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Speaker 1: The most valuable commandity I know of his information.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree on five dollars?

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Speaker 3: This is a rat up cowboy tackle ship one man.

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Speaker 3: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable,

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Speaker 3: humans need fantasy to be human. My goodness, that's good.

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Speaker 4: I suppose the best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn babeles.

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Speaker 3: What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 4: Chris Raybon, here with my dude, my colleague, and the

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Speaker 4: number one rancor on Fantasy Pros over the last three years,

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Speaker 4: Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 3: So, Sean, congratulations on that. What's going on?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: Thanks, but that was that was surprising to see. I mean,

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Speaker 5: I finished sixteenth last year, but it's good to see that,

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Speaker 5: you know, over the past pre seasons, I came out

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Speaker 5: on top. So love seeing all the hard work payoffs.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the standard deviation is low. We like it, We

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Speaker 3: like exactly.

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Speaker 4: But I'm also excited for you guys out there because

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Speaker 4: you know, if you're if you followed me, if you've

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Speaker 4: been following me, you know that I used to do

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Speaker 4: a podcast for DFS MVP and my co host on

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Speaker 4: that podcast is our guest today. He is the director

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Speaker 4: of DFS for four for four still host the DFS

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Speaker 4: MVP podcast. We got TJ Hernandez in the house.

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Speaker 1: TJ.

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Speaker 3: What's going on? Yeah, yeah, what's up?

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Speaker 2: Guys. Happy to be here, like always excited to talk

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Speaker 2: about some tight ends today. And damn, I guess we're

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Speaker 2: kind of kicking off August first, really just kicking off

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Speaker 2: fantasy season today.

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Speaker 4: Oh yeah, we got you know, we got the Deshaun

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Speaker 4: Watson suspension news today, which people seem to think was

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Speaker 4: too enient, but you know, the six games, so yeah,

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Speaker 4: it feels like we're back.

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Speaker 3: You know, training camps are full of fact.

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Speaker 4: We're getting those you know, day by day beat reports

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Speaker 4: now which I love to read and see what's going on.

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Speaker 4: So O game game this week? Yup, Hall of Fame

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Speaker 4: game coming up. So yeah, this should be a good show.

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Speaker 4: That's DJ mentioned. We'll talk tight ends, we'll go through

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Speaker 4: the top twelve and ADP. We'll talk a little bit about,

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Speaker 4: you know, anyone we like outside of there as well

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Speaker 4: before we jump in. Our contest winner for this week,

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Speaker 4: who gets a free year of action pro is Dan Franchised.

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Speaker 3: Thanks Dan for the review.

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Speaker 4: Shouts to you for avoiding that steak on Barkley Landmine

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Speaker 4: last season. Hit up podcast at actionnetwork dot com to

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Speaker 4: claim your free year of Action Pro which comes with

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Speaker 4: our weekly rankings and all that good stuff. And for

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Speaker 4: all you listening out here, if you appreciate the pot,

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Speaker 4: if you enjoy the pod, go to Apple weave us

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Speaker 4: a review. We'll pick our favorite five star review each

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Speaker 4: week to give you a free year of Action Pro.

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Speaker 4: So get on that. We're gonna get on to tight

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Speaker 4: Ends and TJ. I want to start before we jump

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Speaker 4: into each player each tight end, I just want to

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Speaker 4: ask you, Like DFS, I feel like we often tend

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Speaker 4: to kind of find ourselves following what's called the Barbell

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Speaker 4: strategy at tight end, which you're either paying up for

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Speaker 4: a stud whoever has the best matchup or the you

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Speaker 4: know stud with the best value that week, or you're

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Speaker 4: paying way down and looking for a discount. Do you

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Speaker 4: think that strategy translates to kind of traditional and redraft

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Speaker 4: fantasy this year, where it's like stud or weight or

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Speaker 4: you're taking a different broach.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think from a traditional redraft perspective, like historically,

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Speaker 2: or when I say historically, I mean recent history, we've

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Speaker 2: seen some of the biggest positional advantage come from early

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Speaker 2: round tight ends, and that's been weighted by guys like

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Speaker 2: Kelsey and Gronka. And you could say that, you know,

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Speaker 2: you're not going to have those guys every year, but

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Speaker 2: like that type of tight end is really not just

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Speaker 2: dominate the real NFL, but can dominate fantasy. And I

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Speaker 2: think when we're talking about redraft, nine point nine percent

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Speaker 2: of people that are playing redraft are playing in home leagues.

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Speaker 2: So I actually think that if you're playing in your

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Speaker 2: regular home league that the advantage there can actually be

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Speaker 2: amplified because not only can you get a dominant player

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Speaker 2: at tight end at a position that that that you

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Speaker 2: can really separate yourself from the field, but in your

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Speaker 2: home league, if you're listening to a podcast like this,

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Speaker 2: you're probably well ahead of the field in terms of

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Speaker 2: player projections, in terms of getting value other positions. So

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Speaker 2: I think it's a really good way to dominate your

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Speaker 2: draft from from beginning to end. Now, if you get

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Speaker 2: in some of our you know, expert leagues or whatnot,

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Speaker 2: that might vary a little bit, but for the average listener,

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Speaker 2: I think it's I really trend towards that Barbell strategy

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Speaker 2: where if I don't get those guys, there is that

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Speaker 2: big dead zone and I would rather end up streaming

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Speaker 2: throughout the season or something like that.

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Speaker 1: That.

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Speaker 2: Especially this year, I think it's a tight end as

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Speaker 2: we say deep, I mean that's not like tight end

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Speaker 2: one upside, but usable weeks, I think it's a little

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Speaker 2: bit deeper this year.

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Speaker 4: Gone you know, today's point he kind of alluded to,

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Speaker 4: you know, feeling like he has the confidence to you know,

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Speaker 4: you know, take that stud early and still be able

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Speaker 4: to kind of build around that. And I know something

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Speaker 4: that's something you talk about as well, is like you

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Speaker 4: feel confident in your ability to draft even if you

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Speaker 4: are going and taking you know, a onesie position early.

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Speaker 3: So is what kind of approach are you taking at

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Speaker 3: tight end this year?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So it's similar this year where I think, you know,

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Speaker 5: getting one of these top two tight ends gives you

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Speaker 5: a pretty big leg up against the field. The drop

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Speaker 5: off between say Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts at time

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Speaker 5: three is the biggest drop off at any single position.

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Speaker 5: So I think it is important, you know, if you

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Speaker 5: can to get one of those top two. But I

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Speaker 5: have to say like if you have if you're in

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Speaker 5: a twelve team league and you have picked one through six,

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Speaker 5: you're not getting either tight end because A it's probably

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Speaker 5: to really to take either one of them and be

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Speaker 5: none of them are going to make it back. So

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Speaker 5: my tight end strategy depends on what draft slot you get,

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Speaker 5: and I just let the position come to me. Sometimes

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Speaker 5: you can get a guy that falls way too far

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Speaker 5: and you're a spot you know with your roster Bilbert,

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Speaker 5: You're like, Okay, I'm going to take a stab on

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Speaker 5: this tight end, and I say go for it. But

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Speaker 5: you know, TJ mentioned that dead zone. I think it

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Speaker 5: is important to mention that once you get outside say

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Speaker 5: the top six or seven tight ends, you really just

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Speaker 5: drafting guys that are sitting on top of like a

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Speaker 5: massive waiver wire tier where we're going to see two

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Speaker 5: to three tight ends emerge as every week. You know,

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Speaker 5: tight end ones. Last season it was you know, Dalton Schultz,

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Speaker 5: zach Ertz, even Pat Fryarmouth at one point became a

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Speaker 5: legit tight end one. So I think that if you

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Speaker 5: do draft in that range, don't feel so attached to

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Speaker 5: those guys that you just hang on to them, you know,

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Speaker 5: for the first seven weeks. If there's a better option

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Speaker 5: out there, go for it. And we said that last

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Speaker 5: year it was I think it was noahfan Logan Thomas

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Speaker 5: and Robert Tanyan. We were like, if you if you

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Speaker 5: do draft those guys, they're going where they should, but

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Speaker 5: don't be too attached, you know, don't be afraid to

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Speaker 5: kind of go that's the hot guy at the beginning

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Speaker 5: of the season because we're really trying to get one

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Speaker 5: of those league winning tight end ones that are always

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Speaker 5: on the waiver war to beginning of the season.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you know you mentioned that drop off

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Speaker 4: between Andrews and Kyle Pitts tight end two to three.

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Speaker 4: I think you know there's also like that dead zone

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Speaker 4: really for me starts a tight end six. You know,

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Speaker 4: even if you know projection wise, yes, there's a drop

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Speaker 4: off between Andrews and Pits, But I think you know

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Speaker 4: the floor is still high enough for Pitts coming off

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Speaker 4: of a thousand yard rookie season at tight end, and

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Speaker 4: the ceiling is pretty high too, just because of the

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Speaker 4: talent and because he could still be you know, that

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Speaker 4: number one target in Atlanta even with Drake London there.

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Speaker 3: But after you know Kittle Waller, you know.

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Speaker 4: That's when you start getting into that next gear of

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Speaker 4: Hockinson and Schultz and got it, and there's just not

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Speaker 4: as many guarantees there floor wise, I think, you know,

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Speaker 4: And I think that's where I feel like I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: get into more trouble. So that's, yeah, that's kind of

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Speaker 4: my dead zone where I'm usually starting to wait once

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Speaker 4: I get past that top five. But let's jump right

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Speaker 4: into We'll go player by player as we've been doing

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Speaker 4: on these episodes. Also should mention that we already have

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Speaker 4: two quarterback episodes out, one with the with the great

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Speaker 4: JJ Zacharison talking about late round quarterbacks in the mixture.

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Speaker 4: You check those out as well. But Travis Kelsey, he's

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Speaker 4: a tight end one, TJ. I feel like I have

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Speaker 4: two questions for you on Kelsey. It's like, does he

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Speaker 4: have his highest feeling ever now that Tyreek is gone?

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Speaker 4: But also does he have his lowest floor ever because

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Speaker 4: he's he is thirty three?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he definitely has his Another way to

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Speaker 2: favorite question, why this range of outcomes that we've seen

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Speaker 2: in a very long time, right, I Mean the obvious

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Speaker 2: one is he's tied to Patrick Mahomes. The target volume

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Speaker 2: has been there consistently and should be there, if not

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Speaker 2: even more this year. From the age model. I don't

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Speaker 2: think somebody that's as good as Kelsey. I just want

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Speaker 2: to blindly throw the age model at him. But he

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Speaker 2: did have his lowest yards perrout one since Sports Info

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Speaker 2: Solutions started try back in twenty sixteen, dropped down to

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Speaker 2: two yards peraut one. That was still top six among

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Speaker 2: tight ends, but not up to that like two point

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Speaker 2: seven two point eight yards Perrott when we've seen the

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Speaker 2: last couple years. I'm still willing to bet on Kelsey

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Speaker 2: in this offense. And when we're poking holes in Kelsey,

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Speaker 2: I don't think we're necessarily poking holes relative to the

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Speaker 2: other tight ends, like he's the tight end one, tight

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Speaker 2: end two, Like like Sean said, it's more of are

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Speaker 2: you poking holes in taking him? At the one two turn?

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Speaker 2: It's a cost thing for Kelsey, right, And when I'm

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Speaker 2: looking at Kelsey, I'm looking at him, He's kind of

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Speaker 2: going like it's it's the big decision for me has

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Speaker 2: been between him, DeVante Adams Joe Mixon. Kind of at

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Speaker 2: that turn, I still like Kelsey over DeVante Adams. Like,

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Speaker 2: if I'm just if I could take a player ahead

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Speaker 2: of him kind of right there, it would be DeAndre

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Speaker 2: Swifter Aaron Jones, but I could take Kelsey and usually

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Speaker 2: still get them coming back. So I'm overall, I'm pretty

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Speaker 2: comfortable with Kelsey at his price, especially because like that turn,

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Speaker 2: I think you could go a lot of and put

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Speaker 2: quite a few holes. So I'm going to bet on

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Speaker 2: the situation and that he has at least one more

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Speaker 2: year in him.

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Speaker 4: So what about you, I mean, we talked about kind

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Speaker 4: of range of outcomes, and I know you you've kind

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Speaker 4: of specialized in in a median projection, so you know,

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Speaker 4: I know the range of outcomes are wider, but are

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Speaker 4: you still landing on kind of a similar median.

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Speaker 3: That that that you have these past few years.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, And just piggybacking what TJ just ended on is

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Speaker 5: that I think Kelsey has one more elite season in him.

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Speaker 5: I mean, he's thirty three, he's obviously in the declining

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Speaker 5: phase of his career, but he's not washed quite yet.

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Speaker 5: And plus we have to remember he's still playing for

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Speaker 5: arguably the best quarterback in the league, who is just

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Speaker 5: now entering his prime at twenty six years old, So

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Speaker 5: I think we have to also factor in that Mahomes

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Speaker 5: is still ascending in his you know, age curve, so

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Speaker 5: I think that does help offset Kelsey a little bit. So, yeah,

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Speaker 5: we're splitting. Here's here trying to figure out whether it

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Speaker 5: should be Kelse or Andrews first. I haven't projected right

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Speaker 5: around the same So I think that, you know, Kelsey

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Speaker 5: should probably be the first tight end off the board,

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Speaker 5: and then Andrews should go almost immediately after that. So

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Speaker 5: I love, you know, getting Andrews a little bit later,

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Speaker 5: but I wouldn't fall anybody for taking Kelsey first because

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Speaker 5: without Tyreek Hill, I mean, his target ceiling is still massive.

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Speaker 5: I'm not worried about Oh, defenses will be able to

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Speaker 5: double team him. That doesn't really work either. So I

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Speaker 5: think that Kelsey's going to have one more elite season

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Speaker 5: and then maybe next year. You can get me to

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Speaker 5: talk about Kelsey possibly being in declined.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's for me.

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Speaker 4: It's you know, I don't mind him there either around

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Speaker 4: that turn spot. You know, if certain other players are there,

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Speaker 4: especially running backs like TJ. You mentioned DeAndre Swift, Joe

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Speaker 4: Mixing sometimes falls there.

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Speaker 3: You know, I do think it's important.

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Speaker 4: I think tight ends and running backs both are important

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Speaker 4: to get a little earlier. I think wide receivers you

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Speaker 4: can really start attacking in you know, rounds like three, four,

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Speaker 4: five and still end up with three very solid wide receivers. So,

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Speaker 4: you know, if you're at that back half of the draft,

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Speaker 4: I do think there's you know, it's worth taking Kelsey,

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Speaker 4: Whereas if you're at the front half, you know, Kelsey's

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Speaker 4: fourteenth overall in ADP in half PPR, whereas Mark Andrews

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Speaker 4: is twenty third. So being at that back half sometimes

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Speaker 4: or you know, being at the front of the draft

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Speaker 4: on that comeback depending, you know you might still be

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Speaker 4: able to get Andrews a little bit later. So I

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Speaker 4: think that's how I'm kind of going about it. And

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Speaker 4: then you know, if I can't get one of those,

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Speaker 4: I really still do want to get, you know, one

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Speaker 4: of the top five guys.

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Speaker 3: But Mark Andrews number two.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Tj'll asked you this, like, can he top

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Speaker 4: last season numbers now that he, like Hollywood Brown is

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Speaker 4: not there anymore, and that wide receiving cord has taken

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Speaker 4: a step back, even if for Shaan Bateman makes a

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Speaker 4: year to leap. I think it's hard to argue that

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Speaker 4: it's not weaker than it was a year ago. So

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Speaker 4: you know, can Andrews hop last year's numbers or is

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Speaker 4: is the Baltimore defense is going to be too good

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Speaker 4: for that even to matter.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, to top his numbers, you would have

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Speaker 2: to kind of double down on multiple outlier things happening.

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Speaker 2: I mean, even though Hollywood is gone, the competing force

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Speaker 2: there is that the Ravens, for what they've done with Lamar,

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Speaker 2: historically had an outlierer in terms of passing volume, and

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Speaker 2: a lot of that had to do with Lamar being

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Speaker 2: out right. So he Andrews had a twenty six twenty

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Speaker 2: seven percent target share in a offense that was uncharacteristically

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Speaker 2: pass heavy for the Ravens, and his target share has

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Speaker 2: always been dominant even with Hollywood Brown there like that

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Speaker 2: twenty six percent range, but his targets per game went

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Speaker 2: six point five, six point three and then jumped all

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Speaker 2: the way up to nine. So for him to keep

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Speaker 2: that nine targets per game, you're going to either need

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Speaker 2: to see his target share increase to like thirty percent,

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Speaker 2: which we just don't see from the tight end position.

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Speaker 2: That's reserved for like only Devonte Adams, or they're going

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Speaker 2: to maintain that passing volume, which I think is pretty unlikely.

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Speaker 2: So I think the most likely scenario is that his

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Speaker 2: target volume drops off a little bit, Like I don't

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Speaker 2: think it's going to go back down to sub one

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Speaker 2: hundred like we saw the two years previous, even though

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Speaker 2: he did miss those games, but he's going to need

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Speaker 2: to maintain that fairly high touchdown rate that he has

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Speaker 2: had with Lamar Jackson. All that being said, I mean again,

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Speaker 2: we're kind of like looking to Poke Holls and Mark Andrews.

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Speaker 2: He's going twenty third, twenty fourth overall and consistuc ADP.

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Speaker 2: I think that's a fantastic value considering the fact that

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Speaker 2: we just said we're not sure if he or Kelsey

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Speaker 2: are the one or two. So if I'm deciding like

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Speaker 2: where I want to be in terms of the ability

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Speaker 2: to get these two guys, I would rather be at

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Speaker 2: the front part of the draft be able to get

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Speaker 2: Andrews coming back, than be at the back half of

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Speaker 2: that draft to kind of have to make that decision

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Speaker 2: with Kelsey. I love the front half of the draft

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Speaker 2: because you can start like a CMC Andrews start is crazy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well CM season, I mean, people are sleeping on SMC.

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Speaker 4: But that's the whole another discussion, Sean, you know, kind

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Speaker 4: speaking on with DJ said, I mean, you know there

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Speaker 4: are there is some question about, you know, whether Andrews

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Speaker 4: should be one. I think for me, it's just it

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Speaker 4: comes down to the fact that I think we can,

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Speaker 4: as TJ kind of mentioned, project the Chiefs for more

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Speaker 4: volume passing wise.

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Speaker 3: Than the Ravens. I think that's a pretty fair bet.

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Speaker 4: But you know, I'm curious to you said, there's a

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Speaker 4: big drop off for you after Andrews. What is kind

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Speaker 4: of the difference in Fantasy points per game that you're

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Speaker 4: projecting between Kelsey and Andrews.

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Speaker 5: Oh, I have them almost identical, So I literally mean this.

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Speaker 5: I have them ranked exactly the same. So that's why

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Speaker 5: I prefer getting Andrews at the end of the second round.

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Speaker 5: If I already get in there, I'd be ecstatic. But

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Speaker 5: you know, he's always been sort of a volatile, kind

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Speaker 5: of inconsistent tight end where we're just you know, we're

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Speaker 5: gonna have spiked weeks, of course, but last season he

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Speaker 5: was much more consistent. He rarely put up a dud.

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Speaker 5: In fact, he only had two games with fewer than

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Speaker 5: four receptions. Each of those games he had free receptions,

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Speaker 5: so he never had a game below three. So I mean,

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Speaker 5: he's just a really high floor, high ceiling guy now,

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Speaker 5: and I think the sneaky angle, I would say he

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Speaker 5: has a higher floor than Kelsey is he as of

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Speaker 5: last season, we found out that he's QB proof because

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Speaker 5: when Tyler Huntley was in the game, he was even better.

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Speaker 5: So if Lamar Jackson were in this time, I mean,

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Speaker 5: he's still going to be a top two tight endi projections.

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Speaker 5: But imagine if Patrick mahols Mith's time and they have

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Speaker 5: whoever the hell they have there is is Chad Henny,

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Speaker 5: Like I mean, Travis Kelcey might drop outside of my

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Speaker 5: top four. So I think that just when you consider

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Speaker 5: that Andrews probably has the higher floor.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, last year, Andrews ran a route on an average

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Speaker 4: of eighty four percent of dropbacks per game. Kelsey was

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Speaker 4: at eighty five percent. But pj's you kind of alluded to,

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Speaker 4: Andrews has tends to have the superior like per route numbers.

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Speaker 4: He you know, he gets targeted on an extremely ridiculous

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Speaker 4: basis per route like it's it's you. Like he's mentioned

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Speaker 4: a thirty percent target chair. He might not get that,

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Speaker 4: but per route he does.

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Speaker 3: Like per route he.

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Speaker 4: Gets targeted like thirty percent of time or more, so

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Speaker 4: I could see the argument for it. I do have

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Speaker 4: Kelsey ranked number one just because again I do have

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Speaker 4: a pretty significant difference in the past volume between the

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Speaker 4: Chiefs and the Ravens, which is.

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Speaker 3: Enough for me to still have Chelsey number one.

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Speaker 4: But I agree with you guys in terms of if

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Speaker 4: I'm drafting, I'd rather have that front half spot, get

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Speaker 4: get a running back with no questions, and then get

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Speaker 4: and try to get Andrews coming back. How pits Yeah,

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Speaker 4: I mean one touchdown, one touchdown, like damn that that hurt.

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Speaker 4: But he got the thousand yards in year one, which

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Speaker 4: is amazing for its tight end. So TJ, you know,

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Speaker 4: I know you talk a lot about touchdown regression, so

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Speaker 4: I'm curious to hear, like, are you projecting some of that,

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Speaker 4: you know, one of fourteen in terms of touchdowns two

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Speaker 4: red zone targets last year, or or because I think

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Speaker 4: the other side of that is could regress, but positively,

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Speaker 4: I mean, but at the same time, there's no Matt

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Speaker 4: Ryan there, It could be Mariota, could be Ritter.

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Speaker 3: We could see a decrease in past volume and efficiency.

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Speaker 4: So kind of how you kind of take it all

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Speaker 4: that into account in terms of what you're projecting for

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Speaker 4: Pitts this upcoming season.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not like he is due for crazy touchdown aggression.

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Speaker 2: He was only his expected touchdown was only like four

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Speaker 2: to four and a half touchdowns because Atlanta's offense was

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Speaker 2: pretty bad last year. So even if he scored as expected,

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Speaker 2: he would have only finished as a tight end four.

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Speaker 2: That's still a really good finish. His expectations were crazy

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Speaker 2: last year. I'm really interested to see what Sean has

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Speaker 2: to said, because four to four agrees with him that

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Speaker 2: from a median projection standpoint, there is a crazy drop

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Speaker 2: off to the tight end three. But we just haven't

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Speaker 2: seen a tight end like Kyle Pitts maybe ever, only

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Speaker 2: rookie tight end since the mergers to get in one

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Speaker 2: thousand yards just the third to exceed one hundred targets.

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Speaker 2: And the Falcons, even though they're going to see a

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Speaker 2: drop off at quarterback, forty one percent of their targets

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Speaker 2: from last year are up for grabs. They do have

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Speaker 2: depending where you look at the lowest or the second

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Speaker 2: lowest win total of any team, So they should be

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Speaker 2: in a lot of very past heavy situations. And we

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Speaker 2: talked about like Mark Andrews maybe not reaching that thirty

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Speaker 2: percent target share. Kyle Pitts is in a situation where

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Speaker 2: he could be like twenty seven twenty nine percent target share,

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Speaker 2: and he's so good. We see players in these situations

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Speaker 2: have the have these like outlier touchdown share seasons where

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Speaker 2: like even if the Falcons only throw for say twenty

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Speaker 2: five touchdowns, he can be so dominant in this offense

403
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Speaker 2: and he could pull down like a forty percent touchdown share.

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Speaker 2: So going as what thirty six in consensus ADP, in

405
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Speaker 2: the right draft, he's going to fall the forty that

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Speaker 2: three four turn. He's actually my favorite pick in the

407
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Speaker 2: first four rounds right now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm kind of excited about Kyle Pitts.

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Speaker 4: Due I do recognize that there is still a floor

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Speaker 4: if you hear, but I am excited about because I

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Speaker 4: think he has crazy upside. But Tom, what do you think?

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Speaker 4: I know kind of talk about that drop off and

413
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Speaker 4: like where is it? Where exactly is that drop off

414
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Speaker 4: coming from? Is it the is it the touchdowns. Is

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Speaker 4: it the volume compared to the Mark Andrews.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, let.

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Speaker 5: Me just first say this, the talent, the drop off

418
00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,440
Speaker 5: is not due to talent. It's purely due to the

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00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:03,119
Speaker 5: situation surrounding Kyle Pitts. Let's be straight about that. But

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Speaker 5: you know, he saw six end zone targets last season,

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Speaker 5: which we would typically expect, you know, two and a

422
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,959
Speaker 5: half touchdowns from that kind of usage. So while he

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Speaker 5: should see some significant positive touchdown aggression, I don't think

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Speaker 5: he's gonna be you know, double digits at least this

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Speaker 5: point in his career. He's probably gonna need a better quarterback,

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Speaker 5: a better system. So I haven't projected right around five

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Speaker 5: right now. Certainly he has the talent to exceed that.

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Speaker 5: He he can make Marcus Meritta or Desmond Rider a

429
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Speaker 5: better quarterback. So I think he still does have a

430
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Speaker 5: high ceiling. But just based on this offense heading in

431
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Speaker 5: the season, I'm only projecting them for around twenty one

432
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Speaker 5: passing touchdowns, so there just isn't that many to go around.

433
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Speaker 5: But you know, when it comes to receptions yards, obviously

434
00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:49,080
Speaker 5: he has a massive ceiling, and I kind of hope

435
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 5: that Marcus Meretta is the quarterback because he did have

436
00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:54,439
Speaker 5: a connection with Delaney Walker back in the day and

437
00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 5: the first you know, first two seasons of Mario's career,

438
00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:00,080
Speaker 5: he threw six touchdowns and seven touchdowns Delaney Walker the

439
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 5: first two seasons, so he has had a tendency to

440
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 5: kind of lean on a tight end in the red zone.

441
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:08,960
Speaker 5: So I think Marriotta would help Pitts upside over Ritter.

442
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,359
Speaker 5: But we'll risby scene. But I still think that Kyle Pits,

443
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 5: without a doubt, should be the tight end free. But

444
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:18,360
Speaker 5: I do have a pretty significant drop off between Andrews

445
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 5: and him.

446
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 2: The one crazy wrench in Kyle Pits right now that

447
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:24,679
Speaker 2: that just came up today is they're talking about like

448
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 2: Calvin Ridley trying to figure out a way to get

449
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 2: back on the field and lieu of Deshaun watson shorts suspension.

450
00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 2: I don't know if there's any like, if there's any

451
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 2: way that happens this year, But if we start hearing

452
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,359
Speaker 2: somehow that Calvin Ridley is coming back this year, that

453
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 2: that would make it super interesting.

454
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 4: It would because I think on one hand, it probably

455
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 4: would help Pits in the sense of, like the defense

456
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 4: can't focus in only on him and maybe they'd even

457
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:51,560
Speaker 4: pass a little more with than without. Yeah, but yeah,

458
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:53,479
Speaker 4: it certainly would be interesting. I mean, ultimately, I think

459
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 4: that would probably hurt Drake London the most because people,

460
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 4: you know, we're drafting him like the number one. But yeah,

461
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:00,919
Speaker 4: I think, you know, Pitts has this crazy upside of

462
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 4: like we've never really seen this kind of production out

463
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 4: of a tight endy year one and he had thirty

464
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 4: four percent of his route he was lined up on

465
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,600
Speaker 4: as a wide receiver. That was six percent more than

466
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,120
Speaker 4: like any other tight end last year. So only only

467
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 4: tight end a clear thirty percent of of wide snap.

468
00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 2: So there is the second one.

469
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's at twenty nine, so five percent question five

470
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 4: percent he was at twenty nine. But yeah, there's the

471
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,680
Speaker 4: certainly we just don't have another tight end like this guy.

472
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 4: I think that helps the floor a little bit when

473
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 4: you're you're you're kind of more like a wide receiver.

474
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:36,120
Speaker 4: But I think he's a great like fallback option if

475
00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:37,960
Speaker 4: you can't get Kelsey, you're in the back half of

476
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 4: the draft. You know, Pitts is going thirty fifth. That's

477
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,400
Speaker 4: one spot before the you know the three four turn

478
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 4: in in twelve seen weeks. So if you go like

479
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 4: running back, running back with the first picks or running

480
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:50,639
Speaker 4: back wide receiver, you can still get Kyle Pitts, you know,

481
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,359
Speaker 4: if you're at that back half, you know, late third.

482
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 4: So UH have no issue with taking a beer. All right,

483
00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 4: Let's move on to the tight end for George Kittle.

484
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:04,120
Speaker 4: Last year he posted his lowest receptions per game five

485
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 4: point one and yards per game sixty five since his

486
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 4: rookie year, DJ Should we expect more of the same

487
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,440
Speaker 4: like as we saw last year going from Jimmy g

488
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,680
Speaker 4: to Prey Lance. Do you think it gets even worse

489
00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 4: or do you think it gets you know, Lance actually

490
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:18,200
Speaker 4: improves it or how are you looking it down?

491
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 2: I think it could be pretty similar to what we

492
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 2: saw last year. It's a very very small sample. We

493
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 2: only saw them start one game together. George Kittle didn't

494
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,120
Speaker 2: play in one of Trey Lenz's starts, but in that

495
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 2: week seventeen game, he only saw two targets. Out of

496
00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 2: Trey Lance's seventy one targets, only four of them went

497
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 2: to Kittle. Obviously, that could change a lot. Kittle is

498
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 2: one of the best tight ends talent wise in the league.

499
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:44,359
Speaker 2: But they also just resigned Deebo. I think Brandon Ayock

500
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 2: is a lot better than a lot of people give

501
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 2: him credit for My concern with Kittle and just kind

502
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 2: of the forty nine ers past catchers in general debos

503
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 2: different because they were gonna use him. But Kittle and

504
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 2: Ayuk is that I think there is a scenario where

505
00:23:56,200 --> 00:24:00,159
Speaker 2: San Francisco is very twenty twenty one Eagles esque in

506
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 2: that we like Trey Lance because he can be a

507
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 2: very valuable fantasy asset. And I think people might jump

508
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 2: into August and see that people like us have been

509
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 2: moving Trey Lance up our draft boards, that they just

510
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 2: officially announced that he is their number one guy. But

511
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 2: I think in terms of a passing game, there could

512
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 2: be some some growing page Traie Lance could run a lot.

513
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 2: He's probably going to be able to put it on

514
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 2: these receivers. I you can DeVoe deep, but I think

515
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 2: in terms of passing volume and passing efficiency, this offense

516
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,159
Speaker 2: could struggle a little bit from a pass catcher standpoint.

517
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 2: I think Lance is going to pay off as ADP,

518
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 2: but that doesn't necessarily mean that all the pass catchers will.

519
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 4: Sean what are you thinking with George Kittle here? Like,

520
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 4: how is your how did your projected change? You know,

521
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:42,040
Speaker 4: now now he's going to trade Lance.

522
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, I mean I've been an of the oppression

523
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 5: that Lance has been starting pretty much the whole offseason now.

524
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:51,399
Speaker 5: But Kittle, he's a bit dicey at tight end four.

525
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 5: You know, his problem is he's a good blocker, which

526
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 5: a lot of these tight ends don't have that issue.

527
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,119
Speaker 5: So sometimes he can stay in and block before he

528
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,439
Speaker 5: releases and go goes out for route, so that that

529
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,959
Speaker 5: can hurt his target shair a bit. And just you know,

530
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 5: if Trey Lance under center DJ are you mentioned it, Like,

531
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,400
Speaker 5: they're gonna be much more run heavy. And you know,

532
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,639
Speaker 5: the one sample size we have he got, you know,

533
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 5: one catch for twenty nine yards, which isn't great. I'm

534
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 5: not gonna overweight that of course, but still like the

535
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,640
Speaker 5: overall volume of this passing attack will be down this year,

536
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 5: so that's gonna hurt Kittle for sure. So I'd rather

537
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 5: just wait and take like Darren Waller if he's gonna

538
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,160
Speaker 5: be there at tight end five, because again there's gonna

539
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 5: be another mass to've drop off after this mini you

540
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 5: know three tight end tier is off the board, So

541
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 5: I would typically wait until the whoever is available at

542
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:42,120
Speaker 5: number five.

543
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 4: And at number five that is Darren Waller, and you

544
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:46,919
Speaker 4: know last year, I mean he's kind of you know,

545
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 4: he posted three year lows in receptions per game at

546
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 4: five and yards per game at.

547
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 3: Sixty and a half last year. You know, are you expecting.

548
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,919
Speaker 4: Another dip DJ with you know, Devonte Adams now in

549
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 4: the fold as well, Can that, you know, the likely

550
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,199
Speaker 4: dip of volume be off set by you know, an

551
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:04,679
Speaker 4: efficiency increase because Adams would take some of the pressure

552
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 4: off Waller.

553
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:09,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean obviously not just Davante there, but also

554
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 2: new new coach and Josh McDaniels can really shape this up.

555
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 2: I think if there is a player that suffers the

556
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 2: most volume wise, it's probably Hunter Renfro. I think Darren

557
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 2: Waller could at least maintain his work from last year,

558
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 2: and Davonta Adams is Davonte Adams. The Raiders are a

559
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 2: team that I've just been trepidacious about all year because

560
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 2: probably just because I can't really figure them out. They're

561
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 2: the only team that I've drafted less players than through

562
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 2: fifty Best Balmania drafts is the Giants. The problem is, like,

563
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 2: even if they're fantastic. The ceiling for this passing game

564
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 2: for Derek Carr is like Kirk Cousins the last two years. Right,

565
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:48,439
Speaker 2: So if there's thirty two or thirty three touchdowns to

566
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 2: go around, if I'm drafting Waller as a tight end

567
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 2: five in the fifth or sixth round, I like want

568
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 2: some kind of upside in terms of like I don't

569
00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 2: know a tight end two finished tighten three finished breaks, right,

570
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 2: and I just don't know if that's there with Davonte

571
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 2: Adams in town. So I like Waller form like a

572
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 2: standalone perspective. I think he can be fine, but I

573
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 2: still think the price is just like a little bit

574
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 2: too much for me in this price range, I'd rather

575
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 2: be taking a lot of wide receivers. Really, I just

576
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 2: head over him. That's why it's been harsh for me

577
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 2: to take him.

578
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's tough. You know, he's going You're right

579
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 4: there at the you know, forty eight, that's the end

580
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 4: of the fourth.

581
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 3: Like I said, I don't, I kind of I'm with

582
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:27,880
Speaker 3: sewn on this one.

583
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 4: Is like whoever gets to me between Waller and Kiddle, Like,

584
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 4: I still do go for those guys because I feel

585
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 4: like there's an even bigger drop off coming, whereas wide

586
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 4: receiver I think kind of evens out a little bit

587
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 4: more in those in those middle rounds. But John is

588
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 4: that kind of where you're at as well. Just you know,

589
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 4: if Waller is there instead of Kiddle, you're like okay

590
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:46,720
Speaker 4: with him.

591
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, That's exactly how I describe it. And let me

592
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,119
Speaker 5: just go back to what I said originally, this is

593
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 5: a position I just like come to me. So I'm

594
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:56,719
Speaker 5: not going in and staying like I'm gonna draft Waller at

595
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 5: tight end five, just like if the situation presents itself

596
00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 5: and he fell a little bit too far, there is

597
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,159
Speaker 5: such a big drop off that I will definitely consider it.

598
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 5: But you know, as TJ mentioned, there is a concern

599
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,879
Speaker 5: over Waller's stealing this year with DeVante Adams there, I mean,

600
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 5: he's obviously going to take away some targets from Waller,

601
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 5: But we also have to remember Waller was a late bloomer,

602
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:18,640
Speaker 5: so he's turning thirty this year.

603
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 1: He's already sort of in the decline.

604
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 5: Phase of his career, even though he's been you know,

605
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:24,959
Speaker 5: a fancy rock star just for the past couple of seasons.

606
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,360
Speaker 5: So you know, taking that consideration, I'm a little bit

607
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 5: down Waller, but either way, like, he definitely separates this

608
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,959
Speaker 5: like elite tight endier from what I would consider the

609
00:28:35,000 --> 00:28:37,880
Speaker 5: top of the waiver wire tier. So he does represent

610
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 5: sort of a critical part in your draft where if

611
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 5: you pass up on him, you might be passing up

612
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 5: on tight end until you know the later rounds.

613
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, TJ.

614
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 4: Hakisid is the tight end sixth in ADP? Should he

615
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:52,480
Speaker 4: be the tight end sticks DJ? I mean there's a

616
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 4: lot of mouse to feed. Like you got Saint Brown,

617
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 4: you got DJ huk there, now you resigned Reynolds, you

618
00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 4: got DeAndre Swift who's a big pass catching back, and

619
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 4: you know Jamison Williams probably gonna be there for you know,

620
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 4: two thirds of the season or so. So you know,

621
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 4: does Hockinson warrant that he sticks ADP?

622
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean just from a a general draft philosophy standpoint,

623
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 2: this is where my my philosophy starts to really change

624
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 2: between best ball and redraft. Like in best ball, we

625
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 2: can we can target these guys in this range and

626
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 2: not have to pick out their good weeks. In redraft,

627
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 2: where we have to you know, decide when we're going

628
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 2: to play them and start you're just putting so much

629
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 2: draft equity into a player like Hockins, you know who.

630
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 2: I to answer your question, I don't think is fairly priced.

631
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:37,239
Speaker 2: I think he should be low, like be below this

632
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 2: chunk of i'll call it tight end. I don't know

633
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 2: six through nine. I kind of have him at the

634
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 2: bottom of these guys because of the influx of players

635
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 2: like we saw on our Saint Brown popped last year.

636
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 2: Now we have Jameson Williams in the mix. I don't

637
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 2: know if he's gonna start the season, but I think

638
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 2: he'll be a factor at some point. Uh DJ truck

639
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 2: pass pet catching back in swift. I do think this

640
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 2: offense can be surprisingly good after after Anthony Land lost

641
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 2: play calling dudies, Jared Goff was actually like top seven

642
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 2: inefficiency in adjusting yards per attempt. I think this is

643
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 2: going to be an offense that could be fruitful. But

644
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 2: it's why I like them better. I hate the better

645
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 2: and best ball cliche, but there's just so many guys

646
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 2: coming up behind Hawkinson that I think it can make

647
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 2: a better argument for at least having more consistency and upside.

648
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 2: Like Hawkinson's floors is frighteningly low for me, and even

649
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 2: last year before, like early in the season, we saw

650
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 2: he would oscillate between like twelve point half PPR games

651
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 2: and like four point half PPR games, Like that's already

652
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 2: there and it could be worse this year.

653
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean so on the quarterback pod with JJ John,

654
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 4: JJ and I decided that all pass lead to Jared Goff,

655
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 4: like we're just not going to draft quarterbacks and just

656
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 4: draft Yired Goff because like we all kind of feel

657
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 4: the same way. Like this Lion's office in general is

658
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 4: I think a little bit under Rady. But that doesn't like,

659
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 4: like to your point, that doesn't necessarily benefit Hockison seaw,

660
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 4: what do you think about Hockison is here?

661
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, So, I mean last year he was a pretty

662
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 5: big part of my tight end draft strategy just because

663
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 5: I thought he was the dividing line between sort of

664
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 5: the elite tight end one tier and the waiver riotier

665
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 5: and unfortunately, you know, injuries derailed his season. He was

666
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 5: a little bit inconsistent before that, as TJ alluded to,

667
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 5: but there's just too many weapons in this offense with

668
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 5: not enough targets to go around truly make Hawkinson as

669
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 5: consistent as you would like. From a tight end six.

670
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 5: So while I do like him, you know, he's he's

671
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 5: inside my top eight, I just think tight end six

672
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 5: is a bit rich. That's where I have you know,

673
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 5: Dalton Schultz. But this is clearly where the position opens

674
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 5: up where you see some disagreement and you know rankings

675
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 5: and ADP. So this is an area where I would

676
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,040
Speaker 5: just rather wait and get somebody that falls to me.

677
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 5: I would not want to be, you know, targeting Hawkinson

678
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 5: at tight end six. I just think his floor is

679
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 5: too too low, like you guys mentioned, so I'm going

680
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:59,479
Speaker 5: to be out on him in this range this season.

681
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:02,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, and really, I mean Hockinson.

682
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 4: It was first couple of weeks last year, first two

683
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 4: weeks he had eight and a half catches eighty two

684
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 4: yards per game.

685
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 3: He had three touchdowns in those two weeks. That was right.

686
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 4: And then with then weeks three to twelve, he has

687
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 4: four point six catches for forty two yards a game

688
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,479
Speaker 4: and point two touchdowns and he was his tight end.

689
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 4: He was on a seven point seven per game you

690
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 4: know pace, which would have put him right at the

691
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 4: tight end sixty and with Tyra Higbee, which is just.

692
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 3: You know mes So.

693
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 4: Now that he's I do think the Lions offense gets better.

694
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 4: I think they throw more, I think, but I just

695
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 4: think there's a lot of mouse defeat in like, like

696
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 4: you said, TJ, I just I think he could be inconsistent.

697
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 4: So that's the issue. And now in bestball, you could

698
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 4: kind of offset it by the fact that, like you

699
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 4: could draft Hockinson and then wait Uncourt, you know, one

700
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 4: of your quarterbacks and you get like stacking with Jared Goff.

701
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 3: That's not a bad strategy.

702
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 4: But he's a little He's not really in my redraft plans,

703
00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 4: you know, going at ADYP sixty two overall. I mean

704
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 4: that's the spot ahead of a Brandon cook that I'm

705
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 4: much rather have Brandon Cooks in that spot.

706
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 2: Absolutely.

707
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 3: Dag Schultz is tough. He's tough for me.

708
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 4: I mean he I know, he's not the most talented guy,

709
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 4: but I think he's very solid in terms of what

710
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 4: he could do in his offense. He's been doing it

711
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 4: now for like a year and a half. Really kind

712
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 4: of came out, you know, surprised people last year with

713
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 4: how could sist. He was able to be in numbers,

714
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 4: he was able to put up So TJ, I mean,

715
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 4: do you think he's due for some regression. I know

716
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 4: he went six or fourteen in terms of the touchdowns

717
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 4: in the red zone, finished with eight seventy five catches

718
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 4: for eight to eight Or is like Gallup's early season

719
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 4: absence no Jarwin, you know, going to kind of help

720
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 4: remain in this top eight.

721
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 2: Yeah. The so if we look at my expected touchdown

722
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 2: model shows him as the second most touchdowns over expectation.

723
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 2: The only tight end that scored more touchdowns over expectation

724
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 2: than him was Hunter Henry. The difference is that Schultz

725
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 2: had one hundred and four targets to Hunter Henry seventy

726
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 2: five targets. And Schultz is in a position where as

727
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 2: you mentioned, with Cooper no longer there, with us not

728
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 2: sure when GAP's going to be there. He and also

729
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 2: tied to a quarterback that has showed us that he

730
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 2: can be uber efficient and lead a crazy efficient passing offense.

731
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 2: Going from our again tightened six to tighten ten. I

732
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 2: don't know if Schultz is going to have the crazy

733
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 2: spike weeks that some of these guys like Knocks might

734
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 2: be able to give us. But if someone in the

735
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 2: tight end six to tight end ten range becomes the

736
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 2: most consistent plug in play option. I would bet on

737
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 2: it being Schultz. I just really like his opportunity in

738
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 2: this offense. I still believe in Dak for some reason,

739
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 2: like I don't know, I don't know, I don't know

740
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:41,879
Speaker 2: if like if I'm just listening to the wrong things.

741
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,720
Speaker 2: But it feels like there's this like people aren't trusting

742
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 2: in Dak for some reason. Maybe it's just because so

743
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 2: many people are excited about like Jalen Hurts and Russell

744
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 2: Wilson and what not kind of in the same range

745
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:54,320
Speaker 2: that Dask gets just lost in the shuffle. But I

746
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:56,239
Speaker 2: trust Ak and if Dalton's going to be one of

747
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 2: his primary guys. If I if I am going to

748
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 2: go out side of my redraft philosophy and draft somebody

749
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,919
Speaker 2: in this range and expect them to be starting every

750
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 2: single week, I would say at Schultz, yeah.

751
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 3: I mean TJ.

752
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 4: To your point on Dak real quick is I think

753
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 4: the overall market is too which I think he's still

754
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 4: the QB six, But yeah, I think some of the

755
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 4: experts are kind of saying, and I've kind of included

756
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 4: in this, I think he's more like the QB eight

757
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 4: or nine, just because I rather have the rushing upside,

758
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 4: it hurts. I'd rather have Tom Brady and Julio and

759
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 4: you know that whole offense. So I don't think it's

760
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 4: really a knock on Dak is like kind of to

761
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 4: your point, there's just a lot of quarterbacks this year.

762
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 4: But as far as chokes, I mean, Sean, what are

763
00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 4: you seeing with shows? I know he was kind of

764
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 4: he was a guy that was cover to project at

765
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 4: times last year. He would kind of come out of

766
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 4: know where if he's Spike Weeks and he look up

767
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 4: and he's like one of the top tight ends in

768
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 4: the league to finish the year.

769
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 3: So where are you at with him?

770
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 1: Yeah?

771
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 5: So I have him tight end six ahead of Hawkinson.

772
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 5: Like I said, he's sort of in no man's line.

773
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 5: He's in this year all by himself, where he's very

774
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 5: tricky to project because I think if you were to,

775
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 5: you know, debate who has the least amount of talent

776
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:05,719
Speaker 5: with top ten, it'd probably be Schultz. But he has

777
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:09,240
Speaker 5: an amazing opportunity he could be you know, Dak's number

778
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,480
Speaker 5: two or three target most weeks and an elite offense.

779
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:15,720
Speaker 5: So I think just give him the opportunity. The scheme,

780
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:18,800
Speaker 5: everything sets up well for him, and I wouldn't overlook

781
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 5: the fact that Blake Jarwin has gone. Obviously, Jarwin was

782
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 5: pretty insignificant last year, but once once he was knocked

783
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 5: out for the rest of the season, that's when we

784
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 5: saw Schultz run a route around eighty five percent at a

785
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 5: time as opposed to seventy percent of time, and he

786
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 5: was the tight end four over that stretch the last

787
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 5: several weeks when Jarro was gone. So I think the

788
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 5: fact that jar Win's no along with the team, we're

789
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:43,839
Speaker 5: gonna see that massive upside starting Week one, and like

790
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 5: you said, Michael Gallup probably won't be ready for the

791
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:48,799
Speaker 5: first couple of games, so he'll you know, Schultz will

792
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 5: probably be Dak's number two target early in the season,

793
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 5: and he's, you know, one of Dak's favorite targets.

794
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 1: So I think just I think he's going.

795
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 5: To provide that consisting that you would want to draft

796
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 5: a tight end early, So I'm okay drafting him at

797
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:02,760
Speaker 5: tight end seven.

798
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think the key with with especially once you

799
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 4: get outside these you know, talented studs here, you know

800
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 4: that top five, I think it comes down to, you know,

801
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 4: how many routes are you gonna get too and and

802
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,600
Speaker 4: and Shultz for the year averaged a route on seventy

803
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:19,879
Speaker 4: eight percent of dropbacks, which is really good for tight ends.

804
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 4: But you know without jar when that number jumped over

805
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,920
Speaker 4: eighty percent. And so that's kind of where I'm projecting

806
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 4: him this year because I think that's you know, I

807
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:30,399
Speaker 4: folks to you Sean about this, but like the depth

808
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 4: chart behind Dalton Chokes is Jake Ferguson a fourth rounder,

809
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 4: Sean McKeon, Jeremy Sprinkle, Ian Bunting and and Peyton Anderson

810
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 4: undrafted free age, so like they're gonna be Chulkes is

811
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:42,360
Speaker 4: gonna be like the one tight end on the field,

812
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 4: and I think he's gonna be on the field almost

813
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:45,439
Speaker 4: all the time.

814
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:47,240
Speaker 3: And that's that's.

815
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:49,719
Speaker 4: Where something when you do have a quarterback as good

816
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 4: as Dak Prescott. So he's my tight end six as well.

817
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 4: Still not rushing to draft him a lot, but I

818
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 4: would like if it's the choice between you know, waiting

819
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,240
Speaker 4: a few extra picks in risking it or taking hockets,

820
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:06,240
Speaker 4: and I'd rather just wait. Dallas Goddard, he's a Titan

821
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 4: eight in ADP TJ. Do you think is still we

822
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 4: gonna have enough pass volume to go around this year

823
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 4: because A. J.

824
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:14,239
Speaker 3: Brown is there.

825
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 4: Now, I know you like Devontae Smith, you know, heading

826
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 4: in the year two as well, but God still has

827
00:38:19,040 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 4: had pretty good you know, per route metrics as well.

828
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 3: So where are you at with him?

829
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:23,799
Speaker 1: Yeah?

830
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:25,879
Speaker 2: Got It's a tough one for me because I do

831
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 2: like to look at those those efficiency and route metrics.

832
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 2: The problem is he's competing with two other guys that

833
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 2: are fantastic at it as well. I think I'm not

834
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 2: more excited about a team this year than the Eagles.

835
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,440
Speaker 2: I'm drafting as many Eagles as I can. I think

836
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:41,240
Speaker 2: they're gonna ball. I think they could be twenty nineteen

837
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 2: Ravens to twenty twenty Bills. The problem is Davonta Smith

838
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:48,440
Speaker 2: had one of the most spectacular rookie years that we've seen. Now,

839
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:51,240
Speaker 2: the touchdowns, the fantasy points weren't there, but in terms

840
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:54,320
Speaker 2: of yards per route and target share yards per target,

841
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:56,720
Speaker 2: he was on par with guys like Terry McLaurin, Jamar

842
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 2: Chase he bawled last year, and now you put in

843
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:02,719
Speaker 2: AJ Brown. AJ Brown when healthy is a guy that

844
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 2: has traditionally paced for twenty five percent plus target share.

845
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 2: We saw DeVante Smith above twenty percent target share last year,

846
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 2: Dallas Goddard paced for about nineteen percent when healthy. Given

847
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 2: those three guys, I do think their passing volume goes up.

848
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 2: To answer your question, they wanted to be a passing

849
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 2: team before. Before Jalen Hurts started to suck. Last year,

850
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 2: they were top ten and they were top ten and

851
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 2: neutral passing rate over the first seven or eight weeks

852
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:30,320
Speaker 2: in the season, and that decline. By acquiring AJ Brown,

853
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:32,399
Speaker 2: it at least indicate that they want to throw more

854
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 2: than they hope Jalen Hurts takes that leap. But if

855
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,760
Speaker 2: we assume, which I do, that Davante Smith and AJ

856
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:40,359
Speaker 2: Brown are both going to command over twenty percent target

857
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:43,799
Speaker 2: shares because they're both such amazing technicians on the outside,

858
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 2: that makes it very very hard for Garter. Like we

859
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 2: just don't see teams with three guys over twenty percent.

860
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:51,359
Speaker 2: It just doesn't happen. So I think if AJ Brown

861
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 2: hurts a player, it's probably Goddard more than Davonte Smith.

862
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's tough because you know, it's just you don't

863
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:02,239
Speaker 4: I do agree. I think it's going to increase, but

864
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 4: it's hard to say how much. And I think you're

865
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 4: gonna need a pretty big increase to to keep him consistent.

866
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 4: But I don't know, what do you think, John, Like

867
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:13,239
Speaker 4: where you on Goddar and the consistency that you think

868
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:14,359
Speaker 4: you might have this year.

869
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:17,840
Speaker 5: Well, I mean, I've been waiting five years to save this,

870
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 5: but finally we are entering a season where Dallas Goddard

871
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 5: doesn't have zach Ertz there to compete with. It reminds

872
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:27,879
Speaker 5: me when Derrick Henry had DeMarco Murray and Dean Lewis front.

873
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:30,240
Speaker 1: I was just like so frustrated. I'm like, just unleash

874
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:30,800
Speaker 1: him already.

875
00:40:30,840 --> 00:40:33,759
Speaker 5: So well, I'm very excited that Dallas Goddard has this

876
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:35,879
Speaker 5: tight end depth chart to himself. I mean, you were

877
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:39,360
Speaker 5: making fun of the Cowboys backups. Look at the Eagles

878
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 5: depth chart when you get a second, it's nothing but

879
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 5: like former quarterbacks and wide receivers.

880
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,120
Speaker 4: I think, I know, I think I could do Walkers, Grant,

881
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:48,839
Speaker 4: Grant Calcata, He's pretty good.

882
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 2: But yeah, isn't a whiteside tight end now?

883
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 1: Yeah?

884
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, you got you got Richard Rodgers there, Jack Stull,

885
00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:01,320
Speaker 4: Jack Skulls there, Jackson. Baby, it's better than the Cowboys,

886
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:02,800
Speaker 4: but it's not great former quarterback.

887
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 5: But yeah, exactly, so he has zero competition whatsoever. Finally, however,

888
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 5: the fact that AJ Brown there, the fact that they

889
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 5: trade for a J. Brown and DeVante Smith. I love

890
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 5: him heading into your two and they're just you know,

891
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:17,759
Speaker 5: an extreme run heavy offense. It's just gonna be hard

892
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:20,160
Speaker 5: for got her to really command enough targets to be

893
00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:22,960
Speaker 5: a top five option. But you know, last season after

894
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 5: they trade away zach Ertz, he was tight end five

895
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 5: and points per game, So he does have that kind

896
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,799
Speaker 5: of upside if anybody were to miss time between you know,

897
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 5: Brown or Smith. But unfortunately, just there's too many target

898
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 5: you know, there's too many you know, target hogs in

899
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:42,359
Speaker 5: this offense now to really feel comfortable taking god her.

900
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 1: But at tight end eight, I would say that's fair.

901
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 5: That's that's where I haven't projected, and I do love

902
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 5: his upside, but it's it's about time he finally gets

903
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 5: the tight end room to himself.

904
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:54,680
Speaker 2: The biggest problem with Goddard is his consensus ADP is

905
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 2: between Darnel Mooney, Kareem Hunt, Russell Wilson, Juju Smith, Schuster,

906
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 2: and Tony Pollard. Like those are all guys I want

907
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 2: on my.

908
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 3: Team for me.

909
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:05,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, So it's like I'm just never taking Goddard there

910
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:06,880
Speaker 2: because of those guys.

911
00:42:07,160 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 3: I love me some Darnel Moodie. So yeah, I've not

912
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:11,439
Speaker 3: never taking got It over him either.

913
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 4: But I will say this again, like it's all relative,

914
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:17,760
Speaker 4: and I will say this like t J. Hockinson sixty

915
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:21,240
Speaker 4: two overall, Dallas Goddard seventy eight overall. Again, I still

916
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:23,760
Speaker 4: tend to a got It. I think it's with Schultz.

917
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:26,439
Speaker 4: It's a little closer. It's like I probably feel better

918
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:28,839
Speaker 4: about Schultz than having to go to god It because

919
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:31,239
Speaker 4: I do think there's more inconsistency God. I think got

920
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:33,359
Speaker 4: It's a little better for best ball. You could stack

921
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 4: them with. You could stack them with you know, Dalen

922
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:37,440
Speaker 4: Hurts and the rest of the past catchers and can

923
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:39,920
Speaker 4: go about it that way. So I really don't have

924
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 4: problem with it. But again, it's just just not a

925
00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 4: tiar that for it. For the reasons that we're kind

926
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 4: of outlining, there's just a wider range of outcomes in

927
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 4: a lower floor and lower consistency floors that it's not

928
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,239
Speaker 4: He's not really going to be on a ton of

929
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:56,799
Speaker 4: my teams, especially in traditional redraft Dawson Knox is the

930
00:42:57,239 --> 00:42:58,919
Speaker 4: nine in adp.

931
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:00,239
Speaker 1: Uh.

932
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:01,440
Speaker 3: You know the.

933
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 4: Touchdown regression, you know that you could talk about that.

934
00:43:03,560 --> 00:43:05,800
Speaker 4: He had nine and seventy one targets six to eighteen

935
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:07,759
Speaker 4: in the red zone. So he's you know, Buffalo. You

936
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 4: expect him to get respect the Bills, to get in

937
00:43:09,640 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 4: the red zone. You expect Josh All to throw a

938
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 4: ton of t's. But I think my question is because

939
00:43:14,239 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 4: I think the thing that really like, we've seen Godard

940
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:19,359
Speaker 4: be a volume guy.

941
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 3: We've seen Hockinson be a volume that.

942
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:23,760
Speaker 4: We've even seen Dalton Folkes be a volume guy. Knox

943
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 4: he's been kind of surviving on his touchdowns.

944
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 3: TJ. Do you think he can be a volume guy?

945
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:31,840
Speaker 4: There are some openings in Buffalo, you know, Standards moving

946
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 4: on and Basley moving on.

947
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:36,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, do I think he could be a

948
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 2: volume guy? Most likely not? I mean his periff berls

949
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 2: have been absolutely atrocious. Uh, there is Buffalo. Buffalo is

950
00:43:44,520 --> 00:43:46,759
Speaker 2: missing two of their top three targets from last year.

951
00:43:46,880 --> 00:43:50,719
Speaker 2: So so us like confidently projecting that Gabe Davis is

952
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 2: going to come in and be the number two, Like

953
00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:59,320
Speaker 2: that's not a guarantee. I am I'm betting I'm betting.

954
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:02,359
Speaker 2: I'm betting on it a lot betting. I'm betting on it.

955
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 2: But we don't know what. We don't know for certainly

956
00:44:05,239 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 2: what the tight end tota pole is going to look

957
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:10,239
Speaker 2: like after Stefande. I'm all over at Gabe Davis. But

958
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:13,840
Speaker 2: my point is like, is there a path for him too? Yeah,

959
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 2: because they are missed their top two targets from last year.

960
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:18,440
Speaker 2: But like I said on the flip side, twenty fourth,

961
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 2: a non qualifying tight ends the yards per round last year,

962
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 2: thirty fourth in target rate just absolutely lived on those touchdowns.

963
00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 2: So yes, he is going to a theory regress in

964
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:32,399
Speaker 2: the touchdown column. What I will say is that we

965
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:37,279
Speaker 2: do see players have multiple season outlier touchdown years. And

966
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:40,240
Speaker 2: the crazy thing about Josh Allen is we actually haven't

967
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 2: seen Josh Allen have his outlier touchdown year yet. Two

968
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 2: years ago when he went crazy, his touch was six

969
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 2: point five percent. Last year is only five point six percent. Now,

970
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 2: those are still elite levels. But when we've seen the

971
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:56,040
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes go nuclear, those are

972
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:58,600
Speaker 2: like eight half percent nine percent touchdown season. Are we

973
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 2: going to project that for Josh Allen? Absolutely not, But

974
00:45:01,400 --> 00:45:03,759
Speaker 2: does he have one coming Like probably because he's Josh

975
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 2: Allen And if Dawson Knox is going to be on

976
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 2: the field for ninety percent of the snaps when that happens,

977
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 2: like the difference between him and Dallas Godder Like, even

978
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:14,000
Speaker 2: though it's tightened eight to tight end nine, DAWs Gotdter

979
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 2: is going seventy ninth overall because it's ADP. Dawston Knox

980
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:20,239
Speaker 2: is going ninety third. That means sometimes you've be able

981
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 2: to get him all the way down to like the

982
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 2: hundredth pick. So like when that happens, I want kind

983
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 2: of like the Eagles, I want Bills on my team

984
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 2: when I can get them.

985
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, and Sean, you know, TJ mentioned it snapcow, and

986
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 4: I think that's an interesting one for me too, because

987
00:45:33,160 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 4: actually he ran around on eighty percent of the Bill's

988
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 4: dropbacks on average. I bumped that down to seventy five

989
00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 4: percent because of the presence of OJ Howard, But I

990
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 4: also think OJ Howard might just be unfortunately washed because

991
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 4: of the injury that he sustained. I don't think he's

992
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:49,480
Speaker 4: going to be a big big factor. But where are

993
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 4: you on on Dawston. I think the the snaps and

994
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 4: the projected routes kind of really impact where you rank it.

995
00:45:56,520 --> 00:46:00,239
Speaker 5: Absolutely, and that's why very early last season I was

996
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 5: sounding alarm on him. I was targeting him in DFS

997
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:05,200
Speaker 5: when he was super cheap because we saw that they

998
00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 5: were running less four wide formations, more eleven personnel and

999
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:12,840
Speaker 5: just having you know, Dawson Knox runner out over seventy

1000
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,360
Speaker 5: five percent of the time so in this offense, absolutely

1001
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:17,759
Speaker 5: signing up for that. And while we should see some

1002
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 5: touchdown regression, he's still you know, running around over seventy

1003
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:24,760
Speaker 5: five percent of time in this Bill's offense. So that's

1004
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 5: really hard to pass up. And I liked his talent

1005
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 5: coming in. I called him sort of a dollar store

1006
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 5: Mark Andrews. He does have some upside, but you know,

1007
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:36,319
Speaker 5: when it comes to drafting him tight end nine, I

1008
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:39,480
Speaker 5: think you are sort of over spending on the touchdown

1009
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:42,319
Speaker 5: production last year when you get zach Ert a little

1010
00:46:42,320 --> 00:46:45,240
Speaker 5: bit later, who I actually have ranked higher on the Knox.

1011
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:47,440
Speaker 5: I'd just be careful where he's a volatile tight end,

1012
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 5: where at this point, if you're drafting him, don't get

1013
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 5: too attached to him because we might see one of

1014
00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 5: these other tight ends you know five ten slots later

1015
00:46:57,200 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 5: emerged early in the season, and I would be okay,

1016
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:01,640
Speaker 5: you know, cutting a guy like Knock, So if you're

1017
00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:04,440
Speaker 5: spending draft capal on him, I wouldn't, you know, just

1018
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:06,279
Speaker 5: hang on to him for dear life. This is the

1019
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:09,160
Speaker 5: range that you know, you have to be a little

1020
00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 5: bit careful at doing that.

1021
00:47:10,280 --> 00:47:12,839
Speaker 1: But yeah, he's my tight end ten this year.

1022
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 5: I still love his upside, but I would be worried

1023
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:17,799
Speaker 5: about for being a little bit lower because of, like

1024
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:20,319
Speaker 5: you said, Oj Howard's presence, could you know, eat into

1025
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 5: his target a little bit.

1026
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is and this is exactly why I'm not

1027
00:47:25,239 --> 00:47:28,040
Speaker 4: really keen on drafted in this tier, although I will

1028
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:29,880
Speaker 4: say if you're in a standard league is probably the

1029
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:32,800
Speaker 4: best time to attack Knocks. If you do want to

1030
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:34,400
Speaker 4: draft in this tier, or if you're in a ten

1031
00:47:34,440 --> 00:47:36,880
Speaker 4: team league and you know, like like DJ you mentioned,

1032
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 4: you know, Knocks just because he's a T nine, there

1033
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:41,120
Speaker 4: might be times when he's the tenth or eleventh or

1034
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:44,000
Speaker 4: twelfth tight end off the board in that In those situations,

1035
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 4: I think, you know, that's fine. If you're the last

1036
00:47:46,600 --> 00:47:48,480
Speaker 4: you know manager to draft a tight end and you

1037
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:50,760
Speaker 4: get Dustin Knox and you're in a standard leak especially,

1038
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:54,319
Speaker 4: it's like, okay, I'm cool with that, but like, yeah, sorry,

1039
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:55,200
Speaker 4: go ahead, no.

1040
00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:56,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll just say yeah, if you're in a t

1041
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 2: like a Yahoo ten team league like you might, he

1042
00:47:58,880 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 2: might go and draft it.

1043
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 3: Yeah exactly.

1044
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:03,280
Speaker 4: So so there then it's like I have no problem.

1045
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:05,399
Speaker 4: But and once you start getting into you know, half

1046
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:08,960
Speaker 4: PBR full PPR, just not as keen as taking them,

1047
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 4: even though I have him right in that same tier

1048
00:48:10,680 --> 00:48:15,359
Speaker 4: with Hawkinson shows got her as well. But let's go talk.

1049
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:17,919
Speaker 4: Let's talk about zach Ertz because I want zach Ertz

1050
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 4: as well.

1051
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:19,080
Speaker 3: I mean, I.

1052
00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:22,320
Speaker 4: Noticed, I was, I was kind of on an island

1053
00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 4: coming into last year saying like, zach Erst actually isn't washed.

1054
00:48:25,680 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 4: I just I just don't think tight ends declined that

1055
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 4: the like they don't drop off a clift the same

1056
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 4: way necessarily some of these bigger bodied wide receivers do,

1057
00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:36,400
Speaker 4: especially so, and I think he kind of validated that

1058
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:40,320
Speaker 4: when he went to Arizona because he you know, he

1059
00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 4: averaged over five catches a game, fifty two yards. He

1060
00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 4: was I think he I believe he was actually their

1061
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:47,440
Speaker 4: leading receiver. And once he came over there in raw

1062
00:48:47,520 --> 00:48:51,080
Speaker 4: volume because they had some injuries. So you know, tij

1063
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:53,759
Speaker 4: where are you at with Ertz this year? You know

1064
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:56,399
Speaker 4: he is thirty two, but again, you're gonna have You're

1065
00:48:56,400 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 4: gonna have Hopkins out your aj Green's pretty washed.

1066
00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:02,080
Speaker 3: You know, he did get Hollywood, but Kirk is gone,

1067
00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:03,000
Speaker 3: So I mean.

1068
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:07,120
Speaker 4: There're certainly I guess I would say the he has

1069
00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:09,360
Speaker 4: a path to like be in like a top seven

1070
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:09,839
Speaker 4: rate guy.

1071
00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:13,240
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, I'm gonna go Devil's advocate on Earth's because

1072
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:16,000
Speaker 2: we did start to see a declining. It was a

1073
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:19,399
Speaker 2: usage thing with Goddard being there in Philadelphia. But then

1074
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:21,840
Speaker 2: I feel like he kind of caught lightning in a

1075
00:49:21,840 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 2: bottle last year in Arizona because he did benefit so

1076
00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:28,080
Speaker 2: much from the absence of DeAndre Hopkins. Now he's going

1077
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 2: into the year with Theodra Hopkins suspended, but Hollywood is there.

1078
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:34,759
Speaker 2: Hawkins is going to come back in week seven, and

1079
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:36,640
Speaker 2: now he's going to have two very good wide receivers

1080
00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:39,960
Speaker 2: to compete with. I think that Erth scares me because

1081
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 2: I think he could be a player that we draft confidently,

1082
00:49:44,080 --> 00:49:46,719
Speaker 2: and then he confirms that confidence through the first few

1083
00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:49,439
Speaker 2: weeks of the season and we're stuck with him really

1084
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:53,200
Speaker 2: declining down the stretch because of the age and because

1085
00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 2: of two very very good wide receivers that he's going

1086
00:49:56,040 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 2: to be competing again. So I'm a little trepidacious about he.

1087
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:02,279
Speaker 4: John, give me the opposite, sick because you said you

1088
00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:04,160
Speaker 4: were a little higher, like you had him over knocked,

1089
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 4: So give me, I guess a little more of the opposite.

1090
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:09,800
Speaker 5: So I mean, as you know, the world's biggest Dallas

1091
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:11,879
Speaker 5: Goddart fan, I finally got to throw him at zach

1092
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:14,759
Speaker 5: Ertz Voodoo Dolls, and now I like zak Kertz. But

1093
00:50:15,160 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 5: you know, the change of scenery was huge for him.

1094
00:50:17,239 --> 00:50:17,680
Speaker 1: Last year.

1095
00:50:17,760 --> 00:50:19,319
Speaker 5: He looked kind of washed and I thought he was

1096
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 5: going to retire eventually. But he ranked the tight end

1097
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:26,919
Speaker 5: four from week seven through eighteen with Arizona. He looked

1098
00:50:26,960 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 5: like a really good fit in this scheme. And now

1099
00:50:29,080 --> 00:50:31,120
Speaker 5: he has a whole off season to learn the system,

1100
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:34,600
Speaker 5: get chemistry with Kyler Murray. So I do like him

1101
00:50:34,640 --> 00:50:37,080
Speaker 5: heading in the season. As TJ mentioned, it's gonna be

1102
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 5: a bit of a sugar rush. You know, the first

1103
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:41,000
Speaker 5: six pixes of the season. He's not gonna have DeAndre

1104
00:50:41,080 --> 00:50:43,600
Speaker 5: Hopkins there so I think he will thrive with the

1105
00:50:43,640 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 5: extra targets. But then once Hopkins comes back, and then

1106
00:50:47,200 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 5: once you know, rookie tight end Trey McBride, who was

1107
00:50:50,120 --> 00:50:53,280
Speaker 5: arguably the top tight end and the class, got drafted.

1108
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:55,759
Speaker 5: I mean kind of reminds me of Dallas Kurder got art,

1109
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:59,880
Speaker 5: where you know this Trey McBride situation. Back at zach Ertz,

1110
00:51:00,239 --> 00:51:02,720
Speaker 5: you know, the second half of the season, as DJ mentioned,

1111
00:51:02,760 --> 00:51:04,920
Speaker 5: you know, zach Ertz might be a little bit more inconsistent.

1112
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:07,359
Speaker 5: But either way, where he goes at tight end ten

1113
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:11,279
Speaker 5: and some drafts he falls way way later, just in

1114
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:14,040
Speaker 5: terms of overall, Like he is usually off the board

1115
00:51:14,080 --> 00:51:16,880
Speaker 5: by tight end ten, but that's when people really step

1116
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:18,480
Speaker 5: off the gas pedal at tight end and you can

1117
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 5: see a guy like Ertz ball pretty far. I do

1118
00:51:21,120 --> 00:51:23,160
Speaker 5: like getting him there. I think your team is pretty

1119
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:26,440
Speaker 5: much already set by the time he is being drafted,

1120
00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:29,239
Speaker 5: so it's almost like taking the first stab at the

1121
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:32,520
Speaker 5: waiver wires. So I love getting Ertz there because, like

1122
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:35,040
Speaker 5: we said, you know, the first six weeks of the season,

1123
00:51:35,360 --> 00:51:36,920
Speaker 5: he should be a top seven tight end.

1124
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 2: That's Week seventeen, best ball three winner trade MK Ride.

1125
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:47,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I tend to agree.

1126
00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:48,719
Speaker 4: I mean, I think in redraft it's like you have

1127
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:51,880
Speaker 4: that option of like trading him and doing different things. Yeah,

1128
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,359
Speaker 4: so I get, you know, more trepidation in best ball,

1129
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:56,719
Speaker 4: but I'm kind of what you seoan like, I like

1130
00:51:56,760 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 4: Earth because I think, I mean, I was always kind

1131
00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:01,239
Speaker 4: of of the camp that he's he's not washed. You know,

1132
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:04,440
Speaker 4: I just thought Carson Wentz was abysmal that last year,

1133
00:52:04,480 --> 00:52:05,879
Speaker 4: that that Ertz really kind of fell off.

1134
00:52:05,920 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 3: And I guess because he was also.

1135
00:52:07,320 --> 00:52:09,799
Speaker 4: Turning thirty or thirty one at the time, people kind

1136
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:14,399
Speaker 4: of connected the two or conflated the two. But even

1137
00:52:14,480 --> 00:52:16,920
Speaker 4: last year, I mean, even going from you know, Jalen

1138
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:20,399
Speaker 4: Hurts to Kyler Murray, you know, fifty eight percent catch

1139
00:52:20,440 --> 00:52:22,799
Speaker 4: rate with in Philly, with you.

1140
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:24,320
Speaker 3: Know, six point one yards per target.

1141
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:26,719
Speaker 4: Then he goes to Arizona, it goes to you know,

1142
00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:29,600
Speaker 4: up from fifty eight to sixty nine percent, the catch

1143
00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:31,440
Speaker 4: rate and the yards per target go from six to

1144
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:34,319
Speaker 4: one to seven to one. So you know, even you know,

1145
00:52:34,480 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 4: just having being in that offense with Kyler, it's a

1146
00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:37,400
Speaker 4: wide open offense.

1147
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:40,440
Speaker 3: I think it really suits him.

1148
00:52:39,600 --> 00:52:41,960
Speaker 4: And I feel good about drafting him too, because I

1149
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:44,319
Speaker 4: just don't think there's much of a I don't think

1150
00:52:44,360 --> 00:52:48,600
Speaker 4: there's much of a difference between like Hockinson, Schultz got

1151
00:52:48,600 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 4: hear Knox and Ertz included in that and the thing

1152
00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:54,359
Speaker 4: about arts that are like two things one you can

1153
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:57,239
Speaker 4: get him after all those guys usually too. We've seen

1154
00:52:57,320 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 4: him be a volume guy. We've seen even last year

1155
00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:02,239
Speaker 4: in Arizona five catches, I mean per game, over five

1156
00:53:02,280 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 4: catches per game, Like, There's just not many tight ends

1157
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:08,040
Speaker 4: that can do that, and especially not going outside of

1158
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:09,759
Speaker 4: you know, they're not going outside the top five.

1159
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 3: So I do like me some Zach Er this year.

1160
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:14,759
Speaker 2: I will say it's super easy if like, because since

1161
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:16,759
Speaker 2: Kyler's going so early, it could be tough to get

1162
00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:19,359
Speaker 2: him with Hollywood and sometimes even even Nuke. So if

1163
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:21,560
Speaker 2: you are looking to stack Kyler, like Ertz is the

1164
00:53:21,600 --> 00:53:22,560
Speaker 2: easiest one to do it with.

1165
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:25,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I'm just not getting much Nuke because I

1166
00:53:25,520 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 4: just feel like he's not being discounted enough giving a

1167
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 4: six miss games, Like.

1168
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:30,960
Speaker 2: Where would you take him? I know this is a

1169
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:31,799
Speaker 2: tight end pod, but.

1170
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:34,560
Speaker 3: I would take him out. I would I would not

1171
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:36,360
Speaker 3: want him. I would want him as my wide receiver.

1172
00:53:36,440 --> 00:53:37,440
Speaker 3: Five because it's.

1173
00:53:37,400 --> 00:53:40,320
Speaker 4: Like forty nine, and I actually have him ranked outside

1174
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:42,200
Speaker 4: of that, like I have him ranked lower. But I

1175
00:53:42,239 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 4: get it because you know, season one ranking takes into

1176
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:47,520
Speaker 4: account the miss games. But I just feel like that

1177
00:53:47,600 --> 00:53:49,840
Speaker 4: fourth wide receiver spot is so important to your flex.

1178
00:53:49,880 --> 00:53:53,040
Speaker 2: Now I've only drafted Nuke as my wide receiver five.

1179
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:53,640
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1180
00:53:53,760 --> 00:53:55,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I think we're kind of on the stand

1181
00:53:55,800 --> 00:53:57,680
Speaker 3: page there. Mike a.

1182
00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:01,440
Speaker 4: Seki is the tight end eleven. Uh, this actually surprised me.

1183
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:03,319
Speaker 4: I didn't realize he was going to climb this high

1184
00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:05,759
Speaker 4: and ADP. I chalked this up to people just really

1185
00:54:05,800 --> 00:54:08,480
Speaker 4: don't know what to do after these top tens. I

1186
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:10,919
Speaker 4: mean you could make it. I mean, don't get me wrong,

1187
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:13,040
Speaker 4: you can make a case for Gasicki as a tight

1188
00:54:13,120 --> 00:54:15,239
Speaker 4: end eleven. He does run a lot of He's more

1189
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:16,920
Speaker 4: of a wide receiver in a way. He runs a

1190
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:21,000
Speaker 4: lot of his routes out wide. But I just have

1191
00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:24,680
Speaker 4: trouble kind of putting him there because you know, I

1192
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:26,839
Speaker 4: just think that the years for Pete Gazicki have kind

1193
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:28,440
Speaker 4: of passed now, Like Tyreek is going to take a

1194
00:54:28,480 --> 00:54:32,759
Speaker 4: major target there, Jalen Waddle, you know, he he's going

1195
00:54:32,840 --> 00:54:34,759
Speaker 4: to improve in year too, even if maybe the raw

1196
00:54:34,840 --> 00:54:38,000
Speaker 4: numbers go down because of Tyreek, But like Gasiki was

1197
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:42,000
Speaker 4: six point six targets last year four point five catches

1198
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:45,360
Speaker 4: and that's not I mean six point six targets, but

1199
00:54:45,440 --> 00:54:47,239
Speaker 4: that's not really that great. And now Tyreek is there,

1200
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:49,200
Speaker 4: I mean TJ. Dick, what do you think of it?

1201
00:54:49,239 --> 00:54:51,360
Speaker 4: Like is the volume going to go down further? And

1202
00:54:51,920 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 4: you would you take him tight end eleven?

1203
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 2: Well, first, let from a macro perspective, like my biggest

1204
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:01,000
Speaker 2: pet peeven fantasy football is saying like, oh, this guy

1205
00:55:01,040 --> 00:55:04,320
Speaker 2: could finish as a fantasy QB one like he finished

1206
00:55:04,320 --> 00:55:07,319
Speaker 2: as QB twelve. Like having Kirk Cousins isn't the same

1207
00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:09,600
Speaker 2: as having Kyler Murray. Shut up with all that, And

1208
00:55:09,640 --> 00:55:12,319
Speaker 2: it's like the same thing with tight end now, right, like, oh,

1209
00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:14,360
Speaker 2: if he finishes a tight eleven, he finished as a

1210
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:17,440
Speaker 2: tight end one from like tighten eleven through tight end

1211
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:20,160
Speaker 2: I don't know, nineteen, like through Djoku. It's basically who's

1212
00:55:20,160 --> 00:55:21,879
Speaker 2: going to score the most touchdowns at this point? Right?

1213
00:55:21,920 --> 00:55:24,279
Speaker 2: And Gaseki you talked about when we were talking about

1214
00:55:24,320 --> 00:55:27,200
Speaker 2: Kyle Pitts lining up not as an inline tight end

1215
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 2: if he worked as an inline tight end and Tyrek

1216
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:31,600
Speaker 2: Hill came over, It's like, fine, he can maintain his role,

1217
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:34,439
Speaker 2: keep doing his thing. Now we're basically being like Ken

1218
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:39,279
Speaker 2: Gaseki produced as a basically the wide receiver three, not

1219
00:55:39,440 --> 00:55:42,399
Speaker 2: as the tight end in an offense where like, how

1220
00:55:42,600 --> 00:55:45,279
Speaker 2: are we even that confident in Tua? Tyreek's gonna get

1221
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:47,239
Speaker 2: his waddle even if he doesn't like go crazy. We

1222
00:55:47,280 --> 00:55:49,880
Speaker 2: think he can get a lot of targets at the

1223
00:55:49,960 --> 00:55:52,880
Speaker 2: very least close to the line scrimmage, even though I

1224
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:55,560
Speaker 2: think he's better than that. So like Gasiki again, it's

1225
00:55:55,640 --> 00:55:57,759
Speaker 2: it's like touchdown upside for me, and I just don't

1226
00:55:57,760 --> 00:55:59,239
Speaker 2: I just don't see it with the Dolphins.

1227
00:55:59,719 --> 00:56:04,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I should mention like, in terms of raw points,

1228
00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:06,640
Speaker 4: he was a tight end eleven last year. In terms

1229
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:08,640
Speaker 4: of points per game, among tight ends that played at

1230
00:56:08,680 --> 00:56:12,279
Speaker 4: least half the season, he was tight end sixteen. So

1231
00:56:12,280 --> 00:56:14,719
Speaker 4: now it's like tight end sixteen last year with an

1232
00:56:14,760 --> 00:56:19,080
Speaker 4: expected dip in targets. That's it's just hard to justify

1233
00:56:19,200 --> 00:56:21,720
Speaker 4: tight end eleven. But Sean, where are you Augusty?

1234
00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:22,640
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1235
00:56:22,840 --> 00:56:27,000
Speaker 5: Obviously I love the talent. You know, he's amazing talent

1236
00:56:27,120 --> 00:56:30,280
Speaker 5: and he's essentially their third wide receiver at this point,

1237
00:56:30,320 --> 00:56:32,480
Speaker 5: like you mentioned, which is nice because you don't have

1238
00:56:32,560 --> 00:56:34,560
Speaker 5: to worry about him blocking. Right, He's going to be

1239
00:56:34,600 --> 00:56:37,920
Speaker 5: averaging over seventy five percent routes runt no matter what.

1240
00:56:38,040 --> 00:56:41,120
Speaker 5: So while I do like his floor, like he's a

1241
00:56:41,200 --> 00:56:44,680
Speaker 5: high four player, his stealing is cap just based on

1242
00:56:44,719 --> 00:56:48,160
Speaker 5: the lack of touchdown production. And you know with Tyreek there,

1243
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:51,160
Speaker 5: he's going to see less targets. So I'm not a

1244
00:56:51,200 --> 00:56:53,160
Speaker 5: fan of drafting him in this strange Again, this is

1245
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:55,840
Speaker 5: this range that I was talking about last year with

1246
00:56:55,880 --> 00:56:58,520
Speaker 5: the Robert Kanya and Logan Thomas no offense to the world.

1247
00:56:58,600 --> 00:57:00,680
Speaker 5: Don't get to attach them if you you draft them,

1248
00:57:01,040 --> 00:57:03,800
Speaker 5: because there's gonna be Adult and Schultz, zach Ertz, Dustin

1249
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:06,960
Speaker 5: Knox available very early in the season. We don't know

1250
00:57:06,960 --> 00:57:09,560
Speaker 5: who those guys are, but just be ready to swap

1251
00:57:09,640 --> 00:57:11,799
Speaker 5: out Agastuki if you do have him for somebody else.

1252
00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:13,799
Speaker 1: Don't get too attached if you take him.

1253
00:57:14,280 --> 00:57:17,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, like tight end eleven, that's pretty much gonna be

1254
00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 4: confined to to a best boss back for me.

1255
00:57:20,200 --> 00:57:24,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's not really am I in my redraft plans.

1256
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:24,480
Speaker 1: Uh.

1257
00:57:24,680 --> 00:57:28,640
Speaker 4: Pat Friar Ruth is tight end twelve. J do you

1258
00:57:28,640 --> 00:57:30,240
Speaker 4: think he takes a year two weep? I mean, he

1259
00:57:30,320 --> 00:57:32,960
Speaker 4: had three point eight catches just thirty one point one

1260
00:57:33,040 --> 00:57:35,400
Speaker 4: yards last year. But he did have a good touchdown rate,

1261
00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:38,880
Speaker 4: you know, point four to four per game. But you know,

1262
00:57:38,880 --> 00:57:41,200
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh did pass at the fourth highest rate, you know,

1263
00:57:41,400 --> 00:57:44,000
Speaker 4: So I mean, where are you on Friar Ruths entering

1264
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:44,439
Speaker 4: year two?

1265
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:45,320
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1266
00:57:45,360 --> 00:57:47,600
Speaker 2: I think he had what like a nkeative two yard

1267
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:50,520
Speaker 2: average depth of target or something like. Yeah, Like he

1268
00:57:51,000 --> 00:57:54,000
Speaker 2: was he was the beneficiary of the big bin. Got

1269
00:57:54,000 --> 00:57:55,600
Speaker 2: to get it out as fast as possible, take it

1270
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 2: duck like to the absolute most extreme level we've seen,

1271
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:03,120
Speaker 2: and I mean as long as I could remember, like

1272
00:58:03,280 --> 00:58:06,560
Speaker 2: Deontay Johnson's still going to get his I think the

1273
00:58:06,600 --> 00:58:08,720
Speaker 2: guy that was hurt the most with Big Ben was

1274
00:58:08,800 --> 00:58:12,280
Speaker 2: Chase Claypool. So I actually think the leap that happens

1275
00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:14,760
Speaker 2: is like the leap that we expected from Claypool last

1276
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:17,280
Speaker 2: year that was hindered by a big ban. And I

1277
00:58:17,280 --> 00:58:20,600
Speaker 2: think Friar Muther is really just in a volume situation

1278
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:23,840
Speaker 2: because of having been as his quarterback this year. And

1279
00:58:24,200 --> 00:58:26,600
Speaker 2: there's a chance that like we talked about, like the

1280
00:58:26,640 --> 00:58:29,480
Speaker 2: Falcons quarterback situation. There's a chance that this is is

1281
00:58:29,600 --> 00:58:32,120
Speaker 2: just even though I don't hate Mitch Trubisky, but there

1282
00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:35,920
Speaker 2: is a chance that the efficiency of this passing office

1283
00:58:36,120 --> 00:58:37,160
Speaker 2: is just absolutely future.

1284
00:58:38,000 --> 00:58:41,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, the efficiency could go down even even from Big

1285
00:58:41,040 --> 00:58:43,760
Speaker 4: Ben levels and at least scoring rate wise. Yeah, and

1286
00:58:43,800 --> 00:58:45,600
Speaker 4: he had six hundred and sixty four pass at them

1287
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:47,920
Speaker 4: last year, which is actually crazy when you think about

1288
00:58:48,240 --> 00:58:49,320
Speaker 4: that they have Big Ben.

1289
00:58:49,840 --> 00:58:52,880
Speaker 3: But yeah, Sean, where are you on Friar?

1290
00:58:53,080 --> 00:58:54,800
Speaker 4: I mean, I know, I know you love the talent

1291
00:58:54,800 --> 00:58:57,320
Speaker 4: because I do too, but you know, where are you

1292
00:58:57,400 --> 00:58:57,760
Speaker 4: on him?

1293
00:58:57,840 --> 00:58:58,160
Speaker 3: Ranking?

1294
00:58:58,200 --> 00:59:00,240
Speaker 1: Lise? Yeah, I mean I love it tent.

1295
00:59:00,320 --> 00:59:02,800
Speaker 5: I was writing about him in like week three or

1296
00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:05,160
Speaker 5: four of my tiers, like obviously don't play him, but

1297
00:59:05,600 --> 00:59:07,800
Speaker 5: watch how if Eric E. Bryan were to miss time,

1298
00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:11,240
Speaker 5: like add this guy, because I mean he was overshadowed

1299
00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:14,080
Speaker 5: because of Kyle Pitts, which is understandable. I mean, he's

1300
00:59:14,080 --> 00:59:17,560
Speaker 5: a generational talent. But any other draft class, Firemuth would

1301
00:59:17,560 --> 00:59:19,320
Speaker 5: have been the top tight end and everybody would know

1302
00:59:19,320 --> 00:59:21,280
Speaker 5: about him. So he was a little bit under the radar.

1303
00:59:21,320 --> 00:59:23,000
Speaker 5: But once he got his chance, you know, he was

1304
00:59:23,040 --> 00:59:25,480
Speaker 5: a low end tight end one, so well, I do

1305
00:59:25,640 --> 00:59:27,960
Speaker 5: like him. I think you're spending up here, and I

1306
00:59:28,000 --> 00:59:31,440
Speaker 5: agree with you, guys, I wouldn't say their efficiency is

1307
00:59:31,480 --> 00:59:33,120
Speaker 5: going to go down. It can't get much worse than

1308
00:59:33,160 --> 00:59:36,040
Speaker 5: Big Ben last year. So it's you know, with you

1309
00:59:36,120 --> 00:59:39,840
Speaker 5: got Mitched Trubisky, Kenny Pickett and maybe makes the roof starts.

1310
00:59:39,880 --> 00:59:43,360
Speaker 5: It's a night nervous situation, but the volume will go down.

1311
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:45,240
Speaker 5: I don't think we're going to throw it six hundred

1312
00:59:45,240 --> 00:59:48,240
Speaker 5: and forty four times again this year. So that's definitely

1313
00:59:48,280 --> 00:59:50,760
Speaker 5: going to impact Firemuth, who might be a little bit

1314
00:59:50,800 --> 00:59:55,160
Speaker 5: more touchdown dependent than people won't admit. So you know,

1315
00:59:55,240 --> 00:59:57,360
Speaker 5: he was at tight end ten I want to say,

1316
00:59:57,360 --> 00:59:59,320
Speaker 5: about a month ago, and I was definitely staying away

1317
00:59:59,360 --> 01:00:01,880
Speaker 5: from him. I think around tight end twelve is fair.

1318
01:00:02,000 --> 01:00:04,680
Speaker 5: But this just isn't a range where I'm attacking. I

1319
01:00:04,680 --> 01:00:07,200
Speaker 5: think that the next like six or seven tight ends

1320
01:00:07,200 --> 01:00:09,720
Speaker 5: I have projected about the same. So I just like

1321
01:00:09,800 --> 01:00:11,480
Speaker 5: to get the ones that kind of fall a bit

1322
01:00:11,560 --> 01:00:11,960
Speaker 5: later on.

1323
01:00:12,600 --> 01:00:14,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like prime moves.

1324
01:00:14,040 --> 01:00:15,560
Speaker 4: We might still be a year away because we I

1325
01:00:15,560 --> 01:00:18,960
Speaker 4: think we just need a better situation in Pittsburgh. But

1326
01:00:19,000 --> 01:00:21,160
Speaker 4: he is a guy that, like you know, again, I

1327
01:00:21,160 --> 01:00:22,760
Speaker 4: think he's back in the same spot, like maybe he

1328
01:00:22,760 --> 01:00:24,800
Speaker 4: doesn't get drafted in every league. You know, watch him.

1329
01:00:24,960 --> 01:00:28,800
Speaker 4: He's very talented, and I just but like he's going

1330
01:00:28,840 --> 01:00:30,640
Speaker 4: to rely on touch and he's great in the red zone.

1331
01:00:30,640 --> 01:00:33,680
Speaker 4: But yeah, you know, I it's just I don't I

1332
01:00:33,720 --> 01:00:36,280
Speaker 4: don't think with Kubisky and pick it. And I mean

1333
01:00:36,280 --> 01:00:39,520
Speaker 4: even Mason Rudolph seems to have a shot here that

1334
01:00:39,520 --> 01:00:41,920
Speaker 4: that it's really gonna you know, pay off or be

1335
01:00:41,960 --> 01:00:45,120
Speaker 4: consistent at all. So also probably better best ball target.

1336
01:00:45,360 --> 01:00:48,560
Speaker 4: I would say, all right, a couple more we'll talk about.

1337
01:00:48,600 --> 01:00:50,960
Speaker 4: I want to talk about some some who your favorite,

1338
01:00:51,080 --> 01:00:54,360
Speaker 4: uh tight end is outside the top twelve, but real quick,

1339
01:00:54,400 --> 01:00:56,840
Speaker 4: because you know we got word uh last week.

1340
01:00:56,840 --> 01:00:59,120
Speaker 3: I think it was that Kyle Rudolph. I'm signing with

1341
01:00:59,160 --> 01:00:59,439
Speaker 3: the Bucks.

1342
01:00:59,480 --> 01:00:59,680
Speaker 4: Did you?

1343
01:00:59,680 --> 01:01:01,240
Speaker 3: I just want your opinion.

1344
01:01:01,840 --> 01:01:03,440
Speaker 4: You know, how are you kind of projecting that this

1345
01:01:03,520 --> 01:01:06,040
Speaker 4: great Rudolph situation. I'm seeing Rudolf's trying to creep up,

1346
01:01:06,160 --> 01:01:07,560
Speaker 4: you know in two tight end He's like the tight

1347
01:01:07,600 --> 01:01:08,200
Speaker 4: end twenty four.

1348
01:01:08,280 --> 01:01:11,760
Speaker 3: Nowhere. Where are you on this host situation? I'm nowhere.

1349
01:01:11,800 --> 01:01:14,160
Speaker 2: I'm not projecting it at all. I'm not touching I'm

1350
01:01:14,160 --> 01:01:17,440
Speaker 2: not touching it. With Godwin seemingly ahead of schedule at

1351
01:01:17,440 --> 01:01:20,400
Speaker 2: the starssel gage there and both of their their running

1352
01:01:20,400 --> 01:01:22,080
Speaker 2: backs of good pass catches. We know Lenny could get

1353
01:01:22,080 --> 01:01:24,120
Speaker 2: a lot and the rookie with Torod White could catch

1354
01:01:24,160 --> 01:01:26,160
Speaker 2: the ball as well. Like why even touch that? There's

1355
01:01:26,160 --> 01:01:28,480
Speaker 2: so many other tight ends and like the tight end

1356
01:01:28,800 --> 01:01:32,640
Speaker 2: in the tight end twelve through seventeen range, you don't

1357
01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:34,080
Speaker 2: even need to really think about it unless you're in

1358
01:01:34,160 --> 01:01:37,400
Speaker 2: a two tight end crazy premium even then, like they're

1359
01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:40,280
Speaker 2: probably outside like the tight end twenty four.

1360
01:01:41,160 --> 01:01:44,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, oh are you uh similar? This is a situation.

1361
01:01:45,040 --> 01:01:48,160
Speaker 5: I think in spots you can still target Cambray. I think,

1362
01:01:48,280 --> 01:01:50,840
Speaker 5: you know, he still sometimes goes outside the top twenty

1363
01:01:50,920 --> 01:01:54,200
Speaker 5: five tight ends, so he's worth betting on his upside,

1364
01:01:54,240 --> 01:01:56,840
Speaker 5: but there's still a chance. Later in the season, Gronk

1365
01:01:56,880 --> 01:01:59,520
Speaker 5: decides the unretire, so that kind of lowers their floor

1366
01:02:00,040 --> 01:02:02,680
Speaker 5: to begin with, but they're they're also losing Oj Howard two,

1367
01:02:02,800 --> 01:02:05,120
Speaker 5: so there are you know, a bunch of snaps available.

1368
01:02:05,960 --> 01:02:08,080
Speaker 5: But I think Rudolph will be more of a blocking

1369
01:02:08,080 --> 01:02:09,640
Speaker 5: tight end. I don't know why he would be going

1370
01:02:09,640 --> 01:02:12,360
Speaker 5: inside the top ten. For me, it's still break but

1371
01:02:12,440 --> 01:02:14,200
Speaker 5: I'm a bit lukewarm. I think they just sort of

1372
01:02:14,200 --> 01:02:17,600
Speaker 5: cancel each other out. Plus Julio Jones landing.

1373
01:02:17,320 --> 01:02:19,320
Speaker 2: There kind of hours.

1374
01:02:20,400 --> 01:02:24,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, so it's a situation where I think they have

1375
01:02:24,200 --> 01:02:27,800
Speaker 5: a lower ceiling than I would like to admit. Plus again,

1376
01:02:28,000 --> 01:02:31,400
Speaker 5: Gronk can unretard any time, which have that lume Mirrier

1377
01:02:31,480 --> 01:02:33,520
Speaker 5: head when you have either one of these guys.

1378
01:02:33,840 --> 01:02:36,320
Speaker 2: If I'm tight end Premium and I'm in the last

1379
01:02:36,400 --> 01:02:38,400
Speaker 2: round of my draft and like need a tight end,

1380
01:02:38,520 --> 01:02:39,760
Speaker 2: I'd rather take Johnny Smith.

1381
01:02:41,320 --> 01:02:42,160
Speaker 3: I disagree with that.

1382
01:02:42,240 --> 01:02:44,960
Speaker 4: Who has internet side, right, Yeah, I want to take

1383
01:02:45,000 --> 01:02:46,800
Speaker 4: camp Braid on day cam Bray.

1384
01:02:46,800 --> 01:02:47,480
Speaker 3: Cambray.

1385
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:50,240
Speaker 4: Gambray had plenty red zone targets last year. I would

1386
01:02:50,240 --> 01:02:52,640
Speaker 4: just So my thing about this is I I was

1387
01:02:52,680 --> 01:02:56,200
Speaker 4: actually I thought cam Brad was gonna be like my weight,

1388
01:02:56,400 --> 01:02:58,320
Speaker 4: Like if everyone drafts a tight end and I just

1389
01:02:58,360 --> 01:02:59,800
Speaker 4: I just wait to the last round, like I could

1390
01:02:59,840 --> 01:03:02,160
Speaker 4: even take my kick or defense before, and I was

1391
01:03:02,200 --> 01:03:03,840
Speaker 4: just gonna take cam Bray and that was gonna be

1392
01:03:03,960 --> 01:03:04,840
Speaker 4: like my guy.

1393
01:03:05,320 --> 01:03:07,960
Speaker 3: So I think Rudolph just kind of messes that up, Yes.

1394
01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:10,560
Speaker 4: Exactly, But I do think Brad is gonna see more

1395
01:03:10,600 --> 01:03:12,600
Speaker 4: routes than ru like Brake saw forty two percent per

1396
01:03:12,640 --> 01:03:13,920
Speaker 4: dropback on average last year.

1397
01:03:14,000 --> 01:03:15,640
Speaker 3: Rudolf saw thirty five with the Giants.

1398
01:03:15,840 --> 01:03:17,840
Speaker 4: That's kind of more where I have a projector, like

1399
01:03:17,840 --> 01:03:20,480
Speaker 4: I think Rudolph blocked more breaks still the receiver and

1400
01:03:20,520 --> 01:03:22,800
Speaker 4: you know when you're getting like a twenty red zone

1401
01:03:22,800 --> 01:03:24,720
Speaker 4: targets with Tom Brady, which he could get even more

1402
01:03:24,720 --> 01:03:26,880
Speaker 4: this year because there's no Bronx and it's not like

1403
01:03:27,040 --> 01:03:31,560
Speaker 4: like Julio doesn't catch touchdowns right, So it's like, but like, yeah,

1404
01:03:31,600 --> 01:03:34,480
Speaker 4: I know, actually this ro key though this could be

1405
01:03:34,480 --> 01:03:36,280
Speaker 4: a good touchdown here fan because now he doesn't.

1406
01:03:36,560 --> 01:03:38,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's not getting that like.

1407
01:03:38,000 --> 01:03:40,280
Speaker 4: Number one or even number two coverage if if guy

1408
01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:40,840
Speaker 4: wins in there.

1409
01:03:40,920 --> 01:03:43,360
Speaker 3: So but but I say, yeah.

1410
01:03:43,080 --> 01:03:46,160
Speaker 2: Is there a chance tom Brady finally falls off? Is

1411
01:03:46,200 --> 01:03:47,520
Speaker 2: there a chance? There's no chance?

1412
01:03:47,600 --> 01:03:49,760
Speaker 3: Impossible. Tom Brady's like impossible.

1413
01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:53,439
Speaker 6: He's like he's like he's like the older Derek Jeter,

1414
01:03:53,560 --> 01:03:55,520
Speaker 6: Like it's just he's gonna be good, Like he's never

1415
01:03:55,520 --> 01:03:57,960
Speaker 6: gonna get to that point. Like I mean, I don't

1416
01:03:57,960 --> 01:04:00,360
Speaker 6: think so anyway, I just haven't seen any thing to

1417
01:04:00,440 --> 01:04:02,840
Speaker 6: suggest it. Like I mean, his dude, not only did

1418
01:04:02,840 --> 01:04:04,680
Speaker 6: he ball last year to finished as the QB too,

1419
01:04:04,680 --> 01:04:08,040
Speaker 6: but he did it on like what over seven hundred attempts.

1420
01:04:08,040 --> 01:04:12,240
Speaker 4: Like his arm is he threw. He threw forty seven

1421
01:04:12,280 --> 01:04:14,440
Speaker 4: more passes in the regular season than any other quarterback.

1422
01:04:14,480 --> 01:04:15,160
Speaker 4: I think I think he's that.

1423
01:04:15,360 --> 01:04:17,440
Speaker 5: I don't think the goats didna fall off, but the

1424
01:04:17,480 --> 01:04:18,720
Speaker 5: offensive line falling up.

1425
01:04:18,920 --> 01:04:21,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that is that could issue.

1426
01:04:22,280 --> 01:04:24,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's where we have concerned.

1427
01:04:25,720 --> 01:04:28,480
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, let's finish it up on this star.

1428
01:04:29,040 --> 01:04:31,560
Speaker 4: Who is your favorite tight end outside the top twelve

1429
01:04:31,600 --> 01:04:31,959
Speaker 4: and EP?

1430
01:04:32,520 --> 01:04:32,760
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1431
01:04:32,800 --> 01:04:35,800
Speaker 2: I mean again, like I would take I would probably

1432
01:04:35,800 --> 01:04:39,720
Speaker 2: take all of the four guys go going after going

1433
01:04:39,760 --> 01:04:42,000
Speaker 2: after a second firemouth, I'd probably take all the next

1434
01:04:42,000 --> 01:04:44,200
Speaker 2: four guys after them. I'll just give you my most

1435
01:04:44,280 --> 01:04:47,680
Speaker 2: drafted one. It's been Albert Koe Bonham. I just I trusted,

1436
01:04:47,800 --> 01:04:51,680
Speaker 2: and Russell Wilson. I like his athleticism. Adults didn't even

1437
01:04:51,760 --> 01:04:55,560
Speaker 2: like start I like there there's there's talk adults coming in.

1438
01:04:55,600 --> 01:04:58,680
Speaker 2: He didn't even start training camp active rookie Titans just

1439
01:04:58,720 --> 01:05:03,000
Speaker 2: don't pop like that. Albert has crazy metrics and had

1440
01:05:03,000 --> 01:05:05,880
Speaker 2: had like crazy efficiency and Spurts now gets the most

1441
01:05:05,920 --> 01:05:08,880
Speaker 2: efficient quarterback in history. So gave me Alberto.

1442
01:05:09,720 --> 01:05:12,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like me some Albert Okuwaebmanham as well. Sean,

1443
01:05:12,680 --> 01:05:13,240
Speaker 4: what about you?

1444
01:05:14,120 --> 01:05:16,320
Speaker 5: So since this is outside of the top twelve, this

1445
01:05:16,440 --> 01:05:19,480
Speaker 5: is mostly like best ball. But I like getting Hayden

1446
01:05:19,560 --> 01:05:22,480
Speaker 5: Hurst at tight end twenty six. He was like tight

1447
01:05:22,560 --> 01:05:25,280
Speaker 5: end thirty two for a while, but he's creeping up.

1448
01:05:25,320 --> 01:05:28,200
Speaker 5: I still think he's a great target twenty six, tight

1449
01:05:28,280 --> 01:05:31,120
Speaker 5: end twenty but you know, last year he was stuck

1450
01:05:31,160 --> 01:05:33,640
Speaker 5: behind Kyle Pitts, so you know, he finished tight end

1451
01:05:33,680 --> 01:05:36,880
Speaker 5: thirty eight, didn't really stand a chance there. But he's essentially,

1452
01:05:37,040 --> 01:05:40,680
Speaker 5: you know, taking over the CJ Uzoma role, so he could,

1453
01:05:40,800 --> 01:05:43,320
Speaker 5: you know, have plenty of spiked weeks. Great for best Ball.

1454
01:05:43,720 --> 01:05:45,720
Speaker 5: Not worried about Drew Sample. He's more of a blocking

1455
01:05:45,760 --> 01:05:47,920
Speaker 5: tight end. But you know, Hayden Hurst, we have to

1456
01:05:47,920 --> 01:05:49,920
Speaker 5: remember he's still a first round talent. He's still in

1457
01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:51,880
Speaker 5: the prime of his career. I think he's more talented

1458
01:05:52,280 --> 01:05:54,840
Speaker 5: than Uzoma, and Uzoma was the tight end nineteen last year.

1459
01:05:54,880 --> 01:05:57,400
Speaker 5: So I just love the upside you get by having

1460
01:05:57,440 --> 01:05:59,640
Speaker 5: one of you know, Joe Burrow's probably number four target

1461
01:06:00,680 --> 01:06:02,760
Speaker 5: most week, So love the upside you get with first

1462
01:06:02,760 --> 01:06:03,760
Speaker 5: at tight end twenty six.

1463
01:06:04,440 --> 01:06:07,280
Speaker 4: For me, it's uh. I like what you said about

1464
01:06:07,320 --> 01:06:10,120
Speaker 4: Albert Oh. I love his underlying metrics though he's one

1465
01:06:10,200 --> 01:06:12,000
Speaker 4: of them. I think ARV Smith is another one. But

1466
01:06:12,040 --> 01:06:14,800
Speaker 4: the I'll mention Hunter Henry because I know TJ you

1467
01:06:14,840 --> 01:06:17,640
Speaker 4: talked about like expected touchdowns, he's expected to regress, and

1468
01:06:17,680 --> 01:06:19,640
Speaker 4: I do agree. I think you know, any tight end

1469
01:06:19,680 --> 01:06:21,400
Speaker 4: like you're gonna expect regression when you have what was it,

1470
01:06:21,480 --> 01:06:24,880
Speaker 4: nine touchdowns on seventy five targets. But he was last

1471
01:06:24,960 --> 01:06:27,400
Speaker 4: just tight end six tight end seven points per game.

1472
01:06:27,560 --> 01:06:29,720
Speaker 4: He was seventh among tight ends in red zone targets,

1473
01:06:29,800 --> 01:06:31,680
Speaker 4: and he's never finished lower than tight.

1474
01:06:31,600 --> 01:06:32,960
Speaker 3: Ends seventeen in his career.

1475
01:06:33,000 --> 01:06:37,040
Speaker 4: He's twelve, fourteen, eight, seventeen and then and then six,

1476
01:06:37,400 --> 01:06:39,760
Speaker 4: So like he's going tight end sixteen.

1477
01:06:39,960 --> 01:06:42,080
Speaker 3: I think mac Jones is gonna take a big step forward.

1478
01:06:42,280 --> 01:06:45,360
Speaker 4: New England really doesn't have a clear touchdown guy at

1479
01:06:45,400 --> 01:06:47,920
Speaker 4: wide receiver. I mean they have Parker, they have Myers,

1480
01:06:47,960 --> 01:06:50,600
Speaker 4: none of those guys have really been like touchdown makers.

1481
01:06:50,640 --> 01:06:54,160
Speaker 4: Kendrick Bourne, you know, so I still think Hunter Henry

1482
01:06:54,200 --> 01:06:56,240
Speaker 4: could like be one of those guys to sneak into

1483
01:06:56,280 --> 01:06:57,240
Speaker 4: the top ten.

1484
01:06:57,360 --> 01:06:59,960
Speaker 3: And he's like he's got that volume I mean, he's

1485
01:07:00,080 --> 01:07:02,240
Speaker 3: at those that consistency.

1486
01:07:01,640 --> 01:07:03,640
Speaker 4: That a lot of these other tight ends don't have,

1487
01:07:03,720 --> 01:07:06,040
Speaker 4: and he is he is kind of entering his prime

1488
01:07:06,440 --> 01:07:09,400
Speaker 4: years and in terms of you know the age, he's

1489
01:07:09,440 --> 01:07:11,440
Speaker 4: gonna be twenty eight this year. So I'll go a

1490
01:07:11,480 --> 01:07:14,160
Speaker 4: Hunter Henry, but also like Alberto, also like earth Smith,

1491
01:07:14,240 --> 01:07:16,000
Speaker 4: so kind of kind of what you TJ just like

1492
01:07:16,280 --> 01:07:19,439
Speaker 4: right after you know that that top twelve, I think

1493
01:07:19,560 --> 01:07:21,280
Speaker 4: you could make a case for just as many of

1494
01:07:21,280 --> 01:07:22,040
Speaker 4: those guys.

1495
01:07:22,640 --> 01:07:25,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, Patriots are weird, Like everyone like snickers at Joe

1496
01:07:25,400 --> 01:07:28,040
Speaker 2: Judge and Matt Patricia, but like the Patriots were the

1497
01:07:27,760 --> 01:07:31,520
Speaker 2: they were last in neutral game script passer rate last year,

1498
01:07:31,520 --> 01:07:34,000
Speaker 2: and both Joe Judge and Matt Patricia like people say, like, oh,

1499
01:07:34,000 --> 01:07:37,040
Speaker 2: Matt Patricia's defensive, like run heavy. His teams were always

1500
01:07:37,080 --> 01:07:39,080
Speaker 2: like middle of the pack in neutral passing rates. So

1501
01:07:39,160 --> 01:07:41,840
Speaker 2: like if they bring that to New England and Mac

1502
01:07:41,920 --> 01:07:43,840
Speaker 2: Jones does take a leap. This is a team that

1503
01:07:43,920 --> 01:07:45,800
Speaker 2: was six and scoring last year, and everyone's acts like

1504
01:07:45,800 --> 01:07:48,200
Speaker 2: there's just no offensive upside, like they could they could

1505
01:07:48,240 --> 01:07:50,280
Speaker 2: score some points, they could be decent. I mean, I

1506
01:07:50,320 --> 01:07:53,160
Speaker 2: know they're like it's it's super ambiguous, but that's kind

1507
01:07:53,160 --> 01:07:55,200
Speaker 2: of good for us, right, Yeah, exactly.

1508
01:07:55,240 --> 01:07:56,640
Speaker 4: It's like and it's you know, it's this is not

1509
01:07:56,680 --> 01:07:59,160
Speaker 4: a situation where it's like Hyra Haigby jumped into like

1510
01:07:59,200 --> 01:08:01,280
Speaker 4: the top six and then taking him as tight end six.

1511
01:08:01,360 --> 01:08:01,960
Speaker 3: Next here's all.

1512
01:08:01,920 --> 01:08:03,600
Speaker 4: Right, Hunter Henry was tight end six and you get

1513
01:08:03,640 --> 01:08:06,520
Speaker 4: him at sixteen. It's like, I'll take the plunge at

1514
01:08:06,560 --> 01:08:09,240
Speaker 4: that spot, all right, So yeah, let's go and wrap

1515
01:08:09,280 --> 01:08:12,240
Speaker 4: it up. TJ really appreciate you coming on and doing this,

1516
01:08:12,320 --> 01:08:17,200
Speaker 4: getting the DFS MVP og duo back together. Tell everybody

1517
01:08:17,200 --> 01:08:18,920
Speaker 4: what you're up to and where they can find you.

1518
01:08:19,439 --> 01:08:21,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, all my stuff if you're looking at Twitter, at

1519
01:08:21,720 --> 01:08:24,720
Speaker 2: teacher Hernandoz everything else is at four from four dot com.

1520
01:08:25,720 --> 01:08:28,000
Speaker 2: Even though you guys are just getting in the flow

1521
01:08:28,040 --> 01:08:30,519
Speaker 2: of redraft, in terms of the listeners, this is actually

1522
01:08:30,520 --> 01:08:32,760
Speaker 2: where I transition to DFS. I've been heavy in the

1523
01:08:32,760 --> 01:08:36,080
Speaker 2: Best Ball streets, but check out DFS MVP first episodes

1524
01:08:36,160 --> 01:08:38,759
Speaker 2: launching this week. Still be talking a ton about redraft,

1525
01:08:38,880 --> 01:08:42,200
Speaker 2: especially best Ball. But if you're looking for DFS, whether

1526
01:08:42,240 --> 01:08:45,080
Speaker 2: it be preseason or just getting ready for the regular season,

1527
01:08:45,360 --> 01:08:47,720
Speaker 2: check out my Twitter, check out four for four all.

1528
01:08:47,720 --> 01:08:50,040
Speaker 4: Right, and you can find Sean on Twitter at the

1529
01:08:50,120 --> 01:08:54,519
Speaker 4: Underscore Odds Maker, you can find me at Raybond, and

1530
01:08:54,600 --> 01:08:56,320
Speaker 4: you can find us at those same handles in the

1531
01:08:56,320 --> 01:08:59,760
Speaker 4: free award winning Action Network app all too. Be sure

1532
01:08:59,760 --> 01:09:04,439
Speaker 4: to check actionnetwork dot com for our season long rankings,

1533
01:09:04,479 --> 01:09:07,080
Speaker 4: and obviously, once we get into the season, we'll have

1534
01:09:07,080 --> 01:09:11,519
Speaker 4: our weekly rankings there as well. Until next episode, Let's

1535
01:09:11,640 --> 01:09:18,000
Speaker 4: get dish money.