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Speaker 2: App on Wall Straight On my Secuity Market, Liz Young,

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Speaker 2: head of investment strategy at so Far, Liz, wonderful to

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Speaker 2: see you and thanks for being with us. I think

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Speaker 2: the question of the moment can this market rally broaden out?

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Speaker 2: Can it? Liz?

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Speaker 3: Well, it always can, and you know we're obviously in

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Speaker 3: the beginning of a very important week, and each FED

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Speaker 3: meeting continues to be the most important one since the

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Speaker 3: last one. But what we've seen over the last week

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Speaker 3: or so is that you are getting some strength from

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Speaker 3: some of those sort of regular stocks. We've got now

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Speaker 3: more than fifty percent of the SMP back above the

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Speaker 3: two hundred day moving average, which is a good sign.

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Speaker 3: And you're getting participation from sectors that hadn't participated in

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Speaker 3: this rally since probably last year at some point, So

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Speaker 3: it's important to have those signals. It's important to see

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Speaker 3: smaller cap stocks participating because that's what you would expect

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Speaker 3: if we were in the early expansion phase or if

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Speaker 3: we were in a newer bowl market. The big question now,

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Speaker 3: and we continue to see this throughout this entire cycle,

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Speaker 3: as we get to these decision points. The next level

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Speaker 3: on the SMP that everybody's want is forty three twenty five,

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Speaker 3: which was the intra day high last August. Can we

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Speaker 3: make it to that point and beyond? And that continues

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Speaker 3: to be the big question. I don't know that we're

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Speaker 3: going to see this strength persist through what continues to

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Speaker 3: be a hiking cycle and pressure on valuation Lisz so

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Speaker 3: far as a.

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Speaker 1: Different remit what are you seeing from SULFI clients, the customers,

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Speaker 1: the people that make so far go, What are you

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Speaker 1: seeing in terms of their relative gloom or optimism? I

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Speaker 1: get mixed signals.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's interesting.

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Speaker 3: We tend to skew younger, especially on the investor side,

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Speaker 3: so you end.

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Speaker 1: Up under sixty, under sixty, under sixty five sixty nice Liz,

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Speaker 1: keep it on, Liz, book the interurn over here, booked,

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Speaker 1: what the hell is that about? Keep it going list.

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Speaker 3: So what you generally see from a younger investor is

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Speaker 3: still interest in headline making names. You want titans of

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Speaker 3: tech and sort of the disruptors, So there is still

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Speaker 3: a lot of interest and appetite for those names. One

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Speaker 3: of the things that has been surprising to me that

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Speaker 3: even after last year's tough market, we did a lot

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Speaker 3: of surveys of our investors, and you hear things like

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Speaker 3: we're still planning to invest just as much, if not more,

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Speaker 3: despite the bear market. So it's encouraging that you still

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Speaker 3: even have on the younger end of the spectrum, people

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Speaker 3: have appetite for long term investing and understanding, maybe more

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Speaker 3: so than we expected that bear markets do happen that

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Speaker 3: this is part of long term investing. I think in

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Speaker 3: the short term, the headlines do drive a lot of

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Speaker 3: that sentiment. And obviously, something that we've seen over the

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Speaker 3: last week with every investor, not just the SOFI investor,

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Speaker 3: is that once the market starts to move in a

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Speaker 3: different direction and you've got some optimism that starts to

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Speaker 3: show up in the tape, suddenly everybody sentiment changes. And

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Speaker 3: that's a good thing, I think for the appetite and

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Speaker 3: the buying opportunities that people might see. However, it does

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Speaker 3: sometimes skew the risk that's still lurking out there, especially

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Speaker 3: in a rising rate environment. So multiple expansion is not

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Speaker 3: something that I think many investors have understood from both

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Speaker 3: sides of the coin in the last couple of years.

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Speaker 3: Because multiple expansion has been supported largely by monetary policy liquidity,

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Speaker 3: and now we're in this environment where a lot of

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Speaker 3: that is coming out of the system. I don't think

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Speaker 3: multiple expansion is warranted right now, and it's something that

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Speaker 3: I think starts to sort of trick a more.

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Speaker 4: Unexperienced investor.

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Speaker 5: Is big tech no longer interest rate sensitive?

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Speaker 3: I think it's still interest rates sensitive. If you're looking

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Speaker 3: at it just in a growth bucket, right, But that's

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Speaker 3: not necessarily how investors have treated Big Tech.

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Speaker 4: I think they've actually.

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Speaker 3: Removed those big names from the growth bucket and they're

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Speaker 3: thinking of them in a different way, partially thinking of

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Speaker 3: them in a defensive manner. And this is the part

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Speaker 3: of the economy that's going to continue to lead and

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Speaker 3: going to be strong for us for the rest of

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Speaker 3: seemingly our lives. But then there's also so this other

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Speaker 3: piece of it that people have gotten very enthusiastic about

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Speaker 3: with the AI theme. The thing about a theme is

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Speaker 3: that you usually invest in a theme for a two

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Speaker 3: to five year period. There's been so much enthusiasm about

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Speaker 3: AI in the last few months.

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Speaker 4: I just don't think people are going to.

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Speaker 3: Get the gratification of that enthusiasm as quickly as they

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Speaker 3: want to. So if you're thinking about stock from a

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Speaker 3: growth in value perspective, big Tech is probably acting a

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Speaker 3: bit different than what we would expect from a growthy

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Speaker 3: name in this environment. That hasn't necessarily changed, and it's

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Speaker 3: something that I think has served investors well over most

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Speaker 3: of this cycle. There hasn't really been a big reason

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Speaker 3: to believe otherwise yet.

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Speaker 2: Lis Young so find Liz Erowa so always welcome back.

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Speaker 2: Thank you LIZI, thanks catching up, Thank you. That's a wife.

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Speaker 1: We are thrilled to Michael Mayo with this managing director

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Speaker 1: at Wells Fargo. Here off of twenty years, I will say,

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Speaker 1: Mike Mail of covering banks, of covering ubs, of covering

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Speaker 1: credit suite in the rest. So let's talk about this

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Speaker 1: historic day. We go SBC ubs, UBS takes out credit

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Speaker 1: suite and here we are. Was this because of greed?

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Speaker 1: Was this because of the absolute demand to create revenue.

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Speaker 1: We don't care what the quality of the revenue is

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Speaker 1: going to be. We just need to get new revenue.

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Speaker 1: Is that what happened to your credit suite? Well?

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Speaker 6: I didn't officially cover credit suite, but I can comment

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Speaker 6: on the European banks, which has sure woefully lagged the

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Speaker 6: US banks. And some of this is structural. After the

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Speaker 6: global financial crisis, they did not recapitalize at the pace

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Speaker 6: of the US banks. And some of this is simply cultural,

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Speaker 6: which I lived through, and it was sometimes growth at

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Speaker 6: any price, growth that you know, extraordinary risk. And so

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Speaker 6: I'd say there are some culturally flawed European organizations or

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Speaker 6: which that I worked at. But it's played out through

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Speaker 6: the numbers, and it's relevant to by analysis of the

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Speaker 6: US banks now because Goliath is winning and the goliath

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Speaker 6: are the largest US bank.

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Speaker 1: Is mister Ormadi in his red lines going to be

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Speaker 1: a change agent and can mister Diamond, with a completely

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Speaker 1: separate issue this Epstein scandal be a change agent towards

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Speaker 1: and more discerning choice of clients.

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Speaker 6: Well, you know your customer is banking one oh one,

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Speaker 6: and I don't deal directly with, say the investment banking clients,

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Speaker 6: but I have a compliance exam several times a year,

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Speaker 6: as does everybody on Wall Street in the United States.

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Speaker 7: But there might be.

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Speaker 6: More restrictions on which clients you're allowed to take. So

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Speaker 6: there's going to be an extra check, and so it's

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Speaker 6: not all clients come to us. It's going to be

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Speaker 6: a smaller subset of what you deal with today.

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Speaker 8: You say goliaths are winning, are the smaller banks losing?

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Speaker 8: Just putting aside Europe.

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Speaker 6: Yes, we conducted an analysis. We did a kitchen sink

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Speaker 6: analysis where we had four haircuts. One haircut was deposits

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Speaker 6: leave by another eight percent in the industry. Another haircut

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Speaker 6: would be provisions equal to a recession level, extra expenses

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Speaker 6: for new regulation. And we have the Fed fund rake

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Speaker 6: go all the way down to two point seventy five percent,

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Speaker 6: which would hurt the net interest margins. Regional banks get

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Speaker 6: hurt by twenty five percent to earnings. Large banks get

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Speaker 6: hurt by maybe five percent ten percent. So Goliath is

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Speaker 6: winning and Goliath is winning even more. But I wanted

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Speaker 6: to make one clear statement today and that relates to

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Speaker 6: actually the regional banks for making some comeback. And so

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Speaker 6: the statement is that the detour for Garriot Okay, well,

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Speaker 6: you know I'm cheesy. I have my props. A detour

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Speaker 6: for not owning banks docs is over.

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Speaker 1: So those of you it's like end construction. So those

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Speaker 1: are you on the radio? He's got give me that

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Speaker 1: road sign over there, bringing a stop sign next time

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Speaker 1: it might stop m MD tour is what he's saying

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Speaker 1: on radio. It's one of those range it's one of

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Speaker 1: those range signs, like the real sign. What do you say,

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Speaker 1: steal us off the construction sign for the Bloom's your

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Speaker 1: head top? He stole his sign off the construction side

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Speaker 1: of the Bloomberg pothole at Lexington and fifty eight.

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Speaker 8: All right, the prop aside, I am wondering why now,

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Speaker 8: because you talk about this potential twenty five percent hit

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Speaker 8: to their profits. This is significant. You basically just saying

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Speaker 8: it's priced in. We've priced in all of that and

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Speaker 8: then some. So it's time to hoover up some of

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Speaker 8: these smaller stocks that have gotten being up.

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Speaker 6: Well, what I say, the larger regional banks, Look, they're

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Speaker 6: not going to zero. You had your failures from idiosyncratic events.

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Speaker 6: They're not raising equity at least the largest banks. Look,

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Speaker 6: you've had three banks that were in the S and

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Speaker 6: P five hundred at the start of the year that failed. Okay,

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Speaker 6: that's done. All right, So this idea, this almost hysteria

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Speaker 6: as relates to the largest banks, it is over, and

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Speaker 6: it's been over for the last four weeks. I mean,

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Speaker 6: these the banks have gone up by over ten percent

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Speaker 6: during that time. They've outperformed the S and P five hundred,

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Speaker 6: but they've no way caught up to the broader SMP

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Speaker 6: five hundred. So you're saying, what could have legs in

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Speaker 6: the market bank stock? The larger bank stock certainly could.

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Speaker 6: Like a US bank court which has been pummeled and

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Speaker 6: it's one of the highest quality banks out.

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Speaker 8: There, although in fairness they haven't gotten pummeled as much

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Speaker 8: as some of the others. And I do wonder, I mean,

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Speaker 8: I get your point. With those particular ones. Do the

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Speaker 8: largest mid sized banks hold up even if you get

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Speaker 8: additional failures on the lower end at a time when

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Speaker 8: the emergency landing facility at the FED is still being

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Speaker 8: used at a pretty significant rate.

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Speaker 6: Well, I'm going to avoid your question just for one moment.

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Speaker 6: There's a big news last week, and I think the

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Speaker 6: one outlook that really picked up when it was Bloomberg.

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Speaker 6: There was over ten billion dollars of debt issued by

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Speaker 6: the large regional banks. It was the first issue since

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Speaker 6: the failure of Silicon Valley. It was four to five

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Speaker 6: times oversubscribed and the spreads came in pretty well. So

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Speaker 6: for those banks, yes, below that level, below the level

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Speaker 6: the top ten banks, it's still to be determined how

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Speaker 6: much wherewithal they'll have to access the debt markets. That

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Speaker 6: hasn't happened yet, So you're right, there is a divide.

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Speaker 6: Golias are winning. The next level down is tap the

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Speaker 6: markets below that. It weighed the scene and once you

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Speaker 6: get past this acute stage, you still have a recession

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Speaker 6: with commercial real estate, and most of the commercial real

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Speaker 6: estate loans are for banks below the top ten.

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Speaker 1: Move the decimal point, Mike Mayo, City Group after a

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Speaker 1: ten to one reverse split way back four dollars eighty

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Speaker 1: three cents, which is basically unchanged from two thousand and nine.

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Speaker 1: I detect some Jane Fraser moves. They seem to be

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Speaker 1: consolidating and simplifying the process. What is the new What

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Speaker 1: is the next City Group look like?

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Speaker 6: The next City Group looks a lot like the old

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Speaker 6: City Group before the merger in nineteen ninety eight. So

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Speaker 6: this is City Groups the silver anniversary.

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Speaker 1: Gospel folks, This goes back to when Mayo was candid,

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Speaker 1: credit sweet.

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Speaker 6: Continue and so this is City Group's silver anniversary. It's

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Speaker 6: their twenty five year anniversary, and it's certainly not a

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Speaker 6: cause for celebration. The stocks down over three fourths at

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Speaker 6: a time, the stock markets more than tripled. They failed

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Speaker 6: on almost every measure.

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Speaker 1: What is she doing different? What does the courage she's

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Speaker 1: doing right now to get them back to John Reid?

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Speaker 6: Well, she's simplifying. You know the old adage, Tom, is

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Speaker 6: that global banking, wholesale banking, is global. Consumer banking is local,

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Speaker 6: and that even predates this merger. This goes back to

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Speaker 6: Walter Riston and we're talking about a fifty year failed

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Speaker 6: strategy where City Group thought they could go ahead and

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Speaker 6: you know, you know, have a customer in Hong Kong

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Speaker 6: whose kids go to boarding school in London and they

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Speaker 6: vacation and aspen and we're going to serve that life.

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Speaker 6: What's that?

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Speaker 8: Now?

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Speaker 7: Got one more question life, Teddy.

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Speaker 6: That's failed. She's reversing that, going global with wholesale and

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Speaker 6: getting rid of the non US consumer.

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Speaker 5: You dodged one thing. So I'm going to come back

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Speaker 5: to it just real quickly.

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Speaker 8: If smaller banks start to fail again, are all bets

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Speaker 8: off with the largest regionals.

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Speaker 6: The smallest banks are not systemic. There's over forty five

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Speaker 6: hundred banks. You're going to have bank failure. That's a

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Speaker 6: rule of banking. But it's not going to be any

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Speaker 6: bank in the SMP five hundred in my view over

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Speaker 6: the you know, many immediate time frames. So that phase

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Speaker 6: is over. It's the you know this idea of you know, Tom,

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Speaker 6: you can hold it up, the idea.

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Speaker 5: Just don't hit hear it again.

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Speaker 6: The detour away from banks has ended right if we can.

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Speaker 1: Okay, we got twenty seconds MD tour, MD tour. What's

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Speaker 1: your single best buy right now?

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Speaker 6: You know, I'm going with JP Morgan and City Grew

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Speaker 6: as my top two pick, but I'm also adding in

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Speaker 6: there right now the US Bancorp, which has been relatively

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Speaker 6: pummeled given the quality should.

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Speaker 1: Hit him in the head. No, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: Probert Tip is the chief investment strategist for p JUM.

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Speaker 1: Robert just simply, right now, what are you doing to

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Speaker 1: adjust for a mid year adjustment? Everyone in equity land

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Speaker 1: is adjusting like crazy, particularly bears or near bears. How

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Speaker 1: does fixed income adjust.

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Speaker 9: Right? Well, I think to Lisa's point there, you know,

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Speaker 9: are people ignoring some of the data and some of

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Speaker 9: the market messages in terms of the the equity market.

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Speaker 9: People have been very zeroed in on the narrowness of

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Speaker 9: the rally with tech stocks. But you know, the fact

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Speaker 9: of the matter is on a country basis, Europe Japan

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Speaker 9: have been doing really well even before the US, so

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Speaker 9: there's a breadth of growth out there. And the reason

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Speaker 9: I mentioned that, because that is the threat to the

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Speaker 9: fixed income market, is that the economy is doing reasonably well.

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Speaker 9: But if you wondered what a price wage spiral looks like,

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Speaker 9: I think you're looking at it. You know, it's been

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Speaker 9: some time here where wages have budged, they've moved up,

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Speaker 9: they're not surging, but some of the settlements that you

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Speaker 9: see around the world coming out of negotiations are high,

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Speaker 9: and inflation, you know, on a core basis, is running

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Speaker 9: around I mean the better part of five percent, and

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Speaker 9: there's not a lot of signs of acceleration there. So

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Speaker 9: maybe it's not a wage price spiral, but it's certainly

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Speaker 9: a wage price race. You know, it's a horse race

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Speaker 9: out there, and that is what could cause it to

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Speaker 9: be a very long time for inflation to come down.

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Speaker 9: Bring us back to that comment of the being at

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Speaker 9: these levels for a very long time and not putt

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Speaker 9: a little bit of upward pressure on the middle of

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Speaker 9: the yell curve.

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Speaker 5: So there's a lot to impact there.

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Speaker 8: And let's just start and sort of elaborate on your

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Speaker 8: point about a wage price spiral basically being here, or

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Speaker 8: a wage price escalation, whatever you want to call it,

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Speaker 8: a skip jump, pause, whatever. I am curious about what

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Speaker 8: data you're looking at to give you that assertion.

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Speaker 5: Give considering the.

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Speaker 8: Fact that FED officials have said that their concerns about

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Speaker 8: a wage price spiral have been eased, We've heard a

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Speaker 8: number of others saying the same kind of thing, especially

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Speaker 8: with a deceleration recently.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, you could make that comment from average

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Speaker 9: hourly earnings, and if you really want it to be optimistic,

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Speaker 9: you could even make it from the ECI Employment Costs Index.

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Speaker 9: But those sample sizes, especially on payrolls, I mean, they're

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Speaker 9: not particularly large, they're subject to revision. An ECI running

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Speaker 9: about one point one percent or so on a trailing

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Speaker 9: I think it's around five percent. Actually, there's not been

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Speaker 9: a lot of deceleration there. And you know, when you

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Speaker 9: look at what's going on in the labor market, there's

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Speaker 9: been huge growth in the labor force and the hiring

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Speaker 9: is going on at a multiple of the pace needed

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Speaker 9: to stay full employment. So you know, if you want

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Speaker 9: to drill down and you want to be optimistic, you

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Speaker 9: can find things that say, oh, yeah, I know this

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Speaker 9: is going to be okay. But that's usually the way

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Speaker 9: it ends up going the way you don't want it

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Speaker 9: to go for longer than you expect, and that's what

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Speaker 9: I think market pricing is missing here.

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Speaker 8: The irony is that JP Morgan put out a paper

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Speaker 8: saying that if bonds are right, stocks have to sell

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Speaker 8: off by twenty percent, And bonds usually are right, but

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Speaker 8: this time, Robert, are you basically saying that stocks are right,

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Speaker 8: that bonds need to catch up to where stocks are

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Speaker 8: and that won't necessitates some sort of response from the Fed.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, I think I'm saying that markets actually,

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Speaker 9: to me, markets look right. When you look at these

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Speaker 9: large cap companies in the stock market, earnings growth is

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Speaker 9: not fantastic. That these companies have seen a lot of

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Speaker 9: action over the last few years, just like everybody else,

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Speaker 9: and they've come through pretty well. So they're showing a

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Speaker 9: resilience to calamity, granted with a lot of fiscal stimulus,

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Speaker 9: but they've shown a lot of restraint on the way back.

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Speaker 9: So they have a lot of cyclical resilience on the

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Speaker 9: way down. And they've shown a fair amount of ability,

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Speaker 9: not in real terms really, but to hold up and

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Speaker 9: keep their earnings in an inflationary environment.

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Speaker 5: But what is that?

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Speaker 9: So I think that's, you know, maybe what's supporting this market.

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Speaker 9: But overall, it looks like a good investment environment. Out

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Speaker 9: there for long term fixed income. But there are some

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Speaker 9: you know, some things to avoid by pricing on parts

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Speaker 9: of the yield curve in particular.

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Speaker 5: So how much could that mid year yield curve go up?

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Speaker 8: In other words, are you looking at a pretty substantial

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Speaker 8: rise in yield price lower?

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Speaker 9: I think you're looking at a slow burn. Tom asked

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Speaker 9: the question. You know we're going to be here, We're

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Speaker 9: going to be a percent your market pricing. You know,

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Speaker 9: a year or so out has over one hundred basis

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Speaker 9: points of rate cuts priced in, so the market is

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Speaker 9: banking on that turnaround. And so I think you could

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Speaker 9: see a very slow increase in the range for tens.

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Speaker 9: You can see them push up towards four percent. And

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Speaker 9: if it turns out you need these five percent plus

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Speaker 9: fed funds rates for a very long time, or in

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Speaker 9: the case of Europe, pushing four percent for a long time,

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Speaker 9: et cetera around much of the world, you're going to

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Speaker 9: see you could very easily see over the next one

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Speaker 9: two five years, you know, fifty hundred basis point slow

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Speaker 9: burn move higher in rates.

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Speaker 7: Right, it's the curt.

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Speaker 1: I find interesting here. Robert tipped the idea of an

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Speaker 1: ambiguity between rates higher rates, lawyer obviously lower. Obviously, somebody

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Speaker 1: has their own belief in that is the solution from

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Speaker 1: your mortals to barbell or to ladder out maturities. Is

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Speaker 1: Kathy Jones, a schwab mentioned to us last week.

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Speaker 9: Right, Well, I'm a mere mortal portfolio manager, and yes,

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Speaker 9: barbelling is an approach and being tactical on the curve.

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Speaker 9: And the reason I mentioned mortals as a portfolio manager is,

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Speaker 9: you know, if you're an individual and you're buying your

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Speaker 9: bonds on a buy and hold basis, that may not

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Speaker 9: be that effective. I mean, there are opportunities in terms

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Speaker 9: of floating rates, structure, product, and very high quality that's

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Speaker 9: going to key off of the funds rate. You know,

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Speaker 9: where the yields are pushing seven percent, and there are

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Speaker 9: opportunities in the longer term credit markets again where the

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Speaker 9: yields are much higher than cash number one. Number two,

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Speaker 9: the pricing has been extremely dynamic. So before SVD, the

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Speaker 9: Silicon Valley Bank debacle, there was pricing in the very

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Speaker 9: front end of the curve the first handful of months

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Speaker 9: that was extremely attractive and you wanted to have duration there.

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Speaker 9: And then post SVB that you may want to be short.

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Speaker 9: So tactically, i've you know, what we've seen over the

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Speaker 9: years is cycles for the market have been compressed into

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Speaker 9: weeks and days, and so that may not lend itself

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Speaker 9: well to kind of a static barbeling approach.

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Speaker 1: Very quickly here we're out of time, but this is

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Speaker 1: too important. Gazillions are going into money market funds. All

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Speaker 1: my radars up. What's a mistake right now of piling

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Speaker 1: into five percent plus money market funds?

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Speaker 9: Right? You know, my expectation would be, you know, there

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Speaker 9: are two possible problems. They're the one is the economy

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Speaker 9: is much weaker than expected. Rates drop and they end

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Speaker 9: up losing their income and they haven't locked it in

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Speaker 9: for what their real timeframe is, which is saving for

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Speaker 9: the long term. The other thing is there's a lot

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Speaker 9: of alpha in the market further out the yield curve

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Speaker 9: and in the credit sectors, and they're obviously not going

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Speaker 9: to be availing themselves of that well.

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Speaker 2: But tape of page on a cash trap. At the

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Speaker 2: end of that conversation, this is going to.

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Speaker 1: Get a lot more complex, and I think we'll learn

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Speaker 1: day by day here on far more serious chargers perhaps,

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Speaker 1: and what we see in new York. John Leber's expert

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Speaker 1: on this is the United States managing director at Eurrasia

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Speaker 1: Group and joins us for a Monday brief on an

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Speaker 1: historic Tuesday that we will see tomorrow. Bloomberging particularly Balance

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Speaker 1: of Power will have full coverage of this, John, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for joining. What's this judge going to

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Speaker 1: do tomorrow? She's a Trump appointee, you know her. You

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Speaker 1: can brief us on.

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Speaker 7: Who she is, what will she do?

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Speaker 10: You know, this indictment is historic, as you mentioned, and

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Speaker 10: we've never seen anything like this, and there's a whole

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Speaker 10: host of considerations when you're looking at a high ranking

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Speaker 10: political official like President Trump that just aren't going to

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Speaker 10: be in play with other people, the publicity.

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Speaker 7: There's a major security concern.

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Speaker 10: But you know, I think we saw his indictment in

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Speaker 10: New York in many ways it was pretty normal. You know,

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Speaker 10: the Secret Service walking in, they had an arrangement. So Tuesday,

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Speaker 10: to me, isn't the really important date. It's what happens

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Speaker 10: over the coming months and the kinds of decisions that

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Speaker 10: she'll be making to either admit evidence or exclude evidence,

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Speaker 10: and how she instructs a jury if one ever comes.

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Speaker 7: Together There's a lot of really complicated legal.

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Speaker 10: Questions here, and the key question to me coming forward

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Speaker 10: forward is how do you find an unbiased jury for

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Speaker 10: the most famous man probably in the world. Everybody in

437
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,639
Speaker 10: America has thoughts on this guy, and probably most people

438
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 10: have exposure to this case.

439
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 7: There's me a lot of tough questions for this judge

440
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 7: going forward.

441
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 1: Well, this is aileen canon of Miami in the federal court.

442
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 1: Are those decisions going to begin to be made tomorrow?

443
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:37,360
Speaker 7: They'll be made.

444
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 10: I mean, this trial is going to take probably months

445
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 10: to unfold. The government said they want a speedy trial,

446
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 10: and Trump's m in the past has been to drag

447
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 10: out these legal proceedings as long as he possibly can.

448
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 10: With procedural emotions. I can't say if we think that

449
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 10: she has a more favorable view of Trump's procedural emotions

450
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 10: or not. There's just a lot we don't know. In

451
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 10: the past, she has made some rulings that are favorable

452
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 10: to the former president, but you know, at this point

453
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 10: I would give her the benefit of the doubt, but

454
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:07,920
Speaker 10: her ability to fairly conduct a trial and fairly indict the.

455
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 7: President is going to be a key thing to watch

456
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 7: going forward.

457
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,919
Speaker 8: John just read the pull numbers in terms of Republican

458
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 8: candidates Republican voters who are likely to continue to keep

459
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 8: their support with the former president.

460
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 5: Are you surprised by that?

461
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,960
Speaker 8: Are you surprised by either how much of the proportion

462
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 8: of people are not going to change their opinion versus

463
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 8: those that are actually considering one way or another.

464
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 7: What this does.

465
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 10: Sadly, No, I mean, Donald Trump's been survived just being

466
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:41,159
Speaker 10: political flamethrowers that would have just absolutely scorched any other politician.

467
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:44,160
Speaker 7: Over the last eight years. And you know, you.

468
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,679
Speaker 10: Look at this relative to the Access Hollywood tape or

469
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 10: the fact that he just lost a civil suit for

470
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,880
Speaker 10: sexual assault. I mean, there are some really serious things

471
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 10: this guy has done that have not touched his approval

472
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 10: ratings at all among a really hardcore base of the

473
00:24:57,800 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 10: Republican Party.

474
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 7: And now he has the opportunity to.

475
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,399
Speaker 10: Say that the President of the United States is bringing

476
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 10: a political prosecution against him, and there's people like his

477
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 10: rival the Vick Ramaswami and other Republicans.

478
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:11,000
Speaker 7: Who are out defending him.

479
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 10: So I'm not remotely surprised that he's able to spin

480
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 10: this to his benefit. If I'm one of the Republican

481
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 10: challengers that's hoping to get into the news cycle.

482
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 7: Here.

483
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,920
Speaker 10: I'm hating this because this just gives Trump the opportunity

484
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 10: to be the number one storyline. All the questions you're

485
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 10: going to be asked are about President Trump, and this

486
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,560
Speaker 10: election is fundamentally going to be about his role in

487
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 10: the party and his role in the country because he's

488
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:36,639
Speaker 10: going to be so dominant going forward.

489
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 8: From an international perspective, I think about some of the

490
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 8: allies looking at the US right now and the fact

491
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 8: that this is going on, which is unprecedented, and the

492
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,880
Speaker 8: fact that there is such fiery rhetoric and potential threat

493
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 8: surrounding tomorrow's court hearing. What does that do to the

494
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 8: US relationship with its international friends.

495
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think the big challenge to the US right

496
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 10: now is that it looks a lot like some other

497
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,200
Speaker 10: countries that we criticize quite a bit.

498
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 7: In the past. And I think that.

499
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,399
Speaker 10: The great things the US is going for are the

500
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 10: strength of its institutions, and that includes both the courts

501
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 10: and law enforcement. So the fact that you have half

502
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:17,520
Speaker 10: the country believing that law enforcement has been fundamentally corrupted

503
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 10: and delegitimized, and that message is going to get out

504
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,679
Speaker 10: and resonate around the world. It really undermines faith and

505
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 10: belief in US institutions.

506
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 7: Not just domestically but globally.

507
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 10: And you know, that's a bit of a problem when

508
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 10: you look around the globe, but countries like El Salvador

509
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 10: or other places where you might start to see democratic

510
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 10: backsliding and the US doesn't really have the ability to

511
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 10: step in and criticize anymore.

512
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 7: And in some cases it's not even trying.

513
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 2: John, I wonder if it's something more specific as well.

514
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 2: If you're a US partner right now in the West

515
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 2: European country, the UK, for instance, so you questioning kind

516
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 2: of you share intelligence with the US if this is

517
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 2: what happens.

518
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,080
Speaker 7: I don't think there's a belief.

519
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:00,960
Speaker 10: I mean, you know Joe Biden, Yes, he had some

520
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 10: boxes in his garage. The National Archives found out about it,

521
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 10: they came to take him back.

522
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:07,920
Speaker 7: I think that Trump is a bit of a unique

523
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 7: figure here.

524
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 10: However, the US does have a broader problem with intelligence leaks.

525
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 7: I mean, you've got this National.

526
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 10: Guard, very young guy who was leaking these documents that

527
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 10: are now doing quite a bit of damage. So when

528
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,159
Speaker 10: it comes to the national security, the actual documented damage

529
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 10: to national security that we know about so far. The

530
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 10: Trump documents, while his actions were quite bad, don't come close.

531
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:31,679
Speaker 7: To some of these other cases.

532
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 10: And I don't know if this case in particular pushes

533
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 10: the allies away from the US over that issue.

534
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 2: Interesting, John, thanks to your perspective. Appreciate it, John Leabe,

535
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 2: the have you writed your group?

536
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 1: Right now we turn to traditional surveillance coverage. Ian Shepherdson

537
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:59,080
Speaker 1: joins his chief of con Pantheon Macroeconomics, and one of

538
00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 1: the great things about the Shepherds in purview is we

539
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 1: have to watch China. He and Duncan Wrigley have been

540
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 1: out front on this for years. You said years ago, Ian,

541
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 1: we have to pay attention to China. You people look

542
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,880
Speaker 1: at it every day. What's the consensus get wrong right

543
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 1: now about China.

544
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 11: Well, there's a couple of things, a couple of stories

545
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 11: that I think are really important. The first is that

546
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,919
Speaker 11: the rebound, the China rebound that everyone was so excited

547
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 11: about six months ago, has been a lot less impressive

548
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 11: than we all hoped, and that is generating the second point,

549
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 11: which is disinflation, deflation pressure coming from China. China's PPI

550
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:36,400
Speaker 11: inflation is negative, It's probably going to go more negative.

551
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 11: Excess productive capacity and just not enough demand is pushing

552
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,640
Speaker 11: down China's PPI, and that's going to push into global

553
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 11: manufactured goods prices. China is kind of the price set

554
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,040
Speaker 11: of for global manufactured goods, and that means downward pressure

555
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 11: pretty much everywhere over the whole of the next time.

556
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 1: They're going to export disinflation. I mentioned as Folks imb

557
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 1: Reservans Pritchard were a clinic on this and the Telegraph

558
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 1: the other day. How much is a percentage amount you

559
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 1: would calculate the Chinese the pulse of Chinese disinflation will

560
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 1: bring down US inflation.

561
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 11: Well, we're only talking about goods, of course, and remember

562
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 11: that the US Court CPI is mostly a service price index,

563
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 11: but at the margin downward pressure on goods prices, which

564
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 11: I think could be heading to a zero inflation rate

565
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 11: over the course of the next year in the US

566
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 11: and currently about four or five percent, so really quite substantial.

567
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 11: Now that's not all due to China. It's also due

568
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 11: to some recompression of US domestic margins. But the China

569
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 11: impulse I think is going to be very visible and

570
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 11: very helpful to the cause of lower US inflation and

571
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 11: Europe too over the course of the next year, and

572
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 11: starting pretty much right now.

573
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 8: Speaking to this inflation debate with China, there has also

574
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 8: been a shift away from China being the factor of

575
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 8: the world and an increase in lobbying power and frankly,

576
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 8: labor's power in general in the US in Europe as

577
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 8: a lot of the manufacturing gets near short or on short.

578
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 8: So how much do you see something of wage spiral

579
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:04,959
Speaker 8: continuing regardless of what happens with China, regardless of what

580
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 8: happens with headline GDP growth.

581
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 11: Yeah, you know, I think wage pressure is diminishing, but

582
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 11: it's still elevated. I mean, we're not seeing the sort

583
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 11: of numbers that we're seeing in twenty twenty one, when

584
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 11: US wage growth was six percent. It's more like four now,

585
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 11: depends exactly which measure you choose. But it's certainly had

586
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 11: some momentum that I think has lasted longer than a

587
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 11: lot of people me expected. But I do also think

588
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 11: that we're now on the verge of a meaningful weakening

589
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 11: in the labor market, including in manufacturing. And yeah, I

590
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 11: know that the reshoring is very much a thing. You

591
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 11: can see that very clearly in the US construction data

592
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 11: in manufacturing, but in the labor market it's starting to

593
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 11: struggle somewhat. You know, the ISM manufacturing survey, the benchmark

594
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 11: national survey is very weak, and it's been weak for

595
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 11: some time now. And that labor market softening, I think

596
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 11: is going to take some of the edge off the

597
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 11: wage growth over the next half a year.

598
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 8: What are you looking at to highlight this softening that

599
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 8: so many people thought would already have happened but hasn't yet.

600
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 11: Well, it's everywhere except the peril numbers, isn't it. I mean,

601
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 11: if we look at the the small Business survey from

602
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 11: the NFIB, that's at recession levels, the official index of

603
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 11: leading indicators deep recession levels, ISM manufacturing recession levels, payrolls

604
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 11: to fifty a month private payrolls. I mean, so there's

605
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 11: a real disconnect. So that can solve itself in two ways.

606
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 11: Either all the surveys can rebound magically, or payrolls can weaken,

607
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 11: which I think is much more likely. You know, the

608
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 11: FEDS raised rates by five hundred basis points in fifteen months,

609
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 11: and normally that would be more than enough to push

610
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 11: the economy into recession. I don't think this time will

611
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 11: be any different. We just got to wait a bit longer.

612
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 1: This time will be different. There was a Newcastle that

613
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 1: was mid you know, mid level Premier League, and they

614
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 1: had arguably the best year of anyone maybe except Man

615
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 1: City and your Newcastle Union. I mean they just surprise, surprise, surprise.

616
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 1: What's the newcastle out there that will keep this economy

617
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:49,720
Speaker 1: going well?

618
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 11: You know, the consumer is always a bit that has

619
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 11: the potential because there's still a lot of savings left

620
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 11: that were built up during the pandemic.

621
00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 1: The Biden stimialysis is still benefiting America.

622
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 11: Yeah, but there's about two thirds of that excess savings

623
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 11: has been spent now and what's left seems to be

624
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 11: mostly in the hands of higher income households who probably

625
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 11: are less likely to spend it. But it's an unknown

626
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 11: because we can't look back at any previous experience and say,

627
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 11: you know, the last time this happened, the outcome was x,

628
00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 11: because there is no last time.

629
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 1: But the unknown. The known is that everybody got the

630
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: recession called wrong except a very select few. Can you

631
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 1: time a recession right now? Or is this so original

632
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 1: you just give up?

633
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 11: Yeah, it's very difficult.

634
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 12: You know.

635
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 11: Plus, of course you've got to remember that the GDP

636
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 11: numbers get revised forever, so in real time it's very

637
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 11: hard to tell, which is why the FED puts so

638
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 11: much emphasis on the labor market. You know, they're very

639
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 11: keen on the PSALM rule. And umployment rises by half

640
00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 11: a point, you've got a recession. Whether GDP says so

641
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 11: or not. We're not there yet, but my guess is

642
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 11: that by the end of the summer will either be

643
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 11: there or will be very close.

644
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 8: Do you think that if the Fed does pause and

645
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 8: doesn't raise it again, we could get inflation down close

646
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 8: to three two and a half percent by the end

647
00:32:58,680 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 8: of this year.

648
00:32:59,240 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 1: Oh?

649
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 11: Absolutely absolutely. You know, the headline rate's going to drop

650
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 11: very sharply anyway in the next couple of months, just

651
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 11: because of basic effects from last year. But the core

652
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:08,719
Speaker 11: I also I think is likely to soften. I think

653
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 11: we're seeing them to see real margin compression across retailing

654
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 11: where we had huge expansions during the pandemic, and I

655
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 11: do think that the lad mark is going to weaken

656
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 11: as well. So I'm very hopeful that the FED has

657
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 11: done enough, and I think if they keep hiking they'll

658
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 11: have done more than enough, and the recession will end

659
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 11: up being deeper and longer than it needs to.

660
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 8: Be if we do get a headline CPI print tomorrow

661
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 8: that is above expectations. How do they justify and say

662
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 8: that they are still data dependent or is that a misnomer?

663
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 5: Are they not?

664
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 8: Really they just sort of feel on their way and

665
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 8: using that as an excuse.

666
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 11: Oh, they're definitely feeling their way. I mean that, you know,

667
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 11: they've been very clear that there's no grand plan here.

668
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 11: It's a cat to see what happens in the numbers.

669
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 11: But I think the tomorrow's pause has been fairly well flagged.

670
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 11: This is a feed that doesn't like to surprise, so

671
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 11: I'd be quite surprised unless the CPI numbers are just

672
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 11: absolutely wild, then not hiking this week.

673
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 5: But isn't it kind of silly?

674
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,479
Speaker 8: Isn't it silly that they're not just basically saying, we

675
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 8: need to assess what we've done, so we're going to

676
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 8: just take a breather and at a certain point we'll

677
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 8: signal when we're done, not this hawkish pause skip whatever

678
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 8: kind of confusion that leaves them with less credibility from

679
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:14,839
Speaker 8: a lot of people in the markets who say, don't

680
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 8: be too cute. We don't know either, We just want

681
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:17,880
Speaker 8: to see what's going on.

682
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 11: Yeah, no one knows for sure, because we're in a

683
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 11: completely unprecedented environment here. So having done five hundred basis

684
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:26,800
Speaker 11: points faster than any hiking cycles since Paul Vulgar in

685
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 11: the early eighties, why not take the summer off. Skip

686
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 11: skip June, skip July, go to the beach. Okay, let's

687
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:35,239
Speaker 11: talk there.

688
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 1: I mean you beautifully frame that. Back to Vulgar, some

689
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 1: would say they massively screwed up. Other would say they

690
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 1: just got us back. Dudley would say, they just got

691
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 1: us back to where we ought to be. But what's

692
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 1: the what's the downside? If they pause, pause, pause.

693
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 11: I don't see much because exactly there's not there's no

694
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,839
Speaker 11: sort of residual inflation pressure waiting to leap back if

695
00:34:56,840 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 11: they stop raising race for three months. But by back

696
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 11: to three months, we got a lot more data through

697
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 11: the summer. We have a much clearer idea in early

698
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 11: fall of the lagged impact of their cumulative actions, which

699
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 11: is what they keep writing about in the statement, but

700
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 11: don't seem to be taking very seriously with this reliance

701
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 11: on the short term data. So this is strong.

702
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:16,960
Speaker 1: Ke Lisa, I had the clearest memory of being at

703
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:21,719
Speaker 1: Aea in January of I'll say nine or ten. And

704
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:25,080
Speaker 1: I'm going to give credit to Olivia Blanchard. Worthies were

705
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:29,240
Speaker 1: up on stage and Blanchard had a chart up saying

706
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 1: there's there's no pain to just waiting for more information.

707
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 1: And that's where I am on this pause pause, you know,

708
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:40,839
Speaker 1: post post, post, post pause, whatever, you know. I just

709
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 1: I think he's dead on.

710
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 4: I agree in theory.

711
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 8: The problem is is that a lot of these FED

712
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 8: officials and a lot of economists are conditioned by getting

713
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 8: it so wrong back in twenty twenty and twenty twenty

714
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:56,799
Speaker 8: one and not moving quickly enough and not trying to

715
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 8: counter some of that stimulus. How much is that the

716
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 8: driving factor? It's going to perhaps push people in the

717
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:03,320
Speaker 8: opposite direction this time around.

718
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 11: Yeah, it skewed the decision, shall we say. I think

719
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 11: that's probably the right way to think about it. The

720
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 11: decisions which in previous FEDS might have been much closer.

721
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 11: They've gone on the hawkish side. And yeah, Transitory was

722
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 11: a complete fiasco, a debarcle. It was politically damaging to

723
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 11: the FED. The media hated it, the markets hated it,

724
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 11: politicians hated it. The FED was just the whipping boy

725
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 11: for everybody. So having made that mistake once, you can't

726
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 11: make the same mistake in the same direction again in

727
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 11: the same cycle. So you're gonna, you know, on the

728
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 11: other side. But again, I come back to this point.

729
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:35,319
Speaker 11: They've raised a five hundred basis points in fifteen months.

730
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 11: It's been super aggressive, and actually j Pal said at

731
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:41,239
Speaker 11: the last press conference, we're tight. Real rates now are

732
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 11: are tight, and you just got to wait for that

733
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 11: to work its way through. Everything will be so much

734
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 11: simpler if the peril numbers were behaving. But they're the outliers,

735
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:51,399
Speaker 11: but they're the ones at the markets and the FED

736
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 11: put the most emphasis on.

737
00:36:52,680 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 1: We're going to say goodbye to Ian Shepherdson and Pantheonmicroeconomics.

738
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:58,280
Speaker 1: I'm going to put the Serveno's quirk in my mouth.

739
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 1: Subscribe to The Bloombergs as podcast on Apple, Spotify and

740
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:06,800
Speaker 1: anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday

741
00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the

742
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:15,200
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

743
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 1: can watch us live on Bloomberg television and always on

744
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:23,319
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and

745
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:35,440
Speaker 1: this is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Now,

746
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 1: stay tuned for today's edition of Bloomberg Daybreak. It's your

747
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 1: daily news podcast, delivering today's top stories to your podcast

748
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 1: feed by six am Eastern. It's all the news you

749
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 1: need in just fifteen minutes. The Bloomberg Daybreak podcast. It

750
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 1: starts right now from.

751
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:58,280
Speaker 13: The Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak for Monday,

752
00:37:58,400 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 13: June twelfth.

753
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 14: Coming up today, political lines are drawn as Donald Trump

754
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 14: faces the first ever federal charges against a former president.

755
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 13: The Fed decision and a pair of inflation reports highlight

756
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 13: a busy week for the economy.

757
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:14,320
Speaker 14: Goldman Sachs says, this equity rally has room to run,

758
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 14: and UBS completes.

759
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 13: Its historic acquisition of Credit Suie.

760
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 15: The Man charge, and the choke old death of a

761
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 15: Manhattan subway writer is talking. Plus Ukraine's counteroffensive is officially underway.

762
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 15: I'm Michael Varr.

763
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 16: More ahead, I'm John stash Eward Sports. The Yankees lost

764
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 16: in tenements to the Red Sox. The Mets lost in Pittsburgh.

765
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 16: The Denver Nuggets can win the NBA Championship tonight.

766
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,800
Speaker 17: That's all straight Ahead on Bloomberg day Break, the business

767
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 17: news you need to starn your day in just one

768
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 17: fifteen minute podcast each morning on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg

769
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 17: Business app, and everywhere you get your podcasts.

770
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 13: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Amy Morris. Here

771
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:57,760
Speaker 13: are the stories we're following today.

772
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 14: The latest on Donald Trump. He is getting ready to

773
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 14: appear in federal court in Miami tomorrow to face the

774
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:07,360
Speaker 14: first ever federal charges against a former president. Trump was

775
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 14: defiant on the campaign trail over the weekend.

776
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 18: This vicious persecution is a travesty of justice.

777
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:18,800
Speaker 16: You're watching Joe Briden Jobe By think of it, Biden

778
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 16: is trying to.

779
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:24,799
Speaker 6: Jail his leading political opponent, an opponent that's beeding him

780
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:26,280
Speaker 6: by a lot in the polls.

781
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:30,280
Speaker 14: Former President Trump spoke at the Republican State Convention in Georgia,

782
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 14: where he remains under investigation over efforts to overturn the

783
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:34,400
Speaker 14: twenty twenty.

784
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 18: Election and Nathan.

785
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 13: In the face of the indictment, Donald Trump is still

786
00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:40,280
Speaker 13: finding support. It looks like his base is holding strong.

787
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 13: Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has that part of the story.

788
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 18: A couple of polls are out now. A CBS News

789
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 18: poll says three quarters of likely Republican primary voters view

790
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 18: the accusations as politically motivated and within the party. An

791
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:58,960
Speaker 18: ABC poll says his lead over Rohn Deacentus increasing at

792
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:01,879
Speaker 18: least ten points from April to after the indictment, now

793
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:05,880
Speaker 18: thirty plus point lead within the party. Meanwhile, there's concern

794
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:09,839
Speaker 18: about the potential of large crowds and possible violence in

795
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:13,760
Speaker 18: Miami tomorrow when Trump surrenders to authorities. Trump has addressed

796
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 18: supporters with see you in Miami Tuesday. In San Francisco,

797
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:20,800
Speaker 18: I'm at Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak.

798
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 1: All right, and thanks.

799
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 14: So the political lines are being drawn as the former

800
00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 14: president to waits his day in court. Republican Senator Lindsay

801
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 14: Graham is standing by the former president.

802
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:32,360
Speaker 19: Most Republicans believe we live in a country where Hillary

803
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 19: Clinton did very similar things and nothing happened to her.

804
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:38,960
Speaker 19: President Trump will have his day in court, but espionage

805
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:41,359
Speaker 19: charges are absolutely ridiculous.

806
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 11: What do you like Trump or not?

807
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:45,399
Speaker 19: He did not commit espionage.

808
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,520
Speaker 14: Senator Graham was on ABC's this week, but Trump's former

809
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 14: Attorney General Bill Barr tells Fox News Sunday there wouldn't

810
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 14: be any charges if the former president had handed the

811
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 14: documents over.

812
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 20: Those documents are among the most sensitive secrets that the

813
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:02,440
Speaker 20: country has no right to retain them in a way

814
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:05,240
Speaker 20: at maur Lago that anyone who really cares about national

815
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 20: security but their stomach would churn.

816
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:10,239
Speaker 14: And Republican New Hampshire Governor Chris Sanunu tell CBS has

817
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:13,399
Speaker 14: faced the nation this will inevitably affect the presidential race.

818
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:17,479
Speaker 21: He could win the nomination, but cannot mathematically cannot win

819
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 21: in November of twenty four, which is why the Republican

820
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 21: Party needs to look to another candidate, and they've got

821
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 21: a lot of great options before.

822
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:27,359
Speaker 14: Governor Sanunu thinks former President Trump will likely be found

823
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 14: guilty on at least one of the thirty seven charges

824
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:31,680
Speaker 14: he faces and.

825
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 13: Politics will play big this week. But it's also a

826
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,320
Speaker 13: busy few days for the markets. We get a policy

827
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,320
Speaker 13: decision from the Fed plus a slew of economic data

828
00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:42,440
Speaker 13: here with more is Bloomberg's Doug Prisner.

829
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:45,760
Speaker 22: Markets are expecting the Fed to pause its tightening cycle

830
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 22: and signal it's prepared to tighten in July. Here's Bloomberg

831
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 22: opinion columnist Mohammad Alarian.

832
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 23: The press conference is going to be absolutely the most

833
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 23: interesting element. How they described that the skip, which the

834
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:00,880
Speaker 23: market expects, is going to be critical. Now if they

835
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:05,480
Speaker 23: don't get favorable inflation numbers, they're in a really hard

836
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 23: situation because they will have to surprise the market before.

837
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:12,800
Speaker 22: The Fed decision. Markets will get two readings on US

838
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:17,360
Speaker 22: inflation CPI on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday, then on Thursday

839
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 22: US retail sales. Friday brings consumer sentiment data from the

840
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 22: University of Michigan in New York. I'm Doug Prisoner Bloomberg Daybreak.

841
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,440
Speaker 14: Thanks dougging against that economic backdrop, We're getting a bullish

842
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 14: call on stocks from Goldman Sachs this morning. We get

843
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 14: that story from Bloomberg's John Tucker, John and Nathan.

844
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 24: With the S and P five hundred now twenty percent above,

845
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:39,879
Speaker 24: it's October low, Goldman's strategist are comfortable raising their year

846
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 24: end target. They say the index will end twenty twenty

847
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 24: three at forty five hundred, and that would be a

848
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:48,879
Speaker 24: four point seven percent increase from Friday's close. They say, well,

849
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:51,439
Speaker 24: market breath has been a worry this current rally will

850
00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:55,239
Speaker 24: broaden out. Goldman's recession outlook is lower than consensus, while

851
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 24: their forecounts for S and P five hundred earnings is

852
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 24: higher than most on Wall Street.

853
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:00,719
Speaker 15: You knoww York.

854
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:02,480
Speaker 24: I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg day Break.

855
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 13: All right, thank you, John. In Europe this morning, we're

856
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:08,879
Speaker 13: learning UBS has completed its acquisition of Credit Suisse. Bloomberg's

857
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 13: Mary and after Meyer says the closing of that deal

858
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:15,239
Speaker 13: was announced in an open letter in local and international newspapers.

859
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 12: This huge merger has been a huge contention here locally

860
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:21,759
Speaker 12: in Switzerland, and they've had to do a lot of

861
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:24,759
Speaker 12: convincing of the population that this is a good thing

862
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 12: for Switzerland, and a lot of questions I've been asked

863
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:29,799
Speaker 12: around whether this is too big for Switzerland, whether the

864
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 12: government and the regulators will be able to handle such

865
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 12: a giant merger, and the implications for jobs branches. I mean,

866
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 12: it's a highly politicized thing here, so I think this

867
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:40,760
Speaker 12: was really geared towards them.

868
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 13: Bloomberg's Mary and hafter Meyer reminds us the tie up

869
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 13: between UBS and Credit Suisse is the biggest in banking

870
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:49,360
Speaker 13: since the two thousand and eight financial crisis.

871
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 14: And Amy there's more on today's official takeover. The Financial

872
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 14: Times is reporting UBS will impose strict restrictions on bankers

873
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 14: coming over from Credit Suisse. That reportedly includes a ban

874
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 14: on taking new clients from high risk countries.

875
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 18: Staying in Europe.

876
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 13: We're learning more about the fallout from assault and harrisment

877
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:09,160
Speaker 13: allegations against chrispin Ode. He's being removed from the firm's

878
00:44:09,200 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 13: partnership and it's naming new managers to take control of

879
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:15,279
Speaker 13: his funds. ODI's main hedge fund now will be run

880
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 13: by co manager Freddy Neve. According to The Financial Times,

881
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 13: the firm is also trying to contain the fallout by

882
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:24,840
Speaker 13: discussing restrictions on investor withdrawals from its EU funds.

883
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 14: Time out to take a look at some of the

884
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:33,120
Speaker 14: other stories making news in New York and around the world,

885
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 14: and for that we are joined by Bloombergs.

886
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 1: Michael bar Good morning, Michael.

887
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 15: Good morning, Nathan. There's late word former Italian Premier Silvio

888
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 15: Berlusconi has died. Berlusconi was admitted to a hospital in

889
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:46,480
Speaker 15: Milan late last week. Last month, he was released from

890
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:51,280
Speaker 15: a hospital for a lung infection. Silvio Berlusconi was eighty six.

891
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:56,160
Speaker 15: Ukraine said its forces liberated at least two villages in

892
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 15: the east of the country. It's part of its counter

893
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 15: offensive against Russia. North Korean leader Kim Joan un as

894
00:45:02,200 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 15: reiterated his support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Kim vowed

895
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 15: to hold hands firmly with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Daniel Penny,

896
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:14,640
Speaker 15: the marine facing manslaughter charges and the chokeold death of

897
00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 15: a homeless man on a Manhattan subway, is defending his actions.

898
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:22,279
Speaker 15: His attorneys released video statements which Penny says he was

899
00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 15: protecting himself and other passengers from an erratic Jordan Neely.

900
00:45:26,600 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 15: Penny says he acted because Neely was threatening passengers and

901
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:31,480
Speaker 15: it had nothing to do with race.

902
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:34,160
Speaker 6: I knew I had to act, and I acted in

903
00:45:34,200 --> 00:45:37,360
Speaker 6: a way that would protect the other passengers, protect myself,

904
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:38,800
Speaker 6: and protect mister Neely.

905
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:42,040
Speaker 15: The case is now before a grand jury in Manhattan.

906
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:45,760
Speaker 15: A section of a vital highway in the Northeast Corridor

907
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:49,480
Speaker 15: has been cut off after a massive tanker truck fire

908
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:53,799
Speaker 15: erupted underneath Interstate ninety five in Philadelphia, causing a part

909
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:57,160
Speaker 15: of the highway to collapse. Governor Josh Shapiro.

910
00:45:57,040 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 16: With regards to the complete rebuild of I ninety five roadway,

911
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 16: we expect that to take some number of months.

912
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:08,960
Speaker 15: Governor Shapiro says. Heavy machinery is now particulously removing tons

913
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:14,040
Speaker 15: of debris, careful not to reignite whatever fuel remains. Police

914
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 15: say a bus carrying wedding guests rolled over on a

915
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 15: foggy night in Australia's Wine Country, killing ten people and

916
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 15: injuring twenty five. New South Wales Police commissioner carrying a

917
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:26,960
Speaker 15: webb said the fifty eight year old driver has been

918
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 15: arrested and is being charged, but that it is still

919
00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:31,240
Speaker 15: not clear what caused the crash.

920
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,280
Speaker 2: The cause may not be known for some time.

921
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 15: It will require scientific examination and that takes time. Commissioner

922
00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 15: web Kimberly Akimbo won for Best New Musical at last

923
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 15: night's Tony Awards. Victoria Clark also won for Best Leading

924
00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:50,680
Speaker 15: Actress in the musical Meanwhile, history was made when Alex

925
00:46:50,800 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 15: Newall and Jay Harrison Ghee became the first non binary

926
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:58,120
Speaker 15: people to win Tony's for acting. Global News twenty four

927
00:46:58,120 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 15: hours a day, powered by more twenty seven hundred journalists

928
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 15: and analysts and over one hundred and twenty countries. I'm

929
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 15: Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg. Nathan.

930
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 14: Okay, Michael, thanks time now for the Bloomberg Sports updates.

931
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:16,399
Speaker 14: Branci like tri State outy, Good morning, johns stash out,

932
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:17,240
Speaker 14: Good morning, Nathan.

933
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:20,680
Speaker 16: First Yankees Red Sox series of the season at the Stadium,

934
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 16: Yanks lost three two on Friday, one three to one

935
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 16: Saturday last night that had a two to one lead

936
00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:28,440
Speaker 16: eighth inning. The Labor Tours air led to the Socks

937
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:30,720
Speaker 16: tye in the game, and Boston scored in the tenth

938
00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:33,640
Speaker 16: to win three to two. Only three Yankee hits in

939
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 16: the lineup that clearly misses Aaron Judge. Yanks lost four

940
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 16: of six on the home stand and they now start

941
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:42,400
Speaker 16: the first Subway series tomorrow night at City Field. The Mets,

942
00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:44,840
Speaker 16: with plenty of their own problems, losers of eight of

943
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:47,399
Speaker 16: the last nine, liked the Yanks. They had only three

944
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:49,239
Speaker 16: hits and a two to one loss in Pittsburgh. The

945
00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:52,480
Speaker 16: Mets have a record payroll of three hundred and forty

946
00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:55,040
Speaker 16: million dollars in yet right now only four teams in

947
00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:57,959
Speaker 16: the National League have a worse record. In Denver tonight,

948
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:00,799
Speaker 16: game five of the NBA Finals, Nuggets lead the They

949
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 16: did lose their last home game, but that was their

950
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 16: first loss at home since March, and they just won

951
00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 16: twice in Miami. In Paris, Novak Djokovic won the French

952
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:11,239
Speaker 16: Open finals straight sets over Casper Rude. So he's won

953
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:14,320
Speaker 16: twenty three Grand Slams, the most ever.

954
00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 8: Been very fortunate that you know, most of the matches

955
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 8: and tournaments I played in the last few years or

956
00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 8: there's history in the line, So I like the feeling.

957
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 7: It's a it's a privilege.

958
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:28,719
Speaker 11: It's incredible privilege to be able to make history of

959
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 11: the sport that I truly love and has given me

960
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 11: so much.

961
00:48:31,120 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 16: Jokovic is thirty six, hardly slowing down. He's won six

962
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 16: of his last eight Grand Slams. He's now won all

963
00:48:36,680 --> 00:48:39,360
Speaker 16: four at least three times. What a finish to the golf.

964
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:42,840
Speaker 16: In Toronto, Nick Taylor rolled in a seventy two foot

965
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 16: part on the fourth playoff whole, longest putt he's ever

966
00:48:46,239 --> 00:48:48,919
Speaker 16: made in fourteen years on the tour. He's the first

967
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:52,439
Speaker 16: Native Canadian to win the Canadian Open since nineteen fifty four.

968
00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 16: John stashedward Bloomberg sport.

969
00:48:57,280 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 25: From coast to coast, from New York to San Francis.

970
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:04,400
Speaker 25: Let's go Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias Exam

971
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:07,400
Speaker 25: the Bloomberg Business Appen Bloomberg dot Com.

972
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:09,440
Speaker 7: This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

973
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:11,000
Speaker 25: Good morning.

974
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:14,440
Speaker 14: I'm Nathan Hager. Donald Trump is remaining defiant and holding

975
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 14: onto his lead in the Republican primary race as he

976
00:49:17,560 --> 00:49:21,240
Speaker 14: prepares to enter a plea tomorrow in Miami federal court

977
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:24,640
Speaker 14: to the first ever federal criminal charges against the former

978
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:27,879
Speaker 14: president of the United States over his handling of classified

979
00:49:27,920 --> 00:49:31,160
Speaker 14: documents at Marlago. Ahead of that, we're joined by Bloomberg

980
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:34,240
Speaker 14: News Senior editor Bill Ferries. Bill, it's good to speak

981
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 14: with you this morning, and it has been just remarkable

982
00:49:36,760 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 14: over the course of former President Trump's career to see

983
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 14: him hold on to this base of support within the

984
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:47,200
Speaker 14: Republican Party and over the weekend back on the campaign trail.

985
00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:49,640
Speaker 14: What are you going to be watching for as we

986
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:52,240
Speaker 14: get ready for this appearance in Miami tomorrow.

987
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:56,600
Speaker 26: Well, thanks for having me, Nathan. I think on sort

988
00:49:56,600 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 26: of a more immediate front, we've already seen security getting

989
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:03,760
Speaker 26: beef up in Miami and there is some concern about

990
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:07,879
Speaker 26: whether the former president's supporters and whether his opponents will

991
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 26: be gathered there, uh and in what numbers, and whether

992
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:15,320
Speaker 26: things will remain peaceful. People on all sides of the debate,

993
00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:18,560
Speaker 26: whether they are supporters or opponents, have have called for

994
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:21,760
Speaker 26: peaceful gathering. But I think, you know, the January sixth

995
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:25,960
Speaker 26: violence at the Capitol in Washington overhangs all of these things,

996
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 26: and so there's always a degree of unpredictability, and then

997
00:50:30,080 --> 00:50:32,800
Speaker 26: I think will be you know, besides besides that, I

998
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 26: think we'll be looking for, you know, how the how

999
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:39,480
Speaker 26: the former president addresses the charges. He's already made it

1000
00:50:39,520 --> 00:50:42,440
Speaker 26: clear in his public comments over the weekend that he

1001
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:45,799
Speaker 26: thinks that he says he's innocent, that he's called it,

1002
00:50:46,120 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 26: he's called the charge of the travesty of justice. So

1003
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:51,280
Speaker 26: I don't think there's any doubt about how he'll plead,

1004
00:50:51,400 --> 00:50:53,239
Speaker 26: but I think there'll be a lot of interest in

1005
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:57,799
Speaker 26: whether he he speaks to his supporters or or the

1006
00:50:57,800 --> 00:50:59,880
Speaker 26: press on his way in or out of the courthouse,

1007
00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:04,839
Speaker 26: and then sort of what the timeline becomes as this

1008
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:08,640
Speaker 26: case moves forward in the coming months, which is exactly

1009
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:11,120
Speaker 26: when the president is expected to be or the former

1010
00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:13,800
Speaker 26: president expected to be ramping up his campaign for twenty

1011
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:14,319
Speaker 26: twenty four.

1012
00:51:14,719 --> 00:51:17,239
Speaker 14: The remarkable thing about this, as well, Bill, is that

1013
00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:20,400
Speaker 14: we have a precedent for how the president could act tomorrow,

1014
00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 14: because we've had the appearance in court just a couple

1015
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:27,400
Speaker 14: of months ago in the hush money case in Manhattan

1016
00:51:27,560 --> 00:51:31,680
Speaker 14: and some of the protests outside there as well. Does

1017
00:51:31,760 --> 00:51:33,920
Speaker 14: that inform what we could see this week?

1018
00:51:35,480 --> 00:51:39,719
Speaker 26: It's you know, I think it does. I think there's

1019
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:44,040
Speaker 26: a big question about the size of the support, though.

1020
00:51:44,080 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 26: I think when he's that previous case you mentioned up

1021
00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:50,680
Speaker 26: in New York was a little more hostile territory for

1022
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:54,960
Speaker 26: the president, South Florida is a little typically friendlier territory

1023
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:58,520
Speaker 26: for him, and you know, a place a lot of

1024
00:51:58,560 --> 00:52:01,840
Speaker 26: his supporters already live or will easily get to. So

1025
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:05,759
Speaker 26: I think he, you know, he's more on his home

1026
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:08,919
Speaker 26: turf and and may perhaps feel emboldened to to talk

1027
00:52:09,000 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 26: a little bit more and to share more of his

1028
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:14,480
Speaker 26: thoughts about where this is headed. You know, it's just

1029
00:52:14,480 --> 00:52:16,520
Speaker 26: just happening all a little bit south of the mar

1030
00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 26: A Lago resort, where these documents that he's charged with

1031
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 26: mishandling and keeping from investigators were all stored.

1032
00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:29,160
Speaker 14: How do you see this affecting the presidential race going forward,

1033
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:33,280
Speaker 14: given that there's a possibility that we might not see

1034
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 14: a trial wrap up potentially until after the presidential race

1035
00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:38,359
Speaker 14: is over.

1036
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:42,359
Speaker 26: Yeah, we've we've never seen anything like this in US

1037
00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:45,800
Speaker 26: politics before the first federal charges against the former president,

1038
00:52:45,840 --> 00:52:50,000
Speaker 26: but much less, you know, someone who's actively running for

1039
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:53,960
Speaker 26: president again. How it You know, there's there's always two

1040
00:52:53,960 --> 00:52:58,000
Speaker 26: elections in any presidential racers the primary race and then

1041
00:52:58,040 --> 00:53:01,480
Speaker 26: there's the general elections. So in the primary race, the

1042
00:53:01,520 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 26: president is still in a commanding position. He has, you know,

1043
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 26: somewhere over a third of Republican primary voters or a

1044
00:53:10,120 --> 00:53:13,840
Speaker 26: gap of more than about thirty percent over his nearest opponents,

1045
00:53:14,719 --> 00:53:17,960
Speaker 26: and that that kind of support seems to be holding.

1046
00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:21,640
Speaker 26: From the polls we've seen the quick polls over the weekend,

1047
00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:26,480
Speaker 26: a large number of Republicans believe or are concerned that

1048
00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:32,000
Speaker 26: these charges are politically motivated, even you know, we're talking

1049
00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:35,279
Speaker 26: about something like almost sixty percent of republicancy. It's that way.

1050
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:38,560
Speaker 26: Those are you know, those are the voters Trump has

1051
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:41,920
Speaker 26: to be thinking about heading into a primary, and if

1052
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:44,040
Speaker 26: he can sort of keep them on his side, he

1053
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:47,680
Speaker 26: very well could be in the position of winning primaries,

1054
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 26: facing charges, and being a leading candidate for president in

1055
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:55,560
Speaker 26: twenty twenty four. It's not it's a scenario I don't

1056
00:53:55,560 --> 00:53:59,000
Speaker 26: think anyone would have foretold just even a year or

1057
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 26: two ago.

1058
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 27: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the

1059
00:54:04,520 --> 00:54:07,960
Speaker 27: stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond.

1060
00:54:08,320 --> 00:54:11,320
Speaker 13: Look for us on your podcast feed by six am

1061
00:54:11,440 --> 00:54:12,640
Speaker 13: Eastern each morning.

1062
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:15,520
Speaker 27: You can also listen live each morning starting at five

1063
00:54:15,600 --> 00:54:18,239
Speaker 27: am Wall Street Time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero

1064
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:21,680
Speaker 27: in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine one in Washington, Bloomberg

1065
00:54:21,719 --> 00:54:24,760
Speaker 27: one oh sixty one in Boston, and Bloomberg ninety sixty

1066
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:25,799
Speaker 27: in San Francisco.

1067
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:29,920
Speaker 13: Our flagship New York station is also available on your

1068
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:31,680
Speaker 13: Amazon Alexa devices.

1069
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:34,640
Speaker 27: Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app,

1070
00:54:34,719 --> 00:54:38,560
Speaker 27: Serius XM Channel one nineteen, the iHeartRadio app, and on

1071
00:54:38,640 --> 00:54:41,279
Speaker 27: Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager and.

1072
00:54:41,280 --> 00:54:44,960
Speaker 13: I'm Amy Morris. Join us again tomorrow morning for all

1073
00:54:45,000 --> 00:54:47,759
Speaker 13: the news you need to start your day right here

1074
00:54:47,840 --> 00:55:02,279
Speaker 13: on Bloomberg Daybreak.