WEBVTT - How the World's Companies Wound Up in a Deepening Supply Chain Nightmare

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Tracy Hallaway and I'm Joe. Wasn't Joe remember that

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<v Speaker 1>ever Given? Yeah? That was. That was a great story.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not over yet, is it? So? Possibly my favorite

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<v Speaker 1>sort of finance eco story of all time. It's still going.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh So, there's still this legal thing over what's going

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<v Speaker 1>to happen to all the actual things that were on

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<v Speaker 1>the ever Given after it was stuck in the canal,

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<v Speaker 1>and people are still trying to clear the backlog of

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<v Speaker 1>container ships the sort of logjam that came from the blockage,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, months at this point after the thing was

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<v Speaker 1>actually stuck, right, So it wasn't actually stuck like sort

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<v Speaker 1>of blocking the canal for that long. I think it

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<v Speaker 1>was like about a week maybe or something wrong that,

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<v Speaker 1>but it caused all kinds of issues obviously, and they

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<v Speaker 1>had to have this huge rescue effort and that cost

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<v Speaker 1>all kinds of money. And then the last I heard

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<v Speaker 1>about it, and I probably read an article like a

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<v Speaker 1>week or two ago, there was some sort of like

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<v Speaker 1>some issue with like the boat, the vessel not being

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<v Speaker 1>allowed to actually continue on its journey until the owners

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<v Speaker 1>paid up for the the rescue operation, and then I

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<v Speaker 1>started lost track of it after that. Yeah, that's exactly right.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course the ever Given it's sort of, I

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<v Speaker 1>guess symbolic of all these logistics snarls that we've had

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<v Speaker 1>recently during the coronavirus crisis. And you know, we talked

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<v Speaker 1>about it before in various episodes. We've talked about basically

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<v Speaker 1>the surging traffic and shipping container rates going up, but

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<v Speaker 1>we've also talked about this idea that there's a shortage

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<v Speaker 1>of lots of different things, including lumber, including semi conductors,

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<v Speaker 1>and the logistics snarls really play into that because if

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<v Speaker 1>you already have a short things like semiconductors, plus you

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<v Speaker 1>can't actually move them to where they need to be,

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<v Speaker 1>then everything just gets compounded, right. I was just about

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<v Speaker 1>to use that word compounding, because that's really what it

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<v Speaker 1>feels like that Like the ever Given story was like

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<v Speaker 1>kind of wild. The ship like got turned and went

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<v Speaker 1>into the bank, and it was kind of weird, but

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<v Speaker 1>it really was sort of like the perfect emblem of

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<v Speaker 1>this moment because they are just so many issues recently.

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<v Speaker 1>Did that episode about with the lumber trader, and so

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<v Speaker 1>that after that episode, I was like reading about or

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<v Speaker 1>I was like following like one of the big sawmill companies.

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<v Speaker 1>I read their earnings report and they missed a man

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<v Speaker 1>about this. Oh you did, Joe. You've read this from

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<v Speaker 1>my post, Yes, you published it. That was the thing

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<v Speaker 1>about the sawmill company. Yeah, yeah, they couldn't get enough

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<v Speaker 1>truckey right, should have been minting money, but it wasn't. Sorry,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, because they couldn't actually move the wood. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>so we're all on the same page. So anyway, all

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<v Speaker 1>these things are piling up on top of each other,

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<v Speaker 1>chips and trucks and boats, and it doesn't feel like

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<v Speaker 1>we're getting any closer to some sort of equilibrium. Of course,

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<v Speaker 1>you beat me to that story, Tracy. I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>why I would have ever suggested on the way, but look,

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<v Speaker 1>what's really interesting. Well, I'll tell you one thing. I've

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<v Speaker 1>been trying to ship something on a container from Hong

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<v Speaker 1>Kong to l A for months now, and I cannot

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<v Speaker 1>get room on a ship for lover money. So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I've been trying to do this for the purposes of

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<v Speaker 1>journalism slash science, so I personally know how bad it is,

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<v Speaker 1>and the guests that we're about to speak to on

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<v Speaker 1>all thoughts. Is someone that I got in touch with

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<v Speaker 1>to try to give me some logistics advice and figure

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<v Speaker 1>out what was going on with my own container shipping woes.

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<v Speaker 1>And he's really the perfect person to talk to about

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<v Speaker 1>this because not only is he the head of a

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<v Speaker 1>tech platform for global logistics, so this is what he

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<v Speaker 1>does day in and day out, but he also has

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<v Speaker 1>about forty containers still stuck on the ever given so

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<v Speaker 1>he can talk about that situation as well. Well. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>really looking forward to this. I'm hoping to learn something

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<v Speaker 1>and hopefully you get some some advice on making your

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<v Speaker 1>making your ship all right. Our guest for today is

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<v Speaker 1>Ryan Peterson. He's the CEO of Flex Support. Ryan, thanks

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<v Speaker 1>so much for coming on. Great to have great to

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<v Speaker 1>be here. Thank you for having me so Ryan. Hopefully,

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<v Speaker 1>Joe and I kind of described the extremity of the

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<v Speaker 1>logistics log jam correctly in the intro. How bad is

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<v Speaker 1>it right now? Um? And it depends where you sit.

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<v Speaker 1>If you if you own a ship or an airplane

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<v Speaker 1>or a fleet of those, you're making a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>money right now. Prices have gone through the roof. The

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<v Speaker 1>reason is because people are shipping more things than ever

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<v Speaker 1>before in human history, and all the ships and planes

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<v Speaker 1>are full. But all the companies in every industry, I

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<v Speaker 1>think lumber, the lumber one you describe super interesting. But

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<v Speaker 1>everybody's having trouble getting anything delivered. And it's not just

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<v Speaker 1>you with your little container. It's some of the best

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<v Speaker 1>companies in the world are struggling right now. So my

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<v Speaker 1>little container is when you feet long for the record,

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<v Speaker 1>but it only has one thing in it. How does

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<v Speaker 1>a flex port sit within the logistics ecosystem? And who

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<v Speaker 1>are your clients and all this? Yeah, so we work

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<v Speaker 1>with about six thousand great companies around the world that

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<v Speaker 1>regularly ship. We actually have more than ten thousand customers,

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<v Speaker 1>but six thousands of them are shipping constantly like every day,

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<v Speaker 1>like medium sized, big, big companies, household names, some of

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<v Speaker 1>the most important brands in the world as well as

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<v Speaker 1>like we have almost all of the directed consumer e

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<v Speaker 1>commerce businesses that are these up and coming companies, So

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<v Speaker 1>we have all of those customers. They contract Flexport to

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<v Speaker 1>manage the full end to end from shipping everything once

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<v Speaker 1>it leaves a factory loading dock all the way into

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<v Speaker 1>their downstream network for distribution into the u S and

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<v Speaker 1>we handle air ocean freight, UH customs and the delivery

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<v Speaker 1>both pickup and delivery for trucking. So talk to us

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit about the containers on the ever given

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<v Speaker 1>then what was your role there in the logistics and

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<v Speaker 1>what's their current status. Yeah, we do have we have

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<v Speaker 1>forty three containers sitting on that ship still, that's our

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<v Speaker 1>European customer base. Obviously they contracted us to ship containers

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<v Speaker 1>out of mostly out of those ones left from China.

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<v Speaker 1>You've seen you've seen the pictures of the ship. They're stuck.

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<v Speaker 1>The name of the game here is second order effects,

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<v Speaker 1>Like you just couldn't predict what was going to happen.

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<v Speaker 1>So you've got the forty three that are stuck on

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<v Speaker 1>that ship, but actually a hundred and twenty other ships

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<v Speaker 1>containing twelve hundred flex sport containers were stuck behind that

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<v Speaker 1>ship or ahead of it which way they're going, and

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<v Speaker 1>also couldn't be delivered. How to get delayed. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>the biggest cost that's going to come about through litigation

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<v Speaker 1>and everything else that flows through here is all of

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<v Speaker 1>these people feel like, hey, you owe me money, you

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<v Speaker 1>blocked my delivery, and all of that that's gonna be

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of lawsuits. It's not just the cost of

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<v Speaker 1>the rescue operation, the dredging of the canal and everything else.

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<v Speaker 1>It's like all these people who had their cargo delayed,

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<v Speaker 1>and what's the how do you quantify that? It's like,

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<v Speaker 1>is it the lost profits that they would have aid

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<v Speaker 1>from delivering those goods. It starts to be a really

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<v Speaker 1>hard exercise that we'll get settled in the court of

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<v Speaker 1>law or or many um and it's gonna take a

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<v Speaker 1>long time to shake out. I don't know if there's

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<v Speaker 1>like client confidentiality, but can you tell us some of

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<v Speaker 1>the items that are stuck on the what types of

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<v Speaker 1>items are stuck on that boat? Yeah, there is a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of confidentiality. But I know that one of our

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<v Speaker 1>customers has is a relatively famous company that make and

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<v Speaker 1>I can't show that, but make keyboards, keyboards and mice, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>the entire like many container loads of that. Um. By

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<v Speaker 1>the way of the forty three containers, we have all

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<v Speaker 1>of the customers except for three, opted into cargo insurance,

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<v Speaker 1>which will cover the damages in the eventual lawsuits that

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<v Speaker 1>come out of this. Those three we're gonna have to

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<v Speaker 1>work through and make sure it doesn't bankrupt them. But

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<v Speaker 1>one of the little known facts about global shipping is,

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<v Speaker 1>under ancient maritime law, the company shipping the cargo, not

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<v Speaker 1>the owner of the ship, but the company that whose

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<v Speaker 1>cargo owns the cargo the products on there is liable

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<v Speaker 1>when something like this happens. Yeah, and and the real

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<v Speaker 1>that's a law called general average. It's a fascinating Wikipedia article.

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<v Speaker 1>And the reason that that's true under ancient sort of

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<v Speaker 1>not I mean ancient, Yeah, it goes back I think

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<v Speaker 1>hundreds of years. And the reason that that was true

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<v Speaker 1>is that in a in a storm or an accident

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<v Speaker 1>at sea, you don't want people to stop and argue

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<v Speaker 1>about whose cargo they're gonna throw overboard, and do you

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<v Speaker 1>want the mariners. You don't want these arguments. You don't

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<v Speaker 1>want the mariners like worrying about that. Just throw the

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<v Speaker 1>cargo over and save the ship, is the principle, and

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<v Speaker 1>you'll sort it out later. And the way you sort

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<v Speaker 1>it out later is everybody agrees that we will share

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<v Speaker 1>equally and whoever's cargo got thrown over the rest of

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<v Speaker 1>the people will make them whole. And that's a principle

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<v Speaker 1>called general average. And the ocean carrier under the law

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<v Speaker 1>has the right to invoke general average and declare it

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<v Speaker 1>and say okay. And so that's what Evergreen has done.

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<v Speaker 1>They have declared general average, which means all of the

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<v Speaker 1>customers who have cargo on that ship are going to

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<v Speaker 1>be liable for the damages that come through um and

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<v Speaker 1>it could be billions of dollars in aggregate and it

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<v Speaker 1>and it gets divided pro rata based on the commercial

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<v Speaker 1>invoice value of your goods. That when you do get

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<v Speaker 1>this your goods put on that ship, you should pay

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<v Speaker 1>for cargo insurance because if that ship gets something terrible

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<v Speaker 1>happens all of a sudden, You're little Bloomberg research project,

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<v Speaker 1>could you know, bring bring you all. You've got to

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<v Speaker 1>make sure that you don't get a bankrupted Oh man,

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<v Speaker 1>that's actually a really good point. And now I'm worried

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<v Speaker 1>about like bringing all of Bloomberg down with this one shipment.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not that expensive. This is actually something that I

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to ask you about. So I'm hoping you can

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<v Speaker 1>expound on that point. Who is actually liable for the

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<v Speaker 1>snarls that we're getting in global shipping traffic, Like when

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<v Speaker 1>stuff goes wrong, Who bears responsibility not just in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of I guess insurance for lost or delayed cargo, but

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<v Speaker 1>also who bears responsibility for solving the problem, Like who

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<v Speaker 1>do your clients go to and say, I can't get

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<v Speaker 1>my stuff shipped on time. Someone needs to fix this. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>that's all on us as as a logistics industry. That

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<v Speaker 1>it's really tough. The analogy I've been using with my

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<v Speaker 1>teams is that we're doing wedding planning outdoors and all

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<v Speaker 1>of a sudden we've been moved to Seattle, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's like, well, every you better be warning your

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<v Speaker 1>customers about what's going on. Tell them that, hey, we're

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<v Speaker 1>not able. The thirty percent of ships are being are

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<v Speaker 1>not making their schedule right now, seven percent of containers

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<v Speaker 1>are getting rolled, which is like what it calls when

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<v Speaker 1>you get bumped in an airline, when you get when

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<v Speaker 1>you get bumped to the next plane that's getting rolled.

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<v Speaker 1>In ocean containership industry standard industry average before the pandemic

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<v Speaker 1>was eight percent. So it's just like a huge spike

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<v Speaker 1>in in failure, service delivery failure, and it's a ton

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<v Speaker 1>of second order effects because right when when that and

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<v Speaker 1>then this was the ever Given is a really good example.

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<v Speaker 1>Like that ship. Okay, it's six days late, the ships

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<v Speaker 1>behind it were six days late. I mean they ever

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<v Speaker 1>given is gonna be months late, but the ones behind

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<v Speaker 1>it were six days late. We're arriving, but now they

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<v Speaker 1>were supposed to go to the next port and the

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<v Speaker 1>next sport, they're gonna be delayed there and there, and

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<v Speaker 1>all those other bookings that were supposed to get put

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<v Speaker 1>on get rolled and have to find a new you

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<v Speaker 1>know what, what ship do they go on? It's a

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<v Speaker 1>mad scramble. That was just like adding you know, insult

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<v Speaker 1>to injury. After a year of this, well at least

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<v Speaker 1>six months of really excess capacity and not enough ships

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<v Speaker 1>to move all the cargo that's trying to move. See,

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<v Speaker 1>I explained that, like ever given a side, what have

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<v Speaker 1>been the main factors that explain why the system is

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<v Speaker 1>basically buckling? Like where where are the big pain points

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<v Speaker 1>coming from? The first thing and the most the easiest

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<v Speaker 1>thing to point to is just like way more demand,

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<v Speaker 1>way more volume is being shipped, and my own working

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<v Speaker 1>I thought this is for this, and I didn't predict

0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:03.960
<v Speaker 1>this in advance, so I'm not claiming to be smart

0:12:04.000 --> 0:12:05.560
<v Speaker 1>and I just sort of looked at the data x

0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:07.600
<v Speaker 1>post and rationalize it, which we're all capable of doing.

0:12:07.600 --> 0:12:09.400
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if it's true or not, but ex

0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:11.920
<v Speaker 1>post we can look backwards and say, well, all of

0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:14.240
<v Speaker 1>these consumers who got locked in their homes and couldn't

0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:16.720
<v Speaker 1>go out, You've got to get your dopamine somewhere. And

0:12:16.760 --> 0:12:19.160
<v Speaker 1>so you just buy stuff on the internet, and and

0:12:19.200 --> 0:12:22.839
<v Speaker 1>people have bought way more things than they were buying before.

0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:25.120
<v Speaker 1>And you've had this like big shift, and the data

0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:26.839
<v Speaker 1>does bear this out. You've had a big shift from

0:12:26.840 --> 0:12:30.080
<v Speaker 1>services which are way down double digit percent down, onto

0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:34.480
<v Speaker 1>durable goods, onto home goods, upgrading your furniture building, um.

0:12:34.559 --> 0:12:36.520
<v Speaker 1>And so that's that's the first thing. It's just like

0:12:36.640 --> 0:12:39.719
<v Speaker 1>way more cargo getting shipped, and you have the same

0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:43.760
<v Speaker 1>number of ships, in some cases less because of actually

0:12:43.800 --> 0:12:46.960
<v Speaker 1>the ocean carriers cut back. We all predicted as an

0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:49.400
<v Speaker 1>industry and as a world, as like economists around the world,

0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:52.840
<v Speaker 1>everyone predicted that goods purchases would fall off a cliff,

0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:56.000
<v Speaker 1>and the opposite happened, which I think is a lesson

0:12:56.200 --> 0:12:57.760
<v Speaker 1>that we should all take from this, is like, maybe

0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:00.200
<v Speaker 1>don't be so certain in predictions of the future. But

0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:02.920
<v Speaker 1>we all predicted that, and the ocean carriers actually pulled

0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:08.120
<v Speaker 1>back capacity. Um. A lot of companies pulled back orders

0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:11.360
<v Speaker 1>and their factories made other plans and then all of

0:13:11.400 --> 0:13:13.439
<v Speaker 1>a sudden goot new orders. So you've got a log

0:13:13.520 --> 0:13:16.640
<v Speaker 1>jam at the factory where right now it's taking I

0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:20.719
<v Speaker 1>talked to one bicycle producer, pretty big brand, last two

0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:23.800
<v Speaker 1>weeks ago, and it's taking them three hundred days when

0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:26.720
<v Speaker 1>they place a purchase order with their factory, three days

0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:29.280
<v Speaker 1>before it's ready to get picked up, which normally this

0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:31.760
<v Speaker 1>is like a thirty day process. Um, So you've got

0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:35.000
<v Speaker 1>delays at the factory. Ships there wasn't enough capacity. Well,

0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:37.600
<v Speaker 1>we also ran out of containers, and this is a

0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:41.880
<v Speaker 1>really interesting second order effect. Imports have surged. US exports

0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:46.800
<v Speaker 1>are down of containers. If you don't have containers being exported,

0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:50.400
<v Speaker 1>you don't have empty containers to put those imports in

0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:52.760
<v Speaker 1>coming back, and it needs to run in a loop.

0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:58.560
<v Speaker 1>So normal days pre pandemic of US of containers leaving

0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:01.960
<v Speaker 1>the United States are empty. Uh, it's it's running around

0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:05.720
<v Speaker 1>right now. But for a while they didn't, the ocean

0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:08.440
<v Speaker 1>carriers weren't on top of this and just shipping back

0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:11.599
<v Speaker 1>extra empties to make sure that they have enough capacity.

0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:13.719
<v Speaker 1>So there was a moment a couple of months ago

0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:16.319
<v Speaker 1>where we were as a as an industry, as a society,

0:14:16.679 --> 0:14:20.960
<v Speaker 1>five hundred thousand shipping containers short in China. Sorry sorry,

0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:25.000
<v Speaker 1>could you just explain that. Why is the shipment back

0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:29.800
<v Speaker 1>of empty containers a problem? Because normally you have you

0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:32.840
<v Speaker 1>have full stuff going. Yeah, but US exports fell off

0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:35.640
<v Speaker 1>a cliff, right, and nobody thought, hey, I still need

0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:37.720
<v Speaker 1>the container even if I'm not exporting the goods. So

0:14:38.520 --> 0:14:42.640
<v Speaker 1>the ships were going back to China but leaving empty containers,

0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:44.520
<v Speaker 1>and the empties were staying here because they would get

0:14:44.560 --> 0:14:47.520
<v Speaker 1>imported and usually they get exported automatically. And that's like

0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:50.480
<v Speaker 1>just a really quick reaction. You know, the industry is

0:14:50.520 --> 0:14:53.400
<v Speaker 1>not made to like change this fast, this physical goods

0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:56.080
<v Speaker 1>type of stuff happening in the real world that it's

0:14:56.120 --> 0:14:59.280
<v Speaker 1>not software. Can you go into that in detail, because

0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:01.920
<v Speaker 1>this is something that we spoke about with a previous

0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:06.480
<v Speaker 1>gust on shipping. But how flexible is the industry? I

0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:09.880
<v Speaker 1>get the sense that it isn't very And you're dealing

0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:13.560
<v Speaker 1>with you know, massive ships and huge ports that take

0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:17.200
<v Speaker 1>a lot of coordination and big lead times. But why

0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:21.000
<v Speaker 1>can't it respond to you know, at this point, it's

0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:22.680
<v Speaker 1>a change in the world that's sort of been going

0:15:22.720 --> 0:15:25.320
<v Speaker 1>on for more than a year, So why does it

0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:28.080
<v Speaker 1>take so long to respond to it? Yeah, I mean

0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:30.840
<v Speaker 1>it's it's my personal obsession is to try to make

0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:33.720
<v Speaker 1>this industry more agile and and bring technology to bear.

0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:35.200
<v Speaker 1>And a lot of it is a lack of technology.

0:15:35.240 --> 0:15:38.280
<v Speaker 1>A lot of these companies are running old systems. I've

0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:40.320
<v Speaker 1>heard the word as four hundred more times than I

0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:41.720
<v Speaker 1>ever want to hear again in my life. That's like

0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:45.840
<v Speaker 1>an an operating system built by IBM as a predecessor

0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:48.960
<v Speaker 1>to OS two. Like we're talking about early early eighties

0:15:49.000 --> 0:15:51.720
<v Speaker 1>technology that's still running and and it's hard to switch

0:15:51.720 --> 0:15:54.680
<v Speaker 1>out a system that runs such vital systems and your

0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:57.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, running your company. And so some of it

0:15:57.160 --> 0:15:59.760
<v Speaker 1>is technology and lack of tech to be agile. Some

0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:02.840
<v Speaker 1>process I don't know, like I send some bureaucracy. So

0:16:02.880 --> 0:16:05.440
<v Speaker 1>for example, with these empty containers, we saw this problem

0:16:05.480 --> 0:16:08.720
<v Speaker 1>coming like six months ago. We're like, hey, the exports

0:16:08.720 --> 0:16:12.440
<v Speaker 1>aren't happening, there's gonna be a lack of empty containers

0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:15.520
<v Speaker 1>in China. We went to a couple of ocean carrier

0:16:15.560 --> 0:16:18.080
<v Speaker 1>partners of ours and said, we want to ship empty containers,

0:16:18.120 --> 0:16:20.880
<v Speaker 1>will pay you to ship them. We want to make

0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:24.040
<v Speaker 1>sure we have empties available, and they told us sure,

0:16:24.480 --> 0:16:26.280
<v Speaker 1>but once it arrives there, we're taking it back in.

0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:28.360
<v Speaker 1>It's our container and we're like, okay, well I'm not

0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:30.840
<v Speaker 1>gonna pay you to ship an empty like so we

0:16:30.880 --> 0:16:33.480
<v Speaker 1>didn't do it, and then fast forward a couple of

0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:35.160
<v Speaker 1>months and they didn't have the empties. Were like, ah,

0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:37.920
<v Speaker 1>we were offering to pay you to do this, and

0:16:37.960 --> 0:16:39.840
<v Speaker 1>you'd be making more money right now. So some of

0:16:39.880 --> 0:16:42.479
<v Speaker 1>it is just like, hey, how do you get older

0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:45.800
<v Speaker 1>companies to be less bureaucratic and be agile and respond

0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:49.080
<v Speaker 1>to change, which is not something they've really had to learn.

0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:50.680
<v Speaker 1>I think we've seen this with a lot of institutions.

0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:53.120
<v Speaker 1>I don't need to just pick on any particular industry.

0:16:53.120 --> 0:16:56.200
<v Speaker 1>We've seen this with healthcare distribution, We've seen it across

0:16:56.240 --> 0:16:57.920
<v Speaker 1>the board of the Pandemics really exposed a lot of

0:16:57.920 --> 0:17:00.400
<v Speaker 1>our institutions, and I think it's a wake up callegs.

0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:02.480
<v Speaker 1>You're not stupid people. They're like, oh wow, okay, we

0:17:02.520 --> 0:17:05.159
<v Speaker 1>really have to invest in upgrade our technology systems. So

0:17:05.200 --> 0:17:08.680
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing um, good partnership there, but in the midst

0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:11.040
<v Speaker 1>of a pandemic, it's hard and mistakes are made, for

0:17:11.080 --> 0:17:29.840
<v Speaker 1>sure from the companies that you work with. Obviously I

0:17:29.920 --> 0:17:33.480
<v Speaker 1>assume in normal times has already complicated stuff, but you know,

0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:35.800
<v Speaker 1>like what's sort of going on inside at the corporate

0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:39.160
<v Speaker 1>level as they sort of have to like pivot too,

0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:41.919
<v Speaker 1>this kind of thing that I don't know, maybe I

0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:44.040
<v Speaker 1>don't know if it normally runs an autopilot, but it's

0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:48.760
<v Speaker 1>sort of smooth to this becoming a major strategic focus

0:17:48.800 --> 0:17:51.600
<v Speaker 1>for their ability to conduct business. We're talking about brands

0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:53.760
<v Speaker 1>like companies that need to get their products in stock,

0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:57.080
<v Speaker 1>and yeah, it is logistics team has been I sometimes

0:17:57.080 --> 0:18:00.119
<v Speaker 1>call it like the offensive lineman of business, Like you

0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:03.119
<v Speaker 1>don't really get noticed until you commit a penalty. Every

0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:04.879
<v Speaker 1>everybody's piste off with you, and the rest of the

0:18:04.920 --> 0:18:07.200
<v Speaker 1>time you just say, yeah, he blocked somebody. That's his job.

0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:10.719
<v Speaker 1>And I think we're finally seeing the opportunity for for

0:18:10.760 --> 0:18:13.679
<v Speaker 1>these people, these teams to become much more strategic and

0:18:13.680 --> 0:18:15.800
<v Speaker 1>get a seat at the table and talk with the CFO,

0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:18.520
<v Speaker 1>talk with the head of marketing and sales, and the

0:18:18.560 --> 0:18:21.520
<v Speaker 1>e commerce team about hey, where's the stuff? I mean,

0:18:21.520 --> 0:18:23.520
<v Speaker 1>the dirty little secret is that the best brands in

0:18:23.560 --> 0:18:25.720
<v Speaker 1>the world have no idea where their products are. And

0:18:25.760 --> 0:18:29.840
<v Speaker 1>that's in normal times and now really they have no

0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:31.520
<v Speaker 1>idea where it is or when it's going to get there.

0:18:31.520 --> 0:18:35.000
<v Speaker 1>And it's all the previous models have stopped working. Um.

0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:37.000
<v Speaker 1>And they need they need technology, they need answers. They

0:18:37.040 --> 0:18:39.480
<v Speaker 1>can show them, Hey, show me on a satellite where

0:18:39.480 --> 0:18:41.800
<v Speaker 1>this ship is, and show me used machine learning to

0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.159
<v Speaker 1>predict when is it actually going to clear customs and

0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:48.280
<v Speaker 1>get delivered to me? So I can communicate that downstream

0:18:48.400 --> 0:18:51.800
<v Speaker 1>to the end consumer, all the way to the end consumer,

0:18:52.040 --> 0:18:55.120
<v Speaker 1>who cares when's there? When's their couch going to arrive? Um?

0:18:55.160 --> 0:18:56.840
<v Speaker 1>And that's an age old problem. No one can tell

0:18:56.840 --> 0:18:58.480
<v Speaker 1>you when your couch is gonna arrive. But it's been

0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:01.000
<v Speaker 1>compounded in a lot a couple of months, and we're

0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:03.480
<v Speaker 1>trying to at least be able to give people visibility

0:19:03.480 --> 0:19:05.879
<v Speaker 1>even if you can't run it faster. And I can't

0:19:06.160 --> 0:19:08.119
<v Speaker 1>make the ships not be stuck at the port waiting,

0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:11.080
<v Speaker 1>but I can tell you what the estimated weight time is,

0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:13.040
<v Speaker 1>and I can tell you what current throughput levels at

0:19:13.040 --> 0:19:15.640
<v Speaker 1>that port terminal are etcetera. Uh, and that's what that's

0:19:15.640 --> 0:19:17.600
<v Speaker 1>what the Flex Moore technology platform is built for. So

0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:19.520
<v Speaker 1>we've we've found this whole thing. You know. The silver

0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:21.000
<v Speaker 1>lining in US is like we're all of a sudden.

0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:24.280
<v Speaker 1>Normally we just ship cardboard boxes through our platform and

0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:25.800
<v Speaker 1>no one thinks it's that interesting. All of a sudden,

0:19:25.840 --> 0:19:27.280
<v Speaker 1>here I am talking to you all and trying to

0:19:27.440 --> 0:19:29.720
<v Speaker 1>talking to board levels and really getting in there and

0:19:29.720 --> 0:19:33.080
<v Speaker 1>trying to solve real problems for people. So this actually

0:19:33.160 --> 0:19:34.840
<v Speaker 1>leads to a question that I wanted to ask you

0:19:34.880 --> 0:19:37.119
<v Speaker 1>as well. Can you talk to us a little bit

0:19:37.160 --> 0:19:41.120
<v Speaker 1>about how the economics or the process of actually loading

0:19:41.240 --> 0:19:45.199
<v Speaker 1>container ships work. So you just mentioned that, you know,

0:19:45.240 --> 0:19:48.720
<v Speaker 1>you have technology and machine learning that help you estimate

0:19:48.760 --> 0:19:53.120
<v Speaker 1>that process. It seems to be really complicated. And again

0:19:53.960 --> 0:19:56.800
<v Speaker 1>I'm speaking a little bit from personal experience here, but

0:19:57.000 --> 0:19:59.600
<v Speaker 1>I keep getting rolled from ship to ship to ship,

0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:02.720
<v Speaker 1>which means there's someone else who is taking my space

0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:05.879
<v Speaker 1>on the ship that I was supposed to get and

0:20:06.080 --> 0:20:10.280
<v Speaker 1>either they're paying higher rates or I don't know, maybe

0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:14.040
<v Speaker 1>they're a bigger client for the company. But explain exactly

0:20:14.040 --> 0:20:19.120
<v Speaker 1>how that works. Who gets preference on these extremely crowded ships. Yeah,

0:20:19.280 --> 0:20:21.439
<v Speaker 1>and I'll tell the way it's worked traditionally in the industry,

0:20:21.440 --> 0:20:23.119
<v Speaker 1>and then I'll tell you what where I think innovations,

0:20:23.320 --> 0:20:26.119
<v Speaker 1>but there are opportunities are for innovation on top of that.

0:20:26.200 --> 0:20:28.200
<v Speaker 1>It's like traditionally it works by who has the best

0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:32.720
<v Speaker 1>relationship with this person probably named large sitting in Copenhagen

0:20:32.800 --> 0:20:35.600
<v Speaker 1>or something, who's making these decisions, and it is like

0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:38.520
<v Speaker 1>pretty human driven. They're going to look at factors like

0:20:38.560 --> 0:20:40.359
<v Speaker 1>how long have you been a customer, do you ship

0:20:40.359 --> 0:20:42.359
<v Speaker 1>a lot with them? How much money are you paying them?

0:20:42.400 --> 0:20:46.040
<v Speaker 1>Obviously and things like that, But they're not really they

0:20:46.119 --> 0:20:48.720
<v Speaker 1>don't have a lot of systems to try to build

0:20:48.760 --> 0:20:51.439
<v Speaker 1>this in terms of actual algorithms. It's people kind of

0:20:51.480 --> 0:20:55.920
<v Speaker 1>horse trading and communicating by email and prioritizing things. So

0:20:55.960 --> 0:20:58.240
<v Speaker 1>a lot of favor trading and taking care of people.

0:20:58.640 --> 0:21:00.920
<v Speaker 1>In fact, I have an imp of mine who used

0:21:00.920 --> 0:21:03.520
<v Speaker 1>to work at another company in this industry, and he

0:21:03.600 --> 0:21:06.560
<v Speaker 1>said that he spent seven years trying to sell this

0:21:06.720 --> 0:21:11.199
<v Speaker 1>like household name is retailer and they finally agreed to

0:21:11.240 --> 0:21:15.679
<v Speaker 1>give him twenty containers and the because the company and

0:21:15.680 --> 0:21:18.400
<v Speaker 1>they paid extra to make sure that they got loaded,

0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:21.560
<v Speaker 1>and then his company just rolled all twenty containers and

0:21:21.600 --> 0:21:23.600
<v Speaker 1>after seven years of work trying to close this account,

0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:24.879
<v Speaker 1>he just lost it on the first day. And it

0:21:25.000 --> 0:21:27.280
<v Speaker 1>was just like disaster. It was just a lack of systems.

0:21:27.280 --> 0:21:30.120
<v Speaker 1>Everybody wanted to support him, but there was no place

0:21:30.160 --> 0:21:33.159
<v Speaker 1>to like star that those containers and be like, we

0:21:33.200 --> 0:21:35.680
<v Speaker 1>need to prioritize these. Look, at some point, if the

0:21:35.680 --> 0:21:37.480
<v Speaker 1>ship is well, you do have to decide who gets

0:21:37.480 --> 0:21:39.760
<v Speaker 1>on and who doesn't. And what we're building towards is

0:21:39.760 --> 0:21:42.400
<v Speaker 1>the world where you prioritize people based on their own

0:21:42.440 --> 0:21:47.480
<v Speaker 1>past reliability of because it goes two ways in that

0:21:48.640 --> 0:21:52.280
<v Speaker 1>of all ocean containers that are booked with carriers get canceled,

0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:55.920
<v Speaker 1>and that was pre pandemic numbers. And so the reason

0:21:55.960 --> 0:21:58.600
<v Speaker 1>that you have an eight percent roll rate in a

0:21:58.640 --> 0:22:02.359
<v Speaker 1>world where ships were only at capacity or so before

0:22:02.400 --> 0:22:05.520
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic. So how are you at percent, Well, they

0:22:05.520 --> 0:22:08.760
<v Speaker 1>have to overbook. Uh, if you have a seventy percent

0:22:08.880 --> 0:22:12.640
<v Speaker 1>book to show ratio or at PC cancelation ratio, you're

0:22:12.640 --> 0:22:15.119
<v Speaker 1>gonna you can't. You can't make money selling a seventy

0:22:15.119 --> 0:22:18.919
<v Speaker 1>percent full ship. So you overbooked your container ship, and

0:22:18.960 --> 0:22:20.959
<v Speaker 1>then people cancel on you and you sort it out,

0:22:21.040 --> 0:22:23.560
<v Speaker 1>and on the average people are getting rolled. So it's

0:22:23.640 --> 0:22:26.359
<v Speaker 1>kind of like a commercial flight that way, a pass

0:22:26.600 --> 0:22:29.160
<v Speaker 1>where they might over they just assume some people aren't

0:22:29.160 --> 0:22:31.320
<v Speaker 1>going to show up, and then if everyone does show up,

0:22:31.320 --> 0:22:32.960
<v Speaker 1>then they have to bump. It's exactly like that. But

0:22:33.040 --> 0:22:36.400
<v Speaker 1>the airline industry on the passenger side has like been

0:22:36.520 --> 0:22:39.600
<v Speaker 1>really early adopters of technology and computer you know, and

0:22:39.760 --> 0:22:42.040
<v Speaker 1>data science, and they've done pretty I mean, I don't

0:22:42.040 --> 0:22:44.480
<v Speaker 1>get bumped very like almost ever. Anyone to hear those

0:22:44.480 --> 0:22:47.480
<v Speaker 1>announcements on the loudspeakers anymore. Wait, so is a book

0:22:47.560 --> 0:22:49.679
<v Speaker 1>to show? Is that like a term that you got

0:22:49.920 --> 0:22:52.479
<v Speaker 1>work to show? Is it's the opposite of cancelation. So

0:22:52.560 --> 0:22:55.040
<v Speaker 1>we learned in terms of book to show what was

0:22:55.080 --> 0:22:58.760
<v Speaker 1>the other one? General? General average your roll rate, I've

0:22:58.760 --> 0:23:00.600
<v Speaker 1>already learned. If we stopped it here, I would have

0:23:00.640 --> 0:23:02.800
<v Speaker 1>already learned plenty of I haven't even gotten into all

0:23:02.800 --> 0:23:05.520
<v Speaker 1>the Viking English that still predominates in global trade. There's

0:23:05.560 --> 0:23:08.600
<v Speaker 1>a lot of there's us. The word for chucking is

0:23:08.600 --> 0:23:11.760
<v Speaker 1>called drege, which is I guess too is as an

0:23:11.800 --> 0:23:15.040
<v Speaker 1>old word for dragging. Something like when you add horses dragging,

0:23:15.560 --> 0:23:18.560
<v Speaker 1>you have a bill of lading. Yeah, well that lading

0:23:18.680 --> 0:23:22.080
<v Speaker 1>is an old English word for loading, and the bill

0:23:22.119 --> 0:23:24.159
<v Speaker 1>of lading. This is to show you how ancient this

0:23:24.240 --> 0:23:26.240
<v Speaker 1>industry is. Like the bill of lading is a is

0:23:26.280 --> 0:23:29.119
<v Speaker 1>a piece of paper that serves as title to the

0:23:29.119 --> 0:23:35.120
<v Speaker 1>merchandise by default in global trade in this today, by default,

0:23:35.200 --> 0:23:37.119
<v Speaker 1>that piece of paper needs to be flown across the

0:23:37.119 --> 0:23:40.120
<v Speaker 1>ocean to be given to the new owner. So your

0:23:40.160 --> 0:23:43.639
<v Speaker 1>containers going along slowly like this, your piece of paper

0:23:43.680 --> 0:23:45.639
<v Speaker 1>gets flown around and then you need to present that

0:23:45.680 --> 0:23:47.359
<v Speaker 1>at the port to be able to pick up your container.

0:23:47.440 --> 0:23:50.359
<v Speaker 1>It's not it's crazy. I just realized I've been pronouncing

0:23:50.400 --> 0:23:52.480
<v Speaker 1>all of these words wrong. In my head. I always

0:23:52.480 --> 0:23:55.840
<v Speaker 1>thought it was bill of latting and dryedge. So thank

0:23:55.880 --> 0:23:59.680
<v Speaker 1>you for clarifying that. Thanks for having me on. Look,

0:23:59.720 --> 0:24:02.080
<v Speaker 1>if some one has to get rolled from your ship,

0:24:02.280 --> 0:24:04.359
<v Speaker 1>you know your ship is overpooked, and you have to

0:24:04.440 --> 0:24:07.040
<v Speaker 1>choose who gets rolled. You should be able to look

0:24:07.119 --> 0:24:10.399
<v Speaker 1>at past performance and go, hey, look, give me your

0:24:10.400 --> 0:24:13.080
<v Speaker 1>forecast of how much you're gonna ship and what you ship,

0:24:13.119 --> 0:24:15.639
<v Speaker 1>and and then I'm gonna look at how accurate you

0:24:15.640 --> 0:24:18.240
<v Speaker 1>are in your forecast and how good you are at

0:24:18.280 --> 0:24:21.240
<v Speaker 1>maintaining that book to show ratio that you actually ship

0:24:21.320 --> 0:24:24.440
<v Speaker 1>what you booked, and then I will reward you. When

0:24:24.480 --> 0:24:26.360
<v Speaker 1>when someone needs to get rolled, it won't be you,

0:24:26.480 --> 0:24:29.760
<v Speaker 1>It will be someone else who's way in unpredictable, and

0:24:29.800 --> 0:24:32.120
<v Speaker 1>I can give that person an opportunity to pay more

0:24:32.760 --> 0:24:35.520
<v Speaker 1>to be treated like a more predictable client. And I

0:24:35.600 --> 0:24:37.840
<v Speaker 1>think you can bring some sanity to this industry, which

0:24:37.880 --> 0:24:39.600
<v Speaker 1>is like and one of my dreams is to like

0:24:39.640 --> 0:24:42.080
<v Speaker 1>send the person who makes the company that makes the

0:24:42.119 --> 0:24:43.600
<v Speaker 1>best forecast. I want to send them one of those

0:24:43.600 --> 0:24:46.679
<v Speaker 1>big golf sweepstakes checks that they have to go and

0:24:46.720 --> 0:24:49.119
<v Speaker 1>try to cash in because no one, no one that

0:24:49.240 --> 0:24:51.359
<v Speaker 1>the guy who makes the forecast in the back office

0:24:51.400 --> 0:24:53.479
<v Speaker 1>of one of these companies, Like really, no one has

0:24:53.520 --> 0:24:56.480
<v Speaker 1>ever recognized that person for doing anything like an industry

0:24:56.480 --> 0:24:58.600
<v Speaker 1>award show is what you're near. Yeah, I don't know

0:24:58.600 --> 0:25:00.280
<v Speaker 1>that anyone would care, but I think their finance apartment

0:25:00.320 --> 0:25:01.960
<v Speaker 1>would celebrate him for an after him or her for

0:25:02.000 --> 0:25:05.119
<v Speaker 1>an afternoon. That leads to another thing actually that I

0:25:05.119 --> 0:25:07.200
<v Speaker 1>wanted to ask you, And I'm sorry we have such

0:25:07.200 --> 0:25:09.800
<v Speaker 1>a long list here, but can you talk a bit

0:25:09.840 --> 0:25:12.840
<v Speaker 1>more about the situation at the ports and the actual

0:25:12.960 --> 0:25:16.960
<v Speaker 1>unloading of containers, because you know, on the one end,

0:25:17.040 --> 0:25:19.959
<v Speaker 1>it's difficult to get on a ship, and then at

0:25:20.000 --> 0:25:22.680
<v Speaker 1>the other end, it seems to be difficult to actually

0:25:22.760 --> 0:25:28.040
<v Speaker 1>get unloaded at your destination port. So what's going on there? Yeah,

0:25:28.080 --> 0:25:30.199
<v Speaker 1>and and similar problem. I mean, you have all the

0:25:30.200 --> 0:25:33.480
<v Speaker 1>ships are sailing, all of them are sailing completely full.

0:25:33.920 --> 0:25:37.120
<v Speaker 1>We still use like nineteen seventies technology to unload these ships.

0:25:37.160 --> 0:25:38.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean we all like look at those containers and

0:25:38.840 --> 0:25:40.560
<v Speaker 1>think they're kind of cool, but like that's the nineteen

0:25:40.560 --> 0:25:43.840
<v Speaker 1>seventies innovation, and we still unload them one or maximum

0:25:43.840 --> 0:25:46.240
<v Speaker 1>two at a time. So it takes you eight hours

0:25:46.280 --> 0:25:48.720
<v Speaker 1>to unload a ship when it arrives. And that's if

0:25:48.720 --> 0:25:51.119
<v Speaker 1>you have a full crew, full work crew, full a

0:25:51.200 --> 0:25:54.760
<v Speaker 1>group of longshoreman um stevendors. They're called the warehouse, the

0:25:54.800 --> 0:25:57.879
<v Speaker 1>workers on the at the port. Obviously, COVID has had

0:25:57.880 --> 0:26:01.680
<v Speaker 1>impacts on work, on staffing, and the union has told them,

0:26:01.720 --> 0:26:04.160
<v Speaker 1>I understand that they don't if they don't feel safe,

0:26:04.200 --> 0:26:05.679
<v Speaker 1>they cannot come to work. So they've had a lot

0:26:05.720 --> 0:26:08.639
<v Speaker 1>of time getting enough people. There are brave people going

0:26:08.680 --> 0:26:11.040
<v Speaker 1>to work throughout the pandemic um and they have been

0:26:11.119 --> 0:26:13.199
<v Speaker 1>hit pretty hard by COVID in these in various poor

0:26:13.320 --> 0:26:15.399
<v Speaker 1>terminals around the world, so they haven't been able to

0:26:15.400 --> 0:26:17.719
<v Speaker 1>be fully staffed, and even when they are, it just

0:26:17.760 --> 0:26:21.400
<v Speaker 1>takes so long to unload these ships that that's one backlog.

0:26:21.840 --> 0:26:24.200
<v Speaker 1>Second is the truckers, and you need to be able

0:26:24.200 --> 0:26:27.200
<v Speaker 1>to find a chassis. The chassis is like the trailer

0:26:27.280 --> 0:26:29.560
<v Speaker 1>that you put a container onto that so that it

0:26:29.600 --> 0:26:32.320
<v Speaker 1>can be dragged around by a truck. And we haven't

0:26:32.320 --> 0:26:35.119
<v Speaker 1>had enough chassis. You know, all these second order efacts

0:26:35.119 --> 0:26:37.600
<v Speaker 1>that are really hard to predict. Bullwhip effect. It's called

0:26:37.640 --> 0:26:41.080
<v Speaker 1>in supply change. One thing I noticed, so by the

0:26:41.119 --> 0:26:44.680
<v Speaker 1>way recording this may third. So the latest I s

0:26:44.800 --> 0:26:47.199
<v Speaker 1>M manufacturing reports came out and I was reading the

0:26:47.200 --> 0:26:49.800
<v Speaker 1>ones for Europe this morning, and one of the things

0:26:49.880 --> 0:26:53.600
<v Speaker 1>that it said was that manufacturers, we all know they're

0:26:53.640 --> 0:26:57.680
<v Speaker 1>facing backlogs and delays and supply issues, and that because

0:26:57.720 --> 0:27:03.359
<v Speaker 1>of the uncertainty about their ability to get supplies, that

0:27:03.480 --> 0:27:08.280
<v Speaker 1>they're increasing their orders. And so because they're compensating for

0:27:08.600 --> 0:27:12.160
<v Speaker 1>supply uncertainty by actually amping up their orders, because then

0:27:12.280 --> 0:27:15.680
<v Speaker 1>presumably that they view that as increasing the chance that

0:27:15.720 --> 0:27:18.040
<v Speaker 1>they're actually going to get uh. But then I have

0:27:18.080 --> 0:27:22.160
<v Speaker 1>to imagine that that only further exacerbates the shortages, because

0:27:22.160 --> 0:27:26.400
<v Speaker 1>if everybody is fear of shortages, and everybody increases their orders,

0:27:26.720 --> 0:27:29.960
<v Speaker 1>and then you actually sort of manifest shorter shortages. So

0:27:30.000 --> 0:27:32.840
<v Speaker 1>I'm curious about how that sort of second order effect,

0:27:32.960 --> 0:27:37.760
<v Speaker 1>where this sort of the compensation for expected delays creates

0:27:37.760 --> 0:27:40.160
<v Speaker 1>more problems. Yeah, and then what happens when you actually

0:27:40.240 --> 0:27:41.880
<v Speaker 1>get all your order and you realize, oh, I ordered

0:27:41.880 --> 0:27:43.720
<v Speaker 1>too much stuff. Then you cancel and you cut all

0:27:43.760 --> 0:27:45.600
<v Speaker 1>your orders back to zero, and it's just all this

0:27:46.119 --> 0:27:48.919
<v Speaker 1>volatility in the system. And that is actually a lot

0:27:48.960 --> 0:27:51.160
<v Speaker 1>of what happened. So because when we first started into

0:27:51.200 --> 0:27:55.280
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic, a lot of almost every business was staring

0:27:55.320 --> 0:27:56.879
<v Speaker 1>at the abyss and said, hey, we gotta cut all

0:27:56.920 --> 0:27:59.000
<v Speaker 1>of it. They didn't order anything. I mean, you probably

0:27:59.040 --> 0:28:00.600
<v Speaker 1>heard that from your I didn't have to listen yet

0:28:00.600 --> 0:28:02.920
<v Speaker 1>to your lumber podcast pack yeaheah, it's the same thing.

0:28:03.040 --> 0:28:05.280
<v Speaker 1>They sold everything to the yeah, exactly. And then that's

0:28:05.280 --> 0:28:06.520
<v Speaker 1>had to happen with a lot of industries. And then

0:28:06.520 --> 0:28:08.359
<v Speaker 1>all of a sudden and the one that was the

0:28:08.359 --> 0:28:10.040
<v Speaker 1>worst that I'm aware of was well, I don't know,

0:28:10.119 --> 0:28:11.560
<v Speaker 1>I don't know how to compare it with the lumber.

0:28:11.600 --> 0:28:14.159
<v Speaker 1>But the furniture industry had a really hard problem because

0:28:14.440 --> 0:28:17.760
<v Speaker 1>as what's happened with price of ocean freight, it's gone

0:28:17.760 --> 0:28:19.480
<v Speaker 1>through the roof, right because it's at capacity, and now

0:28:19.480 --> 0:28:20.960
<v Speaker 1>it's whoever is going to pay the most gets on

0:28:21.000 --> 0:28:25.040
<v Speaker 1>the ship, and the furniture people will have like kind

0:28:25.080 --> 0:28:28.120
<v Speaker 1>of low margins. We're sitting this out and they're going, hey,

0:28:28.119 --> 0:28:29.720
<v Speaker 1>I'm not gonna ship when the price is that high.

0:28:29.760 --> 0:28:32.280
<v Speaker 1>I'll just wait and I'll sell down my inventory in

0:28:32.320 --> 0:28:34.800
<v Speaker 1>the US. And so now all of a sudden they're going,

0:28:34.800 --> 0:28:37.200
<v Speaker 1>wait a minute, I'm like out of inventory and I'm

0:28:37.200 --> 0:28:39.120
<v Speaker 1>just gonna have to pay this price. And so they're

0:28:39.400 --> 0:28:44.080
<v Speaker 1>the furniture imports are only up year over year, but

0:28:44.400 --> 0:28:47.560
<v Speaker 1>volumes in Q one are up to x year over

0:28:47.640 --> 0:28:51.200
<v Speaker 1>year because volumes had gone to zero in previous quarters.

0:28:51.680 --> 0:28:54.200
<v Speaker 1>So you get these crazy oscillations like that, and yeah,

0:28:54.200 --> 0:28:55.720
<v Speaker 1>it can it can lead to all these second order

0:28:55.760 --> 0:28:58.200
<v Speaker 1>effects that are really hard to predict. I don't know,

0:28:58.600 --> 0:28:59.920
<v Speaker 1>it's it's hard to see how we get through this

0:29:00.000 --> 0:29:02.320
<v Speaker 1>other than just time. It takes time to play it

0:29:02.320 --> 0:29:04.360
<v Speaker 1>out and let things come back to what. I don't

0:29:04.400 --> 0:29:06.440
<v Speaker 1>know if that there's a concept of equilibrium, but it's

0:29:06.440 --> 0:29:10.720
<v Speaker 1>a something along those lines. Here's a dumb question on

0:29:10.800 --> 0:29:14.000
<v Speaker 1>that point. But do you see the logistics narls as

0:29:14.080 --> 0:29:17.840
<v Speaker 1>good or bad for the global economy? And maybe that's

0:29:17.840 --> 0:29:20.640
<v Speaker 1>a weird question, but I can kind of see people

0:29:20.800 --> 0:29:25.760
<v Speaker 1>arguing it both ways. So on the one hand, if

0:29:25.800 --> 0:29:29.400
<v Speaker 1>you know you're short now, then you're boosting orders, you

0:29:29.520 --> 0:29:31.600
<v Speaker 1>kind of assume that there's going to be demand for

0:29:31.640 --> 0:29:36.160
<v Speaker 1>the foreseeable future and eventually people start adding capacity, which

0:29:36.160 --> 0:29:39.640
<v Speaker 1>would be a good thing for the economy. But on

0:29:39.680 --> 0:29:43.400
<v Speaker 1>the other hand, it does create this volatility. As you

0:29:43.520 --> 0:29:47.280
<v Speaker 1>just described, people can't get things. There's a lot of

0:29:47.360 --> 0:29:51.240
<v Speaker 1>uncertainty built into the system. And even if prices for

0:29:51.720 --> 0:29:55.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, say furniture or lumber are soaring, you can't

0:29:55.080 --> 0:29:57.360
<v Speaker 1>actually deliver the goods and make money off of it.

0:29:57.520 --> 0:30:02.080
<v Speaker 1>So net net is this good are bad? I don't know.

0:30:02.200 --> 0:30:05.040
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if there's a judgment, like a moral

0:30:05.200 --> 0:30:08.400
<v Speaker 1>judgment or a good bad judgment there, because it's it

0:30:08.440 --> 0:30:10.400
<v Speaker 1>depends where you sit, you know, And like I do

0:30:10.480 --> 0:30:12.960
<v Speaker 1>think it's kind of good that we're shipping more stuff.

0:30:13.000 --> 0:30:15.560
<v Speaker 1>That seems like a positive economic indicator that people are

0:30:15.560 --> 0:30:18.520
<v Speaker 1>feeling comfortable and right if if if shipping it collapsed,

0:30:18.560 --> 0:30:20.920
<v Speaker 1>we'd be having a different conversation about the Great Depression

0:30:21.000 --> 0:30:23.720
<v Speaker 1>or something. So on that sense, it's good. Is it

0:30:23.880 --> 0:30:27.520
<v Speaker 1>good that we shift spending from services onto goods? Like

0:30:28.240 --> 0:30:29.720
<v Speaker 1>really hard for me to say. I don't. I don't

0:30:29.720 --> 0:30:32.560
<v Speaker 1>have a judgment on that. Like I think enjoying life

0:30:32.600 --> 0:30:35.400
<v Speaker 1>and having some nice experiences might be better than buying stuff,

0:30:35.680 --> 0:30:39.640
<v Speaker 1>right sometimes, So hopefully all those people in service jobs

0:30:39.680 --> 0:30:41.400
<v Speaker 1>get a chance to get back to work and and

0:30:41.440 --> 0:30:43.000
<v Speaker 1>that you know that it's kind of like you're just

0:30:43.040 --> 0:30:46.040
<v Speaker 1>seeing this mix shift now. You will see it if

0:30:46.080 --> 0:30:49.360
<v Speaker 1>it stays high long term. If like goods stay high,

0:30:49.600 --> 0:30:52.920
<v Speaker 1>that seems good and you will see assets. People will

0:30:52.960 --> 0:30:55.800
<v Speaker 1>invest in ships. I'm sure people are doing it right now.

0:30:55.880 --> 0:30:57.760
<v Speaker 1>Is if they had certainty that that was gonna happen,

0:30:58.160 --> 0:31:00.400
<v Speaker 1>they'd be placing orders for more ships. But it's years

0:31:00.400 --> 0:31:02.120
<v Speaker 1>for a new ship to come online. Went from that

0:31:02.160 --> 0:31:05.160
<v Speaker 1>the moment you order it from where I said, it's entertaining.

0:31:05.320 --> 0:31:08.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I like to just see what happens in

0:31:08.320 --> 0:31:12.120
<v Speaker 1>the world. And it's also really challenging. We have to

0:31:12.160 --> 0:31:15.520
<v Speaker 1>solve problems for our customers, so that part is what

0:31:15.560 --> 0:31:17.720
<v Speaker 1>we live for. Like we we're here to solve problems,

0:31:17.720 --> 0:31:19.280
<v Speaker 1>So I don't think we're not complaining about it. A

0:31:19.320 --> 0:31:22.200
<v Speaker 1>flexport we become more useful than we were in the past.

0:31:37.120 --> 0:31:39.120
<v Speaker 1>I want to go back to the point you made

0:31:39.160 --> 0:31:43.240
<v Speaker 1>about the furniture importers and the low margins that they have.

0:31:44.240 --> 0:31:46.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean, this was again very similar themes to our

0:31:46.880 --> 0:31:50.880
<v Speaker 1>discussion about lumber. But you know, there's the sawmills were

0:31:50.920 --> 0:31:53.520
<v Speaker 1>sort of shocked by it. Didn't really believe that the

0:31:53.600 --> 0:31:55.760
<v Speaker 1>lumber prices we're gonna stay high, so like no one

0:31:55.800 --> 0:31:59.280
<v Speaker 1>really ever invested to increase the capacity. How much are

0:31:59.280 --> 0:32:02.680
<v Speaker 1>the issue? You know, we've just seen the steady worsening worsening.

0:32:03.120 --> 0:32:05.520
<v Speaker 1>Just today, I saw, you know, shipping rates on average

0:32:05.560 --> 0:32:07.920
<v Speaker 1>hit a new high. How much has there been this

0:32:07.960 --> 0:32:11.840
<v Speaker 1>effect of companies essentially thinking that, oh, it must be

0:32:11.880 --> 0:32:14.120
<v Speaker 1>the peak, so I'll wait and I'll wait, and then

0:32:14.200 --> 0:32:17.240
<v Speaker 1>of course and then having to scramble further to pay

0:32:17.320 --> 0:32:19.719
<v Speaker 1>up more because they've delayed so long in they're shipping.

0:32:20.240 --> 0:32:22.560
<v Speaker 1>I think that's I think that's pretty common and so

0:32:22.640 --> 0:32:25.600
<v Speaker 1>right now, the world's ocean freight industry about I think

0:32:25.600 --> 0:32:27.880
<v Speaker 1>it's sixty or seventy percent of the world's ocean freight

0:32:28.080 --> 0:32:33.080
<v Speaker 1>is contracted on an annual basis versus spot market where

0:32:33.080 --> 0:32:35.200
<v Speaker 1>they're signing like an annual rate and saying this is

0:32:35.200 --> 0:32:36.720
<v Speaker 1>gonna be I'm gonna pay this rate for the year,

0:32:36.760 --> 0:32:38.960
<v Speaker 1>and they go and contract that with ocean carriers or

0:32:39.040 --> 0:32:41.960
<v Speaker 1>with Freight forward and Company, or a platform like Flex Sports.

0:32:42.000 --> 0:32:44.560
<v Speaker 1>And right now is the season when that happens. It's

0:32:44.600 --> 0:32:48.000
<v Speaker 1>like April and May is when these decisions get made,

0:32:48.040 --> 0:32:51.000
<v Speaker 1>these contracts get negotiated, and so it is like the

0:32:51.040 --> 0:32:55.920
<v Speaker 1>worst possible timing. And these companies are struggling to get capacity.

0:32:55.960 --> 0:32:59.800
<v Speaker 1>And imagine being that logistics manager at a major corporation

0:33:00.160 --> 0:33:04.160
<v Speaker 1>who you are told by every company you talked to, sorry,

0:33:04.320 --> 0:33:07.280
<v Speaker 1>I can't give you capacity. Your company is not going

0:33:07.320 --> 0:33:09.720
<v Speaker 1>to grow, you're not gonna hit through sales goals like

0:33:09.960 --> 0:33:11.720
<v Speaker 1>I can only ship half of what you want to ship.

0:33:12.200 --> 0:33:14.160
<v Speaker 1>That is a really difficult position to be in, and

0:33:14.240 --> 0:33:17.360
<v Speaker 1>yet it's a brand new position. So these companies a

0:33:17.440 --> 0:33:20.280
<v Speaker 1>month ago might have been able to negotiate and get space,

0:33:20.560 --> 0:33:23.160
<v Speaker 1>but they didn't want to pay the rates, and it's

0:33:23.200 --> 0:33:25.160
<v Speaker 1>sort of a wake up call like, oh my goodness,

0:33:25.520 --> 0:33:27.760
<v Speaker 1>I'm not gonna get any space unless I pay the rates.

0:33:28.400 --> 0:33:31.040
<v Speaker 1>Companies are sort of having that moment of opening their

0:33:31.040 --> 0:33:32.840
<v Speaker 1>eyes and go, Okay, I guess we have to make

0:33:32.840 --> 0:33:36.880
<v Speaker 1>a decision. We're gonna do this or not. In your experience,

0:33:36.920 --> 0:33:41.440
<v Speaker 1>our companies absorbing the costs of higher shipping rates themselves

0:33:41.560 --> 0:33:46.280
<v Speaker 1>or are those costs getting passed onto consumers. I think

0:33:46.280 --> 0:33:49.400
<v Speaker 1>it's going to get passed through by good. Good companies

0:33:49.400 --> 0:33:52.000
<v Speaker 1>can raise their prices and um and people will pay

0:33:52.000 --> 0:33:54.200
<v Speaker 1>for the product if if that's because it's happening to

0:33:54.200 --> 0:33:56.880
<v Speaker 1>all the competitors equally, right, So you're just going to

0:33:56.960 --> 0:33:59.160
<v Speaker 1>see it come through in the form of more inflation.

0:34:00.720 --> 0:34:04.720
<v Speaker 1>Are we gonna see some of these like once? I mean,

0:34:04.960 --> 0:34:08.600
<v Speaker 1>some of these uh DTC companies that were probably growing

0:34:08.640 --> 0:34:12.560
<v Speaker 1>really fast and have huge demand face the situation which

0:34:12.600 --> 0:34:17.239
<v Speaker 1>they could have grown really fast and one but their

0:34:17.280 --> 0:34:20.680
<v Speaker 1>top line just didn't grow by that much because they

0:34:20.719 --> 0:34:23.799
<v Speaker 1>just couldn't move product. I think you'll see that they

0:34:23.800 --> 0:34:25.440
<v Speaker 1>still grew, I mean sort of like the market has

0:34:25.480 --> 0:34:27.400
<v Speaker 1>grown and that's what's happened. But but you won't be

0:34:27.400 --> 0:34:28.719
<v Speaker 1>able to see that. Hey, they might have been able

0:34:28.719 --> 0:34:30.520
<v Speaker 1>to grow even faster if they could have got more

0:34:30.520 --> 0:34:33.200
<v Speaker 1>product to market. And some of the ones that are

0:34:33.239 --> 0:34:35.839
<v Speaker 1>really good businesses with good margins are shifting to air

0:34:36.440 --> 0:34:38.680
<v Speaker 1>or that really care about the customer experience and demand

0:34:38.719 --> 0:34:40.759
<v Speaker 1>that growth and know they need to keep growing and

0:34:41.120 --> 0:34:42.800
<v Speaker 1>need to get to the next level of their business.

0:34:42.800 --> 0:34:45.799
<v Speaker 1>So they're doing there. They're shifting some capacity over the

0:34:45.840 --> 0:34:48.160
<v Speaker 1>air freight and getting creative. You know. One of the

0:34:48.200 --> 0:34:51.440
<v Speaker 1>things that you can do, you can pay more to

0:34:51.600 --> 0:34:54.840
<v Speaker 1>guarantee your space on the ship, and it costs a

0:34:54.880 --> 0:34:57.080
<v Speaker 1>couple thousand blucks extra, but guarantee it. And so you're

0:34:57.080 --> 0:34:59.960
<v Speaker 1>seeing a lot of people like pre pandemic flexport Abo

0:35:00.120 --> 0:35:03.000
<v Speaker 1>eleven of the containers that we shipped, we're on these

0:35:03.040 --> 0:35:06.160
<v Speaker 1>premium products and now it's uh I think it passed.

0:35:06.160 --> 0:35:07.799
<v Speaker 1>It was eight percent a couple of weeks ago. It's

0:35:07.800 --> 0:35:09.880
<v Speaker 1>got to be above by now. We've been getting more

0:35:09.880 --> 0:35:12.280
<v Speaker 1>and more demand for that. Yeah, this was an option

0:35:12.280 --> 0:35:15.000
<v Speaker 1>that was offered to me, but Bloomberg's budget does not

0:35:15.200 --> 0:35:19.359
<v Speaker 1>extend that far to premium shipping rates. You mentioned air

0:35:19.480 --> 0:35:23.799
<v Speaker 1>cargo just then. How nimble is that industry, because I imagine,

0:35:25.000 --> 0:35:29.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, maybe repurposing some old passenger planes is probably

0:35:29.280 --> 0:35:34.320
<v Speaker 1>a lot easier than trying to source new ships. Of

0:35:34.360 --> 0:35:37.520
<v Speaker 1>the world's air cargo lies in the belly of passenger planes,

0:35:37.719 --> 0:35:40.279
<v Speaker 1>by the way, which is a horrifying thought for you

0:35:40.360 --> 0:35:42.399
<v Speaker 1>as you leave Hong Kong to imagine what's down there.

0:35:43.400 --> 0:35:46.760
<v Speaker 1>Don't think about it next time you're flying Cafe. Those

0:35:46.840 --> 0:35:50.399
<v Speaker 1>planes are all grounded, which is uh to cut off

0:35:50.520 --> 0:35:53.760
<v Speaker 1>fifty percent of capacity on the airside from the start

0:35:53.800 --> 0:35:56.560
<v Speaker 1>of the pandemic and hasn't come basically hasn't come back online.

0:35:57.000 --> 0:36:00.839
<v Speaker 1>So that's the first thing we exper this first hand.

0:36:00.880 --> 0:36:04.839
<v Speaker 1>So last year, at the start of the pandemic, we

0:36:04.920 --> 0:36:08.480
<v Speaker 1>recognized pretty early on that their hospitals didn't have enough

0:36:08.520 --> 0:36:12.480
<v Speaker 1>PPE to get enough mass for their front line healthcare workers.

0:36:12.480 --> 0:36:14.479
<v Speaker 1>And that was true all over the world. UM, and

0:36:14.880 --> 0:36:17.720
<v Speaker 1>we I just sort of our flexpoort team just stepped

0:36:17.800 --> 0:36:22.400
<v Speaker 1>up and we actually chartered seventy seven passenger planes and

0:36:22.560 --> 0:36:25.680
<v Speaker 1>filled the cargo holds but also the seats and the

0:36:25.760 --> 0:36:29.400
<v Speaker 1>overhead compartments. We just stuffed mass everywhere. UM ended up

0:36:29.400 --> 0:36:33.799
<v Speaker 1>shipping about five million units of pp FO units of

0:36:33.880 --> 0:36:37.919
<v Speaker 1>PPE two to five continents healthcare workers, so we were

0:36:37.960 --> 0:36:41.279
<v Speaker 1>able to do it, but the break even price um

0:36:41.440 --> 0:36:45.080
<v Speaker 1>was pretty high. So passenger planes only make money, I

0:36:45.120 --> 0:36:48.399
<v Speaker 1>want to say, above ten bucks a quilo, and air

0:36:48.400 --> 0:36:51.520
<v Speaker 1>freight prices are normally about that's asia to us. Air

0:36:51.520 --> 0:36:54.880
<v Speaker 1>freight prices are normally like four bucks a quilo U.

0:36:55.400 --> 0:36:58.160
<v Speaker 1>Right now they've gone back up above ten. So we

0:36:58.160 --> 0:37:00.640
<v Speaker 1>were in the range where you might see some passenger

0:37:00.680 --> 0:37:02.560
<v Speaker 1>planes come back on and be used. They don't need

0:37:02.600 --> 0:37:06.359
<v Speaker 1>to be fully retrofitted. Like that's a longer term thing,

0:37:06.360 --> 0:37:08.480
<v Speaker 1>and I don't think the airline, the passenger airlines are

0:37:08.680 --> 0:37:11.760
<v Speaker 1>have reached that state very much yet. Um old seven

0:37:11.800 --> 0:37:14.719
<v Speaker 1>forty sevens are mostly gonna end up keep flying now

0:37:14.719 --> 0:37:16.480
<v Speaker 1>that they've retired the seven forty seven. You'll see those

0:37:16.480 --> 0:37:17.960
<v Speaker 1>live on as cargo planes for a long time and

0:37:18.000 --> 0:37:20.520
<v Speaker 1>they will get retrofitted. But you can actually use them

0:37:20.520 --> 0:37:22.560
<v Speaker 1>as a passenger plane and just ship cargo in the

0:37:22.600 --> 0:37:25.400
<v Speaker 1>luggage holds and in the overhead compartments. If you, if

0:37:25.440 --> 0:37:27.840
<v Speaker 1>you are so desperate as we were last year, what

0:37:28.040 --> 0:37:30.319
<v Speaker 1>is the state of the trucking market right now, and

0:37:30.360 --> 0:37:33.160
<v Speaker 1>how much of a bottleneck or how much is uh

0:37:33.320 --> 0:37:35.920
<v Speaker 1>for your clients. How much are the sort of after

0:37:36.000 --> 0:37:38.840
<v Speaker 1>get after the uh the container has taken off the

0:37:38.880 --> 0:37:41.600
<v Speaker 1>port and goes on to a truck. How jammed up

0:37:41.640 --> 0:37:43.520
<v Speaker 1>is that? Yeah? And there says there's a few different

0:37:43.600 --> 0:37:46.760
<v Speaker 1>chucking markets that are yeah, loosely related with someone independent.

0:37:46.800 --> 0:37:49.360
<v Speaker 1>And so the one that we play in is called dredge.

0:37:50.080 --> 0:37:53.399
<v Speaker 1>That's ocean port trucking where you're hauling a container out

0:37:53.400 --> 0:37:56.200
<v Speaker 1>of a port. UH. And then we call it cartage.

0:37:56.520 --> 0:37:58.120
<v Speaker 1>I don't know what that term came from Old English.

0:37:58.120 --> 0:38:01.080
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure cartagees airport shark when you're picking up a

0:38:02.239 --> 0:38:05.240
<v Speaker 1>shipment at an airport. UM. And that's where Flexiboard operates,

0:38:05.400 --> 0:38:07.680
<v Speaker 1>and I have the most inside of expertise there. Rather

0:38:07.719 --> 0:38:10.719
<v Speaker 1>than full truck load domestic trucking like point to point

0:38:10.719 --> 0:38:13.120
<v Speaker 1>within the country or or the other one is called

0:38:13.200 --> 0:38:15.479
<v Speaker 1>less than truck load shipping a palette point to point

0:38:15.760 --> 0:38:18.840
<v Speaker 1>on the ocean trucking, you have seen definitely shortages of

0:38:18.920 --> 0:38:22.360
<v Speaker 1>drivers and chassis. So that's the equipment shortage I mentioned

0:38:22.400 --> 0:38:24.680
<v Speaker 1>a little earlier. Flexbord has a big advantage. We build

0:38:24.680 --> 0:38:27.880
<v Speaker 1>technology for these truckers. So we have a suite that

0:38:27.920 --> 0:38:30.040
<v Speaker 1>we've had about a hundred and forty trucking companies that

0:38:30.080 --> 0:38:32.960
<v Speaker 1>run our software and mope with a mobile app and

0:38:33.000 --> 0:38:35.719
<v Speaker 1>a hardware device that plugs into the engine. And so

0:38:35.760 --> 0:38:38.239
<v Speaker 1>about thirty five percent of all the dreades trucks in

0:38:38.280 --> 0:38:41.600
<v Speaker 1>America have flexiboard software on them. And so we're able

0:38:41.640 --> 0:38:44.399
<v Speaker 1>to get access to trucks and find the closest truck

0:38:44.480 --> 0:38:47.000
<v Speaker 1>to the port and assign them a load, assigned that

0:38:47.120 --> 0:38:51.480
<v Speaker 1>driver aload, and we're now doing it of our shipments,

0:38:51.480 --> 0:38:53.600
<v Speaker 1>no human intervention. We just assigned the load and the

0:38:53.680 --> 0:38:55.960
<v Speaker 1>driver goes and picks it up. UM. So it's running

0:38:55.960 --> 0:38:59.040
<v Speaker 1>fairly smoothly for us. But we've seen the trucking companies

0:38:59.040 --> 0:39:01.600
<v Speaker 1>that come on board use flexport are struggling to get

0:39:01.880 --> 0:39:04.200
<v Speaker 1>enough drivers. And and that's a long term trend. You've

0:39:04.200 --> 0:39:06.600
<v Speaker 1>got a driver shortage. Turns out young people don't really

0:39:06.600 --> 0:39:09.040
<v Speaker 1>want to drive trucks. UM. So the average age of

0:39:09.040 --> 0:39:11.040
<v Speaker 1>truck drivers in this country keeps getting older and older

0:39:11.040 --> 0:39:15.600
<v Speaker 1>every single year. So here's the big question, what's your

0:39:15.640 --> 0:39:18.560
<v Speaker 1>instinct on how long this will actually go on for

0:39:19.280 --> 0:39:25.080
<v Speaker 1>and what's going to eventually hopefully solve the problem. Well,

0:39:25.120 --> 0:39:26.960
<v Speaker 1>I think this problem is going to get solved with

0:39:27.040 --> 0:39:30.160
<v Speaker 1>vaccines and a return to normalcy is our best hope

0:39:30.280 --> 0:39:33.560
<v Speaker 1>is that people start spending money in bars and restaurants

0:39:33.560 --> 0:39:36.160
<v Speaker 1>and hotels and travel plane tickets and don't have as

0:39:36.200 --> 0:39:39.040
<v Speaker 1>much money to buy stuff online and buy goods, and

0:39:40.160 --> 0:39:42.600
<v Speaker 1>that will sort of be that. That's what a literal

0:39:42.640 --> 0:39:45.480
<v Speaker 1>return to normalcy is. We used to economy used to

0:39:45.480 --> 0:39:48.080
<v Speaker 1>look more like that. On what timeline does that happen?

0:39:48.120 --> 0:39:50.600
<v Speaker 1>It's your because it is much better than mine. I

0:39:50.640 --> 0:39:54.399
<v Speaker 1>don't know. But are you seeing any easing yet? No,

0:39:54.480 --> 0:39:57.440
<v Speaker 1>not really. We're still still seeing similar levels of ordering

0:39:57.560 --> 0:39:59.920
<v Speaker 1>and and like to your point earlier, like if I

0:40:00.000 --> 0:40:01.719
<v Speaker 1>can't get my stuff, maybe I should order twice as

0:40:01.800 --> 0:40:04.799
<v Speaker 1>much stuff and um, And you're seeing that kind of

0:40:04.800 --> 0:40:07.920
<v Speaker 1>behavior more than more than a return to normalcy. At

0:40:08.000 --> 0:40:11.080
<v Speaker 1>some point, are people going to have massive inventories and

0:40:11.080 --> 0:40:14.879
<v Speaker 1>then maybe they'll stop shipping things so much? That's possible, Yeah,

0:40:14.920 --> 0:40:17.000
<v Speaker 1>And I think that's that's the downside of all of this,

0:40:17.120 --> 0:40:18.719
<v Speaker 1>is like we're all trying to predict the future, and

0:40:18.719 --> 0:40:20.920
<v Speaker 1>like we've just proven we're pretty bad at that, and

0:40:20.960 --> 0:40:23.480
<v Speaker 1>so right now everyone's predicting the future is going to

0:40:23.560 --> 0:40:25.600
<v Speaker 1>look more like what we see today. And you just

0:40:25.680 --> 0:40:27.839
<v Speaker 1>keep on ordering, ordering, ordering, and then at some point

0:40:27.880 --> 0:40:30.719
<v Speaker 1>your customers have shifted and they stop buying your cool

0:40:30.760 --> 0:40:32.600
<v Speaker 1>new products and they started spending money in the bar

0:40:32.719 --> 0:40:35.520
<v Speaker 1>like they used to, and you're stuck with all this inventory.

0:40:35.600 --> 0:40:37.480
<v Speaker 1>So yeah, that can that's the bull whip effect where

0:40:37.480 --> 0:40:40.640
<v Speaker 1>it just oscillates back and forth. Flex Port is a

0:40:40.680 --> 0:40:44.400
<v Speaker 1>technology company, and I feel like, you know, in in

0:40:44.560 --> 0:40:49.600
<v Speaker 1>normal times, everybody wants to I assume wants to optimize

0:40:49.600 --> 0:40:53.640
<v Speaker 1>their inventory and having you know, extra days of inventory

0:40:53.719 --> 0:40:56.160
<v Speaker 1>that they're not selling is a liability. And you want

0:40:56.200 --> 0:40:59.879
<v Speaker 1>to just into the dream scenario, get the ship right,

0:41:00.080 --> 0:41:01.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, a minute before you're gonna sell it. Everything

0:41:01.840 --> 0:41:05.359
<v Speaker 1>is just in time? And A is that a fair

0:41:05.440 --> 0:41:08.600
<v Speaker 1>characterization of how a lot of your clients operate? And

0:41:08.680 --> 0:41:11.880
<v Speaker 1>B is there a sort of a risk to this

0:41:12.000 --> 0:41:14.000
<v Speaker 1>sort of like just in time thinking? Will there be

0:41:14.160 --> 0:41:19.319
<v Speaker 1>a sort of rethink post pandemic, post crisis about the

0:41:19.600 --> 0:41:23.200
<v Speaker 1>costs of perfect optimization? And how are you thinking about

0:41:23.600 --> 0:41:27.960
<v Speaker 1>when things normalize whatever that means change? Will there be

0:41:28.000 --> 0:41:31.960
<v Speaker 1>any changes to uh behavior? Yeah, and it's got to

0:41:31.960 --> 0:41:35.000
<v Speaker 1>be cased by industry by industry, like some industry insteadives

0:41:35.040 --> 0:41:37.920
<v Speaker 1>absurd to have no inventory of ppe and stock like

0:41:37.960 --> 0:41:41.080
<v Speaker 1>that is almost criminally negligent. It's like, how we do

0:41:41.239 --> 0:41:43.959
<v Speaker 1>you know we can't have life saving equipment with no inventory.

0:41:44.160 --> 0:41:46.400
<v Speaker 1>It will be a decision for each company based on

0:41:46.440 --> 0:41:48.160
<v Speaker 1>the margins and how much it costs them to sit

0:41:48.200 --> 0:41:52.040
<v Speaker 1>on product, and is this product going bad fashion fast fashion?

0:41:52.320 --> 0:41:54.800
<v Speaker 1>Like is it going out of style in two weeks,

0:41:54.840 --> 0:41:56.719
<v Speaker 1>maybe you get maybe you revisit, maybe it could last

0:41:56.760 --> 0:41:58.839
<v Speaker 1>a month or something. I do think you're definitely gonna

0:41:58.840 --> 0:42:01.040
<v Speaker 1>see a reconciling there. And this is, by the way,

0:42:01.040 --> 0:42:03.440
<v Speaker 1>a longer term trend. It's like in the old world,

0:42:04.200 --> 0:42:07.080
<v Speaker 1>but I grew up in my mom bottle are closing

0:42:07.120 --> 0:42:10.760
<v Speaker 1>the series catalog and you just have one distribution center

0:42:11.480 --> 0:42:13.440
<v Speaker 1>in the middle of the country, and you could provide

0:42:13.440 --> 0:42:16.680
<v Speaker 1>a three week or seven days shipping time from one site.

0:42:17.480 --> 0:42:18.960
<v Speaker 1>But if you want to get to an e commerce

0:42:19.000 --> 0:42:21.759
<v Speaker 1>world where it's two hour delivery, you've got to have

0:42:22.480 --> 0:42:26.520
<v Speaker 1>inventory cash sort of the Internet term would be edge cashing,

0:42:26.560 --> 0:42:29.760
<v Speaker 1>your edge cashing your inventory, keeping it close to the customer,

0:42:30.239 --> 0:42:32.040
<v Speaker 1>and you've gotta have inventory and every single zip code

0:42:32.080 --> 0:42:34.560
<v Speaker 1>almost and that's a lot more inventory. So now you

0:42:34.600 --> 0:42:36.480
<v Speaker 1>need to really be smart, like how much inventory do

0:42:36.560 --> 0:42:40.360
<v Speaker 1>I want? What's the value of that customer proposition of

0:42:40.480 --> 0:42:43.359
<v Speaker 1>saying two hour versus two days, versus two week versus

0:42:43.400 --> 0:42:45.959
<v Speaker 1>two months. And that's the trade off that every brand

0:42:46.040 --> 0:42:48.640
<v Speaker 1>has to make, is between the customer experience they want

0:42:48.640 --> 0:42:50.840
<v Speaker 1>to create and the lost sales if they don't have

0:42:50.880 --> 0:42:54.200
<v Speaker 1>goods in stock, versus the cost of working capital. And

0:42:54.280 --> 0:42:56.919
<v Speaker 1>these are old models, like in business school, you'll see

0:42:56.920 --> 0:42:59.839
<v Speaker 1>this model in an Xcel operations class. You'll sell most

0:43:00.000 --> 0:43:02.959
<v Speaker 1>those busines school crowds like saved that Excel filand still

0:43:02.960 --> 0:43:05.239
<v Speaker 1>have it from their professor. But no one's ever been

0:43:05.280 --> 0:43:07.520
<v Speaker 1>really good at feeding real time data into that model.

0:43:08.120 --> 0:43:10.600
<v Speaker 1>And that's that's what technology enables today, is like we

0:43:10.640 --> 0:43:13.000
<v Speaker 1>can show you what our actual lead times when you

0:43:13.000 --> 0:43:16.120
<v Speaker 1>place the order with your factory, what's the actual transit time?

0:43:16.200 --> 0:43:19.240
<v Speaker 1>Not like your fudge your fudge factor thirty day number

0:43:19.719 --> 0:43:21.400
<v Speaker 1>that you put in your Excel model, but like, what

0:43:21.440 --> 0:43:25.480
<v Speaker 1>are we seeing trailing ninety days? What's the distribution curve? Data?

0:43:25.560 --> 0:43:28.400
<v Speaker 1>Data will help with these problems, um but at the

0:43:28.440 --> 0:43:29.640
<v Speaker 1>end of day, it's a trade off they have to

0:43:29.640 --> 0:43:32.719
<v Speaker 1>make between growth and the cost of capital. So what

0:43:32.800 --> 0:43:35.160
<v Speaker 1>should Tracy do to like get her. I don't even

0:43:35.200 --> 0:43:37.719
<v Speaker 1>know what she's shipping, but like, what is she doing wrong?

0:43:37.960 --> 0:43:41.160
<v Speaker 1>I do think it's I'm protecting yourself. You gotta you

0:43:41.239 --> 0:43:43.200
<v Speaker 1>gotta make that company that's trying to shoot your cargo

0:43:43.239 --> 0:43:46.280
<v Speaker 1>believe you're gonna be like this important long term customer

0:43:46.840 --> 0:43:49.680
<v Speaker 1>that's gonna be there for them in the future. Maybe

0:43:49.719 --> 0:43:52.960
<v Speaker 1>maybe call the guys, call the team at Bloomberg that

0:43:53.040 --> 0:43:56.200
<v Speaker 1>ships all your umbrellas and schwag and everything. Maybe maybe

0:43:56.200 --> 0:43:58.719
<v Speaker 1>they got some hookups for you. And uh, all right,

0:43:59.080 --> 0:44:01.879
<v Speaker 1>I'll give it a go with with Lars and cop again.

0:44:02.000 --> 0:44:04.239
<v Speaker 1>But yeah, I mean, I think they have to prioritize

0:44:04.280 --> 0:44:06.440
<v Speaker 1>and if and if I probably do the same thing.

0:44:06.480 --> 0:44:10.080
<v Speaker 1>No offense to you, but I gotta, I gotta who's

0:44:10.120 --> 0:44:12.200
<v Speaker 1>gonna be there for me next year in the year after.

0:44:12.280 --> 0:44:14.719
<v Speaker 1>If I'm if, I'm gonna choose which customer gets on

0:44:14.719 --> 0:44:16.000
<v Speaker 1>the boat. And it was like a sort of a

0:44:16.000 --> 0:44:18.640
<v Speaker 1>two way exchange that goes on in these in these

0:44:18.680 --> 0:44:21.000
<v Speaker 1>negotiations of who gets on the boat and who doesn't.

0:44:21.200 --> 0:44:24.359
<v Speaker 1>I can't believe my mostly empty container being shipped for

0:44:24.440 --> 0:44:27.719
<v Speaker 1>the purposes of stunt journalism is not a priority for

0:44:27.760 --> 0:44:32.600
<v Speaker 1>these companies. Amazing. All right, well, Ryan, it was lovely

0:44:32.640 --> 0:44:35.680
<v Speaker 1>talking to you. Thank you so much. Great guys, thank

0:44:35.680 --> 0:44:51.120
<v Speaker 1>you all. It's great, Joe. I love that conversation. So

0:44:51.239 --> 0:44:54.680
<v Speaker 1>nice to be talking. You know. I like talking about markets,

0:44:54.719 --> 0:44:57.680
<v Speaker 1>and I like talking about economic and financial theory, but

0:44:57.880 --> 0:45:01.080
<v Speaker 1>sometimes it's nice to talk about actual things and the

0:45:01.120 --> 0:45:04.000
<v Speaker 1>way they move around the world. And I think I

0:45:04.080 --> 0:45:06.440
<v Speaker 1>mentioned this before, but it kind of gets to one

0:45:06.480 --> 0:45:08.960
<v Speaker 1>of my pet themes for the year, which is this

0:45:09.120 --> 0:45:14.000
<v Speaker 1>idea that economics actually does a terrible job of incorporating

0:45:14.080 --> 0:45:17.359
<v Speaker 1>and thinking about logistics, and this is the year that's

0:45:17.440 --> 0:45:20.279
<v Speaker 1>kind of proven that. But the other thing I liked

0:45:20.280 --> 0:45:23.240
<v Speaker 1>in that conversation was Ryan's point that this whole problem

0:45:23.320 --> 0:45:27.200
<v Speaker 1>started from expectations and an incorrect view of what the

0:45:27.239 --> 0:45:30.879
<v Speaker 1>future actually turned out to be, and now we're trying

0:45:30.920 --> 0:45:35.200
<v Speaker 1>to solve it with expectations yet again, ramping up inventories

0:45:35.280 --> 0:45:38.400
<v Speaker 1>and orders, and the big question is whether or not

0:45:38.600 --> 0:45:42.239
<v Speaker 1>it's actually going to materialize the way we think it is.

0:45:43.040 --> 0:45:45.359
<v Speaker 1>You took the words right out of my mouth, and

0:45:45.800 --> 0:45:50.600
<v Speaker 1>I think that's exactly right. Like everything is expectations and everything,

0:45:50.760 --> 0:45:56.799
<v Speaker 1>like so many conversations like expectations about the future end

0:45:56.880 --> 0:46:00.600
<v Speaker 1>up affecting the right now, and uh in all different

0:46:00.640 --> 0:46:03.800
<v Speaker 1>kinds of ways. So whether it's expectations like, oh, shipping

0:46:03.840 --> 0:46:05.919
<v Speaker 1>costs are gonna come down, so we're gonna like hold

0:46:05.920 --> 0:46:08.560
<v Speaker 1>off and then we have to pay more, or even

0:46:09.160 --> 0:46:12.600
<v Speaker 1>uh Ryan's points like, well, maybe you'll get greater investment

0:46:12.680 --> 0:46:16.080
<v Speaker 1>in shipping capacity, but only if there is the expectation

0:46:16.200 --> 0:46:19.120
<v Speaker 1>that global shipping remains very high. And of course, as

0:46:19.160 --> 0:46:22.400
<v Speaker 1>we talked about in um Levinson and this sort of

0:46:22.440 --> 0:46:29.759
<v Speaker 1>like the decline of globalization that leading to consolidation of capacity,

0:46:29.840 --> 0:46:34.880
<v Speaker 1>Like everything about expectations ends up having an effect right now.

0:46:34.880 --> 0:46:36.640
<v Speaker 1>And I just think that's such a fascinating thing that

0:46:36.960 --> 0:46:39.560
<v Speaker 1>turns up like over and over again in our conversation.

0:46:40.600 --> 0:46:43.160
<v Speaker 1>And I gotta say the bonus of all these episodes

0:46:43.200 --> 0:46:46.120
<v Speaker 1>about logistics and lumber and actual things is that we're

0:46:46.120 --> 0:46:51.279
<v Speaker 1>really learning great new terms like stumpage, fees, bill of

0:46:51.400 --> 0:46:54.880
<v Speaker 1>lading and dray edge, which I always I said it before,

0:46:54.880 --> 0:46:57.120
<v Speaker 1>but I always thought it was ladding and dry edge.

0:46:57.239 --> 0:47:01.200
<v Speaker 1>So the more you know and the general what was it?

0:47:01.280 --> 0:47:04.960
<v Speaker 1>I can't remember general something liability, but actually I need

0:47:05.000 --> 0:47:07.400
<v Speaker 1>to look it up for this container. Now I'm worried

0:47:07.600 --> 0:47:10.319
<v Speaker 1>what was the one ship to show was that we're

0:47:10.320 --> 0:47:13.400
<v Speaker 1>going to have to start uh an All Thoughts glossary.

0:47:13.480 --> 0:47:15.239
<v Speaker 1>I think, no, oh yeah, that's a good idea. But

0:47:15.280 --> 0:47:17.960
<v Speaker 1>also I thought that was like super interesting again because

0:47:18.000 --> 0:47:21.439
<v Speaker 1>it's like, you know, how much of these businesses it's

0:47:21.480 --> 0:47:24.280
<v Speaker 1>not just you know we think of like, oh, everything

0:47:24.400 --> 0:47:26.319
<v Speaker 1>is just like a pure auction, right, It's like there's

0:47:26.360 --> 0:47:29.560
<v Speaker 1>capacity and who pays the most, But of course from

0:47:29.560 --> 0:47:33.040
<v Speaker 1>the perspective of the shipper, like they want to reward

0:47:33.040 --> 0:47:35.680
<v Speaker 1>their good customers, and who's going to be the customer

0:47:35.719 --> 0:47:37.879
<v Speaker 1>a year from now? And who is the best ship

0:47:37.880 --> 0:47:40.319
<v Speaker 1>to show, like who actually shows up? Like all of

0:47:40.360 --> 0:47:44.360
<v Speaker 1>these things that are beyond just like pure pure price.

0:47:44.800 --> 0:47:48.840
<v Speaker 1>I guess I would say end up determining somebody. Fascinating thing. Again,

0:47:48.880 --> 0:47:51.680
<v Speaker 1>it kind of gets back to expectations, right, who do

0:47:51.760 --> 0:47:56.239
<v Speaker 1>you expect will be a better customer over time? Totally? All? Right?

0:47:56.520 --> 0:47:59.560
<v Speaker 1>Should we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This

0:47:59.640 --> 0:48:02.600
<v Speaker 1>has been in another episode of the All Thoughts podcast.

0:48:02.760 --> 0:48:05.680
<v Speaker 1>I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at

0:48:05.719 --> 0:48:09.319
<v Speaker 1>Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Wisn'tal. You can follow me

0:48:09.480 --> 0:48:13.160
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at the Stalwart. Follow our guest Ryan Peterson.

0:48:13.239 --> 0:48:16.560
<v Speaker 1>Here's the CEO flex Port. His handle on Twitter is

0:48:16.719 --> 0:48:21.080
<v Speaker 1>at types Fast. Follow our producer Laura Carlson. She's at

0:48:21.160 --> 0:48:24.839
<v Speaker 1>Laura M. Carlson. Follow the Bloomberg head of podcast, Francesca

0:48:24.920 --> 0:48:28.239
<v Speaker 1>Levi at Francesca Today, and check out all of our

0:48:28.280 --> 0:48:32.840
<v Speaker 1>podcasts at Bloomberg under the handle at podcasts. Thanks for listening.