked in the past, but let's try make 370 00:20:57,960 --> 00:20:58,399 Speaker 6: it better. 371 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:00,640 Speaker 5: That's why we talked about the regal mobalization. 372 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 6: So let's avoid protectionism and putting barriers. 373 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,160 Speaker 5: The free flow of trade is what we. 374 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:10,119 Speaker 6: Need if we really want our economies to move. I 375 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:12,160 Speaker 6: think the second thing I want to say is that 376 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:15,280 Speaker 6: there are green shoots within trade, and that's what we're 377 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:16,680 Speaker 6: looking at at the WTO. 378 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 5: We look at. 379 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:21,160 Speaker 6: Trade and even though you know, our recent forecast has 380 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 6: downgraded the good straight the volume of good straight from 381 00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,560 Speaker 6: one point seven percent to zero point eight which is 382 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,840 Speaker 6: quite a dramatic downgrade and goes along with all the 383 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,160 Speaker 6: new pessimism that is emerging. 384 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 5: But within that there's something very. 385 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 6: Interesting happening, and that is the growth of digital trade 386 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:43,640 Speaker 6: and digitally delivered services trade, which is going at eight 387 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:47,919 Speaker 6: percent perannum. Out of thirty two trillion dollars of trade, 388 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 6: we've got twenty five trillion that is goods, twelve trillion services, 389 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:56,080 Speaker 6: and of the twelve trillion, four trillion almost is digitally 390 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:57,160 Speaker 6: delivered services. 391 00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 5: So this is growing so fast. We are saying, what 392 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 5: can we. 393 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 6: Do to make sure that we fostered this trade, that 394 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 6: we make sure micro, medium and smaller enterprises are women 395 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,480 Speaker 6: on enterprises that are the most, that are. 396 00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 5: The ones using this trade the most. That we remove. 397 00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:19,200 Speaker 6: Barriers in their way, and that we put a level 398 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,160 Speaker 6: playing field so that this trade can grow even more. 399 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 5: So, that's the green. 400 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,160 Speaker 6: Shoot, and I think as we have all this spessimism, 401 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,560 Speaker 6: we should look at some of these optimistic areas. 402 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,200 Speaker 2: With the time, we've got your twenty one minutes left, folks, 403 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,200 Speaker 2: I'm trying to get an extension right now. We'll see 404 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,160 Speaker 2: if we get there, and GOOZI I'm going to come 405 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 2: back to you at the end of this effort to 406 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:43,960 Speaker 2: speak of the huge opportunity of trade within Africa, and 407 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,760 Speaker 2: particularly when I look at the span of the IMF 408 00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:50,119 Speaker 2: here from Nairobi fifty years ago over to where we 409 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,439 Speaker 2: are now. Christian Lagard, when I first met you, you 410 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 2: had just been at It's a few years ago, and 411 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 2: I think what's so important here is we have institutional forces. 412 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:09,920 Speaker 2: And Nagosi within her wonderful article really emphasizes institutional strength. 413 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 2: I know you've written about it as well, but few 414 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,919 Speaker 2: have been in the trenches of actual trade policy like 415 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,560 Speaker 2: you have with your service to the Republic of France. 416 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:22,600 Speaker 2: What has to be the new trade policy for the 417 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 2: nations of Europe and for that matter, wealthy nations worldwide. 418 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 2: What needs to be the new trade initiative that gets 419 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 2: us to global economic growth as goes he frames it. 420 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:41,120 Speaker 8: Thank you Tom for that. I believe. 421 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,159 Speaker 7: You can check me a bit off guard because you 422 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 7: take me back to my days as a trade minister. 423 00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:51,119 Speaker 8: I would say two things. 424 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 7: One is implement the directives and the regulatory frameworks that 425 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:03,000 Speaker 7: exist in order to free up the providing of services 426 00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:04,440 Speaker 7: throughout the region. 427 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 8: There is a service Directive which has. 428 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 7: Been around for years and years, of which maybe sixty 429 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:14,960 Speaker 7: percent is actually implemented. If only the whole directive was 430 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:19,400 Speaker 7: implemented without reservations, without caveats, without carve out, I think 431 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 7: we will really lift growth in a significant way, whether 432 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:27,399 Speaker 7: in relation to goods or in relation to digital because 433 00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,679 Speaker 7: services are largely now digitally supported. 434 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 8: That would be I say number one. Number two. 435 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 7: I think that if investment, and granted currently the financing 436 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 7: of investment is difficult, but if investments were to be 437 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 7: focused on the green transition plus the transition towards a 438 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,600 Speaker 7: digital economy, I think there would also be a significant 439 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 7: upside as a result of that. 440 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:53,639 Speaker 8: And to pick up on ANGOZI. 441 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 7: I think in the digital world the two things that 442 00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:01,000 Speaker 7: need to be improved. One is is we need a 443 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:06,200 Speaker 7: better governance. We have seen one trial after another one 444 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 7: criminal otherwise that the digital world can lead to abuses, 445 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:14,560 Speaker 7: including in financial services. So governance is one where we 446 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 7: need to make progress, and we need to make progress collectively. 447 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:21,400 Speaker 7: Number two, and the European Central Bank spends a lot 448 00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:25,160 Speaker 7: of effort and time on that. We also central bankers, 449 00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:27,840 Speaker 7: the holders of currency. 450 00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:30,640 Speaker 8: We need to move to the digital area and we. 451 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:34,640 Speaker 7: Need to be ready to launch CBDC for US it's 452 00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:39,560 Speaker 7: digital euro in relatively short order, so that we can 453 00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:44,119 Speaker 7: make it safe and have a monetary anchor that has 454 00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:46,680 Speaker 7: digital traits as well. 455 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:47,840 Speaker 1: Joece, all of this. 456 00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 2: Is wonderful, and I think of ben Waku right and 457 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,920 Speaker 2: what they're doing at bis Raphael our own bitcoin and 458 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:57,439 Speaker 2: arrest has been really thought provoking for me, except then 459 00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 2: I have to look at my Bloomberg to see where 460 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:02,920 Speaker 2: the bid is named. The piece of paper I bought 461 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,679 Speaker 2: the Austria ninety seven year I thought that would be 462 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:09,240 Speaker 2: a good thing. I'm down seventy percent. That's worked out. 463 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 2: But the fact is, with all of these economic thoughts. 464 00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,320 Speaker 2: We go back to the screen at JP Morgan that 465 00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,280 Speaker 2: shows a bid and an ask how deep are these 466 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:23,200 Speaker 2: markets and do you worry about jump conditions? What Peter 467 00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,480 Speaker 2: orzag would say we get off the glide paths were 468 00:26:26,520 --> 00:26:30,880 Speaker 2: normal and that we get it not inflammatory crisis, but 469 00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:34,359 Speaker 2: that we are in enough of a liquidity issue where 470 00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,959 Speaker 2: there's jump conditions versus the smoothness we're addicted to. 471 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,719 Speaker 9: Well, I think, you know, look higher for longer. It's 472 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 9: also harder for longer for emerging markets. So there's sort 473 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:45,720 Speaker 9: who answers that question. 474 00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:46,880 Speaker 8: There is first that. 475 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 9: You have this crowding out problem to begin with. I mean, 476 00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,280 Speaker 9: if you can be in cash and get five and 477 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:55,480 Speaker 9: a half percent or six percent from a US corporate bond, 478 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:59,200 Speaker 9: and you have an emerging markets local currency index that 479 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,720 Speaker 9: has a yield to six point seven percent, then you're 480 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 9: going to see say things you know, go back into 481 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 9: safe assets rather than to other places. And that makes 482 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 9: the challenge a lot harder for many of the issues 483 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:14,200 Speaker 9: that we've talked about this week, how you get climate financing, 484 00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:19,320 Speaker 9: how you fund the debt for the distressed countries. It's 485 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,159 Speaker 9: just made the bar that much higher to begin with, 486 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,000 Speaker 9: and then you have the plumbing question, the second part 487 00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:27,760 Speaker 9: that you asked about, and you've had a fundamental shift 488 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 9: in the market. You know, it's gone electronic. The primary 489 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:36,000 Speaker 9: dealers are not able to necessarily absorb you know, the 490 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,439 Speaker 9: size of these increased auctions as well. So you have 491 00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,760 Speaker 9: a market that overshoots. And so even though you've seen 492 00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 9: you know, really good management in policies from emerging markets countries, 493 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,919 Speaker 9: that whole issue of financing and how you use the 494 00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:55,480 Speaker 9: capital markets becomes much more complicated when you can just 495 00:27:55,480 --> 00:28:00,320 Speaker 9: get such high yields on short duration and cash and 496 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:02,480 Speaker 9: so you know a lot of the dilemma I think 497 00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 9: that comes out that's thing complicated by the liquidity question, 498 00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:10,399 Speaker 9: that you get these overshoots and market volatility where you 499 00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 9: get these surges in the in the moves as well, 500 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:17,679 Speaker 9: and so I think it is a much more complicated environment. 501 00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,600 Speaker 9: That there's the really good management that has been part 502 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:24,399 Speaker 9: of it, and we've seen the real resilience in the 503 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,720 Speaker 9: emerging markets countries, and then there's some of the realities 504 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:33,359 Speaker 9: of crowding out alternative investments, and then the liquidity considerations 505 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,800 Speaker 9: in this type of market for what can actually be 506 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,440 Speaker 9: transacted for some of these longer term goals. 507 00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:42,080 Speaker 2: I look at this gate up and you know, with 508 00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:47,200 Speaker 2: your work at Harvard University before the International Monetary Fund. 509 00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:48,760 Speaker 1: And I look at Jason Furman. 510 00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:52,040 Speaker 2: With you yesterday, with Martin Wolf teaching a small economics 511 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,760 Speaker 2: course up at Harvard which is ageless and timeless, with 512 00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,680 Speaker 2: Martin Feldstein and others, And then I think of a 513 00:28:57,720 --> 00:28:58,760 Speaker 2: textbook like MANQ. 514 00:28:59,160 --> 00:28:59,800 Speaker 1: Did you have man Q? 515 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 2: Was your first macro effort? What was your first textbook? 516 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:05,120 Speaker 4: My first six book? 517 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:06,000 Speaker 8: This was back in India. 518 00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:07,120 Speaker 4: I know I didn't have MANQUE. 519 00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 1: Okay, well maybe they have Manque in India as well. 520 00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 1: We'll see. But to go with greg MANQ, it's a 521 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,080 Speaker 1: simpler textbook thirty years ago. 522 00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,520 Speaker 2: And you've talked to me about the complexities now that 523 00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,400 Speaker 2: filter across all of this, and it struggled to get 524 00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 2: to a better economic growth, to find the complexities you're focused. 525 00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:25,640 Speaker 1: On right now. 526 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:29,040 Speaker 4: So in terms of. 527 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,880 Speaker 3: Policy making, which is a lot what Gregor also goes 528 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:35,840 Speaker 3: into in his textbook, which is looking at how does 529 00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:37,960 Speaker 3: monetary policy work and fiscal policy work? 530 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,680 Speaker 4: I'd like to think that there was a time during. 531 00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:47,560 Speaker 3: The Great Moderation, but also after the GFC, when it 532 00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,720 Speaker 3: was somewhat easier to be a central banker than it 533 00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 3: is now for President Legard, and it was somewhat easier 534 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:56,360 Speaker 3: to be a finance minister than it is now for 535 00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:57,440 Speaker 3: many finance ministers. 536 00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:58,120 Speaker 8: And why is that? 537 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 3: Which one is We're now in a world with way 538 00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:06,680 Speaker 3: more supply sharks than we've been used to. It's a 539 00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:11,200 Speaker 3: much more volatile environment, and therefore the decisions and. 540 00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,200 Speaker 4: Trade offs are much more complicated. 541 00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 3: And how are you going to bring down inflation while 542 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:19,440 Speaker 3: at the same time making sure that employment doesn't collapse. 543 00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:23,080 Speaker 3: That's going to be a much hardest decision. So the end, 544 00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:27,680 Speaker 3: you know, the error kind of low forever, let's look 545 00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:29,040 Speaker 3: through supply shocks. 546 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 4: All of that has changed. 547 00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 3: And I don't think uh in a president of God 548 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:35,800 Speaker 3: can come in with Christine can come in. Which is 549 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,200 Speaker 3: you know, which you look through supply shocks at this time? 550 00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,960 Speaker 3: I think that's a that's a good question. If you're 551 00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:45,240 Speaker 3: a finance minister, you're no longer being able to borrow 552 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:49,160 Speaker 3: at dirt cheap interest rates. We give the example of 553 00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 3: the US, which is the safe acet issuer. Right, if 554 00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:55,040 Speaker 3: you look at debt servicing costs, which is the amount 555 00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:59,760 Speaker 3: of revenue. Government revenue that goes to pay interest payments 556 00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,520 Speaker 3: on that was eight percent in twenty nineteen is projected 557 00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:06,920 Speaker 3: to go up to fourteen percent in twenty twenty eight. 558 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:10,640 Speaker 3: That's a combination of debt growing but also the higher 559 00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,160 Speaker 3: interest rates that you're paying on it that makes it 560 00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 3: much harder. That's the US, and we're looking at other 561 00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:18,520 Speaker 3: countries and other emerging markets who are borrowing a much 562 00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:20,760 Speaker 3: higher It's even though the spreads have not drawn up 563 00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 3: that much, the fact that their basic interest rates that 564 00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:27,200 Speaker 3: they're paying are much higher is making life much. 565 00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:27,560 Speaker 4: Harder for them. 566 00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:30,240 Speaker 3: And then of course low income countries, we're looking at 567 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:34,840 Speaker 3: interest payments, debt servicings of twenty percent of revenue, so 568 00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:38,160 Speaker 3: much harder. The trade offs for being a finance minister, 569 00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:40,680 Speaker 3: and all of this is happening in mine and for 570 00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:47,560 Speaker 3: all of us. With geopolitical tensions and fragmentation, I completely. 571 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:49,960 Speaker 3: I mean, I'm with Angozi that we have to work 572 00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:53,280 Speaker 3: very hard to lean against the coupling in the world. 573 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:55,680 Speaker 4: But I also do think is. 574 00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:57,840 Speaker 3: The time that countries will need to adapt to the 575 00:31:57,920 --> 00:31:59,000 Speaker 3: changes that are happening. 576 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:02,280 Speaker 4: There are real change that are going on. We have three. 577 00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:05,760 Speaker 3: Thousand new trade restrictions that were put in twenty put 578 00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 3: in place in twenty twenty two, which is three times 579 00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,840 Speaker 3: the number that was put in twenty nineteen. There's all 580 00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:15,040 Speaker 3: kinds of tit for tat reactions in trade policy. 581 00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:17,160 Speaker 4: When you know, when the US or. 582 00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:20,640 Speaker 3: When China or when the European Union puts in place 583 00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:24,440 Speaker 3: a subsidy measure, there's a seventy three percent chance that 584 00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:27,320 Speaker 3: one of the other countries will retaliate within twelve months. 585 00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:30,840 Speaker 3: So we're in that world, which means countries will have 586 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:32,920 Speaker 3: to adapt to this new landscape. 587 00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:34,920 Speaker 4: You'll have to try to diversify. 588 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,720 Speaker 3: You will have instead of besides just you know, de 589 00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:41,600 Speaker 3: risking your financial making sure you have. 590 00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:43,520 Speaker 8: Risks. 591 00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 3: You've contained the risks of the financial system, you have 592 00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:48,560 Speaker 3: to look at containing the risks in your supply chains. 593 00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:52,400 Speaker 3: You countries will have to turn towards domestic resource mobilization 594 00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:55,320 Speaker 3: because they're going to have to figure out get the 595 00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:58,760 Speaker 3: old business done, which is raise tax revenues. So I 596 00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:02,000 Speaker 3: think it's a much more challenge environment to get policy done. 597 00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:03,760 Speaker 3: And let's not forget you know, if you go back 598 00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,000 Speaker 3: and think of the origins of economics and back to 599 00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:10,640 Speaker 3: Adam Smith, and all of us have grown up on 600 00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:11,680 Speaker 3: that tradition too. 601 00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,200 Speaker 4: That was done at the time when there were only. 602 00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:17,080 Speaker 3: Human beings and human interactions, and now we're entering the 603 00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:22,000 Speaker 3: world of artificial intelligence and all the complications that come 604 00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:25,160 Speaker 3: with that. So I think that also leads to fundamentals 605 00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:28,720 Speaker 3: wethink of how we think of economics presently. 606 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,720 Speaker 2: Guard you are furiously taking notes over there, you comment 607 00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:33,480 Speaker 2: on this place. 608 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,040 Speaker 1: I've got about eight ways to go here, but I'll 609 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:37,800 Speaker 1: let you choose which way to go that. 610 00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,080 Speaker 7: I always try to take notes when there are intelligent 611 00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:45,719 Speaker 7: people around me, and they are I will follow up 612 00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:48,760 Speaker 7: from where guitar left it in terms of how more 613 00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,000 Speaker 7: difficult it is today than maybe it was, and we 614 00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:53,800 Speaker 7: tend to look at the world thinking, oh, it was 615 00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:54,840 Speaker 7: so much better before. 616 00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:58,160 Speaker 8: I think what's critically. 617 00:33:57,680 --> 00:34:01,640 Speaker 7: Important is that we have an open mind and we 618 00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:03,680 Speaker 7: have the humility to accept that we. 619 00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:04,480 Speaker 8: Don't know it all. 620 00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:08,919 Speaker 7: Number One, the instruments that we have been using need 621 00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:13,359 Speaker 7: to change and evolve and are just and integrate new 622 00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:15,840 Speaker 7: components that we haven't had on our plate. 623 00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:17,400 Speaker 8: And I think that applies to models. 624 00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:22,120 Speaker 7: That applies also to our communication, That applies to many 625 00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,640 Speaker 7: factors that certainly have an impact on our job as 626 00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:32,239 Speaker 7: central bankers, and if we do all that, I'm sure 627 00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:35,919 Speaker 7: that we can get to where our mission drives us 628 00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:36,200 Speaker 7: to be. 629 00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:38,560 Speaker 8: And I'm not going to repeat. 630 00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:42,880 Speaker 7: Myself, but it's something that is embedded in the DNA 631 00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:46,160 Speaker 7: of central bankers, which is that price stability obsession that 632 00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,960 Speaker 7: we have in order to facilitate the unleashing of economic 633 00:34:50,040 --> 00:34:54,439 Speaker 7: forces for the better. I would just mention one thing, 634 00:34:55,160 --> 00:35:01,520 Speaker 7: which is time management. I mean, the whole debate about 635 00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:04,960 Speaker 7: transitory team not transitory team, and all that is in 636 00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:08,000 Speaker 7: a way or reflection of our relation. 637 00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,320 Speaker 8: To the passing of time and. 638 00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:16,799 Speaker 7: The movement that we have observed more recently from our audiences, 639 00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:20,799 Speaker 7: whether it's people in the trade analyst observers, but also 640 00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:26,840 Speaker 7: the general public, which expect instant results, instant gratification in 641 00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,560 Speaker 7: the face of what monetary policy can do, in the 642 00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:33,160 Speaker 7: face of how market forces respond, which has always an 643 00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:40,440 Speaker 7: element of time lag and requires patience and to actually 644 00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:42,799 Speaker 7: be able to communicate that and come up with the 645 00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:46,359 Speaker 7: narrative that will be convincing enough so that those who 646 00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:51,800 Speaker 7: determine inflation expectations, for instance, appreciate that patience will be needed. 647 00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,319 Speaker 8: That is not going to just happen. 648 00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:57,839 Speaker 7: Instantly as you move from one game to the other. 649 00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:00,840 Speaker 7: I think it's something that is challenge for all of 650 00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:02,160 Speaker 7: US policymakers. 651 00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:03,600 Speaker 1: Director General. 652 00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:08,520 Speaker 2: Fifty years ago, the IMF, it's not that it was lost, 653 00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:10,920 Speaker 2: but it was looking for a new path. In nineteen 654 00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:16,719 Speaker 2: seventy three and Nairobi, Johann Vittevin discovered that path. It 655 00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:19,840 Speaker 2: was a new place for the IMF to go. And 656 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:24,600 Speaker 2: here we are in Africa at Marrakesh looking for a 657 00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:29,960 Speaker 2: new path and in conversation after conversation, the great opportunity 658 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:34,360 Speaker 2: is Africa. The statistics are there, you have them beautifully 659 00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:37,200 Speaker 2: in your essays and your work at WTO. Frankly, before 660 00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:42,040 Speaker 2: that year, historic work on corruption tell us the opportunity 661 00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:45,240 Speaker 2: in Africa is we find economic growth. 662 00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:50,280 Speaker 6: Well, maybe that's a good note to end on. Since 663 00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,200 Speaker 6: we're the content, I do want to build on what 664 00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:55,759 Speaker 6: Guitan and Christine have said on the fact that it's 665 00:36:55,800 --> 00:37:00,360 Speaker 6: a very challenging environment. I think the reason we're preach 666 00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:03,680 Speaker 6: so much and try to remind people that seventy five 667 00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:07,520 Speaker 6: percent of world trade still takes place on WTO terms, 668 00:37:07,920 --> 00:37:11,480 Speaker 6: So let's remember that or most favored nation terms seventy 669 00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:15,200 Speaker 6: five percent, so that's nothing to sneeze it. But yes, 670 00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:19,160 Speaker 6: there are emerging signs of trouble. So I really agree 671 00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,799 Speaker 6: with that, and I think that those who will lose 672 00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:25,240 Speaker 6: out the most are the poorer countries, which is why 673 00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:28,759 Speaker 6: it is incumbent on us. We're here in Africa. There 674 00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:32,239 Speaker 6: are many countries that are debt distressed. Africa's share of 675 00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:36,040 Speaker 6: world trade is three percent and actually fell below that 676 00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:42,239 Speaker 6: during the pandemic. And we're building this beautiful African Continental 677 00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:46,120 Speaker 6: Free Trade Area that you refer to fifty four countries, 678 00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:49,120 Speaker 6: the largest in terms of the number of countries, which 679 00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:54,440 Speaker 6: offers hope that Africa, if it's able to remove the barriers, 680 00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:58,400 Speaker 6: can trade better with itself because inter African trade is 681 00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:02,080 Speaker 6: anywhere from sixteen to twenty percent, and trade better with 682 00:38:02,160 --> 00:38:04,960 Speaker 6: the world, and this will help to lift up incomes 683 00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:05,960 Speaker 6: within the continent. 684 00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:08,799 Speaker 5: However, this will only. 685 00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:11,640 Speaker 6: Happen if we can add value to the products. 686 00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:14,399 Speaker 5: We can't tread the same things to each other. 687 00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:18,000 Speaker 6: You know, we had sport raw materials and commodities. But 688 00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:21,239 Speaker 6: the hope here is creating a large market of one 689 00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:22,640 Speaker 6: point four billion people. 690 00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:27,680 Speaker 5: The hope here is the young age of the population. 691 00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:34,680 Speaker 6: Europe is aging, the US is kind of in the middle. 692 00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:38,719 Speaker 6: US has been receiving a lot of immigration, so they're smart, 693 00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:40,600 Speaker 6: or they used to be smart about it. 694 00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:43,640 Speaker 1: Do you care to expand on that? 695 00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:49,280 Speaker 6: China is aging, you know, so the action Japan is aging. 696 00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:51,960 Speaker 5: So the action is here. 697 00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:56,399 Speaker 6: We have the young people, we can the productivity. If 698 00:38:56,440 --> 00:39:01,120 Speaker 6: we harness that resource, we can see productivity gains that 699 00:39:01,200 --> 00:39:02,399 Speaker 6: are quite substantial. 700 00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:04,080 Speaker 5: So those are two things. 701 00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:06,759 Speaker 6: How do we use our human resources and harness our 702 00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:09,680 Speaker 6: young people so they're not jumping into the Sahara or 703 00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:13,560 Speaker 6: the Mediterranean to go somewhere else. How do we add 704 00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:17,480 Speaker 6: value to our products? And there's a chance now you know, 705 00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:21,480 Speaker 6: we have some critical supply chains. Yeah, critical raw materials 706 00:39:21,520 --> 00:39:24,120 Speaker 6: and minerals that the world needs if it's going to 707 00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:26,000 Speaker 6: reduce carbon emissions. 708 00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,120 Speaker 5: While we should add value. 709 00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,319 Speaker 6: To those products here rather than exporting them. 710 00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:32,560 Speaker 5: So there's a lot of hope here. 711 00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:37,000 Speaker 6: For green energy, green hydrogen, critical minerals. Add value to 712 00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:40,799 Speaker 6: our products here, create jobs on the continent. We have 713 00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:44,120 Speaker 6: young people who are very savvy with fintech and the 714 00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:46,040 Speaker 6: tech sector. 715 00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:48,680 Speaker 5: You can see the more I talk, the more excited 716 00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:49,120 Speaker 5: I get. 717 00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:51,000 Speaker 8: So yes, I. 718 00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:53,719 Speaker 6: Think the future is here, but we have a lot 719 00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,440 Speaker 6: of work to do ourselves. Nobody's going to hand this 720 00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:59,480 Speaker 6: to us. We have to be you know, governance is 721 00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:02,800 Speaker 6: an issue we talked about, yes better, but we also 722 00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:05,640 Speaker 6: are suffering from problems we did not create. We didn't 723 00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:09,319 Speaker 6: create the pandemic. We didn't create Well, we have the 724 00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:14,360 Speaker 6: debt and you know what happens outside right has a 725 00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:17,359 Speaker 6: great impact on that. So we also need to have 726 00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:22,680 Speaker 6: that support to manage the debt situation that the countries 727 00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:23,080 Speaker 6: are in. 728 00:40:23,640 --> 00:40:24,439 Speaker 5: Sort that out. 729 00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:28,160 Speaker 6: Give some physical space to countries so they can actually 730 00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:32,240 Speaker 6: actually spend on education, health and the things that matter, 731 00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:33,680 Speaker 6: and on the young people. 732 00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:36,040 Speaker 1: I was going to give you the last word, but 733 00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:37,160 Speaker 1: I got the leguard. 734 00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:41,799 Speaker 4: This actually, for instance, from it for a microsecond. 735 00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:42,880 Speaker 1: Because you want to take more than a Microsoft. 736 00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:45,640 Speaker 7: I want to bring Nadia Fitta's voice here. She was 737 00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:48,200 Speaker 7: supposed to be on a Panland. She's not Minister Finance, 738 00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:52,080 Speaker 7: Mister Finance of Morocco. She's in Parliament for the first 739 00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:55,399 Speaker 7: session and I think following up from what Tengozi said, 740 00:40:55,440 --> 00:41:01,160 Speaker 7: she would probably mention that in a few years, probably 741 00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:05,440 Speaker 7: a short while actually a first entirely made in Morocco 742 00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:09,880 Speaker 7: electronic vehicle will be produced and will be shipped outside 743 00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,439 Speaker 7: of Tanje, which is an extraordinary platform out there. 744 00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:16,720 Speaker 1: Thank you, Director do Opener. For final word to use. 745 00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:23,520 Speaker 3: Is we've covered a lot of ground here. I think 746 00:41:23,640 --> 00:41:26,719 Speaker 3: we let's try and end on on a positive re note, 747 00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:31,080 Speaker 3: which is one in line with what Joyce said. It 748 00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:34,360 Speaker 3: is absolutely the case that emerging markets and developing countries 749 00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:39,000 Speaker 3: have demonstrated remarkable resilience over the last few years, and 750 00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:43,359 Speaker 3: it is an outcome of having put in place good 751 00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:48,719 Speaker 3: macro policies like central bank independence, inflation targeting frameworks. 752 00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:51,920 Speaker 4: So I think a takeaway is that. 753 00:41:51,880 --> 00:41:53,520 Speaker 3: When you do the right things, you can build the 754 00:41:53,560 --> 00:41:57,600 Speaker 3: resilience in your economies, and that is a lesson to 755 00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:02,160 Speaker 3: be taken away and expanded on for all countries. Secondly, 756 00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:03,960 Speaker 3: I would just said we need to get the unfinished 757 00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:07,960 Speaker 3: business done. It's always hard to get structural reforms done. 758 00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:11,720 Speaker 3: It's always been hard to strengthen the wto even more, 759 00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:16,239 Speaker 3: it's been hard to rely on domestic resources and through 760 00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:21,160 Speaker 3: raising revenue to meet your needs for countries. But this 761 00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:23,880 Speaker 3: is the moment when countries will have to take difficult 762 00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:26,000 Speaker 3: decisions just given the environment we live. 763 00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:28,840 Speaker 9: In and I can just add a quick point on 764 00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:32,000 Speaker 9: just the local currency markets and the importance of the 765 00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:35,799 Speaker 9: local currency markets for the financing, because one reason why 766 00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:39,160 Speaker 9: emerging market's assets have actually been less volatile than the 767 00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,839 Speaker 9: advanced economies was during taper tantrum, there was about seven 768 00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:46,759 Speaker 9: hundred billion dollars of portfolio flows, but if you look 769 00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:49,799 Speaker 9: at from twenty twenty one to now, you've had about 770 00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:52,439 Speaker 9: two hundred billion. So you actually look at the way 771 00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:55,080 Speaker 9: that emerging markets has performed in the midst of this 772 00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:57,239 Speaker 9: bond market selof it's been quite good. 773 00:42:57,280 --> 00:42:58,279 Speaker 5: And when you go back to. 774 00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:01,400 Speaker 9: Your point and very Ikoven's point on the dead it 775 00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:02,960 Speaker 9: is are going to just have to be a greater 776 00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:05,560 Speaker 9: dependency on those local currency markets. 777 00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:07,440 Speaker 2: Thank you and to all of you. Thank you, to 778 00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:09,359 Speaker 2: doctor Gerdieva, thank you so much.