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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Pot all right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen cuny twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five,

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Speaker 1: fifty and the.

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Speaker 2: Kicks block the college football world stundus, Oh my goodness,

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Speaker 2: he stumbled, and football the lateral turn the.

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Speaker 1: Counter on the job.

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Speaker 2: Don't you believe I'm not gonna tap them up the

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Speaker 2: field to night. It's not the size of the dog

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Speaker 2: in the fight. It's the size of the fight in

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Speaker 2: the dog.

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Speaker 1: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 1: on Campus Podcast. This is the Week six college football

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Speaker 1: betting preview. I'm stucky and joining me as always my

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Speaker 1: fellowboc Coast Colin Wilson. Slates are getting better. Colin, it's

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Speaker 1: for me. Turn the page out of rough September. It's

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Speaker 1: time to finish the season strong, ready to start on

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Speaker 1: Saturday fifty today we're recording this. I was like, fifty

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Speaker 1: five days of football begin What a time to be alive.

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Speaker 1: My goal don't know this actually happens to have a

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Speaker 1: bet on all fifty five days, So we'll see if

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Speaker 1: it happens. How's it going, brother, It's going great?

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Speaker 2: Big weekend. Got my tickets in hand, ready to take

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Speaker 2: the family down to see some Tennessee Arkansas. You and

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Speaker 2: I talked about it in July, we talked about it

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Speaker 2: in August. We're going to talk about it again today.

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Speaker 2: What is this Tennessee secondary? I think that's going to

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Speaker 2: be a highlight of the show later on.

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Speaker 1: Yep, we'll break that game down in full hobby. Let's

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Speaker 1: dive right into it with our marquee matchups, got four

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Speaker 1: of them. It's another fabulous weekend of college football.

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Speaker 2: Let's check out the marquee matchups. We'll all end up

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Speaker 2: betting for Week six.

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Speaker 1: Missouri at Texas A and M. Hardest game on the boardatt,

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Speaker 1: I have no clue. Honestly, I could make a case

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Speaker 1: for either side. TEXTA. I'm two and a half point

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Speaker 1: favorite of total forty and a half. Missouri coming off

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Speaker 1: of bye. We talked about this last year. Kirby More,

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Speaker 1: Missouri's offensive coordinator, held back some stuff early. Do you

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Speaker 1: see a better offensive output so far? It's been underwhelming

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Speaker 1: to date. Texas A and M is Connor weakman. Is

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Speaker 1: he going to play at quarterback? I think Marcel Reed

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Speaker 1: is a better fit for Colin Klein's RPO heavy scheme,

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Speaker 1: but it's not like A and M has been super impressive.

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Speaker 1: They probably should have lost Darkansas. They think they were outplayed,

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Speaker 1: got some gifts from the Hogs. Arguably you're lost the

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Speaker 1: Bowling Green at home. That game was pretty even. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean this game is extremely tough for me to handicap.

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Speaker 1: I'll be rooting for text A and M have some

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Speaker 1: upside futures on the Ags, and it's also worth mentioning Missouri.

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Speaker 1: It's first they are coming off of buy but it's

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Speaker 1: their first road game of the year, not an easy

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Speaker 1: place to play, so we'll see how that impacts them.

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Speaker 1: I do think the Missouri defense has holes. They lost

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Speaker 1: a lot from that defense last year. Ten Texas A

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Speaker 1: and M take advantage over the top remains to be seen.

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Speaker 1: Do you have a strong take on this game?

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Speaker 2: I do. I have a money down on Texas A

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Speaker 2: and M. I would still at the current market, I

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Speaker 2: make this two and a half on Texas A and M.

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Speaker 2: But I would still take the money line because things could.

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Speaker 2: I could see this being an overtime game. What led

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Speaker 2: me to Texa, A and M. There's just more holes

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Speaker 2: with Missouri that I can't seem to find answers for

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Speaker 2: So let's talk about a couple of those. Now, the

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Speaker 2: Texas A and M defense, They produced ten tackles for

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Speaker 2: loss and eight quarterback hurries against Arkansas. They are extremely

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Speaker 2: havoc minded their top fifteen and stuff right and in

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Speaker 2: lineyards against run defenses too. And then on the offensive

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Speaker 2: side of the ball, and Marcell Reid is behind an

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Speaker 2: offensive line that is third and havoc allowed. So Texas

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Speaker 2: A and M is not making that number is increasing

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Speaker 2: every week. They just are not making mistakes. Marcel Reid

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Speaker 2: is not getting touched, and teams are not tackling and

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Speaker 2: behind the line of scrimmage. So tex A and M

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Speaker 2: is playing clean on both sides of the ball. I

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Speaker 2: will say, if Wigman does plays game time decision here,

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Speaker 2: that might suit beating Missouri better. So I don't really

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Speaker 2: have a strong opinion who throws at quarterback here. I

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Speaker 2: think both play. There's a path for a weakman here

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Speaker 2: against this Missouri.

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Speaker 1: I think Weagman might give him a better chance to

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Speaker 1: beat Missouri. Nowtfield, I just don't know if Wegman is

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Speaker 1: I call him Weagman or Wegman depending. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if he's any good. This is tricky for me. I

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Speaker 1: hope you cast your bet because I'll be rooting for

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Speaker 1: the Aggies.

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Speaker 2: So Missouri is one hundred and twenty ninth in pass

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Speaker 2: explosives on offense. That number shocks me. On the offensive

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Speaker 2: side of the ball, they're not producing a lot out

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Speaker 2: of their passing game.

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Speaker 1: They've been playing it close to the best. That's my

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Speaker 1: only pushback there.

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Speaker 2: And so what you do is you go and look

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Speaker 2: at like who's Brady Cook targeting? Like his is protection

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Speaker 2: just not there? What's going on? The biggest thing I

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Speaker 2: can find is what is going on with Luther Burton.

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Speaker 2: Luther Burton's target share last year on that insane Missouri

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Speaker 2: team was thirty four percent. This year he's drawing seventeen

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Speaker 2: point eight percent of all the targets. Is this premeditated?

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Speaker 2: Is this on purpose? Did we decide against Vanderbilt we're

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Speaker 2: not going to use Luther Burton? Because you see when

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Speaker 2: this counch time against Vanderbilt and BC, Luther Burton starts

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Speaker 2: getting looks. This Texas A and M game, Luther Burton

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Speaker 2: needs to be a huge part of it. Brady Cook

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Speaker 2: completed just three passes over twenty yards so far this year,

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Speaker 2: he's had one turnover worthy play. It's just a very

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Speaker 2: vanilla offense and I don't know if that's by design

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Speaker 2: and Missouri offense. They struggle where Texas A and M's

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Speaker 2: defense can be attacked. And that's why I lean with

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Speaker 2: Texas A and M. Because they have a low pass epa.

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Speaker 2: They're not creating explosive Cook is only three or fourteen

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Speaker 2: on passes twenty yards and the loss of Cody Schrader,

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Speaker 2: I think is not being talked about enough. We hammered

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Speaker 2: Texas preseason, like, what are your red zone options now

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Speaker 2: that you've lost rough Shawn Johnson, you lost b John Robinson,

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Speaker 2: you can't score anything down on the goal line. Well,

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Speaker 2: Missouri's having that same problem right now. Missouri's outside the

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Speaker 2: top fifty in red zone TD rate and they're finishing

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Speaker 2: drives are outside the top fifty. So for a number

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Speaker 2: of reasons on both sides of the ball, I don't

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Speaker 2: care who Texas A and M starts. I think they

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Speaker 2: both have a big chance to win. I think this

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Speaker 2: Texas A and M defense is going to put a

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Speaker 2: lot of pressure on Brady Cook. I think Missouri is

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Speaker 2: having struggles at the goal line because Cody Schrader isn't there,

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Speaker 2: and this Luther Burdon target share thing. If this doesn't

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Speaker 2: go from seventeen percent back up to thirty four percent,

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Speaker 2: we can officially start talking about how Luther Burdon must

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Speaker 2: be hurt because I don't know what's going on with

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Speaker 2: Missouri offense.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it should be an interesting one in college station.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on to Iowa out Ohio State. Ohio State

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Speaker 1: slightly under a twenty point favorite here total sitting at

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Speaker 1: forty five and a half. Ohio State, it should be noted,

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Speaker 1: has Oregon on deck Ohio State obviously dominant roster. Has

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Speaker 1: it been as dominant as what twenty five million or

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Speaker 1: whatever they spent? No, not my opinion. I just want

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Speaker 1: to say, you guys keep talking about a twenty million

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Speaker 1: dollars roster.

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Speaker 2: If you don't play the right guys, you'd be sht

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Speaker 2: out of luck.

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Speaker 1: You know, the right side of the offensive line, the

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Speaker 1: tight end position, the defensive line hasn't dominated given the

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Speaker 1: caliber of competition. Go back to Michigan State, they you know,

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Speaker 1: three drives inside of the Ohio State twenty last week.

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Speaker 1: They didn't score. The offense has been good they got

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Speaker 1: talented weapons all over, but you know, the competition has

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Speaker 1: not been great. We've seen this with other Big Ten

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Speaker 1: teams in the past. It's like a two game schedule,

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Speaker 1: right like their most important games they are going to

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Speaker 1: be Penn State obviously always Michigan, but they're going to

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Speaker 1: be a massive favor in that game. So Penn State

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Speaker 1: and at Oregon next week. Is Chip Kelly holding everything

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Speaker 1: close to the best and it's like, hey, let's not

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Speaker 1: show anything. There's no reason to which leads me to

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Speaker 1: an underhear. I was the new overteam. They've gone over

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Speaker 1: every week. You know, this total sin of forty five

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Speaker 1: and a half, So there's I think there's many paths

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Speaker 1: for this to come in under. Iowa's defense has had

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Speaker 1: some holes this year. It's not been as dominant, but

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Speaker 1: I trust Bill Parker to clean up some things during

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Speaker 1: the bye week. Iowa. I just look, I don't see

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Speaker 1: Iowa being able to do anything offensively, so I want

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Speaker 1: to stay. Just load the box. You gotta stop Kale Johnson.

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Speaker 1: He's been amazing. He's averaging eight and a half yards

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Speaker 1: per carry, and then you can man up everywhere else.

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Speaker 1: And I don't see Iowa having success offensively. I trust

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Speaker 1: the Iowa defense and I just don't think Ohio State

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Speaker 1: wants to show much. I like the under, hear how

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Speaker 1: about you?

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Speaker 2: I like the over. You can get out the board

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Speaker 2: and Marcus.

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Speaker 1: All right, So I only mention this in three and

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Speaker 1: now we have a new board all about accountability here

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Speaker 1: and just add a fun element to the podcast. I

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Speaker 1: bought a whiteboard. We have a list will track the

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Speaker 1: games that we agree on, the games that we're going

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Speaker 1: on had to head and then we could use it

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Speaker 1: on the recap episode on Sunday. Don't forget about the

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Speaker 1: boy smails nine to five nine bad beat, and keep

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Speaker 1: track of it all year long. Be a fun element.

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Speaker 1: One of our listeners kind of gave me this idea

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Speaker 1: with a tweet, So, all right, make your case for

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Speaker 1: Iowa Ohio State over.

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Speaker 2: I think the handicap on whether you're going over or under,

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Speaker 2: and it probably pertains to the side as well. But

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Speaker 2: I make this game nineteen, so I haven't played the side.

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Speaker 2: I think where you're going to handicap this is Can

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Speaker 2: the Iowa running backs do some damage? And right now

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Speaker 2: you know they're scoring you know what, thirty one points

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Speaker 2: at least in three or four games. They average fifteen

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Speaker 2: last year, so it's been a huge boost to get

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Speaker 2: Tim Lester in as your offensive coordinator. And then you

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Speaker 2: look at some of what some of these running backs

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Speaker 2: have done. Kamari Moulton, Jazun Patterson, they're both over three

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Speaker 2: point six yards after first contact. But Caleb Johnson is

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Speaker 2: the workforce here, eight point four yards after eight poor

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Speaker 2: four yards per carry, creating thirty missed tackles in eighty

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Speaker 2: two rushing attempts. To describe how insane that is, pff.

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Speaker 2: This one stack category called elusiveness. Of all the running

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Speaker 2: backs in the nation, Caleb is top five nationally and

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Speaker 2: elusiveness which basically looks at your yards after contact and

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Speaker 2: how many mistackles you created. This is an elite running back.

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Speaker 2: And you think, well, it's Iowa football. They have an

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Speaker 2: offensive line. It makes all these holes. No, not true. Actually,

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Speaker 2: the Iowa offensive line is not really plowing and creating

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Speaker 2: big holes. There's sixty fifth in lineyards. That is an

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Speaker 2: offensive line stat. They are sixty sixth in offensive stuff, right,

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Speaker 2: that's an offensive line stat. So what that tells me

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Speaker 2: is what Caleb Johnson is doing is all highlight yards

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Speaker 2: And the definition of that, if you want to look

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Speaker 2: it up, is what belongs to the running back. It

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Speaker 2: all belongs to the running back to Caleb Johnson here.

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Speaker 2: So I think you know, between Caleb Johnson doing that,

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Speaker 2: you look over on the Ohio State side, that defensive

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Speaker 2: front is getting beat. They're only forty fifth in line

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Speaker 2: yards and they're forty third tackling. How does Ohio State

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Speaker 2: have a strength of schedule of one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 2: third and you look at some of these teams they're

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Speaker 2: playing and they're forty third tackling. Well, let's go a

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Speaker 2: little bit. They missed eleven tackles last week against Michigan State.

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Speaker 2: They missed twelve tackles against Akron Football in Week one.

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Speaker 2: Ohio State is not buttoned up from a tackling perspective.

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Speaker 2: Their defensive front is getting beat by opposing offensive lines.

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Speaker 2: And Caleb Johnson is doing a hell of a lot

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Speaker 2: of work. It's not his offensive line, it's him. He's

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Speaker 2: that good. So I'm going to take the over here

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Speaker 2: because I think I think I was going to break

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Speaker 2: a couple, And what I should say is, I think

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Speaker 2: Caleb Johnson's going to break a couple.

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Speaker 1: All right head to head there, let's get the prime

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Speaker 1: time Michigan Washington. I love Washington here. I just had

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Speaker 1: this shoved in my face. Michigan just got hit. Was

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Speaker 1: it a service release? It was when there's a service release,

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Speaker 1: when a big group hits a bet, you know there's

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Speaker 1: still ideally hitting fifty five to sixty percent doesn't to

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Speaker 1: understand where and why the market moves is does have

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Speaker 1: value because it's not like an injury or anything, and

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Speaker 1: moving from two and a half, you know, down to

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Speaker 1: one isn't the biggest move. But I like Washington here.

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Speaker 1: I don't think this Michigan team is any good. They

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Speaker 1: can't throw the ball. They literally cannot throw the ball.

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Speaker 1: They threw it for thirty yards against USC. They threw

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Speaker 1: it for what sixty or seventy against Minnesota. Yes, they

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Speaker 1: beat USC, but that's when they made the change to Orgy.

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Speaker 1: They had a late touchdown drive to win that game.

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Speaker 1: There was an element of surprise there.

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Speaker 2: We need to think outside of the box.

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Speaker 1: Orgy, Minnesota saw what Michigan wanted to do. Minnesota just

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Speaker 1: got gashed by Iowa the week before. Michigan got shut

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Speaker 1: down in the run game against Minnesota. I mean they

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Speaker 1: Michigan's out gained in that game. I think what to

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Speaker 1: ninety to two forty something in that range. It's a

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Speaker 1: completely one dimensional offense. Steve Belichick, I think has a

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Speaker 1: pretty good idea of how to stop a one dimensional offense.

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Speaker 1: Blow the box. The Washington pass defense has been better

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Speaker 1: than the run defense, and on the other side of

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Speaker 1: the ball, Washington's offense has been balanced. It's been good.

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Speaker 1: If you look them under the hood, the underlying metrics

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Speaker 1: are great. Bill Rodgers has command of this offense. They're

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Speaker 1: running it well. They have two really good weapons on

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Speaker 1: the outside in Jackson and Boston. They just shot themselves

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Speaker 1: in the foot. What do they have? A million penalties

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Speaker 1: against Washington State that game ends on the goaling ninety

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Speaker 1: seven percent postgame win expectancy. Against Rutgers, they have missed

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Speaker 1: three field goals. They you know, red zone woes have

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Speaker 1: also been an issue for the offense. They even had

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Speaker 1: a blocked field goal, but a guy ran onto the

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Speaker 1: field and then it cost them seven a ten point

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Speaker 1: swing right there. They've been extremely unlucky. But I think

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Speaker 1: this team is much better than I had anticipated, and

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Speaker 1: I think Michigan is much worse on the margins. I'm

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Speaker 1: word That's how I would make the case for Michigan,

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Speaker 1: in that the special teams are a mess right now.

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Speaker 1: For Washington, Michigan's very good. So like kicking in a

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Speaker 1: low scoring game, and then can Washington clean up its

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Speaker 1: penalties and execute better in the red zone. Those are

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Speaker 1: the three things I'm looking for. But I think that

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Speaker 1: this line should be three plus. I think Washington is

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Speaker 1: a better team right now, Michigan's first rode game, traveling

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Speaker 1: out West prime time. I'm a big jetfish guy. I

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Speaker 1: like Washington here. Screw the market.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't hurt to go against the market. Sometimes I

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Speaker 2: like Washington too. I'm in agreeance with you. I do

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Speaker 2: like the under until on the board. Yeah, I put

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Speaker 2: it on the board. I'm gonna be at Washington. I

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Speaker 2: was really kind of waiting for a cheap money line,

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Speaker 2: and I you know, sometimes you got to thank some

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Speaker 2: of those service releases for giving you the number that

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Speaker 2: you've been waiting on all week. Listen, Michigan's not going

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Speaker 2: to pass in this game. We talked about it, and

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Speaker 2: even if they did have some sort of passing game,

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Speaker 2: they wouldn't they wouldn't be able to execute it here

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Speaker 2: because Washington is number one in the nation defensive passing

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Speaker 2: success rate. Steve Belichick is just they're just tearing passing

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Speaker 2: offenses down. And we know what Alex Orgy is gonna do.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna run that heavy rush offense with Chloe Mullings.

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Speaker 2: They're gonna run inside zone man in power. That's the

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Speaker 2: three run concepts. But they're really into inside zone a

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Speaker 2: good old fashion to or gee. And if you go

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Speaker 2: and dump out what Washington has done on a defensive

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Speaker 2: side from a rushing perspective and run concepts, They've seen

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Speaker 2: more inside zone than anything else against their current competition

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Speaker 2: that they played this year, the Huskies posted a sixty

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Speaker 2: percent success rate against inside zone. That is very good.

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Speaker 2: The opponents are averaging nearly a negative half point EPA

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Speaker 2: per attempts running inside zone against the Washington defense. It's

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Speaker 2: it's just not going to work for Michigan here. Washington's

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Speaker 2: been good at doing this all year. It's what I

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Speaker 2: believe Sports Info Solutions calls a bust play. Well, every

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Speaker 2: time you run inside zone against Washington, it's a bus play.

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Speaker 2: So if Michigan gets down to scoring position, they think

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Speaker 2: they can run inside zone, it's not going to work.

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Speaker 1: Penalties. Got to clean up the penalties.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and Will Rodgers has ten touchdowns, no interceptions, seven

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Speaker 2: big time throws only two times.

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Speaker 1: Got a ton of experience in big games too.

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Speaker 2: And I mentioned that Caleb Johnson is in that top

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Speaker 2: five of most elusive running backs in the nation. Well,

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Speaker 2: number two in the nation is Jonah Coleman. For Washington.

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Speaker 2: The points are going to show up on the board

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Speaker 2: at some point for Washington this season. It'll click offensively.

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Speaker 2: Right now, the one this unit that's clicking is the defense,

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Speaker 2: and that's bad news for a Michigan team that relies

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Speaker 2: so heavy on inside zone.

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Speaker 1: So we're in agree. Stare last Marky game Miami at

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Speaker 1: cal I like Cal anything over ten California on the surface,

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Speaker 1: good spot for Cal. Miami traveling across country after an

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Speaker 1: emotional win over Tech on the last play of the game.

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Speaker 1: Crazy game. The bye week for cal I think is

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Speaker 1: super important, more important for Cal than many other teams

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Speaker 1: who haven't early season by because they were one of

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Speaker 1: the most impressive wins by the way of this year

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Speaker 1: is Cal winning at Auburn. They were down hordes of

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Speaker 1: starters in that game. And they went in as near

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Speaker 1: two touchdown underdogs and won that game outright. But they

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Speaker 1: had so many injuries this week. They should be healthier.

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Speaker 1: There's a chance they get both of their transfer receivers

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Speaker 1: or of one of their two back Not sure on that,

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Speaker 1: but you know they got a transfer from Ohio State

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Speaker 1: and a transfer from Notre Dame, who haven't played yet

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Speaker 1: this year. Should be healthier at running back. Their best

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Speaker 1: offensive linemen got Cardop against Florida State. He's going to play.

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Speaker 1: They're getting their nickelback back, which is important in this matchup.

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Speaker 1: He's missed the past three games. His team is just

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Speaker 1: ravaged by injury. So the bye came at a perfect time.

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Speaker 1: And this Miami team, they're good, look, but they're erratic,

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Speaker 1: undisciplined penalties cam Ward. Maybe we get just the pristine

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Speaker 1: cam Ward in Miami roles so be it, but he

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Speaker 1: can be erratic. We saw that against Virginia Tech and

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Speaker 1: there Miami's data points haven't aged well, and then va Tech.

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Speaker 1: Vo Tech's looked lost all year until they play Miami,

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Speaker 1: and then va Tech all of a sudden looks competent.

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Speaker 1: So you know, I do worry about the cal offensive

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Speaker 1: line here, but I was worried about the offensive line

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Speaker 1: for vaw Tech too. Will Cox very good in this

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Speaker 1: spot as an underdog, but he you know, he's good

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Speaker 1: at taking away exposed to plays, uglying up the game.

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Speaker 1: I think Cal will be healthier. It's in a good

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Speaker 1: spot game Day and Berkeley for the first time. And

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Speaker 1: for what it's worth, Wilcox fifteen and seven against the

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Speaker 1: spread as a double digit underdog, sixty eight point two percent,

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Speaker 1: covering by over a touchdown per game. I like Cal

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Speaker 1: over over ten.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I like how too. I power rate this eight

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Speaker 2: and a half, So I think it's got a little

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Speaker 2: room to buy and even you know, get to ten

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Speaker 2: and still buy it. But you know, I just can't

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Speaker 2: get over what Miami. We knew at some point the

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Speaker 2: cam Ward that we all in case you didn't see

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Speaker 2: him before this year, we knew he was going to

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Speaker 2: pop his hea up sometime and that definitely showed up

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Speaker 2: against Virginia Tech. Cam Ward was pressured on half of

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Speaker 2: his forty eight dropbacks. He went eight of twenty one

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Speaker 2: passing when he had a crowded pocket. Cal corner Noel

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Speaker 2: Williams is one of the best in the nation. He's

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Speaker 2: already picked off four passes in this game. So if

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Speaker 2: you can find a prop on Williams to pick something off,

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Speaker 2: that would definitely be the path here. When you talk

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Speaker 2: about a havoc in this Miami offense. Now, you know,

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Speaker 2: Crystal Ball mentioned in his presser this week that Miami

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Speaker 2: is still plagued with missed assignments, missed blocks, mis tackles.

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Speaker 2: They're still playing very sloppy football, which is kind of

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Speaker 2: scary because when they look good, they looked like they

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Speaker 2: could contend in the College Football playoff. But according to

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Speaker 2: Christal Ball, they're still missing a lot of They're making

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Speaker 2: a lot of mistakes. Defensive coordinator Lance Gidry's d they've

389
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Speaker 2: struggled with outside zone and power so far this season.

390
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Speaker 2: That's something that Cal's going to run here. Cal hasn't

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Speaker 2: been a highly successful rushing unit, but they can be

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Speaker 2: explosive at times. But this is a huge, massive game

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Speaker 2: for Fernando Mendoza, the quarterback for Cal. He went to

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Speaker 2: Columbus High School, thirteen minutes from the campus of the

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Speaker 2: Miami Hurricanes. And when you know at Crystal Ball and

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Speaker 2: Mendoza's dad played high school football together, So this is

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Speaker 2: kind of an emotional game for Cal's quarterback. He's definitely

398
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Speaker 2: going to show everything that he has. He has been

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Speaker 2: killer in passing downs, top thirty five success rate in

400
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Speaker 2: passing downs for Cal. His turnover worthy play rate right

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Speaker 2: now at Francisco, he's a Mendoza is having a fantastic season.

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Speaker 2: Turnover worthy play rate is less than two percent on

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Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty two dropbacks. His home run hitter

404
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Speaker 2: wide out is Naziah Hunter. Has four tds on the

405
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Speaker 2: season two point five yards per route run. And you

406
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Speaker 2: know that's probably what it's going to get Cal to

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Speaker 2: get some scores on the board. To get this cover.

408
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Speaker 2: The Cal defense has actually dismantled opponent drives. Bears have

409
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Speaker 2: allowed just seven possessions to get into the red zone.

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Speaker 2: That's it. Great spot, so late at night, couldn't be

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Speaker 2: better for the Bears. Let's get berserkly, be a little

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Speaker 2: bit crazy here. We'll see what can happen. But I

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Speaker 2: like Cal put her on the board. Agreeance on Cal.

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Speaker 2: I don't sleep. I like getting that Matthew little John

415
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Speaker 2: back in the slot for Cal. He got hurt in

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Speaker 2: the opener against UC Davis hasn't played since. He'll be

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Speaker 2: back this week. That's huge because who are you playing against?

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Speaker 2: Xavier Rostreppo, one of the best slot receivers in all

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Speaker 2: of college football. I like the Bears too. All right,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the rundown. Navy Air Force.

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Speaker 1: Oh boy, I got some tweets when this came in

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Speaker 1: on the app. You bet the over Service Academy unders

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Speaker 1: you're probably gonna hear. But that's forty six, ten and

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Speaker 1: one run right now. I actually don't mind this one.

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Speaker 1: Navy's offense is just different. It's explosive. It's not your

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Speaker 1: just standard never being more aggressive, it's not your standard

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Speaker 1: triple option. I mean, air Force is just redful. I

428
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Speaker 1: mean they let Wyoming big. Wyoming's offense came to life

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Speaker 1: against them. The thing I would worry about is just

430
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Speaker 1: this air Force gets shut down maybe once this game too.

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Speaker 1: I mean they're nine to a half point favorite. Air

432
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 1: Force during COVID like took advantage of a rule to

433
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:35,160
Speaker 1: you know, since their seniors could all come back. Navy didn't.

434
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,159
Speaker 1: There's been a big fuss made about that. I think

435
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 1: Navy wants this game. I would only be worried about

436
00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 1: air Force scoring. But do you like the over here?

437
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 1: I do like the over.

438
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 2: And if you go and look up what are the

439
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:48,359
Speaker 2: key numbers for totals in this range? Thirty seven is it?

440
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,359
Speaker 2: So as you and I are podcasting here, thirty seven

441
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,120
Speaker 2: is where it's at. So I still like the over

442
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:54,280
Speaker 2: in this Now listen five to the last six iterations

443
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:56,880
Speaker 2: of this series that was played at the Air Force

444
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 2: Academy had forty two points or more. I mean, there

445
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 2: can points scored here in elevation. Whenever Navy comes and

446
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,399
Speaker 2: when you get a quarterback like Blake Quarterbath, who's like

447
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 2: a Keenan Reynolds magician with what the Navy offense is,

448
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 2: you're gonna get a lot of points up on the

449
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:12,879
Speaker 2: board fast. And you don't really have to explain how

450
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 2: Navy's gonna score here. Running back Alex Texa, their fullback

451
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:21,600
Speaker 2: Daba Fafana running the offense. It's the triple option, with

452
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 2: the spread option, the Delaware wing tea. There's all kinds

453
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 2: of good things here to make them be one of

454
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,680
Speaker 2: the most explosive offenses in the nation. They're number one

455
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,399
Speaker 2: in havoc allowed. They make zero mistakes, No one tackles

456
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:34,239
Speaker 2: them behind the line of scrimmage, and of course they

457
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 2: don't throw interceptions because they don't usually pass much. When

458
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 2: they do, they're extremely explosive. Air Force outside the top

459
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 2: fifty against the rush. I just don't think that we

460
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 2: have to go through a whole explanation about how Navy's

461
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 2: going to move the ball and Navy's going to score

462
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:48,439
Speaker 2: on the other side of the ball. Is where I

463
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 2: was like, well, should I take Navy like over twenty

464
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:52,719
Speaker 2: three and a half team total or should I kind

465
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,360
Speaker 2: of let this ride. Air Force needs to get ten

466
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 2: points up on the board here. Rushing success rate lineyards

467
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,440
Speaker 2: have been pretty horrible for them and their trip option,

468
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 2: but there was improvement against Wyoming. I know, I don't

469
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,959
Speaker 2: we talked about Wyoming, but you know, air Force offensively,

470
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 2: they did get their success rate and forty four rushing

471
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 2: attempts up to fifty two percent, that is, I believe,

472
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 2: eight percent above national average, the average five point one

473
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 2: yards per carry. That is getting back to the full

474
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:19,359
Speaker 2: back dive and the triple option that we know of

475
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:21,919
Speaker 2: from air Force and the Navy defense has struggled in

476
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 2: defensive stuff, right they're ninety third defensively in third downs. Also,

477
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 2: there is a path for air Force to run full

478
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 2: back dive three yards cloud of dust and convert on

479
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 2: third downs and get ten points up here, so I

480
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 2: like the over. Uh, don't even need to explain Navy

481
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:37,639
Speaker 2: getting points because it's been insane lately.

482
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,920
Speaker 1: SMU Louisville. Louisville floating six and a half, seven point favorites,

483
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,359
Speaker 1: look su I think figured some things out during the

484
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:50,439
Speaker 1: bye week, made the change to quarterback Just Jennings, and

485
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 1: their offense has been on fire the past two weeks.

486
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 1: Louisville still tough for me to crack. They do have

487
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 1: a big coaching advantage here. I would lean Louisville, but

488
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,360
Speaker 1: they should have probably lost the Georgia Tech at home

489
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 1: but won and covered. And they probably should have beaten

490
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 1: Notre Dame but lost and then maybe didn't cover depending

491
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 1: on the number you got. They're still a bit of

492
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 1: an enigma to me. I lean Louisville at six and

493
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 1: a half.

494
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:16,239
Speaker 2: Any thoughts there, well, for all of us that are

495
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 2: sitting on SMU team, I'm sorry win totals from beginning

496
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,239
Speaker 2: of the season. You have to have this one. They

497
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 2: lost one they shouldn't have. You have to have this one.

498
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 2: And what you're banking on is that Louisville has been

499
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 2: so bad in coverage grading and you're hoping the Jennings

500
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 2: and that SMU offense can take advantage. So if you

501
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 2: have a win total like I do, just sit back

502
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 2: and let's get this one.

503
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 1: Ole Miss at South Carolina an interesting game here. A

504
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 1: lot of injury concerns like Trey Harris popped up, Yes, questionable.

505
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 1: Are Sanders and Sellers going to be healthy? I had

506
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 1: South Carolina circled for this spot, but you know now

507
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 1: the line's at nine because Ole Miss lost. The Kentucky

508
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 1: value kind of sucked out there. But in South lookd

509
00:24:54,960 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 1: ole Miss defense is legit, especially against the run. Can

510
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:04,400
Speaker 1: but can South Carolina duplicate Kentucky's game plan? They want

511
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 1: to run the ball and they control the clock. And

512
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,360
Speaker 1: then on the other side, can their defense and their

513
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:13,440
Speaker 1: defensive line, which is right up there with Kentucky's. Can

514
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 1: they cause havoc in stop the run and then cause

515
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 1: havoc on Jackson Dart just like Kentucky did. Kentucky did

516
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 1: that by dropping everyone back into zones. That's probably what

517
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,160
Speaker 1: South Carolina is going to do here. And the weakness

518
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 1: on ole Miss town on that offensive line, can South

519
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 1: kinda find any path to offense. Here is the question,

520
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:39,199
Speaker 1: and where's Olemiss that mentally after that lost? So they

521
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:43,880
Speaker 1: bounced back and rally is Lane Kiff and he hasn't

522
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 1: I don't think he's tweeted this week. Maybe he's focused.

523
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 1: I think South kind is a sneaky shot to win

524
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,640
Speaker 1: this game, but it's just it's not the best. There's

525
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 1: just no value in the number after Ole miss loss

526
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 1: last week. Thoughts.

527
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:56,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, the under is something that I wanted. When I

528
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 2: got up to the key of fifty five, it got

529
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,400
Speaker 2: to fifty four founders stints back down to fifty three

530
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 2: and a half. I'll be looking for some sort of

531
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 2: steam up to that fifty five, mostly on the part

532
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 2: of South Carolina. I'm not saying that they can't do

533
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 2: some damage and maybe give a little shock here to

534
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 2: the system. I definitely make the spread a little bit

535
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:15,640
Speaker 2: lower than what the market is and saying South Carolina

536
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:17,679
Speaker 2: can cover. But I cannot get over the fact that

537
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,880
Speaker 2: this is an RPO offense led by Lenora Sellers, who

538
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,159
Speaker 2: I believe is going to play with Rahiem Sanders, who

539
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 2: I believe is going to play and old Missus defense

540
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:30,360
Speaker 2: can cook against RPO quarterbacks against RPO offenses. The defense

541
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 2: plays on the Old Miss offense. I'm a little I'm

542
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 2: a little sketch on so far, but the fact that

543
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 2: Ole Miss is second in defensive HAVOC and South Carolina

544
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 2: is one hundred and thirty second in offensive HAVOC allowed.

545
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, their offensive line is problem. Yeah.

546
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 2: I under is where. I don't think Old Miss is

547
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 2: going to be putting up any fifty burgers for forty

548
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,679
Speaker 2: sandwiches or thirty salads here. But I definitely would look

549
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 2: the under West.

550
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 1: Virginia at Oklahoma State. I like Mountaineers. It feels like

551
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,240
Speaker 1: I'm selling low, which I don't like on Oak State

552
00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 1: after two losses, but this is a good spot for

553
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,479
Speaker 1: Svirginia coming off of a bye. They're going to get

554
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 1: a bit healthier. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, I mean, just two

555
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 1: devastating losses. They got trucked by Kansas State on the

556
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,639
Speaker 1: field the entire game against Utah lose to you know,

557
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 1: and that loss looks so much worse after we saw

558
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 1: Utah go down to Arizona. Oklahoma States would probably be

559
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:18,880
Speaker 1: without their two best defensive players. They can't stop the run,

560
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 1: and what's West Virginia gonna do. They're gonna run the ball.

561
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,879
Speaker 1: So look, I Okahoma State should have success through the

562
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 1: air if you get the good Allen Bowman against the

563
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 1: West Virginia secondary. But this is like last team with

564
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,680
Speaker 1: the ball wins. I'll happily take over a field goal

565
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:37,360
Speaker 1: here with West Virginia.

566
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 2: And he thought that one hundred percent of West Virginia

567
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,360
Speaker 2: will be in the round robin this week. Where can

568
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 2: you hurt West Virginia through the air? Is Alan Bowman

569
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:50,120
Speaker 2: still playing quarterback? No, he should be dusting his resume off.

570
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 2: He should be walking into corporate offices and trying to

571
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 2: find a job. So and when you look at the

572
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 2: other side, you're right, Wes Virginia should be able to

573
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:57,879
Speaker 2: run all day. So West Virginia will be in all

574
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,880
Speaker 2: of my round robin, parlay round robins this week. Hey,

575
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 2: form and tackle. It's mountain their crime to the heart.

576
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 1: Plead no doubt tonight, No doubt. Rutgers Nebraska. I initially

577
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 1: liked Rutgers under seven. I bought back because of the wind.

578
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 1: This wind forecast in Lincoln. Let's look at the updated weather. Yeah,

579
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 1: twenty mile an hour sustained wins.

580
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 2: Nebraska Honestly, it's not for everyone.

581
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 1: But if that's the case, I like the other year

582
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 1: that's my favorite bet in this game. Both teams are

583
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 1: gonna be slow, run heavy. Rutgers run. He's been a mess,

584
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 1: but you can load the box here and if I

585
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 1: Tech did that against Rutgers, shut down the run. They

586
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 1: were able to hit some passes over top, but I

587
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna be able to do that here

588
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 1: in these conditions, both to slow tempo, grinding clock. Both

589
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 1: coaches have talked about field position, and they've both been

590
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 1: good in field position battles this year. I think both

591
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 1: are gonna call it conservative right to their nature, Like

592
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 1: fourth and one, your midfield, they're gonna punt. You just

593
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 1: got to hope for no turnovers and then maybe a

594
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 1: couple four down stops because Nebraska's kicking loose. I doubt

595
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 1: they're gonna try field goals here if it is as

596
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 1: windy as it looks. So I like the under.

597
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I projected this like forty eight, and so when

598
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 2: the total came out earlier in the week, I'm like, eh,

599
00:29:14,920 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 2: pass the win comes in and gets knocked down. I

600
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 2: think the best you can do here because you know

601
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 2: Ruggers is going to be ultra conservative. They have been

602
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 2: every single week and it actually almost costs them at

603
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 2: the end of games. But that's the way they're going

604
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 2: to play, and I think Nebraska is going to do

605
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 2: the same thing. The best thing you can do is

606
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 2: hopefully there's a score within the first five to eight

607
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 2: minutes and maybe that pushes it up over key numbers

608
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 2: of forty one forty five. If it does, that's when

609
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 2: you can take your under. But that's what I'll be

610
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 2: looking to.

611
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 1: Do another under that. I like Baylor Iowa State. The

612
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 1: Baylor offense is bad, like really bad. Right, it's another

613
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 1: win game. It's gonna be win. They can't run it.

614
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 1: You're not gonna be able to throw it in Iowa State.

615
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:58,479
Speaker 1: And Baylor's defense is their strongest unit. Do a good

616
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 1: job of preventing explosive This profiles as a grinder to me.

617
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 1: I like the under names, disagree.

618
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 2: I haven't made a play on this, and it's because

619
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,120
Speaker 2: what Baylor did last week. I was kind of confused

620
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:14,040
Speaker 2: how they made that comeback. So if you're you know,

621
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 2: it's sort of a Georgia Bama thing. How is it

622
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 2: against BYU that you can get down so fast and

623
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 2: then all you know, you can come back thirty point

624
00:30:20,240 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 2: deficit towards the end of the game. And I think

625
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:24,640
Speaker 2: that's kind of a trend about what's going on with

626
00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 2: Baylor here. But BYU absolutely stopped playing offense. I think

627
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 2: this is an undergame all the way, especially with the

628
00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,239
Speaker 2: way Iowa States playing defense and the fact that they

629
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 2: needed a couple of explosive plays to cover that number

630
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 2: last week. Like it was not a good offensive performance

631
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 2: for Iowa State last week.

632
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 1: Here's a favorite I liked. I think Georgia Tech Drill's

633
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 1: duke coming off of by Duke five and oh look

634
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 1: at their wins. I mean a miracle against Northwestern. They

635
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 1: played Middle Tennessee. They get like five gifted touchdowns. Be

636
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 1: in too. The Tennessee's down eight starters. Last week, they're

637
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 1: down twenty to nothing. North Carolina have to come back.

638
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,959
Speaker 1: They can't run the ball. I don't trust I just

639
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 1: don't trust Malik Murphy to consistently beat this Georgia Tech secondary.

640
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 1: And by the way that Georgia Tech and I think,

641
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 1: I think Buster Faulkham have a good game plan off

642
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 1: of buye use the duke and Manny Diaz's defensive aggression

643
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 1: against him with misdirection. That Georgia Tech game and Louisville

644
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 1: aged better, and again they should have won. After what

645
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 1: Louisville looked like against Notre Dame, I think Georgia Tech

646
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: lays it and beats down on the Blue Devils. Do

647
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 1: Greer disagree?

648
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, Georgia Tech's going to be able to put down

649
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 2: some rush explosives on the ground. That's not where Duke excels.

650
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 2: Duke excels and stopping big passes.

651
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 1: But they look at who they play too. You gotta remember,

652
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 1: I mean like their number, they played Middle Tennessee, they

653
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 1: played and I think they played Elon. They played Northwestern

654
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:44,479
Speaker 1: in a wind windstorm. So like a lot of their

655
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,480
Speaker 1: defense matches are good and many Dida's defense, they're gonna

656
00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 1: have to havoc. Yeah, but their schedule has been a

657
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 1: joke and they could easily be three and two and

658
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 1: this line would be north of double digits.

659
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 2: The one thing I'd be cautious about in this game,

660
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 2: if you're thinking about an under Duke has been fastest

661
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 2: year twenty three seconds per play, and if they want

662
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 2: to go up tempo and do that against Haines King

663
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 2: and the Storgia Tech offense. I don't think it's going

664
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 2: to work out for them, but it could put points

665
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 2: up on the board pretty fast. Yep.

666
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:10,120
Speaker 1: By the way, reminder, make sure you check out the

667
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 1: group of five guys and their episode going through the

668
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 1: biggest group of five games and the ones that they like.

669
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 1: It's time for some trash.

670
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 2: The trash man pick of the league.

671
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 1: I'm the trash man.

672
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 2: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it,

673
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 2: totally unreliable, undependable it that's it.

674
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 1: You've been told off. How do you like that?

675
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 3: Good?

676
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 1: All right, it's get to the trash. I'm also going

677
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 1: to track the trash starting now each week, only two

678
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 1: this week. You told me if you're reat bandy against Alabama,

679
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 1: prefer twenty four year but twenty three ish? Still okay, smaller,

680
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 1: I'm back on president of the Papia Clubeah, what did

681
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 1: I say all year? I'm going to back Vandy as

682
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 1: a huge dog. They're a service academy and Alabama there

683
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 1: it's human nature. They just had a sixty minute thriller

684
00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 1: against Georgia. Now you travel to Vandy. Yeah, at this

685
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 1: flat city? Why do I like this. I mean, first of all,

686
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 1: on the Service good spot, Clark Lee came out. You

687
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:10,960
Speaker 1: know what he said. He wants this game to be

688
00:33:11,200 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: under ten possessions total. We know that in time Vannibile

689
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 1: football will be the best program in the country. So

690
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 1: Vandy wants to slow this game down, just like a

691
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 1: service academy. Service Academy catching twenty four And look, we've

692
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 1: seen Dandy the only bets I've won this year on

693
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 1: Vandy games. They should have won at Missouri's twenty one

694
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:34,239
Speaker 1: point dogs. Should they beat Votec's fourteen point dogs. And

695
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 1: just like a service guy, and they lost this double

696
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 1: digit favorite to Georgia State. Last year, Pavia went into Auburn.

697
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 1: And so this offense, I think the staff will have

698
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 1: some wrinkles. This Bama secondary is still vulnerable to some

699
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 1: shop plays. Hit a couple exposives shortened the game down

700
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:54,719
Speaker 1: to a crawl. Bama potentially flat after that game. I

701
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 1: like Dandy.

702
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 2: I'm going to pass on the side, but I am

703
00:33:58,200 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 2: going to say, got to get our first half unders

704
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,080
Speaker 2: in here. So it's already turning down. So I think

705
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 2: if you can get twenty seven to twenty seven half

706
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 2: in the first half.

707
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 1: That's good if Sandy's going to be trying for you.

708
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:08,719
Speaker 1: They want this game to be under ten possessions. I

709
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:11,359
Speaker 1: like the first half under only two tracks. The other one.

710
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 1: I don't know where you're at on this one. I

711
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 1: think you have a bet on it. You owe Monroe

712
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 1: against JMU catching seventeen again, another team that just wants

713
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 1: to slow the game down. Crawl to a crawl, run

714
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 1: the ball, go extremely slow. This has got to be

715
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 1: the top of the market on JMU. JMU. Also, every

716
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 1: team they play is turning it over a billion times

717
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 1: a game, which is kind of inflated. I mean, their

718
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:36,720
Speaker 1: offense has been great, Barnett's been great the past two games,

719
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 1: but this is probably the top of the market on

720
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 1: UL Monroe. Maybe you get more Ourmenta than General Booty

721
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 1: or Menta gave them a spark. This is too high.

722
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:49,799
Speaker 2: You ow Monroe Warhawks, but you're you're giving JMU shit

723
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 2: because they've scored one hundred and thirty three points. They

724
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 2: cashed in every time they get the ball there. They

725
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 2: score a lot of points. I know I'm not going

726
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:58,399
Speaker 2: to join you put me down on the board. I'm

727
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,239
Speaker 2: not doing that. I'm not fading JMU. Nope, nope, not

728
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 2: going to do it.

729
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:03,359
Speaker 1: You want to go ahead to add or now you're

730
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 1: just not I'm.

731
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:05,799
Speaker 2: Just not gonna play. But I mean, if you want

732
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:07,880
Speaker 2: to go, oh boy, this is rough because I like

733
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 2: you LM.

734
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 1: Two okay, well, then just a fast for you. All right,

735
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 1: let's go nowhere fast. You are about to.

736
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:21,160
Speaker 3: Enter a world unlike any you've ever seen before where

737
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,439
Speaker 3: the beautiful, the brutal, and the.

738
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:24,760
Speaker 2: Brave all need.

739
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 1: San Diego State they're totals. You've gotten everyone right so far. Yeah,

740
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 1: hosting Hawaii over or under under.

741
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:52,399
Speaker 2: Hawaii is a pass happy team and they're running shoot.

742
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 2: We know that with Timmy Chang. That's the greatest part

743
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 2: of the San Diego State defense so far. Their fifteenth

744
00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 2: and coverage grading. You go to the other side of

745
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:00,879
Speaker 2: the ball, we know the ass want to have their

746
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 2: Aztec fast heavy tendencies run on the ground. The problem

747
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:06,759
Speaker 2: is is Hawaii is seventh in defensive HAVOC and they're

748
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,359
Speaker 2: twenty seventh in the nation and tackles for loss. They

749
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 2: are behind every single offensive line they play, including when

750
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 2: they played UCLA. Then there's some scoring issues here for

751
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 2: San Diego State. They're one hundred and thirty first in

752
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 2: offensive finishing drives. They only had two point five points

753
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 2: per scoring attempt. So let's go under. I believe I

754
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 2: made this like forty. I protect the number at forty six,

755
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:26,359
Speaker 2: so we got room to go here.

756
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:30,399
Speaker 1: My gut says over, but not enough to make a play. Yeah,

757
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 1: you've been hot on these, but we agreed on most.

758
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:34,359
Speaker 1: When I discribed you in the week one, you were right,

759
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:38,240
Speaker 1: So unders the call. All right? And then finally Colin

760
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:41,080
Speaker 1: talking hoggs Arkansas, Tennessee a big one in prime time

761
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 1: Tennessee thirteen and a half point favorite. Here to add,

762
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 1: do what it off how awful I was in September.

763
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 1: I was betting on the Tennessee Titans and fading the

764
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 1: Tennessee volunteers. That sums up by September. I like Arkansas. Yeah,

765
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 1: but I have no no credibility when it comes to

766
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:02,280
Speaker 1: talking Tennessee. But I have to just trust my process

767
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:04,240
Speaker 1: in numbers, I'd make this like eleven and a half,

768
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:08,359
Speaker 1: so I want fourteen. I will say that I just

769
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 1: have to go back. Look, I was wrong on Tennessee

770
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:14,720
Speaker 1: twice this year, but they haven't faced a single offense

771
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:16,640
Speaker 1: that can either throw the ball or run the ball.

772
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 1: I mean, Kent State is by far the worst rushing

773
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:22,720
Speaker 1: team in the country. This will actually provide a test

774
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 1: because you have guys like Jacunin Jackson in the backfield,

775
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:28,960
Speaker 1: Andrew Armstrong at wide receiver, Taylor Green at quarterback. And

776
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 1: why is Taylor Green important here? Because you did see

777
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:33,479
Speaker 1: Oklahoma start to move the ball once they bench Jackson

778
00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:35,400
Speaker 1: Donald with a mobile quarterback. His legs will be important

779
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 1: because the Tennessee defensive line is legit. I think Arkansas

780
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,359
Speaker 1: can have some success running the ball a bit here.

781
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 1: Not many people will will say that if you look

782
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 1: at the metrics, but no team that they've played has

783
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 1: been able to run the ball at all. Arkansall's rushing

784
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 1: offense has been good this year, and we have yet

785
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 1: to see this. Tennessee secondary test to Sam Pitman is

786
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 1: a dog like he's just a god. We need to

787
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 1: be tough, consistent.

788
00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:00,880
Speaker 2: Our focus is to embrace the hog with pride.

789
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:02,960
Speaker 1: He's twenty one and eight against the spread as a underdog,

790
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 1: covered by over four points per game, three to zero

791
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 1: this year, nine and three against the spread as a

792
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 1: double digit dog. I like Arkansas, but I'm an idiot.

793
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 1: I mean in general, but especially when it comes to Tennessee.

794
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:15,400
Speaker 1: So I'm sure Tennessee will roll, but I think fourteen's

795
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 1: too much. The only thing that scares me is Taylor

796
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:20,839
Speaker 1: Green is so erratic and so inaccurate. But I think

797
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 1: two touchdowns is too much. Whoo pick suy absolute dumpster fine,

798
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:27,399
Speaker 1: dumpster fine.

799
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:28,759
Speaker 2: I don't know how we win a game the rest

800
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 2: of the year. Just blow a program up, give us

801
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:36,360
Speaker 2: a death sentence. Collins talking razorback football. I think my

802
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 2: favorite bet all that we talked about outside of three

803
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:40,800
Speaker 2: and out is going to be Arkansas plus seven and

804
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:42,759
Speaker 2: a half of the first half. There's sevens out there too,

805
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:43,280
Speaker 2: that's fine.

806
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:47,120
Speaker 1: One can go wrong against Josh Rifle, the most successful

807
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 1: against the spread first half coach in nc DOUAA history.

808
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 2: Right, what could go wrong? I mean, you know there

809
00:38:54,480 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 2: was a Mike Leach would always talk about how his

810
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:58,919
Speaker 2: timing offense would get out of sync whenever they took

811
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 2: time off. So it's kind of interesting to see Josh

812
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:03,960
Speaker 2: Hype will do this when a big part of the

813
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 2: Tennessee offense the spread stretch. The stretch spread is based

814
00:39:08,080 --> 00:39:09,879
Speaker 2: on timing, so we'll see if they've got it. Coming

815
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:12,719
Speaker 2: into this game, but this will be the first time

816
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 2: the Tennessee secondary is tested after facing the passing offenses

817
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:21,439
Speaker 2: of UT Chattanooga, NC State which is a dumpster fire,

818
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 2: Kent State, and Oklahoma who pulled Jackson Arnold and decided

819
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 2: the refreshman Michael Hawkins Junior in there with zero weapons,

820
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 2: zero wide receivers, nothing. So we're looking at the Tennessee

821
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 2: secondary that we talked about in the preseason in our

822
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:42,320
Speaker 2: SEC preview podcasts completely wiped at every position, corner safety

823
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,440
Speaker 2: in the too deep not just starters, too deeper Gone

824
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:49,280
Speaker 2: Arkansas is a highly volatile offense that relies on rushing

825
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 2: success rate and then explosive passing plays, and that's just

826
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 2: what Bobby Petrino's offense has been so far this year.

827
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 2: There's this expectation, I think the Tennessee's defensive line is

828
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 2: absolutely going to dominate the art offensive line. That may

829
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 2: be true from a number's perspective. This Tennessee defensive line

830
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 2: has done a lot of work and it looks like

831
00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 2: they're going to create a lot of havoc here. And

832
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 2: if jaquinnin Jackson is not able to establish the run

833
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,279
Speaker 2: which he has against everybody, else, every other defensive line

834
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 2: he's gone up against. If he can't keep the hogs

835
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:18,840
Speaker 2: and standard downs, That's where I think this handicap plays

836
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 2: into Arkansas's favor because the great equalizer in this game

837
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 2: is Taylor Green. Play action, moving pockets, bootlegs, naked bootlegs, rollouts,

838
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 2: deep passing from out on the sidelines. That's what Taylor

839
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 2: Green does. He's running more than he ever has in

840
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 2: his entire career through Boise State and Tennessee struggled with

841
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 2: Michael Hawkins, particularly when he left the pocket to connect

842
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:42,320
Speaker 2: on passes. Taylor Green is up to sixty four rushing

843
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 2: attempts this season. He has over four hundred yards on

844
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:48,840
Speaker 2: the ground, evenly split between designed yards, between design calls

845
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 2: and scramble yards. And the reason why I say first

846
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 2: half and not second half, there could be some holes

847
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 2: in the Arkansas secondary. I expect there are. They've had

848
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 2: they've been beat up in safety. It's been inefficient in safety,

849
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:01,239
Speaker 2: the corner has been find the safety has been bad.

850
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 2: I expect Josh Hypel and Tennessee to regroup at halftime,

851
00:41:04,960 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 2: find out where they're going to attack, put some points

852
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 2: up on the board. But hey, Bobby Petrino's offenses have

853
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:14,320
Speaker 2: completely flamed out in the second half. What they score

854
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:16,880
Speaker 2: three points against Texas A and M in the second half,

855
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State deflated in the fourth quarter, couldn't win it

856
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:24,040
Speaker 2: in overtime. Like these offenses of Arkansas are doing. Are

857
00:41:24,080 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 2: just beating the world in the first half. They're getting dombed.

858
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:29,799
Speaker 2: They're getting completely shut down after adjustments have been made.

859
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:32,719
Speaker 2: So point distribution for Arkansas, they're averaging more than twenty

860
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 2: two points in the first half, only thirteen point six

861
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 2: in the second half. I'll take Arkansas plus seven and

862
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 2: a half, and I wouldn't. I might have a couple

863
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:43,120
Speaker 2: tickets a week, and that has Arkansas on the money

864
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 2: line in the first half. So I do think they're

865
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 2: going to give them a challenge early. I think the

866
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 2: adjustments probably end up doing Arkansas in as far as

867
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 2: winning this game, and hopefully they keep it within fourteen.

868
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:56,239
Speaker 1: All right, So on the board we had to add

869
00:41:56,239 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 1: to Oregon State, Colorado state. You like Oregon State, the

870
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:01,839
Speaker 1: Ohio state where I like the under in Colorado State,

871
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 1: Agree Houston TCU under Washington money line cal aying over ten,

872
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:10,960
Speaker 1: and then we'll do a split of Arkansas first half

873
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 1: full game? Agree there?

874
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:13,320
Speaker 2: Agree?

875
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:18,880
Speaker 1: All right? Before we get out here, let's go three now.

876
00:42:18,120 --> 00:42:20,280
Speaker 2: Let's make it a quick three and out.

877
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 1: All right, let's dive into it on first down with

878
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 1: some Friday night lights.

879
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:28,840
Speaker 2: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

880
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 1: Let's go play some football, seven pm Easter on CBS

881
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:35,759
Speaker 1: Sports that Work. I don't think maybe you have a

882
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 1: hot take on this, but Jacksonville State sixteen and a

883
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 1: half point favorite at Kennesas State. Kansas State is beyond

884
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:48,400
Speaker 1: dreadful with a loss at home to UT Martin. This

885
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 1: team is a mess total, sitting at forty eight and

886
00:42:51,719 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 1: a half, I have nothing here. What do you got?

887
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:55,920
Speaker 2: You can't make a case for Kennesall State when they

888
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:58,479
Speaker 2: lose the UT Martin and plus that score was twenty

889
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:00,200
Speaker 2: four to ten going into the fourth quarter. I mean

890
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 2: the Skyhawks dominated them. The number here just I don't know,

891
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 2: Like these teams go on these slides and you can't

892
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:08,239
Speaker 2: keep up with their number, and then you try to

893
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:10,000
Speaker 2: justify maybe now is the time to jump in on

894
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:12,839
Speaker 2: these crappy teams. I mean, I make this game ten.

895
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 2: We're up to sixteen, and I really can't see any

896
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:17,879
Speaker 2: resistance to this number. The most troubling aspect that came

897
00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 2: out of that box score from Kennesaw State and UT

898
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:23,919
Speaker 2: Martin is the fact that Kennesaw was thirty five percent

899
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,280
Speaker 2: success rate in standard downs. They were in passing downs

900
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 2: the entire day, nearly twenty percent less than national average.

901
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 2: I ever, two point nine two point nine yards on

902
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:35,759
Speaker 2: standard downs. That's against the UT Martin defense and their

903
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 2: quarterback Davis Bryson. He has one hundred and five dropbacks

904
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 2: so far, zero big time throws, five turnover worthy plays.

905
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:44,759
Speaker 2: So you're gonna expect a lot of tempo out of

906
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 2: Jacksonville State here. They're coming off a bye, They're going

907
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:49,799
Speaker 2: to be extremely fresh. So you say, well, why don't

908
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 2: we just swallow all these points and move on. I

909
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 2: think the better bet is going to be in the

910
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:55,719
Speaker 2: first half and taking them on spread, even though that's

911
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 2: inflated up to minus nine and a half. And the

912
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,960
Speaker 2: reason is for for two for two reasons, the game

913
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 2: Cocks are going to play on Wednesday night next week

914
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 2: because Conference USA is going to take over our midweek

915
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:08,239
Speaker 2: in October. So if they're up by if rich Rod

916
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:10,440
Speaker 2: is up by twenty one points going into the second half,

917
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:12,920
Speaker 2: are we still running twenty three seconds per play? Are

918
00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:14,799
Speaker 2: we still trying to run the score up? But other

919
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 2: than that, if you look at Kennesaw State and the

920
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:21,319
Speaker 2: three games, the three FBS games they've played so far

921
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:25,839
Speaker 2: in the first half, they've logged one touchdown in three

922
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 2: first half against FBS opponents. So I would look Jacksonville

923
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 2: State minus nine and a half in the first half.

924
00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:31,800
Speaker 2: It's I think I'm going to be pulling the trigger

925
00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 2: there on that one.

926
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, Jacksonville State, I think the buy will benefit them

927
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 1: with tough quarterback. I just can't put my money on

928
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:41,560
Speaker 1: Kennessaull State. I tried it against San Jose State. The

929
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 1: team is just bad. Speaking of bad, the Houston offense,

930
00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:52,160
Speaker 1: I'll travel to TCU TCU sitting this number is in

931
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:54,120
Speaker 1: a bit of a dead range. Sixteen and a half

932
00:44:54,120 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 1: point favored here, total fifty one and a half. I

933
00:44:58,960 --> 00:45:01,719
Speaker 1: just bet this under small. It's scary to bet it. Look,

934
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:05,240
Speaker 1: I mean, these two teams are polar opposites. Houston's offense

935
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 1: is a kneemic to say the least. They have been

936
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:10,960
Speaker 1: shut out in two straight games.

937
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 2: Uh.

938
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 1: They've shut out against Cincinnati, which isn't a great look,

939
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 1: and shut out against Iowa State. They want to go slow.

940
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 1: They can't throw the ball at all. They want to

941
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:25,080
Speaker 1: run it. That's why every one of their games has

942
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:28,080
Speaker 1: gone under this year. On the polar opposite is TCU.

943
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:31,319
Speaker 1: TCU wants to go fast, they want to throw it.

944
00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:35,400
Speaker 1: They have an electric passing attack with Hoover under center.

945
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:38,479
Speaker 1: That's why every one of their FBS games has gone

946
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 1: over the total. So what gives here? I bet the

947
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:47,840
Speaker 1: under here because I look the I think what's going

948
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:50,720
Speaker 1: to happen is the Houston defense is actually pretty feisty

949
00:45:50,960 --> 00:45:54,239
Speaker 1: and they don't allow exposive plays. That's one thing that

950
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 1: they excel at. And their metrics are decent. They're playing

951
00:45:58,080 --> 00:46:01,440
Speaker 1: well at do I I played this a bit smaller

952
00:46:01,480 --> 00:46:03,440
Speaker 1: just because I'm worried. It's a short week. Their defense

953
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 1: is just does it get gassed at some point? I mean,

954
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 1: their offense is giving them absolutely nothing, but they do

955
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:12,560
Speaker 1: a good job. They're clearly the superior unit to their offense.

956
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:14,760
Speaker 1: So I think that they're going to prevent exposed to plays.

957
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 1: TCU will probably get their points, but I do think

958
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:21,400
Speaker 1: Houston could have some success running the ball. That's TCU's

959
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 1: biggest weakness. TCU also does a good job pass defense,

960
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:26,680
Speaker 1: which Houston's not gona to throw it here. They can't

961
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 1: throw it against anybody. And but TSU can be run

962
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:32,439
Speaker 1: on a bit. So what does that mean? I think

963
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 1: like Houston can have the ball a bit, leave the

964
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:38,880
Speaker 1: clock short in the game, and as the spread would indicate,

965
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 1: TSU probably going to extend at some point, and when

966
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:45,640
Speaker 1: that happens, TSU cannot run the ball. They can't run

967
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:49,399
Speaker 1: it at all. So you know where they go into, Hey,

968
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:51,719
Speaker 1: we have a lead here and they're going to I

969
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:53,399
Speaker 1: don't think that they're going to be driving the field

970
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 1: running it. It's then the clock's going to start really bleeding.

971
00:46:56,560 --> 00:47:00,280
Speaker 1: So I like the under Houston. You'll have a Houston

972
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:03,399
Speaker 1: to funny thing is Houston? Well, it'll feel like as

973
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:07,640
Speaker 1: your bat TCU. It doesn't. But I think fifty one

974
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:10,360
Speaker 1: are above there's some value in the under. What do

975
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:10,879
Speaker 1: you see here?

976
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:13,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can mark us down on our new board

977
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:15,920
Speaker 2: about whether we agree or not as yes, we agree,

978
00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 2: I have the under. Two took it at fifty one

979
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 2: and a half. I projected it at forty eight and

980
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:20,920
Speaker 2: a half, so I would still let it run a

981
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:23,120
Speaker 2: little bit more and I would still feel comfortable taking it.

982
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 2: These Houston numbers that you spoke of are dreadful, unbelievable,

983
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:31,319
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty third in offensive finishing drives. It's

984
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 2: not really so much that they're bad in scoring position,

985
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 2: it's that they are never in scoring position. Only fifteen

986
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:41,319
Speaker 2: drives the entire season have made it past the forty

987
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 2: yard line. They average two point two points per trip.

988
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 2: But when you go a little bit deeper than that,

989
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:48,880
Speaker 2: you say, okay, well, fifteen times Houston's made it past

990
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:51,759
Speaker 2: the forty, only seven times have they made it to

991
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 2: the twenty yard line into the real red zone. And

992
00:47:54,560 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 2: when you look at that, only three of those seven

993
00:47:56,560 --> 00:48:00,160
Speaker 2: trips have come as a score as a score where

994
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:02,080
Speaker 2: they only have two touchdowns out of the red zone

995
00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 2: this year. So if you're looking for points from Houston,

996
00:48:04,800 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 2: it just hasn't been good. And I doubt it's going

997
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 2: to start now. You know, if you have an under,

998
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:10,759
Speaker 2: you need to kind of handicap the other team and

999
00:48:10,800 --> 00:48:12,840
Speaker 2: what they're going to be able to do. And Houston

1000
00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 2: does have a defensive front that is top twenty in

1001
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 2: rushing success rate, So TCU doesn't run the ball that much,

1002
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:21,239
Speaker 2: and if they do cam Cook's only averaging two point

1003
00:48:21,280 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 2: four yards after first contact, so it's not like they

1004
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 2: have any juice on the ground and TCU is one

1005
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty second creating ground explosive, so you're just

1006
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:29,720
Speaker 2: not going to get that out of the horn Frogs.

1007
00:48:29,800 --> 00:48:31,440
Speaker 2: You have to look and see what Josh Hoover is

1008
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 2: going to do. From the passing game. The Houston secondary

1009
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 2: has actually been pretty decent this year and shutting down

1010
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:40,279
Speaker 2: the explosive pass. They're eleventh in defensive pass EPA, which

1011
00:48:40,320 --> 00:48:42,000
Speaker 2: means they're not going to allow something to get past

1012
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:45,480
Speaker 2: their secondary, and Hoover's numbers they look pretty we have

1013
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:47,279
Speaker 2: the same problem last year. They look pretty good from

1014
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 2: a TD to I INT perspective, but it's still an

1015
00:48:50,080 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 2: even distribution of big time throws a turnover worthy plays.

1016
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:55,359
Speaker 2: He has a three point two percent turnover worthy play

1017
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:57,520
Speaker 2: rate this year that is on par with last season.

1018
00:48:57,800 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 2: As we all know, Josh Hoover can come bust in

1019
00:49:00,760 --> 00:49:03,440
Speaker 2: some games. Not sure it's going to happen here, considering

1020
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:05,680
Speaker 2: Houston doesn't generate a lot of havoc. But at the

1021
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:09,400
Speaker 2: same time, both these teams major struggles in scoring.

1022
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 1: I like the under let's be on in the next game,

1023
00:49:11,480 --> 00:49:16,239
Speaker 1: Michigan State at Oregon. This is this game's hard for

1024
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:17,920
Speaker 1: me to handicap. Oregan's a twenty three and a half

1025
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:21,680
Speaker 1: point favorite total fifty two and a half. Michigan State.

1026
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 1: They're just a high variance team because Aiden Chiles, he

1027
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,640
Speaker 1: can make some incredible plays at quarterback when he also

1028
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:34,279
Speaker 1: I can just give the ball away at any given time.

1029
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 1: I thought that they got pretty unfortunate last week against

1030
00:49:39,200 --> 00:49:42,560
Speaker 1: Ohio State. They did some good things early, like I'm

1031
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:45,760
Speaker 1: looking here they went, they turned it over on downs

1032
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:49,080
Speaker 1: at the Ohio State twenty, then they fumbled it at

1033
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:54,680
Speaker 1: the Ohio State twenty. They did score a touchdown after

1034
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 1: an interception, but then they fumbled it at the Ohio

1035
00:49:57,160 --> 00:50:00,399
Speaker 1: State sixteen. So they had three drives inside the Ohio

1036
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:02,960
Speaker 1: State twenty where they didn't score. They ended up losing

1037
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 1: thirty eight to seven. But you play that that, you

1038
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:09,160
Speaker 1: play Ohio State. Now you have a short week traveling

1039
00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:13,720
Speaker 1: out to out west to Eugene to take on Oregon.

1040
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:19,319
Speaker 1: Oregon has Ohio State on deck. So you saw last

1041
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:22,319
Speaker 1: week against UCLA once they got up kind of just heay,

1042
00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:26,319
Speaker 1: we're good here. Do they do that here or did

1043
00:50:26,360 --> 00:50:29,000
Speaker 1: they blow the doors off Sparty's From a spot perspective,

1044
00:50:29,040 --> 00:50:31,239
Speaker 1: I could argue both sides. So I think it's part

1045
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:34,239
Speaker 1: of a wash, partly a wash there. I think you

1046
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:35,239
Speaker 1: you like the Ducks here?

1047
00:50:35,520 --> 00:50:35,839
Speaker 2: I do.

1048
00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:36,279
Speaker 1: I do.

1049
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:39,319
Speaker 2: There's a major havoc advantage here for the Ducks. And

1050
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 2: you know, Jonathan Smith has just never been comfortable in Austin.

1051
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:43,960
Speaker 2: He never won the three times that he coached there

1052
00:50:44,040 --> 00:50:47,240
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, twenty twenty one, and last year was drummed

1053
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 2: thirty one to seven. So he still has not really

1054
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:51,759
Speaker 2: figured out how to be Dan Lanning, or how to

1055
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:53,560
Speaker 2: beat Crystball, or how to beat anybody that's been the

1056
00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:56,040
Speaker 2: coach at Oregon. And there's just, like I said, big

1057
00:50:56,080 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 2: issues from a havoc perspective here. Oregon seven tackles for

1058
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:02,279
Speaker 2: loss of four pass his defense against UCLA A last week,

1059
00:51:02,680 --> 00:51:04,879
Speaker 2: and the Ducks are third nationally in passes defense, which

1060
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 2: is a combination of pass breakups and interceptions. And when

1061
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:09,319
Speaker 2: you go to the other side, this is where it

1062
00:51:09,320 --> 00:51:12,080
Speaker 2: gets real dicey, because we like Eid and Childs. We

1063
00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:14,560
Speaker 2: liked him coming into this season, but it's been bad.

1064
00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:17,239
Speaker 2: He's he's really struggled nine interceptions, but he has a

1065
00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 2: greater number of turnover worth. He plays at fourteen already

1066
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:23,680
Speaker 2: this season. Michigan State is you know, they just can't

1067
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:26,000
Speaker 2: seal the deal when they get into scoring position. I

1068
00:51:26,040 --> 00:51:28,480
Speaker 2: don't expect the Spartans to score much here, so really

1069
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:30,839
Speaker 2: the question is if Oregan's got overlooked Ohio State, can

1070
00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:33,560
Speaker 2: the base offense and the base defense beat Michigan State

1071
00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:36,799
Speaker 2: based upon history of Jonathan Smith and Autson Based upon

1072
00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 2: the Havoc numbers, I think Oregon gets it done. I

1073
00:51:38,600 --> 00:51:40,319
Speaker 2: projected about twenty five and a half, so I think

1074
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:42,279
Speaker 2: there is a little room here to get Oregon right now.

1075
00:51:43,040 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, try to get that under twenty four if you're

1076
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:49,160
Speaker 1: following along. And finally, well, late night pick nine pm

1077
00:51:49,160 --> 00:51:54,279
Speaker 1: Eastern kick on FS one really fascinating game between Syracuse

1078
00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 1: and UNLV. Syracuse has to travel out west, but you

1079
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:03,440
Speaker 1: know UNLV is for Syracuse who today they played Holy

1080
00:52:03,520 --> 00:52:06,680
Speaker 1: Cross so they had a bit of a layup. Last week.

1081
00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:10,440
Speaker 1: UNLV coming off a pretty emotional win of a Fresno State.

1082
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 1: They just blew the doors off the Bulldogs after making

1083
00:52:14,160 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 1: a quarterback change to Hodgeen League Wiams, who was electric

1084
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 1: now I don't think the UNV defense gets enough credit.

1085
00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 1: One of the most improved units at the group of

1086
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 1: five level, A couple of Arkansas guys that you're familiar

1087
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:32,200
Speaker 1: with that Barry Odom brought over, you know, Jalen Catalan,

1088
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:35,160
Speaker 1: their linebackers, one of the best players at the group

1089
00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:38,680
Speaker 1: of five level. This defense is good, you know. Incomes

1090
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:42,440
Speaker 1: of Syracuse offense com McCord, I think he leads FPS

1091
00:52:42,440 --> 00:52:46,320
Speaker 1: in passing yards. He's been good, and they have great weapons,

1092
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:49,160
Speaker 1: but he's been a bitter radic at times. I show

1093
00:52:49,239 --> 00:52:52,879
Speaker 1: value in Syracuse at this number, especially if it gets

1094
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:56,080
Speaker 1: to seven. But my question is how much of an

1095
00:52:56,160 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 1: upgrade is UNLV with Hodge Malik Williams if that is

1096
00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:03,839
Speaker 1: indeed the case last week. I do think that they

1097
00:53:03,920 --> 00:53:06,440
Speaker 1: benefited a bit from the element of surprise, right like

1098
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:09,799
Speaker 1: that was his first start. Now Syracuse has seen what

1099
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 1: that looks like. I thought I had a feeling that

1100
00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:14,040
Speaker 1: that was like a rallying game for UNLV after everything

1101
00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:18,000
Speaker 1: that happened. So this is a really fascinating game UNLV

1102
00:53:18,120 --> 00:53:22,480
Speaker 1: definitely in the conversation. Now for a group of five

1103
00:53:22,719 --> 00:53:25,759
Speaker 1: playoff berth, this can be another feather in their cap.

1104
00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:26,480
Speaker 1: What do you see here?

1105
00:53:26,719 --> 00:53:27,960
Speaker 2: I think the question is what do you do with

1106
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:30,200
Speaker 2: UNLV's power rating once you see a game like that,

1107
00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:33,399
Speaker 2: there's a quarterback change better on the ground. I raised

1108
00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 2: them three and a half points to go from SLUCA

1109
00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:39,080
Speaker 2: to Williams. So you know there's that number. I think

1110
00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:41,000
Speaker 2: is in discretionary. You can make it whatever you want.

1111
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:43,560
Speaker 2: I don't think I adjusted to UNLV enough that brings

1112
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:45,520
Speaker 2: this game for me to UNLV minus five. So I

1113
00:53:45,560 --> 00:53:48,440
Speaker 2: completely understand the steam, the overlook and the steam in

1114
00:53:48,440 --> 00:53:49,799
Speaker 2: this game to get up to six and a half

1115
00:53:49,840 --> 00:53:51,239
Speaker 2: and I think seven. You're going to get a lot

1116
00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 2: of Syracuse scoops here just by guys the new numbers.

1117
00:53:54,200 --> 00:53:56,279
Speaker 2: But who can really make a case about where the

1118
00:53:56,280 --> 00:53:58,920
Speaker 2: ceiling is for UNLV right now? But really it's the

1119
00:53:59,360 --> 00:54:03,120
Speaker 2: Syracuse is track against mobile quarterbacks. That's not going to

1120
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:05,000
Speaker 2: get me to put a bet on the Orange here whatsoever.

1121
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:07,919
Speaker 2: I mean Stanford Ashton Daniels led the Trees to more

1122
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:10,160
Speaker 2: first downs than Syracuse had. He had a sixty percent

1123
00:54:10,200 --> 00:54:13,040
Speaker 2: success rate in standard downs and Syracuse almost won that game.

1124
00:54:13,400 --> 00:54:15,680
Speaker 2: You go look at Georgia Tech and Haines King twenty

1125
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:18,040
Speaker 2: nine to thirty nine, passing. He had sixty seven yards

1126
00:54:18,080 --> 00:54:21,800
Speaker 2: on the ground two rushing tds. These are known mobile quarterbacks,

1127
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 2: and now Syracuse has got them again. It really when

1128
00:54:24,520 --> 00:54:26,640
Speaker 2: you have a strength of schedule stuck that's one hundred

1129
00:54:26,640 --> 00:54:29,040
Speaker 2: and twenty fifth in the nation, and your defense is

1130
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:31,560
Speaker 2: eighty fifth in tackling and your ninety eight the defensive

1131
00:54:31,560 --> 00:54:34,239
Speaker 2: finishing drives. That gives me confidence that UNLV is going

1132
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:37,040
Speaker 2: to be able to a move the ball, b avoid

1133
00:54:37,080 --> 00:54:39,839
Speaker 2: tackles like crazy, and ce score when they get into

1134
00:54:39,880 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 2: scoring positions. So I lean UNLVR all the way. I

1135
00:54:42,560 --> 00:54:44,400
Speaker 2: have a put money down because I think you're getting

1136
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:47,560
Speaker 2: the most inflation you can on the rebels. Maybe this

1137
00:54:47,640 --> 00:54:49,600
Speaker 2: goes back and forth. I know the totals, I'm really shocking.

1138
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:51,640
Speaker 2: Total is about fifty eight and a half. You would

1139
00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:53,759
Speaker 2: think that these teams would rock it downfield with Syracuse's

1140
00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:55,960
Speaker 2: pace at twenty five seconds per play, But you know,

1141
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:59,160
Speaker 2: unlv defense has been great. You mentioned Catalan for everybody

1142
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 2: that doesn't know. Jalen Ca was the heartbeat, the voice

1143
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:04,799
Speaker 2: of the locker room for the Razorback defense, while Barry

1144
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:07,200
Speaker 2: Odom was a defensive coordinator for three years. You and

1145
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 2: l these defense has been tremendous this year. I think

1146
00:55:10,040 --> 00:55:11,640
Speaker 2: we're at the top of the market on this number here,

1147
00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:13,680
Speaker 2: and I probably wild't let it ride and try to

1148
00:55:13,680 --> 00:55:14,520
Speaker 2: play U ANDLB live.

1149
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:18,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm seven. I'd be interested in Syracuse flat seven,

1150
00:55:18,320 --> 00:55:20,040
Speaker 1: maybe Syracuse Live. I do think this will be a

1151
00:55:20,040 --> 00:55:22,200
Speaker 1: back and forth geame, but should be a fun one

1152
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 1: out in the desert. All right, let's move on to

1153
00:55:25,120 --> 00:55:29,360
Speaker 1: second down. Our favorite overdogs, aka our favorite favorites.

1154
00:55:29,800 --> 00:55:31,440
Speaker 2: It's called the over dogs parlay.

1155
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:34,239
Speaker 1: I'll kick things off. I'm going Penn State minus twenty

1156
00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:36,960
Speaker 1: seven and a half. They burnt me last week barely,

1157
00:55:37,000 --> 00:55:39,800
Speaker 1: just didn't get there. They had three drives inside the

1158
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:42,160
Speaker 1: twenty five that ended in no points, missed field goals.

1159
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:43,960
Speaker 1: They went for it on fourth down, didn't get it.

1160
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:48,319
Speaker 1: They dominated Illinois, dominated Illinois, and that came from a

1161
00:55:48,320 --> 00:55:51,280
Speaker 1: net success rate. I think it was the most lopsided

1162
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:56,640
Speaker 1: game in all of college football last weekend. How's UCL

1163
00:55:56,640 --> 00:56:00,799
Speaker 1: like scoring here? I just don't know Garber's quarterback. He's

1164
00:56:00,800 --> 00:56:03,400
Speaker 1: going to try to play, but he's hurt. Their offensive

1165
00:56:03,440 --> 00:56:08,880
Speaker 1: line is horrid. They cannot run the ball. Penn State's

1166
00:56:08,880 --> 00:56:10,440
Speaker 1: going to be able to tee off you might look

1167
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:12,799
Speaker 1: at the score last week against Oregon and say, well, yeah,

1168
00:56:12,920 --> 00:56:15,600
Speaker 1: Ucla covered. I mean they had a pick six in

1169
00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:19,399
Speaker 1: that game. I just don't see them doing anything here.

1170
00:56:19,680 --> 00:56:22,319
Speaker 1: Why one fear is Penn State. You know they are

1171
00:56:23,120 --> 00:56:27,399
Speaker 1: They're not fast, and they do have USC on deck.

1172
00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:30,800
Speaker 1: But I know he burned me last week. But Franklin

1173
00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 1: in these spots has generally been very good. I think

1174
00:56:35,600 --> 00:56:40,400
Speaker 1: this line should be like thirty ish so under four touchdowns,

1175
00:56:40,400 --> 00:56:42,320
Speaker 1: which is still out there. Give me Penn State. I

1176
00:56:42,320 --> 00:56:46,160
Speaker 1: think they roll Ucla. I didn't even mentioned Ucla. I mean,

1177
00:56:46,239 --> 00:56:48,759
Speaker 1: can we look at what first of all, I mean,

1178
00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:52,799
Speaker 1: they're offen Spad. They barely beat Hawaii. We saw them

1179
00:56:53,040 --> 00:56:58,120
Speaker 1: get destroyed by Indiana. But they've gone to Hawaii already

1180
00:56:58,120 --> 00:57:04,719
Speaker 1: this year. Then they went out to LSU two weeks ago.

1181
00:57:05,200 --> 00:57:09,160
Speaker 1: They come home to play Oregon. Now they fly east

1182
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:14,239
Speaker 1: to play Penn State. That is brutal travel schedule, three

1183
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 1: straight brutal opponents. This is a tough spot for you, say,

1184
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:21,720
Speaker 1: noon kick two. I think this sets up for a

1185
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:22,560
Speaker 1: Penn State blowout.

1186
00:57:23,600 --> 00:57:26,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, you gotta wonder when codl Nikki is going to

1187
00:57:26,520 --> 00:57:29,920
Speaker 2: dive one percent into the playbook. This could be it

1188
00:57:30,640 --> 00:57:33,760
Speaker 2: going out to La against USC. We'll see if he

1189
00:57:33,800 --> 00:57:36,040
Speaker 2: opens it up then when he takes on Lincoln Riley.

1190
00:57:36,560 --> 00:57:38,400
Speaker 2: I like that, all right, So we'll go Oregon State

1191
00:57:38,440 --> 00:57:41,439
Speaker 2: here for my overdog. Let's get weird in core Valis here.

1192
00:57:41,720 --> 00:57:43,480
Speaker 2: I project this game at seventeen. I think it's got

1193
00:57:43,560 --> 00:57:45,240
Speaker 2: room to run. And the Beavers are coming off of

1194
00:57:45,240 --> 00:57:47,000
Speaker 2: a bye week. They're going to be taking on a

1195
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:51,720
Speaker 2: Colorado State team that is just lifeless Without Tory Horton.

1196
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:54,240
Speaker 2: He is paramount to every game that Colorado State plays

1197
00:57:54,240 --> 00:57:58,480
Speaker 2: in currently right now, questionable, getting better week by week,

1198
00:57:58,520 --> 00:58:00,120
Speaker 2: but he is not at full health. Even if he

1199
00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:02,320
Speaker 2: does play, And if Tory Horton does play, he's got

1200
00:58:02,320 --> 00:58:04,880
Speaker 2: to deal with the corners Jaden Robbins, Andre Jordan and

1201
00:58:04,960 --> 00:58:08,160
Speaker 2: Kobe Singleton. They will definitely get the duties and doing

1202
00:58:08,200 --> 00:58:09,600
Speaker 2: whatever they have to do in their Cover one and

1203
00:58:09,640 --> 00:58:12,160
Speaker 2: Cover three to jump all over Tory Horton. So Horton

1204
00:58:12,200 --> 00:58:14,760
Speaker 2: is still questionable. That's a big downgrade for Colorado State

1205
00:58:14,760 --> 00:58:17,840
Speaker 2: if he doesn't play. And Brayden Foller Nickeolosi has been

1206
00:58:17,920 --> 00:58:20,080
Speaker 2: nothing like what he's been in seasons past, and when

1207
00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:22,880
Speaker 2: you lose, you know, Justice Ross Simmons and you lose Horton,

1208
00:58:23,480 --> 00:58:25,360
Speaker 2: it's really going to take away all of his weapons.

1209
00:58:25,400 --> 00:58:29,720
Speaker 2: His average depth of target is nearly two yards lower

1210
00:58:29,760 --> 00:58:31,880
Speaker 2: than what it was last year. He has twice as

1211
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:35,840
Speaker 2: many interceptions as touchdowns right now. The Colorado State drop

1212
00:58:35,920 --> 00:58:38,960
Speaker 2: rate right now is just on the increase six percent

1213
00:58:39,120 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 2: up to eight point seven percent this year. Nobody can

1214
00:58:42,080 --> 00:58:44,600
Speaker 2: hold onto the ball or say plays more Cover one

1215
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:47,560
Speaker 2: than anybody. And if you look at Faler Nicle Nicolosi's

1216
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:50,960
Speaker 2: record against Cover one, it just skyrockets and negative plays

1217
00:58:50,960 --> 00:58:54,320
Speaker 2: against Cover one fourteen point one percent of the time

1218
00:58:55,400 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 2: Faler Nickelosi looks at Cover one, he makes a huge

1219
00:58:58,520 --> 00:59:03,040
Speaker 2: negative mistake negative EPA at zero point four yards per

1220
00:59:03,160 --> 00:59:06,240
Speaker 2: pass against Cover one. So there are a lot of

1221
00:59:06,240 --> 00:59:08,280
Speaker 2: things here that say they're not going to have a

1222
00:59:08,320 --> 00:59:10,000
Speaker 2: Colora State's not going to have a good passing game.

1223
00:59:10,120 --> 00:59:12,400
Speaker 2: Even if Tory Horton does play, he's probably gonna get

1224
00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:14,280
Speaker 2: double team. I think there's a lot going on here.

1225
00:59:14,320 --> 00:59:16,720
Speaker 2: And Oregon State's rush offense is just you know, Colora

1226
00:59:16,760 --> 00:59:18,080
Speaker 2: State is not gonna be able to defend that. So

1227
00:59:18,600 --> 00:59:21,080
Speaker 2: give me Oregon State here minus eleven. I would take

1228
00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:22,120
Speaker 2: it all the way up through fourteen.

1229
00:59:22,720 --> 00:59:26,680
Speaker 1: Disagree. Going ahead to head, I'm on Colorado State here.

1230
00:59:27,360 --> 00:59:29,959
Speaker 1: I'm hearing good things about Horton and they will be back.

1231
00:59:30,400 --> 00:59:33,640
Speaker 1: That's massive. Oregon State, to me, doesn't profile is a

1232
00:59:33,640 --> 00:59:35,439
Speaker 1: good double digit favorite. I mean, this is a run

1233
00:59:35,480 --> 00:59:39,400
Speaker 1: heavy team. They can't really throw the ball that well,

1234
00:59:39,760 --> 00:59:43,400
Speaker 1: and that's Colorado State's main weakness. Colorida State not only

1235
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:46,200
Speaker 1: are I think they're getting Horton back, which is just massive,

1236
00:59:46,520 --> 00:59:49,000
Speaker 1: but they're getting other guys on their defense back. Their

1237
00:59:49,000 --> 00:59:51,480
Speaker 1: best pass rusher, which they need it will make his debut.

1238
00:59:52,240 --> 00:59:54,640
Speaker 1: They're getting another depth piece back on the defensive line.

1239
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:58,720
Speaker 1: Their best safety was just cleared safety position of strength.

1240
00:59:58,760 --> 01:00:01,080
Speaker 1: And Oregon State wants to run the ball. That's Colorado

1241
01:00:01,080 --> 01:00:05,640
Speaker 1: State's defensive strength, their run defense. So I think they

1242
01:00:05,680 --> 01:00:08,760
Speaker 1: can get Moro going to on the ground to help Nicolosi.

1243
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:12,720
Speaker 1: The Oregon State run defense is just dreadful. We're going

1244
01:00:12,760 --> 01:00:14,600
Speaker 1: head to head here, all right, Let's move on to

1245
01:00:14,680 --> 01:00:19,160
Speaker 1: third down. It's our underdog moneyline parlay. Our two favorite

1246
01:00:19,880 --> 01:00:27,800
Speaker 1: money line underdogs turning good weekends into great weekends. It's

1247
01:00:27,920 --> 01:00:32,160
Speaker 1: time for the money line parlay. I'm gonna go wake

1248
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:36,000
Speaker 1: Forest here, injury is a bit of a concern. You know,

1249
01:00:36,360 --> 01:00:39,240
Speaker 1: Demon Claiborne, their running back, was really good. He he

1250
01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:42,480
Speaker 1: got carted off with a dislocated knee last week, came

1251
01:00:42,640 --> 01:00:45,960
Speaker 1: back in the second half. I've never seen this. He

1252
01:00:46,040 --> 01:00:49,080
Speaker 1: got carted off, came back around for a sixty yard touchdown.

1253
01:00:50,160 --> 01:00:52,600
Speaker 1: Donovan Green's been one of the best receivers they He's

1254
01:00:52,600 --> 01:00:54,800
Speaker 1: been limited the past two weeks. He's still dealing with

1255
01:00:54,840 --> 01:00:57,720
Speaker 1: a lingering leg issue. You know, when he was healthy

1256
01:00:57,720 --> 01:01:00,280
Speaker 1: against Virginia, I think you much for like eleven one

1257
01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:02,320
Speaker 1: to sixty. They're also gonna be missing a couple of

1258
01:01:02,360 --> 01:01:04,760
Speaker 1: key guys on defense, you know, one of their best

1259
01:01:04,760 --> 01:01:07,480
Speaker 1: defensive linemen, one of their starting corners. So it's a

1260
01:01:07,520 --> 01:01:11,080
Speaker 1: banged up team. But the best unit on the field

1261
01:01:11,080 --> 01:01:14,200
Speaker 1: will be the wake Forest offense. Tank Bachmar, He's Blackmar

1262
01:01:14,200 --> 01:01:17,400
Speaker 1: has had a really good handle of this slow mesh.

1263
01:01:17,560 --> 01:01:21,160
Speaker 1: Their offense has been really good. Very unlucky. They you know,

1264
01:01:21,160 --> 01:01:23,520
Speaker 1: they blew a two touchdown fourth quarter lead against Virginia.

1265
01:01:24,240 --> 01:01:27,440
Speaker 1: Last week against Louisiana, this is it's a coin flip game.

1266
01:01:27,480 --> 01:01:30,000
Speaker 1: They doint the field goal. Special teams are concerned here

1267
01:01:30,000 --> 01:01:32,560
Speaker 1: in this game because NC State will have an advantage there.

1268
01:01:32,600 --> 01:01:35,200
Speaker 1: But this is mainly a fate of NC State. How

1269
01:01:35,200 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 1: many more data points do we need to tell us

1270
01:01:38,160 --> 01:01:41,360
Speaker 1: that NC State's a bad football team. Do you want

1271
01:01:41,360 --> 01:01:42,000
Speaker 1: to go through them?

1272
01:01:42,200 --> 01:01:44,280
Speaker 2: No, we only need Western Carolina, That's all we need.

1273
01:01:44,400 --> 01:01:46,920
Speaker 1: Western Carolina was one they had to come back in

1274
01:01:46,960 --> 01:01:50,800
Speaker 1: the fourth against Western Carolina. I said, okay, it was

1275
01:01:50,800 --> 01:01:52,600
Speaker 1: the first game. By the way, Western Carolina is one

1276
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:55,560
Speaker 1: win on the year of Elon by seven. Louisiana Tech.

1277
01:01:56,360 --> 01:01:58,600
Speaker 1: Louisiana Tech they had to come back against at home.

1278
01:01:58,960 --> 01:02:02,040
Speaker 1: What you know, Louisiana they lost a toll set home.

1279
01:02:03,440 --> 01:02:07,479
Speaker 1: They lost to FIU last week. FIU the week before

1280
01:02:07,560 --> 01:02:10,480
Speaker 1: lost a Monmouth, and then last week you might say, oh,

1281
01:02:10,560 --> 01:02:14,920
Speaker 1: NC State beat Northern Illinois. That was lucky. They had

1282
01:02:15,040 --> 01:02:20,120
Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy yards. They forced four turnovers in

1283
01:02:20,200 --> 01:02:23,040
Speaker 1: a Ford nothing turnover edge. Northern Illinois still had a

1284
01:02:23,120 --> 01:02:27,160
Speaker 1: chance late Buffalo at Northern Illinois had more yards than

1285
01:02:27,240 --> 01:02:30,600
Speaker 1: NC State did. The offense is broken. They can't run

1286
01:02:30,640 --> 01:02:33,280
Speaker 1: the ball. Bailey, I don't think the their freshman quarterback

1287
01:02:33,360 --> 01:02:35,160
Speaker 1: is not ready. I mean, this is a kid who

1288
01:02:35,160 --> 01:02:38,400
Speaker 1: played in high school last year with Jeremiah Smith and

1289
01:02:38,440 --> 01:02:40,960
Speaker 1: a bunch of five star receivers. It's not the same

1290
01:02:41,040 --> 01:02:43,360
Speaker 1: right now. I don't think he's ready. Kids got some talent,

1291
01:02:43,440 --> 01:02:47,440
Speaker 1: but that their defense hasn't even been good. So this

1292
01:02:47,920 --> 01:02:51,320
Speaker 1: NC State team is just not good. They're bad every week.

1293
01:02:51,360 --> 01:02:54,000
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter who they play. The opponent has a

1294
01:02:54,080 --> 01:02:57,080
Speaker 1: chance against them, whether it be LA Tech, Western Carolina,

1295
01:02:57,320 --> 01:03:03,440
Speaker 1: Northern Illinois. They get, you know, absolutely bamboozled by Clemson

1296
01:03:03,520 --> 01:03:06,400
Speaker 1: and Tennessee. It's not a good football team right now.

1297
01:03:06,880 --> 01:03:10,840
Speaker 1: Wake Forest season on the break. Dave Clawson's good coach,

1298
01:03:11,400 --> 01:03:15,840
Speaker 1: good as an underdog. Injuries are concerned, special teams are concerned,

1299
01:03:15,840 --> 01:03:18,520
Speaker 1: but that Wake offense, especially if Green as Can Go

1300
01:03:19,320 --> 01:03:21,720
Speaker 1: has some juice. Give me the Demon Deacons.

1301
01:03:22,280 --> 01:03:24,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, you'd like NC State to figure it out, but

1302
01:03:24,120 --> 01:03:26,840
Speaker 2: they got too many data points to try to figure out.

1303
01:03:26,960 --> 01:03:31,360
Speaker 2: I am going to fade. UCF has nothing to do

1304
01:03:31,440 --> 01:03:33,440
Speaker 2: with how much money came out of my pocket last

1305
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:36,760
Speaker 2: week against Colorado, but I really like Florida and this spot.

1306
01:03:36,840 --> 01:03:41,320
Speaker 2: UCF continues to struggle in scoring position despite producing the

1307
01:03:41,440 --> 01:03:45,320
Speaker 2: seventh best mark in quality drives. kJ Jefferson and RJ.

1308
01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:48,160
Speaker 2: Harvey are boat racing down the field. They're getting into

1309
01:03:48,160 --> 01:03:48,880
Speaker 2: scoring position.

1310
01:03:49,000 --> 01:03:53,240
Speaker 1: Wait wait, wait, you're fading your UCF team, and by

1311
01:03:53,360 --> 01:03:57,920
Speaker 1: betting on Billy Napier, I I stopped saying that name

1312
01:03:57,960 --> 01:03:58,320
Speaker 1: out loud.

1313
01:03:58,320 --> 01:03:59,960
Speaker 2: I stopped saying that name out loud in twenty two,

1314
01:04:00,320 --> 01:04:01,400
Speaker 2: So I can't say it's the.

1315
01:04:01,400 --> 01:04:04,560
Speaker 1: Most unlikely bet. If I go through the entire board

1316
01:04:04,560 --> 01:04:06,080
Speaker 1: and cross off one bet that you were going to

1317
01:04:06,120 --> 01:04:08,480
Speaker 1: make this week, it would be Florida and Billy naper

1318
01:04:08,760 --> 01:04:12,520
Speaker 1: against your I mean, how much did the Knights hurt

1319
01:04:12,520 --> 01:04:13,240
Speaker 1: you last weekend?

1320
01:04:13,320 --> 01:04:13,600
Speaker 2: Wow?

1321
01:04:13,920 --> 01:04:14,439
Speaker 1: Pretty bad?

1322
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:17,400
Speaker 2: Pretty bad. That was a bad loss. And as far

1323
01:04:17,440 --> 01:04:19,200
Speaker 2: as the coach of Florida, whenever it gets fired, I

1324
01:04:19,240 --> 01:04:22,160
Speaker 2: welcome him being the first analyst added to Steve Sarkesian

1325
01:04:22,200 --> 01:04:24,520
Speaker 2: staff in Texas. But I am going to back the

1326
01:04:24,560 --> 01:04:26,160
Speaker 2: Gators here. There's just I mean, there's a lot of

1327
01:04:26,160 --> 01:04:28,240
Speaker 2: things in the numbers that tell me that Florida is

1328
01:04:28,280 --> 01:04:31,280
Speaker 2: going to have at least an easier time than what

1329
01:04:31,320 --> 01:04:33,440
Speaker 2: the point spread says it's going to be. But like

1330
01:04:33,480 --> 01:04:35,960
Speaker 2: I said, UCF is boat racing down the field on teams,

1331
01:04:36,000 --> 01:04:38,840
Speaker 2: but they are heavily struggling in scoring position. I just

1332
01:04:38,920 --> 01:04:41,240
Speaker 2: go back to kJ Jefferson throwing an end zone fade.

1333
01:04:41,520 --> 01:04:45,000
Speaker 2: I don't even know how that is happening. But UCF

1334
01:04:45,000 --> 01:04:48,000
Speaker 2: has made thirty seven trips into scoring position this year.

1335
01:04:48,040 --> 01:04:50,640
Speaker 2: They average three point two points per trip. Field goals

1336
01:04:50,640 --> 01:04:52,200
Speaker 2: are not going to beat a lot of teams. It

1337
01:04:52,240 --> 01:04:55,200
Speaker 2: definitely did not work against Colorado, And the bigger issue

1338
01:04:55,280 --> 01:04:58,040
Speaker 2: is the secondary for the UCF. On the defensive side

1339
01:04:58,040 --> 01:04:59,520
Speaker 2: of the ball, they're one hundred and twenty fourth in

1340
01:04:59,560 --> 01:05:02,600
Speaker 2: defensive passing success rate. They're one hundred and thirtyth then

1341
01:05:02,640 --> 01:05:05,320
Speaker 2: allowing explosives through the air. You want to go over

1342
01:05:05,360 --> 01:05:06,880
Speaker 2: to Florida and see what they're doing. They're going to

1343
01:05:06,960 --> 01:05:09,040
Speaker 2: go with a hybrid approach. They're going to go dj lagway,

1344
01:05:09,040 --> 01:05:11,720
Speaker 2: They're gonna go little Graam Mertz. I think we're still

1345
01:05:11,760 --> 01:05:13,240
Speaker 2: trying to figure out who has the hot hand and

1346
01:05:13,320 --> 01:05:15,560
Speaker 2: let's stick with them. But Mertz has been highly accurate.

1347
01:05:15,600 --> 01:05:17,560
Speaker 2: I know his average depth of target is about the

1348
01:05:17,640 --> 01:05:21,240
Speaker 2: length of my arm, but you know he's he's been

1349
01:05:21,320 --> 01:05:24,439
Speaker 2: extremely accurate. Nineteen to twenty one passing against Mississippi State

1350
01:05:24,760 --> 01:05:27,680
Speaker 2: with three touchdowns an average depth of target of five yards.

1351
01:05:27,720 --> 01:05:29,200
Speaker 2: So if they want to go Florida wants to go

1352
01:05:29,240 --> 01:05:31,480
Speaker 2: pe shooter, they can use Mertz, but if they want

1353
01:05:31,480 --> 01:05:33,360
Speaker 2: to go with the home run header DJ Lagway. He

1354
01:05:33,400 --> 01:05:36,520
Speaker 2: has yet to produce a turnover worthy play in fifty

1355
01:05:36,560 --> 01:05:39,320
Speaker 2: three passing attempts, so so far he's bankable to not

1356
01:05:39,360 --> 01:05:42,560
Speaker 2: make a mistake. Two interceptions that were graded against Texas

1357
01:05:42,600 --> 01:05:46,120
Speaker 2: A and M, they were considered on the actual receivers

1358
01:05:46,160 --> 01:05:48,320
Speaker 2: themselves and not on Lagway, So he doesn't have any

1359
01:05:48,320 --> 01:05:51,600
Speaker 2: turnover worthy plays yet this year. So either Lagway or Mertz,

1360
01:05:51,600 --> 01:05:54,400
Speaker 2: they're going to be protected. This offensive line is fifth

1361
01:05:54,400 --> 01:05:56,680
Speaker 2: and pass blocking. There's not going to be any pressure

1362
01:05:56,680 --> 01:06:00,200
Speaker 2: coming in from the UCF defensive line and Florida, this

1363
01:06:00,280 --> 01:06:02,360
Speaker 2: game turns into a shootout and we want to get

1364
01:06:02,360 --> 01:06:05,120
Speaker 2: tempo in here, and UCF actually decides they want to

1365
01:06:05,120 --> 01:06:08,120
Speaker 2: score and keep this close. Good luck, because Florida is

1366
01:06:08,160 --> 01:06:09,920
Speaker 2: one of the best scoring teams in the nation their

1367
01:06:09,960 --> 01:06:12,760
Speaker 2: tenth and offensive finishing drives. They cash in when they

1368
01:06:12,760 --> 01:06:15,040
Speaker 2: get into scoring opportunities. And in this case, I'm going

1369
01:06:15,120 --> 01:06:17,840
Speaker 2: to back the team that is better beyond the twenty,

1370
01:06:17,920 --> 01:06:20,800
Speaker 2: beyond the forty at getting points on the board than UCF.

1371
01:06:20,880 --> 01:06:22,600
Speaker 2: So give me the Gators here all the way.

1372
01:06:23,000 --> 01:06:27,040
Speaker 1: Miss is stunning. I can't believe this. You know what

1373
01:06:27,080 --> 01:06:29,720
Speaker 1: the best bet on the board is UCF team total

1374
01:06:29,840 --> 01:06:33,520
Speaker 1: over after they let you down last week. Lock to

1375
01:06:33,600 --> 01:06:36,320
Speaker 1: go over their team total before you get out of here.

1376
01:06:36,400 --> 01:06:38,560
Speaker 1: Let's go for it on fourth down. Favorite bet of

1377
01:06:38,600 --> 01:06:43,440
Speaker 1: the weekend. Hot damn, this is fun. Let's roll the boat.

1378
01:06:43,640 --> 01:06:48,120
Speaker 1: Give me the Gophers against USC. If they gave me

1379
01:06:48,160 --> 01:06:50,280
Speaker 1: one word to describe you right now, man, that would

1380
01:06:50,280 --> 01:06:54,000
Speaker 1: be a trailblazer. You know what trailblazers do. They blaze

1381
01:06:54,040 --> 01:06:57,800
Speaker 1: trails for other people to be coming ly on the surface.

1382
01:06:57,880 --> 01:07:00,720
Speaker 1: Just tricky spot for USC. Played it physical game against

1383
01:07:00,760 --> 01:07:05,040
Speaker 1: Michigan back home play Wisconsin and their backup quarterback in

1384
01:07:05,080 --> 01:07:07,080
Speaker 1: the game that was stay were down double digitson now

1385
01:07:07,320 --> 01:07:12,240
Speaker 1: head back out east to take on Minnesota in primetime

1386
01:07:12,440 --> 01:07:15,240
Speaker 1: with Penn State on deck. Not an ideal spot. And

1387
01:07:15,240 --> 01:07:18,760
Speaker 1: by the way, USC hasn't won a game in the

1388
01:07:18,760 --> 01:07:21,880
Speaker 1: Eastern or Central time zone since twenty twelve. I think

1389
01:07:21,880 --> 01:07:25,080
Speaker 1: they're zero to nine straight up end against the spread

1390
01:07:25,600 --> 01:07:30,840
Speaker 1: that includes a loss in Michigan. Minnesota can replicate, duplicate

1391
01:07:30,880 --> 01:07:35,040
Speaker 1: the game plan that Michigan had, control the clock, run

1392
01:07:35,080 --> 01:07:36,760
Speaker 1: the ball. They can get a push. The Minnesota offensive

1393
01:07:36,760 --> 01:07:38,520
Speaker 1: line can finally get a push here. This will feel

1394
01:07:38,520 --> 01:07:42,040
Speaker 1: like a breather. They just face the Iowa and Michigan defenses.

1395
01:07:42,560 --> 01:07:45,360
Speaker 1: And I do think that the Minnesota offense is starting

1396
01:07:45,360 --> 01:07:49,120
Speaker 1: to come along. You know, Brosmer transferred to He's starting

1397
01:07:49,120 --> 01:07:53,040
Speaker 1: to get more comfortable in that offense. Their skilled position players,

1398
01:07:53,040 --> 01:07:56,760
Speaker 1: their two best Darius Taylor Daniel Jackson, are finally fully healthy.

1399
01:07:57,760 --> 01:08:00,640
Speaker 1: They at Michigan they arguably should have won. Last week

1400
01:08:00,640 --> 01:08:04,120
Speaker 1: at Michigan, Michigan gets two ten yard touchdown drives off

1401
01:08:04,200 --> 01:08:08,040
Speaker 1: Minnesota mistakes. Minnesota's offense comes to life in the second half.

1402
01:08:08,120 --> 01:08:10,560
Speaker 1: They recover an on side kick. The Big ten blows

1403
01:08:10,600 --> 01:08:13,560
Speaker 1: the call. They don't apologize. They come out and say, like,

1404
01:08:13,600 --> 01:08:16,600
Speaker 1: we're gonna change the way that we officiate on sidekicks.

1405
01:08:17,120 --> 01:08:21,280
Speaker 1: Don't be surprised if old mister Fleck gets some calls

1406
01:08:21,320 --> 01:08:24,759
Speaker 1: this week after that debacle. But I think this offense

1407
01:08:24,840 --> 01:08:27,160
Speaker 1: is trending up now. The defense, they're they're great, out

1408
01:08:27,160 --> 01:08:30,559
Speaker 1: elite against the pass, But what do we really know.

1409
01:08:30,680 --> 01:08:34,519
Speaker 1: I mean, who have they faced. Michigan doesn't attempt forward passes.

1410
01:08:35,120 --> 01:08:39,000
Speaker 1: Iowa I can't throw the ball, so you know, they

1411
01:08:39,040 --> 01:08:42,639
Speaker 1: haven't really faced anyone. They I thought they performed pretty

1412
01:08:42,640 --> 01:08:47,120
Speaker 1: well against UNC. While we've seen UNC's offense at times

1413
01:08:47,160 --> 01:08:49,360
Speaker 1: and they have some talent, I do think that the

1414
01:08:49,400 --> 01:08:52,640
Speaker 1: defense overall is coming into the year it's going to

1415
01:08:52,680 --> 01:08:55,400
Speaker 1: be better and give up a fewer busts under Heatherman

1416
01:08:55,479 --> 01:08:59,160
Speaker 1: in a simplified scheme. And the other factor here is

1417
01:08:59,240 --> 01:09:03,280
Speaker 1: that there might be some impactful wins, which will obviously

1418
01:09:03,800 --> 01:09:08,320
Speaker 1: harm USC's more explosive passing attack much more than Minnesota.

1419
01:09:08,479 --> 01:09:11,799
Speaker 1: Minnesota has no explosiveness in the pass sec. It's all short,

1420
01:09:12,320 --> 01:09:15,920
Speaker 1: but that's where you can have success against this USC defense.

1421
01:09:16,000 --> 01:09:17,920
Speaker 1: USC has done a really good job of taking away

1422
01:09:17,960 --> 01:09:22,080
Speaker 1: explosive pass plays that doesn't really matter against Minnesota. You

1423
01:09:22,120 --> 01:09:24,120
Speaker 1: look at like I think USC's like outside the top

1424
01:09:24,200 --> 01:09:27,880
Speaker 1: nineteen pass success rate. They're not really stuffing runs. I

1425
01:09:27,880 --> 01:09:30,280
Speaker 1: think that LSU game was a bit of fool's goal

1426
01:09:30,400 --> 01:09:32,479
Speaker 1: for their run defense, and I do think this USC

1427
01:09:32,600 --> 01:09:35,120
Speaker 1: defense is dress to improved. Don't get me wrong, but

1428
01:09:35,760 --> 01:09:38,160
Speaker 1: the bar was very low, but LSU hasn't been able

1429
01:09:38,160 --> 01:09:39,960
Speaker 1: to run it on anyone. I mean, they've had run

1430
01:09:40,200 --> 01:09:44,080
Speaker 1: struggles all season since they changed their scheme. So I

1431
01:09:44,200 --> 01:09:47,200
Speaker 1: like the Gophers to keep this close potentially pull off

1432
01:09:47,920 --> 01:09:49,160
Speaker 1: the outright upset.

1433
01:09:50,479 --> 01:09:52,759
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, if you don't have a pass rush

1434
01:09:53,000 --> 01:09:54,720
Speaker 2: and you're not going to get any pressure, then Max

1435
01:09:54,760 --> 01:09:56,200
Speaker 2: Brosmer is going to be able to pick a part

1436
01:09:56,200 --> 01:09:58,040
Speaker 2: in short range. And that's what Minnesota wants to do

1437
01:09:58,080 --> 01:10:02,160
Speaker 2: from a passing perspective. I'm going to go Louisiana here

1438
01:10:02,280 --> 01:10:04,519
Speaker 2: on the road for a second consecutive week, taking on

1439
01:10:04,560 --> 01:10:06,960
Speaker 2: a Southern Miss team coming off a bye. They desperately

1440
01:10:07,000 --> 01:10:09,960
Speaker 2: needed a buye. Southern Miss is a disaster right now.

1441
01:10:10,360 --> 01:10:13,000
Speaker 2: Didn't score a point against Kentucky. No shame in that

1442
01:10:13,600 --> 01:10:15,800
Speaker 2: got blown out by South Florida, and then right before

1443
01:10:15,800 --> 01:10:19,280
Speaker 2: the bye Jacksonville State beat them forty four to seven.

1444
01:10:20,000 --> 01:10:22,719
Speaker 2: Even more crazy is what they did in passing plays.

1445
01:10:23,200 --> 01:10:27,080
Speaker 2: Passing downs twenty six percent success rate, passing plays twenty

1446
01:10:27,120 --> 01:10:30,760
Speaker 2: two percent success rate. We're talking some of the most

1447
01:10:30,760 --> 01:10:33,559
Speaker 2: horrific numbers I've ever seen. Available yards is when you

1448
01:10:33,560 --> 01:10:35,320
Speaker 2: get the ball to kickoff and say you have eighty

1449
01:10:35,360 --> 01:10:37,599
Speaker 2: yards to go, how much of a percentage of that

1450
01:10:37,680 --> 01:10:39,599
Speaker 2: you can get? Well, the national average says you should

1451
01:10:39,600 --> 01:10:42,200
Speaker 2: get forty four percent. Southern Miss got less than thirty

1452
01:10:42,240 --> 01:10:45,639
Speaker 2: percent of available yards against Jacksonville State's defense. Now they're

1453
01:10:45,680 --> 01:10:47,720
Speaker 2: going to go and take on a Louisiana team that

1454
01:10:47,800 --> 01:10:50,479
Speaker 2: is absolutely humming from the offensive side of the ball.

1455
01:10:50,880 --> 01:10:54,040
Speaker 2: Ull is number one nationally in quality drives. Did you

1456
01:10:54,080 --> 01:10:56,920
Speaker 2: go fifty yards? Did you last for three minutes in

1457
01:10:57,000 --> 01:10:59,679
Speaker 2: your drive? Did you have a score? They an't stop

1458
01:10:59,680 --> 01:11:01,920
Speaker 2: them so at all. They're always in scoring position. They've

1459
01:11:01,920 --> 01:11:05,280
Speaker 2: had twenty six offensive scores this year. Eighteen of those

1460
01:11:05,320 --> 01:11:07,160
Speaker 2: have been touchdowns. They do not kick a lot of

1461
01:11:07,160 --> 01:11:10,200
Speaker 2: field goals. They are top thirty in offensive finishing drives.

1462
01:11:10,400 --> 01:11:11,599
Speaker 2: When you look at the other side of the ball

1463
01:11:11,600 --> 01:11:13,160
Speaker 2: on the defense for Southern Miss, they're one hundred and

1464
01:11:13,160 --> 01:11:17,320
Speaker 2: twenty second and defensive quality drives. So every Louisiana possession

1465
01:11:17,400 --> 01:11:19,840
Speaker 2: is going to end up in scoring position. Here, Southern

1466
01:11:19,880 --> 01:11:23,280
Speaker 2: Miss can't defend the run. It's their worst aspect of

1467
01:11:23,320 --> 01:11:26,000
Speaker 2: their defense. I'm not sure Ben Woodridge is going to

1468
01:11:26,040 --> 01:11:28,600
Speaker 2: even need to pass, considering they'll probably always be in

1469
01:11:28,640 --> 01:11:32,360
Speaker 2: standard downs for Louisiana, and from a havoc perspective, nobody's

1470
01:11:32,360 --> 01:11:35,960
Speaker 2: going to put their fingers on Louisiana's quarterback Ben Woldridge.

1471
01:11:36,000 --> 01:11:40,040
Speaker 2: So tay Rodamaker running quarterback Harry murral FSU quarterback that

1472
01:11:40,120 --> 01:11:42,520
Speaker 2: was there for the undefeated season. Well, Tate tay Rodemaker

1473
01:11:43,160 --> 01:11:46,679
Speaker 2: is in at quarterback and they're dead last and havoc allowed.

1474
01:11:46,720 --> 01:11:49,200
Speaker 2: The Southern Miss offense is one hundred and thirty fourth

1475
01:11:49,400 --> 01:11:52,839
Speaker 2: trouble is just on them every single step. Seven fumbles

1476
01:11:52,880 --> 01:11:56,479
Speaker 2: so far this season, seven interceptions, thirty tackles for loss allowed.

1477
01:11:56,720 --> 01:11:58,680
Speaker 2: This is a bad news team. I don't care that

1478
01:11:58,680 --> 01:12:00,400
Speaker 2: there was a bye week, and I don't careis is

1479
01:12:00,400 --> 01:12:02,360
Speaker 2: on their second straight road game. This is just bad

1480
01:12:02,439 --> 01:12:05,200
Speaker 2: news for Southern Miss. I'll take Louisiana. I would still

1481
01:12:05,200 --> 01:12:06,640
Speaker 2: buy it at fourteen and a half, but there's a

1482
01:12:06,680 --> 01:12:09,040
Speaker 2: couple of minus one of five's out there. You could

1483
01:12:09,040 --> 01:12:11,280
Speaker 2: get this down to fourteen and play pay my minus

1484
01:12:11,320 --> 01:12:13,519
Speaker 2: one fifteen. So I do like Louisiana. Take them against

1485
01:12:13,520 --> 01:12:15,400
Speaker 2: Southern Miss the end.

1486
01:12:15,800 --> 01:12:19,559
Speaker 1: Maybe me here for old Will Hall. All right, that'll

1487
01:12:19,560 --> 01:12:22,680
Speaker 1: do it for us. Thank you to Colin for joining me,

1488
01:12:22,720 --> 01:12:24,360
Speaker 1: as always, thanks to our producer Mad Mitch on the

1489
01:12:24,360 --> 01:12:26,280
Speaker 1: back end. Most importantly, thanks to all of you for

1490
01:12:26,400 --> 01:12:29,760
Speaker 1: tuning in. You know the Drell. Subscribe, unsubscribe, subscribe to

1491
01:12:29,800 --> 01:12:32,360
Speaker 1: a friend, telling enemy, leave a five star review, we

1492
01:12:32,400 --> 01:12:34,160
Speaker 1: always do a bunch of giveaways. Well you can do something. Now.

1493
01:12:34,160 --> 01:12:36,040
Speaker 1: Here's our producer with a list of some of you

1494
01:12:36,080 --> 01:12:38,639
Speaker 1: who left reviews. And if you haven't already, or if

1495
01:12:38,640 --> 01:12:40,200
Speaker 1: you haven't you want to grab someone else's phone, just

1496
01:12:40,200 --> 01:12:42,920
Speaker 1: do that and we'll get you out some gear. Do

1497
01:12:43,040 --> 01:12:43,559
Speaker 1: appreciate that.

1498
01:12:44,680 --> 01:12:48,240
Speaker 3: Thank you, Stucky, and thank you to everyone who gave

1499
01:12:48,320 --> 01:12:51,840
Speaker 3: us a five star rating and review on Apple Podcasts.

1500
01:12:52,479 --> 01:12:57,120
Speaker 3: This week's nine winners are Money Inc. MVP one two

1501
01:12:57,160 --> 01:13:03,000
Speaker 3: three three, vimy Cuzava, MDB seventy one, sixty nine to one,

1502
01:13:03,520 --> 01:13:08,479
Speaker 3: td UB thirty one thirty one. We got Bill Hounds,

1503
01:13:09,000 --> 01:13:13,639
Speaker 3: ut Ren, Surf City Tim and j Man Mets Fan.

1504
01:13:14,479 --> 01:13:19,280
Speaker 3: Thank you again. Email me at podcasts at actionnetwork dot

1505
01:13:19,320 --> 01:13:22,479
Speaker 3: com to claim your prize. Thanks for listening.

1506
01:13:22,760 --> 01:13:25,759
Speaker 1: Eat them upcats, Good luck on all of your wages

1507
01:13:25,800 --> 01:13:29,799
Speaker 1: this weekend. Cannot wait for the action to start fifty

1508
01:13:29,840 --> 01:13:32,519
Speaker 1: five days straight for football, catch all, aer juice.

1509
01:13:32,680 --> 01:13:44,720
Speaker 2: Peace Out. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1510
01:13:45,120 --> 01:13:48,080
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1511
01:13:48,240 --> 01:13:50,840
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1512
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Speaker 1: hundred Gambler