WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: May 27, 2025 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.600 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.440 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.239 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.680 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:33.919 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:37.720 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Roosevelt Barman of Bernstein 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:40.920 Private Wealth Management, writing, we anticipate weak US growth in 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:44.400 twenty five of aboutzero point five percent, given the current 0:00:44.479 --> 0:00:48.240 higher cost of capital and the uncertainty around tariffs. Roosevelt 0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:50.000 joins us now for more. Rizved, good morning, it's good 0:00:50.000 --> 0:00:50.280 to see you. 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:51.200 Good morning, John Morriying. 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:53.320 Thank you for being kit step down in US growth 0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:56.280 from around three percent too point five. Can you walk 0:00:56.320 --> 0:00:58.800 us through how our price bond markets are at the 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:01.520 moment For a lot of growth in the US at 0:01:01.600 --> 0:01:03.520 least of zero point five percent, I. 0:01:03.520 --> 0:01:05.160 Would argue not very well priced at all. 0:01:05.200 --> 0:01:07.360 I mean, I think when we look at where growth 0:01:07.440 --> 0:01:09.360 is likely to move over the next couple. 0:01:09.080 --> 0:01:11.520 Of months, and really without policy support. 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:14.040 You know, we're talking about the tax bill not quite 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:17.080 there yet, and when you think from a monetary policy standpoint, 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:19.440 the Fed not ready to cut because we haven't seen 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:22.520 enough progress on the inflation front, You're likely to see 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:26.160 some weaker labor and consumer data over that time that 0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:29.160 eventually pushes yields lower. I think the reason we haven't 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:31.920 seen that yet is certainly that policy volatility when you 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:35.000 think about some of the potential legal challenges there placing 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:39.080 the FED chair. Thankfully that rhetoric has pulled back, but 0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:41.959 that's certainly kept yields, I think, elevated above levels that 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:44.520 you would anticipate given the growth outlook going forward. 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:47.360 What are your assumptions on inflation with the growth outlook 0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:48.720 you're expecting, So, I. 0:01:48.720 --> 0:01:51.720 Mean our assumptions are inflation kind of remains elevated over 0:01:51.760 --> 0:01:54.200 the short term, but that when you look more six 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:56.680 to twelve months out, that you don't have the kind 0:01:56.680 --> 0:01:59.360 of high inflation or even the stagflation that's talked about 0:01:59.360 --> 0:02:01.920 a lot. I think from our perspective, the reason that 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:04.200 so many people are worried about it's understandable you think 0:02:04.200 --> 0:02:07.360 about tariffs pushing at prices, but from our perspective, that 0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:09.440 only happens if consumers can meet. 0:02:09.280 --> 0:02:10.239 The higher prices. 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:13.160 And you know, I would challenge the consensus view that 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:16.840 we've seen this dichotomy of soft data has been really 0:02:16.880 --> 0:02:19.320 weak and that the hard data is still come in fine. 0:02:19.360 --> 0:02:20.919 When you kind of look at some of the high 0:02:21.000 --> 0:02:25.320 frequency consumption data, you know, credit card transactions, the ticket 0:02:25.360 --> 0:02:28.320 sizes associated with them, it's shown some real weakness and 0:02:28.360 --> 0:02:30.400 the consumer over the past couple of months, we're seeing 0:02:30.400 --> 0:02:32.800 that weakness in labor demand as well. 0:02:32.840 --> 0:02:34.360 When you look at online job. 0:02:34.200 --> 0:02:37.520 Hostings the salaries associated with them, they're both at fifteenth 0:02:37.560 --> 0:02:40.800 month lows. You look at Atlanta FED wage data that's 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:43.080 spread between those that are staying in their job and 0:02:43.120 --> 0:02:44.160 those that are leaving their job. 0:02:44.280 --> 0:02:45.720 It's just absolutely collapse. 0:02:45.880 --> 0:02:49.040 So you're not getting any premium for leaving your job. 0:02:49.160 --> 0:02:52.200 The kind of the leverage is shifted from the employee 0:02:52.240 --> 0:02:55.720 back to the employer. That speaks the lower wages going forward, 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:59.960 lower consumption consumers not meeting those higher tariff induced prices. 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:01.640 So this morning, it seems like there are a couple 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:04.520 of schools of thought among investors who come on the show. 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:07.880 You've got Steve Shivverrode saying that actually he sees equities 0:03:07.880 --> 0:03:09.840 as a better bet than bonds right now because he 0:03:09.880 --> 0:03:12.800 does think that growth is going to reignite later this year. 0:03:13.160 --> 0:03:14.000 It sounds like, and. 0:03:14.000 --> 0:03:16.960 Correct me if I'm wrong, you actually prefer bonds later 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:20.119 this year to equities if you do see growth meaningfully 0:03:20.160 --> 0:03:23.120 slowing and sending people back to what has been, and 0:03:23.160 --> 0:03:25.360 maybe we'll continue to be a haven asset. 0:03:25.600 --> 0:03:27.720 I actually think, Lisa, there's a pathway for both to 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:29.280 kind of do better TNS the end of the year. 0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:32.400 So to your point, once we have some slowing growth 0:03:32.480 --> 0:03:34.519 over the near term, I think that, and once we 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:38.400 have policy kind of more sort of knowns about what 0:03:38.440 --> 0:03:40.600 the tax bill looks like, then you have the pathway 0:03:40.680 --> 0:03:41.840 cleared for bonds to do well. 0:03:42.080 --> 0:03:43.560 I think equities you're going. 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:45.680 To take some type of stimulus and support, and that's 0:03:45.680 --> 0:03:47.600 more likely to be I think from the Fed than 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:50.560 necessarily the tax bill. And that's more of a kind 0:03:50.560 --> 0:03:52.720 of fall and winter story where the Fed actually has 0:03:52.760 --> 0:03:55.240 a green light to cut from both the inflation standpoint 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:57.360 and the weakened economic data. 0:03:57.440 --> 0:04:00.360 So we were talking about this with Robert Sken just 0:04:00.560 --> 0:04:03.400 how quickly we can see the negativity of bleed into 0:04:03.480 --> 0:04:06.120 data that has been very distorted by front loading and 0:04:06.160 --> 0:04:09.240 a whole host of other factors before people start to 0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:11.760 question this theory of a rolling over in an economy 0:04:11.800 --> 0:04:14.960 that has been incredibly resilient, with companies adapting and adjusting 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:17.320 and figuring out ways to keep on keeping on. 0:04:17.880 --> 0:04:19.800 Well, I think we're starting to see some of that. 0:04:19.920 --> 0:04:22.240 You know, as I mentioned, from both the consumer and 0:04:22.320 --> 0:04:25.640 labor standpoint, and as people are still concerned about their 0:04:25.720 --> 0:04:28.240 job prospects going forward, they're likely to pull back on 0:04:28.240 --> 0:04:31.360 their consumption. That's typically what we've seen in history, even 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:34.200 if we haven't observed so much of that in retail sales, 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:35.960 there's been some weakness there, and again I think the 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:39.760 high frequency data have shown that consumers actually are pulling 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:42.400 back and are not as quite as resilient as maybe 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:44.320 the top line figures have suggested. 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:47.200 So there's also this theory underpitting what you're talking about, 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:49.400 which is that eventually money will go back into the 0:04:49.480 --> 0:04:53.400 US and US assets that have traditionally been havens. Why 0:04:53.440 --> 0:04:55.479 do you have that conviction to time where people are 0:04:55.520 --> 0:04:57.800 selling the dollar and you are seeing a move out 0:04:57.839 --> 0:05:01.880 of US assets, particularly among Youruropean and Canadian investment firms. 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:04.440 Well, I think there's I think we can separate, you know, 0:05:04.520 --> 0:05:06.440 kind of fixed income and equities for a moment. So 0:05:06.600 --> 0:05:09.599 if you think about fixed income, understandably, there's been a 0:05:09.640 --> 0:05:12.880 premium there because of the policy volatility, so you may 0:05:12.920 --> 0:05:15.120 not see the size of the rally in bonds that 0:05:15.120 --> 0:05:18.440 you would normally anticipate with slower US and global growth. 0:05:18.760 --> 0:05:21.359 I think equities from a long term perspective, that is 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:24.960 a tougher short because you're not just taking a geographic position, 0:05:25.040 --> 0:05:27.880 you're taking a sector position as well. Given the US 0:05:27.960 --> 0:05:31.000 leadership and technology, so you know, we talked to our 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:33.640 clients and saying, hey, do you want to be short 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:36.760 technology for a five to ten year period. The answer 0:05:36.760 --> 0:05:39.719 is a resounding no, understandably. So I think that is 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:42.040 where we have confidence that, yes, there is a risk 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:45.480 premium for US assets that was not there before because 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:49.000 of the trade and monetary policy volatility. But the idea 0:05:49.000 --> 0:05:52.960 that we have this mass divestment into other options, you know, 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:55.039 that's not our view at all, and I think that's 0:05:55.240 --> 0:05:57.520 you know, I think number one, the depth and size 0:05:57.680 --> 0:06:00.400 of the US bond market, and number two, the LEADLeadership 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:03.560 and Technology says that both US fixed income and equities 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:06.560 will be attractive going forward, just not as attractive as before. 0:06:06.680 --> 0:06:08.200 What do you think that don't a witness speaks to? 0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:08.479 Then? 0:06:08.640 --> 0:06:10.560 What do you think is ultimately behind it over the 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:11.240 past few months? 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:12.479 Oh, I mean, I think in terms of the dollar 0:06:12.520 --> 0:06:16.000 weakness for sure, that is where you can express more 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:19.320 of that concern about policy volatility. And if you're thinking 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:22.240 when you look at the dollar, it's undervalued over the 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:25.920 short term kind of based on nominal interest rate differentials, 0:06:26.240 --> 0:06:28.520 but for longer term measures you could argue that it's 0:06:28.560 --> 0:06:30.800 been overvalued for a while. So I think it's a 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:35.080 combination of long term overvaluation short term undervaluation, and you 0:06:35.160 --> 0:06:37.080 end up with some dollar weakness. I think the other 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:39.400 part of it, too, is that the Fed, when you 0:06:39.440 --> 0:06:43.120 think about the range of outcomes for FED policy, you're 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:45.479 more waiting for them to cut. You don't have the 0:06:45.560 --> 0:06:47.760 other side of the distribution where you're saying, oh, could 0:06:47.760 --> 0:06:50.080 there be price pressures that would have hikes that would 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:53.359 really widen the interest rate gaps enough to overcome the 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:56.040 policy volatility, So you end up with the dollar weakness 0:06:56.080 --> 0:06:56.920 that we're seeing right now. 0:06:57.000 --> 0:06:58.920 They've certainly taken those off the tank. When that's for 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:00.880 show rich about this was great in staid against them. 0:07:00.960 --> 0:07:02.480 I'm going to see you. Thank you, sir, RISA vam 0:07:02.520 --> 0:07:15.680 Palm and the Burnstain Private Wealth Management. To extend the conversation, 0:07:15.800 --> 0:07:18.840 Terry Hines and Pangaea policy, Terry, welcome back to the program, Sir. 0:07:19.200 --> 0:07:23.120 Why have the Europeans found themselves in such a difficult spot. 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:26.360 There's a couple of reasons, John. One is just the 0:07:26.480 --> 0:07:30.440 nature of their federation. Those of you who are American 0:07:30.520 --> 0:07:34.080 history buffs consider the EU much closer to the Articles 0:07:34.120 --> 0:07:38.120 of Confederation. Where As one of your correspondents said, you know, 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:41.640 every major decision has to go back and be played 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:44.600 through each of the twenty seven member countries, so you know, 0:07:44.640 --> 0:07:48.280 the structures. The structure is not great. There's also tensions 0:07:48.320 --> 0:07:51.640 between the European Commission kind of the supremos and the 0:07:51.640 --> 0:07:55.160 Burley Mountain, Brussels and the twenty seven member nations. So 0:07:55.240 --> 0:07:58.240 that makes for a very complicated group, you know, and 0:07:58.400 --> 0:08:01.040 just about every other negotiation and that the United States 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:04.240 is pursuing, whether or whether it be with the UK, 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:06.760 whether it be with India, whether it be with Japan, 0:08:06.960 --> 0:08:09.679 let's say, or even China. You know who you're dealing 0:08:09.720 --> 0:08:11.240 with and you know what kind of response you're going 0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:13.080 to get. So this is uniquely difficult. 0:08:13.200 --> 0:08:13.480 Terry. 0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:15.720 Do we have an understanding of better understanding. 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:17.760 After this weekend of what the ultimate goals are with 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:21.000 these negotiations, what the desired outcome looks like. 0:08:22.360 --> 0:08:24.400 On the EU? I don't think we do, but. 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:26.520 I would. 0:08:27.040 --> 0:08:29.600 My view of this is that you know, Ludnick and 0:08:29.640 --> 0:08:32.520 his people at Commerce had gone out before even before 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:38.280 the April second date and had given various countries wish 0:08:38.320 --> 0:08:41.040 lists of things that they wanted. So whether or not 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:44.600 somebody in Burllymont got a list, I think is beside 0:08:44.640 --> 0:08:46.520 the point, because a lot of the member countries did, 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:49.720 almost certainly Germany did, France did. I mean, there's all 0:08:49.760 --> 0:08:53.000 the main countries in the European Union know what the 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:56.240 United States ask is generally, but the EU as a 0:08:56.280 --> 0:08:59.120 whole has to get down to it, and the scheme 0:08:59.160 --> 0:09:03.400 of the EC is always to delay, delay, delay, as 0:09:03.440 --> 0:09:06.640 any British Prime minister in the last ten years well knows. 0:09:06.960 --> 0:09:09.160 Do we get a sense that the one big beautiful bill, 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:12.200 and the fact that it did pass in Congress gave 0:09:12.320 --> 0:09:16.040 ammunition to the administration to focus back on trade, and 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:18.679 we can expect a lot more headlines to be made 0:09:18.760 --> 0:09:21.199 about trade over the next few weeks. 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:23.720 Well, I think they've been doing both, but I think 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:26.600 there's probably a lot more headlines on trade to be had, 0:09:26.679 --> 0:09:32.839 simply because you know, the Senate negotiations on the tax 0:09:32.880 --> 0:09:35.719 bill are kind of, you know, much more in the can. 0:09:35.760 --> 0:09:36.600 They're much more baked. 0:09:36.600 --> 0:09:40.160 Everybody knows what they are. But the expectation is that 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:42.199 over the next month you're going to see a lot 0:09:42.200 --> 0:09:44.880 of those major deals, and you know, one of those 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:49.199 is India, where the Indians have been have said quite 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:52.560 quite publicly that they expect a deal to be done 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:56.360 in the first phase by July ninth, with eighteen more 0:09:56.400 --> 0:09:59.640 sectors by October. You know, whether or not the United 0:09:59.679 --> 0:10:04.199 States agrees with all those that framework or not, as 0:10:04.240 --> 0:10:07.720 another thing, I doubt that they hugely disagree with it, 0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:10.959 but there's a lot of optimism coming from India, and 0:10:11.080 --> 0:10:13.520 you know, I've always thought that's exactly how you have 0:10:13.559 --> 0:10:15.960 to read what's going on with Apple is through the 0:10:16.000 --> 0:10:19.360 Indian trade negotiations, not as anything that's been going on 0:10:19.440 --> 0:10:20.119 with Apple. 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:21.400 And Serry just build on that. What do you mean 0:10:21.440 --> 0:10:21.840 by that? 0:10:23.360 --> 0:10:25.800 What I mean is that people tend to look at 0:10:25.840 --> 0:10:27.959 you know, Look, I'm not an Apple analyst. Okay, I'm 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:30.120 not saying buy or sell Apple. What I am saying 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:32.960 is that the markets tend to look at Apple or 0:10:33.000 --> 0:10:35.240 you know, Tesla or you know whatever in a very 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:38.520 siloed sort of way. What's going on. Trump's mad at them, 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:41.440 Trump loves them. Whatever it is what's going on here? 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:44.840 I almost certainly I think this is instinct. But you know, 0:10:44.920 --> 0:10:49.079 there's US India negotiations way down the track. India is 0:10:49.120 --> 0:10:55.080 a major beneficiary of offshoring from China, in this case 0:10:55.480 --> 0:11:00.160 iPhones to India. Trump likes to shake up negotiations. Is 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:03.840 It's a standard negotiating tactic, not just for him. And 0:11:04.040 --> 0:11:05.960 the shake up. Part of the shakeup is, well, I'll 0:11:05.960 --> 0:11:08.800 introduce something new into the mix. Let me remind you, 0:11:08.880 --> 0:11:13.040 India that you're the beneficiaries of the United States policies here. 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:15.120 So I'm going to put that one on the table too, 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:19.959 and then we'll figure out where our negotiations go from there. 0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:23.199 So you know, I'm just looking at Apple as a 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:26.600 bargaining chip in the larger trade negotiations with India. 0:11:26.600 --> 0:11:29.240 Frankly, Henry, there's also a foreign policy rinko in a 0:11:29.320 --> 0:11:32.080 mix as well, the threat of secondary sanctions against Russia 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:35.720 and what that could mean for India, for China. How's 0:11:35.760 --> 0:11:37.600 that going to plan in the next few weeks and months. 0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:41.280 You know, I think it matters. It matters in the 0:11:41.760 --> 0:11:44.760 U SEU negotiations. To John, it matters greatly because what 0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:46.800 you're going to have is a situation where you know, 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:49.240 this is a classic watch what they do, watch not 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:52.839 what they say. The European Union heaped a lot of 0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:56.640 scoring on the Trump administration and Trump personally and Vice 0:11:56.679 --> 0:12:01.520 President Advanced personally for for their remarks over the winter, 0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:05.240 and they're going in position on the Ukraine. But now 0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:11.640 we're in a situation where the geopolitics are different and 0:12:11.800 --> 0:12:15.079 the United States as well as the European Union are 0:12:15.120 --> 0:12:18.679 taking the shackles off the use of weapons that are 0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:22.520 provided to Ukraine by all of those countries. You know, 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:24.640 what you're going to see in the successing of weeks, 0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:28.480 I think is a geopolitical ramp up that's designed not 0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:31.680 just to put more pressure on Russia, but more importantly 0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:35.839 put more geopolitical pressure on China to get their client 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:38.559 state Russia to the table. So this is yet another 0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:41.960 example where the geopolitics is driving the economic pency. 0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:44.400 Terry, it's got to hear from you as always, smart 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:57.520 Terry Hines there of Panchaea policy joining us now the 0:12:57.520 --> 0:13:00.680 president of the New York Stock Exchange, then it's going 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:01.080 to see you. 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:02.400 Great to be here. 0:13:02.600 --> 0:13:05.240 Before we get to these trading debuts and maybe some 0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:07.200 IPOs coming through. I just want to talk to you 0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:09.480 about the amount of volume that's come through your business 0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:12.400 through the year so far. Just walk us through it. 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:15.600 Yeah, if I look back on this year, it's been 0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:19.360 a year unlike any other, both from the demands on 0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:23.679 our system and the liquidity in our system manifesting itself 0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:26.439 in trading volumes. Now, if you look at that period 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:31.880 between Liberation Day and the pause, we saw records in 0:13:31.960 --> 0:13:36.400 terms of messaging traffic hitting around one point two trillion 0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:40.960 incoming order messages that we processed with thirty microseconds median 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:45.160 response time on two of those days. And then if 0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:49.120 you look at the amount of transactions that occurred on 0:13:49.160 --> 0:13:52.160 our platform and the equity markets as a whole. I mean, 0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:58.320 in average days around sixteen billion trades, and now during 0:13:58.360 --> 0:13:59.800 that period we had thirty billion. 0:14:00.240 --> 0:14:01.679 It's just unprecedented. 0:14:02.000 --> 0:14:05.680 It's more than two times the amount of volume both 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:11.120 from execution, from actual trades as well as from messaging 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.480 then we saw during COVID. Now you remember how active 0:14:14.679 --> 0:14:18.880 COVID was. There's been a variety of reasons why we've 0:14:18.920 --> 0:14:19.360 seen that. 0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:21.600 I think, do you think it's something we take for 0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:24.360 grants it the infrastructure holding gump and the way it 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:24.800 has done. 0:14:24.880 --> 0:14:28.880 I think it's something that we at the NYS spend 0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:33.160 a tremendous amount of time thinking about and planning for. 0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:36.040 We hope you take it for granted, because that means 0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:38.240 we're doing our job. Our job is to ensure that 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:43.080 the markets are open and efficient so you can manage risk, 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:48.160 particularly during those incredibly uncertain times like we saw in April. 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:50.760 We saw an incredible amount of volume on the seconding 0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:55.320 markets of existing companies that have existing shares. This was 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:59.000 supposed to be the year of IPOs, of deals, of 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:01.720 all sorts of capital markets activity. 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:03.400 Where are we in that? 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:05.720 Are we seeing a revival of that as people get 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:08.640 a little bit more confidence around trade or is it 0:15:08.720 --> 0:15:10.200 still really kind of being iced. 0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:13.160 Yeah, so initially this year when I was with you 0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:16.760 both in Davos, I was incredibly excited. You know, I 0:15:16.840 --> 0:15:20.720 still am really excited about the IPO markets. I think 0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:26.640 Mountain and Hinge last week going and doing so incredibly well, 0:15:26.680 --> 0:15:30.040 both pricing at the high end of the range, both 0:15:30.120 --> 0:15:33.840 up significantly over their IPO prices just in their first 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:38.520 two days of trading. Are the sign of what I 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:41.120 was talking about with you both in Davos, and that 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:45.040 there's a tremendous amount of demand for new issuance in 0:15:45.080 --> 0:15:48.320 the market. Portfolio managers I talk to, long only funds 0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:52.240 I talked to they want new issues in the market. 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:55.720 So I think you're starting to see these companies now 0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:58.920 come to market now that the vis has come back 0:15:58.960 --> 0:16:04.080 to earth, back to that twenty ish level, and you're 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:07.840 not seeing as much of the intra day swings as 0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:08.400 a result. 0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:10.120 Can you talked about Davos. 0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:12.400 I'm just wondering the enthusiasm you had. 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:13.480 Then, can you. 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:16.840 Give a sense of how much lower the volume of 0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:19.320 IPOs or deals you expect to be for the remainder 0:16:19.360 --> 0:16:23.040 of this year now, then, say in January, based on 0:16:23.080 --> 0:16:26.480 the uncertainty, and based on what hasn't gotten done over 0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:27.200 the first half the. 0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:30.560 Year, I'm actually still optimistic that the same amount. 0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:33.080 Of IPOs will go. It's just shifted out. 0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:35.160 If I look in the case of Mountain and Hinge, 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:38.480 they were targeting early April. You've seen stub Hub flip, 0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:40.960 You've seen clarin a flip Circle went on the road 0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:45.320 this morning, which is an IPO. We're incredibly excited about 0:16:45.360 --> 0:16:49.000 happening just next week. So I think you're starting to 0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:54.760 see that group of companies that was public market ready 0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:56.200 get out of the gates. 0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:57.520 So I'm optimistic. 0:16:57.560 --> 0:17:00.280 I'm optimistic that the second half of this shar year 0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:03.440 is going to be when you start to see these 0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:05.600 bigger names come to market. 0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:08.199 Do we need clarity on the policies in Washington first, 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:10.840 and how disruptive has that been for your business? I 0:17:10.880 --> 0:17:14.320 remember the President on the stock exchange floor alongside you. 0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:16.720 This is not what we all expected. This has been 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:18.560 chaotic for a lot of people. Do we need some 0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:21.159 clarity on those issues to see the Canada plant and 0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:22.120 the way that you expect. 0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:23.680 So I think there's just. 0:17:23.640 --> 0:17:26.560 Been some uncertainty in the market. You can you can't 0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:29.200 argue that if you're a good company, though, if you're 0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:34.040 a company that has made the plans to go public, 0:17:34.200 --> 0:17:39.399 which many have their public company ready, I think they 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:42.760 can go in any market, particularly when you look at 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:47.119 certain sectors. Crypto is certainly a sector where there's a 0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:51.360 lot of optimism. Still, some companies are still trying to 0:17:51.440 --> 0:17:56.040 weigh the benefits or the issues associated with tariffs, and 0:17:56.200 --> 0:17:59.040 that's going to be a moveable feast throughout the course 0:17:59.119 --> 0:17:59.600 of the year. 0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:03.040 Everyone around this table is incredibly pro America. You and 0:18:03.119 --> 0:18:05.600 I were on a panel together. You mentioned Davos, and 0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:09.280 we've been talking about American exceptionalism, and then all of 0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:12.240 a sudden people are talking about peak American exceptionalism and 0:18:12.280 --> 0:18:13.560 the rest of the world. Can I ever find a 0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:15.879 word from you on that the future of America and 0:18:15.920 --> 0:18:17.040 American exceptionalism. 0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:20.439 There's nothing that beats our capital markets. There's no substitute 0:18:20.440 --> 0:18:24.080 for our capital markets. They're the deepest, most liquid in 0:18:24.200 --> 0:18:27.479 the world. They continue to be the envy of a world. 0:18:27.960 --> 0:18:32.040 The geopolitical situation, though, is a conversation. 0:18:32.480 --> 0:18:33.840 I think that's where I'll leave it. 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:36.719 That's a diplomatic way of putting bit Lynn. It's good 0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:39.679 to see you. Good to see Lynn Martin. There the 0:18:39.800 --> 0:18:52.440 president of the New York Stock Exchange. Amandalaline of a 0:18:52.440 --> 0:18:54.240 black Rock Join just around a table, Amanda, good to 0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:55.040 see you, Good morning. 0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:55.600 Thank you for having me. 0:18:55.680 --> 0:18:58.520 You've been focusing on the interplay between margins and the 0:18:58.560 --> 0:19:00.720 labor market. Let's get an update. Where are we now? 0:19:00.920 --> 0:19:03.760 Yeah, I think Neil Cashcari said it well to your 0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:06.600 colleagues over in Asia. There time is of the essence here. 0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:08.639 Companies are in a bit of a weight and see mode. 0:19:08.720 --> 0:19:10.359 This is something that's been coming up in our client 0:19:10.400 --> 0:19:13.719 conversations over the past few weeks, including some conferences. Corporates 0:19:13.720 --> 0:19:15.520 are signaling that they're in a weight and see mode. 0:19:15.560 --> 0:19:18.080 But there's an expiration date on that weight and see 0:19:18.080 --> 0:19:20.080 and I think that's really what we're focusing on. This 0:19:20.160 --> 0:19:22.560 really just hinges on the labor market. You heard Stephanie 0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:25.240 say consumers can spend so long as their employment situation 0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:28.159 is solid. It's really that interplay between margins and the 0:19:28.240 --> 0:19:29.960 layoff rate that I think is going to determine the 0:19:30.000 --> 0:19:30.600 path from here. 0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:31.880 So when's the expiration date? 0:19:32.200 --> 0:19:36.080 Well, I think the FED is almost laying the groundwork 0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:39.679 for focusing the market on September and even going forward 0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:41.399 from that, I think if we can get through the 0:19:41.400 --> 0:19:44.560 next earning season. This earning season, I think positively surprised. 0:19:44.720 --> 0:19:46.280 If we can get through the next earning season, I 0:19:46.320 --> 0:19:48.399 think that will provide some clarity. But I kind of 0:19:48.400 --> 0:19:49.040